Publikationstyp Date - Macro Research

Macro Research
25. februar 2016
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 Fra USA kommer der i dag ordreindgangen på varige goder, som forventes at vise et fornuftigt rebound i januar efter det markante fald måneden før, der var trukket ned af et svagere bilsalg. ISM’s ordreindeks har da
også peget på en svag fremgang. Kerneordreindgangen ventes også at
være steget om end i lidt mindre omfang, som vil være et positivt signal for
investeringsaktiviteten i begyndelsen af det nye år.
 Fra euroområdet kommer det endelige tal for inflationen i januar. Det
afviger normalt ikke fra den foreløbige opgørelse (0,4% y/y), men nogle
har spekuleret i en nedrevidering på grund af den årlige revidering af vægte i forbindelse med skift af basisår til 2015. Der kommer også tal for pengemængden og kreditgivningen i januar. Mens årsvæksten i kreditgivningen til husholdninger har været positivt i et lille års tid, faldt væksten i
udlånet til virksomhederne (de ikke-finansielle) tilbage under nul i december efter to måneder med svag positiv vækst. Vi venter endnu en vækstrate lige omkring nul i januar.
 Det svenske Konjunkturinstituttets økonomiske barometer ventes at
være faldet lidt i januar til omkring 109 fra 111,9 i december. Det vil dog
stadig være et meget stærkere niveau end normalt.
 I morgen tidlig offentliggøres kinesiske boligpriser for januar, hvor vi
venter, at antallet af byer blandt de 70 omfattet af statistikken med prisstigninger er steget i forhold til decembers 39.
USA: Ordreindgangen ventes at rebound’e
Kilde: Macrobond
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder havde en dårlig dag i går med
relativt store kursfald. Efter store fald fra åbningen på de amerikanske børser rettede de amerikanske aktier sig løbende og endte dagen i små plusser. I Tokyo er børsen i plus her til morgen, mens de kinesiske børser er i
minus. Resten af Asien er blandet. Statsrenterne faldt i Tyskland og Danmark i takt med aktiekursfaldene, mens de amerikanske renter steg sammen med de amerikanske aktier. EUR marginalt stærkere over for USD:
 USA: Antallet af solgte nye boliger i januar faldt mere end ventet til
494.000 i januar fra 544.000 i december. Faldet var størst i det vestlige
USA, hvor vinteren var hård i januar. Markits Service-PMI faldt overraskende under 50 til 49,8 i februar fra 53,2 i januar. Der var ventet en lille
stigning. Tallet er det laveste i lidt over to år. Det øger bekymringerne om
styrken af opsvinget i USA, idet det indtil for nyligt så ud til, at servicesektoren ikke lod sig mærke af nedgangen i industrien og i resten af verden.
Det øger samtidig fokus på den tættere fulgte ISM-serviceindikator, som
offentliggøres om en uge. Fed’s Lacker udtalte i går, at det er nødvendigt
at tage markedsvolatiliteten alvorligt, men at det er for tidligt at sige, om
det påvirker udsigterne for økonomien.
 Kina: Myndighederne meldte i går ud, at der ikke længere vil være begrænsninger i udenlandske investorers adgang til Kinas onshore obligationsmarked. Det burde dæmpe frygten for, at Kina har opgivet processen
med at åbne de finansielle markeder op for omverdenen. Tilliden til at processen fortsætter led ellers et knæk efter myndighedernes kluntede håndtering af ændringen af valutakursregimet sidste år og reaktionen på den
massive kapitaludstrømning siden da. Kinas banker har fået lov at frasælge en del af deres misligholdte lån, hvorved lånene ikke længere figurerer
på balancen.
 Frankrig: Forbrugertilliden faldt lidt til 95. Der var ventet uændret værdi på
97.
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
USA: Fald i salget af nye boliger i januar
Kilde: Macrobond
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. februar 2016
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (-2,99% /
indeks 955,47) fulgte i går den kedelige udvikling som prægede de europæiske børser. Den
negative stemning kom som følge af faldende
oliepriser, foranlediget af åbenlys mistillid
mellem OPEC-landene Iran og Saudi Arabien,
hvilket skabte tvivl om en eventuel aftale om
fastfrysning af olieproduktionen med det
formål, at stabilisere olieprisen. I bunden af
indekset endte blandt andet Jyske Bank (4,84% / kurs 287,30) der fik sænket sit
kursmål af en lang række finanshuse efter
den foregående dags relativt udramatiske
regnskab. Danske Bank (-3,83% / kurs
181,00) fik også sit kursmål sænket af et
finanshus. Desuden gik der rygter om, at den
svenske storaktionær aktivistfonden Cevian
Capital kan være på vej med et frasalg af sin
14 mia. kr. store aktiepost, eftersom partner i
Cevian Capital Lars Förberg har trukket sig fra
Danske Banks bestyrelse. Uden for det ledende C20-indeks kom Sydbank (-8,43% /
kurs 179,30) under relativt kraftigt pres efter
banken rapporterede et 4. kvartalsregnskab
hvor nettorenteindtægterne og gebyrindtægterne skuffede, mens handelsindtægterne og
tab på udlån overraskede til den positive side.
Aktien blev dog især presset af at ledelsen
indikerede en vis usikkerhed omkring forventningerne til 2016.
Der var fald i de tyske og danske statsrenter i
går i takt med aktiekursfald og olieprisfald,
idet den dårlige stemning sendte investorerne
i retning mod obligationer.
GBP fortsatte den rutchetur, som blev sat i
gang i weekenden efter Londons karismatiske
borgmester Boris Johnson meldte ud, at han
støtter et nej til fortsat EU-medlemskab ved
den kommende folkeafstemning. Det har øget
spekulationerne om såkaldt ”Brexit”, og markederne reagerer altså ved at svække GBP.
Stemningen vendte kort inde i den amerikanske handel, da aktierne og olieprisen begyndte at stige, hvorved de amerikanske statsrenter også steg og mere end udviskede faldet
tidligere på dagen. Nøgletallene fra USA var
ellers ikke opløftende, men det var trods alt
ikke de vigtigste nøgletal, som kom i går. Der
var et større end ventet fald i antallet af solgte
nye boliger og et stort fald til under 50 i Markits service-PMI.
USD blev først styrket over for EUR i takt med
aktiekursfald og olieprisfald i Europa i går.
Efter de amerikanske aktiemarkeder åbnede,
vendte stemningen, og USD begyndte at
svækkes så USD her til morgen ligger lidt
svagere over for EUR end i går morges.
JPY fulgte samme mønster som USD med
styrkelse i går i takt med sur stemning på de
globale aktiemarkeder og svækkelse i går
aftes dansk tid og her til morgen i takt med
aktiekursstigninger.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
OMXC20CAP
955.5
-2.99
USD/JPY
112.5
0.720
USA
1.74
0.02
Stoxx600
320.2
-2.30
EUR/USD
1.103
0.001
Euroområdet
0.15
-0.03
Brent oil (1M fut)
FTSE
5867.2
-1.60
USD/DKK
6.769
-0.006
Danmark
0.51
-0.03
Gold (spot)
S&P500
1929.8
0.44
CHF/DKK
6.842
0.021
-0.026
Nasdaq
4542.6
0.87
GBP/DKK
9.437
Hang Seng
18956.7
-1.23
SEK/DKK
0.798
0.000
Nikkei
16045.8
0.82
NOK/DKK
0.781
-0.006
CRB
%-Ændring
161.5
0.66
34.1
4.19
1232.8
0.44
Q2 2016
Q4 2016
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
(Ultimo)
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
Q1 2016 Q2 2016
0.250
0.05
0.50
0.05
-0.50
0.75
0.375
0.05
0.50
0.05
-0.50
0.50
0.625
0.05
0.50
0.05
-0.50
0.25
Q4 2016
1.125
0.05
0.50
0.05
-0.50
0.00
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2016
1.74
0.15
1.36
0.51
0.48
1.41
1.90
0.60
1.50
0.60
0.60
1.35
2.10
0.80
1.75
0.75
0.70
1.35
2.30
1.00
2.25
0.85
0.90
1.10
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1.103
112.5
6.769
7.463
0.7980
0.7813
Valuta
Q1 2016
1.08
115.0
6.91
7.46
0.802
0.785
1.05
120.0
7.10
7.46
0.811
0.785
0.95
126.0
7.84
7.45
0.828
0.784
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. februar 2016
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
Dato
22/02/16
23/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
Selskab
Simcorp
Jyske Bank
Solar
Sydbank
Per Aarsleff
Banknordik
NKT Holding
Rockwool
Regnskab
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
4. kvartal
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
22/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
23/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
24/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
25/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
26/02/16
Tid
03:00
09:00
10:00
10:00
10:00
12:00
14:30
15:45
19:00
19:00
08:00
08:45
10:00
14:30
14:30
15:00
16:00
16:00
16:00
06:00
08:45
10:00
13:00
15:45
16:00
18:00
19:15
01:00
08:00
09:00
09:00
10:00
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:00
11:00
14:15
14:30
14:30
14:30
15:00
17:00
18:00
00:30
01:05
02:30
08:45
08:45
08:45
09:30
10:00
11:00
14:00
14:30
14:30
16:00
16:00
16:00
16:15
19:30
19:30
Land
Japan
Danmark
EMU
EMU
EMU
UK
USA
USA
EMU
USA
Tyskland
FR
Tyskland
USA
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
Japan
Frankrig
Italien
USA
USA
USA
Frankrig
USA
USA
Tyskland
Sverige
Sverige
EMU
Italien
UK
EMU
EMU
Italien
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Japan
UK
Kina
Frankrig
Frankrig
Frankrig
Sverige
Norge
EMU
Tyskland
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
EMU
Indikator
Periode
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
Feb P
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Jan
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Feb P
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Feb P
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Feb P
CBI Trends Total Orders
Feb
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Jan
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Feb P
ECB's Sabine Lautenschläger Speaks in Stuttgart
NY Fed's Potter Speaks in New York
GDP SA (QoQ/YoY)
4Q F
Business Confidence
Feb
IFO Business Climate
Feb
Fed's Fischer Speaks in Houston on Monetary Policy
ECB's Danièle Nouy Speaks in London
S&P/CS 20 City SA (MoM/YoY)
Dec
Consumer Confidence Index
Feb
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Feb
Existing Home Sales
Jan
Small Business Confidence
Feb
Consumer Confidence
Feb
Industrial Sales (MoM/YoY)
Dec
MBA Mortgage Applications
19. Feb
Markit US Services PMI
Feb P
New Home Sales
Jan
Jobseekers Net Change
Jan
Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Dallas
Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York
GfK Consumer Confidence
Mar
Manufacturing Confidence s.a.
Feb
Consumer Confidence
Feb
M3 Money Supply (YoY)
Jan
Business Confidence
Feb
GDP (QoQ/YoY)
4Q P
CPI (MoM/YoY)
Jan F
CPI Core YoY
Jan F
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Dec
Fed's Lockhart to speak at Banking Conference
Initial Jobless Claims
20. Feb
Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
Jan P
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM)
Jan P
FHFA House Price Index (MoM)
Dec
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
Feb
Fed's Williams Speaks in New York
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY)
Jan
GfK Consumer Confidence
Feb
Property Prices
Jan
CPI (MoM/YoY)
Feb P
GDP (QoQ/YoY)
4Q P
Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY)
Jan
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Jan
Unemployment rate
Feb
Economic Confidence
Feb
CPI (MoM/YoY)
Feb P
Advance Goods Trade Balance
Jan
GDP Annualized (QoQ)
4Q S
Personal Spending (MoM)
Jan
PCE Core (MoM/YoY)
Jan
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Feb F
Fed's Powell Discusses Fed Communication
Fed's Brainard Speaks on International Policy Synchronization
ECB's Peter Praet Speaks on Panel in New York
Survey
52.0
0.3%/
52.0
53.5
53.3
-12
-0.05
52.5
SHB
----53.0
----
Forrige
52.3
-0.8%/0.0%
52.3
53.6
53.6
-15
-0.34 (r)
52.4
Faktisk
50.2
0.5%/1.0%
51.0
53.0
52.7
-17
0.28
51.0
0.3%/1.3%
102
106.8
0.3%/1.3%
---
0.3%/1.3%
103 (r)
107.3
0.3%/1.3%
103
105.7
0.8%/5.6%
97.2
2
5.40m
47.1
97
--53.5
520k
--
------------
0.94%/5.83%
97.8(r)
2
5.46m
47.2
97
-1.1%/0.8%
8.20%
53.2
544k
15.8
0.8%/5.74%
92.2
-4
5.47m
47.9
95
-1.6%/-3.0%
-4.3%
49.8
494k
-27.9
9.3
115.0
96.8
4.7%
-0.5%/1.9%
-1.4%/0.4%
1.0%
--
-116.0
96.5
--0.5%/1.9%
1.0%
--
9.4
120.8
97.5
4.7%
103.2
0.5%/1.9%
--/0.2%
1.0%
0.3%/-0.1%
270k
2.6%
1.0%
0.5%
-6
------
262k
-5.0%
-4.3%
0.5%
-9
0.0%
3
---
0.1%
4
0.4%/0.0%
0.2%/1.3%
0.6%/0.3%
1.5%/3.7%
3.3%
104.3
0.5%/0.1%
-$61.200b
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%/1.5%
91.0
----3.3%
--------
-1.0%/0.2%
0.2%/1.3%
0.7%/0.3%
-1.5%/3.4%
3.4%
105.0
-0.8%/0.5%
-$61.513b
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%/1.4%
90.7
Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected])
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gæld er pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller g engengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”).
When distributed in the United States
Important Third-Party Research Disclosures:
SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA’s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation
practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report.
SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to “major U.S. institutional investors,” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any
other person
Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are
prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. (“HMSI”) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for
the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI
is a FINRA Member, telephone number (+1-212-326-5153).
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