"Tropical Cyclones and the Media" "Tropical Cyclones and the Media"

"Tropical Cyclones and the
Media"
Dr.
Dr. José
José Rubiera
Rubiera
Director
Director National
National Forecasting
Forecasting Center
Center
Instituto
Instituto de
de Meteorología
Meteorología Cuba
Cuba
Weather
Weather Presenter
Presenter in
in Cuban
Cuban TV
TV
First
First World
World Conference
Conference on
on Broadcast
Broadcast Meteorology
Meteorology
Universal
Universal Forum
Forum of
of Cultures
Cultures –– Barcelona
Barcelona 2004
2004
Barcelona,
Barcelona, Spain,
Spain, June
June 33 –– 5,
5, 2004
2004
Benet (Benito) Viñes and Martorell (born in
Poboleda, Catalonia, 1837 – passed away in
Havana, Cuba, 1893), a Jesuit priest that just before
his death published the famous Viñes’ Laws for the
movement of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean,
almost mandatory to the hurricane forecasters in all
over the world until late 1950’s. Those laws
represent an unprecedented testimony of how the
Catalonian-Cuban scientist and universal
meteorologist could seek the secrets of Nature to
give them to humanity. Father Viñes set a landmark
in the history of Meteorology by giving a tridimensional view of tropical cyclone; most advanced
for his times, for the tri-dimentional study of
meteorological systems would not be obtained until
several decades into the XX Century.
Benet (Benito) Viñes is, without
any doubt, the Catalonian
meteorologist who has made
the most remarkable
international contribution to the
meteorological science. The
father of cyclones,
nevertheless, is almost
unknown, maybe because he
developed his meteorological
tasks and his research at the
Belen College Observatory in
Havana. He died in Havana,
where he rests, where he is
remembered and admired as
one of the greatest Cubans.
And he certainly is one of them
"Tropical Cyclones and the
Media"
Dr.
Dr. José
José Rubiera
Rubiera
Director
Director National
National Forecasting
Forecasting Center
Center
Instituto
Instituto de
de Meteorología
Meteorología Cuba
Cuba
Weather
Weather Presenter
Presenter in
in Cuban
Cuban TV
TV
First
First World
World Conference
Conference on
on Broadcast
Broadcast Meteorology
Meteorology
Universal
Universal Forum
Forum of
of Cultures
Cultures –– Barcelona
Barcelona 2004
2004
Barcelona,
Barcelona, Spain,
Spain, June
June 33 –– 5,
5, 2004
2004
TOPICS
• The increasing problem of Tropical
Cyclones
• Experiences of Dealing with Tropical
Cyclones in the Media
• Hurricane Michelle 2001: A Case study
• Conclusions
?
DEATHS
DEATHS AND
AND DAMAGES
DAMAGES DUE
DUE TO
TO TROPICAL
TROPICAL
CYCLONES
CYCLONES WORLDWIDE
WORLDWIDE
DAMAGES
DEATHS
Other
Desasters
11%
Earthquake
s
Storms
7%
Landslides
8%
Earthquake1
0%
Droughts
4%
Tropical
Cyclones
23%
Floods
31%
Other
Desasters
6%
Floods
32%
Droughts
22%
Tropical
Cyclones
30%
CLASIFICATION OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Depression
< 63 km/h
Tropical Storm
63 - 117 km/h
Hurricane
> = 118 km/h
SAFFIR-SIMPSON
Hurricane Scale
Category Max. Sustained
1- min Winds
(km/h)
1
118-153
Potential
Damages
Minimal
2
154-177
Moderate
3
178-209
Extended
4
210-250
Extreme
5
> 250
Catastróphic
MAYOR HURRICANES (CAT 3-5) IN 106 YEARS
ATLANTIC MAYOR HURRICANES
1944 – 2001
Active
Period
Number of Mayor Hurricanes
Active Period
Inactive Period
Year
ATLANTIC MAYOR HURRICANES
1944 – 2001
Número de Huracanes Gran Int.
THE
THE YEARS
YEARS 1995-2003
1995-2003 ARE
ARE THE
THE MOST
MOST
ACTIVE
ACTIVE 9-YEAR
9-YEAR PERIOD
PERIOD EVER
EVER ON
ON
RECORD.
RECORD.
TROPICAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE
CYCLONE ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY
DOUBLED
DOUBLED AND
AND THE
THE NUMBER
NUMBER OF
OF
MAYOR
MAYOR HURRICANES
HURRICANES WAS
WAS 2.5
2.5 TIMES
TIMES
GREATER
GREATER THAT
THAT IN
IN ANY
ANY OTHER
OTHER 9-YEAR
9-YEAR
PERIOD
PERIOD ON
ON RECORD.
RECORD.
ONLY
ONLY ONE
ONE SEASON
SEASON IN
IN THIS
THIS 9-YEAR
9-YEAR
PERIOD
PERIOD WAS
WAS INACTIVE
INACTIVE (1997,
(1997, AN
AN “EL
“EL
NIÑO
NIÑO YEAR”).
YEAR”).
Año
COMPARISON
COMPARISON BETWEEN
BETWEEN 24
24 ACTIVE
ACTIVE AND
AND INACTIVE
INACTIVE
YEARS
YEARS IN
IN THE
THE XX
XX CENTURY
CENTURY
ACTIVE YEARS
INNACTIVE YEARS
1971 – 1994
24 years
1953 - 1970
1995 – 2000
24 years
Source: C. Landsea
Population
asmultiple
a multiple
that of 1900
Population as
of 1900of
population
INCREASE IN VULNERABILITY
FOR THE CARIBBEAN
Northern Islands:
BASIN
REFERRED
TO- 1998
1900
Population
Growth 1900
15
Bahamas
British Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
Cuba
10
Dominican Republic
Haiti
Population and
material wealth
increased in most
vulnerable coastal
areas, bringing a high
level of vulnerability.
Jamaica
Puerto Rico
Turks and Caicos
US Virgin Islands
5
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Years: 1900 - 1998
From Pielke, Rubiera, Landsea, Fernandez and Klein
1970
1980
1990
1998
THE DANGER OF
HURRICANES HAS
INCREASED IN THE
CARIBBEAN
THIS REALITY OBLIGUE US
TO BE ALWAYS MUCH
PREPARED
WMO WORLD WEATHER WATCH
(Adquisition of Data and Telecommunication System)
Global Numerical Models
TC Regional Specialized Centers
(Regional Models and Forecasts)
National Meteorological Centers
(National Weather Watch, Forecasts, Watches and Warnings)
General Public
Government
Civil Defense
MEDIA
INFORMATION
INFORMATION
ANALYSIS
PREPARATION
OF FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS
DISSEMINATION
RESPONSE
(C.D. AND PEOPLE
ACTIONS)
SATELLITES
TV
RADARS
STATIONS
SOUNDINGS
BUOYS
AIRCRAFTS
RADIO
FORECASTERS’
WORKSTATION
TLF - FAX
NUMERICAL
MODELS
INTERNET
TROPICAL CYCLONES
CYCLONES AND
AND THE
THE
TROPICAL
PUBLIC
PUBLIC
PUBLIC EDUCATION
EDUCATION
PUBLIC
ISSUANCE OF
OF
ISSUANCE
WARNINGS
WARNINGS
USE OF
OF THE
THE MEDIA
MEDIA
USE
PUBLIC EDUCATION
THROUGH RADIO & TV
University for All
All:: Teaching through TV.
At the beginning of a new Hurricane
Season
Season::
- Interviews with specialists in Radio
and TV.
- National Exercise “Meteor”
- Conferences and Talks
- Publicitary “Spots”
in Radio and TV
Teaching through TV:
EDUCATIONAL CHANNEL
EARLY WARNING
Possibility of Tropical Cyclone
affecting in the range
72–120 hours
• Prepares public conciousness, creates
the perception of danger
WARNINGS
A Tropical Cyclone is forecasted to
affect any area of the country
•T
There is an inmmediate danger. All
protective measures must be taken
EARLY WARNINGS AND
WARNINGS
NATIONAL FORECASTING
CENTER
MEDIA
PUBLIC
CIVIL DEFENSE/
GOVERNMENT
Warnings are issue from official
sources only
only::
1)
1) National
National Forecasting
Forecasting Center
Center::
Location
Location,, intensity
intensity,, threatened
threatened area
area,, future
future track
track and
and
intensity
intensity forecast
forecast..
2)
2) National
National Civil
Civil Defense
Defense::
Measures
Measures to
to Protect
Protect Lives
Lives and
and properties
properties..
PUBLIC INFORMATION
• Is
Is more frequent as time aproaches the moment of
the tropical cyclone strike
strike..
• National
National Radio & TV broadcast “live” from the
National Forecasting Center and the Civil Defense
Headquarters from 48 – 24 hours before the strike.
• Local
Local Radio & TV stations do the same for their
localities from the Provintial Forecasting
Departments and Local Civil.
• The Perception of Danger is
gradually being created
!!.
created!!.
USE OF THE MEDIA
¾INMMEDIATE and gets everywhere
¾Few resources needed to broadcast
¾Ideal for emergencies situations
¾Reach a wide audience
¾Use of graphics
¾Most useful for teaching purposes
¾Too slow for emergencies
¾Most useful for conciousness campaings
¾Useful for news about what happened
¾Information updated from the NMS
¾Of increasing use
¾Very good for international info exchange
Everyday presentation in
the TV studio
(( More
More that
that 72
72 hours
hours before)
before)
Live broadcast from the
Forecasting Center
People is warn about some details that
could drive to confusion, i.e. the
hurricane is NOT a point.
Also,
Also, some
some of
of the
the hurricane
hurricane main
main features.
features.
Mean Atlantic Hurricane
Errors
24 48
hrs hrs
72 96 120
hrs hrs hrs
Position
147 257 385 505 688
(km)
Winds
18 28 33 37 40
(km/h)
GRAPHIC EXPRESION OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN TV
HURRICANE
“MICHELLE” 2001
A CASE STUDY
The threatening
meteorological situation
Tropical
Tropical Depression
Depression 15
15
formed
formed October
October 29th
29th
near
near Puerto
Puerto Cabezas,
Cabezas,
Nicaragua.
Nicaragua. It
It had
had a
a
very
very slow
slow movement
movement
that
that caused
caused torrential
torrential
rains
rains and
and flooding
flooding in
in
NE
NE Nicaragua
Nicaragua and
and E
E
Honduras.
Honduras.
On
On October
October 31st,
31st, with
with
the
the center
center of
of
circulation
circulation over
over water,
water,
TD
TD 15
15 was
was upgraded
upgraded to
to
Tropical
Tropical Storm
Storm
“Michelle”
“Michelle”
The threatening
meteorological situation
“Michelle”
“Michelle” was
was
intensifying
intensifying rapidly.
rapidly. On
On
st
November
November 1
1st it
it already
already
was
was a
a hurricane.
hurricane.
Conditions
Conditions favored
favored
strengthening
strengthening to
to major
major
hurricane
hurricane force
force as
as well
well
as
as a
a slow
slow N
N to
to NE
NE
movement.
movement.
Medium
Medium Range
Range Forecasts
Forecasts
and
and Climatology
Climatology
suggested
suggested that
that it
it would
would
hit
hit Cuba
Cuba as
as a
a Cat
Cat 3-4
3-4
hurricane
hurricane within
within 3-4
3-4
days.
days.
The threatening
meteorological situation
On
On November
November 3rd
3rd it
it was
was a
a
major
major hurricane,
hurricane, Category
Category
4
4 in
in the
the Saffir-Simpson
Saffir-Simpson
Scale.
Scale. It
It was
was coming
coming
closer
closer to
to Cuba
Cuba as
as an
an
reconnaissance
reconnaissance aircraft
aircraft
reported
reported the
the lowest
lowest
pressure
pressure of
of 933
933 mb
mb and
and
220
220 km/h
km/h maximum
maximum
sustained
sustained winds.
winds.
Shortcomings to be
faced
DIFFICULTIES
DIFFICULTIES
¾
¾ No
No major
major hurricane
hurricane
has
has hit
hit Cuba
Cuba since
since
1952.
1952.
¾
¾ Two
Two generations
generations of
of
Cuban
Cuban didn’t
didn’t know
know
the
the effects
effects of
of a
a
major
major hurricane
hurricane
Cat
Cat 3
3 or
or 4.
4.
¾
¾ Cubans
Cubans only
only had
had
historical
historical memory
memory
of
of Cat
Cat 1
1
(Georges/1998)
(Georges/1998) and
and
Cat
Cat 2
2 (Lili/1996)
(Lili/1996)
hurricanes.
hurricanes.
Strengths to deal with
this Major Hurricane
STRENGHTS
STRENGHTS
¾
¾ Most
Most people
people is
is
educated.
educated.
¾
¾ Has
Has confidence
confidence in
in the
the
Meteorological
Meteorological
Service,
Service, officials
officials and
and
Civil
Civil Defense.
Defense.
¾
¾ A
A national
national exercise
exercise is
is
conducted
conducted in
in late
late May
May
every
every year
year on
on a
a major
major
hurricane
hurricane hitting
hitting the
the
Country.
Country.
¾
¾ Partnership
Partnership among
among the
the
Met.Service,
Met.Service, Civil
Civil
Defense
Defense and
and the
the Media.
Media.
Preparing to face the
Hurricane
Oct 31st
¾
¾ National
National Forecasting
Forecasting
Center
Center emphasized
emphasized
that
that the
the TC
TC was
was
developing
developing and
and
people
people should
should be
be in
in
touch
touch with
with latest
latest
information.
information.
TV
broadcasts
from the
newsroom
as usual
¾Officials
¾Officials of
of Government
Government
and
and Civil
Civil Defense
Defense are
are
informed
informed of
of the
the situation
situation
and
and the
the potential
potential threat
threat
to
to the
the Country.
Country.
Preparing to face the
Hurricane TV & radio
Nov 1st
¾
¾ Weather
Weather information
information
is
is reinforced.
reinforced.
Meteorologists
Meteorologists
explained
explained the
the
situation
situation in
in detail
detail and
and
state
state there
there was
was a
a
real
real threat.
threat.
broadcasts
“live” from
the National
Forecasting
Center
¾Informative
¾Informative Phase.
Phase.
Government
Government and
and Civil
Civil
Defense
Defense update
update hurricane
hurricane
plans.
plans.
Preparing to face the
Hurricane
Preparing to face the
Hurricane TV & radio
Nov 2nd
¾
¾ Weather
Weather Reports
Reports
more
more frequent.
frequent. TV
TV
and
and radio
radio report
report on
on
the
the preparation
preparation of
of the
the
country
country to
to face
face the
the
storm
storm threat.
threat.
broadcasts
“live” from
the National
Forecasting
Center
¾Hurricane
¾Hurricane Watch
Watch in
in
effect
effect for
for Western
Western and
and
Central
Central Cuba.
Cuba. Evacuation
Evacuation
of
of most
most dangerous
dangerous or
or
distant
distant places
places began.
began.
Preparing to face the
Hurricane HOURLY TV
Nov 3rd
¾
¾ National
National Forecasting
Forecasting
center
center advised
advised
people
people that
that all
all
measures
measures to
to protect
protect
lives
lives and
and property
property
should
should be
be completed.
completed.
& radio
broadcasts
“live” from
the National
Forecasting
Center
¾Hurricane
¾Hurricane Warnings
Warnings in
in
effect.
effect. All
All evacuations
evacuations
and
and protective
protective measures
measures
are
are completed
completed by
by the
the end
end
of
of daylight.
daylight.
One of the difficulties in
preparing people to face the
hurricane threat was the
fact that nobody really
realized what was a Cat 4
hurricane
THE FOLLOWING PICTURES WERE SHOWN ON TV
DURING ALL DAY, SATURDAY NOVEMBER 3rd,
TO SHOW THE EFFECT THAT A MAJOR
HURRICANE COULD BRING
Storm
Storm Surge
Surge at
at Santa
Santa Cruz
Cruz del
del Sur,
Sur, Nov.
Nov. 9,1932
9,1932
FLOODING IN HAVANA.
HURRICANE OCTOBER 26, 1926
FORCE OF
WINDS IN
THE
OCTOBER
1926
HURRICANE
A
A pine
pine wood
wood sheet
sheet
went
went across
across the
the hard
hard
core
core of
of aa Royal
Royal Palm
Palm
at
at Batabano
Batabano,,
Havana
Havana
EFFECT
EFFECT OF
OF HURRICANE
HURRICANE WINDS
WINDS ON
ON THE
THE
STEEL
STEEL STRUCTURE
STRUCTURE OF
OF A
A SUGAR
SUGAR CANE
CANE MILL,
MILL,
CENTRAL
CENTRAL TOLEDO,
TOLEDO, HAVANA,
HAVANA, OCT.
OCT. 1926
1926
Preparing to face the
Hurricane
WE
WE EMPHASIZED
EMPHASIZED
THAT
THAT THE
THE
HURRICANE
HURRICANE IS
IS NOT
NOT
THE
THE POINT
POINT AT
AT THE
THE
CENTER,
CENTER, THAT
THAT
HURRICANE
HURRICANE WINDS
WINDS
AND
AND RAIN
RAIN COVERS
COVERS
A
A VERY
VERY WIDE
WIDE AREA,
AREA,
ESPECIALLY
ESPECIALLY IN
IN
MICHELLE.
MICHELLE.
ALSO
ALSO THE
THE
CHARACTERISTICS
CHARACTERISTICS
OF
OF CALM
CALM IN
IN THE
THE
EYE.
EYE.
The Hurricane Strikes
Nov 4th
COMPLETE
COMPLETE TV
TV &
& RADIO
RADIO 24
24 HOUR
HOUR COVERAGE
COVERAGE
“LIVE”
“LIVE” latest
latest information
information from
from the
the National
National
Forecasting
Forecasting Center
Center
Reports
Reports from
from correspondents
correspondents in
in the
the affected
affected
provinces
provinces
THE STRIKE
Nov 4th
Satellite
Satellite loop
loop showing
showing Michelle
Michelle crossing
crossing Cuba
Cuba
THE STRIKE
THE STRIKE
Nov 4th
Lowest Central Pressure:
949 mb in Cayo Largo
Maximum Sustained Winds:
220 km/h
Highest Gust: 250 km/h
Eye diameter: 40 km
Diameter of Circulation:
500 km
Michelle
Michelle
affected
affected 45%
45%
of
of Cuban
Cuban
territory,
territory,
where
where 53%
53% of
of
the
the population
population
live:
live: 5.8
5.8 million
million
inhabitants
inhabitants
THE AFTERMATH
THE AFTERMATH
THE AFTERMATH
THE AFTERMATH
THE AFTERMATH
1926
2001
THE AFTERMATH
Total Economic Loss: US $1 866 million
Houses damaged: 166 515
Totally destroyed: 12 579
125 electric towers destroyed
5 761 electric poles fell down,
5 987 telephone poles fell down
14 828 telephones were interrupted
9 TV and microwave towers fell down
54% of sugar cane planted area was affected
Total cost of Recovery estimated in
US $785 million
HOWEVER,
Only five people died in
this major hurricane.
CUBAN EXPERIENCE
A RELIABLE AND TRUSTED FORECAST
PLUS A GOOD INFORMATION TO THE
PUBLIC THROUGH RADIO & TV
•• Everyone
Everyone keeps
keeps informed
informed
•• Great
Great credibility
credibility is
is paid
paid to
to the
the message
message
•• People
People is
is convinced
convinced that
that there
there is
is at
at risk
risk
•• It
It promotes
promotes the
the taking
taking of
of protective
protective
measures
measures
••A
And
And there
there is
is no
no room
room left
left for
for rumours
rumours
THE RESULT OF THESE
POSITIVES EXPERIENCES
NAME
Lili
Georges
Irene
Michelle
Isidore
Lili
YEAR
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2002
CAT DEATHS
H2
0
H1
6
TT
2
H4
5
H1
0
H2
1
AND MATERIAL DAMAGES HAVE BEEN
MINIMIZED
The gratitude of the
Cuban People
In
In the
the name
name of
of “Michelle”,
“Michelle”,
“Isidore”,
“Isidore”, “Lili”
“Lili” and
and all
all
Cubans,
Cubans, our
our
congratulations
congratulations to
to all
all the
the
meteorological
meteorological team
team that
that
have
have made
made such
such
distinguished
distinguished work...
work...
THANK
THANK YOU
YOU …
…
MUCHAS
MUCHAS GRACIAS
GRACIAS …
…