Presentation: Basics of Weather Observation and Forecasting

CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP ON LOCAL FLOOD
FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM
PROCEEDINGS
28 – 30 May 2008
Hiyas Convention Center, City of Malolos
Province of Bulacan
Organized by the
Provincial Government of BulacanProvincial Disaster Coordinating Office (PDCO) and
Communication Operators League of Bulacan (COLB)
In coordination with
Pampanga River Flood Forecasting & Warning Center (PRFFWC),
Flood Forecasting Branch (FFB) of the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Hon. Joselito R. Mendoza
Provincial Governor, Bulacan
Visit us @
www.bulacan.gov.ph/pdcc
Email us at: [email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Telephone: +63 (45) 791-1053/1861/ Telefax: +63 (45) 791-1053
1. Background:
The Local Flood Forecasting and Warning System or more popularly known as Communitybased Flood Forecasting and Warning System (CBFFWS) is a locally based operational flood
forecasting and warning activities of a community that aids them in mitigating the effects of
flooding in their area. It is a non-structural flood disaster mitigating activity that is simple in
design and operation, relatively cheap, easy to sustain and most of all the social and moral
responsibilities of the community (residents) and its leaders, the Local Government Unit
(LGU), are enhanced through their direct and active participation. The ultimate goal of the
CBFFWS is to protect life and property by achieving and maintaining a high-level of
community preparedness through timely flood warnings. The system is more important to
areas that are prone to flash floods.
The true essence of a CBFFWS is community empowerment. Empowering the people of the
community to protect, prepare and make them resilient against the disastrous effects of
floods. The community and its LGU are in the best position to undertake preparedness
measures against floods.
A CBFFWS is needed in order to provide the community’s disaster response personnel of
advance flood information that can be readily translated to community response. Flood
information should be directly linked to disaster response actions of the community such as
preparedness and evacuation activities. The main task of the community leaders is to
organize, do drills and lead residents to take appropriate actions during flood events.
Another important purpose (long-term) of a CBFFWS is to provide information for water
resources management as a support to daily decisions to water allocation issues through
continuous hydrological observation and analysis of its database.
There is a real need to strengthen the CBFFWS in every community, as this is one of the
more potent non-structural flood disaster mitigation programs on a community level. This has
been the main reason for organizing a capacity building workshop on local flood forecasting
and warning system as part of its sustainability programs.
2. Workshop description and expectations:
The workshop program is a short training course designed specifically for personnel manning
CBFFWS Operations Center (Action Center, Monitoring & Info Center, etc.) and may include
those doing rainfall and river stage monitoring / observations and carrying-out flood warnings
and related information activities within the framework of the CBFFWS of a community.
The program focuses on the basics of meteorological and hydrological observations and
analyses geared to help the community, the CBFFWS personnel, in their decision-making
during times of inclement weather situation, particularly on carrying-out flood disaster
preparedness and prevention.
After the course, participants are expected to be able to:
• generally interpret the significance in changes of some meteorological observed
elements such as pressure, temperature and other weather variables;
• interpret the information contained in weather forecasts, weather bulletins, flood
advisories, flood bulletins and other weather-related information;
• be able to interpret satellite imageries (webpage uploaded image)
• be able to do monitoring of hydrological data, formulate flood warning information
within their target / monitored area;
• be able to develop very simple flood forecasting tools within their area based on
available data;
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be able to develop basic warning levels of preparedness within the framework of
their CBFFWS;
be able to work on possible sustainability programs tied-up with their CBFFWS;
3. Workshop and Accommodation Venue:
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Hiyas Convention Center, City of Malolos, Bulacan
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Malolos Resort Club Royale
4. Directory of Workshop Participants:
Gov. Joselito R. Mendoza (4th from right, 2nd row) and Dir. Amparo
(beside Gov. Mendoza) with some of the workshop Participants.
Directory of Workshop Participants
( Region III)
( Regions IV, VI, VIII )
(City / MDCC Province of Bulacan)
5. Workshop Guests/Speakers
DR. LEONCIO A. AMADORE
e-mail address: [email protected]
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Professional Lecturer, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM),
College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City
Doctor of Philosophy (Meteorology), University of the Philippines
Former Director, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Resource panelist in the documentary on Climate Change “SIGNOS”, Channel 7
GMA TV
DR. ROSA T. PEREZ
e-mail address: [email protected]
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Consultant, Researcher (Hydrometeorology)
Present Affiliations:
o Project Leader, Adaptation Assessment to Sea Level Risk Impacts (Obando
and Navotas City), PAGASA and funded by International Development
Research Center
o Project Leader, Research Mapping for Sustainable Development (Baclayon,
Bohol), Manila Observatory and funded by Ayala Foundation
o National Climate Expert – Regional review of the economic cost of Climate
Change in Southeast Asia, Asian Development Bank and funded by the
British Government
B.S. Chemical Engineering, UP; MS in Meteorology, UP; Doctor of Philosophy
(Meteorology), UP
Resource panelist in the documentary on Climate Change “SIGNOS”, Channel 7
GMA TV
Director NERI G. AMPARO
e-mail address: [email protected]
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Regional Director of Office of Civil Defense, Region III
Graduate of Journalism, University of Sto. Tomas
Former Assistant Regional Director of Office of Civil Defense, Region IV
Former Chief of Operations of the National Disaster Coordinating Council
Mr. ARMANDO P. TARUC
e-mail address: [email protected]
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B.S. Civil Engineering, Mapua Institute of Technology
Hydrology Training Course, PAGASA-JICA
Present position: Senior Weather Specialist, OIC of Pampanga River Flood
Forecasting & Warning Center, Flood Forecasting Branch, PAGASA, DOST
Former Engineer with the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)
Mr. HILTON T. HERNANDO
e-mail address: [email protected]
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B.S. Management & Industrial Engineering (MIE), MIT; B.S. Electronics &
Communications Engineering (ECE), MIT; Post-Graduate Course in Hydrology,
University of New South Wales, Australia
Present position: Weather Facilities Specialist II, Pampanga River Flood Forecasting
& Warning Center, Flood Forecasting Branch, PAGASA, DOST
Ms. PERLITA G. MENDOZA
Provincial Administrator – Bulacan
Tel: (044) 791-1548: e-mail address: [email protected]
6. Workshop Facilitators/ Secretariat:
Ms. Felicisima L. Mungcal
Assistant Department Head and PDCC Executive Officer - Bulacan
Telefax (044) 791-1053: e-mail address: [email protected]
7. Workshop Schedule of Activities:
Time
Activity / Topic
Lecturer
Day 1
Registration
Opening Ceremonies
Bulacan PDCO
Invocation
National Anthem
Introduction of participants
Welcome Remarks
Training/Workshop expectations
9:30 am – 10:30 am
Basics of Weather Observations & Forecasting Dra. Rosa T. Perez
10:30 am - 10:45 am Break
10:45 am - 12:00 noon Weather Systems in the Philippines
Dr. Leoncio A. Amadore
Climate Change: Extreme Weather Events
12:00 noon - 1:00 pm Lunch Break
1:00 pm - 3:00 pm
Profile of Disaster Management in the Phils.
Director Neri Amparo
(Provisions on the use of Calamity Fund)
3:00 pm - 3:15 pm
Break
3:15 pm - 4:30 pm
Interpretation of Weather Forecast
A. Taruc / H. Hernando
Advisories & Bulletins
Tropical Cyclone tracking
4:30 pm - 6:00 pm
Presentation from participants:
Workshop participants
Watershed features, flood warning activities, etc
6:00 pm - 7:30 pm
Dinner
Day 2
8:30 am - 9:30 am
Basic Satellite Imagery interpretation & analyses A. Taruc / H. Hernando
9:45 am – 10:00 am
Break
10:00 am - 12:00 am Basic Hydrology
A. Taruc / H. Hernando
Basin / watershed features
12:00 am – 1:30 pm
Lunch Break
1:30 pm - 3:30 pm
Hydrological Observation & analyses
A. Taruc / H. Hernando
3:30 pm - 3:45 pm
Break
3:45 pm - 5:30 pm
Development of a simple database for FFWS
A. Taruc / H. Hernando
Workshop Proper
5:30 pm - 6:30 pm
Dinner
Day 3
8:30 am – 9:30 am
General flood forecasting for a small watershed A. Taruc / H. Hernando
9:30 am – 10:00 am
Snacks / Break
10:00 am – 11:30 am Strengthening of LFFWS issues
A. Taruc / H. Hernando
LFFWS related workshop / Breakout session
11:30 am – 12:00 noon Closing Ceremonies
Bulacan PDCO / etc
Reflections
Awarding of certificates
Closing Remarks
12:00 noon – 1:00 pm Lunch Break
1:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Tour of Bulacan CBFFWS rain and water level Bulacan PDCO / etc
Gages / PDCO / etc /
various tourist spot within the province
5:30 pm - night time
Socials / free time
8:00 am - 8:30 am
8:30 am - 9:30 am
8. Summary of Workshop Presentations
Presentation: Basics of Weather Observation and Forecasting
Presented by Rosa T. Perez, Ph.D.
Weather is generally defined as the state of the atmosphere at a particular time and at a
particular place. Climate, however, is the average of weather over a period of time and
accordingly requires at least a period of 30 years to define a standard or normal climate over
a definite region or area.
Weather variables that are normally observed are temperature, pressure, water content
(humidity, rainfall) and wind. These variables characterize the physical state of the
atmosphere at a particular time. Understanding the changes of these variables for a certain
period of time will somehow give one an idea of what sort of weather is expected in the
succeeding hours to come. By incorporating observations of weather variables with scientific
analyses, it is possible to forecast a day or several days of the general or specific weather
that is likely to prevail over an area. Hence, weather forecasting is basically predicting, either
by observation and/or scientific analyses, how the present state of the atmosphere will
change with respect to time.
Nonetheless, other weather forecasting techniques such as folklore forecasting and animal
behavior have still remained as part of the rural community’s means of predicting the
expected state of the atmosphere; and have stayed long before scientific instruments,
observations and analyses had been in placed and used.
Presentation: Weather systems affecting the Philippines
Introduction to Extreme events and Climate change
Presented by Leoncio A. Amadore, Ph.D.
The common weather systems affecting the Philippines includes the Thunderstorm,
Southwest (Habagat) and the Northeast (Amihan) Monsoons, the Inter-tropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ), Easterly wave, Cold Front and the Tropical Cyclone (TC). These systems
normally bring heavy rains causing floods other than the strong winds associated with a TC.
While the TC, particularly the typhoon, remain to be the most violent of these weather
systems, floods due to heavy, intense and continuous rains cause the most number of deaths
and damage to property (infra and agriculture).
A relative increase in global temperature due to greenhouse gases (aerosols,
chlorofluorocarbons, etc) and other related activities are expected to cause a significant
change in the earth’s general climate. Because of climate change, extreme
hydrometeorological events such as stronger typhoons, and severe monsoons causing
widespread and longer floods, drier droughts, hotter days and cooler nights, and other similar
extreme situations are now unequivocally expected to happen.
Presentation: Profile of Disaster Management in the Philippines
Provisions on the use of Calamity funds
Presented by: Director Neri G. Amparo
The Philippines is located along the typhoon belt in the Pacific making it vulnerable to
typhoons and storm surges. It is also located along the “Pacific Ring of Fire”, between two
tectonic plates (Eurasian and Pacific), which are volcanic and earthquake generators. By dint
of geography, therefore, the country is open to many forms of natural disasters.
Disaster management (DM) response in the country during the 1970’s was more on relief and
rehabilitation. By 1980’s it was disaster preparedness and response (DPR). These are
measures taken prior, during and shortly after a disaster event. In the 90’s to early 2000, DPR
was incorporated with the concept of reducing effects of natural disaster (disaster and
development). The present initiative of DM now includes DPR, disaster and development, and
natural disaster risk reduction. The present framework puts emphasis on actions taken in
addressing disaster risk and vulnerability of communities to hazards.
Provision on the use of local calamity funds other than the usual financial and medical
assistance to victims, dependents and immediate families, include the preparation of
relocation sites / facilities, disaster preparedness training and other pre-disaster activities.
Presentation: Weather-related Information and Interpretation
Presented by Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
Weather-related information is readily available in the tri-media, the Internet and other means
of info-messaging devices (ex. by text or SMS) on a regular basis (daily weather forecast).
Other forms of weather info are issued whenever deemed necessary such as weather
advisories, severe weather bulletins, gale warnings, shipping and aviation forecasts, etc.
However, most of the weather-related info materials provided to the public are not easily
understood. Hence, there is a real need for the info to be simplified or explained so that they
will be well understood. In plain simple sense, timely, clear and understandable weatherrelated info will mean an effective message for public response and preparedness.
Presentation: Basic Satellite Imagery Interpretation and analysis
Presented by Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
The advent of satellite technology, particularly weather satellites, has weather satellite images
been attached to almost all weather-related information in the TV, Internet and in paper.
Although these images have been presented quite often, still remains the fact that few
understand the basic information it carries.
Instruments carried by weather satellites can record different wavelengths including ultraviolet
(UV) radiation, visible light, near-infrared (IR) radiation, longwave IR, and microwave
radiation. Albedo of an object is the extent to which it diffusely reflects light from the sun
(reflectivity). The measurement of albedo of an object can provide the basic idea on the
object’s characteristics.
Weather satellite images carry a whole lot of information. It is important that somehow these
information whether just on a basic level can be understood by the public, or the CBFFWS
personnel, for better awareness of weather satellite images and weather-related information.
Presentation: Basic Hydrology / Hydrologic cycle
Basin / watershed features
Presented by: Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
Hydrology is the study or knowledge of water. The science of hydrology is important in many
aspects particularly in the following areas: Agriculture / irrigation, hydropower, inland water
navigation / transportation, river structures, infrastructures, watershed management &
planning, water supply, and flood disaster mitigation.
Hydrologic cycle is the cyclical movement of water from the atmosphere to the land surface
and several meters below ground surface. Runoff cycle is that phase of the hydrologic cycle
that deals mainly with the movement of water from its rainfall form down to its streamflow
form. This phase is importantly tied-up with basin or watershed features as mainly the land
surface characteristics and other man-made structural forms define water flow & movement.
Presentation: Hydro Parameters
Hydrological Observation and Analyses
Presented by Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
Hydrological parameters include rainfall, river stage, evaporation, etc; hydrographic
parameters include river cross-sections, river velocity, river profile, flood extent, etc. These
are the most important parameters involved when dealing with surface water hydrology,
particularly when dealing with floods.
Hydrological observation requires regular monitoring and recording of hydrological
parameters for analyses to be used for many hydrological applications. For flood warning
operations, real-time monitoring is of extreme necessity for the timely flood warnings and
information after proper analyses of observed data has been considered.
Presentation: Flood Forecasting & Warning Methods for Community-based Flood
Forecasting and Warning System (CBFFWS)
Presented by Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
Setting-up a CBFFWS requires the need for an operations center (OC) to handle the
watershed’s database and to provide timely flood warning to the target community. The
database feature in the CBFFWS can be use in many aspects of a community’s development
other than being a primary source for the community’s flood warning system. Attributes of a
well organized database requires user-friendly means of encoding, compatible with a lot of
system and can be readily used for quick analyses.
A simple flood forecasting model for an OC of a CBFFWS is necessary to fully utilized its
database resources and to provide effective flood warnings when deemed necessary. One of
the simplest models is relating an upstream river stage with a downstream river stage or what
is termed as the stage-to-stage correlation. The purpose of doing correlation is to allow us to
make a prediction about one variable based on what we know from another variable. When a
good database exist in an OC then it is possible to work out more definitive FFWS models not
only for flood warning operations but also for other related watershed development programs.
Proper form and issuance of flood warnings is also one aspect that should be looked into by
an OC. Flood information should be clear, concise and timely in order for the community to
respond appropriately in times of inclement weather conditions. Hence, it is important that
proper coordination and agreement with the locals and the OC be exercised when issuing
flood warning information.
Presentation: Strengthening of Local Flood Forecasting & Warning in your Area
(Capacity Building)
Presented by Armando P. Taruc and Hilton T. Hernando
Some important features that can be adopted in an existing CBFFWS are as follows:
- Flood monitoring by CCTV (closed-circuit television) Real-time river situation
monitoring thru real-time data inflow and video feed-ins from the CCTV
- Color-coded and reflectorized river monitoring stage
- Promotion of the OC as the information hub for watershed hydrological data; school
field trip station; tie-ups with other related agencies or NGO’s
- Information dissemination thru proper channels; dedicated warning stations such as
community radio station, church, etc.
- Integration of automatic warning facilities base on river rise or rainfall intensity
criterions (2 stage automatic warning system)
- Flood level memorials and signs for flood comparative studies and community
awareness
- Integrated studies relative to other disasters such as slides-induced rainfalls and
floodwater-borne diseases
- Creation of a dedicated webpage that will inform prospective visitors and tourist of
situation over the area, also as promotion of its CBFFWS, etc.
- Communication back-up system during times of power failure
- Post-flood reports for documentation and for studies in the possible upgrading of
CBFFWS procedures
- Updating of flood warning models
- Setting-up of info network thru the establishment of a regional or national organization
of local flood warning systems in the country.
The abovementioned features are highly dependent on the structure of the local flood warning
system in the community. However, basic or part integration of these features can be
beneficial in the community’s overall flood disaster mitigation and a possible resource inflow
for community development.
9. List of Presentations from the Participants:
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Binahaan River Local Flood Early Warning System, Leyte, Philippines –presented by
Mr. Paul Mooney
Ormoc City Presentation by Hon. Jose C. Alfaro, Jr., Councilor, Ormoc City
The Jalaur River Basin – presented by Mr. Rey Genine
Flood Control Master Plan for Bucayao and Mag-Asawang Tubig Rivers in Oriental
Mindoro – presented by Engr. Francis Bayani M. De Guzman
Bulacan CBFFWS – presented by Mr. Raul D. Agustin
(note: copies of the presentation/s can be requested from the PDCO Bulacan. Participants
were also provided with CDs)
10. Workshop Recommendations:
Considering the depth of topics that have been introduced to many of the participants in this
workshop and likewise the importance of a CBFFWS program in a community setting
particularly in communities that are prone to flooding, it is quite necessary that a similar and a
continuing program of activities on this line of undertaking be carried out on a regular basis.
This is one way of ensuring the sustainability of a system in every watershed area.
Another point of consideration and highly recommendable during the workshop was the need
to set-up an organization of network of local flood warning systems in the country. There is a
real need for information and data interaction between watersheds with CBFFWS. In this
regard, one of the agenda that should be tackled in the next proposed workshop should be on
organizing a confederation (for info network) of local flood warning systems in the Philippines
11. Workshop Related Sites:
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www.bulacan.gov.ph/pdcc
www.leyte.org.ph/binahaan
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ffb/CBFFWS_%20Guidelines.pdf
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ffb/PRFFWC_news.htm
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http://emi.pdc.org/soundpractices/Metro-Manila/MM-SP13-Barangay%20FloodWarningSystem.pdf
10. Workshop-related Pictures / Activities
Awarding of certificates to CBFFWS participants
Participants visited the Bulacan
PDCC Operations Center.
Ms. Liz Mungcal, showing the
map of Pampanga River Basin.
Provincial Capitol Building of
Bulacan.
Participants posing inside the
Ninoy Aquino Session Hall of
the Sangguniang Panlalawigan.
Visit at the historical Barasoain Church.
Staff Gauges under Sto. Niño Bridge in
Calumpit, Bulacan
St. John the Baptist Church in Calumpit,
Oldest Church Bulacan
Butterfly Haven Resort, Participants inside the breeding area of butterflies.
Visit at 8 Waves Waterpark in San Rafael, Bulacan