91_Roman_J

Using Ground-based GPS from SuomiNet and NWP Reanalysis
for Regional Validation in Europe and North America of PWV
from IASI, AIRS, and CrIS for Detecting Extreme Weather
Events and Climate Change
Jacola Roman*a, Robert Knuteson, Steve Ackermana, William Smith, and Elisabeth Weisz University of Wisconsin-­‐Madison Space Science and Engineering Center, *Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, aCooperaGve InsGtute for Meteorological Satellite Studies Abstract The water content of the atmosphere is a key climate response to increasing temperatures in global climate model (GCM) simulations. To better understand the water vapor feedback in models, observations are
needed that provide good spatial and temporal resolution over both ocean and land areas. In addition, the IPCC 4th Assessment found that changes in extreme events, such as droughts, heat waves, and flooding, have
occurred and the frequency of such events is expected to increase. PWV is a useful parameter for forecasters in determining atmospheric stability and the probability of convection; it is critical for determining the
occurrence of extreme weather events. This paper investigates the accuracy of satellite retrieved PWV climatology for use in comparison to climate models as well as the ability to detect extreme weather events.
Validation data is from the ground based GPS network (IGS and SuomiNet) and the NWP reanalysis products. PWV retrievals from EUMETSTAT for the IASI will be compared to retrievals done by NOAA, along with
NASA AIRS, and NOAA/NASA CrIMSS. In addition, for detecting extreme weather events, UW satellite retrievals using IASI, AIRS, and CrIS radiances will be used. The UW satellite retrievals use a new dual
regression retrieval algorithm that is designed to preserve the trace-ability of the sensor radiances to international standards (SI).
Duluth, MN, USA Var, France 850 mb Wind 20100625 200 mb Divergence 20100625
200 mb Divergence 20120620
850 mb Wind 20120620
Wind (knots) at 850 mb: 20120620
Wind (knots) at 10 Meters: 15ïJunï2010
Divergence at 200 mb: 15ïJunï2010
2
50 ° N
Storm Event 1.5
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*
40 ° N
50 ° N
50 ° N
1
0.5
*
30 ° N
40 ° N
*
40 ° N
0
ï0.5
°
70
120 ° W
W
ï1
°
80 W
110 °
W
°
90 W
°
100 W
The NARR (above) showed a strong
transport of moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to Duluth during June 19th and
20th 2012 when a low pressure system
stalled over the area and strong
divergence at 200 mb occurred
ï1.5
30 ° N
10 ° W
0°
30 ° N
10 ° W
°
20 E
°
0°
10 E
°
20 E
°
10 E
ï2
The NCEP Reanalysis (above) showed a strong transport of
moisture from the Mediterranean Sea during June 15th and
16th 2010 when a meso-scale cyclone moved across the
region bringing strong divergence at 200 mb
NARR
CRIMSS
NCEP Reanalysis
PWV(mm): 2012061918
50 ° N
40
35
50 ° N
50 ° N
*
40 ° N
40
35
60
*
ERA-Interim
ERA Interim PWV France: 15ïJunï2010
NCEP/NOAA Reanalysis PWV France: 15ïJunï2010
70
30
30
50
25
25
40
30
*
40 ° N
*
20
40 ° N
20
15
15
0°N
20
10
10
°
70
120 ° W
110 ° W
30 ° N
10 ° W
0
0°
*
°
20 E
°
10 E
30 ° N
10 ° W
0°
°
10 E
NOAA IASI IR A L3
0
AIRS IR L3 A V5
NOAA IASI IR A L3
AIRS IR L3 A V5
5
5
°
80 W
°
90 W
°
100 W
10
W
*
Satellite Observa9ons NOAA IASI MW A L3
AIRS MW L3 A V5
AIRS MW L3 A V5
NOAA IASI MW A L3
*
*
WISC DR AIRS
WISC DR IASI
*
*
WISC DR IASI
WISC DR AIRS
*
*
*
Duluth PWV June 13-24 2012
Duluth PWV June 13ï24 2012
70
WISC DR AIRS
WISC DR IASI
AIRS IR L2 V5
AIRS IR L3 V5
NOAA IASI IR L2
CRIMSS Beta
GPS
NARR 3ïHourly
NCEP Reanalysis
ERAïInterim
NARR Daily
50
40
30
20
10
06/14
06/15
06/16
06/17
06/18
06/19
Time
06/20
06/21
06/22
06/23
06/24
06/25
Time
Duluth PWV PDF Difference (Second 15 Years ï First 15 Years)
0.12
0.06
PWV ï 8 PDF
Poisson Fit
•  The panels above show daily PWV (mm) for June
15h 2010.
•  CRIMSS not available for this date, but AIRS L3
V5 captures enhanced moisture over the
Mediterranean Sea.
•  The figure to the left shows the PWV (mm) on
June 5th-25th 2010 for the Var region in France.
France PWV June 05ï25 2010
40
WISC DR AIRS
WISC DR IASI
AIRS IR L3 V5
NOAA IASI IR L2
NCEP Reanalysis
ERAïInterim
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
06/13
Duluth PWV PDF and Poisson Fit Duluth PWV PDF Difference
Duluth PWV PDF and Poisson Fit
*
Var PWV June 05-25 2010
PWV (mm)
PWV (mm)
PWV (mm)
60
PWV (mm)
•  The panels above show daily PWV (mm) for June
20th 2012.
•  The CRIMSS (only one granule) shows the
enhanced moisture over the Duluth region on this
day whereas the AIRS L3 V5 is missing many
points and has relatively lower PWV.
•  The figure to the right shows the PWV (mm) on
June 13th-24th 2012 for Duluth, MN.
5
06/06
06/13
Time
06/20
Time
Var PWV PDF and Poisson Fit
France PWV PDF Difference (Last 15 Years ï First 15 Years)
0.05
PWV PDF
Poisson Fit
0.04
0.1
0.1
0.03
0.02
Probability
Probability
Extreme Event Var PWV PDF Difference
France NCEP Reanaylsis PWV PDF and Poisson Fit
0.12
0.04
Conclusions 0
*
*
0.08
0
0.06
ï0.02
ï0.04
0.04
ï0.06
0.08
0.02
0.01
0.06
0
0.04
ï0.01
0.02
ï0.02
0.02
20100615
ï0.08
20120620
0
ï10
°
20 E
0
10
20
30
40
0
ï10
50
60
ï0.1
ï10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PWV– 8 (mm)
PWV (mm)
•  The PDF of normalized NARR June daily PWV from 1979 is shown left. The red curve
represents the Poisson fit to the distribution. This event had was a 5 sigma event
•  The PDF difference of the last 10 years-first 10 years of the NARR, shown on the right
panel, indicates a shift to higher moisture values.
•  The Duluth flooding of June 2012 was predominantly caused by strong northward
transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
•  This northward moisture transport was well characterized by the NARR and best
captured by the Wisconsin Dual Regression of AIRS radiances.
•  CRIMSS (ATMS+CrIS combined MW+IR retrievals) shows promising results with PWV
values close to those seen by the ground based GPS, where as the AIRS L3 and L2 V5
had a strong dry bias and were lacking spatial resolution.
•  PDFs show strong evidence that the Duluth Flood was an extreme event in terms of
PWV (5 sigma).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
ï0.03
ï10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PWV– 9 (mm)
PWV (mm)
•  The PDF of normalized NCEP June daily PWV from 1949 is shown left. The red
curve represents the Poisson fit to the distribution. This event had was a 6 sigma
event
•  The PDF difference of the last 15 years-first 15 years of the NCEP Reanalysis,
shown on the right panel, illustrates a shift to greater moisture.
•  The Var flooding of June 2002 was predominantly caused a cyclone stalled over the
region that brought moist air from the Mediterranean Sea to Southern France.
•  This transport was well characterized by the NCEP Reanalysis and the ERA-Interim.
Near the coast, the NOAA IASI MW L2 product showed the enhanced moisture,
whereas the IR product was significantly drier.
•  The AIRS L3 V5 product best verify the PWV reanalyses.
•  Through PDFs strong evidence exists that the Var Flood was an extreme event for
PWV (6 sigma).