Optical Networks - Lyle School of Engineering

2/26/2002
Optical Networks: Technology,
Challenges and Opportunities
EETS 8390/TC-748N
Southern Methodist University
Reddy Urimindi, Ph.D.
Principal Network Consultant
Product Management/Marketing
Celion Networks
[email protected]
(469) 624-4189
1
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Outline
1. Explosive Data Traffic Growth
2. Revenue Distribution among Voice and
Data
3. Price Disruptions
4. Surge in New Services
5. Managing Hybrid Network Elements
6. Need for Faster Service Provisioning
Reddy Urimindi
2
02/28/2002
1
2/26/2002
Total US Internet Traffic
US Internet traffic is growing 3 to 4 times a year for the past two
years and will continue at the same rate for the next few years.
100 Pbps
Limit of Same % GDP as Voice
10 Pbps
1 Pbps
100Tbps
New Measurements
10Tbps
1Tbps
100Gbps
1Gbps
100Mbps
10Mbps
1Mbps
Projected at
4/Year
Voice Crossover:
August 2000
10Gbps
ARPA & NSF Data
to 96
100Kbps
4/Year
2.8/Year
10Kbps
1Kbps
100 bps
10 bps
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Lawrence G. Roberts et al, 2001
3
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Long Haul Traffic Distribution
IP traffic is dominating the backbone networks
Total CAGR over the next five years= 60%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Individual CAGR
9%
30%
40%
110%
LD Voice
SW non-IP
PVT Line
IP
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., September 2000
Reddy Urimindi
4
02/28/2002
2
2/26/2002
Long Haul Revenue Distribution
Revenue from IP services is growing rapidly and will substitute for legacy
Voice services in the backbone
90
80
$ Billions
70
60
LD Voice
PVT Line
SW non-IP
50
40
Internet
30
20
10
0
1999
2000
2001 2002
2003
2004
Source: J.P. Morgan Securities Inc, September 2000
02/28/2002
5
Reddy Urimindi
Supply and Demand Forecasts for US Fiber Backbone Capacity
Terabits per second
Source: Adventis
Transmission
Capacity
100
80
Peak Demand
60
40
20
0
1999
Reddy Urimindi
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
6
02/28/2002
3
2/26/2002
Performance per Dollar Spent
Optical Network Performance
Optical Fiber
(bits per second)
SOURCE: Vinod Khosla , Kleiner, Caufield and Perkins
Doubling Time
(months)
9 12
Data Storage
(bits per square inch)
18
Silicon Computer
Chips
(# of transistors)
1
2
3
Number of Years
5
4
7
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Analogy between Optical Network and The Road
Transportation
Optical Networks
Fiber
Data (ATM, IP, TDM)
SONET ADM
OADM
DWDM (Multiple s)
Dispersion
Attenuation
Non Linearities
Amplifier
Corrupt Packet
Reddy Urimindi
Road Transport
Road
People, Packages, etc.
Signal Light
Flyover
Various Lanes
Change in Driver Speeds
Bad Road
No shoulder
Gasoline
Drunk Driver
8
02/28/2002
4
2/26/2002
Optical Networks: Attributes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Capacity: Highest capacity possible
Distance: Longer Reach
Density: Equipment should be densely configured to minimize floorspace consumption.
Scalability: Should be able to scale to high capacities and more λs
Flexibility: Should be able to configure in Ring, Mesh, Linear
System
Performance: Good BER, SNR performance.
Modularity: Modular architectures are best because they allow
carriers to minimize their investment and grow their network on an
as-needed basis.
Management: Easier Installation, Provisioning and Trouble
Management
Cost: Lower capital and operating cost
Availability: Need it now!
9
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Demand for new services
• Optical networking is a
key enabler for these new
Services
• Bundled services is a key
driver
Reddy Urimindi
10
02/28/2002
5
2/26/2002
Price Disruptions
$/Mb
IP data will dominate networks and slowly the revenue mix will
shift from legacy voice to IP data. IP substitution for legacy
services will drive down the cost.
0.1
6
0.1
4
0.1
2
0.1
0
Voice
Non-IP Data
0.0
8
0.0
6
0.0
4
Private Line
Source: McKinsey and JPMS
IP Data
1999
2000
2001
2002E
2003E
2004E
11
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Evolution of Transmission Systems
50 km
3R
TX/RX
3R
3R
3R
SONET
TDM
EDFA
WDM
I
TX/RX
80 km
TX/RX
EDFA
3R
80 km
2000 km
DWDM
RAMAN
TX/RX
EDFA
3R
EDFA
III
Raman TX/RX
NO RAMAN
TX/RX
II
TX/RX
DWDM
IV
TX/RX
3000-6000 km
Reddy Urimindi
12
02/28/2002
6
2/26/2002
Worldwide Market for DWDM
$B
DWDM systems have increased the capacity and reach of the network and been
widely adopted by carriers around the world
Source: KMI, 2001
• Advances in optical
component technology
• Need for high capacity
to meet the growing
data traffic
• Need for cost
reduction by
eliminating OEO
conversions
13
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Growth of DWDM
Dramatic improvements in the channel count and the per channel data
rate have contributed to the explosive growth of DWDM
45
40
120
35
100
30
80
25
60
20
15
40
TDM (Per Channel Data
Rate)
DWDM (Channel Count)
140
10
20
5
0
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Reddy Urimindi
14
02/28/2002
7
2/26/2002
The Problem
Cost (log)
The economics of modern networks are deteriorating
Re
ve
Ca nue
/b
pe
x/b it
it
§ Revenue per bit declining
20%-30% annually
§ Capex per bit declining
20%-30% annually
§ Opex per bit only declining
slowly
Opex/bit
Time
Even if systems become free, service providers
won’t make money !
02/28/2002
15
Reddy Urimindi
Today’s Longhaul Challenge
Much of the expense of running today’s networks comes from the
O-E-O Conversions and OAM&P
Total Network Costs
Capital Network Costs
Other
Other
~10%
~20%
Fiber
O-E-O
Conversions
~10%
~70%
~30%
~60%
OAM&P
O-E-O
Conversions
•
Ultra-longhaul systems are attacking
high O-E-O costs
•
Today’s systems have ignored
operating complexities and costs
•
First generation solutions have not
proven economical
•
Service providers are spending
millions in unnecessary operating
expenses
Reddy Urimindi
16
02/28/2002
8
2/26/2002
Service Provider’s Challenge
60% of the total network cost is operational
Total Network Costs
Today’s Service Provider Needs:
§ Low capital cost
Other
Capex
§ Faster time to revenues
§ Easier, less expensive network to
operate
O-E-O
Conversions
Operating Costs
(OAM&P)
17
Reddy Urimindi
02/28/2002
Optical Add/Drop Multiplexar
OADM provides traffic flexibility, service transparency, faster service
activation and reduced costs without compromising the performance
of the network.
Terminal
OADM
Terminal
OADM
OADM
OADM
Terminal
Terminal
Reddy Urimindi
• No OEO conversion
of express traffic
• Interface flexibility
• Add/drop any
channel
• Faster service
provisioning
OADM
18
02/28/2002
9
2/26/2002
End-to-End Wavelength Provisioning
Explosive demand for bandwidth has pushed the limits of
existing provisioning methods
Today’s provisioning systems are based upon:
§ Multi-Vendor
§ Multi Technology
Enterprise
Metro Access
§ Multi Tier
§ Proprietary Software
Metro Core
Long haul
International
λ1
λ2
λ1
Reddy Urimindi
19
02/28/2002
λ2
Service Provisioning
Service providers are investing heavily to improve the infrastructure to
support flow-through provisioning.
Source: RHK, 2001
Reddy Urimindi
• Carriers want to cut
operational costs and
improve network
utilizations
• Manual processes are
expensive and prone to
errors
• Flow-through
provisioning is gaining
momentum
20
02/28/2002
10
2/26/2002
Speaker Biography
•
•
Reddy Urimindi is a Principal Network Consultant in the Product Management/Marketing
organization at Celion Networks. He is responsible for the Engin eering and Technical
Marketing aspects of the product. Reddy has over thirteen yearsof professional experience in
the areas of Telecommunication Research, Network Design, Technology Planning, Network
Deployment, Sales and Marketing. Prior to joining Celion, Reddy was the Vice President of
Technical Marketing for IP Communications, the largest independent broadband service
provider in the South West and is based in Dallas. Dr. Urimindi was the founding employee of
IP communications with key responsibilities in the areas of Network Architecture and
Technical Marketing.
Prior to IP Communications Reddy held various senior level technical and management
positions at Lucent Technologies and Worldcom (formerly of MCI).While at Lucent, he
designed several carrier networks in the Central Region working with the data network sales
team. Dr. Urimindi was the key designer of Worldcom’s core optical network from the concept
to deployment. Dr. Urimindi currently holds three United States patents in the area of optical
network architecture and restoration. He is a frequent writer in the industry magazines and a
speaker at the major industry conferences. Dr. Urimindi obtained his BS, MS and Ph.D in
Electrical Engineering and MBA in Corporate Finance.
Reddy Urimindi
21
02/28/2002
11