No. 13 - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali
Transcription
No. 13 - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali
DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO FCEA ISSN 1909-4469 / ISSNe 2422-4642 Año 2015 No. 13 Departamento de Gestión de Organizaciones Logistics and transport in Colombia: factors affecting the export performance Diana Marcela Escandón Barbosa Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, FCEA 1 DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO FCEA ISSN 1909-4469 / ISSNe 2422-4642 Año 2015 No. 13 Documento de Trabajo FCEA ISSN 1909-4469 / ISSNe 2422-4642 Año 2015 No. 13 Logistics and transport in Colombia: factors affecting he export performance Autor: Diana Marcela Escandón Barbosa. [email protected] Departamento de Gestión de Organizaciones WEBSITE: wp_fcea.javerianacali.edu.co Comité editorial Alina Gómez Mejía Julián Piñeres Luis Fernando Aguado Pedro Pablo Sanabria Pulido Correspondencia, suscripciones y solicitudes Calle 18 No. 118-250 Vía Pance Santiago de Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas Teléfonos: (57+2) 3218200 Ext.: 8694 Correo electrónico: [email protected] Sello Editorial Javeriano - 2015 Coordinador: Iris Cabra [email protected] Concepto Gráfico: William Fernando Yela Melo Formato 28 x 21 cms. ©Derechos Reservados ©Sello Editorial Javeriano Junio de 2015 La serie de Documentos de Trabajo FCEA pone a disposición para el análisis, discusión y retroalimentación de la comunidad académica los avances y resultados preliminares del trabajo académico de los profesores de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas. Estos documentos no han sido sometidos a procesos de evaluación formal por pares internos ni externos a la Facultad. Se espera que muchos de estos documentos posteriormente sean sometidos a evaluación en publicaciones especializadas. Las opiniones expresadas en este documento son de exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores y no comprometen institucionalmente a la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, ni a la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali. 2 Content 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2. 2.1 3. 4. 5. 6. Theoretical framework Transaction costs theory Transaction costs theory as an international approach International logistics Exports, costs of transport and infraestructure Analysis of the Colombian context The impact of imports and exports in the Colombian economy Methodology Results Conclusions References 5 5 7 9 13 14 14 17 20 26 27 3 Logistics and transport in Colombia: factors affecting the export performance Diana Marcela Escandón Barbosa [email protected] Departamento de Gestión de Organizaciones Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali ABSTRACT The election of a country destination to export is one of the problems with greater interest within the field of internationalization of companies. Companies seek to minimize labor costs, transport, tariff and other issues affecting their choice. However, transportation costs and logistics becomes in a key aspect in the enterprise competitiveness for access to international markets. Therefore, from the application of a survey of 319 exporting companies in Colombia a model of neural networks is performed to measure as factors affecting export performance variables such as efficiency in the process of customs clearance and other border agencies, ease and affordability of international shipping, transport infrastructure and technologies adequate, level of competence of the local logistics industry, ability to track and trace consignments and timely deliveries destination. Among the main findings is that the level of competence of the local logistics industry manages to be the most important variable for export performance in Colombian companies because they can improve pricing systems and the existence of lower export costs. Key words: International transport, Export Performance, Logistics JEL Classification: F14; M16 4 INTRODUCTION In recent years there has been interest in analyzing the significance of transport costs for the structure of trade and production due to the growing trend towards globalization of markets and the need to compete in this new scenario. For industry, logistics and transport it helps optimize production and distribution processes based resource management to promote efficiency and competitiveness. Transportation occupies one third of logistics costs and affects performance in international markets. Therefore, the role of transport manages to be dominant because their participation starts from the production process to distribution to the consumer becoming a cornerstone for achieving high performance and can make the difference between staying or leaving international markets. The purpose of this article is to identify the logistics and transportation factors affecting export performance of Colombian companies from the theory of transaction costs, which helps with understanding the optimal choice of costs for the start of the internationalization process. To serve this purpose, the development of this article is performed as follows: a first section where a brief literature review based on the theory of transaction costs ago. The second section presents the analysis of logistics and transportation in Colombia as a broad context for the article. Subsequently, it develops methodology performed. The paper concludes with the presentation of the main findings and conclusions. 1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 1.1. TRANSACTION COSTS THEORY The Transaction Cost Theory (TCT) is part of the New Institutional Economics, and its main focus is the definition of the determinants of coordinating transactions through markets or hierarchies (Joskow, 1988). In this sense, the boundaries of the company must be a function of the governance structure (Williamson, 2002, 2005), especially if 5 one considers that this governance structure ensures optimum adaptability of the company to changes under the conditions of supply and demand. An important aspect of the Theory of Transaction Costs is that not only focuses on the two ends of the governance of transactions (ie, market vs. hierarchy) but also in other hybrid and forms long-term contracts. Williamson (1985) refers to these three generic forms of government: market, hierarchy and a hybrid of both. The hierarchy is characterized by cooperation, by administrative controls and the absence of a contractual law. On the other hand, market parties are autonomous and have the strong incentive that stems the flow of net income accumulated as a result of cost reduction and efficient adaptation. Here the contract law is supposed. The hybrid form is a combination between the market and hierarchy, where incentives are sacrificed in favor of more coordination, compared with the market, or where more cooperation risks for greater intensity of incentives, compared with the hierarchical form. Theory of Transaction Costs (TCT) seeks to explain the reason that economic transactions are organized in the way they are developed in modern society (Williamson, 1994). Specifically, why are some economic transactions internalized within the limits of the companies while others are acquired through third parties? The answer to this question is that the activities are internalized within the company when there is some kind of market failure. The Transaction Costs Theory argues that the costs of conducting transactions through the market can be reduced through mechanisms that are not markets (Coase, 1937; Williamson, 1975). The TCT notes that these transaction costs that drive economic organization are as important as the even more significant costs of production, or perhaps, as in production, costs are easier to assess with respect to transaction costs therefore, transaction costs are an important part of the total costs of a company. Transaction costs include ex-ante cost of search and information costs make agreements and 6 negotiations and safeguard the costs of the agreement. The ex-post costs involve: the costs of the assessment of entry, production measurement and monitoring and (Williamson, 1985) application. The TCT emerges from the relative failure of neoclassical economic theory to adequately address and explain economic phenomena. It focused on the paradigm of perfect competition, the neoclassical view of the firm as a production function is often criticized for being reductionist, simplistic and unrealistic. In this vision, the company is considered a black box comprised of labor and capital inputs and the output are the products (Alchian and Woodward, 1988). TCT researchers refer to the company as open to consider further how it works in reality black box. In contrast to the neoclassical view, the TCT considers the company as a hierarchy that adds value to economize transaction costs. The TCT says the company, in many cases, provides a relatively efficient method of organizing in relation to the market, due to the optimization of transaction costs. 1.2. TRANSACTION COSTS THEORY AS INTERNATIONAL APPROACH The economic approach to internationalization focuses on the company and its environment (Andersson, 2000) and its fundamental assumption is that companies are rational in their choice of investments, because the decision maker has access to perfect information and therefore, choose the optimal solution. This approach focuses on two aspects of international production: the ownership of assets employed in productive activities in different countries and the localization pattern of this type of activity (Benito and Gripsrud, 1992). According to this approach, the choice of where to invest abroad is a deliberate decision made in order to obtain profitability (Buckley et al., 2007). Economic theories predict that a company will choose the place of your investment that minimizes the total cost. The differences in labor costs, transportation costs, existence 7 of tariffs and trade barriers and government policy are crucial to the choice of location (Benito and Gripsrud, 1992). Lack of experience is another factor considered in determining the location decision because it generates certain costs. However, when the company goes international it identifies your competitive advantage and seeking these advantages in a market to provide the best conditions for the production and / or sales. (Glucker, 2006). Are part of this economic approach, Dunning's eclectic theory, the theory of product life cycle and the Theory of transaction costs, which have sought to promote low-cost internationalization, through low-risk strategies such as exporting. With Transaction Costs theory it is assumed that the company is internationalized when the cost of domestic transaction balances the cost of the same transaction that is based on the market (Hermannsdottir, 2008). Coase (1937) points out that there are conditions under which it is more efficient for a company to create an internal market instead of entering a foreign market. These are the transaction costs of activities in the foreign market. In a perfectly competitive market, transactions are conducted under free transaction costs, this is because the information is freely available, the decision is rational, there are always alternative suppliers and buyers and have no specific transactions spillovers from one period to another. However, these conditions rarely occur, incurred transaction costs because there is a need for efforts to reorganization, implementation and monitoring of transactions between interdependent firms (Hermannsdottir, 2008). The Transaction Costs Theory assumes that a multinational company has developed a specific advantage in their home market. This advantage can be developed intangible assets that give the company greater productivity. The market for this type of intangible assets or know-how is characterized by imperfections that can be created as a result of differences in price and transfer, leading to higher costs associated with the transaction with another company. Therefore, a high level of transaction costs resulting in a preference for the internalization of the transaction. For this reason, 8 companies decide to produce abroad if they perceive that reducing transaction costs resulting from the replacement of external imperfect markets will outweigh the costs of such activities internally (Johanson and Mattson, 1987). Otherwise, sales license or some other form of different international export activity will satisfy foreign markets. In short, for the company TCT choose the location and form of organization where transaction costs are minimized (Coviello and Martin, 1999). 1.3. INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS Two of the main engines of globalization in recent years have been: a) the reduction of trade tariffs in commerce and, b) the sharp drop in the costs of communication and transportation. The regime of "free trade" encouraged by the United States in the post-war as represented by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) has greatly reduced different types of trade barriers between countries, thereby encouraging the rapid growth of cross-border movement of goods largely in North America, Europe, East Asia. At the same time, technological change in the transport and information technology have ushered in a period of transportation of high value at low cost. In fact, the combined effects of changes in transport and information technologies are not only visible in the supply of traditional transport services with more speed, reliability and cost reduction, but also in introducing new types of transport (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). The costs of land and sea transport have declined steadily after the postwar years (Frankel, 1997). The air cargo rates have not only fallen in recent years, air travel with jet engine and cooling have made the trade in perishable goods such as cut flowers and live lobsters. Air transport routinely carries large volumes of goods with high added value and mail packages through the continents. 9 There is controversy regarding the role of technology in explaining these decreasing costs. Contrary to Krugman (1995), Board et al. (1999) say that technological progress has been very influential in explaining the decline in transportation costs. Much of this technical improvement is derived from information technologies, which not only increase the capacity and functionality of cars, trains, ships and planes, as well as the road and the system of air traffic control, but also, it makes possible the functions of organization and coordination that include transportation logistics and supply chain management (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). These technologies enable the management and coordination of various economic activities worldwide. They allow the increase of the division of labor in production processes and components divided geographically. In this context, cost reduction has encouraged global sourcing as manufacturers and wholesalers to supply intermediate and final goods to the global market. While sea freight and other transport costs have been declining steadily over time which increases the flow of goods between countries, the current form of globalization with horizontal integration and chains of interdependent production has greatly facilitated logistical support, which has enabled countries to fully capture the benefits of transport improvements. In turn, the global production chains promote the development and improvement of new logistic innovations (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). In general, logistics, defined as the integrated analysis and active management of the global supply chain of a company, from the sources of inputs to delivery of finished products, has had a huge impact on services freight (Willoughby, 2000). Managers freight market should compete in transportation costs and service quality, and this has put downward pressure on total logistics costs (including storage and transport) by approximately 40% on average. Such cost reductions will vary depending on the type of industry and trading partners (Schneider, 1998). 10 Logistics is increasing in importance in the process of globalization, raising modernization of economies, accompanied by the continuous lowering of tariffs and the opening of closed economies, it is encouraging transnational corporations to streamline production systems worldwide. These trends in recent years have increased trade to be doubled, while global production has grown only 50%. This growing share of trade over production puts pressure on distribution systems where cost minimization; profit maximization and strengthening market presence are all sought (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). The aim of transport logistics is then to, compress time along the entire supply chain. This involves not only reducing time delivery of shipments from suppliers of raw materials, intermediate goods and components to factories, but also the distribution of the end of the factories products to wholesalers, retailers end users. Companies get value from reduced stock-keeping units and being able to respond quickly to market conditions (Caldwell, 1998). Another improvement of the service offered by providers of transport logistics, namely reducing order cycle times, productivity gains confers on producers and industrial carriers. In transportation, logistics information replaces inventory. Logistics can reduce the accumulation of stock, eliminating costly bottlenecks and delays in the delivery, and the time of supply and cost savings to participants of the supply chain. While transportation is only one component of integrated logistics management, the current trend is towards increasing the contribution of information technology, and therefore, is crucial (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). Transportation is not limited only to the movement of goods through space. And not only it performed a liaison function between mere preproduction (moving inputs) and post (delivery of outputs). Now, there is a component of value added which is incorporated in the strategic management and operational business decisions through transport logistics (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). 11 Currently, the field of transport logistics has grown in a way that is influencing what to produce, where to produce and in what quantities. Thus, the transport function is undergoing a structural change, which is reflected in the evolution of transport logistics. Logistics adds value in both phases of pre-production and post-production logistics referred to as input and output (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). Porter (1990) in the discussion of the competitive advantage of companies draws attention to the important role of logistics in the value chain. The goal of inbound logistics is to harmonize supply chains with production needs so that minimizing costs in purchasing management and inventory can be achieved. Inbound logistics also involves the choice of the optimal mode and intermodal coordination. Decisions will also need to take with regard to the distribution network: deliveries must be made directly to the factory or entries stored in the central or regional warehouses. Outbound logistics has three elements, namely, whether the shipment of factories must be stored in warehouses, stored in trucks or sent to customers directly. If they are stored in warehouses, decisions must be made regarding the logistics provider. The store features, location, transport routes, the efficiency of loading, unloading and storage. All these variables are part of strategic decisions. In the early stages of transport and distribution logistics, the focus was on optimizing inbound logistics and outbound logistics for individual shipments. The current trend is towards global optimization, that is, throughout the value chain. The objective is to synergize integrated logistics delivery and reduce shipping costs and cycle time. Adding flexibility and accuracy of shipments is included. For purposes of this study, analysis of international logistics focuses on freight transport, with particular emphasis on transportation costs (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). 12 1.4. EXPORTS, COSTS OF TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE Based on Melitz (2003), Bernard et al. (2006) show in a theoretical model of international trade as a fall in trade costs increases costs of non-exporting firms, which find more likely to start exporting and for existing exporters, it would be an opportunity to increase their exports. An important part of business costs are transportation costs. Trade volumes between countries decrease rapidly with distance, and more specifically because of transportation costs associated with it (Disdier and Head, 2008). Limao and Venables (2001) estimate that a 10% increase in transport costs, trade volumes is reduced by approximately 20%. Anderson and Van Wincoop (2004) argue that trade costs remain high even among highly integrated economies and in the absence of informal trade barriers. The transit time is increasingly important for competitive strategies, specifically the production and delivery time. Hummels (2001) found that increased transit time between two countries reduces the probability of exporting 1 to 1.5%. Transport costs are determined not only by distance but by the quality of the infrastructure. Bougheas et al. (1999) develop a model of bilateral trade with transport costs depending on the level of infrastructure. Limao and Venables (2001) find that a deteriorating infrastructure raises transportation costs and reduced trading volumes. Francois and Manchin (2007) show that the infrastructure and institutional quality are important determinants not only export levels, but also the likelihood that exports are carried out, even more important than changes in tariffs. Limao and Venables (2001) argue that the poor national transport infrastructure can prevent a country participating in global production networks. Moreover, some places are better locations for exporters due to better access to international markets (Hummels, 2001). 13 The various studies that have examined the impact of infrastructure in trade costs have reached the conclusion that the level / state of infrastructure is one of the main determinants of international trade (Limao and Venables, 2001; Francois and Manchin; 2006). While many developing countries have not been able to take advantage of globalization to increase trade, others have traded little or nothing with the rest of the world, mainly due to lack of infrastructure to produce and compete effectively in exporting markets. Bougheas et al (1999) the first to introduce variables argued that differences in the quality and quantity of infrastructure across countries could be responsible for differences in their trade competitiveness infrastructure. These authors showed that an improvement in infrastructure through its impact on transport costs has a positive influence on international trade. Similarly, Clark et al. (2004) found that the infrastructure and port facilities contribute to ocean freight as a significant determinant of bilateral trade. 2. ANALYSIS OF COLOMBIAN CONTEXT 2.1. THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IN THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY Exports of goods and services in Colombia play an important role given that the participation of the same was 17% as a percentage of GDP (for the periods between 2009 and 2013). However, when this indicator is compared with its main Latin American neighbors (Table 1), Colombia lags ranking in ninth place (of the eleven countries compared), mainly due to the lack of competitiveness in the country as confirmed by the Global Indicator competitiveness 2013-2014 of the World Economic Forum (WEF, for its acronym in English), which shows that in 2009 the country stood at 69th place among 133 countries and four years later is in the same position among 148 countries. 14 Table 1 Exports as %GDP in some Latin American countries Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Argentina 21,5 20,9 20,43 19,84 19,91 17,4 17,5 17,79 15,8 14,27 Bolivia 31,14 35,55 41,77 41,8 44,91 35,72 41,19 44,12 47,25 N.D. Brazil 16,43 15,13 14,37 13,36 13,66 10,98 10,87 11,89 12,59 12,55 Chile 37,86 38,38 42,43 43,83 41,51 37,17 38,06 38,02 34,24 32,56 Colombia 16,77 16,85 17,64 16,54 17,79 16,03 15,94 18,74 18,26 17,75 Costa Rica 46,26 48,5 49,13 48,71 45,44 42,28 38,17 37,18 37,2 35,14 Ecuador 24,55 27,62 30,33 31,93 34,16 25,25 28,74 31,54 30,93 30,53 Mexico 26,23 26,57 27,56 27,74 27,9 27,28 29,87 31,25 32,64 37,75 Panama 67,61 75,49 76,71 76,09 78,75 75,53 70,58 79,29 79,79 71,01 Peru 22,49 26,55 30,22 30,5 28,44 25,19 26,56 29,66 26,6 23,74 Venezuela 36,2 39,66 36,52 31,13 30,82 18,07 28,53 29,94 26,17 N.D. Source: Prepared by the authors with information from the page www.bancomundial.org Within the above figures are included exports of oil and coal quetienen an important role in Colombian exports, ranging between 65% and 67% of total exports between 2011 and 2013. If these exports are excluded earlier figures for not being caused by the traditional industrial base, the share of exports in GDP would increase from 17% to less than 8%, moving further away from its Latin American neighbors (see Figure 1). 15 Figure 1. The 10 most competitive countries in Latin America In 2006 - 2007 In 2013 - 2014 between 122 between 122 Place countries countries 1 Chile (27) Chile (34) 2 Mexico (52) Panama (40) 3 El Salvador (53) Costa Rica (54) 4 Panama (60) Mexico (55) 5 Brazil (56) Colombia (63) 6 Brazil (66) Peru (61) 7 Costa Rica (68) Colombia (69) 8 Argentina (70) Ecuador (71) 9 Peru (78) Uruguay (85) 10 Uruguay (79) Guatemala (86) Source: Private Council of Competitiveness (Report 2013-2014) The competitiveness and productivity policy defined by the National Competitiveness Commission proposes that in 2032, Colombia will be one of the three most competitive countries in Latin America and have a high level of income per person equivalent to a country with medium income through an export economy of goods and services with high added value and innovation with a business environment that encourages local and foreign investment, fosters regional convergence, improve formal employment opportunities, raise the quality of life and reduce poverty levels substantially. In terms of infrastructure and transport logistics, Colombia participates more in the terrestrial environment (see Figure 2) due to its flexibility, as it is a door to door service and there is more supply than demand. Thus, the share of rail transport is deliberately minimized and the river transport has never been developed. Railways currently carry only coal export and pose serious challenges in terms of infrastructure. The truck is definitely the most important mode of transport, it accounts for 81% of the cargo transported measured in tons / km. But the performance of the trucking industry is poor, it is characterized by a high degree of 16 atomization and informality and the average life of equipment is over 20 years. In addition, there are serious limitations in specialized services such as cold chain and a small fleet of container trailers. Millions of USD$ Figure 2 Method of clearance of exports (2013) of the main exporter departments 3.000 2.000 1.000 Antioquia Maritimo Maritime Bogota Valle Aereo Air Bolivar Terrestre Terrestrial Atlantico C/marca Otros Other Source: Prepared by the authors with information from the page www.colombiatrade.com.co For the movement of this type of transport, the country has a road network of 203 392 km, of which 17,037 km (8.3%) are primary roads that are under concession for 30% and 70% respectively by the Institute National Roads (INVIAS). On secondary roads it has 44 399 km (21.9%) by departments and tertiary roads 141 955 km (69.8%) by INVIAS, departments and municipalities. 3. METHODOLOGY To meet the objectives of this study and analyze the influence of logistics and international transport on the export performance of Colombian companies, a database that includes 319 surveys exporters used. This survey was conducted in 2013 to exporters of major cities (Bogota, Medellin, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga and other) starting from a preflight in the directory of exporters Proexport 17 (Colombian entity in charge of the Promotion Tourism, Investment and Export Colombia). To measure aspects of logistics and transport, take the questionnaire the following variables that are dichotomous type, where 1 is yes and 2 is No. • Efficiency in the process of customs clearance and other border agencies • There ease and affordability of international shipments • Transport infrastructure and information technology is adequate • There is competition on the local logistics industry • There are easy to track and trace shipments • Punctuality is presented in deliveries destination These variables are related to the export performance of companies also join measured with dichotomous variable (1 is yes and 2 is not), asking if the company has increased exports in recent years. To establish the influence of the variables logistics and international transport on export performance, a model of neural networks is estimated. The neural network model viewed as a derivation of biological networks (Row and Martinez 1995), refers to a number of networks that are connected in parallel, trying to interact as a nervous system. Through this model can be grouped a number of variables that in the case of economic and administrative field are useful as a methodological tool (Hawley, et al., 1990). The method of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to obtain data on the environment and achieve iteration mathematical algorithms to find a solution according to the object of analysis. This is a computational tool to analyze the required variables and their interaction. 18 Table 1 Definitions of ANN Author Kung (1993) Fausett (1994) Bishop (1996) Chen (1998) Lin (1996) Hassoun (1995) Definition System characterized by an adaptive array combined with parallel processing techniques System where the information is processed with performance characteristics similar to biological neural networks Classical statistical method proposed for pattern recognition Mathematical models that allow a simulation of the brain and how it works Systems that organize information based on principles similar to those that allow the structure of the human brain Computational model consisting of adaptive processing units with high interconnection between them Source: Own elaboration based on Serrano, Soria and Martin (2009) According to Table 1 to the points in Table 1 it can be demonstrated that the majority of authors agree to define the ANN as systems that simulate the functioning and structure of the human brain as a tool for processing and analysis. ANNs are constituted by a series of layers, whose inputs find connected to the output through a single neuron or an assembly thereof, while any networks layers responsible for receiving sensory information also output layers and layers intermediate. The architecture of the ANN is determined as follows: There is an input layer is constituted by three neurons, which are the three independent variables. Each connection between synaptic neurons is associated weight that represents the interaction between each. The equation representing the input layer of the network is as follows: 𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑗 = 𝑤𝑖𝑗 𝑥𝑖 + 𝜃𝑗 𝑖 In which: 𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑗 : The input of a neuron j 𝜃𝑗 : Is the threshold (bias) of the neuron j 19 The hidden layer is estimated to reduce the time used to calculate the result; hidden layers are defined by discretion of the investigator. In this research two hidden layers in order that results are tighter in the output layer is taken into account. The transfer function of the output layer neuron j is represented in the following equation, with sigmoid type: 𝑦𝑗 = 1 1 + 𝑒 −𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑗 Hawley, et al (1990) suggest that the sigmoid function is used in the estimates of the ANN thus allows better approximations of any function with a specific number of discontinuities. 4. RESULTS Figure 3 shows the neural network model used in this study; the architecture is composed of six neurons in the input layer, two neurons in the hidden layer and neuron in the output layer. 20 Figure 3 Neural Network Model Source: Own elaboration –SPSS For those surveyed entrepreneurs, the competence of the logistics industry is one of the main factors affecting the performance of businesses nationwide, followed by process efficiency of customs. As a result, the ease and affordability of international trade is generated, as well as the ease of monitoring and traceability. For entrepreneurs, transport infrastructure and technology, although they are determining factors in its performance are classified lesser order of importance, just as the timeliness of deliveries destination. 21 Table 2 Level of significance of variables Competencia de la logistica local Competition from theindustria current logistics industry Efficiency the process of clearance and Eficiencia delof proceso de despacho de aduanas… other border agencies Ease Facilidad and affordability of international y asequibilidad de los envios… shipments Facility to track and traceyshipments Facilidad para seguir localizar envios Transport infrastructure and information technology Infraestructura de transporte y tecnologías de… Punctuality of deliveries destination Puntualidad de los envios al destino 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% Source: Own elaboration –SPSS • Competition of the local logistics industry (100%): It is the first major factor for employers because the country's development is closely linked to the growth of this sector. For Colombian exporters, having logistical competitors destination that can offer lower prices country, implies the possibility of assuming lower costs in the process, a situation that would improve the level of exports of enterprises. This result is consistent with the statements by Schneider (1998), who notes that the companies responsible for the logistics of transport must compete on cost and quality of service, a situation that has pushed a decrease in total logistics costs New trade agreements require improvements in infrastructure, management of transport companies and operations management. Therefore, a need to streamline processes, make better monitoring and negotiating with shipping lines with the purpose of making more competitive Colombian logistics companies. It notes that logistics cover, other than freight, planning and organization of cargo throughout the value chain as a quality element. 22 Although the country has improved in the time to import and export about their Latin American peers (Export: Colombia 14 days - LATCO - 16.8 days; Import: Colombia 13 days - LATCO: 18.7 days) 1, costs remain high vs. the same pairs (Export: Colombia US2.355 - LATCO - US $ 1,299; Import: Colombia US $ 2,470 - LATCO: US $ 1,691) in January. • Process efficiency of customs clearance and other border agencies (47%): For entrepreneurs, this is the second important factor and its justification is linked to the arguments mentioned above. The efficiency of the clearance process reduces time in the processes along the supply chain (Caldwell, 1998), impacting favorably on export performance. The importance given to Colombian companies this factor can be analyzed to confront the figures of the times and duration customs costs and technical control as well as the time and cost of ports and terminals management regarding Panama Colombia and Mexico (Table 3), who are ranked first and fourth, respectively in cross-border trade in Latin America and Caribbean. It can be concluded that there is a significant gap in the days of export procedures but cost issues, variations can exceed 100% with peers countries analyzed. Opposite situation exists in imports, where the costs of the proceedings in Colombia are less than the peer countries analyzed, reaching 100%. Table 3 Days and costs incurred between Colombia, Panama and Mexico Concept Customs clearance and technical control Ports and terminal handling Place in LATCO (out of 28 countries) EXPORT Colombia Panama Mexico Days US$ Days US$ Days US$ IMPORT Colombia Panama Mexico Days US$ Days US$ Days US$ 2 350 1 50 2 150 2 170 1 225 2 300 3 170 1 65 2 200 2 150 1 265 3 300 21 1 4 21 1 4 23 Source: Prepared by the authors based information from the page of Doing Business 2015 • Ease and affordability of international shipments (38.2%): This variable analyzed is part of the Logistics Performance Index of the World Bank, which carries a report every two years, which reflects perceptions of a country's logistics based on efficiency of the clearance process customs, quality of infrastructure related to trade and transport, ease of agreeing competitively priced shipments, quality of logistics services, ability to track and trace consignments, and frequency with which shipments reach the consignee at the scheduled time. The index ranges from 1 to 5, where the highest score representing better performance. • Ability to track and trace shipments (23.9%): This factor is fourth in importance for Colombian entrepreneurs. While it is very important for most companies in the world know where your shipments and whether there is compliance with the connections and the time scheduled traffic, these responsibilities in the management of information are transferred to the transport companies or logistics operators who are obligated to provide location information of shipments to companies (Chatterjee and Tsai, 2002). Today, entrepreneurs are more demanding and impatient and choosing who carry their load, take into account whether the company has an efficient information management either by a department or personalized customer service through technology platforms that provide all the information in real time through a web page. Being blind regarding the information and shipping status, it can give rise to a claim and can also generate a fail in the delivery. 24 • Transport infrastructure and information technology (17.6%): This factor according to the results obtained by the model, was located on the fifth place with 17.6% of importance for Colombian entrepreneurs. While it is true that the international trend is towards a globalized world and accelerated trade liberalization of the country, following the signing of the various trade agreements, make transport infrastructure and information technology fundamental to compete in the market, entrepreneurs prefer to be focused on making more competitive products with higher added value, provide better service and a differentiation that makes distinguish compared to competitive products. The importance of transport infrastructure and information technology coincides with the statement made by Chatterjee and Tsai (2002), about the combined effects of changes in transport and information technology in the provision of transport services with higher efficiency conditions. • Timeliness of deliveries destination (4.9%): For entrepreneurs the timeliness of shipments to the destination factor is less weight in the variables that influence the performance of exports. This shows that the importance in delivering their shipments, even if they do not arrive on time, it is more important. Also, they know that concepts such as product quality, customer service, competitive pricing, differentiation, after-sales service and value added, among others, narrow trade relations with their end customers. The aim of transport logistics is then compress time along the entire supply chain (Willoughby, 2000). This involves not only reducing time delivery of shipments from suppliers of raw materials, intermediate goods and components to factories, but also the distribution of the final products from factories to wholesalers, retailers, and final users. Companies gain value by reducing stock-keeping units and being able to respond quickly to market conditions (Caldwell, 1998). 25 5. CONCLUSIONS The competitiveness of a country is defined by the dynamics of trade, not only seen as the flow of people, information and goods, but for the integrity and generation of added value. Thus, infrastructure, transport and logistics, are crucial to the country's development factors. In Colombia, the lack of a multimodal transport policy and development of the different modes, has led to more than 80% of the load is carried by road, followed by the railway with a share around 24% (the which 99% is coal transportation). The delay in the implementation of infrastructure projects has led to the country to lose competitiveness against its Latin American peers. The various studies that have examined the impact of infrastructure in trade costs have reached the conclusion that the level / state of infrastructure is one of the main determinants of international trade (Bougheas et al, 1999; Limao and Venables, 2001; Francois and Manchin, 2006). Regarding the influence of logistical factors in the export performance of Colombian companies, it is concluded that the level of exports of these companies is strongly influenced by logistics, whose importance has increased in the process of globalization; encouraging companies to reduce costs in production systems. Since the purpose of the transport logistics to reduce the time throughout the supply chain, companies need to cut costs in shipping, at the time of delivery, in the distribution of final products. However, for Colombian companies, concern about the impact of logistics on performance, competition comes primarily from the national logistics system faced to enter other markets, and having to compete on cost with local logistics companies, own competitive advantages of belonging to these markets. Additionally, Colombian companies believe that efficiency in the process of customs clearance, is also central to the export activity of companies, because it enables help reduce operating costs. Although shipping issues are important to these companies, the answers of respondents placed these variables in lower levels of importance, and 26 although facing any problem in sending directly impacts customer for Colombian companies the cost issue is prefixed compared to level of service. 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