Chile - Ciiemad

Symposium
LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
Towards a regional assessment of LAC´s LMEs
Current state of goods, services and governance of the Humboldt Current Large
Marine Ecosystem in the context of Climate Change
Mariano Gutiérrez T.
Senior Project Officer
GEF-PNUD-HCLME Project
Cancun, Mexico, September 7-8, 2015
Current state of goods, services and governance of the Humboldt Current Large
Marine Ecosystem in the context of Climate Change
1. High Variability of the HCLME
2. Main economic activities in the HCLME
3. Current state of the HCLME Project
4. The five thematic aspects of the HCLME
5. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
6. Provisional Strategic Action Programm
7. Ecological Risk Assessment
8. Marine Spatial Planning – Ocean Health Index
9. Economic Valuation of the HCLME economic activities
10. Pilot sites most relevant activities
11. Long history of Climate change in the HCLME
1. High Variability of the HCLME
Peru coastline 2,850km
Chile coastline 4,500km
Total 7,350 km
ZEE = 370km
7,350 x 370 =
2,719,500km2
GEMCH = 27,195,000ha
Marine Protected Areas
Chile – Peru 4% y 0.5%
respectively
Encased trade winds due to the Andes mountains produce a unique condition for upwelling
Among all LME, the HCLME is the most affected by climate dynamics
Impacts in daily, week, month, season, years, decades cycles (El Niño, La Niña, El Viejo, La Vieja, Kelvin, Rossby, coastal jets,
filaments etc etc)
Spatial pattern of the EOF with the northern HCS showing the highest variance relative to any coastal area of the world ocean
(being EOF the First Orthogonal Function of sea surface temperatures anomalies time series)
Chavez et al 2008
Kelvin waves propagation is the driver of ocean warming and El Niño events
Trapped Kelvin waves and thermocline dynamics along the HCLME
In the HCLME normality does not exist, normality is the variability
8.0
“WARM”
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
“COLD”
-4.0
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
2. Main economic activities in the HCLME
Economic
activities
que impactan
Actividades
el GEMCH:
Agriculture
Agricultura
Oil & Gas
MiningExplotación de hidrocarburos
y minería
Industria
Industrial
fishing
Pesca industrial
Artisan fishing
Pesca artesanal
Tourism
Turismo y deportes
SportsTransporte marítimo
Maritime
transportcostera
Urbanización
Mariculture
Urbanization
Problemas que debemos
enfrentar:
Impacts
Contaminación
Descartes
Pollution
Especies invasoras
By catch
Pesca Ilegal
Discards
Pesca no sustentable
Invasive species
Pérdida de hábitat
Habitat
loss de especies
Pérdida
Species loss
Less than 1% of ocean surface produces no less than 12% of world catches
Pescado capturado (mg/m2/día)
(one order of magnitude over other LMEs)
Producción primaria (mg C/m 2/día)
Chavez et al 2008
Chavez et al.
Upwelling and Minimum Oxygen Zone (MOZ)
In the northern and central HCLME the abundance of demersal species is low. Instead the MOZ is
plenty of life, the micronekton is abundant.
Helly & Levin, 2003
Stakeholder involvement and awareness raising on a shared responsibility
Some practices (urban development, industry, depredatory tourism, irrational demand of certain products etc) caused a fragile condition of certain
species, including the artisan fishermen.
Species in risk of
extinction
Alfaro et al 2010, 2011
3. Current state of the HCLME Project
HCLME Project Strategy
CONCEPTUAL
-INFORMED PLANNING-
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
BUILDING AND TOOLS
IMPLEMENTATION OF
PRIORITY
INTERVENTIONS
IN SITU INTERVENTIONS
-PILOTS-
RESULT 1
1.1 EDA (TBA)
1.2 NAP, SAP & SNAPs
1.3 EBM Governance framework
1.4 Awareness Programme
RESULT 2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Planning and M&E system
Capacity Prog. for EBM & SAP
Market mechansims
Compliance programme
RESULT 3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Seamounts norm. framework
Master Plan RNSIIPG
Anchovy Coordinated Managt.
Homologised MPAs strategies
RESULT 4
4.1 Two seamounts in Chile
4.2 Three pilots isles in RNSIIPG
4.3 Marine Canyon Pilot Plan
4.4 Capacity Prog. in pilots
GOAL: A sustainably used and resilient HCLME that can maintain
biological integrity and diversity and ecosystem services for current
and future generations despite changing climatic and social pressures
Current state of the
HCLME Project
Finished (or near to)
Good progress
In progress
Difficult
PURPOSE: Ecosystem-based management in the HCLME is advanced through a
coordinated framework that provides for improved governance and the sustainable
use of living marine resources and services
OUTCOMES
OUTCOME 1: Planning and policy
instruments for ecosystem
management of HCLME are agreed
in place at regional/national levels
OUTCOME 2: Capacities
strengthened for SAP
implementation and for up-scaling
the results of pilot interventions
OUTCOME 3: Implementation of
priority MPA & fisheries management
tools provides knowledge of options
for enhanced protection of HCLME
OUTCOME 4: Implementation of
pilot MPAs that underpin
ecosystem conservation and
resilience
OUTPUTS
1.1. An ecosystem Diagnostic
Analysis (EDA) of the HCLME is
developed and completed
2.1. Spatially-based Planning,
Monitoring & Evaluation System
developed
3.1. Legislation developed for
implementation of MPAs in oceanic
areas (sea mounts) in Chile
4.1. Two sea mounts in Chile
under legal protection upon
management categories
1.2 Strategic Action Programm
(SAP) for achieving EBM, including
a plan for a system of Marine
Protected Areas of the HCLME
2.2. Institutional capacity building
program developed to strengthen
implementation of the SAP and
EBM
3.2. Guano Islands, Isles and Capes
Master Management Plan developed
with financing strategy
4.2. Management tools
developed for three sites of the
System of Guano Islands, Isles
and Capes
1.3. Governance mechanism for
EBM approaches set up in the
framework of the SAP
2.3. Marketplace governance tools
developed for sustainable fisheries
management
3.3. Coordinated bi-national
management approaches piloted for
the shared anchovy stock
4.3. A pilot plan for conservation
and sustainable management of
sea canyons is available
1.4. Awareness Programme on
EBM for decision-makers, sectors
and resource-user groups
2.4. Capacity building program
targeting key stakeholder groups
(artisanal and industrial fishermen)
implemented to increase
compliance of EBM regulatory
frameworks
3.4. MPA strategies and legislation
compared and equated for the two
countries
4.4. Capacity building,
awareness & socioenvironmental management
programs implemented fr MPAs
PILOT SITES (2011-16): MPAs to develop social sensibility regarding the sustainability
of ecosystems
Seamounts in Chile (Juan Fernandez Archipelago)
http://rtseablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/understanding-seamounts-more-study-of.html
Lobos and Ballestas Islands, and San Juan Point in Peru
http://rnsiipg.blogspot.com/
4. The five thematic aspects of the HCLME
Ocean productivity
Chile
Peru
“In the last three decades however environmental
changes coupled to an increased fishing pressure
has resulted in dramatic fluctuations and loss of
stock of marine natural resources in the HCLME ”
“Furthermore, photosynthetic activity and productivity
primary limitation associated with seasonal variability light
and chlorophyll, are influenced substantially by the
insolation and its variability. In this regard it should be noted
that the insolation shows significant seasonal variation over
the area of Peru”.
Increase of chlorophyll cc in Callao (Purca et al 2010)
Mean dissolved oxygen
(Montecino et al 2013)
Fish and fisheries
Peru
“Landings reached (2011) 4.435 million of tonnes, 3.428
corresponded to fishes. Compared to existed catches in
2003 (4.527) there was a reduction of 2,03%. Fisheries
exploits 198 species (53% fishes). Fisheries contribution
to NGP varied from 1,4 to 1.2% during the last decade”.
“In general, between 1950 and 2012, total landings show high
variability, influenced by human actions (overfishing,
regulations), and by the high variability of the HCLME (ENSO,
OMZ); being anchovy E. ringens the main resource extracted,
granting for many years the First Fishing Country worldwide
position to Peru. The ranking with the top ten fish producing
countries worldwide has not changed since 1992”.
Millones de toneladas
Chile
DESEMBARQUE DE RECURSOS HIDROBIOLÓGICOS TOTAL, 1950 - 2012
14
C/anchoveta
12
S/anchoveta
10
8
6
4
2
Slight decrease of landings (Vargas et al 2013)
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
0
Anchovy landings sustained, all other decreased (Carbajal et al 2013)
Ecosystem health
Chile
Peru
“Environ stress on the HCLME is related to fishing and
other economic activities with impacts on the
ecosystem quality. It is necessary highlight it”.
“The diversification of anthropogenic activities on the Peruvian
coast leads to environmental degradation, by what the
environmental management and mitigation of pollution is
increasingly important. There are a number of sources that in a
direct or indirect way pollute the marine and coastal ecosystem”
Increase of the human population density
(Innovable, 2013)
Largest detected problem is the pollution produced in the cities
discharged in the ocean (Fajardo 2013)
Socioeconomic
Chile
Peru
“The value of landings in 2000 (4.438.381 ton)
regarding 2011 (3.426.731) with reference to the prize
of first transaction (“in beach value”), indicates a loss
of fishing of 608 million of USD, 32,1% of the values in
2011”.
“The value from Peru’s sea for fishing, aquaculture and guano
sectors for 2009 was US$ 3,430 millions, employing 232,357
people. The production phase generated US$ 1,164 MUSD,
while the transformation or processing phase generated US$
1,152 MUSD, the distribution phase generated US$ 82 MUSD
and the wholesale and retail phase generated 30.1% of the
income from the sector with a value of US$ 117 MUSD from
the wholesale markets and US$ 913 MUSD”.
3500
3160
3320
5%
3%
3000
9%
2530
Millions USD
2432
2500
2%
1958
1769
2000
1626
1%
1394
1381
13%
2205
1%
11%
1%
16%
12%
2%
56%
13%
53%
11%
9%
1500
64%
7%
1027
11%
58%
65%
62%
1000
1%
64%
8%
1%
71%
505
500
74%
69%
1%
19%
Decrease of industrial catches, increase of the artisan
fishing (Inostroza et al 2013)
8%
5%
14%
4%
1991
1997
2003
16%
28%
1%
1%
19%
1%
14%
0
1%
1%
72%
3%
86%
19%
19%
25%
21%
16%
3%
2%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
3%
3%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Curado
Harina
Enlatado
Congelado
Aceite
Otros
Fishery exports increase in valure (Paredes et al 2013)
Governance
Chile
Peru
“There is a need of an effective interaction among the
processses of governance and the activities linked to the
direct and indirect use of goods and services of the
HCLME. Such an interaction relays on the improvement
of performance indices of public policies related to the
marine ecosystem and, at the same time, to keep a
permanent communication with stakeholders of every
economic activity”.
“This is an important aspect in the analysis of
governance, in particular the performance of the regional
governments. A number of cases have been documented
in which the norms and objectives at the national level
conflicted with regional management, particularly in the
case of regional fisheries management”.
Executive Branch
CCA
PRODUCE
MINAM
CMA
IGP
VGA VDERN
IMARPE
OEFA
SERNANP
FONDEPES
MINAG
MINDEF
SENACE
MEM
SENAMHI
ANA
MGP
ENAMM
AGRORURAL
VE VM
DGFFS
MEF
HIDRONAV DICAPI
PETROPERU
RREE
SUNAT
VH VE
MINCETUR
APCI
SALUD
DGSLAA
PROINVERSION
PROMPERU
ED
INS
VT VCE
DGSA
DAM
MVCS
Univ. Nac.
MTC
PCM
MTPE
VVU VCS
APN
ENAPU S.A. VTrans
SBN
SEDAPAL
ESSALUD VTr
DVI
Implementation process of a public policy (Innovable, 2013)
DVP
ITP
Peruvian executive branch regarding marine management
(De la Puente & Sueiro, 2013)
5. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA)
Transbounday Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) Peru-Chile after Causal Chain Analysis (CCA)
FIRST TRANSBOUNDARY PROBLEM:
NO OPTIMAL EXPLOITATION OF
FISHING RESOURCES
SECOND TRANSBOUNDARY
PROBLEM: ANTROPIC DISTURBANCE
OF THE MARINE ECOSYSTEM
COMMON PROBLEM:
CONSIDERABLE BY CATCH OR BY
CATCH OF PROTECTED SPECIES AND
DISCARDS
Environmental impacts
Decrease of biomasses and
changes in the population
structure of exploited
species.
Disturbance of trophic
relationships in the marine
ecosystem.
Disturbance of the
biodiversity and resilience
of the ecosuystem
Deterioration of the water
quality and marine
sediments
Mortality of marine
organisms
Disturbance to the
biodiversity and decrease
of the abundance of
species
Disturbance of the trophic
relationships
Disturbance of the
biodiversity and resilience
of the ecosystem
Social impacts
Decrease of the net
income and employment in
the fisheries.
Decrease of the provision of
fishing resources for the
food security.
Economic losses and
decrease of the
competitiveness of the
productive activity
Decrease of food security
of marine feeds
Economic losses,
employment and market
restriction due to impacts
from by catch and discards
6. Provisional Strategic Action Program (SAP)
Objectives of Strategic Action Program (SAP) Perú Chile
BASED ON ECOSYSTEM QUALITY OBJECTIVES (ECOQOS)
1. To recover and maintain optimal levels of populations of main fishing resources
considering the environ variability in regard to the need of keeping the health and
productivity of the ecosystem.
2. To improve the environmental quality of the coastal and marine ecosystem throughout
an integrated management.
3. To recover and maintain the habitat and biodiversity at the maximum possible level.
4. To diversify and add value, creating productive opportunities in and outside the fishing
sector with socially organized and integrated people.
5. To contribute to food security of the human population.
Transversal elements: (1) to use the scientific knowledge in the management; (2) to
promote a continuous intersectorail intervention from the governmental agencies; (3)
to approach the understanding of environmental variability and impacts of climate
change.
7. Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA)
ERA: Semi-quantitative analysis at different levels and components is useful alternative in poorly documented fisheries
GEF-PNUD-Humboldt, 2013
Management plans can be reviewed to the light of yearly performed ERAs
Emblematic case in Peru: the Marcona Fishermen Community
IMARPE, 2013
Ecological Risk Assessment in Fisheries: in process of implementation both in Peru and Chile
3.0
(<- Baja) Susceptibilidad (Alta ->)
CHUITA
CORMORAN
2.5
HABITAT
2.0
PIQUERO
COMMUNITY
ANCHOVETA
MEDUSA
CALAMAR
LISA
PEJERREY
SAMASA
COJINOBA
1.5
DELFIN
NARIZ
BOTELLA
TORTUGA PICO
DE LORO
LORNA
TORTUGA
MANAGEMENTVERDE
CABINZA
LOBO CHUSCO
CAMOTILLO
BAGRE BONITO
JUREL
1.0
PEZ ESPEJO
RAYA
PINGUINO
SAMASA
1.0
1.5
(<- Alta
2.0
Productividad
2.5
Baja)->)
3.0
Ecological Risk Assessment in Fisheries: in process of implementation both in Peru and Chile
3.0
(<- Baja) Susceptibilidad (Alta ->)
CHUITA
CORMORAN
2.5
HABITAT
PIQUERO
CORMORAN
CHUITA
2.0
COMMUNITY
ANCHOVETA
MEDUSA
PIQUERO
CALAMAR
LISA
PEJERREY
SAMASA
COJINOBA
1.5
TORTUGA PICO
DE LORO
LORNA
DELFIN
NARIZ
BOTELLA
TORTUGA
MANAGEMENTVERDE
CABINZA
LOBO CHUSCO
LOBO CHUSCO
BAGRE BONITO
DELFIN
PEZ ESPEJO
TORTUGA PICO
NARIZ
JUREL
RAYA
PINGUINO
DE LORO
BOTELLA
RAYA
TORTUGA SAMASA
1.0
VERDE
CAMOTILLO
1.0
1.5
(<- Alta
2.0
Productividad
2.5
Baja)->)
3.0
8. Marine Spatial Planning – Ocean Health Index
Components of Ecosystem Approach to Management = Sustainable development
Ecologic
feasible
livable
sustainable
development
Social
distributive
Economic
Then scientific and technologic development is not enough. Zoning is also priority.
(under development both in Chile and Peru)
DICAPI
PRODUCE
MINAM
AGRORURAL
IMARPE
GORE-ICA
SERNANP
APN
UNICA
RNSIIPG
APROPISCO
ACHD-PISCO
TPSM
DIREPRO
PNUD
UNOPS
GEF
Proyecto GEF-PNUD-Humboldt
Pisco River
MPAs
Oil & Gas
facilities
Pisco city
Agriculture
San Martin Harbour
International airport
Industrial fishing facilities
Tourism
Mariculture
Paracas museum
Paracas
National
Reserve
Villegas, 2015
Wetlands
Artisan fishing
(in all the zone)
Furthermore is needed an efficient and transversal governmental management (at national,
regional and local levels) controlled through out indicators
Ocean Health Index (adopted by COMUMA in Peru)
“What inadequate call Earth this planet when is evident it should be called Ocean”, Arthur C. Clarke
67
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
9. Economic Valuation of the HCLME economic activities
Total Economic Valuation of the HCLME as base line to sustain a comprehensive management of goods and services (million USD)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Provision
PERU-CHILE
HCLME,
at GEMCH
2014 rates
Servicios
de services
Provisión
Perú,
Chile,
(first transaction revenue)
Total: Perú
Total: Chile
Total: GEMCH
Cultural services PERU CHILE HCLME
(first transaction
revenue,
million
USD) GEMCH
Servicios
Culturales
- Perú,
Chile,
6000
5000
4000
Total: Perú
3000
Total: Chile
2000
Total: GEMCH
1000
0
Ethical not use value
assigned to natural
resources to sustain the
opportunity of its
future use by new
generations
Regulation services PERU CHILE HCLME
(first transaction revenue, million USD)
Servicios de Regulación - Perú, Chile, GEMCH
1200
Total: Perú
Total: Chile
1000
Total: GEMCH
800
600
400
200
0
(C1-1) Turismo
de naturaleza
(C1-2) Turismo
arqueológico
(C1-3) Turismo
de sol y playa
(C1-4) Pesca
deportiva
(C1-5) Deportes
acuáticos
Total Economic Valuation of the HCLME by regions and services
Valorización Económica Perú Chile por Categorías
20000
18000
16000
Total: Servicios de Provisión
14000
Total: Servicios Culturales
12000
Total: Servicios de Regulación
10000
8000
Total: General
6000
4000
2000
0
Peru: 8.2 billion USD
Chile: 11.3 billion USD
Total: 19.5 billion USD (obviously underestimated)
10. Pilot sites most relevant activities 2015
Chile
Training to scientific observers (NOAA)
Identification keys for sharks and rays
Research on discards in fisheries
Tracking of sharks
Evaluation of public policies
Training for administrators of MPAs
Identification of sea mammals
Legal basis for creation and management of MPAs in Chile
Ecosystem study of fisheries in the JF Archipelago
Identification of conservation high value sites
Management Plan for MPA of JF Archipelago
Thresholds and criteria for classifying marine species
Methods for spatial identification of fishing grounds
Peru
22 Management Committees established in 33 sites of the National Reserve of Capes and Islands
Fuente: IMARPE-SERNANP
Promoting Ecosystem Approach to Management through out Value Chains and certification of fisheries
Integral Action Plan (PIA) for restocking of microalgae beds in 50 hectares in Paracas Bay
(in cooperation with Artisan Union and Acuisur)
Fuente: ACUISUR
Discouraging the use of illegal fishing gears and providing a new classification of artisan boats and gears
Diagnostic of fishery regulations based on biological criteria
Biodiversity baseline in all MPAs
Aracanto
Pintadilla
Trambollo
Caracol Negro
Working on the establishment of Territorial
Use Rights for fishing
Ecosystem Diagnostic Analysis of the pilot
sites in Peru
Courses and workshops on Coastal Marine
Stewardships
(for the 22 Management Committees of the National
reserve of capes and islands)
Consultancy on financial options to sustain MPAs
Drones technology for assessment of sea bird
and sea lyons’ populations
Communication outreach
AMIG@S DEL MAR
Grupo multisectorial
instituciones públicas, entidades
privadas y sociedad civil
organizada,
acciones articuladas y
descentralizadas
de educación y comunicación
ambiental
GIS software for remote maintenance of data
bases on catches (and other events) beach by
beach along 23 km in the Marcona site
Course on option of ecolabelling for capture
fishing and aquaculture
Other Peru + Chile activities
Regional Workshop on Marine Protected Areas
Quality indicators on hard bottom and soft bottom ecosystems
Workshop on standardization of acoustic methods
used in fish stock assessment
Regional Workshop on vulnerable marine ecosystems
(with emphasis in seamounts and canyons)
Ecosistemas Marinos Vulnerables
El proyecto GEF-PNUD Humboldt promueve la protección de Ecosistemas
Marinos Vulnerables (EVM)
¿Qué es un
Ecosistema
Marino?
Un ecosistema marino es definido como la suma de todos los organismos
marinos que habitan en un área particular, las interacciones entre estos
organismos y el ambiente físico en el cual ellos Interactúan.
¿Qué son los EMV?
Un EMV podría ser definido como uno que es particularmente
susceptible a una intervención, a un daño o incluso a la destrucción
debido a sus características físicas, a las funciones e interacciones de
los organismos que lo habitan, y a los impactos que ellos sufren
producto de actividades humanas o del ambiente circundante.
Los efectos de las actividades del ser humano sobre el medio
marino, ha despertado un creciente interés, en particular en
relación con los efectos de la pesca sobre ecosistemas marinos
vulnerables, como son los montes y cañones submarinos, siendo
los montes submarinos y los corales de aguas frías los ecosistemas
que enfrentan las amenazas más inmediatas (Morato & Pauly,
2004; FAO, 2007; Yáñez et al., 2008; Gálvez, M.).
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Arrecifes de coral
Zonas de desove y
crianza
Zonas de alimentación
Montes submarinos
Ventanas hidrotermales
Mares semi-cerrados
Islas pequeñas
Cañones marinos
Praderas de algas
Estuarios
Vertientes Marinas
Coral pétreo, coral negro y gorgonia; Gentileza de Alejandro Bravo
En Chile: La Ley General de Pesca y Acuicultura, modificada
mediante la Ley N° 20.657, incorpora la protección de los
ecosistemas marinos vulnerables en las aguas jurisdiccionales
de la nación.
Gentileza de Luis-Tossel.com l www.buceopichidangui.cl
Second Workshop on reproductive and
spawning indices in anchovy
Final Symposium to present 16 results of
the HCLME Project
Chile + Peru official top level agreement to
cooperate in subjets regarding climate change
During COP 20 Fishing private industry of Peru,
Chile and Ecuador signed commitment for
sustainability of marine species of the South Pacific
11. Long history of Climate change in the HCLME
Peru and Chile among the most affected by Climate Change
Barange et al 2014
CHIMÚ FEDERATION (sXIV)
Many evidences of past Climate Changes in PeruChile (e.g. at the beginning of the Inka expansion
toward 1470)
• Little Ice Age matches the Inka expansion.
• Cities were abandoned in the south Andes due to
draughts.
• Inkas confronted the other ancient Peruvian empire, the
Chimus. Inkas seek the access to the art of sailing and
marine resources.
• Much before, 5,000 years BP Aspero, Bandurria and Caral
flourished and then buried in the sand. Just 30 years ago we
discovered them.
• Climate change modified several times the coastal areas,
also to make us remember that most of the HCLME should
be tropical
• Andean civilization has a costal origin, the Quechua
language is coastal though adopted by Inkas, a sample of
deep changes in society.
Torero 2001
Gutiérrez & Aguilar 2006
No to be afraid by the variability, but we must prepare ourselves to diversify and mitigate
TARDIO
MEDIO
HOLOCENO
TEMPRANO
LGM
GLACIAL TERMINAL
LGM
TEMPRANO
A) Anchoveta
B) Sardina
C) Jurel
D) Caballa
E) Agujilla
F) Merluza
G) Mictófidos
H) NN
Edad (miles de años antes del presente)
Salvatecci 2013
“more recently” LIA drastically modified the distribution of fishing resources
D. Gutierrez et al 2008
Reclutamiento
Two possible scenarios regarding the future of the HCLME: changes in the “optimal
window” toward cooler or warmer conditions
(5-6 m/s)
++ turbulencia
++ pérdidas de
huevos y larvas
--afloramiento
-- productividad
upwelling
débil
BAJO
Window plenty
of eggs and larvae
Cury & Roy (1989), Bakun & Weeks (2008)
moderado
fuerte
ALTO
Turbulencia
Velocidad del viento
Then, there are expansions of groups of species, and a contraction in others
Fuente: Tarazona et al 2003, modificado por Gutiérrez 2014
Expansion of the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ)
Oxígeno disuelto a 150 m
persistentemente bajo
D.Gutiérrez et al. 2009, WODC
Oxiclina
somera
Stramma et al. 2008
North-Central HCLME is cooling, but how long this could last ?
Modelado End-to-End
Most possible scenario is not favorable to recruitment: more retentions with less productivity. Mitigation: to improve
conditions for artisan fishing, and to promote mariculture on benthic resources and microalgae
Impacto del CC: ROMS/PISCES/IBM-ichtyoplancton
•
•
•
•
El CC puede tener un alto impacto sobre el éxito del reclutamiento de peces pelágicos pequeños
(anchoveta, por ejemplo)(< viento < afloramiento).
Se ha diseñado modelos ROM, PISCES e IBM para los escenarios pre-industrial (PI) y para 4xCO2
(cuatro veces la concentración de CO2 comparada con la era PI) respecto a la determinación de un
área con óptimas condiciones para la sobreviviencia larval.
La retención larval sobre la plataforma será mayor, pero se incrementa la estratificación térmica
debido al calentamiento global, y la oxiclina podría elevarse.
El incremento de la retención larval es descompensado por un menor afloramiento.
Brochier et al 2013
Warm conditions, benefited species
PERICO
JUREL
Pelagicos
ATUN
SAMASA
SARDINA
CABALLA
Demersales
MERLUZA
TOLLO
FALSO VOLADOR
Costeros
LISA
LORNA
COJINOVA
PULPO
Invertebrados
LANGOSTINO
CARACOL
CONCHA DE ABANICO
PERCEBES
Macroalgas
ULVA LACTUCA
D. Gutiérrez et al 2011
CHITA
Cool conditions, benefited species
Pelagicos
ANCHOVETA
Demersales
LENGUADO
Costeros
PEJERREY
Invertebrados
MACHETE
CANGREJO
ALMEJA
ERIZO DE MAR
CHORO
munida
Macroalgas
D. Gutiérrez et al 2011
CALAMAR LOLIGO
MACHA
ALGAS PARDAS
Lessonia sp.
Macrocystis
COP 20 Agenda, December 2014, Lima, Peru
COP 20, Lima, December 2015 (COP 21)
Fifth assessment report IPCC – 2014 (january 2015)
• Oceans have raised and warmed
• Snow and ice reduced
• Gases concentration increased
Perú:
Strong negative trend of rains but warming of
the Mantaro Valley.
Air temperature increased in the Andes (19642006)
Average rain rate decreased in the Amazon
(1964–2003).
7 out of 9 river basins have crossed a critical
threshold. Flow of rivers in the “Cordillera
Blanca” is decreasing.
Chile
Emissions account for 0,2% of the
world
But sustained increase of emissions
Vulnerable to CC according to IPCC
criteria
No available studies on the impact of CC on marine species
However it has been
predicted an overall
decrease of the abundance
between 6 to 20% by 2050.
Peru-Chile economies
impacts, food security in risk.
Climate Change: a crucial aspect that should enter into the
public-private fishery agenda of both countries, we are on time
• All possible scenarios are focused on the changes of biogeochemical alterations
and forcing the productivity and abundance-distribution of key species.
• Currently, high ocean productivity is expressed in relatively high anchovy and
squids biomass, but not in other groups (e.g. coastal and demersal). Is highly
convenient to promote the aquiculture of organisms which do not requiere feeds.
• Anyway still it has not been made a deep diagnostics on the impacts climate
change could bring to the fisheries in the HCLME.
• There is then a need to model socioeconomic scenarios to strength the
guvernmental and private intervention regarding management of risks and
opportunities of CC.
Marine Sciences in Chile-Peru in good shape, however are needed funds for
research and a broader cooperation between scientists of the world
Fuente: IRD-CSA-UPCH-IMARPE
We are already able to monitor key components in 3 and even 4D
Depredadores
Medios
tecnológicos
Barcos de pesca
Peru
Peces y presas
Zona Mínima de Oxígeno
Bertrand et al 2011
http://humboldt.iwlearn.org/es
"In God we trust, all others bring data“
Prof. William Edwards Deming