Economic-Impact-Feas.. - City of Glenpool, Oklahoma
Transcription
Economic-Impact-Feas.. - City of Glenpool, Oklahoma
City of Glenpool, Oklahoma Economic Impact / Feasibility Study Big League Dreams August 24, 2015 City Counselors Mayor Tim Fox Vice-Mayor Momodou Ceesay Patricia Agee Jennifer Ballew Brandon Kearns Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 At Large SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Table of Contents Professional Summary . . . . Introduction . . . . . . Statement of Understanding . . . Basis of the Feasibility Study . . . The differences between BLD and a traditional park. Brand Value . . . . . . Trade Area Details . . . . . Direct Economic Impact . . . . Revenue Assumptions . . . . Indirect Economic Impact . . . . Hotel, Goods and Services Demand . . Impact Summary . . . . . Operational Details . . . . Unique Characteristics . . . . Construction, specification and quality . . Holistic Economic Considerations . . . Development Scenarios . . . . Conclusions . . . . . Items for Further Discussion . . . Feedback and Comments . . . . References . . . . . . Public Comment Form . . . . Appendix A, Construction Cost . . . Appendix B, Site Evaluation Letter . . Appendix C, Financial Summary . . . Appendix D, Economic Development Action Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 2 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Professional Summary Big League Dreams (BLD) is a for-profit sports, entertainment and service industry company that operates and maintains a full service athletic park on behalf of the cities with which they are engaged. BLD offers an attractive alternative to municipally run and managed ball fields and provides services in which most cities are not willing or fiscally able to engage. The study is comprised of three parts. The first attempts to capture the baseline economic characteristics of the BLD park through; participation rates, league play, tournament play, and peripheral expenditures to determine the potential financial impact. The second identifies the source of potential funding scenarios given the current demographics and development patterns of the City of Glenpool. Lastly, a construction cost opinion to identify the total development and implementation cost of the BLD park. The study is purposefully comprised of baseline data – that which is identified as the minimum necessary to fund operations - and determined by the most likely participation rates of the Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Assumptions based on this data are then given dollar figures for player participation, food, beverage and hotel expenditures to arrive at a cumulative total for the direct and indirect impact the BLD park would have on the City of Glenpool. The study identifies potential annual revenue of $247,640, which over the 30 year life of the park would yield $10,247,204 in taxable collections. But, during the estimated 20 year life of the bond payments, only $6,317,341 would be collected. The construction cost of the park is expected to be at least $28,802,120 including all soft costs, off site utilities and fees due to BLD. The study includes a public comment form to allow residents to submit their thoughts, supporting or concerning the proposal so that their input can be included in the public record. A construction cost opinion is included as Appendix A, with a special letter on the selected site as Appendix B. Finally, as service to the community, an Economic Development Action Plan is included in Appendix C to support the ongoing growth and development of local Glenpool economy. 3 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Introduction The City of Glenpool (City) has deliberated the potential for a high profile sports venue for at least 7 years. With two unsuccessful initiatives put to a vote of the people, the process has been passionately debated among a large group of city leaders and recreation advocates inside and outside of city government. This study is not intended to be a retrospective of previous efforts, but a point-in-time analysis of the raw data, its impact on the local economy, and the implication additional debt service would have on the future of Glenpool. Statement of Understanding The genesis of this study is the mutual desire for the City and BLD to enter into an exclusive contract for the City to fund, design, build and release to BLD to operate (generate revenue) and maintain (expense) to provide the City of Glenpool a return on a portion of its investment over a 30 year period. This publicprivate partnership allows each entity mutually exclusive access to resources it does not otherwise possess, and trade area restrictions would prevent another BLD parks from opening nearby. Basis of Feasibility Study The methodology used to conduct this study, establishes baseline data for the surrounding trade area groups most likely to use the park, then assesses the total potential increase in activity as a result of the BLD park over the 30 year contract period. The study subsequently attempts to quantify that increase in activity and evaluate the possible debt service scenarios most likely to fund the construction of the park. The total cost of the park is detailed with three financing scenarios to determine where funds could be collected if the project were to proceed. For the purposes of this study, the Glenpool population of 11,617 (2013) is used as a constant to compare and contrast the economic impact. Economic impacts are occasionally put in terms of “equivalent new residents” as a way of translating the economic impacts into more real world numbers. Nowhere in this study does BLD or the City represent that the park will provide a total return on investment of the park, its improvements or the cost of debt service to construct the park. The return on investment is calculated to include the direct impact, and indirect impact in economic activity as a result of developing the park. The differences between BLD and a traditional park. Most municipalities over 10,000 in population have a significant investment in publicly-owned recreational facilities, Glenpool is no exception. The difference though between the BLD and the municipal parks are easily recognizable and set them apart as a clear leader in the field. The first of which is the scaled down features of major league ball parks. These appear to have outfield bleachers full of fans, and stadium style seating that provides better viewing angles for the spectators as well as a full service restaurant. The second key feature is the operational and programmatic function of the park. This includes the scheduling of league play, tournaments and staffing which are necessary in providing players the level of service that is often lacking in traditional facilities with an equal number and size of fields. These two components are possible only because of the removal of the debt service obligation which covers the construction costs of the park, and the freedom to charge fees as a private entity. Being a private entity allows BLD parks to be less susceptible to public scrutiny than city councils or parks and recreation boards who would otherwise be providing a direct public good with no incentive for profit. Without the debt burden, the ballparks operate on a maintenance-only financial plan, but with the enhanced aesthetic 4 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma features of the BLD branded design, operational freedom to provide sole source vending for food and beverages and exclusive rights to the ball fields. The conditions that make BLD a favorable vendor for many municipalities is the baseline economic assumption that the municipality is already willing to invest in public facilities, and the financial difference or “delta” (which is defined as the difference in cost of a traditional park vs BLD park) is an acceptable increase in cost given the added value provided by BLD. Brand Value Due to the closely held operating structure of BLD and their extensive working knowledge of the administration of sports management operations, it is natural that the BLD brand of park is an attractive alternative to the otherwise underwhelming municipal parks that exist throughout the US. This brand value is a major consideration for many players, and a defining aspect of relocating leagues and tournaments throughout the trade area where BLD operates. Trade Area Details The potential for BLD to successfully operate in Glenpool is dependent on the population and demographic composition of the Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The reported population for the Tulsa MSA is 961,561 (2013). The Tulsa MSA would be the second smallest population where BLD would operate. Since the Tulsa trade area is smaller than those of other BLD parks, a closer inspection of the demographics is necessary to determine if attendance can be achieved for break-even operations. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that as much as 13% of the population 15 years and older in the West South Central Region participates in a range of sporting activities throughout the year. A large percentage of people 15 years of age and older who engaged in non-competitive sports for daily exercise were reported as; walking 30%, weightlifting 13.1%, cardio equip. 12.7%, swim/surf/water 8.4%, and running 7.1%. The study indicates that for persons 15 years of age and older, 1.4% are engaged in baseball or softball, and 1.2% are engaged in soccer. The Tulsa MSA has a trade area population of 961,561, with 78.8% of that population (757,711 persons) over 16 years of age. A 1.4% participation rate of this population segment would yield as many as 10,607 adult participants in baseball or softball, and 9,092 adult participants in soccer. Indicating a total of 19,699 likely adult participants in both sporting activities provided by the BLD park. For youth sports, 17% of girls reported playing baseball or softball while 24% of boys reported playing baseball on an organized team at some point during the ages of 6-17. Participation is relatively steady among 7-12 year olds on an annual basis at 12%-14%, but drops below 10% participation once students reach Junior High/Middle school age. The 16 and under population accounts for 21.2% of the total population or 203,850 persons in the trade area. A 10% participation rate for girls would yield 10,192 likely participants, and a 12% participation rate for boys would yield 12,231 likely participants. The combined youth sports trade area yields a total of 22,432 participants or 11% of their demographic. In the Tulsa MSA, the total combined participants for youth and adult leagues yields (19,699 adult + 22,432 youth) = 42,131 participants or 4.38% of the total population. This figure will be compared later to the potential revenue assumptions. 5 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Further complicating the attendance figure is the likelihood for weather-related delays to reduce the potential for far-flung participants to invest the 60-90 minute drive if games would be cancelled at a moment’s notice. Some league play may continue between available teams, but relying on an extended trade area to provide reliable and consistent team diversity increases the risk of games missed. Therefore schedule forfeits and inclement weather are included in this analysis to reduce capacity saturation to 77% of the values attributed to locally accessible teams, which equates to a reduced schedule of 40 weeks of nearly continuous activity. Direct Economic Impact The following data was derived from documents from existing BLD parks, personal interviews and the presentation given to the Glenpool City Council on September 20, 2013. The data has been adjusted where more detailed or site specific information has been made available. Otherwise this data has been confirmed to track with estimates for other 6-field BLD parks. The operational schedule of BLD is estimated at 40 weeks of nearly continuous activity. The two primary user groups can be defined as League players, and Tournament players. The leagues operate throughout weekday evenings, with weekends reserved for youth and adult tournaments, as well as corporate and private events. The following analysis breaks down league play participation and tournament participation separately, to arrive at a combined usage for the entire facility. Revenue Assumptions The revenue assumptions are intended to capture a snapshot of the direct economic impact for the largest revenue generators. The City of Glenpool will benefit from the sale of taxable items in the BLD concession stand and restaurant, but will not directly benefit from gate fees, league and tournament fees. Gate entrances are included in this analysis to support the potential for taxable sales, but are not included in the total economic impact because they are captures by BLD to fund operations. League games usually begin at 6:00pm, but can start at 5:00pm and run as late as 10pm – six hours of operation. During a given year, 100% capacity would yield as many as 7,200 games (6 fields x 6 hours x 5 nights/week x 40 weeks), beginning at 5pm through 10pm with no interruptions. During a sample week of June 2015, the BLD park in Mansfield (8-field park) had an average usage of 21.16 games per evening, resulting in an efficiency rating at 44% of capacity. The 7,560 games reported in 2013 to Glenpool city council exceeds this programmatic use capacity and this study we will assume a 50% use of the facility at the 7,200 game maximum. The purpose of the 50% efficiency is to establish a simple threshold to weigh success or failure of subsequent assumptions. A 50% usage yields 3,600 games per year. With 10-12 players per team we will estimate that at least 20 participants per game (6 fields x 6 games x 30 players and spectators x 5 nights x 40 weeks x .5) would yield at least 108,000 total visits to the 6 field BLD park. This estimate is further discounted by the fact that multiple games are played per evening, according to the league schedule. Typically 4 teams will play, the winners of those games will play against each other resulting in a total of 3 games played. In another instance, 2 teams will play and the winner will then play another team with a bye time slot. This total participation figure is discounted by an additional 15% (instead of the 25% or 33% discount on gate entrances respectively) of the assumed total, resulting in 91,800 gate entrances. League play would generate $459,000 at $5.00 per person. BLD indicates that league play participants and spectators are 6 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma estimated to generate between $4.75 and $8.00 in taxable sales of food and beverages providing between $436,050 and $734,400. After the grace period, the City of Glenpool would realize as much as $36,720 in revenue sharing (5% by contract) and $22,032 (3% city portion) in sales tax collections during league play. This combined total is $58,752 per year. Projected League Play Revenue Fig. 1 Gate Entrances Gross Sales 91,800 $734,400 Contract 5% $36,720 Sales Tax 3% $22,032 Total $58,752 Tournament play will assume the same 40 weeks of activity where each tournament can accommodate 40-50 teams (we use 45 teams as the mean for our calculations), playing two games per day on average. Most of the tournaments are double elimination, so participation is reduced dramatically by Saturday evenings. Optimistic parents of traveling team participants book hotels for both Friday and Saturday night in advance. This does not assume a full 3 days of economic contribution, but a factor of roughly 1.5 days of economic gains since games begin on Friday afternoon and run through part of Sunday. Tournaments would generate an additional 54,000 gate entrances (45 teams x 15 players and spectators x 2 days/event x 40 weeks) resulting in $270,000 at $5.00 per person. These participants and spectators are estimated to generate between $4.75 and $8.00 in taxable sales of food and beverage providing between $256,500 and $432,000 in gross revenue. After the grace period the City of Glenpool would realize as much as $21,600 (5% by contract) in revenue sharing and $12,960 (3% city portion) in sales tax collections during tournament play. Tournaments could potentially provide $34,560 in combined revenues annually. Projected Tournament Play Revenue Fig. 2 Gate Entrances Gross Sales 54,000 $432,000 Contract 5% $21,600 Sales Tax 3% $12,960 Total $34,560 Soccer leagues and flag football also contribute to weekly sales figures. Because soccer and flag football will be played in the covered pavilion, the games played are not discounted at the 50% efficiency of softball and baseball. The indoor soccer pavilion can accommodate as many as 5 games per night, (10 teams x 16 players and spectators x 5 days x 40 weeks) and generate an additional 32,000 gate entrances resulting in $160,000 at $5.00 per person. These participants and spectators are estimated to generate between $4.75 and $8.00 in taxable sales of food and beverage providing between $150,000 and $256,000. After the grace period the City of Glenpool would realize as much as $12,800 (5% by contract) in revenue sharing and $7,680 (3% city portion) in sales tax collections. Soccer and football could provide $20,480 in revenue. Projected Indoor Soccer and Football Revenue Fig. 3 Gate Entrances Gross Sales Contract 5% 32,000 $256,000 $12,800 Sales Tax 3% $7,680 Total $20,480 The total of on-site sales tax revenue collections from league, tournament, and soccer/football could be as much as $113,792 per year. This value will increase as participation rates increase and spectator attendance also increases. Summary Direct Impacts Fig. 4 Gate Entrances Gross Revenue Contract 5% Sales Tax 3% Total 7 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma 177,800 $1,422,400 $71,120 $42,672 $113,792 Sales Tax collection for the City of Glenpool for 2013-2014 were $4,707,644 or $405.23 per person based on the population estimate of 11,617 (2013). After the 3 year grace period, the direct impact of on-site revenue by BLD to the City of Glenpool would provide the equivalent of adding 147 new residents, or a 2.3% population change. Indirect Economic Impact Hotel, Goods and Services Demand With the current capacity of 300+ hotel rooms in Glenpool, the overnight capacity would reach peak levels during tournament weekends. Tournaments would field between 40-50 teams, with a rough average of 40% of those teams traveling from outside the Tulsa MSA. This would result in an average of 45 teams and 450 total participants, with 18 traveling teams (180 players and 90 spectators = 270 total) likely to stay in a hotel near the ballparks. If the hotels are currently operating at 50% capacity the additional 270 participants (assuming shared rooms for spectators) would result in a small percentage of participants seeking lodging outside of Glenpool. This overflow would lead to demand for 1 or 2 more hotels of the current size in Glenpool to accommodate a necessary diversity in price point and brand mix characteristic of other hotel clusters. The previously assumed 40 tournaments, with 270 out-of-town visitors for each event, spending on average $257 per tournament - according to a 2013 study by Oklahoma State University on another publicly funded park - ($80 Hotel / day + $48.50 / day for 2 days) would yield as much as $1,850,400 each year in gross revenue from out-of-town visitors. This figure counts the participation rate of the players and spectators at approximately $32 / day of non-hotel expenditures. The combined $257 per tournament expense included the $80 per night that would be spent on hotels. This expenditure for two nights would yield $8.00 per participant in hotel tax or a total of $57,600 ($8.00 x 180 participants x 40 tournaments per year). In-town participants could contribute another $64 (this represents a per person expenditure of $32.00 in town, and $48.50 out of town) per tournament ($0 Hotel + $32.00 / day for 2 days) yielding $691,200 per year. This is a conservative estimate based on the tournament play attracting 18,000 (450 participants during 40 weekends). The expenditure of $1,850,400 would yield annual sales tax collections of $55,512 and an additional $57,600 in hotel tax directly to the City of Glenpool for a combined total of $133,848. Indirect Revenue Impact Fig. 5 Participants Per Person $ Visitors Hotel Local Gross Revenue $97 ($48.50/day) $698,400 $160 ($80/night) $1,152,000 $64 ($32.00/day) $691,200 $2,541,600 Hotel Tax 5% Sales Tax 3% Total $57,600 $20,952 $34,560 $20,736 $20,952 $92,160 $20,736 $133,848 Using the per capita value previously determined, this is the equivalent of adding 330 additional new residents ($133,848/$405.23 average annual sales tax collection). The previously reported cumulative participation rate of 4.93% of the total MSA would yield 47,404 total participants. The 2013 estimate for total gate attendance was approximately 220,000 gate entrances, this study indicates 177,800 gate entrances as a baseline. Using the 177,800 figure, the BLD park would 8 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma generate as many as 4.6 trips annually to Glenpool for sporting activities that would otherwise travel elsewhere to play. This has the potential of attracting new retail sales that would be induced by the BLD park. Due to the limited scope of this study, induced economic impacts are not included. Based on the current growth patterns, the net impact of a doubling of population in Glenpool would significantly outpace any induced economic impact as a result of the BLD park. The assumption in this economic analysis depends on maximizing the retail potential within a 15 minute drive time of the facility, capitalizing on the overnight stays of tournament participants and providing economic diversity to prevent the influx of players, family and friends from creating a nuisance that would become unbearable to area residents. Sustaining the peaks and valleys of the flexible retail activity will require businesses to share certain services like parking, mutual access between adjacent properties and more business related functions like extended hours of operation. Creating a mix of uses as well as integrating efficient parking and loading standards will reduce the need for overdesigned parking facilities. Impact Summary The cumulative total of direct and indirect economic activity that is directly attributable to the proposed BLD park is $113,792 (direct) + $133,848 (indirect) yielding $247,640 in new sales tax collections annually. This is the equivalent of adding 396 new residents to the city of Glenpool based on the equivalent sales tax collection of the average taxpayer. Direct and Indirect Impact Summary Fig. 6 Annual Direct Impact Indirect Impact Total Gross Revenue $1,422,400 $2,541,600 $3,964,000 City Collections $113,792 $133,848 $247,640 Assuming a 2% annual growth rate on collections, the 30 year life of the contract period would yield as much as $10,247,204 in tax collections. Over the 20 year life of the bond, the same 2% annual growth rate on collections would yield $6,317,341. The remaining $3.93 M would be paid out after the bond term ends. These figures are a conservative estimate, and combined with the contractually stipulated revenue sharing could increase the potential revenue, but are not guaranteed. Operational Details One distinct quality of the Big League Dreams partnership is their extensive experience with the operations, maintenance and organizational strategy for their parks. From the interviews conducted and on-site research, Big League Dreams conducts business with no additional staffing requirements by the municipalities or counties where they operate. There may, from time to time be utilities or maintenance projects that would require municipal support, but the day-to-day function is inclusive to the Consulting Services Agreement and Maintenance and Operations agreements that will be provided to the City of Glenpool at the time of contract negotiations. This hands-off approach provides the City some distance to assess the ongoing nature of the business relationship and make adjustments to the contracts accordingly. A peripheral, but not insignificant benefit that could be realized by retailers, especially locally owned businesses, is the potential to raise the profile of the City of Glenpool as a player in regional economic 9 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma development. When tournament participants arrive by car or airplane (many players do) they will arrive through adjacent cities with Glenpool as their final destination. The ability to raise the profile of the community can, if conducted in a thoughtful way, bring value-added benefits to the community. This is evidenced by attracting chain retailers that are already located in other communities, and/or choose Glenpool as their introduction into the northeast Oklahoma market. To date, none of the presently operating BLD parks have discontinued their contract for services and left a city-owned park abandoned or in disrepair. Public documents exist detailing the concerns two BLD parks have experienced because of lower than expected attendance. It is not conclusive if low attendance was a result of non-participation of leagues within the trade area or whether concerns over park management and maintenance were an issue. Unique Characteristics An additional economic consideration that is unique to Oklahoma compared to other states is the separation of property tax collections from municipal governments. Because cities operate almost entirely off of sales tax collections, the overall potential operating budget for each city is further reduced, leaving public amenities such as parks and recreation facilities to lag behind demand. This is not just a characteristic of Glenpool and the Tulsa MSA, but of the State of Oklahoma as a whole. There is rarely, if ever, any co-participation between counties and cities on the design, construction and maintenance of recreational facilities. The possibility of creating a TIF district is the only mechanism available to municipalities to collect ad valorem taxes for the purposes of building infrastructure to support the recreation facilities. Based on the trade area analysis of existing BLD parks compared to that of the Tulsa MSA, a unique data point has emerged. The Tulsa MSA has fewer than average softball and baseball parks per capita which could indicate a latent demand for more parks, or show an evidence of lower than average participation among demographic groups. This data point with the documented decreases in league participation and the rise of obesity rates among all age groups could contribute to lower participation and therefore fewer sports parks per capita. Construction, specification and quality. BLD has previously indicated that the 6 field park can be designed and constructed for $20 million. Research conducted on other proposed and completed parks across the country indicate that this figure would be difficult to achieve without significant revisions to the scope and quality of construction. One key difference from the information presented in 2013 is that the publicly disclosed estimate provided by BLD of the ballpark has increased from $18 million to $20 million. Our comprehensive analysis shows that the cost of the park including necessary off-site utilities, on-site utility relocations, grading, drainage, dirt work, and the inclusion of all soft costs associated with the project bring the total to $28,802,120. See appendix A for the complete construction cost opinion. The identified real property poses some significant barriers to development. The degree of elevation change from the proposed water tower in the southwest corner of the site to the lowest point on the northeast corner of the site is approximately 56 feet. The cost opinion prepared to support this study indicates as much as $2.3 million in grading and drainage construction would be required. It should be noted that a complete (construction-ready) site design solution has not been prepared due to the limitations of time and scope of this study. 10 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma The method of construction delivery and contractual limitations on cost overruns will limit the exposure of the City of Glenpool and Big League Dreams from pursuing a project that does not meet the qualitative intent of the operator or the long-term returns expected by the City of Glenpool. (Schematic Design provided by the City of Glenpool) 11 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Holistic Economic Considerations Certain development milestones will allow the City of Glenpool the potential to exceed the baseline projections for economic growth and ease the debt burden created by the partnership with BLD. These development milestones would include; a 2 fold increase in local sales tax revenue, that is defined as a net transfer of 50% of total spending by residents outside Glenpool, to become sales tax generated and used by Glenpool residents. This does not mean an increase in the amount of dollars spent by residents, just a rebalancing of sales that are defined as the “gap” lost to other communities. Ultimately, the potential to attract new retailers will be led by the availability of land, at a reasonable price, for sale within a 15 minute drive of the proposed park. As traffic and further development increases over time this 15 minute (12 miles) drive time will reduce to approximately 3 or 4 miles. It is therefore vital that the City of Glenpool and its residents anticipate these changing traffic patterns and plan for growth. The following population growth models are outlines of the direction the City of Glenpool could follow, and will be reflected in the planning, infrastructure improvements and utility extensions needed to support the changing population. 12 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma High Growth Model +33% (over a 10 year period) A growth rate that exceeds that of the INCOG 2025 plan is unlikely, but worth considering due in large part to the rapid growth of other Tulsa Metro area cities, and the remaining availability of land in Glenpool. Medium Growth Model 20%-33% (over a 10 year period) This growth scenario tracks with the regional average according to the INCOG 2025 plan. Development Scenarios There are clearly risks and rewards to a large scale investment of public funds in one particular project. The success of BLD is not entirely determined by the actual activity of the park due to its financing structure, but by the overall induced effect of adjacent development that would occur around the park to capture the economic windfall of this new activity. This economic windfall should be supported by the active growth management model adopted by the City of Glenpool. The most obvious growth model worth considering is the slightly higher than average Medium Growth Model. The possible accelerators to the Medium Growth Model will provide the city the potential to sequentially scale infrastructure needs to current development. The financing of the BLD park must assume a particular growth pattern, and create an obligation for new residents to share in the funding of that debt service into the future. As the city grows, the overall budgetary burden is then eased by new residents. This increases the city sales tax collections and allows the city to readjust its financial structure therefore reducing the overall percentage the BLD obligation draws from each annual budget. The following scenarios are offered to guide the discussion on funding the BLD proposal. Scenario #1 Voter approved “Vision 2025 Extension.” Under this scenario, funding for debt service would come from a voter approved extension of 5.5/10 of a penny of the existing Tulsa County “Vision 2025” tax. Using existing taxable retail sales projections, this tax would generate revenues that would allow for a total bonding capacity of $13.9 M, leaving a total funding deficit of approximately $15 M to be made up by taxable revenue generated at the park of $6.31 M and another supplemental source of $8.58 M to be determined by the City of Glenpool. Fig. 7 Source #1 Existing Taxes $13,900,000 Base Revenue $6,317,000 TIF 0 Supplemental $8,585,000 Deficit $8,585,000 Scenario #2 Voter approved “Vision 2025 Extension” + TIF financing. Under this scenario, funding for debt service would come from the voter approved extension of the Tulsa County “Vision 2025” tax and sales and ad valorem taxes generated within a yet-to-be-formed TIF District that encompasses the subject property. The TIF District may be used to finance some of the types of public infrastructure that are contemplated by this project. Using existing taxable retail sales projections, this tax would generate revenues over 20 years that would allow 13 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma for a total bonding capacity of $ 13.9 M, leaving a funding deficit of approximately $15 M to be made up by taxable revenue generated at the park of $6.31 M with approximately $3M in costs financed through the TIF District and the deficit of $5.58 M coming from other resources to be determined by the City of Glenpool. Fig. 8 Source #2 Existing Taxes $13,900,000 Base Revenue $6,317,000 TIF $3,000,000 Supplemental $5,585,000 Deficit $5,585,000 Scenario #3 Current and Projected Revenues from Voter approved “Vision 2025 Extension”. Under this scenario, revenues from the voter approved extension of the Tulsa County Vision 2025 tax applied to existing retail sales and projected retail sales within the yet-to-be-formed TIF District would be used to service the debt issued to construct the park. Based upon the most current estimates, the pledge of those revenues would provide capital of $21.8 M, leaving a combined deficit of approximately $6.13M and $685,000 to be made up by taxable revenue generated at the park or some other source. Fig. 9 Source #3 Existing Taxes + Future Taxes +TIF Base Revenue $21,800,000 $6,317,000 Supplemental $685,000 Deficit $685,000 *The use of ad valorem collections would depend on the adoption of a TIF District following the guidelines allowed under State of Oklahoma law. Any additional increase in development surrounding the proposed BLD park would not benefit the baseline economic assumptions unless those properties are included in the TIF District boundary. Conclusions Based on the information presented here, the 6 Field Big League Dreams in its current configuration is difficult at best, and possibly not feasible on the 40 acre parcel identified by the City of Glenpool. If another more suitable site can be located, the cost of constructing the park could be reduced by as much as $2.3 million. Scenario #1 is not recommended for the following reasons; A The single deficiency highlighted in this financial analysis is the lower comparable participation rates among potential users within the Tulsa MSA. Lower than average attendance will result in lower operating income based on other BLD parks. B Current debt load of the city in the face of other long-term obligations. Scenario #2 is likely, but requires additional time and resources. It is worth exploring for the following reasons; A This scenario assumes the Vision 2025 Extension will pass the voters as well as the creation of the TIF district by stakeholders and the City of Glenpool. 14 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma B TIF Financing is stable and reliable, but depends on the development of property within the TIF boundary to realize the benefit of the district adoption. It is likely that bond payments on the construction of the ballpark would exceed the life of the TIF district. Scenario #3 is challenging given the inclusion of sales tax from potential new development as a contributor to the debt obligations, and still relies on multiple revenue sources. This scenario poses the highest risk, but comes closest to identifying sources to fund debt obligations. A Draws from all potential funding sources and includes future sales tax collections for new businesses that would potentially locate near the park, but do not currently exist B Given the potential for development adjacent to the proposed BLD site, sales tax collection from the TIF district would likely exceed ad valorem collections by 2x-3.5x depending on the concentration of retail development. The pursuit of this scenario will require an active campaign to locate sales tax generating businesses within the project boundary. Items for further consideration. The City of Glenpool must come to terms with the long-term debt obligations, the possible risks of decreased revenue over time and weigh those against the possible benefits. A complete marketing plan with a budget for advertising and promotions, public outreach and marketing strategy would benefit the City and generate interest ahead of the opening of the facility. A highly visible public outreach campaign targeting each of the user groups would be necessary to generate support for the park within the Tulsa MSA. Some details of the BLD proposals have changed as their financial model has changed. It is important to clarify a few of following details during contract negotiations. 1 Will there be “free use” access provided to local youth leagues during daytime hours? 2 Will there be a detailed public outreach campaign by BLD to develop trade area demand? 3 Establish operations and maintenance protocols for inspection on regular basis. It is unlikely that another vendor similar to BLD will come to market to provide a competitive analysis of fees, operating cost and community outreach. Therefore our analysis uses the information gathered from existing BLD parks and the municipalities in which they operate, measured against the existing and future growth trends of the Tulsa MSA. 15 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Feedback and Comments This study is wholly initiated by the City of Glenpool and the details of which are intentionally selfreferential. Any extrapolation of these findings should bear in mind the research and data that is unique to Glenpool, OK and the Tulsa OK MSA at this particular date in time. Notification of any potential errors, omissions or clarification of details are welcome. Please forward all correspondence to the City of Glenpool. A public comment sheet is included in this study to provide residents an opportunity to contribute to future revisions or amendments to this plan. Disclaimer: This Plan is provided to the city leaders and residents of Glenpool, OK for the benefit of determining the economic viability of building and developing a private sports complex. Any assumptions included in this report are open to public scrutiny and oversight. Questions, comments, and suggestions are welcomed and encouraged. Any errors contained herein are the fault of the authors and not that of the City of Glenpool, its residents, or other contributors that provided valuable input. Every effort has been made to verify the authenticity of the baseline data, and working closely with city leaders every possible scenario has been explored that appears on its face to be fair, reasonable and likely given the current economic, social and environmental conditions. This analysis attempts to capture the broadest possible spectrum of influences that impact the design, construction and financing strategies of the proposed recreation facility, but is, a time-sensitive document influenced by the changing dynamics of the everyday economic activity of Glenpool. Where reproduction of graphics or images is desired, please contact the City of Glenpool to request high-quality images. 16 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma References Brewer, Brad; Big League Dreams General Manager. Mansfield TX. Personal Interview. 6/4/2015 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Spotlight on Statistics, Sport and Exercise,” 5/2008 Clay County Development Authority “Economic Impact Study of a Proposed Recreational Sports Park.” Prepared by Infinity Global Solutions, LLC & Hart Resources LLC. 6/12013. Frazior, Doug. Economic Development Coordinator. League City, TX. Economic Impact Statement, Big League Dreams Sports Park. Revised 11/3/2003. Giambi, John; Executive Board Member and Manager, Big League Dreams. Chino Hills CA Telephone Interview 5/20/2015. Kelly, Bruce and Carchia, Carl. “Hey, data data – swing!” ESPN.com. Updated 7/13/2013. Kolman, Roger. Impact Study Financial Analysis – Appendix C Oklahoma State University, The Center for Hospitality & Tourism Research. School of Hotel & Restaurant Administration, “A Study of Oklahoma In-State and Out-of-State Visitors, 2010. 9/2010. Oklahoma State University Extension, “Economic Impact of a Regional Sports Complex in Shawnee, Oklahoma. Shideler, Dave and Benton, Joe. 12/2011 AE-11047 Physical Activity Council, “2015 Participation Report.” 4/22/2015. http://physicalactivitycouncil.com/PressRelease/ Redding, City of, CA. “Economic Impact Report.” 12/9/2005. U.S. Travel Association. The Economic Impact of Travelers on Oklahoma Counties 2009-2010. Prepared for the Oklahoma Tourism and Recreation Department by the US Travel Association, Washington D.C. Vavrinak, Mandy. 2nd Town Hall Information Session, “Glenpool’s Regional Multi-Sports Complex 9/10/13. 17 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Comment Form The City of Glenpool is accepting public comments on this study. Please provide written comments to the City of Glenpool. ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ Attached additional sheets if necessary. Name: (optional) 18 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix A Page 1 19 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix A Page 2 20 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix A Page 3 21 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix B Special letter on the site conditions and grading of the proposed 40 acre site. 22 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix C Financial Summary 23 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma Appendix D Economic Development Action Plan An economic development action plan is a valuable tool for identifying a specific vision a community should pursue through public and private investments. The action plan will allow city leaders the opportunity to forward a vision of Glenpool to its residents and business owners so that economic development decisions can follow a clearly identified course of action. The Basis of this Action Plan is the Glenpool Vision report dated April 4, 2014 by Crossroads Communications LLC. The purpose of this Plan is to support the findings of the Economic Impact – Feasibility Study and the close correlation between the financial projections used to support the economic growth model and the necessity that the City of Glenpool its’ business leaders and residents work together towards these shared goals. Goals Social – quality of life 1 Continue building on the healthy working relationship with schools, city, businesses and community groups through increased communication and outreach. 2 Maintain the existing character of Glenpool, its landscape, and its quiet atmosphere. 3 Improve on existing deficiencies both economic and social to prepare for new growth. 4 Provide easy access to parks, trails, and activities that support a healthy lifestyle. Economic - functional 5 Attract new businesses to reduce retail sales lost to other communities. 6 Grow housing options with more upscale neighborhoods and market rate apartments. 7 Increase capacity for new jobs in manufacturing and service sector. 8 Continue to provide easy access to goods and services throughout Glenpool. Actions 1a 1b 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a Schedule regular but informal meetings with community leaders to address pending agenda items or areas of concern prior to formal business meetings. Create method of documenting feedback to track progress of accomplished tasks among volunteer and community groups. Work closely with community development staff to draft subdivision and zoning policies to protect the rural character and guide development instead of reacting to it. Continue to promote dense urban growth where infrastructure currently exists to provide for the growth scenario without jeopardizing the property of rural acreages. Provide incentives for expanding businesses with sales tax rebates and targeted economic development tools. Establish a “Buy Glenpool” initiative to encourage residents to spend money “at home.” Develop Trails master plan to in conjunction with new development to provide access across US 75 to parks and recreation opportunities. 24 SEIBOLD Architecture & Planning Glenpool, Oklahoma 4b 5a 5b 5c 5d 6a 6b 7a 8a 8b Encourage the development of a contiguous sidewalk system in the existing urban areas to support pedestrian activity. Work with property owners to prepare properties for development or sale. Identify properties with high traffic and work with owners to increase retail or housing capacity according to zoning and development guidelines Identify properties for new schools, businesses and housing according to the comprehensive plan, and prepare drawings and plans to gain early public approval Develop targeted housing options that align with the types of jobs created within Glenpool to facilitate both “live and work” activities that will subsequently use recreational facilities more frequently. Create design guidelines to support development that meets the expectations of Glenpool residents. Determine the market capacity and seek out developer groups to balance the multifamily rental vs homeowner occupancies based on regional averages. Support utility and infrastructure growth along existing commercial and industrial zoning districts. Maintain a Level of Service (LOS) C or better for local roads, encouraging ride sharing, bicycling and walking to reduce congestion. Where possible, determine where new roads can bisect section lines to provide alternative routes between major intersections. Seibold Architecture and Planning is a multidisciplinary office working on a wide variety of projects across the State of Oklahoma and the surrounding region. For more information please visit www.seiboldarchitecture.com. 25
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