Publikationstyp  Date

Macro Research
23. januar 2015
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 Mens markederne nok vil bruge dagen på at fordøje udmeldingerne fra ECB i
går, vil der på nøgletalsfronten i dag være fokus på PMI-tal fra alle de store
økonomier, hvoraf Japans og Kinas allerede er offentliggjort (se neden for).
 I USA er der komme øget fokus på Markits PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren. Det skyldes at indekset faktisk indikerede et stort fald i stemningen inden
for fremstillingsvirksomheder i december, hvor faldet i det tilsvarende ISMindeks kom bag på de fleste. Der ventes umiddelbart en lille stigning i PMIindekset til 54,0 fra forrige 53,9. Der bør være en lidt positiv effekt at hente fra
de faldende oliepriser, mens den stærkere USD i stigende grad kan risikere at
virke som en bremse for afsætningsmulighederne i udlandet. Opgørelsen over
antallet af solgte eksisterende boliger i december kommer også i dag.
 Vi venter en ny stigning i Composite PMI-indekset for euroområdet til 52,0
oven på den beskedne stigning i december. Medvirkende til en løftet optimisme
har nok været den mere stabile udvikling i forbrugertilliden, de seneste par måneders løftede aktiekurser, en svækket EUR og ikke mindst olieprisfaldet.
 I weekenden afholdes parlamentsvalg i Grækenland, hvor oppositionspartiet
Syriza står til at vinde. Partiet er indædt modstander af de krise- og reformtiltag,
som er blevet pålagt Grækenland som en del af hjælpepakkerne fra EU og IMF,
og partiet har tidligere truet med at ville trække Grækenland ud af eurosamarbejdet. Retorikken er dog blødt lidt op på det seneste.
USA: PMI faldet mere tilbage end ISM
Kilde: Macrobond
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: ECB leverede lidt mere end ventet, og formåede at sende aktier





op, renter markant ned og EUR svagere.
Euroområdet: ECB annoncerede som ventet en udvidelse af sit opkøbsprogram, så det nu også omfatter statsobligationer og supranationale obligationer
(obligationer udstedt af fælleseuropæiske myndigheder som fx den europæiske
investeringsbank, EIB). Sammen med de tidligere annoncerede opkøb af
ABS’ere og covered bonds vil ECB købe for i alt 60 mia. EUR om måneden fra
marts i år til udgangen af september 2016, hvoraf størstedelen nok vil være
statsobligationer. Programmet virker større end de fleste havde forventet, og
det forklarer nok den positive markedsreaktion. På den positive side tæller også, at Draghi gjorde det klart, at programmet vil blive forlænget, hvis der stadig
er et behøv efter september 2015. Til gengæld bliver der lidt skuffende kun tale
om deling af kreditrisikoen for en mindre del (20%) af de opkøbte obligationer,
mens resten af risikoen ligger hos de nationale centralbanker. Der kan også
købes fx græske statsobligationer under programmet, så længe Grækenland
lever op til kravene i hjælpeprogrammerne fra EU/IMF. Da den seneste programgennemgang er blevet udskudt, kan Grækenland dog ikke nå at være med
fra starten.
Kina: Flash-estimatet for Markits PMI for fremstillingsesektoren steg lidt til 49,8
fra 49,6 i december. Underkomponenten for nye eksportordrer faldt, så det tyder på at den lille fremgang var drevet af øget indenlandsk efterspørgsel. Det er
i tråd med at væksten i kreditgivningen steg lidt i december, og at pris- og aktivitetsfaldet på boligmarkedet er gået lidt ned i tempo på det seneste.
Japan: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg marginalt til 52,1 fra 52,0 i december.
Danmark: Efter ECB nye tiltag valgte Nationalbanken at sænke indskudsbevisrenten endnu et nøk med 0,15%-point til -0,35% og dermed til et nyt rekordlavt
niveau. Hvis EUR kan fortsætte sin tendens til svækkelse vil presset for en
stærkere DK givet være intakt, og i det tilfælde kan vi ikke udelukke, at Nationalbankens forsvar af DKK vil fortsætte med opkøb og rentenedsættelser. Givet
dette ikke viser sig tilstrækkeligt, kan det blive nødvendigt at spejle ECB's
ukonventionelle handlinger med annoncering af opkøb af obligationer (lige som
det var tilfældet med ECB's LTRO'er). Forbrugertilliden steg fra 6,0 til 9,0 i januar. Fremgangen i forbrugertilliden skyldes dog primært sæsonmæssige forhold, hvor især januarudsalget traditionelt har øget vurderingen af fordelagtigheden af at købe større forbrugsgoder. Renset for sæsonudsving er der således tale om et lille fald i forbrugertilliden fra 8,4 til 7,9, hvilket dog fortsat efterlader forbrugernes optimisme på et relativt højt niveau på vej ind i det nye år.
Detailsalget udviklede sig negativt i julemåneden med et fald på 0,5% m/m.
Sverige: Ledigheden faldt mere end ventet til 7,6% i december.
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
ECB går efter at øge balancen markant
Kilde: Macrobond
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. januar 2015
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
OMXC20 CAP (+0,50% / indeks 844,00)
endte i positivt territorium på en dag, hvor
investorernes fokus var rettet mod rentemødet
i den europæiske centralbank (ECB) hvor der
var store forventninger til, at ECB ville annoncere et opkøbsprogram af statsobligationer.
ECB levede op til markedets forventninger og
annoncerede et opkøbsprogram på 60 mia.
euro om måneden. Opkøbene vil finde sted i
perioden fra marts 2015 til september 2016.
Annonceringen af opkøbsprogrammet begunstigede især bankaktierne, heriblandt Nordea
(+4,54% / kurs 76,05) og Danske Bank
(+2,27% / kurs 171,50). Vestas (+2,46% /
kurs 245,60) havde også en god dag. Vindmølleproducenten annoncerede, at den havde
fået en amerikansk ordre på 298 megawatt.
Ordren omfatter 149 vindmøller og skal leveres i slutningen af i år til delstaten Oklahoma.
Så kom den længe ventede udvidelse af
ECB’s opkøbsprogram, så programmet nu er
markant større og også omfatter opkøb af
statsobligationer. Det sendte statsrenterne
markant nedad til nye rekordlave niveauer, og
de sydeuropæiske statsrentespænd indsnævredes. Sammen med de tidligere annoncerede opkøb af ABS’ere og covered bonds vil
ECB købe for i alt 60 mia. EUR om måneden
fra marts i år til udgangen af september 2016.
Programmet virker større end de fleste havde
forventet, og det forklarer nok den positive
markedsreaktion. På den positive side tæller
også, at Draghi gjorde det klart, at programmet vil blive forlænget, hvis der stadig er et
behøv efter september 2015. Til gengæld
bliver der lidt skuffende kun tale om deling af
kreditrisikoen for en mindre del (20%) af de
opkøbte obligationer, mens resten af risikoen
ligger hos de nationale centralbanker.
EUR svækkedes til det svageste niveau over
for USD i 11 år i går i kølvandet på ECB’s
annoncering af en udvidelse af opkøbsprogrammet. ECB vil begyndende fra marts i år
opkøbe for 60 mia. EUR hver måned, minimum frem til og med september 2016. Størstedelen af opkøbene vil være af statsobligationer. Der vil kun være risikodeling af 20% af
opkøbene, mens resten af risikoen kommer til at
I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr.
Hansen Holding (-5,44% / kurs 266,20) som
var hårdt ramt af, at flere finanshuse var ude
og sænke deres anbefalinger og kursmål på
aktien som følge af det skuffende regnskab,
der blev rapporteret dagen forinden.
De amerikanske statsrenter faldt også i går,
men ikke ligeså markant som i Europa.
.
ligge hos de nationale centralbanker. Progrmamet var nok større end de fleste havde ventet,
hvilket forklarer. At EUR blev svækket.
DKK blev svækket lidt i går formiddag, sandsynligvis fordi Nationalbanken var i markedet og
sælge DKK for at modgå styrkelsespresset. Efter
ECB nye tiltag valgte Nationalbanken at sænke
indskudsbevisrenten. Hvis EUR kan fortsætte sin
tendens til svækkelse vil presset for en stærkere
DK givet være intakt, og i det tilfælde kan vi ikke
udelukke, at Nationalbankens forsvar af DKK vil
fortsætte med opkøb og rentenedsættelser. Givet
dette ikke viser sig tilstrækkeligt, kan det blive
nødvendigt at spejle ECB's ukonventionelle
handlinger med annoncering af opkøb af obligationer (lige som det var tilfældet med ECB's
LTRO'er).
.
.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
OMXC20CAP
844,0
0,50
USD/JPY
118,5
0,190
Stoxx600
364,1
1,66
EUR/USD
1,133
-0,026
FTSE
6796,6
1,02
USD/DKK
6,568
0,152
S&P500
2063,2
1,53
CHF/DKK
7,533
0,071
Nasdaq
4750,4
1,78
GBP/DKK
9,851
0,143
Hang Seng
24802,7
1,14
SEK/DKK
0,797
0,013
Nikkei
17484,3
0,90
NOK/DKK
0,858
0,014
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
USA
1,87
-0,03
CRB
Euroområdet
0,45
-0,08
Brent oil (1M fut)
Danmark
0,33
-0,07
Gold (spot)
%-Ændring
218,3
-1,31
49,6
1,20
1294,8
0,45
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr.
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
0,125
0,05
0,50
0,05
0,00
1,25
0,250
0,05
0,50
0,05
0,00
1,00
0,500
0,05
0,75
0,05
0,00
1,00
+12 mdr.
1,000
0,05
1,00
0,05
0,25
1,00
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr. +12 mdr.
1,87
0,45
1,52
0,76
0,76
1,30
2,30
0,70
1,85
0,65
1,00
1,75
2,40
0,90
1,95
0,90
1,30
1,75
2,50
1,00
2,10
1,05
1,60
1,75
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1,133
118,4
6,568
7,443
0,7969
0,8578
Valuta
+3 mdr.
1,17
121,0
6,37
7,45
0,797
0,837
+6 mdr.
1,14
130,0
6,54
7,45
0,828
0,837
+12 mdr.
1,09
140,0
6,83
7,45
0,851
0,851
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. januar 2015
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
Dato
20-01-15
20-01-15
21-01-15
Selskab
Novozymes
Bang & Olufsen
Chr. Hansen Holding
Regnskab
Årsregnskab
2. kvartal
1. kvartal
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
19-01-15
19-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
20-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
21-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
22-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
23-01-15
Tid
01:01
06:00
03:00
03:00
03:00
03:00
08:00
11:00
11:00
16:00
10:30
10:30
10:30
13:00
14:30
14:30
09:00
09:00
09:30
10:30
11:00
12:00
13:45
13:45
14:30
15:00
15:45
16:00
17:00
02:35
02:45
08:45
10:00
10:00
10:00
10:00
10:30
10:30
15:00
15:45
16:00
16:00
Land
UK
Japan
Kina
Kina
Kina
Kina
Tyskland
Tyskland
Tyskland
USA
Japan
UK
UK
UK
USA
USA
USA
Danmark
Danmark
Sverige
UK
EMU
UK
EMU
EMU
USA
USA
USA
EMU
USA
Japan
Kina
Frankrig
EMU
EMU
EMU
EMU
UK
UK
Belgien
USA
USA
USA
Indikator
Periode
Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY)
Jan
Consumer Confidence Index
Dec
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
Dec
Retail Sales YoY
Dec
Industrial Production YoY
Dec
GDP (QoQ/YoY)
4Q
PPI (MoM/YoY)
Dec
ZEW Survey Current Situation
Jan
ZEW Survey Expectations
Jan
NAHB Housing Market Index
Jan
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY
Nov
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Nov
Bank of England Minutes
MBA Mortgage Applications
16. jan
Building Permits
Dec
Housing Starts
Dec
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Jan
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Dec
Unemployment Rate SA
PSNB ex Banking Groups
Dec
Euro Area Third Quarter Government Debt/govt. Defecit
CBI Business Optimism
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
Initial Jobless Claims
17. jan
FHFA House Price Index MoM
Nov
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
18. jan
Consumer Confidence
Jan A
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Business Confidence
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Jan P
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (not confirmed)
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Dec
Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY
Dec
Business Confidence
Jan
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Jan P
Existing Home Sales
Dec
Leading Index
Dec
Survey
-38.5
15.7%
11.7%
7.4%
1.7%/7.2%
-0.3%/-1.3%
12.0
40
58
SHB
--15.7%
11.9%
7.1%
1.6%/7.0%
-----
Forrige
-3.3%/7.0%
37.7
15.8%
11.7%
7.2%
1.9%/7.3%
0.0%/-0.9%
10.0
34.9
58
Faktisk
1.4%/8.2%
38.8
15.7%
11.9%
7.9%
1.5%/7.3%
-0.7%/-1.7%
22.4
48.4
57
1.9%
5.9%
---
1.6%
6.0%
1.8%
5.8%
-1055K
1040K
---9.4B
---7,0
0,2%
---
49.1%
1052K
1028K
6.0
0.8%/0.8%
7.8%
14.1B
14.2%
1032K
1089K
9.0
-0.5%/2.3%
7.6%
13.1B
0.050%
-0.200%
-0.3%
--10.5
--49.5
-51.0
52.0
0.050%
-0.200%
--------51,2
52,2
52.0
0.050%
-0.200%
316K
0.6%
45.4
-10.9
800%
52.0
49.6
94,0
50.6
0.050%
-0.200%
307K
0.8%
44.7
-8.5
3,00
52.1
49.8
-------
1.6%
6.4%
-6.9
-0.6%
3.0%
-54.0
5.05M
0.4%
51.4
4.93M
0.6%
Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected])
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at op lysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gæld er pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse e ller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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