Rebel Stakes - Daily Racing Form

Transcription

SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2015
DERBY
COUNTDOWN
CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION
Rebel Stakes
WEEKEND PREVIEW
ROAD TO THE
2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
ANALYSIS
KENTUCKY DERBY
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
CLOSER LOOK
KENTUCKY DERBY
2015 POINT STANDINGS
American Pharoah
Photo by Barbara D. Livingston
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
PREVIEW 1
Rebel Stakes Preview:
American Pharoah odds-on despite layoff
By Dan Illman
Inaugurated in 1961, the Rebel Stakes has produced
some 3-year-olds who made their mark on the Triple
Crown events. Elocutionist finished second in the 1976
Rebel on his way to capturing the Preakness Stakes. Four
years later, eventual Belmont Stakes hero Temperence
Hill scored in the Rebel. In 1983, Sunny’s Halo took the
Rebel before winning the Kentucky Derby.
Preakness winner Pine Bluff nabbed the 1992 edition,
while 1998 Rebel champ Victory Gallop spoiled Real
Quiet’s Triple Crown bid with a thrilling Belmont Stakes
victory. Smarty Jones burst onto the national scene
in 2004 with a 112 Beyer Speed Figure while romping
in the Rebel. He would go on to dominate the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness before falling short at Belmont.
Both Curlin (2007) and Lookin At Lucky (2010) parlayed
Rebel trophies into Preakness gold, while Afleet Alex,
off the board as the 2005 Rebel favorite, won that year’s
Preakness and Belmont stakes. The 3-year-old champion
of 2013, Will Take Charge, defeated Preakness winner
Oxbow in a thrilling renewal of the Rebel.
This year’s Rebel goes directly through last year’s
2-year-old champion male, American Pharoah (4). The
two-time Grade 1 winner is the lone stakes winner in
the field, is the only horse in the race that has earned a
triple-digit Beyer (he has two), and looms as the controlling speed for a barn that has won this race in four of the
past five years (Hoppertunity, 2014; Secret Circle, 2012;
The Factor, 2011; Lookin At Lucky, 2010).
American Pharoah beat a good field in the Grade 1
FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on Sept. 27. The
runner-up, Calculator, returned to win his maiden in
the Grade 3 Sham Stakes with a 98 Beyer, while the third
finisher, Texas Red, came back to take the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile with a 104 Beyer. Fourth-place finisher Lord
Nelson returned to defeat Texas Red in the Grade 2 San
Vicente Stakes on Feb. 1.
American Pharoah was withdrawn from the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile the Tuesday before the race due to a bruised
left front foot. While the lengthy layoff prior to the Rebel
is cause for some concern, he has been training swiftly at
Santa Anita. He is definitely the horse to beat at a short
price.
The Truth Or Else (1) looks to be on the improve for
trainer Ken McPeek. The Yes It’s True colt earned two
graded placings last year when well beaten in both the
Champagne and Nashua stakes and was totally compromised in the Remsen by the inside speed-favoring nature
of the Aqueduct surface that afternoon.
Most recently, The Truth Or Else made his seasonal
debut in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on
Feb. 22. Racing with Lasix for the first time, The Truth Or
Else made a solid wide move only to finish three-quarters
of a length shy to the razor-sharp Far Right.
A late runner, The Truth Or Else needs a fast pace for
his stretch kick to be effective. That could be a problem
in the Rebel, a race lacking speed runners other than
American Pharoah. Upgrade his chances if the track is
wet Saturday.
Madefromlucky (2) ships in from Gulfstream Park for
Todd Pletcher. A winner of his last two races, Madefromlucky owns improving Beyers. He pressed a slow pace en
route to the recent optional-claiming win at nine furlongs
and could be the one to track American Pharoah in the
Rebel. It’s dangerous to simply dismiss a Pletcher-trained
runner in a major stakes race, and Madeforlucky has a
interesting pedigree. By Lookin At Lucky, he is out of a
full sister to Grade 1 winner and top stallion Tapit.
Bold Conquest (5) is expected to improve in his second
start of the year for three-time Rebel-winning trainer
Steve Asmussen (Curlin, 2007; Windward Passage, 2002;
Snuck In, 2000). A rallying fourth in the Southwest, Bold
Conquest is another who might need pace help up front.
He’s from the family of Grade 1 winner Jersey Town, and
Asmussen historically has good numbers going second
off the layoff.
Paid Admission (6) earned a career-best 85 Beyer when
second to Hillbilly Royalty in an entry-level optional
claimer at Oaklawn on Feb. 6. That rival returned to
finish fifth in the Southwest. While Paid Admission
seems to be trending upward, he never threatened at 83-1
odds in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here two back,
and his pedigree is geared toward turf racing.
Sakima (7) has yet to finish first in a race. Aided by
the stewards two back after running second in a maiden
special weight race, Sakima ran a wide fourth in his
initial start against winners, a N2L on Feb. 19. He has
paired up Beyer tops in his last two starts, often an indicator of a forward move, but he’ll need drastic Beyer
improvement to contend for the top spot. He has a classy
pedigree and might be one to watch as he matures.
Tizwonderfulcreek (3), a maiden winner on turf last
summer at Remington Park, completes the Rebel field.
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
ANALYSIS 1
Rebel Stakes Analysis
By Dan Illman
Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5
PACE SCENARIO
Early speed: American Pharoah
Pace pressers: Madefromlucky
Stalkers/midpack runners: Bold Conquest, Paid Admission, Sakima
Closers: The Truth Or Else, Tizwonderfulcreek
PACE ANALYSIS
Expect a moderate-to-slow pace. American Pharoah
went gate-to-wire in both Grade 1 wins last year and
looms as the dominant speed in the Rebel. Despite the
injury-induced layoff, it’s hard to deny the best horse
when he also owns a pace advantage.
Madefromlucky stayed close to tepid fractions when
an odds-on winner of an “N1X” optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. He could be in closest attendance to the
favorite on the backstretch.
The Truth Or Else doesn’t have much early zip. He is
an improving closer but one who could be at the mercy of
the race flow.
FORMULATOR FACTS
• Over the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert is 13-61-1 with last-out winners returning from 61-to-180-day
layoffs in dirt-route graded stakes races. Interestingly
enough, when you filter out Baffert’s home track of
Santa Anita, the numbers improve to 5-4-1-0, including
Lookin At Lucky’s victory in the 2010 Rebel. American
Pharoah fits this angle snugly.
• American Pharoah also exits a key race. He grabbed
the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on Sept.
27 and was flattered when the second-, third-, and fourthplace finishers returned to win graded stakes races with
Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 92 to 104.
• Trainer Steven Asmussen is 27-7-6-3 with a $2.77
return on investment over the past three years with
horses making the second start following a layoff in dirtroute graded stakes races. Bold Conquest will attempt to
move forward after a rallying fourth-place finish in the
Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, his seasonal debut, on Feb. 22.
• Whom did Madefromlucky beat in his recent victory
at Gulfstream? The runner-up, Quimet, came back to
finish fourth (placed third via disqualification), beaten
16 3/4 lengths, with a 76 Beyer in the $60,000 Islamorada
Handicap last week. Two other also-rans returned to
finish off the board in optional-claiming heats on grass.
• Thanks to Danza’s 41-1 upset of last year’s Arkansas
Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher sports a $12.88 ROI over the
past two seasons at Oaklawn. During that time period,
his record at Oaklawn stands at 9-4-1-0.
• Despite being by noted sprint influence Yes
It’s True, it isn’t too surprising that The Truth Or
Else appreciates route racing. After all, his dam,
Lakenheath, won the Grade 3 Arlington Matron Handicap at nine furlongs with a 105 Beyer.
SELECTIONS
1. American Pharoah
2. The Truth Or Else
3. Madefromlucky
TENTH RACE
Probable Post 6:06 CDT
1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Rebel (Grade 2). Purse: $750,000
PPHORSE
4
1
2
5
6
7
3
JOCKEY
WT.M.L.
American Pharoah..........Espinoza V..................119.........1-2
The Truth Or Else.............Borel C H.....................115.........4-1
Madefromlucky...............Velazquez J R.............115.........6-1
Bold Conquest.................Santana R Jr.............115.........8-1
Paid Admission...............Bridgmohan S X.........115.......15-1
Sakima..............................Vazquez R A................115.......20-1
Tizwonderfulcreek..........Quinonez B..................115.......30-1
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
CLOSER LOOK 1
Rebel Stakes Closer Look
THE TRUTH OR ELSE
That was an excellent effort at the course and distance
last month in the Grade 3 Southwest when rallying widest
of all. He ran a deceptive race in the Grade 2 Remsen when
an intense golden rail prevented any outside runners
from showing their true colors. The son of Grade 1 winner
Yes It’s True should be flying late if American Pharoah
sets a solid tempo and can prove to be the right value play.
MADEFROMLUCKY
He lived up to his 1-5 favoritism last month at Gulfstream but was pursuing a soft pace that day before driving clear. On race-flow theory, he draws a perfect post
here, as the rail runner is a stone closer, and this runner
should secure an ideal rail position without any stress at
all. Working extremely well at Palm Beach Downs for this
assignment, the colt should be a major late factor.
TIZWONDERFULCREEK
PAID ADMISSION
A third-start-off-the-layoff type, he could not get past
ordinary N2L runners last month, and this is a big leap
up the racing ladder. It is doubtful he can inhale the frontrunners with little route foundation in his corner. He
simply cannot be given the main vote no matter how the
early pace unfolds or the track condition at post time.
This colt finished strong to be a clear-cut second in a
high-grade optional claimer last month. He does not have
the graded-stakes experience of several of his rivals but
seems to be rounding into top form at the right moment.
He should prove to be a major late factor again given the
right pace setup.
AMERICAN PHAROAH
SAKIMA
One of several trainees from Bob Baffert pointing for
the Kentucky Derby, this colt impressed in the last pair
of victories and appears to be the controlling speed in
this event. The recent workout activity at his Santa Anita
headquarters is excellent, and if he takes to this course,
he should be the one to beat once again. An extremely
short price on the board is the only downside.
Another son of Curlin in this field, this colt moves way
up the hierarchy after an even effort against limited
winners last month. He also will have to overcome much
swifter early fractions than in the last pair of assignments. It is doubtful he can handle such a transition, especially from this outermost slot, and therefore cannot be
given the main recommendation.
– Jim Kachulis
BOLD CONQUEST
He lost significant ground when losing to The Truth Or
Else in their last matchup. A consistent performer thus
far, he should improve with that tightener under his belt
and with the sharp early pace that seems in store today.
This son of multiple champion Curlin should fare better
now since he drilled an improved half-mile only four days
ago.
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby
DATE.............. RACE........................................... DISTANCE.................. TRACK.................................. WINNER............................... BEYER..................................................................................................1ST..... 2ND..... 3RD..... 4TH
RECAP ANALYSIS RACE CHART REPLAY
Sept. 6....... Iroquois.............................. 1 1/16M .............. Churchill Downs...........Lucky Player.................. 82...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Sept. 27..... FrontRunner....................... 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita...................American Pharoah....... 101...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Oct. 4......... Breeders’ Futurity.............. 1 1/16M .............. Keeneland....................Carpe Diem................... 93...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Oct. 4......... Champagne....................... 1M ...................... Belmont........................Daredevil..................... 107...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Oct. 5......... Grey................................... 1 1/16M (S) ........ Woodbine.....................International Star........... 66...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
RECAP ANALYSIS RACE CHART
Nov. 1........ BC Juvenile........................ 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita...................Texas Red.................... 104...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Nov. 22...... Delta Downs Jackpot......... 1 1/16M .............. Delta Downs.................Ocho Ocho Ocho.......... 90...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Nov. 29...... Remsen.............................. 1 1/8M ................ Aqueduct......................Leave the Light On........ 90...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Nov. 29...... Kentucky Jockey Club....... 1 1/16M .............. Churchill Downs...........El Kabeir........................ 94...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Dec. 20...... Los Alamitos Futurity......... 1 1/16M .............. Los Alamitos.................Dortmund...................... 91...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Jan. 3......... Jerome............................... 1 mile 70 yds ...... Aqueduct......................El Kabeir........................ 95...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Jan. 10....... Sham.................................. 1M ...................... Santa Anita...................Calculator...................... 97...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Jan. 17....... Lecomte............................. 1M 70 yds .......... Fair Grounds.................International Star........... 89...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Jan. 19....... Smarty Jones..................... 1M ...................... Oaklawn Park...............Far Right........................ 89...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Jan. 24....... Holy Bull............................. 1 1/16M .............. Gulfstream....................Upstart......................... 105...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Feb. 7........ Withers............................... 1 1/16M .............. Aqueduct......................Far From Over............... 96...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Feb. 7........ Robert B. Lewis................. 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita Park...........Dortmund.................... 103...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Feb. 14...... El Camino Real Derby....... 1 1/8M (S) .......... Golden Gate.................Metaboss....................... 85...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
Feb. 22...... Southwest.......................... 1 1/16M .............. Oaklawn Park...............Far Right........................ 91...................................................................................
10.......4....... 2........1
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
Kentucky Derby Championship Series
DATE.............. RACE........................................... DISTANCE.................. TRACK...............................WINNER....................................... BEYER.............................................................................................1ST..... 2ND.....3RD... 4TH
Feb. 21...... Risen Star.......................... 1 1/16M .............. Fair Grounds..............International Star......................93...........................................................................
50.....20..... 10........5
Feb. 21...... Fountain of Youth .............. 1 1/16M .............. Gulfstream.................Upstart (DQ)/Itsaknockout....95/90...........................................................................
50.....20..... 10........5
March 7..... Gotham.............................. 1 1/16M .............. Aqueduct...................El Kabeir...................................89...........................................................................
50.....20..... 10........5
March 7..... Tampa Bay Derby.............. 1 1/16M .............. Tampa Bay Downs.....Carpe Diem..............................98...........................................................................
50.....20..... 10........5
March 7..... San Felipe.......................... 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita................Dortmund...............................104...........................................................................
50.....20..... 10........5
March 14... Rebel................................. 1 1/16M .............. Oaklawn..................................................................................................................................................... 50.....20..... 10........5
March 21... Spiral.................................. 1 1/8M (S) .......... Turfway...................................................................................................................................................... 50.....20..... 10........5
March 22... Sunland Derby .................. 1 1/8M ................ Sunland Park............................................................................................................................................. 50.....20..... 10........5
March 28... Florida Derby..................... 1 1/8M ................ Gulfstream Park....................................................................................................................................... 100.....40..... 20......10
March 28... UAE Derby......................... 1 3/16M .............. Meydan.................................................................................................................................................... 100.....40..... 20......10
March 28... Louisiana Derby................. 1 1/8M ................ Fair Grounds............................................................................................................................................ 100.....40..... 20......10
April 4........ Wood Memorial.................. 1 1/8M ................ Aqueduct................................................................................................................................................. 100.....40..... 20......10
April 4........ Santa Anita Derby.............. 1 1/8M ................ Santa Anita.............................................................................................................................................. 100.....40..... 20......10
April 4........ Blue Grass......................... 1 1/8M ................ Keeneland............................................................................................................................................... 100.....40..... 20......10
April 11...... Arkansas Derby................. 1 1/8M ................ Oaklawn Park.......................................................................................................................................... 100.....40..... 20......10
April 11...... Lexington........................... 1 1/16M............... Keeneland................................................................................................................................................. 10.......4....... 2........1
DERBY COUNTDOWN
BACK TO CONTENTS
Kentucky Derby 2015 Point Standings
(through March 10)
NON-RESTRICTED
RANK
HORSE
TRAINER
POINTS STAKES EARNINGS
NON-RESTRICTED
RANK
HORSE
TRAINER
POINTS STAKES EARNINGS
1 .......... El Kabeir ....................... John Terranova ............ 75 ..................$620,792
2 ........... International Star .......... Mike Maker .................. 71 ....................490,979
3 ........... Dortmund ...................... Bob Baffert .................. 70 ....................630,000
4 ........... Carpe Diem .................. Todd Pletcher .............. 64 ....................870,000
5 ........... Itsaknockout ................. Todd Pletcher .............. 50 ....................240,560
6 ........... Upstart .......................... Rick Violette, Jr. ........... 36 ....................615,680
7 ........... War Story ...................... Tom Amoss .................. 24 ....................120,000
8 ........... Far Right ....................... Ron Moquette .............. 22 ....................385,906
9 ........... Ami’s Flatter .................. Josie Carroll ................. 20 ......................99,200
10 ......... Prospect Park ............... Cliff Sise Jr. ................. 20 ......................80,000
............ +Tiz Shea D .................. Bill Mott ........................ 20 ......................80,000
11 ......... Mr. Z .............................. D. Wayne Lukas .......... 14 ....................518,326
12 ......... Frosted .......................... Kiaran McLaughlin ...... 13 ....................176,200
13 ......... Classy Class ................. Kiaran McLaughlin ...... 13 ......................85,000
14 ......... Texas Red ..................... Keith Desormeaux ....... 12 .................1,176,000
15 ......... Keen Ice ....................... Dale Romans ............... 12 ....................106,520
16 ......... Ocho Ocho Ocho ......... Jim Cassidy ................. 10 ....................660,250
17 ......... American Pharoah ........ Bob Baffert .................. 10 ....................360,000
18 ......... Daredevil ...................... Todd Pletcher .............. 10 ....................339,600
19 ......... Far From Over ............... Todd Pletcher .............. 10 ....................150,000
20 ......... Metaboss ...................... Jeff Bonde ................... 10 ....................126,000
21 ......... Lucky Player ................. Steve Asmussen .......... 10 ......................97,231
22 ......... Bolo ............................... Carla Gaines ................ 10 ......................94,980
............ +Divining Rod ............... Arnaud Delacour ......... 10 ......................75,000
23 ......... Frammento .................... Nick Zito ...................... 10 ......................42,000
24 ......... Firing Line ..................... Simon Callaghan ........... 8 ....................130,000
25 ......... Bold Conquest .............. Steve Asmussen ............ 7 ......................87,176
26 ......... Conquest Typhoon ....... Mark Casse ................... 6 ....................335,827
27 ......... Lord Nelson .................. Bob Baffert .................... 6 ....................228,571
28 ......... The Truth or Else ........... Kenny McPeek .............. 6 ....................136,000
29 ......... Rock Shandy ................ Peter Miller ..................... 6 ......................56,000
30 ......... St. Joe Bay .................... Peter Miller ..................... 6 ......................43,000
31 ......... Toasting Master ............ Dale Romans ................. 5 ......................21,000
32 ......... Danzig Moon ................ Mark Casse ................... 5 ......................17,500
33 ......... Bayerd .......................... Steve Asmussen ............ 4 ....................246,000
34 ......... Imperia .......................... Kiaran McLaughlin ........ 4 ....................171,804
35 ......... Cross the Line ............... Jerry Hollendorfer .......... 4 ....................100,000
36 ......... Nasa ............................. John Servis .................... 4 ......................40,000
37 ......... Bluegrass Singer .......... Marcus Vitali .................. 2 ....................118,945
38 ......... Hashtag Bourbon ......... Kellyn Gorder ................ 2 ......................74,117
39 ......... Hollywood Critic ............ Barbara Minshall ........... 2 ......................35,528
40 ......... General Bellamy ........... Bill Mott .......................... 2 ......................25,000
41 ......... Tiznow R J .................... Steve Asmussen ............ 2 ......................24,000
+ ........... Pioneerof the West ........ Mark Casse ................... 2 ......................14,250
42 ......... Private Prospect ........... Michael Campbell ......... 1 ....................138,000
43 ......... Danny Boy .................... Dale Romans ................. 1 ......................59,544
+ ........... Saratoga Heater ........... Al Stall, Jr. ...................... 1 ......................50,000
44 ......... Bench Warrant .............. John Sadler ................... 1 ......................42,000
45 ......... Juan and Bina ............... Gustavo Delgado .......... 1 ......................40,330
46 ......... Tough Customer ........... Wayne Catalano ............ 1 ......................25,000
47 ......... Tencendur ..................... George Weaver ............. 1 ......................24,500
48 ......... Another Lemon Drop .... Phil Bauer ...................... 1 ......................20,000
+ ........... Ackeret ......................... Kiaran McLaughlin ........ 1 ......................13,000
49 ......... Harmonic ...................... Jerry Hollendorfer .......... 1 ......................12,000
50 ......... Hero Ten All .................. Jeff Mullins ..................... 1 ........................9,250
51 ......... Flashaway ..................... John C. Oxley ................ 1 ........................8,999
+ not nominated to the Triple Crown

Rebel Stakes - Daily Racing Form

Transcription

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