docDu bao dich hai lua
download 
Report Transcription
Du bao dich hai lua
Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models: « Toward practical monitoring of climate change impacts in the Mekong region » A/Prof. Hiep Xuan Huynh, Ph.D. LabSTICC University of Occidental Brest June 03, 2013 Content Problem of climate change in the Mekong Delta region Problem of sea level rise Problem of social eonomic indices Problem of BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) propagation Research participation Current and prepared research projects Support of mathematics and computer science? 2 Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam [http://www.agroviet.gov.vn/Pages/news_detail.aspx?NewsId=987 8#] Mekong Delta region is the coastal lowlands of Vietnam will be the region most severely affected by climate change (CC) cause. In the dry season, many provinces in the Mekong Delta are affected by salinity intrusion, agricultural production is damaged, many areas have a lack of fresh water for household ... Before this situation, many localities in the Mekong Delta region has been proposed many solutions to cope and adapt to climate change impacts due 3 Biến đổi khí hậu tại vùng ĐBSCL 4 Climate change on the Mekong delta region - Vietnam Rapidly increasing impact [Report of the World Bank (WB)] Vietnam is one of the countries most affected when global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. Over 12% of Vietnam's coast will be submerged under 1 meter sea level. Mekong Delta and Red River Delta are the regions lying to the most affected when flooding occurs, salinization and severe weather phenomena. As the prediction of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the impact will cause damage of about 17 billion each year and that about 17 million people homeless. But the Office of Management survey of marine resources and the environment (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) forecasts that sea levels will rise in Vietnam from 315 cm in 2010, coming from 15-90 cm in in 2070. The affected area is Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Thanh Hoa, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh. 5 Climate change on the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam [Not many storms at the Mekong Delta region before] But with the Linda 1997 storm went through the area and in 2006, tailed Durion storm swept through, causing heavy losses of life and property. Severity of storms such as hurricanes in the Delta Durion will cause even greater and more intense if sea levels rise higher than currently. [A/Prof. Nguyen Huu Chiem (College of Environment and Natural Resources-CTU)] “Mekong Delta region is influenced by global climate change. Land discolored, biodiversity decline. The area of land salinization, soil drought, increasing acidity. Currently, there are about 2.1 million hectares and 1.6 million hectares of saline soil acidity, drought. The air temperature increased and abnormal drought, floods irregular, forming many new diseases ... ". 6 Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam [According to the meteorological branch of the Mekong Delta provinces] In the tidal wave from late 2008 to early 2009 has made the area outside the dikes for 8 provinces floodplains including: An Giang, Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Dong Thap , Long An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho flooded. In addition, high tide as the river rises to about 70,000 ha have orchards, hundreds of kilometers of rural roads flooded depth of 10-30 cm. National road 53 is located in the town of Long Ho district was flooded on the 200 meters in length, 15 cm deep. Hundreds of people could not also flooded embankment. Earlier, the combined effect of storm rainfall time between 12/2008 to 100,000 ha located outside the dike in the MDR flooded from 10-40 cm, mainly orchards. Inundation occurs even in the dry season hinders the production and living of the people living outside the dikes. 7 Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam [Dry season] According to the Water Resources Research Institute of the South said that from 6 saltwater estuaries of the Mekong River system into the Mekong Delta 70 km inland. In Long An, salty water from the river into the society of the state was West Marine (Thanh Hoa district) in Ben Tre, salty water from the river to Cua Dai Phu Tuc has (Chau Thanh district) in Tra Vinh, saltwater Ham Luong river in the Long Thoi commune (district State needed) in Hau Giang, salty water from the river has to Tran Huu Phu, Vinh Long, An Dinh salt water from the river, had to come Cung Hau commune An Quoi (Vung Liem district) and Tra district town. In Ca Mau province, salty water from the river he had penetrated 65km Doc. Cai Lon rivers from saltwater intrusion and 65 km to the town of Vi Thanh (Hau Giang). 8 Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam Salt water from the Mekong River and 6 doors Cổ Chiên (of the Mekong River system), from the estuary Ông Đốc, Cái Lớn has deep intrusion from 10-60 km to 53 local communes in the provinces of Long An, Tien Giang , Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Vinh Long, Hau Giang. Currently a number of localities in the Mekong Delta has emerged the severe water shortage. 9 Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam [Pham Dinh Don, Director of the Environmental Protection Department of the South West region] In the next few decades if sea levels rise, Mekong Delta will have to face the situation salinity and flooding conditions downstream Mekong Delta large scale. Delta is the nation's largest rice bowl and the strength of the aquaculture sector should 2 will be most affected when the salinity change on soil and water resources. Mangrove ecosystem would also adversely affected by the deep water regime altered by rising sea levels. Salinization process at a high level can destroy vegetation and biodiversity of mangrove forest ecosystems in Ca Mau, Kien Giang ... ? Under such circumstances, if the sea level rises, national food security will be threatened and the lives of poor farmers in the region will be seriously affected. 10 Administration of climate change in the Mekong Delta region Climate change office of Can Tho city (Steering committee 158) http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/ Institute for Climate Change, Cantho University http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/ Multidisciplinary research team DREAM (Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models) http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/ College of Information and Communication Technology, College of Natural Sciences (Mathematics Department), College of Environment and Natural Resources 11 Sea level rise 12 Flooding by tide (in Can Tho city) Peace Avenue Road (Can Tho city) inundated by rising tides pm 15-10 - Photo: Thanh Xuan. 13 Flooding by tide (in Ho Chi Minh city) 14 Land-used planning 15 BPH on rice plant 16 BPH’s fired 17 Affected of salinity intrusion in rice plant in the Soc Trang province (spring-summer) http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/ 18 Predicting PBH’s infected Predicting model for all of 22 provinces/cities in the South of Vietnam Laû æång LaûccDD æång Läü inin hh LäüccNN  æïæïccPhong Phong Thaï ThaïccM Måå NN am am Ban Ban NN inin hhSån Sån Bình Phöôùc Thaû hhM Thaûnn Myîyî AA nnLäü Läücc Läü gg LäüccThàõ Thàõnn  äöäönn ggNN aiai Tán TánCCháu háu Tán ãã nn Tán BiBi  aûaû Teí Teíhh Taây Ninh Phæåï án PhæåïccDD án Taâ Phuù Taânn Phuù HH oaì hh oaì Thaì Thaìnn CChåü håü Láö Láöuu Bình Döông Hä ö Hä ö T r ë An T r ë An Taï hhLiLi nn hh Taïnn Uyãn æng Uyãn HH æng VV ó ónh öûöûuu nhCC CCuíuí CChihi Ñoàng Nai HHoàoànn ggNN göï göï ÑÑöùöùccHHoøoøaa CChåü aìaìm håü VV m LONG AN CChåü håü M Måïåïi i G GiaiaRay Ray HH aìaìm m Thuáû Thuáûnnnam nam Long hh LongThaì Thaìnn NN G oo Gaîaîi iG Giaia Traâ Truï Traânn Truï CCáöáönnG äüäücc Giuiu Phuï Phuï M Myîyî CCáöáönn æåï æåïcc CCáöáönnG ì ì Giåiå TIEÀN GIANG CC haâ uu Thaø nn hh haâ Thaø CCaiaiLáû Láûyy HH aìaìm m Tán Tán NN hån hh hån Tr Traûaûcc NN haì haì Beì Beì M Myîyî Phæåï Phæåïcc CC ao nn hh aoLaû Laû AA nnCCháu háu Baø Ròa-Vuõng Taøu Phæåï PhæåïccBæí Bæíuu Baì aa Baì RëRë Long iãiã önön Long Tán iãiã ûpûp TánHH Láú oìoì LáúppVV  AA ÍO UÏUÏ Q ÍO PH PH QUÄ UÄÚCÚC Thuû Thöø aa Thuû Thöø AA nnLaû Laûcc Bãú ïcïc Bãúnn lælæ Tán hh TánThaû Thaûnn Thaù pp Möôø ii Thaù Möôø CCaïaïi iDD áöáöuu Tri nn TriToâ Toâ Thaï hh HHoùoùaa Thaïnn ÑOÀNG THAÙP Thanh nn hh ThanhBçBç NN haì gg haì Baì Baìnn AN GIANG Tp. HCM  æïæïccHH oìoìaa M oaï MäüäüccHH oaï Tr m Traìaìm m CChihi m HH aìaì TiTi ãã nn XX uán uánLäü Läücc HH oïoïccM Män än Thuí æïæïcc Thuí  Tán TánCCháu háu CCháu äúäúcc háu HHaøaø m nn BB aéaé cc mThuaä Thuaä Tr ggBom Traíaínn Bom lala ïi ïiThi ãã uu Thi VV énén hh HH æng æng Bình Thuaän  ënën hhQ Quaï uaïnn G áöáöuu Goìoì DD Tr ggBaì gg Traíaínn Baìnn LiLi ãã nnHH æång æång  æïæïccLiLi nn hh M Myîyî Phæåï Phæåïcc Taâ HHöng Taânn öng khaï hhHH aíaíi i khaïnn DD i ilinlin hh DD æång hhCCháu æångM Minin háu BB eáeánn CC aàaàuu Taâ HHoàoànn gg Taânn Baí BaíooLäü Läücc M aaG Maa Guiui häö áöáöuuTiTi ãã únún gg häö DD CCháu hh háu Thaì Thaìnn AA nnPhuï Phuï Ninh Thuaän Laâm Ñoàng LiLi ãã nnNN ghé aa ghé CChåü håü G Gaûaûoo CCaïaïi iBeì Beì VV énén hhBçBç nn hh G Goìoì CCäng äng KiKi ãã nnLæång Læång NN uïuïi iSáû Sáûpp HH oìoìnn áúáút t Tán iãiã ûpûp TánHH KIEÂNG GIANG CCaïaïi iTaì aûaû TaìuuHH CAÀN THÔ Q . Q . CCaïaïi iVV äöäönn B n ç h T h u y í B çn h T h u y í CCåìåì  oíoí GGi ioàoà nn ggRR i ieàeà nn gg G Goìoì Q Quao uao Thæï Thæï M Mæåì æåìi iM Mäüäüt t Q . Q . CCháu hhAA háuThaì Thaìnn VV ë ëThanh Thanh Phæåï PhæåïccLong Long CAØ MAU BçBç nn hh aûaûi i Ba BaTr Tri i Thaû hhPhuï Thaûnn Phuï CCháu hh háuThaì Thaìnn CCáöáöuukeì keì TRAØ VINH Kãú hh Kãú Saï Saïcc TiTi ãã øuøuCCáöáönn HH uyì hhHH æîæîuuNN ghé aa uyìnn ghé SOÙC TRAÊNG M uyãn Myîyî XX uyãn Thaï hhTrò Thaïnn Trò M Moíoí CCaìaìyy CCaìaìnn ggLong Long CCháu hh háuThaì Thaìnn BAÏC LIEÂU G ï ï Rai Giaia Rai VV uõuõ nn ggLiLieâeâ m m Traø ÂnÂn TraøOO Long LongPhuù Phuù HH oìoìaaBçBç nn hh Tr àn TráöáönnVV ànThåì Thåìi i Tam ì ình TamBB nh VÓNH LONG C a ïi R à n g C a ïi R à n g Phuû ggHH iãiã ûpûp Phuûnn NN gaõ aêaêm gaõNN m VV énén hhThuáû Thuáûnn Thåï nn hh Thåïi iBçBç G önön ggTr Giäiä Träm äm Nn i h K iã öu N in h K iã öu Q . Q . Long LongM Myîyî UUM hh Minin CCaïaïi iNN hum hum Q Q. . Ä ÄM Män än HAÄU GIANG Thæï Thæï Ba Ba BEÁN TRE CChåü hh håü Laï Laïcc Long äöäö LongHH P h o n g  iã ön P h o n g  iã ön M hhLæång Minin Læång Tán oaì TánHH oaì CCháu hh háuThaì Thaìnn Lai ung LaiVV ung Thäú äúäút t Thäút t NN VV ó ónh hh nhThaï Thaïnn VV énén hhCCháu háu CCáöáöuuNN gang gang Tr Traìaì CCuïuï DD uyãn aíaíi i uyãnHH Không nhiễm Dt nhiễm ít Dt nhiễm TB DT nhiễm nhiều  áöáöm åiåi m DD CCaïaïi inæåï næåïcc NN àm àm CCàn àn 19 Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice Gieo sạ giống Xịt thuốc sâu Bón phân Mật số rầy biến động Mật số rầy ngoài đồng MỨC ĐỘ NHIỄM RẦY Thiên địch Hướn g gió Nhiễm vùng lân cận Mức gây hại và Di trú của rầy GĐST lúa Độ tuổi rầy 20 Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice (in detail) 21 Simulating of BPH’s propagation 22 Simulating of salinity intrsion (Bac Lieu province) 23 Models for the problem of sea level rise The sub problems are studied: Simulating the affect of salinization in a province of Mekong Delta region (Hoang Ngoc Hien) Simulating the affect of water levels by tides in Cantho City, Vietnam (Nguyen Van Trong) Simulating the flooding progression by the influence of rainfall in Can Tho city (Ngo Tuong Dan) Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of flooding? Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of temperature? 24 Sea level rise (in Can Tho city) 25 Problem of social-economics indices Establishing an administrative information system for leaderships of province and district in a province of Vietnam (Huynh Xuan Hiep) Establishing an information technology model for industrial and agriculture development in rural areas (Huynh Xuan Hiep) 26 Problem of PBH propagation Modeling and simulating based on multiagents apparoach to study the propagation of BPH on rice (Vo Tran Son Trang) Simulating the invasion of BPH on rice (Phan Huy Cuong) Predicting the infected and fired of Brown Plant Hopper (Vu Duy Linh) Establishing a model to simulating the BPH’s distribution on rice field (Vo Thanh Tung) Identifying the affects of BPH on rice field (Nguyen Trong Thuan) Estimating the BPH’s density in light traps with spatial approach (Huynh Khai Vinh) 27 BPH propagation and models (Ph.D. students) A dynamically multiscale approach to modeling of environmental issues (Vinh Gia Nhi Nguyen) Optimization by simulation of environmental surveillance network – Application to the monitoring of Brown Plant Hopper invasion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam (Viet Xuan Truong) CO-MODELS, engineering dynamic compositions of coupled models to support the simulation of complex systems (Nghi Quang Huynh) 28 Student participating? Engineer and bachelor level Some concrete problems? Master level Some concrete problems? Overview knowledge about the research problems? Ph.D. level Some concrete problems? Overview knowledge about the research problems? Research results are new and applicable? 29 Current research projects JEAI-DREAM (Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models) PEERS-ACCCLIMATE (Adaptation to Climate Change : Land-use Innovative Models Applied To Environmental management – ACCLIMATE) 30 Prepared research projects DREAMS (Designing Resilient urban Environments through Advanced Modeling and Simulation) SAUTEREL (Surveillance par cApteUrs auTonomes des insEctes Ravageurs et nuisibLes) USTH (Crowd-Based Monitoring: Using Images and Voice Recognition to Build Flexible and Dynamic Surveillance Networks of Insects Invasions) MOET (Optimizing the Brown Plant Hopper surveillance network using automatic light traps in the Mekong Delta region) 31 Informatics and mathematics Multi agents modeling and simulation Data mining Machine learning, SVM - support vector machine Image, video and voice processing Geographic information systems Global optimization Aggregation operators Sensor networks? … 32 Light trap http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66 33 Mekong Delta map http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14 34 Thank you for your attention! 35
