NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

NADA Commercial Truck Guide
Industry Update
May 2014

Class 8 retail pricing may have found its ceiling
Increased numbers of late-model trucks
entering market

Interest in high-mileage trucks increases in
wholesale channel
Demand for pre-DPF trucks makes investment
worthwhile

Medium duty segments showing continued
strength
Class 4 gradually recovering, Class 6
particularly strong in March
Commercial Truck Guidelines | May 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commercial Truck Market Trends ............................................................................................... 2
Economic Data ............................................................................................................................. 10
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Value Trends ........................................................ 13
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 14
COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS
Summary
The volume of trucks sold at auction roared back in March after a mediocre start to the
year, thanks to pent-up demand and the month’s traditionally strong results. Volume
through the retail channel increased mildly, potentially representing a return to monthover-month stability.
Class 8 retail pricing on average is mildly down, suggesting that late-model trucks may
have found their price ceiling. Class 8 wholesale pricing on average also ticked
downward, driven by the continued increase in number of high-mileage trucks sold. In
the medium duty market, Class 4 conventionals continue to gradually strengthen, while
Class 6 conventionals turned in a very strong month.
Major players in the new truck arena are making big bets on the used truck market, as a
special commentary explores.
Sleeper Tractors – Retail
Retail sales data submitted to NADA from dealers and
Average Retail Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Price
Mileage
$60,000
March ticked mildly downward.
$55,000
550,000
The average sleeper tractor retailed in March was 77
$50,000
520,000
$45,000
490,000
Compared to February, this truck was one month
$40,000
460,000
newer, had 4224 (or 0.8%) fewer miles, and worth
$35,000
430,000
$386 (or 0.7%) less. Compared to March 2013, this
$30,000
400,000
Source: ATD/NADA
580,000
Period
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
2
Mileage
months old, had 524,564 miles, and sold for $55,840.
Price
OEM’s shows that the overall sleeper market in
[ COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS continued ]
truck was identical in age, essentially identical in mileage, and worth $5048 (9.0%) more.
See “Average Retail Price and Mileage” graph.
Monthly Retail Sales Volume by Model Year:
Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
400
period, with the average used truck now worth over
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008)
350
$5000 more retail despite identical age and mileage.
250
200
150
100
the most common sold retail, and 2012’s are slowly
50
but surely coming on-line. In terms of mileage, trucks
Feb
Mar
Dec
Jan-14
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Feb
Mar
Dec
Jan-13
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
0
Jan-12
in the 300-399,000 range have increased in recent
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)
May
secondary market. Trucks of 2011 vintage are now
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2011)
Sales Volume
newer, lower-mileage trucks available to the
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010)
300
As we’ve stated, continued increases in our universal
average are due mainly to an increased number of
2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009)
Feb
example of how the market has shifted over this
Mar
The year-over-year comparison provides a good
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
months. See “Monthly Retail Sales Volume” graph.
Based on this positive data, why did we say that the
Average Retail Price by Model Year
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles - Adjusted for Mileage
market ticked mildly downward? Because when
viewed on an individual basis, most trucks declined
$90,000
slightly in March. Essentially, the market is
$70,000
model year, trucks are flat to slightly down. See
“Average Retail Price by Model Year” graph.
Spring market dynamics are still shaking out after an
unusual winter, so we are not yet identifying a trend.
2009
2010
2011
2012
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
bolsters our universal average - but when viewed by
2008
$80,000
Price
increasingly represented by newer trucks, which
2007
$100,000
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
We expect retail pricing in upcoming months to be stable to very mildly downward.
Sleeper Tractors – Wholesale
The wholesale channel continues to be a story of two separate markets, with trucks with
under 600,000 miles representing the late-model, higher-priced component and the
segment represented by trucks with over 800,000 miles increasing in popularity. Volume
and pricing for the high-mileage segment increased through the 1st quarter of 2014,
which is a new development.
3
On average, the typical used truck sold at auction or dealer-to-dealer in March was 86
months old, had 699,500 miles, and brought $32,183. Month-over-month, this truck
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
the average truck was 7 months newer, had 43,785
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
(or 5.9%) fewer miles, and cost $8452 (or 26.3%)
$40,000
more. See “Average Wholesale Price and Mileage”
$35,000
700,000
650,000
Price
$30,000
$25,000
600,000
$20,000
550,000
The year-over-year increase is due mainly to a higher
$15,000
number of 2009 and 2010 model-year trucks moving
$10,000
500,000
450,000
$5,000
through wholesale channels, their higher relative
Mar
Jan-14
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan-13
Nov
Sep
Jul
400,000
Jan-12
$0
pricing comprising a larger proportion of the universal
average this month.
750,000
Mileage
graph.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$45,000
May
miles, and cost $492 (or 1.5%) more. Year-over-year,
Mar
was 3 months older, had 23,965 (or 3.3%) fewer
Period
Source: NADA and AuctionNet
As for high-mileage trucks, buyers continue to pay more for trucks with over 800,000
miles, continuing a trend that began in the 1st quarter. In 2014 to date, trucks in this
mileage group make up a larger proportion of the market than they did in 2013. These
trucks are most commonly from the 2006 and 2007
model years, which are popular as the last of the pre-
Average Wholesale Price and Number of Trucks
Sold by Mileage Range - Sleeper Tractors, YTD2014
DPF models. Engines will need a major overhaul if
Price
Count
120
they haven’t had one already, but some buyers may
$60,000
100
consider this procedure worth the investment, since
$50,000
the market for pre-DPF trucks with remaining useful
$40,000
Anecdotal evidence suggests this activity is most
common in the long & tall segment, but our data
80
60
$30,000
40
$20,000
20
$10,000
$0
0
indicates aerodynamic models are also contributing
to this trend. See “Average Wholesale Price and
Mileage
Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet
Number of Trucks Sold” graph.
Given this dynamic, dealers may want to revisit their aged, high-mileage inventory, as
there may be more buyers out there now than in previous months. Establishing a
relationship with a high-mileage truck broker or buyer could pay off in inventory
reduction and potentially increased comfort with high-mileage trade-ins.
4
Count
life remains healthy outside of coastal/port regions.
Price
$70,000
We will continue to monitor this segment to determine whether these results are
evidence of a long-term trend or merely a short-term anomaly following the unusual
start to the year. Stay tuned.
Competitive Comparison
This month, we return to our benchmark 4-year-old
comparison of aerodynamic models sold through the
Average Retail Price - 4-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
Adjusted for Mileage
$90,000
retail channel. As always, the comparison is limited to
$80,000
trucks equipped with big-bore or proprietary engines.
As you can see, pricing for these trucks followed the
Price
broader market, staying similar to February or ticking
$70,000
$60,000
mildly downward. See “Average Retail Price – 4 Year-
Avg. for All Trucks
$50,000
Old Sleeper Tractors” graph.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 730/780)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (386)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Cascadia)
$40,000
The Freightliner Cascadia continues to lead the
2 per. Mov. Avg. (T660)
$30,000
aerodynamic segment, retaining that position even
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
after moving slightly downward this month. The 386,
Source: ATD/NADA
T660, and T700 returned very similar results month-
Average Retail Price - 4-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
Adjusted for Mileage
over-month, and are positioned essentially equally in
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan-14
Feb
Mar
$90,000
the marketplace.
$80,000
In the late-model market, there does not appear to
$70,000
as the T700 and 730/780, and narrow cab trucks,
Price
be a clear difference between wide cab trucks, such
$60,000
Avg. for All Trucks
such as the T660 and 386. The moderately increased
$50,000
versatility of the narrower cab design is likely
$40,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (387)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 630/670)
counterbalanced by the increased interior space of
the wide-cab trucks, at least for units with remaining
2 per. Mov. Avg. (ProStar)
$30,000
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan-14
Feb
Source: ATD/NADA
useful life in a long-haul role. A difference may
become more apparent as trucks accumulate mileage and are placed in more local/
regional roles.
For trucks that typically trail the segment average, an increased number of MaxxForceequipped ProStars were sold in March, placing downward pressure on that model’s
average. As experience with the 2011 iteration of the MaxxForce engine grows,
5
Mar
marketplace confidence appears to be improving, judging by increased volume and
pricing stability. As for other models, the 630/670 was stable month-over-month, and
the limited build of 2011 387’s resulted in no reported sales in March.
Medium Duty—Class 4 Conventionals
The Class 4 Conventional segment showed strength in
March, with average wholesale pricing for 4-7 year-
4-7 Year-Old Class 4 Conventionals
old units coming in at $17,581 - $2487 (or 14.1%)
$25,000
higher than last month, and $3274 (or 18.6%) higher
$20,000
On a quarter vs. quarter basis, Q1 2014 saw higher
pricing than Q4 2013, at $16,005 vs. $13,322,
120,000
80,000
$10,000
60,000
Price
$15,000
40,000
$5,000
20,000
$0
0
respectively. Mileage in Q1 2014 was mildly lower
than the previous quarter, at 105,307 vs. 108,282. Q1
140,000
Period
2014 was slightly better than Q1 2013, with a $776 (or 4.8%) improvement in price
despite a 6708 (or 6.4%) increase in mileage.
This higher pricing is encouraging, but keep in mind the moderately lower mileage this
month is partly responsible. Also, and more importantly, the volume of trucks reported
sold in this cohort has remained in the 40-50 unit range each month, down about 25
units from the 2012 average.
Given these results, we continue to view the Class 4 segment as gradually improving. As
this segment touches a wide variety of economic segments, we expect results in
upcoming months to roughly track the gradual improvement in the domestic economy
overall.
Medium Duty—Class 6 Conventionals
Since January, we’ve been reporting on the extremely low number of 2008-2011 model
year Class 6 Conventionals sold. Along with that low volume has come historically high
pricing. In March, the average 4-7 year-old Class 6 Conventional sold wholesale for
$25,014 – this highest average price in at least six years. Mileage was moderately low, at
6
Mileage
8.8%) lower than March 2013. See graph.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Mileage)
100,000
than March 2013. Average mileage was 98,745 –
16,499 (or 14.3%) lower than February, and 9492 (or
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Price)
136,871, continuing a trend begun in January. See
graph.
4-7 Year-Old Class 6 Conventionals
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Price)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Mileage)
$30,000
250,000
Given the low monthly volume of this cohort, it is
$25,000
useful to look at quarterly results for a basis of
higher than 4Q 2013. Lower average mileage this
quarter was largely responsible for the price
difference, coming in 23,015 (or 13.4%) lower than
Price
2014 was $24,005 – a whopping $8028 (or 33.4%)
150,000
$15,000
100,000
$10,000
50,000
$5,000
$0
0
last quarter. Year-over year, Q1 2014 was $7798 (or
32.5%) higher on price, and 35,663 (or 19.5%) lower
Period
on mileage. The Class 6 market is now priced higher than the previous post-recession
peak in early 2012.
Lower average mileage is the main factor behind the higher pricing. At the same time, a
deeper dive into the data suggests that trucks at given mileage points are bringing
moderately higher pricing in the current period. As such, our confidence in the strength
of the Class 6 market is increasing.
Special Commentary: Major Players Betting Big on Used Trucks
Recently, two of the nation’s largest sources of new and used trucks, Rush
Enterprises and Penske, opened brick-and-mortar locations dedicated solely to
used trucks. Rush currently operates one Rig Tough used truck location, and is
planning to open an unknown number of additional locations this year. Penske
Used Trucks currently has two locations, and plans to open two more by the end
of 2014.
For entities with access to the necessary capital, a major investment in used
truck infrastructure makes sense. Late-model trucks are selling for historically
high prices, and increased numbers of these trucks have been entering the
secondary market due to the return to normal build rates and shorter trade
cycles. In addition, competition between OEM’s for new truck business will likely
provide additional late-model trade-ins.
7
Mileage
comparison. Average price for the first quarter of
200,000
$20,000
In general, dedicated used truck locations provide enhanced visibility among end
users, extend services to areas otherwise not served by a dealer group, and
ensure that a used truck is marketed on its own merits as opposed to merely
being a component of a new truck deal.
Looking specifically at Penske, this move represents a shift from their traditional
wholesale model towards the retail channel, providing the end user with
medium and heavy trucks ready for immediate purchase. In terms of Rush, the
move provides potential customers increased access to trucks returning from
trade in the near future. In both cases, an expected increase in volume of tradeins is an underlying rationale.
In terms of the customer base, customer analytics have become extremely
advanced thanks to better understanding of big data, and major operators like
Penske and Rush are surely among the most-savvy when it comes to taking
advantage of all the predictive tools available.
According to ATD 20 Group data, used trucks represent a higher margin than
new trucks as a percentage of gross. Establishing physical outlets for used trucks
indicates a realization that there will be more iron to move, and there is money
to be made doing it.
Sales Volume
As predicted, March’s retail volume was slightly higher than February’s. March came in
at 6.3 trucks retailed per rooftop – 0.2 higher than
Average Number of Used Trucks Retailed per Rooftop
February. See “Average Number of Used Trucks”
8.0
graph.
7.0
6.0
March is traditionally a high-volume month, and the
contributed to sales. Thanks to fewer external factors
5.0
Count
remaining pent-up demand from the winter likely
4.0
3.0
suppressing demand, we expect increased stability in
2.0
volume in upcoming months.
1.0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
0.0
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
8
On the wholesale side, pent-up demand following the rough winter combined with
timing of our data collection processes resulted in a massive increase in number of
trucks reported sold in March. In fact, this month represented the highest volume
reported since May of 2010.
Month-over-month, March’s total of 4183 trucks was
higher than February’s by 1202 (or 28.7%). Year-over-
Total Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA
6,000
year, March 2014 was 1109 (or 26.5%) higher. See
5,000
“Total Wholesale Sales” graph.
received one additional week of sales in March
2,000
“extra” week evenly between February and March,
1,000
seasonality amplified by the severe winter. Volume
2013 Total:
39,179
0
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-13
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-14
Mar
additional volume is explained by typical early-spring
2012 Total:
34,275
3,000
compared to February. However, even if we split that
March still comes out ahead by almost 12%. That
2011 Total:
29,282
4,000
Total Sales
Due to the timing of our data collection processes, we
2010 Total:
42,320
Period
will likely return closer to the 2013 average, and we
expect auction activity in 2014 to proceed moderately higher than last year.
Conclusion
In the retail channel, Class 8 sleepers have likely seen the last of their appreciation.
Pricing should remain at or mildly off record highs in upcoming months as more latemodel trucks become available. In the wholesale channel, increased interest in highmileage trucks is the new dynamic. In the medium duty sector, Class 4 conventionals are
in recovery, albeit a very gradual one. Class 6’s may finally be coming back, although we
will need another month of sales not impacted by winter weather to gain confidence in
that assertion.
The Economic Trends section of this document contains detailed analysis of economic
factors impacting the new and used vehicle markets. Also, be sure to keep up with our
Commercial Vehicle Blog at www.nada.com/b2b for real-time updates on our market
data.
9
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS ]
just 0.1% in the January-March quarter amid a
particularly harsh winter, according to the Commerce
Department. The latest GDP figure was down from
2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of last year and
represents the weakest growth since the end of 2012.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said a drop in
exports and business investment — especially on
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from preceding period (%, SAAR)
Percent Change from Preceding Period
Growth in the U.S. economy slowed dramatically to
transportation equipment, computers and
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
-9.0
peripherals – and a fall in housing construction tied to
the weather were major factors. While worse than
expected, the sharp downturn is likely to be
temporary as growth rebounds with warmer
Quarter
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Unemployment and Labor Participation Rates
Seasonally Adjusted
Participation Rate
11.0
weather.
Unemployment Rate
67.0
10.0
66.0
a 3% annual pace, consumer spending continues to
be a bright spot. In particular, consumers shelled out
more money on health care. The Bureau of Economic
Unemployment Rate (%)
In contrast, people are still buying things. Growing at
8.0
6.0
64.0
5.0
63.0
4.0
3.0
62.0
2.0
Analysis noted that the health care increase was
61.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
1.0
driven primarily by the implementation of
the Affordable Care Act. Consumers also
65.0
7.0
Labor Participation Rate (%)
9.0
Month
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
spent more on utilities likely because of the cold
temperatures, but they cut back on clothing,
household furnishings and eating out at restaurants.
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Seasonally Adjusted
in nine years.
According to the Labor Department, the
unemployment rate plunged to 6.3% in April from
6.7% in March to reach its lowest level since
September 2008. This happened for two reasons;
employers added 288,000 jobs to payrolls, the most
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
-100.0
-200.0
-300.0
-400.0
-500.0
-600.0
-700.0
-800.0
-900.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
same month a year ago, the best April sales increase
Prior-Month Change (thousands)
Auto sales jumped 8.5% in April compared with the
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month
10
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
in two years, and the number of people looking for work fell sharply.
Employers also added more jobs in February and March than previously estimated: the
job totals for those two months were revised up by a combined 36,000. Job creation is
accelerating with employers added an average of 238,000 jobs the past three months.
That's up from 167,000 in the previous three
Existing-home sales were essentially flat in March,
while the growth in home prices moderated,
according to the National Association of Realtors.
Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest were
offset by declines in the West and South.
Total Housing Starts, Privately Owned
Seasonally Adjusted
1300.0
1100.0
Housing Starts (thousands)
months.
900.0
700.0
500.0
300.0
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in
100.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Total existing-home sales slipped 0.2% to a
March from 4.60 million in February, and are 7.5%
below the 4.96 million-unit pace in March 2013. Last
month’s sales volume remained the slowest since
July 2012 at 4.59 million.
Month
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
Three-month moving average published with a two-month lag.
190.0
The median existing-home price for all housing types
180.0
in March was $198,500, up 7.9% from March 2013.
170.0
in February and 21% in March 2013.
Total housing inventory at the end of March rose
4.7% to 1.99 million existing homes available for
sale, which represents a 5.2-month supply at the
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
accounted for 14% of March sales, down from 16%
160.0
Index Level
Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales –
Month
Source: S&P Dow Jones
current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in February.
Unsold inventory is 3.1% above a year ago, when there was a 4.7-month supply.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year,
conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.34% in March from 4.30 % in February; the
rate was 3.57% in March 2013.
11
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million in
March, the same as February, but are 7.3 % below
the 4.36 million pace a year ago. The median existing
which is 7.4% above March 2013.
Average Price Per Gallon
$ YoY Change
$4.00
$0.40
$3.90
$0.30
$3.80
$0.20
$3.70
$0.10
$3.60
$0.00
$3.50
($0.10)
$3.40
($0.20)
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million
$3.30
($0.30)
barrels per day during the week ending April 25,
$3.20
($0.40)
$3.10
($0.50)
Price Change
single-family home price was $198,200 in March,
Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations)
Average Price
Single-family home sales were unchanged at a
2014, which is 26,000 barrels per day less than the
previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91%
of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
production decreased last week, averaging over 8.6
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
Average Price Per Gallon
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
$4.05
decreased last week, averaging over 4.9 million
$4.00
increased for the 12th week in a row to $3.713 per
gallon on April 28, 2014, which is $0.030 per gallon
more than last week and $0.193 over a year ago.
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$3.95
$0.05
$0.00
$3.90
($0.05)
$3.85
($0.10)
($0.15)
$3.80
($0.20)
$3.75
($0.25)
The national average retail diesel fuel price
increased to $3.975 per gallon, $0.004 per gallon
higher than last week and $0.124 above a year ago.
Price Change
The national average retail regular gasoline price
$ YoY Change
Average Price
barrels per day.
Month
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
Month
12
[ ATD/NADA OFFICIAL COMMERCIAL TRUCK GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
May 2014 v. April 2014
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
Extended Hood
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
0.0%
0.3%
-1.3%
-0.1%
0.0%
Highway Traditional
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Local/Delivery Daycab
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.7%
-0.3%
0.0%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Medium Duty Conventional
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Vocational/Construction
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
May, 2013 v. 2014
NADA Segment
Commercial Van
Extended Hood
Highway Aerodynamic
Highway Traditional
Medium Duty Cabover
5YR
-6.5%
1.7%
7.5%
2.7%
5.5%
-19.8%
4.2%
1.9%
4YR
9.4%
5.3%
2.1%
6.6%
1.5%
11.2%
-5.4%
19.2%
3YR
-10.8%
7.1%
6.9%
6.3%
13.1%
1.1%
-14.4%
N/A
2YR
0.1%
-3.4%
10.1%
0.6%
0.6%
N/A
-7.5%
N/A
Segment
Change
-2.0%
-0.5%
6.3%
6.6%
3.2%
-8.4%
-5.6%
16.6%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2014 are compared against values for
1-year-old vehicles in CY2013.
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
YTD
Segment
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
-6.4%
-7.6%
-6.2%
-4.7%
Extended Hood
-1.5%
-3.7%
-9.0%
-6.8%
-7.1%
-5.7%
Highway Aerodynamic
-3.0%
-2.7%
-9.7%
-7.5%
-6.4%
-5.8%
Highway Traditional
-3.3%
-2.8%
-8.8%
-7.7%
-6.8%
-5.9%
-5.8%
-5.4%
-9.3%
-7.3%
-6.5%
-6.7%
Medium Duty Cabover
-4.7%
-5.0%
-4.2%
-12.5%
-7.3%
-5.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.9%
-9.4%
-6.9%
-2.9%
-3.6%
-3.4%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.3%
-3.0%
13
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
What’s New
NADA Online delivers values from 10 different NADA guidebooks including commercial trucks. Starting at $385 per
year, NADA Online is comprehensive, easy to use and includes mobile web access free with your subscription. And
since it’s web-based, there is no software to install and your whole staff can use it at the same time without the need
for additional user licenses. NADA Online provides NADA Retail, Loan and Wholesale values for truck and trailers
dating back to the 2000 model year.
If you’re looking for a small number of commercial vehicle values, the Official Commercial Truck Guide Online MiniPack provides three values online for $40.
On the Road
Stay up to date with the latest in the commercial truck industry by stopping by NADA’s Commercial Truck Blog and our
Market Overviews video section of the website. Updated twice per week by Chris, the blog provides real-time analysis
of incoming sales data from the industry’s leading used truck sales database. NADA produces a monthly market
overview video to provide further insight into the commercial truck market.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle
valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United States and
worldwide. NADA’s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined
automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction
data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government
professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business
decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more.
Senior Analyst and
Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
[email protected]
Credit Unions, Fleet, Lease, Rental
Industry, Government
Doug Ott
800.248.6232 x4710
[email protected]
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
Dan Ruddy
800.248.6232 x4707
[email protected]
Business Development
Manager
James Gibson
800.248.6232 x7136
[email protected]
Financial Industry,
Accounting, Legal,
OEM Captive
Steve Stafford
800.248.6232 x7275
[email protected]
PR Manager
Allyson Toolan
800.248.6232 x7165
[email protected]
14
NADA CONSULTING SERVICES
NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million transactions and more than
100 economic and market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to help industry stakeholders
make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team continuously provides
content that is both useful and usable to dealers, financial institutions, businesses and consumers.
Complemented by NADA’s analytics team, which maintains and advances NADA’s internal forecasting models and
develops customized forecasting solutions for clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for publishing white
papers, special reports and the Commercial Vehicle Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team strives to go
beyond what is happening in the industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it will impact the market
in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
800.248.6232 x4709
[email protected]
Senior Analyst and Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
[email protected]
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Guidelines
White Papers
Updated monthly with a robust data set
from various industry sources and
NADA’s own proprietary analytical tool,
Guidelines provides the insight needed
to make decisions in today’s market.
NADA’s white papers and special reports
aim to inform industry stakeholders on
current and expected used vehicle price
movement to better maximize today’s
opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.
NADA Perspective
Commercial Vehicle Blog
Leveraging data from various industry
sources and NADA’s analysts, NADA
Perspective takes a deep dive into a
range of industry trends to determine
why they are happening and what to
expect in the future.
Written and managed by Senior Analyst
Chris Visser, the Commercial Vehicle
Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
into industry trends and highlights
relevant events.
Connect with NADA
Read our Blog
Follow Us on Twitter
Find Us on Facebook
Watch Us on YouTube
nada.com/commercialtruck
@NADAUsedCarGde
Facebook.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is
provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint,
reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.
15

NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

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