JRA 3 – Developing Rapid Shake-map and Loss Estimation Capacity

Insurance Practitioners Association (STD)
1st International İstanbul Insurance Conference
Modeling of Earthquake Risk
M.Erdik
Boğaziçi University, İstanbul
Earthquake Risk
 Assets may be people,
property, profits, or other
things of value.
 Loss is the reduction in
value of an asset due to
damage. Loss is measured
in many ways, such as the
ratio of of fatalities to total
population, repair cost ratio,
etc.
 Risk is the uncertainty of
loss.
 Risk or Loss estimation is
the quantification of the
earthquake loss, and is a
basic first step in managing
earthquake risk.
Earthquake Effects –
faulting, shaking
intensity, liquefaction,
tsunami…
Built Environment –
buildings, industry,
infrastructure…
Human Environment –
People, organizations,
institutions, cultural
heritage, finances…
Loss – human injury,
cost or repairs,
business
interruption, social
disruption…
Agents of Damage
tsunami
landslide
shaking
liquefaction
faulting
fire
faulting
Seismic Vulnerability
Two approaches:
Detailed engineering model
F = [K] X

Sa
% damage
Statistical approach
MMI
PAST
EARTHQUAKES
FUTURE
EARTHQUAKES ?
Waiting Time=50 years
Waiting Time=5 years
RENEWAL (Time Dependent) MODEL
HOW WILL THE
FAULT RUPTURE ?
İSTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
Boğaziçi Üniversitesi (BU-ARC, 2002) ve Oyo International (JICA – IMM,
2003) tarafından yapılmış genel kapsamlı çalışmalar İstanbul’daki deprem
riski hakkında bilgi sağlamış ve “İstanbul Deprem Masterplanı”nın
hazırlamasına önayak olmuştur. Risk Belirlemeleri AB 6.ÇP LessLoss,
NERIES, SAFER ve TRANSFER Projeleri ve DPT/TÜBİTAK/İBB HazTürk
Projesi kapsamında geliştirilmiştir.
İSTANBUL DEPREM KAYIP SENARYOSU GÜNCELLEME ÇALIŞMALARI (İBB)
TSUNAMİ TEHLİKESİ
İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi adına Oyo International Corp. tarafından yapılan İstanbul tsunami
tehlikesi çalışmaları İstanbul’da1894 ve 1509 depremlerinde dalga yükselmesinin sırasıyla 3-4 ve 6
m’yi bulduğu işaret edilmiştir. Sualtı yerkaymalarından kaynaklanan tsunamiler daha lokalize, fakat
daha yüksek dalgaların meydana gelmesine sebep olabilmektedir.
Probabilistik Tsunami Dalgası
Yüksekliği (10% / 50 Yıl)
TSUNAMİ RİSKİ:
ETKİLENECEK BİNALAR
TOOL OF TRADE: EU NERIES Project: ELER
Istanbul Scenario Shakemap - Sesetyan Intensity (M=7.5)
RISK-UE
Building Typology Matrix
Typology
M1
M1.1
M1.2
M1.3
M2
M3
M3.1
M3.2
M3.3
M3.4
M4
M5
RC1
RC2
RC3
RC3.1
RC3.2
RC4
RC5
RC6
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
W
Description
Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of...
Rubble stone, fieldstone
Simple stone
Massive stone
Adobe
Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with...
Masonry with Wooden slabs
Masonry vaults
Composite steel and masonry slabs
Reinforced concrete slabs
Reinforced or confined masonry walls
Overall strengthened
Concrete Moment Frames
Concrete shear walls
Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill
walls
Regularly infilled walls
Irregularly infilled walls
RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall)
Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls
Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls
Steel Moment Frames
Steel braced Frames
Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls
Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls
Steel and RC composite system
Wood structures
Model Building Types of HAZUS-1999
Vulnerability Index
Min
Mean
Max
0.62
0.46
0.3
0.62
0.873
0.74
0.616
0.84
1.02
1.02
0.86
1.02
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.3
0.14
0.3
-0.02
-0.02
0.74
0.776
0.704
0.616
0.451
0.694
0.442
0.386
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.86
0.7
1.02
1.02
0.86
-0.02
0.06
-0.02
0.14
0.3
-0.02
-0.02
0.14
-0.02
-0.02
0.14
0.402
0.522
0.386
0.384
0.544
0.363
0.287
0.484
0.224
0.402
0.447
0.98
1.02
0.86
0.7
0.86
0.86
0.7
0.86
0.54
1.02
0.86
“Spectral Capacity” Based Analytical Vulnerabilities
EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR ISTANBUL
The "Credible Worst Case" Scenario event: Mw=7.5 (similar to 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake
in magnitude and in total rupture length) on the fault segments 5, 6, 7 and 8.
DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS
DISTRIBUTION OF CASUALITIES
ISTANBUL TESTBED EXERCISE
COMPARISON OF LOSS RESULTS (Strasser, 2008)
Contributors
A damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population
database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation
methodologies: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE and DBELA.
Imperial College
London
Fleur STRASSER
Julian BOMMER
Conrad LINDHOLM
with acknowledgements to:
with acknowledgements to:
Peter Stafford
Sergio Molina-Palacios
Dominik Lang
ROSE School
EUCENTRE
KOERI
Bogazici University
Ihsan Engin BAL
Helen CROWLEY
Mustafa ERDIK
Zehra CAGNAN
Karin SESETYAN
with acknowledgements to:
Rui Pinho
Institut Geologic
de Catalunya
Janira IRIZZARY
Xavier GOULA
with acknowledgements to:
Nuria ROMEU
with acknowledgements to:
Dipartamento di
Protezione Civile
Antonio LUCANTONI
Fabio SABETTA
with acknowledgements to:
Filomena Papa
Rachele Ferlito
Mine Betul Demircioglu
Can Zulfikar
Eser Durukal
Istanbul
Annual Probability of Occurrence of a Mw>7.2
Earthquake about 1.5-2%.
 About 1/8 of Nation’s Total Population
 About 50% of the Nation’s Industrial Potential
 About 800.000 Buildings within the City
 The Penetration of the Compulsory Earthquake
Insurance About 33 % as of 2009.

Building Stock Inventory
Cell based



Type of
structure
Number of
stories
Construction
date
Building Density
Distribution of buildings with complete damage
Expected losses in Istanbul
Probabilistic Building Losses
Scenario Earthquake
72 Yrs Return Prd
100 Yrs Return Prd
224 Yrs Return Prd
475 Yrs Return Prd
2475 Yrs Return Prd
SD-1
0,16
0,15
0,17
0,23
0,27
0,38
Median Loss
0,28
0,25
0,30
0,37
0,43
0,57
SD+1
0,38
0,35
0,40
0,49
0,55
0,68
Building Losses
EMME: Earthquake Model for the Middle East, JTI Supported
SHARE: Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe, EU FP7
GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL PROJECT