Integration of energy statistics in national policies

Integration of energy statistics
in national policies
Senior advisor
Jesper Lorentzen
Danish Ministry of Energy, Climate & Building
Background for policies
• November 2011 –
”Our Future Energy”
Energy Agreement, March 2012
Energy Agreement, March 2012
•
Broad political commitment to an ambitious green transition for Denmark
that focuses on energy savings throughout society and promotes renewable
energy in all sectors.
•
12% reduction of gross energy consumption in 2020 in comparison to 2006;
•
35% renewable energy in 2020;
•
Almost 50% wind energy in Danish electricity consumption in 2020.
•
The agreement includes a series of energy policy initiatives for 2012-2020,
and the parties involved will take stock of the developments regularly.
•
Before the end of 2018, further initiatives reaching beyond 2020 will be
discussed.
Background for policies
• Annual follow-up based on energy statistics.
– Energy consumption and GDP
– Development in renewable energy
• Danish Energy Outlook
• Modelling
Observed energy consumption and
adjusted gross energy consumption
PJ
1000
900
800
700
600
1990
'95
Observed consumption
6
'00
'05
Adjusted consumption
'11
Gross energy consumption and final energy
consumption per DKK million GDP
TJ per DKK million GDP (2005 prices)
1,2
Adjusted
0,8
0,4
0,0
1990
'95
Gross energy consumption
7
'00
'05
Final energy consumption
'11
Production of renewable energy by energy product
PJ
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
'95
Wind
8
Straw
'00
Wood
Biogas
'05
Waste
'11
Heat pumps
Consumption of renewable energy
PJ
200
150
100
50
0
1990
'95
'00
Share covered by indigenous production
9
'05
Share covered by net imports
'11
Share of renewable energy according to the
EU method of calculation
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
'95
'00
'05
Share of renewable energy according to the EU method of calculation
10
'11
Wind power capacity and wind power’s
share of domestic electricity supply
MW
30%
4500
4000
25%
3500
3000
20%
2500
15%
2000
10%
1500
1000
5%
500
0%
0
1990
'95
'00
'05
Wind power of f shore capacit y, M W
Wind power onshore capacit y, M W
Wind power's share of domest ic elect ricit y supply, %
'11
Wind power capacity by turbine size
MW
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990
- 499 kW
12
2000
500 - 999 kW
1000 - 1999 kW
2011
2000 - kW
Scenarios
•
•
The purpose of the baseline scenario is to get an assessment of
how energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases will
evolve in the future if no new policies are introduced, often referred
to as a "frozen policy"-scenario.
The actual development will be continuously influenced by new
political initiatives, and the scenario is not considered as a long-term
forecast, but rather as a calculation that from some given
assumptions define the challenges which future energy policy must
address.
•
The baseline scenario is based on a number of assumptions:
– general economic (the output of industries,private consumption, fuel
prices etc.),
– a number of specific assumptions on technology (what are the costs of
different types of plants, what is the efficiency etc.)
– and assumptions on how the energy market players will act with pure
market conditions.
Baseline scenario –
Renewables in Gross Energy Consumption
Misc.
Wind
Biogas
Biofuels
Solid
biomass
Waste
Electricity production (TWh)
Thermal
Thermal –
CHP
Solar (PV)
Wind
Fuel for production of electricity and district heating
(Thermal)(PJ)
Biomass
Waste
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Renewable energy in final consumption (EU)
Conclusion
Necessary basis for decisions
• Reliable statistics
• Recognised model and assumptions
• Scenario building