Flinders Exploration Limited | FEX
Transcription
Flinders Exploration Limited | FEX
15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Flinders Exploration Limited | FEX A diverse mix of advanced and early stage exploration projects Key points FEX has an experienced management team with a solid track record of discovery. First and second order projects ready for testing include: Copper Claim - a large low grade copper oxide project containing an Inferred Resource of 55,000t has the potential for heap leach SXEW extraction. The mineralisation is open in most directions and has not been fully tested near surface; The Black Cat JORC compliant gold resource of 21,400oz at 2.1g/t requires minimal expenditure to move into production with a toll treatment option; The highly prospective Porters Mount intrusive porphyry gold project in the Lachlan Fold Belt requires follow up drilling of large low grade and ineffectively tested deep and shallow targets. The exclusive address could deliver a conceptual objective of 5Moz of gold; The Jamestown 66km x 10km phosphate anomaly, and the existence of small scale mining in the region provides enough acreage to allow a conceptual objective of 10Mt @ +15% P2O5 to be reasonable; Recent kimberlite discoveries at Eurelia with very high micro-diamond counts (+80) require immediate bulk sampling to determine macrodiamond potential. A conceptual objective of 1Mt @ 50cpht for 500k carats has been identified. With ~$2M in seed and joint venture subscription capital raised to date, FEX is looking to complete its funding requirements by way of an IPO for a minimum of $5M. Investment view The FEX IPO offers entry to a large and diverse Australian exploration 2 portfolio (14,017km ), including an advanced copper and gold project. Funding is required to progress a diverse mix of targets, in order to meet a number of technical hurdles. Success should translate to significant upside from the $13.6M market capitalisation at listing. Recommendation We believe that FEX offers investors a solid exploration portfolio and a capable management team. After visiting the key South Australian projects we are of the opinion the company can offer significant upside should any of the projects deliver on expectation. Initial public offering IPO Flinders Exploration (FEX) is seeking to raise between $5M and $7M at 20c per share in an IPO prior to ASX listing. The closing date for the Prospectus is 14 October 2011 and proposed listing date is 28 October 2008. Pro forma capital structure Founders/Directors/Promoters Seed capitalists Subtotal prior to listing FMS subscription agreement Vendors Public Total full subscription post listing Public over ($7M raising) Total oversubscription post listing Shares 16.75M 6.85M 23.60M 15.00M 4.18M 25.00M 67.78M 10.00M Major shareholders Andrew Andrejewskis David Tucker Kevin Wills David Godfrey Adelaide Equity Partners Ltd Ewan Vickery Robert Kennedy Ascot Nominees Pty Ltd Shares 2.5M 2.5M 2.5M 0.75M 1.10M 2.5M 2.5M 2.5M Director Andrew Andrejewskis David Tucker Kevin Wills Position Chairman Managing Director Executive Director Key projects 77.78M Source: FEX Page 1 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Overview FEX is seeking to raise $5-7M in an IPO. The closing date for the Prospectus is 14 October 2011. The source and application of funds is set out below: FEX expenditure program FEX has provided the following information in relation to the source and application of funds raised in the offer: Full Subscription A$5M Full Oversubscription A$7M 855,000 855,000 Total raised in the offer 5,000,000 7,000,000 Total funds available 5,855,000 7,855,000 200,000 700,000 Copper Claim 1,300,000 1,300,000 Porters Mount 75,000 300,000 Jamestown Phosphate 200,000 200,000 Eurella Diamonds 200,000 200,000 1,975,000 2,700,000 200,000 700000 Copper Claim 1,400,000 1,400,000 Porters Mount 75,000 300,000 Jamestown Phosphate 200,000 200,000 Eurella Diamonds 200,000 200,000 Total 2,075,000 2,800,000 Exploration expenditure - subtotal 4,050,000 5,500,000 Use of funds over two years Pre -offer cash and receivables EXPLORATION EXPENDITURE Year 1 Black Cat Total Year 2 Black Cat OTHER EXPENSES OVER YEARS 1 AND 2 Expenses of the offer 855,000 855,000 Additional costs post successful float (NOTE 2) 450,000 590,000 Vendor Consideration 440,000 440,000 Administration (NOTE 1) Additional project generation Unallocated working capital Total funds applied (NOTE 3) 55,000 200,000 0 200,000 5,000 185,000 5,855,000 7,855,000 Source: FEX NOTE 1. $450,000 of Administration (15%) is included for FEX/FMS JV expenditure for $5m raise and for $7m raise. $75,000 (15%) of Administration is included for Black Cat and Porters Mount. Total Admin is $580,000 for a $5m raise and $725,000 for $7m raise. NOTE 2. The company has made allowance for the payment of $450,000 and $590,000 in fees and commissions under Full Subscription and Full Oversubscription respectively. NOTE 3. If the amount raised is more than five and less than $7m dollars then the exploration budget is expected to be adjusted on the Black Cat and Porters Mount projects, as shown above. Page 2 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration We believe FEX offers investors a solid exploration portfolio, combined with a highly experienced and capable management team. The copper and gold projects offer more tangible and definable prospects at this juncture, while the phosphate and diamond opportunities are less discernible. It is highly speculative to place a value on the portfolio, although comparative analysis suggests a valuation range for copper of $1.2-10.9M and for gold ($1-2M). Moreover, market dynamics are currently favourable for all commodities (and particularly gold which has found increasing favour against a wave of global financial uncertainty). However, developing the portfolio is not without some associated risk: As with all early stage and advanced stage projects there are technical risks which can adversely affect the economics of the project and thereby the company. Copper Claim while an advanced exploration project is yet to demonstrate positive economics, especially given its size, grade and leaching characteristics. Resource calculations are also of a preliminary nature. There is a significant technical work program required to develop inputs which can be used to assess the economics of the project; Black Cat while more advanced is a very small scale gold project, and as such any adverse issues during the mining or processing phases (given progress to that stage), could also significantly impact the project economics. Furthermore while we believe the current project should show positive economics, mining studies are yet to be fully conducted. The Porters Mount, Jamestown Phosphate and Eurelia-Springfield Diamonds projects have no quantifiable mineral resources and therefore are still considered exploration projects and therefore speculative. In addition to project risks, there are other risks, such as those associated with share market volatility, funding, exchange rates, government and regulatory changes, loss of key personnel and partner risks. SWOT analysis Strength Advanced development projects Access to numerous projects Demonstrated mineralisation Exploration success Good infrastructure Acquisition of new projects Established JORC resources Farm out potential Highly experienced explorers Favourable acid prices Weakness Page 3 | 23 Opportunity Threat Low grades Copper leaching results inconclusive Economics yet to be proven No gold toll treatment agreements yet Environmental concerns (generic) Metal prices Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration The portfolio Copper Claim FEX can earn 75% of a potential SXEW heap leach copper project within three years by expending $6M The Copper Claim project is a potential SXEW heap leach opportunity located within the southern Flinders Ranges some 265km north of Adelaide. FEX has a JV with Flinders Mines (FMS) where FEX can earn up to 75% by expending $6M within three years. Oxidised copper mineralisation is found to depths over 200m Copper Claim lies in the core of the Carrieton Anticline, in rocks of the lower Burra Group of the Proterozoic Adelaidean sequence. The host sequence of siltstones and sandstones is oxidised to depths in excess of 200m, defining a secondary mineralisation assemblage which is associated with disseminated and joint bedding and cleavage coatings of 5% manganese oxides, which contain about 5% copper. Copper mineralisation intersected over a 1km x 2km area open in most directions Copper mineralisation has been intersected over an area of 1km x 2km. At the southern drilled parts of the deposit, sections show the mineralised zone is over 200m wide and 60m thick, has a domal shape and maintains consistency over some distance. At the southern end the overburden above the mineralisation is 25-30m thick and increases on the eastern flanks of the dome. The mineralisation comes closer to surface at the north, is thinner, has less overburden and also maintains geological integrity over some distance. Drilling has not established the limits of the mineralisation, especially to the north, east and south. Potential exists for significant extensions. Very thick zones of mineralisation in the south becoming thinner to the north with much less overburden Geology Fig 1: Location of Copper Claim Fig 2: Carrieton anticline geology Source: FEX Exploration history Eight years of exploration and 31,800m of drilling completed. Replacement cost is over $6M in today’s terms Copper Claim was explored between 1969 and 1977 by Utah Development (Utah). The historic dataset includes 5,000 pages of reporting and 31,853m of drilling. Utah’s exploration effort included geochemical and geophysical surveys and diamond, percussion and rotary drilling. The Utah drilling includes 26 diamond drill holes, 51 percussion holes, and 3,226 rotary holes. Higher grade significant intersections include; ED06: 7m @ 1.13% Cu, ED06: 1.8m @ 1.96% Cu, ED09: 42m @ 0.51% Cu, PH03: 11m @ 0.70% Cu. Utah was not interested in exploring for shallow oxide lower grade ore Utah was looking for a large stratiform copper deposit within a particular litho-stratigraphic unit which was chased to depths of up to 600m. It did not appear to consider the mineralisation near surface of interest. To the north of the main drilling minimal early work has been completed to follow up shallow higher grade mineralisation. Current indications from sparse 1970’s drilling in the area of the Anesbury Cu mine, suggest mineralisation extends up to 500m from the northern end of the Inferred Resource. Page 4 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Recent activity Initial leach tests on drill chips define recoveries around 73% Work completed by FEX on the Copper Claim, includes establishment of a digital database from which plans and sections and ore outlines have been completed. This data compilation and interpretation has led to an initial Inferred JORC resource. Inspection of Utah drill core and selection of samples for initial leach test work has also been undertaken. Simple bottle roll leach tests conducted on drill chip samples from two holes (ED16 and ED17) resulted in average recoveries of 73% (27-90% range) after 24 hours in 5% H2SO4 solution. Fig 3: Drill status plan Fig 4: X-Section with 0.15%Cu cutoff Source: FEX Resource estimates An initial JORC Inferred Resource containing 55,000t of Copper has been defined by FEX Seventeen cross sections have been used to contour the mineralised zone at various copper grades and then calculate areas to generate volumes. A preliminary cut-off grade of 0.15% was selected using $10,000/t copper to define a global first pass Inferred Resource of: 22Mt @ 0.25% Cu for 55,000t Cu. The breakdown at various cut-off grades used is summarised below: Cut-off grade 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% Tonnes (M) 22.0 12.0 5.7 Av. grade % Cu 0.25 0.30 0.36 Tonnes Copper 55,000 35,000 20,000 Source: FEX Proposed activity and budget Further drilling is required and planned (100 holes for 12,000m) to validate the internal parts of the resource and the extents which have not been closed. Drilling will also be required to update and validate the resource status, and provide more data for mine planning purposes. A significant program of metallurgical test work using column leaching trials will be required to determine the recoverable characteristics of the ore and acid consumption rates. Proposed budget Drilling and column leach tests Yr 1 Yr 2 Total $1.3M $1.4M $2.7M Source: FEX Page 5 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Black Cat gold project The Black Cat project, comprising the Black Cat North, Black Cat South and Black Cat South East deposits, is located approximately 35km NW of Coolgardie in the Jaurdi Hills gold mining centre of the Eastern Goldfields in Western Australia. The project offers FEX the opportunity to generate early cash flow by mining and processing at a third party facility in the region. Fig 5: Location and leasing Plan Fig 6: Regional geology Source: FEX Acquisition terms Minority holding JV partner has waived its pre-emptive right with respect to the 90% majority Subject to listing on the ASX, FEX has agreed to acquire all of Ramelius Resources’ (RMS) 2 90% interest in the Black Cat Mining leases M16/34 and M16/115 (totalling 3.4km ). Existing JV partner JH Mining Pty Ltd holds 10% and has waived its pre-emptive right in respect of the 90% RMS interest thereby clearing the path for FEX to proceed towards settlement. Ramelius will receive $200,000 cash and be issued 2,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares in FEX. FEX will also pay a royalty to Ramelius based on production of gold from the tenements as follows: First 25,000 ounces: 4% of the price received; From 25,000 ounces to 50,000 ounces: 2% of the price received; Above 50,000 ounces: 1.5% of the price received. Geology and mineralisation Regionally the project is situated within the Dunnsville-Ubini greenstone sequence. The NW trending Jaurdi Hills shear zone, a probable splay off the Bullabulling shear transects the sequence several kilometres to the east of the mining lease. The bedrock lithologies at the Black Cat deposits are basaltic rocks which have been intruded by diorite and granodioritic units which in turn have been cut by NW trending shears and quartz veins. Gold mineralisation in the Black Cat deposits shows a strong supergene component above the underlying primary mineralisation. The primary gold mineralisation is associated with granodioritic intrusives and within shears on and near the footwall contact with lesser amounts within the granodiorite and the mafic volcanics. Previous history Underground mining occurred between 1897 and 1907 which produced 16,800 ounces of gold. During 1998 to 2000, Kinver Mining NL completed RAB, aircore and RC drilling that led to the delineation of the Black Cat gold deposit. This deposit was mined to 40m in 2001 by Kinver and Toro Mining Pty Ltd to extract 23,600t at 5.34g/t. Page 6 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration 2007 optimisation studies highlighted positive economics at A$750/oz In 2003 the project was sold to Ramelius who completed 126 RC holes for 8,738m, prior to completing a resource inventory in 2005. In 2007, Ramelius drilled an additional 50 RC holes for 1,977m to further refine the 2005 estimation. Ramelius also completed mine studies in 2007 for the three Black Cat deposits, Black Cat North, Black Cat South and Black Cat South East. The optimisation study showed that with a $20/t milling cost and a A$750/oz gold price, the project demonstrated moderate positive financial returns. Two strong auger hole anomalies have yet to be tested During 2008–09, Ramelius drilled a further 1,140 auger holes (40 x 100m spacing) to regionally evaluate the mining leases for gold and/or nickel anomalism. Results from the drilling highlighted two strong gold anomalies associated with both the Black Cat open pit and alluvial workings immediately to the north and south of the known mineralisation. These have yet to be investigated in detail. Resource estimates A revision of the 2005 resource estimate to JORC status was completed in 2007 to reflect the new infill drilling data, the global resource was defined as: 317,000t at 2.1g/t for 21,400oz Au. JORC resource contains 21,400oz @ 2.1g/t A breakdown of the resource categories is summarised in the table below. Zone Black Cat North Black Cat South Black Cat South East TOTAL Ounces INDICATED Tonnes Grade g/t 19,000 3.4 157,000 2.1 11,000 2.1 187,000 2.2 13,227 INFERRED Tonnes Grade g/t 13,000 2.0 88,000 1.9 29,000 1.9 130,000 1.9 7,941 TOTAL Tonnes Grade g/t 32,000 2.9 245,000 2.0 40,000 2.0 317,000 2.1 21,403 Source: FEX That portion of the resource within 50m of the surface was also estimated at: 102,000t @ 2.8g/t for 9,180 ounces. Proposed activity and budget FEX proposes to conduct detailed mine studies and complete the drilling in the exploration gaps along strike of the known mineralisation. Proposed budget Complete mine evaluation studies Yr 1 Yr 2 Total $200k $200k $400k Source: FEX Porters Mount gold project Located in the highly endowed Lachlan Fold Belt Porters Mount is located 50km SW of Forbes NSW within the highly endowed Lachlan Fold Belt. The deposit is situated only 35km SE of the 3Moz Cowal Gold mine. FEX has agreed to acquire the project from Capital Mining Ltd (ASX: CML) subject to ASX listing. FEX conceptual targeting has identified the Porters Mount project as a high priority Cu-Au porphyry system. Acquisition terms 2 FEX will acquire 100% in the granted EL6591 which covers an area of 65km . The consideration is set at $200,000 cash and 2,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares. A royalty for precious metals will also be included for future production as follows: Page 7 | 23 Up to 1Moz production: $10.00/oz; 1Moz to 2Moz production: $7.50/oz; 2Moz to 2.5Moz production: $5.00/oz; Other minerals: 2% of the net smelter return; and The total royalty payment is capped at $20M. Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Geology and mineralisation The quartz monzonite porphyry at the project is intruded into a volcano-sedimentary sequence along a NNE fracture zone and laterally covered by younger sediments. The mineralisation of the intrusive complex is associated with brecciation and hydrothermal alteration. Porters Mount itself is composed of tourmaline-bearing breccias which are often present in the roof zones of major porphyry systems. Conceptual objective of 5Moz Au is possible given the similarities to other deposits in the region FEX’s conceptual geological interpretation has proposed a nested sequence of mineralised shells, with a roof at about 125m depth. FEX contends a conceptual objective of 5Moz (150Mt at 1g/tAu) is possible at this project. The company has stated that the property was evaluated by Dr. Richard Sillitoe (a globally respected porphyry specialist) and he provided a positive review. Fig 7: Section with target zone Fig 8: Location within NSW Source: FEX Previous history Previous history shows very little persistence by earlier explorers Exploration has been carried out at Porters Mount since 1983, with various phases of mapping, rock chip and soil sampling, RAB, percussion and diamond drilling and various geophysical surveys including, gravity, IP and high resolution helimag. While a significant exploration history is apparent, FEX contends that very little persistence has been shown. Only two deep holes drilled. Both with long anomalous intersections Only two deep holes have been drilled, one at the south end of the project and one too far to the east. North Ltd intersected 142m @ 0.11g/t Au in TARD65 and more recently an 891m diamond hole drilled by CML intersected 172m @ 0.23g/t Au. While low grade, these intersections are certainly anomalous and worthy of further investigation. A shallow low grade oxide position is highly likely In addition to the deeper targets North Ltd discovered shallow, low grade, oxide gold mineralisation with results including 14m @ 1.02g/t gold from 6m, 3m @ 2.97g/t gold from 48m, 20m @ 0.42g/t gold from 22m and 20m @ 0.17g/t gold from 24m. Follow up drilling with 6 RC percussion holes by CML intersected further low grade shallow oxide gold mineralisation as follows: 12m @ 0.5g/t gold from 22–34m including 2m @ 2.5g/t gold from 22m; 8m @ 0.5g/t gold from 60–68m including 4m @ 0.8g/t gold from 62m; 10m @ 0.5g/t gold from 8–18m including 2m @ 1.5g/t gold from 12m; 6m @ 1.0g/t gold from 36–42m including 2m @ 1.5g/t gold from 38m. From the independent geologist report provided to FEX and referred to in its Prospectus, it appears likely that an oxide gold deposit to a vertical depth of around 50–55m may be defined at South Porters Mount. Apart from the zones described, a number of other targets based on IP, gravity and magnetics require systematic follow up. Page 8 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Proposed activity and budget A program of induced polarisation (IP) geophysics, which can detect disseminated pyritic mineralisation, followed by deep diamond drilling is planned. Proposed budget Yr 1 Yr 2 Total Complete IP and drilling $75k $75k $150k Source: FEX Jamestown Phosphate project Phosphate mineralisation located in an area with small scale mining and a number of prospects FEX have delineated a significant phosphate anomaly located between Jamestown and Orroroo, around 230kms north of Adelaide. FMS holds 100% rights to four exploration licenses where a 75% interest can be acquired by FEX through expenditure commitments defined in a joint venture between FMS and FEX. Two small mines exist in the area, of which it is estimated the privately owned Catfords mine produces between 500-3,000tpa. Geology and mineralisation FEX has a conceptual target of 10Mt @ +15% P2O5 The phosphate mineralisation is located within Neoproterozoic rocks of the Umberatana Group, of which the Brighton Limestone contains many of the known deposits. FEX has recognised that the mineralisation does not appear to be stratiform in nature, and undertaken an appropriate exploration strategy. FEX has identified 10Mt @ +15% P2O5 as a conceptual target. Exploration history Anomalous zone 66km long and 10km wide After undertaking a regional orientation survey, FEX completed a soil survey over an area stretching 66km N-S with a 10km width using an 800m x 400m grid. Several phosphorous anomalies greater than 1500ppm were defined with significant targets at Orroroo and Tarcowie. The Tarcowie anomaly has been in filled down to 400m x 200m spacing. Bulk samples of 20-25kg have also been collected from the Orroroo Phosphate mine and the existing operation at Tarcowie. Fig 9: Location of phosphate targets Fig 10: Orroroo phosphate anomalism Source: FEX Page 9 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Proposed activity and budget Drill testing is required to understand mineralisation style Given that detailed soil sampling has defined strong targets, FEX will now need to drill to understand the nature of the phosphate mineralisation. Proposed budget Drilling to test for commercial grades and tonnages Yr 1 Yr 2 Total $200k $200k $400k Source: FEX Eurelia – Springfield diamond project The Eurelia and Springfield diamond projects are located some 265km and 310km north, respectively of Adelaide, in the southern Flinders Ranges of South Australia. FEX can earn up to 75% of the projects through the expenditure of $6M in three years through a wider scoping joint venture agreement prospective for numerous minerals with FMS. Geology The projects are located within the Proterozoic sediments of the Adelaide Geosyncline associated with NW and NE trending faults and anticlinal fold structures. The structures are interpreted to reflect deep seated fractures, thought to be the conduits for kimberlite intrusions. The Eurelia area contains the most important diamondiferous kimberlites in SE Australia The Eurelia kimberlite province comprises a north west trending array of kimberlite dykes and fissures confirmed to contain primary diamonds. Secondary diamonds were also discovered in basal conglomerates along the SW margins of the Springfield basin, though to date a primary source for these diamonds has yet to be identified. Fig 11: Schematic geology for kimberlite emplacement Source: FEX Exploration history Flinders detailed helimag surveys have been instrumental in locating more kimberlites Page 10 | 23 Diamonds were first found in the Flinders Ranges in the late 1960’s by Stockdale Prospecting, and then later explored by numerous parties including Swan Resources, Freeport McMoran, Swan Resources, BHP, CRA and FMS amongst others. FMS has in recent times completed high resolution helicopter magnetic and ground surveys (50m and 25m spacing) and follow up sampling, bulk sampling and trenching to define at least five new kimberlites or groups of kimberlites which have been identified as diamondiferous. Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration FEX has found significantly higher microdiamond counts than previous explorers, which require follow up bulk testing to assess macrodiamond numbers Eurelia Projects Significant extensions and new kimberlites have been identified along strike to the historic kimberlites at Eurelia. The Eurelia K2 and K3 trend and the Bel Forest K4-K7 trend have returned very high and therefore significant micro-diamond counts. Some of these counts are between 60-80 micro-diamonds and highlight the improved prospectivity of the project area. Fig 12: Regional diamond targets Fig 13: Eurelia magnetics and targets More micro-diamonds equate to more macrodiamonds Source: FEX High concentrations of micro-diamonds generally indicate that higher concentrations of macro-diamonds can be expected in the kimberlites. Springfield Basin project Apart from detailed magnetics, FMS has collected bulk samples confirming diamonds and indicator minerals (including, chromite, pyrope, chrome diopside and picroilmenite). An analysis of numerous samples taken over the prospect, indicate that a diamondiferous kimberlite exists to the SW of the basin, though this has yet to be found. Proposed activity and budget Follow up bulk samples are an important next step at Eurelia The work program is focussed primarily on the Eurelia Project, where bulk sampling is planned to follow up high micro-diamond counts. This will involve mining a 100t parcel and processing it through a Dense Media Separation plant, to produce a heavy mineral concentrate from which any macro-diamonds and other heavy minerals can be sorted with an X-ray sorting machine. Proposed Budget Bulk sampling of high micro-diamond kimberlites Yr 1 Yr 2 Total $200k $200k $400k Source: FEX FMS agreement – other projects Copper Claim, Jamestown Phosphate and the Eurelia-Springfield Diamonds projects are part of a larger group of assets currently 100% owned by FMS. Subject to the successful capital raising and listing, FEX can acquire via a JV subscription agreement, a 51% interest in certain exploration rights, by spending $3.5M within two years and up to 75% by expending $6M within a three year timeframe. FMS will hold ~22% of FEX having allocated ~$1.5M in funding. Page 11 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration FEX has a very large portfolio of walk up targets ready for assessment There are a significant number of other prospects within the JV tenement package which offer potential for further upside, including the following projects summarised below: Yanyarrie Barite Prospect This project forms part of the FMS/FEX JV agreement. Yanyarrie is located 12km north of Carrieton, along the main road to Hawker in the southern Flinders Ranges. A 75m costean has exposed significant barite at surface which is coincident with a peanut shaped gravity anomaly. FEX proposes to drill RC holes in order to test the thickness and size of the barite and to take samples for metallurgical test work. Yanyarrie is situated on EL 4208, together with a number of other Barite prospective targets. Diamonds - other FEX has a significant portfolio of additional diamonds projects including: Adelaide Hills Prospect, Central Gawler Prospect, Southern Gawler Prospect, Lake Torrens Prospect, Billa Kalina Prospect, Pilbara Diamond Project and Strangways Prospect. Phosphate - other The Kapunda-Angaston Prospect is located south of the priority Jamestown Phosphate Project and has a historic production of 500,000t from the region. Base and precious metals - other Other base and precious metals projects also require exploration attention when time and budgets permit, including: Wilsons Anomaly EL 4404, Eurelia Copper Mine, Magnetic Anomalies C and D and Golden Point. Page 12 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Preliminary project assessment Copper Claim Copper - preliminary project comparatives and assessment A small number of heap leach SXEW copper oxide projects have been successfully implemented in Australia, including Mt Gordon (Qld), Girilambone (NSW), Mt Gunson (SA), Kanmantoo (SA), Nifty (WA), Whim Creek (WA), Leichardt (Qld) and Lady Annie (Qld). Lady Annie Project valued at $0.17/lb at time of acquisition, highlighting importance of these projects Lady Annie located near Mt Isa, is currently being operated by CST Mining (Hong Kong listed) with forecast copper cathode production of 25kt in 2011 and at a cash cost of US$1.50/lb. Lady Annie was purchased by CST for A$135M in June 2010, valuing the project at $0.17/lb on an EV/lb basis, however, CST has increased resources from 40Mt @ 0.9% Cu to 65Mt @ 0.71% Cu. Current examples of heap leach SXEW projects include: Ivanhoe assessing 0.25% Cu Mt Dore Project in Qld Rex Minerals did not commit to SXEW for the oxide component at Hillside The Rosemont project in Arizona is an SXEW project with o.17% Cu Copper Claim grade lies in the fourth quartile of global porphyry Cu deposit grades, though volumes are smaller Redbank Copper (RCP) is developing a 2,500tpa Cu cathode SXEW project in the Northern Territory by processing 210,000tpa @ 1.5% Cu at a forecast cash cost of US$1.4/lb and capital cost of A$18.7M. Venturex (VXR) is commissioning a small scale 5tpd SXEW plant (A$5M) at Whim Creek, to recover 5,000t of copper cathode from an old heap. Ivanhoe (IVR) is in the final phases of completing a 3Mtpa Cu heap leach SXEW study with a capacity to produce 15-20ktpa of copper cathode from the Mt Dore deposit in Queensland (144Mt @ 0.25% Cu). Rex Minerals has just announced a concept study for its 217Mt @ 0.7% Hillside project, though has chosen not to proceed with an SXEW plant as its oxide volume was “too small to justify” (oxide resource: 18Mt @ 0.6% Cu). On a global scale, we note the very large heap leach SXEW projects for low grade porphyry th Cu deposits and a review of the size and grades, indicates Copper Claim lies in the 4 quartile (Fig 14) with respect to grades but has some way to match the very large tonnages (+500Mt). Augusta Resource Corp. (TSX:AZC) Rosemont project does show however that lower grade deposits can be feasible. Rosemont has oxide reserves of 70Mt @ 0.17% Cu recovering 89kt Cu. The project is a combined heap leach SXEW and sulphide concentrate circuit operation and has a stripping ratio of 2:1. While overall capex is US$897M, the oxide plant comes in at US$68M. At a smaller scale Metminco (MNC) is reviewing an SXEW project at Mollacas in South America containing a resource of 17Mt @ 0.54% for 92kt Cu. Fig 14: Size and grade of global undeveloped open Pit Cu deposits Grade (% Cu) 2% First Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Fourth Quartile 1% Weighted Average grade = 0.48% Cu 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Current Resource (mt of Cu metal) Note: Refers to projects at the Exploration and Feasibility Study Stages containing >500kt Cu Source: MinEx Consulting Sept 2010 Source: Minex Consulting Page 13 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration The Copper Claim Inferred Resource currently 22Mt at 0.25% Cu (0.15% Cu cut off), has the potential to progress to an economic project if important technical hurdles can be satisfied. Attributes which will need validation include positive leaching characteristics, followed by a more detailed understanding of the size and grade distribution of the mineralisation. Copper Claim technical hurdles need validation to assess the economics of the project, and thereby justify funding to reach that stage The deposit lies in an area with good infrastructure, close to Adelaide and the ports of Whyalla and Pt. Pirie. It is anticipated that low cost acid may be sourced from Pt. Pirie which is only 65km by road from the project. It is difficult to accurately model the Copper Claim project and our initial assumptions (yet to be agreed or validated) indicate the project is sub economic. However we lack validated technical data, and cost inputs and it is for these reasons, the location of the project, the current and the outlook for the copper market, that we believe the project can justify further funding to assess its economic merits. Black Cat gold - preliminary project assessment The 21,400oz gold resource at Black Cat was evaluated by Minecomp/Ramelius Resources in 2007 which concluded that at toll milling costs of A$30/t and a gold price of $850/oz, the project was profitable and obviously more so at A$20/t milling costs. Black Cat has a preliminary pre tax value of A$2M, though and update of the mine plan is required for validation We expect that a project with a strip ratio of ~6:1, recovering 57% of the resource ounces, and a milling cost of A$25/t, offers a pre tax NPV8% of ~A$2M using a $1,400/oz gold price. Cash operating costs are estimated at A$1,109/oz. As with Copper Claim, cost assumptions and technical evaluations need to be upgraded from the 2007 study, especially given the change in the gold price. There are a number other considerations including establishing a local toll treatment agreement, to guarantee processing. While the project is small, Black Cat does offer the potential for a positive short term cash flow operation, with further potential opportunities from small scale acquisitions and exploration activity possible. Page 14 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Peer comparison Using the peer multiples methodology provides an indication of project valuations for copper but is an inadequate process to value the full range of projects within the company at this time. This is because, a significant part of the portfolio is still at an exploration phase with no defined resources and only conceptual targets identified. Copper A comparative assessment against peer multiples suggest a value range of $1.2M to $10.90M A review of copper only resources highlights the current valuations per pound of copper assigned for a range of companies at the lower end of the copper focussed peer group. From this evaluation, it is not unreasonable to expect that the FEX Copper Claim project could attract an EV multiple between $0.01/lb and $0.09/lb, suggesting a valuation range of $1.2M to $10.9M or $7.2M using the weighted average. Company ASX Code Coppermoly Ltd COY Golden Cross Resources GCR Marengo Mining MGO Redbank Copper Ltd RCP Havilah Resources HAV Altona Resources AOH Metminco Ltd MNC Zambezi Resources ZRL Phoenix Copper Ltd PNX Rex Minerals RXM Venturex Resources VXR Hillgrove Resources HGO Finders Resources FND Weighted average EV/$M 12 18 167 6 53 118 437 27 8 287 98 165 128 1,523 Mt 200 197 775 6 86 195 943 23 5 217 27 32 8 2,715 % Cu 0.36% 0.31% 0.37% 1.50% 0.72% 0.62% 0.37% 0.85% 0.82% 0.70% 1.20% 0.90% 2.50% 0.45% Mt Cu 0.72 0.61 2.88 0.09 0.62 1.21 3.52 0.20 0.04 1.52 0.32 0.29 0.21 12.23 EV/lb $0.01 $0.01 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.06 $0.06 $0.08 $0.09 $0.14 $0.26 $0.30 $0.06 Source: IRESS, Company Websites The large valuation range highlights the early stage nature of this project and the associate uncertainties and risks. Gold Gold peer comparisons appear to devalue Black Cat The average EV/oz for the lower end of the gold peer group is A$34/oz The lower end of the gold sector has been chosen to assess appropriate gold valuation multiples. Using the weighted average EV/oz indicates a valuation of $0.7M however we believe this estimate appears low, discounting the potential to mine the deposit quickly and the bullish gold price environment. A more realistic assessment would suggest a value range of $1M to $2M. Fig 15: EV/oz for gold juniors $160 $140 EV/ozA$ $120 $100 $80 $60 Weighted Average EV/oz = $34 $40 $20 $0 AAM AQQ SMC MOY ATV NME MZM SML MYG ALY BCN MCO CRB ASX Company Code Source: IRESS, company websites Page 15 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com CRK 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Phosphate Peer multiples from a small dataset are unreliable and inconclusive The existence of few companies in this peer group provide only limited valuation multiples. As such we believe these are inconclusive, furthermore FEX currently has no defined phosphate resource. Company Minemakers Ltd Legend International Weighted average Code EV/$M MAK 87.80 USOTC:LGDI 84.10 171.90 Mt 1,938 1,200 3,138 % P2O5 Mt P2O5 14% 278.8 16% 278.8 17.8% 557.6 EV/t $0.05 $0.07 $0.05 Source: IRESS, company websites; note Legend listed on US OTC.BB Diamonds Diamond peer valuations discount pre-mine projects and don’t take account of the value of the ore A small peer group with resources in the diamonds sector also makes comparatives difficult, especially when one of the companies has value attributed from other commodities. Nevertheless the data does provide a starting point. Company North Australian Diamonds Venus Metals Weighted average Code NAD VMC EV/$M 22.50 42.90 65.40 Mt 30 18 48 cpht 24 28 25 Carats (M) 7.2 5.0 12.2 Source: IRESS, company websites Page 16 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com EV/C $3.13 $8.58 $5.36 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Market outlook Copper Copper market looks buoyant to well beyond 2011, even with new production The copper market continues to be undersupplied with most observers forecasting a deficit in 2011 of around 400kt and continuing into 2012. The deficit has been reflected in current spot prices well above US$4.00/lb. While new production should see the market move into a small surplus in 2013 and 2014, the supply demand balance is expected to remain fragile, and therefore longer term prices forecast to remain above US$3.00/lb. Global copper grades continue to be declining from historic levels, though some relief could follow from planned new production. Fig 16: Global copper supply demand Fig 17: Changes in Cu head grades Source: Rio Tinto Source: Minex Consulting Gold Gold remains a safe haven for the foreseeable future Gold continues to maintain its upwards trajectory with current prices over US$1,600/oz. The maintenance of the safe haven status continues with the weakness of the US dollar, European sovereign risk, US quantitative easing and debt default, and rising global inflation levels. Gold is expected to maintain prices above US$1,200/oz over the short to medium term. Phosphate Phosphate demand remains critical in meeting global food production needs Phosphate fertilizer demand is growing in order to satisfy increasing global nutrient needs. A combination of depleted arable soils, population growth, progress in developing countries, changing diets and greater use of biofuels is driving fertilizer needs. While Australia is becoming an important producer, significant imports of phosphate rock (540kt in 2008/09) and ammonium fertilizers (776kt in 2008/09) continue. Fig 18: Supply demand forecasts Fig 19: Wheat growing regions Demand Population Source: Legend International Page 17 | 23 Peak Phosphate Source: ABARE Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Incitec Pivot (IPL) produces ~975,000t of ammonium fertilizers from Phosphate Hill in Queensland (resource: 136Mt at 23.2% P205, WMC 2005 – not all resources included). Minemakers (MAK) is also looking to develop the Wonarah deposit in NT (resource: 1,258Mt at 12% P2O5) as is Legend International from its Paradise deposits near Mt Isa in Queensland (1,200Mt at 16% P2O5). Current rock phosphate prices are in the vicinity of US$200t ex Morocco, while di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) prices vary between US$650t and $655/t FOB Tampa. As transport is an important cost component, regional/local sources could become very important. Fig 20: Rock phosphate and DAP prices Source: Patersons/Bloomberg Diamonds Diamond demand is expected to grow at very high rates over next eight years Rough diamond production is expected to return to 2008 levels (165M carats) around 2015 and to remain at around 165–167M carats per year as a result of a limited supply of new projects and depletion of existing mines. Based on the outlook of each of the main diamond jewellery markets demand is expected to grow by 33% over the next eight years (source: Alrosa). As a result of this emerging fundamental imbalance between supply and demand, the rough diamond prices in 2018 may be as much as 31% higher in real terms as compared to pre-crisis 2008 levels (source: Alrosa). Australian production has dropped from Argyle given the transition from open pit mining to underground block caving. Rio Tinto reported production of 9.8M carats in 2010 vs 10.6M carats in 2009. Other diamond resources are held by Venus Metals (ASX: VMC) with a 5m carat resource at the Smoke Creek alluvial project, and North Australian Diamonds (ASX: NAD) with 7.2M carat resource at the previously mined Merlin deposit. Supply is not expected to keep up with demand Fig 21: Diamond market supply and demand Source: Alrosa Page 18 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Directors Chairman: Andrew J Andrejewskis Mr Andrejewskis has held senior roles within both Government and private industry. He was Managing Director of SAPEX Limited which was recently bought out by Linc Energy. He is a former Director General and CEO of the Department of Mines and Energy, South Australia (MESA) and Director Petroleum Development for the Northern Territory government. Mr Andrejewskis has previously held CEO and Board positions in resource companies. Managing Director : David Tucker FEX will be headed by highly experienced and current FMS diamond and phosphate exploration manager, Dr David Tucker. Dr Tucker is a geophysicist with 37 years’ experience in multi-commodity mineral and petroleum exploration in Australia and overseas. He has broad experience in diamonds, base and precious metals. His career has involved him in programs with both government and private sector companies. Dr Tucker was previously Principal Research Scientist with the Federal Government’s airborne geophysical survey where he oversaw the introduction of high quality geophysical imagery for the exploration industry. Subsequently, he has been the designer and quality controller in some of the largest new airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys in Australia’s history. He has been a principal in a petroleum exploration joint venture in the South Australian Stansbury Basin and was founding shareholder, chairman and managing director of the Kalahari Mining NL group of companies which were exploring in Namibia and Botswana for base metals and gold. Executive Director : Kevin Wills Kevin Wills was the former and founding Managing Director of FMS, responsible for the recognition and initial evaluation of the Blacksmith iron ore deposit. He has previously held MD and board positions in several resource companies. He has also been involved with discovery, feasibility and development of numerous ore bodies including: diamonds, base metals, gold, mineral sands and iron ore. He also introduced calcrete sampling to SA which was later instrumental in the Challenger discovery. He has extensive diamond and South Australian exploration management experience which will be valuable to the new company. Kevin Wills is an Associate Professor teaching and undertaking research at the University of Adelaide. Page 19 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration References Replacement Supplementary Prospectus, Flinders Exploration Pty Ltd Fourth Supplementary Prospectus, Flinders Exploration Pty Ltd Quarterly Report to 30-6-11, Venturex Resources ASX Announcement Investor Roadshow Presentation, Ivanhoe Mines Australia Conceptual Study for Hillside, Rex Minerals ASX Announcement Exposure to new gold and copper development projects, Flinders Exploration Pty Ltd June 2011 Investor Presentation, Metminco Resources Second Supplementary Prospectus, Flinders Exploration Pty Ltd Legend - A Germinating Fertilser Producer, Patersons Securities Australian Crop Report, ABARE Size and Grade of Globally Undeveloped Open Pit Cu Deposits, Minex Consulting Pty Ltd Capital Mining ASX Announcement Diamond Market Outlook, Alrosa CFE Completes Sale of Lady Annie Project, Cape Lambert Iron ASX Announcement A new South Australian Explorer, Flinders Exploration Pty Ltd Redbank Cu Development Study, Redbank Mines ASX Announcement Supplementary Prospectus, Q Copper Australia Rosemont Cu Project Feasibility Study NI43-101, Augusta Resource Corp. Quarterly Report to 31/3/2007, Ramelius Resources ASX Announcement Prospectus, Capital Mining ASX Announcement Websites www.riotinto.com www.abare.gov.au www.lgdi.net eng.alrosa.au www.capitalmining.com.au www.fexploration.com www.redbankcopper.com.au www.minexconsulting.com www.augustaresource.com www.venturexresources.com www.nadl.com.au www.rameliusresources.com.au www.qcopper.com.au www.capelam.com.au www.rexminerals.com.au www.ivanhoeaustralia.com www.metminco.com.au www.venusmetals.com.au www.incitecpivot.com www.flindersmines.com www.minemakers.com.au Page 20 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com Oct-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 May-11 May-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Feb-11 Sep-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 May-10 May-10 Sep-09 Aug-07 Apr-07 Nov-06 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Glossary Au = Gold Auger holes = drill holes Brecciation= the formation of breccia, or masses of rock composed of fragments of older rock fused together. Barite = A yellow, white, or colourless crystalline mineral of barium sulphate. Cu = Copper Chromite = a brownish-black mineral consisting of a ferrous chromic oxide in cubic crystalline form, occurring principally in basic igneous rocks. Chrome diopside = is a prospecting indicator for diamonds. Diopside is found in ultramafic (kimberlite and peridotite) igneous rocks. Costean = the process by which miners seek to discover metallic lodes. It consist in sinking small pits through the superficial deposits to the solid rock, and then driving from one pit to another across the direction of the vein, in such manner as to cross all the veins between the two pits. DAP = Diammonium phosphate. Diorite = is a grey to dark grey intermediate intrusive igneous rock. g = grams Granodioritic = granodiorite is an instrusive igneous rock similar to granite. Geosyncline = a usually elongate, basin like depression along the edge of a continent, in which a thick sequence of sediments and volcanic deposits has accumulated. High resolution helimag = a high resolution helicopter-borne magnetic and SAM acquisition system. Induced polarisation - is a geophysical imaging technique used to identify subsurface materials, such as ore. JORC - Joint Ore Reserves Committee. Kimberlite = an intrusive igneous rock generated at great depth in the earth's mantle and consisting largely of olivine and phlogopite. It often contains diamonds. Km = kilometres Lithio- straigraphic -The scientific study and categorization of rock strata based on their lithology (colour, texture, and composition). m = metres M = million Mafic = a silicate mineral or rock that is rich in magnesium and iron. Monzonite porphyry = monzonite porphyry is often associated with copper mineralization in the porphyry copper ore deposits. Neoproterozoic rocks = date from 1,000 to 542.0 ± 1M years. Oz = ounce ppm = parts per million Picroilmenite = a chromium- and magnesium-rich variety of ilmenite. Page 21 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Proterozoic - the later of the two divisions of the Precambrian Eon, from about 2.5B to 540M years ago. The Proterozoic was characterized by the formation of stable continents, the appearance of abundant bacteria and archaea, and the buildup of oxygen in the atmosphere. Pyritic = A brass-coloured mineral. Pyrope = a deep yellowish-red garnet that consists of magnesium aluminium silicate and is used as a gemstone. RC = reverse circulation RAB = Percussion rotary air blast drilling SXEW = solvent extraction and electrowinning t = tonnes Tpd = tonnes per day Tourmaline = a complex crystalline silicate containing aluminium, boron, and other elements, used in electronic instrumentation and, especially in its green, clear, and blue varieties, as a gemstone. Page 22 | 23 Greenard Willing Pty Ltd ABN: 43 147 158 334 AFSL: 403562 Copyright © 2011 http://www.greenardwilling.com 15 August 2011 Flinders Exploration Important notice GREENARD WILLING’s opinions, forecasts or recommendations in this report reflect the judgement and assumptions of GREENARD WILLING based on information as at the date of this report and may later change without notice. GREENARD WILLING accepts no responsibility for data supplied by third parties. Neither GREENARD WILLING, nor any of our employees, contractors or associates, is in any way liable for any opinions, forecasts, recommendations or errors in or omissions from this report. This report is not an offer or solicitation to sell, purchase or subscribe for any investment. Any securities recommendation contained in this report is unsolicited general information only. No investor or potential investor can rely on the contents of this report but must obtain specific individual financial advice appropriate to their specific situation and obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or prospectus (if applicable) before making an investment. In accordance with section 949A of the Corporations Act 2001, any recipient of this report should note that the information is general advice only and should not be interpreted as personal advice as it does not take into account the recipients objectives , financial situation or needs. GREENARD WILLING acknowledges that its officers, employees, consultants and associates may have an interest in the securities, directly or indirectly, which are the subject of these statements and/or recommendations (if any) and may buy or sell securities in the companies mentioned in this publication; may initiate transactions which may not be consistent with the statements and/or recommendations (if any) in this publication; may have directorships in the companies mentioned in this publication; and/or may perform paid services for the companies that are the subject of such statements and/or recommendations (if any). GREENARD WILLING was commissioned to write this report and received a fixed fee. However, under no circumstances has GREENARD WILLING been influenced, either directly or indirectly, in making any statements and/or recommendations (if any) contained in this Report. Copyright in this report vests in GREENARD WILLING. 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