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Lezak’s Recurring
Cycle
1.  Opening discussion
2.  2014 Hot Spot
3.  April 2, 2014 Verification
4.  Graphical Forecasts
5.  Severe Weather Tables
6.  120 Day Alert
7.  Arctic Oscillation
8.  North Atlantic Oscillation
9.  El Niño & La Niña 1-2 year forecast
10.  Summary & Conclusion
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
EL Niño Watch! As we move through spring and into the summer season we will have severe weather
dates to forecast, hurricane impacts along the coast to predict, and then we will be looking into next fall.
Should El Niño develop we will project into the winter season on what it will likely mean for your key
locations.
The weather pattern continues to cycle according to Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC). The cycle length has
been consistently in the range of 56 to 58 days. This latest storm system, that just hit the southern states
hard, is directly related to the one that produced a major winter storm that became somewhat famous
when the Atlanta Mayor was aggressive with cancelling most of the city activity for that storm system a
day in advance. This same part of the pattern is cycling through and another impacting storm hit that
same region with thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, and some hail. That region is just out of this year’s
hot spot and the severe weather was still somewhat limited. As we move deeper into the spring the hot
spot will light up in the next few weeks.
In this report we will look into that first week of May when one of the more active storm systems is likely to
cycle through and produce the conditions for a severe weather outbreak.
Gary Lezak
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Here is a closer up look at the hot spots for this season!
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Our first big severe weather forecast did end up verifying, but fortunately it was still
a bit too cool for a major outbreak. On the left is our 60 day forecast for a spike in
severe weather on April 2nd for your Kansas locations and on the right are the
storm reports for that day. As you can see there Is a concentration of hail reports
in south central and eastern Kansas, in the hot spots, but also just below major
damage size. There were reports of golf ball sized hail.
5/10/14
5/9/14
5/8/14
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4/23/14
4/22/14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4/21/14
Indiana/Ohio Region
Severe Weather Forecast
The weather pattern will increasingly have the ability to produce severe weather set-ups.
Each peak shows the part of the cycling weather pattern that has had a storm move by in
previous cycles. The May 4th to 10th time frame is the most likely period that will have at
least one big severe weather day across Indiana and Ohio. This has been in one of our
severe weather alerts.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
5/10/14
5/9/14
5/8/14
5/7/14
5/6/14
5/5/14
5/4/14
5/3/14
5/2/14
5/1/14
4/30/14
4/29/14
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4/27/14
4/26/14
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4/24/14
4/23/14
4/22/14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4/21/14
Kansas Region
Severe Weather Forecast
Just like for the Indiana/Ohio region, the Kansas region will have increasing risks for severe weather.
We have identified two main periods around the 30th of April and then the big storm in early May. The
computer models go out to 16 days and we will begin seeing the models project these set-ups. If they
fit that LRC, then we will gain much more confidence in the outlooks.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Indiana/Ohio Region
Severe Weather Forecast
100
90
80
70
60
50
Series1
40
30
20
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5/1/14
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4/27/14
0
4/25/14
10
This graphic shows the two big peaks in early May, and again in late May. The Super Bowl part of the
cycling weather pattern will be returning in late May into the first week of June. This could be the most
active part of the entire weather pattern. We are expecting a wet, stormy, and rather severe stretch late
in this forecast period.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
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3/17/14
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3/29/14
3/31/14
4/2/14
4/4/14
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4/14/14
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4/28/14
4/30/14
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5/22/14
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5/28/14
5/30/14
6/1/14
6/3/14
6/5/14
6/7/14
6/9/14
Kansas Region
Severe Weather Potential
This is the overall severe weather outlook for this up-coming severe weather season.
The peaks show the high confidence that storm systems will produce severe
weather. There are five periods between now and June 10th that have 80%
confidence or higher. As we move through this next LRC cycle we will be able to
better identify the dates and narrow down the ranges if possible.
There are three more storm systems we are monitoring for the potential of severe
weather in your locations. They do not look like classic severe weather events as
cold air will be involved and will likely keep the severe weather reports to a minimum.
Now that being said, we will have to watch each event closely for minor shifts, as we
are in severe weather season..
Location
Cov.
Date
Kitchener &
Waterloo,Ontario
100%
Winnipeg,
Manitoba
100%
Indiana/Ohio
50%
13-14,
19-20,
28-30
Harrisonburg,
Virginia
50%
14-16,
19-20,
28-30
Kansas
50%
12-13,
17-19,
27-29
Flooding
Tornado
Wind
Damage
Hail
Damage
Low Medium High
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Snow
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Ice
Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Indiana and Ohio will be in the middle of much severe weather this Spring. Kansas is
on the western edge for now, but this will likely change for May and June.
Location
Cov.
Date
Kitchener &
Waterloo,Ontario
100%
Some
Severe
Late
Indiana/Ohio
100%
See
Graphs
Harrisonburg,
Virginia
30%
Severe in
May
Kansas
80%
See
Graphs
Flooding
Tornado
Wind
Damage
Hail
Damage
Snow
Ice
Winnipeg,
Manitoba
Low Medium High
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Severe Weather Outbreak Forecast
120 Day Forecast
Key Locations To Be Impacted
Forecast Made by Weather 2020, LLC
Severe Weather Is
Expected In Key
Locations Between
May 3rd & 12th
Confidence is
High!
The part of the weather pattern that produced the November 16th-17th,
2013 severe weather outbreak will cycle back through, according to
Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC), between May 3rd -12th.
Confidence is much higher that severe a severe weather outbreak will
occur within the forecast hot spots for this season in this May version of
the pattern.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has gone deep into negative territory in three of the past four years. But, not in
2013-2014. So, how did it get so cold. We believe it is because of the LRC. The weather pattern that is
cycling has prevented the AO from dipping deep into the negative, but the LRC has been strongly defined
by a major eastern Canada trough. The location of this long term long-wave trough has prevented blocking
from developing at high latitudes. This did not allow the AO to go deeply negative.
The AO and NAO, and other teleconnections show a cycling pattern as well. The same pattern continues to
produce the same results. A new cycle will evolve next fall, but for now we can use our knowledge of the
LRC combined with influence from each of these teleconnections to make accurate weather forecasts.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
The North Atlantic Oscillation briefly dipped into negative territory last week, but it is on it’s way back up.
Overall this index has been near neutral all winter into the early spring. There has been no apparent effect
from the NAO on the LRC. In fact, we believe it is the LRC that is actually influencing the NAO and
preventing it from becoming a factor. This is really just an index that shows what is happening at the
moment. But, there is likely a cycle in these teleconnections and identifying this cycle combined with our
knowledge of the LRC will allow us to make intelligent weather forecast decisions.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.7
There is increasing evidence that El Niño will be developing during the winter of
2014-2015. An El Niño watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center and this
is what we have been forecasting for six months now. The index did dip lower into
La Niña territory down to -.7°C. But, the warming has started in recent weeks. We
will keep monitoring this with an update next month.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
El Niño Watch: Warming water temperatures!
Notice the temperature rise during the past two
months. After a minimum in late January the
equatorial Pacific waters have been warming.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
LRC El Niño & La Niña 1-2 year Forecast
LRC Forecast Index
Neutral
ENSO Forecast
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
W 2012-13
Sp 2013
Su 2013
Fa 2013
W 2013-14
Sp 2014
Su 2014
W 2014-15
An El Niño Watch Is Now In Effect For Next Winter!
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Climate Prediction Center Is Now
Agreeing With Our Forecast. An El Niño
Is Possible By Next Winter
We are forecasting near neutral ENSO conditions through the end of this year. Weather
2020’s confidence is high that an El Niño will develop within the next 14 months, more likely
around the end of the fall of 2014.
El Niño is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters. When there is an El Niño the
trade winds near the equator shift and the global circulation changes. Influences are likely
felt around the world, but we strongly believe that El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions are
only an influence on the weather pattern that will be setting up according to the LRC each
year.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
One-Two Year Forecast, What would an El Niño mean?
Location
Summary & Forecast
Kitchener/Waterloo,
Ontario
Neutral conditions will continue through this winter.
There is an increasing chance of El Niño developing in
the winter of 2014-15. We will update this as
confidence grows, and explain what it will mean for
each region.
Winnipeg, Manitoba
El Niño would force a farther south storm track leaving
a milder winter across much of Canada. We are
currently forecasting near neutral ENSO conditions for
this winter
Northern Indiana
(Elkhart County)
In an El Niño year there is a 62.5% chance of above
average temperatures across northern Indiana
Harrisonburg, Virginia
A weak El Niño is linked to more snowfall, while a
strong El Niño is linked to warmer and less snow
Kansas
El Niño would imply a better chance of stronger
impacting storm systems.
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle
Right now we would like your teams to prepare for a potential outbreak of severe weather close to the 5th
to 8th of May. We will be looking more closely into these potential set-ups on the weekly reports. Between
now and early May there are a few storm systems we are monitoring closely for. If we see any hint at one
of them showing up on the computer models, and it fits the LRC we will provide as much warning as
possible. Remember we are forecasting weather beyond 7 days which other sources are not able to do
with any level of accuracy.
For now, we continue to cycle through this somewhat cool pattern. Spring is going to be winning more of
these battles between the cold and warm air masses and it will result in some violent weather.
Gary Lezak
CEO Weather 2020, LLC
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Lezak’s Recurring Cycle