EXPANDING AND TAILORING RCOFs` PRODUCTS FOR

EXPANDING AND TAILORING RCOFs’
PRODUCTS FOR BETTER CLIMATE SERVICES
Buruhani Nyenzi (Ph.D)
Managing Director
Climate Consult (T) Ltd
email: [email protected], [email protected]
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CLIMATE INFORMATION AND
PREDICTION SERVICES (CLIPS)
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The term “climate services” refers to the delivery of
climate information and predictions from the
scientific sources to end-users
A service, is a service only when it is used; our
goal is to make people use climate services in realworld context
Climate information is just one of the elements in
the decision making matrix
NMHSs and partners have great potential to
exploit databases of information gathered over
many years to provide “effective” climate services
Predictions of climate variability over the next
season or two (seasonal to inter-annual forecasts)
are of immediate relevance
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OBJECTIVES OF THE CLIPS PROJECT
Were to:
 Demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic
benefits of climate information and prediction;
 Provide an international framework to enhance and
promote climate information and prediction, including
the establishment of criteria to measure forecast
quality and to permit model inter-comparison;
 Promote the development of operational climate
prediction at regional and national levels
 Support
capacity building and regional/global
collaboration in operational user-targeted climate
services
 Facilitate
the definition, development and the
strengthening of a global network of regional/national
climate centres;
 Enhance collaboration between WMO Programmes
and other relevant Institutions.
CLIPS MAIN ACTIVITIES
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Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIP and their
applications and create ownership of usertargeted climate services at the local level
Development of guidelines and methodologies
for SIP and applications in climate sensitive
sectors and systems
Promote development of consensus-based
regional/global climate outlooks
Provide users with new climate products
based on state-of-art scientific understanding
and establish links between providers of and
users of SIPs
Promote joint relevant intern. research with
other relevant climate programmes
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CLIPS CAPACITY BUILDING
ACTIVITIES
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Establish and network CLIPS Focal Points
 A global network of climate scientists/service
providers specially trained in climate science,
statistical modelling and prediction, applications
and project management.
 These CLIPS Focal Points ensured national and
regional coordination of climate information and
prediction products.
 Biannual reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS
Focal Points, and sharing the reports through
WMO portal.
Development of CLIPS Training Curriculum
Organize regional CLIPS Training Workshops
Development of user-awareness through workshops,
projects, Climate Outlook Forums and publications
CLIPS Critical Areas of
Applications
Agriculture and Food security;
 Water resources;
 Energy;
 Human Health.
REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMs (RCOFs)
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First established in October 1996 at a Workshop on
Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern
Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe).
Gained momentum as a regional response to the
major 1997–1998 El Niño event.
RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread
worldwide.
WMO through its CLIPS Project and a number of
national, regional and international organizations and
development agencies (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo
France, IGAD, USAID, AusAID, World Bank, UK Met
Office etc.) supported RCOFs’ growth and expansion.
REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMs WORLD WIDE
NEACOF
EASCOF
MedCOF
CARICOF
PRESANORD
SASCOF
ASEANCOF
SWIOCOF
REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS (RCOFs)
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RCOFs have provided platforms for Climate experts and
climate information users to:
 Discuss current regional/global climate status
 Exchange views on scientific developments in climate
prediction
 Develop consensus-based regional climate outlooks
that can feed into national climate outlooks produced
by NMHSs
 Engage in user-provider dialogue
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An important aspect of RCOFs is the facility to bring
together experts in various fields, operational climate
providers and end users of forecasts in an environment
that encourages interaction and learning.
RCOFs CONCEPT
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RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a
regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of
regional climate for the upcoming season.
Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the
climate service providers and user-sector representatives.
Encourages integration of Indigenous Knowledge into RCOFs
products
Build capacity of both providers and users of climate
Information and products
Climate information including predictions/outlooks could be of
substantial benefit to many parts of the world in adapting to and
mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.
Expanded RCOFS Components (1/2)
-Training of countries and regional experts on climate
dynamics, climate analysis and prediction with emphasis on
seasonal forecasting and its applications
-Production and update of operational regional and national
climate outlooks and their related impacts and advice for
users covering all seasons for the year;
- Awareness raising for users on regional climate variability,
trends, expected climate impacts and advice for the coming
seasons to decades;
Expanded RCOFS Components (2/2)
- Communication between policy, decision, practices , climate
science and services communities
- Integration of climate services into climate change
adaptation and development policies and strategies
EXEMPLE OF NEW KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY USED TO EXPAND
SEASONAL FORECASTING OVER THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN
RCOF PRODUCTS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONE ACTIVITY
July-November peak in October)
( November-March peak in February)
KNOWLEDGE OF JAS SST AND PRECIPITATION CORRELATION
IN THE SAHEL AND GULF OF GUINEA.
DETECTION OF AREAS WITH SST WELL CORRELATED TO PRECIPITATION
KNOWLEDGE IS REQUIRED TO EXPAND RCOFs PRODUCTS TO CYCLONE ACTIVITY
AND TRACKS: SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING OF SEASONAL
TRACKS AND ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONNES.
During simultaneous warm ENSO and negative SIOD phases,
TCs moving across the southwestern Indian Ocean tend to follow
more southward or southeastward tracks.
During neutral or cool ENSO and positive SIOD phases, TCs
moving through the southwestern Indian Ocean tend toward more
westward trajectories.
These findings suggest that use of an SIOD index in addition to
an ENSO index could improve intra-seasonal to seasonal
statistical prediction of southwestern Indian basin TC activity.
THE CONCEPT OF AVERAGE TO ABOVE PRECIPITATION NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO MORE EXTENSION WORKERS IN THE COUNTRIES
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Prioritize upland cropping and encourage rice cropping in low
land areas;
Plan for management of excess water in dams and reservoirs;
maintain levees to avoid flooding in case of excess rainwater;
Prepare or more abundant collection and storage of fodder;
move away the animals from the rivers in order to avoid
drowning;
vaccinate the animals to avoid the epidemics;
prepare contingency plans for floods or droughts;
strengthen disease surveillance systems and prepare for early
detection and treatment of water borne diseases;
ACMAD/PRESAO-15 AND FLOOD IMPACTS
EXPANSION OF ADVICE TO MORE HUMANITARIAN
AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS
FLOODS WERE OBSERVED OVER CHAD, NORTHERN CAMEROON, EASTERN NIGER AND
NORTHERN NIGERIA WITH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AFFECTED OVER THE AREA WITH
PREDICTED HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TANZANIA SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAM (2014)
SEASON ISSUED BY TANZANIA MET. AGENCY
DISASTERS ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE –
DAR-ES-SALAAM, TANZANIA IN APRIL 2014
DISASTERS ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE –
MSIMBAZI (KIGOGO) DAR-ES-SALAAM, TANZANIA IN APRIL 2014
DISASTERS ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE –
MSIMBAZI (KIGOGO) DAR-ES-SALAAM, TANZANIA IN APRIL 2014
DISASTERS ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE –
BAGAMOYO RD DAR-ES-SALAAM, TANZANIA IN APRIL 2014
DECADAL RAINFALL FOR DAR-ES-SALAAM
FOR THE MONHTS MARCH TO MAY 2014
Dar es
M1
M2
M3
A1
A2
A3
M1
OBS
147.3
69.1
209.9
100.6
282.8
65.8
97.7
LTM
31.9
46.2
105.3
84.4
94.5
93.2
81.1
DISASTERS ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN MANY PARTS OF THE GLOBE –
KARATU DISTRICT, TANZANIA IN APRIL 2014
LAND SLIDE IN SAME (KILIMANJARO
AREA), TANZANIA IN 2009
Impacts of climate variability and change –
Droughts/Floods
Drought in Dodoma 2008
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GHACOFs AND FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOKS
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In some regions, Regional
agriculture and food
security outlooks are now
regularly produced after
the RCOFs based on the
issued climate outlooks
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For example, the climate
outlook in the Greater
Horn of Africa has been
used by Famine Early
Warning Systems Network
(FEWS-NET), to prepare
the Food Security Outlook
for IGAD .
RCOFs AND PUBLIC HEALTH
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Many diseases are indirectly or directly associated
with climate variability. Vector-borne diseases are
sensitive to changes in meteorological parameters
such as rainfall, temperature, wind and humidity.
These include malaria, dengue and Rift Valley Fever
(RVF).
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Extreme climate events can trigger outbreaks of
waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid in
areas where they are not common.
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Some efforts are now being made to provide warning
of changes in epidemic risk by integrating rainfall,
temperature and other non-climate information.
PRESAC-07
EXPANSION OF RCOF PRODUCTS WITH
DISCHARGE OUTLOOK VALID FOR OND 2013
CONCLUDING REMARKS (1/3)
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Global, regional and national climate knowledge are required
for better identification of drivers and predictors for a region or
country
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Station observations from countries, GPC hindcasts/forecasts,
Global analyses are required for climate monitoring,
developing, calibrating and validating forecasting systems
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Regional Climate Outlook production Process involves a
number of aspects including interpretation of global, regional
and national monitoring and forecasting tools outputs added to
up-to-date scientific knowledge, variability, trends, persistence,
composites, analog analysis and forecasts discussions
CONCLUDING REMARKS (2/3)
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Some Challenges ahead:
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data rescue and management to better address seasonal
forecasting at local scales,
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transfer of advanced climate monitoring and forecasting
methods and tools to countries,
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raising awareness of users on available climate services
with clear communication on probabilities, uncertainties,
define thresholds ( probability, or magnitudes) for action with
each major user sector (agriculture, disaster , water , health,
…)
GFCS AND RCOFs: CONCLUSION (3/3)
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RCOFs are critical building blocks for the GFCS
RCOFs provide a great opportunity for the User Interface
platform in GFCS
The forums offer an opportunity to participants to ask questions
such as:
 What kind of climate information do I need for planning in my
sector?
 How frequent to do I need this information?
 How should it be presented in order to make use of it?
 Is there room for improvement in the way we do business
The GFCS/RCOFs interaction intend to enable better
management of the risks of climate variability and change and
adaptation to climate change at all levels
Researchers are keen to hear specific needs of the sectors
under the user interface platform