The Scenario - Dorset County Council
Transcription
The Scenario - Dorset County Council
Exploring future implications of climate change for three National Trust areas in Dorset Contents Page Introduction 1 Studland Scenario 10 Brownsea Island Scenario 31 Black Ven Scenario 53 Appendix 1 70 The three Scenarios contained within this report were compiled by the Dorset Coast Forum Team from information and ideas freely given by members of the Forum and from the general public. Thank you to M.Simons, R.Edmonds, A.J.Flux and J.Wharam for the use of photos Cover photos: Mark Simons Design: Design & Print Service - Dorset County Council 107272 1 Introduction to the project The Dorset Coast Forum (DCF) is a successful coastal partnership with a proven track record in Integrated Coastal Zone Management and related project delivery. The strength of the DCF lies in the broad spectrum of expertise and knowledge of its membership and their consistent and enthusiastic support of the Forum’s work. With 170 member organisations the DCF core team can easily access the opinions of members who represent all the relevant marine sectors. DCF provides the opportunity for members to network and for partnership projects to be developed. It provides up to date, relevant coastal and marine information and a mechanism where stakeholders can input into issues and, consultations as well as making local marine and spatial data accessible. The project set out to develop three potential scenarios of coastal change at three National Trust locations over varying time periods. The scenarios attempt to identify outcomes and issues for the NT. 1. Studland Beach – To explore the possible future consequences of accelerated erosion of the coast where serious or even catastrophic damage is done to the social, economic and environmental integrity of an important coastal area. 2. Brownsea Island – To look at the loss of land over a longer period of time and examine what impact climate change and sea level rise may have on the morphology, wildlife and the economy of the Island. 3. Black Ven and the Spittles – To identify and examine the different issues arising from the proposed Phase 4 coastal defence at Lyme Bay and possible management regimes for National Trust land at Black Ven and the Spittles, and the consequences of the coastal defence scheme not being in place. Scenario Planning Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool employed to assist in the development of flexible, long-term plans. The technique was originally developed by the military in the late 19th century, and allowed generals and their aides to plan their troop deployments based on the movements the enemy might make. Scenario planning uses a plausible model to explore and improve understanding about how the future may unfold. It operates most effectively as a group process that encourages knowledge exchange. The technique encourages creative thinking, facilitates the development of mutual deeper understanding of the issues deemed important to the scenario, and helps to widen our perception of possible future events. Scenarios are used to develop strategies and contingency plans, which in turn are used as a basis for policy development. These policies improve the chances of dealing effectively with possible future events. Scenarios help to link uncertainties about the future with the decisions that need to be taken today. It is important to elucidate the main drivers that influence a given scenario and to then identify the administrative, legal and practical issues that are currently applicable. The process will also allow for the identification of any knowledge gaps or weaknesses in the current system. For this reason, scenario planning can help policy-makers to anticipate these hidden weaknesses. When identified well in advance of the event, this greatly improves the opportunity to rectify the problem or mitigate the effects. It is important to realise that finding answers to identified problems is not a precondition to undertaking a scenario exercise. If full answers do emerge then this should be regarded as a bonus. 2 Steps in the scenario General background planning process information that is relevant for all the three areas This project follows a similar process to that developed by the Dorset Coast Forum (DCF) during the Defra Rural Pathfinder project in 2006. During this project, the DCF found effective mechanisms that allowed relevant information to be drawn from key stakeholders. The lack of hierarchical impediments and a mutually supportive membership means that coastal partnerships, such as the DCF, are well-placed to gather collective expertise from a wide range of stakeholders, including the public. The DCF scoped scenarios for three National Trust areas – The Studland Peninsula, Brownsea Island and Black Ven. These scenarios were then further developed, with the assistance of the respective National Trust Property Manager to ensure the scenarios were plausible. To engage effectively with stakeholders, workshops were held for each respective scenario. This allowed a wide range of views to be gathered from professionals and interested parties of all sectors at one time. This is extremely important and beneficial as it allows exchange of views and enabled greater depth of understanding of the whole topic to be shared. Ideas from the workshops were captured on flipcharts and dialogue from each workshop was recorded on mini disc. Individual interviews were also undertaken. Questionnaires were developed and distributed to enable the public to be included in the consultation. Common themes that were raised during the workshops and through the public consultation were then grouped, and investigative research was undertaken into each. Gaps in knowledge were identified, and the main statutory and non-statutory instruments applicable to each scenario were highlighted. This final report presents the findings from this process. Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) Many of England’s 4,000 SSSIs are designated as SACs, SPAs, NNRs and/or Ramsar sites. Natural England oversees the protection and management of SSSIs under the Countryside and Rights of Way Act (2000) (CROW Act). SSSIs should be afforded a ‘high degree of protection’ under the planning system’ according to PPS9. Around SSSIs there lies a ‘consultation zone’ with regard to planning. This is generally set at 500m except where the local planning authority thinks it should be more (eg. development down stream of a SSSI). Special Protection Areas (SPA) SPAs are designated under the European Commission Directive on the Conservation of Wild Birds (79/409/ EEC) (the Birds Directive). Classified SPAs and candidate SACs (candidate SACs are sites that have been submitted to the European Commission, but formal adoption is pending) together form the European wide network of sites known as Natura 2000. Special protection exists for heathland Natura 2000 sites. In these sites where housing lies within 400m of the designation these is a ‘presumption against development’. From 400m to 5km development is allowed provided suitable mitigation is proposed. (They are classified for vulnerable and rare birds which are listed in Annex I of the Directive, and for regularly occurring migratory species. The Directive doesn’t provide a formal criterion for the selection of SPAs, thus the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, on behalf of the statutory country conservation agencies and government, published SPA Selection Guidelines for UK use. Annex I birds and regularly occurring migratory birds which lead to the designation). Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) SACs are strictly protected sites which have been designated under the EC Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC). 3 Ramsar sites UK Ramsar sites are generally afforded statutory protection through association with SSSIs under the Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981) and in England and Wales further statutory protection is offered under the Countryside and Rights Of Way Act (2000). Guidance is provided in the form of Policy statements relating to the special status of Ramsar sites, under which the same level of protection is afforded as sites designated under the EC Birds and Habitats Directive (EU Natura 2000 network). Sites of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) This recognition includes sites which are considered important at a county level. Sites are selected by assessing their ‘wildlife importance’ using existing data or by conducting new field surveys. They are chosen and designated by a SNCI panel, led by the Dorset Wildlife Trust. Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) The Dorset AONB covers 40% of Dorset. Natural England is responsible for designation and management advice of AONBs under the Countryside and Rights of Way Act (2000). The Dorset AONB Partnership have managed the Dorset AONB since 2003, they are an independent partnership who bring together local authorities, statutory agencies and stakeholders. The Countryside and Rights of Way Act (2000) brought in new laws to enhance the protection of AONBs. These laws mean that Local Authorities have a detailed statutory responsibility and must prepare management plans for such areas. In addition all public bodies have a ‘duty of regard’ in relation to AONBs. Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site This designation runs from Orcombe Point in Exmouth in the East to past Handfast Point in Studland Bay and was achieved due to the site’s unique geological characteristics. It depicts a geological ‘walk through time’ spanning the Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous periods. The table below shows the degree of protection that each designation affords. Conservation designation ‘hierarchy’ Designation Nature of designation Degree of environmental protection afforded SPA/SAC/ RAMSAR International High SSSI (NNRs) National Intermediate SNCI County-level Low World Heritage International Low Conservation Verges County - level Low Table 1 Degree of protection which designations afford EU Habitats and Species Directive The Habitats Directive (Council Directive 92/43/ EEC) forms the cornerstone of Europe’s nature conservation policy. Under this legislation, it is an offence to kill, injure or capture; disturb or damage or destroy the habitat of species of Community interest listed in the Annexes to the Directive. The Conservation (Natural Habitats &c.) Regulations 1994 and the Conservation (Natural Habitats &c.) (Amendment) Regulations 2007 transpose the Habitats Directive into national law in the UK. Article 3 of the Habitats Directive requires the establishment of a European network of important high-quality conservation sites (Natura 2000 network) that will make a significant contribution to conserving the 189 habitat types and 788 species identified in Annexes I and II of the Directive. Regionally Important Geological Sites (RIGS) RIGS are considered to be the most important places for geology and geomorphology outside of statutorily protected sites. Designated by locally developed criteria they hold no statutory protection but they must be considered within the planning process. Conservation Verges Conservation Verges are informal recognitions of wildlife interest. This designation has no legislation attached to it and poses negligible planning implications. Coastal Defence and Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) Until recently, coastal defences were constructed on an ad-hoc basis and failed to consider the impact on other coastlines. In 1994, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries (MAFF – now Defra) responded to the need for a more strategic approach by requiring that Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) are in 4 Draft UK Marine Bill place for any maritime authority seeking grant aid for coastal defence works. The first SMPs were published in 1999. The Draft UK Marine Bill key has areas of interest which are relevant to the scenarios, they include: The SMP is a non-statutory, high-level document that aims to balance coastal flooding and erosion risks with natural processes and the consequences of climate change. The SMP sets policy and takes account of existing defences and natural and built environments. Marine Management Organisation – The UK government intends to set up a new Marine Management Association (MMO) to deliver many of its objectives for the marine environment. The Bill will give the new MMO the ability, where needed, to manage a range of currently unregulated activities, such as bait collecting, jet-skiing or scuba diving, through conservation orders. SMPs are now under review (SMP2). The lead authority for the area Durlston Head to Rame Head (includes the Black Ven area) is Teignbridge District Council and the lead for Hurst Spit to Durlston Head (including the areas coving Brownsea and Studland) is Bournemouth Borough Council. For up to date details please see http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/ guidance/smp.htm for general details and time table. For Bournemouth see http://www. twobays.net/ and for Teignbridge see http:// www.sdadcag.org/ Marine Planning – The intention is to create a strategic marine planning system that will clarify the government’s marine objectives and priorities for the future, and direct decision-makers and users towards more efficient, sustainable use and protection of marine resources. A modernised and streamlined marine licensing system is to be introduced making it easier for recreational users of the marine environment to enjoy leisure activities. Planning Policy Guidance (PPG) 20 Planning Policy Guidance notes are prepared by the government after public consultation to explain statutory provisions and provide guidance to local authorities (and others) on planning policy and the operation of the planning system. PPG20 highlights issues that are particularly relevant to the coastal zone, although they are often not exclusively coastal. PPG20 covers the character of the coast, designated areas and heritage coasts. It discusses types of coast, policies for their conservation and development and policies covering risks of flooding, erosion and unstable land. It also covers coastal protection and defence. PPG20 outlines policies for developments which may specifically require a coastal location, including tourism and recreation. This PPG was originally released in 1992 and is currently being updated. It is hoped that this update will provide guidance on planning policy relating to climate change. PPGs are gradually being replaced by the more comprehensive and informed Planning Policy Statements (PPSs). Coastal Access – The Marine Bill has been identified as the most appropriate means for introducing draft legislation to improve recreational access to the English coast. Natural England has been tasked with providing recommendations for this scheme. The draft Marine Bill aims to improve public access to, and enjoyment of, the English coastline by creating clear and consistent public rights along the English coast for most types of open-air recreation on foot (such as walking, climbing and picnicking). It will allow existing coastal access to be secured and improved and new access to be created in coastal places where it does not currently exist. The programme is expected to take ten years to complete. The intention is that the route is future-proofed, and able to move back if parts of the coastline erode. The introduction of new access rights over coastal land will be undertaken in a way that ensures appropriate protection of habitats, wildlife and landscape. Natural England has a further duty (in accordance with the Habitats Regulations) to consider the implications of the new coastal access rights. Coastal defence priorities will not be changed by the creation of the new access rights. The trail will need to adapt to changes in the coastline either because the coastline is already eroding, or there is a strategy of managed coastal realignment (or non-intervention with coastal processes), which will lead to change occurring. On a defended coast, the trail will often be aligned along the coastal defence structure itself, if it is safe, suitable and convenient for public access on foot. 5 Climate change for Dorset’s coastal waters This report does not examine the reasons for climate change but provides figures for the areas to show a clearer picture of what is happening locally. Background The climate of the earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a range of natural causes. Temperatures have risen by about 0.74°C on average across the globe from 1906 to 20051. The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990 (1998 being the warmest). Arctic sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to its second-lowest level since measurements began and this strongly reinforces the thirty-year downward trend in Artic ice extent2. Climate change in the UK can be measured from records dating back over 350 years. Since 1659, temperatures in the UK have increased by 0.7°C, with 0.5°C of this rise taking place during the 20th Century3. By 2040, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1°C, depending on the region. By 2100, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise between 1 and 5°C, depending on the region and gaseous emissions scenario. The current convention is to use three time periods, 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s. There is also expected to be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west4. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that the likely range of average global warming by the end of this century is between 1.1 and 6.4°C (relative to 1980-1999)5. For the purposes of modelling the future climate, four ‘emissions scenarios’ were used in the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre model to generate climate scenarios for UKCIP. The different emissions scenarios are based on assumptions about different rates of global economic growth, population size and efficiency of resource use and are: low emissions; medium-low emissions; medium-high emissions and high emissions. Using the Hadley Centre model, climate predictions for each of these emissions scenarios were generated for the UK (UKCIP02) for three 30 year time periods: around the 2020s; around the 2050s and around the 2080s. UKCIP02 modelled results at a 50km resolution for grid squares that were predominantly land (see information Figures 1 -4). For this reason, the west Dorset grid square has not been mapped. UKCIP08 report will work to 25km grid squares (which will allow for improved mapping of coastal areas) and will also contain marine projections. Figure 1 - shows the changes in south-west England mean annual temperature (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios. Figure 1 Mean Annual Temperature (© SWCCIP) 1 2 3 4 UKCIP, 2008. www.ukcip.org.uk http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html Hadley Centre, 2008. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ UKCIP, 2008. www.ukcip.org.uk 5 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Climate Change 2007. http:// www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm 6 Figure 2 Maximum Annual Temperature (© SWCCIP) Figure 3 Annual Average Precipitation (© SWCCIP) Figure 4 Annual Wind Speeds (© SWCCIP) 7 Figure 2 - shows changes in south-west England maximum annual temperature (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios. Figure 3 - shows changes in south-west England annual average precipitation (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios. Figure 4 - shows changes in south-west England annual wind speeds (as compared to the 1961-90 average) for the thirty year periods around the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, for the UKCIP02 Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios. Under the Medium-High Emissions scenario, an overall warming of up to 3°C in sea surface temperatures is predicted for the south west. The climate changes expected in the Hadley Centre models predict additional (global) sea level rises of between 14cm and 18cm for the 2050s, and between 23cm (Low Emissions) and 36cm (High Emissions) for the 2080s. The cumulative net sea level rise for the 2080s for southwest England therefore varies from 16cm under a Low Emissions scenario to 76cm under a High Emissions scenario6. experienced more frequently, and by 2100 storm surge events could occur up to 20 times more frequently for some coastal locations8. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is hosted at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and is the global data bank for long-term sea level change information from tide gauges9. Figure 5 - shows monthly mean sea levels for Bournemouth from 1996 to 2008. Figure 6 - shows monthly mean sea levels for Weymouth from 1991 to 2008. Figure 5 Monthly mean sea levels for Bournemouth (courtesy PSMSL) The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is currently developing UKCIP08 – the fifth generation of UK climate change scenarios, which describe how the climate of the UK may alter during the 21st Century. Currently Defra, the Met Office Hadley Centre and UKCIP have taken a decision to delay the launch of UKCIP08 to allow more time to consolidate the climate projections. The projections are expected to be published in Spring 2009. This rise in global and UK temperature has been accompanied by a rise in sea levels and an increase in sea temperature. Global average sea level rose by between 10 and 20cm during the 20th Century, and this is expected to continue7. Absolute sea level has increased by approximately 10cm around the UK coast during the 20th Century, though natural land movements mean there are large regional differences in the actual sea level rise detected at different coastal locations. Due to these variations in natural land movements, there is expected to be greater sea level rise in the south of England than in western Scotland. It is also expected that extreme sea levels will be 6 See ‘Warming to the Idea’ – SW Climate Change Impact Scoping Study. http://www.oursouthwest.com/climate/scopingstudy.htm 7 UKCIP, 2008. www.ukcip.org.uk 8 UKCIP, 2008. www.ukcip.org.uk 9 http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/ Figure 6 Monthly mean sea levels for Weymouth (courtesy PSMSL) Over the last five decades there has been a progressive increase in the presence of warm-water/sub-tropical species in the more temperate areas of the north-east Atlantic and a decline in colder water species. These mass biogeographical movements are related to changes in sea surface temperature and have accelerated over the last five years10. 10 Edwards, M., Johns, D.G., Beaugrand, G., Licandro, P., John, A.W.G. & Stevens, D.P., 2008. Ecological Status Report: results from the CPR survey 2006/2007. SAHFOS Technical Report, 5:1-8. Plymouth, UK. ISSSN 1744-0750. 8 British Oceanographic Data Centre British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) hold a wealth of publicly accessible marine data collected using a variety of instruments and samplers and collated from many sources. The data includes biological, chemical, physical and geophysical data and their databanks contain measurements of nearly 19,000 different oceanographic variables. BODC makes data available under a licence agreement. BODC holds sea level data from all over the world in many formats. They are working on this portal, to enable individuals to search all sea level data holdings and, where possible, download the data. There will be a map, so that one can search by geographical location, and a form to fill in, so one can specify the time period, the type of record (e.g. chart, digital) and the sampling interval you are interested in. The nearest records relating to these scenarios are in Bournemouth and Weymouth. Environment Agency Flood maps The flood maps were produced in 2007 and povide a guide to chance of flooding in specific locations. The floodplain is shown in either dark or light blue. Below are maps relating to the three areas, showing the areas liable to flooding. The dark blue ¢ shows the area that could be affected by flooding, either from rivers or the sea, if there were no flood defences. This area could be flooded: from the sea by a flood that has a 0.5% (1 in 200) or greater chance of happening each year; or from a river by a flood that has a 1% (1 in 100) or greater chance of happening each year. Light blue ¢ shows the additional extent of an extreme flood from rivers or the sea. These outlying areas are likely to be affected by a major flood, with a 0.1% (1 in 1000) or greater chance of occurring each year. These two colours show the extent of the natural floodplain if there were no flood defences, channel improvements or other human interventions. Studland, Brownsea Island and Charmouth are in areas that have a ‘significant’ chance of flooding. The chance of flooding each year is greater than 1.3% (1 in 75). This takes into account the effect of any flood defences that may be in this area, whether or not these are currently illustrated on the Flood Maps 1 and 2. Map 1 Flood risk map for Studland and Brownsea Dark blue indicates flooding from rivers or sea without sea defences. Light blue indicates extreme flooding. Crown Copyright: All rights reserved. Environment Agency 100026380, 2008 9 Map 2 Flood risk map for Black Ven Crown Copyright: All rights reserved. Environment Agency 100026380, 2008 10 Executive summary – Studland scenario What we set out to do: To explore a plausible future situation where sea level rise is increasing dramatically in an area of the south coast. This area is popular with tourists and of high ecological importance, and the project aims to explore the concerns and local issues that might surround such a situation. How we went about it: A detailed desktop study allowed the scenario to be scoped and structured. The scenario was then further developed in collaboration with the National Trust Property Manager for the site. Two workshops and subsequent individual interviews allowed for effective engagement with stakeholders and other interested parties. A questionnaire allowed for the gathering of public opinion. What were the main issues raised? • Decisions made on a larger geographical scale may influence the future of the Studland peninsula for example the Shoreline Management Plan revisions (SMP2) • Changes in environmental legislation relating to environmental designations will be necessary to allow for adaptation to climate change. Future legislation will need to allow flexibility • There is likely to be increasing visitor pressure on this site and future management policies need to allow for this • Addressing transport issues is key to managing access to the site Where are the main knowledge gaps? • There is still uncertainty regarding the rate of Sea Level Rise (SLR), especially at a local level Recommendation: Link in with British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) UK Tide Gauge Network. This network has a tide gauge that was located at Bournemouth in 1996 – data is downloaded weekly, and monthly and annual data are available for download. Approach BODC for advice on installation of tide gauge at Studland. • How can optimum levels of investment on coast defence (in terms of cost/benefit) be calculated over extended time periods? • The feasibility and desirability of beach replenishment at Studland requires further investigation – especially into the costs involved and who is likely to pay for such a project • Meteorological monitoring and the accumulation of data sets will assist the NT in developing management plans for the infrastructure if and when specific trends are identified Recommendation: Keep daily local weather records, including occurrence of storm surges and tidal ranges suggest advertising to see if a resident in the Studland area is currently recording weather patterns which could be used. Work with Channel Coast Observatory southeast regional coastal monitoring programme to collate data. This work may be suitable for NT volunteers once given a suitable training. 11 The Studland scenario The year is 2066… Mean sea levels along the South coast of England are now 83cm higher than they were 60 years ago. 40% (33cm) of this dramatic increase has taken place in the last 20 years. Whilst the UK has made some progress towards the 2035 emission reduction targets set by the European Climate Control Council (ECCC), the results from around the world have been varied and global CO2 emissions are far from stabilised. Sea level rise (SLR) estimates for the southwest of England produced early this century suggested that local sea levels would be 0.25m – 0.5m higher by 2066. In 2005, estimates suggested a rise of 3mm – 4mm per year. However, in 2007 experts began to suggest that SLR was starting to increase on an exponential rather than linear scale. In 2008, the generally accepted figure was 8mm per year (based upon figures from the previous 10 years). However, by 2025 it became clear that this was a serious underestimation and that rates were increasing year-on-year. The geography of the Studland peninsula has changed dramatically in the last 60 years. The car park at Middle Beach was finally abandoned in 2029 due to the instability of the clay cliff, and a much smaller piece of land for car parking made available closer to Ferry Road. A light-footprint Visitor Centre was also constructed next to the new car park. The area at Knoll Beach that was previously occupied by the car park, shop and café has now been returned to dune. These dunes are now regularly subject to inundation by the sea during the fierce southerly gales that have become a more frequent occurrence during the last 20 years. The rows of beach huts that used to line both Knoll Beach and Middle beach have now gone. Due to the vulnerability of the site, the last of these were dismantled around 40 years ago following the agreed policy that they should not be replaced once lost. Studland continues to enjoy high visitor numbers (2.2million in the exceptionally hot summer of 2059). As only a small, privileged proportion of the UK population are able to afford private, fuelled transportation, the use of private vehicles has almost ceased entirely. The majority of visitors to the area arrive by the light railway constructed in 2039 that connects with the main service at Norden. The economic health of Studland Village, and the Isle of Purbeck as a whole, still largely depends upon the continued popularity of Studland and its beaches. The long, hot summers of recent years have seen a significant increase in the number of French, Dutch and German travellers who prefer to take their holidays in the marginally cooler UK climate. There have been major seawater inundations to the privately owned Ferry Road, especially towards the northern end of the peninsula. This extensive flooding has led to the formation of a number of small, brackish lagoons, replacing many of the freshwater mires. The Little Sea has been contaminated by seawater on several occasions, and this has caused dramatic changes in speciation. If sea levels rise by a further 30cm, then the Little Sea will become a true sea lake. The Bournemouth – Swanage Ferry operators had to realign both slipways in 2028 and again in 2065. They anticipate that this realignment should suffice for 30 years but that if the severity and frequency of autumn and winter storms increase, then the whole operation may be brought into doubt. The ferry operators are also concerned that the reduction in private road users is seriously affecting the business. However, the Highways Directorate still consider the road link across the mouth of the harbour to be a vital communications link. Because of regular breaches across the road and into Poole Harbour, the changing sedimentation processes within the harbour itself are causing difficulties with the shipping channel. Local residents in Swanage and the surrounding villages consider the ferry link to be absolutely vital both in terms of access for visitors and also for the many who work in Poole or Bournemouth. A strong local lobby is pressing for the road to be realigned, strengthened and protected. 12 Aerial photograph of Studland (©Google Earth). Summary of the scenario findings Background information (2008) Studland is a small village on the Isle of Purbeck in Dorset. Visitors and locals alike are drawn to its sandy bay which is comprised of three beaches: South Beach, Middle Beach and Knoll Beach and the Studland and Godlingston Heath National Nature Reserve (NNR), which is managed by the National Trust. The village and bay fall within Studland Civil Parish (CP) (Map 1.0) which covers a considerably larger area than the village alone, encompassing Brownsea Island in the north. Map.1.0 The boundaries of Studland Civil Parish Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd This background data deals with statistics which are largely gathered within political boundaries therefore any data related to Studland will encompass an area referred to as Studland Civil Parish – outlined in Map 1.0. Other political boundaries include Purbeck District Council (PDC) and Dorset County Council (DCC) (which excludes the unitary authorities of Poole and Bournemouth). Housing and Population The estimated Purbeck population for 2006 was 42,200, of which 470 resided within Studland. The average household size was 2.1 and 20.5% of housing at this time were second home/holiday accommodation. Projections of population growth over a 20 year period can be viewed in Figure 1.0. In Dorset there have been 9,480 dwelling completions since 2001, although in Studland there have only been a total of 8 since 1994. The recent Regional Spatial Strategy Panel Report recommendations estimate there should be 5,150 new dwellings within Purbeck by 2026, an average of 286 a year in comparison with the 77 a year since 2001. Number of people (in 1000s) • Climate change is likely to drive changes in species composition (which may alter the ecology of the site) and topography (which could have health and safety implications for visitors) • Studland is likely to be exposed to increased visitor pressure by 2066. Management of visitor access and the provision of facilities for visitors must be a key consideration well before this date in order to maintain the visitor experience (and the reputation of the National Trust) • Increasing public awareness of climate change is essential • Educating the public and other key stakeholders about the management of the site is needed • Transport issues must be addressed as a priority with an innovative and realistic approach • Changes in environmental legislation relating to environmental designations will be necessary to allow for adaptation to climate change • Impacts of increased visitor numbers accompanied by the impacts of climate change and SLR will require careful management so as to mitigate against adverse effects • Long-term monitoring of local geomorphology is extremely important for detecting trends in coastal change to inform future planning • Working in partnership on different aspects is needed to address many of the issues identified within this study Figure 1.0 Current Purbeck population and projections for the next 10 and 20 years Source: Office for National Statistics mid year estimates and Dorset County Council (2008) 13 Table 1.0 Estimated age structures of Studland Civil Parish, Purbeck and Dorset County Age Group Studland Civil Parish (%) Purbeck (%) Dorset County Council (%) 0-4 3.4 4.4 4.5 5-10 4.5 6.1 6.3 11-18 10.7 10.4 10.7 19-24 7.2 5.9 4.9 25-39 14.1 14.5 14.4 40-49 16.0 14.3 14.0 50-64 20.7 22.2 21.5 65-74 12.8 11.0 11.5 75-84 7.9 8.1 8.8 85+ 2.8 3.2 3.5 Age structure of Studland (2007) Figure.1.1 Estimated age structure of Studland Source: Office for National Statistics mid year estimates and Dorset County Council (2008) Access and Tourism Studland is accessed via the B3351 from the A351. The B3351 terminates on the coast at the village of Studland and from here a minor road (Ferry Road) runs north through the reserve to South Haven Point. A ferry service joins South Haven Point with Sandbanks. Wareham, the nearest railway station is 8 km to the north west. Numbers of visitors to Studland are difficult to monitor due to the number of access point as these access roads are also used as through roads and so the only method used for monitoring visitor numbers is a car count within the car parks carried out by the National Trust. The method used when collecting this information means that the data is not directly comparable year on year. The data was standardised as much as possible. Figure 1.2 gives an indication of car numbers counted in car parks located at Shell Bay, Knoll Beach, Middle Beach and an overflow site between April and September from 1998-2006. Numbers of cars counted annually from April to September The majority of Studland residents are aged between 50-64 (21%), 16% are 40-49 and 14% are 25-39 (Figure 1.1). This is representative of both Purbeck and of Dorset as a whole (see Table 1.0). The age structure of Studland and Purbeck residents is represented in Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Car numbers recorded in Shell Bay, Knoll, Middle, South and Overflow car parks form 1998 to 2006 Source: National Trust Tourism draws from many sectors thus calculations regarding revenue and statistics can vary greatly. The two main sources on tourism data in Purbeck are a report ‘Value of Tourism’, commissioned by South West Tourism Ltd and a visitor survey taken in 2006 commissioned by the Data Project. Some key figures can be seen in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Figures (£Million) relating to tourism in Purbeck. Source: Purbeck Tourism, Key Tourism Information and Statistics (2005) Spend by staying visitors £84.9m Other tourism related spends £4.3m Total £89.2m Trips by staying visitors 438,000 Jobs related to tourism spending 3,353 Percentage of employment supported by tourism 14% 59% of respondents to the 2006 survey reported staying for 4 to 7 nights and the majority where visiting in groups of 2 adults with 78% belonging to the higher socio-economic groups. 92% of visitors were from the UK. 32% of respondents stayed in Swanage. The highest motivations for a visit to Purbeck (72%) were ‘scenery, countryside, natural history’, ‘the seaside, beaches and coasts’ and the most preferred activity when in Purbeck were ‘coastal walks’ (84%). A report by SW Tourism ‘United Kingdom Tourism Survey 2006: A regional perspective’, showed that the most popular method of transport used by visitors travelling to the southwest was the car. This data is mirrored by the Purbeck Visitor Survey 2006 which found that 79% of visitors travelled to Purbeck by car (see Figure 1.3) and 75% used their cars to get around while on holiday. These figures are also reflected by the 14 numbers of vehicles using the ferry service that connects Studland to Sandbanks on its north side (see Figure 1.4) and the results in Figure 1.5 which were derived from information collected by Bournemouth University. Bournemouth University undertake annual visitor surveys at Studland on behalf of the National Trust. These surveys judge visitor perception, ascertaining visitor’s motivations and experiences in relation to their visits to Studland Bay. Figure 1.3 Method of transport used on longest section of trip in the Southwest Source: United Kingdom Tourism Survey 2006: A regional perspective’ (Southwest Tourism). The level of car use to access this site illustrates the reliance on the accommodation, transport links and parking capacity of the surrounding areas, especially those within 14 miles as 64% travelled from within this distance with 31% from within a 5 mile radius. The vast majority of visitors travelled from home or from holiday accommodation, 42% and 49% respectively – this is shown more clearly in Figure 1.6. Figure 1.6 Distance travelled to get to Studland Bay Source: Bournemouth University One question within the survey sought to ascertain why people chose Studland over other sites. The top reasons given were as follows: ‘To go for a walk’ (23%), ‘A nice day out’ (19%), ‘To relax’ (13%) and ‘To see a beautiful place’ (12%). Other reasons are detailed in Figure 1.7. Figure 1.4 Types and amounts of traffic using Sandbanks Ferry from 1997 to 2007. Source: The Bournemouth-Swanage Motor Road and Ferry Company. Figure 1.5 Method of transport used to get to Studland Bay Source: Bournemouth University Figure 1.7 Reasons for visiting Studland Bay (%) as a destination. Source: Bournemouth University The age range of respondents was very evenly spread with a small majority falling within the 55-64 yrs bracket (16%). While 22% had an income comparable to the 15 national average (which in 2007 stood at £24,000) 23% had annual incomes of over £51,000. When asked to identify their ethnicity, 97% identified themselves as white (national average of white people in the UK is 92%). Age breakdown and income can be seen more clearly in Figures 1.8 and 1.9 respectively. Figure 1.8 Age breakdown of respondents of 2006 and 2007 survey regarding Studland Bay Source: Bournemouth University within Studland which affects an SPA or SAC would require a contribution to the mitigation fund set out in the Interim Planning Framework for Dorset Heathland. Special Protected Areas (SPAs) Map 1.1 The boundaries of Studland’s SPAs Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd. Species specific to this site include: Figure 1.9 Income of respondents to 2006 and 2007 surveys regarding Studland Bay Source: Bournemouth University Planning considerations There are a number of current statutory and non-statutory environmental designations and recognitions which potentially restrict development in Studland. A comprehensive list of policy documents and legislation is listed later. Currently changes are occurring within the planning system following the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004). Regional Planning Guidance is to be replaced by a Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). The RSS which would inform this report is currently in draft. The final report will inform Purbeck’s local Development Framework, which will dictate the direction of future development in the Studland area. The most relevant environmental designations and recognitions are outlined below. Special Protected Areas (SPA), Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), Natura 2000 and Ramsar sites SPAs are shown in Map 1.1. Any development occurring Poole Harbour SPA (UK9010111) • Larus melanocephalus (Mediterranean Gull) • Limosa limosa islandica (Black tailed Godwit) • Recurvirostra avosetta (Avocet) • Sterna hirundo (Common turn) • Tadorna tadorna (Shelduck) Dorset Heath SPA (UK9010101) • Caprimulgus europaeus (Nightjar) • Circus cyaneus (Hen Harrier) • Falco columbarius (Merlin) • Lullula arborea (Woodlark) • Sylvia undata (Dartford Warbler) 16 Special Area of Conservation (SACs) Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) A total of five SSSI sites fall within the boundaries of Studland CP and are shown in Map 1.3. These are (from North to South): • Poole Harbour SSSI • Studland and Godlingston Heaths SSSI • Rempstone Heaths SSSI • Studland Cliffs SSSI • Purbeck Ridge SSSI Map 1.2 The boundaries of Studland’s SACs Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd There are two SAC designations as shown in map 1.2 within Studland: ‘Dorset Heaths (Purbeck and Wareham) and Studland’ and ‘Isle of Portland to Studland Cliffs’. The Annex I habitats and Annex II species which are the primary reason for these designations are listed below. Dorset Heaths (Purbeck and Wareham) and Studland SAC (UK0030038) • Embryonic shifting dunes • Shifting dunes along the shoreline with Ammophila arenaria (`white dunes`) • Atlantic decalcified fixed dunes (Calluno-Ulicetea) • Humid dune slacks • Oligotrophic waters containing very few minerals of sandy plains (Littorelletalia uniflorae) • Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix • Temperate Atlantic wet heaths with Erica ciliaris and Erica tetralix • European dry heaths • Depressions on peat substrates of the Rhynchosporion • Bog woodland • Coenagrion mercuriale (Southern damselfly) Isle of Portland to Studland Cliffs (UK0019861) • Vegetated sea cliffs of the Atlantic and Baltic coasts • Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies: on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) • Early gentian Gentianella anglica RAMSAR Sites Ramsar sites are wetlands of international importance designated under The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (1971). Two Ramsar sites fall within the boundaries of Studland CP: ‘Poole Harbour Ramsar Site’ and ‘Dorset Heathlands Ramsar Site’, designated in 1999 and 1998 respectively. Map 1.3 The boundaries of Studland’s SSSIs Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd Sites of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCIs) Studland sites are selected and monitored by a local partnership that is lead by the Dorset Wildlife Trust. These sites as shown in Map 1.4 are not afforded any statutory protection but are noted within the Regional Spatial Strategy and with regard to PPS9 (Biodiversity and Geological Conservation) and, as such, carry planning protection policies in Local Plans. Map 1.4 The boundaries of Studland’s SNCIs Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd 17 Conservation Verges Conservation Verges are informal recognitions of wildlife interest. Two Conservation Verges lie within Studland’s boundaries. The first runs from the toll booth on Ferry Road to just after the sewage works between Salterne and Pipely Bridge, the second lies on a local road between the B3351 and Ulwell Road. These verges have no legislation attached to them and pose negligible planning implications. National Nature Reserve (NNRs) (Studland and Godlingston Heath) Most NNRs are managed by Natural England. However, Studland and Godlingston Heath NNR is one of 88 which are wholly or partly managed by other bodies (in this instance the National Trust) under Section 35 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981. NNRs all fall with in the boundaries of SSSI therefore are afforded protection under this designation. Regionally Important Geological Sites (RIGS) Figure 1.10 Is climate change information confusing? Source: DCF questionnaire (2008) • There was confusion amongst respondents over who is responsible for coastal protection in the area. Figure 1.11 shows that over half of respondents (67%) stated that the landowner (National Trust) and/or central government (or a government department) are the responsible body. 24% listed the local council as responsible for coastal protection in the area. There is one RIG located within Studland, Agglestone Rock, a single rock located just east of Godlingston Heath. Exploring the Issues and ideas raised during the consultation process The consultation process involved a workshop held at Studland Village Hall. Further individual interviews were also conducted to gather information from professionals and interested parties unable to attend. A second workshop was held at the Purbeck District Council (PDC) planning department. Members of the general public were given the opportunity through a questionnaire distributed at the site on a number of occasions. A summary of the principal views expressed is given on the following pages. Investigating the public perspective 50 questionnaires were handed out at Knoll Beach café and the adjacent beach. The results included: • As shown in Figure 1.10, 56% of respondents indicated that they were confused by information in the media regarding climate change and sea level rise (SLR) Figure 1.11 Who the public think is responsible for coastal protection in Studland Source: DCF questionnaire (2008) • The majority of people (86%) were aware that the Studland Peninsula is at risk from SLR. Equally the majority (80%) felt that wildlife was at risk, primarily from the loss of habitat but only 16% felt that wildlife would adapt by migrating • 30% of those questioned expected Studland to be protected against SLR and flooding over the next 60 years. 54% felt this was impossible or a waste of resources. Of these, 19% were hopeful that global measures to combat climate change and SLR would be put in place. A small number (5%) expected attempts to be made to save and protect species on the peninsula • Half of the respondents felt that the current provision of car park, toilets, café and access to the beach were important for an enjoyable visit to the site. Services that are important to those interviewed are shown in Figure 1.12 18 Concerns included: construction costs; disturbance to wildlife and environmental impact; and parking problems at stations. Suggested transport alternatives included: a frequent and improved bus service or shuttle bus/land train linking with the main railway line. Visitors commented that buses were often full at peak times, which made travel by car a more attractive option. Figure 1.12 Services which are considered important for Studland. Source: DCF questionnaire (2008) • Studland was considered to be very important to the local economy. However, the majority (92%) were concerned about the adverse effects of increased visitor numbers. The concerns are shown in Figure 1.13. The top four concerns were: increase in cars leading to an increase in congestion and parking problems (34% of respondents); disturbance to wildlife and natural environment (26% of respondents); overcrowding (20% of respondents); and an increase in litter and pollution (12% of respondents). Other concerns included: an increase in boat numbers; and a loss of the ‘wilderness’ of Studland. Overcrowding was the main reason that people would not return to the site in the future (33% of respondents) Figure 1.14 How people travelled to Studland Source: DCF questionnaire (2008) Investigating the issues raised by consultees during the workshop and in individual interviews NT hunting policy Dogs Traffic congestion/ parking problems Increased development Nothing Increased cost to tourist Lack of facilities Litter/pollution Loss of wilderness Overcrowding - What would be the impacts on the ecology of the site from increased numbers of visitors? Figure 1.13 Reasons visitors may not return to the site in future. Source: DCF questionnaire (2008) • There was general concern over transport issues. It was felt that the potential loss of the ferry link would reduce visitor numbers, reduce income to the site, and increase traffic problems along the A351. The majority of respondents (80%) had travelled (see Figure 1.14) to the site by car but would be happy to use alternative forms of transport (only 12% of those travelling by car were not prepared to take alternative forms of transport). Respondents were divided over the idea of a light railway – 57% felt that it was an achievable idea and 32% felt it was not feasible (the remainder were undecided) Sand dune systems are one of the most dynamic and potentially fragile coastal habitats. The grasses that cover the dunes cannot withstand excessive trampling as this will lead to grass die-off, leaving bare sand exposed, which is easily blown by the wind. This has a cumulative effect – as more sand is blown away, more becomes exposed which results in an increasing area with no vegetation cover. However, it could be argued that the footpaths created by visitors can help to introduce greater structural diversity to the dune habitats. They can also contribute towards maintaining a dynamic dune system – ideally, a dune system should have between 10-25% bare sand by area. Boardwalks and trample-resistant surfaces should be used to minimise damage to the dunes caused by an increase in visitor numbers, but there should be a presumption against introducing new materials to the site – structures should not permanently impact upon the landscape qualities of the site. Impacts from unfettered access over the dunes include: • Litter that can be mistaken for food by animals causing them harm or even death 19 • The riding of vehicles, horses and cycles can tear up the dune grassland • Fires can devastate the dune habitat • Accelerated erosion of the dunes especially the frontal dune ridges • Increase disturbance to wildlife – particularly reptiles, breeding and roosting birds - How important is the ecology of Studland Peninsula and what effects might climate change have on the ecosystems? The Studland Peninsula supports approximately 7% of the UK population of Dartford Warbler, Sylvia undata, with 130 pairs nesting on the heath. Little Sea attracts a large diversity of wintering wildfowl. Studland is one of the few locations in the UK where all six native species of reptile (adder, Vipera berus; grass snake, Natrix natrix; smooth snake, Coronella austriaca; sand lizard, Lacerta agilis; common lizard, Lacerta vivipara and slow worm, Anguis fragilis) can be found. The smooth snake and sand lizard are the UK’s most rare reptiles and are strictly protected by British and European law. Warmer waters and changes in weather systems (as predicted as a result of climate change) are likely to result in increases in algal blooms. Even if these algal blooms are harmless to humans, the aesthetic appeal of the beach and seas will be diminished. Climate change may also bring positive changes in the ecology of the peninsula. Many iconic species, e.g. Dartford warbler and sand lizard, are at the northern end of their range in Dorset, and are likely to benefit from a warmer or more Mediterranean climate. Sand lizard, Lacerta agilis (Wikipedia) 1 Channel Coast Observatory data. Studies carried out prior to 2003 indicated that the northward movement of sediment resulted in erosion at the south end of the peninsula and accretion in the central section. This no longer appears to be the case and recent data1 have shown that erosion of the central section of the peninsula is also taking place. By 2066 this northward movement of the main beach will mean that visitor access to the beach will need to be across the heath and National Nature Reserve (NNR). This would require a sensitive management with respect to fencing paths etc to avoid damage to the heath and the NNR. - What are the likely effects of climate change on the nature conservation designations? Studland Peninsula holds a large number of environmental designations. The maintenance of these designations will require increasing attention to detail regarding boundaries and species translocation. Without such legislative intervention, the coastline would reach a level of self-maintenance regardless. It is important to recognise that features such as headlands, lakes or harbour entrances cannot be preserved indefinitely and maintaining access to the coast must accommodate natural change. Current legislation imposes a duty of care on landowners to generally protect the environment by careful stewardship. However, the rate at which habitats are changing naturally is faster than the current legislative system can cope with. The current system can appear inflexible and there is a general acceptance amongst Statutory Nature Conservation Agencies (SNCAs) that preserving such areas in the face of long-term climate change is challenging. The NT is aware of these challenges and their future policies will need to be regularly reviewed in the light of any legislative changes. The NT is in a strong position to help forge and define new national designation policies. Managing the cultural shift from strict preservation to flexible management will be also be challenging and NGOs, government departments will have to work in close partnership to achieve consistency and compliance. It was hoped that by 2066 environmental designations will be far more perceptive with regard to boundaries being reviewed on a regular basis. 20 Recommendation: Organise meeting with Studland stakeholders, interest groups and Natural England – to allow those involved to air views and concerns and to start process to encourage the regular re-examination of boundaries There is concern that the change of European Government in 2010 may put further strain on European conservation legislation. It is likely that a number of countries will push for changes to both the EU Habitats Directive and the EU Birds Directive, as these pieces of legislation are seen by some as barriers to development. For this reason, it is extremely important that trying to ‘climate proof’ the European designations does not weaken them, though climate change and SLR must be taken into account. It is important to note that relaxing the rules regarding boundaries could help the NT to get permission to relocate its buildings at Knoll Beach. The dune-building processes are still active and have resulted in the formation of acidic humid dune slack communities with a high water table, which lie in the parallel hollows between the dune ridges. In these slacks, acidic fen and reedbeds have developed. The dune slacks are linked to Little Sea – a shallow lake formed approximately 500 years ago as a body of seawater became landlocked by the growing dunes. Little Sea is now freshwater, and is replenished by acidic, oligotrophic (low primary productivity and low nutrient levels) water draining off the adjacent heathland, which then flows through the dune slacks and into the sea. The Little Sea is a particularly difficult feature to ‘roll back ’2 and by 2066 it is likely that the lake will have become increasingly saline aggravated by an increase in SLR. Therefore its ecology will have changed substantially. - How can we account for the habitat lost? Studland habitats are complex and comprises dune heath, saline and freshwater lagoons, and salt marsh. Dune heath is a rare habitat – within the UK there are approximately 47,000ha, and 20% of this total is at Studland. Dune heath is extremely difficult to re-create as it is impossible to engineer the natural processes that lead to the creation of the habitat. The dune system may roll-back in time. However, saline and freshwater lagoons and salt marsh cannot act in this way. If left to natural processes, over a 200year period Poole Harbour is likely to gradually migrate westwards. There is uncertainty as to how far the dune system would migrate if allowed. Due to the increased intensity of easterly winds and the loss of vegetation from the dune system, the sand is likely to become more mobile. In the first instance the mobile sand would tend to move as a sheet, and not necessarily result in the creation of more dunes. This is likely to create problems for dune wildlife. Beach replenishment at Studland may be an option to protect the dune system. Beach replenishment will be used to protect the coastline in the Bournemouth conurbation for the next 100 years. As the sand at Studland is particularly fine, the sediment dredged for the urban beach recharge scheme (that is too fine to be used for beach replenishment elsewhere along the coast) could be used for Studland. 2 Dune heath which will naturally migrate over time if conditions allow. However, Little Sea is a much more difficult feature to migrate. Studland dunes Habitat protection legislation currently dictates that habitat loss must be mitigated. A commonly suggested option is to re-create habitat as close as possible to the site that was lost. Though, in practice, this could be some considerable distance from the original site. In the case of dune heath, the closest areas to Studland are on the Gower peninsula in Wales, or the coast of Brittany in France. - Is there likely to be increased visitor pressure on the site? With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the south coast and west country tourist industries are set to expand. Studland currently receives approximately 1million visitors per year, though the scenario predicts 21 in excess of 2million visitors on an annual basis. The Studland Peninsula would be unlikely to cope with increased visitor pressure on a site reduced in area as a result of heavy erosion. The highest motivations for a visit to Purbeck are scenery, countryside, natural history, the seaside, beaches and the coast with the most preferred activity is coastal walking (84% of respondents). It is possible that the current interest in heathland and nature conservation will increase – Studland’s heath may therefore become more popular than the beaches. Over the last few decades there has been a shift from visitors on a two-week staying holiday towards day visitors. This group is not confined to school or main summer holidays and have the flexibility to visit Studland throughout the year. Also there is a more active ‘over 60s’ population. As a result of increased day trips the last 25 years have seen a reduction of 50% in the number of tourist bed spaces in Swanage. There has been an increase in the numbers of visitors staying in mobile home and chalet sites and Purbeck District Council’s Tourism Strategy (currently being developed) is considering schemes to encourage visitors to increase their length of stay in the Purbeck area – one scheme involves an increase in the provision of forest chalets and log cabins. This is currently only being considered outside the AONB and Heritage Coast, though this may change as policy concerning such accommodation is developed. Recommendation: Set up a meeting with the planning department, Purbeck District Council to see if there are benefits to NT being involved in this development Bournemouth and Poole is the second largest conurbation in the south west – a population of 383,713 at the 2001 census (Office for National Statistics, census data). This means that Studland’s beaches have a large population in close proximity. Whilst urban beaches such as Bournemouth have great appeal, large numbers of people tend to favour the ‘wilderness’ of Studland over urban beaches. Local studies3 have shown that the mean annual temperature in Bournemouth has risen by 1.2°C since the early 1900s. If this is extrapolated to 2066, then Bournemouth’s mean annual temperature will be 2°C warmer (12.59°C) than in 1900-1910. Such temperature increases are likely to extend the summer season at Studland. 3 Vincent May (pers. comm). - Will Health and Safety concerns affect visitor numbers to the site? The prospect of higher sea temperatures could tempt more visitors to the coast. Increasing sea temperatures around the UK coast are also likely to boost the already flourishing watersports industry (‘Bournemouth Canoes’ sell approximately £1m worth of kayaks annually, and this is increasing). This, in turn, will bring yet more visitors to Studland. Increased numbers of water users give rise to more health and safety issues including beach cleanliness, litter and the safety of individuals in the water. Warmer sea temperatures are also likely to drive changes in species composition. Currently, the marine creatures most harmful to humans (e.g. blue-ringed octopus, cone shells, box jellyfish) are typically found in tropical regions. However, increases in sea temperatures may lead to an increase in ‘harmful’ marine creatures. For this reason, the visitors of the future may expect full-time lifeguards and jellyfish nets. Recommendation: Establish a voluntary sighting scheme (possibly using existing NT volunteers) for these species and input into existing scheme(s) such as Dorset Wildlife Trust and/or Seasearch. Work in partnership to analyse data Increased annual temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns may bring about changes in the detailed ecology of shallow-water lagoons on the site. Malaria, and other vector-borne potentially life-threatening diseases which are currently restricted to warmer climates, have the potential to become more prevalent. Modelling by the World Health Organisation has shown that small temperature increases can greatly affect transmission potential – globally, temperature increases of 2-3°C would increase the number of people who, in climatic terms, are at risk of malaria by 3-5%, i.e. several hundred million. This has public health implications and impacts for Studland could include: • A possible decrease in tourism • The provision of suitable information to alert visitors 22 - What facilities are required for visitors? How can these be modified to take SLR into account? Current patterns suggest that Studland attracts several different visitor profiles: • Those who do not wish to move very far from the facilities provided (currently car parks, toilets, shops and cafés) • Visitors who prefer the wilderness and seclusion. • Walkers passing through the area • Those coming by water (boats and kayaks) In order to minimise damage to the heathland from an increase in visitor numbers, provision of some facilities (such as toilets) will be necessary. To mitigate against the effects of SLR these should be light-footprint, structures that are capable of being relocated at a later date. Example of a temporary visitor reception facility A recently completed centre can be seen in the courtyard of the Château de Versailles4 – the pavilion has been built to serve for a threeyear period and uses steel, glass and wood. The building used concrete foundations cast over a plastic film to protect the courtyard cobblestones and the financial cost totalled almost ¼2m. Piling foundations would have a minimal effect on the surrounding environment and would allow the buildings to be elevated to prolong their lifespan. Such temporary, wooden structures would be sympathetic to the local environment. Prefabricated buildings may also be an option for Studland. Adaptations such as elevated electric sockets and sealed or waterproofed floors would increase the life-span of buildings. What is now a 1 in 100 year tidal event is likely to be a 1 in 40 year event by 2066. For this reason, any infrastructure must be adapted to survive the increased chance of extreme weather events. Current visitor Centre at Knoll Beach (JCW) - What are the legislative constraints to be considered? How do these affect development proposals? Relocating buildings within the National Nature Reserve (NNR) may prove difficult as NNRs are designated under the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act (1949) as “places where wildlife comes first” and subject to strict planning restrictions. Areas of Studland that may be potential sites for relocation are: the golf course area opposite the Knoll House Hotel or the car park area at Shell Bay (as the main part of the beach is likely to move northward) are prime areas. If car parking is lost altogether there would be a serious economic impact for the NT. It is difficult to predict what changes there will be to environmental legislation as a result of SLR and climate change, and stakeholders were unwilling to allude to any potential changes. For this reason, current legislation and planning constraints have been taken into account when considering planning and development options. As areas of important habitat are lost it is possible that protection of the remaining habitat area will increase. Rainfall patterns have changed in the last 50 years. The 1990’s were much wetter than the 1950s, and recent rainfall events have become much more intense. UKCCIP projections suggest our climate will become wetter and increasingly unpredictable. If there is a gradual shift to a wetter climate, during the shoulder periods more indoor facilities will be required to attract visitors. Different market segments of visitors to National Trust sites are likely to react differently to changes in wider socio-economic conditions. Any transitional phase, e.g. an alteration in facilities provided, is likely to be challenging as people take time to adapt. A gradual 4 See http://www.vinci.com/vinci.nsf/en/site-news.htm 23 change in facility provision rather than any extreme change is preferable. It is important that this phase is well managed so as to maintain the visitor experience. Education and raising of public awareness should ease any transition. - What are the likely changes in income for the National Trust, and how can these be best managed? The current income from visitors to the site pays for a large proportion of the maintenance of the site. The loss of the car parks would dramatically reduce this income, which would mean the National Trust would struggle to meet its nature conservation objectives. Additional revenue is generated from sales at shops and cafés. However, if these facilities were reduced, then this income stream would also dwindle. Currently, in excess of 200 vehicles are able to park on Ferry Road without charge (as Ferry Road is privately owned by the Bournemouth-Swanage Motor Road and Ferry Company). This puts a great deal of visitor pressure on the site, for which there is little or no income generated. Recommendation: Approach Bournemouth-Swanage Motor Road and Ferry Company with proposal to impose parking charges on Ferry Road. National Trust to collect parking fees and to pass on an agreed percentage to Ferry Company, and to retain agreed percentage to assist with site management Solutions suggested by stakeholders included: 1. An entrance charge to the site (similar to National Parks overseas) could generate revenue. This could be difficult to enforce for visitors arriving by boat or on foot. However, a donations system (as currently operates in a number of National Trust car parks) could be considered. Donation boxes could be located at various points around the site, e.g. at the north end close to the ferry, at Knoll Beach, at Middle Beach and at South Beach. 2. A ‘tourist tax’ already operates in a number of countries, e.g. USA, France and Italy. In most cases this is usually fixed by the local authority and can be levied as an extra charge for accommodation (the cost depending upon the quality of the accommodation), or included in transport charges to the country or area. Paying to visit Paying to visit places of historical, cultural or environmental significance is becoming more commonplace and tourist charges have been brought in at a number of desirable locations around the world, such as the Inca Trail in Peru, the pyramids in Cairo and Angkor Wat in Cambodia. Revenue generated from tourist taxes is used to protect the sites and to mitigate against the adverse impacts of large numbers of visitors, e.g. in Sarasota County (Florida, USA), Tourist Development. Taxes paid on accommodation are used for beach maintenance, preservation, restoration, erosion control and capital works. 3. Improving the quality of the visitor experience would allow for an increased charge to be levied per visitor. This would allow for an overall reduction in the number of visitors whilst maintaining the income stream. There are examples in some areas of the French Alps where the number of bed spaces in the resort has been reduced, but where individual visitors are prepared to pay more because of a better quality of experience. Such ‘added value’ at Studland would be desirable, for example, a reduction in traffic congestion could suggest that the NT was trying to offer a more personalised experience to the visitor. Alternatively, other consultees felt that it was important to facilitate access and enjoyment for all rather than catering for a financial elite. Recommendation: Investigate feasibility of ‘tourist tax’ in partnership with other service providers. The World Heritage Trust is trying to establish a tourist tax and linking with them may be advantageous - What is the role of education in raising public awareness of climate change issues? Raising public awareness concerning climate change is essential. The general public are unaware of the reasons for, and implications of, SLR. Climate change must be embedded into the education system. This will increase the confidence of the next generation to channel resources to protect valuable coastal assets. Tailored education and outreach projects run by (or funded and promoted by) the National Trust should be increased. The recent NT publications, Shifting Shores could also be translated into an education workbook that sits within the National Curriculum at both junior and secondary school. 24 Recommendation: Use coastal National Trust properties as case studies for climate change and SLR. Promote these as an education resource (both for visiting groups and virtual access) – which could also provide useful information for the National Trust, e.g. visitor surveys and ecological surveys. This initiative could be carried out in partnership with the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SWCCIP) - Should the public be provided material on the management of the site? It is important to educate the public about the management of the site. Many find it difficult to comprehend the high costs involved with managing a small, ‘natural’ site. There is a general perception that any additional charges are a ‘stealth tax’. Recent plans for a tourist tax in the southwest of England met with opposition. The main fear being that it would discourage visitors to the area. However taxes on visitors that are channelled back into the management of the site or area are slowly being accepted. Recommendation: Revise information panels at key locations around the Studland Peninsula and add information to relevant pages of the National Trust website to explain how income generated from charging visitors is channelled back into site management Studland is highly regarded as an educational resource, and its reputation as an outdoor classroom for the study of climate change is likely to increase. There has been a recent emphasis on coastal management and citizenship in the curriculum, and this is likely to be beneficial for Studland. Changes in the GCSE National Curriculum due for 2009 mean that the responsibility for curriculum development will fall to individual schools. If Studland can build upon its reputation and successfully promote the site as the perfect model for investigating climate change, educational visits have the potential to increase yet further. 5 Bournemouth and Poole Daily Echo, 3rd October 2008. Recommendation: Investigate potential for delivery through the National Curriculum. The NT should look to influence local (and national) schools during their curriculum development and promote Studland as a first-class educational resource. The NT Guardianship scheme could significantly enhance this initiative - What will be the effect of SLR on the Sandbanks to Shell Bay ferry? The ferry is a strategic access link to Swanage and Purbeck and in 2007 carried approximately 860,000 vehicles and over 160,000 pedestrians on an annual basis. Generally, slipway maintenance takes place every thirty years (though this is likely to increase as a result of SLR), and the annual refit for 2008 includes essential works to both ferry slipways in order to address problems which could, in time, lead to structural failure. Refurbishment of slipways for Studland Ferry - AJF This refit is scheduled to last for eight weeks and local businesses have reported adverse effects on business. The closure of the ferry has meant that Studland receives no passing trade during this time, which accounts for 33-90% of business in the area5. Businesses in Studland have suffered from poor weather over the summer months and are dismayed that an improvement in the weather took place as the ferry service closed. The café at Knoll Beach reported a 3% drop in takings over a four-week period during the closure of the ferry and the income from National Trust car parks on the peninsula over the same period has reduced by 22%. 25 By 2066 there is likely to be more intensive slipway works, and more frequent realignment of both slipways. Currently, on spring high tides accompanied by very strong easterly winds, the ferry is unable to dock on the southern slipway. Realignment of the slipways should alleviate this. However, if the severity and frequency of autumn and winter storms increase, accompanied by accelerating SLR, then the weather window for safe operation of the ferry is likely to be reduced – thus affecting the local economy. - Would SLR affect road access to the site from a) Poole: Access to both Sandbanks and South Haven Point may also become difficult as sea level rises. The section of the B3369 (Banks Road) at Shore Road (OS grid ref. SZ048886) is particularly susceptible to flooding, and the frequency of flooding events is likely to increase. The bedrock channel at this location lies deeper than at the present Poole Harbour mouth, indicating that sometime in the past this area would have been the location of the harbour entrance. In the 1920s, it was proposed to re-cut a channel at the harbour entrance. If such a proposal were to be reconsidered it is likely to be met with a great deal of resistance, though in engineering terms this proposal is achievable. It was suggested that a budget of approximately £150m would allow the new harbour mouth at Shore Road to be stabilised, and a bridge constructed to link both sides of the harbour. Example of stabilising a harbour entrance On Australia’s Gold Coast two training walls totalling 1km in length were constructed through a spit as part of the Gold Coast Seaway. This stabilised the entrance for both commercial and recreational boats and has been hailed a success. http://www.coastalmanagement.com.au/papers/ ICCE2000-ience.pdf b) Purbeck: The section of the B3369 (Ferry Road) between OS grid refs. SZ024850 and SZ028855 are likely to be breached as a result of SLR. If there were no intervention then the only access to the Studland Peninsula will be directly by boat from the conurbation, or by road via the A351. Having just one road link into the Studland Peninsula is likely to be deemed unacceptable. - How can access to Studland be best managed? Addressing transport issues was expressed as being key to managing the access to the site. The shift in visitors from long-stay to day-trippers adds to the traffic problems already experienced at Studland. The solution is likely to be a combination of the approaches discussed below: Car travel It is probable that car travel will continue to increase. Local roads are already saturated at certain times, with no other transport provision to Studland and Purbeck. The A351 (from the Baker’s Arms roundabout to Wareham) is already saturated at peak times. This problem is made worse during the summer season, which puts added pressure on the Sandbanks to Shell Bay ferry link. The main car park at Knoll Beach (850 cars) is particularly vulnerable to SLR and, relocating this car park within the NNR currently presents problems. By locating car parks off-site the National Trust would not benefit from any revenue generated, e.g. the private car park arrangements at Giant’s Causeway. A possible solution could be a ‘park and ride’ scheme operated by the National Trust, with a car park some distance from the site owned and managed by the National Trust (or leased from a third party). The ‘Park and Ride’ already in existence at Norden is a possible location. French example of advanced visitor management At Mont Saint-Michel in Normandy, France, a ¼164million project is underway to improve the tourist experience for the 3million annual visitors. This includes relocating the car parks, removing the causeway and replacing with a 1km long pedestrian bridge and monorail to provide access to the island. http://www.projetmontsaintmichel.fr/en/ Recommendation: Gather information regarding costs on projects and schemes further a field, especially those which have developed transport schemes that do not rely on car travel It will be difficult to operate a fully effective transport system to Studland as visitors will still continue to drive if the option is available. A reduction in the number of car parking spaces provided is initially likely to put added pressure on the site. 26 Any increase in parking on the B3369 (Ferry Road) will increase the numbers of people accessing the beach across the heathland, and not at controlled points. A long-term aim could be to purchase Ferry Road. This would require a consortium to be set up (including Purbeck District Council and the National Trust) to work to acquire the stretch of road. This would allow for more effective control of parking and transport, e.g. charging visitors to park on Ferry Road or to ban parking entirely. As Ferry Road currently divides the nature reserve, the Statutory Nature Conservation Agencies are likely to support any proposals that allow the road to become a more integral part of the nature reserve and to allow those travelling on the road to better appreciate the ambience of the area. refurbishment, so the intention is to open this up to tender for any companies wishing to run a service. Including a scheduled stop at Studland would be attractive both for operators and potential passengers. A potential location for a jetty or pontoon is Shell Bay as the training bank could provide a sheltered berth (relevant consents must be obtained from the Crown Estate and the Marine and Fisheries Agency for such a construction). Rail travel There is an intention to fully re-connect Swanage Railway to the mainline in 2012. If trains run frequently, then this could help in reducing vehicle traffic into and out of Purbeck. The mainline railway runs through the heart of the Bournemouth/Poole conurbation and is grossly underused. If ‘local shuttles’ were operated by South West Trains on the mainline from Wareham to Christchurch (which were timetabled to run between the long-distance services) this could remove a great deal of the east-west vehicle journeys in the conurbation. In future, it may be possible that these shuttles could continue to Swanage or to Norden. - What are the consequences of limiting access to Studland beaches Recommendation: Any proposals for transportation to Studland needs to look at the wider picture – improving rail links need to go hand in hand with a way of getting visitors on to Studland Boat travel Access to the site from the water should also be considered as it is important to explore possibilities for both private craft and commercial ferries. There are approximately 3,500 swinging moorings in Poole Harbour. Provision of moorings at Studland for visiting boats (day visitors only) could generate extra revenue for the National Trust from moorings. A block lease or licence would need to be sought from the Crown Estate for the right to lay floating moorings off Studland. It is also important to educate boat users regarding mooring at Studland. Over the summer season (usually from Easter until the October half-term break), regular ferry services run from Bournemouth Pier to Poole, Brownsea Island, Swanage and the Isle of Wight. Bournemouth Council is keen to extend this service to Boscombe Pier and possibly Christchurch. However, the landing stages at Boscombe Pier will require an approximately £1m Recommendation: A feasibility study is required to establish potential location(s) for jetty, costs involved, likely demand for the service Reducing access to Studland presupposes a reduction in visitor numbers. Parks Canada Parks Canada is currently debating a change, which would see a dramatic reduction in the maintenance of the roads within National Parks. The intention is to make vehicle access difficult, and in doing so reduce the numbers of visitors. In time, this would largely restrict access to those who own off-road vehicles. However, this proposal is difficult to rationalise against the organisation’s charter, which promotes fairness and respect. A charge to enter the site by vehicle could be levied in Studland Village. In the past, the ferry toll was collected in Studland Village. This charge reduced the problem of overnight parking on the B3369 (Ferry Road). - Is a light railway service a feasible option? An innovative transport scheme is certainly required for Studland. An improvement in public transport provision would allow for greater control over visitor access points. Forms of transport can become tourist attractions in their own right, e.g. a monorail constructed in Oregon, US, to transport students to a University building located at the top of a hill, soon became a tourist attraction which generated an extra, and unexpected, income stream. A light railway linking with the line at Norden, and the mainline railway southwest of Wareham, could combine with the ‘park and ride’ scheme discussed earlier. The cost of light rail construction varies widely, largely depending on the amount of tunnelling and elevated structures required. 27 North American Light railway A survey of North American light rail projects showed that costs of most light rail systems range from $15million per mile to over $100million per mile (Status of North American Light Rail Projects, 2002). Climate change is likely to play an increasingly important role in both public and private investment opportunities. Linking Purbeck to the national rail network could attract European funding, and the proposal may also be attractive to private investors and entrepreneurs. The visitor experience could begin when the visitor joins the train with the provision of interpretive materials and information regarding the site. Depending upon the proposed route of the light railway, the journey is likely to pass through a number of different habitats, and different views that can all be used to enhance the visitor experience. The railway could also be used to regulate access to parts of the site, i.e. by considered location of stations and stops, and also to allow visitors to view otherwise inaccessible locations from the confines of the carriage. Also the capacity to carry freight would reduce the number of HGVs using the B3351 from Norden. Problems are likely to be encountered at the planning stage as the route of the railway will run over designated heathland. It is unlikely that any proposal for development within this designated area would be acceptable under current legislation. Norden is seen as key to the sustainable short-term accessibility of Studland. The Dorset AONB and Purbeck Heritage teams are working to develop Norden as the western gateway to Studland. Norden has the potential to act as the ‘Park and Ride’ area to serve Studland. Purbeck District Council is exploring the potential for expansion at Norden, as any further development must not be visible from Corfe Castle. A shuttle bus or road train service could link Norden with the Studland Peninsula, though this is unlikely to be effective unless the alterations to Ferry Road suggested above are tackled in tandem. If the predictions in the scenario are correct, then much larger problems are likely to occur as a result of the mainline railway being flooded around the northwestern side of Poole Harbour (close to Holton Heath and Lytchett Bay). The mainline at Southampton is also likely to be badly affected. Larger potential infrastructure problems must therefore be taken into account when drawing up a local transport plan. - How can virtual access technologies be used to facilitate remote visitor access? A consultee suggestion was made that greater consideration should be given to using virtual access technologies such as the internet as an option to allow visitors to enjoy Studland. Other considerations would include the use of webcams to study and monitor the wildlife and sea state, mobile phones and ipods. Such innovative technologies would not only enhance the visitor experience by providing up-to-date and interesting information but would also project the image of the NT as an innovative and inclusive organisation. If this is to a consideration then it is important to build in the costs for maintaining these so that they are always up-to-date. - Is it likely that visitors will travel large distances to the site using public transport? Society has become so accustomed to the freedom of personal transport that any proposals to restrict the use of private vehicles are likely to be met with strong opposition. The stakeholders felt that a decline in the volume of personal transport by the time of the scenario was extremely unlikely. The results of the most recent National Travel Survey (Department for Transport, 2006) showed that the proportion of households in Great Britain without access to a car fell to 25%, and the proportion of households with two or more cars rose to 32%. People in households with access to a car also make more trips per year and travel further than those without access. 70% of the total annual leisure trips (including holidays and day trips) were made using the car. Though increases in the price of oil and road tax are likely to alter these figures somewhat, such a dependence on personal transport necessitates a need for full recognition. Coastal boating is a feasible public transport option (though very weather dependent). Over 30 boats currently operate pleasure trips or a water taxi service along the Jurassic Coast, and this number is increasing. Poole Tourism is investigating the development of a water taxi service linking Boscombe, Bournemouth and Poole – this could conceivably be extended to include access to Studland. Recommendation: Work closely with Poole Tourism to extend proposed water taxi service to include Studland 28 Recommendation: Liaise with transportation sub-group of Dorset Working Group for 2012 Olympics to assess possibilities for waterborne transport - What are the other ways that people will access the site? Kayaking and recreational boating are becoming increasingly popular. Over 4 million adults take part in some form of boating activity around the coast of the UK, and almost 1.5 million of these are in the south and southeast of the country (British Marine Federation, 2007). Kayaking is generally viewed as a benign and low impact activity. However, an increase in visitors arriving using this form of transport could reduce income and lead to management problems such as an increase in wild camping on the beach, dunes and heath. - What are the issues surrounding archaeological and historical sites on the peninsula? There were over 60 sites on the Studland Peninsula relating to the defence of Great Britain during World War II (WWII). The majority of the buildings have been removed. However, a number of sites are preserved, and these include Fort Henry – a military observation bunker built in 1943 for assault training exercises. Fort Henry sits atop Redend Point (OS grid ref. SZ038829) and is the largest and strongest observation post to be built in Britain. Behind Fort Henry stands an earlier gun emplacement (c.1940), built before the Battle of Britain. Importance of Fort Henry In 1940, the coastline of Studland Bay was one of the two stretches of Dorset coast where a German invasion was considered most likely. It was fortified as part of the British anti-invasion preparations of WWII, and the village and beach were used as a training area before the D-Day landings. Fort Henry is considered one of Britain’s most important relics of WWII. Fort Henry Observation Bunker (JCW) With SLR and increasing coastal erosion, the proximity of Fort Henry to the cliff edge gives cause for concern. The current revision of the Shoreline Management Plan for Studland Bay will be addressing this issue. Recommendation: Explore and discuss management options and funding with English Heritage. Link to Dorset County Council Historic Environment Team The ‘Studland Circles’ found to the western side of Ferry Road (centred around grid ref. SZ028857) may also be at risk from SLR. These structures are believed to have been constructed ~700AD and consist of circular earth banks with the centre hollowed out. The purpose of the circles is unknown, though they are believed to be linked to some kind of industrial process. English Heritage is currently undertaking a national project of Rapid Coastal Zone Assessment (RCZA) Surveys. This project is looking at a 1km zone around the coast of the UK and aims to record all pieces of archaeology and heritage in this zone. In early 2009 the Environment Agency will release erosion risk maps for the coast of the UK. The English Heritage project then intends to overlay these maps with the mapped archaeology and heritage, and to then assess the risk to any specific feature. Policy will then be developed and decisions made on a case-by-case basis. Various options available will depend upon funding but include: protection of the site/building; movement or relocation of the site/building; or recording and allowing the site/building to be lost to the sea. 29 Recommendation: Initiate dialogue with English Heritage to ensure the National Trust are aware of when RCZA surveys are taking place for Studland Recommendation: Use volunteers to undertake ‘walk over’ surveys to assess relative importance of archaeology and built heritage on the peninsula The gaps in our knowledge identified during the consultation process… There were a number of other points raised by individuals during the consultation process which are perhaps more difficult to answer. However, the following require consideration when formulating new policies and directives. • There is still uncertainty regarding the rate and acceleration of SLR, especially on a local level Recommendation: Work in partnership with World Heritage, Channel Coast Observatory, Purbeck District Council and SMP team to agree a monitoring programme. This will provide up-to-date and regular data at a shared cost • What will be the effects of the likely change in direction of prevailing weather conditions (from south-westerly to south-easterly)? A more detailed analysis is required • Studland currently has a small tidal range. Investigations into whether increases in SLR will lead to increases in tidal range • How will breaches through the peninsula into Poole Harbour affect sedimentary processes and the shipping channel? • Is beach replenishment at Studland a realistic option in terms of coastal management? • How can optimum levels of investment on coast defence (in terms of cost/benefit) be calculated over extended time periods? • What coastal defences could be realistically constructed to protect the Sandbanks Peninsula? What effects would this have on the Studland Peninsula? • The appeal of the Sandbanks peninsula is the views from the area – including Studland. How can this ever-increasing popularity and wealth be harnessed for the benefit of Studland? • Is a Poole Harbour barrage (to control water movement into and out of the harbour) a possibility? Would this allow for re-creation of habitat within the harbour to account for that lost on the eastern side of Studland? Recommendation: Examine, alongside other partners other areas where tidal barrages have been put in place to see if this would be a feasible option for consideration • How far are visitors prepared to walk from car parks and facilities to explore? How is this likely to affect visitor management? Recommendation: Include such questions in future National Trust visitor surveys to ensure up to date data is recorded What are the main statutory instruments and policy guidance notes that relate to this scenario? International • Agenda 21 (commitment of Member States to integrated coastal management and sustainable development of coastal areas under their jurisdiction) • Ramsar Convention (International Wetland Conference 1972) • The Convention on Biological Diversity (RIO Earth Summit 1992) • World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development 2002) European Union Legislation • EC Bathing Waters Directive (76/160/EEC) • EC Directive on the Conservation of Wild Birds (79/409/EEC) • EC Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) • EC Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) • Natura 2000 30 National Legislation • Coast Protection Act 1949 • Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 • Environment Act 1995 • Housing Act 2004 • Marine Act (Forthcoming) • National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 • Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act 2006 • Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) Act 1990 • Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 • Protection of Wrecks Act 1973 • Town and County Planning Act 1990 • Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 Useful websites National Policy • PPS 1: Delivering Sustainable Development • PPS 3: Housing • PPS 7: Sustainable Development in Rural Areas • PPS 9: Biodiversity and Geological Conservation • PPS 10: Planning for Sustainable Waste http://www.lrta.org/ - Light Rail Transit Authority Management • PPS 11: Regional Spatial Strategy • PPS 12: Local Spatial Planning • PPG 20: Coastal Development • PPS 23: Planning and Pollution Control • PPS 25: Development and Flood Risk • UK Biodiversity Action Plan (1994) http://www.britishmarine.co.uk/upload_pub/ Watersports_and_leisure_Omnibus07.pdf - BMF Watersports and Leisure Participation Report 2007 Regional and Local Policy Guidance • Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty Management Plan • Dorset and East Devon Coast World Heritage Site Management Plan • Interim Planning Framework for Dorset Heathland • Poole and Christchurch Bay SMP1 and forthcoming SMP2 • Purbeck District Local Development Framework • Purbeck Local Biodiversity Action Plan • Southwest Regional Spatial Strategy • Poole Harbour Aquatic Management Plan http://www.vinci.com/vinci.nsf/en/site-news.htm Temporary visitor reception building at the Château de Versailles http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/ en/index8.html - WHO climate change and human health report http://www.phc.co.uk/index.htm - Poole Harbour Commissioners http://www.griffith.edu.au/centre/gccm/gcsmp/ content_gcsmp.html http://www.griffith.edu.au/centre/gccm/gcsmp/Info7.pdf http://www.coastalmanagement.com.au/papers/ ICCE2000-ience.pdf - Australia’s Gold Coast beach protection strategy http://www.projetmontsaintmichel.fr/en/ - Mont SaintMichel Project http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/ datatablespublications/personal/mainresults/ Department for Transport National Travel Surveys http://www.phc.co.uk/ 8%20Coastal%20and%20Terrestrial%20Ecology%20(Te xt%20only)%20127%20kb.pdf - Ecology of Dorset Heaths http://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/online_delivery/ntslf/ British Oceanographic Data Centre, UK Tide Gauge Network 31 Executive summary – Brownsea scenario What we set out to do: To explore a possible but realistic future scenario where sea level rise is increasing dramatically in an area of the south coast popular with tourists, to examine which areas might be lost, what may happen to the existing coastal defence schemes, and to explore the concerns and local issues that might surround such a situation. How we went about it: A detailed desktop study allowed the scenario to be scoped and structured. The scenario was then further developed in collaboration with the National Trust Property Manager for the site. Two workshops and subsequent individual interviews allowed for effective engagement with stakeholders and interested parties. A structured questionnaire was used to gather public opinion. What were the main observations made? Climate change is already affecting the ecology of Poole Harbour and Brownsea Island, and this is likely to continue. Species at the northern end of their range are likely to benefit from a more Mediterranean climate. However, increasingly stormy winters may displace important bird species such as avocet, blacktailed godwit and common shelduck. Addressing the problems associated with the buildings on the quayside at the eastern end of the island is a priority. Further investigation is required before a solution is found, but it is likely to be a combination of adaptation to sea level rise, improvements to sea defences and relocation of some buildings. Factors beyond the control of the National Trust (such as coastal defence decisions relating to Poole Harbour taken by the local authorities) are likely to have an influence on the future of Brownsea, and it is important to consider these when planning for the future. Brownsea is seen as a place to connect with nature and escape from the trappings of the 21st century. This is an important consideration when investigating future development options, as over-development and a loss of the peace and tranquillity are likely to discourage future visitors. What are the main knowledge gaps? Tide level and bathymetric information is regularly collected for Poole Harbour1. However, how these variables will modify with increasing sea level is currently unclear. Recommendation: liaise with Poole Harbour Commissioners to share information. With regard to guidance on planning for climate change it is important that the revision of PPG20 addresses the issues – feeding in to the consultation process is extremely important. It should be noted that a supplement to PPS1 ‘Planning of Climate Change’ (2007) already addresses this guidance need. An exhaustive inventory of all species present on and around Brownsea Island along with their local, national and international importance and the potential impacts of climate change on these populations would be extremely beneficial for the scenario process. It is likely that changes to environmental designations and related legislation will be made to take account of climate change and sea level rise. These will have an impact on future planning proposals. 1 See Poole Harbour Approach Channel Deepening and Beneficial Use of Dredged Material, Poole Harbour Commissioners, 2004. 32 Brownsea scenario The year is 2058… Predictions from the early 21st century suggesting that summer temperatures in southern England were likely to become more ‘Mediterranean’ as the century progressed, have proved to be correct. Visitor numbers to south coast resorts have increased significantly in the last 15 years. This is partly due to the longer, hotter summers, but is also influenced by the national air travel restrictions that are now in place. The Scenario Brownsea Island continues to be a popular visitor attraction, partly due to its island status but also because the ambience of Poole Harbour has been the subject of much care and attention. The Port of Poole can now accommodate a number of the smaller European and Baltic cruise liners, but the area still appeals to casual visitors and birdwatchers. The number of Europeans that travel by train and take their holidays on the south coast increased considerably in the 2040s, though this is now beginning to decrease. There has also been a cultural shift and a resurgence of English pride that suggests that taking holidays overseas is less socially acceptable than enjoying the delights of the coast and countryside on our doorstep. The increased severity of Channel storms has had very little impact on the sheltered location of Brownsea Island. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about sea level rise (SLR). Local sea levels are now approaching 70cm higher than they were 50 years ago. National Trust properties on Brownsea Island had remedial and refurbishment works carried out in 2011, 2028 and 2044. Building surveys in the first quarter of the century showed that the buildings were structurally sound, but that the cost of protecting them against the continually encroaching sea was prohibitive and unsustainable. The holiday cottages are now closed and the seafront buildings are coming to the end of their useful life. The old visitor reception and catering facilities are to be relocated, though they will remain close to Brownsea Castle. A new landing quay is also long overdue. The current quay has been repaired a number of times but must now be totally replaced to accommodate SLR and the increase in visitor numbers. Brownsea Island was designated a ‘Green Oasis’ in 2055 for its two rare ‘ecoscapes’ of Island Heath and Island Oak Woodland. This European designation was set up in 2052 to replace all previous designations (SSSI, SAC, AONB, Ramsar etc.) and sets strict standards for the monitoring and conservation of natural landscapes, seascapes and wildlife. There are major concerns regarding the ingress of saline water under the island and the effect this will have on the soils, and the flora they can support. The lagoon at St. Andrew’s Bay still exists, though the breakwaters are very dilapidated and the cost of replacing them is prohibitive for the National Trust. The value of the lagoon for migratory birds cannot be underestimated, so efforts to source funding from a number of international wildlife agencies are currently underway. The red squirrel colony still survives on the island, despite a serious bacterial epidemic in 2041 that threatened to wipe out the colony. The infection is thought to have been introduced by visitors feeding the squirrels. Food quarantine rules are now in place for visitors to the island and regular monitoring of the squirrels is undertaken by the National Trust. National Trust staff are concerned that the visitor carrying capacity of the island has already been reached and feel it is necessary to limit the number of day visitors to the island to prevent adverse impacts on the wildlife. However, local businesses realise that Brownsea Island is a major economic asset and are keen to see more visitors attracted to the island. Summary of the scenario findings • It is important to consider external factors, such as geomorphology and economic policy in Poole and Christchurch Bays, as these will have impacts on Poole Harbour and Brownsea Island. Influential coastal defence decisions (being drawn up in SMP2) are being made along the coast that will influence the future of Brownsea, e.g. Bournemouth Borough Council are intending to continue beach replenishment in the conurbation for the next 100 years. Estuarine and enclosed waters are being considered for the first time 33 Background information (2008) • With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the length of the summer season is likely to increase, leading to an increase in visitor pressure on the island. This will require improved management and potentially a restriction on visitor numbers (daily, monthly or seasonally) to prevent damage to habitats and disturbance to wildlife Brownsea Island covers 203 hectares and is the largest of eight islands in Poole Harbour, the perimeter is some 6km. The island is owned by the National Trust who lease Branksea Castle and related gardens to the John Lewis Partnership. The northern half of the island is leased to Dorset Wildlife Trust (see Box 1 for a brief history of land use on Brownsea). The DWT lease covers 40% of the whole land area. • Addressing the problems regarding the buildings on the quayside at the eastern end of the island should be a priority. Buying time to allow for well-informed decisions to be made is important. Options include adapting the current buildings to withstand some degree of flooding, steepening the beach and improving sea defences in front of the buildings, constructing a splash wall, and relocating the main buildings some distance inland. All options have pros and cons and it is likely that the acceptable outcome comprises a combination of these three options • Ideas for managing visitor access to the island are already being developed by external bodies such as Poole Tourism, therefore liaison with such groups is important. Improving landing provision at the eastern end of the island or developing another access point for the island may be necessary to cope with SLR and increased visitor numbers. The foreshore adjacent to Pottery Pier does afford more shelter from Easterly storms • With no human intervention, the sea wall surrounding the lagoon is not sustainable. The lagoon is not a natural feature but was constructed in the mid-nineteenth century. The wall will be over-topped in time, and this will drastically alter the lagoon environment. Effectively protecting the lagoon is likely to be expensive and unlikely to pass the required sustainability tests • Climate change is likely to affect the ecology of Poole harbour and Brownsea Island. Many iconic species (such as Dartford Warbler, Sylvia undata, and Sand Lizard, Lacerta agilis) are at the northern end of their range in this area. For this reason, such species are likely to benefit from a warmer or more Mediterranean climate. These and other southern species (such as avocet, Mediterranean Gull and Spoonbill, Platalea leucorodia) are likely to become more common Map 2.0 Map of Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd This island supports a wide range of habitats including heathland, grassland, pine and broadleaf woodland, fresh water lakes, mud flat, salt marsh and a large brackish lagoon. These habitats support an equally diverse floral and faunal community. Brownsea Island supports a healthy population of red squirrel, Sika deer, and over 23 species of dragon fly. There are over 230 species of moths and butterflies recorded here. The brackish lagoon is utilised by waders; Avocet, Sandwich Tern, Little Egrets and Shelduck are commonly sited at this location. Brownsea is accessible only by watercraft therefore the scope of the background study is larger than the island alone. The island is serviced by three ferry companies which depart from Poole, Sandbanks, Swanage and Bournemouth. Poole is the most heavily used route, followed by Sandbanks. For this reason, these two areas will be included within the scope of this chapter. Key variables identified within this study include: tourism, land use and access. This section will give a brief breakdown of current data and information available on these variables. Population The population of Brownsea in 2008 stands at 34 permanent residents, all of whom live and work on the island. Between March and October a further 22 seasonal staff live on the island. The residents are a mix of National Trust, John Lewis and Dorset Wildlife Trust employees. 34 Access Entry points to the island are minimal. The majority of visitors arrive on the island using one of three available ferry companies; Greenslade Pleasure Boats (GSPB), Dorset Cruises (DC) and Brownsea Island Ferries Ltd (BSIF) at varying costs and from varying locations (Table 2.0). Table 2.0 Costs and Locations of ferry crossings to Brownsea (2008) Sources: Brownsea Island Ferries Ltd, Greenslade Pleasure Boats and Dorset Cruises. Child (£) Adult (£) Snr (£) Family (£) 7.00 13.50/ 21.50 7.00 13.50/ 21.50 - 9.00/ 16.00 - 8.00/ 12.50 - 18.00/ 10.50 Poole Quay GSPB BSIF 5.50 5.50 8.00 8.00 Swanage DC 2.00 7.00 Sandbanks BSIF 3.50 4.50 Table 2.2 Car Parking close to the Studland-Brownsea Ferry. Source: Pooletourism.com Location Number of spaces Sandbanks 550 Banks Road (on street parking) 350 Shore Road 72 Shore Road (on street parking) 12 Tourism For Brownsea, the National Trust relies heavily on tourism as the primary source of income and with the all the visitors arriving by boat, numbers can be closely monitored. Bournemouth University carry out annual visitor surveys on the island. The data from these surveys, along with information gained from National Trust employees are the main sources of information for the following analysis. Brownsea attracts approximately 100,000 visitors per year. Two of the three ferry companies that service Brownsea do not record information relating to passenger numbers therefore the data in Figure 2.0 (representing annual visitor numbers) are derived solely from the National Trust. The light blue line in Figure 2.0 depicts a mean trend line in visitor numbers. Table 2.1 Car parking close to Poole Quay. Source: Pooletourism.com Location Number of spaces Quay Visitors (multi-storey) 550 Prosperous Street 10 New Orchard 19 Harbourside Park1 205 Harbourside Park2 199 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Poole can be accessed by the A35 and the A350 from the west, the A338 from the North and the A31 from the east, linking it well with surrounding cities including London, Southampton and Bristol. Sandbanks is accessed via the B3365 and B3065 from the A35. Parking facilities are provided throughout Poole and Sandbanks, details of the nearest Parking to access points to Brownsea Island are outlined in tables 2.1 and 2.2 1999 Poole Quay is 1.3 miles away from Poole Train Station and 1.1 miles away from Poole’s well-serviced bus station. A shuttle bus travels between the Quay and these stations every 15 minutes. It is these services that form an integral part of the visitor journey to the island. 1998 7.50 1997 3 1996 DC Annual visitors numbers B’mouth Figure 2.0 The number of visitors to Brownsea Island from 1996 to 2007.Source: National Trust The recorded maximum number of daily visitors to date stands at approximately 1800. There is no official carrying capacity with regard to visitor numbers and the National Trust feel that present levels are manageable. Results derived from the surveys suggest that the majority of people visit Brownsea Island from holiday accommodation (48%) or from home (37%) on average over the three surveyed years (Figure 2.1) and the majority travelled by car/campervan (60%). The anomaly within Figure 2.2 is due to an alteration to this question in 2007. In previous years respondents were asked to give only one method of transport. In 2007 this became a multiple answer question in which visitor were asked to tick all main methods of transport used. Therefore this data is not directly comparable. 35 Figure 2.0 Where visitors travelled from on the day they visited Brownsea.Source: Bournemouth University The level of car use prior to visiting the island illustrates the reliance on the accommodation, transport links and parking capacity of the surrounding areas, (especially those within 14 miles) as 64% of visitors travelled from within this radius. Figure 2.2 indicated the method of transport used over 3 years. Figure 2.3 shows why people visited Brownsea Island Source: Bournemouth University Figure 2.2 Methods of transport used to get to Brownsea Island in 2005-2007 (%). Source: Bournemouth University The reasons given for choosing to visit Brownsea varied. Almost half of those surveyed (48%) visited Brownsea because it is a ‘beautiful place’ and provided a ‘nice day out’ and 29% wanted to ‘walk’ and to ‘enjoy the peace and quiet’. The remaining options in this question were chosen by less than 6% of respondents and are shown in Figure 2.3 There were no questions to determine whether people visited specifically for the wildlife or nature reserve. The majority of respondents, 82%, had visited Brownsea within the last year, with only 4% visiting for the first time. The age of people visiting Brownsea in 2006 and 2007 is shown in Figure 2.4. 43% of respondents were over 55. Recommendation: Further develop strategies to attract more young people to Brownsea. Carry out a desktop study to find all the Dorset related education strategies and seek out the common themes. e.g. link to the World Heritage education strategy Recommendation: Include ‘wildlife’ as a category in future surveys. Remove ‘a nice day out’ as a category as this catch-all answer provides little useful information Figure 2.4 Age Breakdown of Visitors to Brownsea: 2006 and 2007 (%) Source: Bournemouth University 36 The income of those visiting Brownsea ranged from £0 to over £51,000 with the most common income bracket being between £11,000 and £30,000 per annum (current national average is £24,000). When asked to identify their ethnicity, 97% identified themselves as white (national average is 92% white). Special Protection Areas (SPA), Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Natura 2000 sites Map 2.1 shows the SPA designation for Brownsea Island. Figure 2.5 The Income of Visitors to Brownsea in 2006 and 2007 (%) Source: Bournemouth University When considering future investment in the island it is accepted that large sums will have to be allocated simply to make the infrastructure safe and usable because sea level rise is inevitably going to reduce the long-term viability of the quayside buildings. It would be extremely useful to know how the visitors and volunteers feel that monies should be allocated. A technique known as ‘contingent valuations’ allows questions of the type; “Would you prefer to see £xx’s spent on project ‘A’ or project ‘B’?”. Such insights might help the National Trust to allocate sums in such a way as to harmonise with public opinion and thus engender continued support. Recommendation: Consider a contingent valuation questionnaire for the visitors to Brownsea that gives a limited range of options for the quay buildings and surrounding area Planning considerations There are a number of current statutory and non-statutory environmental designations and recognitions which potentially restrict development on and around Brownsea Island. The most relevant apply to the extraordinary diversity of wildlife and geology of the area. As this report is being written changes are occurring within the planning system following the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. Regional Planning Guidance is to be replaced by a Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). The Southwest RSS is currently in draft and when completed will inform both Purbeck’s Local Development Framework (Brownsea) and Poole’s Local Development Framework (Poole, including Sandbanks). These most relevant designations and recognitions are outlined opposite. Map 2.1 Special Protection Areas on and around Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd The designation of SPAs in this area include: Poole Harbour SPA (UK9010111) • Larus melanocephalus (Mediterranean Gull) • Limosa limosa islandica (Black tailed Godwit) • Recurvirostra avosetta (Avocet) • Sterna hirundo (Common turn) • Tadorna tadorna (Shelduck) Dorset Heath SPA (UK9010101) • • • • • Caprimulgus europaeus (Nightjar) Circus cyaneus (Hen Harrier) Falco columbarius (Merlin) Lullula arborea (Woodlark) Sylvia undata (Dartford Warbler) Special Areas of Conservation The Annex I habitats and Annex II species, which are the primary reason for the designation are listed below. The Map 2.2 shows the site designation Dorset Heaths SAC (UK0019857) • Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix (Cross-leaved Heath) • European dry heaths • Depressions on peat substrates of the Rhynchosporion • Coenagrion mercuriale (Southern damsely) 37 Map 2.4 Sites of Special Scientific Interest on and surrounding Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd With regards to Brownsea less than one fifth of the island is considered in ‘favourable’ condition. The remainder is classed as ‘unfavourable recovering’ and a small section to the North of the island is ‘unfavourable declining’. Map 2.2: Special Areas of Conservation on Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd Ramsar Sites Map 2.3 show the Ramsar sites which are present on and around Brownsea Island. Some examples of operations under restrictions on Brownsea include: • The introduction of grazing changes • Application of manure, fertilisers and lime • Burning • Tree/wood management • The release of any wild, feral or domestic animal, plant or seed • Mineral extraction • Recreational or other activities likely to damage features of interest A full list can be found on the Natural England website. Sites of Nature Conservation Importance (SNCI) There is no SNCI recognition on Brownsea Island, however, parts of Sandbanks (an access point to Brownsea Island) is an SNCI due to the presence of dunes and grassland with a flora rich in scarce annual species. Map 2.3 RAMSAR sites surrounding Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd The Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) The Dorset AONB covers 40% of Dorset. Brownsea represents the most easterly point of this designated area (Map 2.5). The Dorset AONB Partnership have been involved with Brownsea Island since 2003. The current draft Management Plan recognises the threat to the Island from sea level rise, increasing wave heights and coastal erosion. It also identifies Brownsea as an area where coniferous woodland coverage is decreasing and must be maintained or enhanced for wildlife (in this case the Red Squirrel population). Map 2.4 shows all the Sites of Special Scientific Interest on and surrounding Brownsea Island. The SSSI designation covers the whole of Brownsea Island. Map 2.5 Boundaries of Dorset AONB in Poole Harbour. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd 38 Regionally Important Geological Sites (RIGS) Brownsea’s RIGS include cliffs on the south shore near Pottery Pier and are shown in Map 2.6. Details can also be found at: www.dorsetrigs.org.uk. Exploring the Issues and ideas raised during the consultation process The consultation process involved a workshop held at Studland Village Hall. Further individual interviews were also conducted to gather information from professionals and interested parties unable to attend. A second workshop was held at the Purbeck District Council (PDC) planning department. Members of the general public were given the opportunity through a questionnaire distributed at the site on a number of occasions. A summary of the principal views expressed is given on the following pages. Investigating the public perspective: 50 questionnaires were handed out at various points around the island. Responses were analysed and the results are discussed below. The questionnaire used is attached as Appendix 1 Map 2.6 Regionally Important Geological Sites on Brownsea Island. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd. Land use and the history of Brownsea Henry VIII encouraged local merchants to build the first Brownsea Castle and since then both the castle and the Island have been altered accordingly to suit the needs of successive owners. Ornamental plant species have been introduced by botanists. The population of the small island grew to 200 with the discovery of china clay in the mid 1800s. 1901 saw a period of ‘unparalleled prosperity and grandeur’ which coincided with the very first Scout camp founded by Robert Baden-Powell. This prosperous period ended when Mrs Mary Bonham-Christie bought the island and halted all agriculture and hunting, allowing the island to gradually revert to heathland and forcing the remainder of the inhabitants to leave. Despite a severe heath fire in 1934, the island remained a safe haven for wildlife while the surrounding mainland became ever more populated. After the death of Mrs Mary Bonham-Christie the National Trust acquired Brownsea in 1962 after a fund raising campaign which raised £100,000 for the acquisition. In Figure 2.6 60% of respondents indicated that they were confused by information in the media regarding climate change and sea level rise (SLR). There was also confusion over who is responsible for coastal protection on Brownsea. 56% listed the landowner (National Trust) and/or central government (or a government department) as the responsible body. 19% listed the local Authority, 11% felt it was the responsibility of ‘everyone’, 4% listed Poole Harbour Commissioners and the remainder were unsure as to who was responsible for coastal protection in general. Figure 2.6 Bodies listed as responsible for coastal defence by public The majority (88%) of respondents were aware that Brownsea Island is at risk from SLR over the next 50 years. 8% felt that the area was not at risk whilst 4% stated they were unsure. 88% felt that wildlife was at risk, primarily from loss of habitat and food. Only 4% felt that there was no foreseeable risk to wildlife on the island. The majority of those questioned were aware of the island’s environmental designations – 27% were aware of the SSSI designation; 22% were aware of the SPA designation; 22% were aware of the Ramsar status; though 29% were not aware of any designations. 36% of those questioned expected Brownsea to be protected against SLR and flooding over the next 50 39 years. Suggestions included: Poole Harbour flood barriers; beach recharge and fixed sea defences around the island. 28% did not expect any form of protection against SLR and flooding and suggested that sea defences would be unsightly. The remainder (36%) were unsure. The main attraction of Brownsea Island was ‘wildlife’ or ‘nature’ (23%), as shown in Figure 2.7. Other attractions included: ‘peace and quiet’ (18%); red squirrels (12%); the fact that the island is ‘unspoilt’ (14%); and the ‘beauty’ and ‘scenery’ (12%). Other reasons given for visiting the island were: walks, to take a boat trip, the location, to see a theatre production and for the Famous Five (Enid Blyton) connection. 68% of respondents had visited ‘all’ or ‘most’ of the island. 20% had visited the eastern and southern parts and 12% had visited only the eastern end. 48% of those questioned felt it would be desirable to regulate visitor numbers to the island. Suggestions as to how this could be achieved included: limiting boat numbers and frequencies; encouraging advanced ticket purchase so a defined number of entry passes could be allocated per day or per session; reducing the open season or closing parts of the island; and increasing the landing charge. Another suggestion was to allow National Trust members only at certain times (though this was accompanied by the suggestion of concessions for locals and those on a low income). 40% of respondents felt that there was no need to regulate visitor numbers on the island and the remainder were undecided. When questioned about the provision of services necessary for an enjoyable visit, many respondents felt that current provisions were adequate (40%). Thirty people were asked to rank their priorities for improvements (shown in Table 2.0): Table 2.0 Suggestions for improvements relating to an enjoyable visit to Brownsea 43 café 34 beach access 28 gift shop 20 Paths and trails 11 visitor centre/information 10 access to nature reserve 4 Rycling Bins 3 Picnic areas 3 Tractor trails 1 Figure 2.9 Services considered important for an enjoyable visit Figure 2.8 Problems associated with an increase in visitor numbers Tractor trails Access to nature resrve Picnic areas Recycling bins Gift shop Well maintaned walking trails Vistors Centre/information Beach access These results are shown in Figure 2.9 bar chart: Toilets The majority of respondents (58%) felt that Brownsea Island was ‘important’ to the local economy. 20% did not feel the island was important in this context and the remainder were unsure. However, there were concerns regarding any increase in visitor numbers to the island triggered by predicted warmer and drier summers. The main problem (listed by 35% of respondents) was felt to be wildlife and habitat disturbance and also erosion. Other potential problems listed were: litter/pollution (24%); increased management required (12%); traffic problems at ferry departure points (16%); increased pressure on accommodation (6%); and increased commercialism (4%). The remainder felt there were no problems associated with an increase in visitor numbers to the island. These results are shown in Figure 2.8. Number of responses Good quality toilet facilities Cafe Figure 2.7 Reasons visitors are attracted to Brownsea Island Facilities 40 Nothing Loss of peace and quiet Litter Poor parking facilities at ferry departure Having to pre-book Overdevelopment Cost of visiting island Overcrowding The main reason given for not returning to the island was ‘overcrowding’ (15 respondents). Other reasons included: ‘cost of visiting island’ (13 respondents); ‘over-development’ (8 respondents); ‘having to prebook’ (2 respondents); ‘poor parking facilities at ferry departure point’ (2 respondents); ‘loss of peace and quiet’ (2 respondents) and ‘litter’ (1 respondent). 12 respondents would not be deterred from returning to the site at all. These results are shown in Figure 2.10. shores of Brownsea Island will have knock-on benefits for the rest of Poole Harbour. The narrow entrance to Poole Harbour funnels seawater into the harbour and towards Brownsea Island. Easterly, south-easterly and southerly gales already have a major impact on the north-eastern section of the island, and for this reason, the buildings on the quayside are particularly at risk. The sediment processes along the Sandbanks and Studland peninsulas have altered continuously over many centuries. Sandbanks is a westward trending spit, though the littoral drift is eastwards and the current process is not in equilibrium with the present shape of the coastline. It is likely that the training bank at the harbour entrance is altering sediment movement. One of the possible effects of SLR is that the training bank will cease to be effective and sediment processes, both along the coast and within the harbour, will alter. Without human intervention, this will lead to a much more variable harbour entrance, as in the past. The overall processes working in the harbour are likely to be dramatically different, and this will have impacts on erosion patterns and flooding on Brownsea. Figure 2.10 Reasons given for not returning to Brownsea Island The final question asked if the prospect of warmer, drier summers and the environmental impacts of global air travel would encourage more people to holiday in the UK. 78% would be more inclined to take UK holidays, and of these 25% said they ‘always’ or ‘mainly’ holidayed in the UK. 16% felt they would not take more UK holidays listing ‘unreliable weather’, the cost of holidaying in the UK and ‘too many other countries to visit’ as reasons. Investigating the issues raised by stakeholders during the workshops - What external factors are likely to influence erosion and coastal protection on Brownsea? Stretches of the coastline (those with no sea defences in place) are retreating at ~1m per year. With no human intervention on the Studland or Sandbanks peninsulas, in 1000 years the coastline will have receded westwards by ~1km and Brownsea Island will have been severely eroded in the north-eastern section. However, Brownsea is acting as a spending beach2 and reducing wave action within the remainder of the harbour. For this reason protecting the 2 In a wave basin (such as Poole Harbour) a spending beach is a beach on which entering waves release the majority of their energy, or are ‘spent’. A small number of waves will enter the Branksea Castle Jetty - M.Simons Steps taken to tackle flooding and coast protection issues in the Bournemouth and Poole area are likely to affect the sea area around Brownsea Island. Influential decisions are being made that will impact upon Brownsea over the next 50-100 years, e.g. Bournemouth Borough Council are intending to continue beach replenishment in the conurbation for the next 100 years. Coast protection planning needs to take a long-term view due to the natural processes involved. The functional life of sea defence structures is generally assumed to be approximately 50 years. Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) are now required inner harbour, but by bearing the brunt of the incoming wave energy, spending beaches protect other sections of the coastline. 41 to assess coastal defence options over three epochs: 0 -20, 20 -50 and 50 -100 years to allow for effective forward planning (previously these considered a 25year and then 50-year timescale). The SMP2 revision process is required to demonstrate that a more holistic approach to coastal defence is being adopted. Furthermore, SMP1 was not required to consider estuarine locations and so Poole Harbour had no previous SMP detailing. Coast protection policy for Poole and Christchurch Bays is currently ‘hold the line’ on most urban frontages, and ‘no active intervention’ elsewhere. The SMP review (SMP2) is due to be adopted in 2010. One of the strands within the Purbeck Keystone Project (led by Purbeck District Council) is to re-instate the Frome flood plains as floodwater holding areas with managed water levels. The input of fluvial gravels into the harbour is seen on the southern beaches of Brownsea and provides some degree of coastal protection. Deliberate management of the flood plain hydrology under the Keystone Project is likely to reduce sediment input into the harbour and reduce the protection provided to the southern fringes of Brownsea. The current sea defences around the perimeter of the island are generally in a ‘failed’ state of repair. Under the terms and policies of the Poole Harbour commissioners this situation is unacceptable. It is therefore a matter of urgency and navigational safety that all such failed defences are removed. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the south coast and west country tourist industries are set to expand. However, recent changes in the way tourism forecasting is undertaken mean that meaningful figures for the future are difficult to generate3. Brownsea currently receives approximately 100,000 visitors per year, and this is likely to increase by 2058. An increase in visitor numbers would require careful and enlightened management. Current trends show that tourism in the area is not as seasonal as in the past and that visitors are coming to the area throughout the year. Over the last few decades there has been a shift from visitors on an extended traditional seaside holiday towards day-trippers. The majority of visitors to Poole are day visitors, many of whom come to the area specifically to visit Brownsea Island. Day visitors are not confined to school or main holidays and have the flexibility to visit Brownsea throughout the year. Activities on Brownsea, such as woodland walks and wildlife watching, are less reliant on hot and dry weather. NT special events are already a regular feature on the island. Local climate change studies have shown that the mean annual temperature in Bournemouth has risen by 1.2ºC since the early 1900s. If this is extrapolated to 2058, then Bournemouth’s mean annual temperature is predicted to be almost 2ºC warmer (12.5ºC) than in 1900-1910. Such temperature increases are likely to extend the summer season with an anticipated reduction in seasonal tourist pressure on Brownsea. Since ferry operators running boats to the island currently struggle to break-even when operating for such a short season4, a seasonal spread into the shoulder months is likely to improve this situation. With a shift to a more Mediterranean climate, suggested alterations to school terms and a staggering of school holidays are likely to be more acceptable. This means that family summer holidays in the area are likely to be spread over a longer season, with the accompanying reduction in visitor pressure on Brownsea and the surrounding area. Failed sea defences (JCW) - Is there likely to be increased visitor pressure on the site? “I had no idea I had such a delightful spot in my kingdom” (the words of the Prince Regent following a visit to Brownsea in 1818). Brownsea continues to delight visitors and is likely to do so for many more years to come. 3 South West Tourism Research department. 4 Brownsea Island Ferries (Pers Comm). 5 From National Trust annual visitor surveys - 2005 to 2007 combined. - Why do people visit the island? Is this likely to change? Brownsea Island offers an escape from the trappings of 21st century life and the opportunities to discover nature in this unspoilt setting make Brownsea extremely attractive to groups, families and individuals alike. The main reasons for a visit to Brownsea are5: ‘ a nice day out’ (~30%); ‘to see a beautiful place’ (824%); ‘to go for a walk’ (12-19%); and ‘to enjoy the peace and quiet’ (11-15%). The island presents 42 opportunities for fine walks and spectacular views of Poole Harbour. Self-guided trails are provided for children historians and explorers. The island is a haven for animals (including red squirrels, Sciurus vulgaris, peacocks, Pavo cristatus, and Sika deer, Cervus nippon) and birds, with numerous opportunities for wildlife watching. As the birthplace of Scouting and Guiding, Brownsea is known to over 38 million scouts and guides internationally. The opening of the BadenPowell Outdoor Centre in 2008 improved provision for visiting schools, Scouts and Guides. In 50 years’ time, in the face of climate change and sea level rise, it is highly likely that Brownsea will continue to offer the majority of the attractions listed above. The footpaths and self-guided trails may require re-routing with increased maintenance. Walking and exploring will still be enjoyable pastimes. The island’s rich history (farming, pottery works, its involvement in WWII and Scouting) will continue to be appreciated. Unfortunately, the percentage of visitors attracted to the island by the wildlife cannot be determined from the National Trust annual visitor surveys. However, the 101 hectare nature reserve (leased to Dorset Wildlife Trust) which covers the north-west of the island comprises a large, sheltered lagoon (particularly important for over-wintering and summer breeding birds), flooded woodland, lakes, reed beds and pines. Information from Dorset Wildlife Trust indicates that the reserve receives approximately 12,000 visitors per year. In a society with ever-increasing constraints, it was felt to be important to maintain the freedom that Brownsea currently holds for visitors. This takes a number of different forms, from allowing children to explore the natural environment in safe surroundings to providing quiet, secluded areas where visitors can ‘just relax’. Tourism activities outside Poole Harbour are likely to have implications for activities on Brownsea, e.g. the Bournemouth surf reef in Boscombe (Europe’s first artificial surf reef and one of only four in the world) is scheduled for completion in Autumn 2009 (though completion is now possibly delayed for up to one year). A Bournemouth Borough Council Economic Impact Assessment has suggested that the reef will provide a direct income of £3 million per annum (plus an image value of £10 million per annum resulting from a variety of publications and media interest on a national scale). It is also likely to generate a large stimulus for equipment retailing, surfing schools, accommodation and food and drink outlets. A recent survey in Cornwall revealed that surfers spend on average 8% more than other holidaymakers. It is envisaged that the new surf reef will enhance trade elsewhere on the coast, for example, new hotels and restaurants. Also the 2012 Olympic sailing events will have a positive effect on visitor numbers to the whole of the Dorset coast. Buildings on quayside (JCW) - What facilities are required for visitors? How can these be protected against SLR? One of the most pressing problems regarding SLR and climate change on Brownsea is the row of buildings (offices, accommodation and visitor reception) on the quay at the eastern end of the island. The buildings at the eastern end of Brownsea Island have been rated by the Environment Agency (see picture above) as ‘flood risk level 2’ (except for Brownsea Castle which is ‘level 3’ and therefore slightly lower risk). On high spring tides coupled with easterly, south-easterly or south-westerly winds, seawater already reaches the buildings – and easterly gales, in recent years have increased in frequency. In the short-term, adaptations such as lifting the electricity cables, putting flood vents in the floor and re-flooring using sealed or waterproofed floors may delay the inevitable. However, it was suggested that such modifications are only likely to add 30 years to he working life of the buildings, and could be an expensive investment for such short-term gain. What is now a 1 in 100 year tidal event is likely to be a 1 in 40 year event in 2058. There were a number of suggestions made by the consultees and included: a sustainable way to protect the buildings in situ (in the short- to medium-term) would be to widen the beach in front of the buildings and to construct groynes to retain the sediment. Note that the quay itself is already acting as a groyne. Shingle could be added to increase the steepness of the beach and to reduce wave action. One consultee suggested that sea defences could be removed from other locations and could be re-used on Brownsea. Recommendation: This novel idea needs further investigation if to be considered seriously 43 The concrete apron that services the line of buildings is currently relatively narrow (3-4m) and offers little protection – widening of this is possible if the beach was steepened by using small-scale beach replenishment. This replenishment material could be sought from a larger scale beach recharge scheme (e.g. material dredged during the deepening of the navigation channels in Poole Harbour). A splash wall, constructed of timber or steel shuttering at the edge of the concrete apron in front of the buildings would also buy time. This wall (~75cm high) would act to break the flow of waves and reduce the wave energy reaching the buildings. Such a structure should be temporary, portable and removable and capable of being set up at short notice. Poole Harbour is unusual in that it is included in the Coast Protection Act (1949), which means that coast protection developments within the harbour are eligible for grant aid. The presence of coast protection works such as sea walls and groynes (albeit many in poor condition) may set a precedent for the future and make proposals for improved coast protection works more acceptable (though any proposals will still have to align with the SMP review currently underway) if external funding is sought. The predicted increased storminess and storm surges will increase damage caused by waves, especially on the small beach that fronts the quay buildings (see Figure 3.3). There is a small quantity of rock armour here that dissipates some of the incoming wave energy. One other practical option might be to selectively add more rock armour to protect both the beach and the concrete apron so that storm waves cannot so easily reach the foot of the buildings. Recommendation: The installation of more substantial physical sea defences in front of the quay buildings needs to be investigated Current access to the rear of the buildings is poor. Improvements here would allow for safer evacuation if ever necessary. This may be problematic as the buildings back onto the lagoon, but warrants further investigation. The buildings on the quayside at Brownsea are Grade II listed, which means consents must be sought from the local council before any alterations or repairs can take place. At the current time, English Heritage were unable to comment on whether the restrictions on listed buildings are likely to be altered to take account of SLR and climate change. However, the long-term upkeep of the buildings is unsustainable. Grants are available from English Heritage to repair listed buildings – such grants are in high demand and one stipulation is that a guaranteed level of public access is provided for a minimum of ten years after grant-aided work has been completed. Recommendation: Investigate grant aid available for the repair of listed buildings on Brownsea A combination of the buildings protection schemes discussed above may serve to maintain the current building provision for visitors whilst alternative options are investigated. A Property Management Plan for the island is currently under review. The Town Quay buildings are part of a vista that people have come to expect when they arrive on Brownsea. However, any relocation or alteration of these buildings could be used to inform the public about local SLR and climate change and the NT policies that are being developed? The majority of respondents to the questionnaire (40%) indicated that the current provision of toilets, café and gift shop were adequate for an enjoyable visit to the site. Comprehensive visitor reception facilities are required close to the main entry point. The current reception building appears to be better protected from the encroaching sea by the landing stage than the offices and accommodation – the modifications mentioned above could extend the life-span of this building. One suggestion was that the offices and accommodation buildings could eventually be re-located in or close to the old farm buildings on the southern side of Church Field. 13% of questionnaire respondents said they would be reluctant to visit if ‘over-development’ were to take place, 19% were attracted by the ‘peace and quiet’ and 11% by the ‘unspoilt’ nature of the island – so it is important to balance the visitor facilities with the maintenance of a ‘special place’. Recommendation: Consider only small-scale development and relocation of offices Sea defences at Branksea Jetty - M.Simons 44 There is currently no public access to South Shore Lodge (the building is used for Scout and Guide activities) or to the other three buildings on the southern side of the island. Whilst access to this area is difficult due to the distance from Town Quay, these buildings could provide some visitor facilities for those venturing further across the island. One respondent to the questionnaire suggested a small café or tea bar at the western end of the island would be welcomed by visitors. Re-developing Pottery Pier as an access point for the island is discussed later – if this suggestion were to be pursued, some building provision will be required at the western end of the island. Light-footprint, timber buildings with wooden piling foundations would be sympathetic to the natural environment. The sewerage system for the island is currently not adequate and needs updating, regardless of any relocation or improvements to the building provision. Maintenance and development costs are higher on Brownsea compared to the mainland, due to the difficulty in transporting construction machinery and materials to the island. Moving heavy plant around the island is also problematic especially where beach access is required. It is important to ensure that the continued attraction of Brownsea to the visitor is maintained throughout any re-development phase. - How can access to Brownsea be managed? Brownsea Island is open to the public from mid-March until the beginning of November, and this is likely to continue in line with National Trust policy. Visitor transport to and from Brownsea Island is discussed in the background section. Visitors frequently comment on the high price of the ferry crossing on both the National Trust annual surveys and the questionnaires completed as part of this project. Poole Tourism is considering the development of a water taxi service connecting Boscombe, Bournemouth and Poole. This service could feasibly be extended to include Brownsea Island and would give visitors a greater choice in accessing the island. Recommendation: Approach Poole Tourism to investigate this further The majority (>70%)6 of visitors travel by car or campervan to take the ferry to Brownsea, and only ~15% of visitors use public transport. This has 6 From National Trust annual visitor surveys - 2005 to 2007 combined. implications for traffic congestion and parking capacity at Sandbanks and areas close to Poole Quay. A shuttle bus running on environmentally friendly fuel could link key areas of the conurbation with ferry access points, and a ‘green option’ of a combined bus and boat ticket could be an incentive to take public transport and to reduce the carbon footprint of visitors. The development of circular ‘walks’ around the harbour using boats or water taxis could alleviate pressures on the roads, – especially in Purbeck. The section of the A351 from the Baker’s Arms to Wareham is already saturated at peak times year round. Stopping points for boats at, for example, Arne, Brownsea and Wareham would allow visitors a wonderful opportunity to explore the area from the water, and could operate year-round. There is the potential to develop more water-based transport from Poole and Bournemouth to parts of Purbeck within the harbour, including Brownsea. The pressing problem regarding visitor access lies in the main access point to Brownsea itself. The NT landing quay lies in typically the roughest waters around the island due to reflected wave energy from piers and jetties on the Sandbanks Peninsula and the proximity to the harbour mouth. This reflected energy also increases wave scour on this edge of Brownsea. The landing quay will require repairs and alterations to accommodate sea level rise and storminess. Any increase in visitor numbers will also require modifications to the quay to accommodate an increase in boats and ferries. Visitors are allowed to land their own boats between 10am and 8pm on the southern and western shores of the island (no landing is allowed on the northern shores which are part of the Dorset Wildlife Trust nature reserve. The eastern shores of the island are leased to the John Lewis Partnership and public access is prohibited in this area). Current National Trust policy is for no access (from the sea) to the south and west of the island. However, from a public safety point of view, the present access point to the island is somewhat unsatisfactory because of the exposed nature of this quay. Relocating the main visitor access point to Pottery Pier would allow for a much shorter, safer and more sheltered ferry trip from Poole. Boat access could be either by a new or refurbished pier or jetty, or by a floating pontoon. The regeneration of Pottery Pier faces a number of potential problems as Poole Harbour is designated a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), a Special Protected Area (SPA) and a Ramsar site. The harbour is also within an area recognised for its special landscape value – the Purbeck Heritage Coast, and part of the Dorset Area of Outstanding Natural 45 Beauty (AONB). The AONB includes all the islands of the harbour as well as much of the water area. The southern side of the harbour (south of a line from Patchins Point to South Haven Point) is also a designated quiet area with an advisory speed limit of 6 knots. This quiet area is a safe haven for birds and wildlife, as well as for humans. Pottery Pier lies just to the north of this line, so regeneration here would not be affected this designation. Brownsea Island Ferries returning to Poole Quay leave the north-east corner of Brownsea and travel around the southern side of the island, so the redevelopment of Pottery Pier for this service would reduce current traffic levels in the quiet area. A full impacts study (regarding the potential effects on the ecology) would be a necessary precursor. As a major refurbishment, the redevelopment of Pottery Pier itself would require a licence and approval from Poole Harbour Commissioners. In general, works may not take place from November to April to avoid disturbance to over-wintering birds. These suggestions may also raise problems with access from the Pier to the island for less able visitors, though these problems are not insurmountable and will be discussed further below. Re-instating landing access at the western end of the island would also require electricity for CCTV, emergency lighting etc. The lack of buildings would mean that island information and admission charges would have to be provided and collected during the ferry crossing, or at the same time as ferry tickets are paid for. This would require formal agreements with the current ferry companies, or would tie in well with the improved transport facilities to the island discussed previously. National Trust guides could be on hand to meet ferries arriving at Pottery Pier and offer information for visitors. If Pottery Pier were to be regenerated then two access points at opposite ends of the island would serve to improve visitor flow and dispersion. The steep steps from the pier up to the road would present problems for less able visitors arriving at the western end of the island. However, a gently winding path up to the view point could make the climb easier. Onshore emergency, retail and catering facilities will need to be considered. Timber buildings with wooden piling foundations would be sympathetic to the natural environment. Boats travelling from Sandbanks and the eastern end of the harbour could continue to land at the quay on the 7 From National Trust annual visitor surveys - 2005 to 2007 combined. north-eastern side of the island. Having two major access points for visitors to the island could serve to improve visitor flow onto the island see below. Recommendation: As a first step,an informal meeting with the ferry operators and the harbour commissioners to explore the viability of such a scheme would be useful - How can visitor flow around the island be managed? Problems with visitor flow are currently experienced since visitors arrive in groups rather than individually. Frequently 100+ people can arrive at the Visitor Reception at any one time. Brownsea Island Ferries services from Poole Quay and Sandbanks are timetabled to avoid both services discharging onto the island at the same time. The ferry operators seldom run the boats to the island at full capacity, but have increased the carrying capacity of the boats to ensure that large numbers of people wishing to leave the island in inclement weather can be accommodated. The arrival of visitors in such large and concentrated groups results in queues and congestion around the Visitor Reception area. The layout of the buildings at Town Quay is such that visitor flow is congested. However, proposed alterations to these buildings will improve visitor flow through the reception area and out onto the walk trails. The locations of the Visitor Centre in the farm buildings and the Information Point to the north of South Shore Lodge encourage visitors to disperse and well-marked trails allow visitors to explore the island under relatively controlled conditions. Over 30% of visitors7 are on a day trip from home, and with an increasingly ageing local population access problems are likely to become more pressing. It may be necessary to increase the frequency of trailer trails and to offer a range of differently themed trailer trails to attract repeat visits by less able visitors as well as families with young children. It may be possible to reconstruct the narrow gauge railway that ran from Pottery Pier to the potteries on the southwestern corner of the island, and to use this to move visitors from the landing stage around the southern side of the island. Such railways can be light-footprint (such as the narrow gauge railway in Moors Valley Country Park) and can reduce trampling on sensitive areas of the site but still continue to allow visitors to enjoy the scenery. As vehicle access and some portions of the track have been 46 lost, and the strong potential for such a project to detract from the peace and tranquillity that so many visitors seek, this suggestion may not find favour but warrants further investigation. Any proposed developments would need to demonstrate that there would be no adverse effects on the island ecology as a result. - What is the importance of the lagoon and what are the future management options? (Sterna sandvicensis). Brownsea is now the major nesting site in Poole harbour for Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus). They are the only waders present in summer, but in the winter are joined by Curlew (Numenius arquata), Sandpiper (Actitis hypoleucos), Redshank (Tringa totanus) and Turnstone (Arenaria interpres). The abundance of breeding waders appears to be decreasing in the southwest (though populations in protected reserves such as this are being maintained). There does not appear to be an increase in their abundance elsewhere. The double tides within the harbour present bird species with good opportunities for feeding. Birds will move around the harbour and feed in different locations depending upon the state of the tide. The lagoon on Brownsea provides a stable and reliable environment for birds within the harbour. Whilst not a natural feature, the value of the lagoon for migratory birds is clearly established and if that value is to be maintained, then the lagoon structure will have to also be maintained. Brownsea Island lagoon (AJF) The whole valley of St. Andrews Bay (in the north-west corner of the island) has previously flooded on high tides. In the 1850s, a sea wall was built around St. Andrews Bay. Wind pumps and sluices were installed to control the water level and to reclaim the marshland from Poole Harbour. The land was used for grazing cattle until the late 1920s, when ownership of the island changed hands. The new owner, Mrs Mary Bonham-Christie, left nature to reclaim the fields and woodlands, and neglect of the sea wall and wind pumps allowed the fields to re-flood. The resulting marsh complex developed. The lagoon is now a habitat of national and international importance for a wide variety of overwintering and summer breeding birds. The lagoon is part of the 82ha reserve leased to the Dorset Wildlife Trust (DWT) and is a designated Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The lagoon is also a designated Ramsar site and is included in the Poole Harbour Special Protected Area (SPA). Over 230 bird species have been recorded in and around the lagoon. The lagoon constitutes part of the Poole Harbour SPA which is designated for the following species on Annex I to the EC Birds Directive: • Mediterranean gull (Larus melanocephalus) • Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa islandica) • Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta) • Common tern (Sterna hirundo) • Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna) The small gravel islands in the lagoon have been constructed as nesting sites for Brownsea’s tern colony which usually comprises 200 pairs of Common terns (Sterna hirundo) and up to 200 pairs of Sandwich terns Poole Harbour Commissioners require that all sea defences should be maintained in good condition and any hazards to shipping must be removed. Without ongoing maintenance, the sea wall surrounding the lagoon will not survive (although it is currently in a reasonable condition). The wall will be over-topped in time, and this will alter the currently non-tidal, saline lagoon environment. Effectively protecting the lagoon is likely to be difficult, intrusive and unlikely to tie in with policy set in the SMP review and the associated Strategy Study (on which the Environment Agency are the lead body). The Environment Agency is investigating the possibility of allowing areas around the Wareham Channel to return to salt marsh (by removing sea defences). It is feasible that the lagoon area of Brownsea could legitimately be returned to saltmarsh at some future date. Consultees raised the question as to whether to focus on preservation or removal of this structure? The options suggested were: 1) To continue to maintain the sea wall in the face of rising sea levels 2) To let nature take its course and leave the sea wall to deteriorate (although, as stated, Poole Harbour Commission require that failing sea defences are removed to prevent hazards to shipping) 3) To actively dismantle, remove and recycle the structure some time in the mid-term future and allow the sea to take over the site In line with National Trust policy (and following the example set at Mullion Harbour) a combination of the first and third options were felt to be the most appropriate. This would combine maintenance and repair with managed retreat over a timescale of 25 years. Once the integrity of the sea wall is deemed non-viable, then managed retreat would be the option chosen. The sea wall and associated structures could be systematically removed to allow the area to revert back to its previous salt marsh habitat. As 47 this area is leased to DWT, such proposals would need to be discussed and agreed with the leaseholders well in advance. This long-term solution should include finding an alternative site to replicate the lagoon conditions, and this alternative site should be created before the sea defences at Brownsea lagoon are removed. Recommendation: Continue to work closely with DWT and RSPB to fully understand the role of the lagoon within the harbour ecosystem. Develop workable timetable for managed retreat of the lagoon and recreation of habitat Other areas in the UK are facing similar problems, such as the RSPB reserve at Titchwell Marsh (North Norfolk). The Titchwell Marsh Project The nature reserve receives around 100,000 visitors each year, but is under pressure as the reserve’s sea walls are not robust enough to protect the reserve from the encroaching sea. The Titchwell Marsh Coastal Change Project8 is estimated to cost more than £1million and is due to begin in Autumn 2009 - the project aims to realign the defences over a small part of the reserve and reinforce the sea bank behind the brackish marsh. The brackish marsh will slowly undergo a transition to saltmarsh and mudflats, so the project also intends to recreate a brackish marsh habitat at two other RSPB reserves 30km away. This new habitat will be created before the work begins at Titchwell, to minimise the disturbance to the bird populations. This project involves handling change at a muchloved reserve, and could be a useful case-study. - How is the ecology of the harbour waters likely to change? How is this likely to affect Brownsea? Increased rainfall and changes in farming patterns are likely to increase run-off and sediment load around the harbour. For example, Maize is a favoured crop in warmer climates, but is associated with a high degree of run-off. Other likely changes, such as an increase in vegetable farming, will also lead to an increase in the sediment load to the harbour. This may lead to changes in the infaunal community through the 8 See http://www.rspb.org.uk/reserves/guide/t/titchwellmarsh/ coastalchange.asp for further information. alteration of elements of the physical environment such as water, oxygen and organic content. The National Trust has little land ownership on the banks of the Frome, which will make it difficult to influence farming practices here. Defra’s Catchment Sensitive Farming programme aims to develop measures to tackle diffuse water pollution from agriculture. However, such schemes may become unsustainable if food security becomes a higher priority than environmental issues in the future. Since the 1960s, numbers of avocets have increased dramatically and well over 1000 birds can be seen feeding in the lagoon. Brownsea and Poole harbour are home to the largest overwintering flock in the UK – if the lagoon does not freeze or flood then avocets will feed on the abundance of small shrimps and roost there throughout the day (freezing of the lagoon would make this food resource unavailable to the avocets, and flooding would displace the small shrimps from the lagoon). However, any significant increase in SLR could mean that the regular exposure of the mudflats is compromised. The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) has undertaken a detailed analysis in Poole Harbour that showed the distribution of overwintering birds (such as avocet, black-tailed godwit and common shelduck) is increasingly shifting to the east of Britain and away from the south-west. This is thought to be due to increasingly stormier winters, and this is likely to be an accelerating phenomenon. Whether this loss will affect the environmental designations within the harbour is unclear. However, if the species for which the area is designated are lost, it would seem appropriate to reassess the designation. It is also important to consider other impacts of climate change, for example an increase in air and sea temperatures, on the ecology of the area. Higher heat stress may affect the breeding and feeding success of some floral and faunal populations. Sea temperature increase could displace traditional species, such as cockles (Cerastoderma edule), from the harbour. However, invasive species, such as the Manila clam (Tapes philippinarum) are thriving and likely to continue to do well. Such invasions by non-native species are of benefit to general feeders such as oystercatchers who may prey on the exotic species in addition to, or in preference to, the native ones. Alien species currently unable to breed in the harbour are likely to do so with increased water temperatures. It is useful to also consider factors other than climate change that might affect Brownsea. Common Cordgrass, Spartina anglica coverage in the harbour has been reducing since its known maximum extent in the 48 1920s. As areas of Spartina are lost, the protection afforded to the cliffs on the south side of the island is compromised. Poole Harbour Commissioners have deepened the channel at the harbour entrance twice to allow larger vessels to enter. Although the sea level is rising, this will probably need to continue to maintain the channels (some of this dredged material is then available for beach replenishment). Larger vessels create more swash and the consequent waves impact upon shoreline. However, the latest Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)9 found this dredging had no undesirable effects upon the ecology of the harbour. If large cruise liners are to be attracted to Poole in the future, it may be necessary to dredge even deeper channels to accommodate them. - What impacts will an increase in visitor numbers have on the ecology of Brownsea? How can these be mitigated? Given its small size, Brownsea Island has a remarkably diverse range of habitats supporting an exceptional variety of species. The habitats can be divided into six broad categories: • • • • • • Lagoon Seashore Freshwater lakes Mixed woodland Pinewoods Heath The lagoon is located within the nature reserve and supports an enormous variety of bird species. These species are susceptible to human disturbance and are particularly sensitive during the breeding season. Visitors are asked to minimise disturbance by not bird-watching from the walkways or lagoon edges, and hides are provided throughout the reserve. However, any significant increase in visitor numbers may mean that these facilities are inadequate and birds may be exposed to increased disturbance. Times of access to the reserve and visitor numbers granted entry may need to be regulated to protect sensitive species. The natural seashore around Brownsea is predominantly sand and pebbles. Such beaches are not generally rich in species, however, a number of animals live within the sediment. Excessive trampling can cause disturbance to sandy shore creatures and reduce their abundance. Much of the western shoreline is covered in broken pottery and whilst unnatural and quite unattractive, it is inert material 9 See http://www.phc.co.uk/downloads/environment/env_enviro_ detailed_2007_08.pdf and is now regarded as part of the historical and cultural history of the island. The two freshwater lakes on Brownsea (known as East Lake and West Lake) are the result of peat digging activities. Due to their high acidity, the lakes support few fish but Little grebes (Tachybaptus ruficollis) nest here and Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) regularly breed here. Pochard (Aythya ferina) and Coot (Fulica atra) also overwinter. This area is also home to the heronry – 130 pairs once nested on the island but now the figure is less than 40 pairs. This area is currently closed to visitors to minimise disturbance. There are more than 60 species of tree on Brownsea, and most of them are the result of deliberate planting. These woodlands house a number of resident birds, woodland plants and fungi. Paths and trails lead through the majority of these woodland areas and an increase in visitor numbers may require increased maintenance of these trails (to encourage visitors to keep to the trails) or the creation of new trails (to accommodate more visitors) – this may require clearing of areas of woodland. Sensitive plant and animal species (such as small mammals, orchids and fungi) may also be susceptible to increased disturbance and trampling. The heathland on Brownsea has been extended following concerns regarding the decline and fragmentation of heathland elsewhere in Dorset. These areas are home to a variety of bird and insect species which may be susceptible to increased human disturbance. The heath itself is also susceptible to damage from excessive trampling. - What are the likely effects of climate change the ecology of Brownsea and how might conservation management principles be affected? Many iconic species (such as Dartford warbler, Sylvia undata, and Sand lizard, Lacerta agilis) are at the northern end of their range in this area. For this reason, such species are likely to benefit from a warmer or more Mediterranean climate. These and other southern species (such as Avocet, Mediterranean gull and Spoonbill, Platalea leucorodia) are likely to become more common. A recent trend has seen the increased presence of the Little egret (Egretta garzetta) in summer and winter. Brownsea was the first site in Britain where Little egrets nested and the numbers have been growing steadily. 23 species of dragonfly have been recorded in the reed beds to the south of the nature reserve. In addition to frequent southern hawkers (Aeshna cyanea) 49 are breeding populations of downy emerald (Cordulia aenea), emperor (Anax imperator), four-spotted chaser (Libellula quadrimaculata), broad-bodied chaser (L. depressa), ruddy darter (Sympetrum sanguineum) and hairy dragonfly (Brachytron pratense). The nationally rare small red damselfly (Ceriagrion tenellum) can also be seen. The very warm spring of 2007 saw a large increase in the number of reports of dragonflies and damselflies in April and early May across the country. Life history transitions (particularly emergence) in the Odonata taxon of British dragonflies have shown a significant and consistent advance of ~3 days per degree rise in temperature. It is likely that climate change will continue to advance life history transitions and also lead to an increase in the numbers of dragonflies and damselflies in the area. Brownsea Island is one of only two areas in the south of England where breeding populations of red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) exist. The red squirrel is protected in most of Europe as it is listed in Appendix III of the Bern Convention. The IUCN conservation status of the species is ‘near threatened’. The red squirrel is native to Britain, but its future is increasingly uncertain as the introduced American grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) expands its way across the mainland. The UK population is thought to number 140,000 animals, with the majority of these (112,000) in Scotland. The population in England (~15,000) has a very fragmented distribution, occurring in isolated populations on the Isle of Wight, on the islands in Poole harbour and across the north of England. Population estimates for Brownsea Island are 130-200 animals. The continental population may be stable enough for any losses on Brownsea not to be a significant problem. However, the potential loss of the species from large areas of continental Europe over the next 100 years may dramatically increase the significance of the Brownsea population. The pine woodlands on the island are essential for the success of the red squirrels as they produce highenergy food in the form of seeds, plus buds and undeveloped cones which provide food over the summer months. However, Rhododendron (Rhododendron ponticum) invasion reduces the regeneration of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and a boom in Sika deer (Cervus nippon) and rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) numbers since the 1980s has drastically reduced the regeneration of the Scots pine. Rhododendron thrives in milder, wet climatic conditions, which may mean this problem is exacerbated as the climate changes and will require increased conservation effort to clear. Brownsea’s woodlands also suffered during storms in the late 1980s and early 1990s when hundreds of Scots pine were destroyed. The increasing trend for stormier winters could threaten this important food source for the red squirrel, and therefore the population itself. Recommendation: Develop emergency contingency plan with the DWT for red squirrel population on Brownsea. Liaise with Grampian Squirrel Society regarding Biodiversity Action Plan implementation It is important to establish a consensus about what Brownsea’s future role in UK nature conservation will be. This will allow decisions to be made regarding future management of the natural environment. As islands are at the forefront of climate change and SLR impacts, Brownsea could become an exemplar of how to care for islands in the face of climate change and sea level rise. There are some climate change impacts that will occur in the future, e.g. the disappearance of Beech woodlands or a transition to Ash woodlands. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the effects of climate change on the flora and fauna of the island. The quality of distribution data for UK BAP species is variable – well-monitored groups like the birds have excellent distribution data, whilst the quality of the data for many of the invertebrates is poor. An up-to-date statistical summary of all species present on and around Brownsea, their local, national and international importance and the potential impacts that climate change would have to these populations would be extremely useful. Recommendation: Brownsea could become an exemplar of how to care for islands in the face of climate change and sea level rise. In order to achieve this, a programme of field monitoring was suggested by the consultees The Gaps in our knowledge identified during the consultation process… There were other points raised during the consultation process which are perhaps more difficult to answer but warrant consideration when formulating new policies and directives. 50 - Tide level and bathymetric information is regularly collected for Poole Harbour10. However, how these variables will modify with increasing sea level is currently unclear Recommendation: Further liaise with Poole Harbour Commissioners to share new data and information - What will be the effects of any increased fluvial input to the harbour? - There is currently no clear guidance on planning for climate change. Will the revision of PPG20 (Coastal Planning) and PPG25 (Flood risk) sufficiently address these issues? Can we predict how the planning system is likely to have changed in 50 years? It is important to feed into the PPG20 consultation process to ensure clarity in the local issues - Cost/benefit analysis plays an increasingly large part in coast protection decision-taking. As the cost of defence works increases, there are likely to be areas that become non-viable to protect in 50-100 years. These considerations are now a material factor in the SMP2 coastal cell option choices. They are also required to consider long-term sustainability, economic, social, environmental and heritage matters - How much future investment in the infrastructure and protection of Brownsea can the National Trust justify? - What are the optimum parameters/indicators that should be used? For example, should there be more emphasis placed upon the views of the general public or should more attention be paid to contingent valuation (i.e. the mean willingness of members of the Trust to pay/sanction new works) Recommendation: As investment is likely to be considerable, an idea of the costs involved in the suggested changes to infrastructure in this report would help to better inform the Trust - Islands hold a certain attraction that brings people to the site. How can Brownsea also appeal to those who are physically unable to visit? 10 See Poole Harbour Approach Channel Deepening and Beneficial Use of Dredged Material, Poole Harbour Commissioners, 2004. Recommendation: Investigate development of virtual access software to allow virtual tours of the island - Will the potential loss of the iconic red squirrel population adversely affect visitor numbers? Are variations in the European Red Squirrel population likely to increase the significance of the Brownsea population? - Statutory Nature Conservation Agencies (SNCAs) with an improved understanding of the issues surrounding climate change may be able to produce guidance to inform management decisions relating to climate change Recommendation: Liaise with SNCAs to share information and best practice - Ensure that the current infrastructure and emergency plan is in place and adequate. A disaster recovery plan (or evacuation plan) for the whole island (including all partners) should be formulated as the climate becomes increasingly unpredictable. Work with emergency services to ensure plans are effective Recommendation: Evaluate the current emergency plan, and develop evacuation plan for the island in collaboration with all partners on the island, Dorset County Council Emergency Planning team and the boat companies What are the main statutory 51 instruments and policy guidance notes that relate to this scenario? International • Agenda 21 (commitment of Member States to integrated coastal management and sustainable development of coastal areas under their jurisdiction) • Ramsar Convention (International Wetland Conference 1972) • The Convention on Biological Diversity (RIO Earth Summit 1992) • World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development 2002) European Union Legislation • EC Bathing Waters Directive (76/160/EEC) • EC Directive on the Conservation of Wild Birds (79/409/EEC) • EC Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) • EC Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) • Natura 2000 National Legislation • Coast Protection Act 1949 • Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 • Environment Act 1995 • Housing Act 2004 • Marine Act (Forthcoming) • National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 • Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act 2006 • Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) Act 1990 • Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 • Protection of Wrecks Act 1973 • Town and County Planning Act 1990 • Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 National Policy • PPS 1: Delivering Sustainable Development • PPS 3: Housing • PPS 7: Sustainable Development in Rural Areas • PPS 9: Biodiversity and Geological Conservation • PPS 10: Planning for Sustainable Waste Management • PPS 11: Regional Spatial Strategy • PPS 12: Local Spatial Planning • PPG 20: Coastal Development • PPS 23: Planning and Pollution Control • PPS 25: Development and Flood Risk • UK Biodiversity Action Plan (1994) Regional and Local Policy Guidance • Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty Management Plan • Interim Planning Framework for Dorset Heathland • Poole and Christchurch Bay SMP1 and forthcoming SMP2 • Purbeck District Local Development Framework • Poole Local Development Framework • Purbeck Local Biodiversity Action Plan • Southwest Regional Spatial Strategy • Poole Harbour Aquatic Management Plan EC Birds Directive Council Directive 79/409/EEC on the Conservation of Wild Birds was adopted by the European Community in 1979. The Directive provides a framework for the conservation and management of, and human interactions with, wild birds in Europe. The main provisions of the Directive include the maintenance of the favourable conservation status of all wild birds species across their distributional range, and the identification and classification of Special Protection Areas for rare or vulnerable species listed in Annex I of the Directive. Bern Convention The Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats (Bern Convention) came into force in 1982. The Convention seeks to conserve wild flora and fauna and their natural habitats and monitor and control endangered and vulnerable species. Useful websites http://www.bournemouthsurfreef.co.uk/ - Bournemouth surf reef at Boscombe http://www.bto.org/webs/about/index.htm - British Trust for Ornithology Wetland Bird Survey http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/environment/water/ index.htm#3 - Defra Catchment Sensitive Farming programme http://www.dorsetwildlife.co.uk/brownsea_island_ reserve - Dorset Wildlife Trust http://www.moors-valley.co.uk/sr/ - Moors Valley Country Park (Steam Railway) http://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/main/cymraeg/lo/wglobal/w-localtoyou/w-devoncornwall/wdevoncornwall-countryside_environment/w-devon_ cornwall-news-story5.htm#mullion_harbour - National Trust policy for Mullion Harbour http://www.twobays.net/index.htm - Poole and Christchurch Bays Shoreline Management Plan Review 52 http://www.jncc.gov.uk/default.aspx?page=2031 Poole Harbour SPA description http://www.phc.co.uk/index.htm - Poole Harbour Commissioners http://www.pooletourism.com/ - Poole Tourism http://www.purbeck.gov.uk/default.aspx?page=6991 Purbeck Keystone Project http://www.grampiansquirrelgroup.co.uk/red_squirrels_ about_us.htm - Grampian Squirrel Group 53 Executive summary – Black Ven scenario What we set out to do: To identify and examine the different issues arising from the proposed Phase 4 coastal defence scheme at Lyme Bay and the potential effects on Black Ven and the Spittles, and to explore the consequences of the scheme not being incorporated. How we went about it: A detailed desktop study allowed the scenario to be scoped and structured. The scenario was then further developed in collaboration with the National Trust Property Manager for the site. A workshop and subsequent individual interviews allowed for effective engagement with stakeholders and interested parties. A structured questionnaire allowed for the gathering of public opinion. What were the main observations made? • With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, and increased air travel costs the South Coast and West Country tourist industries are predicted to expand. Managing this increase in numbers, especially in small coastal towns such as Lyme Regis and Charmouth, will require careful planning and integrated management strategies • Safe access to the Black Ven site is likely to become increasingly more problematic. The Trust needs to explore more imaginative and educational ways of facilitating intellectual access • There will be an accelerated frequency of mudslides and slips as sea levels and storminess increase, therefore the beach will be subject to more frequent closures. Remote access using webcams and downloadable interpretation should be explored to allow virtual access to the site • It may be necessary to relocate infrastructure considered of high importance some distance inland. Some translocation of coastal towns, such as Lyme Regis and Charmouth, may be necessary. Funding for coastal defence works will always be limited. It is important to balance funding in relation to infrastructure and its effects on communities, and to investigate how key towns and smaller access towns should be prioritised • An integrated plan for transport in the area is needed, especially for visitors to the coast. There is a need for cooperation with all those with an interest in the coast, as current provisions cannot sustain the continual growth in visitors What are the main knowledge gaps? • How will the Coastal Access provisions in the UK Marine Bill affect this section of the coast? • The last 1 in 200 year storm event took place in 1824 and destroyed the Cobb at Lyme Regis. Could the next 1 in 200 year storm cause the same damage? Costs for a full repair will require adequate funding these need to be explored or alternative approaches are needed • Would it be technically feasible or desirable to ‘hold the line’ at East Cliff/Church Cliff in 60 years time? What is the likelihod of a catastrophic new landslide occurring by 2070 and what options will be available then? Black Ven Landslip, May 2008 (AJF) 54 Black Ven scenario The Year is 2070… The winter storms of the past 3 years have been unprecedented in terms of their ferocity and the damage they have wreaked on exposed coastal communities. Ringstead, West Bexington and West Bay have suffered the worst, with many properties damaged beyond repair. Due to continued thermal expansion of the oceans and increasing melting of ice sheets, the mean sea level on the south coast of England is now 96cm higher than 60 years ago. The Scenario Within the National Trust property at Black Ven, the seacliff (that extends eastwards towards Charmouth) is now receding at up to 4m per year. The Lyme Regis sea wall (completed in 2016) is approaching the end of its design life and has been regularly overtopped during the severe Southerly gales that have become a more frequent occurrence during the last 20 years. The overtopping has meant that the muds of the lower slopes are perpetually saturated and more likely to flow than at any other period in the recent past. The Spittles and Black Ven form part of the old UNESCO Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site (renamed Sites of Universal Importance, SUIs, in 2041). For nearly 3 centuries, Geologists, Palaeontologists and amateur fossil collectors have visited the area because of its geological importance as the largest mudslide in Europe. The installation of webcams in 2012 has allowed the public to safely view the wildlife of the area though, unfortunately, this has not discouraged some people from exploring the site on foot. The location has always been hazardous, but a number of recent incidents have required complex rescue operations. The ongoing National Trust policy is to work with natural processes, unless there is an overriding social, economic or environmental need to intervene. The reactivation of the landslips at the Spittles and Black Ven has accelerated and major slips are increasingly common. Part of the old Charmouth Road car park was destroyed in 2059 and, since so few people now own private vehicles, it was considered uneconomical to replace it. At the same time a number of houses bordering the main road suffered heavy subsidence many of the insurance claims have still not been met 11 years later. The South West Coast Path has been re-routed numerous times in the past 60 years and currently follows a route similar to that used in 2010, which runs away from Black Ven to the north of Timber Hill. The path still has to circumvent the Lyme Golf Course, and many walkers would like to see the construction of a path closer to the sea. However, the National Trust and the Local Authority insist that it would be dangerous and irresponsible to do this. In all but exceptionally high value locations, the latest European strategy is to translocate small, vulnerable communities inland to safer ground, and European funding is available to support this strategy. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain grants for unsustainable coast protection schemes. The Cobb at Lyme Regis has suffered major damage and the remedial works carried out to the structure in 2040 are now in a severely distressed condition. However, the total cost for a full repair is unlikely to be granted from UK government sources. The residents of both Lyme and Charmouth are calling for new and substantial coast protection works to be constructed along the 1800m of coast between the two towns. The local community feels that not enough is being done to protect them and that the importance of the ecology and geology of Black Ven is taking precedence over their own properties, personal safety and livelihoods. The Lyme Regis golf club has witnessed the loss of some 10% of their land over the last 20 years and they too are demanding that the old stabilisation works are renewed and upgraded. The population of the two towns is relatively small (approaching 11,000 at the 2061 census). However, as around 30% of the properties are used as second homes, and the area is extremely popular with summer visitors, the Local Authority and service providers have to provide resources and infrastructure capable of supporting at least twice that number. The alternative is to see the economy of the area deteriorate. 55 Summary of the scenario findings Background information (2008) • With the prospect of warmer, drier summers and increased air travel, the south coast and west country tourist industries are likely to expand. The two main options for management include: a) build capacity to allow more people, or b) promote ‘quality’ tourism where there is an increased charge per visitor • Lyme Regis, Black Ven and Charmouth are famous for fossils, and this draws a large number of visitors to the area. If coastal protection is improved along this stretch of coast, this is likely to reduce erosion of the cliffs and exposure of fossils – and may deter a number of potential visitors • The consultees suggested that there is insufficient safety monitoring across the Black Ven landslip. In order to tell the story of Black Ven safely, remote access using webcams and downloadable interpretation should be explored • The South West Coast Path is an extremely important tourist attraction. However, planning for the path is not seen as a priority at present until details of the Coastal Access provisions under the UK Marine Bill are unveiled. ‘Roll back’ of the coastal strip is proposed and this will improve management of the path on sections of coast susceptible to erosion Map 3.0 Location of Black Ven Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd Located at the most south western corner of Dorset, on the coast between Charmouth and Lyme Regis, Black Ven is a series of terraced cliffs and the site of an active complex landslide. The site is owned and managed by the National Trust who recognise that attempting to halt the natural processes which have formed Black Ven would be an ‘unrealistic undertaking’ (Southwest Shifting Shores, National Trust 2008). At the time of writing the National Trust and Halcrow Ltd are exploring how the geomorphology of the area is likely to develop over the next 100 years in order to inform future decisions regarding the site. • Translocation of small areas of coastal towns, such as Lyme Regis and Charmouth, may be necessary in the future. Socioeconomic, engineering and environmental issues would take many years to resolve The key variables in this scenario are those which are, or could potentially, affect or be affected by the natural processes that occur at this site. Due to the proximity of Charmouth to the east and Lyme Regis to the west there is a need for an understanding of factors such as: • Any form of coastal protection between Lyme Regis and Charmouth must be carefully considered. The SMP2 process is currently addressing this issue • • • • • • • It is likely that protection of the coastal towns of Lyme Regis and Charmouth will become increasingly important. However, the environmental designations held by the site mean that the cycle of landslips must be allowed to continue. The resolution of these problems will require working with all the stakeholders to agree priorities • No integrated transport plan is currently in place for this area There is a need for imaginative thinking involving all sectors, including the coastal community Past and present coastal defence schemes Land planning Existing environmental constraints Visitor/tourist impact Spreading room for growing populations Access to both the site itself and wider access to the surrounding area This chapter will give a brief breakdown of current data and information on the above variables with regard to Lyme Regis and Charmouth. 56 Access to Lyme Regis and Charmouth Car The A3052 runs from Exeter along the southwest coast through Devon’s coastal town of Sidmouth before crossing over into Dorset and passing through Lyme Regis. It merges with the A35 at Charmouth which continues east through Dorset linking Charmouth with Dorchester and Poole before terminating in Bournemouth. Parking There are a number of car parks in Lyme Regis and Charmouth the majority are managed by West Dorset District Council. The remainder are managed by Lyme Regis Town Council or are privately owned. A leaflet which includes a map of all car parks in Lyme Regis is available at dorsetforyou.com Rail The nearest train station, at Axminster, lies 5 miles from Charmouth and 6 miles from Lyme Regis. This line links Exeter and Waterloo and trains run frequently. As this line runs North Easterly from Axminster there are no rail links from Lyme Regis or Charmouth directly to the towns of Weymouth, Dorchester, Poole and Bournemouth to the South East. Bus The X53 Jurassic Coast service runs daily between Exeter and Poole, stopping at both Lyme Regis and Charmouth from April to October and continues with a reduced service throughout the winter. The number 31 service runs between Axminster and Weymouth from Monday to Saturday (except public holidays) and links Lyme Regis and Charmouth to a number of towns and villages including Bridport and Dorchester. Access to Black Ven Access to Black Ven is limited as this is a site of active mass movement with mudslides and quicksands present. Charmouth beach is the most commonly used access point although there are other trails which require local knowledge. The Southwest Coastal path runs over the top of Black Ven and the Spittles (a series of ancient landslides beneath Timber Hill west of Black Ven). At the time of writing part of this section of the path is temporarily closed and diverted due to movement of the landslip, the original route and the diversion can be seen in map 3.1. Map 3.1 A section of the Southwest Coastal Path to the east of Charmouth. Source: www.southwestcoastpath.com Housing and Population Map 3.2 The Civil Parishes of Lyme Regis and Charmouth outlined in green Source: Crown Copyright © Liscence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd The majority of the following statistics used in relation to population and housing are 2007 mid-year estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council and relate to the political boundaries of the Civil Parish’s (Map 3.2) Any information which was not available from this source was gained from the 2001 Census. Mid-year population estimates in 2007 for Lyme Regis and Charmouth Civil Parish Populations are 3636 and 1355 respectively with average household sizes of 2.04 and 2.12, slightly lower than the averages for the District and the County (table 3.1). 57 Table 3.1 Average household size of Dorset County, West Dorset District, Charmouth Civil Parish and Lyme Regis Civil Parish Area Table 3.2 Age Structure of Charmouth Civil Parish , Lyme Regis Civil Parish, West Dorset District and Dorset County Council Average household size Dorset 2.26 West Dorset 2.21 Charmouth 2.04 Lyme Regis 2.12 Source: 2001 Census Population of Dorset County (in 1000s) Population projections for this region are only available on a District and County level on a twenty year timescale: these projections are illustrated in figures 3.1 and 3.2. Charmouth CP Lyme Regis CP West Dorset DCC 0_4 3.1 3.3 4.4 4.6 5_10 7.2 5.1 6.2 6.2 11_18 8.0 8.6 11.2 10.5 19-24 2.5 3.6 4.0 5.1 25-39 8.2 11.2 13.0 14.0 40-49 10.8 11.8 13.9 14.0 50-64 22.1 24.1 22.3 21.6 65-74 19.6 14.6 12.0 11.6 75-84 13.7 11.4 9.1 8.8 85+ 4.8 6.2 3.9 3.6 Source: Mid Year Estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council Population of West Dorset District (in 1000s) Figure 3.1 Current and projected populations of Dorset County Source: Mid Year Estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council Figure 3.3 Age Structure of Charmouth Civil Parish Source: Mid Year Estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council Figure 3.2 Current and projected populations of West Dorset District Source: Mid Year Estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council The age structures of both towns are very similar (see Figures 3.3 and 3.4) with Lyme Regis housing a marginally higher percentage of 25-39, 40-49 and 5064 year olds and Charmouth a slightly higher percentage of 65-74 and 75-84 year olds. The majority of residents in both towns are between 50 and 64. This is representative of both West Dorset District and Dorset County (see Table 3.2). Figure 3.4 Age Structure of Lyme Regis Civil Parish Source: Mid Year Estimates from the Office for National Statistics and Dorset County Council Table 3.3 illustrates the number of dwelling completions in 1994 and in 2001. These figures demonstrate that more houses have been built in Lyme Regis than to Charmouth but also that both figures represent only a fraction of dwelling completions throughout the whole of West Dorset. 58 Dwelling Completions Boundary 1994 2001 West Dorset 7,024 3,541 Charmouth 147 29 Lyme Regis 294 172 Source: 2001 Census % of holiday accommodation A high percentage of accommodation in both Lyme Regis and Charmouth are holiday homes, 16.8% and 14.9% respectively in comparison to the County’s average of 2.8%. Figure 3.5 Percentages of holiday accommodation within Dorset County, West Dorset District, Charmouth Civil Parish and Lyme Regis Civil Parish Source: 2001 Census Tourism and Visitor Pressure The number of people who specifically travel to view Black Ven is relatively small. Nevertheless, given the pressure that the popularity of the surrounding resorts introduces, the environs surrounding Black Ven must be considered when analysing the management of the site. Charmouth Figures gathered by Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre regarding visitor numbers indicate a sharp increase since records began in 1999. The upward direction indicated in the trend line in Figure 3.6 is not necessarily indicative of future visitor numbers: in 1999 the centre closed during the winter months. Only opening for visitors for eight months of the year, in 2002 seasonal closure only occurred for two months and in 2006 and 2007 the centre didn’t close at all over the winter season. The marked dip in 2004 can be explained by the closure of the centre for four months for refurbishment. Annual number of visitors to Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre Table 3.3 Dwelling Completions in West Dorset, Charmouth and Lyme Regis 1994 and 2001 Figure 3.7 offers a more accurate picture with regards to the estimation of future visitor numbers. This graph uses only the months in which the centre has been open for visitors consistently from 1999 to 2007. Figure 3.6: Annual Visitor Numbers to Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre from 1999 to 2007 Source: Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre 2008 Annual visitors numbers (using data from May-Sep only) from 1999-2007 There is only one site in both towns which is considered Greenfield, and this is land off Queens Walk, at Lyme Regis. 26 dwellings were added to this site between 2004 and 2005. Figure 3.7: Annual Visitor Numbers to Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre (using data from May-September only) from 1999 to 2007 Source: Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre 2008 A breakdown of the monthly visitor numbers recorded by Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre (Figure 3.8) illustrates that a predictably seasonal pattern remains with the summer months (especially those outside of school term time) supporting considerably higher visitor numbers than the winter months. Only a small fraction of the visitors recorded as visiting Charmouth will visit Black Ven and so it is difficult to gauge the immediate impact visitors may have with regard to increased erosion and disturbance of this site. However the growing popularity of the immediate surrounding area does illustrates a need for forward planning with regard to local infrastructure. 59 The project was designed to ‘ensure the continued integrity and performance of the coastal defences in the developed areas of Lyme Regis where property, infrastructure and the public are at risk’ (West Dorset District Council). Figure 3.8: Monthly Visitor Numbers to Charmouth from 2003 to 2007 Source: Charmouth Heritage Coast Centre 2008 Lyme Regis Visitor numbers to Lyme Regis are not monitored by the Town Council or the tourist information centre in Lyme Regis. A common method for gauging changes to visitor numbers is to analyse parking data. This proved a difficult task due to sporadic partial closures of some town centre car parks and the temporary opening of ‘park and rides’ on both the Sidmouth and Charmouth sides of Lyme Regis. These factors created too many variants to provide enough consistent parking data to identify patterns which could be attributed to visitor frequency. However, it is safe to say that Lyme Regis is becoming an ever more popular tourist destination with the number of holiday homes above the national average. The data gathered here with regard to population and tourism suggests that both towns could be subject to considerable further expansion. Phases One and Two of the scheme (Map 3.3) were completed in 2005 and 2007 respectively. The coast protection and slope stabilisation proposed in phase three were completed as part of phase two and the remainder has been deferred. Funding is currently being sought for phase four of this project, which will provide coast protection and slope stabilisation works to the east of Lyme Regis and for preliminary investigation work on phase five (restoration and strengthening of the Grade 1 listed Cobb harbour structures). Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) The SMP which includes Lyme Regis and Charmouth covers the coast from Durlston Head near Swanage in Dorset to Rame Head in Devon; this area is covered by The South Devon and Dorset Coastal Authorities Group (SDADCAG) and this SMP is currently under review. Planning considerations: Environmental constraints Due to Dorset’s renowned natural heritage there are a number of designations and environmental recognitions which must be considered with regards to planning and management of this site. Current Coastal Management A number of these designations are outlined below. A full list of relevant legislation and policy guidance is listed later. Coastal defence: Lyme Regis Environmental Improvements The coastal defence infrastructure in Lyme Regis has undergone significant regeneration in the last decade. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) Map 3.3: Boundaries of each phase of the Lyme Regis Environmental Improvements Source: West Dorset District Council, 2002 Map 3.4 Boundaries of Sidmouth to Westbay SAC. Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd. 60 The Annex I habitats which are the primary reason for the designation of Sidmouth to Westby SAC (UK0019864), the boundaries of which are outlined in Map 3.4, are listed below. • Vegetated sea cliffs of the Atlantic and Baltic coasts • Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines Sights of Special Scientific Interests (SSSIs) Map 3.5: Unit 3 of the West Dorset SSSI, classed as ‘unfavourable’ Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd and Natural England 2008. Map 3.4 Boundaries of West Dorset Coast SSSI Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd The West Dorset Coast SSSI is shown in Map 3.4 and its condition is represented in graph 3.9. Figure 3.9 Condition of the North Dorset Coast SSSI Source: Natural England There are only two unfavourable units within the coastal area of this SSSI and only one is within the area of this study. Situated just west of Black Ven, unit 3 (map 3.5) is described as unfavourable due to ‘landscape’ issues: specifically that an earth science feature is obstructed. These issues will be addressed by West Dorset District Council who have outlined solutions in Phase 4 of the Lyme Regis Environmental Improvements. Consent must be sought through Natural England for any ‘operations likely to damage the special interest’ of the site. A list of such activities is available for each individual site via Natural England’s website: www. naturalengland.org. Some examples of operations under restriction at the West Dorset Coast SSSI include: • Erection of sea defences or coast protection works, including cliff or landslip drainage or stabilisation measures • Construction, removal or destruction of roads, tracks, walls, fences, hardstands, banks, ditches or other earthworks, or the laying, maintenance or removal of pipelines and cables, above or below ground • Erection of permanent or temporary structures, or the undertaking of engineering works, including drilling • Modification of natural or man-made features, clearance of boulders, large stones, loose rock or scree and battering, buttressing or grading or seeding rock-faces, outcrops or cuttings Natural England’s primary management principle with active sites such as Black Ven is to avoid interfering with ‘the natural processes and the features they produce’, it is also recognised that ‘developments do not necessarily have to take place within the boundary of a site to cause damage’. 61 Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty Exploring the Issues and ideas raised during the consultation process The consultation process involved a workshop at St. Andrew’s Community Hall in Charmouth. Individual interviews were also conducted to gather information from professionals and interested parties. Members of the general public were given the opportunity to contribute via a structured questionnaire distributed at the site. A summary of the principal views expressed is given on the following pages. Investigating the public perspective Map 3.6: Boundaries the Dorset AONB Source: Crown Copyright © Licence no. LA100019790. 2002 Vertical Images by ukperspectives.com. 2005 Vertical Images by GetMapping Ltd. The Dorset AONB covers 40% of Dorset, Lyme Regis and Charmouth are located in the southwest edge of this area. Within the draft AONB Management Plan the landslides associated with Black Ven are recognised as part of Dorset’s internationally important geodiversity which will be ‘valued and conserved, providing an educational resource for lifelong learning and research’. 50 questionnaires were handed out around the seafront at Charmouth. The results are discussed below. • 66% of respondents were visitors to the area. And out of the 50 the majority were over 60, though all age classes were represented (see figure 3.10) Sites of Nature Conservation Importance (SNCI) Figure 3.11 What attracted people to the site Jurassic Coast Visiting family/friends Work/Research Recreation/Walking River Cottage Fossils Beauty/Landscape Cretaceous Chert Beds, Upper Greensand and Gault have slipped seaward over impermeable Lower lias clays, on which the Gault lies unconformably. There is a slight south-eastward dip, with a seaward component. There is much local faulting and flexure, and a partly eroded syncline within the cliff serves to localise the discharge of ground water. The site is important for its demonstration of movement and flows of cohesionless material from the Upper strata. The addition of more water supplies as flows progress downslope ensures that they reach the beach at the foot of the cliff. This deprives the upper part of the cliff of its toe, creating conditions for further failure. • 46% of the respondents came to the area to look for fossils. Other reasons for coming to the area included: recreation/walking (17%) and work/ research (13%) (see figure 3.11) Sea/Beach Basic Geology and Geomorphology of the Black Ven complex Figure 3.10 The age structure of the respondents Number of respondents The only SNCI within the immediate area of the Black Ven is the Spittles Lane Meadow (the westward expansion of the Spittles and Black Ven landslide system). Here the SNCI is recognised for its species rich neutral grassland. The loss of these meadows through natural processes could mean that the SNCI designation would be compromised. 62 • With regard to the media coverage on climate change and sea level rise 44% felt their understanding of the issues was ‘fair’ whilst 42% felt they had a ‘good’ understanding of the issues involved Wildlife disturbance Accommodation Increased cost to visitor Don’t know Increased accidents/H&S Pollution/litter Noise Erosion Overcrowding More visitors will bring benefits Traffic/Parking Figure 3.13 Problems associated with an increase in visitor numbers • 72% of those questioned indicated that there should be no attempt to stop or slow down the landslip process. Only 22% felt that the process should be slowed down or stopped by using barriers. Also it was suggested by some members of the public that building an artificial reef might be a way to reduce erosion Improved accommodation Limit facilities/make access difficult Less advertising More car parks Improved footpaths More organised facilities Don’t know Improved coast rescue teams It can’t! Detailed transport plan Reduce cars Guided walks /Volunteer Limit numbers entering sites Improved education information Improved public transport • 66% of respondents felt that sea level rise would affect. local habitats and species. Listed effects included: loss of habitat due to increased mudslides; changes in sea temperature; reduced food supply; detrimental effects on seabirds; local habitats will become wetter and saltier Pricing/Tolls Figure 3.12 showing suggestions on how safe access to Black Ven could be best achieved Number of respondents By boat Quarry site from landward side Not possible as people always Set paths Limit access temporally Signs/warning flags Permits Guided walks Limit access spatially/fencing • Suggestions on how to reduce visitor pressure included: improved education and information; pricing/tolls, guided walks/volunteer wardens, having a detailed transport plan to include reduction of cars and conversely, more car parks. The suggestions are shown in Figure 3.14 Don’t know Number of respondents • On asking how safe access to the site could be best achieved answers are shown in Figure 3.12 the main ones being: the use of signs/warning flags; limit access using fencing; provision of guided walks and establishing set paths Only 12% of those questioned felt it was impossible to achieve safe access as some people will always be determined to explore the site. A total exclusion policy was considered difficult to implement and enforce Damage to cliffs by fossil hunters • Only 30% of those questioned found predictions on climate change and sea level rise confusing. Suggestions to aid communicating any messages included: reports should be from an independent authority; communicate using public service advertisements; more science/investigation would be helpful Number of respondents • Responses to the problems associated with an increase in visitor numbers at the site included: traffic/parking problems (25%); pollution/litter (19%); erosion (13%) and damage to cliffs by fossil hunters (12%). 4% felt that an increase in visitors would bring economic benefits to the area Figure 3.14 Suggestions on how visitor pressure could be best managed • On investigating the future of the Charmouth Road car park, in Lyme Regis, regarding slippage and loss 12% felt it should be protected and repaired, 14% felt an alternative ‘park and ride’ car park some distance from town would surfice and 4% thought nothing should be done as the loss of this car park may go some way to reducing visitor numbers 63 Improved rail links Improved cycling routes and cycle lock ups Indoor facilities Improved access from sea New car parks Tram Approved local transport plan Park and ride Improved bus service/bus shelters Shuttles/Land train Improved footpaths/ encourage visitors to walk Limit numbers to site Improved public transport Don’t know Number of respondents • Figure 3.15 indicates the different options that could be available to help with access to the area. The results showed 21% were unable to offer any suggestions; 23% suggested a ‘park and ride’ scheme and 13% suggested improved public transport. With regard to more specific suggestions on improved public transport ideas included: improved bus service and bus shelters, shuttle/land train services, improved rail links, increased cycling routes and cycle lock ups and access from the sea. 6% felt more car parks would be helpful Figure 3.15. What other options are available to help with access to the area? Dorset Wildlife Trust Environment Agency National Trust Everyone Various agencies Charmouth Parish Council General public Coastguard Dorset Coast Forum National Government/ Government dept. Local/District Councils Don’t know Number of respondents • There was some confusion over who was responsible for coastal protection in the area. The responses are shown in Figure 3.16. 14% did not know; 27% listed local or District Councils; 20% listed national Government or a Government department; and 15% listed ‘everyone’ and 8% listed the National Trust or the landowner. Figure 3.16 Perceived responsibility for coastal protection in this area 1 SWT Economic Report – Dorset 2005, 67p. From The Market Research Group, Bournemouth University. 2 West Dorset Visitor Survey 2007, 35p. From The Market Research Group, Bournemouth University. • 76% of respondents felt it was either ‘very important’ or ‘important’ that the stretch of the South West Coast Path between Lyme Regis and Charmouth was directly on the edge of the coast • When asked how important Black Ven is to the local economy, the majority (66%) felt it was either ‘very important’ or ‘important’ • With the prospect of warmer, drier summers and the environmental impacts of global air travel, 76% of those questioned would be more inclined to take more holidays in the UK in future and to revisit towns like Charnmouth and Lyme Regis Investigating the issues raised by stakeholders during the workshop - How can any predicted increase in visitors be best managed? With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the south coast and west country tourist industries are predicted to expand. The increasing cost of air travel is likely to further increase the numbers of people staying in the UK for holidays. On assessing how these tourists may best be accommodated, two options were discussed: firstly to build capacity to accept more people and secondly to promote ‘quality’ tourism where an increase in demand would allow for an increased ‘spend’ per visitor. The second option would mean that numbers could be sustained at current levels, but with an increased total income. In 2005, there were 712,200 trips by staying visitors to west Dorset. In contrast, the area attracted 2,649,000 day visits1. However, 78% of respondents to a 2007 visitor survey2 indicated they were visiting the area as part of a staying visit, with 18% of these staying in Lyme Regis. This may indicate that a shift to staying visitors is already underway. Any predicted increase in visitors could be managed by promoting extended stays and visits out of season. This reduction in day visitors is likely to reduce traffic problems. The potential loss (due to increased erosion) of the Charmouth Road car park in Lyme Regis and the Seatown car park should also serve to reduce the numbers of day trippers the area is able to accommodate – this, in turn, is likely to lead to a reduction in traffic congestion. Effective public transport is necessary to enable better access to this area should car parking be lost. 64 The Jurassic Coast brand is growing and being promoted at every opportunity. Planning authorities need to be constantly aware of the increasing numbers of environmental and economic management plans that now exist. Furthermore climate change impact assessments are likely to have an increasing relevance in Local Development Plans - Will the area continue to be popular with visitors? Lyme Regis, Black Ven and Charmouth are famous for fossils, and this draws a large number of visitors to the area (see Figure 3.11). If coast protection is improved along this stretch of coast, this is likely to reduce erosion of the cliffs and therefore exposure of fossils – and in turn may deter a number of potential visitors. As sea levels rise, the low tide mark will also rise, meaning that beaches will need to be given room to migrate inshore. On sections of undefended soft coast it is possible however, in areas of ‘hard’ coast or locations with fixed sea defences the beach will be unable to migrate inland, and therefore beaches could to be denuded. The loss of these sandy beaches may have an impact on visitors numbers. - How can the story of Black Ven be told without the requirement of physical access? The consultees emphasised that physical access to the Black Ven complex will always be dangerous. Therefore intellectual access becomes a far greater priority. The problem will become more apparent as sea levels rise and with increased storminess because there is likely to be an increase in the frequency of landslips. Furthermore there are already cases where visitors have been stranded on the beach each year and this could become a more frequent occurrence in 2070. A view expressed by one consultee was that we should help the general public “to experience the landslips – but not on them”. Consultees had concerns associated with an increasingly elderly population. The suggestion was made that guided walks could be a feature in the future. There would be real concerns regarding Health and Safety issues if such a plan were implemented. For this reason it was generally felt that access to the site should be discouraged. Consequently it was felt even more important to develop excellent interpretation facilities to allow visitors to remotely experience Black Ven. Visitors come to the site to experience geological processes – virtual access (such as webcams) could help improve this. Websites can showcase inaccessible locations to a wide audience in perfect safety and deliver all the appropriate, desirable messages to all age groups. Virtual Access A project to help schoolchildren and those with disabilities to access the wildlife on Skomer Island now enables anyone with access to a computer to view island wildlife. The project was trialled in 2007 and over 1,200 people have viewed footage from real-time webcam feeds via YouTube. The picnic area below the Charmouth Road car park is a potential location for interpretation facilities as this area looks over the site. Advances in technology mean that interpretation could be downloaded to mobile phones and other hand held devices view the. Electronic interpretation should explain why the area is so spectacular but also the history, geography and geology of Black Ven. The management and safety aspects (including access) should also be emphasised. - Is it feasible to re-route the South West Coast Path (SWCP) closer to the sea? The SWCP is one of the main ways of accessing the Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site (JCWHS) and consequently attains a higher level of importance. The SWCP brings £300 million annually into the South West regional economy which equates to approximately £500,000 per mile of path. The annual value of tourism in the region is over £8 billion, and the SWCP is recognised as one of the principal economic assets and recreational opportunities for the people of the South West. Re-instating the SWCP on to a cliff-top route between Charmouth and Lyme Regis is a high priority for the future management of the path. Coast path access to the north of Black Ven will inevitably involve land belonging to Lyme Regis golf club. It is understandable that public paths that cross golf courses are likely to create conflict. Resolving such conflicts will require delicate and imaginative solutions. Recommendation: The findings contained within the Halcrow (2007) Black Ven report form the basis of an opening dialogue with Lyme Regis golf club Planning for the SWCP is currently perceived as a low priority. Details of the Coastal Access provisions under the forthcoming UK Marine Act have yet to be unveiled and may therefore indicate a higher priority in the future. As coastal land is lost, the public right of way is also lost and steps must be taken to establish a new right of way (a process undertaken by the Dorset County Council) which in some cases can take several years. It would be advantageous if provisions in the new Act allow this 65 process to be significantly streamlined. Coastal Access provisions as proposed under the UK Marine Bill will allow for ‘roll back’ of the path as the coastline erodes. The Act needs to provide more appropriate tools for dealing with planning and implementation issues. It will be important for all landowners to liaise with the new Marine Management Organisation, Natural England and Local Government Authorities. All landowners will need to be flexible in their approach and in their forward thinking to allow for effective roll-back of the coastal strip over time. The ‘Coastal Corridor’ is part of the Dorset AONB Management Plan (currently in draft). This aims to provide strategies for the roll-back of the coastal strip and should take steps to provide an effective solution prior to 2070. The Dorset AONB Management Plan seeks to plan ahead for coastal change to ensure that the SWCP is available as a continuous route. The National Trust manages the SWCP on land that it owns. 75% of the money required to keep the SWCP in good condition is provided by Natural England, with the remainder coming from the managing organisations. At present the annual cost of this maintenance work is approximately £560,000. Other work such as developing a new section of path or reinstating the route following a cliff fall requires additional money. Perhaps a solution would be to provide seasonal footpaths. The recent 2007 Halcrow report to the National Trust3 does not consider the problem of coastal footpaths therefore this needs to be a consideration in the future. - Is translocation of coastal towns possible? What should be protected and how? The National Trust, as responsible landowners recognise that they have a duty of care to the residents of Lyme Regis and Charmouth. The National Trust is willing to disseminate any information regarding land movement that research exposes. Consultees felt that it is important to impart the message that that the ecology, species composition, infrastructure and homes cannot be protected in situ indefinitely and that it may be necessary to relocate these if at all possible e.g. relocate some homes some distance inland. Consultees were aware that the National Trust are making efforts to keep local residents (where applicable) informed of recent geological research findings. They also noted that those residents likely to be affected by land movements in the future were already aware of the status of their properties. Many had already obtained geological surveys independently. 3 National Trust – Lyme Regis to Charmouth Undercliff: Historical and Future Cliff Behaviour. Halcrow Group Ltd. November 2007, 81p. Difficulties occur with coast defence funding streams and these could potentially increase by 2070. Currently the majority of funding is being fed into the gateway town of Lyme Regis via the phase 1 to 4 coast defence plans. Consultees felt it was important to balance funding resources in relation to infrastructure requirements and to investigate how key towns and villages should be prioritised. Local people should be part of the process in both prioritising the needs and with funding bids. It was felt essential to defend the main carrier roads into both Charmouth and Lyme Regis. The sea defences in Charmouth are limited to a very short section of sea wall and a single groyne which enables the building up a shingle bank. The view expressed by consultees expressed that the Black Ven landslip may feed the groyne and improve its operation, and therefore may extend the life of Lower Sea Lane for a small time. The coast west of Charmouth is unlikely to be more heavily defended beyond this rock groyne due to the restrictions imposed by the SAC designation. It is therefore likely that some limited areas of Charmouth may be lost in the distant future. There will be a need to retreat some coastal populations inland, and this will require Government funding. Recommendation: From the workshop it was suggested to initiate a scenario discussion regarding the coastal defencesat Charmouth - What are the options for coastal protection between Lyme Regis and Charmouth? Sections of coast will be subject to accelerated erosion by 2070. Locations within the Black Ven complex could recede by up to 240m over the next 50 years. Active land movements will continue to replenish the beaches. It is important for everyone to recognise that the coastline is not disappearing but retreating. Both the National Trust policy and SMP current policy for Black Ven is ‘no active intervention’. The true value, in environmental terms of Black Ven is the unique geology. This geology is characterised land instability, and this in turn is created by poor land drainage and unstable rock strata. Consultees agreed that the main concern for the properties at East Cliff was drainage, rather than erosion. Government funding is currently only available for coastal defence and not specifically for drainage. It should be noted that any further 66 extension of the drainage system is unlikely to be cost effective. There may however be local pressure from residents and the golf club to substantiate this claim. Recommendation: To calculate the cost of drainage work needed to stabilise the Black Ven complex - Will any changes be required to the local transport systems to adequately allow for increased visitor numbers? Consultees felt there is currently no integrated plan for transport in the area especially when considering access for visitors. If visitor pressure increases this need will increase. Recommendation: If required the Dorset Coast Forum would be willing to organise a seminar to bring together all stakeholders from all sectors and local people to discuss this one issue in detail and provide recommendations Lyme Regis seawall looking eastwards to Black Ven (WDDC) The normal design life of sea defences is currently 50 – 70 years, and structures must be maintained and not allowed to deteriorate during this time. The most recent sections of Lyme Regis sea wall were constructed in 1996 and will be maintained for approximately another 40 years. It is unlikely that the sea wall at East Cliff will be overtopped, but could be out flanked and cause accelerated loss to the toe of the sea cliff. The Cobb at Lyme Regis is a Grade I listed structure and therefore under English Heritage instruction has to be maintained as a high priority. English Heritage operates a grants scheme which prioritises buildings at risk and projects where there is a lack of alternative sources of funding. In effect, the Cobb acts as a single groyne and prevents sediment material from moving eastwards. Without the Cobb it is reasonable to suppose that material from the cliffs and undercliff to the west of Lyme Regis would have been deposited on the beach fronting Black Ven. Because of the existence of the Cobb this mechanism is completely blocked. The Environment Agency is producing National Coastal Erosion Risk Management maps (due for release late 2009). These will reveal what is likely to happen to coastal land without any form of sea defence and will prove useful with regard to the management of Black Ven when released. Road: People currently access Lyme Regis by road (the main route is the A35). Consultees suggested that over time a reduction in car ownership was very unlikely (therefore current problems with the transport system are likely to deteriorate). This re-enforces the necessity of an integrated transport plan. Environmental designations are often perceived to be barriers to new road and transport improvement schemes. Statutory designations to help preserve locally important species, habitats and landscapes are also considered important but can provide obstacles to suggested transport improvements. Rail Services: The duelling of the rail line between Salisbury and Exeter has improved the rail service to the West country. The development of a tourist railway from Maiden Newton to the outskirts of Bridport was suggested as a tourism link to the coast from the national rail network similar to the line running from Norden to Swanage. A shuttle bus service could also link Axminster railway station with Lyme Regis or other coastal towns. Sustainability of these services is needed if they are to be both considered and successful. Bus services: The free national bus pass for pensioners has increased the use of local bus services (a large number of visitors to local caravan parks have been recorded as enquiring about bus timetables). This demand has resulted in an increase in the frequency of services, though consultees stressed that local people still find it difficult to find space on these improved services. The use of such concessionary passes leads to a reduction in income for the local bus companies, as there is insufficient recuperation of funds between the local authorities and bus companies. This can also be seen to be detrimental to local bus users who feel they are subsidising these services for tourists and are unable to take advantage of the services themselves. 67 Circular ‘paths’ could be developed and promoted using public transport (though this will require extension of the public transport system beyond the X53 and 31 bus service). The current funding system cannot support such ‘low value’ journeys – the way public transport is subsidised will not allow for this. Access from the sea: The potential of access to the coast from the sea warrants further investigation. Consultees felt that access by boat to the Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site has not grown as fast as was expected and there has been a reduction in the use of boat transport, e.g. from Swanage. This may be due to a number of factors, including: the introduction of concessionary bus passes for pensioners, poor summer weather and the current economic climate. It was felt that an attractive option for tourists would be to walk a section of the SWCP in one direction, and return by boat. Things to consider if this is to be developed further would be: • Sea conditions are likely to worsen as a result of climate change and could impose further restrictions on access to the coast from smaller boats • Requirements for disabled access • High embarkation points would be needed to account for sea level rise • The design of vessels required to navigate the sea area along the JCWHS • Good interpretation material needed to add value to the trip • Good access needed to the place of embarkation It is necessary that effective transport policies allow access for visitors arriving by private and charter boats are developed in the near future. With the UK Marine Bill and the new Marine Management Organisation it will be necessary to seek clarity on this issue if it is decided a priority in this area. The potential for increased and improved boat transport in the area is being considered by a sub-group of the Olympic Transport Working Group. Recommendation: To link in with sub group of the Olympic Transport Working Group to find out any progress and possibly help with the development of coastal access from the sea. This would also link nicely with Studland and Brownsea Island - Could the loss of infrastructure ever be considered to be of benefit? The potential loss of property and the loss of a through road through Lyme Regis are important issues. However, would Lyme Regis benefit in the long-term from the loss of a through road? One place where this has occurred is in Clovelly, North Devon, where the only vehicle access is for deliveries and disabled access. Difficulties however may arise in finding an alternative road route to the west due to steep inclines which may make highway construction difficult. Dorset County Council Transport Department did investigate this issue in the recent past and determined that the next best alternative route into Lyme Regis (from the east) would involve a detour of some 6 -7 miles. Essentially, the town would only be approached by the west. - How will social attitudes have changed by 2070? Lifestyle balances may have altered by 2070 and people may be travelling in a different way by this time (due to increased costs, fuel shortages etc.). Balances between ‘functional’ and ‘leisure’ time may shift. The way we travel currently means the balance to leisure time has increased but there is a possibility that the situation may revert to a market town and hinterland focus – where the radius of travel may be dictated by how far we can walk or cycle. The SWCP may become a functional route for moving between A and B rather than just a leisure attraction close to the sea. This, has a potential to increase overnight stays and may also lead to an increase in trade for small hotels that service key travel routes. Recommendation: That the NT explore opportunities to connect with local tourism groups and trade associations - What are the likely effects of an increase in visitor numbers to the ecology of Black Ven? Basically none. This is because the NT are very unlikely to ever encourage visitors to traverse Black Ven. However, there are other considerations to be made such as the European designations held by Black Ven. These need to be constantly reviewed. The area is also designated as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) for Atlantic Soft Cliff – this is a habitat which supports a number of rare invertebrates which are colonisers of newly exposed land. The SAC designation requires that the site be maintained at ‘Favourable Conservation Status’ and this will require the cycle of landslips and subsequent colonisation to be maintained. This means that any proposals for improved sea defences at Lyme Regis or Charmouth should not interrupt this cycle and equally the policy of not encouraging people to walk across Black Ven holds true for both considerations of public safety as well as ecological integrity. The proposed Phase IV coast protection works at Church Cliff and East Cliff propose ‘holding the line’ in 68 this area with an improved sea wall and rock apron. However, this option is likely to have adverse impacts on the SAC, SSSI, JCWHS and the Dorset AONB. Under the Habitats Directive, any proposal which is likely to have significant effects (in terms of the SAC) must be subject to Appropriate Assessment. Modified proposals are currently being considered. Main statutory and non-statutory instruments applicable to this scenario The South West Coast Path directs visitors around the north perimeter of the site, whilst access along the beach carries visitors along the south. Due to landslips at and to the east of Timber Hill, and above Raffey’s Ledge to the west of Charmouth in May 2008, this section of the South West Coast Path has been closed and re-routed to the north of Timber Hill and across the Lyme Regis Golf Course. The Path skirts the A35, then runs along Axminster Road and then heads southwards to the sea along Higher Sea Lane. This temporary closure is still in place (December 2008), and movement of the coastal landslip to the east of Charmouth has made it necessary to close a short section of the path and construct a 1.5mile diversion further inland. Such route closures will reduce visitor impacts on the fragile ecology of the upper slopes of the Spittles/Black Ven complex. Although these inland diversions of the coastal path may be less appealing to visitors who may chose to walk along the beach instead. • Agenda 21 (commitment of Member States to integrated coastal management and sustainable development of coastal areas under their jurisdiction) • The Convention on Biological Diversity (RIO Earth Summit 1992) • World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development 2002) Gaps and uncertainties in knowledge revealed during the consultation process A number of other points were raised by individuals during the consultation process which are perhaps more difficult to address. However, the following require consideration when formulating new policies and directives. • Will it still be technically feasible to ‘hold the line’ at East Cliff and Church Cliff in 60 years time? • The last 1 in 200 year storm event took place in 1824 and destroyed the Cobb at Lyme Regis. Will the next 1 in 200 year storm cause the same damage? • If the total cost for a full repair of the Cobb is unlikely to be granted from normal Government sources, what funding or construction alternatives are there? • Is it likely that personal, private transport using a sustainable source of energy will develop? • How are nature conservation designations likely to change with climate change? What statutory requirements should we consider to keep designated habitats in favourable condition? International European Union Legislation • EC Directive on the Conservation of Wild Birds (79/409/EEC) • EC Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) • Natura 2000 National Legislation • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Coast Protection Act 1949 Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 Environment Act 1995 Environmental Protection Act 1990 Housing Act 2004 Marine Act (Forthcoming) National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act 2006 Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) Act 1990 Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 Protection of Wrecks Act 1973 The Planning and Compensation Act, 2004 Town and County Planning Act 1990 Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 National Policy • • • • • PPS 1: Delivering Sustainable Development PPS 3: Housing PPS 7: Sustainable Development in Rural Areas PPS 9: Biodiversity and Geological Conservation PPS 10: Planning for Sustainable Waste Management • PPS 11: Regional Spatial Strategy • PPS 12: Local Spatial Planning • PPG 14: Development on Unstable Land (esp. 69 • • • • Annex 1: Landslides and Planning) PPG 20: Coastal Development PPS 25: Development and Flood Risk? UK Biodiversity Action Plan (1994) The Local Development Framework Regional and Local Policy Guidance • Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty Management Plan • Dorset Biodiversity Strategy • South Devon and Dorset Coastal Advisory Group’s Shore Line Management Plan (and forthcoming SMP2) • Southwest England Regional Spatial Strategy • Dorset Coast Strategy (1999) • World heritage Site Management Plan Useful websites http://www.dorsetaonb.org.uk/ - Dorset Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/server/show/ nav.1118 - English Heritage Grants Scheme http://www.southwestcoastpath.com/index.cfm - South West Coast Path National Trail http://www.southwestcoastpath.com/main/useful_info/ news.cfm#temp - South West Coast Path – trail closures news http://www2.clovelly.co.uk/ - Clovelly, North Devon http://www.24hourmuseum.org.uk/bristol/news/ ART59902.html - Skomer Island webcam information http://www.norfolkcoastaonb.org.uk/content/maps/ mapvms.html - Visitor management zoning on the Norfolk coast http://www.sdadcag.org/SMP.html - South Devon and Dorset Coastal Advisory Group SMP http://www.jurassiccoast.com/ - Jurassic Coast World Heritage Site http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/leisure/access/ coastal/ - Natural England Coastal Access information 70 71 Appendix 1 - Public Questionnaires The Dorset Coast Forum is undertaking work to assess the long-term potential effects of climate change and sea level rise on the Black Ven and The Spittles National Trust site. In 60 years time it is likely that Black Ven will have changed dramatically and we would very much like to know your thoughts on this. 1. Are you local or a visitor to the area? 2. Please indicate your age in the boxes below Under 18 £ 19 – 29 £ 30 – 39 £ 40 – 49 £ 50 – 59 £ Over 60 £ 3. What attracted you to the area today? 4. With regard to the media coverage on climate change and sea level rise, do you feel your understanding of the issues is Very good £ Good £ Fair £ Not good £ Poor £ 5. Do you find predictions on climate change and sea level rise confusing? If so, how do you think they can be better communicated? 6. Black Ven will continue to attract geologists and amateur fossil hunters but access to this area may become more difficult. How could safe access to the site be best achieved? 7. Do you think sea level rise at this site will have any effect on the local habitats and species? If so, what do you think these effects might be? 8. Do you think we should attempt to stop (or slow down) the landslip process? If so, how might this be achieved? 72 9. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the South Coast and West Country tourist industries are predicted to expand. What problems are likely to be associated with an increase in visitor numbers at this site? 10. How could this predicted increase in visitor numbers be best managed? 11. If the Charmouth Road becomes threatened by land slippage, what should be done? Are there other locations for a major car park nearby? 12. What other options could be available to help with access to this area, e.g. public transport options or new areas for car parks? 13. Who do you think is responsible for coastal protection in this area? 14. How important is it that the stretch of the South West Coast Path between Lyme Regis and Charmouth is directly on the edge of the coast? Please underline. Very important Important Neither important nor unimportant Unimportant 15. How important do you think Black Ven is to the local economy? Please underline. Very important Important Neither important nor unimportant Unimportant 16. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, and the environmental impacts of global air travel, would you be more inclined to take more holidays in the UK in future? If not, please give reasons. Thank you for your time. 73 The Dorset Coast Forum is undertaking work to assess the long-term potential effects of climate change and sea level rise on the Brownsea Island National Trust site. In 50 years time it is likely that Brownsea Island will have changed dramatically. Please spare a few moments to share your thoughts… 1. Do you find information in the media on predictions about climate change and sea level rise confusing? 2. Do you think this area is at risk from sea level rise over the next 50 years? 3. Do you think sea level rise at this site will have any effect on the local habitats and species? If so, what do you think these effects might be? 4. Are you aware that the northern part of the island is a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and included in the Poole Harbour Ramsar Site and Special Protection Area (SPA)? 5. How do you expect Brownsea Island to be protected against sea level rise and flooding over the next 50 years? 6. Who do you think is responsible for coastal protection in this area? 7. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the South Coast and West Country tourist industries are predicted to expand. What problems are likely to be associated with an increase in visitor numbers at this site? 74 8. Do you think visitor numbers need to be regulated at this site? If so, how might this be achieved? 9. What attracted you to Brownsea Island? 10. Which part(s) of the island did you visit today? 11. What services do you consider important for an enjoyable visit to this site? e.g. toilets, café, gift shop, access to beach etc. 12. What would put you off returning to this site in the future? 13. How important do you think Brownsea Island is to the local economy? 14. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, and the environmental impacts of global air travel, would you be more inclined to take more holidays in the UK in future? If not, please give reasons. Thank you for your time. 75 The Dorset Coast Forum is undertaking work to assess the long-term potential effects of climate change and sea level rise on the Studland peninsula National Trust site. In 60 years time it is likely that Studland peninsula will have changed dramatically. Please spare a few moments to share your thoughts… 1. Do you find information in the media on predictions about climate change and sea level rise confusing? 2. Do you think this area is at risk from sea level rise over the next 60 years? 3. Do you think sea level rise at this site will have any effect on the local habitats and species? If so, what do you think these effects might be? 4. How do you expect the Studland peninsula to be protected against sea level rise and flooding over the next 60 years? 5. Who do you think is responsible for coastal protection in this area? 6. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, the South Coast and West Country tourist industries are predicted to expand. What problems are likely to be associated with an increase in visitor numbers at this site? 7. What services do you consider important for an enjoyable visit to this site? e.g. toilets, car park, café, gift shop, access to beach etc. 76 8. What would put you off returning to this site in the future? 9. Increased maintenance costs for the Bournemouth – Swanage ferry due to climate change and sea level rise (such as realignment of the slipways and repairs to Ferry Road) in the future may mean the operation is no longer commercially viable. If the ferry ceased to operate, how would this affect Studland and Purbeck as a whole? 10. How important do you think the Studland peninsula is to the economy of Purbeck? 11. How did you travel to the site today? 12. What alternative forms of transport would you be happy to use to reach this site? e.g. on foot, bicycle, bus, boat etc. 13. A suggested remedy to solve transport problems envisaged for the future (e.g. if the ferry ceases to operate) is a light railway running from Wareham via Corfe Castle to Studland. Do you think this is an achievable idea? Are there any alternatives? 14. With the prospect of warmer, drier summers, and the environmental impacts of global air travel, would you be more inclined to take more holidays in the UK in future? If not, please give reasons. Thank you for your time.