Du bao dich hai lua

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Du bao dich hai lua
Decision-support Research for
Environmental Applications and
Models:
« Toward practical monitoring of
climate change impacts in the Mekong
region »
A/Prof. Hiep Xuan Huynh, Ph.D.
LabSTICC  University of Occidental Brest
June 03, 2013
Content







Problem of climate change in the Mekong Delta
region
Problem of sea level rise
Problem of social eonomic indices
Problem of BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) propagation
Research participation
Current and prepared research projects
Support of mathematics and computer science?
2
Climate change in the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam
 [http://www.agroviet.gov.vn/Pages/news_detail.aspx?NewsId=987
8#]
 Mekong Delta region is the coastal lowlands of Vietnam will be the
region most severely affected by climate change (CC) cause.
 In the dry season, many provinces in the Mekong Delta are
affected by salinity intrusion, agricultural production is damaged,
many areas have a lack of fresh water for household ...
 Before this situation, many localities in the Mekong Delta region
has been proposed many solutions to cope and adapt to climate
change impacts due
3
Biến đổi khí hậu tại vùng ĐBSCL
4
Climate change on the Mekong delta
region - Vietnam
Rapidly increasing impact

[Report of the World Bank (WB)] Vietnam is one of the countries
most affected when global sea level rise due to climate change
impacts. Over 12% of Vietnam's coast will be submerged under 1
meter sea level. Mekong Delta and Red River Delta are the regions
lying to the most affected when flooding occurs, salinization and
severe weather phenomena. As the prediction of the United
Nations Development Program (UNDP), the impact will cause
damage of about 17 billion each year and that about 17 million
people homeless. But the Office of Management survey of marine
resources and the environment (Ministry of Natural Resources and
Environment) forecasts that sea levels will rise in Vietnam from 315 cm in 2010, coming from 15-90 cm in in 2070. The affected
area is Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Thanh Hoa, Nam
Dinh, Thai Binh.
5
Climate change on the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam


[Not many storms at the Mekong Delta region before] But with
the Linda 1997 storm went through the area and in 2006, tailed
Durion storm swept through, causing heavy losses of life and
property. Severity of storms such as hurricanes in the Delta Durion
will cause even greater and more intense if sea levels rise higher
than currently.
[A/Prof. Nguyen Huu Chiem (College of Environment and
Natural Resources-CTU)] “Mekong Delta region is influenced by
global climate change. Land discolored, biodiversity decline. The
area of ​land salinization, soil drought, increasing acidity. Currently,
there are about 2.1 million hectares and 1.6 million hectares of
saline soil acidity, drought. The air temperature increased and
abnormal drought, floods irregular, forming many new diseases ...
".
6
Climate change in the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam

[According to the meteorological branch of the Mekong Delta
provinces] In the tidal wave from late 2008 to early 2009 has
made the area outside the dikes for 8 provinces floodplains
including: An Giang, Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Dong Thap , Long
An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho flooded. In addition, high tide
as the river rises to about 70,000 ha have orchards, hundreds of
kilometers of rural roads flooded depth of 10-30 cm. National road
53 is located in the town of Long Ho district was flooded on the 200
meters in length, 15 cm deep. Hundreds of people could not also
flooded embankment. Earlier, the combined effect of storm rainfall
time between 12/2008 to 100,000 ha located outside the dike in the
MDR flooded from 10-40 cm, mainly orchards. Inundation occurs
even in the dry season hinders the production and living of the
people living outside the dikes.
7
Climate change in the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam

[Dry season] According to the Water Resources Research
Institute of the South said that from 6 saltwater estuaries of the
Mekong River system into the Mekong Delta 70 km inland. In Long
An, salty water from the river into the society of the state was West
Marine (Thanh Hoa district) in Ben Tre, salty water from the river to
Cua Dai Phu Tuc has (Chau Thanh district) in Tra Vinh, saltwater
Ham Luong river in the Long Thoi commune (district State needed)
in Hau Giang, salty water from the river has to Tran Huu Phu, Vinh
Long, An Dinh salt water from the river, had to come Cung Hau
commune An Quoi (Vung Liem district) and Tra district town. In Ca
Mau province, salty water from the river he had penetrated 65km
Doc. Cai Lon rivers from saltwater intrusion and 65 km to the town
of Vi Thanh (Hau Giang).
8
Climate change in the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam


Salt water from the Mekong River and 6 doors Cổ Chiên (of the
Mekong River system), from the estuary Ông Đốc, Cái Lớn has
deep intrusion from 10-60 km to 53 local communes in the
provinces of Long An, Tien Giang , Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang,
Bac Lieu, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Vinh Long, Hau Giang.
Currently a number of localities in the Mekong Delta has emerged
the severe water shortage.
9
Climate change in the Mekong Delta
region - Vietnam

[Pham Dinh Don, Director of the Environmental Protection
Department of the South West region] In the next few decades if
sea levels rise, Mekong Delta will have to face the situation salinity
and flooding conditions downstream Mekong Delta large scale.
Delta is the nation's largest rice bowl and the strength of the
aquaculture sector should 2 will be most affected when the salinity
change on soil and water resources. Mangrove ecosystem would
also adversely affected by the deep water regime altered by rising
sea levels. Salinization process at a high level can destroy
vegetation and biodiversity of mangrove forest ecosystems in Ca
Mau, Kien Giang ... ? Under such circumstances, if the sea level
rises, national food security will be threatened and the lives of poor
farmers in the region will be seriously affected.
10
Administration of climate change in the
Mekong Delta region
 Climate change office of Can Tho city (Steering committee 158)

http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/
 Institute for Climate Change, Cantho University

http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/
 Multidisciplinary research team DREAM (Decision-support
Research for Environmental Applications and Models)

http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/

College of Information and Communication Technology, College of Natural
Sciences (Mathematics Department), College of Environment and Natural
Resources
11
Sea level rise
12
Flooding by tide (in Can Tho city)
Peace Avenue Road (Can Tho city) inundated by rising
tides pm 15-10 - Photo: Thanh Xuan.
13
Flooding by tide (in Ho Chi Minh city)
14
Land-used planning
15
BPH on rice plant
16
BPH’s fired
17
Affected of salinity intrusion in rice plant
in the Soc Trang province (spring-summer)

http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/
18
Predicting PBH’s infected
Predicting model for all of 22 provinces/cities in the South
of Vietnam
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19
Predicting model for PBH’s infected on
rice
Gieo
sạ
giống
Xịt
thuốc
sâu
Bón
phân
Mật số rầy biến động
Mật số rầy
ngoài đồng
MỨC ĐỘ NHIỄM RẦY
Thiên
địch
Hướn
g gió
Nhiễm vùng lân cận
Mức gây hại và Di trú của rầy
GĐST
lúa
Độ
tuổi
rầy
20
Predicting model for PBH’s infected on
rice (in detail)
21
Simulating of BPH’s propagation
22
Simulating of salinity intrsion (Bac Lieu
province)
23
Models for the problem of sea level rise
The sub problems are studied:
 Simulating the affect of salinization in a province of Mekong Delta
region (Hoang Ngoc Hien)
 Simulating the affect of water levels by tides in Cantho City,
Vietnam (Nguyen Van Trong)
 Simulating the flooding progression by the influence of rainfall in
Can Tho city (Ngo Tuong Dan)
 Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of flooding?
 Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of
temperature?
24
Sea level rise (in Can Tho city)
25
Problem of social-economics indices

Establishing an administrative information system for leaderships
of province and district in a province of Vietnam (Huynh Xuan
Hiep)

Establishing an information technology model for industrial and
agriculture development in rural areas (Huynh Xuan Hiep)
26
Problem of PBH propagation
 Modeling and simulating based on multiagents apparoach to study
the propagation of BPH on rice (Vo Tran Son Trang)
 Simulating the invasion of BPH on rice (Phan Huy Cuong)
 Predicting the infected and fired of Brown Plant Hopper (Vu Duy
Linh)
 Establishing a model to simulating the BPH’s distribution on rice
field (Vo Thanh Tung)
 Identifying the affects of BPH on rice field (Nguyen Trong Thuan)
 Estimating the BPH’s density in light traps with spatial approach
(Huynh Khai Vinh)
27
BPH propagation and models
(Ph.D. students)
 A dynamically multiscale approach to modeling of environmental
issues (Vinh Gia Nhi Nguyen)


Optimization by simulation of environmental surveillance network –
Application to the monitoring of Brown Plant Hopper invasion in
Mekong Delta, Vietnam (Viet Xuan Truong)
CO-MODELS, engineering dynamic compositions of coupled
models to support the simulation of complex systems (Nghi Quang
Huynh)
28
Student participating?
 Engineer and bachelor level

Some concrete problems?
 Master level

Some concrete problems?

Overview knowledge about the research problems?
 Ph.D. level

Some concrete problems?

Overview knowledge about the research problems?

Research results are new and applicable?
29
Current research projects
 JEAI-DREAM (Decision-support Research for Environmental
Applications and Models)
 PEERS-ACCCLIMATE (Adaptation to Climate Change : Land-use
Innovative Models Applied To Environmental management –
ACCLIMATE)
30
Prepared research projects
 DREAMS (Designing Resilient urban Environments through
Advanced Modeling and Simulation)
 SAUTEREL (Surveillance par cApteUrs auTonomes des insEctes
Ravageurs et nuisibLes)
 USTH (Crowd-Based Monitoring: Using Images and Voice
Recognition to Build Flexible and Dynamic Surveillance Networks
of Insects Invasions)
 MOET (Optimizing the Brown Plant Hopper surveillance network
using automatic light traps in the Mekong Delta region)
31
Informatics and mathematics
 Multi agents modeling and simulation
 Data mining
 Machine learning, SVM - support vector machine
 Image, video and voice processing
 Geographic information systems
 Global optimization
 Aggregation operators
 Sensor networks?
 …
32
Light trap
 http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66
33
Mekong Delta map
 http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14
34
Thank you for your attention!
35

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