Wasion Group Hol (3393 HK) A leading energy metering play

Transcription

Company Research
Company visit
Wasion Group Hol (3393 HK)
Hong Kong / Industrials
A leading energy metering play
11 November 2014
Established in 2000 and listed in 2005, Wasion Group is a leading
energy measurement instrument, system and service supplier in
China. On the back of its leading position and strong brand name,
Wasion serves over 4,500 customers across 6 major industries.
Supported by favorable policies imposed by Chinese government to
promote energy efficiency, coupled with the growing demand for
Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Advanced Distribution
Operation (ADO) systems, we think Wasion is well positioned to
capture the opportunity.
Riding on the rise of smart grid investments
Non rated
Target price
N/A
HK$7.97
Last price (11 Nov 14)
Upside/downside (%)
HSI
Mkt cap (HK$mn/US$mn)
52 week range (HK$)
Avg trading volume daily (US$mn)
Free float (%)
23808.28
7,586/978
4.10 - 8.20
1.71
44.6%
Source: Bloomberg
Performance
China has put lots of effort in constructing smart power grid for the past few years.
State Grid had invested RMB159b in 1H14 and is expected to massively increase its
investment to speed up the construction in 2H14 and 2015. By 2020, the coverage
rate of the automation of the urban smart power distribution grid is expected to
reach 80%. China’s smart grid is currently at AMI application stage and ADO is just
at a start off stage. With the State Grid’s large scale investment in smart grid
infrastructure, demand for AMI and ADO should continue to grow. Wasion is one
of the key beneficiaries for this favorable trend.
Low penetration of ADO offers room of growth
Penetration rate of AMI is c.70% compared to 10% for ADO (with the remaining
90% are still using manual or semi-manual controls). Chinese government has
already introduced a series of guidelines and regulations to speed up the
promotion of ADO application in order to upgrade the whole system. Recognizing
and foreseen well beforehand the importance of ADO system to support for new
energy power generation and energy efficiency management, Wasion has stepped
up the development of its ADO business in recent years to tap the potential
opportunity.
HK$
8.00
160%
7.00
140%
6.00
120%
5.00
100%
4.00
3.00
Nov-13
80%
Jul-14
Price(LHS)
Performance
Absolute (%)
Absolute (US$, %)
Relative to HSI (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Rel. to HSI(RHS)
1M
14.8
14.9
11.7
3M
21.3
21.3
24.7
12M
62.0
62.0
58.8
Water meter serves as the next potential growth catalyst
Unlike electricity, which operates at national level, water only operates at local
provincial level. That is why water meters have lagged electric meters in migrating
to smart meters. However, NDRC has started to promote the use of smart meters
for water utility to improve the accuracy and functionality. Benefited by this policy,
the sales of smart meter will become a new growth driver for Wasion in the
coming 3-5 years.
Deep valuation discount to peers
Wasion will continue to beef up innovation capabilities in order to seize market
opportunity. It will continue to spend 5-6% of revenue in R&D. The stock is now
trading at consensus earnings of 12.8x versus its Chinese peers’ average of 18.2x.
Company background
Wasion Group Holdings Ltd. is a leading energy
metering and energy efficiency management expert
focusing in providing integrated total solutions in
efficient and effective energy management and energy
saving.
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 1: Financial Summary
Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn)
Revenue
Operating Profit
Reported Profit
EPS (CNY)
DPS (CNY)
P/E (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
Net debt/equity (%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
2011A
2012A
2013A
1,969
314
247
0.26
0.12
23.8
1.9
4.3
10.7
6.1
2,452
408
323
0.35
0.14
18.1
2.2
0.8
13.0
7.4
2,412
445
401
0.43
0.17
14.8
2.7
2.6
14.7
8.9
Source: Guosen Securities(HK)
See the last page of this report for important disclosures
E Wuen Tan
SFC CE No.: ANY308
+852 2899 8329
[email protected]
1
公司报告
公司参观
威胜集团控股有限公司
(3393 HK)
智能配用电和管理的領先供应商
成立于 2000 年，并于 2005 年上市，威胜集团是中国领先的能源计
量设备，系统和服务供应商。基于它的领先地位和强大的品牌，
威胜拥有超过 4,500 家客户，来自 6 大不同的行业。期內，在利好
中国政府提高能源效率的政策支持下，市场對於智能計量業務
（AMI）和智能配用電業務（ADO）的需求持續上升。我们认为威胜
处于有力的市场地位夺取机会
受惠智能电网投资的兴起
过去几年，中國政府大力推動智能电网建設，目的是以智能电网作為基礎。
國网對智能电网建设的投资达人民币 1,588 億元，为了加快建设，国网預
料將在下半年及 2015 年大幅增加建设智能电网的投資。2020 年，城市智
能配电网自动化的覆盖率有望达到 80％。目前中国的智能电网，AMI 处于
在使用着的阶段和 ADO 只是处于起步阶段。随着国家电网公司在智能电网
基础设施的大规模投资，未来几年，AMI 和 ADO 需求将继续增长。威胜则
是其中一个有利的受益者。
香港 / 工业
未评级
2014 年 11 月 11 日
N/A
HK$7.97
目标价
收盘价 (11 Nov 14)
Upside/downside (%)
恒生指数
总市值 (HK$/US$mn)
52 周最高/最低 (HK$)
日均成交额 (US$mn)
流通量 (%)
23808.28
7,586/978
4.10 - 8.20
1.71
44.6%
资料来源: 彭博
股价表现
HK$
8.00
160%
7.00
140%
6.00
ADO 低渗透提供扩张的空位
120%
5.00
相比于 AMI 的普及率的 c.70％，ADO 才 10%。剩余的 90％仍然使用手工或
半手工控制。中国政府已经推出一系列更多支持政策，加快推广 ADO 应用
程序。威胜的 ADO 业务正是事先預見到這一發展方向而準備的，必將迎
來重大的發展機遇。公司成功完成对成湖南開以及武汉百楚的收购，进
一步提升了公司的研发产品的能力。
水表有潜力为下一个增长动力
目前智能水計量业务属于成长期。国家发改委已开始推广使用智能水来提
高精度和功能。市場空間巨大。受惠于此政策，來三至五年的智能水表业
對威胜的貢献会成为新的业績来源。
100%
4.00
3.00
Nov-13
80%
Jul-14
Price(LHS)
股票数据
绝对回报 (%)
绝对回报 (US$, %)
相对 HSI 回报 (%)
Rel. to HSI(RHS)
1M
14.8
14.9
11.7
3M
21.3
21.3
24.7
12M
62.0
62.0
58.8
估值吸引
威胜将继续强化创新能力,抢占市场先机。公司将继续投入收入的 5-6％
在研发。威胜 FY15 的市盈率为 12.8 倍，相对于中国同业平均之 18.2 倍。
公司簡介
威胜集团控股有限公司是中国智能計量、智能配用电与能
效管理整体解決方案的領先供应商。
Figure 2: 盈利预测
截至 Dec 31
(人民币百万)
营业额
经营盈利
净利润
每股盈利 (CNY)
每股股息 (CNY)
市盈率 (x)
股息率 (%)
净债务与股本 (%)
净资产收益率 (%)
资产报酬率 (%)
2011A
2012A
2013A
1,969
314
247
0.26
0.12
23.8
1.9
4.3
10.7
6.1
2,452
408
323
0.35
0.14
18.1
2.2
0.8
13.0
7.4
2,412
445
401
0.43
0.17
14.8
2.7
2.6
14.7
8.9
陈仪雯
证监会中央编号:ANY308
+852 2899 8329
[email protected]
资料来源：国信证券(香港)
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
2
E Wuen Tan, +852 2899 8329, [email protected]
Company profile
Redefine the business model according to global technical classification
Positioned as system
solution provider
Since established in 2000, Wasion has devoted huge effort in R&D to evolve itself from developing
metering, terminals and system business to become a system solution provider. Starting from this
year, Wasion redefined its business segments. Previously, to promote better public understanding
towards its business, Wasion categorised its business into three segments namely :- i) electronic
meters; ii) data collection terminals and iii) energy efficiency solution. But now, with the rise of
smart power grid which led to a set of systematic standards and definition for technical framework,
Wasion restructured its business operations to Advanced Metering Infrastructutre (AMI);
Advanced Distribution Operations (ADO) and smart meter (SM). This will also helps to facilitate a
better resources allocation and performance evaluation for different segment.
Figure 3 1H14 Sales mix
Figure 4 1H14 Customers mix
Nonpower
grid ADO
7%
SM
39%
AMI
53%
Export
6%
Nonpower
grid AMI
13%
Power
grid
74%
ADO
8%
Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Business segment overview.
Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). AMI business mainly includes system
solution and services, communication terminals solution and non-standardized
advanced metering products. This segment contributed 53% of the company’s total
revenue in 1H14. This segment can be further subdivided into power business, water,
gas and heat business, indicating Wasion serves a wide spectrum of customers from
diversified industries. Out of 53%, 47% of sales were from power business, 5% from
water and the remaining 1% from gas and heats. Sales of this segment up 5% YoY
amounted to RMB723m in 1H14.
Smart meter (SM). As smart power meter contributed a significant portion of the
company’s overall sales, Wasion decided to single out smart power metering from AMI
business as an independent business segment, which mainly comprised of standardized
products collectively procured by State Grid and China Southern Power Grid. Meter
sales that are not sold under the centralized tendering system will group under AMI
sales. Revenue from SM increased by 22% YoY to RMB529m in 1H14. Currently, the
capacity is running at 70% utilization rate. Capacity constraint is not a big issue as the
company can easily add one production line within 5 months.
Advanced Distribution Operations (ADO). ADO service comprises of smart distribution
devices, smart distribution solutions and efficient and effective solutions. This segment
accounted for 8% of total sales in 1H14. Recognizing the importance of ADO as a crucial
Guosen Securities (HK)
3
foundation to support new energy power generation and energy efficiency
management, Wasion has stepped up its effort in ADO business through acquisitions of
Hunan Switchgear and Wuhan Baichu this year and strategic cooperation with
international giant Siemens, of which Wasion will produce a series of mid-low voltage
electric products. As a result, its ADO recorded a 375% YoY growth to RMB115m in
1H14.
Acquisition to speed up the ADO expansion
Acquisition to step up
Wasion’s ADO development
process
Wasion acquired 2 companies this year- 66% equity interest in Wuhan Baichu for a consideration
of c. RMB53m and 65% in Hunan Switchgear for a consideration of RMB21m in April and May this
year, respectively. Both acquisitions will help to speed up the development of Wasion’s ADO
business.
Wuhan Baichu is principally engaged in manufacturing, developing and selling
switchgears, ring main unit switchgears and pole-mounted circuit breakers that used in
power stations and public communities. Through this acqusition, it enables Wasion to
consolidate R&D resources for advances technologies planning and development.
Hunan Switchgear is principally engaged in manufacturing, developing and selling
switchgears and circuit breaker that used in the power stations and public communities.
Hunand Switchgear serves a number of high-end customers such as Huaneng Power,
China Power Investment and China Machinery Engineering. Wasion can leverage on
Hunan’s quality clientele to further extend its exisitng client bases.
Enhancing geographical coverage
Extending international
footprint through
cooperation with Siemens
in 1H14, tunover from overseas business amounted to RMB77m, representing a YoY increase of
99% compared to 1H13. Major market for export busniess are Sourth Africa, Indonesia and
Republic of Bangladesh. Contribution from exports business increase from 3% in 1H13 to 6% in
1H14. In 2013, Siemens and Wasion co-established Smart Metering Solutions. Leveraging on
Siemen’s strong R&D platform for technology training and support, this does not only help to
strengthen the company’s AMI and ADO business but also gain access to overseas opportunities by
tapping into the emerging countries with huge growth potentials.
Strong R&D capabilities
Wasion has devoted huge resources in R&D to further expand its technological research on AMI
and ADO annually. It has two national R&D centers and an internationally certified laboratory. As
of 1H14, Wasion had 527 valid patents, including 46 patents of new products and energy efficiency
services acquired in 1H14. Generally, R&D costs accounted for 5-6% of Wasion’s total sales.
4
Figure 5 Historical turnover and net profit (m)
3 000
450
400
2 500
350
2 000
300
250
1 500
200
1 000
150
100
500
50
0
0
200 5
200 6
200 7
200 8
200 9
201 0
Turnover
201 1
201 2
201 3
Ne t profit
Figure 6 Peer comparable
Company
Ticker
Wasion Group Hol
3393 HK
HSI
CSI300
Price
Mkt cap
(US$m)
3-mth avg
t/o
(US$m)
PER
Hist (x)
PER
FY1 (x)
PER
FY2 (x)
8.10
994
1.7
1685 HK
Shenzhen Clou-A
EPS FY2
YoY%
Div yld
FY1 (%)
P/B FY1
(x)
14.9
12.8
10.6
14.1
21.5
5.4
0.83
23,890
10.3
11.0
10.2
(6.6)
7.9
3.6
1.31
2,582
11.2
10.4
9.0
7.0
15.3
2.8
1.50
24.5
18.2
14.3
13.7
69.3
1.5
3.22
Adjusted sector avg*
Boer Power Holdi
EPS
FY1
YoY%
8.79
880
0.7
15.1
11.5
9.3
(13.0)
86.0
N/A
N/A
002121 CH
13.75
898
19.8
62.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Jiangsu Linyan-A
601222 CH
25.50
1,473
11.8
24.3
19.3
15.3
(43.3)
178.3
1.5
N/A
Ningbo Sanxing-A
601567 CH
15.78
1,046
4.6
22.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Changyuan Gro-A
600525 CH
12.46
1,758
18.2
35.6
26.3
19.5
35.1
35.3
1.0
3.79
Sieyuan Electr-A
002028 CH
11.67
1,176
25.3
20.7
16.3
14.4
27.1
13.4
2.3
2.03
Xj Electric-A
000400 CH
20.17
3,324
60.5
28.5
17.6
13.1
62.5
33.7
1.1
3.82
Figure 7 Trailing PE band chart
Figure 8 Trailing PB band chart
HK$
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Feb-11
7.00
max 17.4X
6.00
max 1.5X
+1sd 1.4X
+1sd 14.1X
5.00
avg 11.3X
4.00
PB(x) 1.2X
3.00
min 0.7X
PE(x) 8.7X
-1sd 8.5X
min 7.1X
avg 1.2X
-1sd 1.0X
2.00
1.00
Oct-11
Jun-12
Feb-13
Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research
Oct-13
0.00
Feb-11
Oct-11
Jun-12
Feb-13
Oct-13
Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research
5
Summary financial statements
Profit & Loss (RMBmn)
Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Other income/(expense)
Operating expenses
Operating profit
2011A 2012A 2013A
1,969
2,452
2,412
(1,373) (1,648) (1,566)
596
805
847
76
77
88
(357)
(473)
(490)
314
408
445
Financial Ratios
2011A 2012A 2013A
Revenue growth (%)
47.9
24.6
Operating profit growth (%)
60.4
29.9
(1.6)
9.0
Reported profit growth (%)
29.4
31.0
23.9
Underlying profit growth (%)
29.4
31.0
23.9
Underlying EPS growth (%)
30.4
31.2
23.0
Dividend growth (%)
31.9
15.2
22.3
Other non operating inc/(exp)
10
1
35
Gross profit margin (%)
30.3
32.8
35.1
Finance income
44
48
28
Operating profit margin (%)
16.0
16.7
18.4
(98)
(102)
(61)
Underlying profit margin (%)
12.5
13.2
16.6
0
0
(7)
Net debt/equity (%)
4.3
0.8
2.6
Profit before taxation
270
356
439
Net debt/total assets (%)
2.3
0.5
1.6
Taxation
(23)
(32)
(39)
Current ratio (%)
193
175
186
0
0
0
Dividend payout (%)
45.9
40.4
39.9
247
323
401
5.6
6.5
13.6
2.2
2.5
2.5
Finance expenses
Associates & JCE
Non-controlling interests
Net profit
Other Adjustments on UP
Underlying Profit
0
0
0
247
323
401
Source: Guosen Research estimates
Interest cover (x)
Dividend cover (x)
Dupont Analysis
2011A 2012A 2013A
Tax burden (%)
91.4
90.9
91.2
Interest burden (%)
85.8
87.1
98.7
Operating profit margin (%)
16.0
16.7
18.4
Asset turnover (x)
0.5
0.6
0.5
Leverage ratio (x)
1.7
1.7
1.6
ROA (%)
6.1
7.4
8.9
ROE (%)
10.7
13.0
14.7
Balance Sheet (RMBmn)
Fixed assets
Associates & JCE
Others
Non-current assets
Inventories
2011A 2012A 2013A
776
918
899
0
0
7
476
545
714
1,252
1,463
1,620
Cashflow (RMBmn)
EBIT
271
355
Depreciation & amortization
105
102
100
Interest income
(44)
(48)
(48)
Change in working capital
(65)
157
(187)
Tax paid
(26)
(22)
(35)
41
52
(2)
282
597
268
(170)
(180)
(30)
238
442
323
307
1,528
1,408
1,718
Bank deposits & cash
987
586
553
Operating activities
Others
236
486
543
Purchase of non-current assets (Capex)
Debtors & prepayments
Current assets
3,193
2,803
3,122
Bank & other borrowings
700
548
453
Trade & payables
928
1,010
1,182
Taxation
Others
Current liabilities
Bank & other borrowings
Others
Non-current liabilities
Net assets
Share capital
0
0
0
29
41
46
1,656
1,599
1,681
389
57
173
15
12
14
403
70
187
2,385
2,597
2,873
2011A 2012A 2013A
Other operating cashflow
Free cash flow
440
112
417
Disposal of non-current assets
0
8
32
Associates & JCE (net)
0
0
(20)
44
48
28
6
2
5
Other investing cashflow
(172)
(218)
(182)
Investing activities
(293)
(339)
(168)
New loans raised
1,273
608
868
Repayment of loans
(686) (1,091)
(839)
Interest received
Dividends received
Dividends paid
(86)
(113)
(133)
9
9
9
Other financing cashflow
(56)
(63)
(28)
Premium & reserves
2,375
2,587
2,863
Financing activities
445
(658)
(132)
Shareholders' funds
2,385
2,596
2,873
Inc/(dec) in cash
434
(401)
(32)
0
0
0
Cash at beginning of year
554
987
586
2,385
2,597
2,873
Non-controlling interests
Total equity
Foreign exchange effect
Cash at end of year
(1)
0
(1)
987
586
553
6
Information Disclosures
Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions
Stock Ratings:
Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Sector Ratings:
Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 –12 months.
Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 – 12 months.
Interest disclosure statement
The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an
officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies.
Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively “Guosen Securities (HK)”) has no disclosable
financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen
Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK)
has no individual employed by the listed companies.
Disclaimers
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The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any
buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek
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7
信息披露
公司评级、行业评级及相关定义
公司评级
买入：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘涨幅在 10%以上；
中性：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘涨幅介于-10%与 10%之间；
减持：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10%。
行业评级
超配：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10%以上；
中性：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报介于市场整体水平-10%与 10%之间；
低配：我们预计未来 6-12 个月内，行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10%以上。
利益披露声明
报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士，分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员，也未持有
其任何财务权益。
本报告中，国信证券（香港）经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构（合称国信证券（香港））并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务
权益(包括持股)，在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系，亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动。本公司员工均非该
上市公司的雇员。
免责条款
证券价格有时可能非常波动。证券价格可升可跌，甚至变成毫无价值。买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润，反而可能会招致损
失。
本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券（香港）的推荐意见，也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约。国信证券（香港）
或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务（例如配售代理、牵头经办人、保荐人、包销商或
从事自营投资于该股票）。国信证券（香港）不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团。
报告中的资料均来自公开信息，我们力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的正确性、公正性及完整性不做任何保证。本报告没有考
虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，并不构成个人投资建议，客户据此投资，责任自负。客户在阅读本研究报
告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况。本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图。
本报告仅向特定客户传送，未经国信证券香港书面授权许可，任何人不得引用、转载以及向第三方传播，否则可能将承担法
律责任。研究报告所载的资料及意见，如有任何更改，本司将不作另行通知。在一些管辖区域内，针对或意图向该等区域内
的市民、居民、个人或实体发布、公布、供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券
（香港）受制于任何注册或领牌规定，则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民、居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体。
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Wasion Group Hol (3393 HK) A leading energy metering play

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