New York City

Wachstum für alle?
Demographischer Wandel in Brooklyn
Growth for Everyone? Demographic Change in
Brooklyn, New York
Ralph Blessing, Ph.D.
Presentation at PT Tagung 2013 “Gentrification? Urban
Transformation and Social Consequences”, Aachen, June 20, 2013
New York City – Verwaltungsgliederung und Einwohner
New York City – Administration and Population
1.4 million
Long Island Sound
1 City
5 Boroughs
59 Community Districts
Nassau
County
1.6 million
New Jersey
2.2 million
2.5 million
0.5 million
Atlantic Ocean
Source:
Map:
New York City Department of City Planning, Total Population New York City and Boroughs, 2000 and 2010,accessed July 9, 2013.
New York City Department of City Planning, ZoLa
“Brooklyn, Queens Spurt – Buyers Are
Eager to Close Deals Before Rates Rise”
(The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2013)
“Recording Williamsburg’s Latest
Transformation, and Raging Against It”
“City Renters Rocked as Avg.
Hits $3,000”
(The New York Times, March 11, 2013)
(The New York Post, July 11, 2013)
“In Bloomberg's New York, The Poor Move
Further Out, Lengthening Commutes”
(WNYC, Transportation Nation Blog, July 10, 2013)
“Deals Go Buy-Buy – Prices
Soar in B’klyn and Queens”
(Daily News, July 11, 2013)
“Office market shows surprising
signs of life”
(Crain’s New York Business, July 10, 2013)
Wohnungstypologie nach Eigentums- / Mietart
Housing Typology by Ownership and Rental Type
Wohnraum
Housing Units
3,370,647 Einheiten/Units (2010)
Wohneigentum
Homeownership
Mietwohnungen
Rentals
Ein- und Mehrfamilienhäuser
Private homes
Städtische/staatliche Wohnungen
City/ gvt. owned
Eigentumswohnungen
Condos
Subventionierter Wohnraum
Subsidized rents (e.g. Section 8)
Eigentumswohnungen
Co-ops
Mietregulierte Wohnungen
Rent-regulated
Nicht-regulierte Mietwohnungen
Unregulated rentals
Anteil der Wohnungstypologien am Wohnraumbestand
Shares of Housing Typology
24%
32%
Homeownership
Rent-Regulated
Public and Subsidized
Housing
Unregulated Rental
12%
32%
Source: The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY 2011.
Bevölkerungsentwicklung in ausgewählten U.S. Städten, 1950-2010 (1950=100)
Population in Selected U.S. Cities, 1950-2010 (1950=100)
2010
population
Sources:
Wikipedia contributors, "Demographics of New York City," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia (accessed June 9, 2013).
Wikipedia contributors, "Demographics of Chicago," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia (accessed June 9, 2013).
Wikipedia contributors, "Demographics of Philadelphia," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia (accessed June 9, 2013).
Wikipedia contributors, "Boston," Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia (accessed June 9, 2013).
Steuereinnahmen als Anteil der Gesamteinnahmen
Tax Revenue as Share of Total Municipal Revenue
New York City
West German
Municipalities
$
€
62%
43%
East German
Municipalities: 27%
Sources:
Office of the New York State Comptroller, Review of the Financial Plan of the City of New York, June 2012 (Report 3-2013), p. 3.
Wikipedia contributors, “Kommunalfinanzen,“ Wikipedia, Die freie Enzyklopädie (accessed: June 13, 2013).
Bevölkerungswachstum in New York City, 2010-2011
Population Growth in New York City, 2010-2011
Gesamtbevölkerungswachstum
Population Growth
Natürliches Wachstum
Natural Growth
Saldo Zu-/Abwanderung
Net Migration
Saldo Zu-/Abwanderung International
Net International Migration
Saldo Zu-/Abwanderung National
Net Domestic Migration
Source: New York City Department of City Planning, Dynamics of Population Change New York City, accessed July 9, 2013.
Monatliche Ausgaben für Wohnung und Mobilität in New York und Umgebung
Monthly Expenditures for Housing and Transportation in New York City and Suburbs
Westchester
New York City
Nassau
Notes
Housing costs are based on mortgage payments based on the Zillow Home Value Index for May, 2013, with the
following median housing values: New York City: $458,300, Nassau $399,500, Westchester $483,600. For the
monthly payment, a 30-year mortgage at 5% interest was assumed (minus a 20% down payment). Utilities not
included.
Property tax information: Median property tax by county from 2010, based on the Tax Foundation “Property Tax
Data by County” database. For New York City, the numbers for Queens County were used.
Transportation cost: Car ownership cost in New York State in 2008 was $56,147 over a five year period in 2008,
according to Daniel McDermon, “Cost of Ownership Across 50 States”, The New York Times Wheels Blog
(2/21/2008), This cost includes gasoline, insurance, financing and maintenance but not the purchase price. A
combined total cost of $82,000 was assumed for purchase and other cost of car ownership over 5 years. Monthly
cost per car were multiplied with U.S. 2010 Census car ownership per household numbers (0.6 in New York City, and
1.6 each in Nassau and Westchester counties). Added to transportation cost were per household were costs of two
30-day Metrocards ($112 each) per household for New York City, and the monthly rail pass cost for Long Island
Railroad and Metro North Railroad, multiplied by Census 2010 data for train ridership.
Map:
New York City Department of City Planning, ZoLa.
Fallbeispiele
Examples
CD 1
GreenpointWilliamsburg
Queens
CD 3
Bed-Stuy
CD 5
East New York
Brooklyn
Map:
New York City Department of City Planning, ZoLa.
Greenpoint-Williamsburg, Brooklyn CD1
Population
White
Black
Hispanic
Median Income
Picture:
Sources:
CD 1
173,083
61%
5%
27%
BK
36%
32%
20%
$43,070 $43,342
Wikipedia, View of South Williamsburg, accessed 7/9/2013.
New York City Department of City Planning, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn Community District 1, accessed July 9, 2013.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY2011.
Bedford Stuyvesant, Brooklyn CD 3
Population
White
Black
Hispanic
11%
65%
20%
Median Income
Picture:
Sources:
CD 3
152,985
BK
36%
32%
20%
$38,037 $43,342
Wikipedia, Bedstuybrownstone1, accessed July 9, 2013.
New York City Department of City Planning, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn Community District 3, accessed July 9, 2013.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY 2011.
East New York, Brooklyn CD 5
Population
White
Black
Hispanic
Median Income
Picture:
Sources:
CD 5
182,896
BK
3%
52%
37%
3
3
2
$32,463 $43,3
Ralph Blessing
New York City Department of City Planning, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn Community District 5, accessed July 9, 2013.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY
Bevölkerung, ethnische Zusammensetzung und Wohneinheiten, 1990-2010
Changes in Population, Ethnic Composition and Housing Units, 1990-2010
CD 1
Sources:
CD 3
CD 5
BK
NYC
Population
11%
10%
13%
9%
12%
White Non-Hispanic
47%
1,267%
-59%
-3%
-14%
Black Non-Hispanic
-20%
-13%
22%
0%
1%
Hispanic Origin
-31%
35%
8%
7%
31%
Total Housing Units
30%
23%
27%
14%
13%
New York City Department of City Planning, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn Community District 1, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn
Community District 3, Community Data Portal, Brooklyn Community District 5, accessed July 9, 2013.
New York City Department of City Planning, Demographic Characteristics - New York City 1990 and 2000 Census, accessed July 9, 2013.
New York City Department of City Planning, Total Population by Mutually Exclusive Race and Hispanic Origin New York City and Boroughs,
1990 to 2010, accessed July 9, 2013.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY 2011.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2002, New York, NY 2002.
Mietwohnungen und Wohneigentum, 2010
Housing by Occupancy Type, 2010
45.0
40.0
41.1
37.8
35.0
32.6
30.0
20.0
25.1
24.8
17.7
24.3
23.1
20.4
Homeownership
27.4
27.2
25.0
32.132.0
30.230.9
Rent-Regulated
19.8
Public and Subsidized
Housing
16.4
14.0
15.0
11.4
11.5
Unregulated Rentals
10.0
5.0
0.0
CD 1
CD 3
CD 5
BK
NYC
Source: The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY 2011.
Anteil der nicht-preisgebundenen Mietwohnungen, 2000 und 2010
Share of Unregulated Rental Units, 2000 and 2010
45
40
35
30
25
2000
20
2010
15
10
5
0
CD 1
CD 3
CD 5
BK
NYC
Source: The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2011, New York, NY 2011.
The Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods 2002, New York, NY 2002.
Schlussfolgerungen
Conclusions
Wird New York City gentrifiziert?
Is New York City Gentryfying?
-
-
-
44% des Wohnraums in NYC unterliegt
Mietpreisbindung
Der Anteil der mietpreisgebundenen ist
von 2000-2010 um ca. 15 %
zurückgegangen
Obwohl die Gesamtbevölkerung zunimmt,
ist der Anteil der weißen
Bevölkerungsgruppe geschrumpft
Städtische Haushalte in den USA sind
stärker vom lokalen Steueraufkommen
abhängig als in Deutschland
Real ist das mittlere Einkommen in NYC
zwischen 2000 und 2010 zurückgegangen
Wohnkosten und Transportkosten
zusammengenommen sind in NYC
niedriger als in den Vororten, allerdings ist
das mittlere Einkommen niedriger
-
44% of all housing units in NYC are subject
to some form of rent-control
The share of rent-controlled units
declined by more than 15% between 2000
and 2010
Even though the City’s population is
growing, the share of white population is
shrinking
Municipal budgets in the U.S. are much
more dependent on local tax revenue
than in Germany
The median income in NYC - in constant
dollars - declined between 2000 and 2010
Combined housing and transportation
cost in NYC is lower than in the suburbs of
Nassau and Westchester, but median
incomes in the City are lower