urbanMetrics inc.

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urbanMetrics inc.

urbanMetrics inc.
market, economic and strategic advisors
Market Demand and Impact Analysis,
Modeland Road/Michigan Avenue,
City of Sarnia, Ontario
`
Prepared for: Sifton Properties Limited
Date: August 20, 2008
urbanMetrics inc.
144 Front Street West, Suite 460
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2L7
P: 416-351-8585 / 1-800-505-8755
F: 416-345-8586
www.urbanmetrics.ca
urbanMetrics inc.
144 Front Street West, Suite 460
Toronto, ON, M5J 2L7
P: 416-351-8585 / 1-800-505-8755
F: 416- 345-8586
www.urbanmetrics.ca
August 20, 2008
Mr. Phillip R. Masschelein
Vice-President, Land
Sifton Properties Limited
P.O. Box 5099
London, Ontario
N6A 4M8
Dear Mr. Masschelein:
Re: Market Demand and Impact Analysis, Modeland Road/Michigan Avenue, City of Sarnia
urbanMetrics inc. is pleased to submit our report which examines the market opportunity for
a 150,000-170,000 square foot retail development in the City of Sarnia anchored by a 60,000
square foot supermarket, located in the north-west quadrant of Modeland Road and
Michigan Avenue. We have also evaluated the potential impact that the proposed
commercial development could have on existing retail areas in the City of Sarnia.
Our analysis has included an in-home telephone consumer survey of Trade Area residents.
Based on our market review and impact analysis, we conclude that from a market
perspective, the proposal is feasible and desirable on the basis of its location, size and
function. In addition this project will have limited if any impact on the existing commercial
structure of Sarnia, and will provide an improved level of commercial service to residents
living in the northern portion of Sarnia, who currently have limited local retail and service
opportunities in close proximity to their homes.
The analyses and appendices in the attached report provide our detailed study findings and
conclusions.
urbanMetrics inc.
It has been a pleasure conducting this study on behalf of Sifton Properties Limited and we
look forward to discussing our results.
Yours truly,
urbanMetrics inc.
Douglas R. Annand, CMC
Partner
Sarnia Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Table of Contents
1.
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................1-1
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.
SITE AND ACCESS .........................................................................................................................2-1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
3.
SITE CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................................................... 2-1
SITE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT ......................................................................................................... 2-2
ACCESS CHARACTERISTICS.............................................................................................................. 2-4
SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 2-5
TRADE AREA ..................................................................................................................................3-1
3.1
3.2
4.
BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................... 1-1
APPROACH ................................................................................................................................... 1-2
ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................................ 1-5
TRADE AREA DEFINITION ................................................................................................................. 3-1
TRADE AREA EXTENT ....................................................................................................................... 3-2
RETAIL COMPETITION....................................................................................................................4-1
4.1
CITY OF SARNIA COMMERCIAL STRUCTURE ....................................................................................... 4-1
4.2
SARNIA – RETAIL SPACE .................................................................................................................. 4-3
4.2.1
Downtown (Node 1).......................................................................................................4-6
4.2.2
Lambton Mall/Area (Nodes 3 and 4) ...........................................................................4-7
4.3
SUPERMARKET/GROCERY STORES IN SARNIA ..................................................................................... 4-7
4.4
PROPOSED COMPETITION ............................................................................................................... 4-9
4.5
FUTURE COMMERCIAL GROWTH OPTIONS ...................................................................................... 4-10
5.
POPULATION AND INCOME .........................................................................................................5-1
5.1
5.2
6.
POPULATION .................................................................................................................................. 5-1
PER CAPITA INCOME ...................................................................................................................... 5-3
FOOD STORE ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................6-1
6.1
FSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ........................................................................................................... 6-1
6.1.1
Per Capita FSR Expenditures..........................................................................................6-1
6.1.2
Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents ......................................................6-1
6.1.3
Distribution of Expenditures............................................................................................6-2
6.2
SUPERMARKET/MAJOR FOOD STORE ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 6-3
6.2.1
Primary Zone Share .........................................................................................................6-4
6.2.2
Primary Zone Residual Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents ...............6-4
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6.2.3
Market Opportunity ........................................................................................................6-6
6.3
IMPACT ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 6-7
7.
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS...............................................................................7-1
7.1
NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ........................................................................................................ 7-1
7.1.1
Per Capita NFSR Expenditures.......................................................................................7-1
7.1.2
Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents ......................................................7-1
7.1.3
Distribution of Expenditures............................................................................................7-2
7.2
OTHER NFSR SPACE ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 7-3
7.2.1
Primary Zone Share .........................................................................................................7-4
7.2.2
Residual Expenditure Potential......................................................................................7-4
7.2.3
Market Opportunity for Other NFSR Space .................................................................7-4
7.3
IMPACT ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 7-5
8.
CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................8-1
Appendix A: Inventory
Appendix B: Telephone Consumer Survey
Appendix C: Background Data and Definition of Terms
urbanMetrics inc.
1.
Introduction
urbanMetrics inc. has been retained by Sifton Properties Limited (“Sifton”) to undertake a
market demand and impact analysis for a proposed retail centre in Sarnia. The 26.5-acre site is
located in the north-west quadrant of Modeland Road and Michigan Avenue, in north-east
Sarnia.
1.1
Background
The subject site is located within a growing
residential area in the City of Sarnia. Based on
the size of the site, the proposed development
could accommodate approximately 260,000 to
270,000 square feet of retail and service
commercial space. However, based on recent
growth trends and the availability of existing
designated commercial sites elsewhere in
Sarnia, our preliminary study conducted in
November
2007
recommended
the
development of a supermarket anchored
neighbourhood centre in the 150,000 to 170,000
square foot range. This is the size of centre now
being tested in this detailed impact analysis.
Figure 1-1: Site Location
The site is currently designated “Residential” in
the Sarnia Official Plan, Secondary Plan Development Area 1. The zoning of the site is IU1
(Interim Use 1 Zone). Therefore, if Sifton intends to develop the site for retail commercial uses,
an Official Plan Amendment and rezoning would be required by the City, accompanied by a
number of supporting studies, including an economic impact study. As indicated in Section
2.4.2.4 of the Sarnia Official Plan, this economic impact study would require information
regarding the market feasibility of the proposed commercial development and whether it will
affect the viability of any existing commercial areas in Sarnia. The Sarnia Official Plan defines
an “Economic Impact Study (Market Study)” as a “study designed to analyze the market
support for major new retail commercial floor-space (i.e. a new shopping centre or a shopping
centre expansion) and its potential impact on the viability of existing retail commercial floorspace.” The Lambton County Official Plan also requires that for proposals for development of
new or peripheral shopping areas, a study is required to demonstrate that the viability of
existing main streets and commercial areas will not be threatened. As indicated in the
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Lambton County Official Plan (in effect since January 3, 1998), existing main streets and
commercial areas should be given first priority for development or redevelopment for
commercial purposes.
The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential impact that the proposed retail
development could have on the existing retail facilities in the City of Sarnia.
1.2
Approach
Our retail market demand and impact analysis includes the following:
1. Site and Access Evaluation
An evaluation of the suitability of the site for the proposed retail commercial uses has been
undertaken based on a general review of the subject site in terms of its size, location,
surrounding land uses, planning context and accessibility characteristics.
2. Trade Area Delineation
The delineation of a Trade Area from which the subject site could expect to obtain the
majority of its sales support has been undertaken, based on our review of a number of factors,
including:
•
Recognition of the size of the development and potential anchor tenants;
•
Our assessment of the competitive environment;
•
Our review of the site’s characteristics, including access and visibility; and
•
Recognition of traffic patterns and physical barriers.
The Trade Area has been divided into a Primary Zone and a Secondary Zone to reflect
distinguishable shopper traits and competitive factors. The Trade Area defined forms the basis
for the detailed demographic, competition and expenditure analysis.
3. Competition Analysis
An assessment of the existing competition in Sarnia has been undertaken, which has included
an inventory of food stores (FSR), home improvement, and other non-food store retail (NFSR)
facilities, including vacant space.
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Any existing designated sites or major proposals for new competitive developments have also
been identified based on discussions with Sarnia planning staff and considered in our analysis.
We have updated our inventory from the preliminary analysis conducted in November 2007
and reconfirmed the status of any proposed and designated commercial developments in the
City of Sarnia.
We have also reviewed the City’s Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review, conducted in
March 2008, which provides an overview of the commercial land use system and policy
framework established by Sarnia’s Official Plan, and guides the long-term growth and
development of the City. In this study a number of sites have been considered for future retail
commercial development and we have provided our professional opinion as to the suitability of
these areas for this type of development.
4. Undertake a Telephone Consumer Survey of Trade Area Consumers
A total of some 600 telephone surveys have been conducted in the Primary and Secondary
Zones. Information obtained relates to expenditures in food stores (FSR) and non-food retail
stores (NFSR). Age and household size were also included in the survey to identify consumer
characteristics (see Appendix B for details).
The in-home telephone survey results provide a detailed understanding of residents’
expenditure habits, and other information that assists us in our assessment of the current sales
performance levels of existing stores in the Trade Area and their ability to withstand any transfer
of sales created by the proposed retail/service uses.
5. Determine Market Dimensions of the Trade Area
To determine the future market growth available to support new retail facilities in Sarnia, the
population, per capita income and expenditure data for selected store types (i.e. food store
retail (“FSR”) and other non-food store retail (“NFSR”) stores) within the defined Trade Area has
been calculated for specific years to 2021.
The year 2007 has been utilized as the base year in the analysis, with 2010 assumed as the first
full year of operation for the development on the subject site.
Trade Area residents’ current and future expenditures for FSR and NFSR stores have been
calculated based on published Statistics Canada Retail Trade data; per capita income data
for the Trade Area (2005 data); real growth assumptions; and an expenditure regression formula
developed by urbanMetrics from Statistics Canada Household Expenditure Survey data.
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6. Re-Calculate Future Market Opportunity
To determine the market support for the proposed supermarket and other NFSR stores, and to
provide an overall quantitative estimate of the potential sales impacts on existing commercial
areas in Sarnia, a residual market analysis has been undertaken. A residual analysis is a
conservative approach to planning for additional space requirements, as it recognizes existing
stores in Sarnia at existing sales volumes. This methodology involves the following steps:
•
The existing Primary Zone share of Trade Area residents’ supermarket and other NFSR
store type expenditures has been estimated based on the results of the telephone
consumer survey.
•
Future Primary Zone shares have been forecast over the study period, based on an
estimate of the opportunity for any recapture of expenditures currently spent elsewhere.
•
The residual potential available or the net additional expenditure growth in the future
has been calculated.
•
The warranted additional supermarket and other NFSR space in Sarnia has then been
calculated based on the expected sales performance levels applied to the total sales
volume available, including inflow.
•
For proposed space, estimates of sales performance and inflow have been determined.
•
Based on the expected sales performance of the proposed space, sales transfers from
existing stores in Sarnia have been estimated for the specific retail categories analyzed
to evaluate the ability of the market to absorb new space.
7. Evaluating Sales Impact of the Subject Proposal
Based on our analysis, the potential sales impacts on existing major retail nodes in the Primary
Zone have been evaluated by major store type, in the form of a detailed directional impact
analysis. The issue of market impact has been addressed in terms of the effect of the proposed
development on the planned function of the existing and designated retail structure in the City
of Sarnia. In the impact analysis we have assumed that the centre will be 160,000 square feet in
size anchored by a 60,000 square foot supermarket, plus 70,000 square feet of non food store
retail (NFSR) facilities and 30,000 square feet of services.
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1.3
Assumptions
There is a number of underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings
presented in this report depend. Based on our considerable and long term experience in the
retail planning process, we recognize and appreciate the problems associated with making
broad and generalized assumptions about future conditions. Undoubtedly, deviations from
historic and current trends will take place in the future. However, basic assumptions are
required regarding the possible extent of such deviations. These basic assumptions are:
•
During the forecast period discussed in this report, a reasonable degree of economic
stability will prevail in the Province of Ontario, and specifically in Sarnia and Lambton
County.
•
Estimates of future population change in the Trade Area have been based on historic
trends and available municipal forecasts, which are assumed reliable for the purpose of
this study.
•
The first full year of operation for the first phase of the retail facilities proposed on the
subject site would be 2010. However, we recognize that additional space may be
added on a phased basis in future years as the market particularly in north Sarnia
continues to grow.
If for any reason, major changes occur which would influence the basic assumptions stated
above, the recommendations contained in this report should be reviewed in light of these
changes and revised, if necessary.
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2.
Site and Access
The following section summarizes the site and access characteristics of the subject property,
which is located in the north-west quadrant of Michigan Avenue and Modeland Road. Our
review includes an examination of surrounding land uses, and the local/regional transportation
network.
2.1
Site Characteristics
The 26.5 acre site is located on the west side of Modeland Road, north of Michigan Avenue, on
the north-east edge of Sarnia’s urban area in Secondary Plan Development Area 1, as defined
in the Official Plan (Figures 2-1 and 2-2).
Figure 2-1: Subject Site Location, Secondary Plan Development Area 1
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As indicated in Figure 2-1, the subject site is designated for residential uses. Therefore, an
Official Plan Amendment and re-zoning would be required to permit a retail development as
proposed. It should be noted that the existing designated commercial sites within Secondary
Plan Development Area 1 as indicated on Figure 2-1 are generally small in size and, would most
likely accommodate a gas station and other small local uses. None of these sites are large
enough to develop as a supermarket anchored shopping centre, and the uses likely to locate
on these sites would be very different from those in the subject proposal. Therefore, the
proposed centre will have no impact on the viability of these smaller designated sites.
Figure 2-2: Site Location
USA
Downtown
Commercial
Centre
Google Maps
2.2
Site Development Concept
Although the site could actually accommodate 260,000 to 270,000 square feet of retail/service
space, in our earlier preliminary study we recommended a commercial development with a
total size of 150,000 to 170,000 square feet, anchored by a 60,000 square foot supermarket. This
is the scale of development that has been tested in the detailed impact analysis that follows.
Sifton’s current plans for the site include a retirement home, multi-family residential units, a park,
and the retail commercial uses. The commercial component on the site would likely be
comprised of approximately 160,000 square feet, anchored by a 60,000 square foot
supermarket, 70,000 square feet of non-department non-food store retail (NFSR) space, and
30,000 of service commercial space.
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2.3 Surrounding Land Uses
There are a variety of land uses surrounding the subject site.
•
To the west – The area west of the subject site is predominantly residential. Immediately
west of the site new single-detached homes are currently being developed.
•
To the north – North of the subject site land uses include undeveloped lands and
scattered low density residential homes.
•
To the east – Directly east of the subject site is the Foundation of Faith Fellowship Church
and a number of single-family detached dwellings. Further to the east land uses include
predominantly rural/agricultural lands.
•
To the south – Directly south of the subject site along Michigan Avenue are vacant lands
currently designated for residential use. Further south is Highway 402 and the regional
retail node or designated “Commercial Centre”, concentrated around Lambton Mall. A
new Wal-Mart SuperCentre has recently opened in the south-west quadrant of Modeland
Road (Highway 40), and Highway 402, though additional space approved as part of that
development has not as yet been built.
Located at the intersection of two major County roads in the vicinity of a growing community,
the uses proposed on the subject site are considered complementary to the surrounding land
uses and will serve the local shopping needs of residents who are and will be living in the area in
future years.
Figure 2-5: Surrounding Land Uses
Site – Surrounding Existing Land Uses
Site
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2.3
Access Characteristics
Access is an integral part of the evaluation of the market demand that can be served at a
specific location. The subject site enjoys good visibility and accessibility from the surrounding
road network.
Regionally, the subject site benefits from its location in the City of Sarnia, a border community
that also serves an extensive market area, including a number of urban settlement areas in
Lambton County (e.g. Petrolia, Forest, Corunna), and a seasonal resident population along the
waterfront. As the major commercial centre serving Lambton County, the site is strategically
positioned to serve a large regional area with its location on Modeland Road in close proximity
to the Modeland/Highway 402 interchange. Its position as a border city
also makes Sarnia an attractive shopping destination for American’s
living in the Port Huron area, however, with the Canadian dollar now at
par with the American dollar, this influx of shoppers from the US is not
likely as significant as in previous years, with Canadians now more likely
to cross the border for shopping in the United States.
Highway 402 connects to both Interstates 69 and 94 in Michigan by way of the Blue Water
Bridge. The Blue Water Bridge is a twin-span bridge that spans the St. Clair River between Port
Huron, Michigan and Point Edward, Ontario. It is the fourth busiest Ontario border crossing and
the second busiest commercial traffic border crossing in Ontario. In 2005, 3.7 million cars and
1.8 million trucks crossed the bridge. Highway 402 carries between 15,000 and 25,000 vehicles
per day. The rebuilding of Highway 402 from Lambton Road 26 to Highway 21 is also currently
underway.
Modeland Road (Highway 40/County Road 27) is a major four-lane north-south thoroughfare in
the City of Sarnia. It connects with Highway 402, less than two kilometres to the south of the site,
as well as Highway 7 further north, which links Sarnia to other Lake Huron communities.
Bordering the site to the south, Michigan Avenue is a major east-west County road, which
connects the developing new residential community in north-east Sarnia to the established
neighbourhoods in the western part of the City. Michigan Avenue, a four-lane road, provides
local east-west access for local residents and connects to other major north-south routes.
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Figure 2-6: Regional Context
S AR N IA- R E G IO N AL C O N TE X T
SITE
Sou rc e : Sa rnia La m bto n Ec o no m ic Pa rtn ership
2.4
Summary
From a market location perspective, the subject property is considered suitable for both local
serving convenience and some higher-order retail uses for the following reasons:
•
Good visibility and Accessibility – The site has good visibility and direct accessibility from
both Modeland Road and Michigan Avenue.
•
Strategic Regional Location – The site has a good location within its regional context.
The site is strategically located in close proximity to Highway 402, a major transportation
corridor carrying over 15,000 vehicles per day, and connecting to one of Ontario’s
busiest border crossings.
•
Compatible with and Complementary to Surrounding Land Uses – The site is located in a
growing residential area in Sarnia and is considered compatible with the proposed and
existing land uses in the area.
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•
This site is also well located to service the local shopping needs of existing and future
residents living in the northern portion of Sarnia, who are currently underserved with
convenient retail and service facilities that will meet their day to day needs.
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3.
Trade Area
The total market influence attributed to a retail commercial development typically extends
over a wide area beyond any precise boundary that can be drawn. In many cases, the
existing chain representation in a market, the shopping environment, and the range of goods
and services offered will affect the extent of this market influence. For the purposes of making
reliable estimates of available market support for the proposed development, a specific Trade
Area has been defined.
3.1
Trade Area Definition
The Trade Area, as delineated for the subject site, represents the geographic area from which a
supermarket and other ancillary retail and service uses on the site would normally expect to
derive the majority of their sales volume. In this study, the delineation of the Trade Area
recognizes a number of factors, including:
•
our assessment of the competitive environment;
•
the potential size of the development and anchor tenants;
•
distance and travel times;
•
commuting patterns;
•
the accessibility and visibility of the site provided by the local and regional road
network; and
•
natural or man made barriers, which may inhibit or restrict the ease of movement of
customers, such as major highways, railway lines, lakes and rivers.
The remaining market support (“inflow” potential) for the subject site would normally reflect
occasional customer expenditures of tourists, non-resident Trade Area employees, visitors,
seasonal residents, and the travelling public, including those originating from the USA.
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3.2
Trade Area Extent
As indicated in Figure 3-1, the Trade Area has been delineated to include Lambton County. This
area has been defined as the geographic area from which the subject site could obtain
approximately 85% to 90% of annual retail sales or trade. The largest component of sales
support would be from the Sarnia community itself, with the greatest portion derived from
existing and future residents living in the surrounding Secondary Plan Development Area 1, and
those living in the northern portion of the City given these residents’ close proximity and the
large, more concentrated population base.
Figure 3-1: Trade Area
Trade Area
Primary
Zone
Secondary
Zone
LAMBTON COUNTY
The majority of the work force in Sarnia also originates from the defined Trade Area. As
indicated in Figure 3-2, about 75% of employees working in Sarnia reside in Sarnia.
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For the purposes of our analysis, the Trade Figure 3-2: Place of Residence of Sarnia Employees
Area has been further divided into a Primary
Place of Residence of Sarnia Employees
Zone and Secondary Zone:
Primary Zone (Sarnia/Point Edward) – This area
has been defined to include the City of Sarnia
and the Village of Point Edward. It represents
the portion of the Trade Area located in
closest proximity to the subject site and is the
area in which the site would likely derive the
greatest proportion of its sales. It is also the
area in which the impact of the subject
proposal will be assessed.
2%
5%
75%
9%
2%
2%
SOURCE: Based on Statistics Canada, Table: 97F0015XCB2001003
Employed Labour Force 15 Years and Over Having a Usual Place of Work – Commuter,
Flows Greater Than or Equal to 20, 2001 Census - 20% Sample Data
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It is also important to note that the proposed
centre will obtain a significant component of its sales new residents who will live in Secondary
Plan Development Area 1, as well as other areas in north Sarnia that are currently underserved
with local serving retail/service facilities.
Secondary Zone – This zone surrounds the Primary Zone. For the purposes of this study, the
Secondary Zone has been defined as the remainder of Lambton County (excluding Sarnia and
Point Edward). This area is predominantly rural in nature and includes a number of urban
settlement areas (e.g. Petrolia, Corunna, Wyoming, Forest) which have only limited higher order
retail facilities. Retail space in these communities is primarily local serving and/or tourist based.
Tourism is an important industry in parts of the Secondary Zone, and especially along the Lake
Huron shoreline and the St. Clair River. The community of Grand Bend, and Pinery Provincial
Park are popular tourist destinations, attracting thousands of people each week throughout the
summer to their beaches. In the Secondary Zone, there is likely a seasonal resident population
of close to 7,000 persons, with most located along the Lake Huron shoreline.
There are a
number of supermarkets in the Secondary Zone, including a Foodland and No Frills in Corunna,
an Independent Grocer in Petrolia, a Sobeys and No Frills in Grand Bend, and an IGA in Forest.
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4.
Retail Competition
An analysis of competitive retail facilities is essential to understanding the roles and functions
that existing Sarnia stores currently fulfill for residents and visitors, as well as the potential
competitive influences which could affect the market potential available to retail/service
facilities on the subject site.
The supply-side of our market analysis has been derived by undertaking an inventory of retail
space in the City of Sarnia, including food store retail (FSR), which includes supermarkets,
grocery stores, and convenience and specialty food stores, plus non-food store retail (NFSR)
type facilities, as well as vacant space. NFSR stores include:
•
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores, including drug stores, optical stores, nutrition
and cosmetic stores;
•
Clothing and Accessories Stores, including jewellery and luggage/leather goods stores;
•
Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores, including computer, camera and
photographic supply stores;
•
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores, including home improvement centres,
hardware stores, paint and wallpaper stores, nursery/garden centres, and a wide
range of building material stores;
•
General Merchandise Stores, including department stores, warehouse membership
clubs, Canadian Tire stores, variety stores, and dollar stores; and
•
Miscellaneous Retailers, including sporting goods, toy, hobby, book, florist, office
supply, fabric/wool, gift stores, pet/pet supply, tobacco.
Proposals for major new retail developments in Sarnia have also been described based on
discussions with the City of Sarnia. In addition a number of potential commercial areas,
considered in the City’s Commercial Land Needs and Policy Review have been evaluated.
4.1
City of Sarnia Commercial Structure
The Sarnia Official Plan provides for six major commercial designations, the locations of which
have been indicated in Figure 4-1: Downtown, Commercial Centre, General Commercial,
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Highway Commercial, Community Commercial and Office Commercial. Those designations
which include a large portion of the retail space in Sarnia (i.e. FSR and NFSR) include:
•
The Downtown designation includes the area
bordered by Front Street North, Vidal Street North,
Wellington Street and Charlotte Stash.
The
Downtown is intended to “contain major
concentrations of commerce, finance, tourist,
entertainment, recreation, residential and business
activities, and provide a dynamic commercial core
not only for the City, but also for Lambton County and the surrounding areas.” The
Downtown includes the Bayside Centre, anchored by Liquidation World and
government offices.
•
The Commercial Centre includes lands located in the regional
retail node in east Sarnia, generally south of Highway 402 and
west of Highway 40, along Exmouth Street and London Road.
This area is intended as the retail commercial regional centre
serving the City of Sarnia and the County of Lambton.
It
includes: Lambton Mall, anchored by Sears and Canadian
Tire; Zellers; Home Depot; and the new SmartCentres Wal-Mart
development.
•
The General Commercial designation encompasses a variety of retail formats intended
to serve the day-to-day needs of local residents in the City and includes such uses as
service shops, automobile service stations, automobile sales, repair garages, parking
lots, general offices, restaurants, clubs or halls, places of amusement or recreation,
churches or day nurseries. The General Commercial designation includes lands located
in south-west Sarnia, primarily along Exmouth Street, Christina Street, Ontario Street and
Indian Road.
•
The Highway Commercial designation includes businesses “intended to serve the
highway-oriented needs of the travelling public by providing access to food, fuel and
accommodation.” Uses permitted in this designation include: nursery or garden centres,
industrial and agricultural equipment sales and service, farmer's markets, flea markets,
retail warehouses, retail uses, and contractor supply stores. This designation applies to
lands generally located between Highway 40 (Modeland) and Airport Road, south of
Highway 402.
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•
The Community Commercial designation permits the establishment of “commercial uses
which primarily cater to the needs of the surrounding areas.” The Official Plan permits
food stores, convenience commercial uses, gas bars, car washes, animal hospitals,
specialty retail uses, and personal service shops within this designation. Community
Commercial sites are scattered throughout the City, and this in our opinion is the most
appropriate designation for the subject development.
Figure 4-1: City of Sarnia Official Plan – Proposed Land Use
OFFICIAL PLAN –
Site
CITY OF SARNIA
Highway Commercial
Downtown
Commercial
Centre
Source: City of Sarnia Official Plan, Excerpt – Schedule A
Figure 4-2 summarizes the retail/service space inventoried in the City of Sarnia by major node
and store type category. The accompanying map, Figure 4-3, illustrates the location of the
various nodes identified. Appendix A provides a detailed listing of the inventory by commercial
node and store type.
4.2
Sarnia – Retail Space
As detailed in Figure 4-2, in total, close to 2 million square feet of non-food store retail (NFSR)
space has been inventoried in Sarnia. This space is geographically dispersed, with the majority
of NFSR space located south of Highway 402 in Lambton Mall and surrounding area, as well as
in the Downtown. Including the Bayside Centre, the Downtown Area (Node 1) has some
271,100 square feet of NFSR space. This can be compared to Lambton Mall/Area (Nodes 3 and
4), which includes close to 1.2 million square feet of NFSR space. Food store retail (FSR) space
in the entire community comprises just under 500,000 square feet.
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Figure 4-2: City Of Sarnia- Summary of Retail Competition
Sum of Size
#
Node
1
Category2
FSR
FSR Sum
NFSR
Downtown
Category
FSR: Convenience and Specialty
FSR: Supermarket/Grocery
NFSR: Apparel/Accessories
NFSR: Building and Outdoor Home Supply
NFSR: Department Stores
NFSR: General Merchandise
NFSR: Home Furnishings
NFSR: Other/Miscellaneous
NFSR: Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores
NFSR Sum
Other Retail: LBW Other Retail: LBW
Other Retail: LBW Sum
VACANT
VACANT
VACANT Sum
Grand Total
2
3
Confederation
Lambton
Mall/Area
12,900
4,000
16,900
39,200
15,400
49,300
52,400
104,500
10,300
271,100
2,000
2,000
109,700
109,700
399,700
7,000
8,300
15,300
2,900
58,300
1,700
24,600
7,200
1,000
95,700
800
800
26,300
26,300
138,100
16,000
271,800
287,800
57,200
111,800
254,800
10,000
139,900
146,200
7,100
727,000
10,000
10,000
83,900
83,900
1,108,700
4
5
Lambton Mall
Exmouth
Street
2,100
2,100
105,600
135,000
106,300
46,600
46,600
4,700
444,800
2,900
2,900
149,200
149,200
599,000
6
9,500
45,000
54,500
7,100
5,500
London Line
2,700
2,700
54,800
14,600
5,300
18,900
22,200
73,600
146,700
8,300
8,300
136,400
4,500
4,500
153,900
74,100
17,800
Sum of Size
Category2
FSR
FSR Sum
NFSR
Category
FSR: Convenience and Specialty
FSR: Supermarket/Grocery
7
8
9
Mitton
Village/Area
Other (South
of 402)
Lakeshore
Road
17,100
17,100
NFSR: Apparel/Accessories
NFSR: Building and Outdoor Home Supply
NFSR: General Merchandise
NFSR: Other/Miscellaneous
NFSR: Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores
NFSR Sum
Other Retail: LBW Other Retail: LBW
Other Retail: LBW Sum
VACANT
VACANT
VACANT Sum
Grand Total
9,300
11,200
40,500
51,700
4,500
9,600
8,200
17,000
17,500
11,000
63,000
14,000
15,100
54,300
54,400
54,400
134,500
65,900
65,900
171,900
9,500
10,300
19,800
500
8,600
10
11
Point Edward
Other (North
of 402)
2,000
2,000
2,000
3,000
8,100
15,000
23,100
11,100
1,400
1,500
3,500
15,500
3,400
3,400
4,600
4,600
43,300
15,300
2,500
22,800
8,000
8,000
11,000
11,000
43,800
1,800
1,200
8,400
11,400
3,000
3,000
11,000
11,000
48,500
Grand Total
98,100
394,900
493,000
219,000
276,300
389,800
201,200
378,400
377,900
83,300
1,925,900
30,100
30,100
528,800
528,800
2,977,800
Source: urbanMetrics inc., May 2008
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Retail/Vacant Space in Sarnia, May 2008
VACANT
FSR: Conv enience and
FSR:
Specialty
Supermarket/Grocery
98,100
394,900
3%
13%
528,800
18%
Other Retail: LBW
30,100
NFSR:
1%
Apparel/Accessories
219,000
7%
NFSR: Pharmacies &
Personal Care Stores
83,300
NFSR: Building and
3%
Outdoor Home Supply
276,300
9%
NFSR:
Other/Miscellaneous
377,900
13%
378,400
NFSR: General
389,800
Merchandise
13%
201,200
13%
7%
Figure 4-3: Retail Nodes
Retail Nodes in Sarnia
9
11
10
3
5
6
4
1
7
8
2
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The City of Sarnia includes a variety of regional and local serving retail facilities. The majority of
this space is located in the “Downtown” (Node 1) and “Commercial Centre” (Nodes 3 and 4).
4.2.1 Downtown (Node 1)
Christina Street North is the major commercial strip in the Downtown node. Located on
Christina is Bayside Centre, anchored by a Liquidation World. In total, the Downtown has some
399,700 square feet of retail space, of which an estimated 109,700 square feet is vacant. The
Downtown exhibits some signs of blight, and particularly along Christina Street, which has been
plagued with long term vacancy issues and building deterioration, although vacancy levels are
on the decline in the Downtown, with the redevelopment of the Bayside Centre.
Contributing factors to vacancy in the Downtown include the closure of Eaton’s and A&P in the
Bayside Centre (former Eaton’s Centre) in 1997, the shift of the retail focus to the London Road
“Commercial Centre” node, which started in the 1970’s with the opening of Lambton Mall, and
the economic problems in the petrochemical industry.
In recent years, Bayside Mall has
repositioned itself as a mixed-use centre, with the addition of a call centre. The economy of
the area, which historically was focused on the petrochemical and refinery sector, has also
become more diversified with investments in the call centre industry, automotive, engineering,
fabrication and power generation sectors.
Sarnia’s Downtown has a mix of uses and a certain degree of economic and social vitality.
Considering that the Downtown includes a greater amount of service space than retail space,1
the retail vacancy level in the Downtown is estimated at about 10%, which is considered typical
of most Downtown areas in larger urban centres.
In total, NFSR space in the Downtown has been estimated at some 271,100 square feet, with
Liquidation World (45,000 square foot) the largest NFSR retailer anchoring Bayside Centre. Food
store space in the Downtown is limited with some 16,900 square feet, including the 4,000 square
foot Downtown Grocery on Victoria Street.
1 Based on a Malone Given Parsons inventory conducted in the Downtown in 2001, almost 75% of the total commercial
space in the Downtown was comprised of service commercial space, including entertainment, restaurant and office
space.
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4.2.2 Lambton Mall/Area (Nodes 3 and 4)
This node is the major retail node in the City. It includes Lambton Mall, the only regional
shopping centre in the City, which opened in 1978. This centre is an enclosed mall currently
anchored by Sears, Canadian Tire and Tepperman’s Furniture. A new Wal-Mart Super Centre,
with a large food component, has relocated across the street from Lambton Mall to the north,
and will anchor a new format retail centre that has received approvals for an additional
170,000 square feet. The former Wal-Mart space in Lambton Mall, which is leased by Wal-Mart
for another 14 years, remains vacant. Other
“Commercial Centre” Area
centres in this node include the London
Road Plaza, anchored by Zellers, and the
Zehrs Food Plus Centre, which has recently
been redeveloped and includes a Winners
SmartCentres Sarnia
(376,000 sq.ft.
sq.ft. – 165,000 to be developed
apparel store. Other supermarkets in the
node include an A&P and Price Chopper.
Lambton
Home improvement stores include Home
Mall
Depot and Home Hardware. In total, these
two nodes include some 1.7 million square
feet of retail space, with some 233,100
square feet of vacant space.
4.3
Supermarket/Grocery Stores in Sarnia
As summarized in Figure 4-4, a total of 394,900 square feet of supermarket/grocery store space
has been inventoried in Sarnia, which includes 11 nodes. The majority of this space is located
south of Highway 402. The largest store is the Zehrs located in the Zehrs Food Plus Centre at the
corner of Murphy Road and London Road in the “Commercial Centre”.
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Figure 4-3: City of Sarnia – Location of Supermarkets/Grocery Stores
Supermarkets/Grocery Stores
Figure 4-4: City Of Sarnia-Supermarket/Major Food Store Space
SUPERMARKETS/GROCERY STORES, SARNIA
Location
101 Victoria Street
1444 Quinn Drive
600 Murphy Road
1375 London Road
2600 Lakeshore Road
700 Kemsley Drive
191 Indian Road South
1330 Exmouth Street
560 Exmouth Street
889 Exmouth Street
1030 Confederation Street
TOTAL SUPERMARKET/GROCERY
Map
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
Sarnia
1
3
3
3
9
11
2
3
5
5
2
Node
Downtown
Lambton Mall/Area
Lambton Mall/Area
Lambton Mall/Area
Lakeshore Rd
Other (North of 402)
Confederation
Lambton Mall/Area
Exmouth Street
Exmouth Street
Confederation
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Name
Downtown Grocery
Wal-Mart (Groceries)
Zehrs
A&P
Foodland
Valu Mart
Food Basics
Price Chopper
A&P
No Frills
Davy Jones Everfresh
Sq.Ft.
4,000
64,200
113,600
44,000
10,300
15,000
40,500
50,000
25,000
20,000
8,300
394,900
4-8
4.4
Proposed Competition
Based on information from the City, there is one major application for retail development in
Sarnia:
•
SmartCentres – In addition to the Wal-Mart Super
Centre (214,000 Sq ft), the developer has obtained
approval for 170,000 square feet of additional
retail/service space.
Although none of this
additional space has been built the tenants are
expected to include a number of large format
retail uses: La Senza, Michaels, Bonnie Togs and The
Dollar Store. For the purpose of our analysis, we
have assumed that the SmartCentres Phase 2
development would include about 140,000 square
feet of NFSR space, with the remainder devoted to service space.
In addition to these proposals, it is our understanding that there are vacant designated
commercial sites at various locations in Sarnia that could accommodate additional retail
facilities, including several sites in the “Commercial Centre”, and potential re-development sites
located in the Downtown and the Mitton Village areas.
In the Commercial Centre, the City has indicated that excluding the SmartCentres site, there
are about 11 acres of other vacant land on various sites that could accommodate additional
retail/service development. In Secondary Plan – Development Area 1, there are a number of
small vacant designated commercial sites comprising a total of about 5.8 acres, but as noted
previously these sites are not large enough to accommodate a supermarket anchored centre
and these smaller sites can still develop with different types of tenants than those proposed on
the subject site In Secondary Plan Development Area 2 (area between Modeland Road and
Blackwell Sideroad, north of Confederation Line, and south of London Line), some 22.35 acres
have been designated, excluding existing commercial sites. Assuming coverage of 25%, all of
these designated sites could accommodate an additional 426,300 square feet of retail/service
space. In Secondary Plan Development Area 2, the largest designated site is about 16 acres,
located on Confederation Line, which could accommodate about 175,000 square feet of
retail/service space. In our opinion the subject site is better located compared to this site as it is
located in a currently developing residential community and in an area of north Sarnia that is
currently underserved with retail and service facilities. For the purpose of our analysis, we have
assumed that the vacant designated sites would accommodate about 150,000 square feet of
NFSR space, developed over the study period analyzed in our report.
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4.5
Future Commercial Growth Options
The City’s Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review, conducted in March 2008, discusses future
commercial land supply in Sarnia. According to this document, developers have indicated
that a readily available supply of vacant, designated, zoned, serviced and visible commercial
sites is lacking in Sarnia.
The Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review envisions future growth in the Downtown, General
Commercial and Office Commercial Areas that will occur primarily as infill or redevelopment.
For land uses in the Highway Commercial Area along London Line, it is anticipated that this
area will function as an extension of the Commercial Centre Area.
The Community
Commercial vacant land supply of 12.2 ha, which includes a neighbourhood/local commercial
land supply in Secondary Plan Development Areas 1 & 2, is considered adequate for the needs
of a 20- year planning horizon, though in our opinion some of these sites may not be large
enough or in the right location to develop as proposed. In fact, we doubt the Secondary Plan
Development Area 2 will develop within the time frame examined in this report, and Secondary
Plan Development Area 1, where the subject site is located, is the preferred location for retail
development as it is located central to a developing community in north Sarnia that is currently
underserved with local serving retail/service facilities.
Future regional scale commercial growth in Sarnia will be directed to the Commercial Centre
Area. Following the policy direction established by the Provincial Policy Statement, a portion of
the 20-year land need is first met by the existing vacant land supply. In order to satisfy the
remaining land need, three Site Areas (‘A’, ‘B’, and ‘C’) were identified in the study as growth
options. However, in our view the subject site which is already located within the urban
boundary is a preferred option of meeting the 20 year commercial land need.
In addition, in terms of the three sites identified in the Commercial Policy Review, Site Area A
(5.85 ha) is located south of London Line and east of Highway 40 (Modeland Road) and is
primarily vacant. The majority of its area is designated “Light Industrial” in the Official Plan. This
growth option examines the possibility of amending the current designation to an appropriate
commercial or mixed industrial/commercial land use to allow for potential future commercial
development. However, this area is somewhat isolated from surrounding residential uses due to
lack of access at London Line. The site would require an upgrade of the road system in order
for it to be developed for commercial or industrial use. This would not be the case for the
subject site.
Site Areas B and C are the two other growth options considered. Unlike Site Area A, these two
options which are currently farmland and no where near residential areas of the City, would
require expanding the City’s urban area boundary to accommodate the long-term growth. In
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our view, the subject site which is located within the current urban boundary in a developing
residential area is a much better option, that fulfils a current and future need in north Sarnia.
Generally located north of Highway 402 and east of Highway 40 (Modeland Road), Site Area B
(51.43 ha) is mainly vacant and a portion of the site is part of a municipal stormwater
management facility. There are several designations currently on the site, including “Rural”,
“Flood Plain Area”, and “Primary Natural Heritage Corridor”. Although Site Area B is contiguous
with the present urban boundary, highly visible, and accessible from two highways, which are
all attributes of a suitable commercial site, development constraints such as road access and
poor soil conditions limit Site Area B as a good commercial site.
Site Area C (143.42 ha) is generally located south of London Line, and west of Telfer Road.
Existing land uses on the site include cultivated farm lands, a recreational vehicle/trailer sales
establishment, and a gas station. The site is designated “Rural” in the Official Plan. This site is
accessible from London Line and from Highway 402, and is considerably larger than the land
area identified as needed to accommodate commercial growth for the next 20 years. It is also
recommended in the Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review that designation of a portion of
this site for commercial development is best considered through the Secondary Planning
process. Such a process would not be required on the subject site.
Therefore, we would conclude that the subject site is a much better location to meet the future
commercial needs of Sarnia, and in particularly the residents living in this portion of the City who
are currently underserved with retail/service facilities.
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5.
Population and Income
To determine the potential demand and market opportunity for additional retail uses in Sarnia, it
is necessary to estimate the future permanent resident population living within the Trade Area.
Population change, in addition to income, represents major factors that can significantly
influence the level of future retail sales in an area, and the retail space warranted in a market.
5.1
Population
Figure 5-1 summarizes the historic population levels in the Trade Area, based on Statistics
Canada, Census of Canada data. Forecast population levels for each Trade Area zone are
based on population projections provided in City of Sarnia’s Commercial Land Needs & Policy
Review, part of the Official Plan Review conducted in March, 2008. It should be noted that all
data accounts for net undercoverage2 in the Census.
The total Trade Area population, which Figure 5-1
includes Lambton County, has increased from TRADE AREA - POPULATION - Historic
CENSUS
131,835 persons in 2001, to 132,340 in 2006; a
2001
modest growth of 540 persons or about 101 PRIMARY ZONE
70,876
Sarnia CY
persons per year. About 90% of this growth has
2,101
Point Edward VL
72,977
Sub-TOTAL
been in the Secondary Zone, with the % of Total Trade Area
57.48%
Municipality of Lambton Shores experiencing SECONDARY ZONE IRI
695
Sarnia 45
758
Oil Springs VL
the greatest increase, followed by the Town of
IRI
822
Kettle Point 44
1,843
Walpole Island 46 IRI
Petrolia.
In the Primary Zone, Sarnia’s
TP
2,369
Dawn-Euphemia
2,785
Brooke-Alvinston MU
3,259
population increased by about 132 persons,
Enniskillen TP
TP
4,025
Warwick
4,849
Petrolia T
with the Village of Point Edward declining by
7,359
Plympton-Wyoming T
10,571
Lambton Shores MU
some 97 persons, resulting in a marginal
14,659
St. Clair TP
53,994
TOTAL
increase in the Primary Zone population of Sub% of Total Trade Area
42.52%
TOTAL LAMBTON
some 35 persons.
126,971
COUNTY/TRADE AREA
131,835
Undercoverage
CENSUS
2006
71,419
CENSUS - Adjusted
for Undercoverage
2001
2006
Average Annual
Growth
73,591
2,181
75,773
57.48%
73,723
2,084
75,807
57.28%
26
-19
7
7%
54,766
42.72%
722
787
853
1,914
2,460
2,892
3,384
4,179
5,035
7,641
10,976
15,221
56,062
42.52%
729
740
1,053
1,939
2,261
2,747
3,223
4,072
5,390
7,748
11,510
15,122
56,533
42.72%
1
-9
40
5
-40
-29
-32
-21
71
21
107
-20
94
128,204
131,835
132,340
101
2,019
73,438
57.28%
706
717
1,020
1,878
2,190
2,661
3,122
3,945
5,222
7,506
11,150
14,649
132,340
1.038308 1.032261
Although some 1,108 building permits were SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
issued for new residential units in Sarnia over
the 2001 to 2006 period, with some 190 in 2006, any population growth realized by new
residential developments has been offset to a large degree by the aging of the population and
the declining household size of the existing population base.
1) Undercoverage factors based on Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Estimates for Lambton County.
2
Net undercoverage: Difference between undercoverage and overcoverage. Overcoverage: Number of persons who
should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once. Undercoverage: Number of
persons not enumerated in a census (who were intended to have been enumerated).
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As noted previously, the City of Sarnia conducted a Commercial Land Needs and Policy
Review in March, 2008 as part of its Official Plan Review. This document includes population
projections for the City of Sarnia and Lambton County to the year 2028 and is the most recent
population forecast available from the City. Based on historical growth trends, population
projections have been calculated using the straight-line projection method, with three different
growth scenarios (low, medium, and high). We have used the population forecasts under the
medium growth scenario in our analysis, which represents an annual growth rate of 0.47% for
Sarnia, and 0.53% for Lambton County.
Accounting for Census undercoverage, the forecasts indicate that Sarnia’s population will grow
from 73,723 persons in 2006 to 79,095 persons by 2021, an increase of 5,372 persons in this 15
year period. Population in Lambton County (including Sarnia) is expected to reach 146,260
persons by 2021, a growth of 13,920 from 132,340 persons in 2006. Based on Lambton County’s
annual growth rate of 0.53%, we have calculated the population forecast for Point Edward,
which is part of our Primary Zone. In 2006, there were some 2,084 persons in Point Edward, and
this population is expected to reach 2,256, a moderate growth of 172 persons.
In the Secondary Zone, and based on discussions with County staff, recent historic growth
trends are expected to continue and could potentially be higher, although servicing capacity
could temper this growth over the long term. In the southern portion of the County, the most
important growth area includes St Clair Township. This municipality is adjacent to Sarnia and
benefits from the development associated with the petrochemical industry. In the north of the
County, most of the growth is anticipated in the municipality of Lambton Shores.
Figure 5-2 summarizes our estimates of Trade Area population based on the medium growth
scenario. As indicated, the Trade Area population is forecast to increase over the forecast
period from 132,340 persons in 2006 to 143,260 persons by 2021; a growth of 10,920 persons.
Overall, the Primary Zone is projected to grow from 75,807 persons in 2006 to 81,351 persons by
2021; a growth of 5,544 persons. The Secondary Zone is forecast to grow from 56,533 persons in
2006 to 61,909 persons by 2026; a growth of 5,376 persons.
Based on discussions with Sarnia planning staff, the number of residential units planned for the
Secondary Plan Area is 1,400 with a target population of approximately 4,060 persons. This
population will provide significant market support for the proposed retail development and
growth of this magnitude would support new retail/service space in excess of 180,000 square
feet (at a standard ratio of 45 square feet per capita), though a portion of this demand would
be served by other retail areas throughout Sarnia. However, existing residential areas in north
Sarnia, which are currently underserved, will provide further support for the retail and service
facilities proposed.
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Figure 5-2: Trade Area Population
TRADE AREA POPULATION (1
Base Year
2007
2009
2012
2015
75,807
76,165
358
0.5%
76,885
360
0.5%
77,978
364
0.5%
79,086
369
0.5%
81,351
378 0.5%
8,135
-10.0%
56,533
56,876
343
0.6%
57,570
347
0.6%
58,626
352
0.6%
59,702
359
0.6%
61,909
368 0.6%
6,191
-10.0%
132,340
133,041
701
0.5%
134,455
707
0.5%
136,604
716
0.5%
138,788
728
0.5%
143,260
745 0.5%
14,326
-10.0%
2006
Primary Zone
Population
Average Annual Increase
Average Annual Growth
Secondary Zone
Population
TOTAL TRADE AREA
2021
2031
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Undercoverage factor of 1.032 for Lambton County and assumed for Trade Area in 2006 and forecast years.
Population Figures for 2006 are based on Statistics Canada, Census of Canada. Figures for Primary and Secondary Zones for the
forecast period are based on population projections provided in Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review, March 2008 by City
of Sarnia for years until 2028.
5.2
Per Capita Income
Per capita income levels provide a reasonable basis for determining the retail expenditure
levels of the Trade Area population. Based on Statistics Canada, 2006 Census data, we have
calculated the per capita income index for each of the two zones, as detailed in the following
figure. The Primary Zone has income levels slightly above the average Provincial level (1.5%),
while the Secondary Zone has income levels just below the average Provincial level (-7.6%).
Figure 5-3: Trade Area Per Capita Income
Location
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone
Province
Per Capita Income Index to Province
$29,714
101.5
$27,025
92.4
$29,263
100.0
Source: urbanMetrics inc. based on Statistics Canada, 2006 Census
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6.
Food Store Analysis
In this section of the report we have evaluated the market opportunity for additional
supermarket space in the City of Sarnia, recognizing that the anchor for the subject site would
likely be a supermarket.
6.1
FSR Expenditure Potential
The following is an overview of per capita food store retail (FSR) expenditures, the distribution of
expenditures, and the expenditure potential available from Trade Area residents.
6.1.1 Per Capita FSR Expenditures
Based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, the 2007 average per capita food store
expenditure in Ontario is estimated at $1,990 (See Appendix C). Food store expenditures
include those made in supermarkets, grocery, convenience, and specialty food stores. For the
purposes of our analysis, we have also included expenditures made in the new Wal-Mart
SuperCentre in Sarnia, which includes a major food component.
As indicated in Figure 6-1, for Trade Area residents the 2007 average per capita food store
expenditure has been estimated based on the income relationship between the Province and
the Trade Area, and an expenditure based regression equation, which calculates an
expenditure index based on income level. Based on Trade Area residents’ income levels, the
2007 per capita FSR expenditures have been estimated at $1,994 for the Primary Zone (Sarnia
and Point Edward), and $1,972 for the Secondary Zone (remainder of Lambton County).
For Trade Area residents, the 2007 average per capita FSR expenditure is expected to increase
at a rate of 0.5% per year on an un-inflated basis between 2007 and 2015. As discussed in the
underlying assumptions, future changes in expenditure patterns solely due to inflation have not
been recognized. Therefore, future expenditure levels reflect the 2007 value of the Canadian
dollar.
6.1.2 Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents
By multiplying the average per capita food store expenditure by the current and projected
population residing in the Trade Area, the total food store potential from Trade Area residents
has been calculated over the study period.
In total, the food store potential available from Trade Area residents has been estimated at
$264.1 million in 2007. By 2015, this potential is expected to reach $286.4 million; a growth of
$22.3 million over the eight year period (expressed in 2007 dollars).
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Figure 6.1
PER CAPITA FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
2007
2007 Dollars
Province of Ontario
Per Capita FSR Expenditure
$ 1,990 (1
2007
2010
2012
2015
101.50
100.20
$ 1,994
76,165
$ 151.9
87.0%
13.0%
100.0%
$ 132.2
$ 19.7
$ 151.9
$ 2,024
77,247
$ 156.3
90.0%
10.0%
100.0%
$ 140.7
$ 15.6
$ 156.3
$ 2,044
77,978
$ 159.4
90.0%
10.0%
100.0%
$ 143.5
$ 15.9
$ 159.4
$ 2,074
79,086
$ 164.0
90.0%
10.0%
100.0%
$ 147.6
$ 16.4
$ 164.0
92.40
99.10
$ 1,972
56,876
$ 112.2
90.0%
10.0%
100.0%
$ 101.0
$ 11.2
$ 112.2
$ 2,002
57,921
$ 116.0
92.5%
7.5%
100%
$ 107.3
$ 8.7
$ 116.0
$ 2,021
58,626
$ 118.5
92.5%
7.5%
100%
$ 109.6
$ 8.9
$ 118.5
$ 2,051
59,702
$ 122.4
92.5%
7.5%
100%
$ 113.2
$ 9.2
$ 122.4
$ 272.3
$ 248.0
$ 14.8
$ 24.3
-$6.6
$ 277.9
$ 253.1
$ 19.9
$ 24.8
-$6.1
$ 286.4
$ 260.8
$ 27.6
$ 25.6
-$5.3
2007 Dollars
Primary Zone
Income Index to Province
FSR Expenditure Index to Province
Population
TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions)
FSR - Supermarket Share (2
FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (2
Total
FSR - Supermarkets (2
Total
Secondary Zone
FSR Expenditure Index to Province
Population
FSR - Supermarket Share (2
Total
FSR - Supermarkets (2
Total
TOTAL TRADE AREA
TOTAL FSR - Supermarkets ($Millions)
Cumulative Growth
TOTAL FSR - Grocery/Other Food ($Millions)
Cumulative Growth
$ 264.1
$ 233.2
$ 30.9
1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade.
2) urbanMetrics estimate based on in-home telephone survey results and our inventory of food stores in the Trade Area
6.1.3 Distribution of Expenditures
The total food store expenditure potential has
been
divided
into
two
categories:
supermarket/grocery and convenience/specialty
food stores. These current shares are estimated
based on our review of Statistics Canada data,
the results of our in-home telephone consumer
survey, and the inventory of food store space.
Ontario: Food Store Expenditure Distribution
(based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data)
100%
80%
60%
88.9%
89.0%
88.3%
87.1%
Supermarket and
Grocery
Conv enience &
Specialty Food
40%
20%
0%
11.1%
11.0%
11.7%
12.9%
2004
2005
2006
2007
According to Statistics Canada Retail Trade
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data, supermarkets/grocery stores comprise about 87.1% of all FSR expenditures in Ontario,
while convenience/specialty food stores account for the remaining 12.9%. For the Primary
Zone, we have utilized the Provincial supermarket/grocery share of 87% for the 2007 base year.
In future years, a slight increase in the supermarket/grocery share to 90% has been assumed for
Primary Zone residents to recognize potential sales transfers from convenience/specialty food
stores created by potential new supermarket space added in Sarnia. Our review of the inhome telephone survey indicates the following supermarket shares of total food store
expenditures:
•
Primary Zone - 92.6%
•
Secondary Zone - 95.4%
In our experience, however, consumer survey results typically understate specialty food store
expenditures, and therefore, we have adjusted the current supermarket shares downward to
reflect this fact, but do recognize a somewhat higher supermarket share in the Secondary Zone
as revealed by the consumer survey.
As indicated in Figure 6-1, the supermarket/grocery potential available from Trade Area
residents has been calculated at $233.2 million in 2007, increasing to $260.8 million by 2015; a
growth of $27.6 million during this eight year period (expressed in 2007 dollars).
It should be noted that the expenditures calculated represent only the total food store
expenditure potential of Trade Area residents. In addition, expenditures of persons who reside
outside the Trade Area (i.e. inflow) have also been included in the analysis. These persons
could be visitors, tourists, seasonal residents, the travelling public, and individuals whose
workplace is within the Trade Area but whom reside elsewhere. This inflow of retail sales is
considered in the following section of the analysis.
6.2
Supermarket/Major Food Store Analysis
This section examines the market opportunity for additional supermarket space in the City of
Sarnia, and the potential overall sales impacts on existing stores that could be created with the
addition of new supermarket space in the community and in particular from the supermarket
proposed on the subject site.
Our assessment of the market opportunity for additional supermarket space in Sarnia is derived
based on the following assumptions:
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1. Space Assumptions: The year 2010 is considered as the first full year of operation for a
60,000 square foot supermarket on the subject site. We have also tested the addition of
another potential supermarket in southeast Sarnia in Development Area 2 (although no
application has been submitted) of some 40,000 square feet, with a first full year of
operation in 2015.
2. Recapture: According to our telephone in-home consumer survey, Primary Zone
residents currently spend almost all their food store dollars in Sarnia, and therefore there
is little opportunity for recapture opportunities. Although Sarnia is likely a popular food
shopping choice for Secondary Zone residents, supermarkets located elsewhere in the
Trade Area (i.e. Corunna Foodland and Independent in Petrolia) and beyond, influence
their expenditure patterns. With additional supermarket space added in Sarnia, we have
assumed that some recapture of Trade Area residents’ expenditures would occur.
3. Inflow: Inflow sales would amount to approximately 10% for the subject site, and for any
other new supermarket in Sarnia.
4. Sales Levels: The average sales performance for new supermarket space in the City of
Sarnia has been tested at sales levels between $450 and $500 per square foot over the
study period (expressed in 2007 dollars). These can be compared to typical industry
averages in Canada of about $535 per square foot (based on Statistics Canada data,
2005).
6.2.1 Primary Zone Share
The Primary Zone Share refers to the expenditures of Trade Area residents made in Sarnia
supermarkets. Based on our in-home telephone consumer survey, approximately 99.7% of
Primary Zone residents’ supermarket/grocery store expenditures are currently made in Sarnia. In
the Secondary Zone, the Sarnia share has been calculated at 46.2%. With the addition of new
supermarket space of 60,000 square feet in Sarnia, the Sarnia shares are expected to increase
for Secondary Zone residents, as detailed in Figure 6-2.
6.2.2 Primary Zone Residual Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents
As indicated in Figure 6-2, based on Primary Zone shares applied to the total
supermarket/grocery expenditures, the current Primary Zone share of Trade Area residents’
supermarket expenditures is estimated at $178.5 million in 2007. With the addition of new
supermarket space in the City and future market growth, this share is forecast to increase to
$203.8 million by 2015; a growth of $25.3 million. This increase is referred to as the residual
potential, which represents the additional market potential available from Trade Area residents
to both existing and new supermarkets in Sarnia derived from population increases, real growth,
and recapture opportunities.
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Figure 6.1
SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS
2007
2010
2012
2015
Primary Zone
Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions)
Estimated Primary Zone Share %(1
Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions)
Residual Potential
2007 Dollars
$ 132.2
99.7%
$ 131.8
$ 140.7
99.7%
$ 140.3
$ 8.5
$ 143.5
99.7%
$ 143.1
$ 11.3
$ 147.6
99.7%
$ 147.2
$ 15.4
Secondary Zone
Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions)
Residual
$ 101.0
46.2%
$ 46.7
$ 107.3
50.0%
$ 53.7
$ 7.0
$ 109.6
50.0%
$ 54.8
$ 8.1
$ 113.2
50.0%
$ 56.6
$ 9.9
$ 233.2
$ 178.5
76.5%
$ 248.0
$ 194.0
78.2%
$ 253.1
$ 197.9
78.2%
$ 260.8
$ 203.8
78.1%
$ 178.5
$ 178.5
$ 15.5
$ 178.5
$ 19.4
$ 178.5
$ 25.3
$ 15.5
$ 1.7
$ 17.2
$ 19.4
$ 2.2
$ 21.6
$ 25.3
$ 2.8
$ 28.1
38,300
36,300
34,400
47,900
45,400
43,100
62,500
59,200
56,200
…/cont'd
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions)
Total Estimated Primary ZoneShare ($Millions)
Estimated Primary ZoneShare %
Existing Sales from Trade Area Residents ($Millions)
Residual Potential ($Millions)
Existing Supermarkets (394,900 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including
average Inflow of 10%):
$ 502
WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)
Additional Residual Potential Available
10.0%
(2
Plus Inflow Sales @
TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3
@ $450 per sq. ft.
@ $475 per sq. ft.
@ $500 per sq. ft.
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Figure 6.1
SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS (Continued)
2007 Dollars
PROPOSED SUPERMARKET SPACE - Primary Zone
Location A: Subject Site
Proposed Supermarket Space (square feet GLA)
Estimated Sales per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales ($Millions)
Less Inflow (%) (1
Less Inflow ($Millions)
Total Sales Volume From Trade Area Residents ($Millions)
Development Area 2
Proposed Supermarket Space (square feet GLA)
Less Inflow (%) (2
PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND
Total Proposed Space (sq. ft.)
Total Sales Volume ($ Millions)
Total Sales Volume Required from Trade Area Residents (excludes inflow)
Total Sales Volume Available from Trade Area Residents (excludes inflow)
Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+)
2007
2010
2012
2015
60,000
$ 475
$ 28.5
10%
$ 2.9
$ 25.7
60,000
$ 480
$ 28.8
10%
$ 2.9
$ 25.9
60,000
$ 500
$ 30.0
10%
$ 3.0
$ 27.0
$ 450
$0%
$$-
$ 480
$0%
$$-
40,000
$ 500
$ 20.0
10%
$ 2.0
$ 18.0
60,000
$ 28.5
$ 25.7
$ 15.5
-$10.2
60,000
$ 28.8
$ 25.9
$ 19.4
-$6.5
100,000
$ 50.0
$ 45.0
$ 25.3
-$19.7
1) urbanMetrics estimate based on telephone survey results.
2) urbanMetrics estimate.
3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.
6.2.3 Market Opportunity
Based on the residual potential available in Sarnia and assuming average inflow sales levels of
10%, without any sales transfers from existing supermarkets in Sarnia, some 38,300 square feet
(at $450/sq. ft.) of new supermarket space could be supported by 2010, increasing to some
56,200 square feet by 2015 (at $500/sq.ft.)
Reflecting the anticipated sales performance levels for new supermarket space in Sarnia, and
given the available residual potential noted above, the sales transfers required from existing
supermarkets in Sarnia would amount to some $10.2 million in 2010, with some reduction in
transfer to $6.5 million by 2012. By 2015, with an additional supermarket added, sales transfers
would increase to $19.7 million.
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6.3
Impact Analysis
Figure 6-3 provides a directional impact analysis, detailing the expected sales impacts on
existing supermarkets in the Primary Zone, with the introduction of two new supermarkets in the
local market: one on the subject site, and potentially another in Development Area 2, which
may or may not develop within the time period being analyzed in this report. This analysis has
been based on the results of our in-home telephone consumer survey, which has been
calibrated based on our experience on the expected sales performance of Sarnia
supermarkets.
The opening of any new retail facility or expansion to an existing store will typically cause some
sales transfer from existing stores. When sales transfers cause existing stores to experience a net
decline in sales below existing or base year levels, sales impact has occurred.
Sales impact can be, but is not always, critical. Critical sales impact occurs when the sales of
an existing store declines to a level that could threaten a store’s economic well-being and
place it at risk of closure. As a result, the closing of a store could affect the planned function of
a retail area of which it forms a part and this is potentially true if the store is an anchor for the
centre. Although it is not the intent of the municipality to regulate competition, it is important
that it retains healthy communities and traditional downtowns, and protects public investment
in the community. Therefore, the potential impact on existing retail nodes in the community is
an important consideration that must be tested in this study.
Based on the results of our analysis, existing Study Area supermarkets are currently achieving
average sales per square foot levels of $502. This average is considered at or above typical
industry norms.
With the addition of the new supermarket on the subject site, sales levels for the existing
supermarkets in the Primary Zone are expected to decline by some 5.7% on average by 2010, a
decline which is considered insignificant. By 2021, with the addition of a potential new
supermarket in Development Area 2, sales levels for the existing supermarkets in the Primary
Zone are expected to decline by some 11.0%. It is likely that the greatest impacts created by
the subject supermarket in 2010 would be on the Foodland on Lakeshore Road, and Price
Chopper and Wal-Mart in the Lambton Mall Area, especially given their proximity to the subject
site. However, the expected declines in the existing stores sales are not expected to result in
any store closures, with continued recovery to above existing sales levels.
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Figure 6.2
SUPERMARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS
Sales From
Percent
Trade Area Market Share
Residents
in Primary
Plus Inflow
($Millions) (1
Zone(1
Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES
2007
TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE
Node 1: Downtown Grocery
Node 2: Food Basics
Node 2: Davy Jones Everfresh
Node 3: Wal-Mart Groceries
Node 3: Loblaw Superstore
Node 3: A & P
Node 3: Price Chopper
Node 5: A & P
Node 5: No Frills
Node 9: Foodland
Node 11: Valu-Mart
Square
Footage
Sales Per
Square Foot
Levels
$ 178.5
$ 1.2
$ 17.1
$ 2.3
$ 23.9
$ 57.1
$ 16.6
$ 17.1
$ 16.1
$ 13.4
$ 4.6
$ 8.9
100.0%
0.7%
9.6%
1.3%
13.4%
32.0%
9.3%
9.6%
9.0%
7.5%
2.6%
5.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 198.3
$ 1.4
$ 19.0
$ 2.6
$ 26.6
$ 63.5
$ 18.4
$ 19.0
$ 17.9
$ 14.9
$ 5.2
$ 9.9
394,900
4,000
40,500
8,300
64,200
113,600
44,000
50,000
25,000
20,000
10,300
15,000
$ 502
$ 347
$ 470
$ 311
$ 414
$ 559
$ 419
$ 381
$ 714
$ 744
$ 501
$ 661
Node 11: Valu-Mart
Total Existing
$ 194.0
$ 1.4
$ 17.5
$ 2.3
$ 23.5
$ 51.8
$ 16.5
$ 16.9
$ 14.6
$ 11.8
$ 4.3
$ 8.0
$ 168.4
100.0%
0.7%
9.0%
1.2%
12.1%
26.7%
8.5%
8.7%
7.5%
6.1%
2.2%
4.1%
86.8%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 215.6
$ 1.5
$ 19.4
$ 2.6
$ 26.1
$ 57.6
$ 18.3
$ 18.8
$ 16.2
$ 13.1
$ 4.7
$ 8.8
$ 187.1
454,900
4,000
40,500
8,300
64,200
113,600
44,000
50,000
25,000
20,000
10,300
15,000
394,900
$ 474
$ 377
$ 479
$ 312
$ 406
$ 507
$ 416
$ 375
$ 647
$ 657
$ 460
$ 589
$ 474
Proposed:
Development Area 2
Total Proposed
$ 25.7
$$ 25.7
13.2%
0.0%
13.2%
10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
$ 28.5
$$ 28.5
60,000
60,000
$ 475
$$ 475
Change
from Base
Year
2010
TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE
Node 2: Food Basics
Node 3: A & P
Node 5: A & P
Node 5: No Frills
Node 9: Foodland
8.7%
1.9%
0.3%
-1.9%
-9.3%
-0.7%
-1.5%
-9.4%
-11.6%
-8.0%
-10.9%
-5.7%
…/Cont'd
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Figure 6.2
SUPERMARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS (Continued)
2012
TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE
Node 2: Food Basics
Node 3: A & P
Node 5: A & P
Node 5: No Frills
Node 9: Foodland
Node 11: Valu-Mart
Total Existing
$ 197.9
$ 1.4
$ 17.8
$ 2.4
$ 24.0
$ 52.9
$ 16.8
$ 17.2
$ 14.9
$ 12.1
$ 4.4
$ 8.1
$ 172.0
100.0%
0.7%
9.0%
1.2%
12.1%
26.7%
8.5%
8.7%
7.5%
6.1%
2.2%
4.1%
86.9%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 219.9
$ 1.5
$ 19.8
$ 2.6
$ 26.6
$ 58.8
$ 18.7
$ 19.2
$ 16.5
$ 13.4
$ 4.8
$ 9.0
$ 191.1
454,900
4,000
40,500
8,300
64,200
113,600
44,000
50,000
25,000
20,000
10,300
15,000
394,900
$ 483
$ 385
$ 489
$ 318
$ 415
$ 517
$ 425
$ 383
$ 660
$ 671
$ 470
$ 602
$ 484
Proposed:
Development Area 2
Total Proposed
$ 25.9
$$ 25.9
13.1%
0.0%
13.1%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 28.8
$$ 28.8
60,000
$ 480
$$ 480
Sales From
Percent
Trade Area Market Share
Residents
in Primary
Plus Inflow
($Millions) (1
Zone(1
Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES
2015
60,000
Square
Footage
Sales Per
Square Foot
Levels
TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE
Node 2: Food Basics
Node 3: A & P
Node 5: A & P
Node 5: No Frills
Node 9: Foodland
Node 11: Valu-Mart
Total Existing
$ 203.8
$ 1.3
$ 16.5
$ 2.2
$ 22.1
$ 48.8
$ 15.6
$ 15.9
$ 13.7
$ 11.2
$ 4.0
$ 7.5
$ 158.8
100.0%
0.6%
8.1%
1.1%
10.9%
24.0%
7.6%
7.8%
6.7%
5.5%
2.0%
3.7%
77.9%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 226.4
$ 1.4
$ 18.3
$ 2.4
$ 24.6
$ 54.3
$ 17.3
$ 17.7
$ 15.2
$ 12.4
$ 4.5
$ 8.3
$ 176.4
494,900
4,000
40,500
8,300
64,200
113,600
44,000
50,000
25,000
20,000
10,300
15,000
394,900
$ 458
$ 356
$ 452
$ 294
$ 383
$ 478
$ 393
$ 354
$ 610
$ 620
$ 434
$ 556
$ 447
Proposed:
Development Area 2
Total Proposed
$ 27.0
$ 18.0
$ 45.0
13.2%
8.8%
22.1%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
$ 30.0
$ 20.0
$ 50.0
60,000
40,000
100,000
$ 500
$ 500
$ 500
11.0%
4.1%
2.5%
0.2%
-7.4%
1.5%
0.6%
-7.5%
-9.7%
-6.1%
-9.0%
-3.7%
Change
from Base
Year
2.5%
-3.9%
-5.4%
-7.5%
-14.5%
-6.3%
-7.1%
-14.6%
-16.6%
-13.3%
-16.0%
-11.0%
1) Current sales estimates are based on the results of the in-home telephone consumer survey, and our assessment of each
shares likely performance.
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7.
Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) Analysis
In this section of the study, we have evaluated the future market potential available for nonfood store retail (NFSR) facilities in the City of Sarnia and specifically the market opportunity for
NFSR space on the subject site. NFSR space represents the other major component of retail
space that will be located on the subject site in addition to FSR space.
7.1
NFSR Expenditure Potential
The following section examines per capita expenditures and the NFSR expenditure potential
available from Trade Area residents.
7.1.1 Per Capita NFSR Expenditures
Based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, the 2007 average per capita non-food store
retail expenditure in Ontario is estimated at $5,169 (See Appendix C for details).
As indicated in Figure 7-1, for Trade Area residents, the 2007 average per capita non-food store
retail expenditure has been estimated based on the income relationship between the Province
and the Trade Area, and an expenditure related regression equation, which calculates an
expenditure index based on income level. The 2007 per capita NFSR expenditures have been
estimated at $5,210, for the Primary Zone (Sarnia and Point Edward), and $4,947 for the
Secondary Zone (remainder of Lambton County).
For Trade Area residents, the 2007 average per capita NFSR expenditure is expected to
increase at a rate of 1.5% per year on an uninflated basis during the study period. Again, future
changes in expenditure patterns solely due to inflation have not been recognized in this analysis
(see Appendix C for historic real growth).
7.1.2 Expenditure Potential from Trade Area Residents
The total NFSR potential of Trade Area residents over the study period has been calculated by
multiplying the average per capita NFSR expenditure by the current and projected population
residing in the Trade Area.
In total, the non-food store retail potential available from Trade Area residents is estimated at
$678.2 million in 2007, increasing to $792.3 million by 2015; a growth of $114.1 million (expressed
in 2007 dollars).
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It should be recognized that the expenditure potential indicated in Figure 7-1 is that which is
available from Trade Area residents only, and represents the expenditure potential available to
stores located both in the Trade Area and outside the Trade Area.
Figure 7.1
PER CAPITA NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
2007
2007 Dollars
Province of Ontario
Per Capita NFSR Expenditure
$ 5,169 (1
2007 Dollars
Primary Zone
NFSR Expenditure Index to Province
Population
TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions)
Home Improvement & Department Stores (2
Other NFSR Stores (2
Home Improvement & Department Stores
Other NFSR Stores
Total
Secondary Zone
NFSR Expenditure Index to Province
Population
Home Improvement & Department Stores (2
Other NFSR Stores (2
Home Improvement & Department Stores
Other NFSR Stores
Total
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Cumulative Growth
2007
2010
2012
2015
101.50
100.80
$ 5,210
76,165
$ 396.8
27.0%
73.0%
100.0%
$ 5,444
77,247
$ 420.5
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 5,601
77,978
$ 436.8
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 5,835
79,086
$ 461.5
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 107.2
$ 289.6
$ 396.8
$ 105.1
$ 315.4
$ 420.5
$ 109.2
$ 327.6
$ 436.8
$ 115.4
$ 346.1
$ 461.5
92.40
99.10
$ 4,947
56,876
$ 281.4
27.0%
73.0%
100.0%
$ 76.0
$ 205.4
$ 281.4
$ 5,170
57,921
$ 299.5
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 74.9
$ 224.6
$ 299.5
$ 5,318
58,626
$ 311.8
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 78.0
$ 233.9
$ 311.9
$ 5,541
59,702
$ 330.8
25.0%
75.0%
100.0%
$ 82.7
$ 248.1
$ 330.8
$ 720.0
$ 41.8
$ 748.6
$ 70.4
$ 792.3
$ 114.1
$ 678.2
1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade.
2) Based on the results of the in-home telephone consumer survey.
7.1.3 Distribution of Expenditures
For the purposes of our analysis, we have divided the total NFSR expenditure potential into two
major store types: Home Improvement Store and Department Store; and Other NFSR stores as
urbanMetrics inc.
7-2
indicated in Figure 7-1. These NFSR distributions for each Trade Area zone are urbanMetrics’
estimates based on our review of average Provincial shares (see Appendix C), our survey results,
and our inventory of retail space. For the forecast period, these shares have been held
constant. Since no home improvement centre or department store are proposed on the site or
elsewhere, our analysis is focused on the other NFSR portion of this retail category.
7.2
Other NFSR Space Analysis
In Sarnia, there is an estimated 1,289,900 square feet of “Other NFSR” space (excluding home
improvement space, department stores and automotive tires/ batteries/ accessory stores), with
the majority of this space located in Lambton Mall/Area (i.e. “Commercial Centre”) and in the
Downtown.
This analysis examines the market opportunity for additional “other NFSR” space in Sarnia, as
well as the potential overall sales impacts of the new NFSR space on the existing retail facilities
in the City.
Our assessment of the market opportunity for additional “other NFSR” space is provided using
the following assumptions:
•
Space Assumptions: A total of 70,000 square feet of “other NFSR” space is assumed for the
subject site. In addition, other potential space of some 140,000 square feet has been
assumed on the SmartCentres site. Both these sites are assumed to have a first full year of
operation in 2010, which is a conservative assumption as it is likely that a large portion of this
space would be phased in over a number of years. We have also assumed a vacancy
uptake of some 50,000 square feet, recognizing the significant amount of vacant space in
Sarnia, including the vacant Wal-Mart in Lambton Mall. In addition, a space allocation of
up to 100,000 square feet for other designated sites has also been included, with this space
naturally phased in over the study period.
•
Recapture: We have assumed that the majority of Trade Area residents’ “other NFSR”
expenditures are currently being made in Sarnia as derived from the consumer survey.
However, it is expected that new facilities in Sarnia will result in some recapture of
expenditures that currently flow outside of Lambton County to locations such as the USA
and London (about a one hour drive). The extent of this recapture will largely be influenced
by the specific stores developed in the centre, and whether they are unique to the local
market.
urbanMetrics inc.
7-3
•
Inflow: Inflow sales would amount to approximately 15% of the total “other NFSR” volume
derived at the subject site, and for the vacancy uptake/other designated space, with a
20% inflow assumed for the SmartCentres site, due to its regional influence.
•
Sales Levels: The average sales performance for the new “other NFSR” retail facilities on the
subject site has been tested at between $250 and $350 per square foot over the study
period (expressed in 2007 dollars). It should be recognized, however, that sales performance
levels can vary significantly by store type (see Appendix C for Canadian averages). The
figures utilized in our analysis for the subject site are intended as averages for the type of
stores expected to locate in the project, and in other areas of Sarnia.
7.2.1 Primary Zone Share
Based on our telephone consumer survey results, the Primary Zone Share of total “other NFSR”
expenditures in 2007 has been estimated at an average of 90.9% for Primary Zone residents and
46.2% for Secondary Zone residents. The introduction of new retail facilities on the subject site
and elsewhere in the community is expected to increase these shares in future years.
In total, Trade Area residents’ existing Sarnia share of total “other NFSR” has been estimated at
$358.1 million in 2007. With recapture, market growth and real growth, this share could increase
to $447.7 million by 2015; a growth of $89.6 million.
7.2.2 Residual Expenditure Potential
As indicated in Figure 7-2, the residual expenditure potential available from Trade Area
residents available to existing and new “other NFSR” space in Sarnia is estimated at $49.1 million
in 2010, increasing to $89.6 million by 2015 (expressed in 2007 dollars).
7.2.3 Market Opportunity for Other NFSR Space
Utilizing the same methodology used in our supermarket analysis, with increased recapture
opportunities and assuming no sales transfers from existing retailers in Sarnia, the City could
support some 231,100 square feet of additional “other NFSR” space by 2010 (at $250/sq ft),
increasing to 301,200 square feet by 2015 (at $350/sq ft).
The proposed/potential retail facilities evaluated would likely generate an estimated combined
sales volume of $53.5 million in 2010, increasing to $84.2 million in 2015. Recognizing inflow, the
sales volume required from Trade Area residents would amount to $64.6 million in 2010,
increasing to $101.5 million in 2015. When available residual expenditure potential in Sarnia is
recognized, sales transfers required from existing Sarnia “other NFSR” facilities would amount to
about $4.4 million in 2010, and about $0.9 million by 2012.
urbanMetrics inc.
7-4
7.3
Impact Analysis
With the phased addition of some 220,000 to 310,000 square feet of “Other NFSR” space in
Sarnia, existing retailers in Sarnia would experience no decline in sales levels in 2010. By 2012,
existing retailers in the Primary Zone would experience a 1% growth in sales levels and the
growth would continue to increase in future years. The existing average sales performance
level for “Other NFSR” stores in Sarnia has been estimated at $327 per square feet, assuming a
15% inflow, which is considered a reasonable average sales performance level. With the
potential space additions in 2010, these sales levels would remain unchanged, and then would
increase to $329 per square foot by 2012, and to $340 per square foot by 2015.
Figure 7.2
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS (Excluding Home Improvement & Department Store)
2007 Dollars
2007
2010
2012
2015
Primary Zone
Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) ($Millions)
Residual Potential
$ 289.6
90.9%
$ 263.2
$ 315.4
93.5%
$ 294.9
$ 31.7
$ 327.6
93.5%
$ 306.3
$ 43.1
$ 346.1
93.5%
$ 323.6
$ 60.4
Secondary Zone
Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) ($Millions)
Residual
$ 205.4
46.2%
$ 94.9
$ 224.6
50.0%
$ 112.3
$ 17.4
$ 233.9
50.0%
$ 117.0
$ 22.1
$ 248.1
50.0%
$ 124.1
$ 29.2
$ 495.0
$ 358.1
72.3%
$ 540.0
$ 407.2
75.4%
$ 561.5
$ 423.3
75.4%
$ 594.2
$ 447.7
75.3%
$ 358.1
$ 358.1
$ 49.1
$ 358.1
$ 65.2
$ 358.1
$ 89.6
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) Expenditures ($Millions)
Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions)
Estimated Primary Zone Share %
Existing Sales from Trade Area Residents ($Millions)
Residual Potential ($Millions)
Existing Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) Stores(1,289,900 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft.
Levels (Including average Inflow of 15%):
$ 327
WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)
$ 49.1
$ 65.2
$ 89.6
Additional Residual Potential Available
$ 8.7
$ 11.5
$ 15.8
Plus Inflow Sales @
(2
15.0%
TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE
$ 57.8
$ 76.7
$ 105.4
WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3
@ $250 per sq. ft.
@ $275 per sq. ft.
@ $300 per sq. ft.
@ $325 per sq. ft.
@ $350 per sq. ft.
231,100
210,100
192,500
177,700
165,000
306,800
278,900
255,700
236,000
219,200
421,600
383,300
351,400
324,300
301,200
…/cont'd
urbanMetrics inc.
7-5
Figure 7.2
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS (Excluding Home Improvement & Department Store) (Continued)
2007
2007 Dollars
PROPOSED Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) SPACE - Primary Zone
Proposed Space (square feet GLA)
Less Inflow (%) (2
Location B: SmartCentres Site
Less Inflow (%) (2
2010
2012
2015
70,000
$ 275
$ 19.3
15%
$ 2.9
$ 16.4
70,000
$ 285
$ 20.0
15%
$ 3.0
$ 17.0
70,000
$ 290
$ 20.3
15%
$ 3.0
$ 17.3
100,000
$ 275
$ 27.5
20%
$ 5.5
$ 22.0
120,000
$ 285
$ 34.2
20%
$ 6.8
$ 27.4
140,000
$ 290
$ 40.6
20%
$ 8.1
$ 32.5
Location C: Vacant Space Take-Up (Portion, including vacant Wal-Mart) and Undeveloped Designation Sites
50,000
75,000
$ 275
$ 285
$ 13.8
$ 21.4
Less Inflow (%) (2
15%
15%
$ 2.1
$ 3.2
$ 11.7
$ 18.2
100,000
$ 290
$ 29.0
15%
$ 4.4
$ 24.7
PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND
Total Proposed Space (sq. ft.)
Total Sales Volume ($ Millions)
Total Sales Volume Required from Trade Area Residents (excludes inflow)
Total Sales Volume Available from Trade Area Residents (excludes inflow)
Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+)
IMPACT ON EXISTING OTHER NFSR STORES
Existing Primary Stores Sales from Trade Area Residents
Plus Inflow
15.0%
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
Sales Per Square Foot Levels
Change from Existing Levels
$ 358.1
$ 63.2
$ 421.3
1,289,900
$327
220,000
$ 60.6
$ 50.1
$ 49.1
-$1.0
265,000
$ 75.6
$ 62.6
$ 65.2
$ 2.6
310,000
$ 89.9
$ 74.4
$ 89.6
$ 15.2
$ 357.1
$ 63.0
$ 420.1
1,289,900
$326
0%
$ 360.7
$ 63.7
$ 424.4
1,289,900
$329
1%
$ 373.3
$ 65.9
$ 439.2
1,289,900
$340
4%
NOTE:
1) urbanmetrics inc., based on telephone survey results, future years based on urbanMetrics estimates.
2) urbanMetrics estimate.
3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.
urbanMetrics inc.
7-6
8.
Conclusions
Based on our market demand and impact analysis, we conclude that from a market
perspective, there is opportunity for a supermarket anchored retail development on the subject
site and this development is feasible and desirable on the basis of its location, size and function.
The following summarizes the results of our analysis:
•
The subject site has good potential for retail/service uses based on its locational
attributes, including its proximity to Highway 402 and location at the intersection of
Modeland Road and Michigan Street, both of which are major routes.
•
Additional population growth is expected to continue in Sarnia and elsewhere in
Lambton County in future years. Based on current building activity, northeast Sarnia in
close proximity to the subject site is expected to capture a significant portion of this future
growth and this future population would warrant additional commercial retail facilities in
the area. The proposed retail facilities on the subject site would serve this population
residing in the local area in the future and the existing underserved population living in
north Sarnia.
•
A locally serving retail commercial development on the subject site will not create
negative impacts on existing commercial facilities to the extent that it threatens the
existing commercial life of other centres in Sarnia.
•
There are limited retail facilities north of Highway 402, and a neighbourhood centre would
provide a greater range of shopping opportunities for residents in north-east Sarnia.
•
The City’s Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review indicates that there is a lack of supply
of vacant, designated, zoned, serviced and visible commercial sites in Sarnia. A retail
commercial development on the subject site would add to the City’s existing inventory,
and make up part of this shortfall through development of lands that are better located
within the urban boundary.
•
The City’s Commercial Land Needs & Policy Review recommends three potential sites to
accommodate future growth needs, suggesting that there is a need for additional
commercial facilities. Our review of these sites suggests to us that the subject site is a
much better alternative to these sites.
urbanMetrics inc.
8-1
•
Any impact created by the proposed development is considered minor in scale and over
the longer term there will still be opportunity for development of additional retail areas of
the City.
urbanMetrics inc.
8-2
Appendix A: Inventory
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
1
Node
Name of Shopping Centre
Address
Code
Downtown
Bayside Centre
150 Christina Street North
40
Description
Home Furnishings Stores
Store Name
Total
Crafts
1,400
Liquidation World Furniture
3,200
Mandarin Arts
1,900
Rugs by Winton
3,500
60
Home Electronics and Appliance Stores
Marsh TV
2,000
100
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores
Sampler
1,200
120
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores
Betty's Boutique
2,000
Hogan Pharmacy
2,000
Sarnia Vision Centre
3,000
140
Clothing Stores
Pantorama
4,000
T's and Sweats
2,400
150
Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery
Stores
Mini Accessories
180
Other General Merchandise Stores
190
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
300
Vacant
Tender Tootsies
2,600
Dollar World Plus
3,300
Liquidation World
45,000
Art Bees Gallery
1,500
Bear Creek Studio
3,600
Gallery Lambton
6,800
Vacant ex Lindor
1,300
Vacant ex Rivernet
1,300
Vacant ex TN Nails
600
Vacant ex Bentleys
800
Vacant ex Bluewater Bulk
Vacant ex fast food
Vacant ex Golden Cup
1,700
500
500
Vacant ex Hamby's
1,400
Vacant ex Legends
1,400
Vacant ex MPP office
1,700
Vacant ex Perfect Seam
600
Vacant ex Perfet Seam
600
Vacant ex Regis Hair Styling
urbanMetrics inc.
800
1,000
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
700
Vacant ex Smoke Room
800
Vacant ex SR. VIP
900
Vacant ex Telus
SE of Christina Street
North/Lochiel St
SW of Christina Street
North/Lochiel St
(blank)
1,000
190
Energy Exchange Art Design Studio
300
Vacant
Vacant
5,700
100
Milk Marc
2,100
190
Longtree Studio
Sarnia Market
101 Victoria Street
Total
Vacant ex Rogers AT&T
90
Supermarkets
800
3,000
11,300
Downtown Grocery
4,000
3,900
190
Ye Old Pawn Shoppe
300
Vacant
Vacant
900
190
Sarnia's Flea Market
121 Christina Street South
300
Vacant
Vacant
190
Salvation Army Thrift Store
2,900
300
Vacant
Vacant
3,000
300
150
Vacant
Stores
Betty Dee
Vacant
5,700
700
800
1,000
190
Lawrence House Centre For The Arts
4,900
300
Vacant
1,000
160
Vacant
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book
Stores
Cheeky Monkey
5,000
Furniture Stores
Urban Escape
2,100
132 Front Street North
30
140
Clothing Stores
Harbour Bay Clothing
1,700
300
Vacant
Vacant
8,300
140
Clothing Stores
La Cache
1,500
Zony's Custom Framing
Vacant
Vacant
Feather Your Nest
1,500
8,700
138 Cromwell Street
40
300
40
30
500
500
Furniture Stores
Taylor's Furniture
140 Cromwell Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
700
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,500
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,700
142 Lochiel Street
190
4,100
4,200
190
Manley's Basics Office Supplies
Alcove Gift Shop And Custom
Framing
144 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,400
140
Clothing Stores
Colin's Formal Wear
1,500
190
Sunday Flea Market
3,300
145 Wellington Street
120
Wellington Pharmacy
146 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,900
700
100
Adam's Apple Food
4,000
190
Art Studio
2,100
300
1,400
150
Vacant
Stores
Vacant
149 Davis Street
Vail Jewelers
1,200
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,600
190
Grace Brothers Antiques
8,200
159 Lochiel Street
100
Junior Baker
1,100
161 Lochiel Street
150
Vacant
1,100
Future Pastimes
1,800
Vacant
1,300
163 Lochiel Street
160
Stores
Stores
165 Lochiel Street
300
Vacant
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,100
120
Vacant
2,600
Hutchinson's Decor And Gifts
2,600
Vacant
Vacant
1,700
40
300
Rugs
2,000
300
40
Vacant
Vacant
2,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
300
Vacant
1,900
Vacant
Drapery & Upholstery Clearance
Centre
2,000
Vacant
Vacant
3,000
2,200
40
300
140
Clothing Stores
Themptations
180 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
700
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,900
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
300
Vacant
Vacant
182 Davis Street
190
Call It What You Like
140
Clothing Stores
Half Pint
2,900
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,000
140
Clothing Stores
Aliya Fashions Limited
1,900
140
Clothing Stores
Maran Fashions
2,200
40
300
190
191 George Street
40
1,900
700
Presents
2,100
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
Barclay's Antiques And Barbershop
2,200
Carpet Liquidators
9,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
5,600
192 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
194 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
3,300
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,700
198 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,300
20 Davis Street
190
Trading Post
2,300
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,200
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,200
300
Vacant
Vacant
6,300
300
Vacant
1,200
160
Vacant
Stores
Stardust Book Lounge
2,200
190
Mackellar's Flowers
1,900
140
2,900
150
Clothing Stores
Stores
Harbour Bay Clothes And Gifts
Ballett's The Wedding Specialist
2,300
190
Parkside U Brew
2,000
140
Clothing Stores
Silhouettes
2,600
100
Sweet Tooth
1,000
110
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores
Stores
LCBO
2,000
160
urbanMetrics inc.
Jack Kennedy Music Centre
11,800
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
277 Vidal Street South
180
Vidal Variety
1,000
190
Outside In
1,500
190
Forever Classic
1,500
40
Brush Strokes Interior
2,400
190
Bill Bush Flower
1,500
160
80
321 Queen Street
80
Stores
Specialized Building Materials and Garden
Stores
Stores
Lord's Sewing
Palazzi
3,300
2,700
World Source Filtration
5,500
2,700
300
Vacant
Vacant
337 Queen Street
140
1,200
80
Clothing Stores
Stores
Artwear Plus Embroidery
340 Queen Street
Clysdale Heating And Plumbing
1,200
Vacant
Vacant
Computer and Software Stores
Digital Friends
1,400
1,200
300
50
140
Clothing Stores
Body Moves Sports Apparel
300
Vacant
160
150
Vacant
Stores
Stores
100
40
100
10,800
900
900
Bicycle Shop
3,000
Henne's Jewellery
2,000
Bread Store (the)
1,000
Carpet One
6,000
Mac's
Downtown Total
Confederation
800
Integrity Industrial Absorbent Products
Zanki Mechanical
2
Total
2,500
399,700
Confederation Square
30
Furniture Stores
Gigi Home And Hearth
4,900
60
Celerity Communications
2,100
Total Electric Supply Ltd.
4,900
80
Stores
Centennial Home Windows
2,000
90
Supermarkets
Davy Jones Food Market
8,300
120
Central Beauty Supply
1,000
140
Clothing Stores
Stores
Silk Screen
1,700
Toy Corner
2,200
160
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Sherwood Plaza
(blank)
Address
Code
Store Name
Total
190
Vinter's Classic
1,500
300
Vacant
Vacant
4,700
Flooring Max
4,200
100
40
Mac's
3,100
190
Mega Brewing Co
2,600
110
Beer Store
70
300
Description
60
80
800
Home Centres and Hardware Stores
Rona
Vacant
Vacant
18,800
Stores
Pure Power
2,400
Reliant Home Comfort
1,000
1,400
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
300
2,000
80
Vacant
Stores
Vacant
EMCO Industrial Pipe
2,100
Interar Technologies
2,100
300
60
80
Invensys
2,100
Mellon Electrical Solutions
2,100
Sarnia Welding And Co
2,100
Summit Controls
2,100
Winkle
2,100
Vacant
Vacant
4,200
Stores
TELUS And Spectrum Communications
6,100
Culligan
6,500
Matheson Valves
4,900
Stores
Stores
Great Lakes Industrial Controls
2,000
Mentec Sarnia
2,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
9,200
100
Mac's
2,100
140
Clothing Stores
Stores
Body Moves Sports Apparel
1,200
Built Right Doors
500
Confederation Variety
300
80
80
80
180
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
3
Node
Confederation
Total
Lambton
Mall/Area
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
700 Ontario Street
180
Park Variety
1,400
750 Ontario Street
300
Vacant
Stores
Stores
Vacant
2,300
834 Upper Canada Drive
80
80
190
80
80
80
80
300
80
80
100
Stores
Stores
Stores
Stores
Tower Scan
500
Rotor Valve Control Specialist
900
Baysar Office Equipment
900
Pro Insul Limited
900
Therman Heating Specialist
900
Glentel - Digital Mobile Systems -
900
Online Sealing Services
900
Vacant
Stores
Stores
Vacant
500
Canadian Bearings Ltd
500
Triple S Tubing Steel Hydraulic Tubing
400
Star Mini Mart
1,800
138,100
Lambton Mall Road Centre
1202 - 1362 Lambton Mall
1202 - 1362 Lambton Mall
Road
300
Vacant
Vacant ex Mark's Work Wearhouse
3,300
40
Casey's Creative Kitchens
2,500
60
Rogers
2,000
TELUS
80
100
London Road Shopping Centre
1249 London Road
900
Xcelco Internet
1,300
Stores
ICI Paints
4,100
Bulk Barn
5,100
M&M Meat Shops
1,900
Urban Loaf
3,000
120
Popeyes Supplement
2,000
140
Clothing Stores
Jacqueline's Fashion
2,200
Pennington's
5,800
150
Stores
Young And Co Jewels
2,500
190
Ups
1,000
30
Furniture Stores
Easy Home
3,300
40
Main Frame
1,200
Blue Water Nutrition And Health
1,700
120
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Sarnia Centre
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
170
Department Stores
Zellers
105,000
190
Forever Memories
1,200
Good Will
6,500
Good Will Donation Centre
2,400
Vacant
7,700
300
Vacant
1349 London Road
300
Vacant
Vacant (Ex The Game Station)
1375 London Road
90
Supermarkets
A&P
44,000
28,100
1379 London Road
Furniture Stores
Brick (The)
120
30
Borics Hair care
190
My Secret Garden
Petsmart
SmartCentres
1444 Quinn Drive
The Sarnia Price Chopper Centre
1330 Exmouth Street
Zehrs Food Plus Centre
(blank)
170
600 Murphy Road
1,200
1,200
1,600
16,000
Staples Business Depot
24,200
Value Village
21,000
Department Stores
Wal-Mart (Non-Food Part)
149,800
30
Furniture Stores
Sleep Country
18,000
90
Supermarkets
Price Chopper
50,000
10,000
110
LCBO
140
Clothing Stores
Moore's
6,000
Mores The Suit People
6,500
160
Stores
Fantastic Sam's
3,000
180
XS Cargo
10,000
190
Pet Valu
10,000
60
Source By Circuit City
90
Supermarkets
Loblaw Superstore
2,300
113,600
140
Clothing Stores
Winners
24,100
300
Vacant
Vacant (Ex Bulk Barn)
21,000
Furniture Stores
Stores
Leon's
12,700
1000 Barclay Drive
30
1095 London Road
160
Crafters Paradise
2,000
5,300
1152 London Road
40
Living Lighting
1200 Lambton Mall Road
50
PC Shop Computers
Vacant
Vacant
300
urbanMetrics inc.
900
3,300
Node
No.
Node
Address
1200 London Road
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
50
Computer Sales And Service
5,900
60
Carman's Foto Source
2,200
120
Hakim Optical
2,200
140
Clothing Stores
Adult Connections
2,200
Lux Boutique
1,600
1272 London Road
70
Home Hardware
6,800
1308 London Road
30
Furniture Stores
Stores
Liquidators
1,700
Tj Liquidator-Trailer Sales
7,600
190
Fins Feathers And Furs
2,000
300
Vacant
Stores
Fabricland
11,500
80
1337 London Road
160
Vacant
8,000
1350 Quinn Drive
70
Home Depot
90,000
1370 Quinn Drive
190
Princess Auto
16,000
1372 Exmouth Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
15,000
1380 Exmouth Street
60
Future Shop
19,000
Sarnia Heating
1,700
160
Stores
Stores
Sarnia Christian Books
3,600
190
Party Palace
3,100
Pet Food Warehouse
1,900
1407 London Road
80
Vine Well
1,900
1410 London Road
30
Furniture Stores
Bryenton's Furniture
14,300
1437 London Road
60
St Clair Audio Video
4,300
1439 London Road
30
Furniture Stores
Baileys Street Furniture
3,900
1441 London Road
300
Vacant
Vacant
Supermarkets
Wal-Mart (Groceries)
64,200
Vacant
Vacant
20,000
Bell World
1444 Quinn Drive
90
1500 London Road
300
531 Murphy Road
60
2,800
1,400
537 Murphy Road
40
Sac Well Flooring Centres
8,700
541 Murphy Road
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,600
555 Murphy Road
140
Clothing Stores
Kokomo Sun Tanning And Swimwear
2,600
565 Murphy Road
140
Clothing Stores
Fashion Expressions
2,200
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
190
580 Murphy Road
80
100
Description
Store Name
Stores
St Clair Window And Door
Mac's
1,900
Rangoon International Food
1,100
Shoe Box
1,500
Wine Kitz
595 Murphy Road
160
701 London Road
100
Express Mart
1,800
792 London Road
100
Big A Convenience
1,200
Lambton Mall
1380 London Road
110
Beer Store
Lambton Mall
1380 London Road
160
Pro Max Sports
Sport Chek
Lambton Mall/Area Total
Lambton Mall
800
1,600
Stores
Stores
Stores
150
4
Total
1,500
15,000
1,108,700
2,900
30
Furniture Stores
Tepperman's
40
Covers
5,500
English Butler
1,800
60
Bell World
1,600
100
Electronic Boutique
1,300
TELUS
1,600
The Source
2,000
Wireless Wave
1,000
Kernel's
Laura Secord
The Sampler
120
140
Clothing Stores
urbanMetrics inc.
31,800
200
600
1,300
Body Shop
900
GNC
800
Pearle Vision
3,000
Alia/Tan Jay
1,800
American Eagle
4,600
Blue Notes
3,400
Boat House
3,400
Bootlegger
4,200
Campus Crew
2,000
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Cotton Ginny
1,300
Dynamite
1,800
Garage
4,400
3,200
La Vie En Rose
2,100
Le Château
3,300
Lindor
1,500
Northern Reflections
3,000
2,000
Reitman's
3,200
Ricki's
3,600
Roots
2,200
Smart Set
2,600
Stefi Lara
1,500
Stitches
2,700
Suzy Shier
3,000
The Running Room
2,200
West 49
2,500
Zack's
1,700
Aldo Shoes
1,900
Ardene
1,300
Ben Moss
1,000
Bentley Leather
1,300
Charm Diamond Centre
1,600
900
Cleo
2,900
Foot Locker
3,800
Naturalizer
Payless Shoes
14,000
Please Mum
Claire's
urbanMetrics inc.
900
La Senza
Marks Works Warehouse
Stores
2,700
Danier
Kazwear Swimwear
150
Total
900
2,600
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Peoples
160
Stores
200
UNIC
200
Coles
3,200
Play It Again Sports
4,200
Sport Mart
6,400
Toys R Us
3,200
22,000
170
Department Stores
Sears
135,000
180
Canadian Tire
106,300
190
Envirotrends
1,300
Govinda Galleries
2,000
Green Earth
1,700
Hallmark
2,200
Personally Yours
300
Vacant
Vacant
Vacant Ex Wal-Mart
Lambton Mall
Total
Exmouth Street
2,200
Sunglass Hut
Sunrise Records
5
Total
400
20,100
129,100
599,000
City Centre Mall
415 Exmouth Street
100
Millenium Plaza
746 Exmouth Street
140
Clothing Stores
Northgate Plaza
500 Exmouth Street
190
100
140
150
160
Clothing Stores
Stores
Stores
Video 99
Bud Gowan Formal Wear
1,500
Lutonia Belle Bridal Boutique
1,000
Lapier's Flowers & Gifts
1,000
County Butcher
800
Ticket & Moore Convenience
400
Oxford Street
1,500
Reno
1,500
Diamond & Design
700
Rivers Shoes
900
Children's Garden
1,400
Sam the Recordman
2,000
The Bookeepers
urbanMetrics inc.
1,500
800
Node
No.
Node
(blank)
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
180
Dollarama
3,400
190
Shuylers
1,000
1045 Colborne Road
100
Colborne Mini Mart
2,500
400 Exmouth Street
100
Mac's
1,500
424 Exmouth Street
190
2,000
160
Stores
Petfood Warehouse
426 Exmouth Street
Bluewater Sportstich
3,000
429 Exmouth Street
120
430 Exmouth Street
160
Stores
452 Exmouth Street
300
478 Exmouth Street
120
Medecine Shoppe Pharmacy
2,500
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
N Shape Nutrition
510 Exmouth Street
120
Shoppers Drugmart
551 Exmouth Street
190
Flowers Plus
560 Exmouth Street
749 Exmouth Street
775 Exmouth Street
90
Supermarkets
A&P
120
Northgate Pharmacy
180
Stores
General Paint
80
800
Pickers Alley
Giant Tiger
400
20,000
500
25,000
1,000
10,400
3,500
190
Just Baskits
1,800
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
785 Exmouth Street
40
Carpet SuperStore
2,700
795 Exmouth Street
60
Harry's Vacuums
1,000
190
Healthy Paws
100
Murphy Convenience
1,000
2,000
798 Murphy Road
400
810 Colborne Road
70
Home Hardware
850 Colborne Road
60
Everything Wholesale
800
TELUS
800
867 Exmouth Street
889 Exmouth Street
100
Waterbug (the)
800
180
Duch Shoppe (the)
800
190
Lasting Impressions
100
Seo Mini-Mart
90
190
Supermarkets
No Frills
Pet Zone
urbanMetrics inc.
800
1,000
20,000
1,700
Node
No.
Node
Address
Code
at Colborne Exmouth Street
300
Description
Store Name
Vacant
Vacant
Exmouth Street Total
6
London Line
7
5,000
136,400
(blank)
1644 London Line
160
1660 London Line
40
1679 London Line
100
1699 London Line
70
1787 London Line
30
1840 London Line
80
1845 London Line
30
1900 London Line
160
Stores
Brian's Footwear Wearhouse
7,300
Sarnia Furniture & Sleep Centre
8,200
Canada Springs
Tsc The Incredible Country Hardware
Store
Furniture Stores
Stores
United Furniture Warehouse
16,100
Degroot's Garden Centre
36,500
Furniture Stores
Stores
Forever Furniture Galleries
31,500
All Season Trophies
6,400
4,100
2097 London Line
100
2574 London Line
190
Milk Marc Variety
Koundtree And Peddler Crafts And
Gifts
London Line
London Line
Total
Mitton
Village/Area
Total
30
1,400
18,300
1,300
Furniture Stores
Vov Furniture
300
Vacant
Vacant
18,300
300
Vacant
1,600
4,500
153,900
Milton Village
104 Milton Street South
160
Vacant
Stores
Ewe Are Special Wool Shop
1,300
120
Medical Motion
1,500
190
Party Of 5 2nd Hand Kids Clothes
1,200
60
Vacuum And Sewing Machines
2,300
190
160
Stores
Van Goozen Music
300
Vacant
Vacant
900
300
Vacant
Vacant
900
120
129 Bright Street
Wine Factory
700
2,300
Shoppers Drug Mart
3,600
50
Computer Complete
1,000
40
Kitchen Widgets And More
1,900
130 Milton Street North
180
Bargain Shop
6,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
900
300
Vacant
Vacant
3,300
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
(blank)
Address
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
60
Empire Wireless
1,900
300
Vacant
Vacant
9,300
300
Vacant
Vacant
120
Eye Guy
148 Cameron Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
Oval Electronics
60
190
60
900
1,200
600
1,000
Green Store
2,100
System Direct Electronics
1,000
164 Ontario Street
190
K9 Images Pet Grooming
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
800
190
Jack's Reconditioned Appliances
1,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
300
1,200
160
Vacant
Stores
Vacant
Outdoor's Man
1,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
300
Vacant
Vacant
800
190
Affordable Pet Grooming
1,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
120
Orthopaedic Supply Co
1,500
80
Stores
Budget Paint
1,100
101 Ontario Street
60
Carman's Foto Source
2,600
103 Amiton Drive
300
1,300
160
Vacant
Stores
Vacant
Team Outfitters
1,300
Sarnia Computer Centre
5,300
Vacant
Vacant
1,800
105 Ontario Street
50
109 Ontario Street
300
110 Proctor Street
100
120 Russell Street North
70
Farmers Market
11,500
Home Hardware
8,200
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,700
126 Ontario Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
900
128 Ontario Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
700
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
8
Vacant
Stores
Vacant
2,000
2,000
1,800
300
160
180
B&B's Model Shop
Russell's Conner Gifts Cards And
Variety
175 Ontario Street
100
Lotto Centre Convenience
Total
2,100
120
Envisions Beauty
1,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
196 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,100
236 Cromwell Street
300
Vacant
1,000
Anne's Book Place
Heaven And Home Gift Store
250 Russell Street South
160
Vacant
Stores
262 Russell Street South
190
600
2,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
3,500
120
Robin's Boutique And Body Art
2,200
302 Davis Street
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,800
100
7-Eleven
2,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
8,000
100
Wellington Convenience
1,800
Milton Street South
300
Vacant
Vacant
200
134,500
1000 Finch Drive
100
Mac's
1,000
140
Clothing Stores
Stores
Kid's Korner
1,300
110 East Street North
Sarnia Craft Supply
1,300
Stores
Stores
Patene Building Supply
3,900
70
80
160
Eastland Centre
Store Name
134 Ontario Street
160
East Street Plaza
Description
132 Ontario Street
Mitton Village/Area Total
Other (South of
College Park Plaza
402)
Code
Custom Plumbing
2,400
Christian Supply Centre
1,300
190
Thrift Store
2,900
300
Vacant
Vacant
4,500
120
Shoppers Drug Mart
180
Buck Or Two
7,500
Greer's Variety
2,000
11,000
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,300
100
Bun Master Bakery
3,600
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
Finch Plaza
49 Finch Drive
(blank)
Code
Description
Store Name
100
Mac's
2,000
140
Clothing Stores
Jas Uniforms
1,600
Toni's Cute Kids
1,600
160
Stores
Micro Source For Sports
1,600
300
Vacant
Vacant
4,700
190
St Vincent Du Paul
300
Vacant
Vacant (ex Community Living)
300
Vacant
Sarnia Appliance
3,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,800
180
Peter's Variety
1,600
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,400
90
Supermarkets
Food Basics
100
Milk Marc Variety
274 London Road
100
London Food Mart
1,000
190
Artopia Gallery & Framing
2,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,300
288 Ontario Street
100
Sam's Mini Mart
1,000
(blank)
40,500
190
Stores
Twice Told Tall Tales
1,700
Homeland Windows
3,300
2,600
80
300
Vacant
Vacant
2,000
AftonDrive
300
Vacant
Vacant
6,700
120
Pharmacy
4,100
300
Vacant
Vacant
3,900
Ducana Windows
Other (South of 402) Total
Lakeshore Road
3,100
33,200
London Road
9
Total
171,900
1117 Lakeshore Road
40
1,400
1130 Lakeshore Road
100
Sunripe
2,500
110
LCBO
3,400
1135 Lakeshore Road
140
Clothing Stores
Garbo's Fashion
1206 Lakeshore Road
100
Lakeshore Convenience
1302 Lakeshore Road
100
Daisy Mart
1,700
M&M Meat Shops
1,000
urbanMetrics inc.
500
1,000
Node
No.
Node
Address
2600 Lakeshore Road
Code
Description
Store Name
Supermarkets
Foodland
Fresh Pick Produce
120
Shoppers Drugmart
3,500
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,400
Home Hardware
3,600
DeSena's Variety
2,200
90
100
2684 Lakeshore Road
70
100
(blank)
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,700
Vacant
Vacant
1,500
639 Lakeshore Road
190
Stores
Wine Kitz
1,500
Huronview Nurseries Garden Centre
5,000
Wicks Variety
80
43,300
102 St Clair Street
112 Michigan Avenue
100
40
140
116 Michigan Avenue
40
128 Michigan Avenue
300
Ah Some Arts
1,500
Clothing Stores
Sharkskin
2,000
Townbridge Lightning
2,500
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
70
Rona Hardware
1,500
131 Michigan Avenue
70
Kitchen & Bath Studio
1,500
510 Michigan Avenue
100
Point Variety
1,000
Huron & Doors
1,300
520 Helena Street
11
1,000
129 Michigan Avenue
519 Helena Street
Point Edward
Total
Other (North of
402)
1,100
300
Lakeshore Road Total
Point Edward
10,300
637 Lakeshore Road
6429 Brigden Road
10
Total
40
Fabbri Tile & Carpet
692 Lite Street
110
40
LCBO
712 Lite Street
300
807 Michigan Avenue
160
Vacant
Stores
Midtown Music
1226 Murphy Road
100
Milk Marc
1801 Blackwell Road
300
Vacant
Vacant
1,000
200 Maxwell Street
120
Sarnia Pharmacy
2,000
Vacant
10,000
8,000
10,000
2,500
43,800
(blank)
1,300
210 Maxwell Street
110
Beer Store
3,000
256 Maxwell Street
100
Buck's Mini Mart
1,500
60
Northend Appliance
1,800
635 Cathcart Boulevard
urbanMetrics inc.
Node
No.
Node
Address
700 Kemsley Drive
Code
Description
Store Name
Total
100
Mac's
1,400
190
Jenny's Floral Studio
1,200
Rexall Drugstore
Supermarkets
Valu Mart
120
90
6,400
15,000
784 Rosedale Avenue
100
My Rosedale Mini Mart
1,900
940 Murphy Road
100
Jade Mini Mart
2,000
Murphy Road
300
Vacant
Vacant
Other (North of 402) Total
10,000
48,500
Grand Total
2,977,800
urbanMetrics inc.
urbanMetrics inc.
A telephone survey of Trade Area residents was carried out by Network Research under the
direction of urbanMetrics inc. The survey was undertaken during the period May to June, 2008.
A total of 610 surveys were completed with 357 residents in the Primary Zone and 253 residents
in the Secondary Zone. The survey sample was drawn from 10 sampling areas, as shown on the
following map.
The surveys were completed by Network Research, which features a CATI or computer assisted
telephone interviewing system. The CATI system allows survey data to be entered electronically
as the surveys are carried out. The survey questionnaire was designed by urbanMetrics to
include questions relating to FSR and NFSR expenditures of Trade Area residents. The survey
data was provided electronically to urbanMetrics by Network Research for coding and
tabulating utilized our SPSS software.
The survey results and a copy of the survey questionnaire have been included as follows.
urbanMetrics inc.
Qu. 1c - Supermarket Purchases (past month)
Primary Zone
Qu. 1 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Total
Qu. 1 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$780
0.8%
$55
0.1%
$835
0.5%
$6,173
6.4%
$300
0.4%
$6,473
3.8%
$585
0.6%
$190
0.3%
$775
0.5%
Food Basics - Indian Rd & Confederation St
$8,176
8.5%
$3,995
5.3%
$12,171
7.1%
Wal-Mart - Highway 402 & Modeland Rd
$5,380
5.6%
$3,775
5.0%
$9,155
5.3%
$31,740
33.1%
$9,990
13.2%
$41,730
24.3%
A & P - London Rd & Modeland Rd
$9,100
9.5%
$2,560
3.4%
$11,660
6.8%
Price Chopper - Exmouth St & Lambton Mall Rd
$6,855
7.2%
$2,330
3.1%
$9,185
5.4%
$17,405
18.2%
$7,090
9.3%
$24,495
14.3%
$8,405
8.8%
$3,901
5.1%
$12,306
7.2%
$915
$95,514
1.0%
99.7%
$845
$35,031
1.1%
46.2%
$1,760
$130,545
1.0%
76.0%
$3,230
4.3%
$3,230
1.9%
$8,195
4.8%
$60
0.0%
Downtown Grocery - Downtown
Valu-Mart - Cathcart Blvd & Colborne Rd
Davy Jones Everfresh - Indian Rd & Confederation St
Zehrs - London Rd & Murphy Rd
No Frills - Indian Rd & Exmouth St
A & P - Capel St & Exmouth St
Qu. 1
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 1 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Foodland - Lakeshore Rd
Primary Zone Subtotal
Forest
.
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
Alviston
.
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0%
$2,720
3.6%
$2,720
1.6%
Corunna
.
0.0%
$10,410
13.7%
$10,410
6.1%
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
$9,275
12.2%
$9,275
5.4%
Other Secondary Zone
Secondary Zone Subtotal
.
0.0%
0.0%
$150
$34,040
0.2%
44.9%
$150
$34,040
0.1%
19.8%
Other Ontario
.
0.0%
$6,796
9.0%
$6,796
4.0%
0.0%
$300
0.2%
100.0%
$171,681
100.0%
USA
Total
$0
$300
$95,814
0.0% .
$8,195
10.8%
$60
0.1%
0.0% .
0.3% .
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
0.0%
$75,867
0.0%
Qu. 2c - Specialty Food Store Expenditures (Past Month)
Primary Zone
Qu. 2 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Total
Qu. 2 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Downtown
$82
1.1% .
0.0%
$82
Confederation
$45
0.6% .
0.0%
$45
0.4%
30.0%
$2,690
23.8%
0.0%
$40
0.4%
2.8%
$1,046
9.2%
$783
6.9%
$1,605
Lambton Mall Area
$40
Lambton Mall
$946
Exmouth Street
London Line
.
Other Sarnia South of 402
Lakeshore Road & Brights Grove
Point Edward
20.8%
$1,085
0.5% .
12.3%
$100
0.0% .
$623
Mitton Village
8.1%
0.0% .
$160
4.4%
0.7%
0.0%
$235
3.1%
$30
0.8%
$265
2.3%
$4,085
53.0%
$475
13.1%
$4,560
40.3%
$40
$7,701
1,850
$150
0.0%
51.1%
4.1%
$40
$9,551
$150
0.4%
84.4%
1.3%
$656
18.1%
$656
5.8%
0.4%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Forest
.
0.5% .
100.0%
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0%
$50
1.4%
$50
Alviston
.
0.0%
$346
9.6%
$346
3.1%
Wyoming
.
0.0%
$50
1.4%
$50
0.4%
Corunna
.
0.0%
$80
2.2%
$80
0.7%
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
$50
1.4%
$50
0.4%
.
$1,382
0.0%
12.2%
London
.
0.0% .
Wallaceburg
.
Chatham-Kent
Strathoy
Other Sarnia North of 402
Qu. 2
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 2 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.0%
1,382
0.0% .
38.2%
0.0%
$190
5.2%
$190
1.7%
.
0.0%
$200
5.5%
$200
1.8%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Other Ontario
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
USA
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Total
$0
$7,701
0.0% .
0.0%
0.0% .
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
0.0% .
$3,622
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$11,323
100.0%
Qu. 3c - Drug Store Purchases (Past Month)
Primary Zone
Qu. 3 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$950
Downtown
Confederation
.
$1,045
Lambton Mall
$20,418
Exmouth Street
London Line
.
$870
Mitton Village
Point Edward
Qu. 3
Location
0.1%
$1,110
2.1%
0.6%
$185
0.3%
0.0%
$1,045
2.0%
15.1%
$24,203
45.2%
1.6%
0.0% .
$150
3.7% .
71.7%
0.6%
Total
Qu. 3 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$3,785
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0% .
3.1% .
0.0%
$870
0.0%
$2,948
10.3%
$770
3.1%
$3,718
6.9%
$180
0.6%
$281
1.1%
$461
0.9%
$1,940
$28,386
6.8%
99.6%
0.0%
$130
$5,276
$495
0.5%
21.1%
2.0%
$2,070
$33,662
$495
3.9%
62.9%
0.9%
$3,133
12.5%
$3,133
5.9%
.
$160
0.0% .
$35
Lambton Mall Area
3.3%
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 3 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Forest
.
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Alviston
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Wyoming
.
0.0%
$565
2.3%
$565
1.1%
0.1%
$11,985
47.9%
$12,015
22.5%
0.0%
$2,384
9.5%
$2,384
4.5%
$18,562
0.0% .
74.2%
$18,592
0.0%
34.7%
$30
Corunna
0.0% .
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Grand Bend
.
.
London
.
0.0%
$25
0.1%
$25
0.0%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0%
$940
3.8%
$940
1.8%
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0% .
Strathoy
.
0.0%
$120
0.5%
$120
0.2%
Other Ontario
.
0.0%
$100
USA
Total
$30
$70
$28,486
0.0% .
0.1%
0.0% .
0.2% .
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
$25,023
0.0%
0.4%
$100
0.2%
0.0%
$70
0.1%
100.0%
$53,509
100.0%
Qu. 4c - General Merchandise Store Purchases (Past Three Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 4 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Downtown
.
Lambton Mall Area
.
Canadian Tire - Lambton Mall
Exmouth Street
$90
0.0% .
0.0% .
Total
Qu. 4 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.2%
$90
0.1%
0.0%
$20
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0%
$26,469
66.2%
$19,805
53.6%
$46,274
60.1%
$3,640
9.1%
$1,833
5.0%
$5,473
7.1%
London Line
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Mitton Village
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Point Edward
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
$20
$30,149
21,728
$1,190
0.0%
58.8%
3.2%
$575
1.6%
$120
0.3%
0.0%
Forest
.
0.0% .
75.4%
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
Alviston
.
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0%
$60
0.2%
$60
0.1%
Corunna
.
0.0%
$150
0.4%
$150
0.2%
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
$210
0.6%
$210
0.3%
.
$0
0.0%
0.0%
$20
2,325
0.1%
6.3%
$20
$2,325
0.0%
3.0%
$5,830
Qu. 4
Location
0.0%
$20
Confederation
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 4 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$20
$51,877
$1,190
0.0%
67.4%
1.5%
$575
0.7%
$120
0.2%
0.0% .
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0%
14.6%
$8,930
24.2%
$14,760
19.2%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0%
$1,660
4.5%
$1,660
2.2%
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0%
$10
0.0%
$10
0.0%
Strathoy
.
0.0%
$1,970
5.3%
$1,970
2.6%
London
$400
1.0%
$130
0.4%
$530
0.7%
USA
$3,626
9.1%
$200
0.5%
$3,826
5.0%
Total
$40,005
100.0%
$36,953
100.0%
$76,958
100.0%
Other Ontario
urbanMetrics inc.
Qu. 5c - Department Store Purchases (Past Three Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 5 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Total
Qu. 5 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
Downtown
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Confederation
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Lambton Mall Area
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Exmouth Street
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
London Line
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Mitton Village
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Point Edward
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
$29,687
Sears - Lambton Mall
Qu. 5
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 5 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
40.0%
$9,599
20.1%
0.0%
$39,286
32.2%
Zellers - London Road Shopping Centre
$9,300
12.5%
$4,258
8.9%
$13,558
11.1%
Wal-Mart - Highway 402 & Modeland Rd
$33,506
$72,493
45.2%
97.8%
$24,355
$38,212
51.0%
80.0%
$57,861
$110,705
47.5%
90.8%
Forest
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Petrolia
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Alviston
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Corunna
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Grand Bend
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0%
$0
$175
$0
$0
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
$1,049
2.2%
$1,224
1.0%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0%
$4,750
9.9%
$4,750
3.9%
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0% .
Strathoy
.
0.0%
$2,625
5.5%
$2,625
2.2%
1.0%
London
0.0% .
0.0%
$360
0.5%
$885
1.9%
$1,245
USA
$1,100
1.5%
$250
0.5%
$1,350
1.1%
Total
$74,128
100.0%
$47,771
100.0%
$121,899
100.0%
Other Ontario
urbanMetrics inc.
Qu. 6c - Fashion Store Purchases (Past Three Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 6 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$280
Downtown
Confederation
.
Lambton Mall Area
Lambton Mall
Exmouth Street
1.1% .
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.7%
0.0%
$1,065
7.7%
$2,190
5.6%
$18,337
71.6%
$7,355
53.5%
$25,692
65.3%
$985
3.8%
$100
0.7%
$1,085
2.8%
0.0% .
0.0% .
Mitton Village
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
.
0.0%
.
$50
0.4%
0.0% .
0.0% .
$110
0.4% .
0.0%
$20,837
$200
0.0% .
81.4%
0.8% .
.
Forest
$280
4.4%
.
Total
Qu. 6 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$1,125
London Line
Point Edward
Qu. 6
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 6 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$8,570
0.0% .
62.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
$50
0.1%
$110
0.3%
$29,407
$200
0.0%
74.7%
0.5%
$200
0.5%
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Alviston
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Corunna
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
$200
1.5%
$200
0.5%
.
0.0% .
0.8%
$400
0.0% .
2.9%
$600
0.0%
1.5%
$200
$650
London
$10
Wallaceburg
2.5%
0.0% .
$200
$2,700
1.5%
19.6%
$3,350
8.5%
0.0%
$10
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Strathoy
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
$735
0.0%
0.0% .
Chatham-Kent
Other Ontario
0.0%
2.9%
$380
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
$1,115
2.8%
USA
$3,180
12.4%
$1,710
12.4%
$4,890
12.4%
Total
$25,612
100.0%
$13,760
100.0%
$39,372
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
Qu. 7c - Specialty Store Purchases (Past Three Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 7 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$260
Downtown
Confederation
.
Lambton Mall Area
Lambton Mall
Exmouth Street
London Line
1.1%
Total
Qu. 7 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$410
1.0%
0.0% .
0.0%
$15,578
56.2%
$8,158
61.2%
$23,736
57.8%
$5,462
19.7%
$3,809
28.6%
$9,271
22.6%
$2,615
9.4%
$150
1.1%
$2,765
6.7%
0.0% .
0.0% .
$300
1.1% .
0.0%
$300
0.7%
$250
$250
0.6%
0.9% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Point Edward
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
$743
$25,208
0.0%
.
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
Watford
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Alviston
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Corunna
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
.
$1,910
2.8%
94.8%
0.0% .
0.0%
Forest
$0
$375
$12,642
0.0%
2.7%
91.0%
0.0% .
Qu. 7
Location
$150
0.0% .
.
Mitton Village
0.9%
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 7 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$1,118
$37,850
2.7%
92.2%
0.0%
$40
0.1%
0.0% .
$40
$75
0.3%
0.6%
0.0% .
0.0%
$115
0.0% .
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
$75
0.2%
$115
0.0%
0.3%
6.9%
$200
1.5%
$2,110
5.1%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0%
$40
0.3%
$40
0.1%
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0% .
Strathoy
.
0.0%
$100
0.7%
$100
0.2%
1.2%
London
0.0% .
0.0%
Other Ontario
$300
1.1%
$190
1.4%
$490
USA
$280
1.0%
$50
0.4%
$330
0.8%
$27,698
100.0%
$13,337
100.0%
$41,035
100.0%
Total
urbanMetrics inc.
Qu. 8c - Outdoor Home Supplies Store Purchases (Past Three Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 8 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
.
Downtown
0.0% .
Total
Qu. 8 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.0% .
0.0%
$7,045
9.8%
$4,590
7.7%
$11,635
8.8%
Home Depot & Home Hardware Lambton Mall Area
$49,660
68.9%
$37,438
62.9%
$87,098
66.2%
Home Hardware - Exmouth Street
$1,506
2.1% .
0.0%
$1,506
1.1%
London Line
$4,123
5.7%
$1,785
3.0%
$5,908
4.5%
1.1% .
0.0%
$780
0.6%
0.0% .
0.0% .
$353
0.3%
Rona - Indian Rd & Confederation St
$780
Home Hardware - Mitton Village
.
Home Hardware - Brights Grove
Point Edward
$225
0.3%
$1,352
$64,691
.
Qu. 8
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 8 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.0%
$128
0.2%
1.9%
89.8%
$100
$44,041
0.2%
74.0%
$1,452
$108,732
1.1%
82.7%
$1,200
2.0%
$1,200
0.9%
1.3%
$780
0.6%
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Forest
.
0.0%
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
$780
Watford
.
0.0%
$250
0.4%
$250
0.2%
Alviston
.
0.0%
$50
0.1%
$50
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0%
$930
1.6%
$930
0.7%
Corunna
.
0.0%
$770
1.3%
$770
0.6%
Grand Bend
.
0.0%
$2,390
4.0%
$2,390
1.8%
8.1%
8.1%
$675
$7,045
1.1%
11.8%
$6,480
$12,850
4.9%
9.8%
$5,805
$5,805
0.0% .
0.0%
London
.
0.0%
$100
0.2%
$100
0.1%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0%
$5,635
9.5%
$5,635
4.3%
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Strathoy
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
Other Ontario
.
0.0%
USA
Total
$1,558
$72,054
urbanMetrics inc.
0.0%
$2,660
4.5%
0.0%
$1,558
1.2%
$59,481
100.0%
$131,535
100.0%
2.2% .
100.0%
0.0%
$2,660
2.0%
Qu. 9c - Home Furnishing Store Purchases (Past Six Months)
Primary Zone
Qu. 9 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$4,050
Downtown
Confederation
.
4.6% .
0.0%
0.0% .
0.0% .
Total
Qu. 9 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
$4,050
3.1%
0.0%
Lambton Mall Area
$52,580
59.9%
$25,470
60.7%
$78,050
60.2%
Lambton Mall
$22,910
26.1%
$5,043
12.0%
$27,953
21.6%
Exmouth Street
London Line
$420
0.5% .
0.0%
$420
0.3%
$2,100
2.4% .
0.0%
$2,100
1.6%
Mitton Village
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
$200
0.2% .
0.0%
$82,260
Point Edward
Qu. 9
Location
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Qu. 9 Expenditure
Column
Sum
Sum %
0.0%
$200
0.2%
0.0% .
72.7% $112,773
0.0% .
0.0%
87.0%
0.0%
.
Forest
.
0.0% .
93.8%
0.0% .
Oil Springs
.
0.0% .
Petrolia
.
0.0%
$1,000
2.4%
$1,000
0.8%
Watford
.
0.0%
$300
0.7%
$300
0.2%
Alviston
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Wyoming
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Corunna
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
Grand Bend
.
0.0% .
0.0% .
0.0%
London
$30,513
0.0% .
0.0%
$3,000
$3,000
3.4%
3.4%
$4,850
$6,150
11.6%
14.7%
$7,850
$9,150
6.1%
7.1%
$850
1.0%
$1,600
3.8%
$2,450
1.9%
$800
0.6%
Wallaceburg
.
0.0% .
Chatham-Kent
.
0.0%
$800
Strathoy
.
0.0%
$2,300
5.5%
$2,300
1.8%
1.1%
$600
1.4%
$1,600
1.2%
0.0%
$610
0.5%
$41,963
100.0%
$129,683
100.0%
Other Ontario
USA
Total
$1,000
$610
$87,720
0.0% .
0.7% .
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
1.9%
0.0%
Non-Food Store Retail Expenditure Summary
Categories
Location
Primary Zone Residents
Expenditure
%
Secondary Zone Residents
Expenditure
%
3c Pharmacy & Drug Store*
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$85,158.00
$90.00
$210.00
$85,458.00
99.6%
0.1%
0.2%
100.0%
$15,828.00
$55,686.00
$3,555.00
$75,069.00
21.1%
74.2%
4.7%
100.0%
4c General Merchandise
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$30,149.00
$0.00
$9,856.00
$40,005.00
75.4%
0.0%
24.6%
100.0%
$21,728.00
$2,325.00
$12,900.00
$36,953.00
58.8%
6.3%
34.9%
100.0%
5c Department Store
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$72,493.00
$0.00
$1,635.00
$74,128.00
97.8%
0.0%
2.2%
100.0%
$38,212.00
$0.00
$9,559.00
$47,771.00
80.0%
0.0%
20.0%
100.0%
6c Fashion
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$20,837.00
$200.00
$4,575.00
$25,612.00
81.4%
0.8%
17.9%
100.0%
$8,570.00
$400.00
$4,790.00
$13,760.00
62.3%
2.9%
34.8%
100.0%
7c Miscellaneous
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$25,208.00
$0.00
$2,490.00
$27,698.00
91.0%
0.0%
9.0%
100.0%
$12,642.00
$115.00
$580.00
$13,337.00
94.8%
0.9%
4.3%
100.0%
8c Building and Outdoor Home
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$64,691.00
$5,805.00
$1,558.00
$72,054.00
89.8%
8.1%
2.2%
100.0%
$44,041.00
$7,045.00
$8,395.00
$59,481.00
74.0%
11.8%
14.1%
100.0%
9c Home Furnishings*
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$41,130.00
$1,500.00
$1,230.00
$43,860.00
93.8%
3.4%
2.8%
100.0%
$15,256.50
$3,075.00
$2,650.00
$20,981.50
72.7%
14.7%
12.6%
100.0%
PZ Stores
SZ Stores
Other Area
TOTAL
$339,666.00
$7,595.00
$21,554.00
$368,815.00
92.1%
2.1%
5.8%
100.0%
$156,277.50
$68,646.00
$42,429.00
$267,352.50
58.5%
25.7%
15.9%
100.0%
Total NFSR
*Adjusted to 3 months
urbanMetrics inc.
Distribution of Survey Respondents NFSR Expenditures Based on Survey
Pharmacy & Drug Store
General Merchandise
Department Store
Clothing & Accessories
Miscellaneous
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies
Home Furnishings
TOTAL NFSR
Primary Zone
Residents
23.2%
10.8%
20.1%
6.9%
7.5%
19.5%
11.9%
100.0%
Secondary
Zone
Residents
28.1%
13.8%
17.9%
5.1%
5.0%
22.2%
7.8%
100.0%
Ontario
Average
2007
17.0%
79.9%
82.1%
85.3%
Total Non-Department Store NFSR
28.0%
14.4%
11.2%
13.0%
16.3%
100.0%
*As of 2004, department store sales are supressed in Ontario. In 2004, the department store share of total
general merchandise in Ontario was 52.5%. Therefore, in 2007, the department store share of TOTAL NFSR in
the Province has been estimated by urbanMetrics at 14.7% (52.5% of 27.5%)
Qu. 10 - Number of People in Household
Sum
Primary Zone
Row Sum
%
846
Q10
ZONE
Secondary Zone
Row Sum
Sum
%
Mean
Mean
56.4%
2
654
43.6%
Total
Row Sum
%
Sum
3
1,500
100.0%
Qu. 11 - Age Group
Primary Zone
Count
Col %
Secondary Zone
Count
Col %
Count
Total
Col %
Under 25
22
6.2%
6
2.4%
28
4.6%
25 – 34
28
7.8%
16
6.3%
44
7.2%
35 – 44
62
17.4%
34
13.4%
96
15.7%
45 – 54
64
17.9%
57
22.5%
121
19.8%
55 – 64
74
20.7%
56
22.1%
130
21.3%
65 and
over
98
27.5%
76
30.0%
174
28.5%
Refused
Total
9
2.5%
8
3.2%
17
2.8%
357
100.0%
253
100.0%
610
100.0%
Qu. 12 - Gender of Primary Shopper
Primary Zone
Count
Col %
Female Primary
Shopper
Male Primary
Shopper
Total
Secondary Zone
Count
Col %
Count
Total
Col %
268
75.1%
189
74.7%
457
74.9%
89
24.9%
64
25.3%
153
25.1%
357
100.0%
253
100.0%
610
100.0%
urbanMetrics inc.
Mean
2
SURVEY ID
SARNIA TELEPHONE CONSUMER SURVEY
For Office Use
Interviewer:
_______________________
Verified by:
________________
Date of Interview: ___________________
Good ________________. My name is ____________________ of Network Research Inc., a market research company. We are conducting a survey of people's shopping habits and I would like
to ask you a few questions. I assure you we are not selling anything.
A.
B.
Interviewer, Please watch Quota - 75% female / 25% male
Are you over the age of 19 and the primary shopper in your home?
YES:
GO TO QUESTION B.
NO:
TASK FOR SOMEONE WHO IS AND RE-INTRODUCE.
In the last THREE MONTHS, have you done any shopping whatsoever?
YES: GO TO QUESTION C.
NO:
C.
TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY.
INTERVIEWER: Record the appropriate SAMPLING AREA.
Interviewer, Please watch Quota
SAMPLING AREA
Circle
Area
1
N7V
Point Edwards Only
2
N7S
City of Sarnia Only
3
N7T
City of Sarnia Only
4
N7X
City of Sarnia Only
5
N7W
6
2-1
see map - outside of SARNIA and Point Edwards
7
2-2
8
2-3
9
2-4
10
2-5
City of Sarnia Only
600 Surveys in Total
INTERVIEWER: Please record data below and continue with survey
Phone Number:
Time Started:
Postal Code [6 digits]
am / pm
Time Finished:
INTERVIEWER: Please ensure that information is complete, then proceed to Question 1a.
INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS OVER THE PAST MONTH
urbanMetrics inc.
am / pm
1 a)
In the past MONTH, have you shopped at a SUPERMARKET?
Yes ........ 1
[GO TO QUESTION
1 b)]
No
[SKIP TO QUESTION
2 a)]
........ 2
1 b)
What is the name of the store and where is it located?
1 c)
About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store?
ASK THESE QUESTIONS TOGETHER
1 b)
Name of Store
1 b)
Location Shopping Centre/Street Location/Community
Downtown Grocery
Downtown
15
$
.00
Davy Jones Everfresh
Indian Rd & Confederation St
21
$
.00
Food Basics
Indian Rd & Confederation St
22
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Highway 402 & Modeland Rd (Lambton Mall and Area)
31
$
.00
Zehrs
London Rd & Murphy Rd (Lambton Mall and Area)
32
$
.00
A&P
London Rd & Modeland Rd (Lambton Mall and Area)
33
$
.00
Price Chopper
Exmouth St & Lambton Mall Rd (Lambton Mall and Area)
34
$
.00
No Frills
Indian Rd & Exmouth St
51
$
.00
A&P
Capel St & Exmouth St
52
$
.00
Foodland
Lakeshore Road (Brights Grove)
91
$
.00
Cathcart Blvd & Colborne Rd
16
$
.00
$
.00
Valu-Mart
OTHER: SPECIFY
1 d)
1 c)
Amount Spent
Code
Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKETS IN THE PAST MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 1b)/1c) as OFTEN AS NECESSARY.
2 a)
In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at any other grocery stores or other specialty food stores, such as bakeries, delis, meat shops, convenience food stores, candy shops or fruit
markets?
Circle
Yes ….
1
[GO TO QUESTION
2 b)]
No…..
2
[SKIP TO QUESTION
3 a)]
2 b)
2 c)
About how much did you spend during the PAST MONTH at this store in TOTAL?
2 b)
Name of Store
2 b)
Location
Shopping Centre/Street Location/Community
SPECIFY
2 e)
2 c)
Amount Spent in Total
Code
See List
Have you shopped at any other grocery stores or specialty food stores in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 2b) to 2d) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO 3 a)
urbanMetrics inc.
2 d)
Amount Spent on Food Items
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
3 a)
In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at a pharmacy, drug store, cosmetic, optical goods, health supplement store?
Circle
Yes ….
1
[GO TO QUESTION
3 b)]
No…..
2
[SKIP TO QUESTION
4 a)]
3 b)
3 c)
About how much did you spend during the PAST MONTH at this store in TOTAL?
3 a)
Name of Store
3 b)
Location
SPECIFY
3 d)
3 c)
Code
See List
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other pharmacy, drug store, cosmetic, optical goods, health supplement store in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 3b) to 3c) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO 4 a)
INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS
4 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following general merchandise stores?
(i)
A warehouse membership club; such as Costco or Sam's Club?
Yes 1
[GO TO
4 b} No
2
(ii)
A Canadian Tire?
Yes 1
[GO TO
4 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
[SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
A general store, variety or dollar store?
Yes 1
[GO TO
4 b} No
2
GO TO
5 a)
FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER
4 b)
4 c)
About how much did you spend during the PAST THREE MONTHS at this store in TOTAL?
4 b)
Name of Store
Canadian Tire
4 b)
Location
Lambton Mall
4
SPECIFY
4 d)
Have you shopped at any other general merchandise store in the past THREE MONTHS?
urbanMetrics inc.
4 c)
Code
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
5 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following DEPARTMENT stores?
(i)
Sears?
Yes 1
[GO TO
5 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
Zellers?
Yes 1
[GO TO
5 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
(iii)
Wal-mart?
Yes 1
[GO TO
5 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (iii)]
(iv)
The Bay?
Yes 1
[GO TO
5 b} No
2
GO TO
[EXCLUDING SEARS WHOLE HOME AND FURNITURE STORES]
6 a)
5 b)
5 c)
About how much did you spend during the PAST THREE MONTHS at this store in TOTAL?
CHAIN - 1 for Sears, 2 for Zellers, 3 for Wal-Mart, 4 for Bay
5 b)
Name of Store
5 d)
5 b)
Location
(Chain/Location)
Code
5 c)
Sears
Lambton Mall
14
$
.00
Zellers
London Road Shopping Centre
23
$
.00
Wal-mart
Highway 402 & Modeland Rd (Lambton Mall and Area)
33
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other department store in the past THREE MONTHS?
6 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following FASHION or ACCESSORY stores?
Circle
(i)
Circle
A Clothing store?
Yes 1
[GO TO
6 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A shoe store?
Yes 1
[GO TO
6 b} No
2
[SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
A lugguge, leather goods, clothing accessory or jewellery store?
Yes 1
[GO TO
6 b} No
2
GO TO
7 a)
6 b)
6 c)
About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store?
6 b)
Name of Store
6 b)
Location Shopping Centre/Street Location/Community
SPECIFY
6 d)
6 c)
Amount Spent
Code
See List
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other FASHION OR ACCESSORY STORE in the past THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION
6 b) to
6 c) above as often as necessary.
Repeat this sequence for all
urbanMetrics inc.
6 a) questions, (i) to (iii).
7 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i) An office supply, stationery, book or card shop?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
(ii) A sporting goods, hobby, toy, game, art or artist supply store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii) A sewing, needlework or fabric store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv) A musical instrument, music, CD or tape store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (v)]
(v) A florist, pet, pet supply or swimming pool accessory store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (vi)]
(vi) A gift, novelty, souvenir or collectors item store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 Go to
8 a)
7 b)
7 c)
7 b)
Name of Store
7 b)
Location
SEE CODE LIST
SPECIFY
7 d)
See List
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other of these SPECIALTY stores in the past THREE MONTHS?
8 a)
7 c)
Amount Spent
Code
7 b) to
7 a) questions, (i) to (vii).
In just the past THREE MONTHS Have you shopped at any of the following BUILDING and OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES stores ?
Yes ........ 1
[GO TO QUESTION
8 b)]
No
[SKIP TO QUESTION
9 a)]
........ 2
(i) A home improvement centre or hardware store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
(ii) A paint and wallpaper store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii) Other building material and home supply stores, including plumbing and electrical supply stores?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv) A nursery or garden centre?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 GO TO
8 b)
8 c)
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
9 a)
8 b)
Name of Store
8 b)
Location
Home Depot
Lambton Mall and Area
3
$
.00
Rona
Indian Rd & Conferderation St
2
$
.00
Home Hardware
Lambton Mall and Area
3
$
.00
Home Hardware
Exmouth Street
5
$
.00
Home Hardware
Mitton Village and Area
7
$
.00
Home Hardware
Lakeshore Road (Brights Grove)
$
.00
9
9
OTHER: SPECIFY
8 d)
8 c)
Amount Spent
Code
Have you shopped at any other building and outdoor home supply store in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
8 b) to
urbanMetrics inc.
8 a) questions, (i) to (iv).
9 a)
In just the past SIX MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following HOME FURNISHINGS stores?
Circle
Circle
(i) A furniture store, applicance store, TV or electronics store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9
b)
No
(ii) A camera, photographic supply, or computer and software store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii) A lighting, floor covering, or window covering store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv) A kitchen, tableware, bedding, linen or picture frame and print store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9
b)
No
2 GO TO
# a)
9 b)
9 c)
9 b)
Name of Store
9 b)
Location
SPECIFY
9 d)
See List
9 b) to
How many persons live in your household?
ENTER NO.
11 )
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other HOME FURNISHING STORE in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
10 )
9 c)
Amount Spent
Code
In which of the following age groups are you?
[READ LIST]
CIRCLE
Under 25
1
25-34
2
35-44
3
45-54
4
55-64
5
65 and over
6
REFUSED [DO NOT READ]
7
INTERVIEW COMPLETED WITH:
PLEASE RECORD
Male primary shopper
1
Female primary shopper
2
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME AND CO-OPERATION
urbanMetrics inc.
9 a) questions, (i) to (iv).
Appendix C: Background Data and Definition of Terms
urbanMetrics inc.
Appendix C: Definition of Terms and Background Data
Gross Leasable Area (GLA)
Gross leasable area (GLA) is the total retail floor area designed for tenant occupancy and
exclusive use, including basements, upper floors and mezzanines. It is expressed in square feet,
and measured from the centre line of joint partitions and from outside wall faces. GLA is the
area on which tenants pay rent, and which produces income for a tenant. Since it lends itself
readily to measurement and comparison, GLA has been adopted by the shopping centre
industry as its standard for statistical comparison.
Per Capita Income
Per capita income represents average total personal income before tax, as defined by
Statistics Canada. The Trade Area income indices to the Province are based on the results of
the 2001 Census of Canada, the most recent Census information available.
Per Capita NFSR Expenditures and Distribution of Expenditures
Figure C-1 details our calculations for 2006 per capita NFSR expenditures for the Province of
Ontario based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade data. Figure C-2 summarizes the distribution of
NFSR expenditures by major store type for the Province.
Trade Area Per Capita Expenditures
Per Capita expenditures in this report for Trade Area residents have been calculated based on
a regression equations utilizing Statistics Canada, Household Expenditure data (see Figure C-3).
Expenditure Potential
Expenditure potential is the total annual expenditures made by Trade Area residents. This
includes purchases made both inside and outside of the Trade Area. It is calculated by
multiplying the average per capita expenditure in each store category by the total population
of a defined area.
urbanMetrics inc.
Real Growth
Real growth refers to the amount that sales volumes or expenditures would increase in future
years with inflation eliminated. Therefore, references to the Canadian dollar, dealing with both
the present and future period, reflect its 2006 value in this report. For the purposes of our study,
a real growth of 1.5% per year has been utilized for NFSR and 0.5% for FSR (see Figures C-4 and
C-5 for historic).
Retail/Service Space Classification
A detailed listing of our retail space classification according to the NAICS has been included in
Figure C-6.
Benchmarks
In our report, typical industry benchmarks refers to average sales per square foot levels based
on our market knowledge and published data from Statistics Canada. Figure C-7 summarizes
average sales per square foot levels by NAICS category for chain stores in Canada (fiscal year
2005).
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-1
ONTARIO - RETAIL TRADE (PUBLICATION 63-005) - FSR (FOOD STORE) AND NFSR (NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL) PER CAPITA
($Thousands)
QUARTER
YEAR
FOOD - Supermarkets and Grocery [090]
FOOD - Convenience and specialty food stores [100]
NFSR - Furniture stores [030]
NFSR - Home furnishings stores [040]
NFSR - Computer and software stores [050]
NFSR - Home electronics and appliance stores [060]
NFSR - Home centres and hardware stores [070]
NFSR - Specialized building materials and garden stores [080]
NFSR - Pharmacies and personal care stores [120]
NFSR - Clothing stores [140]
NFSR - Shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores [150]
NFSR - Department stores [170] * suppressed as of 4th quarter 2005
NFSR NFSR NFSR -
Other general merchandise stores [180]
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores [160]
Miscellaneous store retailers [190]
1
2007
2
2007
3
2007
4
2007
5,129,800
5,712,000
5,616,500
5,729,000
694,800
854,700
878,700
858,000
771,400
853,000
959,800
945,200
512,200
569,500
594,700
717,500
121,600
96,500
97,000
128,700
912,300
938,700
1,091,700
1,494,400
1,254,900
2,055,900
1,911,700
1,668,300
305,300
506,300
505,100
395,500
2,681,900
2,770,900
2,768,300
3,059,100
1,375,900
1,780,700
1,713,000
2,346,200
424,800
563,100
575,300
739,000
1,826,900
2,340,550
2,243,950
2,864,650
1,826,900
2,340,550
2,243,950
2,864,650
800,400
828,600
911,400
1,196,200
845,000
1,016,600
1,044,200
1,192,200
63-005-January 2008
TOTAL ESTIMATED FSR SALES, ONTARIO
POPULATION (July 1st Estimate)
PER CAPITA FSR SALES
63-005-January 2008
63-005-January 2008
ANNUALIZED
TOTAL**
$22,187,300
$3,286,200
$3,529,400
$2,393,900
$443,800
$4,437,100
$6,890,800
$1,712,200
$11,280,200
$7,215,800
$2,302,200
$9,276,050
$9,276,050
$3,736,600
$4,098,000
63-005-January 2008
Catalogue no. 91-002, Oct-Dec 2007, Preliminary
TOTAL NFSR STORE SALES, ONTARIO
Less Miscellaneous Store Retailers - Non- NFSR Portion @ ***
ADJUSTED TOTAL NFSR SALES, ONTARIO
POPULATION (July 1st Estimate)
PER CAPITA NFSR STORE SALES
10%
Catalogue no. 91-002, Oct-Dec 2007, Preliminary
$25,473,500
12,803,861
$1,990
$66,592,100
$409,800
$66,182,300
12,803,861
$5,169
$120
PER CAPITA AUTOMOTIVE - TBA
* Not adjusted for estimated Non-NFSR portion.
** For part year data, annualized totals calculated by applying average indices of quarters for the past three years as a % of total, to current year partial sales.
*** urbanMetrics estimate. Excluded stores include: Mobile Home Dealers and Tomb Stone Dealers.
urbanMetrics inc.
Per
Capita
$1,733
$257
$276
$187
$35
$347
$538
$134
$881
$564
$180
$724
$724
$292
$320 *
Figure C-2
Ontario, NFSR Expenditure
Distribution
(based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data)
100%
90%
11.4%
11.3%
11.1%
11.2%
29.2%
29.1%
28.8%
28.0%
14.6%
14.3%
14.5%
14.4%
15.8%
16.3%
16.6%
17.0%
12.8%
13.1%
13.1%
13.0%
16.1%
15.9%
15.8%
16.3%
2004
2005
2006
2007
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Other NFSR
General Merchandise
Clothing and Accessories Stores
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores
Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-3
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
INCOME/EXPENDITURE REGRESSION EQUATIONS, 2006
(n)
Average Per Capita
Income of Income Quintile
1
2
3
4
5
All classes
$10,068
$16,554
$22,196
$27,492
$48,575
$28,290
(x)
(y1)
(y2)
Income
FSR
NFSR
35.6
58.5
78.5
97.2
171.7
100.0
91.4
98.3
96.0
97.4
109.6
100.0
65.0
71.0
89.2
98.3
138.3
100.0
REGRESSION EQUATIONS:
where x=income index (independent variable) and y = dependent variable (expenditure index for
urbanMetrics inc.
NFSR
Food
y = 44 + 0.56 (x), where x is the income index
y = 88 + 0.12 (x), where x is the income index
1) Based on Statistics Canada, Detailed Average Household Expenditure by Household Income Quintile, Ontario, 2005.
Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2006
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-4
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES
Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Per Capita Food
Consumer Price
Store Expenditures Index (1991 Base
(1
Year) (2
$1,422
$1,412
$1,439
$1,471
$1,481
$1,419
$1,484
$1,538
$1,531
$1,577
$1,579
$1,652
$1,744
$1,873
$1,917
$1,928
$1,990
Per Capita
Expenditures
(Constant $)
Annual Real
Growth
$1,422
$1,455
$1,429
$1,474
$1,434
$1,367
$1,430
$1,464
$1,433
$1,457
$1,390
$1,410
$1,469
$1,552
$1,541
$1,518
$1,539
2.3%
-1.8%
3.2%
-2.7%
-4.7%
4.6%
2.4%
-2.1%
1.7%
-4.6%
1.5%
4.2%
5.7%
-0.7%
-1.5%
1.4%
100.0
97.0
100.7
99.7
103.3
103.8
103.8
105.1
106.8
108.2
113.6
117.2
118.7
120.7
124.4
127.0
129.3
Average Annual Real Growth 1991 to 2007
Average Annual - 2000 to 2007
0.5%
0.8%
1)
Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade , Publication 63-005 (NAICS).
2)
Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food Purchased in Stores (Cansim
Matrix P106002) .
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-5
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN NFSR STORE EXPENDITURES
Year
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Per Capita NFSR
Expenditures (1
Consumer Price Index
(1991 Base Year) (2
Per Capita
Expenditures
(Constant $)
Annual Real
Growth
$2,855
$2,908
$2,964
$3,129
$3,161
$3,158
$3,457
$3,749
$3,986
$4,087
$4,159
$4,357
$4,508
$4,667
$4,772
$4,992
$5,169
100.0
101.5
103.0
103.2
105.6
107.3
109.7
111.2
113.0
115.0
117.6
120.5
123.7
125.4
126.9
128.5
130.8
$2,855
$2,866
$2,877
$3,032
$2,992
$2,943
$3,150
$3,371
$3,528
$3,553
$3,537
$3,616
$3,646
$3,721
$3,759
$3,886
$3,950
0.4%
0.4%
5.4%
-1.3%
-1.6%
7.1%
7.0%
4.7%
0.7%
-0.5%
2.2%
0.8%
2.1%
1.0%
3.4%
1.7%
Average Annual Real Growth 1991 to 2007
Average Annual, 2000 to 2007
2.1%
1.5%
1)
Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade , Publication 63-005 (NAICS).
Excludes Automotive - TBA.
2)
Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Items Excluding Food & Energy (Cansim Matrix P106127).
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-6
urbanMetrics inc.
RETAIL/SERVICE STORE CLASSIFICATION (BASED ON NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION (NAICS)
Trade Group
NAICS
Description
FOOD
90
Supermarkets
44511
100
Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores
44512
44521
44522
44523
44529
Convenience Stores
Meat Markets
Fish and Seafood Markets
Fruit and Vegetable Markets
Other Specialty Food Stores, including Baked Goods Stores, & Confectionary & Nut
BEVERAGE STORES
110
44531
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)
Automotive
20
Used and Recreational Motor Vehicle and Parks Dealers (Tires, Batteries, Automotive Accessories component)
44131
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores
44132
Tire Dealers
Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores
30
Furniture Stores
44211
40
44221
Floor Covering Stores
44229
Other Home Furnishings Stores (e.g. window treatments, kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens, brooms and brushes,
lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames).
50
44312
60
44311
Appliance, Television and other Electronics Stores
44313
Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores
Furniture Stores
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores
70
44411
Home Centres
44413
Hardware Stores
80
Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores
44412
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
44419
Other Building Material Dealers
Aluminum doors and screens, retail
Brick and tile dealers, retail
Cabinets, kitchen (to be installed), retail
Concrete and cinder block dealers, retail
Electrical supplies stores selling primarily to other business but also selling to household consumers
Electrical supplies, retail
Fencing dealers, retail
Garage doors, retail (wood)
Glass stores, retail
Lumber and planing mill product dealers, retail
Plumbing supplies stores selling primarily to other businesses but also selling to household consumers
Plumbing supplies, retail
Prefabricated house and building dealers, retail
Retailers of ceramic floor and wall tiles
Roofing material dealers, retail
Sales of aluminum doors and installation
Tile and brick dealers, retail
44421
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores
44422
Nursery Stores and Garden Centres
120
44611
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
44612
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores
44613
Optical Goods Stores
44619
Other Health and Personal Care Stores (includes stores retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin
supplements, hearing aids, and medical equipment and supplies)
urbanMetrics inc.
urbanMetrics inc.
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)
Clothing and Accessories Stores
140
150
Clothing Stores
44811
44812
44813
44814
44819
(Continued)
Men's Clothing Stores
Women's Clothing Stores
Children's and Infant's Clothing Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Other Clothing Stores
Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores
44815
Clothing Accessories Stores
44821
Shoe Stores
44831
Jewellery Stores
44832
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores
General Merchandise Stores
170
Department Stores
45211
180
45291
Warehouse Clubs and Superstores
45299
All Other General Merchandise Stores:
452991
Home & Auto (i.e. Canadian Tire)
452999
Other General Merchandise Stores (e.g. general stores, variety stores, "dollar" stores)
Department Stores
Miscellaneous Retailers
160
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores
45111
Sporting Goods Stores
45112
Hobby, Toy and Game Stores
45113
Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores
45114
Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores
45121
Book Stores and News Dealers
45122
Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores
190
Miscellaneous Store
45311
45321
45322
45331
45391
45392
45399
453991
453992
453993
453994
453995
453996
Florists
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores
Used Merchandise Stores
Pet and Pet Supplies Stores
Art Dealers
All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers:
Tobacco & Tobacco supplies
Artist Supplies
Collectors items (cards, stamps etc.)
Beer & Wine Making
Swimming Pool Accessories
Religious Goods and Accessories
urbanMetrics inc.
urbanMetrics inc.
SERVICES
200
Consumer Services Rental
5322
5323
210
Finance and Insurance
52211
52213
220
Banks
Credit Unions
Insurance and Real Estate
52421
53121
230
Consumer Goods Rental (including formal wear, costume, video, tape & disc rental)
General Rental Centres (including tools, party rental)
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages
Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
5411
5412
5413
5414
5415
5416
5417
5418
54191
54192
54194
54199
Legal Services
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping and Payroll Services
Architectural, Engineering and Related Services
Specialized Design Services
Computer Systems Design and Related Services
Management, Scientific and Technical Consulting Services
Scientific Research and Development Services
Advertising and Related Services
Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling
Photographic Services
Veterinary Services
All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
240
Selected Office Administrative Services
241
5613
56143
56144
56145
56151
250
Employment Services
Business Service Centres (eg. printing, copying, mail centres)
Collection Agencies
Credit Bureaus
Travel Agencies
Health Care Services
6211
6212
6213
6214
6215
Offices of Physicians
Offices of Dentists
Offices of Other Health Practitioners
Out-Patient Care Centres (e.g. Family Planning, Community Health)
Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories
Entertainment
260
261
71312
262
71394
Amusement Arcades
Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres
263
71399
All other Amusement and Recreation Industries (includes billards parlours)
264
51213
Motion Picture and Video Exhibition (includes cinemas)
270
271
272
273
Food Services and Drinking Places
280
281
7221
7222
7224
Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance
8111
Automotive Repair & Maintenance (includes lubrication, diagnostic centre, tire repair, undercoating, car washes etc.)
8114
Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance (including appliance repair, reupholstery & furniture repair, shoe
repair, key duplication etc.)
282
290
Personal Care Services
8121
8123
8129
300
Full-Service Restaurants
Limited-Service Eating Places
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
Personal Care Services (including hair, beauty, tanning salon, weight reduction centres, electrolysis, estheticians etc.)
Dry Cleaning and Laundry Services
Other Personal Services (e.g. pet care (except Veterinary), Photo Finishing)
VACANT
9999
VACANT RETAIL/SERVICE SPACE
urbanMetrics inc.
Figure C-7
Canada, 2005 Sales/Sq.Ft., NFSR Chain Retailers
(Source: Statistics Canada)
Department Stores & Other General Merchandise Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores
Shoe, Jewellery and Luggage Stores
Clothing Stores
Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores
Furniture stores
$-
$ 100
$ 200
$ 300
urbanMetrics inc.
$ 400
$ 500
$ 600
$ 700
$ 800
$ 900
$ 1,000

urbanMetrics inc.

Transcription

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