Post IPO Transformation of KenGen

Geothermal Exploration
and development in
Olkaria
Cyrus Karingithi
[email protected]
[email protected]
Olkaria Geothermal Power Project, Naivasha, Kenya
Disclaimer:
No part of this report may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written
approval from KenGen. All the information contained herein was prepared for information to the
German Parliamentarians visiting Kenya
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GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL IN KENYA
> 10,000MW in over 23 sites
Menengai Block
(1,600MW)
(Drilling Ongoing)
105 MWe tender
awarded to private
developers
Olkaria Block(1,200MW)
(i)Installed 636 MW
(ii) Developing 560MW
(the first 140MWe
Olkaria V advertised)
Private developers
already licensed at
Olkaria, Akiira and
Longonot fields
Source: TMO; Internet Sources; Argeo
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Suswa,
Longonot,
Olkaria,
Eburru,
Menengai,
Arus-Bogoria,
Lake Baringo,
Korosi,
Paka,
Lake Magadi,
Badlands,
Silali,
Emuruangogolak,
Namarunu
Barrier
Mwananyamala
Homa Hills
Nyambene Ridges
Chyulu Hills
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OVERVIEW OF POWER SUB-SECTOR TODAY
Geothermal Development
Company(GDC) established in
2009 to accelerate Geothermal
Resource Assessment
Generation
Ministry of
Energy &
Petroleum
(responsible for
policy matters)
Energy
Regulatory
Commission
(ERC)
(responsible
for regulating
the energy
sector)
Transmission
& Distribution
~75% Market
Share
IberaAfrica
(108MW)
KenGen
1612 MW
EPP
(30MW)
Rabai (89MW)
IPPs
(488MW)
Tsavo (74MW)
RURAL
(9MW)
Mumias (26MW)
Thika (87MW)
UETCL
(Imports)
Upcoming
(938MW)
Kenya
Power
KETRACO
REA
Source: KenGen;
Orpower 4
(127MW)
• Wind (510MW)
• Thermal
(163MW)
• Geothermal
(247MW)
• Biomass
(18MW)
Customer
New Energy Bill
being enacted to
align the sector to
the New
Constitution…
2
GOVERNMENT AS A CO-FINANCIER OF GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS
Least expensive
Expensive
Commercial
Banks
Capital Markets
Joint Ventures
& PPPs
BOT/BOOT/
Concessions
DFIs ( World Bank
AfD, ADB,AfDB
,JICA, EIB, KfW
Government
DFIs SUPPORT – 210MW
 No resettlement needed
 All NEMA approvals granted
Source: KenGen; www.centralbank.go.ke
3
NATIONAL PEAK DEMAND
+ Suppressed
peak demand
Peak Demand (MW) – approximately 8% growth
2347
2152
1,334
Up to 2005, KenGen
could alone meet
national peak
demand
1,188
1,200
1,141
1,107
916
940
983
912
912
912
2005
2006
2007
2008
867
870
2004
Source: KenGen; Kenya Power
972
2009
1,001
2010
1,210
1,151
KenGen
Effective
Capacity
1,050
1,010
1,221
2011
2012
2013
2016
4
KENYA’S GEOTHERMAL JOURNEY FROM 1956 to DATE
~ 670MW
of Steam
Available
1981-85: Olkaria I – 45MW
1 commissioned
283
220
+117%
2003: Olkaria II – 70MW
2 commissioned
172
Little activity for ~15yrs.
No funding for geothermal.
162
144
2010: Olkaria II 3rd Unit – 35MW
3 commissioned
128
1
Source: KenGen
2
3
5
2016
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
1999
1998
1997
1996
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
67
1988
59
1988
1987
46 50
1986
41
1985
36
1984
31
1983
1982
1981
27
21 24
1980
1974
15
1979
1973
1978
4
9 11
1975
3
7
1956
79
114
103
106
100 101
96 99
94
87 91
CURRENT TRUE PEAK DEMAND
2,347
Required Capacity
30% Reserve Margin
536
Suppressed Peak Demand
343
…due to
transmission and
distribution system
weaknesses…
Current Peak
Current national
installed capacity ≈
2152MW
1,811MW
1,468
2016
… true peak …
6
GOVERNMENT TARGET ON TARIFF EVOLUTION WITH NEW CAPACITY
THAT WILL DISPLACE FUEL COMPONENT:
Cumulative Installed Capacity
7000
20
17.73
5017
14.14
11.19
10.43
10
9.03
2342
9
1664
5
37% reduction on
Industrial tariff
1000
Source:MoEP
15
11.03
3000
0
47% reduction on
Domestic tariff
13.46
12.49
4000
2000
6762
19.78
6000
5000
25
Cumulative MW
Industrial/Commercial Tariff (US$cts/kWh)
Domestic Tariff Progression (US$cts/kWh)
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
40
Tariff Progression
8000
0
7
POWER DEMAND DRIVERS BY YEAR 2016/17
MW
Iron & Steel
Smelting Industry
Standard Gauge
and Light Rail
ICT Parks
Lapsset
Total
Source: Ministry of Energy, Sector LCPDP Plan 2011-2030
2,000
1,171
675
350
•
Economic activities in
counties
•
Mining and
industries
•
Irrigation
•
Electrification of Rail;
•
Powering resort cities
and new economic
zones.
Process
4,196
8
40-MONTH GOVERNMENT 5000+MW STRATEGY
NEW CAPACITY ADDITIONS (MW)
6
TIME IN MONTHS
12
18
24
30
36
40
TOTAL
Hydro
24
-
-
-
-
-
-
24
Thermal
87
163
-
-
-
-
-
250
Geothermal
90
176
190
50
205
150
785
Wind
-
-
20
60
300
250
-
Coal
-
-
-
-
960
-
960
1,920
LNG
-
-
-
700
350
-
-
1,050
Co-Generation
-
-
18
-
-
-
-
18
339
228
810
1,815
400
1,745
201
540
768
1,578 3,393
3,793
Total 201
Cumulative
Additions
61% is Renewable Capacity and
KenGen is a key player in this
strategy…
1,646
630
5,538
9
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KENGEN: THE LEADING POWER GENERATOR IN KENYA
• In our 61st Anniversary;
• 70% Government-owned
• ~75% market share of Installed Capacity
• A member of Nairobi Securities Exchange since 2006
• ~ 1,612 MW (~ 49 % Hydro);
• ~ 2,800 Staff Compliment;
• ~ US$ 3.40 billion Asset Base;
• ~ US$ 310 million Annual Turnover;
• An ISO 9001:2008 & ISO 14001:2004 Company
Source: TMO;
10
OUR GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Generation Portfolio (MW)
517
820
30
Generation Portfolio (%) – excludes TTP*
26
1651
Wind
1,6%
Geothermal 31.3%
Thermal 17.4%
258
Hydro 49.7%
Hydro Thermal Geothermal
TTP* - Temporary Thermal Power
100%
TTP
Wind
Total
Predominantly
Hydro that
makes power
more expensive
during dry
hydrology
2016
11
A GREEN KENGEN WITH GEOTHERMAL BASE-LOAD CAPACITY
Generation Mix Movement
110
2018
100
90
2010
80
2009
2004
70
2008
60
2007
50
1,182MW
1
13
1,643MW
3,289 MW
1.6
5
Wind
49
Geothermal
31.3
22
40
2006
30
2005
• A green
17.4
18
65
49.7
• Carbon credits
20
2004
10
2003
0
Thermal
28
2010
2016
KenGen
by 2018 with
~50% of
installed
portfolio from
geothermal…
Hydro
will also boost
revenues
2019
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OUR STRATEGY TO 2018
Great
company
KenGen Today
~ 1,405MW
Horizon 1
(2008-2012)
Horizon 2
(2013-2018)
Horizon 3
Beyond 2018
10 yrs+
5-10 yrs
Explore expansion
opportunities
Next 5 yrs
While
stabilizing
supply,
KenGen must
prepare for
sustainable
growth in
future
Stabilise situation
in Kenya
Create sustainable
power growth in
Kenya
• Improve efficiency to
• Deliver optimal future
•
•
Good
company
•
boost supply
Deliver ongoing
projects timely
Manage peak demand
and emergency power
Prioritise and kick-start
future projects
Capacity addition
Total Capacity
Source:TMO
KenGen 2007 (918MW)
•
•
projects on time and
budget (e.g., geothermal,
wind)
Grow supply ahead of
demand to establish
reserve margin
Optimise project portfolio
• Drive expansion beyond Kenya
• Establish a strong African
footprint
• Leader in technology and
innovation
Time
~500MW
>1,500MW
~1,500MW
~3,000MW
Year 2030
~9,000MW
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OUR GROWTH STRATEGY
Targeting 980 MW
additional geothermal
by 2024
…estimated
capital
outlay ~
US$ 5bln…
600
… ~50MW early
leasing generation
on tender…
350
Olkaria I U6
140
140
Coal
Wellheads
Olkaria 8
Olkaria 7
2019
Meru Wind
Olkaria VI
Olkaria V
Wellheads
Total 2024
Source: TMO; BDS Division
70
100
2101
140
280
Olkaria I&IV
20
Ngong Wind
2013 - MW
1,239
1651
2016
140
70
3331
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COMMITTED GEOTHERMAL PROGRAMME
No.
Plant
Olkaria IV unit
1 1&2
Olkaria I unit
2 4&5
3 Wellhead
4 Olkaria I Unit 6
5 Olkaria V
6 Olkaria VI
Sub-Total
Capacity
(MW)
Estimated
Cost MUSD
150
491
150
491
70
130
70
194
140
491
140
491
700
2,165
Comm year
Status
2014
Commissioned
2014
Commissioned
2015
Construction in
progress (67MW
Commissioned)
Construction to
start 2016
2016
2019
2019
Construction to
start 2016
Drilling & JV
Partner/Financing
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OLKARIA I&IV 280MW PROJECT: Utilizing a Cross-Continental
Collaboration both engineering and financing
Tariff ~ 7 Uscts/kWh. One of
the most competitive
renewable project in Kenya
Olkaria I&IV 280MW Geothermal
Project (September 2014)
1 Kenya (GoK)
Multi-financing (KenGen, GoK, EIB, AfD, KfW, JICA, IDA ~ US$ 1 billion)
7
Steam
Field
Development
[Lot A –
IDA, KfW,
KenGen]
Substation &
Transmission
[Lot C EIB,
KenGen]
US$ 138m
US$ 27m
3
4
Power
Plant
Construction
[LotB1&B2
KfW, JICA,
AfD, EIB
KenGen]
US$382m
6
Consultancy &
Administration
[Lot Zero –
KfW,
KenGen]
US$30m
2
Geothermal Steam Drilling – [GoK, KenGen]
(June 2007- Aug 2012)~US$330m
1
Source: KenGen;
Local
Infrastru
cture &
RAP
[Lot D –
IDA,
KenGen]
US$36m
5
2 New Zealand (SKM)
3 China (Sinopec)
4 India (KEC )
5 Kenya
(Local Companies)
6 S.Korea (Hyundai) &
Japan (Toshiba/
Toyota Tsusho)
16
Olkaria IV: 150MW – Commissioned
17
Olkaria I UNIT 4 & 5: 150MW – Commissioned
18
New Discoveries: 30 MW Well (among the largest
Geothermal Wells in the World)
Direct Cash Savings by
Striking one 30MW Well
USD 35 Million!
Source: KenGen; TMO; BDS
19
GEOTHERMAL STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT
Stakeholder
Management
Source:
KenGen;
•
Creating mechanisms to deal
with local community issues
•
Environmental & Social
Impact Management
•
Dealing with regulatory
authorities and government
institutions
20
KenGen/PARK INTERACTION
• Hells Gate National park since
1984
• KWS-MoU since 1994
• ESIAs always undertaken
• Mitigation measures
implemented continuously
Meeting between Consultants,
KenGen and KWS
Loops on animals routes
21
STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT
1. Elaborate Resettlement Action
Plan (RAP) and all inclusive
Stakeholder Committees
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Education
Health
Water
Transport
Roads
Environmental conservation
Built Schools
22
STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT
Stakeholder Coordination Committee
RAPIC - Operates
Independently
Employee SubCommittee
RAP
Implementation
Committee
Economic
Benefits
Committee
Environmental
Management
Committee
23
TRANSFORMING LIVES
24
TRANSFORMING LIVES
25
TRANSFORMING LIVES
Old School
26
TRANSFORMING LIVES
New School
27
KENGEN OLKARIA GEOTHERMAL SPA
28
THE ONGOING WELLHEAD 70MW PROJECT…
Wellhead Generation
29
OUR INNOVATION IN GEOTHERMAL
Directional Drilling
Source:KenGen, TMO
•
This reduces drilling cost by optimizing time, civil and rig-move
expenses.
30
PROPOSED KenGen INDUSTRIAL PARK
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THANK
YOU…
God Bless Kenya
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