06_NextGen File

NextGen
&
National Weather Service
Michael Graf
Office of Climate, Water & Weather Services
National Weather Service
Overview
NextGen
Weather in NextGen
Common Challenges
2
NextGen—Why?
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within
the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The
The Federal
Federal Aviation
Aviation Administration
Administration (FAA)
(FAA) has
has
determined
determined two
two thirds
thirds of
of this
this is
is preventable
preventable
with
with better
better weather
weather information
information
"A key finding, based on an analysis
of several 2005-2006 convective
events, is that as much as two-thirds
of the weather related delay
is potentially avoidable."
-Research, Engineering and Development
Advisory Committee; Report of the
Weather-ATM Integration Working Group;
Oct3, 2007
NextGen—Big Picture
4
The 4-D Weather Data Database
A Conceptual Model
Observations
Private
Private Sector
Sector
Forecasting
Numerical
Numerical Modeling
Modeling
Systems
Systems
Satellites
Satellites
Statistical
Statistical Forecasting
Forecasting
Systems
Systems
Radars
Radars
NWS
NWS
Forecaster
Forecaster
4-D Wx
Database
4D Wx
SAS
Aircraft
Aircraft
Forecast
Forecast Systems
Systems
Surface
Surface
Forecast
Forecast Integration
Integration
Soundings
Soundings
Decision
Decision
Support
Support
Systems
Systems
Custom
Custom
Graphic
Graphic
Generators
Generators
Custom
Custom
Alphanumeric
Alphanumeric
Generators
Generators
Integration into User Decisions
5
Single Authoritative Source
The 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Database
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space
(NAS) participants (Airlines, Military, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by
Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data,
automated gridded algorithms, climatology
and observational data, and meteorologist
input/data manipulation to ensure
consistency and accuracy
FAA and NWS collaboratively determine contents of
SAS subject to FAA air traffic management needs
6
NextGen Weather Transformation
Weather Now
Weather Under NextGen
• Not integrated into aviation
decision support systems (DSS)
• Totally integrated into DSS
• Often inconsistent/conflicting
information on a national scale
• Nationally consistent weather
information
• Low temporal resolution for
aviation decision making
purposes
• High temporal resolution
• Disseminated in minutes
• Disseminated in seconds
• Updated by schedule
• Updated by events
• Fixed product formats (graphic
or text)
• Flexible formats
7
Common Meteorological
Challenges
Global Harmonization
Air travel is international
Transition to more automated and integrated ATM systems
requires harmonized, global scale weather and weather impacts
We need continuous international coordination to
ensure seamless weather information for air
transportation including:
Harmonized data exchange
Agreed upon governance structure
Global Harmonization
Global Harmonization
WAFS Gridded products are a current example
WAFC London and WAFC Washington working together to
harmonize WAFS gridded products
Icing,
Icing, turbulence,
turbulence, Cb
Cb
Both WAFCs using different algorithms and grid resolution for
products
WAFCs are
are working
working closely
closely on eliminating inconsistencies
Sharing
Sharing algorithms,
algorithms, feasibility
feasibility studies
studies on
on “blending”
“blending” forecasts
forecasts and
and
establishing
establishing aa common
common grid
grid
Common Meteorological
Challenges
Role of the Forecaster in adding value
Current forecast processes not designed to meet the
resolution, refresh and latency of emerging NextGen
requirements
Extending digital services in the vertical is critical
Is it realistic to expect forecasters to modify 4-D grids?
Role of the Forecaster
Role of the Forecaster
We are currently working
to develop Meteorologistin-the-Loop (MITL) and
Meteorologist-over-theLoop (MOTL) techniques
MITL – add value inside the
process, modify gridded output
with intuitive GUI
MOTL – add value before
models are run, model output
oversight
Change in Forecast Process
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
Decision
Decision Support
Support
30
30
25
25
Scientific
Scientific
Interpretation
Interpretation
20
20
15
15
Drawing/Writing/
Drawing/Writing/
Editing
Editing
10
10
55
00
Now
Now
2016
2016
2022
2022
2025
2025
Forecast process progression represents combined aviation weather support.
These numbers are estimates only!
Changes in the Forecast Process
NWS outlined a vision to address the forecast
process challenge
Higher resolution, storm resolving models
New situational awareness and decision assistance
tools
Tools which enable forecasters to determine when,
where, and how to add value
Improved real-time verification
Changes in the Forecast Process
We need a holistic solution to address the
forecast process:
Not only providing aviation weather services but
meteorological information to other service areas
including climate, renewable energy, public, and fire
weather
End-to-end approach with coordinated partnerships
with US and with international partners
Science and Technology alone will not solve this
challenge
Summary
Both the US and Europe are pursuing common
approaches to managing air traffic
International aspects of air travel will require
harmonization of weather and its impacts
We both face common challenges that provide
opportunities to partner and work together for
success
15
Questions?