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DSMagazine
VOLUME 7 / ISSUE 1 / SPRING 2007
Demand Solutions
Gives EVERLAST
the Forecasting
Knock-Out Punch
DS Magazine
OPENING Letter
R
ecently I was leaving for the grocery store and asked my wife if there was anything she
needed. In everyday life we collaborate with others when we go to the store, take our
kids to baseball practice or plan a family trip. We all know how to collaborate in our
personal lives, and yet applying such basic skills to work is not always as easy as it sounds. In this
issue of DS Magazine, we’ve focused on examples of collaboration in our professional lives.
Seventy-eight percent of American companies alone outsource some if not all of their
manufacturing, often to Asia. Most of you work in a distributed environment with multiple offices,
several warehouses and complex logistics. During your regular course of business, you often go
through acquisitions and divestitures, new product introductions, discontinuation of slow-moving
or outmoded products, product reengineering, organizational changes and shifts in suppliers. It
makes forecasting and inventory management one of the most challenging jobs in today’s business
environment.
The companies in this issue illustrate what I mean. For Everlast, boxing doesn’t just mean
big sweaty guys any more—the company produced pink boxing gloves to support breast cancer
research and the Everlast Desktop Speedbag that sticks to your desk with a suction cup and provides
stress relief at work. From the sound of things, a lot of you could probably use one of those. One
predictable result of Everlast’s expansion is that the company’s SKUs quadrupled over the last
five years. Another predictable result is that DS Forecast Management and DS Replenishment
Planning, along with our products for collaboration, are helping to support continued profitable
growth.
Look through the magazine for ideas you can use. Mette Lintonbon, a forecasting professional
at Irwin Tools in Copenhagen, provokes competition among the sales teams by sending the monthly
forecast accuracy results to all the teams, so they can see who is the most accurate. Competition
and her personal visits to every office in the field at least once a quarter have generated substantial
cooperation from sales people. It also helps, as several companies report, that Demand Solutions
makes the task of modifying forecast data fairly easy and efficient for the sales staff. “The sales
people don’t like to do forecasting to begin with, so you want to make it easy for them to use,”
explained Beth Adames, senior corporate planning manager at California Eastern Labs, who is
using DS Collaborate in addition to DS Forecast Management.
Most of you take pride in reducing inventory, but Dyrup, a paint and stain manufacturer
based in Denmark, actually expanded its inventory after getting started with Demand Solutions
because it felt confident it was building up the correct stocks. That led to improved fill rates.
At our upcoming customer conference you can hear more on this theme from James
Surowiecki, the financial columnist for The New Yorker and the author of The Wisdom of
Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business,
Economies, Societies and Nations. He’s a natural fit for planners, and has researched the issues
of collaboration deeply to understand how it works…and why sometimes it doesn’t. Come with
questions—this is a great opportunity to tap the knowledge of a real expert.
Hope to see you in St. Louis at the upcoming Conference.
Bill T. Harrison
President
demandsolutions.com
TABLE of Contents
Spring 2007
4 News
The Demand Solutions Users Group conference begins with a keynote address by
James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds. Learn how to tap the collective
expertise of your colleagues.
5 Everlast
The company’s knock-out strategy is to build on its name and expand into new
markets including women’s fitness and desk-top punching bags. More products,
more SKUs.
8 Irwin Tools
When sales teams compete, forecasters win. Irwin Tools in Europe has some tips
for getting sales professionals to contribute information to the forecasting process.
10 Raymour & Flanigan
Quality, price, and speed. Pick all three at this fast-growing furniture group
which has turned forecasting and inventory management into a strategic
competitive advantage.
14 Dyrup
The Denmark-based company can’t control the weather, but it has learned to control
its inventory to be ready for spikes in demand when spring arrives and homeowners
prepare to paint and stain.
16 XanGo
Selling a nutritional supplement through individual distributors who host sales
events in their homes requires careful attention to detail. XanGo manages in a
fast-moving global business.
18 Flexalloy
Acquiring and unexpected benefit: When Acument™ Global Technologies
acquired Flexalloy and Avdel® recently, the Flexalloy forecasting team’s skills
were in global demand.
20 Leaders Forum: Collaboration
Forecasters who have seen their results improve through better collaboration with
sales, marketing, and sometimes directly with customers, explain how they do it.
23 DS Employee Spotlight: Customer Support
Who’s on the other end when you call the Demand Solutions Help Desk?
Find out, and learn how the demand for forecasting information has moved
up the corporate ladder.
DS Magazine
DS News
>>The keynote at this year’s Demand
Solutions Users Group conference will be
from crowds guessing the weight of a
James Surowiecki, the financial columnist
butchered ox at an English fair in 1906 to
for The New Yorker and author of The
assembling information from experts to find
Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are
the missing US submarine, The Scorpion,
Smarter than the Few and How Collective
in 1968, Surowiecki shows how groups can
Wisdom
produce better answers than individuals and
Shapes
Business,
Economies,
Drawing on a variety of examples,
Societies and Nations.
often better answers than experts.
Surowiecki is a speaker you don’t
However, his approach is not merely
want to miss. Demand planners are always
anecdotal. He analyzes approaches and
working with forecast. Surowiecki should
points to ways that group efforts can fail,
be able to help you decide how wide a
especially if members seek to conform to the
circle to include and the best ways to
general opinion, or if they follow the lead of
develop interaction that will lead to greater
the most powerful person in the room.
accuracy.

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demandsolutions.com
COVER STORY
Everlast Builds a
Championship Company
With New Product Lines
F
ounded in 1910 by Jacob Golomb, a swimmer
company sells equipment for aerobic boxing in pink
who wanted to produce swimwear that would
and other more feminine colors, in women’s sizes.
last more than one season, Everlast dropped
This year it is introducing more fashionable colors
the swimming suits but became the best-known
in gloves and even heavy bags. Exercise routines in
name in boxing.
health clubs can be spiky as one routine is replaced
That happened after Jack Dempsey walked into
by another, or a workout gets bad publicity over
Golomb’s sporting goods store and asked him to
some potential harm, all reasons for keeping a close
make protective headgear that would last through 15
watch on sales and inventory.
rounds of intensive training.
The company has been on a roll under Seth
heavyweight
Horowitz who was appointed chairman and CEO
championship in 1919 with gloves made by Golomb,
late in 2005, at 29, and was also named one of “25
Everlast became the leading name in boxing
Leaders to Watch” by Sports Edge Magazine.
equipment around the world, a position it still enjoys
with annual sales of $39.6 million.
mounted punching bag to take out frustrations at the
office, sold at Sharper Image.
After
Dempsey
won
the
Now the company is determined to take the
Among
the
recent
products—a
desktop-
brand in new directions, said Joe Epstein, vice
president, supply chain.
outside the usual sporting goods arena, Everlast is
expanding its marketing to specific groups in the
Pink boxing gloves? Yes indeed, sold at Bed,
In addition to working with retailers who are
Bath and Beyond—not exactly your usual outlet
athletics sector.
for boxing equipment—in support of breast cancer
research. Moving into a women’s market the
made a push to the Latino and women’s markets,”
“Over the last year and going forward we have
DS Magazine
COVER STORY
explained Epstein, who wouldn’t discuss all the
forecasting. If we are off, it has a ripple effect
company’s marketing plans because he doesn’t want
on our inventory and inhibits our ability to meet
to give away competitive secrets.
commitments to our retail partners.” Compensating
Okay, just a few. Everlast is launching a Country
for poor forecasts with air freight isn’t a real
Pride line which includes national colors and insignia
alternative, he added, because the Everlast goods are
on boxing gloves, head guards and hand wraps for
so bulky.
the USA, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Italy and Ireland.
Canadians are asking about a Maple Leaf for their
Image handle some of the more unusual products,
retailers. The diversification will make new demands
Everlast does the bulk of its sales through the major
on Demand Solutions FM and RP, said Epstein.
sporting goods stores – all of them – and through
broad-based consumer outlets like Wal-Mart, Sears,
“My job is getting more complicated, which is
While Bed, Bath and Beyond and Sharper
why we are implementing the tools that will gives us
Target and Kmart.
the visibility we need.
The new outlets illustrate a real trend for the
company—growing
complexity.
The
growing
number of sales outlets is mirrored on the supply
As it expands its sales, Everlast realized
it needed to improve its methods of
forecasting and replenishment.
side as Everlast expands the number of overseas
manufacturers it relies on.
“That really makes our work a lot more intricate,
so Demand Solutions Requirements Planning is what
we are counting on to help us go forward.”
“We have been trying to get set up for
“We were a little antiquated in
company realized it needed better ways to handle
the way we were forecasting
forecasting and resupply.
demand – Excel and a whole
lot of feel. We want to get
initially recommended to Everlast by their new
more scientific about it, so we
SVP of manufacturing, Tom Higgerson, who had
As often happens, Demand Solutions was
brought in Demand Solutions.
used the software at a previous company. Impressed
some
by working with Demand Solutions Northeast and
our
what the software does for inventory management,
“We
have
effort
from
marketing, sales and PR teams
Higgerson recommended it to Everlast.
to really take the brand in new
Epstein and Higgerson met with Demand
direction, and we anticipate our
Solutions’ Bill Whiteside to see if the software would
numbers going up dramatically,”
meet its business requirements.
he explained.
“The Demand Solutions guys are bright,” said
A larger percentage of the
Epstein, “and they are capable of describing the
company’s stock is imported from
software to a lay person and explaining how it would
China in the form of finished goods,
help aggregate our demand. The application is very
raw materials, and sub-assemblies
much user friendly. If you can use Excel, you can use
that are sewn in Missouri. One
this software, but its functionality dwarfs Excel’s.”
specialized fabric for gloves, bags
and gym mats comes from Israel.
primary forecaster to a regional Demand Solutions
Epstein said lead times are 90 to 120
users group meeting in Baltimore. They spent two
days.
demandsolutions.com
Everlast’s expansion into new areas has resulted
in 2,000 SKUs, up from 500 just five years ago. The
concerted
expansion mode,” added Epstein.
“We
Everlast sent its VP of supply chain and its
days talking to current users, asking questions, and
definitely
depend
on
learning about the software’s capabilities. It helped
that a Demands Solutions specialist had
faces an unpredictable market. In its case,
already written an interface to MAS200,
the latest Rocky movie or the TV show
the host system that Everlast uses, so the
Contender can create a boost in sales.
company could get a quick start.
The Contender, an unscripted reality TV
Everlast has already seen the effects—
Everlast was a leading sponsor of
speed and accuracy.
drama about the lives, fears and hopes of 16
In the past, said Epstein, it took
professional boxers as they compete for the
24-48 hours, even a week, to roll up all
chance to change their lives and the lives
the projections from sales reps. Now the
of the people they love forever. Produced
company gets a starting point in half an
by Mark Burnett, Jeffrey Katzenberg and
hour.
Sylvester Stallone, it has aired under the
ESPN Original Entertainment banner.
“It gives you more data more quickly in
a very presentable format than we have ever
had access to before, and that gives us more
considerable
time to ask questions. We can really focus
among both consumers and retailers. The
in on our opportunities and our potential
enthusiasm was mirrored by the show’s
stumbling blocks.”
producers.
At a meeting on the second day of
Horowitz said the show generated
excitement
for
Everlast
“Through our partnership with Everlast
using DS FM, executives asked to take
we are looking forward to continuing to
a look at revenue forecasts—a typical
build innovative marketing platforms as
reasonability check that Demand Solutions
well as deliver creative television that will
Northeast runs at new installs—based on
captivate our viewers on a weekly basis,”
raw data. “We were within two percent of
said Mark Burnett.
our independent revenue projections, even
before we cleaned the data, and that was a
a close relationship with The Contender’s
very pleasant surprise.”
producers.
Epstein likes to think of Demand
Epstein said the company has enjoyed
“When they have done their product
Solutions as a niche product that is very
planning they have made us a big part of it,
comprehensive, while other products the
so we do get a heads up on their equipment
company evaluated just didn’t meet its
needs.” Sales rise after shows, and it’s not
specific business needs.
just sales to boxers, he added.
“They wanted to get hands on and
“Everlast is really built on strength,
learn our business to help with a successful
dedication, individuality and authenticity,
implementation,” he added. “They achieved
and that is relevant to most, if not all, sports.
that, and we are very pleased with the
So any sports activity in the area of those
results. We think it will help us keep our fill
four traits is fair game for Everlast.”
rates at 99 or 100 percent, and that is our
goal. We are very, very pleased with our
progress.”
Most of the company’s product comes
in through Long Beach, CA and then travels
by train to Kansas City for trucking to
Moberly, MO where Everlast has a factory
for final assembly and its main warehouse.
Pipeline
Everlast has become one of
the early adopters of Pipeline, the
collaboration
tool
from
Demand
Solutions. (See Pipeline story page 18)
“Typically,” explained Epstein,
“the sales guys would have to analyze
their individual customer sales history,
anticipate any growth, inquire about
new store openings, and compile
all of their projections from scratch.
Pipeline gives them a starting point, a
foundation to work from so they can
modify existing information rather
than starting from a blank piece of
paper. It’s a lot easier to modify data
than it is to come up with something
from scratch.”
The great advantage of the tool is
that it keeps sales people doing what
they are paid for—selling—while
keeping their administrative tasks to
a minimum. And for company sales
managers and executives, Pipeline
makes it easy to see the accuracy of
their sales forecasts.
Everlast depends on Demand
Solutions to assist it in meeting the
requirements
of
an
increasingly
challenging business environment. As
the company continues to expand the
number of its SKUs, the importance
of accurate forecasting rises. At the
same time, retailing continues to
undergo what Epstein calls “Big
Boxification”—the continued growth
of huge sporting goods stores near
major shopping malls.
“The larger the retailer, the
more demanding it is in fill rates
and merchandizing. It becomes that
much more critical that we accurately
forecast demand.”
Like many retail suppliers, Everlast
DS Magazine
Irwin Tools
Fast Moving
Irwin Tools Maintains its Pace with Demand Solutions
M
demandsolutions.com
ette Lintonbon, a forecasting professional,
meets with them in person or by a conference call
hasn’t always used Demand Solutions.
once a month to review the numbers.
Working in Copenhagen, Denmark for
“I go through the spreadsheets to discuss
the North Carolina-based Irwin Tools, she had been
the spikes I found and I get feedback from them
quite content to plug sales information into Concorde
regarding promotions. Every month I get reports
an ERP system that the company used.
from our marketing head office in Munich regarding
But after Irwin was bought by Newell
new products, or products that will be discontinued
Rubbermaid, she moved to the corporate standard,
and I incorporate that back into Demand Solutions
Demand Solutions.
and create the sales forecast. I also create a Sales and
And she hasn’t looked back.
Operations Plan report every month from Demand
“It is easier to work with and less time
Solutions that I use to show the management how we
consuming compared to the previous tool,” she
are doing in value.”
explained. Good thing, because since 2004 the
company has expanded her job from forecasting
is down 24 percent over the last 13 months while
for Western Europe to planning for all of Europe,
service levels have gone from 82 percent to 93
plus the UK which is also responsible for exports to
percent. Lintonbon doesn’t give all the credit to
Asia. So now her remit extends to China, not usually
Demand Solutions. Some of the improvement
considered part of Europe. All this for a demand
comes from a reduction in SKUs, she said. Where
planning department of two people – Lintonbon and
the company might have had one product in four
her colleague, Berenika Andreasen.
different packages, it now has one package. But
Lintonbon, like other sophisticated users
a reduction in safety stock is the result of working
of Demand Solutions, uses orders, or requested
smarter with Demand Solutions. The safety stock
quantities, from the company’s ERP system rather
is now calculated in forecasting using Demand
than historical sales data to ensure the system captures
Solutions’ Service Level Optimizer.
real demand and doesn’t miss opportunities hidden
by inadequate inventory in past sales periods. drill bits in 4, 6, and 8 mm and we sell those by
She takes the forecast that comes out of
thousands a month. But when you get to very small
Demand Solutions and exports it to Excel with all
or very big drill bits, we sell those two or three times
its spikes and troughs. Then she distributes the Excel
a year.”
spreadsheets to the appropriate regions and either
Inventory in the four main European warehouses
“It is tough to predict in this business. We sell
Many of her records are “Aliens” – with
Irwin Tools
fewer than two to three monthly sales in a 12-month
business in an area, or gained? We can pinpoint areas where we
period and others fall into various Demand Solutions
have problems or where we are forecasting less than the budget
definitions of outliers, such as “Strangers” that will
and need to sell more. For them it is less time consuming and they
not respond well to standard statistical forecasting
don’t feel it is such a hassle.”
formulas. For these more sporadic events Demand
Solutions provides additional forecasting tools.
She sends sales accuracy reports to
all the regions to encourage sales teams
to compete with each other to achieve
the best forecast.
Lintonbon has found the ease of stratifying her sales
data using the “XYZ” frequency of sale technique a
valuable feature in helping her better understand and
manage differing demand profiles.
To improve results further, she is changing the
way data goes into the Demand Solutions application.
Irwin has—right now anyway—6,745 SKUs. But if
they are broken down into 7 warehouses and 8 regions,
the best data to use in her forecasts. She appreciates that Demand
Lintonbon works the numbers from all angles in her search for
the number of forecasting records soars to more than
Solutions makes it easy to try a variety of approaches.
21,000. To improve accuracy, Irwin has rolled up
sales into higher level aggregates rather than trying
of history for some items. With Demand Solutions you
to forecast at a customer/warehouse/region level with
have so many parameters you can use. The history length
several hundred thousand individual records. Soon the
we select depends on the product group. When you look
forecasts will be based on warehouses, rather than the
at what I have—three and a half years of history that’s
seven regions plus the warehouses. By aggregating
what I use for most forecasts. If sales have changed a
demand she expects to reduce the number of aliens
lot, if a sales region hasn’t bought and suddenly took
and strangers in the system and achieve further
in a lot of product just two years ago, I only use two
improvements to her forecast accuracy.
years of history.”
Working with the sales force
when Irwin buys a new company.
“I have tried different formulas, using different lengths
To get better information from the sales force,
she draws on their competitive spirit.
“One of the best tricks is when you send the
forecast accuracy reports to the sales teams, we send
all the reports out to everybody so they can see the
other regions’ results.”
She also travels a lot, planning face to face
meetings with each region at least once a quarter to
show them what Demand Solutions can do.
“And I show them areas where we struggle to
forecast and I need their help. I explain the potential
damage if they don’t come in with their input.”
Using Demand Solutions has made work easier
for the sales force, she added. Where once she sent a
spreadsheet with the entire inventory, now she uses
the application’s filters to show just the exceptions to
focus on.
“Then we have a dialogue and I question
every change they make in a forecast. Have we lost
Demand Solutions makes it easy to add SKUs
Her figures show the changes driven by
globalization. Factories in Europe are closing,
production is moving to China, and Irwin Tools
sales are following into the new market.
As the company grows and expands its
sales territory and she changes her ways of
working in search of better forecasts, Demand
Solutions continues to meet her requirements.
“Demand Solutions is very good – it is fast
to work with and you can create an overview
very quickly. In other systems you often
spend a lot of time sifting out which method
is better. Demand Solutions goes through all
its different, very good formulas and picks
that one that gives you the best results. You
can check your forecast by running filters
and look at just the exceptions while you let
Demand Solutions carry on what it is good
at – making excellent forecasts.”
DS Magazine
Raymour & Flanigan
Furniture Delivered in
Three Days or Less
Raymour & Flanigan Manages its Inventory for Customer Satisfaction
T
10 demandsolutions.com
he recently opened Raymour & Flanigan
designed signs around the store and in its sales flyers
Furniture showroom in Paramus, NJ is a
announce the company’s strategy, “Delivery in 3
handsome two-story building with brick on
days or less, guaranteed.” Except for box springs and
the ground level and floor to ceiling glass on the
mattresses—those can be delivered the next day.
second. Inside, escalators make it easy to move
between floors. At 63,072 square feet it stands out
day we talked with Dave Mirabito, Director of
even in Paramus, a town of 25,737 whose shopping
Supply Chain, they were out of 42. The company
centers do $5 billion in retail each year, about equal
runs at a 98.5 percent service level and that, said
to the gross domestic product of Cambodia, as a New
Mirabito, is an everyday occurrence.
York Times reporter noted recently.
For Raymour & Flanigan Furniture, which has
“This commitment to our customers has helped us
been expanding rapidly throughout the Northeast,
grow to become the Northeast’s largest and fastest
Paramus is the 70th store, and the 12th in the New
growing furniture retailer. You can rely on Raymour
York metropolitan area—impressive growth since
& Flanigan showrooms for all of your home
the privately held business was founded in 1947 with
furnishing needs. Our volume buying power allows
a single store in Syracuse, NY.
us to provide you with the finest collection of brand
Paramus, like all the Raymour & Flanigan
name furniture and accessories at the lowest prices,
stores, features a wide array of chairs and sofas
and our state-of-the-art distribution system allows us
in upholstery or leather, armoires, coffee tables,
to guarantee delivery in three days or less (excluding
dining room sets and bedroom suites. Cleanly
special orders)!”
Raymour & Flanigan stocks 2700 SKUs. The
As the company promises on its web site:
Raymour & Flanigan
Demand Solutions
Supports The Promise
“cube” out an order, i.e. fill a trailer to its 3,000 cubic
guide for the inventory planner to use in making the
Behind that success rate is Demand Solutions.
foot capacity. DS RP’s functionality can consolidate
import quantities from vendors and provide a rough
It’s so important that Raymour and Flanigan gives
final decisions on the order on an exception basis.
the software credit on the company’s web site: “At
Raymour & Flanigan Furniture, our models for
determine what should be in each service center.
inventory control help us achieve our commitment
Then we create and review the forecasted demand
to our three-day delivery guarantee. We refined our
in FM. This is then sent into RP and replenishment
delivery performance to pinpoint delivery to our
suggestions are reviewed and managed on an
customers within a two-hour window, and our use of
exception basis along with a little bit of planner
Demand Solutions Requirements Planning software
intuition. Using these results in RP we decide where
has automated our reorder function, allowing us to fill
we send these goods. If we know we will sell six blue
and empty our distribution centers more than 12 times
sofas through Islip, we will ship them directly to the
“We review historical trends for locations and
per year.” The company also uses Demand Solutions’ Long Island service center from the vendor. That
Forecast Management.
costs less, and the fewer times we handle an item the
better off we are.”
Like many retailers in the US, Raymour &
Flanigan imports much of what it sells—60 to 65
DS RP allows us to fill and empty
our distribution centers more
than 12 times per year.
percent of its goods, primarily from Asia. Most of
that comes to American shores by ships that dock
in New York. From there the containers travel to its
Liverpool, N.Y. campus or Gibbstown, NJ distribution
facilities. From Shanghai to the New York warehouse
can take as little as three weeks.
is on display, the showrooms carry hundreds of
“Our transportation group is incredible,” said
Since not all customers are content with what
Mirabito.
furniture covering samples. The result is 300 to 350
special orders a day across the chain, or about 10-15
To keep furniture close to customers, the
company operates a second distribution center in
percent of the company’s business.
Gibbstown, NJ in addition to its headquarters facilities
in the Syracuse area. It also has 15 customer service
explained Mirabito, “we expect special orders as a
centers where it maintains additional inventory closer
percentage of the business to drop to 10-12 percent
to customers to ensure it can make that three-day
because we will carry the coverings that customers
delivery guarantee.
want.” Special orders typically take six to eight
weeks.
Demand Solutions sits in the middle of this hub
“But as we grow the number of SKUs,”
and spoke distribution system.
“We take the demand we have built for an item
quality furniture at low prices, it can’t afford to make
and in DS RP we create records for each service
inventory mistakes that lose customers who will drive
center location and space demand based on market
to the next store looking for the item they want or just
demand,” said Mirabito. The software assists in
go home and forget about new furniture for a year or
getting the products in demand closer to customers
so. Nor can it afford to carry a lot of inventory that
and distributes inventory across the service centers.
just sits, tying up capital and warehouse space.
Inventory control also allows the company to
For Raymour & Flaigan to compete on high
“We feed information into the system and we
plan its shipping and make the best use of square
have to make sure our lead times are accurate,”
footage at each service center. The supply chain group
Mirabito said. “We have a lot of confidence in the
has begun exploring ways to use order queuing to
ordering system. Once we put information into it we
DS Magazine
11
Raymour & Flanigan
Raymour & Flanigan is proud to carry three Cindy Crawford suites.
“When it comes to decorating, do you want people to think you have great style, or you’re smart because
It’s beautiful, sensible,
inspired…a perfect blend of fashion, design and real value.
you saved a lot of money? With my Home collection you get both.
As for the price? Who needs to know?”
—Cindy Crawford
know the numbers that come out are good.”
the factory just before the festivities begin.
When an item is out of stock, sales associates
sofas today for arrival three weeks from now?” asked
isn’t available in three days, the associate will show
Mirabito. “Paul Secraw, from Demand Solutions
them similar pieces that are in stock, or check the
was integral in teaching us what the system does. We
GERS retail system to learn when the next blue sofa
have made changes in the way we forecast and now
they want will be available. Raymour & Flanigan
we are getting better information into the system.”
trains sales staff for 350 hours their first year,
so they know the furniture, how it is made, how
cyclical business. Mirabito begins with the sales
long special orders will take and what comparable
history and then layers in proposed advertising
alternatives are available when an item is out of
and media inserts which will provide a 10 percent
stock.
increase on any item in the promotion. The business
Still, the whole purpose of Demand Solutions
has broad trends that are highly consistent—leather
is to make sure the sales associate can deliver
sells more in the fall, while dining room sets are
what a customer wants. Although the lead times
popular in the weeks ahead of Thanksgiving as
from Asia have been brought under control by
people begin to critically examine their existing
the transportation department, the supply chain
group must monitor potential shipping delays
That means looking at historical trends in a
furniture ahead of holiday entertaining.
Sales go up when the weather is bad, but not
around holidays, like the pre-Christmas jams
too bad. If couples are stuck at home on a rainy day
that brought the Long Beach, CA port to a
they take notice of ragged looking furniture and head
halt a few years ago, and they have to pay
attention to Asian holiday schedules, like
the Chinese New Year.
The company recently upgraded
out to shop.
“The more that customers are in front of their
living room furniture, the better the chance they will
want to upgrade.”
DS RP about 18 months ago and
When the weather is great, they’re more likely
through that process the supply chain
to be outdoors and not so worried about how their
group learned more about the system’s
home’s interior looks. But when it’s really lousy
capabilities, such as how to manage
weather,—snow and ice—they stay home, and
global calendars using a feature called
even if they notice the place looks dated, they don’t
Time Phase Safety Time, which allows a firm
venture out to replace dining tables, sofas, or tables.
importing from China to plan its ordering around
All this makes Mirabito’s life interesting. When
the Chinese New Year factory closings. The
we talked to him, forecasters – weather forecasters,
application prompts a retailer to send in orders far
that is—were predicting a nor’easter for the
enough ahead of the holiday to avoid swamping
“What does it mean when I have to order 20
pick up the slack. If the blue sofa a customer wants
weekend.
Raymour & Flanigan
How Raymour & Flanigan
Use Demand Solutions
review shows that the stores have already
my trending. I have to account for the fact
The merchandising, ad and marketing
are cutting into the safety margin for that
that an item wasn’t here for me to deliver, so
teams go out to the market and decide what
item. In day to day operations, the supply
you have to throw in a little intuition.”
Raymour & Flanigan will carry, and then
chain group lets Demand Solutions run the
lost
determine what pieces to advertise and
routine reordering, and operators manage
opportunities—they don’t come back. The
update the supply chain group on its plans.
the exceptions.
retail sales that don’t occur when a winter
Ad and marketing departments work with
storm hits won’t result in a surge after the
them.
fed into the store’s retail system and from
sun shines again – they are gone for good.
there orders go out to suppliers.
That’s why it is so important for a firm like
want to promote, then my group will work
Raymour & Flanigan to have items ready
on the getting the product into the forecast
to manage by exception,” said Paul Secraw,
for immediate delivery—customers who
for the extra demand; it is a very integrated
a principal in Demand Solutions Northeast.
can’t get what they want might shop the
process.”
“You want to let the system handle the items
competition, or they might just return home,
The supply chain group is just five
that it can; computers are good at ‘always’,
settle into a worn sofa to watch the new
people who have access to Demand
and people are good at ‘sometimes’. A
plasma TV they picked up with their savings
Solutions. Access is limited to avoid any
system like Demand Solutions can call
from not buying a new living room set.
unintended changes to the data. The group
out the exceptions that are important so
shares information by exporting from
the planners can supply their ‘sometimes’
Demand Solutions to Excel and sending that
expertise. Raymour is very good at defining
around, although it is also exploring other
a set of action messages that are high
reporting options within Demand Solutions.
priority, and then know how to review those
messages and stay on top of things.”
“That will put a brake on transport. If I
run out and lose stock for a week, I have to
remember that when I go back and look at
In
retailing,
lost
sales
are
In retailing, lost sales
are lost opportunities—
they don’t come back.
“Once they let us know what they
Deploying Demand Solutions through a
sold 30, it adjusts the demand and might
decide to reorder immediately because sales
Output from Demand Solutions RP is
“They have found the key touchpoints
Citrix thin client means the data is stored in
helping
a single location and members of the supply
A brand new SKU is often very volatile in
Raymour & Flanigan hit 98.5 percent in
chain group can access the information from
its first three months, and the group has no
inventory availability levels, what more can
office, warehouse, service center or home.
history it can rely on to forecast demand.
it ask of the supply chain group?
“They want a tighter forecast,” said
information is reviewed every other week
double what you forecast, that makes it very
Mirabito, and they are willing to pay for
to check accuracy of forecasts. Information
difficult to catch up again. But because the
it. “The company is unique in that we are
on inventory comes from the store’s retail
company is willing to invest in inventory,
willing to invest in inventory and capital to
system, GERS. It supplies a snapshot of
we will keep a higher level of safety stock
service the customer at 98.5 or 99 percent,
current inventory to DS RP. The supply
on a new item. We will buy up to a month’s
but we also make a decision not to just
chain managers can then take that forecast
worth of stock in a new item and we will do
buy inventory for its own sake. There is a
and automatically generate the purchase
more than a weekly order if needed.”
balance to strike between service levels
orders to get the right products to the right
and inventory turns. The company asks
place. Demand Solutions allows the supply
my group to make that balance work. They
chain group to set parameters and issue
want us to keep inventory turns as high as
an exception report if an item is running a
possible, at 12-15 turns a year, and we want
certain percentage above or below forecast.
comparable turns from the service centers to
The group uses Month-to-Date sales in
keep the inventory flowing.”
Demand Solutions to look for any SKU that
With
Demand
Solutions
Ordering
is
done
weekly,
and
Items new to inventory are different.
“You can plan and plan, but if it sells
has varied from the forecast. If it expected
40 to sell during the month and the two-week
DS Magazine
13
Dyrup
Getting Ready for Summer:
Managing Paint Inventory
W
hen new Supply Chain Vice President
upcoming promotion, that information in many cases
Henrik D. S. Nielsen joined Dyrup in
never made it to the ERP system.
2003, the Denmark-based paint and stain
Since France had been using a forecasting
manufacturer, he quickly decided that the company
system for six years, their system looked to be an
didn’t actually have a forecasting procedure. And in
obvious choice. Dyrup evaluated it and a number
a seasonal business with long lead times this was a
of other systems, talked to users and listened to
serious problem.
vendors.
The exception was the company’s division
Andersen found the conversations intriguing.
in France which was using a French forecasting
One software vendor couldn’t believe that intelligent
system.
forecasting systems, which could review data
“It was effective, quite a tool,” said Bjoern B.
and suggest the appropriate model, even existed.
Andersen, Demand Manager at Dyrup. The new vice
Nonetheless, the vendor persisted in promoting his
president wanted a standard procedure for forecasting
system, which had no intelligence but could create
across the company and a better connection to the
excellent graphs.
ERP systems. Outside France, forecasting in the
Dyrup group consisted of local discussions around
appeared to be more flexible and it was a far better
Excel spreadsheets containing historical and budget
value proposition,” said Andersen. One of the main
information. If someone from sales suggested the
issues was the estimated time for consultants.
company might sell more of a product because of an
“We chose Demand Solutions because it
Once Dyrup had selected Demand Solutions the
Dyrup
company rolled out a uniform approach to forecasting
take only an hour or two, since the Demand Solutions
across all its regional groups. The forecasting
users have done all the forecast work.
initiative exposed some problems in the way the
company managed its data.
spend just four hours per month on a forecast of good
quality.”
“We had to work quite intensely for a long period
“So sales and marketing managers generally
to align data, connecting items into product families,
such as covering wood stain, with all its colors and
Demand Solutions was quick to
implement and most importantly, easy
to use. The other advantage of Demand
Solutions was its European network of
consultants geared to implement and
support their product.
can sizes.”
Along with implementing the Demand Solutions
software, Dyrup organized a process around it to
develop better forecasts.
1) The Demand Solutions group uploads
the latest sales information, cleans the data, produces new statistical forecasts and
distributes them to Key Accounts (KA)
team members.
The monthly meetings led to the discovery that
one of Dyrup’s bigger divisions used its ERP system
2) Together with the local forecaster, the KA
incorrectly, which in turn led to poor fill rates. By
for a specific group evaluates his data using
using DS FM, the company could locate the gaps and
the Demand Solutions feedback system.
correct them. For example, even when it had enough
paint to meet orders, it sometimes didn’t have enough
3) After reporting back the adjusted forecast,
cans to put the paint in.
a big forecast meeting takes place: In these
meetings sales, marketing, logistics, KAs
pay substantial penalty fees to some of its largest
and product managers together with a
customers, on top of the lost revenues it would have
representative from Dyrup’s customer
earned if it had had enough paint and stain to meet
service center are present.
the demand. This year it has an almost perfect service
“We work online with shared forecast information
Because of missed fills, Dyrup has had to
level.
Although the most popular way to measure the
projected for everyone to see all product families. Up
effects of a forecasting system is to look at inventory
to 80 percent of our turnover is evaluated. The spinoff
reduction, Dyrup has grown its inventory ahead of its
is fantastic, as we experience a lot of pop-ups where
high season. And that’s a good thing, said Andersen,
people remember to share important information
when a company is in a business that has to respond
about campaigns, listing or delisting of customers
to the unpredictability of weather patterns. or products. Our logistics manager may receive 300
emails a day, but during the meetings as we move
you do not stain if your wood is covered by ice and
through the structured evaluation, information is
it is still winter outside, he explained.” “Because of
distributed to the entire group, and that is actually
that we didn’t build up stock to catch up with the
quite fun. Then when our new monthly forecasts are
aggregated consumer need, we just followed the
finalized, both our ERP and Data Warehouse systems
system-suggested minimum stocks. Suddenly the
are updated. This is a way to become a better and
sun was coming and we could not catch up with
more profitable company.”
sales. We have changed our way of thinking about
pre-production and stocking patterns, and we think
Although Andersen admits this may sound time-
consuming, the pre-meeting and big meeting each
“Last year we had an April of snow and ice and
that our stock turnover will increase.”
DS Magazine
15
XANGO
Delivering
Nutrition
Supplement
to a Fast-Growing Global Market
X
anGo, based in Utah, is the
when the company begins selling in a new market,
first
said Brian Wilson, Senior Manager, Supply Chain
a
company
premium
to
market
mangosteen
“Every time we go into a new market we look
worldwide. A delicious daily dietary
at how previous markets have behaved in terms of
supplement, XanGo® Juice harnesses
demand. We take the historical data we have and
the nutritional attributes of the whole
compare it to the new market. Then we will sit down
mangosteen fruit. Mangosteen is a
with the country manager, who often tends to have a
delicate fruit from Southeast Asia that
pretty good feel from the people they talk to and the
must be processed within three days of
picking. The fruit is sent to bottling plants
enthusiasm they are already getting.”
The
company
uses
Demand
Solutions
in frozen drums, mixed, processed, bottled,
Requirements Planning and Forecast Management.
and then distributed in a growing number of
He finds the forecasting relatively straightforward
countries around the world through multi-
once a new region is up and running, but when the
tier organizations that start with meetings in
company goes into new markets, forecasting requires
individual homes.
some good professional judgment as well.
A bottle of XanGo juice retails for $37.50
in the US, but just one to three ounces
growth because it is driven by word of mouth and
a day provides an intake of “xanthones
you can get a lot of excitement. People will sign up,
[that] possess potent antioxidant properties
get very excited, and then sales start taking off. To
that may help maintain intestinal health,
manage that, we use Safety Stock and Safety Time
strengthen the immune system, neutralize
in Demand Solutions and factor that against the
free radicals, help support cartilage and
different demand risks, one of which is a strong
joint function, and promote a healthy
increase in sales.” Because the product is heavy,
seasonal respiratory system,” says the
the company tries to use trucks and ocean freight
Systems at XanGo.
beverage, XanGo® Juice to consumers
“Our biggest challenge is predicting sales
company on its Web site.
rather than air, which would drive up costs, so it is
A reader can see the market
important to get the forecasts right. For new markets
potential and the forecasting challenges.
it stocks the juice at points along the way – in the
It’s especially difficult to forecast
country, in neighboring countries, and uses reserves
XANGO
We haven’t found a situation yet where we haven’t been able to model our
logistics flow in the system. It is easy to make a copy, make changes, try
a new scenario and come up with a solution. It’s much more flexible than
Oracle systems I have experience with.
in the US in case demand soars beyond forecasts.
because Wilson and Bower had worked together
before and knew what was required.
XanGo centralizes its operations in Utah, sends
the product in bulk containers to national or regional
distribution centers that then ship cases of it to the
Solutions provides. When the company wants to try
local distributors. It is not sold at retail outlets. Beside
a new scenario, he makes a copy of the database and
the juice the company sells some T-shirts, sweatshirts
runs “what ifs” against it.
and hats with the company logo and literature for
distributors to use.
haven’t been able to model our logistics flow in the
Wilson likes the flexibility that Demand
“We haven’t found a situation yet where we
For a fast growing company, Demand Solutions
system. It is easy to make a copy, make changes, try a
makes it easy to add new distribution points within
new scenario and come up with a solution. It’s much
the software. Wilson appreciates that it handles
more flexible than Oracle systems I have experience
distribution and bill of materials planning in the same
with.”
system, so when the company is setting up a new
warehouse and has to draw from another warehouse,
added. The training went smoothly and they said
manufacture some of the new stock, or assemble a kit,
it was easier than other systems and the logic was
it’s very easy to put all those activities into Demand
straightforward.
Solutions, unlike most competing systems.
and Jeff Bower has been excellent, he added.
Wilson had used Demand Solutions before,
New users also found it easy to understand, he
As XanGo uses the system, the support from Ed
at a computer parts company where he had worked
with Ed Bower, the Demand Solutions Sales Rep
jump in and give ideas, and they don’t
in the Northwest. When XanGo wanted to see what
charge for every minute you are
Demand Solutions could do, it sent Ed Bower some
on the phone with them. They are
data. Within hours he was on the phone ready to run a
willing to sit down with us and
demonstration of the system.
put scenarios together. The Demand
Solutions after-sales service has been
“He modeled it in a couple of hours, which
“They are very helpful, willing to
made a good impression on the decision makers
incredible.”
that Demand Solutions was a good solution.”
Implementation of the full system also went well;
it was up and running 30 days after the sale, in part
DS Magazine
17
Pipeline Flexalloy
Acquiring an
Unexpected Benefit
—Flexalloy and Avdel® Collaborate Globally via DS Pipeline
F
lexalloy, Inc. and Avdel® Fasteners, sister
divisions of Acument™ Global Technologies,
reliable 71% in early 2005, Hess’ team focused their
have
recently
Demand
efforts on strengthening the demand management
Solutions Pipeline product into their demand
process to include; exception based control reporting,
management process. The DS Pipeline collaboration
DS Weeks integration, MRP/DRP feed automation,
tool, along with Flexalloy’s DS FM expertise, have
safety stock optimization, customer and supplier
enabled a globalization of the forecast process across
collaboration (including EDI), SI&OP reviews, and
Avdel’s® European and North American distribution
an in-house forecast communication network.
and manufacturing entities.
a full service global fastener
by Robin Rosenstiel, Avdel® Manager of Material
distributor headquartered in Streetsboro, Ohio,
Excellence and Continuous Improvement, was
provides
application
tasked with a DFSS Six Sigma project to “design an
engineering, quality and engineering and point
ERP independent demand management process and
of production services. It has been using DS FM
IT application that supports the demand management
since 2000 with unparalleled success. Since Ken
for Avdel® products globally.” Avdel® is a world
Hess joined Flexalloy as Manager of Demand
leading supplier of blind fastening solutions with
Management and Planning in 2002, when the
global distribution and manufacturing facilities in
company was a division of Textron Fastening
15 countries on all continents. Avdel® supplies blind
Systems, he and his team of Senior Supply Chain
fasteners directly to 13,000 customers with more
Analysts have been responsible for a rise of forecast
than 5,000 different items. Based on the measured
accuracy from 48% to 90%, an inventory reduction
successes and efficiencies within the Flexalloy
of 27%, customer order fill rate increase to 98%, and
Demand Management and Forecasting process, Ken
premium freight expense reductions of 75%.
Hess recommended utilizing Demand Solutions
Flexalloy,
demand
integrated
management,
the
Once the forecast accuracy metric reached a
In the fall of 2005, an Avdel® global team lead
Pipeline Flexalloy
software along with his team’s expertise
extremely beneficial and flexible feature,
in demand management and forecasting.
allowing central corporate data views and
successful implementation, will be to
Early in 2006, a plan was developed to
aggregations, while allowing remote users
continue fine tuning the process and monitor
mirror Flexalloy’s forecasting successes by
the ability to define their own personal
forecast performance measurements. When
incorporating demand management across
views, hierarchies, information selection,
forecast accuracy is optimal, part forecasts
Avdel’s® North American, European and
data time frames and even their personal
will be integrated with each operation’s
Asian/South Pacific facilities.
preferences for the look and color of their
ERP/MRP and capacity planning processes.
The objective was clear: Implement
screen. DS Pipeline’s features enable users
Now that the company has purchased
a proven, user friendly and timely demand
to quickly and easily make critical forecast
additional DS FM licenses, Hess and his
management
revisions, translating to improved forecast
team will turn over the remaining processing
performance and, ultimately world class
for the Avdel® forecasting to Rosenstiel.
manufacturing operations. Rollout required
customer service.”
the Flexalloy Team’s expertise to centrally
To demonstrate the potential of the
at Flexalloy for its original purpose—to
develop the initial DS FM forecasts
Pipeline software, coupled with the DS FM
improve internal collaboration. “We have
(including DS FM parameter settings,
process, Hess and Rosenstiel initially tested
five distribution facilities in North America
forecast logic, history feeds and monthly
and implemented at the Avdel® Stanfield,
and even though we have been using
Avdel®
North Carolina facility. Both agreed, “That
Demand Solutions for years, we have yet
global sales and operations personnel to
the Pipeline software and implementation
to provide a way for each of the Flexalloy
apply business intelligence to the item and
process proved extremely user friendly and
distribution facilities to have a direct say in
family level forecasts.
provided an efficient coordination between
the forecast. They are the eyes and ears of
Demand Solutions Pipeline collaboration
planning,
manufacturing,
the customers, so I plan to roll out Pipeline
tool was the obvious choice to provide the
operations, sales, marketing and plant
to each of the distribution facilities and
needed remote client inputs into the demand
management.
provide a direct collaborative link to the
management process.
process was married with an item level
forecast.”
for
and
Avdel’s®
forecasting
global
process
distribution
processing), while allowing the
and
The Web based
distribution,
In
essence,
the
SI&OP
The next steps, similar to Flexalloy’s
Hess’ team will continue to use Pipeline
“DS Pipeline offers major advantages
forecast. Web based forecast collaboration
over the other collaboration tools currently
and aggregation was quickly replacing
AcumentTM Global Technologies, Inc. is a
offered in the market,” said Hess. “The
spreadsheets.”
leading provider of value-based fastening
primary plus is that Pipeline mimics the
same look and feel as DS FM and integrates
returned from a concentrated training
state-of-the-art
seamlessly to DS FM.
and
and
technology, and inventory management
including
same
This familiarity,
terminologies,
and
Rosenstiel
implementation
Pipeline
solutions, engineered fastening systems,
fastening
installation
throughout Europe. All of the
and application engineering services. With
Avdel® European and North American
about 8,500 employees in 16 countries
learning curves, easy navigation, and process
operations are now integrated into one
worldwide, the company supplies fastening
confidence.
demand
with
products, systems, and services to customers
tool within the DS product suite enabled
consistent database history feeds, forecast
in more than 150 countries. Platinum Equity
us to utilize implementation support from
algorithms, DS FM parameter settings,
acquired the company (formerly Textron
Caseware
ABC
Solutions
the
collaboration
Group/DS
Great
DS FM
of
recently
structures, and forecast logic, ensures short
Keeping
data
Hess
Headquartered in Troy, Mich., USA,
management
stratification,
process;
forecast
accuracy
Fastening Systems, Inc.) from Textron Inc.
monthly
forecast
on August 11, 2006. Flexalloy and Avdel®
in integrating Pipeline with the existing DS
calendar adherence. Planning, Operations,
are both AcumentTM Global Technologies
FM processes. Additionally, the Microsoft
and Product Managers are now focused
companies.
SQL Server and Web-based architecture
on reflection of customer projections and
provides for user friendly, yet appropriately
industry trends through Pipeline Client;
detailed, monitoring and tracking tools for
while confident that the behind the scenes
the Pipeline Administrator and Clients. The
algorithm selections and technical software
forest and trees hierarchical structure is an
applications are optimized with DS FM.
Lakes, particularly Dan Baksa’s expertise
measurements,
and
DS Magazine
19
COLLABORATION Leaders Forum
Leaders Forum:
Collaboration
The world is full of great sayings about how important collaboration is to improving results. Collaboration tools from Demand Management
aim to reduce unpleasant surprises in forecasting by drawing on the knowledge of employees who work with promotion and customers
– marketing and sales. When you have to manage global operations for supply and manufacturing, with long lead times, knowing the
direction customers are going over the next 12 to 24 months is invaluable. Here’s how some Demand Solutions clients are improving their
businesses through better and wider collaboration.
Houston and Dubai and its customers are
current costs/future costs feature that helps
primarily the company’s field locations
the company better tie forecasts to the
which provide service to its end customers.
business plan. a “I see a lot of potential in
Collaborate,” he concluded.
The company has recently installed
Demand Solutions Requirements Planning
DS Collaborate
supports Smith
International’s SOX
compliance process.
and begun training staff in Collaborate.
Eric Story, manager of support services
at Smith, anticipates using Collaborate in
40-50 installations. Early indications are that
the company will be able to reduce the next
year’s forecast requirements by 25 percent,
or $30 million.
One of the biggest values from Collaborate
Story likes the fact that Collaborate is
is in Sarbanes-Oxley compliance, he
Web-based; the company’s previous tool
added. Within Collaborate, the company
stored information locally on a PC which
can designate levels of authority, such as a
made it difficult for managers to approve
regional manager and tie approval levels to
and sign off on forecasts. Moving files back
the Delegation of Authority for inventory
and forth between field offices and Houston
build. With Collaborate, the company can
often led to duplication of information,
show that purchases followed delegation
>>Smith International, Inc., a leading global
data corruption, or loss of files. When your
authority and it can provide audits of
supplier of premium products and services
lead time for raw materials can run to 9
approvals.
to the oil, gas, and petrochemical industry is
months for specialty steel and customers
a critical partner with its customers in their
can’t operate without your parts, glitches in
managers at different levels of the company
exploration and production. It maintains
the forecasts are a serious problem. Smith
can review forecasts. A very high value
some of its inventory on oil rigs so parts
International has already cut lead times
order can be sent to the president for
are immediately available, which is pretty
with the Demand Solutions software and as
approval with no modifications to the
important when a rig can be costing several
manufacturing becomes more familiar with
software.
hundred thousand dollars a day to operate.
it, Story expects results to improve even
Because Collaborate is Web-based,
The application sits on two servers
more.
in Houston, providing redundancy and
Solutions, Smith International uses the
The field offices have been enthusiastic
backup—a relief for Story whose team had
software
Unlike
many
users
of
Demand
consumption—to
about Collaborate while managers are
just spent a month rebuilding 42 months of
manage the sale of parts and supplies within
pleased to be getting more information
data that was corrupted when a hard drive
the firm. The company manufactures in
about forecast accuracy. Story likes the
was damaged.
for
internal
“Individual commitment to a group effort – that is what makes a team
work, a company work, a society work, a civilization work.”
—Vince Lombardi
>>When a large percentage of your product
have, and what they see happening in the
50 percent, he said. For now, he thinks
becomes obsolete every 12 months, you
marketplace.
his group will stick with the weekly calls
don’t want to get your inventory wrong.
rather than turn to technology for improved
That’s why Day-Timer uses Demand
companies because you are constantly
collaboration.
Solutions
(DS
talking and sharing information. It’s not like
FM), Requirements Planning (DS RP) and
the old days when retailers hated to share
system for collaboration, but they have
Electronic Demand Solutions Interface
information with vendors.”
since scrapped it.
(EDSI).
Also, when a large part of your business
Demand Solutions into Excel and emails
savvy,” he explained. “If we can get by
comes from a few major office supply
it to the customer, which usually has
with the spreadsheet, the phone calls, and
chains, and your lead time ranges from three
representatives from buying, marketing,
the occasional visit we don’t need to teach
to six months, you need more than forecast
replenishment and inventory on the weekly
people new software.”
modeling to manage your supply chain.
call. At Day-Timers, Inc., the marketing
people also are on the call and everyone
Forecast
Management
For Steve Blasek, who is in charge
“This strengthens relationships between
He
downloads
information
from
of retail forecasting and collaboration for
joins to work on the forecast.
Day-Timers, Inc., a subsidiary of ACCO
Brands Corporation, this challenge has led
don’t want to be out of stock on product,
to weekly calls between his staff and key
and we don’t want them to be out of stock.
accounts.
It’s a very competitive field and as the high
“It helps us, and it helps them. They
“We have done it to get closer to the
quality producer we can’t always compete
end customer and smooth out any bumps in
on price, so we compete on customer
the supply chain,” he explained. “A lot of our
service.
products are sourced overseas, we have long
lead times, and we are always developing
about
new products, like Pink Ribbon products
information
that support breast cancer research.”
properly.”
So he wants to know what is going
on with the customer, what plans they
“Marketing people know very little
replenishment,
doesn’t
and
get
sometimes
One customer of Day-Timers had a
“People are not equally technology
The Day Timers
initiative was a
catalyst to prompt
the customer to get
their own marketing
and inventory
replenishment people
communicating.
disseminated
The weekly calls have been a major
factor in reducing overall inventory by
DS Magazine
21
>>When you’re selling RF semiconductors
doing forecasting, likes it much more.”
& Optoelectronics to manufacturers of
end items such as cell phones and GPS
managers have easy access to the forecast
devices, inventory management can make
data and that has encouraged the salesmen
the difference between a great year and
to do a better job of data entry. She finds
miserable financial results. In the fast-
pros and cons to the collaboration tool.
moving technology world, a warehouse can
lose a substantial part of its value when the
in the budget process and that worked very
next generation device is launched.
well. “Before, using spreadsheets, it was
really painful.”
“It changes on a dime,” said Beth
Adames,
senior
corporate
planning
With
Collaborate,
senior
sales
On the pro side, the company used it
The drawback is that the company has
manager at the Santa Clara, CA-based firm.
had to customize Collaborate to achieve
“Statistical forecasting with some of our
functionality which she thinks should have
major volatile customers and/or parts is not
been native – future unit cost and prices
always very useful, so we will do manual
changes.
forecasts for some of them. We statistically
forecast the 20 percent of our parts that
customize gross margin and revenue from
make up 80 percent of our sales using DS
that, and it was a lot of work. If you forecast
FM and DS Collaborate.” Her group aims
for 12 months in semiconductors you will
to keep obsolete inventory to a minimum
face price pressure, and you need to be able
while making sure it has the products that
to forecast those changes.”
“We had to customize that and then
its customers want, when they want them.
So California Eastern Labs, a subsidiary
of NEC, has been using Demand Solutions
Forecast Management for years. Now it has
rolled out DS Collaborate.
Adames said the company is trying to
improve the accuracy of its forecasts, and it
wants to pull the 10 members of the sales
team who are responsible for forecasting
more deeply into the process.
“DSC is Web-based, which makes it
easier. DS FM required a lot of importing
and exporting. The sales people don’t like to
do forecasting to begin with, so you want to
make it easy for them to use.”
“The sales people would never like
doing forecasting, but if they have to do
it, they like Demand Solutions Collaborate
much better than DS FM,” she added.
“Marketing, which spends a lot more time
Collaborate has resulted in improved
communications between marketing
and sales because everyone is
looking at the same data.
EMPLOYEE Spotlight
Customer Support
Demand Solutions Employee Spotlight: Bryan Dahlfors
Company Offers Process Improvement Along With Functional How-To
Bryan Dahlfors is part of a worldwide support
organization servicing 10,000 Demand Solutions
users in 70 countries.
C
simple fix. It might take 10 minutes or it
with product families or with sales and
might take half an hour but when someone
operations planning? They know how the
says: ‘Oh, you just saved my life,’ well, that
software operates, so now they are looking
is the best part of my job.”
for best practices. Those are the best kinds
Even though the tools are simple to
of calls because you get to learn about the
use, people new to Demand Solutions need
company, and you can ask all different kinds
some time to absorb the concepts underlying
of questions.”
the software. Then, as users become more
familiar with the system, they begin to
Dahlfors brings to his work. Self-taught in
realize how to maximize the business
computers, he is just a semester away from
benefit, he explains.
finishing a course in computer science that
he took to learn the topic in a structured and
“Much of the time, we’re replacing a
Non-stop
curiosity
is
a
quality
spreadsheet. Our customers are typically
comprehensive way.
successful manufacturers or distributors
who need a tool better than a spreadsheet but
experience, and I have been sitting at this
“I have over 26 years of manufacturing
don’t want to invest millions in IT-intensive
help desk for seven years now. Over that
Solutions receives high grades from
supply chain software,” he says.
time you start to build up an understanding
customers—more than 90 percent
of where the users are coming from.”
ustomer
Service
at
Demand
Dahlfors explains that people tend
said they were satisfied with the responses
to buy the software for a specific need.
they received.
Once that need is satisfied and the end-user
users,
Bryan Dahlfors is a member of the
becomes more familiar with the tools, they
professionals. Dahlfors has noticed that
customer service team. “The key to success
want to drill deeper and realize the next level
companies are asking for far more reporting
when you work on a help desk is being
of efficiency which prompts the next level
from Demand Solutions. Where once
able to stand in the other guy’s shoes,”
of support calls. “Our group functions like
executives seemed content with the forecast
says Dahlfors, who is a Customer Service
on-call business advisors; the software itself
performance from the previous month, now
Manager.
drives new and better business processes
they want to see inventory value, safety
and we help our customers figure out how
stock calculations, and the cost of carrying
on the help desk at Demand Solutions for
best to optimize their investment,” he says.
inventory.
just seven years, he has been a user of the
software since 1991.
found a way to use the software to solve
supply chain or collaboration to small- or
a particular business issue, and I wind up
mid-sized businesses most people would just
shoes because I used to do their job. I sat at
doing cross-fertilization of best practices.”
scratch their heads. Now senior managers
their desk with the boss breathing down my
at even the smallest companies want to
neck asking: WHERE’S THE REPORT!”
more about business than technology.
get down to the nitty gritty of forecasting
“The calls I like best are not about
and inventory management. A lot of that
questions, and emotions, on help desk calls.
how the software works but about industry
has occurred in the last 10-15 years as
“They might call in a fever but after
standards. How does the industry deal with
companies are doing everything they can to
we understand the question, it is usually a
performance metrics, how does it deal
save money.”
Not a problem. Although he’s been
“It is easy for me to put myself in their
He’s become familiar with the flow of
“I talk with customers who have
Maybe that’s why his favorite calls are
Most of his callers are the software
the
analysts
and
forecasting
“Ten years ago if you talked about
DS Magazine
23
How Come I Have Excess Inventory?
Why Was The Forecast Wrong Again?
It’s a demanding world out there.
Demand Solutions software is practical and easy
to use with outstanding levels of functionality,
implementations within 90 days and a return on
investment within nine months.
If this problem is all too familiar, call us today:
1/800 886 3737
EMEA HQ +44 (0) 20 8770 9320
demandsolutions.com
A/PAC HQ +61 2 9659 4555
FORECASTING / REPLENISHMENT / COLLABORATION / S&OP / RETAIL PLANNING