Towards to MRV in Indonesian Transport Sector

Towards to MRV
in Indonesian
Transport Sector
Presented by :
Hikmat Hidayat Putu
&
Fahni Mauludi
Ministry of Transportation
Indonesia
Photo : Hikmat
February 2011
Outline
 Outlook
 Current Climate Change Progress
 Potential Mitigation Actions
 National Action Plan
 Local Action Plan
 BaU Approach
 Achievement of DGLT
 Conclusion
Outlook
Sumber : ICCSR 2010 &
DNPI 2010
Proportion of Fuel
consumption in
transport sector
in 2005
 Transport sector is
Indonesia's largest
consumer of primary
energy (especially oil) 48%
In 2005
 CO2 emission from
transport sector about 23%
from energy sector (2005)
 CO2 emission in 2010 
67 Milion ton
 The share of primary
energy transportation
sector (especially fuel) in
2005 :
 Road 90,7%
 Water 6,9%
 Air 2,4%
Climate Change Progress
Forestry, Peat land
Farming
26%
Our efffort
26+15=41%
Our effort and foreign
funding
Energy and
Transportation
Industry
Presidential Decree
No. 61/2011
NAP-GHG
Presidential Decree
No. 71/2011
GHG Inventory
Waste
Presidential Decree 61/2011
NATIONAL ACTION PLAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS
 Emission Reduction Target (26%): 0.038 (Giga Tonne) CO2e 0,008 GT
(Transportation)
 Emission Reduction Target (41%): 1.056 (Giga Tonne) CO2e
Period
2010-2020
Policies and Strategies
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
Policies taken to support the NAP – GHG/RAN-GRK :
1. Increased energy saving
2. The use of cleaner fuels (fuel switching)
3. Enhancement of new and renewable energy (NRE) utilization
4. Utilization of clean technologies for both power generation and transportation
equipment
5. Development of a low emission, sustainable and environmentally friendly
national mass transport
Strategies:
1. Conserve the final energy both through the application of cleaner and more
efficient technologies
and through reduction in the consumption of non-renewable energy (fossil)
2. Encourage the use of new and renewable energy in small and medium scales
3. (Avoid) – reduce the travel needs, particularly in city areas (trip demand
management), through
land use management, reduce travel activities and unnecessary distances
4. (Shift) – shift from using private vehicles (transportation facilities with high
energy consumption)
to low-carbon transportation pattern, such as non-motorized, public, or water
Core Activites and Supported Activities
ITS
Traffic Impact
Control (TIC)
Modern
Logistics
AVOID
Congestion
charge
Car
labelling
Parking
Management
SHIFT
NMT Infrastructure
BRT
IMPROVE
Public Transport
Revitalize
Eco-Driving
Campaign
Emission standard CNG
Switch
Local Action Plan
Local Action Plan
2. Baseline GHG
Emission
1. Source,
Potention and
emission
characteristic
GHG
3. Propose
Mitigation Action
Plan
RAD-GRK
Local Action
Plan
4. Priority of
Mitigation Action
Selected
5. Institutions,
Funding
Local Action Plan
Local Action Plan
Source : Ministrial Decree No. KP. 909 Year 2011
General Approach of Business As
Usual
1. Prepare of the data nedeed, what are parameter/variable,
such as :
•
•
•
Number of vehicle
Population
National fuel consumption, etc.
2. Forecasting/Prediction Emission to 2020 (all parameter
involved) bottom up approach
3. Cross Check with top down approach, (Count the emission CO2
from vehicle, compare to CO2 emission from National Fuel
Sell)
Type of Data Regarding Calculation
No
Type of Data
Source
Time
1.
Road Length
National Statistic
Agency, Ministry of
Public Work
1987-2008
2.
Number of Vehicle
National Statistic
Agency
1987-2008
3.
Local Emission Factor
4.
Population
National Statistic
Agency
2009
5.
GDP
National Statistic
Agency
2008
7.
Fuel Sales
Handbook of Energy
and economic statistic
of Indonesia
2009
2001
Achievement DGLT
NMT
ITS support
Public
Transport
Feeder
(Peremajaan)
Conclusion






National and Local action plan for mitigation action 
8 Million GT CO2e
BaU :
- Uncertanties
- Available data, Quality of data
- Improved of data
Capacity Building (especialy on local government level)
Coordination among Stakeholder (regarding on data and
policies)
Law Enforcement to implementation the policies
Make a document for Proposed the 41% emission
reduction by foreign funding.
SALAMAT
Climate Change Progress




Initiative from Indonesian President in G20 meeting in Pittsburgh,
USA and Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen December
2009, that Indonesia will decrease emission GHG 26% from business
as usual and decrease 41% if supported by foreign funding, at 2020.
The target 26% will be reached from three sector i.e. Forestry,
Waste, and Energy (mining, refinery, industry, transportation,
household)
2011
 Presidential Decree No.61 - National Action Plan in GHG emission
reduction
 Presidential Decree No.71 – Implementation of National GHG
Inventory
2012
•
Guideline of local action plan in GHG Emission reduction
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
1. Pengenalan
BaU (Baseline)
BAU Calculation (has to be translated)
1. Input data: Populasi Kendaraan, Populasi Penduduk, Pertumbuhan Infrastruktur
Jalan, Pertumbuhan GDP, Persentase Penduduk Perkotaan-Perdesaan, Total
Konsumsi Bahan Bakar (bensin dan solar), Total Emisi CO2
2. Proyeksi: GDP/Kapita, Panjang Infrastruktur Jalan, Jumlah Kendaraan (Mobil,
Motor, Bus, Truk), Jumlah Kendaraan Perkotaan, Jumlah Penduduk
3. Analisa Regresi: Kepemilikan Kendaraan vs. Pertumbuhan Infr. Jalan, Kepemilikan
Kendaraan vs. GDP/kapita.
4. Proyeksi Regresi: Populasi Penduduk (Urban dan Non-urban), Panjang Jalan
(Urban-Non Urban), Populasi Kendaraan
5. Perhitungan: Perjalanan Kendaraan- tahun, Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Kendaraantahun , Validasi Konsumsi bahan bakar, Total Emisi CO2 Kendaraan-tahun, validasi
Emisi CO2.
6. Distribusi: Emisi CO2 Kendaraan berdasarkan moda (mobil, motor, truk, bis) dan
struktur kota (metropolitan, kota besar, kota sedang, total nasional)
Business As Usual Approach
Normal
Restrain Infrastructure
No action with:
No action with
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal Population Growth
• Normal Population Growth
•Normal Vehicle Population
Growth
• Vehicle growth depends on
restrain infrastructure growth
• Normal Infrastructure Growth
1. BaU
Pengenalan
Baseline
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Cross check with ESDM (Selling fuel consumption in transport sector)
Bensin
Tahun
2007
2008
ESDM(kl)
16.962.198
18.653.344
Estimasi- (kl)
16.775.200
18.880.214
Deviasi (%)
-1%
1%
Estimasi- (kl)
8.145.660
9.655.473
Deviasi (%)
-4%
8%
Diesel
Tahun
2007
2008
ESDM(kl)
8.511.215
8.911.926
1. BaU
Pengenalan
Baseline
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Assumption
CO2 Emission related to the fuel consumption
1. Gasoline: Emisi CO2 - 2,33 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)
2. Solar: Emisi CO2 - 2,62 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)
Year
2020
2030
Car
CO2 Emission (Million Ton)
Bus
Motor
Truck
Total
34.79
34.39
33.01
8.64
110.83
57.55
61.59
44.04
11.58
174.77
1. BaU
Pengenalan
Baseline
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
Asumsi: Data Cipta Karya:
Penduduk Kota tahun 2008 telah melewati jumlah penduduk desa (> 50%)
Jumlah penduduk kota metropolitan: 55% total penduduk perkotaan
Jumlah penduduk kota besar: 19% total penduduk perkotaan
Jumlah penduduk kota sedang: 25% total penduduk perkotaan.
CO2 Emission by Area (Million Ton)
Year
Metro
Large
Medium
Rest of Nat
2020
31.70
10.95
14.41
53.77
2030
49.98
17.27
22.72
84.80
1. BaU
Pengenalan
Baseline
Sustainable
Urban
Transportation
Improvement
Project
BaU CO2 Emission
CO2 Emission (Million Ton)
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
1990
1995
2000
2005
BaU Rest. Infr.
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
BaU
Cross check with Estimation CO2 Emission in 2007 (data from Bappenas, 67
mt CO2)
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya
 Teknis
 Kerangka Kerja Pengumpulan Data Nasional dan Daerah
 Proyeksi
yang relevan (Proyeksi infrastruktur; data makro
(populasi, GDP, dll);proyeksi tingkat kepemilikan kendaraan
bermotor;proyeksi aktivitas kendaraan berdasarkan tipe kendaraan;
proyeksi penggunaan transportasi massal dan moda lain.
 Pengembangan asumsi berdasarkan konsensus
 Calculation tools (alat perhitungan)
 Non teknis
 Proses kordinasi yang kuat (vertikal & horizontal)
 Identifikasi
pengorganisasian lokal dan nasional (kualifikasi
institusi, finansial, administratif, dll)
 Training of Trainers (penyamaan persepsi, khususnya metode BaU
dan kriteria pemilihan aksi mitigasi, pendampingan untuk daerah, dll)
Evolution of “Climate Change” issues
Back ground of International Climate Change Issue
Copenhagen
Accord 2009
G20 - Sept 2009
Pittsburg
Pernyataan Presiden
Target Penurunan GRK:
 26%  APBN
 41 %  plus PHLN




Indonesia Voluntary
Mitigation Actions
30 January 2010
Dana untuk Adaptasi dan
Mitigasi:
USD 30 Milyar  2012
USD 100 Milyar  2020
Transfer technology
REDD +
Transport Sector
Shifting to Low-Emission
Transportation Mode
Indonesian Approach
NAMA
Unilateral
Supported
Credited
March 2010
On progress
On progress
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya
Kesimpulan kondisi MRV saat ini (transportasi
darat)
Strategy
Local
measures
National
measures
Page  26
Avoid/Shift
Improve
 Requires bespoke studies,  Can rely on a top-down
but substantial levels of
approach. Some NAMAs can
data already available.
be MRVd where localised data
is available.
 Challenges
exist
in
incorporating impacts into
assessment at the national
scale.
 Requires
substantial  Can rely on a top-down
collection of new data to
approach. Some NAMAs can
characterise vehicle activity
be MRVd with currently
by mode.
available data.
Data / Slide Pendukung
Business as Usual (BaU) Infrastructure Constrain
Passanger Cars
Buses
Population
Urban
Car/Capita in
Urban
Car/Capita in
Non Urban
Motor Cycles
Trucks
Road Length
Urban Road
Length
Non Urban
Buses/Capita in
Urban
Buses/Capita in
Non Urban
Motorcycle/Capita
in Urban
Motorcycle/Capita
in Non Urban
Truck/Capita in
Urban
Truck/Capita in
Non Urban
Non Urban Road
Length
Road Growth
Urban Road
Length
Projection
Regression Model Cars/
Capita in Urban vs
Urban Road Length
Car Projection in
Urban
A
N
N
U
A
L
V
E
H
I
C
L
E
F
U
E
L
C
O
N
S
M
P
E
M
C I
O S
2 S
I
O
N
Regression Model
Buses/Capita in Urban
vs Urban Road Length
Car Projection in
Non Urban
Population Projection
Bus Projection in
Urban
Bus Projection in
Non Urban
Car Projection
Bus Projection
Truck
Projection
Annual Car km
Travelled
Annual Bus km
Travelled
Annual Truck
km Travelled
Regression Model
Motorcycles/Capita in
Urban vs Urban Road
Length
Truck Projection in
Urban
Motorcycle
Projection
Annual
Motorcycle km
Travelled
Annual Car
Gasoline
Consumption
Annual Bus
Diesel
Consumption
Annual Truck
Diesel
Consumption
Annual
Motorcycle
Gasoline
Consumption
Car CO2
Emission
Bus CO2
Emission
Truck CO2
Emission
Motorcycle
CO2 Emission
CO2
Emission in
Metro Cities
CO2
Emission in
Large Cities
Input Data
Regression Model
Trucks/Capita in Urban
vs Urban Road Length
Truck Projection in
Non Urban
Motorcycle
Projection in Urban
CO2
Emission in
Medium
Cities
Assumption :
Vehicle Consumption
Cross Check
Assumption :
CO2 Emission by Fuel
Type
CO2
Emission in
Rest of
Nation
Computed output for further calculation
Motorcycle
Projection in Non
Urban
Assumption :
Avarage trip length, Vehicle usage,
Daily operation/years, Avarege shift
operation, Avarage daily trips
Assumption :
Percentage of Population
by City types
TOTAL CO2
EMISSION
Non Urban
Road Length
Projection
Calculation Result
Fuel Sales Data
from ESDM
Integrated Modeling
Analysis of Indonesian
Policies and Transport
System
Integrated
Modeling
Data Base Development
• Vehicle number (type), age
• Vehicle fuel
consumption, annual kmdriven
• Growth of
population, GDP, etc
• Modal Split
• OD trends
• etc
Development of BAU
Scenario
• BAU normal
• BAU restraint infrastructure
CO2 Emission
reduction scenarios:
Strategy & Policy
Recommendations
• Package of Sustainable urban
transport policies
• Package of Freight Improvement
Program
• etc
• Avoid
• Shift
• Improve
Kerangka Pengembangan Aksi Mitigasi
Pengembangan Data Base
• Jumlah kendaraan (tipe, umur, dll)
• Komsumsi bahan bakar dan jarak
tempuh kendaraan (per jenis
kendaraan)
• Pertumbuhan populasi, GDP, dll
• Modal Split
• Trend Asal-Tujuan
• dll
Analisis Kebijakan dan Sistem
Transportasi di Indonesia
Pengembangan Skenario
BaU (Bottom-up and Topdown)
Integrasi
Model (Tools)
Rekomendasi Strategi
dan Kebijakan
• Paket Kebijakan Transportasi
Perkotaan yang Berkelanjutan
• Paket Kehijakan Transportasi
Udara
• Dll
• BAU normal
• BAU keterbatasan infrastrukutur
Pengembangan
MRV
• Pengukuran
• Pelaporan
• Verifikasi
Skenario Pengurangan
Emisi CO2
• Avoid (Hindari)
• Shift (Beralih)
• Improve (Tingkatkan)
CHALLENGES





Funding
Capacity Building
Coordination among
Stakeholder
Local Government
Involvement
Law Enforcement