2015 quarter one - Beverly

2015 QUARTER ONE
MARKET
REPORT
REAL ESTATE INFORMATION FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
BEVERLY-HANKS & ASSOCIATES
The Choice is Black & White
beverly-hanks.com
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
BEVERLY-HANKS & ASSOCIATES
MARKET REPORT
2015 QUARTER ONE
“Reduced supply is going to make it harder for home buyers
to purchase homes in the most competitive price ranges.”
- Neal Hanks Jr., President
Spring is here—just take a look at the signs all around you.
No, I’m not talking about the beautiful daffodils and dogwoods - I’m talking about
all the real estate signs popping up across the region. And while it may seem that
those signs are blooming everywhere, there’s actually 14% less of them across the
region compared to last year. Some counties are even experiencing a 25% decline
in the number of homes for sale.
In 2015, expect supply to be tighter than in years past. Many owners of existing
homes have been holding out for higher prices. Even if they list their home for
sale, the impact on supply will likely be a wash, because most sellers will become
buyers and purchase from existing supply. And while home builders are adding to
the supply, they’re doing so more slowly than pre-2006 due to rising construction
costs and a more conservative lending environment.
With the word “patient” removed from the Federal Reserve’s comments about
interest rates, I’m expecting rates to rise in 2015. While rate forecasts differ,
some type of increase is pretty certain. Anything above a nominal increase could
artificially increase the sales pace in the short term and at the same time restrict
additional supply, as some sellers may decide to stay put rather than accept a
higher interest rate. The combination of increased home buyer activity and
reduced supply could cause home values to rise quickly until the imbalance is
corrected.
INSIGHTS !
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
2-3
Executive Summary
4
Mortgage Review
5
Glossary of Terms
6 - 19
County-Specific
Market Review
20
New Home
Communities
21
Commercial
Market Review
22 - 23
Lots & Acreage
24
Sales Volume Graph
& Market Share
home buying tips
If you’re in the market for a home, be prepared for a
more competitive marketplace. Here are four tips to
help you buy a home.
•
After looking online, use open houses to confirm a home
looks just as good as when you pull up to the curb. Nothing
beats getting out on a Sunday and visiting open houses and
neighborhoods in person.
•
Use a website like beverly-hanks.com that alerts you
instantly when homes in desired communities become
available so you can be notified of new inventory quickly.
•
Go beyond the pre-approval process to become fully
approved by a local lender prior to making an offer. Not
all lenders offer this possibility, but lenders dedicated to
assisting home buyers will offer this advantage so that you
can shop in confidence. Being fully approved when you’re
ready to negotiate ensures your offer will be taken much
more seriously.
•
Use accurate online resources like the Beverly-Hanks
Research Center to develop an understanding of property
values so you can make confident decisions when an
opportunity presents itself.
2 2015 QUARTER ONE beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
THE REGION’S
vital signs
Comparison
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
95%
$192,250
2014-94%
2014-$178,500
LIST/SELL
RATIO
MEDIAN
SALES PRICE
4,598
31%
12%
2014-5,278
2014-35%
2014-18%
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED
SALES
17% increase in the supply of
homes available for sale
homes
available
for sale
-14%
20% reduction in the supply of
homes available for sale
Year-OverYear
22% increase in the
total number of
homes sold
15% increase in the total number
of homes sold YTD
6% increase in the median price
of homes sold
34% decrease in the months of
inventory available
+20% decrease in supply and the
number of homes sold
Stong Economic Indicators Continue
by Tom Tveidt of SYNEVA Economics
The Asheville metro begins the year with record-breaking
employment growth, low unemployment rates, and continuing
population growth. First quarter employment was up 4.2% from
the year before. The pace places Asheville as the second-fastest
growing metro in the state. The metro’s pace is well above
the nationwide rate of 2.4% and the statewide rate of 3.1%.
Three industries continue as the major job creators: Leisure &
Hospitality Services, Retail Trade, and Health Services. All three
broke all-time employment totals in the first quarter, and each
has experienced uninterrupted growth for over three years. The
remaining major private industry sectors are also generating
new jobs, contributing to a well-balanced economic expansion.
Asheville begins 2015 with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, tied
with Raleigh for the lowest rate among all fifteen metros in the
state. Asheville had the lowest rate in the state for nine straight
months in 2014. Recently released figures from the U.S. Census
Bureau show Asheville’s population grew by 1.1% in 2014,
adding 4,655 new residents. The gain marks the latest in over
four decades of continuous population growth. Only 20% of the
nation’s 381 metros can claim a similar record of uninterrupted
growth. Not only has the metro never lost population in any
given year, it has also maintained a remarkably stable rate
of growth, averaging 1.3% annually since 1970. 100% of the
metro’s net population growth in 2014 was due to domestic and
international immigration. Attracting new residents has been the
main source of population growth in Asheville for decades.
Asheville Metro: 55 Months of Uninterrupted Job Growth
- Monthly Year-to-Year Employment Change (%)
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
Source: NC Division of Employment Security, 2013-2014
Information throughout this report is derived from Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood, Madison, Rutherford, Polk, and Transylvania Counties’ real estate markets.
Information is reported by the NC Mountains Multiple Listing Service, which does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the
MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
beverly-hanks.com
2015 QUARTER ONE 3
6.6%
VITAL SIGNS
1.23
234.781
83.90
16,342
2014 - 5.5%
2014 - 234.722
2014 - 101.30
2014 - 17,776
2014 - 1.0
(March Y-O-Y)
(February Y-O-Y)
(March Y-O-Y)
(March Y-O-Y)
(February Y-O-Y)
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
DOW JONES
INDEX
FIRST MORTGAGE
DEFAULT INDEX
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
economy continues to improve,
interest rates hold steady
Mortgage rates are holding below the
psychologically-important 4%. According
to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of more
than one hundred banks, 30-year mortgage
rates averaged 3.68%, marking 20+ weeks
of sub-4% rates.
With conventional
mortgage rates for prime borrowers near
24-month lows, buyers can afford close
to 11% “more home” as compared to this
time last year.
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgages Since 1971
7.0
4.75
6.5
4.00
6.0
5.5
3.25
5.0
Mar-2013
Mar-2015
4.5
Since early 2015, the bond market has been 4.0
increasingly volatile. It’s a highly-uncertain
time for the global financial markets, and 3.5
the MBS trading is reflecting the current 3.0 Jan-05
sentiment at any given time. The markets’
mixed messages are creating a lot of volatility,
and that volatility is bad for borrowers. Freddie
Mac released its U.S. Economic and Housing
Market Outlook Report for April 2015, and in it
they forecast mortgage rates will “drift slightly
higher over the next six months, increasing more
$
3.77%
Mar-15
Source: freddiemac.com
around the end of the year when we anticipate
the Fed will begin raising rates. Unlike the ‘Taper
Talk’ which caused rates to spike in the spring of
2013, any volatility in mortgage rates would occur
in 2015 after the spring home buying season.”
HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL TIP
Check Your Balance Before Making A Big Purchase. When you check your account
balance on your phone before making a big purchase, more than half the time you don’t
purchase the item in question according to a study published by the Federal Reserve in 2013.
The study also discovered that people who earn more than $100,000/year are significantly
more likely to use their phone to manage their banking. (Just don’t check your accounts on
public WiFi; a surprising number of people do this, even though it’s risky.)
Source: Federal Reserve, 2013. “Consumers and mobile financial services.”
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/mortgage
4 2015 QUARTER ONE
NMLS# 42020
home
values
GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND SYMBOLS
Median Sales Price A means of tracking property
where one-half of closed sales prices are higher and one-half
lower. This statistic is less at risk of being influenced by properties on either extreme end of the pricing spectrum.
Home Supply Represents the total number of properties of
a certain type in a specific geography. Unless otherwise noted,
this number includes all types of residential
properties reported by the Multiple Listing Service.
Months of Inventory (MOI) is a
months of calculation used by the real estate industry to
inventory
describe the relationship of sales pace and the
number of properties currently on the market if
no additional homes were added to the supply. It is calculated
by determining the number of homes sold per month and
dividing by the total number of properties for sale on the last
day of the month. It is susceptible to changes in supply and/or
pace.
Distressed Sales Tracks the percentage of sales over the
last quarter that are either in foreclosure, short sale or represent real estate owned by institutions.
home
values
Cash Sales The percentage of properties being sold without any type of mortgage financing at the point of
property transfer.
Supply Pie Graph describes the
number of individual properties on the
market on a specific date in a given
geography across each price range.
Sales Pace/Days on Market tracks the average days
on market for the county by the average number of properties
selling per month. When the two metrics are considered
together, the trend lines can indicate changes in the market.
Trend lines opposite one another indicate a recovering/
accelerating market, and lines moving closer indicate a slowing
market.
Closings by Price Bracket looks at the
distribution of sales across the price brackets
during the period. It is useful for quickly
analyzing which price categories for properties
are more commonly sold in a given geography.
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
months of
inventory
For further clarification or assistance with these terms, or any other real estate
questions, contact your Beverly-Hanks Associate, or go to beverly-hanks.com.
sold
homes
Home Values ($) is used to indicate
whether a market is favoring buyers or sellers.
Generally zero to six months of inventory
indicate increasing sales prices, six to twelve
months indicate a stable market, and if the
market exceeds twelve months, prices are falling.
List/Sell Ratio (L/S) compares the final
sales price against the most recent list price
prior to the property going under contract. The
ratio can be used to compare buyers’ and sellers’
opinions of value.
days on
market
list/sell
ratio
Days on Market (DOM) is the
average amount of time it takes to market
and close on a property. This is useful
for monitoring whether a market is
accelerating or decelerating.
Sold Homes The ultimate snapshot, the
number of closed transactions in each price
bracket shows how communities are doing.
sold
homes
Market Indicators describe the
trend direction when compared with
the previous period for each metric for
which they are provided. Red indicates a
weakening trend. N/A indicates not enough data.
N/A
beverly-hanks.com
HOME
Advanced Searches
and detailed
community information.
MOBILE
On the top right corner
of your screen, click:
NEARBY PROPERTIE S
for prices and photos.
beverly-hanks.com
2015 QUARTER ONE 5
BUNCOMBE
290 $100K-$199K
295 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
186to$300K-$399K
($ rounded
nearest thousand)
136 $400K-$499K
61 $0-$99K
84 $500K-$599K
61 $0-$99K
290 $100K-$199K
Downtown Asheville, NC
290 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
-19%
Year-Over-Year
295 $200K-$299K
295 $200K-$299K
$300K-$399K
186
$300K-$399K
186
$400K-$499K
136
$400K-$499K
136
62 $600K-$699K
56 $700K-$799K
34 $800K-$899K
49 $900K-$999K
150 >$1M
84 $500K-$599K
84 $500K-$599K
62 $600K-$699K
X
= Number of units currently available in price range
62 $600K-$699K
153
56 $700K-$799K
sales pace
56 $700K-$799K
34 $800K-$899K
350
300
Homes Sold
per Month
250
Days on
Market
150
$800K-$899K
4934$900K-$999K
325
15049>$1M
$900K-$999K
200
100
50
250
150 >$1M
132
76
2005
2009
2015
closings
insights
$
9%
$0-$99,999
1%
$600,000-$699,999
37%
$100,000-$199,999
1%
$700,000-$799,999
29%
$200,000-$299,999
1%
$800,000-$899,999
11%
$300,000-$399,999
<1%
$900,000-$999,999
7%
$400,000-$499,999
<1%
>$1,000,000
3%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
Homes priced below $400K could appreciate
quickly unless supply enters the market. The
9% gain in median sales price might be a
sign of an escalating trend.
6 2015 QUARTER ONE
While supply is down by 20% county wide,
in price brackets below $400,00, it is down
by more than 30% in the brackets centered
around the county’s average sales price.
beverly-hanks.com
The 15% increase in homes sold/month is
almost entirely isolated to homes priced
between $200,000 and $300,000. Most
other brackets are pacing with 2014.
96%
$213k
(2014 - 95%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 1,738)
(2014 - 31%)
(2014 - 15%)
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
sold
homes
home
values
$
10%
28%
(2014 - 193k)
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
1,403
buncombe snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
66
2.8
$
(3.4)
274
96%
$
3.2
153
(5.6)
97%
140
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
219
4.0
$
(7.8)
83
96%
6.7
143
$
(9.6)
$500,000 - $599,999
$
(12.8)
128
(30.8)
97%
143
26.6
$
(33.0)
$
(35.0)
153
10
95%
16.8
152
$
(15.0)
95%
233
$1,000,000 +
3
49.0
97%
$700,000 - $799,999
$900,000 - $999,999
95%
282
(9.1)
$600,000 - $699,999
5
$
$
7.4
7
$800,000 - $899,999
20.4
55
97%
21
12.0
$400,000 - $499,999
7
94%
64.3
250
(46.8)
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
96%
459
2015 QUARTER ONE 7
85 $0-$99K
HAYWOOD
277 $100K-$199K
232 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
($ rounded to nearest thousand)
101 $300K-$399K
51 $400K-$499K
85 $0-$99K
21 $500K-$599K
85 $0-$99K
277 $100K-$199K
Downtown Waynesville, NC
277 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
-1%
232 $200K-$299K
19 $700K-$799K
101 $300K-$399K
2
$800K-$899K
5
$900K-$999K
232 $200K-$299K
101 $300K-$399K
Year-Over-Year
18 $600K-$699K
$400K-$499K
$400K-$499K
51 51
19 >$1M
21 $500K-$599K
21 $500K-$599K
18 $600K-$699K
= Number of units currently available in price range
X
18 $600K-$699K
153
19 $700K-$799K
sales pace
Homes Sold
per Month
250
2
200
5
150
100
Days on
Market
134
19 $700K-$799K
$800K-$899K
$800K-$899K
2
$900K-$999K
200
>$1M$900K-$999K
19 5
94
19 >$1M
55
50
0
2005
2009
2015
closings
insights
$
22%
$0-$99,999
0%
$600,000-$699,999
46%
$100,000-$199,999
<1%
$700,000-$799,999
17%
$200,000-$299,999
0%
$800,000-$899,999
9%
$300,000-$399,999
0%
$900,000-$999,999
3%
$400,000-$499,999
0%
>$1,000,000
2.4%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
Values are expected to be pushed down
in the highest brackets. Slight gains are
possible for lower-priced properties due to
those brackets approaching six months of
inventory.
8 2015 QUARTER ONE
Overall supply remains at similar levels to
2014 in Haywood County. Steady supply will
help to balance the market more quickly.
beverly-hanks.com
Overall, the sales pace is up 13%, the largest
Q1 increase since 2012. The increase and
the steady supply will help the market
achieve broader balance in the coming year.
93%
$157k
(2014 - 93%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 148.5k)
(2014 - 836)
(2014 - 34%)
(2014 - 27%)
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
LEGEND
sold
homes
home
values
months of
inventory
(2013)
$
20%
32%
830
haywood snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
36
7.1
$
(5.9)
76
91%
213
10.9
$
(16.2)
95%
249
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
28
24.9
6.5
$
(21.9)
(6.8)
15
94%
30.6
358
$
(26)
$500,000 - $599,999
$
(20.0)
N/A
22.7
95%
270
(29.4)
N/A
57.0
165
$
(90.0)
$
377
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
$900,000 - $999,999
N/A
N/A
88%
$700,000 - $799,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.8
N/A
N/A
$
94%
0
$800,000 - $899,999
N/A
5
$600,000 - $699,999
4
N/A
$400,000 - $499,999
N/A
N/A
93%
N/A
258
N/A
$1,000,000 +
N/A
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
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EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
N/A
$
N/A
N/A
2015 QUARTER ONE 9
47 $0-$99K
HENDERSON
173 $100K-$199K
247 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
($ rounded
to $300K-$399K
nearest thousand)
119
77 $400K-$499K
47 $0-$99K
53 $500K-$599K
47 $0-$99K
173 $100K-$199K
Apple Festival, Hendersonville, NC
173 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
-18%
Year-Over-Year
247 $200K-$299K
247 $200K-$299K
$300K-$399K
$300K-$399K
119 119
77 $400K-$499K
77 $400K-$499K
53 $500K-$599K
41 $600K-$699K
25 $700K-$799K
14 $800K-$899K
18 $900K-$999K
33 >$1M
53 $500K-$599K
41
= Number of units currently available in price range
X $600K-$699K
153
41 $600K-$699K
25 $700K-$799K
sales pace
200
Homes Sold
per Month
150
Days on
Market
100
25 $700K-$799K
14 $800K-$899K
181
18 $900K-$999K
$800K-$899K
14
33 >$1M
18 $900K-$999K
50
83
147
122
33 >$1M
2005
2009
2015
closings
insights
$
14%
$0-$99,999
<1%
$600,000-$699,999
40%
$100,000-$199,999
<1%
$700,000-$799,999
31%
$200,000-$299,999
<1%
$800,000-$899,999
9%
$300,000-$399,999
1%
$900,000-$999,999
4%
$400,000-$499,999
<1%
>$1,000,000
1%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
Homes values below $300K can be
expected to modestly improve as markets
shift to favor sellers. Appreciation in the
higher price brackets is unlikely until supply
moderates.
10 2015 QUARTER ONE
Supply is significantly down (an average of
-20%) in brackets under $300K; however,
over that point supply is up 17%.
beverly-hanks.com
The largest number of units sold per month
since 2007. Strong Q1 could indicate a
strong spring selling season for 2015.
$190k
96%
(2014 - 95%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 180k)
(2014 - 1,030)
(2014 - 34%)
(2014 - 15%)
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
henderson snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
sold
homes
home
values
$
14%
31%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
847
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
53
2.7
$
(5.6)
147
90%
3.5
126
$
(6.1)
97%
131
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
112
6.6
$
(10.8)
32
96%
11.2
174
$
(13.8)
$500,000 - $599,999
$
(22.3)
95%
385
123.0
$
(54.0)
N/A
N/A
280
$
(17.0)
N/A
27.0
$
N/A
255
1
86%
75.0
509
100%
$
(21.0)
N/A
$1,000,000 +
1
93%
307
97%
$700,000 - $799,999
2
94%
250
17.8
$900,000 - $999,999
1
$
97%
1
$800,000 - $899,999
42.0
13
$600,000 - $699,999
4
39.8
$400,000 - $499,999
99
N/A
N/A
N/A
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
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EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
91%
272
N/A
N/A
2015 QUARTER ONE 11
19 $0-$99K
MADISON
57 $100K-$199K
67 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
($ rounded
nearest thousand)
45to $300K-$399K
26 $400K-$499K
19 $0-$99K
11 $500K-$599K
19 $0-$99K
57 $100K-$199K
Downtown Marshall, NC
57 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
67 $200K-$299K
+17%
67 $200K-$299K
Year-Over-Year
26 $400K-$499K
45 $300K-$399K
45 $300K-$399K
26 $400K-$499K
11 $500K-$599K
13 $600K-$699K
6
$700K-$799K
7
$800K-$899K
6
$900K-$999K
6
>$1M
11 $500K-$599K
13 $600K-$699K
X
sales pace
Homes Sold
per Month
= Number of units currently available in price range
153
13 $600K-$699K
6
$700K-$799K
250
7
$800K-$899K
6 $700K-$799K
200
6
$900K-$999K
6
>$1M
150
135
7
213
$800K-$899K
6
$900K-$999K
6
>$1M
100
Days on
Market
50
0
21
11
2005
2009
2015
closings
insights
$
24%
$0-$99,999
0%
$600,000-$699,999
46%
$100,000-$199,999
0%
$700,000-$799,999
24%
$200,000-$299,999
0%
$800,000-$899,999
3%
$300,000-$399,999
0%
$900,000-$999,999
0%
$400,000-$499,999
0%
>$1,000,000
3%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
One of the only counties to experience an
increase in the months of inventory. Limited
transactions in most brackets are making it
difficult to predict the trend of home prices.
12 2015 QUARTER ONE
While the county experienced a 17%
increase in the number of homes for sale
most of the additional supply was in the
moderate price ranges ($300K-$700K)
beverly-hanks.com
The slowest pace in two years suggests
buyers are choosing to locate closer to
town centers. As prices for closer to town
increase, we’ll likely see an improved pace
in the county
$160k
96%
(2014 - 91%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 165k)
(2014 - 225)
(2014 - 46%)
(2014 - 36%)
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
madison snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
sold
homes
home
values
$
27%
33%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
263
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
8
7.1
$
(7.0)
15
93%
11.4
180
$
(9.7)
97%
247
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
8
25.1
$
(20.0)
1
135.0
239
33.0
$
N/A
(48.0)
1%
N/A
$800,000 - $899,999
N/A
N/A
$
N/A
N/A
54
$600,000 - $699,999
$
N/A
N/A
$
N/A
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$900,000 - $999,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
$700,000 - $799,999
N/A
0
N/A
N/A
93%
0
N/A
N/A
$
1
126
0
N/A
93%
$500,000 - $599,999
N/A
$400,000 - $499,999
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
$1,000,000 +
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
(18.0)
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
2015 QUARTER ONE 13
12 $0-$99K
POLK
40 $100K-$199K
46 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
($ rounded to nearest thousand)
41 $300K-$399K
21 $400K-$499K
12 $0-$99K
13 $500K-$599K
12 $0-$99K
40 $100K-$199K
Tryon, NC
40 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
-23%
Year-Over-Year
13 $600K-$699K
46 $200K-$299K
2
$700K-$799K
$300K-$399K
$300K-$399K
41 41
5
$800K-$899K
6
$900K-$999K
46 $200K-$299K
$400K-$499K
21 21
$400K-$499K
13 $500K-$599K
18 >$1M
13 $500K-$599K
= Number of units currently available in price range
X $600K-$699K
13
153
13 $600K-$699K
sales pace
2
$700K-$799K
5
$800K-$899K
250
6
5 $800K-$899K
$900K-$999K
200
18 >$1M$900K-$999K
350
300
Homes Sold
per Month
150
Days on
Market
0
$700K-$799K
206
6
156
100
50
2
18 >$1M
27
11
2005
2009
2015
closings
insights
$
22%
$0-$99,999
3%
$600,000-$699,999
44%
$100,000-$199,999
0%
$700,000-$799,999
6%
$200,000-$299,999
0%
$800,000-$899,999
9%
$300,000-$399,999
0%
$900,000-$999,999
6%
$400,000-$499,999
3%
>$1,000,000
6%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
A 3% increase in median price is on par with
historical trends for the county, but with
the Tryon Equestrian Center (TEC) looming;
predicting the extent prices will be impacted
will be difficult.
14 2015 QUARTER ONE
One of the largest decreases in supply
in the region can likely be contributed to
sellers holding properties in anticipation of
the ETC’s impact.
beverly-hanks.com
Despite the slowest reported sales pace
in three year’s, it is unlikely the market
is slowing. Transactions are occurring
outside of the MLS making intimate Market
knowledge critical
$178k
93%
(2014 - 92%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 172k)
(2014 - 282)
(2014 - 41%)
(2014 - 25%)
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
polk snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
sold
homes
home
values
$
9%
41%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
217
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
7
5.1
$
(8.3)
14
81%
8.6
152
$
(10.0)
94%
211
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
2
69.0
$
(34.0)
3
90%
41.0
465
$
(36.0)
$500,000 - $599,999
$
(51.0)
N/A
97%
151
496
(3.0)
39.0
$
95%
100%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
92%
N/A
N/A
60
$
N/A
N/A
$1,000,000 +
1
N/A
$
N/A
323
$700,000 - $799,999
$900,000 - $999,999
N/A
N/A
$
N/A
$600,000 - $699,999
(30.0)
$
31.5
1
$800,000 - $899,999
N/A
2
90%
2
19.5
$400,000 - $499,999
N/A
54.0
(30.0)
N/A
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
94%
174
2015 QUARTER ONE 15
98 $100K-$199K
RUTHERFORD
vital signs
105 $200K-$299K
2015 53
Q1$300K-$399K
to 2014 Q1
($ rounded to nearest thousand)
24 $400K-$499K
53 $0-$99K
12 $500K-$599K
53 $0-$99K
98 $100K-$199K
Rumbling Bald Resort, Lake Lure, NC
98 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
-17%
Year-Over-Year
$200K-$299K
$200K-$299K
105 105
53 $300K-$399K
$300K-$399K
53
24 $400K-$499K
10 $600K-$699K
8
$700K-$799K
6
$800K-$899K
5
$900K-$999K
24 $400K-$499K 17
>$1M
12 $500K-$599K
12 $500K-$599K
10 $600K-$699K
X
sales pace
300
250
Homes Sold
per Month
200
Days on
Market
100
156
0
8
10 $600K-$699K
$700K-$799K
6
$800K-$899K
5
$900K-$999K
8
6
$700K-$799K
$800K-$899K
183
17 >$1M
150
50
= Number of units currently available in price range
5
$900K-$999K
17 >$1M
13
2005
2009
27
2015
closings
37%
insights
$
$0-$99,999
1%
$600,000-$699,999
32%
$100,000-$199,999
0%
$700,000-$799,999
18%
$200,000-$299,999
1%
$800,000-$899,999
6%
$300,000-$399,999
0%
$900,000-$999,999
5%
$400,000-$499,999
0%
>$1,000,000
0%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
While over-supplied, recent activity is
bringing the market closer to balance. The
Tryon Equestrian Center is impacting values
for properties close to the Center that can
support horse enthusiasts.
16 2015 QUARTER ONE
The largest supply decrease in more than
five years is contributing to the market’s
balance. Most of the decrease continues to
occur in the lowest price brackets.
beverly-hanks.com
The recent Q1 sales pace suggests buyers
are returning to the market and taking
advantage of pre-boom pricing and the
fantastic mortgage rates that are reducing
the overall cost of ownership.
$146k
92%
(2014 - 91%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 95k)
(2014 - 470)
(2014 - 51%)
(2014 - 22%)
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
rutherford snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
sold
homes
home
values
$
28%
41%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
391
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
30
5.3
$
(6.4)
26
91%
11.3
119
$
(18.5)
94%
241
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
15
21.0
$
(45.0)
$400,000 - $499,999
5
N/A
94%
31.8
324
$
(65.0)
$500,000 - $599,999
4
94%
18.0
435
(108.0)
$600,000 - $699,999
2
$
95%
472
$700,000 - $799,999
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$
N/A
N/A
92%
228
$900,000 - $999,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
$
(6.0)
$
N/A
N/A
$1,000,000 +
1
N/A
N/A
88%
79
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
N/A
$
$
N/A
N/A
$800,000 - $899,999
18.0
30.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
N/A
N/A
2015 QUARTER ONE 17
32 $0-$99K
TRANSYLVANIA
132 $100K-$199K
142 $200K-$299K
vital signs
2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
($ rounded
thousand)
$300K-$399K
84to nearest
60 $400K-$499K
32 $0-$99K
30 $500K-$599K
32 $0-$99K
132 $100K-$199K
Looking Glass Falls, Pisgah National Forest
132 $100K-$199K
homes
available
for sale
142 $200K-$299K
-14%
142 $200K-$299K
Year-Over-Year
60 $400K-$499K
84 $300K-$399K
84 $300K-$399K
30 $600K-$699K
16 $700K-$799K
13 $800K-$899K
9
60 $400K-$499K
30 $500K-$599K
$900K-$999K
49 >$1M
30 $500K-$599K
30 $600K-$699K
= Number of units currently available in price range
X
153
30 $600K-$699K
16 $700K-$799K
sales pace
Homes Sold
per Month
300
13 $800K-$899K
16 $700K-$799K
250
9
200
100
50
0
$900K-$999K
13 $800K-$899K
49 >$1M
156
9
150
Days on
Market
288
$900K-$999K
49 >$1M
48
2005
2009
31
2015
closings
insights
$
16%
$0-$99,999
3%
$600,000-$699,999
36%
$100,000-$199,999
1%
$700,000-$799,999
23%
$200,000-$299,999
2%
$800,000-$899,999
11%
$300,000-$399,999
1%
$900,000-$999,999
4%
$400,000-$499,999
1%
>$1,000,000
1%
$500,000-$599,999
(Rounded to the nearest percent.)
!
The county experienced one of the largest
YOY gains of the region. The gains can
be attributed to an increase sales in the
moderate and luxury price points.
18 2015 QUARTER ONE
A 14% reduction in the number of homes
for sale is consistent with the better
performing counties of the region. All of the
price brackets appear to be well-supplied
for the Spring selling season.
beverly-hanks.com
This quarter represents the 4th consecutive
quarter of double digit percentage gains in
the number of properties sold. We expect
this to continue into the Spring.
$196k
92%
(2014 - 92%)
LIST/SELL RATIO
(2014 - 160k)
(2014 - 697)
(2014 - 52%)
(2014 - 25%)
SUPPLY
CASH SALES
DISTRESSED SALES
transylvania snapshot
by price bracket - quarter one
sold
homes
home
values
$
10%
37%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
LEGEND
months of
inventory
(2013)
597
$0 - $99,999
list/sell
ratio
days on
market
:
Trends
: Red = Weakening Trend
$100,000 - $199,999
15
6.4
$
(4.1)
34
90%
11.6
134
$
(21.3)
95%
238
N/A: Insufficient sales data for this trend
$200,000 - $299,999
$300,000 - $399,999
22
19.4
$
(33.9)
10
93%
25.2
252
$
(45.4)
$500,000 - $599,999
$
(126.0)
88%
208
30.0
$
(27.0)
N/A
N/A
765
$
(36.0)
N/A
27.0
$
N/A
545
1
94%
48.0
774
$
N/A
89%
1638
N/A
N/A
$1,000,000 +
1
95%
1637
97%
$700,000 - $799,999
1
84%
611
45.0
$900,000 - $999,999
2
$
93%
3
$800,000 - $899,999
19.5
4
$600,000 - $699,999
1
90.0
$400,000 - $499,999
147
N/A
N/A
N/A
For information on your specific neighborhood:
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/market-research-center
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
$
76%
822
N/A
N/A
2015 QUARTER ONE 19
7,755
(YTD February)
(YTD February)
203
97
2014 -6,678
NORTH CAROLINA BUILDING
PERMITS (THROUGH FEBRUARY)
2014 - 184
ASHEVILLE BUILDING PERMITS
(THROUGH NOVEMBER)
2014 - 76
NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
CLOSINGS)
*US CENSUS BUREAU
*US CENSUS BUREAU
*NC MOUNTAINS MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE
(Q1)
Community Marketing Group (CMG) is the Beverly-Hanks full-service marketing division providing proven sales, marketing, and strategic
consulting services to builders and developers. Our services are tailored to each project’s specific needs. We offer everything from design
charettes and market feasibility studies to turn-key sales and marketing teams.
sales of new homes climbed to their fastest pace in seven years
600K
500K
15
20
5
b
20
1
Fe
n
Ja
ec
20
14
14
20
D
14
ov
20
N
ct
20
13
O
14
Se
p
20
4
g
01
Au
14
l2
Ju
20
n
Ju
M
ay
20
01
4
300K
14
400K
r2
With buyers returning to the new-home market, builders
will need to ramp up production quickly, as housing
inventory remains very tight. Recently, builders have been
focused on apartment construction, as high construction
costs have reduced the number of homebuyers. Nationally,
permits in February to start construction on single-family
houses fell to their lowest annual rate in eight months,
New Homes Numbers (Annualized and seasonally adjusted)
Ap
The Commerce Department reported that new home
sales shot up 7.8% in February, to a seasonally- adjusted
annual rate of 539,000, the strongest performance since
February 2008. The report tallies the number of newlyconstructed homes with a contract, and is viewed as
an indicator of future economic momentum. The shift
may suggest that the job growth experienced prior to
March’s disappointing labor report is percolating over
to other parts of the economy and spurring new-home
sales. Economists believe the recent sales activity could
be a sign of good things to come, although they warn
the report is susceptible to as many as three revisions.
Source: US Commerce Department
while permits for apartments surged to a 10-month high.
Low re-sale inventory, with little construction underway,
is beginning to drive prices in some markets within WNC.
NEW HOME COMMUNITY - Poplar Ridge
We are pleased to re-introduce Poplar Ridge to the residents of Western North Carolina. Poplar
Ridge, originally started in 2000, is now owned and operated by WPB Poplar Ridge LLC. This debt-free
community boasts some of the best views in Western North Carolina, and has all the conveniences
associated with living in south Asheville (shopping, dining, health care, schools, airport, and more).
Residents enjoy two gated entries, a family playground/gathering spot, a scenic overlook with a
picnic area, and some of the finest architecture in the Carolinas. With approximately 265 acres, 40
homesites remaining, and three available homes under construction, Poplar Ridge is back with a
vengeance.
Visit poplarridgeasheville.com to learn more.
20 2015 QUARTER ONE beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/our-services/cmg
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
NAI Global is the single largest, most powerful global network of
owner-operated commercial real estate brokerage firms. NAI Global
member firms, leaders in their local markets, are actively managed
to work in unison and provide you with exceptional solutions to your
commercial real estate needs. Whether you need to buy, sell, lease,
finance, or manage commercial property in your town, across the U.S.
or in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and beyond, your nearby NAI Global
owner-operated member is your local point of entry into a world of
creative solutions in commercial real estate.
STEADY COMMERCIAL GROWTH
NOTABLE
TRANSACTIONS
The commercial market in the Asheville MSA continued its strong trajectory in
the first quarter of 2015. The usual market segments carried the load, as multifamily development and acquisition, medical office investment sales, and new
hotel development dominated the landscape. Asheville’s newest large-scale
retail development, the Asheville Outlets, is on-track to open this quarter, and
as part of their process, the developer purchased the contiguous property
previously owned and occupied by Belk Stores, Inc. for $6,000,000. Developers
for two grocery-anchored centers continued to fill vacant shop space at a brisk
pace. Sales across all commercial categories increased year over year, as the flow
of private equity proves that Asheville is an increasingly attractive investment.
SALES ACTIVITY
Industrial –
6 transactions for
$5,703,872
Office –
11 transactions for
$16,818,176
Retail –
23 transactions for
$25,257,963
2014
110 Bear Creek Lane
Asheville, NC
230-unit apartment complex sold for
$15.5 million.
800 Brevard Road
Asheville, NC
2015
$30.00M
$26.25M
$22.50M
$18.75M
$15.00M
Former Belk store on campus of
Asheville Outlets sold for $6 million.
Land value only - 8.86 Acres.
$11.25M
Multi-Family –
5 transactions for
$17,759,000
$7.50M
$3.75M
$0.00M
Industrial
Office
Retail
10 East Market Street
Black Mountain, NC
Multi-Family
Source: Costar.com
LEASE ACTIVITY
23 retail lease
transactions.
9 industrial lease
transactions.
Vacancy rate of 4.1%
at quarter end
Vacancy rate of 6.3% at
quarter end
(4.8% Y-O-Y).
(7.3% Y-O-Y).
15,000 square foot restaurant
building in Village of Cheshire. Sold for
$1,970,000.
20 Medical Park Drive
Asheville, NC
15 office lease
transactions.
Vacancy rate of 5.3% at
quarter end
24,000 square foot, 100% leased
medical office building. Sold for $11.6
million. Leased to Cancer Centers of
America.
(6.1% Y-O-Y).
beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com/offices/commercial
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
2015 QUARTER ONE 21
LOTS
90%
vital signs
0-3 Acres Lots
with Deed Restrictions
2014 - 84%
LIST/SELL
RATIO
Comparison 2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
3,942
2014 - $61k
2014 - 4,404
AVERAGE SALES
PRICE /PARCEL
sales trends
2015
125
2014
$110,000
155
12%
2014 - 170
SUPPLY
list price
150
2014 - 21%
TOTAL ACRES
SOLD
DISTRESSED
SALES
vs sales price ytd
78%
92%
86%
List/Sell Ratio
2013
100
Lots
$75k
2012
75
2011
List Price
$98,000
Sales Price
$86,000
50
$74,000
25
$62,000
ia
an
rd
sy
lv
fo
an
er
$50,000
Tr
Ru
th
lk
Po
ad
is
rs
M
de
on
on
d
oo
en
w
H
ay
H
Bu
nc
om
be
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
active listings
vs closed
listings
Percentage
of Closed Sales
Compared to Active Properties
Closed, 2015Q1
Active, April 1, 2015
148
3,942
Total Lots Sold by Price Range
Total Lots For Sale by Price Range
68
51
13
5
4
3
1
0
1
1
1
insights
$
$0-$49,999
$50,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$349,999
$350,000-$399,999
$400,000-$449,999
$450,000-$499,999
>$500,000
1,966
1,092
372
209
82
76
39
40
10
12
44
!
Prices remain stagnant due to oversupply.
With distressed sales making up a smaller
percentage of the lots sold and less
inventory we are optimistic the market is
moving towards historic norms.
The 11% reduction in inventory will assist
the market’s recovery as long as the market
is not flooded with additional properties for
sale. An overall oversupply is an ongoing
issue region-wide.
22 2015 QUARTER ONE beverly-hanks.com
beverly-hanks.com
A slower sales pace year-over-year may be
due to the hard winter and ongoing difficulties
with lot financing. We’re optimistic about the
sales pace improving for desirable lots close
to city centers as Spring arrives.
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
ACREAGE
89%
vital signs
Unrestricted parcels
15 acres and up
2014 - 86%
LIST/SELL
RATIO
Comparison 2015 Q1 to 2014 Q1
444
2014 - $7,802
2014 - 393
AVERAGE SALES
PRICE/ACRE
sales trends
1,412
5%
2014 - 1,280
SUPPLY
list price
5
TOTAL ACRES
SOLD
2014 - 6%
DISTRESSED
SALES
vs sales price ytd
2015
2014
4
Parcels >15 acres
$5,755
92%
78%
89%
91%
$15,000
2013
2012
3
2011
List/Sell Ratio
List Price
$12,250
Sales Price
2
$9,500
1
$6,750
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$4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
active listings Percentage
vs closed
listings
of Closed
Sales Compared to Active Properties
Active, April 1, 2015
Closed, 2015Q1
21
444
Total Parcels Sold by Price Range
1
1
3
4
2
2
0
1
3
1
3
insights
$
Total Parcels For Sale by Price Range
$0-$49,999
$50,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$349,999
$350,000-$399,999
$400,000-$449,999
$450,000-$499,999
>$500,000
1
29
38
44
29
43
29
36
19
28
148
!
Values for wholesale acreage continues to receive
downward pressure as the market for developed
lots remains challenged. High-quality legacy
parcels continue to be purchased quickly when
they become available.
beverly-hanks.com
The supply of large acreage parcels
is elevated from last year, 13%. The
increase has been evenly spread across
the price brackets.
Four out of seven counties surpassed
last year’s Q1 sales. We expect the sales
pace to remain anemic until the market for
developed lots also improves.
beverly-hanks.com
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
2015 QUARTER ONE 23
2015
QUARTER ONE
beverly-hanks
25.83%
Sales Volume:
$1.12B
Coldwell Banker King 2.90%
REMAX Mountain 2.77%
Keller Williams
Asheville
12.83%
Carolina Mtn. Sales 2.71%
Keller Williams
Hendersonville
Preferred Properties 2.48%
3.26%
Town & Mtn. Realty 2.36%
(Source: NC Mountains Multiple Listing Service. Through Dec. 31, 2014)
beverly-hanks.com
EQUAL HOUSING
OPPORTUNITY
Cover Photo: Spencer Black/Black Visual
2014 Year End
Total Market Share