Conservation Genetics of the Endangered Isle Royale Gray Wolf

Conservation Genetics of the Endangered Isle Royale Gray Wolf

Society for Conservation Biology
&RQVHUYDWLRQ*HQHWLFVRIWKH(QGDQJHUHG,VOH5R\DOH*UD\:ROI
$XWKRUV5.:D\QH1/HKPDQ'*LUPDQ3-3*RJDQ'$*LOEHUW.+DQVHQ52
3HWHUVRQ866HDO$(LVHQKDZHU/'0HFK5-.UXPHQDNHU
5HYLHZHGZRUNV
6RXUFH&RQVHUYDWLRQ%LRORJ\9RO1R0DUSS
3XEOLVKHGE\Blackwell PublishingIRUSociety for Conservation Biology
6WDEOH85/http://www.jstor.org/stable/2386337 .
$FFHVVHG
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms
of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
Blackwell Publishing and Society for Conservation Biology are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve
and extend access to Conservation Biology.
http://www.jstor.org
RIWKH
*HQHWLFV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
,VOH5R\DOH
(QGDQJHUHG
:ROI
*UD\
5. :$<1(
'$*,/%(57
$(,6(1+$:(5
'HSDUWPHQW
RI%LRORJ\
8QLYHUVLW\
DW/RV$QJHOHV
RI&DOLIRUQLD
/RV$QJHOHV
&$86$
3URJUDP
5HVRXUFHV,QF
&DQFHU5HVHDUFK
)UHGHULFN
DQG'HYHORSPHQW
&HQWHU
0'86$
)UHGHULFN
'HSDUWPHQW
RI%LRORJ\
RI&DOLIRUQLD
DW/RV
8QLYHUVLW\
$QJHOHV
/RV$QJHOHV
&$86$
DQG
'HSDUWPHQW
RI=RRORJ\
RI$OEHUWD
8QLYHUVLW\
(GPRQWRQ
$OEHUWD
7*(
&DQDGD
1/(+0$1
'HSDUWPHQW
RI%LRORJ\
DW/RV$QJHOHV
8QLYHUVLW\
RI&DOLIRUQLD
/RV$QJHOHV
&$86$
'*,50$1
'HSDUWPHQW
RI%LRORJ\
DW/RV$QJHOHV
8QLYHUVLW\
RI&DOLIRUQLD
&$86$
/RV$QJHOHV
3-3*2*$1
9R\DJHXUV
1DWLRQDO3DUN
%R[
,QWHUQDWLRQDO
)DOOV0186$
. +$16(1
'HSDUWPHQW
RI%LRORJ\
8QLYHUVLW\
RI&DOLIRUQLD
DW/RV$QJHOHV
&$86$
/RV$QJHOHV
5 3(7(5621
/'0(&+
DQG:RRG3URGXFWV
6FKRRORI)RUHVWU\
0LFKLJDQ
7HFKQRORJLFDO
8QLYHUVLW\
0,86$
+RXJKWRQ
86)LVKDQG:LOGOLIH
6HUYLFH
3DWX[HQW
:LOGOLIH
5HVHDUFK&HQWHU
/DXUHO
0'86$
866($/
5-.580(1$.(5
&%6*
-RKQQ\
&DNH5LGJH5RDG
$SSOH9DOOH\
0186$
$EVWUDFW
7KHVPDOOJURXSRIZROYHVRQ,VOH5R\DOHKDVEHHQ
VWXGLHGIRURYHUWKUHH
GHFDGHVDVDPRGHORIWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQODUJHFDUQLYRUHV
DQGWKHLU
SUH\'XULQJWKHODVWWHQ
\HDUVWKH
SRSXODWLRQGHFOLQHG
IURPLQGLYLGXDOVWRDVIHZ
DV LQGLYLGXDOV7KHFDXVHVRIWKLVGHFOLQHPD\EHIRRG
VKRUWDJHV
GLVHDVHRUUHGXFHG
JHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
:HDGGUHVV
WKHLVVXHVRIJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
DQGUHODWLRQVKLSV
RI,VOH5R\
PW'1$UHVWULF
DOH ZROYHVXVLQJDOOR]\PHHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
WLRQVLWH
DQDO\VLVDQGPXOWLORFXVK\SHUYDULDEOH
PLQLVDWHO
OLWH'1$DQDO\VLV JHQHWLFILQJHUSULQWLQJ2XUUHVXOWV
LQGLFDWHWKDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\
RIWKHDOOR]\PHKHWHUR]\
KDVEHHQORVWLQWKHLVODQGSRSXODWLRQDGHFOLQHVLP
JRVLW\
LODUWRWKDWH[SHFWHGLIQRLPPLJUDWLRQ
KDGRFFXUUHG
IURP
WKHPDLQODQG7KHJHQHWLF
ILQJHUSULQWLQJ
GDWDLQGLFDWHWKDW
WKHVHYHQVDPSOHG,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDUHDVVLPLODUDVFDS
WLYHSRSXODWLRQV RIVLEOLQJV6XUSULVLQJO\
WKH,VOH5R\DOH
&RUUHVSRQGHQFH
VRXOGEHDUHVVHGWRWKLVDXWERU
3DSHUVXEPLWWHG
0D\UHYLVHGPDQXVFULSW
DFFHSWHG2FWREHU
IRURUGHURIDXWKRU
VQDPHVIRUFLWD
6HHWDEOHRIFRQWHQWV
WLRQSXUSRVHV
,VOH5R\DOH1DWLRQDO3DUN
1RUWK5LSOH\
0,86$
+RXJKWRQ
5HVXPHQ (OSHTXHQRJUXSRGHORERVGHOD,VOD5R\DOHKD
VLGRHVWXGLDGRSRUPDVGHWUHV
GHFDGDVFRPRXQPRGHORGH
ODVUHODFLRQHVHQWUH
JUDQGHVFDUQL
YRURV
\VXSUHVD'XUDQWH
ORVXOWLPRVGLH]DQLRVODSREODFLRQ GLVPLQX\RGH LQGL
YLGXRVD WDQVRORLQGLYLGXRV/DFDXVDGHHVWDGLVPLQX
FLRQSXHGHVHUGHELGDD ODHVFDVH]GHFRPLGD D ODVHQIHU
PHGDGHVR D OD UHGXFLGDYDULDELOLGDGJHQHWLFD1RVRWURV
WUDWDPRVHODVSHFWRGHOD YDULDELOLGDGJHQHWLFD\ODVUHOD
FLRQHVFRQORVORERVGHOD,VOD5R\DOHXWLOL]DQGRODHOHFWUR
IRUHVLVFRQDORHQ]LPDVHODQD
OLVLVUHVWULQJLGR
DPW'1$
\HO
DQDOLVLVGHKLSHUYDULDEOH
PXOWLORFXVPLQLVDWHOLWH
'1$KXHO
ODV JHQHWLFDV 1XHVWURVUHVXOWDGRV LQGLFDQ TXH DSUR
[LPDGDPHQWHHOGHODKHWHUR]LJRVLV
GHODDORHQ]LPDKD
VLGRSHUGLGDHQODSREODFLRQ GHODLVOD HVWDHVXQDGLVPLQX
FLRQVLPLODUD ODTXHVHHVSHUDUL
D
VLQRKXELHVHKDELGRLQ
PLJUDFLRQGHODWLHUUDILUPH
/RVGDWRVGHODVKXHOODVJHQHW
LFDV LQGLFDQTXH ORVVLHWHORERV PXHVWUHDGRVHQ OD ,VOD
5R\DOHVRQWDQSDUHFLGRVHQWUHVLFRPRODVSREODFLRQHVGH
EHUPDQRVHQFDXWLYHULR
6RUSUHQGHQWHPHQWH
ORVORERVGHOD
,VOD5R\DOHWLHQHQXQJHQRWLSRPW'1$TXHHVPX\UDURHQ
WLHUUDILUPH
KDELHQGRVLGRHQFRQWUDGRHQVRODPHQWHXQRGH
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
*HQHWFV
RI,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV
:D\QH
HWD/
ZROYHVKDYHDQ PW'1$JHQRW\SHWKDWLVYHU\UDUHRQ WKH
IRXQGLQRQO\RQHRIPDLQODQGZROYHV
PDLQODQEHLQJ
7KLVVXJJHVWV
WKDWWKHUHPDLQLQJ
,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDUHSURE
DEO\GHULYHG
IURPDVLQJOHIHPDOHIRXQGHU
ORVORERVGHWLHUUD
ILUPH(VWRVXJLHUHTXHHVSUREDEOD
TXHORVORERVTXHTXHGDQHQOD,VOD5R\DOHVHED\DQGHUL
YDGRGHXQDVRODEHPEUDIXQGDGRUD
,QWURGXFWLRQ
YLYDO5DLOV%DOORX5DOOVHWDO2
%ULHQ
(YHUPDQQ
,QWKLVVWXG\
ZHFRPSDUHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
LQ,VOH
5R\DOH
ZROYHVWRWKDW
RIPDLQODQG
SRSXODWLRQV
DQGHYDO
XDWHWKHUROHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
PD\KDYHLQWKHSRSX
ODWLRQGHFOLQH:HXVHWKUHHJHQHWLFWHFKQLTXHVPLWR
FKRQGULDO'1$ PW'1$ UHVWULFWLRQVLWHDQDO\VLV
DOOR]\PHHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
DQGDQDO\VLV
RIK\SHUYDULDEOH
PLQLVDWHOOLWH
'1$7KHVHWHFKQLTXHVSURYLGHHVWLPDWHV
RIJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
DQGPD\VRPHWLPHV
EHXVHIXO
WRROV
IRUUHFRQVWUXFWLQJ
WKHUHODWLRQVKLSV
RIUHFHQWO\
LVRODWHG
SRSXODWLRQV
HWDO
$YLVHHWDO*LOEHUW
*UD\ZROYHV&DQLV OXSXVZHUHSUREDEO\HVWDEOLVKHG
RQ,VOH5R\DOHLQ/DNH6XSHULRUDERXW 0HFK
$VLQJOHJUD\
ZROISDLUOLNHO\
IRXQGHG
WKHLVODQG
ZKLFKKDVQXPEHUHG
DVPDQ\
DVLQGLYLG
SRSXODWLRQ
XDOVLQWKHSDVW0HFK3HWHUVRQ3HWHUVRQ
3DJH7KHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQJUD\
ZROYHVDQG
WKHLU
SULQFLSDO
SUH\
WKHPRRVH$OFHVDOFHVKDVEHHQ
WKHVXEMHFWRIWKUHHGHFDGHVRIUHVHDUFKFRQWLQXLQJ
WR
WKHSUHVHQW0HFK -RUGDQ
HWDO:ROIH
$OOHQ3HWHUVRQ3HWHUVRQ
3DJH7KH
KDVSURYLGHGDQXQSDUDOOHOHG
VLPSOHLVODQGV\VWHP
QDW
XUDOH[SHULPHQW
RQWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQODUJH
SUHG
DWRUVDQGWKHLU
SUH\,VOH5R\DOHZDVGHVLJQDWHG
DQ,Q
WHUQDWLRQDO
%LRVSKHUH
5HVHUYHLQLQUHFRJQLWLRQ
RI
LWVVFLHQWLILF
YDOXHDQGLWVXQLTXHIDXQDDQGIORUD
:ROIQXPEHUV
RQ,VOH5R\DOHKDYHGURSSHGIURP
LQWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\
LQGLYLGXDOV
LQ0DUFK
3HWHUVRQ 3DJH3HWHUVRQ
XQSXEOLVKHG
GDWD
+LJKPRUWDOLW\
WKLV
GXULQJ
SHULRGZDVDFFRPSDQLHG
E\D
VWHDG\
RIUHSURGXFLQJ
DV
GHFOLQHLQWKHQXPEHU
IHPDOHV
LQGLFDWHG
DWOHDVWQLQHPRQWKV
E\VLJKWLQJV
RI\RXQJ
ROG
7KUHHSRVVLEOHH[SODQDWLRQV
KDYHEHHQVXJJHVWHG
WKH
IRU
UHSURGXFWLYH
DQGSRSXODWLRQ
IDLOXUH
GHFOLQHRI,VOH5R\
DOHZROYHV3HWHUVRQ .UXPHQDNHU
WKH
)LUVW
,VOH5R\DOHZROISRSXODWLRQ
KDVORQJEHHQFRQVLGHUHG
WR
EHUHJXODWHG
E\IRRGOHYHOV0HFK3HWHUVRQ
3HWHUVRQ
3DJH7KXVWKHGHFOLQHPLJKW
UHIOHFW
DGHFUHDVHLQSUH\DYDLODELOLW\
6HFRQGLVODQGSRSXOD
WLRQVPD\EHJUHDWO\
DIIHFWHG
E\GLVHDVHEHFDXVHRIWKHLU
VPDOOVL]HDQGODFNRIJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
ZKLFKPDNH
UHFRYHU\IURPHSL]RRWLFVOHVVOLNHO\*LOSLQ 6RXOH
2
%ULHQ(YHUPDQQ
7KHUHFHQWDSSHDU
LQ0LQQHVRWDDQG0LFKLJDQ
DQFHRIFDQLQHSDUYRYLUXV
GRJVFRLQFLGHVZLWKWKHGHFOLQHRI,VOH5R\DOHZROYHV
WKDWWKLVYLUXV
ZDVDSRVVLEOHVRXUFHRIPRU
VXJJHVWLQJ
3DJH)LQDOO\
WDOLW\
0HFKHWDO3HWHUVRQ
EHFDXVHJHQHWLFH[FKDQJHZLWKPDLQODQG
ZROYHVLVOLP
LWHG0HFK3HWHUVRQ
3DJHDQGDVVXPLQJ
WKDW
WKHHIIHFWLYH
VL]HRI,VOH5R\DOH
ZROYHVLV
SRSXODWLRQ
QRJUHDWHUWKDQWKHREVHUYHGWZRRUWKUHHEUHHGLQJ
KDYHSDVVHG
SDLUVDQGWKDWILYHWRVHYHQJHQHUDWLRQV
VLQFHZROYHVZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGRQWKHLVODQGDSSUR[L
KDVSUREDEO\
PDWHO\
RIJHQHWLFKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
EHHQORVW&URZ .LPXUD%DUWRQ &KDUOHV
ZRUWK 6XFKH[WUHPHORVVHVLQKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
DQGMXYHQLOHVXU
HIIHFWV
RQYLDELOLW\
PD\KDYHQHJDWLYH
%LRORJ\
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
0DWHULDOV
DQG0HWKRGV
6DPSOLQJ
'HVLJQ
:ROYHVZHUHOLYHFDSWXUHG
DWERWKHQGVRI,VOH5R\DOH
DQGLPPRELOL]HG
ZLWKDNHWDPLQH[\OD]LQH
FRPELQDWLRQ
.UHHJHUHWDO$FFEORRGVDPSOHZDVFRO
OHFWHGIRUGLVHDVHQXWULWLRQ
DQGJHQHWLFDQDO\VHV
DQG
HDFKLQGLYLGXDO
ZDVUDGLRFROODUHG
DQGWKHQUHOHDVHG
LQDQGUHVXOWHG
HIIRUWV
LQ
6SULQJIDOO
WUDSSLQJ
FDSWXUHDQGEORRGVDPSOLQJ
RIRIWKHUHPDLQLQJ
ZROYHVLQ0DUFK1RPRUWDOLW\
LQ
RUGHELOLWDWLQJ
MXULHVUHVXOWHGIURPWKHVHWUDSSLQJ
,QDGGL
DFWLYLWLHV
WLRQEORRGDQGRUJDQVDPSOHVRIPDLQODQG
ZROYHV
IURP
0DQLWRED
0LQQHVRWD
2QWDULRDQG4XHEHFZHUH
REWDLQHGWKURXJK
RWKHUJUD\
ZROIUHVHDUFKRUPDQDJH
PHQWSURJUDPV)LJ 7DEOH %ORRG VDPSOHVRI
ZROYHVIURP
FDSWLYHFRORQLHVDW'DOKRXVLH8QLYHUVLW\
+DOLID[1RYD6FRWLDDQGWKH-XOLDQ6FLHQFH&HQWHU
ZHUHREWDLQHGDVDUHIHUHQFH
-XOLDQ
IRUWKH
&DOLIRUQLD
OHYHORIJHQHWLFVLPLODULW\
H[SHFWHGDPRQJVLEOLQJV
7D
EOH7KH'DOKRXVLHVDPSOHFRQVLVWVRIILYHGHVFHQ
GDQWVIURP
DVLQJOHPDWHGSDLURQH)O LQGLYLGXDO
DQG
WZRVLESDLUVZLWKGLIIHUHQW
)OSDUHQWV
7KHDYHUDJHLQ
EUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQW
)RIWKHVHDQLPDOVLV7KH
-XOLDQ6FLHQFH&HQWHUVDPSOHFRQVLVWVRIVLEOLQJV
IURPPXOWLSOHOLWWHUVRID VLQJOHSDUHQWDOSDLU) 3URWHLQ
(OHFWURSKRUHVLV
ZDVGRQHRQDVXEVHWRIWKH
3URWHLQHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
WRWDODYDLODEOHZROIVDPSOH7DEOH5HGFHOOVLVRODWHG
IURP
ZKROHEORRGRIZROYHVZHUHVRQLFDWHGLQEXIIHU
DQGVXEMHFWHGWRWKUHHIUHH]HWKDZ
F\FOHV:D\QH
2
%ULHQ$IWHU
DKLJKVSHHGVSLQ XORIWKH
RI
,VOH
5R\DOH
:ROYHV
*HQHWLFV
:D\QH
HW
DO
!
U
,
D
LE
48(%(&
217$5,2
aaG
H
0$1,72%$ ,G
]1
YW
#
9
H
HO
B
a
?
0,11(627$
)LJXUH0DSRIORFDOLWLHVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&DQDGD ZKHUHEORRGRURUJDQVDPSOHVRIJUD\ZROYHV&D
VHH7DEOH
QLVOXSXVZHUHREWDLQHG)RUORFDOLW\LGHQWLWLHV
DQG
VXSHUQDWDQW
ZDVXVHGLQSURWHLQHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
$'$
$.
VWDLQLQJ
RIVROXEOHEORRGSURWHLQV
$&3
&$&$7',$',$(6(6*3'*3,*65
3(3
0'+03,133(3%
+%+(;$
,'+/'+%
&3(3'62'7)DQG;'+*HRUJH:D\QH
VWDLQ
DIWHU
2
%ULHQ*HOVZHUHVFRUHGLPPHGLDWHO\
IRUODWHUFRPSDULVRQV
GHYHORSPHQW
DQGIUR]HQ
DQGKHWHUR]\JRV
(VWLPDWHV
RIJHQHWLFSRO\PRUSKLVP
LW\RILVODQGDQGPDLQODQG
ZROYHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIURP
WKHDOOR]\PHGDWD1HL 'HYLDWLRQVIURP
+DUG\:HLQEHUJ
HTXLOLEULXP
ZHUHWHVWHGXVLQJWKH&KL
VTXDUHWHVW+DUWO7KHVWDQGDUGL]HG
YDULDQFHLQ
DOOHOH IUHTXHQFLHVDPRQJSRSXODWLRQV)67:ULJKW
ZDVFDOFXODWHGIRUWKHVLQJOHDQGPXOWLSOH
DOOHOH
FDVHXVLQJPRGLILFDWLRQV
GHVFULEHGLQ1HL DQG
1HLDQG&KHVVHU :HLUDQG&RFNHUKDP
V
7DEOH /RFDOLW\
RIJUD\ZROIVDPSOHVVHH)LJ *) JHQHWLFILQJHUSULQWLQJ
VDPSOHVL]HQDQDO\VHVDQGFRQWULEXWRU
/RFDOLW\
Q
D 5LGLQJ0RXQWDLQ130DQLWRED
E 0LQQHVRWD 1RUWKZHVW2QWDULR
1RUWKHDVW0LQQHVRWD
1RUWKHUQ0LQQHVRWD
9R\DJHXUV130LQQHVRWD
1RUWKZHVW2QWDULR
F ,VOH5R\DOH130LFKLJDQ
G &HQWUDO2QWDULR
7KXQGHU%D\
$UPVWURQJ6WDWLRQ
1LSLJRQ
H 4XHEHF (DVW2QWDULR
$OJRQTXLQ3URYLQFLDO3DUN
6RXWKHUQ4XHEHF
/DXUHQWLGHV3URYLQFLDO3DUN
I &DSWLYHFRORQLHV
'DOKRXVLH 8QLYHUVLW\
16
-XOLDQ6FLHQFH &HQWHU&$
7RWDO
$QDO\VHV
&RQWULEXWRU
DOOR]\PHVPW'1$
/&DUE\Q
DOOR]\PHVPW'1$*)
DOOR]\PHVPW'1$
DOOR]\PHVPW'1$
PW'1$
DOOR]\PHVPW'1$*)
' 0HFK
%3DXO
3*RJDQ
PW'1$
PW'1$
PW'1$
53HWHUVRQ
53HWHUVRQ
53HWHUVRQ
PW'1$
PW'1$
PW'1$
*)RUEHV
)3RWYLQ
)3RWYLQ
*)
*)
-5\DQ
3.HQLV
53HWHUVRQ
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
RI,VOH5R\DOH
*HQHWFV
:ROYHV
HWDO
:D\QH
7DEOH $OOHOH
IUHTXHQFLHV
E\ORFDOLW\
DQGSUREDELOLW\
&KLVTXDUH
IRU
GLIIHUHQFHV
IRU
IUHTXHQF\
LVODQG
DQGSRROHG
)WKHWD
PDQODQG
VDPSOHV
2EVHUYHG
+HW2%
DQGH[SHFWHG
+DUG\:HLQEHUJ
+HW(;
KHWHUR]\JRVLW\
DQGWKHLU
VWDQGDUG
HUURUV
6(DYHUDJHG
RYHU
ORFLDUHSURYLGHG
6DPSOH
VL]HJLYHQ
LQSDUHQWKHVLV
EHORZ
ODEHOV
ORFDOLW\
,VODQG
/RFXV
',$,
0'+
03,
13
3(3%
0HDQ)67
FO
0DLQODQG
EO
E
$OOHOH
E
3RROHG
SUREDELOLW\
$
%
$
%
$
%
$
%
$
%
+HW2%
6(
+HW(;
6(
RI)67
ZDVDOVRFDOFX
NQRZQDVWKHWD
DSSUR[LPDWLRQ
GHYHORSHGE\/HVOLH
SURJUDP
ODWHGXVLQJWKHFRPSXWHU
LQDOOHOH
RIGLIIHUHQFHV
VLJQLILFDQFH
6WDWLVWLFDO
&KL
IUHTXHQF\
YDOXHVZDVHYDOXDWHGZLWKDPRGLILHG
VTXDUHWHVW:RUNPDQ1LVZDQGHU7KHVWDQ
YDOXHVIRUWKH,VOH
GDUGHUURURIPHDQKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
IRU
ILQLWH
VDPSOHVL]HXVLQJ
5R\DOH
ZROYHVZDVFRUUHFWHG
WKHIRUPXOD
>1Q1VHZKHUH1LVSRSXODWLRQ
HUURU
:DQ
VL]HQLVVDPSOHVL]HDQGVHLVWKHVWDQGDUG
DQDO\VHVZHUH
QDFRWW :DQQDFRWW 6WDWLVWLFDO
6HODQGHU
GRQHZLWKWKHSURJUDP
%,26<66ZRIIRUG
IRU
KHWHUR]\JRVLW\
WHVWV
PD\QRWEHUREXVW
3DUDPHWULF
GDWDLIOHVVWKDQIRUW\
ORFLDUHXVHGDQGKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
ZH XVHGD
YDOXHVDUHORZ$UFKLH 7KHUHIRUH
LIWKHKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
VLPXODWLRQ
WRGHWHUPLQH
FRPSXWHU
WKDQ
ORZHULQWKHLVODQGLQGLYLGXDOV
ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\
7KHVLPX
LQWKHPDLQODQG
SRSXODWLRQ
LQGLYLGXDOV
RILQGLYLGXDOV
DWUDQ
VDPSOLQJ
LWHUDWLYH
ODWLRQLQYROYHG
GRPIURPWKHFRPELQHGPDLQODQGDQGLVODQGVDPSOH
RIWKHVDPSOHGLQ
WLPHV7KHKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
EHWZHHQWKLVKHWHUR]\JRV
GLYLGXDOVDQGWKHGLIIHUHQFH
ZHUH
LQGLYLGXDOV
LW\YDOXHDQGWKDWRIWKHUHPDLQLQJ
7KHQXPEHU
RIVDPSOHVRI
FDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKLWHUDWLRQ
YDOXHVHTXDOWRRUOHVVWKDQ
WKDWKDGKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
WKDWREVHUYHGLQWKHDFWXDOLVODQGVDPSOHVHUYHGDVD
PHDVXUHRIVLJQLILFDQFH
'1$
0LWRFKRQGULDO
ZKLWHEORRGFHOOV
7RWDOJHQRPLF'1$ZDVLVRODWHGIURP
IURP
ZKROHEORRGRUIURP
RUJDQVDPSOHVVHH
VHSDUDWHG
:D\QHHWDO 7KH'1$VROXWLRQZDVHWKDQRO
LQDYROXPHRI7(EXIIHU
DQGUHVXVSHQGHG
SUHFLSLWDWHG
%LRORJ\
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
)VW
&KLVTXDUH
WRDILQDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\
XJO
7ZRWRXJ
RI'1$ZHUHGLJHVWHGVHSDUDWHO\
ZLWKWKH
IROORZLQJ UHVWULFWLRQHQGRQXFOHDVHV$FF,$SD,
%DP+,%F,O%J,O%J,,,%VW(,,
%VW8,&OD,'UD,(FR5O
(FR59
+KD,+LQF,,+LQG,,,1FR,6FDO6VW,
6WX,
;ED,
DQG;PQ,$IWHU
HOHFWURSKRUHVLV
WKURXJKDJDURVH
WR1\ORQPHPEUDQHVDQG
JHOV'1$ZDVWUDQVIHUUHG
SUREHGZLWKFORQHGUDGLRODEHOHG
PW'1$
RULJLQDOO\
LVR
ODWHGIURPWKHGRPHVWLFGRJ$IWHU
DXWRUDGLRJUDSK\
IUDJPHQWV
ZHUHVL]HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHPROHFXODUVWDQ
GDUGWKDW
ZDVUXQRQHDFKJHO/DPGD'1$
+LQ',,,FXW
PL[HGZLWK; '1$+DH,,, FXW)UDJPHQW
VL]HV
ZHUHVXPPHGIRUHDFKLQGLYLGXDOWRGHWHUPLQH
LIWKH
PW'1$
HQWLUH
JHQRPHZDVUHSUHVHQWHG
DSSUR[LPDWHO\
NEDQGWRFKHFNIRUGHOHWLRQVRULQVHUWLRQV
DQG
KHWHURSODVP\
FI'HQVPRUHHWDO%RXUVRWHWDO
ZDVDVVHVVHGRQWKHEDVLVRI
)UDJPHQW
LGHQWLW\
RIIUDJPHQWV
FRPLJUDWLRQ
VHSDUDWHGLQWKHVDPHJHO
7KHUHVWULFWLRQIUDJPHQW
SDWWHUQV
IRUHDFKLQGLYLGXDO
IRU
WKHUHVWULFWLRQ
ZHUHXVHGWRGHILQH
FRP
HQ]\PHV
SRVLWHPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
/DQVPDQHWDO
$YLVH:D\QHHWDO5HVWULF
%HUPLQJKDP
WLRQVLWH
ZHUHUHDGLO\HVWLPDWHG
GLIIHUHQFHV
IURP
IUDJ
PHQWSDWWHUQV
EHFDXVHDOOJHQRW\SHV
GLIIHUHG
E\WKHLQ
IHUUHG
ORVVRUJDLQRIRQO\RQHRUWZRUHVWULFWLRQ
VLWHVIRU
HDFK UHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PH$SHUJHQRW\SHSUHVHQFH
DEVHQFHPDWUL[
RIUHVWULFWLRQ
VLWHVZDVXVHGWRFDOFXODWH
DPD[LPXP
WUHHUHODWLQJ
PW'1$JHQRW\SHV
SDUVLPRQ\
ZLWKWKHEUDQFKDQGERXQG
RSWLRQLQWKH3$83SUR
YHUVLRQE\'DYLG6ZRIIRUG
JUDP
7KHSHU
FHQWQXFOHRWLGH
ZDVFDOFXODWHGEH
VHTXHQFHGLYHUJHQFH
WZHHQJHQRW\SHVXVLQJWKHVLWHPHWKRG1HL /L
:D\QH
HWDO
*HQHWLFV
RI
,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV 0XOWLORFXV
$QDO\VLV
)RUWKUHHORFL',$0'+DQG13DOOHOHIUH
TXHQF\
GLIIHUHQFHV
EHWZHHQPDLQODQG
DQGLVODQGZROYHV
*HQRPLF'1$IURPFDQLGVZDVGLJHVWHGZLWKWKHUH
ZHUH
VLJQLILFDQW
7DEOH
3 ,Q
&KLVTXDUH
WHVW
VWULFWLRQ
HQGRQXFOHDVH+LQI,DQGSUREHGZLWKK\SHU
FRQWUDVW
DPRQJ
W
KUHH
P
DLQODQG
SRSXODWLRQV
WKDWZHUH
YDULDEOHPLQLVDWHLOLWH
'1$FORQHDVRXWOLQHGE\
VXUYH\HG
QRVLJQLILFDQW
GLIIHUHQFHV
LQ
DOOHOH
IUHTXHQFLHV
HWDO DQG*LOEHUW
-HIIUH\V
HWDO 6HYHUDO
H[SRVXUHVRIDXWRUDGLRJUDSKV
ZHUHPDGHYDU\LQJ
IURP ZHUHGHWHFWHG7KXVLWDSSHDUVWKDWERWKDOOHOHIUH
TXHQF\FKDQJHVDQGSUREDEOHDOOHOHORVVKDYHRFFXUUHG
WRGD\VWRDFFXUDWHO\
VFRUHEDQGVRIGLIIHULQJ
LQ
LQWKHLVODQGSRSXODWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHILYHWRVHYHQ
$OOEDQGVLQWKHPROHFXODU
WHQVLW\
RIWR
ZHLJKW
UDQJH
UHPDLQLQJ
,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVQHHGWREHVXUYH\HGWR
NEZHUHVFRUHGWKRVHVKRZLQJ
DVLPLODU
PROHFXODU
GHWHUPLQH
ZLWK
FHUWDLQW\
WKHDEVROXWHQXPEHU
RIDOOHOHV
ZHLJKWDQGLQWHQVLW\
ZHUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHLGHQWLFDO
ORVW
)LJ 2QO\LQGLYLGXDOV
RQWKHVDPHJHOZHUHFRP
$VLQGLFDWHGE\D&KLVTXDUH
WHVWJHQRW\SH
IUHTXHQ
SDUHG7KHGLIIHUHQFH
YDOXH' EHWZHHQWKHUHVWULFWLRQ
FLHVZHUHQRW
LQ+DUG\:HLQEHUJ
HTXLOLEULXP
RXWRI
IUDJPHQW
RIWZRLQGLYLGXDOV
SDWWHUQV
ZDVFDOFXODWHGDV
WLPHV
I
RU
Z
KLFK
D
SRSXODWLRQ
L
VSRO\PRUSKLF
IRUDQ
WKHQXPEHU
RIIUDJPHQWV
WKDW
GLIIHUHG
EHWZHHQWKHWZR
7KHVHGHYLDWLRQV
LQGLYLGXDO
ORFXV
S
ZHUH
GXH
LQGLYLGXDOV
GLYLGHGE\WKHWRWDOQXPEHURIIUDJPHQWV
WRKHWHUR]\JRWH
GHILFLHQFLHV
DWWZR
0'+DQG
ORFL
13
7KHDYHUDJHSHUFHQWGLIIHUHQFH
$3'LVWKHDYHUDJHRI
LQZROYHVDWORFDOLW\
E
L
)LJ7KLVZDVFRQVLVWHQW
DOO'YDOXHVIRU
HDFKSRSXODWLRQ
WLPHV*LOEHUW
HWDO
ZLWKWKH:DKOXQG
HIIHFW
DQGWKXVPD\UHIOHFW
SRSXODWLRQ
%HFDXVHRIWKHQRQLQGHSHQGHQFH
RISDLUZLVH'
VXEGLYLVLRQ
RQDPLFURJHRJUDSKLF
VFDOH6XFKVXEGLYL
YDOXHVDQXQELDVHGHVWLPDWLRQ
RIWKHVWDQGDUG
HUURU
PD\
VLRQPD\LQGLFDWHDODFNRIJHQHIORZDPRQJFORVHO\
EHGHILQHG
DV>' '; 'Q '@ZKHUH
VLWXDWHG
ZROISDFNV
Q PHDQQXPEHU
RIUHVWULFWLRQ
IUDJPHQWV
SHULQGLYLG
7KHDYHUDJH
)67DQGWKHWDYDOXHVIRUFRPSDULVRQV
RI
XDODQG'LVWKHPHDQRIDOOSDLUZLVH'YDOXHV/\QFK
LVODQG
ZROYHVDQGWKHSRROHGVDPSOHRIPDLQODQG
ZROYHV
DUHQHDUDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
7DEOH 7KXV
DSSUR[LPDWHO\
RIWKHYDULDQFHLQDOOHOHIUH
TXHQF\LVGXHWREHWZHHQSRSXODWLRQ
7KLV
GLIIHUHQFHV
5HVXOWV
WKDW
VXJJHVWV
JLYHQWKHVKRUW
SHULRGRILVRODWLRQ
IRXQGHU
$OLR]\PH
9DULDELOLW\
DQGGULIW
HIIHFW
KDYHUHVXOWHGLQVLJQLILFDQW
GLIIHUHQWLD
WLRQ
EHWZHHQPDLQODQG
DQGLVODQGSRSXODWLRQV
7KLVUH
)LYHRIWKHORFLH[DPLQHGZHUHSRO\PRUSKLF
VXOWDOVRLQGLFDWHVWKDWOHYHOVRIJHQHIORZDUHORZ
LQPDLQODQG
ZROYHVZKHUHDVRQO\WZRRIWKHVHORFL
7KHXQELDVHGHVWLPDWH
RIDOOR]\PHKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
LQ
LQWKHVDPSOHRI,VOH5R\DOH
ZHUHYDULDEOH
ZROYHV7DEOH
,VOH5R\DOH
ZROYHVZDVDSSUR[LPDWHO\
KDOI
WKDW
RI
WKHPDLQODQG
ZROYHV7DEOH7KLVYDOXHRUORZHUZDV
& H
DQ
'DOKRXVLH
,513
H
IRXQGLQRQO\RIUDQGRPVDPSOLQJV
RIVHYHQ
LQGLYLGXDOVIURPWKHWRWDOVDPSOHSRSXODWLRQ3 ,QQRVDPSOHLWHUDWLRQ
ZDVWKHGLIIHUHQFH
LQKHW
NE
YDOXHVJUHDWHU
HUR]\JRVLW\
RUHTXDOWRWKDWREVHUYHGLQ
WKHDFWXDOVDPSOH7KLVRFFXUHGVRLQIUHTXHQWO\
EHFDXVH
WKH
VHYHQ,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVZHUHIL[HGIRUWKHVDPH
NE
Y
DOOHOHDWWKUHHORFL',$0'+DQG03,7DEOH
6XFKFRLQFLGHQWPRQRPRUSKLVP
LVH[WUHPHO\
UDUHLQ
RXUVDPSOHRIPDLQODQG
ZROYHV+HQFHZHUHJDUGWKH
RIPDLQODQG
KHWHUR]\JRVLW\
DQGLVODQGZROYHVDVVLJQLI
GLIIHUHQW
LFDQWO\
:
V;HVH
PW'1$
9DULDELOLW\
)LJXUH ([DPSOHDXWRUDGLRJUDPRIJHQRPLF'1$
PDLQODQG
&OXO ,VOH5R\DOH,513DQG
'DOERXVLH ZROYHVGLJHVWHGZL
WK
DQGSUREHG
+PQIO
ZLWE
FORQH
MHLIUH\V
1LQHPW'1$
ZHUHGHILQHG
JHQRW\SHV
E\UHVWULFWLRQVLWH
RILVODQGDQGPDLQODQG
DQDO\VLV
ZROYHV7DEOH2QO\
RQHJHQRW\SH
: LVIRXQGLQ,VOH5R\DOHZROYHV6LJ
WKLVJHQRW\SH
QLILFDQWO\
LVIRXQGRQO\LQRQHZROILQD
WRWDOVDPSOHRIPDLQODQG
ZROYHVDQGLVIURP
ORFDOLW\
NPQRUWKHDVW
GDSSUR[LPDWHO\
RI,VOH5R\DOH)LJ
7DEOH$PRQJ0LQQHVRWDDQG1RUWKZHVW
2QWDULR
ZROYHVEOE IRXUJHQRW\SHVDUHIRXQGWKUHHDUH
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
RI,VOH5R\DOH
*HQHWFV
:ROYHV
HWDO
:D\QH
7DEOH )UHTXHQFLHVDQGVDPSOHVVL]HLQSDUHQWKHVLVRIPW'1$
RIZROYHVDWORFDOLWLHVLQ0DQLWRED0LQQHVRWD2QWDULRDQG
JHQRW\SHV
FLV,VOH5R\DOHV
4XHEHFVHH)LJ/RFDOLW\
PW'1$JHQRW\SHV
/RFDOLW\
D
:L
:
:
:
F
GOG
EOE
HOH
:
-
:-
:
7RWDO
:
:
D0LWRFKRQGULDO '1$JHQRW\SHV
DUHQXPEHUHG
DVGHILQHGLQ/HKPDQHWDO ,QSUHVV
UHODWLYHO\
DEXQGDQW
:L:DQG:DQGRQHLVUDUH
: ,QHDVW2QWDULRDQG4XHEHF ZROYHVHOH
WKUHHPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
H[LVW:2:OO DQG:
WKDWDUHQRWIRXQGLQ0LQQHVRWD
RU1RUWKZHVW
2QWDULR
VXJJHVWLQJJHRJUDSKLFSDUWLWLRQLQJ6LPLODUO\WKH
PW'1$JHQRW\SHIRXQGLQ0DQLWRED: LVQRW
SUHVHQWLQZROYHVDWWKHRWKHUORFDOLWLHV
6HTXHQFHGLYHUJHQFH
GDWDLQGLFDWHWKDWWKH
,VOH5R\
DOHZROIJHQRW\SH
LVFORVHO\UHODWHG
WRVHYHUDOJHQRW\SHV
RQWKHPDLQODQG
IRXQG
)LJ7DEOH7KH,VOH5R\DOH
ZROIJHQRW\SH
: LVRQHUHVWULFWLRQ
VLWHRUDSSUR[L
LQ'1$VHTXHQFH IURPWKH
PDWHO\ GLIIHUHQW
PW'1$
LQZROYHVLQ0LQQHVRWD
DQG
JHQRW\SH
:IRXQG
2QWDULR,WLVOHVVWKDQ GLIIHUHQW
LQPW'1$VH
TXHQFHIURPPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
:::DQG
:7DEOH +RZHYHUWKH,VOH5R\DOHJHQRW\SH
LV
GUDPDWLFDOO\
GLIIHUHQW
ZLWKDSSUR[LPDWHO\ VH
TXHQFHGLYHUJHQFH
IURP
WKHUHPDLQLQJ
ZROIJHQRW\SHV
IRXQGRQWKHPDLQODQG
:,:DQG:%DVHGRQD
VWXG\RIFR\RWHPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
/HKPDQHWDOLQ
SUHVVZHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKLVGLIIHUHQFH
UHIOHFWV
LQWHU
VSHFLILF
K\EULGL]DWLRQ
EHWZHHQZROYHVDQGFR\RWHVVR
ZHLQFOXGHGVDPSOHVRIFR\RWHVIURP
2QWDULR
0LQ
QHVRWD
DQG0LFKLJDQ
LQWKHUHVWULFWLRQ
VLWHDQDO\VLV
7KH
PD[LPXP
WUHHLQ)LJXUHFOHDUO\VXJJHVWV
SDUVLPRQ\
ZROIPW'1$
WKDW
JHQRW\SHV
:WKURXJK
:LQFOXGLQJ
WKH,VOH5R\DOHZROIJHQRW\SH
:DUHFORVHO\UHODWHG
WRRULQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH
IURP
PW'1$JHQRW\SHV
IRXQG
LQFR\RWHV7KXVLQ0LQQHVRWDQ
DQG&DQDGLDQZROYHV
WKHUHDUHWZRGLVWLQFW
JHQRW\SH
JURXSVRQHLQFOXGLQJ
WKUHHPW'1$JHQRW\SHVWKDWDUHWUXHZROIJHQRW\SHV
:,:DQG:DQGWKHRWKHULQFOXGLQJ
JHQRW\SHV
GHULYHG
IURP
K\EULGL]DWLRQ
ZLWKFR\RWHVVXFKDVWKH,VOH
5R\DOHJHQRW\SH
: DQGDOOZROIJHQRW\SHV
IRXQGLQ
4XHEHF::LO DQG:
0XOWLORFXV
$QDO\VLV
7KHUHVWULFWLRQIUDJPHQW
SURILOHV
DQG$3'YDOXHVGLIIHU
VXEVWDQWLDOO\
EHWZHHQUHODWHGDQGXQUHODWHG
LQGLYLGXDOV
:,
:
ZLR
:2
:
:
[:
,VOH5R\DOH
&O:,OO
&:
:
6HTXHQFH 'LYHUJHQFH 2R
)LJXUH$PRVWSDUVLPRQLRXVWUHHRIJUD\ZROIDQGFR\RWHPW'1$
JHQRW\SHV7KHWUHHLVURRWHGDWWKHPLG
SRLQWRIWKHORQJHVW
SDWKFRQQHFWLQJ
LQGH[ &RGHV:O
DQ\SDLURIWD[D 7UHHOHQJWK FRQVLVWHQF\
GHULYHG
:
SXUHZROIJHQRW\SHV
::ZROIJHQRW\SHV
IURPFR\RWHV:LVWKH,VOH5R\DOHJHQRW\SH&O
&FR\RWHJHQRW\SHV
IRXQGLQFR\RWHV
IURP0LQQHVRWD2QWDULRDQG0LFKLJDQVHH7DEOH
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
:D\QH
HWDO
RI,VOH5R\DOH
*HQHWLFV
:ROYHV
NQRZQWREHDVFORVHO\
)LJ7DEOH ,QGLYLGXDOV
UHODWHGDVVLEOLQJV
IURP
WKHFDSWLYHFRORQLHVDW'DOKRX
VLH8QLYHUVLW\
DQGWKH-XOLDQ
6FLHQFH&HQWHUKDYH$3'
YDOXHVRI DQG UHVSHF
WLYHO\
%\FRQWUDVW
SUHVXPHG
XQUHODWHG
KDYH
LQGLYLGXDOV
DQ$3'YDOXHRI 7KHUDQJHRIGLIIHUHQFH
YDOXHVIRUXQUHODWHGDQGUHODWHGLQGLYLGXDOV
GRHVQRW
RYHUODS7KH,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVKDYHDQ$3'RI
DQGDUDQJHRIGLIIHUHQFH
YDOXHVWKDW
DUHVLPLODU
WRWKRVHRIZROYHVUHODWHGDVVLEOLQJV
7KHVHUHVXOWV
PD\
LQDFOXVWHUDQDO\VLV
EHYLHZHGJUDSKLFDOO\
LQZKLFKLQ
GLYLGXDOV
DUHJURXSHGDFFRUGLQJ
WRWKHLU
GLIIHU
SDLUZLVH
HQFHYDOXHV)LJ7KH,VOH5R\DOH
ZROYHVDUHJURXSHG
LQDWLJKWFOXVWHUMXVWDVDUHZROYHVLQWKH'DOKRXVLH
ZLWKUHVSHFW
FRORQ\7KXV
PLQLVDWHOOLWH
WRK\SHUYDULDEOH
ORFLWKH,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDSSHDUJHQHWLFDOO\
DVFORVH
DVVLEOLQJV
'LVFXVVLRQ
*HQHWLF
RI,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV
9DULDELOLW\
,QLVODQGSRSXODWLRQV
JHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
LVGHFUHDVHG
WKURXJK
IRXQGHU
HIIHFW
DQGJHQHWLFGULIW
:ULJKW
$OOHQGRUI
7KHORVVGXHWRWKHIRUPHU
UHIOHFWV
WKH
QXPEHU
RIIRXQGLQJ
DQGWKHLU
LQGLYLGXDOV
JHQHWLFFRP
7KHGHFUHDVHGXHWRGULIW
UHIOHFWV
WKHLQWULQVLF
SRVLWLRQ
JURZWKUDWHDQGWKHKDUPRQLFPHDQRIWKHHIIHFWLYH
SRSXODWLRQVL]HRYHUWLPH:ULJKW1HLHWDO
$QDSSUR[LPDWH
IRU
WKHH[SHFWHGORVV
H[SUHVVLRQ
LQJHQHWLFKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
LVJLYHQE\+Q O12
1 1Q+2ZKHUH1HTXDOVWKH
QXPEHU
RIHIIHFWLYH
DWJHQHUDWLRQ
QDQG+RLV
LQGLYLGXDOV
WKHKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
RIWKHDQFHVWUDO
SRSXODWLRQ
&URZ
.LPXUD%DUWRQ &KDUOHVZRUWK 7KXV
JLYHQILYHWRVHYHQJHQHUDWLRQV
DQGWZRRUWKUHH
EUHHG
LQJSDLUVSHUJHQHUDWLRQ
WKHH[SHFWHGORVVLQKHWHUR]\
JRVLW\UDQJHVIURP +RZHYHUWKHVWRFKDVWLF
YDULDQFH
RIWKHH[SHFWHGORVVPD\EHODUJH/DF\
7KHDFWXDOORVVLQKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
RIWKHLVODQGSRSXOD
WLRQUHODWLYH
WRZROYHVRQWKHPDLQODQG
DVPHDVXUHG
E\
LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\
DOOR]\PHHOHFWURSKRUHVLV
7KXV
,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVKDYHUHWDLQHGDVLJQLILFDQW
SURSRU
WLRQRIWKHYDULDELOLW\
IRXQGDPRQJPDLQODQG
ZROYHV
7KHDPRXQWWKH\KDYHORVWLVFRQVLVWHQW
ZLWKWKDWH[
SHFWHGJLYHQFRPSOHWHLVRODWLRQDQGDVPDOOHIIHFWLYH
SRSXODWLRQVL]H
7KHH[SHFWHGGHFUHDVHLQ$3'YDOXHVZLWKLQEUHHGLQJ
LQWKHLVODQG
SRSXODWLRQ
LVGLIILFXOW
WRGHWHUPLQH
ZLWKRXW
VWXG\RI$3'YDOXHVRIFDSWLYHZROYHVXQGHUGLIIHUHQW
RIFORVHEUHHGLQJ
5HFHQWVWXG\
V\VWHPV
RIVXFKSRSX
LQFKLFNHQV
ODWLRQV
DQRQOLQHDU
VXJJHVWV
EH
UHODWLRQVKLS
WZHHQEDQGVKDULQJ
DQGWKHLQEUHHGLQJ
)
FRHIILFLHQW
HWDO7KHREVHUYHGGHFOLQHLQ$3'IRU
.XKQOHLQ
,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVLVUHODWLYH
WRWKH$3'RIPDLQ
ODQGZROYHV7DEOH 7KLVGHFOLQHLVRQO\VOLJKWO\
JUHDWHU
WKDQWKDWRIVLEOLQJ
ZROYHVLQWKH-XOLDQ
6FLHQFH
&HQWHURUFORVHO\UHODWHGZROYHVLQWKH'DOKRX
VLHFRORQ\DQGVXJJHVWV
RQO\DIHZJHQHUDWLRQV
RI
LQEUHHGLQJ
KDYHWDNHQ
SODFHIROORZLQJ
WKHLQLWLDO
IRXQG
LQJ
6HYHUDOVWXGLHVKDYHVXJJHVWHGDOLQNEHWZHHQOHYHOV
RIKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
DQGILWQHVV
EXWWKHVSHFLILF
WUDLWV
FRU
UHVSRQGHQFH
EHWZHHQDJLYHQORVVLQKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
DQG
D GURSLQILWQHVVSUREDEO\GHSHQGVRQWKHVSHFLHV
VSHFLILFDELOLW\
WRZLWKVWDQG
LQEUHHGLQJ
6KLHOGV
7HPSOHWRQ5HHG7HPSOHWRQ5DOOVHWDO
7KHFRHIILFLHQW
RILQEUHHGLQJ
LQFUHDVHVDWDUDWH
JLYHQE\GHOWD) 1
ZKHUH1LVWKHHIIHFWLYH
SRSX
ODWLRQVL]H)DOFRQHU$VVXPLQJ
WZRWRWKUHHUH
SURGXFWLYH
SDLUVLQWKHLVODQGSRSXODWLRQ
GHOWD)LVDS
SUR[LPDWHO\
SHUJHQHUDWLRQ
'DWDIURP
GRPHVWLF
PDPPDOV
VKRZWKDW
WUDLWV
UHODWHGWRILWQHVV
VXFKDVOLWWHU
VL]HPD\GHFUHDVHZLWKDLQFUHDVHLQ))DO
FRQHU6LPLODUO\
WKHDYHUDJHLQFUHDVHLQMXYHQLOH
PRUWDOLW\
FDXVHGE\SDUHQWRIIVSULQJ
LQ
RUIXOOVLE
PDWLQJ
]RRPDPPDOV
ZDV 5DOOVHWDO 7KXVLQ
EUHHGLQJ
HIIHFWV
DUHFRQVLVWHQW
ZLWKWKHREVHUYHGVPDOO
OLWWHUV
DQGORZQXPEHU
RISXSVWKDW
VXUYLYH
WRPRQWKV
RIDJH3HWHUVRQ3DJH
+RZHYHUUHFHQWEHKDYLRUDOREVHUYDWLRQVRI\RXQJ
DGXOW,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVVXJJHVWWKDWWKH\PD\IDLOWR
SDLUERQG
VXFFHVVIXOO\
3HWHUVRQ 3DJH3HWHU
VRQXQSXEOLVKHG
GDWD7KHLUIDLOXUH
WRSDLUERQG
DQG
UHSURGXFHPD\LQGLFDWHWKDWWKH\UHFRJQL]HHDFKRWKHU
DVVLEOLQJV
DQGDUHH[KLELWLQJ
LQFHVWDYRLGDQFH
EHKDYLRU
$VSHFXODWLYHVFHQDULRLVWKDWLQLWLDOO\
DIWHU
VHYHUDOOLW
WHUV
ZHUHERUQWRWKHIRXQGLQJ
SDLU
EUHHGLQJ
SDLUV
ZHUH
HVWDEOLVKHG
WKHSDLULQJ
WKURXJK
RIWKHLURIIVSULQJ
6XFK
SDLULQJ
PD\KDYHEHHQIDFLOLWDWHG
RIRII
E\WKHPDWLQJ
VSULQJ
IURP
OLWWHUV
VHSDUDWHGE\VHYHUDO\HDUVVXFKWKDW
WZRSRWHQWLDO
PDWHVPLJKW
QRWUHFRJQL]HHDFKRWKHUDV
VLEOLQJV
WKHSRSXODWLRQERWWOHQHFN
6XEVHTXHQWO\
RI
ZROYHVLQPD\KDYHUHVXOWHGLQWKHSUHVHQWSRS
XODWLRQGHVFHQGLQJIURPD VLQJOHRUVHYHUDOFORVHO\
VSDFHGOLWWHUVRIRQH PDWHGSDLU3HWHUVRQ 3DJH
7KXVWKH\PD\UHFRJQL]HHDFKRWKHUDVVLEOLQJV
DQGIDLOWRLQWHUEUHHGGXH WRSUHPDWLQJEHKDYLRUDO
PHFKDQLVPV
5HODWLRQVKLS
RI,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV
WR0DLQODQG
:ROYHV
0LWRFKRQGULDO
'1$UHVWULFWLRQVLWH
LVXVHIXO
IRU
DQDO\VLV
GRFXPHQWLQJ
SDWWHUQVRIPLFURJHRJUDSKLF
GLIIHUHQWLD
WLRQ0RULW]HWDO$YLVHHWDO7KHPW'1$
VHTXHQFHRIPDPPDOV
HYROYHVUDSLGO\
ILYHWRWHQWLPHV
IDVWHUWKDQWKHDYHUDJHQXFOHDUJHQH%URZQHWDO
VXFKWKDW
RIWHQ
LQWKHSUHGRP
SRSXODWLRQV
GLIIHU
LQDQFHRIPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
JHRJUDSKLFSDUWLWLRQLQJ
*HQRW\SHVIURPGLIIHUHQW
ORFDOLWLHVFDQRIWHQEHFRQ
QHFWHGLQD QHWZRUNUHIOHFWLQJPLJUDWLRQSDWWHUQV
DPRQJSRSXODWLRQVHJ/DQVPDQ
HWDO$YLVHHW
&RQVHUYDWLRQ %LRORJ\
9ROXPH 1R 0DUFK ,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV
*HQHWLFV
RI
HWDO
:D\QH
RIVKDUHG
7DEOH 3HUFHQW
VHTXHQFH
GLYHUJHQFH
DERYHGLDJRQDO
DQGIUDFWLRQ
UHVWULFWLRQ
VLWHVEHORZGLDJRQDO
EHWZHHQ
ZROI
DQGFR\RWH
PW'1$
JHQRW\SHV
:ROYHV
::
&DQLV
OXSXV
DQGFR\RWHV
&&&DQLV
ODWDQV$VWHULVN
LQGLFDWHV
ZROI
PW'1$
JHQRW\SHV
RIFR\RWH
LQEROGLQGLFDWH
RUUHVWULFWLRQVLWH
RUFR\RWHUHODWHG
ZROI
RULJLQ
9DOXHV
VHTXHQFH
GLIIHUHQFHV
EHWZHHQ
FR\RWH
PW'1$
JHQRW\SHV
:LVWKH
,VOH5R\DOH
ZROI
JHQRW\SH
:,
:L
:
:
:
:
:
:
:&
:&
&
:
:
:
:
IHZVWXGLHVKDYHGHDOW
DO +RZHYHUUHODWLYHO\
VXFKDVZROYHVZKLFK
ZLWKKLJKO\
PRELOHYHUWHEUDWHV
SRWHQWLDOO\
GLVSHUVHRYHUORQJGLVWDQFHVLQVHDUFKRI
LQJHQRW\SHIUH
PDWHV0HFK 7KXVVLPLODULW\
DQG1RUWKZHVW
2Q
TXHQFLHVDWORFDOLWLHVLQ0LQQHVRWD
FDSDELOLWLHV
WDULRPLJKW
EHH[SHFWHGJLYHQWKHGLVSHUVDO
RIZROYHV+RZHYHUWKHDSSHDUDQFHRIXQLTXHFR\RWH
LQHDVW2QWDULRDQG4XHEHFZROYHV
GHULYHGJHQRW\SHV
PD\LQGLFDWHWKDWGLVSHUVDOEHWZHHQ0LQQHVRWDDQG
EHWZHHQ
4XHEHF LVOLPLWHGDQGWKDWK\EULGL]DWLRQ
ZROYHVDQG4XHEHFFR\RWHVZLWKXQLTXHJHQRW\SHV
PD\EHRFFXUULQJ
/HKPDQHWDOLQSUHVV
DSSHDUVWREHYHU\
UDUH
7KH,VOH5R\DOH
ZROIJHQRW\SH
LQPDLQODQG
7DEOH7KXV
WKHSUREDELOLW\
ZROYHV
IHPDOHV
ZLWKWKLVJHQRW\SH
RIWZRXQUHODWHG
IRXQGLQJ
WKH,VOH5R\DOHSRSXODWLRQLVVPDOO
WKHFRQ
VXSSRUWLQJ
WKDWWKHVDPSOHGZROYHVGHVFHQGHGIURP
DVLQ
WHQWLRQ
IHPDOH
WKH,VOH5R\DOHJHQRW\SH
+RZHYHU
JOHIRXQGLQJ
PD\EHPRUHDEXQGDQWLQDUHDVRXWVLGHRI0LQQHVRWD
$OOZROIPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
DQG2QWDULR
VDPSOHGIURP
7KLVUHIOHFWV
IURP
FR\RWHV
PXOWLSOH
4XHEHFDUHGHULYHG
DQGFRQVHTXHQWO\
WKH,VOH5R\DOH
K\EULGL]DWLRQ
HYHQWV
LQFR\RWHVRUZROYHVWR
FRXOGKDYHRULJLQDWHG
JHQRW\SH
:ROYHVIRXQG
WRWKHZHVWDQGQRUWK
WKHHDVWRI2QWDULR
RI0LQQHVRWDDQG2QWDULRDOOKDYHSXUHZROIPW'1$
VRXUFHRIWKHFR\
WKHPDQXQOLNHO\
JHQRW\SHV
PDNLQJ
LQZROYHVIURP
IRXQG
,VOH
PW'1$
RWHGHULYHG
JHQRW\SH
WKHSUHV
5R\DOH/HKPDQHWDOLQSUHVV&RQVHTXHQWO\
:
:L2
:OO
:
&
LQ,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVPD\UH
HQFHRIDUDUHJHQRW\SH
RIZROYHVIURP
IOHFW
DUHDVWRWKH
ORQJGLVWDQFH
GLVSHUVDO
HDVWRI,VOH5R\DOH
:HDUHFXUUHQWO\
H[SDQGLQJ
RXUVDP
SOHWRWHVWWKLVK\SRWKHVLV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
,PSOLFDWLRQV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
IRFXVRQWKHSURWHFWLRQ
SODQVRIWHQ
RIHQ
GDQJHUHGSRSXODWLRQVWKDWDUHPRUSKRORJLFDOO\
RUJH
QHWLFDOO\
GLVWLQFW
7KH,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDSSHDUHGWREH
DSRSXODWLRQ
WKDW
ZRXOGQRWEHGLVWLQFW
IURP
PRVWPDLQ
ODQGZROYHVJLYHQWKDWWKH\KDYHEHHQLVRODWHGIRURQO\
\HDUV+RZHYHUWKH,VOH 5R\DOHZROYHV KDYHD
PW'1$JHQRW\SHWKDWLVH[WUHPHO\
UDUHRQWKHPDLQ
ODQG7KLVPLJKW
EHUHDVRQIRUFRQVHUYDWLRQ
RI,VOH5R\
DOHZROYHVDVDXQLTXHJHQHWLFHQWLW\
+RZHYHUVXFK
FRQFHUQVQHHGWREHSODFHGLQWKHSHUVSHFWLYH
RIYDULD
WLRQZLWKLQWKHVSHFLHVDQGDGGLWLRQDOPRUSKRORJLFDO
DQGJHQHWLFFULWHULD
7KHVLQJOHUHVWULFWLRQVLWH
GLIIHU
HQFHEHWZHHQWKH,VOH5R\DOHZROIJHQRW\SH
DQGRWKHU
VXFKDV:RQWKHPDLQODQG
LVVPDOOUHODWLYH
JHQRW\SHV
WRDPD[LPXPRIREVHUYHGUHVWULFWLRQVLWH
GLIIHU
HQFHVVHSDUDWLQJ
FR\RWHJHQRW\SHV/HKPDQHWDOLQ
SUHVV0RUHRYHUQRDOOR]\PHPDUNHUV
7DEOH RU
PRUSKRORJLFDO
GLIIHUHQFHV
GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ
PDLQODQG
DQG
,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDUHHYLGHQW3HWHUVRQDQGXQ
WKHOLPLWHGPRUSKRORJLFDO
SXEOLVKHGGDWD7KHUHIRUH
RI,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVGRHV
DQGJHQHWLFGLVWLQFWLYHQHVV
LQSDUHQWKHVLV
GLIIHUHQFH
VWDQGDUG
HUURU
XQELDVHG
HVWLPDWH
PHDQ
VL]H1DYHUDJH
$3'UDQJH
6(ZLWK
SHUFHQW
7DEOH 6DPSOH
RIIL[HG
LQSDUHQWKHVLV
DQGSURSRUWLRQ
UHVWULFWLRQ
IUDJPHQWV
GHYLDWLRQ
RIUHVWULFWLRQ
ZLWK
VWDQGDUG
IUDJPHQWV
QXPEHU
1
F,VOH5R\DOH
$3'
5DQJH
6FLHQFH
I-XOLDQ
EO 0DLQODQG
IO'DOKRXVLH
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
0HDQ QXPEHU
RIIUDJPHQWV
3URSRUWLRQ
IL[HG
6(
HWDO
:D\QH
*HQHWLFV
RI,VOH5R\DOH
:ROYHV
$3'
&OXO
U',
'
U5
'
'
'
,5,
,5
5
,5
,5
,5
&OX
&OX
&OX
&OX
&OX
)LJXUH 83*0$WUHHEDVHGRQDYHUDJHSHUFHQWGLI
IHUHQFH$3' YDOXHVIURPWKHJHQHWLF
ILQJHUSULQWLQJ
DQDO\VLVRIPDLQODQGLVODQGDQGFDSWLYHZROYHV
7DEOH 7UHHJHQHUDWHGXVLQJWKH1XPHULFDO7D[
RQRP\6\VWHP
$SSOLHG%LRVWDWLVWLFV
,QF6HWDXNHW
1HZ<RUN&RGHV'-'ZROYHVIURP'DOERXVLH
8QLYHUVLW\
,5,,5,VOH5R\DOHZROYHV&OXO&OX
PDLQODQGZROYHVFKRVHQDWUDQGRPIURP0LQQHVRWD
QRWVXSSRUW
FRQVHUYDWLRQ
RI,VOH5R\DOHZROYHVDVDVHS
DUDWHHQWLW\
$VHFRQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQ
FRQFHUQVUHLQWURGXFWLRQ
RI
PDLQODQG
ZROYHVWR,VOH5R\DOHJLYHQWKHSRVVLEOHH[
WLQFWLRQ
RIWKHUHVLGHQW
7KH,VOH5R\DOH
SRSXODWLRQ
ZROI
KDVVFLHQWLILF
YDOXHDVDPRGHORISHUVLVWHQFH
SRSXODWLRQ
DQGJHQHWLFFKDQJHLQVPDOOSRSXODWLRQV
DQGDVDPRGHO
IRUSUHGDWRUSUH\
UHLQWUR
UHODWLRQVKLSV
&RQVHTXHQWO\
GXFWLRQRIZROYHVIURP
WKHPDLQODQG
PD\EHGHVLUDEOH
EXWZKLFKZROIPW'1$JHQRW\SHV
VKRXOGEHUHLQWUR
GXFHG",QWURGXFWLRQ
RIZROYHVZLWKFR\RWHJHQRW\SHV
QHFHVVDULO\
LQYROYHVZROYHVZKRVHDQFHVWRUVKDYHK\
EULGL]HGZLWKFR\RWHV$OWHUQDWLYHO\
LQWURGXFWLRQ
RI
ZROYHVZLWKZROIPW'1$
PD\FRPSURPLVH
WKHSUHVHQW
UHVLGHQW
SRSXODWLRQ
EHFDXVHWKH\
KDYHDFR\RWHGHULYHG
PW'1$
JHQRW\SH
+RZHYHUJLYHQWKDWPDLQWDLQLQJ
WKH
RIWKHLVODQGSRSXODWLRQ
LVQRWFULWLFDO
JHQHWLFLQWHJULW\
LQGLYLGXDOV
VKRXOGEHFKRVHQZLWKXQLTXHJHQHWLF
PDUN
HUVWRDOORZPRQLWRULQJ
RIUHSURGXFWLRQ
LQWKHSRSXOD
WLRQRYHUWLPH)RUH[DPSOHIHPDOHVZLWKGLIIHUHQW
PW'1$JHQRW\SHV
FDQEHLQWURGXFHG
LQWRWKHUHVLGHQW
FRXOGWKHQEHHIIHFWLYHO\
VXUYLYDO
SRSXODWLRQ
2IIVSULQJ
PRQLWRUHG
ZLWKPW'1$
UHVWULFWLRQVLWH
DQDO\VLV
DQGJH
QHWLFILQJHUSULQWLQJ
$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV
:HWKDQN
WKHELRORJLVWV
OLVWHGLQ7DEOHDVZHOODV0
DQGQXPHURXV
IRU
1HOVRQ
-%XUFK
RWKHUV
VHQGLQJ
VSHF
LPHQV)XQGLQJ
ZDVSURYLGHGE\WKH861DWLRQDO3DUN
6HUYLFHWR5.:DQG523E\WKH1DWLRQDO6FLHQFH
)RXQGDWLRQ%65WR
523DQGE\WKH86
)LVKDQG:LOGOLIH
6HUYLFHDQGWKH86'$
1RUWK
&HQWUDO
)RUHVW([SHULPHQW
6WDWLRQ
-$UFKLH
-+DWILHOG
7)XO
OHU)+HUWHO
51RZDN62
%ULHQ36PRXVH%9DQ
9DONHQEXUJK
DQGWZRDQRQ\PRXV
UHYLHZHUV
SURYLGHG
FRPPHQWV
WKDWJUHDWO\
LPSURYHG
WKHPDQXVFULSW
/LWHUDWXUH
&LWHG
):*HQHWLFGULIW
$OOHQGRUI
DQGWKHORVVRIDOOHOHVYHU
VXVKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
=RR%LRORJ\
$UFKLH
-
:6WDWLVWLFDO
DQDO\VLV
RIKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
GDWD
(YROXWLRQ
LQGHSHQGHQW
VDPSOHFRPSDULVRQV
$YLVH
-&-$UQROG
50%DOOHWDO,QWUDVSHFLILF
SK\
ORJHRJUDSK\
WKHPLWRFKRQGULDO
'1$EULGJHEHWZHHQSRSXOD
WLRQJHQHWLFV
DQGV\VWHPDWLFV
$QQXDO
5HYLHZ(FRORJ\DQG6\V
WHPDWLFV
$YLVH
-&500DUWLQ
DQG-$UQROG&XUUHQW
YHUVXV
KLVWRULFDOSRSXODWLRQVL]HVLQYHUWHEUDWH
VSHFLHVZLWKKLJK
DFRPSDULVRQ
JHQHIORZ
EDVHGRQPLWRFKRQGULDO
'1$OLQHDJHV
DQGLQEUHHGLQJ
IRUQHXWUDO
WKHRU\
PXWDWLRQV
0ROHFXODU%LRO
RJ\DQG(YROXWLRQ
%DUWRQ
1+DQG%&KDUOHVZRUWK
*HQHWLFUHYROXWLRQV
IRXQGHU
DQGVSHFLDWLRQ$QQXDO5HYLHZ(FRORJ\DQG
HIIHFWV
6\VWHPDWLFV
(7DQG-&$YLVH0ROHFXODU]RRJHRJ
%HUPLQJKDP
UDSK\RIIUHVKZDWHU
ILVKHVLQWKH6RXWKHDVWHUQ
8QLWHG6WDWHV
*HQHWLFV
%RXUVRW
3+<RQHNDZDDQG)%RQKRPPH+HWHUR
LQPLFHZLWKGHOHWLRQRIODUJHFRGLQJUHJLRQRIPLWR
SODVP\
FKRQGULDO
'1$0ROHFXODU%LRORJ\DQG(YROXWLRQ
%URZQ
:00*HRUJHDQG$&:LOVRQ5DSLGHYR
OXWLRQRIDQLPDOPLWRFKRQGULDO
'1$3URFHHGLQJV1DWLRQDO
$FDGHP\
RI6FLHQFH86$
&URZ-)DQG0.LPXUD$QLQWURGXFWLRQ
WRSRSXOD
WLRQJHQHWLFVWKHRU\
+DUSHUDQG5RZ1HZ<RUN
/'-
::ULJKW
'HQVPRUH
DQG:0%URZQ/HQJWK
YDULDWLRQDQGKHWHURSODVP\
DUHIUHTXHQWLQPLWRFKRQGULDO
'1$IURP
DQGELVH[XDOOL]DUGVJHQXV&QHPL
SDWKRJHQHWLF
GRSKRUXV*HQHWLFV
)DOFRQHU'6,QWURGXFWLRQ
WRTXDQWLWDWLYH
JHQHWLFV
/RQJPDQ
1HZ<RUN
*HRUJH6%(YROXWLRQDQGKLVWRULFDO
ELRJHRJUDSK\
RI
VRULFLQHVKUHZV
6\VWHPDWLF
=RRORJ\
'$1/HKPDQ
*LOEHUW
6-2
%ULHQDQG5.:D\QH
*HQHWLFILQJHUSULQWLQJ
UHIOHFWV
SRSXODWLRQGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ
LQ
WKH&KDQQHO,VODQG)R[1DWXUH
0(DQG0(6RXO 0LQLPXP
*LOSLQ
YLDEOHSRSXOD
WLRQVSURFHVVRIVSHFLHVH[WLQFWLRQ3DJHV LQ0(
6RXOHHGLWRU
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
WKHVFLHQFHRIVFDUFLW\
ELRORJ\
DQG
6LQDXHU
GLYHUVLW\
$VVRFLDWHV
6XQGHUODQG
0DVVDFKXVHWWV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
RI,VOH5R\DOH
*HQHWLFV
:ROYHV
+DUWO'/3ULQFLSOHVRISRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFV6LQDXHU
$VVRFLDWHV
6XQGHUODQG
0DVVDFKXVHWWV
-HIIUH\V
$-
9:LOVRQDQG6/7KHLQ+\SHUYDULDEOH
PLQLVDWHOOLWH
UHJLRQVLQKXPDQ'1$1DWXUH
-RUGRQ
3$3&6KHOGRQDQG'/$OOHQ1XPEHUV
WXUQRYHU
DQGVRFLDOVWUXFWXUH
RIWKH,VOH5R\DOHZROISRSXOD
WLRQ$PHULFDQ
=RRORJLVW
.UHHJHU
7-
$0)DJJHOOD
866HDO/'0HFK0&DOODKDQ
DQG%+DOO&DUGLRYDVFXODU
DQGEHKDYLRUDO
UHVSRQVHVRI
JUD\
ZROYHVWRNHWDPLQH[\OD]LQH
LPPRELOL]DWLRQ
DQGDQWDJR
QLVPE\\RKLPELQH
-RXUQDO
RI:LOGOLIH
'LVHDVHV
.XHKQ':7. )XOOHU
/'0HFK:-3DXO6+)ULWWV
DQG:(%HUJ7UDSUHODWHG
LQMXULHV
WRZROYHVLQ0LQ
QHVRWD-RXUQDO
RI:LOGOLIH
0DQDJHPHQW
:D\QH
HWDO
1HL0)VWDWLVWLFV
DQGWKHDQDO\VLV
RIJHQHGLYHUVLW\
LQ
VXEGLYLGHG
SRSXODWLRQV$QQDOVRI+XPDQ*HQHWLFV
RIDYHUDJHKHWHUR]\JRVLW\
1HL0(VWLPDWLRQ
DQGJH
QHWLFGLVWDQFHIURP
DVPDOOQXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOV
*HQHWLFV
1HL00ROHFXODUHYROXWLRQDU\
JHQHWLFV
&ROXPELD8QL
YHUVLW\
3UHVV1HZ<RUN
1HL0DQG5.&KHVVHU(VWLPDWLRQ
RIIL[DWLRQ
LQGLFHV
DQGJHQHGLYHUVLWLHV
$QQDOVRI+XPDQ*HQHWLFV
1HL0DQG:+/L0DWKHPDWLFDO
PRGHOVIRUVWXG\LQJ
LQWHUPVRIUHVWULFWLRQ
JHQHWLFYDULDWLRQ
HQGRQXFOHDVHV3UR
FHHGLQJ1DWLRQDO
$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV86$
DQG5&KDNUDERUW\
1HL070DUX\DPD
7KHERWWOH
.XKQOHLQ
8'=DGZRUQ\
<'DZH5:)DLUIXOO
QHFNHIIHFW
DQG-6
DQGJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\
LQSRSXODWLRQV(YROXWLRQ
*DYRUD$VVHVVPHQW
RILQEUHHGLQJ
E\'1$ILQJHUSULQW LQJGHYHORSPHQW
RIDFDOLEUDWLRQ
FXUYHXVLQJ
GHILQHG
VWUDLQV
RI
FKLFNHQV
*HQHWLFV
)(YHUPDQQ
2
%ULHQ
6-
DQG-
LQIOXHQFH
RI
,QWHUDFWLYH
LQIHFWLRXV
GLVHDVHDQGJHQHWLFGLYHUVLW\
RIQDWXUDO
SRSXODWLRQV
/DF\5&/RVVRIJHQHWLFGLYHUVLW\
IURP
7UHQGVLQ(FRORJ\(YROXWLRQ
PDQDJHG
SRS
XODWLRQV
HIIHFWV
RIGULIW
LQWHUDFWLQJ
VH
PXWDWLRQ
LPPLJUDWLRQ
OHFWLRQDQGSRSXODWLRQVXEGLYLVLRQ&RQVHUYDWLRQ%LRORJ\
3HWHUVRQ
5 :ROIHFRORJ\DQGSUH\UHODWLRQVKLSV
RQ
,VOH5R\DOH861DWLRQDO3DUN6HUYLFH6FLHQWLILF
0RQRJUDSK
6HULHV:DVKLQJWRQ
'&SS
&)$TXDGUR
5$
DQG6:
/DQVPDQ
-&$YLVH
-)6KLSLUD
'DQLHO([WHQVLYHJHQHWLFYDULDWLRQLQPLWRFKRQGULDO 3HWHUVRQ
52DQG5-.UXPHQDNHU
:ROYHVDSSURDFK
'1$VDPRQJJHRJUDSKLF
RIWKHGHHUPRXVH3HU
SRSXODWLRQV
H[WLQFWLRQ
RQ,VOH5R\DOHDELRORJLFDODQGSROLF\FRQXQGUXP
*HRUJH:ULJKW
)RUXP
RP\VFXV PDQLFXODWXV (YROXWLRQ
5$56KDGH
DQG-'$YLVH
/DQVPDQ
-)6KDSLUD
7KHXVHRIUHVWULFWLRQ
HQGRQXFOHDVHDQDO\VLV
WRPHDVXUHPLWR
FKRQGULDO'1$VHTXHQFHUHODWHGQHVV
LQQDWXUDO
SRSXODWLRQV
,,,7HFKQLTXHVDQGSRWHQWLDODSSOLFDWLRQV
0ROHFXODU
-RXUQDO
(YROXWLRQ
. +DQVHQHWDO,QWURJUHV
/HKPDQ
1$(LVHQKDZHU
'1$LQWRV\PSDWULF
$PHU
VLRQRIFR\RWHPLWRFKRQGULDO
1RUWK
LFDQJUD\
,QSUHVV
ZROISRSXODWLRQV
(YROXWLRQ
)VWDWLVWLFV
IRU
/HVOLH
-)$EDVLFSURJUDP
FDOFXODWLQJ
-
+HUHGLW\
52DQG5(3DJH7KHULVHDQGIDOORI,VOH
3HWHUVRQ
5R\DOHZROYHV-RXUQDO
RI0DPPDORJ\
5DLOV.DQG-%DOORX([WLQFWLRQV
OHVVRQVIURP
]RRV
3DJHVLQ&06FKRQHZDOG&R[
60&KDPEHUV
%
DQG/7KRPDV
0DF%U\GH
HGLWRUV
*HQHWLFVDQGFRQVHUYDWLRQ
DUHIHUHQFH
PDQXDOIRUPDQDJLQJ
ZLOGDQLPDODQGSODQWSRSX
ODWLRQV
0HQOR3DUN
%HQMDPLQ&XPPLQJV
&DOLIRUQLD
5DLOV.-'%DOORXDQG$7HPSOHWRQ(VWLPDWHV
RI
OHWKDOHTXLYDOHQWVDQGWKHFRVWVRILQEUHHGLQJ
LQPDPPDOV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
07KHVLPLODULW\
LQGH[DQG'1$ILQJHUSULQWLQJ 6KLHOGV
:03KLORSDWU\
/\QFK
LQEUHHGLQJ
DQGWKHHYROXWLRQ
0ROHFXODU%LRORJ\DQG(YROXWLRQ
RIVH[6WDWH8QLYHUVLW\
RI1HZ<RUN3UHVV
1HZ<RUN
$OEDQ\
0HFK/'7KHZROYHVRI,VOH5R\DOH)DXQD6HULHV1R
'&SS
861DWLRQDO3DUN6HUYLFH
:DVKLQJWRQ
DQGVRFLDO
0HFK/'$JHVHDVRQGLVWDQFH
GLUHFWLRQ
IURP
D0LQQHVRWD
DVSHFWVRIZROIGLVSHUVDO
SDFN3DJHV
LQ%'LDQH&KHSNR6DGH
DQG=7DQJ+DOSLQ
HGLWRUV
0DPPD
OLDQGLVSHUVDOSDWWHUQV
RI&KLFDJR3UHVV&KLFDJR
8QLYHUVLW\
,OOLQRLV
0HFK/'60*R\DODQG&1%RWD&DQLQHSDUYR
LQZROYHV&DQLVOXSXVIURP
YLUXV
LQIHFWLRQ
0LQQHVRWD
-RXU
QDORI:LOGOLIH
'LVHDVH
DQG:0%URZQ(YROXWLRQ
RI
0RULW]
&7('RZOLQJ
'1$UHOHYDQFHIRUSRSXODWLRQELRORJ\
DQLPDOPLWRFKRQGULDO
$QQXDO5HYLHZ(FRORJ\DQG6\VWHPDWLFV
DQGV\VWHPDWLFV
%LRORJ\
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
9ROXPH1R0DUFK
'/DQG5%6HODQGHU%,26<6D)25
6ZRIIRUG
75$1SURJUDP
IRUWKHFRPSUHKHQVLYH
RIHOHFWURSKR
DQDO\VLV
UHWLFGDWDLQSRSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVDQGV\VWHPDWLFV
-RXUQDO
RI
+HUHGLW\
'/3$833K\ORJHQHWLF
6ZRIIRUG
DQDO\VLV
XVLQJSDUVL
PRQ\YHUVLRQ ,OOLQRLV1DWXUDO+LVWRU\
6RFLHW\&KDP
SDLJQ,OOLQRLV
$5&RDGDSWDWLRQ
DQGRXWEUHHGLQJ
7HPSOHWRQ
GHSUHV
VLRQ3DJHVLQ0(6RXOHHGLWRU&RQVHUYDWLRQ
ELRO
DQGGLYHUVLW\
6LQDXHU$VVRFLDWHV
RJ\WKHVFLHQFHRIVFDUFLW\
0DVVDFKXVHWWV
6XQGHUODQG
$5DQG%5HHG)DFWRUVHOLPLQDWLQJ
LQ
7HPSOHWRQ
EUHHGLQJ
GHSUHVVLRQLQDFDSWLYHKHUGRI6SHNH
VJD]HOOH*D
]HOODVSHNHL=RR%LRORJ\
HW
DO
:D\QH
:DQQDFRWW
VWD
,QWURGXFWRU\
:DQQDFRWW
7+DQG5-
WLVWLFV
-RKQ
:LOH\6RQV1HZ<RUN
%9DQ9DONHQEXUJK
DQG
:D\QH
5.3:.DW7. )XOOHU
6-2
%ULHQ*HQHWLFDQGPRUSKRORJLFGLYHUJHQFHV
-RXUQDO
RI
FDQLGV0DPPDOLD&DUQLYRUD
DPRQJV\PSDWULF
+HUHGLW\
HWDO/DUJH
VHTXHQFH
5.$0H\HU
1/HKPDQ
:D\QH
ZLWKLQ
'1$JHQRW\SHV
SRS
GLYHUJHQFH
DPRQJPLWRFKRQGULDO
1D
EODFNEDFNHG
MDFNDOV3URFHHGLQJV
XODWLRQVRI(DVW$IULFDQ
WLRQDO$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFH86$
:D\QH5. DQG6-2
%ULHQ$OOR]\PHGLYHUJHQFH
WKH&DQLGDH6\VWHPDWLF
ZLWKLQ
=RRORJ\
*HQHWFV
RI
,VOH
:ROYHV
5R\DH
:HLU%6DQG&&&RFNHUKDP(VWLPDWLQJ
)VWDWLVWLFV
RISRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUH
IRUWKHDQDO\VLV
(YROXWLRQ
:ROIH
0/DQG'/$OOHQ&RQWLQXHGVWXGLHVRIWKH
VWDWXV
VRFLDOL]DWLRQ
DQGUHODWLRQVKLSV
RI,VOH5R\DOHZROYHV
-0DPPDORJ\
3/DQG-
'1LVZDQGHU
:RUNPDQ
3RSXODWLRQVWXGLHV
RQVRXWKZHVWHP
,QGLDQWULEHV
,,/RFDOJHQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ
LQWKH3DSDJR$PHULFDQ
-RXUQDO
RI+XPDQ*HQHWLFV
:ULJKW
67KHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
RISRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUH
E\
)VWDWLVWLFV
ZLWKVSHFLDOUHJDUG
WRV\VWHPV
RIPDWLQJ
(YROXWLRQ
6(YROXWLRQDQGWKHJHQHWLFVRISRSXODWLRQV
:ULJKW
9ROXPH7KHWKHRU\
RIJHQHIUHTXHQFLHV
8QLYHUVLW\
RI&KL
FDJR3UHVV&KLFDJR,OOLQRLV
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
9ROXPH1R0DUFK