17 July [17Jul15 - 1.15MB]
Transcription
17 July [17Jul15 - 1.15MB]
Agri-Weekly 17 July 2015 [email protected] https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za Beef market trends (Graph 1) Graph 1: Beef price trends International: (SA c/kg) US imported beef prices continued to post good 3,860 gains on the back of tight supplies and stronger 3,600 demand. Market activity on imports was reportedly moderate with prices trending 3,340 moderate to sharply higher. 3,080 At wholesale level, US beef prices continued 2,820 their downward slide with the choice category falling by 3% w/w and 6% y/y at US$234.85/cwt. 2,560 The select beef prices fell by 2.9% w/w and 2,300 4.7% y/y to close at US$232.12/cwt. 2,040 In the cattle market, the CME feeder index was a bit firmer at US$223.03/cwt which is up 4% y/y. 1,780 The weekly cattle slaughter number came in at 1,520 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 27-Mar-15 31-Jul-15 538,000 head, down 2.4% w/w and 7.9% y/y. Class A Contract The year to date slaughter reached 15.36m Class C Weaner calf head, down by 7.9% y/y. NZ Cow import parity,D/bn * last two data points are preliminary In Australia, cattle prices maintained a firmer trend with the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) finishing the week at AU$5.41/kg cwt, which is 62% higher compared to the corresponding period last year. The United State Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July 2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report showed a reduced estimate of the 2015 annual US beef production compared June, but the 2016 forecast came in higher than last month. Beef production for 2015 was lowered as feedlot cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. In addition, relatively good forage conditions and higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of feedlot placements until later in 2015, reducing available supplies of feedlot cattle for slaughter in late 2015. However, these large cattle placements will lead to increased availability of marketed cattle and slaughter in 2016. Domestic: Beef prices maintained a sideways trend across most categories with the exception of Class Cs which were the biggest gainers due to limited supplies. Weekly Class C beef prices advanced by 1.2% from last week at R27.43 per kg, which is 14% higher y/y. Class A beef prices were marginally up by 0.4% w/w and 5.6% y/y at R34.41 per kg. Contract Class A beef prices gained 0.9% w/w and 5% y/y to close at R33.91 per kg. Following a downward trend over the past few weeks due to weak demand, hide prices rebounded slightly and averaged R18.03 per kg for the week. In the weaner market, this segment seems to be battling with supplies at the moment. This together with strong demand saw weekly weaner calf prices increasing by 1.2% w/w and 10.6% y/y at R20.34 per kg live weight. OUTLOOK Weather will be critical in the next few months leading to summer. Early rains should boost soil moisture resulting in rapid pasture regrowth thereby encouraging farmers to hold on to their cattle and reducing availability for the market, which is price supportive. Grazing conditions are currently very poor. FNB Agri-Weekly Page 2 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Graph 1b: Average hide prices per kg Graph 1a: Weekly commercial cattle slaughter trends (head) 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 20.0 12,000 10,000 17.0 8,000 14.0 6,000 4,000 11.0 2,000 8.0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Source: RMMA Mutton market trends (Graph 2) Graph 2: Mutton price trends (SA c/kg) International: In Australia, prices were mixed with lambs trading firmer. The National Trades Lamb indicator 6,580 rebounded slightly by 2% on the week at AU$5.86/kg 6,040 cwt. The mutton indicator prices extended losses 5,500 and finished down 3% on last week at AU$3.77/kg 4,960 cwt. 4,420 Domestic producer prices in New Zealand (NZ) were 3,880 3,340 mixed with the 17.5kg lamb advancing slightly to close at NZ$90.40/ head but still behind last year by 2,800 11%. Mutton prices maintained a sideways trend and 2,260 18-Jul-14 21-No v-14 27-M ar-15 31-Jul-15 closed at NZ$52.20/ head, but still down by 16% y/y. Lamb C lass C Meanwhile, the export market remains relatively C o nt r act lamb N Z Lamb p ar it y Z N M ut t o n p ar it y subdued with demand out of China reportedly weak. * Last two data po ints are preliminary However, the longer term demand prospects for lamb and mutton in China remain bullish according to reports. Domestic: Prices were mixed during midmonth with the mutton market continuing to post good gains on the back of limited supplies. Weekly Class A lamb prices fell by 4.1% w/w but were still 5.3% higher y/y at R52.34 per kg. Contract Class A lamb prices were down 2.1% w/w but up 10.4% y/y at R54.69 per kg. Mutton prices gained 3.6% w/w and 7.8% y/y at R40.65 per kg. Weaner lamb prices reversed recent gains and fell sharply on the back of limited demand. Weekly weaner lamb prices fell by 10% w/w and 2.4% y/y at R24.56 per kg live weight. OUTLOOK The softer trend will continue in the short term as demand remains subdued. Prices are however expected to rebound slightly in the medium term as warmer weather returns. Pork market trends (Graph 3) International: According to the USDA, the average US pork carcass cutout value was up 1.1% on last week at US$82.30/cwt but still down by almost 40% y/y. Rib prices took a heavy hit, falling by 12.9% from last week and down 4% y/y. Ham prices also posted losses, coming in at US$51.70/cwt, which is down by 4% w/w and 63% y/y. Loins were the exception, gaining 3.3% w/w but still down by 34% y/y. Weekly slaughter data showed a slight increase on last week at 2.09m head, which is up 14% y/y. The year-to-date estimated pig slaughter reached 61.37m head, up 7% y/y. Graph 3: Pork price trends (SA c/kg) 4,260 3,980 3,700 3,420 3,140 2,860 2,580 2,300 2,020 1,740 1,460 1,180 900 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 Po r ker Imp o r t p ar it y * last two data points are preliminary 27-Mar-15 31-Jul-15 B aco ner Exp o r t p ar it y FNB Agri-Weekly Page 3 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ In the latest WASDE report, USDA increased its estimate of the 2015 US pork production by 0.5% but the 2016 figure came in virtually unchanged from the previous estimate. The 2015 and 2016 pork import forecasts were lowered, while the export forecasts were raised. Domestic: Prices trended sideways to lower with baconers coming under pressure due to softer demand during midmonth. Porkers however trended firmer due to limited supplies, ending the week at R24.55 per kg, but still up 16.5% y/y. Baconer prices were marginally down at R22.15 per kg, but still up 13.8% y/y. Import parity prices ended modestly lower largely due to lower international prices and renewed gains in the Rand/US dollar exchange rate. Weekly pork import parity prices fell by 3.5% w/w and 49% y/y. OUTLOOK The short term demand outlook remains sluggish due to seasonality. As a result, there is a limited upside potential for prices in the medium term until warmer weather returns. Graph 3a: Pork Import Trends (tons) Year-to-date: May 2015 Graph 3b: Pork Monthly Import Trends (tons) 7,000 20,000 15,000 6,000 2015 5,000 2012 4,000 10,000 2013 3,000 2014 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Graph 4d: Imports by Country - 2012 14% Graph 3e: Imports by Country - 2013 GERMANY 6% 16% 4% CANADA SPAIN 25% FRANCE 39% Other JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 4% 2% 7% 42% 5% 9% 27% GERMANY CANADA SPAIN UK FRANCE BELGIUM DENMARK Other Graph 3c: Imports by Country - 2014 9% 9% 18% 10% GERMANY CANADA FRANCE DENMARK 10% 44% SPAIN Other Source: SAPPO, SARS, Own Calculations Poultry market trends (Graph 4) Graph 4: Poultry price trends International: (c/kg) US prices ended mixed with whole birds 2,500 rebounding modestly. 2,380 Demand at retail and food service was reportedly 2,260 light to sttrong approaching the weekend. Market 2,140 activity was reportedly slow to moderate. 2,020 Whole bird prices gained 1.6% w/w and 3% y/y at 1,900 1,780 US116.00 cents/lb. 1,660 Leg quarter prices weakened and closed at 1,540 US45.50 cents/lb, down 1.1% w/w and 18% y/y. 1,420 Breast cuts closed at US130.50 cents/lb, down 1,300 1.1% w/w but almost unchanged y/y. 1,180 Wing prices were firmer at US167.00 cents/lb, up 18 - Jul- 14 2 1- N o v- 14 2 7- M ar - 15 3 1- Jul- 15 20.9% y/y. Frozen whole Fresh whole Imported Leg Quarter (US) IQF Drumsticks prices reversed recent gains and * last two data po ints are preliminary finished down 15.5% w/w and 20% y/y at US54.50 cents/lb. In the weekly US Broiler Hatchery report, egg sets for the week ended 18 July 2015 increased slightly on last year at 216m. Average hatchability for chicks remains at 84.0%. FNB Agri-Weekly Page 4 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The broiler chick placements were up by 3% y/y at 179m head. Cumulative broiler placements from January 10, 2015 through July 18, 2015 were up 3% y/y at 4.96b head. USDA raised its forecast of US broiler production for 2015 and 2016 based on hatchery data and continued increases in bird weights. Broiler exports for 2015 were raised on improved demand and large supplies as lower feed grain prices boost production. However, the 2016 forecast came in unchanged. Domestic: The softer trend continued on the local market due to limited demand and increased availability of product. Weekly frozen whole bird prices eased to R20.46 per kg, down 0.5% w/w and 2.9% y/y. Fresh whole bird prices closed at R21.28 per kg, down 0.6% w/w but still 5% higher y/y. In the portions category, Individually Quick Frozen cuts (IQF) prices weakened to R18.32 per kg but still up by 11% y/y. Import parity prices moved slightly lower due to the weaker international prices and a firmer Rand/ US dollar exchange rate. OUTLOOK The reduced harvest outlook for maize has poultry producers worried as prices have risen sharply and are putting feeding margins under pressure. It is expected that poultry prices will remain under pressure in the short to medium term on prospects of increased domestic and import supplies. Nonetheless, prices should rebound strongly towards year end as favourable braai weather (warmer) returns. Graph 4a: Poultry Import Trends Graph 4b: Poultry Monthly Import Trends (tons) 50,000 Year-to-date: May - 2015 200,000 2015 40,000 150,000 2011 30,000 2012 100,000 20,000 50,000 10,000 0 0 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 Graph 4e: Imports by Country - 2012 2014 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC BRAZIL BRAZIL Netherlands 0.09% Netherlands OTHER ARGENTINA 10.27% ARGENTINA UK 2.69% UK BRAZIL 13.81% 5.20% 6.56% 54.05% CANADA United States 1.69% United States OTHER 5.04% OTHER CANADA 2.94% 73.16% 18.37% NETHERLANDS 44.83% 3.31% ARGENTINA 3.19% BELGIUM 7.07% 1.87% 15.55% Graph 4e: Imports by Country - 2014 Graph 4c: Imports by Country - 2013 1.40% CANADA 27.56% 1.34% United States Source: SARS, Own Calculations; *Excluding BNLS Producer prices for selected livestock commodities 17 July 2015 Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds(R/kg) Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds(R/kg) Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) Beef 34.41 27.43 33.91 37.65 20.34 Mutton 52.34 40.65 54.69 30.11 24.56 Pork 24.55 20.65 22.15 21.13 Poultry 21.17 20.34 18.32 16.72 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 5 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Wool and cotton market trends (Graph 5) Graph 5: Cotton & w ool prices International: (SA c/kg) US cotton prices posted some modest losses on 2,100 Cotton Wool 16,450 selling pressure as China’s stock offload is in 2,000 15,670 progress. 14,890 1,900 Additionally, weather conditions improved in Texas 14,110 1,800 with sunny skies conducive for producers to continue 13,330 1,700 field work, also bolstering overall crop development. 12,550 1,600 US Export data came in bearish on weak import 11,770 1,500 demand in China and India. Overall export 10,990 1,400 shipments were down 36% w/w and 35% from the 410,210 1,300 week average at 136,200. 9,430 Reports released on Wednesday indicated a 26% 8,650 1,200 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 27-M ar-15 31-Jul-15 y/y decline in China’s imports. This was attributable SA Wool Aus Wool Cot t on A-Index ICE Fut ures to lack of import quotas on plans to offload stocks. * last two data points are preliminary US cotton supply is expected to ease slightly on reduced plantings however stocks remain high on weak export demand. Total use is expected to reach 3.75m bales, down 6% y/y, ending stocks are expected to remain flat at 4.2m bales. Overall world production is expected to decrease by 6% y/y reaching 111.46m bales. Exports are expected to remain firm on good import demand in India and Bangladesh where Chinese mills are expanding into. Ending stocks are expected to ease to 108.14m bales, down 3% y/y. Weekly cotton averaged 72.36US cents/lb, down 3% w/w and 13% y/y. In the futures market, prices ended weaker across the board on overall weak demand. Both the Dect-15 and Mar-16 contracts were down by slightly under 1% w/w closing at US65.22 cents/lb and US64.98 cents/lb respectively. Wool market: The Australian wool market is currently on recess. Domestic: th The market is closed for the season, the next season commences on the 12 of August 2015. The closing Cape Wools Merino indicator for the season was R141.20 per kg clean wool. At that level the indicator was up 27% compared to the opening sale and 23% compared to the season to date average. Fibre market prices 17 July 2015 Wool market indicator (R/kg) 19 long length wool (R/kg) 21 long length wool (R/kg) 23 long length wool (R/kg) Fibre market prices 17 July 2015 Cotton Prices (R/kg) SA prices (R/kg) Australian prices (R/kg) Australian futures Sep-15 (AU$/kg) Australian futures Dec-15 (AU$/kg) SA derived Cotton (R/kg) 19.75 113.27 124.35 120.69 117.63 New York A-Index (US$/kg) 1.59 13.10 12.70 11.50 Cotton Futures Oct-15 (US$/kg) 1.45 12.80 12.40 11.20 Cotton Futures Mar-16 (US$/kg) 1.43 Cotton Futures on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE); SA Market currently closed for the 2014/15 season Yellow maize market (Graph 6) International: US maize prices moved sideways to firmer on improved production conditions following heavy rains in the past few weeks. Additionally, ethanol production has reportedly picked up momentum and provided further support. The turnaround in weather conditions saw USDA leaving ratings unchanged at 69% in the good to excellent condition. This was however still 7percentage points lower y/y. However some fields remain water logged raising concerns over the yields. The July USDA’s WASDE report put US maize crop at 343.7m tons, which is down 5% y/y due to reduced (R/ton) Graph 6: Yellow m aize prices 3,630 3,310 2,990 2,670 2,350 2,030 1,710 1,390 1,070 750 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 Impo rt parity * last two data points are preliminary 27-Mar-15 Expo rt parity 31-Jul-15 Do mestic FNB Agri-Weekly Page 6 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ plantings and yield concerns. Ending stocks are expected to ease to 40.61m tons, down 10% y/y. World production was therefore revised down slightly to 987m tons which is down 1% y/y. Consumption is expected to remain firm with feed consumption up 2% y/y at 609m tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 189m tons down 3% from the previous estimate and 2% y/y. Domestic: Maize prices continue to post modest gains on spill over gains from the international market. Prices closed the week up 1% and were 62% higher y/y at R2,835 per ton. Exports for the week were estimated at 4,741 tons, all destined to neighbouring countries. There were no imports registered for the week, cumulative year to date import stand at 140,789 tons all sourced from Argentina. OUTLOOK It remains a weather market internationally. If the recent favourable weather conditions in the USA persist, prices could turn lower in the medium term. Domestic prices are expected to track the developments on international market. Graph 6a: Monthly Yellow Maize Export Trends Graph 6b: Total SA Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons) Marketing Seasons, (tons) 450,000 500,000 400,000 450,000 350,000 2015/16 2011/12 400,000 350,000 300,000 2011/12 250,000 200,000 2012/13 150,000 2013/14 2012/13 300,000 250,000 2013/14 200,000 150,000 2014/15 100,000 100,000 2014/15 50,000 2015/16 50,000 0 0 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Source: SAGIS Yellow Maize Futures Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 17 July 2015 CBOT ($/t) 170 174 176 178 168 JSE (R/t) 2 884 2 911 2 886 2 631 2 611 CHICAGO CORN (R/t) 3 000 3 045 2 886 2 631 2 611 Calculated Yellow Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 2,880 101 64 2,908 161 121 2,880 227 181 2,840 79 82 2,868 139 139 2,840 205 199 2,800 60 103 2,828 119 159 2,800 184 218 White maize market trends (Graph 7) International: Prices moved sideways to firmer as quality concerns subsided due to the turnaround in weather conditions. Weekly white maize prices were slightly up on last week and were 11% higher y/y at US$165/ton. Domestic: Prices ended firmer due to supply concerns and the spill over gains from the international market. Weekly white maize prices closed at R3,252 per ton, up 2% w/w and 95% y/y. Exports for the week were pegged at 10,622 tons, with the cumulative season to date reaching 99,267 tons, all destined to neighbouring countries. (R/ton) Graph 7: White m aize prices 3,800 3,480 3,160 2,840 2,520 2,200 1,880 1,560 1,240 920 600 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 Imp o r t p ar it y * last two data points are preliminary 27-M ar-15 Exp o r t p ar it y 31-Jul-15 D o mest ic FNB Agri-Weekly Page 7 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ There were no imports registered for the week, cumulative year to date imports stood at 262 tons all sourced from Zambia. OUTLOOK It remains a weather market internationally. If the recent favourable weather conditions in the USA persist, prices could turn lower in the medium term. Domestic prices are expected to track the developments on international market. White Maize Futures 17 July 2015 JSE (R/t) WM1 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 3 330 3 391 3 354 2 805 2 735 Calculated White Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put 3,260 128 84 3,320 247 208 3,280 290 256 3,220 106 102 3,280 225 226 3,240 268 274 3,180 86 122 3,240 204 245 3,200 247 293 Graph 7a: Monthly White Maize Export Trends (tons) Marketing Seasons 300,000 Call Graph 7b: Total Monthly SA Maize Exports (tons) Marketing Seasons 500,000 400,000 200,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 0 MAY JUN JUL 2014/15 2012/13 AUG SEP OCT NOV 2015/16 2013/14 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 2011/12 0 MAY 2011/12 JUN JUL AUG 2012/13 SEP OCT NOV 2013/14 DEC JAN 2014/15 FEB MAR APR 2015/16 Source: SAGIS; Wheat market trends (Graph 8) Graph 8: Wheat price trends International: (R/ton) Weekly wheat prices ended with losses on harvest 4,900 pressure and poor export demand. 4,460 US export sales saw pressure from the strong US$ 4,020 3,580 index which limited demand for US wheat. 3,140 The bullish world supply outlook continued to place 2,700 downward pressure on the market. USDA is 2,260 expecting the largest winter wheat crop in 20 years 1,820 at 15.6m tons. 1,380 Total world production is estimated at 722m tons, 940 500 down from a record of 726m tons in 2014/15 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 27-M ar-15 31-Jul-15 marketing season. This is however the second highest crop on record. Consumption is however Imp o r t p ar it y Exp o r t p ar it y D o mest ic * last two data points are preliminary expected to ease to 714m tons on reductions in China and Canada. This is however up 2% from the 5-year record. World trade is also expected to ease on low export availability in key export countries. Meanwhile, production conditions in Europe continue to deteriorate raising concerns over yields. Domestic: Prices remained relatively firm with concerns over production conditions providing added support. Weekly wheat prices closed at R3,950 per ton, up 7% y/y. According to SAGIS, imports for the week were estimated at 8,704 tons, all sourced from Canada. The cumulative year to date figure reached 1.5m tons. FNB Agri-Weekly Page 8 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ OUTLOOK Prices are expected to come under more pressure on the international market due to abundant world supplies. Given the South Africa is a net importer of wheat, prices are expected to continue to track international prices. Graph 8a: Wheat Import Trends (tons) Marketing Season 320,000 320000 240,000 240000 160,000 160000 80,000 80000 - Graph 8b: Wheat Import & Export Trends (tons) Marketing Season 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN 2011/12 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 2012/13 2013/14 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV 2014/15 DEC JAN IMP-2014/15 IMP-2013/14 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL EXP-2014/15 EXP-2013/14 AUG SEP Source: SAGIS; Wheat Futures 17 July 2015 KCBT ($/t) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 207.01 210.17 211.64 211.72 213.92 JSE (R/t) 3 960 3 899 3 952 Calculated Wheat Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005) Sep-15 Dec-15 - Mar-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 4,000 79 39 3,940 124 83 4,000 161 113 3,960 56 56 3,900 102 101 3,960 139 131 3,920 38 78 3,860 83 122 3,920 119 151 Oilseed market trends (Graph 9) Graph 9: Derived Oilseed prices (R/ton) International: US soya bean prices moved sideways on good 7,880 crushing demand, however pressure from large 7,440 world stocks limited upside potential. 7,000 Crushing was reported at a month’s high of 6,560 6,120 142.5m tons, which is slightly above market 5,680 expectations. In the latest USDA WASDE report, US oilseed 5,240 4,800 output was revised up to 115m tons based on 4,360 final plantings report. This is however still down 3,920 2% y/y. Further, ending stocks are expected to 3,480 lower than previous estimates. 18-Jul-14 21-No v-14 27-M ar-15 31-Jul-15 Soya bean output was revised higher on Derived Soya Derived Sunflower increased land area while yields were left Sunflower-spot Soya-spot * last two data po ints are preliminary unchanged. Total US soya bean output is estimated at 105.7m tons, down 2% y/y. Soya bean ending stocks were revised lower on high crushing estimates. The International Grain Council estimates world production for the 2014/15 322m tons well above the previous estimate and 13% higher y/y on upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil. For the new season, production was left unchanged from previous estimates at 322m tons, down 2% y/y. Beginning stocks for the new season are 55% higher y/y on large carry-over in main exporting countries, notably China. Domestic: Prices were mixed in the oilseed market. Weekly soybean prices ended with moderate gains on spill over strength from the international market. Prices closed at R4,927 per ton, however still down 1% y/y. Sunflower prices moved sideways to weaker on lack of supportive news, settling at R5,460 per ton, up 20% y/y. FNB Agri-Weekly Page 9 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ OUTLOOK Internationally, soya bean prices are expected to trend sideways with further downside potential on adequate global supplies. However, the medium term price outlook for the domestic market remains bullish due to the lower expected crop compared to last year. Oilseeds Futures 17 July 2015 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 CBOT Soybeans (US $/t) 369.86 367.07 366.92 CBOT Soya oil (US c/lb) 31.94 32.37 32.41 32.46 CBOT Soya cake meal (US$/t) 384.16 380.74 369.16 368.06 JSE Sunflower seed (R/t) 5 481 5 555 JSE Soybean seed (R/t) 4 985 5 045 5 155 5 137 Calculated Sunflower Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: 011 269 9005) Sep-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 363.10 32.42 366.19 - Mar-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 5,600 152 102 5,620 265 215 5,560 130 120 5,580 243 233 5,520 110 140 5,540 222 252 Ask Put Call Sugar market trends (Graph 15) Graph 10: World Raw Sugar Price International: (USc/lb) No.11 (Usc/lb) Sugar prices moved sideways to firmer as rain 21 induced harvest delays were met by expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil. 19 This coupled with the weaker Real should see 18 prices resuming a downward trend. However, the lower ending stocks will limit 16 further declines. 15 Raw sugar prices were virtually unchanged w/w and settled at US12.38 cents/Ib, which is down 13 28% y/y. 12 Futures were down across the board with the Mar-16 contract down 2% w/w at US13.35 10 cents/lb; while the May-16 contract saw slight 19 - Jul- 14 17 - Nov- 14 18 - Ma r- 15 17 - Jul- 15 losses, ending down 2% w/w at US13.44 cents/lb. Domestic: The June 2015 RV price in respect of cane delivered in May 2015 was declared at R3,867.41 per ton, up by R14.88 m/m. According to the South African Cane Growers Association, this was attributable to the 20,134 ton drop in gross sugar production currently estimated at 1.75m tons, an improved average world market price and the weaker Rand. The downside pressure came from the decrease in the sugar:RV ratio. Export availability is estimated at 62,083 tons however further significant revisions are expected in future given the uncertainty in the crop estimate as it is still early in the season. ICE Sugar Futures 17 July 2015 Sugar No.11 (US c/lb) % Change w/w Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 13.35 -2.2% 13.44 -1.8% 13.51 -1.0% 13.75 -0.5% 14.34 -0.2% FNB Agri-Weekly Page 10 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Vegetable Market Trends (Graphs 11 to 15) Tomatoes Tomato prices carried the weak momentum as a result of volume pressure. Weekly tomato prices closed at R5,327 per ton, down 15% w/w and 23% y/y. Volumes of tomatoes traded reached 4,276 tons, up 5% w/w and 46% y/y. Prices are however expected to rebound slightly on moderation in supplies. Graph 11: Fresh Produce Markets -Tom ato prices 6000 11,280 10,340 9,400 5000 8,460 7,520 6,580 4000 3000 5,640 4,700 2000 3,760 2,820 1,880 940 0 18-Jul-14 1000 0 21-Nov-14 27-Mar-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) 31-Jul-15 R/ton (LHS) * last two data points are preliminary Potatoes Potato prices resumed a weaker trend on increased supplies across markets. The average weekly price of potatoes eased to R2,393 per ton, down 11% w/w and 20% y/y. Volumes of potatoes traded reached 13,717 tons, virtually unchanged w/w and up 3% y/y. Prices are expected to rebound on good demand in the short to medium term. Graph 12: Fresh Produce Markets - Potato prices 18720 16640 14560 12480 10400 8320 6240 4160 2080 0 5 120 4 480 3 840 3 200 2 560 1920 1280 640 0 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 27-Mar-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) 31-Jul-15 R/ton (LHS) * last t wo dat a point s are preliminary Onions Onion prices reversed last week’s gains on subdued uptake on markets. Weekly onion prices closed at R3,083 per ton, down 5% w/w and 16% y/y. Volumes of onions traded were pegged at 4,903 tons, down 9% w/w but up 10% y/y. It is expected that prices will flatten out in the short term on moderation in supplies. Graph 13: Fresh Produce Markets - Onion prices 8000 5 400 4 860 4 320 3 780 3 240 2 700 2 160 1620 1080 540 0 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 Volumes (ton) (RHS) * last t wo dat a point s are preliminary 27-Mar-15 31-Jul-15 R/ton (LHS) FNB Agri-Weekly Page 11 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Carrots Graph 14: Fresh Produce Markets Carrot prices Carrot prices extended recent losses under pressure due to moderation in demand during midmonth. Weekly carrot prices were down 2% w/w and 25% y/y, closing at R2,284 per ton. Volumes of carrots traded reached 1,651 tons, down 7% w/w but up 12% y/y. Prices are expected to remain flat in the short to long term due to a balance in the supply and demand dynamics for the medium term. 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 8360 7600 6840 6080 5320 4560 3800 3040 2280 1520 760 0 18-Jul-14 21-Nov-14 27-M ar-15 31-Jul-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS) * last two data points are preliminary Graph 15: Fresh Produce Markets - Cabbage prices Cabbages Cabbaged prices rebounded from last week’s losses on moderation in supplies across markets. Weekly cabbage prices closed at R3,875 per ton, up 18% w/w and 42% y/y. Volumes of cabbages traded were down by 1% w/w but up 5% y/y at 1,342 tons. For the short term, prices are expected to ease slightly on volume pressure, but will rebound in the medium term as demand picks up. 1900 4 940 4 560 4 180 3 800 3 420 3 040 2 660 2 280 1 900 1 520 1 140 760 380 0 18- Jul- 14 1520 1140 760 380 0 21- Nov- 14 27- Mar- 15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) 31- Jul- 15 R/ton (LHS) * last two data points are preliminary Vegetable prices: South Africa’s Major Fresh Produce Markets. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban) Week ending 17 July 2015 Average Price (R/t) w/w y/y Total Volume (t) w/w y/y Tomato Potato Onion Carrot 5 327 2 393 3 083 2 284 -15% -11.4% -5% -2% -23% -20.0% -16% -25% 4276 13717 4903 1651 5% 0% -9% -7% 46% 3.3% 10% 12% Cabbage 3 875 18% 42% 1342 -1% 5% * Daily prices also available at https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za FNB Agri-Weekly Page 12 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Fruit Market Trends – Major Fresh Produce Markets in SA (Graphs 16 to 20) Graph 16: Fresh Produce Markets - Apple prices Graph 17: Fresh Produce Markets - Avocado prices 8,000 3,500 7,000 3,000 6,000 2,500 5,000 2,000 4,000 1,500 3,000 1,000 2,000 500 1,000 0 19-Jul-14 17-Nov-14 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 0 17-Jul-15 18-Mar-15 R/ton (LHS) 30,000 27,000 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 19-Jul-14 Graph 18: Fresh Produce Markets - Banana prices 6,000 7,000 5,000 6,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 17-Nov-14 600 500 400 300 200 100 17-Nov-14 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 18-Mar-15 R/ton (LHS) 0 17-Jul-15 80,000 900 70,000 800 60,000 700 600 50,000 500 40,000 400 30,000 300 20,000 200 10,000 100 0 17-Jul-15 18-Mar-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 700 Graph 19: Fresh Produce Markets - Grapes prices 8,000 0 19-Jul-14 800 0 19-Jul-14 R/ton (LHS) 17-Nov-14 18-Mar-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 0 17-Jul-15 R/ton (LHS) Graph 20: Fresh Produce Markets - Pear prices Graph 20: Fresh Produce Markets - Mango prices 60,000 1,400 60,000 1,200 50,000 1,200 50,000 1,000 40,000 800 30,000 600 20,000 400 10,000 200 1,000 40,000 800 30,000 600 20,000 400 10,000 200 0 19-Jul-14 17-Nov-14 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 0 19-Jul-14 0 17-Jul-15 18-Mar-15 17-Nov-14 18-Mar-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) R/ton (LHS) 0 17-Jul-15 R/ton (LHS) FRUIT PRICES: Major FPM. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban) Week ending 17 July 2015 Apples Avocados Bananas Grapes Pears Average Price (R/t) w/w 5 313 12 216 4 885 58 115 26 633 2% 3% 4% -8% 6% y/y -3% 47% 22% 1% 7% Total Volume (t) 2026 421 3062 12 141 w/w -16% -8% -4% 7% -78% y/y -3% -14% -6% -38% -75% * Daily prices also available at https://www.fnbagricomms.co.za Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.