Daily Market Analysis 12032015

Transcription

Quiet Light Securities, LLC Mail - Market Analysis
12/5/15, 11:51 AM
Matt Nygaard <[email protected]>
Market Analysis
Sun, Nov 8, 2015 at 5:46 PM
To: Brian Mattes <[email protected]>, George Konhilas <[email protected]>, Ian Jansing
<[email protected]>, Jacob Karlin <[email protected]>, Jason Lazarus <[email protected]>, Jeff Wotton
<[email protected]>, John Halston <[email protected]>, Scott Hawley <[email protected]>, Scott
Kaplan <[email protected]>, Sean Murphy <[email protected]>, Shawn Cooper <[email protected]>,
Tim Fitzgibbon <[email protected]>
Futures had a $4.75 range overnight with a low of 2091.75 at 6pm and a high of 2096.75 at 1am. The employment
number at 7:30am caused some wide gyrations in the futures with a session high of 2099 at 7:30 am, and a quick
break to 2982 with the strong report. There was a bounce to 2089, then back to 2082.75 before a move to 2096 for
the 8:30am opening. Futures made a session low of 2077.50 at 9am and then rallied to 2091.50 by 9:45am. There
were a couple other $8-10 moves without making a new low and by the 11:45am 2080.50 print, futures began making
higher lows into the close to settle at 2093.50.
Futures closed within $1.50 of price in the past three trading days with Friday having the most volatile action. There
have also been lower highs and lower lows the past three days.
On the weekly chart, SPX finished just above the long tern channel support from the 2011 low. SPX has also
completed it's sixth straight positive week and is clearly bumping up against overhead resistance.
On a daily chart, futures are comfortably within the 2052-2119 macro range. RSI has pulled back slightly from the
overbought 70 level, but note how the MACD difference over the signal line has been trending lower for the past
several weeks which indicates slowing momentum. We'll be watching for MACD to break below the signal line to
complete the shift in the momentum, and many use that indicator as a sell signal. Friday's volume was also the
highest of the week. As I mentioned last week, 2094.75 was the 161.8% Fibonacci target using the 9/17 high and the
9/29 double bottom low, so it's interesting that futures have had three straight closes near that price level. Resistance
above is 2100, 2110.25, and contract highs of 2018.75. Below is minor support at 2076 then 2066, and 2052 with the
200 day MA of 2047.60 below.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=150e97e935cb570c&siml=150e97e935cb570c
Page 1 of 4
12/5/15, 11:51 AM
Using the four hour chart, we can see that futures have drifted below the steep support trend line and they are now
testing the top of the ascending wedge resistance that was breached on 10/22. If that gives way, then the bottom of
the 2052-2119 macro range could be tested pretty quickly. Both RSI and MACD have been trending lower.
Page 2 of 4
12/5/15, 11:51 AM
VIX finished the week 2 points under it's 200 day MA. RSI been flatlined at the low 40 level but note the steady trend
in the MACD difference from it's trend line. We will need to see trade above 16.33 to expect a real change in the
sentiment.
To update the Russell 2000 chart, RTY, closed above it's 100 day MA and the 9/17 high, and RSI and MACD have
also been trending higher. This is the last US index to reach this plateau, so we'll watch to see if this level can hold.
Page 3 of 4
12/5/15, 11:51 AM
Page 4 of 4
12/5/15, 12:19 PM
Market Analysis
Wed, Nov 11, 2015 at 6:55 PM
Futures had a quiet overnight session with the Veteran's Day holiday. There was a higher high, higher low
progression through the evening and printed the session high of 2087.25 at 7am. Futures pulled back to the 2083
resistance point for the 8:30am opening and then they began a steady decline to 2069.50 at 9:45am. From there,
futures rallied to test 2083 again with a 2082.50 print at 11:30am, and then futures drifted lower the remainder of the
session and made a new low of 2068 at 3pm and settled at 2069.50.
Futures continue to wrestle with the weekly SPX trend line from the 2011 lows. We should expect continued price
volatility as long-term participants enter the market with a move higher or lower from this trend line.
On a daily SPX chart, we can see the 200 day MA is just $11 below the closing price. We should expect support at
this level and sustained trade below 2064 in SPX may bring some long-term profit-taking from the 8/24 bounce and
also confirmation of trade below the weekly trend support.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=150f9305a99fb887&siml=150f9305a99fb887
Page 1 of 5
12/5/15, 12:19 PM
On the daily chart, futures have clearly moved below the ascending wedge support with RSI trending lower and MACD
crossing below it's signal line. Volume was low with the holiday. Support below is 2066 with the the 200d MA of 2061
close by. The bottom of the 2052-2119 macro range the next major support. Additional minor support below is 2041
and 2029. Resistance above is 2083, 2100 and 2110.25.
Page 2 of 5
12/5/15, 12:19 PM
On the four hour chart, there is a head and shoulders pattern setting up with sustained trade below the 2066 support.
If this pattern is activated, then the measuring objective using 2066 and 2110.25 would be 2021.75; this level
coincides with the last consolidation area in mid-October. If futures breach the 10/27 low of 2052.25, then there is a
chance of a quick move to the 2021.75 level. This is just one of many scenarios to be prepared for in the next few
sessions. If 2066 holds and especially if futures retake highs over 2083, then the effects of this pattern are
diminished.
Page 3 of 5
12/5/15, 12:19 PM
VIX Closed at 16.06 and under the 16.30 200d MA. RSI has been creeping higher and is just under 50 and MACD
has been making a steady progression above it's signal line. We'll look for resistance at 16.30 and the 17 level which
has been a ceiling a couple times in the past week.
Page 4 of 5
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
Market Analysis
Sun, Nov 15, 2015 at 11:05 AM
Tim Fitzgibbon <[email protected]>, Tarkeshwar Singh <[email protected]>
Below is the daily tick chart from Friday's session. Futures had a quiet start trading around the 2041 support and
within 2039 and the session high of 2045.75 until 5am. Futures made a new low of 2033.50 at 5:30am and then
traded between 2033.50 and 2040 through the 8:30am open. At 9am, futures broke to new lows of 2022.75, and after
a bounce to 2029, made a new low of 2021.25 at 10am. From there, futures made one last attempt at the 2041
resistance level with a 2036.75 print at 11:20am, and then it was a steady decline through the rest of the session with
a 2018.32 3pm fixing price and a close at 2018.50. After 3:30pm, news of terrorism in Paris brought futures to a low
of 2011.25 and then a close at 2013 at 4pm.
On the weekly SPX chart, there are two long term channels, one from the 2009 low and 2010 high in green and the
red channel from the 2011 low and 2012 high. We can see that the flatter green channel contained price action until
2013 when the steep red channel defined the intensified rally. The August and September selloffs brought price back
into the longer channel, and the recent six week rally from the September double bottom low broke through to the
upside. Once futures stalled out last week at 2110.25 and the 2052-2119 macro range gave way, then futures moved
back into the longer channel very quickly. As I mentioned last week, the longer timeframe market participant entering
or exiting at these macro levels will cause increased price volatility, and we should expect that scenario to continue.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1510c1b613beabf3&siml=1510c1b613beabf3
Page 1 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
In the past two days, SPX has taken out the 200 day and 100 day MAs. The 50 day MA is $16 lower at 2007.68.
For then next session we should see resistance back at 2041, 2052 and 2065. Note than futures closed at 2018.50
which is a tick from the September 19th Fed Announcement high that proceeded the double bottom test. The closing
Page 2 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
price was also near to the 2019.75 head and shoulder price target that was triggered below 2065 on Thursday.
Support below is minor at 2001 then 1987 and 1954 below. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1861 low on
9/29 and the 2110.25 high on 11/3 would be 1956.25, so that will add to the significance of the 1954 support. Below
2000, futures will be entering a very high volatility zone and support/resistance levels are much further apart
until futures find some balance. Trade below 1954 will bring a test of the August lows into play.
Also on the daily ES chart, futures broke through the downward sloping trend line from the July highs. This will now
offer resistance on a bounce in futures as will the trend line from the 11/3 rally high. RSI continues to fall below 50 but
is not oversold, and MACD continues it's steady decline below it's signal line. Volume on Friday was the highest since
10/22.
Page 3 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
On the four hour chart, futures reached the 2019.75 target from the head and shoulder formation which is banded in
green. RSI is 17.45 and is in oversold territory and MACD at -14.83 is very stretched below it's signal line. For
reference, RSI is below the level of 28 when futures hit the double bottom 1981 low on 9/29 and MACD was -16.60 on
that date. However, both of these levels could stay suppressed with continued selling momentum.
Page 4 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
VIX closed at 20.08 which is the first close over 20 since 10/02. VIX has cleared all of it's MAs and RSI is trending
higher at 60.88 and MACD continues is steady rise over it's signal line. The high of VIX on 9/29 was 28.33, and that
should be major resistance.
Page 5 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
In looking at the other US indices, NDX filled it's gap from the massive opening print on 10/23. Technically, this level
should provide support in normal circumstances. RSI is declining but not oversold, and MACD is continuing it's
decline. The MAs are bunched together about 60 handles lower. NDX remains the last of the four main US induces
above it's 200, 100 and 50 day MAs.
Page 6 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
Like SPX, the Dow Jones Industrials broke through the 200d MA on Thursday, but INDU managed to close above the
100d MA on Friday.
Page 7 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
The Russell 2000, which lagged behind on the six week rally and struggled to clear it's 100d MA became the first to
close below all three MAs. RSI and MACD are at similar levels as SPX, NDX, and INDU.
Page 8 of 9
12/5/15, 11:57 AM
Page 9 of 9
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
Market Analysis
Sat, Nov 21, 2015 at 11:45 AM
Futures traded near the 2079 pivot until 1am when there was a quick move to 2085.75 and pullback to unchanged. At
7am, futures made new session highs and then rallied for the 8:30am SPX cash print . The session high of 2094.50
occurred at 9:15am and then it was an orderly progression lower over the next several hours. There was an afternoon
low of 2081.75 at 2pm and then futures rallied into the close with a 2088.75 settlement price.
SPX is at the bottom of the steeper red channel from the 2011 low and cleared the top of the shallower, longer-term
green channel from the 2009 low. With the holiday week and reduced liquidity, the market reaction to news will be
amplified. We'll be watching for the market to break through overhead resistance to new highs, or if last week's rally
was a one off event. With the market near macro trend lines, we could see continued price volatility as long-term
investors impact the market. For Sunday night with the market closing near the 2087.50 support/resistance level,
resistance above is 2098, 2110.25, and 2118.75. Support below is 2065, 2052, and 2041.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1512b26406e0b79f&siml=1512b26406e0b79f
Page 1 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
Several analysts including Ryan Detrick, CMT have pointed out the overhead resistance on a technical basis. Using a
161.8% Fibonacci projection from the 10/12/07 highs and 3/6/09 lows, you can see that the highs of 2015 have been
pressing against this target level.
Using the Fibonacci 161.8% projection with the SPX highs of 7/20 and the 8/24 low, the target would be 2299 on a
rally through the 2134.74 all time high. If the pullback from the recent 2110.25 high to Sunday's 1998.50 low was a bull
flag in the rally from the 9/28 low, then the projected target would be 2222. This are just two of many scenarios that
could unfold, and they may be mentioned as price targets if we approach the highs. The point is that there could be
room for a significant rally above all time highs. Also note that I have a knack for pointing out macro targets right
Page 2 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
before the market moves the opposite way.
On a daily chart, ES rallied back into the 2052-2119 macro range, blew through the 100d and 200d MAs, and closed
near the 2087.50 high of the from last Thursday's right shoulder high. RSI is 59 and climbing, MACD is closing the
distance below the signal line and a move back above will trigger buys for some trading systems. Friday's volume was
below average. Note how the momentum of Monday's bullish engulfing candle carried out over for the rest of the
week.
Page 3 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
On the four hour ES chart, futures bumped up against 70 in RSI again and the MACD distance over the signal line has
been steadily diminishing. Futures closed right on the bottom of the channel for the week, so we'll watch for this to
carry though on Sunday night/Monday.
Page 4 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
With last week's ES rally and the upcoming holiday week, VIX was hammered with the 15.47 close down nearly 25%
on the week. After closing above all MAs on Friday, yesterday's close was 0.81 under the 200d MA. RSI was 45.14
and falling with MACD steadily moving back towards its signal line. We'll want to see sustained trade over 20.59 for
the chance of upside momentum in VIX.
Page 5 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
Now for a quick summary of the other US indices:
NDX exploded this week off the support of the gap window and finished right at the 7/21 high. As the strongest US
index in the past rallies, we'll watch to see if NDX can rally above the 7/21 resistance an attempt to make new highs.
Page 6 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
The Russell 2000 came close to testing the 100d MA which gave it difficulty in the prior week. RSI is ticking up at 53
and MACD is progressing towards it's signal line. A move over the 100d MA and the 1200 highs of the prior week will
put RTY on path to tackle the 200d MA.
Page 7 of 8
12/5/15, 12:02 PM
Page 8 of 8
12/5/15, 12:08 PM
Market Analysis
Sun, Nov 29, 2015 at 6:21 PM
On a weekly chart, SPX is in the space between the long-term channel from the 2009 low and the steeper channel
from the 2011 low. Historically, December has been one of the best performing months, and if SPX moves to new
highs or lows, the targets are substantial as I'll point out in the following charts.
On a daily chart, we've had six straight days of small candle open/close trading. This can be expected over the
holiday and thankfully, diminished terrorist activity. This will not continue over time. Either, there will be a successful
rally through the 2110.25 highs and 2118.75 contract highs or the rally loses steam/bears make a run/negative global
event and we will have a substantial move either higher or lower.
For the case of the bulls: The target from the 11/03 high and 11/16 pullback using a 161% Fibonacci projection is
2291. RSI is positive at 58.47 and MACD is flat but at positive 13.79. With any hiccup on the global scene, central
backs are at the ready to provide stimulus. If futures can make a new high over 2110.25 before a new 1998.50 low,
then new all time highs are definitely in the cards and performance chasing may provide fuel for a decent move higher.
For the case of the bears: A new high over 2110.25 has not been made. There are more new 52 lows than 52 week
highs made on the rally according to numerous sources. VIX has drifted back to mid-October lows and if a lower high,
lower low, pattern develops, there is a lot of room on a break below 2052, 2025, and especially 1998.50 to test the
August and September lows.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=15155c41609ae6dc&siml=15155c41609ae6dc
Page 1 of 5
12/5/15, 12:08 PM
On a four hour chart, we can see the stagnant, complacent activity of a holiday week without a major event. As
mentioned earlier, this will change, and there are cases to be made for significant price volatility from this level. Both
RSI and MACD are flat.
Page 2 of 5
12/5/15, 12:08 PM
VIX has been drifting back into the mid-OCtober range with RSI and MACD flat to lower. We can expect a move
higher or lower in ES to have an impact on VIX, but trade over the 2067 resistance will be needed for a significant
move to the upside.
In other US indices, NDX has also drifted sideways and is still above the gap window, but has not made ground over
the 7/20 highs. A move above 4700 or below 4600 would be significant.
Page 3 of 5
12/5/15, 12:08 PM
The Russell 2000 cleared the 100d MA and is right at the rally highs from the August and September lows. This is the
third attempt at breaking though to new highs, and this pattern is a classic catapult in a point and figure chart. This is
a situation to watch with highs over the 200d MA putting all of the US idicies in gear. A failure at this point would be
very significant.
Page 4 of 5
12/5/15, 12:08 PM
Page 5 of 5
12/5/15, 12:25 PM
Market Analysis
Mon, Nov 30, 2015 at 5:36 PM
After a pretty quiet evening, the session high of 2095 traded just before 7 am and futures were trading near
unchanged 2090 at the 8:30 am open. Futures never traded higher than 2088 the remainder of the day. The session
low of 2078.50 traded at 2:40 pm and there was a lot of trade above and below the 2080 strike for the 2079.81 3 pm
settle. Futures closed at 2082.50 at 3:15. Today's trade produced a lower high and lower low than Friday. Tonight,
we'll look for resistance at 2094.50, 2110.25 and then 2118.75. Support below is 2074.50, 2065, and 2052.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1515ac0c4bb09f7c&siml=1515ac0c4bb09f7c
Page 1 of 5
12/5/15, 12:25 PM
On the daily ES chart, there isn't a lot to add to last night's commentary. Futures continue to trade in the 2074.502094.50 range, and a move outside that range could have some momentum. With Draghi/ECB on Thursday morning
and employment numbers on Friday, there are several potential catalysts to get futures out of the range. RSI and
MACD did not change much today and volume returned back to average levels.
Page 2 of 5
12/5/15, 12:25 PM
On the four hour chart, I've highlighted the 2074.50-2094.50 range in green. There have been a couple false
breakouts, but the range has held since 11/19. A rally above will put the recent 2110.25 highs to the test, and a break
below may take a look at the bottom of the 2052-2119 macro range. RSI and MACD are neutral.
Page 3 of 5
12/5/15, 12:25 PM
VIX climbed back to just under the 200d MA. The resistance above is at the 100 and 50d MAs and the 20.67 recent
highs. RSI and MACD are also neutral.
Page 4 of 5
12/5/15, 12:25 PM
Page 5 of 5
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
Market Analysis
Tue, Dec 1, 2015 at 5:09 PM
Futures opened higher from the 3:30 pm restart and reached 2092.75 at 8 pm. After trading sideways for several
hours, there was a slow decline to the session low of 2083.50 at 4:30 am and then traded between 2087 and 2090
until the 8:30 am open. On the bell, futures rallied to 2097.25 and then broke to 2084.50 in the first 40 minutes. After
bumping up against the 2094.50 resistance a few times, futures finally broke through at 1:45 pm and made a session
high of 2101.50 just before 3 pm. Futures settled at 2100.
Futures posted the highest close since 11/05 and closed over the 2074.50-2094.50 range. Resistance above is the
2110.25 high from 11/30 and then the 2118.75 contract high from 5/19. Support below is 2094.50, minor 2083.50,
then 2074.50 and 2065 below.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1515fceca6142b05&siml=1515fceca6142b05
Page 1 of 6
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
On a daily chart, futures are grinding higher in the middle of the multi-month channel, RSI and MACD are both up
slightly and positive and volume was average. We'll look for acceptance above the 2094.50 resistance and a test of
the highs or another failed breakout and trade back into the 2074.50-2094.50 range.
Page 2 of 6
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
On the four hour chart, the 2074.50/2094.50 range is highlighted in green with the 2110.25 resistance and 2065
support in red. Both RSI and MACD ticked up slightly with the close above resistance.
Page 3 of 6
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
VIX posted it's lowest close of 14.67 since 11/6, and ES futures posted the highest close since 11/5. The lowest close
in VIX since the 8/24 selloff was 14.15 on 11/2. Both RSI and MACD ticked slightly lower.
Page 4 of 6
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
On another note, the Russell 2000 closed above the 9/17 and 11/06 highs with MACD over the signal line. We'll
watch for acceptance above this resistance and an attempt at the 200d MA which is only 10 handles higher.
Page 5 of 6
12/5/15, 12:27 PM
Page 6 of 6
12/5/15, 12:29 PM
Market Analysis
Wed, Dec 2, 2015 at 6:14 PM
Futures had a quiet start to the session trading within a couple handles of the 2100 pivot until 12:30 am. Futures had
a brief spike higher and printed the session high of 2105 at 2:20 am, and then drifted back to unchanged by 6:30 am.
Futures traded around 2100 until 10 am when futures broke to the 2094.50 support level. Trade continued near that
level until 12:30 pm when support gave way and there was a steep sell off through the 2074.50/2094.50 range and
printed 2075.50 at 2 pm. After a bounce to 2083.50, there was another sharp retest of support with a 2075 print at
2:45 pm and a very quick bounce into the close to settle 2082.50. We saw a clear double bottom test of the 2074.50
support at the end of the day, and if that cracks, 2065 and 2052 are support below with a lot of room underneath.
Resistance above is 2094.50, 2105, then 2110.25. With the ECB rate announcement and Draghi press conference
tomorrow morning, nearly every level is within reach.
On the daily chart, we can see that futures made a new high and a new low for the past 5 trading sessions and posted
the highest volume of the past 13 trading sessions. Today's candle was close to a bearish engulfing candle with a
open 50 cents under and close below yesterday's open/close. With a 30 handle move off the high to a test of the
bottom of the 2074.50/2094.50 range as an example, we could see some extreme price volatility over the next two
trading sessions. RSI and MACD were little changed from yesterday.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1516531138e6116c&siml=1516531138e6116c
Page 1 of 4
12/5/15, 12:29 PM
On the four hour chart, you can see the futures fell short of the 2110.25 upper resistance and then broke through the
2094.50 support and tumbled through the 2074.50/2094.50 range. Trade through the 2065/2110.25 outer range
tomorrow could have some real momentum behind the move. RSI and MACD moved lower on today's selloff.
Page 2 of 4
12/5/15, 12:29 PM
VIX bounced back above the 200d MA and then settled at 15.91. To have a real chance for elevated VIX, it will need
to clear 20.67 resistance from 11/13. RSI and MACD are still flat lined.
Page 3 of 4
12/5/15, 12:29 PM
Page 4 of 4
12/5/15, 12:32 PM
Market Analysis
Thu, Dec 3, 2015 at 5:59 PM
Futures traded around the 2082.50 pivot until 1:30 am when futures rallied to 2090 and then drifted higher to the
2095.25 session high at 4:20 am. On the ECB rate announcement at 6:45 am, the price volatility kicked up a notch
and traded several times between 2093.75 and 2083.75. Once Draghi stated his 7:30 am press conference, futures
spiked to 2091 and sold off quickly to 2072 in 10 minutes. There was one last attempt higher at 8;15 with a 2087.50
print, and then it was lower high/lower low for the rest of the session. Right after the 8:30 am open, futures tested the
lows and then made a 2066.25 low at 9;15 am. After a mild bounce, the 2065 support gave way at 11 am and futures
went to test the major 2052 support level. Futures paused for only 30 minutes near 2052 and a new 2040 low printed
at 1:30 am. After a bounce to 2049, futures printed 2040.50 at 2:30 pm, and once the lows held, there was a rally
back to the 2052 for the close with a 2051.50 settlement. Today, the top of the 2074.50/2094.50 range was tested and
it held. By the end of the day three support levels were breached at 2074.50, 2065, and 2052. There was a double
bottom near 2040, so that will be an important level in the next session. Below 2040, there is 2004 and 2083. . On
the upside, there will be resistance at 2065, 2074.50 and then 2094.50. With the employment numbers tomorrow
morning, we should see continued extreme price volatility, and nearly every level mentioned above could be tested.
There are a few things to point out on the daily charts. In SPX, price traded back through the 200d MA and closed
$15 over the 50d and 100d MAs.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=1516a49449c47fd7&siml=1516a49449c47fd7
Page 1 of 5
12/5/15, 12:32 PM
Futures are on the bottom of the channel from the 9/29 and 11/16 lows, and a break through this level would be
significant since futures would also exit the 2052/2119 macro range.
The 2040, 2004, and 1983 support levels are highlighted for reference. RSI turned negative and MACD moved below
it's signal line. Volume posted the highest level in two months.
Page 2 of 5
12/5/15, 12:32 PM
On the four hour chart, we can see the increased price volatility once the upside rally through the 2074.50/2094.50
range failed. The bottom and top of the range was tested and the support broke today. With the 20 handle range, the
downside price target was 2054.50 which was easily met in one session. There will be resistance at 2074.50 if futures
attempt to re-enter the range. RSI was close to oversold, but it can remain oversold with increased selling
momentum. MACD is back below the signal line.
VIX closed above the 200d, 100d, and 50d, MAs, but finished 18.11 and 1.24 under it's high price. A close above the
20.67 resistance level would be significant. Both RSI and MACD turned slightly positive.
Page 3 of 5
12/5/15, 12:32 PM
In the other US indexes, The Russell 2000 could not maintain price above the 1200 resistance level and fell back
below the 100d MA.
NDX closed right on the top of the 10/23 gap window. When this level didn't hold on 11/13, the entire 85 handle gap
Page 4 of 5
12/5/15, 12:32 PM
was filled that day. It will be an important support area to watch tomorrow.
Page 5 of 5
Quiet Light Securities, LLC Mail - (no subject)
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
(no subject)
Sat, Dec 5, 2015 at 10:03 AM
The Thursday night trading session had a very small range in anticipation of the jobs report in the morning. There was
a rally to 2062.75 at 2:15 am and a drift lower to 2054.50 before the report. At 7:30 am, futures spiked to 2062 and
then had a quick pullback below the 2052 support to make a session low of 2046.75 at 8:08 am. Once futures rallied
back over 2052 without a real test of Thursday's 2040 low, futures began a strong rally that nearly retraced all of
Thursday's path. The 2065 and 2074.50 resistance levels gave the futures some pause, but it was a higher
high/higher low progression for the rest of the session. At 10 am, futures rallied to 2078 and back into the
2074.50/2094.50 range of the past week, and when a dip below 2074.50 failed, the rally continued to test the top of
the range with a 2093 session high print at 2 pm. After a minor pull back to 2086.50, futures settled at 2088.50.
On the weekly chart, SPX formed a cross doji pattern for the second week in a row with a gain of only 0.74 for the
week. The last two weeks show the continuing battle between the bulls and bears with this week's price action
intensified with the ECB and jobs report.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=970a213d2a&view=pt&search=sent&msg=15172e28910259e2&siml=15172e28910259e2
Page 1 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
On the long-term weekly chart, SPX closed right the on the top of the long term channel from the 2009 low and 2010
high (green) and on the bottom of the steeper channel from the 2011 low and 2013 high (red). The market is at the
pivot of a move higher back into the steeper channel which would lead to a test of all time highs, and a pull back into
the longer ten channel which may bring a test of the August and September lows into play. RSI has rallied back
above the trend resistance line and MACD is above it's signal line but below it's trend resistance line. We'll watch for
a sustained move into either channel in the next few weeks. Another point of note, if SPX does make new highs, it will
most likely be with divergent RSI and MACD with their levels lower than when the previous high was made.
After a break below the 200d MA on Thursday, and a test of the upward sloping 50d MA, the rally on Friday moved
Page 2 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
SPX comfortably above all MAs.
On the ES daily chart, futures had an inside day with the high and low within Thursday's high/low. There was a gap
opening higher than Thursday's close and a long-bodied white candle that closed above Thursday's close. Trend line
support from the 9/29 and 11/16 lows held on Thursday and Friday, and that support line become more significant with
those successful tests. RSI ticked back above 50 on the rally and MACD is still positive but below it's signal line. The
volume on Friday's rally was lower than Thursday's sell off.
Page 3 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
On the four hour chart, the 2074.50/2094.50 range is in green and the 2065/2110.25 range is in red. The day closed
with a near doji star pattern showing some exhaustion from the rally. A gap lower on Sunday with a long black candle
in the first four hours would confirm the bearish pattern.
There was a bullish hammer pattern from the strong bounce off of the 2040 low on Thursday, and when that low held
on Friday, the rally back into the range ensued. On Sunday night, resistance is at 2094.50, 2105, 2110.25 and
2118.75. Support below is 2074.50, 2065, 2052 and 2040. RSI bounced from the oversold 30 level and MACD ticked
above it's signal line.
Page 4 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
VIX was hammered with the rally and the discounting of vol the the weekend and closed back below all of the MAs. At
14.81, VIX finished just 0.15 over the low price for the week. RSI turned down below 50 and MACD was flatlined.
In the other US Indexes, The Russell 2000 didn't rally back as much as SPX or NDX with only gaining back 50% of
Page 5 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
Thursday's decline. We'll watch for a successful move back over the 1200 resistance and then the test of the 200d
MA as the only major index not over that level.
NDX had a similar gap opening as SPX but it closed above Thursday's high, and is now 16 handles from taking out
the recent highs. The top of the 10/23 gap window held support.
Page 6 of 7
12/5/15, 12:10 PM
Page 7 of 7

Daily Market Analysis 12032015

Transcription

Similar documents

FS 1000 Owners Manual

ordering instructions mail order

has royalty free clip art images to use for business cards or brochures.

We`ll help you get rid of junk mail! Please place unwanted catalogs

Parent Access to the - Collier County Public Schools

Ticket Order Form8 New designv2

Setting Up Mail and Calendar

Setting Up Mail and Calendar

Cox Email Solutions

Click-N-Ship - KAU-CE3213