Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Analyzing the Timeline:
Iran Nuclear Talks and Negotiations
In 2002 the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed that Iran was building
secret facilities to support its domestic nuclear program. After this announcement,
the United States and its international partners repeatedly attempted to slow the
progress of Iran’s nuclear program through economic sanctions and covert actions.
Negotiations between the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council
and Germany) and Iran aimed at ensuring Iran’s peaceful use of its nuclear program
stalled until the election of President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013. Logically discerning
the multitude of factors that influenced the negotiation’s outcome is essential to
understanding the success of the deal’s implementation and future of the relationship
between Iran and the West.
CHALLENGE
Understanding events surrounding
the negotiations that led to the
proposed Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action, revealed April 2,
between Iran and the P5+1.
Timestream’s organizational and analytical capabilities allow researchers to create
a succinct and streamlined analysis of the negotiations progress by breaking down
major timeframes and isolating pivotal turning points. Specifically, Timestream’s
tagging and filter features illustrate three main factors that were instrumental in
resuming negotiations: 1) President Rouhani’s election, 2) the Joint Plan of Action
(JPOA), and 3) the Framework for Cooperation between the International Atomic
Energy Agency and Iran.
SOLUTION
Apply Timestream’s interactive
features to visualize the evolution of
and identify the key turning points of
the negotiations
The election of President Hassan Rouhani marks the first steps
towards progress in the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran since
2006. Since his election, the P5+1 and Iran have agreed to a number
of steps aimed at restoring confidence in Iran’s peaceful nuclear
power ambitions and reducing the economic burden of international
sanctions on Iran. The Iran Negotiations Timestream case examines
the negotiations in four distinct timeframes: 1) Rouhani’s election to
the JPOA agreement, 2) the implementation of the JPOA, 3) the first
JPOA extension, and 4) the second JPOA extension.
Iran Nuclear Negotiations
The Election of Hassan Rouhani
June – November 2013
Timestream
 IRANIAN EVENTS/STATEMENTS
 MULTILATERAL EVENTS/STATEMENTS
In the “Pre-Joint Plan of Action” timeframe, Timestream’s timeframe feature illustrates the time period after Hassan
Rouhani’s election to the presidency1 showing the immediate change in rhetoric towards conciliation and interest
in finding a negotiated solution to the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. In his first press conference following
the election, President-elect Rouhani pledged to “enhance mutual trust” between Iran and the West. Additionally,
in an attempt to demonstrate intentions to change the status quo, Rouhani positioned himself as a “moderate,”
exchanged letters with President Barack Obama2, and assembled a new negotiating team headed by the more
pragmatic Mohammad Javad Zarif3.
Negotiations started in mid-October with three meetings between the P5+1 and Iran4, ultimately resulting in the
Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) in November 2013. The first formal agreement between Iran and the US since the fall
of the Shah in 1979, the JPOA represents a major political breakthrough in the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear
program. The JPOA stipulates that Iran must suspend key parts of its nuclear program in exchange for $7 billion in
frozen Iranian funds and the suspension of sanctions on certain goods and industries.
Iran also began consultations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), resulting in the Framework for
Cooperation, an agreement that granted the IAEA with “managed access” to two of Iran’s nuclear facilities and
established a roadmap to resolve all outstanding issues with the agency5.
Implementation of the Joint Plan of Action
November 2013 – July 2014
 MULTILATERAL EVENTS/STATEMENTS
 P5+1 MEETINGS
The “Joint Plan of Action” timeframe and Timestream’s tag feature illustrate the intensive negotiations between the
two sides during the implementation phase of the Joint Plan of Action, which saw a total of six meetings between
Iran and the P5+1 (highlighted with Timestream’s search feature) and three bilateral meetings. Additionally, the
International Atomic Energy Agency, tasked with monitoring Iran’s compliance with the agreement, released six
reports detailing its observations of Iran’s nuclear program under the JPOA and the various UN Security Council
Resolutions currently in force. In mid-February, the P5+1 and Iran signed the Nuclear Negotiation Framework, which
was the major breakthrough during this phase and served as the framework for comprehensive negotiations1.
Despite intense negotiations, no comprehensive agreement was reached during this timeframe. Unable to agree
on the capability and level of uranium enrichment Iran would be allowed to retain, the two sides settled for a fourmonth extension starting July 182. In the extension, Iran agreed to convert all of its remaining 20% enriched oxide
material into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, and the US unblocked $2.8 billion in frozen funds.
First Extension of the Joint Plan of Action
July 2014 – November 2014
 IRANIAN EVENTS/STATEMENTS
 INTERNATIONAL AGENCY REPORTS
 MULTILATERAL EVENTS/STATEMENTS
The “First Extension of the JPOA” timeframe reveals that although there were fewer meetings than the previous
time period, the number of positive statements by Iranian leadership increased. In this timeframe, the eight major
announcements regarding the state of negotiations indicate that the differences between the two sides were
narrowing. Additionally, the P5+1 and Iran met four times, but only in November at the fourth meeting did they reach
an agreement on a seven-month extension1. Speeches made by Iran and the P5+1 during this time period show that
there was a continuing disagreement on the level of enrichment that Iran would be able to preserve.
This period was also marked by a report that Iran had started altering the design of the IR-40 heavy water reactor
at Arak to limit the amount of plutonium it produces2, another reported sticking point in the negotiations. However,
an IAEA report published in September3 noted Iran missed the deadline to resolve issues relating to its research
into the initiation of high explosives and neutron transport calculations, which can be used to detonate a nuclear
weapon and to calculate the yield of a nuclear weapon, respectively.
Second Extension of the Joint Plan of Action
November 2014 – June 2015
 IRANIAN EVENTS/STATEMENTS
 MULTILATERAL EVENTS/STATEMENTS
The “Second Extension of the JPOA” timeframe and “nuclear negotiations” tag reveal the limited progress since
November 2014, with only a number of statements by the United States and Iran and two multilateral meetings
in December1 and January2. The first meeting led to no agreements; according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Sergei Ryabkov, this was mainly due to disagreements over the IR-40 heavy water reactor and sanctions relief. The
second meeting in January similarly ended with little or no progress towards a comprehensive agreement.
Despite the lack of progress in the multilateral meetings, results from bilateral efforts demonstrate progress, as
evident in the February meeting between the US and Iran on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Other
reports and recent pronouncements by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Rouhani indicate potential
efforts to encourage the Iranian people and hardliners within the regime to accept the deal. This is apparent in
Rouhani’s December statement3 that he would fight those in Iran who would oppose an agreement, and Khamenei’s
statement in February4 that he was ready to accept a “fair” agreement, thus demonstrating support for Rouhani
and the possibility of a nuclear deal.
After almost a year and a half of negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 unveiled
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) in Lausanne, Switzerland.
Announced on April 2, the JCPOA will act as the framework for the final draft
to be finalized between April 2 and June 30. The deal marks a positive turning
point in a historically tumultuous relationship, with Iran agreeing to reduce
its enrichment capacity in exchange for the European Union’s promise to
remove economic sanctions against Iran. Although the JCPOA has until the
end of June to be finalized, the participants remain optimistic about the
negotiation’s outcome as they move forward in finalizing the deal.