1997 Mastermind Mock Draft - Fantasy Football Mastermind

Transcription

2013 Pre-Season Draft Guide
Version II
July 26th, 2013
17th Issue; Copyright 2013 Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc.
Reproductions, adaptations, re-distribution, representation of this product in any form whatsoever without
written consent of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
Introduction - A Greeting from Michael Nazarek
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Page 3
News & Notes – What’s New in the Guide & News from the NFL
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Page 6
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Page 8
Page 13
Page 22
Page 29
Page 39
Page 49
Page 56
Page 61
Page 68
Page 80
Page 86
Page 98
Page 109
Page 127
Page 139
Page 145
Page 147
Page 151
Page 190
Page 208
Page 217
Page 222
Page 230
Page 257
Page 267
Page 268
RB Player Profiles – Three STUDs Lead the Way…
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Page 285
WR Player Profiles – Calvin and Brandon Rule the Roost…
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Page 317
TE Player Profiles – Jimmy Graham Stands Alone…
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Page 356
PK Player Profiles – Grab a Top 8 Guy Late!
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Page 374
IDP Sleepers/Creepers/Rookies & Strategies – by Steve Yerger
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Page 388
Master’s Trading Edge 2013 Version – by John Cooney
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Page 399
Fantasy Articles
"The 2013 FFMastermind.com Draft Plan" - Michael Nazarek
“Designing Your Draft Strategy 2013” – Chris Rito
“The Ten Demandments” – God (via John Holler)
“Strength of Schedule 2013” – John Cooney
“Coaching Carousel 2012” – John Holler
“Movers & Shakers: Adjusting Draft Strategy” – Chris Rito
“The ABCs of Auction Draft Leagues in 2013” – Steve Yerger
“The 2013 NFL Schedule…” – John Holler
“Exploding: 2013’s Third-Year Receivers” – John Cooney
“The Tricks of the Trade in 2013” – Chris Rito
"Busting the Wedge - Points via Return Specialists" - J. Cooney
"RBBC: The Four Most Hated Letters in FF" - Chris Rito
"Get Out the Handcuffs!" - John Cooney
"Hangin' in the Red Zone 2013" - John Holler
"Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues in 2013" - John Cooney
"Zigging and Zagging Through Your Draft" - H.D. Coelho
"Magic QB Handcuffs" - Chris Rito
"Player Percentage: Who's on the Field & Who Isn't?" - J. Holler
"Fantasy Impact: Pass-Catching RBs" - John Cooney
2013 Sleeper Preview – by Michael Nazarek
2013 Creeper Preview – by Michael Nazarek
2013 Rookie Preview – by John Holler
2013 Ofensive Line Analysis - The Big Uglies – by John Cooney
2013 Dynasty Player Rankings & Draft Strategies – by B. Lathrop
2013 Specialty Player Rankings – Coming in early August
QB Player Profiles – Brees & Rodges at the Top, But...
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(C)opyright 2013 Fantasy Football Mastermind
2
Introduction
Introduction
June 28, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
Welcome to the 17
th
annual Fantasy Football Mastermind Pre-Season Draft Guide!
Wow. I can't believe it's been nearly 20 years online! This first cut represents only the start of a
very experienced and rich in fantasy football information content living document. There are
more than 235 pages herein, and it will likely grow to be more than double in size (last year's
final cut was nearly 600 pages). With this version you'll find 10 fantasy articles with at least
another dozen on the way.
In the initial version of this guide, I offer the June cut of the Official 2013 FFMastermind.com
Draft Plan, along with my comprehensive fantasy sleeper and creeper features. Future articles
will cover Summer's Burning Questions andfother timely topics. I'll also be personally handling
all the News & Notes Updates in the guide along with the Premium Quick Bits News & Views
(debuting in early August) posted directly online. After consulting with our staff, I've developed
all fantasy player projections within this guide (save IDP). They are offered after WEEKS of
intense analysis regarding the current state of the NFL and all 32 teams researched individually.
Anytime there is a major development with regard to flucuations in player values, there will be
an update, even if that takes place in between our normal schedule of updates.
FFMastermind.com remains dedicated towards being the most up-to-date fantasy football
information service this summer, and we'll prove that to you in this guide over the long haul.
Senior fantasy writer John Holler has penned three of the initial 10 articles herein (10
Demandements, 2013 Schedule, & 2013 Coaching Carousel), as well as helped me extensively
with the player profiles within the guide. Holler also returns as our Rookie Specialist with regard
to that content within this guide and our web site. In addition to his initial preview coming in
July, he will offer at least two rookie updates over the coming weeks once training camps begin,
as rookie gain their footholds within their respective teams in the NFL. Of course, Holler will
also be helping me write our annual Training Camp In-Depth Team Capsules with Special Camp
Tidbits to debut later in August.
Exclusive staff writer (and Kansas City Chiefs correspondent) John Cooney offers articles in
version I of this guide regarding Third-Year Breakout WRs and Strength of Schedule for 2013.
He’s also handling our ADP charts in the 2013 Masters Trading Edge feature, as well as our
Offensive Lines Analysis (The Big Uglies). In future versions of this guide, Cooney will pen
articles on Pass-Catching RBs, Fantasy Specialty Rankings, Strategies for QB-Weighted Fantasy
Leagues, and Return Specialists. He will also compile our series of Perfect Drafts for your
viewing pleasure.
Indianapolis Colts correspondent and staff writer Chris Rito penned three articles for the first
version of this guide, including a fresh take on Tricks of the Trade for 2013, Tayloring Drafting
Strategies (for different scoring systems), and his special Designing Your Draft Strategy for
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Introduction
2013. Later this summer, Rito returns with another in-depth look at RBBC (Running Back by
Committee) and a special look at the top Back-Up QBs for fantasy owners to keep their eyes on.
Keeper Korner columnist Brent Lathrop offers his Dynasty League cheatsheet and player
analysis in version I of the guide. He will update them with each upcoming release, as well as
offer special looks at certain players in his Keeper Korner Spotlights (coming in August).
Lathrop also penned another Dynasty League Drafting Strategies article for the guide.
Exclusive Staff Writer Eddie Rex is expected to return to contribute his take on the lighter side of
fantasy football’s most controversial topics. Eddie is always informative in an off-beat sort of
way.
As a reminder, we will post links to real expert leagues drafts FFMastermind.com (all the ones I
play in) is participating as they occur this summer, along with draft pick analysis. We've already
posted pick analysis for the FanEx FAD, a draft that ended in early June, as well as the FFIndex
Magazine Mock Draft (my picks and analysis from mid-May).
Our famous Masters List Customizable Cheatsheets MS Excel App. returns in 2013. We have
released versions for both normal performance scoring leagues and those with PPR (Point-PerReception). It contains all FFMastermind.com player projections (incuding team defense and
IDP projections). Input your scoring rules, click the re-order button, and BOOM… Custom
Fantasy Cheatsheets! Every time there is a player rankings update, we'll update the projections
within the Masters List.
Don’t want to download anything to customize your rankings? That’s where our Mastermind
Championship Projections (MCP) Board comes into play. This board returns in 2013 and is
fully customizable and contains detailed projections and comments for more than 475 NFL
players/team defenses! You can print the board with or without comments and it is already
customized for most of the popular scoring systems played online including Yahoo! Sports,
ESPN, and CBS Sportsline! This board will be updated countless times when important news
breaks throughout the summer.
We have plenty more surprises in store for the rest of the summer, all will be released in good
time. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we want to give subscribers plenty of time to read all
herein as we get rolling with training camps opening in late July.
I heartily thank each and every writer who contributed to this guide. It's the heart and soul of
FFMastermind.com, and they should all be proud. As you read this guide, please keep in mind it
is a “living” document. That means it will constantly be changing through the first week or two
in September. Player rankings will change (a lot). Sleepers may become creepers, and vice
versa. If you purchased one of the fantasy magazines out there in book stores this summer, you
can toss those aside right now. They are out-of-date and have content from back in May or
earlier. We have worked long and hard to try to give you the most comprehensive, current, and
accurate fantasy football guide on the market. If you have a question, please don’t hesitate to ask
me ([email protected]). I will do my best to answer it in a prompt manner. What we
present to you in this living and growing guide is our in-depth analysis of the current situation
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Introduction
with regard to fantasy potential of current NFL players. 17 YEARS of experience and intuition
are what guides us, pure and simple. Enjoy.
Sincerely,
- Michael Nazarek
CEO/President of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc.
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5
News and Notes
News and Notes
UPDATED: July 26, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
This section of the guide will discuss the latest happenings in the NFL, which may have a direct
influence in the world of fantasy football. With each new release of the guide, there will be an
updated "News and Notes" section included to keep you informed of the latest news and rumors
which have occurred since the previous release. We will archive the earlier sections for
everyone's viewing convenience. As in years past, we will be using this feature to inform you
about sections of the guide that will be written over the next 2+ months. Remember, this is a
“living” document. Just because we release it, doesn’t mean it will sit and become stale over
time with no updates. You paid hard earned money for the latest fantasy and NFL information,
and that is exactly what we will give you, from now through the first week in September.
Now… let me get to what is and what isn’t in this initial early release of the guide. This
summer, our Premium Mock Draft is being replaced by our Masters Vegas League Draft, a real
league, which will be a combination of myself, staff members, and chosen premium subscribers
whom use our Subscriber forum. As a result, you will find no reference to the draft in this guide.
We have 10 initial fantasy articles for your viewing pleasure with this release, including our
annual Ten Demandments feature. We will also be adding several articles in the coming weeks,
covering RBBC, Pass-Catching RBs, The Return Game (Busting the Wedge), The Perfect
Drafts (PPR & Non-PPR) and several other new articles. Our annual Rookie preview will be
released in July, while our Training Camp In-Depth Team Capsules are set for an August
release. This initial release contains special Sleeper and Creeper previews, which will see
multiple updates. A group total of Seven Cheat Sheets are available in the normal PDF on-line
viewing format.
Keeper Korner columnist Brent Lathrop offers his Dynasty League
Cheatsheets once again this year. The MASTERS LIST Customizable Cheatsheet MS Excel
App. has also been released and updated several times already for your viewing pleasure. As
usual, we've incoporated our statistical projections into the Masters List. Our annual
EXECUTIVE DRAFT MASTER (EDM) MS Excel App. has also been released and updated,
as well. Our 2013 Mastermind Championship Projections (MCP) Board has debuted and is
fully customizable and contains detailed projections and comments for more than 475 NFL
players/team defenses! This board will be updated countless times when important news breaks
throughout the summer. We fully expect this guide to grow to more than 500 pages by the first
week of September, and the updates to number more than half a dozen.
Update 7/26: As you can see, we’ve added 9 articles to this guide in version II. They include the
following topics: Player Playing Percentages, Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues, Magic QB
Handcuffs, actual positional Handcuffs for all 32 NFL teams, RBBC Analysis, Pass-Catching
RBs, Hangin’ in the Red Zone, Fantasy Analysis of Return Specialists and Zigging and Zagging
in your fantasy draft. In addition, John Holler returns with his latest analysis of the Rookie Class
of 2013 for the present and beyond. Furthermore, we’ve released Brent Lathrop’s Dynasty
Rankings Update with a look at position battles. We’ve filled out the player profiles and updated
the rankings (including Dynasty) and projections as we head into training camps. In addition,
John Cooney updated the ADP Charts for the Master’s Trading Edge. A big thanks to the entire
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News and Notes
staff for helping make this cut of the guide what it is, 400+ pages of great fantasy football
information, strategies, and rankings. And training camps are just now starting!
We won’t rest until every pertinant piece of information we can cram into this guide will be in it.
That’s no promise, that’s a fact. Of course, we continue to update our “NFL Quick Bits” page
constantly as news breaks and our special "Premium Quick Bits News & Views" preseason
feature returns in early August with viewpoints concerning key NFL Quick Bits. Finally, with
all of the training camps still dormant, we'll begin the release of this weekly "News and Notes"
in a month or so. Good luck to everyone with drafts this week!
~ end ~
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Fantasy Articles
The 2013 FFMastermind.com Draft Plan
Version I: Late June
June 28, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
In the past, subscribers have asked me to get into exact detail regarding how I draft and the
specifics regarding how I analyze the draft, my team needs, and how the actions of owners
around me cause me to alter (or move forward) with my Master draft plan. Thus, the official
FFMastermind.com Draft Plan was born. This plan is developed to inform subscribers of how I
actually “think on the fly” during a draft. As I've done the past three years, I’ll go in rounds of
two’s and make distinctions for non-PPR and PPR leagues as well as the occasional QB heavy
league. I can tell you I no longer play in basic scoring leagues and only play in 12-14 team
leagues. Most of my leagues are PPR, but not all of them. Most leagues have ten starters, so I’ll
take you through the first 10 rounds of my drafting process. This initial version of the plan is
based upon ADP taken from MyFantasyLeague.com in late June, 2013. I will be updating the
plan throughout the summer, as needed. Let’s get right to the first round…
ROUNDS #1-#2
Pick 1.01 – 1.06: There are five RBs I'd choose from for this pick, along with WR Calvin
Johnson. The mantra regarding QBs has not changed. The only way I would draft a QB here is
if the league weighted QB heavy with 6-points per TD pass, and only if I knew I could NOT get
a top 7 QB with my second round pick. As for my second round pick, if I have an elite STUD
RB on my roster, then I’d weigh best available RB or WR with my next choice. If a top 8 WR is
available, I’d likely take him here. In QB-heavy leagues, if I took a QB in the first round, I’d
take a RB with my next pick, unless a top 5 WR was still on the board and I felt I could get a top
14 RB in the third round.
Sample rosters after two rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Jamaal Charles
Pick 1.07 - 1.12(14): You must assume that a top 5 RB won’t be available when your turn
arrives. If one is, then jump on him and consider the best available WR in the second round
(especially in PPR leagues). Drafting late in the first round, you get an early second round pick.
That’s a good thing considering you won’t get a top 5 RB. In PPR leagues, I target the best
available WR & RB with my first two picks. A combination of A.J. Green and Alfred Morris is
preferable to one of LeSean McCoy and Morris since it’s a long time until your third pick. You
would then be lucky to draft WR Victor Cruz as your #1 WR. In a non-PPR league, if you draft
two RBs first, then a player such as WR Percy Harvin could slide to you in the third, making
taking two RBs first in non-PPR leagues more viable. That said, in most cases, I'd still prefer to
go RB/WR or WR/RB in non-PPR leagues for a more balanzed approach. In QB-heavy leagues,
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I take a top 7 QB first if you know he won’t last until your second pick. I’d ensure that I take a
RB with my other pick.
Sample rosters after two rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy
ROUNDS #3-#4
Pick 3.01 – 3.06: In PPR leagues, with a RB/WR in the fold, if a top 14 RB is still on the board
like RB DeMarco Murray, I’d grab him here. ADP indicates that is a decent chance of
happening. The only thing that would stop me is if QB Aaron Rodgers was still on the board
early in the third round. Let’s say that isn’t the case, so Murray is the pick. With my late 4th
round pick, I’d go with a WR for sure, someone like WR Jordy Nelson (Tier #4 WR). In a nonPPR league, let’s assume I went RB/WR in the first two rounds, so I turn to a RB if a player like
RB DeMarco Murray is available early in the third. Follow that pick up with WR Hakeem Nicks
late in the 4th round. In a QB-heavy league, with a QB/RB combo, I’d turn to WR early in the
third, assuming a player like WR Larry Fitzgerald was available, followed up with another RB
late in the 4th like RB Frank Gore.
Sample rosters after four rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Jordy Nelson
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Hakeem Nicks
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Larry Fitzgerald, RB Frank Gore
Pick 3.07 – 3.12(14): In PPR leagues, a player like WR Victor Cruz could slide to late in the
third round due to his contract situation. Follow that pick with a RB like RB Frank Gore and
you have a solid RB/RB/WR/WR roster. In non-PPR leagues, let’s assume I went RB/WR early
and now go with a top 20 RB like RB Frank Gore if available. Then I take a WR like WR
Vincent Jackson early in the 4th round. In a QB-heavy league, with a QB/RB combo, I’d turn to
WR late in the third, assuming a player like WR Roddy White was available, followed up with
another RB early in the 4th like RB Darren Sproles.
Sample rosters after four rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris, WR Victor Cruz, RB Frank Gore
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant, RB Frank Gore, WR Vincent Jackson
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Roddy White, RB Frank Gore
ROUNDS #5-#6
Pick 5.01 – 5.06: In PPR leagues, I would target a top 2 Tier TE here, taking TE Jason Witten if
available early in the 5th. With my late 6th round pick, I’d grab my starting QB, a player such as
QB Tony Romo. In a non-PPR league, I would target an elite TE and take him here. Let's say
that is TE Tony Gonzalez. Late in the 6th round, I’d grab my starting QB, a player such as QB
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Fantasy Articles
Tony Romo. In a QB-heavy league, I’d target a #2 WR here, someone like WR Dwayne Bowe,
followed by a top 5 TE like TE Tony Gonzalez.
Sample rosters after six rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jason
Witten, QB Tony Romo
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Larry Fitzgerald, RB Frank Gore, WR
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez
Pick 5.07 – 5.12(14): In PPR leagues, now is the time to grab a top 3 Tier QB like QB Tony
Romo, followed by my starting TE if TE Tony Gonzalez is available. In non-PPR leagues, target
a top 3 Tier QB like QB Tony Romo. Follow that pick up with your starting TE, say TE Tony
Gonzalez. In a QB-heavy league, I’d take a top 5 TE here like TE Jason Witten, followed by my
#2 WR, a player like WR Vincent Jackson.
Sample rosters after six rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris, WR Victor Cruz, RB Frank Gore, QB Tony Romo, TE
Tony Gonzalez
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant, RB Frank Gore, WR Vincent Jackson, QB
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Roddy White, RB Frank Gore, TE
Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe
ROUNDS #7-#8
Pick 7.01 – 7.06: In PPR leagues, I’d take a hard look at my #3 RB. One player sliding is
Broncos RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, likely due to the fact that rookie RB Giovani Bernard was
drafted as a possible starter down the line. Late in the 8th, I look for a #3 WR, and take a sleeper
like WR Kenny Britt. In a non-PPR league, I’d grab the best available RB for my #3, say RB
Rashard Mendenhall, and follow that up with a #3 WR like WR Mike Williams. In a QB-heavy
league, I’d go for my #3 RB early in the 7th, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I’d follow that pick up
with my #3 WR, such as WR Kenny Britt.
Sample rosters after eight rounds
Witten, QB Tony Romo, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Kenny Britt
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Kenny Britt
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Fantasy Articles
Pick 7.07 – 7.12(14): In PPR leagues, I’d target a #3 RB late in the 7th, such as RB Ahmad
Bradshaw, followed by my #3 WR, such as WR Kenny Britt. In non-PPR leagues, I’d take my
#3 RB late in the 7th, such as RB Rashard Mendenhall. I’d follow that pick up with a #3 WR,
such as WR Mike Williams. In a QB-heavy league, I’d take my #3 RB here, such as RB
BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I’d follow that pick up with my #3 WR, such as WR Mike Williams.
Sample rosters after eight rounds
Tony Gonzalez, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Kenny Britt
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams
Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Mike Williams
ROUNDS #9-#10
Pick 9.01 – 9.06: In PPR leagues, I’d target my backup QB, such as QB Ben Roethlisberger,
followed by my #4 WR, such as WR Chris Givens. In a non-PPR league, I’d target my #4 WR
here, such as WR Lance Moore, then follow up with my backup QB, such as QB Ben
Roethlisberger. In a QB-heavy league, I’d grab my backup QB here, such as QB Ben
Roethlisberger, and follow that pick up with my #4 WR, such as WR Lance Moore.
Sample rosters after ten rounds
Witten, QB Tony Romo, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Kenny Britt, QB Ben Roethlisberger,
WR Chris Givens
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams, WR Lance
Moore, QB Ben Roethlisberger
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Kenny Britt, QB Ben
Roethlisberger, WR Lance Moore
Pick 9.07 – 9.12(14): In PPR leagues, I’d target my #4 WR, such as WR Lance Moore, followed
by my backup QB, such as QB Carson Palmer. In non-PPR leagues, I’d target my #4 WR, such
as WR Lance Moore, followed by my backup QB, such as QB Andy Dalton. In a QB-heavy
league, I’d grab my backup QB here, such as QB Ben Roethlisberger, and follow that pick up
with my #4 WR, such as WR Chris Givens.
Sample rosters after ten rounds
Tony Gonzalez, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Kenny Britt, WR Lance Moore
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams, WR Lance
Moore, QB Andy Dalton
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Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Mike Williams, QB Ben
Roethlisberger, WR Chris Givens
The six sample rosters you see above have many of the same players in them. Make note of
these players, as they are most definitely my favorite players for the first 10 rounds of fantasy
drafts this summer. Once you enter round #11, you should be targeting specific sleeper players
and consistent veteran fantasy producers for depth on your roster. Always make note of the
BYEs for each player you draft. You don’t want to ever get caught with both of your QBs or
TEs having the same BYE week. Above all, be prepared with your own specific draft plan when
it is drafting time. Whether it is based upon the 2013 Mastermind Plan or not, always be flexible
and ready to adjust your strategy on the fly. And don’t get upset if your favorite player is drafted
one slot before you planned to take him. NO ONE is irreplaceable! Have fun, good luck, and
happy drafting!
~ end ~
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Fantasy Articles
Designing Your Draft Strategy 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Publisher’s Note from Michael Nazarek: In case you weren't aware, Chris Rito and I won our
4th FanEx title in 2012. As a result, I asked Chris to offer his solid fantasy football draft
strategy blueprint for our subscribers to consider for the second year in a row. I highly
recommend subscribers take the time to read the following article, as it will offer great insight
into planning your fantasy football draft strategy for 2013. Of course, I have written the official
2013 Mastermind Draft Plan for your reading pleasure as well. Just remember, Chris and I
couldn’t have been so successful in FanEx if we hadn’t learned to listen to each other and
perfect a “give and take” dynamic.
In my oldest league (a local redraft with folks from work), we have an interesting
tradition on draft day. We draw numbers on draft day, and that number is the order in which we
get to select our first round draft position in an otherwise regular serpentine draft. This practice
brings some interesting elements into the draft planning, elements that I feel make me a better
drafter in my other leagues.
First, it forces me to evaluate a draft strategy from every position on the draft board. I
cannot go into draft day planning on having the 3rd pick, or the 7th pick, or the last pick in the
round - I have to be ready for anything. Secondly, I do not know who will be drafting around me
until moments before the draft; those who have read my articles on trading know that I am a big
proponent of knowing the tendencies of the other owners in your league, and using this
knowledge to my advantage in formulating a strategy. So the best I can do is to think about
which position in the draft gives me the biggest advantage (based on my personal cheat sheets,
and the aforementioned tendencies), and aim to land in that position in the draft. When you plan
for such a draft, it then allows you to be ready for other drafts in which you know your position - you have already worked out twelve different strategies for another league!
In this article, I hope to share some early thoughts on my preferences and strategies from
each position of the draft in 2013. Of course, some of you are in smaller or larger leagues, and
these strategies may not be in play for you. Also, keep in mind that these are based on my biases
and player rankings, and not necessarily those of the rest of the Mastermind staff. The final
factor is that I am also basing much on the mid-summer ADP of players in the early rounds of
drafts; as the season approaches, there may be some significant changes due to injuries, etc., that
may alter these strategies. But...I hope that the philosophies included here will still be useful for
you as you plan for your own drafts this summer even if the details change a bit.
Overall
There are a few things I will keep in mind this year as I draft, beliefs which permeate all of the
strategies to follow:
QB
• A "Big Five" QB (Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Newton, Brady) exists, and there is a
measurable drop off at the position after the top 5.
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•
•
•
However, drafting a top signal caller high will not necessarily give you a huge leg up. I
generally do not take a QB high, and this year should be no exception. The position goes
twelve-deep with quality starters, so being the last to draft a starting QB should pay off.
The next tier of passers is underrated and can put up very solid numbers while using
only a 6th-8th round pick on them (Ryan, Stafford, Eli, Kaepernick, Luck, RG3, Romo)
There is value to be had with much later selections that could be tag-teamed to possibly
produce stellar numbers (Wilson, Palmer, Bradford, Rivers, Flacco, Cutler)
RB
•
•
•
C.J.Spiller is going way too high (being drafted in the early 1st round) for my comfort
level, as he is a guy playing behind an O-line that lost both starting guards and will likely
be starting a rookie QB. I like his talent, but he likely will not be on my roster as a result.
On the other hand, there are several proven backs that are going too late and that will
provide draft-day value...either due to perception of age (S.Jackson, Gore) or recovery
from injury (McFadden, Jones-Drew, Murray). It may be possible to wait until late
2nd/early 3rd to draft a RB#1 and get 2 or more of these bell-cow backs.
Some new or part time backs will provide value and explosive potential in later rounds,
and will make an early pick of RB#3 less important as it normally would be in a draft.
WR
•
•
•
I only see 4 guys (C.Johnson, Marshall, Green , Bryant) as totally without question marks
at the position, and that must be taken early to assure a top WR option.
If you miss out on these four, then grab as many as possible from the next tiers and load
up on bodies, especially in PPR leagues; the position is deep, but lacking at the top.
Only three big name receivers switched teams this year; two of them are Wes Welker
and Greg Jennings, who each left a studly QB and passing system. One went to play with
Christian Ponder, one to play with Peyton Manning. Guess which one retains his ADP...
TE
•
•
Graham is going as high as the late first round and definitely by the mid-2nd round. I
have never before recommended drafting a TE that high based on the relative value of
the position, but I might try to snag Graham this year. The position is very weak this year
at the top, with significant risk among the usual suspects and top options; he stands out.
What to do with Gronk? I think he is worth the risk, and should be going higher than his
current 5th round ADP.
First pick
This one is kind of simple. If you don't think Adrian Peterson is your pick as the top
player in the draft, you absolutely HAVE to move down. Even if you have some other idea of a
higher-rated player (and I admit...I toyed with Foster as the 1.01 before his summer calf injury),
everyone else has him #1, so you should trade down and help your roster overall. He is the top
pick in any draft I have seen thus far (even in QB-friendly scoring systems), and you either have
to take him yourself, or get a king's ransom from someone else who will. The real key is what do
you do with your next selection?
I generally do not like being at one end of the draft or the other, and this year I again
think that the top of the draft is difficult place to be. In most years, the end of the second round is
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in the midst of a huge WR run after a long RB run in round 1, but this year I think there will be
some more WR interlopers in the top 15 picks that will let some people slide. Sitting at the turn
at 2.12 and 3.01, for example, previously the best bet was a pair of top WRs here, but this time I
think that the best strategy likely will be to take a stud WR#1 (if one is still there) and a RB#2. In
a PPR, you still may have to think about a pair of WRs since the top tier should be gone and at
least 9-10 more will go before you select again at 4.12. You can still get one of the "Big Five"
QBs on my list with one of your picks if you wish, but I would not do so unless the draft and
your cheat sheet dictates that the best value lies there (It probably doesn't on mine)
Second and third picks
Both of these have the same philosophy as pick 1.01, with the exception that you get to
select one of your guys at the turn before at least one other player, and then have to wait to see
what they leave you in round three. In either case, the die is cast for your first selection; at 1.02
you take your favorite of Arian Foster or Doug Martin, and at 1.03 you take the one of these two
that falls to you. Regardless of PPR or non-PPR system, these guys are head and shoulders more
valuable than any other players on the draft board. I have seen some rate Calvin Johnson or
Aaron Rodgers (or even Drew Brees) this high, and a case can be made -- especially in passing
TD = 6 point leagues for the QBs -- but I think that you can still get one of the Big Five QBs in
round 3 and have a much better RB#1 and WR#1.
If one of the Big Four WRs falls to you, you really have to take him in round 2. I have
seen high risk/high reward RBs slide to round 3 as teams at the wrap follow some version of this
philosophy, so some consideration to value might be given to a workhorse every-down RB#2 in
the 3rd round like Steven Jackson or MJD, or a riskier guy like McFadden. I recommend taking
the QB of your choice in round two only if you like having a stud (since the last Big Five guy
could go before you pick in round 4); and then you would have to take the best WR#1 you can
get in round three. If you took a QB in round 2, however, this may be a riskier move since your
first WR will not come until the end of round 4 (really bad if it is a PPR). Personally, I would
risk waiting on a QB, since Tom Brady has actually slid to the 5th round in many drafts, and I
like the depth at QB if he doesn't. I would really like to be in the 2nd slot this year to take
Foster's track record over Martin's; on the other hand, the benefit to drafting 3rd is that you can
perhaps get one of the best stud QBs or the last stud WR or RB#2 before the last two guys "make
the turn" in the draft.
In a 12-team league, I like the 3rd slot a little better if given a choice. You get to draft
before two other guys at the turn in round 2, and I see the talent drop-off happening after about
20 players in the 2013 draft. At 2.10 you only need one surprise or one QB to be drafted (a near
certainty) to be guaranteed to get at two of those players in round 2 and no significant difference
(at this time) in round 1.
Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Pick
This is where the first round draft strategy gets a bit dicey and varies from person to
person, and therefore it could dictate the rest of your early round strategy. Those picking behind
this position will have sit and wait to see what falls to them because I have seen a wide variation
in the selections made in this region so far in 2013. I considered this the "no man's land" in most
drafts in 2012 and I did not want to be drafting here unless something weird happens and one of
the top 3 guys I already mentioned slips to me at 1.04.
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The best value may be had by selecting Calvin Johnson here, and most drafters thus far
have leaned towards Megatron as his ADP of 1.04 attests. And you could easily argue that
taking Megatron + the WR and RB you will get in the middle of the next two rounds will have a
greater differentiation from your opponents through three rounds than you can get by taking your
favorite overall RB#4 here. There are a handful of players (RBs especially) that can be around in
the middle of rounds 2-3 which can give you solid RB production closer to a top RB than many
may expect. The only drawback to taking Megatron at #4 is that it does sort of tie you into
avoiding the top QBs and Jimmy Graham in round 2 or 3, since it would be hard to go into round
4 of your draft missing both a RB#2 and a WR#2.
However, I still think the best bet in these three positions are to take the top RB on your
draft board, and me that is Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and either Trent Richardson or Lesean
McCoy (in PPR leagues), or perhaps Lynch sneaking into the equation also in non-PPR leagues.
Many drafters also like the explosive C.J. Spiller, so maybe this list expands to include him your
favorite RB in this class. Charles and Rice are a step above the others in security, and the
relative lack of confidence in Shady and Beast Mode and the others in early drafts reflects this.
My personal draft board has Charles barely ahead of Rice and Megatron, but these are shades of
gray at this point; all three would be valuable additions at this draft slot. If I am in these three
slots, I look for Charles and then Rice and then Megatron in that order and then look to make
sure that I secure at least one WR through three rounds, the order of selection depending on what
falls to me in rounds 2-3.
Seventh Pick
If you are sitting at the 7th pick, this is the easiest slot on the board....so if you don't want to
think -- this is the spot for you, because you can just sit back and wait for the top six to clear out
your list! This where the first major break in talent takes place on my draft board, so this could
be "no man's land" in 2013. Realistically, I think you absolutely will be able to follow the
strategy I recommended for picks 4-6, since I believe that in most drafts there will be someone
that takes some other surprise (usually T-Rich or Spiller) ahead of this point. This will leave at
least one of the top 6 I defined available for you here, if one is magically still sitting there at
1.07, he has to be your choice in a 12-team league. So what if that doesn't happen, and the top 6
are all gone?
By the time you pick in round 2, you will probably be at the tail end of runs for both
RB#1 and WR#1 - not the place to be. Obviously the top remaining WR here is still a
consideration in 12 team leagues, since the difference between the RB you get at 1.07 and 2.06
may not be much different either - at least not as much as the drop from your favorite WR (next
on my list is Brandon Marshall, but some like Green or Bryant) to, for example, Julio Jones as
your WR#1. Nonetheless, the better call may be to take advantage of selecting the RB you like
best; odds are that someone that you have rated as a top 4-5 RB will still be there and you can
have your choice of a guy that YOU have rated a little more highly than do others. In either case,
you really can’t go wrong here by taking a stud WR or the best remaining RB. No matter what
you do, you should still have plenty of RBs left in round 2 for a solid RB#1 or a REALLY solid
RB#2…or you could even get lucky and snag Graham or the last of the Big Four WRs as your
WR#2. Lots of options are possible here, and no matter what you take in round 1 you should be
okay taking “best player available” in round 2.
However, this is the spot in the draft where the draft strategy may differ between a 10team league and a 12-team league. In a 10-team league there is a much higher likelihood that one
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of the top WRs will get to you at 2.04, so passing on a top WR and snaring a top RB or even
Jimmy Graham should work in your favor. I prefer this strategy of considering the sole
difference-making TE here, even if you do not get a RB#1 you like in round 2. The smaller
league size means that you can even grab a "Big Four" WR in round two and wait on guys like
CJ28, S-Jax, MJD or Demarco Murray as your backs in rounds 3-4 with a huge advantage at
WR#1 and TE. I would take my chances with Graham/DezBryant/S-Jax/Gore (all reasonable
based on ADPs) over Lynch/Julio Jones/CJ28/Wayne, for example.
Eighth and Ninth Picks
Very similar to pick 1.07, I think this is an interesting place to draft in 2012. Regardless
of your RB preference (as described in the last section), there is another mini-break after 1.10 or
so, so you again could sit and wait and simply pluck the best remaining RB (surely Calvin
Johnson will be gone). You will still very likely have a chance at securing a solid RB#1 if you
like...but should you in round 1? I think so. I believe that this is a great position to take
advantage of the great disparity between other people's rankings in the top 9-10 RB#1's in this
year's draft, and I do feel that there are at least nine backs that have top 5 overall potential. Guys
like the ones I mentioned in the last sections all have gone as high as 1.04 or as late as 1.11, so
there should be a glut of solid RBs available around which to build your team. The nice thing
about getting RB#1 value this late in the first round is that you draft early in the second round
and can corral another top talent....well before the guys that spent a top 5 pick on a RB that may
produce somewhat similar numbers.
If you snare a top WR or Graham here, two particular guys I see as offering huge value
in the second round for these draft slots are possibly Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. I believe that
CJ2K will return to something closer to his prior form with the improvements to that O-line in
Tennessee, and Matt Forte should catch even more passes in Marc Trestman's offense. If you do
snag a receiver in round one, you could do a lot worse than getting one of these as your RB#1 at
2.04 or 2.05.
I actually really like giving consideration Brandon Marshall (my choice) or A.J. Green
(ADP choice) in this area. In most drafts, the second round for these draft slots brings a possible
choice of another "Big Four" WR or a very reliable RB#1, and the fantasy owner is left to select
his favorite remaining one or to pair up bye weeks, etc. Even if you are so inclined to snare
Jimmy Graham, the capacity to pair him with either a stud WR or an undervalued RB#1 in round
1-2 gives you the freedom to consider it. In a 12-team league, the third tier of WRs and RBs is
usually just about drying up at the end of round 3, so this also puts you in a nice position to
snatch one of the last few guys on which one can rely every week at one of two key positions.
On the whole, not a bad place to draft this year, especially for an owner that likes to let the draft
come to him.
However, if you are in a ten team league, then strong consideration must be given to
taking the top remaining RB on the board here. While I think that there is better talent and
scoring potential at WR in these slots, I do recognize that there are likely at least one or two of
the Big Four WRs that will make it around the turn and give you a nice 1-2 punch. In this
situation, you play the law of averages and probabilities and assume that a guy like Dez Bryant
can very realistically be your 2nd rounder and take the top remaining RB before those also hit a
cliff. This where the league size changes your strategy; there are simply fewer picks before your
second round selection, so the likelihood of certain players or positions being there in round two
changes dramatically.
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One caveat: if there is a large run on RBs in the first round and all or most of the top
WRs are still there, then at 1.09 you can also consider taking two of the Big Four WRs and
waiting on RBs until round 3. Remember that there is a person with two picks in between, and
the only surefire way of making this work is if you are drafting Megatron as the first WR off the
board here...but there is comfort in knowing that it cannot backfire if you take the WR#2. If this
happens and 1.10 and 2.01 are WR#3 and #4 on your list, you still get the top remaining RB you
would have taken at 1.09 anyway...AND you get the first pick of the non-Megatron stud WRs.
Knowing your league's tendencies, scoring systems, etc. will go a long way to helping you
decide from among many viable options. These slots are highly dependent on what others have
done in round 1 and personal preferences, so basically anything and everything can happen here!
Tenth Pick
As you may have noticed, I have listed 11 potential players already that I think make up
my first round of a draft (Peterson, RB Foster, RB Martin, RB Charles, RB Rice, WR Johnson,
RB McCoy, RB Lynch, RB Richardson, RB Spiller, TE Graham). In most leagues, there will be
ONE drafter that throws a curveball and takes someone else not in my top 10. This year, a prime
candidate to be taken in the top 10 would be Jimmy Graham, a QB or the 2nd WR drafted.
Actually, although I would not consider most of these guys in my top 9, I would not be shocked
if at least one of them got picked in your draft. A.J. Green has an ADP of 1.10, so surely
someone will bite, for example. If so, then the 10th choice is easy as someone has slid to you,
realistically it is most likely that he is from among the RBs I listed in the last section. However,
sitting at the tenth pick in the most common league sizes, you may either be the last pick in the
round or two picks from the end. I will give a brief synopsis of both options here.
If you are in a 10-team league, and assuming that Megatron and 8 of the previous 9 RBs
have been taken, you are at a position to do one of several things. I do NOT recommend even
considering the selection of a stud QB here since the odds of one getting to you at 3.10 is still
very high if you want one. A very common play in many leagues is to take the best two
remaining WRs on the board and this is likely the best move here. This often starts a mini-panic
and helps let some real quality RBs fall to you in 3.10 and 4.01 (which is going to happen this
year anway). As I do not expect more than 1-2 WRs to be gone in the first nine picks, this would
be a solid play as there are only four stud WRs as I have already noted. None of these Big Four
have the same bye week, so there will be no issue there. Unless two of the top 7 highly-regarded
RB from the previous sections slides to you, this is the recommendation I will make (note that it
might be hard to pass up a chance at a backfield of Charles and Richardson, for example, to take
A.J. Green and Dez Bryant). You could also substitute in Graham, and have a similar result and
path forward.
In a 12-team league, things get trickier. There are two teams that will each take two
players before you get that 2.03 selection, and each of them could be thinking along the same
lines as the owner I just described in the preceding paragraph. You simply have to take a top WR
in this slot, whoever that is for you, unless something weird has happened and all the top four
have vanished leaving RBs as the best value. Then in round two, you likely are looking at
snaring the best remaining RB, or considering one of the "Big Four "WRs as your #2, if one still
remains. Either way, I think that you will have a similar chance at a solid 1-2 punch as do the
two players after you in the draft, but you will get to select your favorite of the non-Megatron
WRs. I think that you are going to be nearing the end of the viable high-end RBs by the time you
pick in round three, so you probably are safer going with the RB, but have a higher potential
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payoff if, for example, you take a stud WR#2 and then have a guy like McFadden fall to you in
round 3 as your RB#1 (and he manages to stay healthy -- of course that could be a relative term
for him!). This latter maneuver is not for the faint of heart, but would reap huge dividends if
things fall in line for you.
Eleventh and Twelfth Picks
Philosophically, I think these positions put you in much the same position as the 9th and
10th picks in a ten-team league that I just described. You are limited by what has happened in
front of you in the first round, and have to think ahead to realize what is going to happen before
you select again at 3.11 or 3.12. I think a strong consideration again should be made for either of
these draft slots to drafting a stud WR with your 1st round pick, as there is a solid possibility that
the Big Four might dry up in a 12-team league at the end of the first round if other drafters in the
latter half of the round are also thinking this way. And of course...if you really want a stud QB
(which I do not recommend)...if you pick at 1.11, you know that the guy at 1.12 might take two
RBs or two WRs, but that he is NOT going to take two QBs, so there is no sense in taking one at
1.11. So, you simply take the highest rated RB or WR on your overall board.
Again, in most cases I strongly recommend taking the WR since there is a greater
scarcity at the top of that position AND I really like some undervalued RBs to fall to late in
round three that will suffice as a RB#1 or RB#2. Then if you go WR here, simply take the best
RB at 2.02. As it turns out, the RBs with ADPs around 3.11 were only marginally lower on my
draft board than the guy I took at 2.02, so it could be okay to eschew RB altogether at these
picks, but more than likely not. I believe that someone will take Graham or another non-Calvin
WR and so there should be a chance at getting one of MY top 8-9 RBs with one of these picks. If
your scoring system, or your lineup requirements or your opponents' draft tendencies heavily
favor RBs, maybe flip-flopping these two selections to take the RB first could be more favorable
for you; only you can know how much to value each position.
At 1.12, you obviously do not have to worry about what anyone else will do between
your first two picks. However, you DO need to worry about what will happen before you select
again at 3.12. There will be a small run on the stud QBs, but more importantly the first few tiers
of WRs will also be decimated. For example, in the FAD this year, over half of the picks made
between 2.01 and 3.12 were WRs. I think it makes perfect sense to take at least one stud WR and
see what falls at RB to round 3. Based on ADPs and drafts in which I have participated, it is not
unreasonable to get two of Marshall/Green/Bryant, and then in rounds 3 and 4 take a pair of RBs
from a list of guys like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley and Reggie
Bush. Had you taken a RB with one or both of those picks, you might be looking at a quartet of
AJ Green, Chris Johnson, RB#2 (see round 3 list) and Vincent Jackson. I think most would agree
that the first recommended foursome puts your lineup in a better place.
There is one caveat to consider if you are drafting later in the summer. Simply put, things
can change a LOT between now and the end of the summer -- both in the positive and negative
directions. Heck, a month ago, the TE position was solid at the top until Hernandez's and Gronk's
question marks arose, thus elevating Jimmy Graham into elite desirability status. And look at this
excerpt from the end of last year's strategy article for my strategy at 1.12:
"Adrian Peterson has been drafted VERY low in these early drafts, but a solid camp and
encouraging reports could elevate his ADP into first round status. If this is the case, then
the gloomy scenario I presented would look a lot better if an explosive All-Day or CJ2K was
in your lineup as the 1.12 pick. As I write this in late June, the odds are that Peterson will be
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there at 1.12, and you as an owner has to decide if the early reward is worth the risk of an
uncertain recovery from ACL repair. If he is the All-Day of old, then he is a steal at the turn
to end round one with a current ADP well south of 1.12."
In retrospect, I looked like a genius; in FanEx last year, Mike Nazarek and I tried heavily
but unsuccessfully to trade up for him in round 2...and still very happily got him at 2.09. And
then we rode him to another FanEx title. We also kept Arian Foster at the top of our draft list,
despite a training camp injury that made him fall out of the top 4 on many draft boards last year;
this just in, Foster did okay last year, and would have been the fantasy MVP if not for the guy
they called "Purple Jesus". Watch for things like this over the summer and from camp that could
make guys like Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson be worthy of 2.01
selections although many others may not see them as such. Maybe they will fall an extra round
to get them in round 3....but all those that passed on or missed out on Foster or Peterson were not
as happy as they should have been in 2012. Things can change, so please remember that these
late round analyses and options could be very different in late August than they are as I write this
in mid-June.
So....where is the sweet spot?
What is the best position from which to draft in 2012? I like 1.07 or 1.08 this year as a
place to really shine. You still get a potential shot at having a top RB scorer, and should get a
chance at a Big Four WR if you miss out or pass on Megatron in round 1. I think there is a talent
dropoff at ~20 players, so you are absolutely guaranteed to get two of those guys. Finally, you
also have a very real chance (and I would even say a likelihood if I am drafting at 1.08 in a 12team league) of drafting a difference maker in Jimmy Graham. Personally, I like being in the
middle of the rounds as well, since there are fewer chances for position runs with fewer players
in between, and predicting what will be taken is easier. The first pick is also better than in most
years since I think that this slot also should load your most important three scoring positions
with studs if a Big Four WR falls to you, and maybe even get the top player at all three main
positions if you like a QB at 3.01... plus you get the best fantasy player in the game today. I am
definitely intrigued with the potential for picks in the latter stages of the middle of the round like
positions 1.08 to the end of the round. There are some undervalued studs there and you might be
able to get some real enhanced value in rounds 3-4 before the talent pool really begins to thin.
I do NOT want to be picking in the 4th or 5th spots this year as there is too much
uncertainty and it these slots almost force you into taking a player with that first pick that I
generally do not feel returns overall lineup value as compared to the guys taken 5-6 slots later in
the round; it forces you into drafting for need a bit in rounds 2-3 when the value at RB and
maybe even WR is not going to be there as much. While I like the likely selections at slots 1.04
through 1.06, I think you miss the end of two significant runs, and lose out at both RB and WR
most likely unless you again pin yourself at WR early by taking Megatron.
In the FanEx FAD this year, Mike and I were lucky enough to draft at 1.07 and two of
the top 6 fell to us there (Charles and Rice), as described above. We took Ray Rice and followed
it up with getting the last remaining Big Four WR as I proposed (Dez Bryant), and then came
back with the top guy in the next tier of WRs (Andre Johnson) in round 3. We were hoping to get
Marshall or Graham in round 2, but they went in the final two picks before we selected (drat!).
Overall, we have received several bits of positive feedback from our foes in the FAD that we
have assembled a very solid team (despite having since lost Aaron Hernandez, possibly) We are
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also slated to select at 1.07 in the regular FAD draft later this summer, so we will see if we can
learn from what we have seen and done to get an even better team in that draft.
Conclusion
There you have it - one man's view of the best draft strategies at the top of the 2013
fantasy draft. If your scoring systems differ greatly from the "standard" performance systems, or
if your league size is very different, then there will be some adjustments (perhaps significant
ones) to these strategies that have to be made. Please check out another article I penned in this
draft guide which helps you tailor your draft list based on your scoring system and lineup
requirements; this may change the way you read this article as well! And if there are drafters in
your league that will be making selections that are off-the-wall, this may skew your draft
strategy as you adjust your expectations accordingly. Heck, maybe you just flat-out disagree
with my player assessments - in fact, many of you probably do! The key to making your own
strategies is threefold.
First, determine where the overall talent drop-off lies on your overall board; if given the
choice, align your selection position to where you can maximize getting the highest number of
players before that drop-off (to do this, you have to assume the worst case scenario, that
everyone is working with your same player valuations). Secondly, determine where the top tiers
or significant talent breaks are within each position ranking. Again, make sure your draft position
(if possible) and your strategy account for getting as many top tier guys at as many positions as
possible. Finally and most importantly, get to know the ADPs for scoring systems closest to your
own. A great draft is not taking the guy where you think he SHOULD be drafted, but rather it
lies in taking him no earlier than he NEEDS to be drafted to get him on your roster. If you
combine ADPs with your own rankings and values, and those likely rankings and values of your
fellow drafters, this will allow you to define a positional draft strategy that can help you
maximize your lineup many rounds into your draft, -- not just at the top as I outline here. Best of
luck - and happy drafting!
~ end ~
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The Ten Demandments
June 28, 2013
By God (as told to John Holler)
“In the beginning, he that is God created fantasy football. He looked and said it was good.” Genesis 17:52
God has a history of getting his word out through others. Moses got a lot of the scoops
back in the day. His son carried a lot of messages to the masses. How exactly I figure into this
mix I beyond me, because I have multiple people tell me, “I know Moses and you, sir, are no
Moses.”
To be honest, I didn’t ask for this role. I’m not overly religious. I work on Sundays, so
my visits to His house are rare. But, He is known to speak in mysterious ways and I’m about as
mysterious as He gets. Some contend I’m even sketchy.
When He first pulled me aside, I thought someone had slipped something into my drink. I
didn’t believe him at first until he showed his credentials by painlessly burning off one of my
eyebrows and, after he refused to put it back, I had to make the decision to shave off the other
one. He wanted His flock to know the secrets of fantasy football and to show faith.
Since then, it’s become an annual thing we me and the Big Man. He shows up sometime
after Memorial Day weekend and it usually doesn’t last long. I get the feeling he doesn’t like my
company all that much, but he’s committed to using me. As such, he lays out the 10
Demandments for the coming season. He’s still a little salty that his Commandments aren’t
followed – people get killed, neighbor’s wives are coveted, etc. Demandments don’t allow for
people to cherry-pick or ignore them. If someone steals, He will forgive them. If someone
ignores a Demandment, they will be held accountable on Judgment Day.
These are his 10 Demandments for 2013. Let His word go forth, heed the good news of
the kingdom and you may well find yourself in the Promised Land when the season comes to end
around his kid’s birthday.
The First Demandment
Thou Shalt Honor the Third-Year Prophets – While those of us at FF Mastermind
have been all over the third-year receiver leap in fantasy production from pedestrian to stardom
for years, it’s not been part a of His Demandments before – even though it may well should have
been given the consistent nature of the explosion of receivers entering their third year. Many of
them have been steals in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft because they had yet to break out.
However, this year, the Class of 2011 is already bearing fruit and could be enormous in fantasy
terms – bringing the non-believers into the flock. The list includes wide receivers A.J. Green,
Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Greg
Little, Leonard Hankerson and Jonathan Baldwin and tight ends Kyle Rudolph, Lance
Kendricks, Like Stocker and Rob Housler. You want to get two of those players on your team –
the best upside value would likely be Cobb and Rudolph, but most or all of them will likely be
worthy of having on your roster at some point. We’ve promoted the third-year guys for a long
time. Now He is down with it.
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The Second Demandment
Thou Shalt Cover Thine Ass With the Chosen Ones – Quarterback is going to be as
important a position in this year’s draft as any. There are going to be a series of QB runs – the
first likely coming in the first 15 picks and then again in the turn from the second to third rounds
of the draft and again at the turn of the fourth and fifth rounds when those who haven’t taken the
QB plunge stick their toe in the water. This may involve some work on your end, but faith
without works is dead, according to the Lord. While no draft is predictable, multiple outcomes
can be projected. Depending on where you sit in the draft, your QB game plan has to be flexible.
If, for example, you have the first or second pick and take Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, by
the time the draft works its way back around to you, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady
(at a minimum) will be gone. What makes this critical is an often overlooked nuance to fantasy
football. If an owner lands a stud QB, he or she tends to ignore the position for several rounds.
Translation: if you draft early, you will have no control over whether you get a stud QB or not.
You need to have Plans A, B and C in place. Plan A is to draft a QB in the middle or end of the
first round, land a superstar like Rodgers or Brees and spend the next six rounds attacking the
running back and wide receiver positions with a minimum of five picks (a tight end you love is
an allowable departure from that plan). Plan B is to take a RB or WR stud in the first round and
grab Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, etc. in the second round and go hard
after RBs and WRs for the next four rounds before you even consider taking QB2 (or RG3).
Plan C is to let the majority of the rest of the league pick the QBs off the board in a feeding
frenzy and you wait. And wait. And wait. Under the Plan C rules, you grab two guys in doubleshot fashion. By most ranking systems, the guys who will still be available in 10-12 player
leagues would include Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, etc. Your draft will
fall one of three ways. Be prepared for all options. Even in keeper leagues, if you have Rodgers
or Brees under contract, take the time to find someone who has a complementary schedule.
Plenty of mid-round picks have nice Week 4 schedules when Rodgers is resting. With QB vital
in most leagues, having multiple options to go with on draft day is necessary.
The Third Demandment
Thou Shalt Partake In the Sabbath Feast While Available – Running back has been
devalued in fantasy football, except for those who don’t end up with at least one bell cow. A
decade ago, RBBC (Running Back By Committee) was a four-letter word in the fantasy
community. Now, it’s becoming the norm. There was a time not long ago, that 25 teams had one
fantasy cash cow and backups waiting like understudies in the wings. That is no longer true. It
can be argued that the list of first-round/second-round worthy backs has dropped to about 10.
One would think that would even further devalue running backs. But, as He said in our last
discussion, “Not so fast, my son.” As is usually the case, He knows what He is talking about.
The finite number of running backs is going to force owners to do what they have always done –
make a skeleton of the cow trying to swim across the piranha-infested waters of the Amazon –
except for a different reason. Running backs will still dominate the first couple of rounds, but
because there is so little proven featured back talent, not a wealth of it. If you decide to “go
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rogue” with the third pick and take a quarterback or Megatron, other owners will be like
lemmings running off the icecap to a chilly, watery grave. They’re going to grab running backs
like they’re going out of style. There is no shortage of early mock drafts featuring fantasy
“experts” – don’t get Him started about that term, He’ll talk your ear off – running backs are still
dominating the first 15 picks. Those who decide to “do the opposite” need their dice rolls on
running backs to hit in order to avoid being fodder for the league money pool. Make one of your
first two picks a running back. Not because they deserve to be taken that high, but the ship will
pull out of port without you if you don’t get on board and you will suffer all year long as a result.
Running backs have seen their value diminished in recent years, but those who can get it done,
still lead owners to regular season and league championships. The Stud RB is an endangered
species, which makes having one in your house even more valuable and necessary. Rolling the
dice on a handful of questionable RBs is a death knell for many fantasy owners. Don’t be one of
them. Everyone will be taking risks on their last two or three backs in hopes of striking it rich,
but the more stability you have at RB, the more likely you are to be successful.
The Fourth Demandment
Thou Shalt Bring The Strong Into the Flock – Four years ago, we told fantasy owners
to start stockpiling tight ends. Trying to get on the front end of the wave and ride it out, we saw
that, in a growing pass-happy transformation of the offensive game in the NFL, tight ends – the
big guys who typically were blockers – were going to be a growing fantasy threat. That was
before Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez and a slew of emerging TEs that
have yet to bear fruit. Needless to say, He has smiled at those who paid heed to his
Demandments and jumped on a young stud like Gronk or Graham and rode him to the Promised
Land. Just five years ago, there was Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and everybody else. Things
were so vanilla among tight ends, that many leagues just clumped them in as receivers – which
almost killed the position because aside from the Gonzo-Gates combo, if you didn’t have one of
those two, you didn’t really put much emphasis on tight end. It can be argued that, from a fantasy
perspective, the tight end crop runs 20-deep of quality players. You may not want to be the first
owner to take a tight end, but let your ears perk up when the first one goes. There’s nothing
worse than being on the back end of a run and feeling compelled to make a pick, as opposed to
jumping on or even starting the run. For the sake of argument, in an open draft where all players
are available, if an owner on the end of a draft in a 12-player league picks Graham, by the time
the draft comes back to that same owner, a minimum of four TEs will be off the board. It gives
“free picks” at other positions when other owners take a position you already locked down for
the next eight rounds of the draft. You have three options: be the one who starts the run, be the
one who jumps in with another TE and lets other owners know a run is one or wait until the
water quits bubbling and be left sitting on the dock of the bay. Either be first or riding that first
wave. Otherwise, the talent pool won’t be elite, but, if you double-up in the double-digit rounds
of the draft, you can get by with a TEBC (Tight End By Committee). Don’t be the owner that
ends the run on TE. Either show respect and step up or step off and vulture what remains.
The Fifth Demandment
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Thou Shalt Give An Offering of Faith – What often separates decent fantasy owners
from those who consistently set the league standard is their willingness to take chances. Whether
it’s the FF Mastermind rankings or those from the myriad of mooks that pollute the World Wide
Interweb with their own personal rankings, if there is a player that shocks you that is rated
markedly higher or lower than you think he should be, disregard those rankings. What He has
always said is quite simple – associate yourself with people you accept and want to be with.
Depending on how knowledgeable you are about the role of skill position players, He advises
you take the time in service of Him to go old-school and put pen to paper. It can be at a family
picnic that you didn’t want to go to anyway or a rainy Saturday afternoon. Make your own
rankings of players and then, as the hundreds of other rankings come out, see where you have a
player ranked in comparison, especially where your views differ from the “norm.” Need an
example? There is going to be a wide disparity of views on who is going to be the primary
fantasy back in Cincinnati – plow horse incumbent BenJarvis Green-Ellis or rookie Giovani
Bernard. If you believe Bernard will be the guy, where would you rank him in a team with the
philosophy of giving the starting RB 20 carries a game? If you think Bernard is going to win the
job, but everyone tends to lean toward BGE, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Giovani in the
middle to late rounds. Just keep in mind that, if everyone thinks Green-Ellis is the man, you
don’t have to grab Bernard until after BGE is gone. It’s a gamble. But, as He likes to say, the
world is changed by those willing to take risks. After all, it’s your team and nobody else’s. Use
the late rounds to take players YOU want, not what the list tells you. Those people who set the
rankings aren’t doing so specifically for your team. Nobody more the Him believes in blind faith.
Pay witness and use the late rounds to take risks on players you feeling strongly in – whether the
rest of the league owners think you’re a heretic who has lost his mind. Drive fast. Take chances.
The Sixth Demandment
Thou Shalt Pray To the Sun In the East – This is a Demandment that has remained
relatively consistent, but perhaps no more than it is in 2013. Transport yourself at a late-Sunday
morning in October or November and you have to get your lineup in. Even in leagues that allow
changes up until game time, the one thing you are certain of is that 90 minutes before the early
Sunday games start at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, you know who is active and who is inactive. You
also likely know whether an injured player is “good to go” or not. Why is this important? When
you compile your draft board and you have two players that you view as being essentially equal,
He advises taking the player who toils on the East Coast. An example: You have Percy Harvin
and Reggie Wayne rated as essentially the same. After Week 5, Harvin has just two games that
start at the tradition 1 p.m. Eastern Time time slot. Wayne plays his final five games – including
every game in any potential fantasy football playoff scenario – at 1 p.m. Eastern. If Wayne is
banged up and isn’t going to play, you have 90 minutes to scrape your bench or the waiver wire
for a replacement. If Harvin has a migraine and they announce at 2:30 EDT that he is out, you’re
options have been likely reduced significantly. Too many owners won’t dump a player they
know will get claimed to take a zero at one position for one week. Fantasy teams get burned that
way. The reason it is a problem this year is that the fantasy power has shifted west. Two years
ago, Denver, San Francisco and Seattle weren’t fantasy hot spots. They are now. The problem is
going to come to a head, because you still have San Diego, Arizona and Oakland with personnel
that plays home games at 4:15 p.m. ET Sunday when not in prime time. To put this in terms He
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hopes you can understand, look no further than last year’s draft. How many QBs went before
Peyton Manning? Did Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson even get drafted? Guess what? Not
only are all three of those guys likely to be viewed as weekly starters this year or, at a minimum,
the 1B in a two-headed fantasy QB tandem, but so are all of their receivers and their primary
running backs. The proliferation of prime time games has diluted this Demandment in the past,
but, given the rise of talent in the West – San Francisco, Seattle and Denver are all legitimate
Super Bowl contenders – opting to take Eastern and Central Time Zone players when all things
are equal is vital. As He likes to say, “A little one shall lead them all.” It’s the little decisions that
can make a big difference when a league title hangs in the balance. Just ask Reggie Wayne.
The Seventh Demandment
Thou Shalt Read the Good Book and Learn From It – Fantasy drafts are full of
unknowns. Every person sees it differently. As you mark selected players off your own draft list,
there will be a couple of times when you say, “Who is that?” and just as many as you say,
“F*&#! How was he still available?” There are so many things that are out of your control, but
there are certain things that are within your control. Among those is the schedule as it is printed
out. Fortunately, members of His flock at FFM have made a point to highlight this for you,
showing you which fantasy players will have the most advantageous schedule during your
fantasy playoffs and who will have a Bataan Death March. Also, a Hail Mary-style mantra is to
make sure when you’re filling out your roster, before you make a pick you pay close attention to
when the player you selected has his bye week is. It seems so simple, but every year in just about
every league, some owner is behind the 8-ball with one week of fantasy Hell – hopefully, you’re
playing that dolt that week when four of his top six picks share a bye week. While every NFL
team has one bye week (for now), fantasy owners can’t come into a season saying, “I know I’m
going to lose in Week 8 because I didn’t know the Ravens, Bears, Texans, Colts, Chargers and
Titans all had the same week off.” These are things that are in your control before the draft. Take
the time to put asterisks and red flags next to players from teams that are going to have very
difficult paths during your fantasy playoffs, and, as He would say, “for all that is Holy” when
you input a player’s name at a key position (especially quarterback), between your picks, make
sure to red flag other players at the same position with the same bye week. You can’t give away
a week – whether it’s Week 4 or Week 12 – and expect to be successful. Never take a flight from
quality. That should be your mantra. Don’t be “that guy.” Take advantage of “that guy” when his
bye week hits, cripples him and he is forced to make a lopsided trade that helps him for one
week and helps you for the rest of the year.
The Eighth Demandment
Thou Shalt Understand the False Prophets Among You – Unless you are a complete
newbie, you likely know the tendencies of the other owners in your league. Thanks to the almost
every fantasy league having someone who breaks into the minutiae of record keeping, there is
probably a game-by-game breakdown of the history of your league and almost surely a listing of
the pick-by-pick draft order from one year to the next. If you don’t already have it, it’s available.
Get your hands on it. The great strategists of all time use the philosophy of taking down their
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enemies by knowing their thought process and tendencies. If you have an owner in your league
that has an allegiance to a specific team, having that knowledge is advantageous because any
player you take from that team can suddenly be the deal-closer on an in-season trade. On the
same vein, if an owner in your league has a history of taking QBs early, consistently being the
first to take a tight end, a kicker or defense in hopes of starting a run, being armed with that
information is key. Every fantasy owner, especially those of limited intelligence, has “tells.” –
things they do year after year without fail. Some guys are always the first to take a second QB.
Others consistently use three of their first four picks on running backs. As long as you know that,
you have the unspoken advantage. They paint a portrait of their draft strategy over time, such as,
“why does he always end up with Tony Romo?” Maybe because he has a man-love for Romo
that, if he ends up on your roster as your No. 2 QB, the trade offer you may receive two or three
weeks into the season might well be one you can’t refuse. Odds are they aren’t doing similar
research on your draft history. If you’ve played for any extended period of time and have your
own draft rosters, you can do a self-analysis and discover your own Oedipal tugging impulses.
Knowledge is power – whether it is self-actualization or quietly discovering your league rivals’
personal Kryptonite. It is especially important if you have tells on those drafting immediately
around you. If you have a good idea what they’re going to do and when they’re going to do it,
you can draft accordingly and potentially take the players they want away from them – if they
hold value to you as well. If you do your homework while others sleep, you’ve got a tactical
advantage they haven’t even considered and won’t see coming until after you execute your
ambush on draft day.
The Ninth Demandment
Thou Shalt Cast Out the Non-Believers – There are owners that jump on defenses and
kickers in the middle rounds of the draft. They invariably try to start a panic that never
materializes. While they’re burning picks based on last year’s performances, you can stockpile
the positions you need to win. The simple fact is that nobody – not even Him – can accurately
project kicker or defense points from one year to the next. It’s fluky. A conservative coach
willing to take three points rather than show his balls and take a risk of “7-or-nothing” will make
his kicker a one-week darling to a fantasy owner. A high-velocity pass that goes through the
hands of a receiver and plops nicely into the arms of an on-charging cornerback that becomes a
Pick-6 can’t be projected. Most interceptions come on tipped passes and the unpredictable nature
of points scored by defenses and kickers often renders both fantasy positions almost moot.
Simply make a list of the defenses and kickers you want to draft and use your final picks on
those two positions – taking the one you have ranked highest at either position first. You can
relatively accurately predict what position players will do. Just check kicker numbers over the
last 10 years. Unlike QBs, RBs or WRs, the same guy doesn’t lead the league in kicker scoring
twice in a row. And the difference between No. 2 and No. 16 is rarely more than 16 points over
the course of 16 games. Don’t waste your time. You add a running back with upside and another
owner can take Blair Walsh. In the end, odds are you come out ahead.
The Tenth Demandment
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Thou Shalt Bring In Followers From All Tribes – It is amazing how often this scenario
has played out: an owner is loaded with three or more starters from the same team and that team
is on fire. In a blood-sport league one of His children was a member of in 2007, another owner
had Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Steve Gostkowski of the Patriots. He went 12-1 in the regular
season and shattered league scoring records. He lost in his post-bye week playoff opener. The
same happened with a Saints-laden 2009 fantasy team. It happens every year. If you are too topheavy on one team, you are cooking a recipe for disaster. The sad part is that He knows you are
going to try to ride the lightning bolt. If you have Aaron Rodgers, you will be open to adding any
of his receivers when trades are offered. It’s human nature. But, He isn’t human. According to
His gospel, one should never have more than two players from the same team in a fantasy lineup
– especially in a one-and-done playoff scenario. Owners have won regular season titles riding a
one-team-laden lineup, but it’s never been the team you think it should be. Diversify. If you have
the talent, you don’t need to put all your eggs in one basket. More seasons have been ruined with
a 12-1 regular season record than having a Nor’Easter ground the Patriots in Week 15 and you
finish 12-2. In an idyllic fantasy world, He says you should have one player from each team that
you have rounds in your draft. That isn’t always possible, but, with the flexibility in-season
trades provide, the more options available to you reduce the amount of teeth-gnashing that come
when you’ve invested your entire season on one team that could have an off week when you
need them most.
If you follow these simple Demandments, you may find yourself in the Promised Land of
fantasy football. If you don’t, you may be held accountable on Judgment Day. Follow the Ten
Commandments on a convenience basis. Strict adherence to the Ten Demandments will set you
free…and quite possibly win you a fantasy title. Your draft hasn’t happened yet. Prepare for it
like it is The Rapture. You don’t want to get caught unaware when you need to be on point. Pay
heed to the Demandments and the truth shall set you free.
~ end ~
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Strength of Schedule 2013 – Masterminding Your Draft
June 28, 2013
by: John Cooney
An annual ritual of just about every fantasy football “general manager” is researching the
statistics of players from the previous season as an integral part of preparing a draft plan for the
up-coming fantasy football schedule. Passing yards and touchdowns are usually the key
categories studied for quarterbacks. The main recipients of the passers’ offerings, the wide
receivers and tight ends, are valued mostly by the number of receptions, receiving yards and
touchdowns. Running backs, traditionally the building blocks of most fantasy drafts, are sorted
by rushing yards, receptions, total touches (carries + receptions) by the astute and touchdowns.
Crunching these tell-tale statistics helps to paint a picture of a particular players use,
effectiveness and, in some cases durability over the course of the last sixteen to twenty games.
For a bigger picture, fantasy players also look at another annual statistical release geared toward
projection of success (or disappointment); Strength Of Schedule (SOS). The common SOS
delves into the previous season combined wins and losses of a particular team’s opponents on
the up-coming schedule for the new season. Each off-season in late April football fans, sports
radio hosts, beat reporters and gridiron TV analysts anxiously await as the NFL reveals the new
slate of games on tap for each organization. The debates begin as the breakdowns of the weekly
matchups progress into a hypothetical win-loss record for each club, mapping out projected postseason bound teams and cellar-dwellers. Strength Of Schedule, or SOS, in this format creates an
idea of which teams will likely prosper, and which may fall flat. But projected wins and losses
doesn’t help the fantasy football nation identify which players are likely to have All-Pro
production, breakout performances or sleeper potential. If you are going to Mastermind a draft
plan with purpose, focus and aggressiveness, where the potential of players is based on a
meaningful process of evaluation and common sense, then a true FANTASY Strength Of
Schedule should be utilized.
What is a SOS established through a meaningful process and common sense? Let’s get right
down to the brass tacks. A Strength Of Schedule dedicated to fantasy football use looks at a
team’s slate of games and the “strength” of the defenses they will line up against, not wins and
losses. Overall defensive ranking from the previous year is too broad a category to work
effectively. The SOS has to be broken up into two separate rankings; SOS vs. the pass and SOS
against the run. SOS-Pass gives an indication of which quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends
may or may not succeed in 2013. A season set against defenses weak in pass defense would
likely translate into solid production by a passer and his receiving crew. Conversely, a schedule
loaded with teams strong in air defense would run up a red flag for passing game talent playing
that set of games. The same holds true for a SOS-Run.
Sounds simple enough. But how do we create an effective SOS for pass and run? What statistics
should carry the most weight in determining pass defense ranking or the strength of run
defenses?
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Let’s cover SOS-Pass first. The categories that are key for fantasy footballers in determining
pass defense strength are Yards Per pass Attempt (YPA), Touch Down passes allowed (TD)
and completion percentage (PCT). A sub-category to consider for next-level fantasy evaluation
is number of pass plays over twenty yards allowed. YPA is the first factor and used because it is
play-specific. The YPA against a pass-D unit is a more accurate “tell” than total passing yards in
a season or a per-game average. Total yards allowed or total yards allowed per game fail to tell
us the volume of pass attempts a defense faced. Was a team’s pass defense getting blown away
each weekend or are the total yards accumulated via a high volume of pass attempts against,
which may indicate a good pass D? Here is where common sense comes into play. Compare two
pass defenses allowing a hypothetical 3800 yards in a season (or 238 pass yards a game). Team
A’s opposition tends to pass more often, averaging 38 pass attempts a game against them,
allowing a tight 6.3 YPA. Team B opponents put it up an average of 30 times a tilt, with Team B
getting burned for 7.9 an attempt. Both teams “allow” 238 passing yards a game (or 3800 a
season), but Team B is the poorer pass defense, getting abused at 7.9 YPA while Team A proves
to be stingier in coverage (6.3 YPA). Team B would be ranked lower, and a more attractive
opponent on a schedule. Touchdowns allowed through the air is an obvious stat line that is
charted in a SOS-Pass. No need to expand any more than a defense that is beaten to the endzone
often is very attractive to a fantasy QB or WR/TE. The third category in the SOS-Pass is not as
obvious; completion percentage against. It is not a statistic that “counts” in fantasy football, but
in a common sense approach, if a team allows a high percentage of passes to be completed
against them, chances are that defense cannot get off the field. If a defense cannot stop drives
and get off the field, the skill offensive positions (in this case with a SOS-Pass, QBs, WRs and
TE) are seeing more plays in the game. More plays equals more snaps by the offense, and more
fantasy production by those skill players. Passers attempt more throws, receivers and tight ends
see more targets, leading to more receptions (PPR), yards and chances for endzone dances. YPA,
TDs and PCT, key components for a fantasy-friendly SOS versus the pass.
Breaking down SOS-Run, the key again is to “individualize” the defensive strengths and
weaknesses. As with SOS-Pass, look past the broad stat of total rushing yards allowed in a
season or on a per-game average. Instead, the top run-D indicator is Yards Per Carry allowed
(YPC). Isolating the effectiveness of a run defense on a per carry basis, we can see which teams
are soft and consistently gashed for big gains. Big gains for running backs lead to big plays and
solid run production with less carries. A ground defense that is wrecked for 116 yards a game at
5.2 YPC is RB gold as the back facing that D needs just 22 carries to make it work for you. On
the other hand, another defense allowing 116 yards a game on the ground at 3.5 a shot… well, a
tailback needs to work extra hard and see a high volume of rush attempts to get it done. In
today’s NFL, high carry numbers by running backs are rare and outdated. So, YPC is ranked
accordingly in the first method of setting a SOS-Run. The second set of numbers that weigh
heavily is rushing TouchDowns allowed. Again, self-explanatory; love the ground forces that
cannot keep the ball out of the endzone. The third category is total runs allowed over 20 yards.
This gets back to micro-evaluation as we establish which teams are poor at second-level tackling
and become prime targets for playmaking halfbacks. A run defense that allows more big gainers
on the ground again is very susceptible to giving up long TDs, thus instant offense and points are
more likely. SOS-Run is ranked by YPC (yards per carry), TDs and 20+ (runs of 20-plus yards).
Next, a rating “formula” needs to be established using those fantasy-specific statistics. No need
to get into “money-ball Sabermetrics” here. Each category (YPA, TD, PCT for SOS-Pass)(YPC,
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TD, 20+ for SOS-Run) is ranked from 1-32 (1 = tough defenses; 32 = weak defenses), with the
rank becoming its own point value. Using a 2011 example, Tampa Bay’s run defense ranked 31st
in YPC (5.0 YPC), 32nd or dead last in rush TDs allowed (26) and 32nd in giving up runs of 20plus yards (31). The evaluation point assessments would be 31+32+32, for a total run defense
score of 95. On the flip-side, San Francisco’s run D ranked 1st in all three statistics, meaning they
were assessed 1+1+1… an astounding 3, the best run D for 2011. The same breakdown is
applied to each team. With the three categories totaled for each defense, we then rank them
according to the combined total. Tampa Bay’s 95 sets their run defense as the worst in 2011 and
the 49ers combined score of 3 puts them atop the list. The same process is followed for the pass
defense categories. That process found that the Minnesota Vikings ranked last in the NFL (32nd)
against the pass while the Baltimore Ravens were the league’s best (1st). The total rank points (1
to 32) for PASS and the total rank points for RUN for each team are then sorted, providing us
with a fantasy-friendly defensive ranking for both categories.
Updated defensive information is now inserted into the 2013 NFL schedule, substituting the
FANTASY PASS and RUN ranking number for the actual opponent each week. For instance,
Minnesota plays Green Bay twice on their schedule in 2013 (as always), weeks 8 and 12. Where
Green Bay appears in the schedule, their defensive pass value (or rank) of seven (7) is inserted as
we create the SOS-Pass chart. Remember, we are making a SOS for both the pass and the run. A
second spreadsheet is established for the run with the Packer run-D value of twenty-one (21) is
inserted. This process is completed throughout the entire 2013 NFL schedule; once for a
complete PASS schedule and again for a complete RUN schedule.
We now have two full 17-game schedules with defensive pass and run scores for each team. The
final action to complete the SOS is to total each teams 17 week slate, then sort the totals.
Example; the Steelers play Tennessee in week one. Since the Titans are the 26th ranked pass D in
OUR chart, Pitt’s week one carries a 26. Week two Pittsburgh plays the Bengals, 10th rated pass
; insert 10. Week three it’s da’ Bears with a 4 and skipping to week five we see a bye (0), week
six at the Jets (5), and so on. The 17-week schedule, totaled out, gives the Steelers a semi-tough
PASS-SOS ranking for 2013, 14th hardest. Again, the same ranking process is done to create the
final RUN-SOS.
Fine-tuning the Fantasy SOS, break it down into various week splits. I personally eliminate week
17 entirely from SOS evaluations. Most often week 17 games have little to no value for
fanballers as week 16 is generally “title week”. Also, week 17 is a contest where head coaches
tend to rest star players, cut back on key playing time and/or take the opportunity to get a look at
rookies or reserves, giving them extended action. I also modify the SOS into two main splits; a
SOS for weeks 1-13 (fantasy regular season), and a SOS for weeks 14-16 (fantasy post-season).
This creates a forward plan helping to target players who are likely to have solid performances
for most of the season yet struggle when it counts the most, or on the flip side, become playoff
keys despite a tough regular season.
The process of creating a fantasy football SOS for both the run and the pass may sound a bit
confusing, tedious and time-consuming. For some, it is. That is why Fantasy Football
Mastermind is here. We do the work for you. We breakdown the plays, the statistics and the
performances that truly make a difference in winning a fantasy football championship. I’ve used
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my own SOS format for years, tweaking the method annually until I narrowed down what
numbers work and which stats only muddy the evaluation. Personally, I participate in two
leagues faithfully. Over the past five seasons I’ve experimented in the use of my SOS in the two
leagues to create some evidence of effectiveness. In one league I follow my SOS closely while in
the second one I “relax” my dedication to the SOS. The league where I maintain SOS integrity, I
have never missed the post-season and have won two titles in the five year experiment. In the
other league where I purposely stray from my SOS plan, I have missed qualifying for the
playoffs two of the past five seasons, and barely made it in the post season in a third.
Strength Of Schedule; IT WORKS!
And now, here is the complete Strength Of Schedule breakdown as we head into the 2013
Fantasy Draft. Teams at the top sport the most attractive SOS and you want to target players
from these teams. Bottom ranked teams are players that you might want to avoid.
SOS-PASS, WEEKS 1-13 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON
PASS
DEN
PHI
DAL
OAK
SD
NYJ
MIA
ATL
KC
HOU
NYG
CAR
SEA
ARI
TB
SF
BUF
WAS
PIT
CHI
JAC
NO
GB
IND
1
19
25
32
22
9
30
17
31
20
18
27
3
12
15
5
7
28
23
26
10
29
21
2
24
2
32
18
29
20
23
28
22
15
27
26
6
13
2
14
31
3
12
7
10
8
24
30
25
16
3
24
29
15
6
26
13
21
16
23
19
12
32
20
31
28
22
5
14
4
1
3
11
10
2
4
23
6
18
25
27
26
31
28
32
3
29
Bye
9
30
11
15
19
24
8
14
22
16
Bye
20
5
27
32
6
18
24
21
19
5
26
2
23
11
22
12
Bye
9
17
Bye
Bye
31
15
4
14
3
6
20
30
25
29
22
1
Bye
Bye
24
15
4
8
26
2
23
11
10
27
5
32
6
28
19
18
7
22
27
23
Bye
20
28
13
30
9
29
8
15
11
3
21
26
16
4
19
25
18
Bye
17
6
8
25
32
14
1
Bye
10
28
11
17
Bye
23
30
15
21
12
20
31
6
24
Bye
2
13
8
Bye
9
Bye
24
8
23
25
31
10
12
13
22
Bye
21
30
Bye
3
Bye
29
18
28
7
Bye
5
4
9
10
18
7
31
32
6
Bye
30
3
Bye
11
24
2
21
9
16
12
1
8
13
14
26
27
23
15
11
29
25
Bye
9
16
13
18
30
6
24
7
28
8
20
21
31
5
23
14
19
11
2
32
26
12
28
Bye
32
26
29
19
12
31
18
20
27
16
Bye
22
14
25
Bye
2
17
15
9
21
8
11
13
29
11
24
27
10
16
5
13
6
28
25
30
31
23
12
15
21
32
19
8
17
3
14
26
SOS
296
266
257
238
237
236
226
225
221
217
215
209
207
202
197
196
194
188
187
184
182
181
176
176
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Fantasy Articles
TEN
CLE
CIN
NE
STL
MIN
DET
BAL
1
16
4
13
11
14
8
6
9
19
1
5
21
4
11
17
18
8
7
30
27
17
25
9
5
10
17
21
2
1
4
13
29
13
28
10
20
Bye
7
16
3
14
13
31
9
12
17
7
2
7
14
5
12
32
10
1
Bye
29
5
16
3
7
27
Bye
15
19
16
1
26
27
Bye
17
20
Bye
19
Bye
22
25
4
10
22
10
17
12
Bye
3
1
4
24
1
Bye
6
4
7
30
5
22
20
18
9
2
4
7
1
170
166
159
159
159
153
151
106
In this spreadsheet, it is evident that QBs Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Matt
Ryan appear to be headed for big seasons. The QB battle in Philadelphia between Michael Vick
and Nick Foles now becomes even more intriguing. The Eagles have the second most attractive
PASS-SOS this season and in the high-octane Coach Chip Kelly offense the victor of the Philly
camp war becomes a very valuable fantasy draft option. When using the SOS table, common
sense is crucial in accurately reading the numbers. Carson Palmer is no longer in Oakland and
though the Raiders have the fourth best PASS-SOS, there is no QB on the roster that can
effectively take advantage of the juicy schedule. The same can be said of the Jets (6th best PASSSOS), who have QB and receiver issues. On the flip side, there are two passers who are very
likely to have breakout seasons; Kansas City’s Alex Smith and Miami’s Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill is blessed with the seventh advantageous PASS-SOS and the Dolphin front office has
fortified the offense with WR talent, namely Mike Wallace. Smith is finally in a QB happy
program run by Coach Andy Reid, and in a place that truly wants and embraces his skill set.
Smith goes into the 2013 season with a PASS-SOS ranking of nine. Quarterbacks are not the
only benefactors of a prime-time PASS-SOS; wide receivers and tight ends also reap the
rewards. The Denver triple threat of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker are all set
for fantasy friendly seasons. Dallas’ Dez Bryant is ready to go super star this season. Philly’s
Jeremy Maclin is a player that has fallen out of the spotlight but between the Coach Kelly
program and the #2 PASS-SOS Maclin is geared up for a surprisingly solid season. A receiver
in San Diego is going to emerge, and the early returns points to Danario Alexander. But keep an
eye on the sharp route running and sticky fingers of Vincent Brown; he’s got the tools and was
drafted with a prominent role in mind two seasons ago. Miami’s Mike Wallace could have a
bigger season than expected, PASS-SOS and surrounding talent considered. On the flip side,
Ravens Torry Smith is now the clear top target in Baltimore, but he no longer has Anquan
Boldin to draw coverage from Smith. Smith has done well against single-man coverage, but now
he will face many double-coverage looks. Another common sense read here involves the Lions
PASS-SOS and Calvin Johnson. Though Detroit carries the burden of the second toughest
PASS-SOS, Cal Johnson is SOS-proof and the ranking should mostly be ignored here. That is a
rare situation and few NFL players fall into that category. Things in New England are going to
be interesting. There has been so much of a shift in the WR ranks there, primarily the loss of
Wes Welker and the iffy health of TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernendez. The Super BandAid, Danny Amendola, slides into Welker’s slot and the outside receivers are names like Aaron
Dobson, Julian Edelman, Josh Boyce, Mike Jenkins, Donald Jones and Kenbrell Thompkins.
There may be a secret plan being conjured up by Wild Bill Belichick… eyes on, gang! The
Vikings, Rams and Bengals also have tough PASS-SOS slates, hot-seat QB situations and
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young, developing receiver units. There is no room for slip ups this season with a daunting SOS
ahead.
SOS-PASS, WEEKS 14-16 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS
PASS
WAS
DET
STL
KC
CAR
CHI
BUF
SD
SF
DEN
NYJ
MIN
NE
OAK
BAL
GB
HOU
IND
JAC
SEA
ARI
MIA
NO
CLE
TEN
DAL
NYG
ATL
PIT
CIN
TB
PHI
14
29
23
11
25
31
27
30
32
3
26
24
19
17
5
8
21
20
10
9
2
15
1
12
28
6
4
18
7
16
22
13
14
15
21
19
31
24
5
17
20
6
30
18
12
23
16
29
14
27
22
9
13
32
26
28
15
4
11
7
3
25
10
1
2
8
16
27
32
30
22
31
23
16
24
21
9
17
10
19
18
28
1
6
29
26
11
3
13
12
5
20
25
14
2
7
8
15
4
SOS
77
74
72
71
67
67
66
62
54
53
53
52
52
52
50
49
48
48
48
45
44
42
39
37
37
36
35
34
33
31
30
26
This table is a perfect example why it is important to take a micro look at the SOS, dissecting the
regular season from the usual fantasy post-season schedule, commonly weeks 14 to 16. Lions’
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34
Fantasy Articles
WR Calvin Johnson and QB Matt Stafford have a daunting regular season SOS, the second most
difficult weeks 1-13 slate in the league. Buuut, owning these two ever-dangerous offensive
weapons heading into the fanball playoffs projects to be a sky-high opportunity for fantasy
owners. The Lions go into weeks 14-16 with the second BEST PASS-SOS. Even more exciting
for the Detroit pass game players is that they square off against potentially the NFL’s worst air
defense in week 16, a title week in most leagues. The 16th week schedule sets the Lions opposite
the New York Giants, who were the league’s worst pass defense in our breakdown last season,
AND the game is in Detroit. Another nice observation that Masterminds will notice is that the
Redskins round out with the best playoff PASS-SOS. Washington QB Robert Griffin III is likely
to be as close to full strength from his knee surgery by then, and smart fantasy owners might
look to draft and stash RGIII later in the draft (where his ADP is falling), or, those practicing
SOS integrity might make a low-key investment deal after a few weeks if RGIII is on the shelf as
the season kicks off. St. Louis’ Sam Bradford, Chris Givens, Tavon Austin or whichever Rams’
receiver is ‘hot’ at the time should be on the watch list. Kansas City may experience a few
bumps in the road early transitioning to the Coach Reid/Alex Smith offense, but by week 14 the
kinks may be ironed out and the team functioning at a high level. The Rams, Chiefs, Panthers
and Bears all have great PASS-SOS during the all-important fantasy playoff run, weeks 14 to 16.
SOS-RUN, WEEKS 1-13 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON
RUN
TB
SF
DEN
ARI
TEN
DAL
MIN
ATL
MIA
HOU
NO
STL
BUF
PHI
SEA
JAC
CHI
PIT
SD
NE
NYJ
1
23
21
12
17
3
27
26
30
15
5
29
22
8
14
18
28
9
16
10
32
1
2
30
25
27
26
10
28
13
17
31
16
1
29
18
5
4
24
6
9
11
23
8
3
8
31
24
30
5
17
15
7
29
12
22
19
23
28
20
25
3
13
16
1
32
4
22
17
11
1
23
5
3
8
30
25
7
4
12
2
10
31
26
6
19
29
16
5
Bye
10
19
18
28
2
Bye
23
12
4
13
20
15
27
31
17
30
Bye
24
9
29
6
11
22
20
4
25
14
18
Bye
Bye
17
8
10
9
1
16
2
27
23
31
30
3
7
29
16
31
25
4
11
27
TB
32
28
Bye
18
7
19
22
5
14
12
20
23
8
8
18
20
14
29
Bye
26
21
22
8
Bye
32
25
30
27
17
4
Bye
24
Bye
7
9
9
25
Bye
Bye
Bye
17
6
19
18
9
31
23
16
28
24
1
Bye
21
8
14
3
30
10
7
18
5
10
20
30
14
25
1
22
19
31
3
21
29
16
26
32
2
Bye
Bye
11
29
30
28
20
31
Bye
25
1
5
24
4
Bye
23
14
6
22
12
26
7
18
32
12
26
14
8
31
24
27
21
30
18
20
29
13
Bye
Bye
Bye
10
17
15
28
2
12
13
18
17
28
11
31
24
13
32
23
8
25
4
29
22
30
15
6
12
9
10
7
SOS
246
241
227
222
221
217
215
213
213
212
212
211
205
204
204
199
197
196
191
187
187
____________________________________________________________________________________________
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Fantasy Articles
NYG
OAK
CLE
KC
CIN
CAR
GB
WAS
IND
DET
BAL
19
31
7
20
13
25
4
11
24
6
2
2
20
12
19
3
32
14
21
7
22
15
18
2
6
11
21
27
9
26
4
14
10
28
14
9
27
15
Bye
Bye
24
20
13
32
11
5
32
16
8
22
26
Bye
25
21
7
13
28
26
24
32
6
12
19
5
15
21
6
Bye
21
10
26
17
15
13
2
9
1
11
3
28
15
23
1
6
2
Bye
19
Bye
Bye
11
12
32
7
29
13
5
10
Bye
15
24
27
Bye
Bye
12
4
11
6
17
13
9
21
10
9
2
15
8
27
11
16
3
13
19
16
3
5
Bye
7
6
4
22
1
23
14
19
20
2
5
1
26
27
16
21
3
186
186
185
183
180
179
169
169
168
157
151
Tampa Bay’s superb RB Doug Martin had an explosive debut in 2012. He also had the 5th best
RUN-SOS in the league last season. Washington’s Alfred Morris came out of small school
Florida Atlantic to bang out over 1600 rushing yards and double-digit TDs. Morris opened 2012
with the NFL’s 4th most attractive RUN-SOS. Frisco’s Frank Gore … 2nd best, KC’s Jamal
Charles… 7th and Adrian Peterson was 10th best RUN-SOS. Utilizing the SOS works or gets you
in the neighborhood of winning fantasy football production. Again, remember to apply common
sense as player health and your league scoring rules have to be considered with these SOS listtoppers. Last season I stated, “Washington’s talented and potential touch-machine Roy Helu
comes into 2012 with the 4th best SOS-RUN… but there’s the Shanny factor and his revolving RB
mind.” Right team and read, but there is ALWAYS the Shanny factor, and other smokescreens
to consider like RBBC (learn to love it!), offensive lines (which I rank in another article), type of
offensive scheme, etc. The Buc’s Martin flourished in 2012 with the 5th best RUN-SOS; he
comes into 2013 with the top regular season SOS in pro football. Gore again lucks out with the
2nd best SOS here, and runs behind the NFL’s beastliest o-line. The 2013 rookie coming into a
Doug Martin-Alfred Morris scenario is Denver’s Monte Ball, who is blessed with a most
advantageous 3rd RUN-SOS. If Cardinal’s Coach Arians can turn around his o-line in the desert,
Arizona’s Rashard Mendenhall has a juicy RUN-SOS, 4th best. In a rich-get-richer theme, RBs
Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Arian Foster all line up
in the top 10 RUN-SOS rankings. Another back that seems set up for 2013 prosperity is Miami’s
Lamar Miller, pegged as the RB1 for the Dolphins and doing his work through the 9th ranked
RUN-SOS. On the bottom-end, no one did Ray Rice, Reggie Bush or Vick Ballard any favors
with this season’s schedule as they make up the three toughest run slates. Alfred Morris’
sophomore year looks to be rocky with the 4th staunchest RUN-SOS. The Pack may be
introducing two rookies onto the FFB scene, but they will do so in a 5th toughest environment.
Some players are practically SOS proof. The ravens Ray Rice is never out of contention. If
Baltimore runs into the teeth of a fierce ground defense, Rice becomes a bigger PPR weapon; he
gets his one way or another. Jamal Charles also possesses Teflon for SOS, as well as Reggie
Bush to a lesser degree.
SOS-RUN, WEEKS 14-16 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBAL PLAYOFFS
____________________________________________________________________________________________
36
Fantasy Articles
RUN
CAR
WAS
KC
ARI
JAC
NYJ
NYG
OAK
SF
HOU
NO
SD
SEA
STL
TB
GB
DET
DAL
IND
CHI
PHI
CLE
TEN
MIA
BAL
CIN
ATL
PIT
NE
MIN
DEN
BUF
14
30
28
14
17
10
24
5
23
25
20
18
27
4
22
32
29
11
13
9
19
26
8
2
3
6
31
21
7
15
12
16
1
15
23
29
24
16
32
18
25
28
1
31
17
2
27
30
4
19
12
21
10
15
6
13
22
8
26
3
14
9
7
11
5
20
16
30
19
31
25
16
15
26
5
29
2
18
24
22
1
17
3
27
14
28
11
13
23
20
32
8
6
4
21
12
9
10
7
SOS
83
76
69
58
58
57
56
56
55
53
53
53
53
53
53
51
50
48
47
45
45
44
44
43
40
40
39
37
34
32
31
28
Here’s hoping that Arizona’s coaching staff really performs miracles in the desert regarding the
run blocking; Rashard Mendenhall is set up for a monster finish and a solid season. Mendenhall
carries the 4th best regular season SOS and the playoff SOS in 2013. He should be fully
recovered by from his leg injuries of over a year ago, and ready to hit the ground running.
Mendy is a looker, and a mid-season trade target if all goes well. Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams
may be a nice late season sleeper grab. Running mate Jonathan Stewart is always injured
(already missing mini-camps) and Williams is set at the top of the RUN-SOS for the post season.
The Panthers are installing a more traditional run offense. Just sayin’. DC’s Alfred Morris may
____________________________________________________________________________________________
37
Fantasy Articles
have a rough regular season slate, but he rockets to the 2nd best playoff schedule. Chiefs’ flashy
tailback Jamal Charles comes in at 3rd in the post season SOS and his PPR attractiveness is sure
to help win FFB titles. Flipping the chart, Buffalo’s CJ Spiller faces the 32nd ranked SOS in
weeks 14-16… new offense, rookie QB, an o-line that lost the best blocker via free agency; trade
bait. Bronco rookie Monte Ball may be a stud in the regular season, but he hits a wall in the FFB
playoffs. Adrian Peterson is one of those SOS-proof players. He has the 3rd toughest RUN-SOS
in the post season but that has to be ignored with AP. One thing to keep in mind when
considering the post season SOS is that a FFB owner coach can micro-manage the chart. It is
smart to hold an ace in the hand by checking out secondary running back talents who have
outstanding week 16 matchups. Miami’s Lamar Miller logs in with the 9th hardest playoff
schedule, but he laces ‘em up against potentially the weakest ground defense (in our Mastermind
way of ranking) in week 16, which is usually the FFB title game in a majority of leagues.
DeAngelo Williams tees off on the 30th ranked run D twice in three weeks… OUTSTANDING!
Either Ahmad Bradshaw or Vick Ballard are likely to be had in late season trades after tough
regular seasons, but go after the 28th projected run unit in the all-important 16th game of the
season. Of course defenses change as well as their performances, but this is a great baseline
study to start out with. Those owners who do plan ahead might scan the SOS-RUN and stash
away potential stars-in-waiting who could make hay when it counts. A few seasons ago I won a
fantasy championship with Pierre Thomas and then part-timer Jamaal Charles as my title game
starting backfield. Often, it’s not how much a player does, it’s when he does it.
Much goes into planning a fantasy draft and a successful season. Luck plays a role, but most
times those who are “lucky” put themselves in the position to be just that. Working a smart,
well-processed SOS before the draft isn’t going to guarantee a trophy on your mantle come
season’s end. However, all plans that prosper need a firm, logical foundation and starting point.
A fantasy-specific Strength Of Schedule truly focuses on football players that have the best
chance to prosper, and do so at the right times when you need them to perform. A SOS can not
only establish a fine-tuned draft plan, but guide in making weekly lineup and roster decisions,
and pinpoint specific trade targets and the optimum time to pull off those key championship
building moves. The beauty of the SOS is that it can evolve and change weekly to reflect how
defenses are progressing or falling apart. But it all happens right now, in the off-season and the
preparation.
Fantasy coaches, it is time to begin to Mastermind your 2013 season. The Fantasy Strength Of
Schedule is your cornerstone to a great season.
~ end ~
____________________________________________________________________________________________
38
Fantasy Articles
Coaching Carousel 2013
June 28, 2013
by: John Holler
Fantasy owners are always in tune with the movement of players from one team to
another and the impact that can have on the franchise in question. For example, how does the
move of Wes Welker from New England to Denver impact both teams? Who is going to pick up
the slack in New England? Will Eric Decker be the one hurt the most by the arrival of Welker or
could both Decker and Demaryius Thomas see a loss of production with the addition of the most
consistent 100-catch receiver in NFL history? How will the Rams and Falcons each be impacted
by the move of Steven Jackson from St. Louis to Atlanta.
While these changes are that are the most obvious to fans, what isn’t always noticed are
the changes that are made on NFL coaching staffs. Whether it’s a complete staff that is let go or
coaches that leave on their own for other jobs or serve as scapegoats for the failures of a team
(we’re looking at you, Rex Ryan), the changes that get made can have just as big an impact as
signing a high-priced free agent or a veteran backup quarterback who still has starting
aspirations.
More than 75 percent of the NFL teams had some sort of coaching turnover. These are
the coaches that have come into new organizations and the differences they might make to the
fantasy prospects of the NFL’s 32 teams in 2013.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills – After being a trendy pick to be a challenge to the Patriots last year, Chan Gailey
and his staff was imploded and the Bills are starting over. The team brought in head coach Doug
Marrone, who spent the last four years at head coach of Syracuse, but does have NFL
experience, including offensive coordinator of the Saints from 2006-08 and offensive line coach
for Jets from 2002-05. Marrone spread the wealth from his Syracuse staff, bringing in Nathaniel
Hackett (offensive coordinator/quarterbacks), Tyrone Wheatley (running backs), Greg Adkins
(tight ends) and Donnie Henderson (defensive backs). Not everyone came in from the Syracuse
program. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine comes to Buffalo after being the DC for the last
four years with the Jets. Pettine brought along Anthony Weaver from the fired Jets defensive
staff to serve as D-line coach for the Bills and linebackers coach Jim O’Neill, who spent the last
three years as defensive backs coach with the Jets. Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman
has been a special teams coordinator for eight years – five with Carolina and the last three with
Detroit. Offensive line coach Pat Morris is entering his 16th season, which has included stints in
San Francisco, Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard spent 2012
in that position with Washington. The Bills are bringing together a lot of new coaches from
different programs, each with some familiarity with others on the staff. How quickly they can
blend into a cohesive staff will go a long way to determining how quickly the Bills can return to
respectability.
Miami Dolphins – Technically the Dolphins don’t have any changes in the second season with
Joe Philbin as the head coach. The only change was an internal promotion. When he took the
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job, Philbin and offensive coordinator served as the de facto quarterbacks coach. Zac Taylor,
who was brought in as the assistant QBs coach when Philbin assembled his staff in 2012, was
promoted to the position of quarterbacks coach. Other than that, the staff remains intact heading
into the second year of the Philbin era.
New England Patriots – Perhaps it’s a sign of the times. Bill Belichick hasn’t had a defensive
coordinator the last two years, handling the job himself. That will change this year. He promoted
safeties coach Matt Patricia to the role of defensive coordinator. There was defensive coaching
juggling done beyond naming a DC. Josh Boyer went from being defensive backs coach to just
cornerbacks, defensive assistant Brian Flores was promoted to safeties coach, Pepper Johnson
was moved from defensive line coach to linebackers coach and Patrick Graham was shifted from
LBs to the D-line. One interesting signing was the hiring of Steve Belichick (the coach’s son) as
a coaching assistant. While the Patriots defense struggled last year, Belichick has a history of
moving coaches around within the system to give them a fuller knowledge base of the different
responsibilities within a team. Belichick taking the DC position away from himself is an example
of that.
New York Jets – Rex Ryan survived the coaching blood purge on both sides of the ball, but the
same couldn’t be said for his support staff – including all three coordinators. After spending the
last 10 years in Philadelphia with Andy Reid, Marty Mornhinweg was hired as the next offensive
coordinator. On the offensive side, the team brought in tight ends coach Steve Hagen, who held
the same position the last four years in Cleveland. Quarterback coach David Lee has been a
quarterbacks coach for both Miami and Buffalo, making his third stop in the AFC East. Mike
Delvin was relieved of his duties as TE coach and was named the new offensive line coach. On
the defensive side, Dennis Thurman was promoted to defensive coordinator from the team’s
defensive backs coach. Thurman was replaced as the defensive backs coach by former NFL
safety Tim McDonald, marking his first NFL or college coaching job. The biggest defensive
signing was bringing in former Falcons defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder to coach
linebackers. Even special teams weren’t unscathed by the changes, as Ben Kotwica was
promoted to special teams coordinator after the firing of Mike Westhoff. Somehow Ryan and his
tough talking ways helped him avoid the hammer of firings, but the Jets cleaned house of
assistants. Another bad season for Ryan and he may join his fellow coaches on the temporary
unemployment line.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens – When you’re a champion, you inevitably lose coaches. Fortunately for the
Ravens, they weren’t caught by surprise. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was cut loose late
in the season, quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell took over and returns as the full-time OC.
Former Philadelphia assistant Juan Castillo was the only new outside hire, being brought in as
run-game coordinator after Andy Reid’s Eagles staff was imploded.
Cincinnati Bengals – Thanks in no small part to making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons,
there are no position coaching changes this offseason.
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Cleveland Browns – The Browns cleaned house throughout the coaching staff, starting at the
top. Rod Chudzinski comes to Cleveland after nine years in the NFL, the last two as offensive
coordinator. The changes on the offensive side of ball include offensive coordinator Norv
Turner, who was the embattled head coach in San Diego before being fired at the end of the
season. Chudzinski and Turner will handle the role of being quarterbacks coach. Turner’s
support staff will include running backs coach John Settle, wide receivers coach Scott Turner,
both of whom spent the last two years with Chudzinski in Carolina, and Jon Embree, a 20-year
coaching veteran who spent the last two as the head coach at the University of Colorado. The
only offensive position coach who survived the purge was offensive line coach George Warhop.
On the defensive side of the ball, 19-year coaching veteran Ray Horton was named defensive
coordinator, after spending the last two years in the same capacity in Arizona. He will be joined
by defensive line coach Joe Cullen, who spent the last three years as the D-line coach in
Jacksonville, outside linebackers coach Brian Baker, who has 19 seasons of NFL coaches with
the last two as D-line coach of the Dallas Cowboys, inside linebackers coach Ken Flajole, who
has 36 years of coaching experience, most recently with New Orleans Saints, and defensive
backs coach Louie Cioffi, an 18-year veteran who spent the last two seasons in the same position
with Arizona. There are changes-a-plenty in Cleveland, but this isn’t the first rodeo for the
coaching staff.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers only had one change on the coaching staff. O-line coach
Sean Kugler left to become the head coach at UTEP. He was replaced by Jack Bicknell Jr., a
coach with extensive O-line experience – most recently at Kansas City. The Steelers have a long
history of loyalty to its coaching staff and that hasn’t changed – whether the Steelers have been a
playoff team or not.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans – The Texans have dominated the AFC South the last two years and, not
surprisingly, had no changes to the coaching staff.
Indianapolis Colts – The Colts lost offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who served as head
coach while Chuck Pagano was going through chemotherapy, as the new head coach of the
Cardinals. The only new members of the Colts coaching staff are two coordinators. Pep
Hamilton, who spent the last three years with Stanford – the final two as offensive coordinator
and QB coach (where he coached Andrew Luck) – as the new offensive coordinator. The move
should make the transition seamless given the familiarity between Luck and Hamilton. The other
change was at special teams coordinator, where Tom McMahon comes over from Kansas City.
The Colts made huge strides last year and, despite a couple of key changes, shouldn’t miss a
beat.
Jacksonville Jaguars – It would seem the head coach of the Jaguars is always on the hot seat.
While Jack Del Rio had more lives than Rasputin. Mike Mullarkey wasn’t so fortunate, as he and
his staff were sent packing. The team looked defensively for a new head coach, hiring Seattle
defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to try to work the same magic in Jacksonville. Offensive
coordinator Jedd Fisch comes to the Jaguars after spending the last two years as offensive
coordinator at the University of Miami. His support staff includes running backs coach Terry
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Richardson, who worked with Fisch at The U, QB coach Frank Scelfo, who spent 2010-11 as the
QB coach at the University of Arizona, tight ends coach Ron Middleton, who spent the last five
years as the combination tight ends coach and special teams coordinator at Duke, and offensive
line coach George Yarno, who spent the last four seasons with Detroit. One the defensive side,
the Jags hired veteran coach Bob Babich as their defensive coordinator. He spent the last nine
years on Lovie Smith’s coaching staff in Chicago – the first six as linebackers coach and the last
three as DC. He is joined by defensive line coach Todd Wash, who spent the last two years with
Bradley in Seattle, and defensive backs coach DeWayne Walker, who spent the last four years as
the head coach at New Mexico State. The Jaguars hit bottom last year and are looking to rise
from the ashes with a new coaching staff and a new outlook. Whether this groups succeeds or
not, it’s been a long time since the Jags were legitimate Super Bowl contenders and Bradley is
being asked to reverse that too-long-standing trend.
Tennessee Titans – After just one season as head coach, Mike Munchak shook up almost his
entire offensive coaching staff. In as offensive coordinator is Dowell Loggains, who was
promoted from QB coach to OC after Thanksgiving late last season. Wide receivers coach Dave
Ragone took Loggains’ job as quarterbacks coach. There are new coaches coming into the staff.
Running backs coach Sylvester Croom, is in his 22nd year as a coach, spending his last three
seasons with the St. Louis Rams (2009-11), Sean Jefferson is the new wide receivers coach after
spending the last five years at that position with Detroit. But the biggest addition to the coaching
staff is on the defensive side of the ball. Munchak brought back disgraced Saints defensive
coordinator Gregg Williams, proving that acumen and a track record can negate a year-long
suspension for his role as the ringmaster of Bountygate. While his title is senior assistant, expect
to see Williams’ fingerprints all over the Titans defense.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos – After losing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, some changes needed to be
made. Adam Gase was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator and Greg Knapp as
quarterbacks coach. Knapp has been a QB coach or an offensive coordinator each of the last 15
seasons, who spent last season as the offensive coordinator of the division rival Raiders. When
you’re successful, you lose coaches, but the Broncos did a nice job to maintain experience and
continuity on the offensive coaching staff.
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs made one of the biggest splashes in hiring deposed Eagles
despot Andy Reid. Reid will be given a lot of authority within the organization and clearly is
calling the shots on assembling his coaching staff. On the offensive side, he added Doug
Pederson as offensive coordinator. Pederson came along with Reid, where he spent the last two
seasons as QB coach in 2011-12 in Philly. So did QB coach Matt Nagy, who spent the last two
seasons as offensive quality control coach with the Eagles. So did assistant head coach/wide
receiver, who spent 14 years with Reid in Philadelphia. The last time they weren’t together, it
was late in the 20th century (1998 to be exact). The same is true for tight ends coach Tom
Melvin, who spent 14 years with Reid, the last 11 years as TE coach. Running backs coach Eric
Bienemy spent the last two seasons as offensive coordinator at the University of Colorado, but is
best known for being the screaming voice in the ear of Adrian Peterson – who responded pretty
well to his tutelage. Offensive line coach Andy Heck, spent the last seven seasons as
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Jacksonville’s O-line coach. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has 13 years of NFL coaching
experience – all with the New York Jets. Defensive line coach Tommy Brasher is entering his
25th year as an NFL coach, including three tours of duty with the Eagles – the last two with Reid.
Reid opted to retain linebackers coach Gary Gibbs and defensive backs coach Emmitt Thomas
because of their experience – both in the NFL and with the young Chiefs defense. Like so many
of Reid’s other hires, he has a penchant to hire coaches with long-term experience with a single
franchise and has shown the ability to be in it for the long haul.
Oakland Raiders – The Raiders didn’t panic and make a ton of changes with head coach Dennis
Allen, but they made some significant changes to the coaching staff. Greg Olson was brought in
as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He spent last season as assistant head
coach/quarterbacks with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Former Miami head coach Tony Sparano was
added as assistant head coach/offensive line and veteran special teams coordinator Bobby April,
who has 22 years of NFL coaching experience, including the last three in Philadelphia. The
Raiders didn’t make a lot of changes, but the ones they made will bring a lot of experience to the
coaching staff and give the team some veteran coaching stability.
San Diego Chargers – Despite making a head coaching change, there wasn’t a complete
turnover on the Chargers staff in the post-Norv Turner era. Mike McCoy was hired away from
division rival Denver, where he was the offensive coordinator. Almost all of the changes made
were on the offensive side of the ball, while the defensive staff remained largely intact. Former
Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the offensive coordinator and he will be
supported by several new coaches, including QB coach Frank Reich, who came with Whisenhunt
from Arizona, wide receivers coach Fred Graves, a 36-year coaching veteran who spent the last
two seasons with Carolina and offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris, another 36-year coaching
veteran who spent the last three years in Buffalo. The only change on the defensive side of the
ball came in the secondary, where Ron Milus takes over. Milus was a coach with Murphy in
Denver the last two seasons. The Chargers are looking for a clean start, but the fact the defensive
coaching staff has remained largely the same is a sign that they believe they’re not in complete
reclamation mode.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys – Jason Garrett has been put on notice, but most of his staff remained intact
after a disappointing 2012, but there were some significant changes. On the offensive side of the
ball, Gary Brown was hired as the new running backs coach, a position he held the last five years
with Cleveland, and the new wide receivers coach is Derek Dooley. Dooley and Garrett were
both on the Miami staff together and most recently, he was the head coach at Tennessee. The
biggest changes came on the defensive side of the ball, where the Cowboys went (really) old
school. Rob Ryan was sent packing and was replaced by Monte Kiffin, who was the guru of the
Indianapolis and Tampa Bay defenses before moving on to USC to coach with his son, Lane.
The Cowboys also added former Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli to coach the defensive line.
After being fired by the Lions, Marinelli spent last season with Chicago Bears as their defensive
coordinator, but was again sent packing when Lovie Smith’s staff was dismantled. It’s a
playoffs-or-bust season for Garrett, but the Cowboys have brought in some experienced
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defensive coaches in hopes of bringing old-school success back to a team known for its oldschool success.
New York Giants – When you’ve won a pair of Super Bowl titles over the last five years, you
keep the band together. The G-men have no changes in their coaching roster from 2012.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Andy Reid era ended and with it came massive changes. It started
with head coach Chip Kelly, an offensive innovator who was the head coach at the University of
Oregon. Changes on the offense begin with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer, who spent 10
years with the Eagles as TE and QB coach and the last two seasons as head coach in Cleveland.
Kelly tapped the college ranks to get Bill Lazor as his quarterbacks coach after spending the last
three years as the offensive coordinator at QB coach at the University of Virginia and offensive
line coach Jeff Stoutland, who held the same position the last two years at the University of
Alabama. Former Eagle Duce Staley was retained and promoted from quality control coach to
running backs coach. Wide receivers coach Bob Bicknell spent the last three years with the Bills
coaching WRs and tight ends. On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Bill Davis
brings 21 years of experience – most recently at Cleveland coaching linebackers. Assistant head
coach/defensive line coach Jerry Azzinaro came with Kelly after spending the last four years in
the same position at Oregon. Outside linebackers coach Bill McGovern comes from the college
game as well, after spending the last 12 years as linebackers coach at Boston College. Inside
linebackers coach Rick Minter spent the last two seasons as defensive coordinator at Kentucky
University. Defensive backs coach John Lovett has 35 years of coaching experience, most
recently as d-backs coach at Texas Tech. New special teams coordinator Dave Fipp spent the last
two teams in the same position with Miami, where the Dolphins had one of the most effective
special teams units in the league. The Eagles are moving in a new direction for the first time
since the turn of the century and it will be interesting to see how the new staff works together
because they come from widely varied backgrounds but definitely will infuse enthusiasm in an
Eagles team in transition.
Washington Redskins – Coming off a playoff season, the Redskins only made a couple of
minor tweaks to the coaching staff. Offensive assistant Mike McDaniel was promoted to wide
receivers coach and the only outside hire was Keith Burns as special teams coordinator. Burns
spent the last six years in Denver as the special teams coach, the first two with Mike Shanahan
when he was still the head coach. With success comes continuity in coaching and Shanahan
didn’t need to make changes because there wasn’t anything wrong.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears – Lovie Smith was one of the longest-tenured coaches in the NFL before he got
fired at the end of the season. Marc Trestman comes in after a stint in the CFL with the Montreal
Alouettes and has assembled an interesting collection of assistant coaches. New offensive
coordinator Aaron Kromer spent the last five seasons in New Orleans coaching the offensive
line/running game. He will serve as both offensive coordinator and O-line coach. Quarterback
coach Matt Cavanaugh is in his second tour of duty with the Bears, having served as offensive
coordinator in 1998-99. He spent the last four years as QB coach with the Jets. Running backs
coach Skip Peete has 15 years of NFL experience as a RB coach – the last six with Dallas.
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Trestman dipped into the college ranks to get wide receivers coach Mike Groh, who spent the
last two season with the University of Alabama. Trestman brought tight ends coach Andy
Bischoff with him from the CFL to continue their working relationship. On the defensive side of
the ball, Trestman brought in new defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who spent the last four
years as the Jacksonville DC. Linebackers coach Tim Tibesar spent 2012 at Purdue as its
defensive coordinator after being Trestman’s linebackers coach in 2009-10 and defensive
coordinator in 2011. In a final move, Trestman hired special teams guru Joe DeCamillis as the
team’s special teams coordinator/assistant head coach. He has 25 years experience, the last four
with Dallas. The Bears had a longstanding coaching staff that started with Smith and, while there
were changes over the years, remained largely the same from one year to the next. The Bears are
going to have a ton of changes this year and it will be critical that everyone gets on the same
page or there could be a repeat locker room implosion like their was last year when things fell
apart.
Detroit Lions – Despite a complete collapse coming off a playoff run the year before, Jim
Schwartz didn’t make many changes to his staff. But most of the changes came on offense. Tim
Lappano moved from tight ends coach to wide receivers coach and was replaced by Bobby
Johnson, who spent last year as the TE coach in Jacksonville. New running backs coach/run
game coordinator Curtis Modkins spent the last three years as offensive coordinator in Buffalo
and the team promoted Jeremiah Washburn to the position of offensive line coach after being an
assistant there for four years. The defensive coaching staff remains the same, but one significant
change came with the hiring of new special teams coach John Bonamego. He is a 26-year
coaching veteran, most recently coaching special teams in Jacksonville. Schwartz shuffled the
deck on offense and special teams, which is often a sign that he has one year to get the ship right
or changes will be made.
Green Bay Packers – The Packers are the class of the division and the only question was
whether another team was going to pilfer their coaches, which has happened often in the past.
Nobody did, so the staff remains the same from last year.
Minnesota Vikings – In his second full season as head coach, Leslie Frazier pulled off one of
the biggest turnarounds in franchise history, going from 3-13 to 10-6 and the playoffs. As a
result, there were no changes to the coaching staff.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons had the best record in the NFC and are returning in 2013 with
the entire coaching staff remaining the same.
Carolina Panthers – Ron Rivera has been a source of controversy for years – often being
interviewed, but never getting a head coaching job. He was on the bubble last year and with
General Manager Marty Hurney fired in the offseason, he is officially on notice to produce or
follow Hurney out the door. Rivera made several staff changes, including the promotion of Mike
Shula from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator and the hiring of QB coach Ken Dorsey
– his first NFL coaching position. The team brought back Jim Skipper as running backs coach
after two years in Tennessee. He returns to the job he held from 2002-10 with the Panthers.
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Ricky Proehl was promoted from offensive consultant to wide receivers coach and Richard
Rodgers was promoted to special teams coach after being the assistant the last two seasons. The
only difference on the defensive side of the ball is linebackers coach Al Holcomb, who spent the
last four years with the New York Giants. Rivera is on a short leash and, given the strength of
the other teams in the NFC South, it could all blow up fast in Carolina if things don’t take an
upward turn this season.
New Orleans Saints – The biggest change here is that Sean Payton is back after a one-year
suspension, but coming in a close second is the hiring of Rob Ryan, former of the Cowboys, as
the new defensive coordinator. The only other significant change was the move of Bret Ingalls
from running backs to the offensive and the hiring of Dan Roushar, who spent the last six
seasons at Michigan State – the final two as offensive coordinator. The other coaching change
came in the secondary, where they hired 23-year college veteran coach Wesley McGriff, who
spent last season as the defensive coordinator at Ole Miss. The Saints coaching staff will have a
different look with Payton back, which might be one of the bigger coaching changes of 2013.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Before Greg Schiano arrived, the word was out was a no-nonsense
guy who could rub some players and coaches the wrong way. One year into his new job with the
Bucs and significant changes of Shiano’s staff have taken place already. On the offensive side of
the ball, there were some changes, including quarterbacks coach John McNulty, who had spent
four seasons as the wide receivers coach with the Cardinals, but coached under Schiano at
Rutgers from 2004-08. Wide receivers coach John Garrett, spent the last five seasons with Dallas
as its tight ends coach and, for the last two seasons, as passing game coordinator. One the
defensive side of the ball, Schiano brought in linebackers coach Robb Smith, who was the
defensive coordinator in Rutgers with Schiano. He also brought in cornerbacks coach Tony
Oden, who comes over from Jacksonville in the same capacity. There weren’t a lot of changes,
but it appears as though Schiano is surrounding himself with coaches he’s more familiar with.
Whether that’s a good move for the Bucs or not will be seen, perhaps sooner than later.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals did a complete makeover of their coaching staff, running
out everyone who was part of the old regime and starting over at a time when the other three
teams in the division are on the rise. Bruce Arians comes in after taking over as head coach of
Indianapolis last year and leading the Colts to the playoffs. One of his first hires was to bring in
longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore as the assistant head coach in charge of offense.
What his role will be has yet to be determined, but Arians has full faith in Moore and he could
end up being given a lot of authority. On the offensive staff, Arians assembled an eclectic group,
led by offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, who was offensive line coach under Arians with
the Colts last year and will also assume that role with the Cardinals. Freddie Kitchens moves
from tight ends coach to QB coach and was replaced at TE coach by Rick Christophel, who
spent the last six years as head coach at Austin Peay. Former Cardinals running back Stump
Mitchell comes back to the organization as RB coach 22 years later – after a long coaches career
that included high school, college and the NFL. For the last three years, he was head coach at
Southern University. Wide receivers coach Darryl Drake held the same position under Lovie
Smith with the Chicago Bears over the last nine seasons. Defensively, Arians hired Todd
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Bowles, who was a defensive backs coach with the Jets, Browns, Cowboys and Dolphins, before
being appointed defensive coordinator of the Eagles at midseason of his first year in
Philadelphia. Arians is giving defensive line coach Brentson Buckner his first pro job. Buckner
was a 12-year NFL veteran who was an intern coach with the Steelers the last three seasons
during training camp. Outside linebackers coach Mike Caldwell is another former Cardinals
player who takes over after coaching linebackers the last two seasons in Philadelphia. Outside
linebackers coach James Bettcher follows Arians over as a special assistant to the head coach
(which turned out to be Arians). Prior to that, he was both linebackers coach and special teams
coordinator at the University of New Hampshire, so he has an eclectic background. Small eastern
colleges got more representation with defensive backs coach Nick Rapone, who has 30 years of
college coaching experience – the last seven as defensive coordinator at the University of
Delaware. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross, who spent 2010-11 in the same position with the
Oakland Raiders, but was a player at Temple when Arians was head coach. They have shifted
from Temple to Tempe 30 years later. The final coaching change was at special teams
coordinator, where Amos Jones comes over after six years in Pittsburgh – the final season as
special teams coach. With so many changes, Arians is going to have a tall order in front of him,
but, given what he did with the Colts last year under adverse circumstances, he has earned the
shot at being a head coach in the NFL and a lot of people in the league are hoping he succeeds.
St. Louis Rams – After his first season in St. Louis, there were only two changes made to Jeff
Fisher’s coaching staff. In his first season with the Rams, Fisher didn’t have a defensive
coordinator after the man he hired (Gregg Williams) was suspended by the NFL indefinitely. He
rectified that in the offseason by hiring Tim Walton, who spent the last four years as defensive
backs coach with Dallas, as the new defensive coordinator. In addition, the time hired Frank
Bush as its linebackers coach. Bush has been an NFL LB coach for the last 25 years, with his last
stop being at Tennessee, where he was retained after Fisher got fired and has been reunited in St.
Louis.
San Francisco 49ers – With a trip the Super Bowl, the biggest concern for a coaching change
was whether or not someone would try to tap into the success and raid their coaches. That didn’t
happen, so the band is staying together in San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks – The only changes were on the defensive front, where defensive coordinator
Gus Bradley got the head coaching job in Jacksonville and took defensive line coach Todd Wash
with him. Dan Quinn returns to Seattle as the defensive coordinator after being retained when
head coach Pete Carroll took over and kept him as defensive line coach. He spent the last two
years at the University of Florida as defensive coordinator, but came back to Seattle when
Bradley’s job came open. Replacing Wash is Travis Jones, who was a D-line coach for the Saints
the last five years. If Seattle has the kind of year so many expect they will, it could be hard to
keep this group together because Bradley may not be the last of Carroll’s assistants to be offered
a head coaching job.
~ end ~
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Movers & Shakers
Adjusting Draft Strategy & Taking Advantage of Scoring Rules
June 28, 2013
By Chris Rito
To any of you reading this article, it comes as no surprise that you should adjust your
rankings and cheat sheets based on the type of scoring system in which you play. For example,
every site worth a hoot will publish separate cheat sheets for both PPR and non-PPR leagues, so
there clearly is a difference in how players are ranked within their positional list. That’s the easy
thing to do, and a necessary first step when one is preparing to play in any league. But that is not
all there is to it. An often overlooked facet of drafting in any league is the way it should impact
your overall draft strategy. Too many fantasy owners modify their cheat sheets with great care,
precision and thought… and then follow the same old plan they would use for any other league,
often blindly take RBs with the first two selections. It’s imperative that you look at your overall
rankings (i.e., across all positions) and see where your projections lead you; many players only
look at their overall rankings about 20 players deep and then go position-by-position, based on
their own team’s need as the draft progresses. But if you look at your overall rankings, you can
start to see how your draft strategy should be adjusted right from the start in round 1 to best take
advantage of the draft.
For the purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the “standard” lineup and scoring
system is a 10-to-12 team, non-PPR league in which you select your weekly starting lineup, and
that the lineup is QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-K-D. This is the basis from which I will start and
to which I will make my comparisons, understanding that your league is probably different.
Actually… the fact that your league is different is exactly the point of this article! I start here
because this lineup is (as I see it) the most common lineup orientation for much of the last 10
years or so and one which is at least familiar to most FFLers. Starting with that definition and the
usual drafting strategies that are used, I will share my personal drafting philosophies and how
they differ depending on the rules of the league. Also implicit in this discussion is the fact that
you must be cognizant of the tiers and overall relative values of the positions and the players;
blindly following this advice when there are far more valuable players on the board would be as
unwise as blindly following the “Stud RB Theory” regardless of your league rules! I will not
cover IDP leagues (that topic will be covered by other expert writers in the premium guide) but
those styles of leagues also will throw a kink into your drafting strategy, and will vary widely
depending on the IDP scoring system involved.
PPR leagues
As this is the most common variation from the “standard” lineup and scoring options – and, in
fact, may currently even be more common – we will start here. The concept of awarding 1 point
for every pass reception does skew individual rankings, but I will not focus on that here; we all
know that guys like Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice were ranked even higher in the
last few years in these scoring systems due to the fact that they could pick up 60-70 points on
other RBs with similar “total yards” production. The real key here is how does this impact your
draft strategy?
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Let me give you some data, just as a place to start the discussion. I took these point
values right from the initial 2013 FFMastermind.com premium player rankings straight from the
Mastermind Championship Projection (MCP) board. I looked at similar numbers from numerous
other sources, and they are all fundamentally in agreement with this trend although the specific
numbers obviously differ. Here’s the thing - it doesn’t even matter if the individual players’
predicted fantasy numbers are correct in this case, since the overall trend is all that is important
to this argument:
Non-PPR league:
(predicted)
2013 points
>100 points
>125 points
>150 points
>200 points
>250 points
# RB
37
29
23
12
4
# WR
51
35
22
5
0
# TE
10
5
1
0
0
# WR
51
32
23
4
1
# TE
12
4
2
0
0
PPR league:
(predicted)
2013 points
>150 points
>200 points
>225 points
>300 points
>350 points
# RB
29
20
15
4
0
The first thing you likely noticed is that the scoring scale is MUCH higher for the PPR
league. As such, I had to somewhat arbitrarily define roughly equivalent levels to compare each
league (This breakdown kept the tiers at WR and TE fairly constant, so I used these levels). The
second thing you likely noticed is that the skewing in the points scored far more significantly
impacts the WR and TE positions than it did the RBs. This should be intuitively obvious since
99% of WR and TE scoring is done via catching passes, but to see the numbers laid out this way
is sometimes surprising.
The one thing you cannot see from this chart (since I did not include it) is that relative
QB scoring is unaffected. Since QB scoring is often so much higher than at other positions, the
higher totals make the tiers (as defined) useless for QBs. Also, they obviously do not catch
passes unless something has gone horribly wrong, so there would be no difference between the
two QB columns in each chart. Since everyone else’s scores go up and QB scoring stays the
same, I won’t spend any more words defending this statement: “QBs are devalued in PPR
leagues as compared to non-PPR leagues.”
Let’s break the rest of these data down further. Looking at the numbers for a non-PPR
league, you can see a major reason why the “Stud RB Theory” is so prevalent in most leagues.
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RBs are very dominant at the top of the scoring chain, and at the highest end they are the sole
residents of the draft board (often they dominate the first 8-10 picks of a draft). But when you
look at a PPR league, now the high-end WRs are actually competitive with the top-rated RBs in
overall scoring; Megatron is the outlier here as it is rare that that any projection has a WR
exceeding the top RB point totals, even in a PPR! The key is always to maximize your value, but
we can assume that the top dogs at either position will show a significant advantage over the
“average” player at that same position, and thus is equal for both the RB and the WR. So what
does this mean? This means that the “Stud RB Theory” starts to break down a little bit when
PPR is involved. When drafting in the early second round, grabbing a WR from the high-rent
district is certainly going to serve you better than taking the RB#15 if usual draft trends hold; in
fact, taking Brandon Marshall in the second half of round one is a wise choice, and drafting
Calvin Johnson as high as #3-4 overall of round one in a PPR league can easily be justified!
Bucking the RB-only trend continues if you look at these numbers some more. In a 10-12
team non-PPR league, you are probably hoping to get your RB#3 in round 4-5 (the tier listed as
>150 points) while those same point predictions put you into the range of an upper-end WR#3.
But if you look at a PPR league, similar overall scoring tiers (>200 points) have you comparing a
strong RB#2 with the tail end of the WR#3 tier. You can see that the WR is simply becoming
more valuable in the first 4-5 rounds of the draft.
As you approach the middle rounds in a PPR league, however, the numbers start to even
out and the mid-range WRs are severely devalued as the backup RBs start to close ground. This
is partly due to the fact that the point totals for weaker WRs show little differentiation since
everyone is scoring something with receptions. This is also due to the fact that there are a lot of
3rd down backs or good receiving RBs that have serious value as flex or bench players in PPR
leagues, but that have minimal value in non-PPR leagues; guys like Danny Woodhead and
perhaps eventually Ronnie Hillman come to mind here.
One thing I have yet to mention is the TE position. While it is known that there is a
premium on a top TE in any TE-required league, these numbers seem to indicate that a PPR
league actually increases the value of the top TEs on the board. Recent trends in the NFL and the
explosive breakouts of Gronk and Graham only make this trend at the top of the charts even
more striking. Looking at the chart for the level at which the top handful of TEs appear, you will
notice that they are on a par with the top 24 RBs in a non-PPR and actually with the first round
RBs in a PPR! So….that RB#24 (which usually goes off the board by the middle of the third
round in non-PPR leagues) has a handful of TEs that will afford similar scoring or higher. Those
numbers are astounding, and this shows that the value of the top two TEs in the now have
draftable value as high as the first round in a PPR league because they all catch so many passes!
I would have never thought this was possible when I started playing FFL, even when Tony
Gonzalez was tearing up the rankings at TE a decade ago. And we saw Graham and Gronkowski
each merit first round selections last year, and likely Graham will sprinkle the first line on more
than few draft boards in 2013 again.
It really is possible to come out ahead by taking WRs high in a PPR league rather than
strictly adhering to a more familiar draft strategy. What you lose in “weakening” your RB#1 will
be more than offset by gains in your stud WRs and your TE as you take the best players on the
board at several crucial pass-catching positions. You can also see that waiting for a QB is a
workable plan in most leagues (if you miss out on Rodgers, Brady, Brees etc.), and an even
better idea in a PPR league which devalues QBs.
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No TE Leagues
It is still somewhat common to see leagues in which the TE is considered to be the same
as any other receiver. While there are a great many more TEs collecting 70+ catches each year, it
is still only the top end of the TE rankings that can make a difference in this sort of scoring
format. Obviously, the key here is to insert your TEs into your WR rankings based on their
actual projected statistics for 2013. However, the one thing to remember is that true draft value
comes NOT from taking a player where his stats indicate, but in taking him as low as possible to
maximize his “value over draft position” For example, the MCP rates top TEs Jimmy Graham as
being the #15-17 player at his position when combined with WRs, thus making him a solid
WR#2. This would place their draft value in this scoring format solidly in the early round 3
range, in either a PPR or non-PPR system. And the reality is that this is about where the big
name TEs will go in either sort of draft, probably higher in PPRs.
The real value comes in those next tiers of TEs, the guys like Tony Gonzalez and Jason
Witten, who are projected around the #23-25 ranking in PPRs and would therefore be WR#3s.
My experience has been that people forget about the TEs a little bit once you get past the big
names at the top of the TE-only list, and one can often get them a round or two later than they
should go! As an extreme example, I have been able to get Tony Gonzalez as my WR#4 several
times over recent years in one league even though he was putting up WR#2 (or even #1)
numbers. Obviously, you can also get guys that would be TE#1 (in a league which required a
TE) as your WR#5 or #6 and come out way ahead on the scoring with lesser risk. Ask yourself
this…who would you rather draft this year: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Eric Decker?
Realistically, in a league in which the TE is not required, Decker will go many rounds before
either TE will... but I would be willing to bet that all three put up very similar overall PPR
numbers in 2013 (Witten perhaps even jumping way ahead of the others), just as most
projections seem to state for them.
Two or Four Starting WRs (or RBs…or QBs…or…)
If the number of WRs changes from the “standard” three that we are using as our basis,
the value of the top end WRs fluctuates dramatically. The basic concept of “draft value” is
derived on two things: actual points scored, and advantage over the average (or the lowest)
player at that some position. This point can be seen very clearly in scoring only leagues wherein
the kickers generally put up the most points in any given season. But there is very little
difference between the top kicker and the #16 kicker; therefore, kickers have very low relative
value as you will get a competitive score no matter when you draft your kicker. In many leagues
this same argument even can be used to describe QBs which often are the highest point scorers
in total, but show relatively little variation between the top guy and the #10 scorer (and thus, the
“worst starter”). Since WR is the position which shows the greatest variation in the number of
starters, I will focus on using WRs as an example in this section, but the same principles can be
applied to any position in which you have a grossly different number of starters from this
article’s “standard” lineup.
If you have a 10-team league with each team starting three WRs, there are by definition
30 starting WRs in your fantasy league each week (forget about bye weeks, etc. for now). In
most scoring systems (PPR or non-PPR), the top tier WRs are projected to outscore the #30 WR
by well over 50%. In this year’s projections, this is comparing Calvin Johnson with Jeremy
Maclin. So now you have a baseline for comparing the top WRs against the worst starting WR in
the league and assigning value. Now, if you only start two WRs, the worst starter is only #20 on
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the overall ranking list (Dwayne Bowe or Wes Welker) and the difference between the top tier
and these guys is considerably smaller. Basically, with only 20 starting WRs, everyone has a
great pair of receivers so the WR is severely devalued. In these scenarios (after Megatron, of
course), you should not reach as high for that top tier WR since the drop-off at other positions
may come sooner and be sharper.
But if that same 10-team league starts four WRs per week, now you are looking at the
difference between Calvin Johnson and the #40 WR (Emmanuel Sanders in the current
projections) as the worst WR starter. Just like the argument made above, this sort of lineup now
increases the value of the top tier WRs. In fact, this also raises the value of the next tiers of WRs
also since everyone has to start so many players at that position. If you can load up on WRs and
(for example) start three top-15 WRs each week, this means that at least two other teams are
starting guys considerably worse than your trio and you have a decided advantage week to week
that can almost always offset slight disadvantages at the other positions. Mike Nazarek and I
have done this with great success several times in FanEx, as have several other owners in that
league. This also means that you can likely cause a WR panic (because there are still human
beings involved, after all…) by drafting WRs with three of your first four picks, and allow better
QBs and RBs to fall to you in the middle rounds anyway.
“Best-Ball” starting lineups
The FanEx Analysis Draft (FAD) recently completed, and this is a good example of what
I call the “best ball” scoring system. In a nutshell, the basic concept is that you do not have to
select your lineup week to week; your lineup is decided after the fact, as your best possible
lineup gets started for you once the stats are determined. While this takes the week-to-week
strategy out of the lineup decisions it also makes drafting very, VERY different. First of all, bye
weeks become very important, especially since these sorts of leagues often also do not allow for
in-season roster changes. If you can select a solid backup TE but he has the same bye week as
your #1, it may be better to eschew the backup until later in the draft and take a lesser one with
an alternate bye week.
It also means that you can draft a stud at a one-starter position (often TE or QB) and then
wait a lo-o-o-ong time for a backup…and then take a below-average guy in the last rounds with
an above-average matchup for the only week that you likely need him. Mike and I did this in the
FAD this year by hitching this season to Cam Newton and then waiting until 25 QBs were off
the board before selecting a riskier backup (Josh Freeman) with a decent matchup on the bye
week.
But the real important facet of the draft is that a certain type of player is now extremely
valuable as compared to a league win which one has to select the starting lineup. We all know
that guy: he is usually a WR that catches very few passes, but when he does get one….it could
become a 70-yard TD lickety-split. As fantasy owners we steer clear of those guys except as
roster fillers late in the draft because we never know when that huge 2-120-1 game is going to
occur. However, in a best-ball format you don’t have to know when they will occur, just that
they will! I won’t list all those guys that are week-to-week explosive and alternate hot and cold
(Santana Moss has made a great career of this, however). The key here is that one can often do
quite well by waiting on WRs until the latter half of the draft and then loading up on a gaggle of
guys like this. In a standard format, you would get crucified by drafting a WR corps of Percy
Harvin, Kenny Britt, DHB, Denarious Moore and Chris Givens. But if you just needed any three
of these guys to score in any given week and did not have to guess which three it would be, you
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could be competitive if you spent the first half of your draft loading up the dependable RBs, QBs
and TE on your roster. Ideally you would want to have a few better studs than this extreme
example, of course….but you can see where the value lies in the early rounds of your draft and
adjust to this sort of strategy very quickly, thus giving you a decided advantage week-to-week
with decidedly unspectacular overall WR numbers.
This same sort of analysis also works to a lesser extent with QBs as there are numerous
QBs which on any given week could put up very solid numbers while being very inconsistent. I
can see Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Sam Bradford and Joe Flacco fitting that formula in this
year’s crop (and maybe even E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith as well) although none would ever be
drafted as a starter in “standard”12 team leagues. The depth among the top 10 QBs is such that
this likely does not have to be your strategy from the start, but you can certainly do well with
two lesser backups rather than one highly-rated QB#2. Once you have your likely every-week
starter in the fold, I strongly recommend waiting on a backup and getting two chances for a big
score every week with guys that could explode once in a while. I also would look for backup
QBs that are likely to scramble one in for a score (like the aforementioned rookies and maybe
even Jake Locker) since that boosts the fantasy numbers better than a big passing day, usually.
This mostly impacts WRs and QBs - positions with more frequent week-to-week scoring
fluctuations among the mid-range or lower players. This also reflects the reason why RBs
generally go at the top end of the draft; it is not just their overall higher scoring potential, it is
also the predictability of their scoring. As such, there is reduced opportunity to use such a ballsy
strategy in these scoring systems by taking a bunch of lesser RBs; there simply are not a lot of
guys that burst into the top 10 weekly rankings at that position from “out of nowhere” (although
I should point out that Ian Allen, Tony Holm and Greg Kellogg have followed a version of this
strategy on-and-off in the FAD with decent success). Nonetheless, in this format, it can be a
very valid strategy to load up on predictable workhorse RBs, one decent and two erratic QBs,
and a cadre of weekly boom-or-bust WRs.
Making a Plan
One thing remains to be stated, and it is very important. Pick your strategy and plan your
draft around it. And make it your plan – don’t listen to any of the so-called experts about which
strategy you MUST use. The strategy is as unique as the drafter, as the league and the league
rules, etc….and in many cases you can win with whatever you choose if you are a smart drafter
and a shrewd owner. It is not unreasonable to take the best player available for several rounds,
and then to adjust to one of these strategies as you see what others around you have done or
likely will be doing. Even within the guidelines listed here, there are a great many variations on
the theme which will be dependant on your draft position, your knowledge of the players in your
league, and many other factors. And while it is important to stick to your plan as best as possible,
it is also important to realize when there is ludicrous value and scoop it up. There is a reason that
the bulk of the successful NFL GMs utilize the “best player available” draft strategy…you can
never have too many good players in any league, regardless of position.
I suggest that you think about experimenting with mock drafts to try new approaches.
And don’t be afraid in a free league (or better yet... in your local, work and/or buddies league, so
as to confuse them and make them uncomfortable!) to try something completely out of character,
just to see if it works; not only will you learn something that could be beneficial for your overall
FFL success and enjoyment, it could be immensely gratifying to really mess with the minds of
the other owners that THINK they know EXACTLY what you will be doing!
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Conclusion
There are of course many other variations on league scoring systems and lineup requirements
which could also alter draft strategy; if there are major opportunities to improve this article for
future years, just let me know and I will certainly work them in! In any draft, remember that the
point of any draft pick you make is not to maximize that selection, but rather it is to help
you maximize your entire lineup or roster. The intent is to make sure that your 8-10 starters
each week outscore the other guy’s 8-10 starters, not just to make sure that your first round pick
matches his first round pick, or your RB#1 matches his RB#1 as best as possible. The style of
your league and its scoring system will clearly have an impact on a good owner’s cheat sheets,
but a great owner will also change his overall strategy in the draft to fit the circumstances.
~ end ~
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The ABCs of Auction Draft Leagues in 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Steve Yerger
It happens to you every year, your excitement is mounting for your upcoming fantasy football
draft and you draw for your draft position only to get position #10. Once again you will get shut
out of the true stud RBs. Well, if you’re looking for a change, welcome to the world of fantasy
football auction leagues, where every player is available to every owner if they have the desire
and/or ability to pay for them. If you’ve never tried it before, it brings a different level of
strategy and fun to your fantasy football experience. This article will give you a general
introduction to auction leagues, and hopefully help you decide to take the plunge. But before
reading on, please note that this article is intended as an overall introduction to auction leagues,
and may be too elementary for your needs.
The Basics
Fantasy Football Auction leagues are exactly what they sound like, an auction where every
owner starts with the same bank amount and bids on players to fill their roster. The most
common format starts each owner with a $200 account and has owners nominate players one at a
time (according to an auction order) to be put on the auction block at a usually predetermined
starting bid amount, with predetermined bid increments in place. Bidding proceeds on the first
player until an auctioneer declares bidding to be over on that player once bidding has stopped.
That player gets awarded to the high bidder, and the auction proceeds to the next player up for
auction. The process comes to a completion once every owner has filled their roster to their
satisfaction and stops nominating any more players. It is important to have minimum or preset
player requirements in place to keep the auction on an even keel. This prevents teams from
spending their entire bank on 3 or 4 stud players and waiting until the waiver wire opens to
complete their roster. What usually happens as the auction is winding down is that every owner
gets to a point where they can only afford to get minimum bid players that they nominate to meet
the minimum requirements.
Style of League
Once you have decided to try an auction league and understand the basics, deciding how to
“complete” your auction is the first big decision.
The “traditional” style is a live auction with an auctioneer, where everyone is in the same room.
The auctioneer should preferably be an unbiased (and sober) individual who does not have a
team in the league. Their job is to keep the auction moving, using a consistent amount of time
before closing a bid, and to track the auction as it progresses. They also need to be empowered
to immediately handle any bidding violations that may occur, such as a identifying a team that is
overbidding on a player which would leave them with not enough cash to meet the minimum
roster requirements. You may even want to offer a small fee to the auctioneer for their services
to ensure a dedicated performance. One of the biggest advantages of a traditional auction is that
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you get to see an owners’ reaction when you top their bid, and can adjust your strategy
accordingly. One of the disadvantages, especially for a first-timer, is that it can be a hectic
environment that could completely overwhelm you if you are unprepared.
The “live online auction” is very similar to the traditional, except that each owner can sit in their
own home and bid in the auction from their own computer. Rather than having an auctioneer,
the site that’s hosting your auction will have an online bid timer that will award the player to the
high bidder when the clock hits zero. Usually a player will initially come up for auction with a
30 second clock that gets reset each time the high bid gets beat. Once the timer drops below 10
seconds for the first time, the clock will then only reset to 10 seconds. The main advantage to
this style of auction is that most sites you use will automatically be tracking the progress of the
auction for you, and will not allow owners to overbid themselves just to run prices up. Also, you
can compete from the comfort of your own home with all of the information you may need
readily available to you. The disadvantage is that you lose the personal interaction, and you
could be at risk of bidding errors, depending on how the site is set up. One popular feature I see
at auction sites is a “+1” button that allows you to quickly enter a bid at 1 minimum increment
above the current high bid. The problem comes along when 3 owners hit the +1 button almost
simultaneously and you end up getting the high bid at 3 above, rather than just 1. To combat
this, I always use the manual bid input screen and type the amount I want to bid while I am
thinking and have it prepared for a last minute bid. That way, if 2 other owners click the +1, one
of them will get stuck with the high bid at 1 higher than they expected. Since your manual
amount no longer beats the high bid, it won’t register and you should have plenty of time with
the clock reset to enter the new amount and think.
The final auction style that I am most experienced in is an “E-Bay” type auction. These auctions
are also done online, however, in this style entire blocks of players are put up for bid
simultaneously with a 24 hour bid clock that gets reset once a high bid is beaten. Usually, once a
player comes off the board after not being bid on for 24 hours, either the team the won that
player or the team that originally nominated that player will have 24 hours to place a new player
on the auction board at the minimum opening bid amount. Once all teams stop nominating new
players, the auction will conclude when the final player comes off the board. These auction
types generally also allow “proxy” bidding, which gives you the option to enter a high bid
amount on a player. For example, Team A currently has the high bid on Player Z at $20 (with no
proxy set and $1 bid increments). If I bid $30 on that player, the system will give the high bid to
me at $21, leaving my $30 amount as a hidden proxy amount. That way, if someone comes in
and bids $22, the system will automatically up my bid to match theirs and my high bid amount
will now display as $22. The clock will not reset until someone bids $31 to beat my hidden $30
proxy bid. This allows the auction to proceed a little faster when the clock isn’t constantly reset.
I find this style of auction the most compelling, as you could have high bids on a block of 7
players that nobody has bid on in awhile, and just as you’re starting to feel comfortable that you
will win all 7 players, 3 or 4 owners may all of a sudden show up and collectively top all of your
bids, causing you to have to completely reformulate your strategy. The advantage of E-Bay
auctions is that allows you to enjoy the auction process from the comfort of your home without
having to set aside a 4 to 5 hour block of time to get it done live. The disadvantage is that the
entire process can take several weeks, depending on your league size.
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The Salary Cap
Once you decide how you want to perform your auction, you need to determine a workable cap
amount. The standard $200 league with $1 bid increments that seems to be most common is
usually set up for a 16 man roster. In this format the average cost per player is $12.50 and the
top studs will go for $50 or higher. If you win a player for $50, you will then need 15 more
players to fill your roster with your remaining $150, or $10 per player, and still be a competitive
bidder. However, if your league uses IDP players or has larger roster sizes, this cap amount may
not be enough to allow for competitive bidding. Assume the same $200 cap with a 32 man
roster, and all of a sudden your average per player is down to $6.25 and a $50 bid would
virtually cripple you, leaving you only an average of $4.75 to spend per player on the rest of
your roster. There’s just not enough room for the bids to escalate high enough to keep the
bidding competitive.
Preparation
The key to auction leagues is not much different than in standard draft leagues: preparation. The
more time you put in before the auction, generally the more success you will have. Bad
scheduling luck and injuries will still play their part, of course, but a well prepared owner will
have a distinct advantage over the guy who walks into the auction with the fantasy football
magazine still stapled inside the bag. This is especially true if your salary cap or scoring system
has peculiarities that make the standard $200 auction values that most magazines produce
irrelevant. Developing your own set of auction values is a tedious and time consuming process,
but is usually well worth the effort. At the very least you should use the auction values given in
your favorite publication as a starting point, and adapt them to fit your league and your own
personal preferences. Also, one of the most fundamental preparations, especially in a live
traditional auction, is being prepared to be organized. If you have the luxury of taking your
laptop with you, have excel spreadsheets set up and ready to go to help you track your
opponents’ rosters. Being able to know exactly how much $ every team has left at any given
moment, and which teams still need their starting QB versus the teams that already have 2 on
their roster, will help you decipher bidding patterns and determine when to stop bidding or when
to turn up the heat. Even if you have to do it manually, come up with a system ahead of time to
track everything, and your auction experience will be so much more rewarding.
Tactics
One of the most intriguing aspects of an auction league is the tactics involved in your bidding
patterns. If there’s a player you absolutely don’t want on your roster, don’t just sit back quietly
and wait for the next player to be nominated. Madly scribble on a blank sheet and act like you’re
crunching numbers to see if you can afford to bid. Also, don’t be afraid to bid on players you
don’t really want. The more others have to spend to get that player just leaves fewer dollars for
them to compete against you with for the players you truly want. Just be prepared every once in
awhile to get stuck with a player that you were merely trying to run up the price on. Also, vary
your bidding patterns and pay attention to others’ (if you happen to be in the same room). If you
enter the bidding early and stay in it to the bitter end only on players that you really want, other
astute owners will catch on to that pretty quickly and easily be able to manipulate you into
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paying a higher price for your must-haves. Another important tactic is to put some thought into
your nominations. I see so many owners just nominate whatever name is next on their list
without even thinking about it. If you spent big early on to get Aaron Rodgers, nominate Peyton
Manning or Drew Brees on your next turn and force others to spend big on a position that you
already have filled.
Strategy
While it’s important to come up with a strategy and try to stick to it, auctions are constantly
changing, and being too rigid with your game plan can cause you to miss out on some nice
values. That’s why my main strategy is to try to get value with every dollar spent. That doesn’t
mean you have to get every player for under the auction value you had assigned to them, because
value can be a relative thing. If the top 9 RBs all went for $10 more than your auction values,
and you got #10 and #11 for only $2 more than your assigned values, that’s a big value victory.
But, despite being a value seeker, when it comes to overall auction strategy, I can’t help myself
from falling into the “aggressive bidder” mentality. I like to feel like I am controlling the
pricing, making teams overspend to get the players they really want. While this strategy seems
to give you a lot of control early on, if you get into a lot of bidding wars in the early stages, you
almost always end up with a few high priced players on your roster. This isn’t a bad thing, as
long as they were the right players who were on your target list, but it does leave you vulnerable
in the later stages of the auction to the opposite side of the spectrum, the “value extremist”.
There is usually only one or two of these owners in every auction, and you can usually spot them
quickly, as they always seem to drop out of the bidding just when it starts to get serious. This
strategy can be quite effective if you can pick the right time to swoop in and start spending the
money you saved by being conservative early on. The problem is being able to identify when
that moment is. What normally happens is that the other owners run out of money too quickly,
and all of that cash that you saved to steal all of the value players later on ends up getting
wasted, as there is nobody left who can compete with you and you end the auction with $20 or so
left unspent, and an unspent auction dollars can’t help your team at all. These two extreme
strategies can be very rewarding if played properly, but they also come with a lot more risk,
which is why you find most owners sticking to the “middle of the road”. These owners tend to
get involved in a decent amount of action early on, but with the sole intent of coming out with
only 2 or 3 higher dollar salaries, and then try to fill the roster with value/upside guys later on.
While this is a safe and successful strategy, it also has risks if too many owners try to employ it,
as too many teams will shut down their bidding for awhile after getting the big dollar guys.
Then, when they’re ready to start getting their value guys, there is too much competition
remaining and these upside type players end up getting bid up above where they should be.
End Game
No matter which type of auction league you decide to try, or which strategy and tactics you plan
to employ, I encourage you to try auction based fantasy football, as it truly gives you an
opportunity to build the exact kind of team you want and gives you access to every player.
While this was just a basic overview, there is a wealth of experienced auction league members in
the ffmastermind.com forums that can provide further guidance. Best of luck in 2013.
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~ end ~
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The 2013 NFL Schedule: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
June 28, 2013
by: John Holler
Of all the homework fantasy owners do, among the most overlooked is the schedule of
opponents a team faces. A fast start can lead to good things all season. A team that drops to 2-4
early has a lot of sledding to do to get back on track and most don’t get that job done.
At FF Mastermind, we noticed the impact of a brutal schedule or an easy schedule into
how teams can make a jump from nowhere to somewhere and back in a hurry. What follows is a
team-by-team breakdown with a focus on where the difficult patches in their schedules will be.
After each team is a list of the final four games – when fantasy owners are fighting it out for a
championship in their playoffs and money is made.
With teams like New England, New Orleans and Cincinnati have ideal schedules facing
them and teams like Green Bay and Minnesota facing brutal schedules, use this as a tool to help
break ties for players who you have rated essentially equal. Having knowledge of when a team
faces the most difficult competition (or the easiest) could be a factor not just on draft day, but
throughout the season. If a team has a brutal closing schedule and players have padded some fat
early stats, trading away those players while their value is at its peak – ideally for players with a
cushy closing schedule, could be the difference between making the playoffs and winning it all.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (STL, at Ten, at Sea, SF) – The Cardinals will have the opportunity
to get off to a solid start to the season. They don’t face a playoff team until Week 6, but then the
schedule takes a nasty turn as they play four straight playoff teams (at San Francisco and vs.
Seattle, Atlanta and Houston at home). Then they hit another five game stretch against nonplayoff teams before closing out the season against the Seahawks and 49ers. It’s not a bad
schedule, it just has a couple of rough patches. The good news for Arizona is that their most
difficult stretch of games are all at home. VERDICT: Fairly Good.
ATLANTA FALCONS (at GB, WAS, at SF, CAR) – The Falcons have the chance to get off
to a strong start. After opening the season at New Orleans, they play four of their next five
games at home. The entire season, the Falcons play just four playoff teams and weather
shouldn’t be a factor during the fantasy playoffs other than a Dec. 8 night game at Green Bay in
Week 14. The Falcons will need to build divisional equity early, because they only play one
division game in December, but the schedule lays out nicely for a division repeat. VERDICT:
Good.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (MIN, at Det, NE, at Cin) – The Ravens don’t get any breaks outside
the division, but they got a scheduling break by getting most of their toughest non-division
opponents at home – 2012 playoff teams Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota and New England. The
only playoff teams they face on the road are Denver in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 17. They
get stuck with a couple of back-to-back road games, but they don’t leave the Eastern Time Zone
for either of them. The only game they play on the West Coast is the season-opening Thursday
night game which will give them 10 days between games, so the schedule couldn’t have fallen
much better for the defending champs. VERDICT: Surprisingly Good.
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BUFFALO BILLS (at TB, at Jax, MIA, at NE) – One of the advantages of playing in Buffalo
is the home field weather advantage the Bills typically have late in the season. However, they
play three of their final four games on the road – two in Florida, which all be negates that
advantage. They have three of their first four games at home, but none of them are they likely to
be favorites in (New England, Carolina and Baltimore). Then it gets worse, as they head to tough
venues to be a road team – New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The schedule never has an extended
stretch of easy games and they may want to move to Toronto permanently. VERDICT: Ugly.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (at NO, NYJ, NO, at Atl) – The Panthers have a tough start of the
2013 schedule with their first two home games against Seattle and the Giants before they hit
their bye week in Week 4. After that they play three of their next four games on the road and, in
a three-week span in November, play the Falcons, 49ers and Patriots in consecutive weeks. It
won’t be easy during the fantasy playoffs, but, if nothing else, they will have control over their
own divisional destiny – playing the Saints twice and at Atlanta in the final four weeks. They
will have to fight their way through a difficult schedule that seems stacked against them.
VERDICT: Bad.
CHICAGO BEARS (DAL, at Cle, at Phi, GB) – The teams in the NFC North are going to face
a gauntlet and won’t get many breaks along the way. Chicago opens the season against playoff
teams Cincinnati and Minnesota and then face the Steelers, Saints, Giants, Redskins and Packers
in a six-week span. They play seven 2012 playoff teams and that doesn’t include Pittsburgh,
New Orleans, the Giants, Dallas and Philadelphia. The only good news is that, when the fantasy
playoffs begin, Chicago has the Cowboys at home and Cleveland on the road, which should keep
fantasy owners from running away in horror, but this isn’t a schedule the Bears want if they’re
looking to return to being a playoff team. VERDICT: Quite Bad.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (IND, at Pit, MIN, BAL) – The most difficult part of the Bengals
schedule will be at the end of the season when fantasy owners. It can argued that the Bengals
won’t be an underdog until Week 10 at Baltimore. They play their toughest early opponents
(Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New England) at home and don’t play a 2012 playoff team on the
road other than divisional rival Baltimore. The Bengals have a lot of steam coming off two
playoff seasons and being viewed as a favorite to win the AFC North this year, but will face their
biggest challenge in December during the fantasy playoffs. The best news is that the three
playoff teams they face are all at home, which should have Cincinnati fans confident that they’re
going to finally reclaim the AFC North title. VERDICT: A Little Too Good.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (at NE, CHI, at NYJ, at Pit) – The Browns have been one of the
worst road teams in the league and the schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Not only do they
play three 2012 playoff teams in their first three road games (Baltimore, Minnesota and Green
Bay), but play three of their final four games on the road – all in potentially bad weather
conditions. There weren’t a lot of reasons to get on the Browns fantasy bandwagon to begin
with, but with such a difficult start and finish to the schedule – when fantasy owners and NFL
teams alike need to set a tempo for their season – it appears that things are pretty dismal for the
Dawg Pound. VERDICT: Pretty Bad.
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DALLAS COWBOYS (at Chi, GB, at Was, PHI) – The Cowboys have been given a schedule
layout that looks ideal from the start – their toughest opponents at home, where they will have a
distinct advantage. They play the Giants, Broncos, Redskins, Vikings and Packers at home and
don’t face a 2012 playoff team on the road until the Sunday before Christmas against the
Redskins – their only playoff opponent on the road. The schedule-makers love America’s Team
and it’s pretty obvious that they laid out their schedule in a way to give Dallas the best chance to
succeed. VERDICT: Suspiciously Good.
DENVER BRONCOS (TEN, SD, at Hou, at Oak) – For having a first-place schedule, the
Broncos get to spread out the more difficult games and, with three of their first four games at
home, will have the chance to get off to a strong start. After their bye week in Week 9, they will
play five of their final eight games against division rivals, so they should control their own
divisional destiny. For teams that play in 16-week schedules, the Broncos have one of the more
favorable runs, with two games at home against warm weather teams and their only road game in
the dome at Houston. If you had any concerns about taking Denver players, the closing schedule
shouldn’t be one of them. VERDICT: Awfully Good.
DETROIT LIONS (at Phi, BAL, NYG, at Min) – For a team looking to come back from a
dismal 2012 season, the early schedule doesn’t help much. They play four of their first six games
on the road and their two home games are against division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. From
Thanksgiving on, they have about as difficult a schedule as anyone, closing out vs. Green Bay, at
Philly, vs. Baltimore and the Giants and at Minnesota in the season finale. The Lions are under a
lot of pressure to recreate the magic of 2011, but this schedule, which includes three back-toback road games, isn’t conducive to getting that done. VERDICT: Quite Ugly.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (ATL, at Dal, PIT, at Chi) – The Packers are going to have to be
road warriors because they play their first four road games of the season against 2012 playoffs –
against Super Bowl opponents San Francisco and Baltimore and wild cards Minnesota and
Cincinnati. With seven games against 2012 playoff teams (as well as Philadelphia, the Giants,
Dallas and Pittsburgh), the Packers will have to be on top of their game and will be tested early
and often with what may end up being the toughest schedule in the league. VERDICT: Butt
Ugly.
HOUSTON TEXANS (at Jax, at Ind, DEN, at Ten) – The Texans will be tested early, playing
the Ravens, Seahawks and 49ers in Weeks 3-5, but, after that, all of their toughest games will be
at home (Indianapolis, New England and Denver). If there is a downside, it is that three of their
final four games are on the road, but they’re all division games, which should give Houston
every chance to once again remain the top dog of the AFC South. VERDICT: Not Bad At All.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (at Cin, HOU, at KC, JAX) – The Colts start the season with backto-back home games in which they will be prohibitive favorites. They will face a tough stretch
before their bye week in Week 8, which includes San Francisco, Seattle and Denver, but will
have five of their six division games after the bye. The also have a decent closing schedule
despite playing on the road at Cincinnati and Kansas City. They won’t be sneaking up on
anybody this year, but they play just two 2012 playoff teams in the second half of the season,
which should help owners with Colts on their roster. VERDICT: Reasonably Good.
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (HOU, BUF, TEN, at Ind) – Few people are going to be
jumping on the Jacksonville bandwagon, but, with three straight home games during the fantasy
playoffs. In their first eight games, the Jags will play only one game in their own division so, if
they can hold up through the initial onslaught of the season, they will have a lot of control over
their future. In their final eight games, they play five games against their division and the other
three against Arizona, Cleveland and Buffalo. If it was any other team, they might have the best
fantasy schedule in the league, but, with owners so gun shy of the Jags, it only gives them reason
to draft one of them and not ignore them completely. VERDICT: Very Good.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (at Was, at Oak, IND, at SD) – The Chiefs will have time to get
their new squad together before they face the critical challenges of winning division games,
which helped them win their division in 2011 and fall flat in 2012. In their first nine games prior
to the bye week, Andy Reid’s new-look Chiefs will play just one game in the division (at home
against the Raiders and will face just one 2012 playoff team in that stretch. Things will get
tougher after the bye, but five of their final seven games are against AFC West opponents, so, if
they’re going to make a playoff run, they’ll do it against division opponents. The biggest
drawback is that three of their final four games will be on the road, but it’s a nice looking
schedule as a whole. VERDICT: Fairly Good.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (At Pitt, NE, at Buff, NYJ) – The Dolphins don’t get any favors done for
them. They play three of their first four games on the road and their two home games are against
Atlanta and Baltimore – both of whom will be prohibitive road favorites. It doesn’t help late
either, because the advantage of playing in South Florida is negated in December by playing
road games at the Jets, Pittsburgh and Buffalo. If the Dolphins are going to make a run this year,
they’ll have to do it without the benefit of a cushy schedule. VERDICT: Very Bad.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (at Balt, PHI, at Cin, DET) – The Vikings don’t play a 2012 playoff
team until Week 8, but the good news for Adrian Peterson owners ends there. Not only do the
Vikings have a Bataan Death March from Week 8 to 16, which includes a pair with Green Bay
and road games at Dallas, Seattle, Baltimore and Cincinnati. Their fantasy playoff schedule
looks difficult as well, with the Ravens, Eagles and Bengals all looking to lock down playoff
spots in December. Throw in that Minnesota loses a home game due to the London meeting with
Pittsburgh (that also includes a forced bye in Week 5), if Minnesota is going to make a repeat
run to the playoffs, it may be just as improbable as their run last year coming off a 3-13 season in
2011. VERDICT: Double-Bag Ugly.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CLE, at Mia, at Balt, BUFF) – The Patriots are always one of
the favorites to be in the Super Bowl and the last thing they need is a schedule that includes
stretches in which they should be prohibitive favorites. With the exception of two short rough
patches – at Atlanta, at Cincinnati and vs. New Orleans in October and vs. Denver and at
Houston in Weeks 12-13, the schedule lays out nicely. With Cleveland and Miami in Weeks 1415 when most leagues are in their fantasy playoffs, it would appear the Patriots are being given
breaks throughout the schedule and could help them lock down home field for the playoffs
VERDICT: Much Too Good.
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (CAR, at STL, at Car, TB) – The Saints are a different team at
home than on the road and will be given every opportunity to get off to a strong start. They play
three of there first four games at home, including division rival Atlanta, Arizona and Miami.
While that catches up with them in November and December – four road games out of five in
that span – with the Panthers twice, St. Louis and Tampa Bay during the fantasy playoffs, that
alone may be enough to push owners into bumping the rankings of Saints players even higher. A
strong start and a strong finish look very possible. VERDICT: Big Easy Good.
NEW YORK GIANTS (at SD, SEA, at Det, WAS) – The Giants won’t be spending much time
at Met Life Stadium early, playing three of their first four games on the road and their only home
game coming against Eli’s brother Peyton. In the first nine games, they play only two 2012
playoff teams and both of them are at home. From the time they travel to Philadelphia Oct. 27,
they will spend more than a month without leaving New York. Their closing schedule will test
their mettle – Washington twice and Seattle at home in the final five – but the G-Men have to
head to the West Coast just once all season, which should bode well if the Giants are expected to
return to the playoffs. VERDICT: Fuggetaboutit Good.
NEW YORK JETS (OAK, at Caro, CLE, at Mia) – The Jets are going to have to prove
themselves on the road through the first three months of the season, playing most of their
toughest games on the road – at New England, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Baltimore. But, few teams
have a more lenient December than the Jets. With home games against Miami, Oakland and
Clevelan and road games at Carolina and Miami, all signs point to the Jets having the deck
stacked in their favor. If the team hasn’t quit on Rex Ryan, they could have a sneaky good
closing schedule. VERDICT: Bad Early, Good Late.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (at NYJ, KC, at SD, DEN) – There aren’t many Raiders that fantasy
owners are drooling over and the potential for them to get off to a rocky start is definitely there –
with three of their first four games against 2012 playoff teams (at Indianapolis, at Denver and vs.
Washington). But, after that initial onslaught, the Raiders face just one 2012 playoff team in the
next 11 games (Houston in Week 11). The fantasy playoff schedule is good through Weeks 1416 and, if the Broncos are resting for the playoffs in Week 17, it could be among the best. But,
seeing how few Raiders are hot fantasy commodities, it may not matter. VERDICT: Bad Team,
Pretty Good Schedule.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (DET, at Min, CHI, at Dal) – The Eagles have one of the more
favorable schedules in the league. If RG3 isn’t ready for the start of the season, the opener on the
road won’t be so daunting. After a three-game road trip in Weeks 4-6, the Eagles will play five
of their next seven games from mid-October to early December at home. The only way weather
will be a factor during the fantasy playoffs will be in Philly, since both their road games in
December are under domes. The Eagles are looking to get off to a fast start and the schedule
appears to be lined up to allow that to happen. VERDICT: Good.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (MIA, CIN, at GB, CLE) – Any schedule that includes seven
teams that made the playoffs last year would almost surely fit into the “Ugly” category, but, if
you have that kind of layout, it couldn’t be much better than the Steelers got. They don’t play
against playoff teams in back-to-back games until Weeks 15-16. But, they do have a lot of games
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vs. playoff teams on the road, including Cincinnati, Minnesota (at London), New England,
Baltimore and Green Bay. The road back to respectability won’t come easy, but, for as bad a
schedule as the Steelers have, it could have been much worse. VERDICT: Bad, But Not Too
Bad.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (at Ari, NO, TB, at Sea) – The Rams won’t have an easy go of things early,
playing at Atlanta and Dallas and vs. San Francisco from Week 2-4, but don’t have any long
streaks of playing against non-playoff opponents. From the start of the season to Week 13, the
Rams never go consecutive weeks without going up against a 2012 playoff team. Fortunately for
them, the longest stretch they have is during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 14-16. The Rams are
a team that is hoping to make strides in what has become one of the toughest divisions in the
NFL, but the saving grace is that they will be indoors for all three weeks of the fantasy playoffs
and, if they make the expected improvement, it could pay off big. VERDICT: Not Too Bad.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (NYG, at Den, OAK, KC) – The Chargers have been notoriously
slow starters and it won’t help that they will have just three homes games in the first nine weeks
of the season – and only twice from Sept. 10 to Nov. 9. Making matters worse is that none of the
home games will be easy, playing Houston Dallas, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati and the
Giants in the first six home games. The good news is that, if the Chargers can withstand five
trips to the East Coast – all for early games – they will have four of their final five games at
home. But, nobody has to travel east to play games at 10 a.m. local time, which historically has
been a killer for West Coast teams. VERDICT: Uglier Than a Philip Rivers Pass.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SEA, at TB, ATL, at Ari) – If the Niners are to repeat as NFC
champions, they’re going to face an early minefield. In their first five games, they play Green
Bay, Seattle, Indianapolis and Houston. Fortunately for them, three of those games will be at
home. After the Houston game in Week 5, they play just one 2012 playoff team in the next seven
weeks. If there is a reason for concern, it is that their fantasy playoff schedule will include
Seattle and Atlanta. Again, they’re fortunate in that both of them will be at home. They won’t
have a paved road to the playoffs, but, if they can hold serve on the road, they have all of the
schedule advantages at home. VERDICT: Not As Bad As It Could Be.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (at SF, at NYG, ARI, STL) – The Seahawks are the trendy pick to
be the next big thing in the NFC, but the schedule makers forced them into three back-to-back
road games. If they are to win it all, they will need to be strong down the stretch. They have four
of their final six games at home, but have to face a five-game gauntlet from Week 10-15 in
which they play four games at Atlanta, vs. Minnesota, vs. New Orleans and at the Giants. If you
play a 17-week fantasy season, home games against dome teams Arizona and St. Louis could be
the tipping point in winning a championship. VERDICT: Not Too Bad.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (BUF, SF, at STL, at NO) – The Bucs lost five straight games
late last season after being one of the surprise teams early in 2012. The 2013 schedule could
shape up similarly. One would think that if the NFL wants to have as many games as possible in
which weather won’t be a factor, they would schedule more games in places like Tampa late in
the season. But, the Bucs will play four of their final six games on the road. Fortunately for
them, three of those will be indoors (Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans), so weather shouldn’t
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be a factor. The Bucs only have to head west once all season and that will be at midseason.
VERDICT: Fairly Good.
TENNESSEE TITANS (at Den, ARI, at Jax, HOU) – The Titans have been left behind the
dominant Texans and emerging Colts and the schedule for 2013 doesn’t hold a ton of promise.
The season starts with road games at Pittsburgh and Houston and, prior to their bye week, a
back-to-back shot against Seattle and San Francisco. Their season will likely be decided in the
second half, as they play five of their final eight games against division opponents. If there is a
plus side to the 2013 slate it’s that, when most fantasy titles are decided in Weeks 15 and 16,
they draw the Cardinals and Jaguars – two teams expected to have been long since eliminated
from playoff contention. VERDICT: Not Good, But Not Horribly Bad.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (KC, at Atl, DAL, at NYG) – The Redskins stunned the NFL by
winning seven straight games after a 3-6 start to the 2012 season. The Redskins face a difficult
schedule that has very few breaks along the way. It can be argued the only back-to-back games
that the Redskins will be favored will be Weeks 3-4 vs. Detroit and Oakland. Outside their
division, their five road games will include trips to 2012 playoff teams Green Bay, Denver,
Minnesota and Atlanta – all of which will be difficult wins. The Redskins shocked the world last
year. They aren’t going to sneak up on anybody this year and won’t have an easy road to repeat.
VERDICT: Kind of Ugly.
~ end ~
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Exploding on the Scene: 2013’s Third-Year Receivers
June 28, 2013
by: John Cooney
There are three factors to strongly consider when projecting which year-three receivers are in the
mix for a breakout campaign.
1. Skill
2. Measureables
3. Opportunity
Receivers that are primed for a breakout performance often share these three attributes. Rarely
does any player in the NFL go on to stardom without a specific skill set. We’ve all heard the
Combine-clichés… solid route runner, a hands catcher, tracks the ball, gets off the line, is proready. All these workout descriptions actually do translate into fantasy football relevance. Sure,
there are those rare breeds that just out-work their opposition and break the mold. But even the
talent-challenged have certain skills that an astute coach can use to the utmost advantage. Wild
Bill Belichick’s utilization of Wes Welker is a perfect example of a player with limited overall
skills being able to excel (and he was a third year “exploder” back in 2007). SKILL… identify
receivers who are just all-around talented or display exceptional aptitude at specific aspects of
their game. For the sharp fanballers, recognizing skill in a receiver comes down to watching
game tape/videos and players passing the “eye test”.
The NFL Combine and college Pro Days offer excellent points of reference when attempting to
create a “want” list of probable third year breakout receivers. Forty-time is the first key
“measureable” to check on. Start warming up to a pass catcher who busts a forty yard dash at 4.5
seconds or less. Running a 4.6 is not a deal-breaker, but any times closer to the 4.7 mark almost
always is a dead-end. A good forty time combined with impressive size (6’1” and above) should
get your third year radar buzzing. Today’s passing game is focusing on bigger wideouts offering
a wider catch-zone and having the ability to “sky” for contested balls. Again, size isn’t the endall, but size-speed packages in the right program are juicy. OK, the route runners you’re looking
at can run fast and are big… can they catch? Likely these players have limited playing time in
their first two pro seasons and fail to provide enough evidence. Take a look back at their college
work, specifically their games played, reception totals and yards per reception average (YPR).
You’d like to see at least two full seasons in college as a starter, solid reception totals that
coincide with the style of offense they played in and a healthy YPR (14.0 and over). Don’t weigh
too heavily the amount of times a receiver finds the end zone in college. With the quirky
offenses and immature passers that abound in the amateur ranks, touchdowns (or lack of) often
do not paint an accurate picture of a wide receiver’s “measurables”. To get our third year
exploder list together, we need receivers mostly that can run, carry impressive size and have
performed on the spectacular side (solid YPR) rather than accumulate numbers steadily (high
catch totals-low YPR).
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Any talented player at any position that is going to put up good-to-dynamic stats needs one key
factor… OPPORTUNITY. The third year receiver is no exception; if he’s going to explode at
all, the junior year pass catcher has to have a chance to “show”. Opportunity knocks in various
ways, such as a longtime veteran wideout moving on to another organization via free agency.
Injury can rear its ugly head and open the door for the third year receiver. A new coaching staff
that wants to put its own stamp on a new offense may suddenly “fit”. A new quarterback, better
offensive line, weaker schedule, a head coach or offensive coordinator talking up a third year
wideout’s chances… whatever the factors are that gets the third year wide receiver on the field,
note it. Being in the league for two years isn’t a guarantee that a wide receiver will explode in
his third go-round. But factoring in his skill set, his physical attributes, college performance and
opportunity to see a major step-up in snaps narrows the field. SKILL, MEASUREABLES and
OPPORTUNITY… recognize and apply!
So which year-three wide receivers are primed to make fantasy owners wish they had called out
their names on draft day?
NOTE: ▲= receiver with excellent 3rd year potential to break out; ▼= drop in production
expected. No symbol means little change positively or negatively.
AJ GREEN- BENGALS, 6’4-211
Team G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 CIN
15 115
65
1,057 16.3 7
2012 CIN
16 164
97
1,350 13.9 11
How much higher can this already accomplished and explosive wideout climb? Green has
tracked down 162 catches and 18 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. The fleet and lanky receiver
is a terrific hands catcher who aggressively attacks the football. He is one of the best high-point
receivers in the game and able to come away victorious on most contested passes his way. Green
possesses breakaway speed, keen concentration and terrific body control when the ball is in the
air. He tracks the football as well as any wideout in the game today. In truth, it is astounding how
he has been able to put up the impressive stat lines in his first two seasons given playing with a
limited-armed QB and his somewhat one-trick route tree. Green mostly runs outside the hash
marks and vertical patterns in the Bengals passing game. In some ways that is a good thing as
the former Georgia Bulldog is long but lean, a bit spindly in the legs and one tends to hold his
breath each time Green skys for a football; he tends to come down tangled with the defender. In
2013, AJ Green’s third season, it is hard to project better digits than the ones he produced in
2012. Cincy’s young receiving corps is deeper, talented and more experienced, QB Andy Dalton
is what he is and two rookies this season (TE Ty Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard) figure in the
pass play calls. Matching 2012’s campaign is the ceiling for the Bengals top playmaker. It is not
a third year “jump” to stardom in the tradition fantasy sense, but AJ Green is already playing and
producing at All-Pro levels. While most wideouts would be viewed as break out by putting up
90+ catches, 1400 yards and 10-12 TDs, For Green it’s just another year. OUTSTANDING!
▲JULIO JONES- FALCONS, 6’3-220
2011 ATL 13 94
54
959
17.8 8
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2012 ATL
16 128
79
1,198 15.2 10
Julio Jones is a physical monster as a wide receiver. Big, fast and strong, the Falcon junior
wideout is set to have his best year ever; isn’t that what third-year pass catching talents do?
Circumstances point to a kick-up in Jones’ numbers this season. Obviously he is now
experienced and playing fast rather than counting his steps in his patterns. He and QB Matt Ryan
are working on the same pages of the playbook comfortably and veteran WR Roddy White,
while still productive, is 31 and a half-step slower these days. TE Tony Gonzalez returns, but his
advanced age sets limits. It is time for Julio Jones to shine. Jones is a consistent hands catcher,
vital in becoming a premier fantasy receiver. The Colts Darrius Heyward-Bey is every bit the
physical equal of Jones, save the hands part; there lies the dividing line in fantasy evaluation. To
go with his great hands Jones brings blinding 4.3x40 speed… OUTSTANDING! What sets
Jones apart from other size-speed wideouts is his sharp run-after-catch skill. He knows how to
use the gifts he has. Look for the Falcon WR to see an increase in targets; just 2 more a game
adds up to 32 more chances to break loose. More throws his way means 90+ receptions and close
to 1400 yards; the scores are a given, gang. An added point-getter for the Falcons’ deadly pass
catcher is his consistent big-play threat. Jones not only will hit double-digit totals for TDs, but
many will be of the long range variety. In Atlanta’s up-tempo offense and pass-centric scheme,
Julio Jones blows up in year three.
▲RANDALL COBB- PACKERS, 5’10-191
2011 GB
15 31
25
375
15.0 1
2012 GB
15 104
80
954
11.9 8
Randall Cobb is among the hybrid wideouts in the NFL carving out a vogue niche underneath
the big, fast receivers we’ve seen come into the league the past few years. Cobb is the Swiss
Army knife of the Packer receiving unit as he can go deep, run slants, scrape the line of
scrimmage on drags and even take handoffs out of the backfield. Heck, he’s even quite capable
of tossing the rock, being a converted QB. Cobb is RB-esque, solidly built at 5’10-191 and
possesses top end speed to break away (consistent 4.46 x 40). In 2012 the Green Bay WR tripled
his targets and reception totals. However, his 104 targets are sure to climb even higher this
season. More importantly with Cobb, he doesn’t solely rely on Aaron Rodgers throwing the
football his way. The former Kentucky product is sure to line up in the backfield and garner a
fair share of carries. Packer coach McCarthy wants the football in Cobb’s hands any way
imaginable this season. Happening right before fanballers’ eyes is a change in the receiving
pecking order in Packerland. Gone are veterans Donald Driver (retired) and Greg Jennings
(Vikings). In limited action last year those two combined for 75 targets, 44 catches and 6 TDs.
Someone needs to absorb those opportunities and Randall Cobb is that someone. The Packers
have had a different wide receiver lead the team in TD catches each of the last 4 seasons (James
Jones, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver). Jennings and Driver are gone; Jones and
Nelson already had their turn… Randall Cobb anyone?
▲CECIL SHORTS- JAGUARS, 6’-205
2011 JAX
10 12
2
30
15.0 1
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2012 JAX
14 105
55
979
17.8 7
Hats off to one of the NFL’s receiving magicians, Cecil Shorts III. The young man arrived in the
NFL from small-school Mt. Union, in a plodding Jacksonville offense with a QB that has more
active, jittery feet than Jacoby Jones on a dance floor and proceeds to put up super sophomore
numbers in 2012. ShortsIII is a precise route runner and a pure hands catcher. A by-product of
his excellent route recognition is his outstanding run-after-catch ability. CSIII sees the field
clearly and finds open seams with regularity. Health has been a bit of a concern as he battled
some ankle issues in college and suffered two concussions last season. The Jaguar wideout hits
the 40 yard dash consistently at 4.5, and is in the physical mold of another Mt. Union product
turned pro, Pierre Garcon. ShortsIII has superior hands and route savvy to Garcon and is just as
explosive with the ball in his hands. Jacksonville’s perceived WR1 Justin Blackmon starts the
year sitting out a suspension, opening the target flood gate for CSIII. While his projected starting
QB Blaine Gabbert isn’t going to set the football world on fire this year, an improvement in
some capacity is expected. If not, reserve Chad Henne runs the show and either scenario bodes
well for Cecil ShortsIII 2013 success potential. This is one of the NFL’s sharpest receivers right
now. Health and opportunity is all that he needs to rise up the WR rankings. With better
quarterbacking this is an 80-90 catch performer with a nose for the end zone. Don’t let the
Jacksonville uniform cloud your opinion of his potential in 2013.
TORREY SMITH- RAVENS, 6’1-204
2011 BALT 16 95
50
841
16.8 7
2012 BALT 16 110
49
855
17.4 8
Torrey Smith seems set to have THAT kind of season in 2013. Gone is target magnet Anquan
Boldin and Smith enters the much ballyhooed year three as a receiver with slight competition for
Joe Flacco passes in Baltimore. Smith is a bit limited in his route tree, mostly running the 7
(corner), 9 (fade) and 8 (post), which are vertical by design. The Maryland product has realized
success running mostly outside the hash marks thanks to his superior 4.4x40 speed. He is a legit
deep threat who has improved his hands as a pro. There are times when the Raven wideout will
allow the football into his body, causing DBs to close in and either knock a pass down or out of
his control. Last season the Baltimore speedster saw an uptick in targets by 15 yet his catch total
virtually flat-lined (50 to 49). However, Smith is a great character guy, a locker room positive
and a hard worker in practice. In 2013, Smith becomes the WR1 for QB Flacco. He’ll need to
continue to expand his route tree, but there is question whether he has the ability to be precise
enough going over the middle and getting into his cuts. Smith tends to be stiff-hipped and
doesn’t “sink” into his changes of direction, rounding out his cuts. Again, DBs key on that and
are able to disrupt footballs his way, which lowers his overall fantasy football ceiling. Also, with
Boldin out of the picture, Torrey Smith is sure to see more double-coverage rolled his way.
There is a lot he has to work through to take the proverbial third year WR leap. Just by roster
alterations and maturity, Torrey Smith’s receptions and yards will rise in 2013, but consistency
and the potential to rest among the NFL elite at season’s end is iffy at best.
▲▲LEONARD HANKERSON- REDSKINS, 6’2-209
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2011 WSH
2012 WSH
4 19
16 57
13
38
163
543
12.5 0
14.3 3
Washington head coach Mike Shanahan is known to drive FFB enthusiasts up a wall with is
merry-go-round use of running backs and quirky rotation of receivers. As maddening as Coach
Shanahan can be for virtual coaches, the Redskins’ field boss is an astute judge of talent and
commonly unveils a new “star” every season. There is a player on the Washington roster that has
all the potential of exploding via Coach Shanahan’s plans the way RB Alfred Morris did last
season, and the many breakout Broncos of Shanahan’s past. WR Leonard Hankerson has quietly
paid his dues under Coach Shanahan. Hankerson lost his rookie campaign due to a hip injury in
week 9. The record-setting Miami Hurricane WR made his 2011 NFL debut in Week 7and his
first start Week 9 versus the 49ers. He suffered a subluxation of his right hip and a torn labrum in
his second start against the Dolphins, and was sent to IR. After a slow start (missed all of offseason programs) in 2012, Hankerson started to gain confidence in his repaired hip; his coach
also started to dial him up. Two of Hankerson’s three TDs last season were over 50 yards. The
big wideout has excellent hands and gets them out to snap the ball out of the air. He displays
deceiving speed and actually timed at an outstanding 4.40x40 at the 2011 Combine. Among the
Redskins’ receiver, Hankerson possesses the best size/speed package. He compares favorably to
former Shanahan pupil Brandon Marshall, with better hands and a better off-field work ethic.
While at the U of Miami, Hankerson broke several of the records held by HOFer Michael Irvin
and NFL star Andre Johnson. A class act, look for Leonard Hankerson to not only earn the
opportunity for more targets, but be the pace-setter in the Washington passing game. Hankerson
has better hands and route integrity that Pierre Garcon, is bigger than any other DC wideout and
fast enough game speed to turn out big plays. Leonard Hankerson is the one pass catcher who
has a clear path and the talent to become this season’s top breakout third year wide receiver. Just
Sayin’!
▲GREG LITTLE- BROWNS, 6’3-220
2011 CLV 16 120
61
709
11.6 2
2012 CLV 16 92
53
647
12.2 4
All the rave and rambling out of Cleveland is the flash and dash of impressive WR Josh Gordon.
Gordon gets the attention with highlight-producing deep plays and spot-light attracting speed.
Running in the Browns’ shadows is another young, physically impressive wideout named Greg
Little. Little is an NFL oddity in that he basically is a huge (6’3-220) possession/slot receiver.
Coming out of University of North Carolina, Little was noted for excellent ran-after-catch
ability. That trait hasn’t come to the fore yet in Little’s two pro seasons. Make no mistake,
however, it is there. The third year WR has been saddled with QB play that has been literally all
over the place. Last year Little efforted to work through the offerings of then-rookie Brandon
Weeden, soft-armed Colt McCoy and walk-on Thaddeus Lewis. In his rookie campaign the
former Tarheel dealt with McCoy’s floaters and Seneca Wallace’s scrambled tosses. There also
was the conservative play calling of Pat Shurmur and Brad Childress. To boot, Greg Little
gained a rep for dropping passes, which came well-deserved. Last season, Little worked on his
concentration and cleaned up the butter-fingers. There still is the occasional slip up, but down
the stretch Little rarely let one go off his hands. He seems to have turned that corner with hard
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work and great practice habits. Entering year three, Greg Little has a new offensive scheme to
work in, installed by aggressive offensive minds Rod Chudzinski and Norv Turner. Both coaches
like big receivers and deeper patterns run by the wideouts. QB Weeden is in a playbook that
better fits his skills; Weeden possesses a strong arm and can get it out quickly. Now playing in a
more natural state, using his God-given talents, Little is able to run confidently in his routes and
allow the game to come to him. Pigeon-holed as a possession receiver with the perception of
being slow, the Cleveland junior receiver will have the chance to showcase his true game-speed
(4.5x40) and have more down-field plays called his way. We should see an early trend with Josh
Gordon sitting out the first two weeks of the season and Greg Little taking the WR1 duties. With
114 catches under his belt already, Greg Little is ready to become another third year success
story for fantasy football owners in 2013.
DENARIUS MOORE- RAIDERS, 6’-194
2011 OAK 13 76
33
618
18.7 5
2012 OAK 15 114
51
741
14.5 7
Oakland’s Denarius Moore has a prototypical NFL WR make up for third year prosperity. Size,
speed, early success, finding the end zone are part of his two year file, but there are a couple of
red flags FFB crazies need to check on. In his two seasons Moore has dealt with various nagging
injuries, capping his overall production. Another caution light is his support environment,
namely at quarterback. Moore was a favorite of Carson Palmer, who now takes snaps in Arizona.
In place for 2013 are the likes of wobbly-armed Matt Flynn, scatter-shot Terrelle Pryor, rookie
Tyler Wilson and Matt McGloin. Carson Palmer they are not! A third step on the brakes issue is
Moore’s health. Those nicks and nags have kept the talented receiver at times off the field or
running at less than full speed. Seems to be a thing with Raider receivers these days. Back in his
Tennessee Volunteer days, Moore was a frequent visitor in the trainer’s room. Camp will
determine the Oakland third year wideout’s potential for 2013. There is no denying Moore’s
ability, however. He is fleet at 4.4x40 speed and shows solid hands. He needs to clean up his
routes, and that should come with more time on the field and in practice. Former QB Palmer
often boasted publically about the Raider receiver’s abilities and while that may have been
Palmer’s way of talking up a teammate, Moore did flash big-play talent and production.
Consistency is key in 2013. Given the state of the Oakland QB stable this season, and Moore’s
iffy ability to stay healthy, a repeat of 2012 stats may be all we can expect for now. Some guys
need to learn how to be a “pro”’ such is the case with Denarius Moore.
▼JEREMY KERLEY- JETS, 5’10-189
2011 NYJ
14 47
29
314
10.8 1
2012 NYJ
16 95
56
827
14.8 2
If you are a big Jeremy Kerley fan and liked what you got from the Jets’ receiver last season,
stop right there; you’ve seen his best. File the memory and cherish it. Kerley is a fine possession
receiver who got far too much action in the deep game last season. The NYJ wideout is best
suited for slot duty, but the sad state of the Jets’ receiving corps forces the game but limited WR
into uncharacteristic patterns and routes. Kerley was involved in every New York pass play 40 or
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more yards last season. He is a quality receiver but is at his optimum best running short routes
and lining up in the slot. For 2013, the TCU product has to contend with more iffy QB play as
Mark Sanchez once again tries to become a pro and rookie Geno Smith figuring to see snaps.
Coach Ryan has made it clear that the Jets will revert to a “ground-n-pound” attack, which
means plenty of handoffs and less routes run . The combination of a run-heavy offense,
inaccurate quarterbacks and a muddled receiving group creates a theatre of mediocre opportunity
for Jeremy Kerely to eclipse his fine work of 2012.
JON BALDWIN- CHIEFS, 6’4-228
2011 KC
11 52
21
254
12.1 1
2012 KC
14 47
20
325
16.3 1
When in college big, fast and talented receivers can get away relying just on their God-given
physical tools alone. The quality of defensive backs a college wideout faces each week depends
on the program and the conference the player competes in. For most, lining up opposite a corner
of NFL-level skill might happen twice in a scholastic schedule. Kansas City’s Jon Baldwin was
one of those guys that got away with doing it “his way” in college, doing the minimum work
required to succeed and using his impressive size/speed to often dominate an over-matched
collegiate DB. Once he made his way to a pro field, he found out that he cannot rest on what he
already has. Slow to accept that he no longer was a BMOC, Baldwin found himself behind in
camps, at odds with his teammates (ask former KC RB Thomas Jones) and in the mutt-hutt of his
coaches. Baldwin’s lack of maturity seems to still be an issue as new head coach Andy Reid saw
fit to get on Baldwin in mini-camp for lollygagging his way back to the line in drills. The Chiefs’
third year wideout is huge at 6’4 and runs a solid 4.49x40; he has been clocked as fast as 4.37 in
the forty. His pass catching consistency can drive a coach or fanballer to line up a few shots at
the bar. Baldwin will make the spectacular catch over, through and behind defenders, then drop
the next routine target. Maturity and lack of good practice habits can be blamed, as the big
receiver body-catches far too often, and tries to turn up-field before looking the ball in. In 2013,
opportunity is abundant for the former Pitt Panther as the Chiefs’ receiving stable is littered with
drop-prone, injury-prone or undersized players. Veteran WR1 Dwayne Bowe is the only
established pass catcher in a Kansas City uniform. In the past under-achieving talents like
Baldwin have found their stride and made the leap to top tiered value in year three; Jon Baldwin
must learn to become a pro in order to take the next steps. So far, learning hasn’t been a strength.
▲VINCENT BROWN- CHARGERS, 5’11-187
2011 SD
13 40
19
329
17.3 2
2012 SD/IR San Diego felt confident enough in Vincent Brown’s potential to let Vincent Jackson to walk last
season. Brown went from possible WR1 potential in 2012 to all-pro spectator, sitting out the
season with a broken ankle suffered in the second pre-season tilt. The good news is that he is
back for the 2013 season, and broken ankles do not usually keep a player from performing the
way they did pre-injury. Brown is being counted on to help revived a slipping offense, one that
ranked in the top five in the NFL for points scored the last eight seasons before sliding to 20th
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last year. The wideout from San Diego State is a clean, crisp route runner and a confident hands
catcher. While not track- fast, Brown’s 4.57x40 speed is effective due to his savvy route running
and excellent vision in finding open seams. Prior to his 2012 pre-season injury, the Charger
receiver was fast becoming QB Philip Rivers’ go-to option. In 2013, San Diego is thin at WR
and receiving options with the exciting but very fragile Danario Alexander back, washouts
Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal trying to re-discover past fortunes and a fast-aging Antonio
Gates patrolling TE patterns. Much is riding on Vincent Brown in 2013. Repaired and ready to
pick up where he left off before his ankle woes, Brown has the tools and opportunity to climb
into low end WR2 value. He knows it is time to show what Brown can do for you.
DOUG BALDWIN- SEAHAWKS, 5’10-189
2011 SEA 16 85
51
788
15.5 4
2012 SEA 14 50
29
366
12.6 3
Over achiever! A compliment for sure, and a perfect way to describe Doug Baldwin. The third
year wideout from Stanford surprised many in 2011 by posting 51 catches and a 15.5 YPR.
Baldwin gave the Seahawks a deep threat that was sorely needed. However, the quick (4.48x40)
receiver got lost in the 2012 shuffle due to mouth, shoulder and ankle injuries. He gutted out 14
games but mostly was never 100 percent healthy. 2013 finds Baldwin in the middle of a crowded
WR group and a game plan that focuses on ball control and the ground game. Baldwin has to
make his way through Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, Chris Harper and others. His
best chance for significant action is in the return game, and even there may be a challenge with
Harvin on board. Doug Baldwin is a solid NFL contributor, but currently there are too many in
Seattle with similar skills and specialties.
▲AUSTIN PETTIS- RAMS, 6’3-209
2011 STL
12 48
27
256
9.5 0
2012 STL
13 48
30
261
8.7 4
6’3-220, 4.5 x 40… not bad measureables for a WR. Those are the digits of 2012- 2nd round pick
Brian Quick, a WR who competed against Division 2 talent and struggled to separate. Pettis,
though not a burner (neither is Quick for that matter) had impressive stat lines at Boise State,
versus top level DBs. Pettis has quietly taken on the challenge and threat to his job posed by the
drafting of Quick. So far in mini-camps and OTAs, Pettis is catching everything and shining as
the best WR in a Rams’ uniform. It is an uphill battle to take snaps away from a high draft pick
like Quick, but Pettis is no slouch, drafted in the third round himself. The good hands pass
catcher is no stranger to an explosive, high volume, up-tempo offense, as he performed at a high
level while at Boise State, opposite WR Titus Young who kept his explosiveness to the field
back then. The Rams’ third year wideout runs a solid 4.5x40, and gets his hands extended away
from his body to bring the ball down. A sound route runner, Pettis is now comfortable with QB
Sam Bradford and now it is showing on the field in practices. Bradford is surely taking notice of
Pettis’ hard work and dedication. The St. Louis WR pen is suddenly filled with depth and
various talents. Coach Fisher is allowing the best players to earn their chances, and out of
nowhere comes Austin Pettis. Part of the practice of targeting third year WRs as breakout
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candidates is due to the complexity of learning to read pro coverages, make appropriate
adjustments and gain the trust of both coach and QB. The light just seems to come on for most in
year three; Austin Pettis appears to have seen the light and it is shining brightly for him
suddenly.
GREG SALAS- EAGLES, 6’1-210
Team
G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 STL
6 38
27
264
9.8 0
2012 NE/PHL 0 0
0
0
0
0
Greg Salas has had an interesting journey around the NFL already in just two years. He has
donned three different jerseys in two seasons, beginning with the Rams, then the Patriots and
ending with the Eagles. He has been a wanted man by established coaches like Bill Belichick
(who traded for Salas) and Andy Reid (who snatched him away from Belichick when Wild Bill
tried to sneak him through waivers). The former Warrior is a record setting receiver at Hawaii.
Much of the 6’1” receiver’s work came on catch and run action, displaying fine burst and an
ability to break tackles. Salas is a hands-catcher, which is usually the case for highly productive
receivers. He is not a burner, but shows good football speed and usually reliable hands. Now
with the Eagles Salas is behind two of the league’s better young veteran wideouts in DeSean
Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Both have proven they can be playmakers and they “fit” Coach
Chip Kelly’s motion offense. However, both have struggled with injuries and neither of these
fleet pass catchers have been keen about working inside the hash-marks. Enter Greg Salas, who
set records running inside routes and turning shorter passes into record-setting yardage. The fastpaced tempo Coach Kelly employs, with the ball being snapped every 20-24 seconds, means
there will be more than two wide receivers in Philadelphia running routes. Coach Kelly demands
a high volume of plays and there are plenty of snaps and footballs to go around if that offense is
in sync. It was just over two years ago that Greg Salas was bringing down 100-plus footballs a
season in an up-tempo, high-volume offense. It is a long shot, but… Mr. Salas, Coach Kelly
wants to see you.
TANDON DOSS- RAVENS, 6’2-201
2011 BALT 6 2
0
0
0
2012 BALT 14 17
7
123
17.6 1
Anquan Boldin is now a 49er. Torrey Smith is an up-n-coming star potentially, but seems to be
mostly a vertical/outside threat. Jacoby Jones danced his way to prominence on the way to
winning the Super Bowl, but he still has buttery hands and is not a savvy route runner. Someone
needs to pick up Boldin’s targets and patterns, and present some kind of physical inside
presence. Tandon Doss may be the guy. Doss goes 6’2 and a tick over 200. At issue with Doss is
health, and if a player is going to be running across the middle in the NFL, hits and thuds are
sure to follow. Doss has experienced far too many dings in his early career. He had some injury
issues as a collegiate athlete also. The Raven receiver shows good hands and is an adept pattern
runner, but his ability to break tackles and gain yards after catch are wanting. He lacks that getaway 2nd gear and is tackled often at reception. QB Joe Flacco is familiar with Doss after
working in practice together for the past two seasons. However, a key to breaking out is being
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available week-in, week-out. Doss needs to learn how to stay on the field and be counted on.
Third year may be the charm for many wideouts, but Tandon Doss has many hurdles to clear and
clear them while staying healthy.
JOE MORGAN- SAINTS, 6’1-184
2011 NO
0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 NO
11 21
10
379
37.9 3
There has to be something in a name. The other Joe Morgan of note is HOF 2nd baseman for the
Cincinnati Reds who based his game on being a playmaker with speed. The football version of
Joe Morgan in New Orleans is exactly that, a playmaker built on speed. Morgan is a raw (hate
that term!).. Morgan is an inexperienced receiver who can flat out burn and blow the top off of
defenses. Morgan’s “slow” time in the forty is 4.49; he is a firm 4.37 dasher who has hit 4.28
according to scouts. A transfer from Illinois to small school Walsh, Morgan may have some
character issues and that popped up in May with a DUI arrest. On the field, the very fleet
receiver is a one-trick pony, running 7, 9 and 8 routes only. He uses his body to cradle the
football in and that is a sign of lack of confidence in one’s hands. Morgan is obviously a
situational option, a work-in-progress and though this is his third pro season, he missed all of
2011 with a knee injury. He needs to gain a big measure of maturity and absorb all the coaching
he can to refine his “raw” game.
ANDREW HAWKINS- BENGALS, 5’7-175
2011 CIN
13 34
23
263
11.4 0
2012 CIN
14 80
51
533
10.5 4
The diminutive slot receiver in Cincy burst onto the fantasy scene last season early on. However,
as the season progressed, Hawkins did not. The blazing fast slotman (4.34x40) saw consistent
snaps all season, hauled in 51 passes but failed to make that speed a weapon, averaging just 10.5
YPR. Going into year three, Cincinnati has bolstered the receiving corps; it is young and deep. In
place of Hawkins, the Bengal coaches have been shoe-horning large wideout Mohamed Sanu in
the slot. The read on that move is Hawkins’ 5’7” target is hard for QB Andy Dalton to find
inside where most slot receivers work. Lacking size and not being able to capitalize on the great
speed he possesses, Andrew Hawkins may find himself running patterns in another uniform
before the season begins. Even then, he’ll need to acclimate into a new system and terminology.
The firefly receiver is exciting with the ball in his hands, but his chances are dissipating in 2013.
ARMON BINNS- DOLPHINS, 6’3-209
Team
G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 CIN
0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 CIN/MIA 10 40
24
277
1
The undrafted big wideout from Cincinnati found himself in a numbers crunch as a Bengal and
eventually ended up in a Miami uniform. The Dolphins put Binns to work and he put up some
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usable game tape. Binns is a tall receiver with decent speed (4.5x40). He is best running inside
the hash marks and has displays good hands. While he runs well enough, Binns doesn’t possess
special running skills to create after the catch. In his third NFL season Binns again lands in a
crowded group as Miami loaded up on receivers in the off-season. In his last two seasons at
University of Cincy, Binns combined for 20 TD catches. His size creates red zone attraction and
he is adept at getting open inside the ten yard line. Being undrafted the Miami WR needs to
shine and work hard to make the roster in 2013.
ALDRICK ROBINSON- REDSKINS, 5’10-184
2011 WSH 0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 WSH 15 19
11
237
21.5 3
Aldrick Robinson is fast… 4.37x40 fast! Robinson caught a school-record 14 TDs and ripped
down 1,301 receiving yards in 2010, second-most ever in a season at SMU. Oddly, the smaller
Robinson carved out a role for himself at SMU in the redzone, turning close to 35% of his SMU
red zone targets into scores. Obviously at 5’10 and possessing 4.3 speed, the redzone is not his
playground, but it does exhibit his ability to play in closed quarters effectively. Robinson is
compared to Eagles flashy DeSean Jackson in stature and speed. However, Robinson plays a
better all-around game, is a fine hands catcher and surprisingly can high-point the football with
his strong 40” vertical. As of now the Redskins third year receiver uses mostly the left side of the
field and doesn’t seem comfortable flipping to the right. He’ll need to expand that limitation, if it
truly is one. Playing with the rocket-armed Robert Griffin III, Robinson can become a true big
play weapon if opportunity presents itself. Keep in mind that Pierre Garcon runs on fragile feet,
and Santana Moss, while aging gracefully, is aging. Aldrick Robinson is a name to keep on
speed-dial in 2013. One slip of the foot or a loss of a step and the fleet-footed SMU product is
seeing significant snaps in an imaginative offense.
OTHER 3RD YEAR WIDE RECEIVERS (2013)
RICARDO LOCKETTE (49ers)-Kaepernick roommate with a high opinion of himself. Deep
threat.
CLYDE GATES (Jets)- vertical route runner with great speed but little versatility.
LESTAR JEAN (Texans)- small school receiver with speed and size.
KEALOHA PILARES (Panthers)- WR in a RB body. Prolific at U of Hawaii opposite Greg
Salas.
RYAN WHALEN (Bengals)- 6’2 possession receiver.
DWAYNE HARRIS (Cowboys)- has a shot as a third WR; 6th rounder in 2011.
KRIS DURHAM (Lions)- 6’6 WR with injury issues thus far; cut by Seahawks last year.
STEPHEN BURTON (Vikings)- spread offense college background; needs to assimilate into pro
game.
SEYI AJIROTUTU – poor hands but decent blocker.
DANE SANZENBACHER – possession receiver with some limited success as a Bear.
ANDRE HOLMES (Raiders)- four teams in last four years; 6’4 but limited skills.
JERREL JERNIGAN (Giants)- small speedster having trouble playing as a pro.
LAQUAN WILLIAMS (Ravens)- fast, undrafted WR with good pre-season tape.
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KEVIN CONE (Falcons)- played college ball at Georgia Tech; good blocker.
TRINDON HOLLIDAY (Broncos)- KR with explosive speed but no chance of seeing offensive
snaps.
DEMARCO SAMPSON (Bills)- 6’2 WR spent time in this off-season with Chip Kelly (Philly).
CHASTIN WEST – former Packer WR and a special teams ace.
KRIS ADAMS – solid run blocking receiver.
KAMAR AIKEN – some big play ability and at times spectacular body control.
JEFF MAEHL – big possession receiver from Chip Kelly Ducks offense.
KERRY MEIER – solid athlete with limited speed; has played RB and QB in college.
JAMAR NEWSOME – cup of coffee with the Chiefs in 2012.
~ end ~
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The Tricks of the Trade in 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Chris Rito
“Draft Day” is often the highlight of the fantasy football season. While the draft atmosphere is
the best, the place where champions often are made is in hammering out a big deal either in the
"offseason" (I hate that word) or during the season. After many years of playing this game, I
have accumulated a series of tips – a “philosophy of trading,” if you will – that I think can help
you initiate the trade, wade through the details and broker a productive deal... possibly taking
you from the realm of the “also-ran” to the level of “champion.” And if nothing else, I think that
following this seemingly simple list of suggestions can make your fantasy football season a lot
more fun. And isn't that the point? As I said, many of these suggestions seem simple, but it is
often the attention to the simple things that can make the biggest difference.
Never pass up a chance to talk trade
This is NOT to be confused with The Bucket List quote about "As you get older...never
pass up a bathroom, never waste a hard-on, and never trust a fart." LOL If someone comes to you
with a trade offer, they are obviously interested in improving their team or in something you
have. But which is it? The savvy owner will see through a trade request to get to the real
burning question in the heart of the other owner. If someone comes to you and says “I’ll trade
you Ronnie Hillman and Josh Freeman for Kenny Britt” does that mean that that guy is
questioning Schiano's love for his incumbent QB or merely that he has great faith in Montee
Ball? That they believe in the "contract year" phenomenon or the revival of the Titans' offense?
That they simply are desperate for help at WR? That they like tall receivers with poor off-thefield records and a tendency towards season-ending injuries?
I often also find it advantageous to approach trading partners in general terms, letting
them know what you are looking for without letting them know who you are looking for. “I am
looking to upgrade at RB#2” or “I’d like to move some WR depth for a better backup QB” You
can see what they want without making any concrete offers, and often can end up getting a better
player than you might otherwise get. Sometimes asking for a particular player can scare off a
potential trader, as they feel that you know something they don’t. Basically, human nature tells
us that “if someone else wants something…then its value just went up in my mind.”
Know your rules
This is the key to good drafting as well as to making good trades. By “knowing your
rules,” what I mean is that one can best take advantage of your situation by shrewdly analyzing
the relative merits of any particular player within the confines of your league’s specific scoring
rules. Knowing which players have value in your scoring system which exceeds their perceived
or their NFL value can help you get a desirable player while giving up less than he is really
worth. For example, in leagues where you MUST start four WRs, the value of the top WRs is
elevated somewhat. Likewise, the trade value (and his value to you) of that third All-Pro RB on
your roster is very different if your league starts one RB weekly versus his value if you are
allowed to start three RBs each week. Does your league rewards pass catching RBs, either with 1
point per reception, or double points for receiving yards or scores? Then NFL backups like
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Danny Woodhead may be much more valuable in your FFL than anyone in your league realizes.
Likewise, unheralded WRs like the 2012 no -name guys like Brandon Myers and Brian Hartline
each caught about 75 passes -- and I know people that were able to obtain each of them last year
for far less than they were really worth!
On the other end of the spectrum you need to know which players are overvalued based
on their actual skill set, and realize that they are prime trade bait to send away in order to get a
player you truly can use. Does your league penalize for interceptions? Then based on recent
history, you will want to trade away Philip Rivers. Even though most people will fall in love
with his yardage and TDs, he averaged 17 INTs for the last three seasons and is ranked much
higher in scoring systems that do not penalize for INTs. Perhaps you can trade him for a guy that
puts up similar fantasy numbers, but is not believed to be as good; Joe Flacco and Russell
Wilson are both perceived as lesser fantasy QBs, but each outpointed Rivers in such systems in
2012 primarily because of the interceptions. Now 2012 was a little bit of a fluke as all the top
passers also threw an uncharacteristic number of picks last year (Brees and Romo led the league,
Stafford and Eli struggled with high totals)...but look for reasons why this happened and
ascertain the likely repeat offenders, and drop them a few slots on your list.
Make an accurate assessment of your own strengths and weaknesses
It is often quite easy to see where your own team could stand a little improvement.
However, the difficulty that most owners have is in realistically assessing one’s own strengths;
most every owner vastly overrates their own team’s assets, often never recovering from the love
affair which started at the draft back in August ! But you must be brutally honest with yourself
about what you really have on your roster, because any potential trading partner will be equally
brutal when your roster gets evaluated for trading fodder. One has to deal from one's own
strength, as well as from your trade partner’s perceived strength of the guys on your roster.
Don't ever assume that you have to get equal "draft day" value for a player, that has been
sucking heavily and weighing down your lineup for the last 7 weeks. If you see that a guy has
been underperforming his draft position - believe me, your potential trade partners know this
too! You cannot expect to get back value on his 2012 or 2011 performance, or to get rewarded
for making a draft pick that looks like a bust in week 7. Understand this fact, folks – if there is
no reason to currently value a particular player on your roster, then you will not be able to get
diddly-poo (apologies to Jim Mora, Sr.) for him in a trade. It’s really that simple. Don’t get too
enamored with a player’s on your roster and his value for any reason except his actual fantasy
performance in 2013.
And like the first trade tip above, this rule also has a flip side: if there is an owner in your
league that is exhibiting this same sort of unnatural fondness for a particular player on your team
and is overvaluing him from a fantasy perspective …. then you have a potential trading partner
that may give you a little more for your man than another team would. We are all guilty now and
again of hanging onto a favorite player for one year too long – I embarrassingly drafted Michael
Turner way too high and too often in 2012, for example – but to be a good trader, you must
know when to walk away from those sorts of guys when they simply aren’t doing it anymore.
This rule also reflects the old adage of “know thy enemy,” because knowing which owners in
your league have a weird and unnatural fondness for FORMER Minnesota Vikings, former
Wisconsin Badgers, or guys named Johnson (yes, we have one of each of those in my local
league)...well that sort of knowledge can only help you in looking to make a beneficial deal
down the road
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"To stud" or "not to stud"?
Many fantasy owners work under the premise that having the best single player will bring
the title, so they have to always get the best player in a trade. Think about this...does the team
with the #1 draft pick always win your league? It has rarely happened in my redraft leagues.
Most people do not believe me but...you can make a great trade and improve your team’s
chances of winning it all by actually trading away a super stud! There are two complementary
situations that occur in most every league, and these situations allow a chance for a really big
trade that helps both teams. Sometimes there is a team with a couple of A-1 fantasy studs, but
that team is only one rogue patellar tendon away from a catastrophic season due to tragically
poor roster depth. On the other side, there are teams that often have a great depth of quality
fantasy starters, but that lack a true superstar or “hammer” in their lineup. These teams can each
do well by working together, and it is really helpful to know which of these two teams you are.
Those teams with just a few superstars and a generally weak roster can often better serve
themselves by trading away one of their “1st-rounder” types for multiple solid players that they
can still start every week. It is obviously possible to make a productive trade by snaring a stud
scorer, but it is also possible to succeed by actually giving one away; this latter possibility is one
that most FFLers would never consider, but they should. I have won using both philosophies, so
it is important to never close the book on a potential package trade just because they ask for your
best single player in return. I will cover this concept more in my two "Golden Rules" later.
Win-win scenarios
It is very important to propose trades that fall under the standard corporate lingo of a
“win-win situation.” Proposing a lopsided deal does absolutely nothing to help your team, and
can only cost you any credibility with that trade partner. Of course, many owners will bluster
about how stupid your trade offer is; when this has happened to me, I always offer my
explanation as to why I think it is a fair offer. If that potential trading partner wants to refute my
logic or valuation of the offer, this serves two valuable purposes. First, it will tell you what his
perceived value is of the guys you have. secondly, it will also help you better assess what he is
looking for in a trade from you.
Of course, with our flawed forecasting skills, sometimes the deal ends up being horribly
lopsided due to unforeseen changes of circumstances like injury or benching. This should never
get you down, as those are the risks we all take even in drafting players. But all deals as they get
proposed should actually look on the surface to help both sides; as crazy and obvious as that
seems, it is often overlooked that one has to be willing to give up something of value in order to
get something of value. Now that doesn’t mean you weaken your team in one area to strengthen
it in another, but merely that you have to give some value to the other team, based on their needs
and your strengths. I am also not suggesting that you rip off your opponents, nor heedlessly
diminish your own team's potential for success; I am suggesting that you find what THEY value
and give it to them - especially if is something you have, but that you don't value as highly as
they do.
"Offseason" trading
For those of you in keeper or dynasty leagues, this is often when the most trade chat takes
place. It is also the time where the biggest risks are taken and where the biggest gains can be
made, so this is fertile ground for some valuable trade possibilities if you are willing to take
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those risks. The reason there are so many risks is that players can change teams, and situations
can be altered greatly if the season is yet 3 months or more from starting. Rookies have yet to be
truly evaluated in the NFL setting, new coaching systems have yet to take root, everything is in
flux.
Of course, all of the same rules I mentioned previously are just as important now as in
any other trade scenario. The most important one is to first understand your rules and use them to
your advantage. For example, I have been in a partial keeper league for almost 20 years, and one
interesting tidbit is that you can keep up to three players every year, but a player can only be
kept three times at the most. So...every year, there are some teams that have an absolute stud that
is very keeper-worthy, but that they will have to release FOR NOTHING IN RETURN. So, this
is a trading partner that may be willing to take a lesser player in return straight-up for their
unable-to-be-retained superstar, just to make sure they can get something. This last season, I was
able to trade for Adrian Peterson and Brandon Marshall in just this way; my trade partner would
be unable to keep Peterson at the end of the season, and had few other keeper-quality players on
his roster. In this case, we made a deal which centered around me giving up lesser stud players
that I would be unable to keep after 2012 anyway (McFadden, Welker and Roddy White). Of
course, Manning McFadden was little help to him in 2012, but he set himself up nice to have
those three guys as his keepers in 2012 . Me? I got a really nice stud for the rest of 2012 and for
the next three seasons. I won that deal, but his resulting depth allowed him to make other trades
later that made us both winners.
Secondly, clearly knowing your trading partners is even more critical now. Remember
that (gasp!) not everyone may be as into their fantasy roster after the Super Bowl as you are, so
some trading partners may be unable or unwilling to really participate in a good dialogue. Not
only do you have to know which owners are willing to trade, you again need to know what their
tendencies are. Do they tend to hoard young players with breakout potential over established
veterans in the second half of their careers? Offer them a young guy that is a cut below their
aging (but still VERY effective) stud and they might take the bait. Or...do the opposite and get
your roster a bit younger while helping them with the "right now" on their team. Using this
philosophy in my 16-team dynasty league just this week, I was able to trade Maurice Jones-Drew
for Montee Ball and a 2nd round pick in next year's draft (those picks are very valuable in this
league). I won at both positions because the guy was valuing RIGHT NOW production over
youth and explosive potential....and my right now was not significantly impacted because I was
already stacked at RB. Some guys in dynasty leagues insist on getting their primary RB's
backup; this may be another opportunity to get a startable WR at the price of an NFL backup RB
that you likely may never use. This is of course a win for the other guy as well, since he also gets
what he wants.
Although I described the other side in that dynasty league trade, I do believe it is very
important to WIN NOW!! Often an owner (especially in a dynasty league) will refuse to make a
trade because they will be giving up a younger player in return for a guy that may only have a
year or two left in the NFL. I have seen fantasy teams that were only one player away from
winning it all…and they fell just short because the owner was too afraid to sacrifice the potential
for future performance for the assurance of current performance. I have always been a firm
believer in making the deal (or the draft selection) for THIS year, and then worrying about next
year… when next year gets here. In my 16-team dynasty league, there was a team that was close
to the title in 2011, and he traded a king's ransom (including his next two first round picks, which
are like gold) for Tom Brady. As you can imagine by replacing his weak link (Jason Campbell)
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with Tom Terrific, he cruised to the title. Do you think he is upset about his team's future,
knowing he captured his coveted first title after many years in this league? Take the title when
you can get it, because once you have it they can’t take it away from you!
The Golden Rules
Most importantly, though, there are two very key questions that I always ask myself before
agreeing to a trade, or before making a trade offer. They are my “Two Great Commandments” of
trading, the ones from which all other rules flow and to which all other rules points. Ask yourself
these questions, and this will make your answer to any trade inquiry an easy one. Answer
positively to both questions and you should make the deal, period. Answer negatively and you
should decline or make a counter offer. The questions can only be answered accurately if you
have done your homework and have thought about a trade using the rules I defined above.
Remember I am a strong believer in the "Win now!" philosophy, so this applies to my keeper and
dynasty league teams also.
1. What will these players do the rest of this season?
2. Does this move make my team or lineup better?
Let’s look at that first question. More often than not, the inexperienced fantasy owner will look
at the players in a trade and assume that past performance guarantees future performance. To
continue the stock market analogy, the key to making a good deal is to “buy low and sell high.”
I don’t give a rat’s behind about what your players did before they were on my team. The only
concern I should have in getting a player from you is “What will he do after he is on my team?” I
also don’t care what my current players will do once they are on your team – that is your
problem at that point. If I can get a player that is underperforming now as compared to what I
believe he will do in future weeks, I will get him for a cheaper price. I don’t care if a guy is
leading the league in receiving if I don’t have any confidence that he will continue to do so.
Whatever the scenario, there are times when the player’s immediate past does not match up with
the expectations of the rest of the season.
There is obviously some speculation and risk involved here, but those that make trades
that “turn out good” often are just better at predicting which players will “kick it up a notch” and
which ones will drop off. Make the predictions as best you can and ask yourself, “Which player
will do more after this trade?” and if the answer is “Player A” and not “Player B” that is
currently on your roster... then you should make the trade regardless of what the season stats say
at that time. As stated earlier, no one is perfect in seeing the future, but you must make your
prediction (and not necessarily the past) to be the focus of your analysis,.
The second great question, and the most important in my mind is “Does this trade make
my team better?” Too many times I have heard owners reject my trade proposal because “this
deal makes your team better.” That would be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Why would I
make the deal if I did not think that it would make my team better? It is absolutely critical to
remember one of the cardinal differences between fantasy football and NFL football: one can do
absolutely nothing to affect the performance of your opponent each week. The key to success in
FFL is therefore to make your own team better. Who cares if your trade makes the other team
better, if it helps your own team to be better? That is all that you can control, so go out and
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control it! If I can sit back after a trade and be more satisfied with my roster and/or my lineup, no
matter what it does to another team – I will do it.
Here is the classic example of this philosophy, although it is a bit older now. In a PPR
league in 2008 I was in dire need of a TE, and had some (almost ludicrous) depth at RB and WR.
There was another team that had two top-notch TEs (could only start one) and needed some help
with his lesser starters. I made a deal that sent Thomas Jones (who was my #4 RB while having a
1300 yard, 13 TD season) and rookie star Eddie Royal (my #5 WR at 91-980-5) to another team
in return for Jason Witten (his backup to Tony Gonzalez) and Michael Jenkins (his beyondcrappy WR#3). Did I give up more scoring and talent than I gained? Of course. Did the other
team gain two starters to my one? Also a “yes”. In the absence of other information, would you
have traded EITHER of those two guys straight-up for Jason Witten, and certainly not BOTH of
them? Heck no! The trade was not made in a vacuum, though, but within the confines of our
rosters. And my lineup was now immensely better for having made the deal. I gave up two very
solid players that would never have started for me, and got a Pro-Bowl player that I started every
week the rest of the way. The other team got two starters for them, and gave up a backup they
had only used once (Gonzo’s bye week) and a weak WR that was no longer a starter with Royal
on their roster. Win-win situation. Sweet justice - we each won our division titles, although we
did not get to meet in the playoffs. Huge trade for me -- I get over the top and win the league.
Game, set, match.
Remember to be open-minded and fair-minded; to seek the mutually beneficial arrangement
where each side wins; to peer into the future as best you can and decipher the trends and likely
outcomes of the players involved; and then most of all, remember to ask yourself if the trade will
make your own team better. Now you are armed with this trader’s full arsenal…so go out and
make some deals!
~ end ~
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Busting the Wedge – Points via Return Specialists
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Special teams make up one-third of a football team’s defined units. The athletes that perform in
these kamikaze groups are a wild and reckless breed, abandoning self-preservation for the glory
of delivering the big hit or turning the tables of a contest with an exciting improvised return of a
kickoff or punt for a score. Each season quite a few fantasy football games are decided by the
results of special teams play. Today, fantasy leagues have taken to including the statistical
outcomes of special teams action, covering not just the full units but the individual bomb-squad
denizens themselves. Creative fantasy football commissioners explore new ways to bring added
value to players, boosting the potential total points scored by their fantasy franchises each week
and adding another avenue of excitement to fantasy lineups. Leagues that have expanded their
scoring menus to include kick and punt return specialists are becoming more common.
Individual special teams inclusion in fantasy football takes some very ordinary players of little
fantasy football relevance and props up their value. Creative fanballers will find ways of taking
advantage of these players who not only see action on special teams returns, but also on the
offensive and defensive units. The glow of excitement has dimmed a bit on kickoffs since the
NFL moved the spot of the ball up as power-legged kickers boom footballs deep into the end
zone without a return. Even-so, kickoff returns still outweigh punt returns in sheer volume of
chances and return yards. Punt returns are dependent on a good defense getting consistent stops.
However, while there are far more kickoff return opportunities than punt return chances, more
TDs are scored on punt returns than kickoffs; there were 17 punt returns for scores against 13
kickoffs in 2012. As for the individual players doing the returning, often coaches are reluctant to
use their starting players as returners given the high-injury risk. But there are in-game moments
or unique team situations that call for the speedy talents of the top line stars to get in there, be the
hero and bring one back. When those opportunities exist, forward-thinking fantasy owners can
be positioned to benefit from the timely punt return or a game-changing kickoff return.
Fantasy owners that participate in leagues that recognize individual kick/punt returners look for
those wild mavericks of special teams that can bring added value each week. In these leagues
there are players that enhance their existing value as offensive players or as IDPs, both in the
fantasy drafts, auctions and as weekly contributors, thanks to their efforts on special-teams.
Players that are usually starters in weekly lineup that also take snaps on special teams are dubbed
here as “Double-Dippers.” These double-dipping players are not only picking up points on
returns, they are scoring on offense and/or defense. A second group contains players whose
“specialize” on kick and/or punt returns, with marginal (if any) contributions on offense or as an
IDP. At this time of the pre-season, with training camps just getting underway, there are a few
unsettled return competitions that have to be considered, with the training camp winner possibly
paying off big ‘returns’.
The past few years the fantasy football world has experienced the brilliant return efforts of
Chicago’s Devin Hester, who inspired many fantasy football commissioners to take a long look
at their league rules and institute changes to include individual kick and punt returns. Bursting
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onto the NFL scene in 2011 was Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson. If your IDP league allows
returns yards and results to be counted, then Peterson return heroics have helped win games, for
you and his Cardinals. Hester and Peterson are just two examples of players who have elevated
their fantasy lineup worth by contributing in the return game. If your fantasy league has opened
up to the excitement of using kick and punt returners in some way in the league’s scoring menu,
then read on; Double-Dippers and Return Specialists can turn and L into a W in one boot of the
football.
Glossary/Key:
Handle- any return touch/opportunity such as punt, kick off or fair catch
HDL- handle
RET YDS- total return yards
YPH- Yards Per Handle; average yards gained per handle
KR- kick return
PR- punt return
RB- running back
WR- wide receiver
One new research statistic I’ve developed for tracking return specialist is called YARDS PER
HANDLE (YPH). A “handle” is any reception of the football by a player in either kick or punt
action, such as returning a kickoff, a punt or calling a fair catch; touchbacks on kickoffs are not
included. YPH is derived at by dividing total return yards by the total number of handles. The
YPH I feel creates a better indicator of which return specialist will potentially put real fantasy
points on the board for owners. Making a personnel decision in the return positions based solely
on total yards or yards per RETURN is coming to an incomplete conclusion. For example,
Miami’s Marcus Thigpen “handled” 70 return chances in 2012; 38 kickoff returns, 26 punt
returns and 6 fair catches. Minnesota’s Marcus Sherels, who many football pundits rate highly as
a returner, handled 75; 16 kickoffs, 32 punts and 27 fair catches. Both were big-time participants
in the kick and punt return units. With his 70 handles Thigpen created 1356 return yards for a
YPH of 19.37. Sherels was far less of a fantasy point producer with his 75 handles, averaging a
YPH of 9.45. Dragging Sherels potential for fantasy points in the return game is his conservative
handling of punts, calling for 27 fair catches. Thigpen waved the hand to call off the dogs just 6
times last season. Which player do you want handling your fantasy football special teams action;
the one getting almost 20 yards every time he touches the football or the guy handling the same
volume of work but netting under 10 yard a handle? YPH is just one more added piece of info to
help fantasy footballers mastermind every potential point producing advantage. A YPH chart of
last season’s results will follow the capsule of return specialists.
Marcus Thigpen, Dolphins (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Running Back Marcus Thigpen produced over and above his expectations for his Miami coaches
in 2012. Thigpen ranked 5th overall in total return yards last season, and turned in a score on both
the kick and punt teams. The Dolphin’s slightly-built reserve RB (5’9-190) brings breakaway
speed to the field, clocking as fast as 4.29 in the 40 yard dash back in 2009. His 2012 return
work is clear for all to see, but it should be noted that Thigpen, though a halfback, saw 28 snaps
as a slot receiver when Devone Bess left a December game due to injury. Thigpen is a former
track star for Indiana University and now potentially the NFL’s top return specialist. The Miami
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special teams star owned a stellar 19.37 yards per handle last season, tops of all returners that
brought back both punts and kickoffs.
Darius Reynaud, Titans (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Now listed as a pro RB, Darius Reynaud lined up as a split end and slot receiver while at West
Virginia. A solid 4.4x40 man, Reynaud has the tendency to make poor fielding decisions in his
efforts to make plays. However there is no mistaking his ability to turn a contest around in an
instant as the Titan ace brought back 1 kick off for a score along with 2 punts for TDs. Reynaud
led the NFL in total return yards, netting 1650 in 2012. He is a willing punt returner with 17 fair
catch calls in his 48 handles, and averaged an impressive 16.34 yards per handle (YPH) last
season (5th best among player regularly working punt AND kickoffs). The Tennessee return
specialist measures 5’9 but is RB-built, weighing in just over 200 pounds. He’ll likely see
competition from Marc Mariani, who owned the job prior to his early season leg injury. Reynaud
could be relegated to kick off duty only given his questionable judgment in the punt game.
Darren Sproles, Saints (KR-PR-RB)… Double Dipper
Sproles ripped up the NFL in All-Purpose yards in 2011, totaling 2696. 2012 saw a precipitous
drop to the tune of 1577 all-purpose production and a disappointing 666 in total returns. His punt
return average took a hit from over 10 yards per return in ’11 to 7.96 last season. Sproles didn’t
bring a kick or punt into the endzone in 2012. Still, the mighty mite is a dual-duty threat,
especially in PPR leagues. With Coach Payton vowing to get the run-game going, Sproles may
see a bigger role again in kick and punt returns. Darren Sproles is a do-it-all player in any
format.
Jacoby Jones, Ravens (KR-PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Jacoby Jones was truly dancing with the stars last season. Jones is a size (6’3-215)-speed
(4.5x40) package that exploded as a dual-threat kick/punt returner in 2012, taking 2 kickoffs
back for scores (including a record 108 yarder) and added a punt return for a TD. His playoff
heroics, along with the vacancy left by departed Anquan Boldin, have helped to propel his
chances of being Baltimore’s WR2 and top returner. Jones averaged 30.7 yards per kickoff in
2012. With all of his sudden fame stemming from his post-season highlights and his star-studded
foray of hanging out with celebrities through the off-season it might be a good idea to keep tabs
on Jones’ on-field efforts early on. A drop in focus and gridiron dedication could sneak up on the
Raven slippery-handed wideout.
Leodis McKelvin, Bills (KR-PR-CB)… Double Dipper
The Bills’ best returner averaged 28.3 per kickoff last season but was even more dynamic on
punt duty. McKelvin aced 2 punt returns for TDs, led the NFL in yards per punt return (18.7),
and was fourth in kickoff returns (28.3)… OUTSTANDING! In YPH, McKelvin ranked 3rd in
the group of returners that lined up for punt and kicks. The Buffalo 2008 1st round pick was
selected as the return specialist on the 2012 USA Football All-Fundamentals Team, which
honors 26 NFL players who exhibit exemplary football techniques for youth players to emulate.
He doubles as the starting left corner for Buffalo and has world-class speed with 4.3x40 time.
Trindon Holliday, Broncos (KR-PR-WR) … Return Specialist
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PURE SPEED! Trindon Holliday runs a true 4.21-forty yard dash and is every bit as fast with the
football in his hands. He’s not big, measuring just 5’5” and lucky to tip the scales above 165, but
the Broncos bold returner is fearless. Holliday called for just 10 fair catches in his 57 punt return
chances and returned one for a score as well as a kickoff for paydirt, too. The Denver burner is
low in the WR depth chart, but a threat to score with the football in his hands. He has been timed
as fast as 4.18 in the forty by some scouts.
Keshawn Martin, Texans (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Houston coaches must like what they have in Keshawn Martin as a returner, allowing dynamic
speedster Trindon Holliday AND dancing Jacoby Jones to walk and ply their wares elsewhere
last season. Martin was steady as a rookie kick off man last season, and even better in the punt
game; Martin ranked 4th in punt return average in the AFC (12.1). He has a chance to gain value
as he competes for the third receiver spot as well as continue his work in the return units. Martin
has good hands and top-end speed (solid 4.4x40 times). This is a return ace to scout closely as
the Texans’ special teams units are always solid and well-coached.
RB Leon Washington, Patriots (PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Leon Washington has made a nice comeback from a devastating leg injury a couple of seasons
ago. Last season, Washington was 7th overall in total return yards (1140) and returned a kickoff
for a score. He did his damage for the Seahawks last season and this year plies his steady skills
for Coach Belichick in New England. Washington’s consistency and reliability is something
fantasy football owners can count on. His offensive snaps virtually disappeared in 2012, and his
prospects for an expanded role in the Patriot playbook is not loaded with optimism. But as a
dual-threat returner, Leon Washington delivers and will have plenty of work in New England.
Josh Cribbs, Raiders (KR-WR) … Return Specialist
Josh Cribbs isn’t figuring into his teams’ offensive game plans these days. Part of the reason is
his injury history grows, and he is best as a returner more exclusively. He is still very good
bringing back kicks on both units however. The now Oakland Raider is gutsy on punt duty,
calling just 8 fair catches in his 46 punt handles. He gives fantasy owners a chance for yards and
the occasional big play most weeks on special teams. Without much fanfare in 2012, Cribbs
amassed the 2nd most return yards in the league (1635), producing impressive kick off (27.4)
return and punt (12.03) return averages. In YPH, Cribbs also was second only to Marcus
Thigpen with a stellar 18.37 per handle. As a Raider he’ll see scant snaps on offense,
concentrating mostly as a weapon in the return game in 2013.
Devin Hester, Bears (KR-PR) … Return Specialist
Hester is no longer running routes at WR for the Bears as he devolves back to his true calling of
full-time kick and punt returner. Hester has been the standard-setter in the return game for years,
but looks to have lost a half-step last season. With less energy spent on running pass routes, the
veteran return ace should be a tick faster and fresher in 2012. Those who might be looking past
the once-fleet athlete might want to recall the superb exploits of all-timer Brian Mitchell, who
excelled in his later years using experience and veteran moxie as a returner. There is still plenty
of roar left in Devin Hester’s punt return den and the savvy Bear is still fearless in his play. He
called just 6 fair catches in ’12 and will give his fantasy owners yards and chances.
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Joe McKnight, Jets (KR-RB) … Return Specialist
McKnight might be the #1 kick returner in the AFC. In 2011, the fleet footed tailback returned
34 kick offs for a 31.6 average and 1 TD. Last season he burst out for 39 kickoff returns for a
27.5 average and another score. His expected expansion as an offensive contributor hasn’t gone
well but he is a sure-fire kick return threat. Though strictly a KR, McKnight ranked 8th overall in
total return yards last season with 1072; 2nd most KR yards behind just David Wilson’s 1533
kick only production.
Ted Ginn, Panthers (KR-WR)… Return Specialist
Ted Ginn brings his special teams act to his third NFL team. Ginn rarely contributes as a receiver
on offense, but is a valued return man. Utilized more on punt returns last year, Ginn was third in
the NFC with a 10.2 average. He’ll compete in camp with WR Joe Adams for return duties. Ginn
is a straight-line blazer lacking lateral shiftiness, relying on his wedge to create lanes.
WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles (PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Jackson hasn’t lined up for punt returns much the past couple of seasons; he was deemed too
valuable a weapon on offense and wasn’t exactly thrilled to volunteer either. However, new
coach Chip Kelly likes his players to be available and flexible and DJax is set to field a few
punts in 2013. Possessing track-star speed Jackson can make big things happen with limited
opportunity. In the recent past under Coach Andy Reid Jackson wasn’t about to put himself in
harm’s way on punt returns and it showed in his lack of enthusiasm. Philly added viable return
men the past two seasons, taking DeSean Jackson off special teams in the process. But with the
new coaching regime comes new attitudes, and DeSean Jackson’s has turned for the better so far.
Richard Goodman, Chargers (KR-WR) … Return Specialist
Richard Goodman is a WR that works mainly as a kickoff return specialist in San Diego.
Goodman is a 4.5x40 runner with steady hands and a decent burst. He’ll compete for the fulltime kick off work this season after handling just 18 kick returns last year.
LaRod Stephens-Howling, Steelers (KR-RB)… Return Specialist
Pittsburgh signed LaRod Stephens-Howling for two reasons; running back depth and flexibility
in the kick return units. Stephens-Howling is comfortable bringing back kickoffs and runs
tougher than his 5’7 frame would suggest. His addition should mean the end of special teams
work for now starting wideouts Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. LSH was average in KR
work for Arizona last year, netting just over 22 yards a pop in his 18 take backs.
Eddie Royal, Chargers (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
When healthy Eddie Royal is a competent punt returner that can break an occasional long gainer.
Royal is a willing returner that will eschew the fair catch for the bring-back, but he has been
giving his fantasy owners diminishing returns. Last season Royal averaged just 5.33 YPH…
weak!
LaMichael James, 49ers (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
Frisco’s LaMichael James is a dynamic playmaker that is waiting for his chance to be “the guy”
in the 49ers ‘move’ offense. For now, he’ll bring explosive returns on kick offs for San
Francisco. James took back kicks for a solid 29.79 average. He was limited to just 14 chances as
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opponents were unable to score against SF with any regularity and Kyle Williams also owned
that job early on before injury. James has outstanding speed (4.3x40) and great elusiveness.
DB Marcus Sherels, Vikings (KR-PR-CB) … Return Specialist
Marcus Sherels is fast (4.3x40) and sure-handed. He also seemed to be learning on the job last
season as the speedy DB called 27 fair catches, 2nd most in the NFL. Sherels did have a 77-yard
punt return TD but a mid-level punt return average (8.97). His cautious handling of punts and
penchant for signaling fair catch dropped his YPH to a disappointing 9.45 yards per. In 2013,
Marcus Sherels has the return job all to himself as Percy Harvin has moved on to Seattle.
Brandon Tate, Bengals (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Tate is a do-it-all for the Bengals in the return game. The former college teammate of Hakeem
Nicks is a proven kick returner dating back to his days at North Carolina. Last season Tate fell
into the Cincy coaches doghouse a bit after a few poor decisions fielding punts, but opted to resign with the Bengals for another go. Tate has good wheels (4.5-40 time) and usually brings the
football down cleanly. His share time with Pacman Jones on punt returns limits his overall return
yards potential, but playing both punt and kick teams assures solid numbers by season’s end.
Dwayne Harris, Cowboys (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Dwayne Harris is the favorite to win the third WR spot in Dallas but he should still see action in
the return game. Harris led the NFC in punt return average (16.1), taking one to the house in
2012. He does see a share on the kickoff units, but punt returning is his gig.
Brandon Boykin, Eagles (KR-DB) … Double Dipper
Boykin filled the role of slot-corner last season and was the Eagles top kickoff return man. The
rookie was steady, returning 45 kicks for an underwhelming 23.04 average. With a year under
his belt Boykin should improve on those numbers, utilizing his 4.4 speed better and finding ways
to create bigger run backs.
Stefan Logan, Free Agent (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Logan is an aging (32) return specialist that is beginning to show some wear. He’s lost a step and
he averaged a lowly 21.32 yards per kickoff last season. He also played the punt game more
conservatively, fair catching 23 of the 56 punts he handles in 2012.
Travaris Cadet, Saints (KR-RB) … Return Specialist
A converted college QB, Cadet is a talented skill player with limited speed (4.6x40) that plays
faster than he times. Cadet worked on the kick units last season, sharing time with Darren
Sproles. Cadet was as good as Sproles in that role, taking back kicks for a 26.5 average (Sproles
had a 26.8 average). He doesn’t have the over-drive gear to scare cover units however.
Michael Spurlock, Lions (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
The Lions let specialist Stefan Logan walk and brought in Michael Spurlock. Spulock helps the
roster in many ways. As a dual-returner, Spurlock brought back a TD each in punt and kickoff
duty last season. The well-traveled Spurlock is a dependable special teams contributor that could
be quite busy in 2013 as a Lion.
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Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
The Falcon understudy for Steven Jackson is a steady kickoff performer that had a solid 25.7
average in 2012. He’s likely to continue that role in 2013. Rodgers doesn’t bring elite speed to
the field and is an unlikely prospect to break off many huge returns on the kick team, but he is
consistent and sure handed.
DeMaris Johnson, Eagles (PR-WR) … Return Specialist
The Eagles main punt returner for 2012, Johnson made plays and at times confounded his
coaches. He was spectacular in bringing back a punt for a TD as a rookie, but also had some ball
security issues as well as decision making gaffs. The 5’7 specialist averaged over 11 yards a
return, but waved for the fair catch almost as often as he would take the rock up field (23 FC- 26
returns). Johnson does play at a fast 4.5 game speed, but needs to mature and gain a feel for the
pro job. Though Johnson was a record-setting kickoff performer in college, his freshman work
was exclusively on punt returns. He’ll have to be outstanding to stick as DeSean Jackson is
slated to catch a few punts this season.
Adam Jones, Bengals (PR-DB) … Double Dipper
Adam Pacman Jones is a fast and gifted player with the football in his hands. Jones is a gutsy
punt returner who is hell-bent on making something happen with each chance; he had zero fair
catches in 2012 on 26 chances. The Bengal corner brought one back for an 81-yard score and
averaged 11.6 per return. Jones shares his duties with another excellent specialist, Brandon Tate.
Brandon Banks, Free Agent (KR-PR-WR) … Return Specialist
Coach Shanahan wanted more contribution from Banks; over 1500 all-purpose yards. What
Coach Shanahan got was half of the wish as Banks totaled a lowly 756 all-purpose production.
Though blindingly fast, possessing 4.3 speed, Banks is woefully small at 5’7 and barley 150
pounds. The former Washington return specialist is sure to resurface as camp competition
somewhere this pre-season.
Specialists Likely to see Reduced Role or Removed From Return Duties:
WR Percy Harvin, Seahawks … Double Dipper
Harvin doesn’t return many kicks or punts anymore, but he did return 16 kick offs and was
dynamic doing so. Harvin averaged 35.9 yards and turned one of those into a TD. His days as a
special teams demon are closing fast and Harvin will likely see few snaps on returns, but his high
touch potential on offense is a PPR dream.
Randall Cobb, Packers (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Randall Cobb’s days as a full-time special teams ace may be coming to an end. Cobb is now a
big-wheel in the Packer passing game and the risk of injury in kick returns may be too high for
the Green Bay coaching staff to gamble on. Still, Cobb piled up 2342 yards of production last
season with 1256 coming on kick and punt returns; he scored a punt return TD. Keep an eye on
the camp news out of Lambeau Field for Cobb’s special teams potential participation this season.
TY Hilton, Colts (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
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The second season wideout brings speed and vision to the punt return unit in Indianapolis. Some
football pundits feel Hilton’s special team work will be sparse this season as his role in the Colt
offense expands. However, Indy signed WR Darrius Heyward-Bey off the free agent market,
providing roster depth at receiver and wiggle room for the Colt coaches to potentially keep
Hilton in the return game. Hilton was OK in his 7 kick returns, but excelled on punt duty,
averaging over 11 yards a return and scoring a TD.
Chris Givens, Rams (KR-WR) … Double Dipper
Chris Givens is fast! When your SLOW time is 4.4, you can fly. The problem with Givens is he
doesn’t see the lanes clearly as a kick returner. Givens’ 2013 role in the offense is sure to grow
from his 2012 use and it is likely his kickoff return work will be sparse. St. Louis has other
options in the return game.
WR Antonio Brown, Steelers (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Brown had that breakout season in 2011, totaling 2211 All-Purpose yards. That stellar
production dropped to 994 all-purpose work in 2012. Heading into 2013, the Steelers need
Antonio Brown on offense and his return chances are down to next-to-nothing.
Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers (KR-WR) … Double Dipper
The Steelers ponied up some new dollars to keep Emmanuel Sanders in town, after a flirtation by
the Patriots to steal Sanders away. Sanders is now being counted on heavily in the regular
offensive game plan and his days as a regular wedge buster may be over. More shifty than fast,
Sanders is confident handling the football and mostly plays on punt teams. Check his pre-season
usage. Pittsburgh signed LaRod Stephens-Howling in the off-season and he is likely to assume
returns responsibilities.
WR Jeremy Kerley, Jets (PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Kereley was a full time performer on offense last season and on the punt return team. However
Kerley seemed to be reluctant to take a chance in receiving punts, calling for an NFL high 36 fair
catches while running back just 19. Thanks to his hesitancy Kerley’s YPH was an abysmal 3.78.
When he did take a chance, he was good; he averaged over 10 yards a punt return and had one
TD. The Jets need his hands and energy more as a receiver this season as the receiving corps is
thin.
WR Julian Edelman, Patriots (PR-KR-WR)… Double Dipper
It is a good probability that Edelman will be taking regular snaps on offense this year as the
Patriots work through a complete revamping of the receiving ranks. But you can never say never
with Coach Belichick at the helm. Edelman is a fast and fearless punt returner who will rarely
call for a fair catch. In limited opportunities last season Edelman broke loose for an outstanding
15.47 yards per punt return, and added a TD to boot. If he could stay healthy, he’d be lethal on
special teams and offense.
Devin McCourty, Patriots (KR-FS) … Double Dipper
Devin McCourty is a Coach Belichick kind of guy; he plays where he is needed. McCourty has
lined up at corner, safety and on kick off units for the Patriots. His 2013 special teams work with
the football in his hands may be capped by the signing of former Seahawk specialist Leon
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Washington. McCourty was steady on kick returns last year and took one to the house. Check on
his pre-season work before considering McCourty in the fantasy return game.
Rueben Randle, Giants (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
AS a rookie Rueben Randle was asked to jump in and help out on punt returns. Randle is a
tentative punt receiver, fair-catching as often as pulling the ball down and taking off with it.
Randle “handled” 30 punts last season, taking 15 upfield and calling off the dogs on another 15.
He averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per handle (YPH)… not what fanballers want in their return guys.
However, his snaps on offense should expand.
David Wilson, Giants (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
The rookie RB led the NFL in total kick return yards (26.89) and number of kickoffs handled
(57). He took one of those to the house. Don’t look for the Giants to put Wilson back there this
season as the young tailback assumes the lead role in the running game.
Other kick and punt returners of note:
Cassius Vaughn, Colts (KR-DB)
Dominique Franks, Falcons (PR-DB)
William Powell, Cardinal (KR-RB)
Brad Smith, Bills (KR-WR)
Kyle Williams, 49ers (KR-PR-WR)
Deonte Thompson, Ravens (KR-WR)
Armanti Edwards, Joe Adams, Panthers (KR-PR-WR)
Arrelious Benn, Eagles (KR-WR)
Niles Paul, Redskins (KR-TE)
Lance Dunbar, Cowboys (KR-RB)
Player
Tommie Campbell
Jerrel Jernigan
Marcus Easley
Deji Karim
Percy Harvin
Travis Benjamin
LaMichael James
Lavelle Hawkins
Clyde Gates
Joe McKnight
Richard Goodman
Brad Smith
David Wilson
Deonte Thompson
Jacquizz Rodgers
Travaris Cadet
Chris Rainey
K
R
0
1
2
9
16
3
14
7
5
39
18
18
57
15
23
26
39
P
R
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
FC
1
HDL
0
1
2
9
16
7
14
7
5
39
18
18
57
15
23
27
42
RET
YDS
65
60
75
328
574
225
417
205
144
1072
497
496
1533
389
592
692
1051
YPH
65
60
37.5
36.44
35.88
32.14
29.79
29.29
28.8
27.79
27.61
27.56
26.89
25.93
25.74
25.63
25.02
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Devin McCourty
William Powell
Rashad Jennings
Kealoha Pilares
Coye Francies
Jeremy Ross
Richard Murphy
Kendall Hunter
Arrelious Benn
Chris Givens
Shaun Draughn
Jalen Parmele
Brandon Boykin
L. StephensHowling
Mike Goodson
Armond Smith
Niles Paul
Lance Dunbar
Keith Toston
Curtis Brinkley
Felix Jones
Isaiah Pead
Armanti Edwards
Cassius Vaughn
LeQuan Lewis
Tom Zbikowski
Josh Robinson
Bryce Brown
Jordan Todman
Marcus Thigpen
Omar Bolden
Anthony Allen
Josh Bellamy
Josh Cribbs
Pierre Thomas
Kyle Williams
Leodis McKelvin
Joe Lefeged
Jacoby Jones
Eric Weems
Darius Reynaud
Chris Carr
Keshawn Martin
Richard Crawford
Brandon Tate
Julian Edelman
27
21
10
9
20
3
5
7
13
23
23
10
45
18
16
6
13
12
3
4
11
10
12
10
5
6
3
8
4
38
14
3
4
43
5
13
18
4
38
13
53
5
31
0
32
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
26
0
0
0
38
0
4
23
0
37
1
31
2
22
8
21
17
1
2
6
8
6
14
16
17
10
2
11
1
27
21
10
9
20
8
5
7
13
23
23
10
46
18
16
6
13
12
3
4
11
10
16
10
5
6
3
8
4
70
14
3
4
89
5
23
55
4
91
14
101
7
63
10
64
21
654
507
241
216
475
189
118
165
306
539
537
233
1044
405
359
131
283
261
65
86
236
212
337
209
106
123
61
156
78
1356
270
56
74
1635
91
405
941
68
1508
231
1650
113
1008
156
982
301
24.22
24.14
24.1
24
23.75
23.63
23.6
23.57
23.54
23.44
23.35
23.3
22.7
22.5
22.44
21.83
21.77
21.75
21.67
21.5
21.46
21.2
21.06
20.9
20.6
20.5
20.33
19.5
19.5
19.37
19.29
18.67
18.5
18.37
18.2
17.61
17.11
17
16.57
16.5
16.34
16.14
16
15.6
15.34
14.33
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Randall Cobb
Justin Rogers
Devin Hester
Devon Wylie
Leon Washington
Brandon Banks
Trindon Holliday
Dwayne Harris
Adam Jones
Micheal Spurlock
LaVon Brazill
Darren Sproles
Joe Adams
Stefan Logan
Ted Ginn Jr.
Javier Arenas
Quan Cosby
Jordan Shipley
Marcus Sherels
T.Y. Hilton
Wes Welker
Roscoe Parrish
Patrick Peterson
Mike Thomas
Emmanuel Sanders
Damaris Johnson
Eddie Royal
Antonio Brown
Danny Amendola
Dez Bryant
Captain Munnerlyn
Austin Pettis
Dominique Franks
Phillip Adams
Jeremy Kerley
Rueben Randle
Jim Leonhard
Devone Bess
38
2
24
9
27
22
21
11
3
16
3
18
9
28
11
10
5
6
16
7
3
4
0
3
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
K
R
31
3
40
5
41
26
48
22
26
17
2
23
11
33
32
34
5
13
32
26
25
30
51
9
9
26
12
27
17
12
14
11
21
25
19
15
15
4
P
R
21
6
2
17
5
10
11
16
14
11
23
12
4
4
2
27
18
7
15
14
4
9
23
8
10
2
5
9
18
9
36
15
16
18
FC
90
5
70
16
85
53
79
44
29
49
5
55
31
84
55
48
14
21
75
51
35
49
65
16
19
49
12
35
29
14
20
21
39
34
55
30
32
22
HDL
1256
69
952
217
1140
705
1033
564
365
614
62
666
335
897
579
501
145
202
709
418
276
384
426
102
120
291
64
183
138
66
89
90
163
139
208
108
107
30
RET
YDS
13.96
13.8
13.6
13.56
13.41
13.3
13.08
12.82
12.59
12.53
12.5
12.11
10.81
10.68
10.53
10.44
10.38
9.62
9.45
8.2
7.89
7.84
6.55
6.38
6.32
5.94
5.33
5.23
4.76
4.71
4.45
4.29
4.18
4.09
3.78
3.6
3.34
1.36
YPH
Note: Many NFL stars cut their pro teeth on special teams, as kick cover grunts or return
specialists. Carolina’s rugged WR Steve Smith, the Lions Reggie Bush, Saints super gnat Darren
Sproles and Steelers’ new top wideout Antonio Brown were one-time kick and punt return
specialists. In training camps new special teams stars are “found” each year as these relentless
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athletes lay it all on the line to make a pro squad. If you are looking for that extra edge, be sure
to read up on your scouting reports, and pay attention to what is going down in the return units
around the league. This is one of the few areas that a player can mostly rely on athletic ability,
rather than game smarts. If you can get guys who are working double-duty (offense or defense,
and special teams) their respective values and the potential for sneaking in a few extra fantasy
points will be higher than one might expect. Double Dippers already have value without the
special teams stats, but usually experience an increase in points due to their kickoff and punt
return prowess. Players that are true specialists can contribute in non-traditional methods for
fantasy football leagues that include return stats as a point producing vehicle.
Fantasy leagues are finding creative ways for virtual franchises to score more points each week.
The return action is one place where many league commissioners are turning to for added fanball
scoring excitement. Get in on the special teams action!
Many happy “returns”!
~ end ~
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RBBC: The Four Most Hated Letters in Fantasy Football
July 26, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Fundamental “FFL 101” lesson #1: The reason that fantasy football drafts are so top heavy in RBs
is not merely because RBs generally are the most consistent performers or the highest scorers. In
the current NFL, it is also because they are in the shortest supply relative to demand, since so
many coaches are relying on a committee backfield rather than a solitary stud. Long gone are the
days when Csonka-Kiick-Morris and Bleier-Harris were the exception – now they are the rule.
Many teams now use some combination of a main running back, a sticky-handed guy as a 3rddown back, a beefier short-yardage/goal line back, and a speedy “change-of-pace” RB. Simple
math shows us that a 10-12 team fantasy league will have anywhere from 20-36 starters at RB,
while the NFL has just a handful of guys that can be reasonably expected to carry the majority of
the load at RB for their respective NFL team. Contrast that to the QB position where there are 32
NFL starters each week and only a need for 10-12 fantasy starters.
Sometimes a team uses RBBC because they have too much talent at RB to keep all the guys on
the bench. Sometimes it is because they have too little talent to make one guy into a feature back.
Sometimes a transition of philosophy (i.e., in the coaching staff or personnel) requires a team to
use an erratic lineup week to week. Sometimes age, specific skills, injury, suspensions or contract
issues rear up and render the commitment to a single guy difficult, often on short notice during
the preseason or regular season.
In fact, this year we may see even more of this phenomenon than usual in the NFL, since
imitation is, indeed, the sincerest form of flattery and is a reality of life in a copycat league like
the NFL. In 2007, the Giants rode a three-headed monster to a stunning upset of the seemingly
invincible Patriots in the SuperBowl. That year the Patriots’ passing game got all the attention,
but they, too, were using an effective three-way RBBC all season as well. Over the last 6-7 years,
even more teams have morphed towards this fantasy nightmare that is proving to be effective in
the NFL. Whatever the reason in any specific case, there are a lot of these situations in the NFL
currently (by my count, over half of the league's 32 teams), so I will detail the situations in all 32
NFL locker rooms for you, looking at the potential or perceived RBBCs. Hopefully this list will
help you decide which gamble you wish to take for your fantasy squad on your draft day.
Arizona Cardinals
Will it be the pedigree of Rashard Mendenhall or the untapped potential of Ryan Williams that is
the best fantasy producer in the desert? Mendenhall's track record in the pros is pockmarked with
dings and injuries, but he was a solid fantasy performer in Pittsburgh for two seasons when
coupled with current Cardinals' head coach Bruce Arians. Williams may be the better pure runner
and has more upside, but is a much longer shot to win the job...and there will be a winner,
because Arians is a big believer in the use of a single workhorse back. Of course, both guys are
coming off injury-marred seasons as well, so one wonders how much of either we will see in the
preseason to help us decide the value here. So...with his history as a proven pro performer
(especially with Arians), I would be surprised if a healthy Mendenhall does not usurp over 80%
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of the backfield work in Arizona. It also would not surprise me if a good camp by the two rookie
RBs puts Williams in the unemployment line. Key stat: As a team, Arizona was dead last in the
NFL in 2012 in rushing attempts, yards and YPC.
Atlanta Falcons
Tiring of the plodding by the fading Michael Turner, the Falcons made a splash in free agency by
getting longtime Ram stud Steven Jackson, putting to rest any thoughts of Jacquizz Rodgers
taking part in a RBBC. Quizz won't even be as much of a 3rd down back as before, since Jackson
is one of the premier passing-down RBs in the game and is riding a streak of eight straight 1000
yard rushing seasons, and is averaging nearly 50 catches per year in that time also. Remember
that the guy that would be the feature back in case of injury to Jackson is probably Jason Snelling,
and he makes a better handcuff if you are so inclined. Barring catastrophe, S-Jax still should be a
low-end RB#1 for any team despite being available as a RB#2 or even as a #3. Key stat: Michael
Turner caught 59 passes combined in his 5 years in Atlanta; Jackson has averaged 49 catches over
the last 8 seasons
Baltimore Ravens
Ray Rice is the real deal and is a surefire top 5-7 selection in any draft in 2013. He will be among
the league leaders in touches and RB receptions, and is a game breaker. He may also be the best
receiving option on his team. I expect that second-year man Bernard Pierce will contribute more
in 2013 in the backup role, and will be a must-have fantasy handcuff in 2013. This is not as onedimensional of a backfield as it has been, but the lion's share of the work will still go to Rice.
Pierce is still draftable in the middle rounds even if not being used as a handcuff, as a solid part
time player with high upside. Key stat: Despite having a disappointing statistical season, Ray
Rice was 2nd in the NFL among RBs in receptions and targets last year.
Buffalo Bills
The Fred Jackson experience has finally come to an end. C.J. Spiller exploded on the fantasy
scene last season, finishing in the top ten overall and setting himself up to be the bell cow in
Buffalo. Many wonder if the veteran Fred Jackson will cut into Spillers touches, especially down
around the goal line, but my bet is that he gets just enough action to keep Spiller fresh. Jackson
was already being phased out last season even before struggling with some nagging injuries, so I
do not expect that the new coaching regime will see him as a viable option nor will they try to do
too much with the cagey vet. It is worth noting though, that despite seeing limited action and
despite Spiller's prowess as a receiver, Jackson actually had nearly as many targets and receptions
as Spiller last season. Key stat: C.J. Spiller led the league in fantasy points per "touch" and YPC
in 2012
Carolina Panthers
Just when you thought it could not get any murkier in Carolina.... Jonathan Stewart as the starter
and DeAngelo Williams as the nominal backup have split work over the last few seasons and
collectively formed a very effective RBBC. Although both guys can run inside and out, this is the
most talented “Thunder and Lightning” sort of arrangement in the NFL with the powerful Stewart
and the speedy Williams able to take turns abusing opposing defenses. Then the new goal line
back in Carolina became the QB Cam Newton as he rushed for 14 TDs as a rookie, mostly from
inside the five. Then, in 2012 the Panthers signed the league's other best goal line back Mike
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Tolbert to a decent deal, so goodness knows who will get touches in Carolina. Then they drafted
another RB this year! If one of the two veterans in the backfield gets hurt (as usual), the
remaining guy will vastly outperform his draft position and be a decent RB#2. Both are midround draft worthy and both have spotty potential week to week, with Williams likely to start the
season better due to Stewart's delayed recovery from offseason surgery. Key stat: The Panthers
have scored 47 rushing TDs in the last two seasons combined.
Chicago Bears
For the first time in his 5-year career, Matt Forte did not lead the team in both rushing and
receptions (only because of Brandon Marshall's ludicrous reception totals). Michael Bush was
signed last year to take some of the pressure off of Forte as he recovered from a 2011 injury, but
Bush's own injury woes limited his role in 2012. Bush surely will cut into Forte's goal line looks
and also has the ability to push the pile, play the 3rd down role, or even carry the load as a feature
back as he has shown in recent years. But the real deal here is that new coach Mark Trestman is
sure to use the receiving skills of Matt Forte even more than in the past, and this might indeed
reduce the role that Michael Bush will play in 2013. I look for Forte to still get the bulk of the
action and to be a great RB#2 and maybe even a low-end #1 in 2013, and for his total touches to
be a bit higher as compared to recent seasons. This makes Bush lass interesting as a part time
RBBC type of draft pick, and only has value as a handcuff or in case of a Forte Injury, except in
scoring-heavy leagues. Key stat: Michael Bush (5) had nearly as many TDs as Forte (6) with only
40% as many touches.
Cincinnati Bengals
Despite two seasons by the Law Firm as a solid fantasy performer and a second straight 1000yard season, the Bengals went out and drafted what many believe was the best RB in this draft
class. This is a situation that has the pundits all over the chart, ranging from BJGE still carrying
the load all the way to the rookie being the workhorse. Realistically, I think it is going to be a
fairly even split among the two for fantasy purposes with each getting about half of the points
available - just by very different means. I suspect that Green-Ellis will remain on the field in early
downs and on the goal line (note this for scoring-heavy leagues), but that the rookie will see a fair
amount of action on 3rd down as well as occasional early carries to keep Green-Ellis fresh. This is
a situation with two good backs and a solid team that will be better in NFL-terms as a result of the
time share...but not-so-appealing for the fantasy owner. FYI, the rookie is generally being drafted
first -- on average as much as two rounds earlier in PPR leagues and by a half round in non-PPRs.
Key stat: BenJarvus Green-Ellis fumbled twice in one September game last season after having
never fumbled in the remainder of his 80 professional games.
Cleveland Browns
This is a backfield with an up-and-coming O-line and a young stud RB; the running game will be
T-Rich and more T-Rich in 2013. So to whom do you latch your handcuff label in Cleveland?
The Browns did move up to grab powerful Montario Hardesty in the 2010 draft, and he possesses
the all-around potential to be a feature back -- if only he could stay healthy…Then again, there is
the same concern for Richardson as he has been continually banged up and is even gimpy in the
offseason. There will be no RBBC if he is healthy, and the Browns' run game is not likely going
to be interesting if he is injured. It is even possible that Chris Ogbannaya could be the handcuff
and backup by the time the season starts. Key stat: Even though they fumbled the ball eight times
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in 2012 (6th worst in the NFL), the Cleveland RBs never lost one, being only one of two NFL
teams without a lost RB fumble.
Dallas Cowboys
DeMarco Murray will certainly be the feature back and a solid RB#2 with RB#1 potential in
2013, but will he be able to play 16 games or anything close to it for the first time as a pro?
Because of Murray's extensive injury history in college and the pros, the handcuff is an important
fantasy tidbit; unfortunately, no one knows who that will be yet; the odds-on favorite to win that
role is rookie Joseph Randle, making him a must-have handcuff as a Murray owner and a decent
late-round flyer otherwise. 3rd year man Philip Tanner got a lot of ink as a sleeper in 2011-12, but
is probably a distant third in the pecking order in Big D. On the whole, this pie will not likely get
split too much with only a healthy Murray being a sure bet to be highly fantasy relevant as the
season kicks off. Key stat: Why replace RBBC member Felix Jones? His YPC dropped from 8.9
to 5.9 to 4.3 to 3.6 over the last four years.
Denver Broncos
Recently released Willis McGahee looked like the best running back on the roster all of last year
and led this RBBC before ending his season on IR; in fact he quietly was #4 in the NFL in fantasy
PPG among RBs through week 8 of last year. Knowshon Moreno may be the most gifted back on
the roster, but he has never shown anything consistently until the playoffs last season. Ronnie
Hillman is running with the first team in the OTAs thus far and could be the feature back if given
the chance, and rookie Montee Ball has been drafted as a fantasy RB#2 or #3 in most drafts thus
far with an ADP of 6.05. What a mess, right? Ball is likely to be the goal line option among the
available backs in Denver, and is worth taking as your RB#3 under any circumstances, and
Hillman makes a good mid-round flier with the upside to be a feature back. In fact, as much as I
love Montee Ball in dynasty formats...I might actually prefer Hillman to be the lead fantasy back
in this RBBC, especially in PPR leagues. I can see Moreno being merely a backup and depth
provider, and probably is not draftable in any league. Key stat: Denver ran the NFL's most
rushing plays inside the opponent 10 yard line in 2012 despite having Peyton Manning lead the
NFL with 24 red zone passing TDs
Detroit Lions
The Lions have finally moved on from Jahvid Best and invested heavily in free agent Reggie
Bush to lead the backfield, and to give it the explosion it has been missing since Barry Sanders
retired. Bush not only becomes the most experienced runner in Detroit, but also is the most
accomplished receiver (outside of Megatron). There is still some depth that looks like it could be
a RBBC, but I would not expect to see as much of it in 2013 unless Bush gets dinged. The only
exception may be that Mikel Leshoure may retain the goal line duties as he has done well in that
capacity, and he may make a solid RB#4 in scoring heavy leagues. Quietly, Joique Bell was the
5th leading receiver (52 catches) and 3rd in receiving yards (485) among all NFL running backs
last year despite playing a very limited role, so he has earned some spot duty to keep Bush fresh
and reduce his touches a little. This offense should take another step forward this year, so there
may be some improved stats in line for the Lions’ backfield in total in 2012, and a healthy Bush
can maximize his value in this partial RBBC. Key stat: Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure combined
to catch 86 passes in 2012, and the team as a whole targeted the RB 144 times with passes.
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Green Bay Packers
The team filled in somewhat by committee all year in 2012 using the departed Ryan Grant, Cedric
Benson and James Starks, FB John Kuhn... even practice squad guy DuJuan Harris was starting
by the postseason! And all were pedestrian at best. The team thought they had filled the bill with
veteran Cedric Benson last year but this offseason bit the bullet and drafted two potential feature
backs that should be able to carry the run game as rookies. Many thought Eddie Lacy was the best
RB in this draft class, and Johnathan Franklin is an underrated performer with a solid history in a
big program. While Lacy will go much higher this year in your fantasy drafts and should have the
first crack at carries, Franklin will likely be the better draft day value as a much later round
selection. A shrewd drafter sitting at the end of a round in a serpentine draft could even take them
both and assure himself the Packers' run game with two middle round picks. Lacy should get
significantly more touches in this RBBC if all works out as planned for Green Bay, but I have a
hunch that come fantasy playoff time Franklin may be the guy you like better on your roster. Key
stat: Aaron Rodgers was the team's second leading rusher last year with 259 yards, and the only
backfield man to average over 4 YPC (4.8).
Houston Texans
As the likely #2 pick in many fantasy leagues, it is safe to say that Arian Foster will open the
season as the starter in Houston and is not slated for much of a time share, even with a minor calf
injury recently. Ben Tate usually sees a lot of garbage time and/or is spelling Foster on occasion,
and nearly ended up with a 1000 yard season himself in 2011, so he is more than a capable back.
Tate is certainly a must-grab handcuff for those that spend their early pick on Arian Foster, but
also makes a solid 7th-8th round pick for any owner looking for RB depth. The Texans' likely
dominance will mean that they will see more chances to run out the clock, and Tate could actually
get a 1000 yard season even without an injury to Foster. While not truly a RBBC since Foster is
definitely "the man" in Houston, there are enough touches and talent here to make two separate
RBs worthy of fantasy starts for your team in larger leagues. Key stat: Houston is the only team to
run the ball more than 500 times in each of the last two seasons.
Indianapolis Colts
The backfield has been in flux in Indianapolis for several years now, but this year there is hope
for optimism for the first time since the days of Edgerrin James. The recent signing of Ahmad
Bradshaw gives the team a bona fide lead back, but his injury history should give the team cause
to limit his touches if at all possible. Some have speculated that bruising 3rd year man Delone
Carter could serve as a goal line back, but that won’t happen unless he improves his ball security.
Last year's leading rusher was rookie Vick Ballard, and his nose for the end zone probably makes
him a more likely goal line back if there is one in Indy, as well as a necessary handcuff to
Bradshaw and the likely #2 in Indy. Donald Brown has singularly failed to grab a hold of his
numerous feature opportunities over the years, and could be a camp casualty with the youth
present on the roster. On the whole, this one looks to be about a 65:35 split in the RBBC, with
Bradshaw being the best bet for fantasy relevance in 2013 as a solid RB#3. Key stat: Tales of woe
- the team did not have a running play longer than 26 yards all season, and Andrew Luck had
nearly as many rushing scores (5) as the entire RB corps combined (6).
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Simply put, there is no RBBC in Jacksonville. The Jaguars made Maurice Jones-Drew one of the
highest paid RBs in the NFL and know how to use him. A conservative system, an every-down
skill set and no real competition for carries makes MJD again one of the safest 3-down back bets
in the fantasy world for 2013, even coming off a Lis-Franc injury in 2012. Justin Forsett will spell
him as needed, and he would be the guy to step in should the workload begin to wear on the
bowling-ballish MoJo. Rookie "offensive weapon" Denard Robinson could get occasional looks
and gimmick plays, but likely is only a fantasy factor with an enlarged role if MJD goes down
again. Key stat: Aside from his injury-shortened season last year, Jones-Drew has averaged over
12 TDs per season for his seven year career, even though he was not a starter until 2009.
Kansas City Chiefs
Like the situation in Jacksonville, this one is also not going to be a RBBC, Jamaal Charles is a
true workhorse stud despite his size, and Andy Reid has already said he will ride his horse early
and often. The fortunate thing for Charles is that he also should see more work in the passing
game. But the key for an RBBC consideration is this: will this workload wear him down, or will
the team use an RBBC to keep him fresh? I do not think they will use other bodies unless Charles
gets dinged or shows signs of slowing, so don't pin your hopes on anyone else getting a lot of
work in this fairly high-octane offense. Rookie Knile Davis is the likely handcuff to Charles, but
is a late round pick at best and there will be no time share here...unless Charles breaks down from
the workload. Key stat: No team has rushed the ball more often that the Kansas City Chiefs over
the last three NFL seasons (1543 carries)
Miami Dolphins
With the departure of leading man Reggie Bush and Pro Bowl LT Jake Long, one could wonder
how the running game will fare in 2013. A sexy pick in many summer drafts has been Lamar
Miller, who has been going as a solid RB#3 so far...and surely will have the first shot at being the
lead horse in this RBBC. The oft-concussed Daniel Thomas is still lurking about and the team has
waited for several years for him to step up and take the reins, so don't be surprised if the hook is
short in the backfield, or if the team simply rides the hot hand. A dark horse is rookie Mike
Gillislee, who may be the best pass blocker among the RBs and this fact alone could earn him at
least spot duty in what is looking to be a more pass-heavy offense than in recent years. I suspect
that Miller easily will be the best bet for fantasy purposes, but that the sharing of the shrinking pie
known as "Dolphins' rushing yards" means that all of these guys will see the ball a little and
therefore likely underperform their draft positions. Key stat: When healthy (weeks 3-12) last
season, Daniel Thomas was evenly splitting touches with Reggie Bush and outperforming him.
Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson had always been one of the few every-down backs in the NFL and he dominated
the touches in Minnesota for the last few years, but his late-season ACL tear in 2011 rendered
him iffy for the season opener, or at least for a full load. And so he simply went out and rushed
for 2100 yards. Uhh...yeah. Don't even think about RBBC or handcuffs here, because if Peterson
goes down, I don't think you will be satisfied with Gerhart's production as compared to the RB#3
already on your roster. Key stat: After they took off the restrictions and let AD play, his last ten
games alone would have made him the NFL's 5th best fantasy RB and still led the NFL in
rushing.
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New England Patriots
This unit quietly scores an awful lot of rushing TDs despite the passing game talent they possess,
leading the NFL with 25 ground scores last year and finishing second with 523 carries. Part of
that was due to the desire to take the risk away by focusing on Tom Brady, but in reality the Pats
have run the ball very well in recent years despite their more noteworthy aerial attack. The run
game still should be “there for the taking” again in 2013, even with serious questions about the
receiving targets. Stevan Ridley has shined more brightly than has Shane Vereen thus far, and he
is in line for another huge year as he comes off a quiet 1263-yard, 12-TD rushing campaign. With
Danny Woodhead having moved on, Vereen as the better pass catching back could also be a
viable spot starter especially in a PPR. Beefy LeGarrette Blount could be the team's most recent
reclamation project and could be a designated goal line hammer if he makes the team, although he
has not excelled in that role in the past. Key stat: Despite Brady's high tendency to throw the ball
in the red zone, the Patriots have finished in the top 7 in rushing TDs every season since 2005
New Orleans Saints
This again will be one of the most interesting RBBCs since this high-octane offense could
legitimately claim two fantasy starters. Despite all the acclaim that the passing game got in the
Superbowl run a few years ago, the rushing attack (6th) actually ranked higher in the NFL that
year than did the passing game (7th)! The Saints collapse last season can primarily be attributed to
the decline of their unheralded 3-headed monster rushing attack. The desire probably is for
youngster Mark Ingram and mighty mite Darren Sproles to share the load with Ingram
predominantly carrying the ball between the tackles and Sproles often splitting out wide.
However, I would not forget about Pierre Thomas (50 catches in 2011) either who has hung
around as a sneaky week-to-week play for several years, and would be fantasy gold if there were
an injury to either Sproles or Ingram; he is also the best bet to outperform his late-round draft
position. Both Sproles and one of the other backs should both be good enough to merit being in
your fantasy lineup week to week, with Ingram/Thomas as a solid RB#3. Sproles in a PPR league
still is a solid RB#2 as he could top 80 catches again in 2013 (he led NFL backs in 2011 and
2012); his potential to return a kick for a score should not be forgotten either. Key stat: The Saints
were the only team in the NFL not to have a RB fumble the ball in 2012.
New York Giants
The G-men are very aware of the fact that they won it all riding a four-headed RBBC in 2007, and
again in 2011 with three major contributors. But lead dog Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on to
Indy, leaving behind only some former RBBC contributors in David Wilson and Andre Brown in
the Meadowlands. David Wilson is another speed guy and will be a seamless replacement for him
on the field if he learns to protect the ball and his franchise QB; he actually is far more electric
than was Bradshaw, so this is a huge step up for the Giants. The "hammer" role will likely fall to
Andre Brown, who makes a sneaky mid-round pickup or a decent RB#3 in a TD-heavy scoring
system. Brown also proved he can be an every down back as he had several good weeks in relief
of an injured Bradshaw in 2012. Wilson should be the starter and certainly will be the better
fantasy contributor, but Giants will continue to significantly split the action in an attempt to keep
these guys healthy in 2013. Key stat: The Giants improved their YPC by 1.2 and gathered in over
400 additional yards on the same number of carries in 2012, just by replacing Brandon Jacobs
with the explosive Wilson in their RBBC.
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New York Jets
Rex Ryan’s team got away from their trend of pounding the rock, finishing in the bottom third of
the NFL in both rushing attempts and yards in 2011, and tried to fix that by running the ball a lot
in 2012. They tried to hand the reins to a new horse (the plodding third-year man, Shonn Greene)
with the result being the most pedestrian 1000 yard season in NFL history. The team went out and
got a more explosive runner in New Orleans RBBC man Chris Ivory, who should be the best ball
carrier for Gang Green; with the number of rushing attempts on the table in Ryan's preferred
offense, he is a player that bears watching, even if splitting time in an RBBC. An ineffective
Ivory could also give way to Bilal Powell, who would be the likely heir should Ivory flame out or
get hurt. Mike Goodson was supposedly signed to be the #2 here, but I think his recent legal woes
may put the kibosh on that plan, and his presence could only muddy the waters further. While
Ivory could be a de facto "feature back," I have my doubts about this situation and I think this
could devolve into a messy RBBC by season's end. Key stat: The Jets averaged only 3.8 YPC as
a team for each of the last two seasons behind an aging offensive line.
Oakland Raiders
The electric Darren McFadden has been compared to the second coming of Gale Sayers...if
McFadden can stay on the field. But oh...that is a huge "IF"! Every fantasy owner has been
burned by this guy, so therefore we all go into season drafting as if there is a RBBC in Oakland,
although nothing could be further from the truth until McFadden gets hurt. While Run DMc
should certainly be a 2nd or 3rd selection in most drafts, his history cannot be forgotten. The sad
part is that there is not a clear handcuff to McFadden for the first time in a long while. FB Marcel
Reese was the guy that ended up as fantasy gold last year for his 52 catches and 3-4 weeks of
solid RB#2 production. Rashad Jennings was signed to be the backup and is a capable starter if
needed, but he also is coming off of an injury. If I had to place my bets on drafting a handcuff, I
would go with Reece as a solid contributor, or rookie Latavius Murray as a guy with boom-orbust potential in that instance. In either case, you would be drafting any of these guys only to be
used if/when McFadden drops. Again. Key stat: Oakland RBs scored the fewest TDs (four) of
any team in the NFL last season.
Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy was finally given the chance to carry the load in Philly with the departure of longtime fantasy stud Brian Westbrook. And boy did he run with it. McCoy is a fantasy stud and
likely will not see his touches curtailed by anything other than another injury. However, the highspeed offense favored by new coach Chip Kelly is actually very run-centered and there should be
a TON of running touches available for sharing. The pace of the offense likely means that there
will be a need to share touches to keep players fresh at all times on the field. For this reason, I like
backups Bryce brown and Felix Jones to each be roster worthy in 12 team leagues, and for Brown
to be the primary handcuff and backup. Brown has a fumbling issue, but his productivity in relief
of McCoy last season cannot be denied. Assuming everyone is healthy, I expect McCoy to be a
solid RB#1 and for Brown to be a decent #3/#4 with spot-start capability. Key stat: For all the
talk about Vick's butterfingers, the RBs led the league with 10 lost fumbles.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The run game devolved into a RBBC last year mostly due to injury as each of the three backs
spent some time on the shelf. The team drafted MSU standout Le'Veon Bell and many pundits are
assuming that he will win the starting job in Pittsburgh. I am not so sure, and even so I can easily
see this one being another RBBC season with no clear-cut talent difference between the three men
in camp. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are each back to take some carries and each has
more experience and more speed than the powerful and plodding Bell. If Bell does get a clear role
early, I can see it being as the goal line hammer - a role that has had fertile fantasy ground in
recent seasons. I am not so sold on Bell being the lead dog in this RBBC and I would be hesitant
to take one in an early fantasy draft...unless you have the capacity and roster space to take all
three of them and let camp sort things out. It would not surprise me if one of Dwyer/Redman is
released as the team signs a veteran feature back (like McGahee, Benson, Turner, etc.) as camp
progresses. Key stat: Redman and Dwyer combined for more fumbles (5) than TDs (4) in 2012.
San Diego Chargers
The common feeling was that Ryan Matthews would build on his solid finish to his rookie season
and would take over as the bell cow in SD, but that is kind of hard when the guy can’t stay off the
trainer’s table. As has been joked, he had more broken collarbones in 2012 than he did TDs -never a good sign. Matthews did split a lot of the receiving action with Ronnie Brown last year,
and the addition of Danny Woodhead to the backfield means that the receptions will likely be
headed his way as he takes on a less-electric "Darren Sproles" role for the Chargers. Woodhead
will probably also be the lone back in many passing situations, so the poor Chargers defense
could mean that he is on the field a lot. Expectations are low for Matthews, but he should get a lot
of the carries if healthy; Woodhead will be the better draft day bargain, especially in PPR leagues
where he could also serve as a solid #3 even if Mathews stays on the field. Key stat: The departed
Jackie Battle scored three of the team's four rushing TDs in 2012.
San Francisco 49ers
Gore should be back among the realm of the stud RBs and could have his fantasy value rise
higher than his draft position if Colin Kaepernick can continue his development and afford a
viable threat in the passing game. Gore is a great runner, top-end receiver and a powerful goal
line runner. He will do it all. Watch for backup Kendall Hunter and the explosive LaMichael
James to battle it out for the primary backup slot and to be worth a late-round selection as a
fantasy handcuff for Gore (but only a slim shot at being fantasy relevant without the inevitable
Gore injury). My money is on James getting enough action as a 3rd down back to make him
worth your while as a late round addition, especially in PPR leagues. Key stat: Gore very quietly
finished in the top 10 in RB fantasy scoring, despite having yet another single-digit TD total.
Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch has become one of the true feature backs in the NFL and does not come off the
field in any situation. However, there are some interesting things afoot in the Emerald City as
Lynch's hard-charging running style makes him susceptible to breakdown. The team has invested
in two young backs in recent drafts, and each could easily step in and perform as well as Lynch if
given the chance, in my opinion. Neither is worth considering as part of an RBBC, but an injury
to the proven Lynch could place the two young bucks in a competition "time share" as they see
who can grab a hold of the job. Watch for rookie Christine Michael to possibly unseat Robert
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Turbin as the backup, and for that guy to be a must-have handcuff to Lynch in the latter parts of
your draft. Key stat: Marshawn Lynch was tied for the league lead with ten 100-yard rushing
games in 2012.
St. Louis Rams
Steven Jackson is gone after eight seasons as the bell cow in St. Louis. And Eric Dickerson and
Marshall Faulk are not walking in that door any time soon. This situation is one that should
eventually resemble a RBBC as there is no one that really is ready and able to carry the load at
RB. The most experience belongs to speedy Darryl Richardson. who most think will be the
starter. Isaiah Pead was touted last year as a good all-around runner, but he showed nothing and
he will be suspended for week 1, putting him a step behind already. Rookie Zac Stacy is a smaller
but more powerful back, and then there is 2nd-year guy Terence Ganaway that is a mauler. The
oldest of these guys is 23, so none have experience or any track record, so it will be a crapshoot.
The smart money is on the limited experience that Richardson has shown, but he is being drafted
much higher than is merited for this situation; the better value may be to roll the dice on Stacy
late in the draft, but none of these guys instill confidence as possible fantasy contributors in 2013.
Could it be that the best fantasy RB for the 2013 Rams is not yet on the roster? Key stat: Steven
Jackson's season average over the last eight seasons (1183 rush yards, 49 receptions) is more than
twice as much as the combined career totals of every RB on the Rams' current roster (combined
527 rush yards, 27 rec.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The arrival of rookie Doug Martin last year was a breath of fresh air atop the fantasy RB
rankings as a new feature back came out of the woodwork right from the start. His every-down
skill set and apparent durability means that there will be no time share or RBBC in Tampa.
Bruising LeGarrette Blount did take some touches away from Martin in 2012, but he is gone and
the newly-signed Peyton Hillis offers only slightly more competition for touches in all phases of
the game -- and aside from Hillis, no other threats exist on the roster right now with just some
other unproven youngsters on the depth chart. There will be no RBBC here that should
significantly alter Martin's position in the top 3 of every fantasy draft. Key stat: No one had a
higher percentage of his team's total rushing yards than did "The Muscle Hamster" in 2012
(79%)
Tennessee Titans
Everyone knows that Chris Johnson has freakish speed, and showed he could be an every down
back and even run the ball inside the tackles and in the red zone. There is no one currently on the
roster that can realistically challenge Johnson for touches anywhere on the field. Yet every
season we seem to hear about the team having another big back that will share time and perhaps
be the goal line back. This year it is former Jet 1000-yard rusher Shonn Greene and former Jaguar
Jalen Parmele - yawn. This is yet another situation where a healthy stud RB will not come off the
field because he is too dangerous. With the commitment to the running game in Tennessee, two
new interior linemen and a viable threat at both QB and WR for the first time in years, either of
these backup guys would be a respectable fantasy starter if Chris Johnson is out of the lineup for
any reason; they could even split time evenly if asked to tote the rock fulltime...but neither should
see much action in 2013 otherwise. Key stat: Chris Johnson received 27 carries in the red zone in
2012
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Washington Redskins
That paragraph I wrote for rookie Doug Martin could easily apply to rookie Alfred Morris in
Washington. There is no one to compete for carries, and he is playing for a coach that will run the
ball a lot. So if there is no RBBC...who is the handcuff? Roy Helu is more talented, but only
seems to be able to last a few games before going down with some nagging injury; my money is
on the dependable (read: boring) Evan Royster, but I would think that Helu would be a better
fantasy performer if called upon to start. Key stat: The Redskins led the NFL with over 2700
rushing yards in 2012, with all but 100 yards coming from rookies.
So there you have it – a glimpse at every situation at RB in the NFL for 2013 – many of which
may involve the sharing of duties in the backfield to some extent. The last few years have
brought many fantasy contributors at RB into the league, and they (along with a few from the
2013 draft) served to add to the logjam at RB in many NFL depth charts. In time many of these
players in RBBCs might evolve into feature backs, but at this time there is a load of chaos - and
thus a lot more options – for the fantasy owner. Try to take into account all the situations and
risks in each city to best assess whether the rumors of a feature back or of a RBBC are more
likely to be true or speculation. Remember, anyone can grab the stud feature back in round 1 of
their fantasy draft – it takes no style or thought. Where you will really make hay is if one can
make some educated guesses on draft day as to which of the guys in a RBBC can have the
biggest impact on your lineup. Hopefully this detailed listing of the potential time-share
situations in the NFL 2013 will help you make those educated guesses on your draft day. Good
luck!
~ end ~
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Get Out the Handcuffs!
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
In the ever-changing landscape of fantasy football, you have to work and re-work philosophies
annually to stay at the top of your game. Years ago drafting a quarterback in the first round was
the norm. The game evolved and it became imperative that a fantasy GM target and lock up a
“stud” running back, a feature back with any first draft selection. Top tiered running backs were
off the board in the first two rounds. The past few campaigns, with the collegiate influence of the
spread offense and the installation of 3-5 wide receiver sets, NFL coaches have gone the creative
(and practical) route regarding the running back, moving away from the traditional workhorse
ball carrier and onto the quick and shifty pass-catching version. Out on the flanks depth and
diversity at wide receiver has also benefitted greatly by the move to dynamic aerial assault
packages installed by pro coaches. Today, in 2013, the first round of a fantasy draft is wide open
and an argument can be made for just about any skill position as a viable number one draft
option. Obviously, the one fantasy football stalwart that has experienced decreasing value is the
feature running back. The majority of pro organizations now employ a committee approach in
the ground game for various reasons. The organizational and performance success of the
committee approach in the backfield has had a ripple effect on other positions as well, such as
wide receiver and even tight end. Identifying the top performer is hard enough in a committee;
setting the order of the reserves is an even cloudier task. The “back-up” running back, or the
traditional “hand-cuff” back has become harder to identify since halfbacks now split carries,
specializing in down-distance situations and rotating on and off the field for pass-protect duties.
The term “starter” in a Sunday lineup carries little weight as to the amount of snaps a back will
see in a contest. The same can be said regarding the wide receiver position. Thanks to the
importing of the “spread” or “pistol” offense, many teams now sport a 1 and 1A receiver within
a 3, 4 or even 5 receiver rotation. There’s also the slot receiver who is often a PPR gem though
he may not be much of a yardage or TD threat. And don’t forget the long-balling speedster
running 7s and 9s downfield and giving fantasy coaches instant offense and points.
The football is truly being shared by many these days. The practice of carrying a particular
running back’s “hand cuff” on a fantasy roster, in case of emergency, requires more thought than
just grabbing “the next guy in line”. With the plethora of pass packages installed and sets of pass
catchers rotating on almost every snap, defining the “guy” who will be the man should the #1
wideout meet with disaster is a matter of study and understanding a team’s offensive philosophy
and offensive coordinator’s tendencies, along with the skills of the entire stable of receivers.
Heck, even the tight ends should be considered as possible “hand cuffs” for certain WRs.
Let’s take an early look at the probable hand cuff situations on each team. There are still a few
clear-cut starters with an immediate reserve waiting in the wings, both at running back and wide
receiver. But many rosters are set up with deep (more than two) multi-talented players that can
make a fantasy football owner proud.
Key:
(R) = rookie
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Buffalo Bills
RB Starter: CJ Spiller; Handcuff: Fred Jackson
WR Starters: Steve Johnson, TJ Graham ; Handcuff: Robert Woods (R)
Buffalo has a new run-first offensive scheme in-place and the backfield roles are reversed from
2012. Spiller is the mercurial playmaker and Fred Jackson assumes the highly qualified
reinforcement job. FJax can do all the things Spiller is capable of, but at a full level below in
speed and explosiveness. Jackson can surely give fantasy footballers a confident bridge over
injured waters should Spiller miss any appreciable time; he brings full service skills.
Robert Woods was drafted as a hedge against the usually nicked-up Steve Johnson. Woods
comes to the Bills more pro-ready than fellow rooks Da’Rick Rogers and Marquise Goodwin,
and has a solid opportunity to actually start opposite Johnson come opening day. Johnson is
slated for the slot, which is where Woods would slide to in the event of a Steve Johnson mishap.
Miami Dolphins
RB Starter: Lamar Miller; Handcuff: Daniel Thomas/Mike Gillislee (R)
WR Starter: Mike Wallace/Brian Hartline; Handcuff: Rishard Matthews
Some fantasy football experts are waving caution flags in front of the prospects of Lamar Miller
gaining the starting gig in Miami. Let’s put that to rest as Miller is well-suited to not only win
the Dolphin feature backfield role but excel as the top in it. Three year veteran Daniel Thomas
will get first shot at handling Miller touches as his replacement, but rookie Mike Gillislee is as
pro-ready as any back in this year’s college draft and is already Thomas’ equal on the field…
heck he’s better right now. Gillislee would surely share the workload with Lamar Miller
sidelined, and his solid all-around play would be hard to keep off the field. Gillislee is the better
long-term ‘cuff for Miller.
Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are pegged as the Miami top wideouts. Miami GM Ireland has
done an excellent job revamping a weak receiving corps, signing Wallace while also adding
Armon Binns, Brandon Gibson and Marvin McNutt. Rishard Matthews quietly figures into the
long-term handcuff here. Matthews goes into camp having already spent a full season working in
the Joe Philbin offense and building familiarity with QB Ryan Tannehill. Miami runs a west
coast scheme and Matthews is a sharp route runner that fits the WCO. He possesses the ability to
play outside, between the hash marks or in the slot, and is a fine after-catch runner.
New England Patriots
RB Starters: Stevan Ridley; Handcuff: Shane Vereen
WR Starter: Danny Amendola; Handcuff: Julian Edelman
Shane Vereen has had a sharp rise in draft popularity since the unfortunate events involving TE
Aaron Hernandez. Vereen is already viewed as a bonafide TOUCH-15 back, which more than
qualifies him as a Ridley handcuff. Vereen is the hands portion of the Patriot backfield, but make
no mistake he can take handoffs and be very effective. Stevan Ridley owners MUST make the
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effort to handcuff with Vereen. His excellent route running and sure hands will go a long way
with a Ridley loss.
The offense is a-changin’ in New England and the receiver unit has gone through a major
makeover. Danny Amendola is a Wes Welker clone (a bit bigger and faster), but an oft-injured
one. The Patriots need to rely on a veteran that knows the program and has the confidence of QB
Tom Brady. There are currently 7 new faces lining up at wideout; Brady knows where to find
Edelman. He is a fearless pass-catcher that is explosive in space and has the get-away gear to
turn in big plays. It would be a seamless transition from Welker to Amendola to Edelman should
the situation present itself.
New York Jets
RB Starter: Chris Ivory; Handcuff: Mike Goodson
WR Starter: Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill; Handcuff: Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates
New York unloaded plodding running back Shonn Greene this off-season and reloaded by
signing former Saints’ reserve Chris Ivory. Ivory is a nice blend of speed and power, and runs
with a reckless abandon. That head-on style often sends Ivory to the sidelines with various
injuries. His handcuff is sure to see game action, and Mike Goodson has proven willing and able
to get the job done. Goodson is a suburb pass receiver out of the backfield and possesses above
average speed. In small samplings while in Carolina Goodson showed he can perform at a high
level. Like Ivory, Goodson also finds it difficult to stay on the field, often nicked up or out for
stretches at a time. But in a limited handcuff type role, Mike Goodson can help fantasy coaches
bridge the Ivory gap.
The Jets’ wide receiver situation is lacking depth and overall pro-level skills. Holmes is always
on the mend and his dedication is quite iffy. Stephen Hill is still has a long way to go toward
being a competent set of hands; he is physically gifted but very unpolished. Whether it’s
performance or injury related, Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley will see plenty of snaps in 2013.
Gates is much like Hill in that he is a fast but rough-around-the-edges wideout. He is mostly just
a one-trick deep threat, and that fills any Stephen Hill lapses. Kerely is arguably New York’s
most complete wide receiver. Kerley is best suited as a slot receiver, but has shown to be
efficient in any role the Jets’ coaches have thrust upon him. Kerely is surely NOT a sexy fantasy
choice, but will probably be New York’s top receiver even without a starting role. Handcuffing a
Jet wideout is a futile expenditure of energy, but in a PPR environment, Kerely is a decent
option.
Baltimore Ravens
RB Starter: Ray Rice; Handcuff: Bernard Pierce
WR Starter: Torrey Smith/Jacoby Jones; Handcuff: Tandon Doss, Dennis Pitta (TE)
The Ray Rice/ Bernard Pierce duo is one of the most defined handcuff scenarios in the game for
2013. The consistent talk out of Baltimore is that Pierce is going to actually cut in on Rice’s
workload by design. The former Temple star is a rugged, downhill rusher with power and a nose
for the goal line. Pierce doesn’t offer a whole lot in the passing game, and surely doesn’t come
close to matching Rice’s receiving skills, but he is a TD threat inside the 10 yard line. The
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Ravens are planning on going more up-tempo this season, and that usually translates to more
snaps and more plays on offense. There may be enough footballs going around to elevate Pierce
to a FLEX role in fantasy. Regardless, he is a pure handcuff for Ray Rice and a must get for Rice
owners.
After allowing Anquan Boldin to walk Baltimore did little to fill the vacancy from the outside.
Boldin’s move to ‘Frisco opened the full-time door for Jacoby Jones, but Jones has shaky hands
and is a poor route runner who has butter-fingered his way OUT of starting chances before. It is
time for Tandon Doss, a sure-handed and savvy route runner, to step up and become a viable
option for QB Joe Flacco. Doss steps into a heavy snap count should Torrey Smith miss action
due to injury time or Jones again fails to impress with expanded snaps. He is best framed to
inherit Boldin’s route tree. It is now or never for Tandon Doss, and handcuff in Baltimore’s
receiving corps. Dennis Pitta is a creative way of handcuffing in the Ravens wideout situation. If
your league combines wide receivers and tight ends as one position, Pitta makes for an excellent
‘cuff for any Baltimore starting pass catcher. Pitta is already slated to pick up much of Boldin’s
inside routes and will even lineup outside in some formations. League rules permitting, it makes
sense to think outside the box and set up a handcuff with a player most likely to lead a team in
targets. Dennis Pitta is a sharp alternative as a Raven wideout handcuff.
Cincinnati Bengals
RB Starter: Benjarvus Green-Ellis; Handcuff: Giovani Bernard (R)
WR Starter: AJ Green; Handcuff: Marvin Jones
Cincy’s Benjarvus Green-Ellis sadly doesn’t receive the praise and respect he deserves because
he is a throw-back, old time thumper. BJGE gives everything he has on every take of the
football. Unfortunately he lacks the flash and dash required of today’s NFL tailbacks. GreenEllis has topped 1000 yards rushing in two of his last three seasons and banged out 30 scores in
the process. Problem is he does little in the passing game and he gained those ground yards at
just barely 4 a carry. Enter rookie Giovani Bernard, a fleet rusher and smooth pass catcher with
an accomplished college resume. OC Jay Gruden has mentioned that Bernard is more than just a
change of pace back, able to carry the full bag of mail as a pro. Green-Ellis is still the two-down
banging starter for now, but a few more runs with 30 yard potential finishing at four yards by
BJGE and Giovani Bernard gets to prove Gruden right or wrong. Bernard is a solid handcuff;
clear and clean and ready to show.
Marvin Jones showed a little of his potential as a rookie last season. He got his starts when
fellow freshman wide receiver WR Mohamed Sanu went down with an injury. Sanu had
“won” his starting gig early on when Jones was down for the count. While Sanu is projected as a
starter and it would seem he would benefit most by an AJ Green mishap, JNES IS THE Bengal
wideout to cuff with the marvelous Green. Sanu can’t come close to running the 9, 7 and 8 routes
(deep routes) the way AJ Green does; Jones can. And the fact that he is a youngster shouldn’t
carry that much weight with the Bengal brass… AJ Green lit it up as a rook, Sanu was a
freshman starter in 2012 as was Jones. If Green is your receiver of color, seek out Marvin Jones
and cuff ‘em.
Cleveland Browns
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RB Starter: Trent Richardson; Handcuff: not on the roster
WR Starter: Josh Gordon; Handcuff: Travis Benjamin
Trent Richardson gave his fanball owners plenty of practice in handcuffing last season as he
battled through a plethora of injuries. Problem in Cleveland is the current stable of backs behind
T-Rich are quite unimpressive and hardly ones to count on should Richardson go down.
Montario Hardesty always seems to be coming back from injury himself, and Brandon
Jackson (also a red-cross wearer) wasn’t all that impressive when healthy. Then there’s Dion
Lewis or Chris Ogbonnaya… nuff said! Looking for a ‘cuff for Richardson, seek your answer
from another team.
As shallow as the Browns’ running back stable appears to be, the wide receiver corps efforts to
rival the backfield for lack of depth. It is a young group, led by Josh Gordon (suspended for
games 1 and 2) and Greg Little. All eyes are on Travis Benjamin to pick up the deep ball slack
for Gordon whiles he serves his 2-gamer. Benjamin is fast but small. Devone Bess is pure slot
material, so Benjamin would be the one wideout to utilize as a cuff in Cleveland for WR
purposes. With Coach Chudzinski and OC Norv Turner in charge, the football should be heading
downfield more often, matching the strengths of QB Brandon Weeded and Benjamin. It’s not
pretty, but there is some potential for a big play or two if/when Travis Benjamin is getting
regular reps.
Pittsburgh Steelers
RB Starter: LeVeon Bell (R); Handcuff: Isaac Redman
WR Starter: Antonio Brown; Handcuff: Jerricho Cotchery
Rookie LeVeon Bell is practically being handed the starter gig in Pittsburgh. Bell is a big back
with average speed and decent hands. The closest reserve the Steelers have on the roster that
could semi-fill those skills without Bell is holdover Isaac Redman. Redman is a plodding runner
that can be a chain-mover as a receiver out of the backfield. However he lacks vision and any
sense of elusiveness and would need a high volume of touches to be fantasy relevant.
It may be prudent to grab Emmanuel Sanders as Antonio Brown’s handcuff if you can manage it
and Sanders falls deep into the draft. However, should that scenario work out, Jerricho Cotchery
is next man up in Pittsburgh. Cotchery is a very limited slot receiver with little breakaway
ability. Pitt OC Todd Haley’s dink-n-dunk play calling wouldn’t hurt Cotchery if forced into
fulltime service. Rookie Markus Wheaton is an option, but he missed all of the off-season
programs thanks to an Oregon State late graduating class, and Wheaton is far behind in playbook
recognition. In a strict PPR value, Jerricho Cotchery is the Steeler WR handcuff (for now).
Houston Texans
RB Starter: Arian Foster; Handcuff: Ben Tate (and a heads-up on rookie Dennis Johnson)
WR Starter: Andre Johnson; Handcuff: DeAndre Hopkins (R)
Here’s an easy ne for fantasy footballers to identify; Ben Tate is THEE guy to grab if Arian
foster is on your roster. End of story! Tate has teased in small samplings of his work, and Foster
has loads of miles on his wheels. The workhorse back looked “worked” at times last season…
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Ben Tate needs to be behind YOUR Arian Foster; make it your mission to nab Tate before other
owners “hold you hostage”. For those who like rolling the dice, undrafted rookie tailback Dennis
Johnson is an exciting hidden gem.
Finally! The Texans took the plunge and drafted a wideout capable of supporting star Andre
Johnson as well as potentially become his successor. DeAndre Hopkins is now lining up
opposite Andre Johnson as the starter, and he makes for a super handcuff to AJ this season; right
now! Houston’s HC Gary Kubiak has talked up Lestar Jean, DeVier Posey and Keshawn
Martin. Posey has maturity issues and Martin lacks size and is more of a slot receiver. Hopkins
is a polished route runner, sure handed and a redzone demon. AJ just looks like a star on the
down-tick, regardless of the 100 catch 2012, and Johnson surely hasn’t been the paragon of
health over the years.
Indianapolis Colts
RB Starter: Ahmad Bradshaw; Handcuff: Vick Ballard
Vick Ballard wastes little time getting his pads turned up-field and contributes out of the
backfield. He gained valuable starting experience last season, and with the brittle-footed Ahmad
Bradshaw the only thing standing between Ballard and 300+ touches, The Indy sophomore back
is a solid handcuff for Bradshaw. QB Andrew Luck was quick to mention Ballard’s name when
asked what players need to get the ball more. Just sayin’.
WR Starter: Reggie Wayne; Handcuff: Darrius Heyward-Bey
The savvy veteran Wayne was moved all over the formations last season and his catch total was
impressive; his TDs not so much. Indy coaches are intrigued with DHB and his size/speed
package. He brings a lot of Pierre Garcon back to the lineup, and has skills that Donnie Avery
provided last year but with size. He still has hands issues, but so did Avery last season. Without
Wayne on the field the Colts’ coaches need to get playmaking ability jump-started; Darrius
Heyward-Bey can bring solid run-after-catch ability, like Garcon, and finally plays with a true
NFL star caliber QB in Andrew Luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars
RB Starter: Maurice Jones-Drew; Handcuff: Justin Forsett
WR Starter: Justin Blackmon (suspended), Cecil ShortsIII;
Shipley/Denard Robinson (R)
Handcuff:
Jordan
In many ways Justin Forsett can be likened to a poor-man’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Lately, MJD
can be compared to a poor man’s MJD, too. Forsett has gotten the job done when called upon
both in Houston and Seattle. Banking on any Jacksonville players in 2013 is a very risky
proposition. Having to rely on a Jaguar understudy as a fantasy football fallback plan is throwing
money into the fire.
The Jags passing offense, challenged as it is, starts the year with one of the few weapons on the
roster suspended, with Blackmon gone for four games. Cecil Shorts is a fine receiver, a sharp
route runner with underrated after-catch ability and sticky hands that excels inside the hash
marks but can take to the flanks if called upon. Looking to help out in the slot and as a stand-in
at receiver is Former Bengal Jordan Shipley. Shipley has already made a bit of a mark as a pro,
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hauling in 52 footballs back in 2010, his rookie campaign. Shipley is not fast, but offers a decent
target from the slot (6’-190) and finds open seams in the middle of the field. Ship adds up to a
better PPR option should his handcuff status rise to full-time player.
WILDCARD: Rookie “athlete” Denard Robinson might actually be the best handcuff for either
Jones-Drew or one of the receivers. Robinson is a supremely gifted athlete, having been a
starting collegiate QB at Michigan and a dual-threat to run or pass. Robinson is track-star fast
and elusive. The Jags are conjuring up creative ways to utilize his abundant athletic ability by
not pegging him in a particular position; they like listing Robinson as ATH (athlete). Should
MJD, Blackmon or Shorts make their way to the sidelines for extended periods of time, it is a
fair bet that new Coach Gus Bradley would want to get the “athlete” Robinson on the field and
the football in his hands, any way possible. Eyes on Denard Robinson and his usage in the preseason.
Tennessee Titans
RB Starter: Chris Johnson; Handcuff: Shonn Greene (and eyes on Darius Reynaud)
WR Starter: Kenny Britt; Handcuff: Nate Washington
Don’t allow the signing of former NY Jet starting running back Shonn Greene spook you off
Chris Johnson (if you have eyes for the moody Titan halfback). The former CJ2K (I hate that!) is
‘the man’ in Tennessee as far as first team snaps and touches. Greene is the anti-change-of-pace
back and the occasional goal line crasher. Johnson’s ability to house it from anywhere on the
field makes him too valuable on an offense that needs playmakers. However, Greene would be
the go-to rusher in a Chris Johnson crisis, and he’d do an OK job. Greene runs behind a line that
can run-block, and his between the tackles style fits well.
Darius Reynaud is a deep thinker’s option here. Reynaud is a converted college wide receiver
from West Virginia that can get after it with speed. Reynaud returned three kicks/punts for TDs
last season, and could very well see pass-down snaps if Shonn Greene is suddenly the starting
runner in the offense. If forced into regular action, chances are Reynaud wouldn’t need many
touches to put up instant-offense fantasy stats and points.
Kenny Britt is working to shed his Kenny Britt-le label. The talented (and troubled) wideout has
famously struggled to stay on the field, prompting the Titans to invest in a potential playmaker
like Kendall Wright. Wright has secured a starting spot opposite Britt, moving veteran Nate
Washington to a supporting role. Washington has been somewhat of a playmaker himself, and
surely has the chops to handle a full route tree if Britt’s health or behavior comes crashing down
again. Nate Washington is first off the bench for the Titans in an emergency, and a fine fantasy
option in the handcuff role.
Denver Broncos
RB Starter: Monte Ball (R); Handcuff: Ronnie Hillman (Knowshon Moreno)
WR Starters: Eric Decker/Demaryius Thomas; Handcuff: Wes Welker
To start training camp sophomore tailback Ronnie Hillman is listed top of the depth chart. Given
time for rookie Monte Ball to show his wares, and Hillman’s lack of ability to pass protect, that
situation will change and Hillman will fall to handcuff status before opening day. Hillman is a
fast and shifty runner with good pass receiving skills but light on his feet… too light so far. He is
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easily knocked off his pins and shows little power. Ball is the stronger runner and should get the
first team calls; Hillman offers a stop-gap option for fantasy players. With a Ball injury,
Knowshon Moreno would most likely be the long-term option. The problem with Moreno is he
cannot remain healthy through an expanded role in the running game. Moreno gives his QB
more confidence as he can pass block, catch footballs well enough and run tough.
Funny as it looks, Wes Welker is the ultimate handcuff this season. Tall and talented tandem
pass catchers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are the top two Manning options and will
dominate snaps and targets. However, both have exhibited clear evidence of being a bit fragile in
their young careers, and a trip to the trainer’s room by either would catapult Welker to top-5
fantasy receiver status. Welker is likely to be drafted too high to warrant being utilized as a
handcuff for Thomas or Decker, but if the Slot Machine drops in drafts, best to move him up a
round or two and cover your Bronco wideout butt.
Kansas City Chiefs
RB Starter: Jamaal Charles; Handcuff: Cyrus Gray/Knile Davis (R)
WR Starter: Dwayne Bowe; Handcuff: Donnie Avery
The chiefs will be looking hard and long for Jamal Charles backup this training camp. The new
regime led by GM Dorsey and Coach Reid selected RB Knile Davis in this year’s draft. Because
he is a product of the new staff, Davis will get every chance to rise up the depth charts. However,
second year rusher Cyrus Gray actually has the set of skills that fit the coach Reid requirements
for running backs. Gray has above average speed, is a very good pass receiver, played in an uptempo offense in college and also runs with good vision and footwork. Neither Davis nor Gray
has proven to be overly durable in college, but Gray returned to action quickly and without a loss
of performance quality. Davis has yet to show a return to pre-injury form, running tentatively
and without conviction. In a camp battle, look for Cyrus Gray to shine in the Coach Reid new
WCO-Pistol scheme and become a viable Jamal Charles handcuff for 2013.
Dwayne Bowe is the big dawg in the KC receiving pound. The player to grab as a plan-B tool in
case of emergency is Donnie Avery. Jon Baldwin might seem to be the logical choice here, given
his size similarity to Bowe, but Avery was hand-picked by Coach Reid to come on board and
join the club. Coach Reid and GM Dorsey see a value in the former Ram/Colt receiver. Avery is
fast but brings inconsistent hands and has a rather extensive injury track record. Last season was
a breakout campaign of sorts for Avery, playing with Andrew Luck while sharing the football
with Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton. He finds himself in a similar situation at Kansas City. He’d
likely lead the team in catches if a Bowe boo-boo happened.
Oakland Raiders
RB Starter: Darren McFadden; Handcuff: Latavius Murray (R)
WR Starter: Denarius Moore; Handcuff: Rod Streater
The Raiders needed to find a stand-in or RB Darren McFadden and may have found a rough-cut
gem in rookie Latavius Murray. Murray is a taller styled halfback like McFadden (6’3 to DMC’s
6’1). The former Central Florida star is straight-line fast, cashing in his 4- time at a consistent
4.39 clip. Like McFadden, Murray is adept at catching the football out of the backfield and can
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run deeper patterns, but is at this best taking a swing or screen and getting north. Yes, ex-Jaguar
Rashad Jennings is in the Raider fold but he lacks the potential explosiveness of Murray, who
scored 19 TDs last year at UCF and averaged 5.4 a carry for his college career. Don’t let his 6th
round draft pedigree get in the way, this is a fine handcuff for the always injured Darren
McFadden.
Denarius Moore is a lot like Darren McFadden in that he is fast, a playmaker and a frequent flyer
on the injury reports. Much is expected of Moore this season, viewed as Oakland’s WR1. A
surprise performer for the Raiders last season at wideout was then-rookie Rod Streater.
Undrafted in 2012, Streater walked on at Oakland and found his way to 39 receptions and 3 TDs.
His 6’2 frame gives probable Raider QB Matt Flynn a visible target, and it is his size and onfield work that prompted the Raider to let another size-receiver walk, Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Streater is a solid 4.5 guy but plays fast with the football in his hands. He’s not a pure handscatcher, using his body too often to bring the ball in but seems to pull it off well enough. With a
Moore mishap, Rod Streater bolts to an Oakland first look from Flynn, and makes an excellent
handcuff.
San Diego Chargers
RB Starter: Ryan Mathews; Handcuff: Danny Woodhead
WR Starters: Danario Alexander; Handcuff: Vincent Brown
Disappointing RB Ryan Mathews has a nicked up history and an inconsistent pro record thus far.
His understudy stands a good chance of seeing quality time due to injury or performance issues.
A common characteristic of the Charger running backs is that they all catch the football.
Between Mathews, Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead (in NE last season), the current top 3
San Diego backs combined for 128 receptions in 2012. Danny Woodhead was brought in as a
free agent by the new coaching staff, led by Mike McCoy. There’s a reason… and Woodhead
will be utilized if Mathews fails to impress. Ronnie Brown is still in the mix, but when a new
boss brings in his own players, they will play when opportunity appears.
One thing you can say about the San Diego top receivers… they are injury prone. Danario
Alexander made it through an abbreviated season for him healthy but has 5 knee operations in
the bag. Malcom Floyd always ends up with some malady in the season and Vincent Brown is
coming back from a 2012 pre-season broken ankle. The Chargers were hasty in placing Brown
on season-ending IR last season as he seemed to be ready to go later in the year. Well, he’s ready
now. Brown is a sure-fire handcuff for either Alexander or Floyd. While not as big as those two
wideouts, Brown does hit the 6’ mark and is a crisp route runner with quality hands. The 2011
3rd round choice is an excellent sleeper selection this year, let alone a solid handcuff.
Dallas Cowboys
RB Starter: DeMarco Murray; Handcuff: Joseph Randle (R)
WR Starter: Dez Bryant; Handcuff; Dwayne Harris
Cowboys’ tailback DeMarco Murray and injury report seem to go hand-in-hand. Dating back to
his college days, Murray is an injury waiting to happen. Dallas let another injury prone back
walk this off-season, Felix Jones and replaced him with 2013-5th round pick Joseph Randle.
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Randle is a versatile back that can take a handoff or catch out of the backfield. The former
Oklahoma State tailback rolled out 1,417 ground yards and 14 touchdowns last season and 1,216
yards and 24 touchdowns in 2011. He surely has a nose for the endzone. Randle started 31 of 39
games in college, and hauled in 108 passes for 917 yards and three touchdowns in three years
there. The Dallas rookie is built lean but has added some muscle in prep for the pro game. He’ll
need to learn to lower the pads better in the NFL; running upright leads to visits on the trainer’s
table, but he is sudden, hits his holes with speed and will break first contact. Owner Jerry Jones
has eyes for Randle and he is next man up behind the fragile DeMarco Murray
Dallas wideout Dez Bryant has arrived. WR2 Miles Austin also is talented but very fragile. The
WR3 carries an important role in the Cowboy passing game, and could be thrust into a bigger
role with Austin’s sensitive hamstrings always acting up. Dwayne Harris is a solidly built (5’10205) 6th rounder from the 2011 draft that has a chance to unseat Austin this season as a starter
opposite Bryant. While at East Carolina, Harris set the school record for receiving yards and
catches in a season (2010- 1,123 receiving yards and 101 receptions). He possesses average
wideout speed (4.5x40) but plays fast with the ball in his hands and has a running back
mentality, displaying excellent vision and balance. He’s tough to tackle once in the second level
of the defense. Already a fine kick and punt returner, Harris makes a terrific Cowboy receiving
handcuff given the lack of depth and the fragility of Miles Austin.
New York Giants
RB Starter: David Wilson; Handcuff: Andre Brown
WR Starter: Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz; Handcuff: Rueben Randle
David Wilson, explosive but inconsistent starter… Andre Brown, goal-liner with above average
running back skills. A pure handcuff situation here for the Giant backfield where Andre brown
doubles as a TD thief. Brown is a nice blend of size (6-225) and speed (4.37 official 40-time at
2009 Combine) and will run behind one the leagues most underrated o-lines again this season.
The former North Carolina tailback was excelling in his share-time work and goal line duties
until a broken leg ended the potential double-digit TD campaign. Brown is no stranger to the
injury come-back, having battled through a couple of fractured foot events his last year in
college. There’s no doubt of his capability in a limited but fantasy productive role as TD back
and third down participant. As well as being Wilson’s direct handcuff Andre Brown is expected
to see his share of carries, pushing his cuff value up a level in the FLEX tier.
Victor Cruz is signed on the dotted line, but still not thrilled with what he “settled” for. Hakeem
Nicks wants his share, too. The Giant starting wideouts are set with talent and production, but
they are far from a content bunch. Cruz openly suggests he took a home team discounted
contract and it doesn’t sit quite right with him. Nicks is famously nicks-ed up often during the
course of a schedule. Sitting quietly (for now) behind the scenes is the big talent of Rueben
Randle. Randle is a fantasy friendly blend of size, speed and readiness, having played a mature
brand of football while at LSU. In a small production sample from last season, Randle turned a
mere 19 receptions into 298 yards (15.7 YPR) and three TDs. 12 of those receptions and the 3
TDs came in the 5 games Nicks sat out. Randle was chosen in the 2nd round of last year’s draft
with plans of being a hedge against a Cruz contract confrontation and a quality fill-in if/when
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Hakeem Nicks meets up with another ailment. Standing 6’3- 210 and running a crisp 4.5x40,
Randle is a solid hands catcher and a stone-cold cuff-lock for either New York wideout.
Philadelphia Eagles
RB Starter: LeSean McCoy; Handcuff: Bryce Brown
WR Starters: DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin; Handcuff: Arrelious Benn
It could be said that LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown are RB1 and RB1-A for the Eagles
offense and new head coach Chip Kelly. Contrary to popular perception, Coach Kelly is a runfirst play caller… a creative run-first play caller, but still he’s run-first. His up-tempo demands (a
snap of the football every 20-24 seconds) translates into more plays from scrimmage, meaning
more touches for BOTH Eagle backs. No Doubt McCoy is the lead bird, and the fact that Brown
will see a healthy share of the touches anyway makes him a top-3 handcuff for 2013. Bryce
Brown is already a solid FLEX choice. Brown is big and extremely fast, but must learn to refrain
from bouncing every carry to the flanks. He will… CUFF HIM; CUFF HIM NOW!
Coach Kelly has been smitten with the skills and work of former Buccaneer Arrelious Benn.
Rarely has Kelly missed an opportunity to mention Benn’s name when shaping up the offense
and the passing options. Benn has truly struggled with injury in his short career, Benn is a
football player, period. He contributes on offense, in the return game and on special team cover
units. On offense, he brings good size (6’1) and blocking ability, with average game speed.
Before injury Benn was versatile and effective running reverses, bubble screens as well as
getting deep behind secondaries. In Philly, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are 1 and 2, but
both have dealt with their own health miseries. Listening to Coach Kelly, Arrelious Benn
benefits most from time missed by either Jackson or Maclin. In a short window of action, Benn
can be fantasy effective.
Washington Redskins
RB Starter: Alfred Morris; Handcuff: Roy Helu
WR Starter: Pierre Garcon; Handcuff: Leonard Hankerson
Coach Shanahan finds another RB out of nowhere… same old story. Alfred Morris, projected as
a full back at last year’s draft ends up a 6th round, 1600 yard rusher for Coach Shanahan. History
shows that Shanny tends to run his backs into oblivion and fearlessly practices “next man up”
philosophy to the letter. The Redskin backfield is chocked full of possibilities, but none seem to
possess any special qualities… except Roy Helu. Helu is a speed halfback with excellent pass
catching ability and a breakaway gear. No other Washington mail carrier can say that. Helu has
been missed time with an assortment of woes, but so far has been cleared for duty and has been
seen running well and making cuts. If he can make it through training camp in one piece, Roy
Helu should out-play his mates and give Coach Shanahan another quality “next man”.
Pierre Garcon plays all-out football and it often leads to him nursing some sort of ding. His is
coming off a broken foot and shoulder woes from last season, so there is a health watch here.
Waiting in the wings and slowly but steadily making progress is Leonard Hankerson. The big
wideout from the U has flashed, but needs to learn how to be a pro and practice like one. He is in
that renowned third year zone, the season when WRs “get it”. Hankerson is the best physical
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wideout on the Washington roster, and his size/speed combo could explode if he see consistent
snaps. Eyes on training camp here… he could be a good one, and surely is a fix for a Pierre
Garcon trip to the sidelines.
Chicago Bears
RB Starter: Matt Forte; Handcuff: Michael Bush
WR Starter: Brandon Marshall; Handcuff: Earl Bennett
Bears RB Matt Forte is anxious to get it going under new head coach Marc Trestman. Trestman
is yakking it up hard about Forte’s role in the new offense. It would appear Matt Forte is in for a
career high for touches. Better prep for some wear-n-tear on the Bear back by tabbing Michael
Bush as his direct handcuff. Bush has made a career out of being a fantasy cuff, first backing up
fragile Darren McFadden in Oakland and now chipping in when Forte needs a break, or suffers
one. Bush does seem to be losing some of his burst, but he is solid inside the 10 yard line and a
capable safety valve receiver. The big, burly Bear back is a perfect stand-in for Matt Forte
owners.
Bears passer Jay Cutler likes working with players he’s familiar with. In Chicago he has two
receivers that he has had a long working relationship with; Brandon Marshall and Earl Bennett.
Bennett directly fills in if Marshall is out. Cutler’s college target would jump into the Marshall
role and Cutler knows how to find the former Vandy wideout. If you want to continue at least
getting the PPR value Marshall brings, then tab Earl Bennett in case of emergency. Marshall
runs more of the inside patterns, and Bennett would fit right in if Marshall were to go down.
Handcuff Marshall with Earl Bennett.
Detroit Lions
RB Starter: Reggie Bush; Handcuff: Joique Bell
WR Starter: Calvin Johnson; Handcuff: Nate Burleson
Word is that Mikel Leshoure isn’t wowing the Lion coaches these days. Leshoure is what he is, a
short yardage plodder with some goal line chops. Undrafted Joique Bell surprised everyone,
even his Detroit coaches, by excelling is a change-of-pace role and becoming a playmaking pass
receiver out of the backfield. Bell is getting the chance to be Reggie Bush’s sidekick, as both
possess similar skills; Bell isn’t as fast as Bush, but he can snag the rock with the best of them.
In fantasy football terms, Bell has more potential to provide points with less touches; quality
production. Joique Bell is suddenly a fantasy “want” and Reggie Bush owners need to make the
effort to ring up Bell.
No one can really fill the Mega-shoes of Calvin Johnson in Detroit. But in the NFL’s most passhappy offense, a handcuff to the top WR is a must. Gone is deep threat (and mental threat) Titus
Young. Returning from injury is veteran Nate Burleson. Burleson fills the short passing lanes
well, and a loss of Calvin Johnson would create a huge void in the deep attack. With Young gone
and only Ryan Broyles (slot man) the only other WR of quality on the roster, Nate Burleson
would get to line up outside and run the Megatron routes. Burleson has QB Matt Stafford’s trust,
and Stafford is a quirky passer that needs to feel good about where he is throwing the football
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and who he is tossing it to. He has good vibes with Burleson and the targets would be plentiful
given the opportunity. Cuff Calvin Johnson with the savvy play of Nate Burleson.
Green Bay Packers
RB Starter: Eddie Lacy (R), Johnathan Franklin (R); Handcuff: Alex Green
WR Starters: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb; Handcuff: James Jones
Last season I asked the question regarding the Packer running back stable, “Is there such a thing
as HCBC; Hand Cuff By Committee”? One again, the answer is … In Green Bay, could be.
Even the lead role is foggy at this time. The Pack spent quality draft picks this off-season on top
halfbacks Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Still on board is 2011 third round pick Alex
Green, who is finally back to health after rushing to return from knee surgery. Late season
rushing star Dujaun Harris and the failed James Starks are also hanging on. This is a wait and see
situation, as someone needs to take the lead and some must go; the backfield is far too crowded
at Lambeau. Most likely one of either Lacy or Franklin will win out, and the second place
finisher becomes the handcuff. Keep an eye on Alex Green; word is the Pack bosses are
shopping him. Green would be an excellent fit is several offenses around the league and at worst
would be a sharp looking handcuff to a lead tailback.
Green Bay is blessed with three top-flight wide receivers. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson
continue to be ranked as the starters, with James Jones being a star third wheel. Jones found a
way to lead the NFL in TD receptions last season and is a must have handcuff for Cobb OR
Nelson owners. No need to get technical here… Aaron Rodgers is the passer and the offense if
explosive through the air. James Jones… CUFF ‘EM!
Minnesota Vikings
RB Starter: Adrian Peterson; Handcuff: Toby Gerhart
WR Starter: Greg Jennings; Handcuff: Jarius Wright
Calvin Johnson may be Megatron, but Adrian Peterson is just plain Super, man! What the heck
was that last season? Anyway, AP’s 2012 heroics may be hard to maintain in 2013, given the
heavy workload and the energy spent getting ready for the season. In 2011, when Peterson went
down, Toby Gerhart was excellent filling in, especially in the redzone. Gerhart is a clear-cut cuff
for Peterson owners. Oh! He’s nowhere near Adrian Peterson as a running back, but he bring sis
own qualities that can be quite fantasy friendly. He catches extremely well and gains chunks of
yards after the catch. And, he knows where the stripe is. Toby Gerhart… CUFF ‘EM Peterson
owners!
The Vikings’ top receiver Percy Harvin, is now their ex-receiver. Harvin now flies with the
Seahawks. New in town is former Packer star Greg Jennings. Jennings is a savvy vet but an oftinjured one it would be smart of owners who call upon Jennings’ services to “buy” some
insurance to CYA. A player that the Minnesota coaches have quietly praised this off-season,
which is a complete 180 from last season, has been sophomore wideout Jarius Wright. Wright is
an underrated slot receiver from Arkansas, possessing 4.42 x 40 speed. Some felt that drafting
the Razorback record-setter gave the Minnesota management some leverage in dealing with
Harvin. Now is his chance to payoff. Wright does bring some Harvin-like ability to the field and
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fills a void should Greg Jennings again deal with nagging groin and other ailments. Wright is
one to lock up in Minnesota.
Atlanta Falcons
RB Starter: Steven Jackson; Handcuff: Jacquizz Rodgers
WR Starters: Julio Jones/Roddy White; Handcuff: Harry Douglas
Really? Steven Jackson? This already potent offense just got a shot of pure veteran dedication
and warrior attitude. Jackson still has some gas left in the tank for one more hurrah. But the
clock is ticking and as far as running backs go, he’s now on borrowed time. The Falcons have
had shifty and versatile Jacquizz Rodgers in the nest for a couple of seasons now, and he is well
versed in the offense. Rodgers IS Steven Jackson on a smaller (much smaller) scale. He can
carry the rock, get to the flanks on screens and be an all-around producer. Rodgers doesn’t
possess breakaway speed but in an offense that now forces defenses to spread out and respect
wideouts Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez, all he needs is to hit the open
lanes and get what is in front of him, which at times is a lot of open field. Atlanta doesn’t have
much depth in the backfield, so Rodgers is the clear handcuff to Steven Jackson.
Harry Douglas is a 5th year vet that has had a few shining moments. But Douglas has been a bit
inconsistent when opportunity was there. He is a leaner target than Jones or White and has been
used mostly on deep routes. The coaches still like Douglas, fell confident with his skills and he
has the potential to be a fantasy star-in-relief with a loss of Julio Jones or Roddy White. The
offense just plays that way and is almost a perfect machine on paper right now. Harry Douglas is
the only name on the Falcon bench to call when cuffing Julio Jones or Roddy White. Do it!
Carolina Panthers
Starters: DeAngelo Williams/ Jonathan Stewart; Handcuff: DeAngelo Williams/ Jonathan
Stewart (Kenyon Barner (R)).
Every year it is the same thing; that backs up who in Carolina. Both Jonathan Stewart and
DeAngelo Williams mostly cancel each other out in fantasy drafts, it is almost impossible to use
one as the handcuff for the other unless an owner makes a concentrated effort to go back-to-back
with Williams and Stewart. Currently Stewart is struggling in his rehab of dual ankle surgeries.
Still, fanballers value Stewart over Williams in ADP this off-season. Forward thinking is to look
down to the RB3 on the Panthers roster, which most likely is rookie tailback Kenyon Barner.
Barner is a confident shifty rusher that is built small but runs with conviction. He is an excellent
pass receiver and would be a touch magnet is forced into action. There’s no telling how long
Stewart will last on the field once he does return, so Williams is a fine cuff if you gamble on
Stewart. But a good planner might want to bank of Kenyon Barner making waves and taking
advantage of an opportunity, given his pass catching advantage.
WR Starter: Steve Smith; Handcuff: Domenik Hixon/ Kealoha Pilares
Brandon LaFell looked primed to breakout in 2012, his third year as a pro. However, Brandon
La-fell flat in that effort and was more of the same; inconsistent and at times invisible. QB Cam
Newton also missed opportunities to get Lafell the football when it was there; poor reads. None
of the other Panther receivers inspire or excite fantasy owners to lock up behind rigged Steve
Smith. Ted Ginn, David Gettis, Armanti Edwards, Joe Adams? Ok, how about Domenik Hixon?
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Hixon has flashed for the Giants on occasion, and was a draft day target once of Coach Mike
Shanahan in Denver. He’s never shined with a full playbook, failing to grab top jobs before in
New York. Burt with another year of seasoning and a new start, Hixon might be a sneaky guff
for Smith; a weak one however. If there is adventure in your veins, and Steve Smith is in your
roster plans, check on the pre-season exploits of Kealoha Pilares. Pilares was a very productive
receiver at the University of Hawaii. Pilares has a running back build and a tough playing style,
much like Smith. In 2010, Pilares started all 13 games for the Warriors, finishing 2nd on the
team in catches with 88, netting 1306 yards (14.8 YPC) and a team-best 15 TDs. The tough
wideout runs a fast 4.4-forty and has experience lining up in the “x” or “Y” spots and even
started four games in college at running back. The 5’9-199 receiver is a hard worker, fearless and
could mimic Steve Smith in his absence. Kealoha Pilares…not a household name but Just
Sayin’.
New Orleans Saints
RB Starter: Darren Sproles; Handcuff: Pierre Thomas
WR Starter: Marques Colston; Handcuff: Lance Moore
Darren Sproles is coach Sean Payton’s do-it-all weapon. Sproles’ thrives in the passing game,
and his loss would create a huge void in a somewhat specialized position. New Orleans has one
player who has his own do-it-all skill set; Pierre Thomas. Thomas is the versatile constant in the
Saints’ backfield and will be drafted in the later rounds, making him a perfect handcuff for
Sproles owners. Thomas does everything good, not great. But he is effective and has a hound’s
nose for the goal line. His handcuff status could blossom into feature role with just one mishap to
either Sproles or plodding Mark Ingram, and Pierre Thomas should be a mid-round priority, as a
handcuff or a back with FLEX potential.
Somehow, even with his solid production, Lance Moore always seems to drop in drafts. Moore is
QB Drew Brees’ top one or two redzone targets annually. He is also PPR gold. But unless he is
featured in the pre-season, he will again drop far enough in drafts to gain handcuff status for top
Saints wideout Marques Colston. In his last four FULL seasons of play (2009 was injury
shortened) Moore has 32 TDs and 262 receptions. Currently with an ADP of 9.07 according to
fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Moore is a gimme as Marques Colston’s handcuff. DO IT!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB Starter: Doug Martin; Handcuff: Michael Smith
WR Starter: Vincent Jackson; Handcuff: Tiquan Underwood
The football “experts” have been touting Miami U RB Mike James, a 6th round selection in 2013,
to assume the understudy role directly behind Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin. James is a mudder
with little to no breakaway gear. Undaunted, I have been singing the praises of 2nd season
tailback from Utah State, Michael Smith. Training camp rolls around and low-n-behold, Smith is
now slated to be Doug Martin “next up” guy. Good move, and a good move for fantasy
footballers who own Doug Martin to snatch up Michael Smith. Smith aced his Pro-Day 40 time
(4.33) and closed out his college career with consecutive 100-yard rushing games. He has fresh
legs as he was a second team back at Utah State, subbing for Robert Turbin, a top collegiate
rusher now in Seattle. Smith can provide numbers in the passing game, and while not a clean
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hands-catcher, he gets the job done and is a run-after-catch threat with big play speed. Not many
will be on the prowl for Michael Smith’s services, but Doug Martin guys… take note and cuff
‘em.
Vincent Jackson was everything the Bucs hoped he’d be when they inked him away from the
Chargers last season. Mike Williams, playing opposite VJax, returned to being a productive
fantasy WR2 and QB Josh Freeman, with game warts exposed, still set career highs in passing
yards (4065) and TDs (27). Reserve wideout Tiquan Underwood flashed some of what he is
capable of producing, hauling in 28 passes and 2 TDs. Underwood has suited up for three
different teams (JAX, NE an TB) in four seasons, and last year he reunited with college coach
Greg Sciano. The reunion brought positive results as Underwood looked comfortable and made
plays. The former Rutgers receiver scorched the 2009 Combine with a stellar 4.31-forty dash and
that speed could be a fantasy weapon if Underwood is pressed into full time service.
Arizona Cardinals
RB Starter: Rashard Mendenhall; Handcuff: Ryan Williams
WR Starter: Larry Fitzgerald; Handcuff: Michael Floyd
Arizona changed the guard at the coaching level (again), with aggressive Bruce Arians now at
the helm. Running backs in Arians offense need to do two things well; run the football and pass
protect. Former Steeler Rashard Mendenhall gets the first nod for starting duties, and Ryan
Williams would appear to have the inside track to spell Mendenhall when needed. Both backs
are returning from severe 2012 injuries, but Coach Arians has talked up both rushers. At the
same time, the Cardinals drafted two more running backs; Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington.
Taylor is a bit of a Mendenhall clone with better receiving skills and Ellington is a smaller,
speed back also with pass catching ability. This is a true training camp situation that needs to be
sorted out. Williams must prove to be fully healthy, Taylor and Ellington need to display the
ability to pass protect. As of now there is no clear handcuff to Rashard Mendenhall.
Larry Fitzgerald is still a top-8 wide receiver and should jump higher in his ranking with the
arrival of veteran passer Carson Palmer. The passing game, o-line willing, should see a marked
improvement over 2012 thanks to Palmer. But another reason for improvement is the added
experience for 2012 rookie Michael Floyd. Floyd is a beast of a receiver, measuring 6’3-225 and
able to run a consistent 4.4x40. He is being drafted as a lowly 10th rounder in pre-season mocks,
and that is gold for Fitzgerald owners. If Floyd is hanging that low in your draft or auction, pull
the trigger and hand cuff the potential star to Larry Fitz.
St. Louis Rams
RB Starter: Isaiah Pead/Daryl Richardson; Handcuff: Zac Stacy (R)
WR Starter: Chris Givens; Handcuff: Austin Pettis
As of now the Rams backfield is markedly undecided. The early depth charts have Daryl
Richardson as the RB1, but that is likely due to Isaiah Pead starting the season with a one-game
suspension. Rookie Zac Stacy is receiving love in mock draft, ranking above Pead. Both Pead
and Richardson are the sporty fantasy halfbacks and Stacy is the rugged grinder. In fantasy, big
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play backs pay off better than steady eddy bulls… the fast guys require less volume to realize
results. The loser of the Pead/ Richardson camp battle is the St. Louis handcuff.
Mike Quick and Chris Givens are the “exciting” new guys on the block. Austin Pettis is the
forgotten 3rd rounder of 2011. Yet Pettis is putting up a gallant effort to secure a starting gig for
2013. Pettis has been written up as clearly the best offensive player in off-season work so far. He
brings a solid work ethic, size and inside slot chops to the field. He is also now a familiar target
for QB Sam Bradford and in his third NFL season. Quick and Givens will get the early
opportunities to start, and any fantasy footballer owning either of those receivers should tag
Austin Pettis as a handcuff with the potential to be more than that.
San Francisco 49ers
RB Starter: Frank Gore; Handcuff: LaMichael James
WR Starter: Anquan Boldin; Handcuff: AJ Jenkins
Frank Gore is a warhorse; he is also now a very warhorse age 30. Gore missed a lot of OTA
work this past off-season, and coach Harbaugh admitted that his veteran runner has taken a lot of
NFL punishment. Gore’s understudy previously has been Kendall Hunter, but Hunter suffered an
injury last season and is making his way back. 2012 rookie LaMichael James brings much of
what Hunter provided, but at a slightly more explosive level of action. James, though small in
pro-RB terms, is used to handling full workloads as a runner. While at Oregon James was Coach
Chip Kelly’s main running back, often hitting it up through the interior of the line and doing so
with courage and at full speed. In addition to his traditional running back skills, James is an
excellent receiver. As the 49er offense molds around the move talents of QB Colin Kaepernick,
LaMichael James’ portfolio of versatility and speed will be needed more than that of the slowing
Gore. Got Gore? Get LaMichael James!
Another aging warrior suits up for the ‘Niners; Anquan Boldin. Boldin now becomes defacto
WR1 with the probable season-ending Achilles injury to Mike Crabtree. Boldin’s game is close
to that of Crabtree’s, running short slants and moving the chains. San Francisco’s receiver unit is
a bit thin, and the one player that has truly made the effort to step up is second year man AJ
Jenkins. Jenkins is a 2012 first-round pick who basically red-shirted his rookie campaign.
However, this off-season Jenkins attached himself to the hip of QB Colin Kaepernick, working
on timing, the playbook and route running. The hard work has to pay off for the speedy and
talented wideout. Jenkins is a low-risk-high-reward hand cuff to Anquan Boldin. His game is a
perfect complement to the power arm of Kaepernick.
Seattle Seahawks
RB Starter: Marshawn Lynch; Handcuff: Robert Turbin
WR Starters: Percy Harvin/Sidney Rice; Handcuff: Golden Tate
Robert Turbin, the rookie from Utah State, is a Marshawn Lynch clone. Going 5’10-222, Turbin
is chiseled, run tough and can catch out of the backfield. Lynch is now relegated to two-down
snaps in the evolving Seahawk offense, and Turbin has been slated to be the passing down/third
down backfield occupant. Seattle invested a draft pick on RB Christine Michael, but he lacks the
vision and the pass catching skills that Robert Turbin brings. Marshawn Lynch owners need to
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make it a point to call out Robert Turbin as a clean handcuff to the rough-n-tumble Seahawk
starter. Turbin may even be a slight upgrade, due to his passing game involvement.
Seahawk coach Pete Carroll must have a warm spot in his heart for height-challenged receiver.
Three of his top four receivers measure 5’11 or 5’10. On Sidney Rice at 6’4 breaks the Seattle
run on short wideouts. Percy Harvin, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin all fit a mold; smaller, fast
and run-after-catch skilled. Rice and Harvin come to Seattle via the Minnesota pipeline, both
having been teammates there in 2009 and 2010. The ex-Vikings are the proposed starting wide
receivers in Seattle, and the set of hands to cuff to either of those pass catchers is Golden Tate.
Tate’s game is very similar to Harvin, especially in the various ways he handles the football.
Tate still needs to work on his route running and discipline to the playbook, but he is a
playmaker for sure, and works well with QB Russell Wilson. Sidney Rice has a rather large
injury file and Percy Harvin has battled migraines throughout his pro career. If Rice or Harvin
are slotted on your team, make a golden decision and hand cuff one of those playmakers with
another… Golden Tate.
The Wrap Up:
The smart and effective use of “handcuffing” reserve players to starters allows a fantasy football
owner to put him or herself in the position to BE lucky. Most feel you cannot control luck but, in
some cases, you can create your own advantageous situations. A successful fantasy season
requires good drafting, solid research, health of a roster and some pre-planned luck. Smart
handcuffing goes a long way in putting fantasy football GMs in fortunate predicaments. As this
amazing game evolves, fanballers at times have to be creative and effort to find an
unconventional cuff, such as a TE as a link to a starting WR. Circumstances and team
environment may mean that in the event of a major injury to a star RB or WR, the “next man up”
on the depth chart is not necessarily the team’s long-term solution. A fantasy owner might have
to dig down to the third running back on a roster as the true handcuff, such as the case in Tampa
Bay with Doug Martin and Michael Smith. It also pays to really know the rules of your league,
and plan ahead to utilize all the options your league allows. As training camps open and preseason games take place some cloudy scenarios will clear up (St. Louis, Carolina, Denver), some
will be determined due to injury and poor performance, and as always, there will be a few
surprises when teams break camp. Handcuff yourself to a successful 2013 season. Some hope
for luck… champions prepare to be lucky.
~ end ~
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Hangin' in the Red Zone 2013
July 26, 2013
by: John Holler
Of all the fantasy stats that make a player somebody that owners want to have on their
roster is how they perform in the red zone. There are certain players who consistently excel in
close and others who become invisible. When it comes to quarterbacks, the difference between a
guy like Drew Brees and Mark Sanchez is most evident in the red zone – where Brees is a stonecold killer and Sanchez is a warm turd.
There are a lot of factors that go into making star fantasy players. Many of them are
obvious. Red zone production isn’t something that gets promoted or widely circulated. It is part
of the game within the game and those who excel in the Red Zone are typically those who get
paid the 10-figure contracts.
What follows is a breakdown of the primary fantasy players and their effectiveness in the
red zone. The numbers are pretty self-explanatory, but we provide an analysis at the key fantasy
positions – both for what players did in 2012 and what they’ve done over the last three seasons.
For the purposes of analysis, a definition of the red zone needs to be provided. For
quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends and running backs in the receiving game, the red
zone is as its name is commonly known – inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. When a
quarterback drops to pass inside the 20-yard line, there can be a realistic expectation that the pass
could end up being a touchdown. When it comes to running the ball, it’s a different story. Even
Adrian Peterson isn’t expected to score when he gets a handoff at the 15-yard line. When it
comes to running backs and quarterbacks getting the ball, our definition of the red zone is the 5yard line. When an RB gets a handoff of a QB takes off out of the pocket from the 5-yard line in,
there is the realistic assumption that the plan on that play is to get points. So, as you look at the
red zone numbers keep in mind that when it comes to passing/receiving, the red zone is the 20yard line. When it comes to rushing, it’s the 5-yard line.
A final reminder: just as important as the players who are on the list as those who aren’t.
Some players (guys like DeSean Jackson) have proved to be almost meaningless in the red zone.
It doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be considered for being drafted, but it also tells you that, if he’s
going to score touchdowns, they will almost have to be long distance scores, because he isn’t
targeted or isn’t effective when the defenses are packed in the red zone.
QUARTERBACKS
2012 PASSING (Minimum 30 attempts)
Player-Att-Com-YD-TD-Int
Drew Brees 102-66-520-34-0
Matt Ryan 92-59-379-25-2
Peyton Manning 88-52-388-28-2
Matthew Stafford 87-41-309-15-4
Tom Brady 87-52-398-24-1
Eli Manning 84-38-281-18-1
Tony Romo 75-36-272-14-2
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Christian Ponder 75-44-284-18-3
Aaron Rodgers 75-47-350-26-0
Andy Dalton 74-42-296-20-0
Andrew Luck 73-37-15-2
Josh Freeman 72-40-330-21-2
Carson Palmer 70-38-233-14-1
Ben Roethlisberger 66-36-202-18-0
Philip Rivers 65-43-304-18-2
Sam Bradford 64-36-247-13-3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 60-34-270-16-3
Russell Wilson 59-35-261-18-0
Cam Newton 59-22-188-8-2
Joe Flacco 55-26-247-13-3
Matt Schaub 53-28-174-14-2
Brandon Weeden 53-25-226-6-2
Mark Sanchez 48-189-157-10-4
Ryan Tannehill 47-24-184-8-1
Jay Cutler 47-25-189-11-0
Michael Vick 46-21-157-9-2
Robert Griffin III 39-24-111-10-0
Chad Henne 38-19-127-7-2
Colin Kaepernick 32-15-97-5-1
Jake Locker 31-12-90-5-0
WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US
• Nobody is even close to Brees in red zone effectiveness and scoring.
• Matty Ice is becoming a much better RZ passer.
• Stafford was his own worst enemy last year.
• Ponder threw as many RZ passes as Rodgers.
• Dalton is quietly turning into an elite red zone passer.
• More than half of Freeman’s RZ completions went for touchdowns.
• Rivers was effective in the red zone, but didn’t get the opportunities.
• Wilson was incredibly effective in the red zone.
• Newton is awful in the red zone.
• Flacco needs to improve in the red zone.
• Sanchez is always bad, but at his worst near the goal line.
• RG3 wasn’t allowed to throw the ball much in close.
• Kaepernick was little more than a dump-off caretaker inside the 20.
LAST THREE YEARS PASSING (Minimum 100 attempts)
Player-Att-Com-YD-TD-Int
Drew Brees 311-196-1,364-86-7
Tom Brady 271-164-1,217-80-4
Matt Ryan 269-154-1,048-66-4
Aaron Rodgers 239-153-1,060-75-2
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Eli Manning 232-118-839-50-9
Philip Rivers 210-117-846-50-6
Matthew Stafford 209-1030789-50-7
Ryan Fitzpatrick 205-112-837-52-8
Josh Freeman 205-120-919-52-6
Mark Sanchez 199-97-718-39-8
Ben Roethlisberger 188-97-661-42-5
Michael Vick 183-96-580-35-7
Sam Bradford 182-86-578-29-8
Carson Palmer 175-93-595-39-7
Peyton Manning 174-101-737-54-2
Matt Schaub 172-93-639-41-4
Joe Flacco 171-76-662-38-4
Tony Romo 170-97-673-41-2
Jay Cutler 151-76-596-35-3
Matt Hasselbeck 141-78-556-27-2
Andy Dalton 141-78-564-35-0
Alex Smith 124-70-440-25-2
Cam Newton 123-50-393-21-5
Kyle Orton 109-50-337-20-1
Chad Henne 109-54-395-21-4
Christian Ponder 103-65-436-26-4
Matt Cassel 103-54-377-28-1
• Brees and Brady are head shoulders the best in the red zone.
• Eli Manning blows too many scoring opportunities.
• Sanchez sucks.
• Roethlisberger doesn’t get as much RZ production as he should.
• Bradford has a lot of work to do.
• If Peyton Manning completes a RZ pass, it’s just as often a touchdown as not.
• Flacco still needs to get better finishing off drives with his arm.
• Cutler is surprisingly ineffective in throwing RZ touchdowns.
• Dalton has never thrown a red zone interception.
• Newton is brutal in the red zone.
2012 RUSHING (Minimum 3 rushing attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Cam Newton 25-14-7
Robert Griffin III 6-14-3
Andrew Luck 6-19-5
Matthew Stafford 6-9-4
Tom Brady 5-6-4
Michael Vick 4-8-1
Ryan Fitzpatrick 4-(-1)-1
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Colin Kaepernick 4-(-8)-0
Aaron Rodgers 4-(-2)-0
Joe Flacco 4-(-7)-3
Tim Tebow 4-(-1)-0
Christian Ponder 3-(-6)-1
Andy Dalton 3-3-2
Ryan Tannehill 3-5-2
• Newton is four times as likely to run from the 5-yard line in as anyone.
• Luck may be the most effective RZ runner in the league in terms of finishing.
• Brady is a sneaky fantasy scorer.
• Kaepernick isn’t as elusive in close as one would think.
• Dalton is quietly becoming a red zone stud.
LAST THREE YEARS RUSHING (Minimum 5 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Cam Newton 28-44-15
Tom Brady 16-14-8
Michael Vick 13-12-6
Mark Sanchez 10-17-8
Tim Tebow 10-7-5
Aaron Rodgers 10-4-3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 9-(-4)-1
Joe Flacco 9-(-3)-5
Josh Freeman 8-(-1)-3
Matthew Stafford 7-10-5
Andrew Luck 6-19-5
Robert Griffin III 6-14-3
Andy Dalton 5-10-3
Tony Romo 5-2-2
• In two years, Newton has established himself as the elite RZ quarterback.
• Brady pads his stats nicely with short TD runs.
• Vick isn’t as dangerous in close as advertised.
• Sanchez is a much better red zone runner than passer.
• Luck could be the second-best RZ runner among QBs – better than RG3.
RUNNING BACKS
2012 RUSHING (Minimum 6 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Arian Foster 29-42-11
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Michael Turner 22-14-7
Stevan Ridley 20-2-8
Shonn Greene 19-23-7
Doug Martin 18-17-5
Adrian Peterson 18-18-6
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 14-10-5
Trent Richardson 12-5-5
Andre Brown 12-10-8
Alfred Morris 12-11-7
Ahmad Bradshaw 12-13-4
Willis McGahee 12-20-4
Frank Gore 11-6-6
Marshawn Lynch 11-15-5
Ray Rice 10-6-3
Jackie Battle 9-8-3
Steven Jackson 9-11-2
Daniel Thomas 9-13-4
Mike Tolbert 8-9-7
Darren McFadden 8-12-1
Matt Forte 8-9-2
LeSean McCoy 8-(-1)-2
LaRod Stephens-Howling 7-10-4
DeAngelo Williams 7-9-1
Michael Bush 7-4-5
Mikel Leshoure 7-7-6
Bryce Brown 7-13-2
Brandon Bolden 7-3-1
Beanie Wells 6-10-3
Chris Johnson 6-(-4)-1
Danny Woodhead 6-8-2
• Foster is the man when Houston gets near the end zone.
• Jackson may just more of the same for Atlanta.
• Ridley is all-or-nothing in close, not due to a lack of chances.
• Greene does most of fantasy damage in close.
• Peterson doesn’t dominate in this aspect of his game.
• BGE wasn’t the same in Cincinnati.
• Brown could be the reason Bradshaw is out of New York.
• Morris is a strong finishing off drives more than RG3.
• Lynch wasn’t always in Beast Mode by the goal line.
• Rice isn’t a finisher in close.
• Tolbert and Newton have made Williams and Jonathan Stewart RZ moot.
• McFadden struggles near the goal line.
• Michael Bush has become Chicago’s goal-line runner of choice.
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•
•
•
McCoy may have lost his goal-line scores to Bryce Brown.
Leshoure will take away any short-yardage TDs from Reggie Bush.
Chris Johnson sucks near the goal line.
LAST THREE YEARS RUSHING (Minimum 20 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Michael Turner 76-65-26
Arian Foster 67-92-28
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 49-57-23
Adrian Peterson 47-56-21
Mike Tolbert 44-49-22
Rashard Mendenhall 39-45-17
Frank Gore 39-31-14
Marshawn Lynch 39-35-18
Ray Rice 38-30-14
Michael Bush 37-41-18
LeSean McCoy 35-32-13
Cedric Benson 35-21-10
Shonn Greene 32-38-11
Chris Johnson 31-17-9
Peyton Hillis 29-33-9
Ahmad Bradshaw 28-36-14
Maurice Jones-Drew 28-18-7
Willis McGahee 28-34-8
Beanie Wells 25-32-13
Stevan Ridley 25-8-8
Steven Jackson 24-12-7
Matt Forte 23-16-3
Marion Barber 23-27-7
Thomas Jones 20-24-5
• Turner came up empty on far too many chances in close.
• Foster is the new sheriff in town near the goal line.
• BGE would have been better off in New England and Ridley isn’t the answer.
• Tolbert is a stud near the goal line and kills the other RBs on his team.
• Gore gets stuffed far too often in close.
• Rice doesn’t get many opportunities and doesn’t produce enough when he does.
• CJ2K has to score from long distance.
• MJD isn’t the power back that finishes off drives.
• Forte is arguably the worst featured back in the 5-yard line in the NFL.
RECEIVING 2012 (Minimum 6 targets)
Player-Tgt-Rec-Yd-TD
Darren Sproles 19-14-87-5
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Ronnie Brown 13-11-72-0
Ray Rice 11-5-6-0
Joique Bell 11-6-46-0
Pierre Thomas 10-7-49-1
LeSean McCoy 10-6-35-3
Jason Snelling 9-7-20-1
Arian Foster 9-6-2
Marcel Reece 9-7-46-1
Danny Woodhead 9-5-57-3
Adrian Peterson 7-5-11-1
Vick Ballard 7-5-39-1
Trent Richardson 7-1-10-0
Steven Jackson 7-3-21-0
Matt Forte 7-5-17-1
Jacquizz Rodgers 6-6-22-1
Reggie Bush 6-5-52-2
Alex Green 6-4-10-0
Jamaal Charles 6-4-19-1
• Sproles is the most dangerous RB red zone receiver in the league by far.
• The Saints throw a ton of passes to running backs in the red zone.
• Brown and Woodhead could make things interesting for Philip Rivers this year.
• Between Snelling and Rodgers, Steven Jackson use as a RZ receiver may drop.
• Forte is of more use as a receiver than a runner in the red zone.
• Keep an eye on Bush and Charles as sneaky red zone receivers.
LAST THREE YEARS RECEIVING (Minimum 15 targets)
Darren Sproles 48-38-275-12
LeSean McCoy 37-29-109-8
Jason Snelling 28-22-105-3
Arian Foster 27-18-103-4
Ray Rice 24-13-45-2
Ahmad Bradshaw 21-12-81-2
Matt Forte 21-15-60-2
Pierre Thomas 20-15-78-2
Marcel Reece 20-13-81-3
Danny Woodhead 20-11-82-4
Frank Gore 19-12-54-3
Steven Jackson 19-10-62-1
Toby Gerhart 18-15-69-3
Mike Tolbert 18-89-53-2
Reggie Bush 18-15-88-4
Adrian Peterson 16-11-64-3
Maurice Jones-Drew 16-13-85-6
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Ronnie Brown 16-14-93-0
John Kuhn 15-13-63-4
Darren McFadden 15-12-115-4
• Nobody is more of a scoring threat than Sproles.
• McCoy lost his effectively as a red zone receiver in 2012. A trend?
• Rice gets very little in the way of production after the catch.
• Minnesota has two RB receiving targets in the red zone.
• Bush is a dangerous receiving threat and that shouldn’t change in Detroit.
• When healthy MJD is a dangerous threat with his hands on the ball.
• Never underestimate the number of TDs Kuhn steals near the goal line.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Eric Decker 25-17-164-12
A.J. Green 24-13-94-8
Brandon Marshall 23-13-121-8
Marques Colston 23-17-176-10
Demaryius Thomas 21-9-78-6
Julio Jones 20-11-108-7
Vincent Jackson 20-11-139-6
James Jones 20-14-125-11
Roddy White 20-9-79-4
Larry Fitzgerald 20-8-47-2
Reggie Wayne 19-9-64-4
Victor Cruz 19-10-66-6
Mike Williams 19-8-39-6
Wes Welker 18-14-102-5
Mike Wallace 17-10-62-3
Hakeem Nicks 17-6-59-1
Calvin Johnson 17-6-50-2
Stevie Johnson 17-7-85-3
Jeremy Maclin 17-8-55-3
Brandon Lloyd 16-10-87-2
Lance Moore 15-8-67-4
Denarius Moore 15-9-75-5
Dez Bryant 14-9-51-4
Steve Smith 14-4-34-2
Miles Austin 13-5-54-2
Kendall Wright 13-7-52-3
Sidney Rice 13-7-70-4
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Donnie Avery 13-5-51-3
Percy Harvin 13-8-55-3
Andrew Hawkins 13-9-57-2
Jordy Nelson 12-6-30-4
Cecil Shorts 12-4-20-2
Kenny Britt 12-4-14-3
Golden Tate 12-9-62-4
Danny Amendola 12-8-58-2
Torrey Smith 11-8-108-6
Justin Blackmon 11-6-35-3
Michael Crabtree 11-5-43-5
• Decker emerged as Peyton Manning go-to RZ guy. Will it last?
• Marshall caught eight of the 11 RZTDs Jay Cutler threw last year.
• Colston is still Brees’ No. 1 target in the red zone.
• Julio Jones has surpassed Roddy White as the RZ target of choice.
• Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a formidable red zone tandem.
• Cruz is much more reliable than Nicks for Eli Manning.
• Fitzgerald’s 2012 woes were very much reflected in the red zone.
• James Jones was the clear-cut No. 1 RZ option for Aaron Rodgers.
• Megatron caught almost every pass outside the 20-yard line in 2012.
• Maclin is much more of a threat than DeSean Jackson in the red zone.
• Torrey Smith could be the best up-and-coming RZ receiver in the league.
• The 49ers will miss Crabtree in the red zone.
RECEIVING LAST THREE YEARS (Minimum 33 targets)
Roddy White 73-35-271-17
Larry Fitzgerald 64-30-188-11
Wes Welker 64-49-398-17
Marques Colston 58-41-391-19
Brandon Marshall 58-25-209-15
Mike Williams 57-24-189-16
Calvin Johnson 57-28-263-19
Stevie Johnson 52-23-218-15
Lance Moore 53-33-248-15
Reggie Wayne 52-24-203-12
Brandon Lloyd 50-23-192-11
Hakeem Nicks 49-25-205-13
Pierre Garcon 46-23-133-8
Miles Austin 45-19-146-10
Greg Jennings 45-29-206-16
Jeremy Maclin 44-27-212-14
James Jones 43-30-224-17
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A.J. Green 41-18-132-11
Mike Wallace 40-19-136-7
Percy Harvin 40-23-158-6
Santana Moss 39-19-132-10
Dwayne Bowe 39-16-128-11
Jordy Nelson 37-21-148-12
Jabar Gaffney 37-20-159-6
Dez Bryant 37-24-180-14
Danny Amendola 37-24-137-5
Nate Burleson 36-23-151-9
Anquan Boldin 36-12-102-6
Michael Crabtree 36-16-125-8
Demaryius Thomas 36-16-134-9
Eric Decker 36-22-208-16
Vincent Jackson 34-18-179-11
Malcolm Floyd 34-14-121-9
Steve Smith 34-11-101-5
• White has a lot of history with Matt Ryan, but Julio Jones in taking over.
• Fitzgerald gets too many passes thrown his way for so few touchdowns.
• Nobody has scored more RZ touchdowns than Colston.
• Marshall is much more dangerous in Chicago than he was in Miami.
• The Lions are hoping 2012 was an aberration for Megatron.
• Josh Freeman has a growing history with Mike Williams that is noteworthy.
• No WR tandem has been targeted more than Colston and Moore.
• Jennings could be a nice red zone addition for Minnesota.
• Maclin is the only Eagles WR consistently targeted in close.
• Green has done more in two years than most top receivers have in three.
• Wallace isn’t a scoring threat commensurate with being a No. 1 WR.
• Harvin is used in the red zone, but rarely finishes off drives with TDs in close.
• When Bowe catches a pass in the RZ, it goes for a TD two-thirds of the time.
• Bryant is a more reliable target in the red zone than Austin.
• For being such a tough receiver, Boldin doesn’t catch nearly enough passes.
• Steve Smith never has been a viable red zone receiver and never will be.
• Vincent Jackson is glad he made the move to Tampa Bay.
• Why isn’t Andre Johnson showing up on these lists?
TIGHT ENDS
Heath Miller 20-12-63-7
Jimmy Graham 17-9-82-8
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Rob Gronkowski 17-10-73-8
Kyle Rudolph 17-14-95-9
Tony Gonzalez 17-12-85-8
Martellus Bennett 16-7-48-4
Greg Olsen 14-8-82-3
Jason Witten 14-8-69-3
Joel Dreessen 14-8-27-4
Brandon Myers 14-9-60-4
Marcedes Lewis 14-7-43-4
Anthony Fasano 13-9-58-5
Dennis Pitta 13-8-78-5
Jermaine Gresham 13-9-80-4
Dallas Clark 12-8-68-4
Brandon Pettigrew 12-5-62-3
Owen Daniels 12-3-24-3
Aaron Hernandez 12-7-40-4
Brent Celek 11-6-45-1
Tony Scheffler 11-4-23-1
Jermichael Finley 11-4-38-2
Antonio Gates 11-8-94-6
Scott Chandler 10-6-57-5
• If Miller isn’t back for the start of the year, Big Ben will suffer in the red zone.
• Graham and Gronkowski score when they catch RZ passes.
• Wherever you have Rudolph ranked, this could be reason to bump him up.
• Gonzo is still a god in the red zone, despite Julio and Roddy being around.
• Bennett came up empty too often in New York.
• Fasano quietly remains a go-to target in Miami.
• Keep an eye on Pitta and an expanding role in the offense.
• Pettrigrew should be better in the red zone.
• Gates isn’t used as much as he used to be, but he is still money in the RZ.
RECEIVING LAST THREE YEARS (Minimum 25 targets)
Rob Gronkowski 59-41-344-29
Tony Gonzalez 58-34-259-21
Jimmy Graham 54-31-242-21
Aaron Hernandez 49-28-166-16
Brandon Pettigrew 45-20-195-12
Jason Witten 44-26-165-14
Marcedes Lewis 44-20-133-11
Dustin Keller 42-20-118-11
Brent Celek 42-23-154-7
Antonio Gates 39-27-241-19
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Greg Olsen 39-20-173-10
Heath Miller 38-22-171-11
Tony Scheffler 36-15-117-7
Jermaine Gresham 36-24-177-13
Owen Daniels 33-16-121-8
Jermichael Finley 30-16-130-11
Anthony Fasano 30-18-129-11
Joel Dreessen 29-20-114-12
Vernon Davis 26-18-120-11
Dallas Clark 26-15-108-8
Scott Chandler 25-16-149-11
Martellus Bennett 25-11-71-4
Zach Miller 25-15-99-5
Ben Watson 25-12-102-7
• Gronk has been putting up unprecedented Hall of Fame numbers.
• Gonzo and Graham make the NFC South the best TE division in the NFL.
• There will be room for some to take the role Hernandez had with the Patriots.
• It is hoped that Pettigrew’s 2012 was an aberration like Calvin Johnson’s.
• Celek gets targeted in close, but doesn’t seal the deal often enough.
• Gates is so money – 70% of his targets get caught and 70% of them go for TDs.
• Daniels is far from dominant in the red zone.
• Gresham is targeted in the end zone, not out of it.
• There’s a reason Bennett is on his third team in three years.
~ end ~
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Passing Fancy 2013: Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Quarterback-weighted leagues… quarterback-weighted leagues.
Yellow-dominate bananas.
Guitar-playing rock bands.
Quarterback-weighted leagues?
By nature, aren’t practically all fantasy football leagues quarterback-weighted? Just a thought
before delving into the latest theories of working up plans for the prolific passers of 2013.
Football in the college ranks and the National Football League have morphed into a league
dominated by exciting and diversified aerial schemes. Footballs are sailing to receivers headed
on down-field posts (8-route), fades (9-route) and flags (7-route) while mid-range pass catchers
and slot demons are slanting (2-route), cutting (out or 5-route) and digging (6-route) across the
gridiron. Sporty running backs are heavily involved also, taking down launches on swing passes,
bubble screens, rocket and wheel routes. Offensive masterminds are laying out inventive,
complex plays combination routes out of spread formations, shotgun, empty backfields and
pistol to get as many “hands” into pass patterns as possible. Traditional carry-the-load running
backs are no longer the foundation of an offense, giving way to the multi-skilled tailback asked
to chip-block, pick up the blitz, run a progressive route-tree and catch the football in widereceiver like manner. And who is in the middle of all this action? The center-piece, the trigger…
the quarterback.
No skill position on the field handles the football more times, in every conceivable pressurepacked situation than the quarterback. The quarterback is the one player on each team that has
the very real potential to explode for more yards from scrimmage, has a hand in the majority of
touchdowns scored and is directly responsible for the success or failure of wide receivers, tight
ends and now holds more responsibility to the on field prosperity of his backfield mates. Making
it all possible for the quarterback to be the weekly performance lightning rod is the NFL’s
revamped rules catering to the protection the star passers and the ever-favorable rule tweaks
enhancing the receivers ability to haul the ball in. The game has evolved into a wide-open wildwest shoot-out. It is not by chance that quarterbacks most often dominate the scoring in most
fantasy leagues.
Having rules in place to protect the quarterback more than ever and receivers being treated with
velvet gloves, it is an era of let ‘er rip offense. Prior to 2011 only a single pro passer resided as a
member of the 5000 passing yard club; Miami’s Dan Marino aired out 5084 in 1984; it stood the
challenge of others for 27 years. Since 2008, however, the 5000 mark has been topped 5 times,
with 4 coming in just the past two years. Including those 5000 yard throwers, 11 quarterbacks
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broke the 4000 barrier last season alone. Dan Marino’s record of passing yards in a season
(5084) was broken twice in the same year in 2011. Saints QB Drew Brees has eclipsed 5000
yards passing three times in the last five seasons and took down Marino’s record in 2011 with
the now table-setting 5476. Quarterbacks have thrown for 4,500 yards or more in a season 39
times in the league’s history, 22 times in just the past 4 seasons!
With passing yards usually brings touchdown passes. 2011 was the first time three quarterbacks
surpassed 40-passing TDs in a season. Drew Bress, a 5K yard passer last season, ripped another
43 in the process. Statistically, performances in the passing game are at an all-time high.
Fantasy football commissioners and league managers have been altering scoring rules in in an
effort to level the scoring field between the QB and the other skill players. Many leagues focus
on the basic scoring strategies, with quarterbacks getting three or four points for each passing TD
and one point for every 20 or 25 passing yards, while taking a point away for each interception.
A scoring menu like this is an attempt to devalue the quarterback position; well-intentioned but
mostly futile. With all the machinations put in place by fantasy league bosses and organizers to
level the playing field, quarterbacks still end up reigning supreme.
There are other fantasy league rule-setters that take a contrary viewpoint and actually recognize
the quarterback as the most important player on the field and, much like the NFL, design the
rules of their leagues to highlight the play of the passer. Setting a QB-weighted league does not
require much creativity or heavy mental lifting. Quarterback-weighted leagues tend to award
passers six points for every touchdown instead of three or four. A bonus for hitting 300-yards
passing in a game or for longer touchdown passes is often part of the QB-friendly league. Some
leagues take to giving the QB a point for every 10 yards passing rather than the more
conservative 20-25 yard breakpoint. A PPR league could install these options looking to find
ways of bringing some extra value to quarterbacks and thus thrust the passers’ value over
running backs and over-valued dink-n-dunk slot receivers.
Another wrinkle that is making its way into fantasy football scoring menus is total yards from
scrimmage for QBs. With the infusion of dual-threat athletes taking snaps from center, passing
yard bonuses and breakpoints are giving way to air miles AND rushing yardage in combined
total tally. The NFL changes quickly from season to season, and astute fantasy football
commissioners constantly alter there leagues to keep up with the times. Again, a league that
caters to QB yards from scrimmage falls into the QB weighted scoring category also.
In any scoring format, be it balanced scoring, PPR and obviously QB-weighted leagues, starting
quarterbacks in general are going to score more overall points, and specifically more points PER
game than most players at other positions just because of sheer volume of chances. The
questions to be answered each pre-season as fantasy football owners prep for their drafts and
auctions are which passers (if any) rate first round consideration over stud running backs and star
wide receivers? What circumstances may have changed that might make it wise to focus on
taking an elite passer early, especially in leagues that are most favorable to quarterbacks? Have
all the aggressive rules alterations by the NFL to enhance the passing game forced this year’s
fanballers to consider a return to the late 1980s-early 1990s when legends like Dan Marino
(Drew Brees), Joe Montana (Tom Brady), Randall Cunningham (Cam Newton), Steve Young
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(Robert Griffin III) and Warren Moon (Matt Stafford) were having their names called out in
fantasy drafts opening rounds? Or, has the infusion of extremely talented, versatile, mobile and
pro-ready young signal-callers like Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Ryan
Tannehill, RGIII and Newton, joined by the existing star-quality vets like Aaron Rodgers, Matt
Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo and Eli Manning created such a deep pool of viable arms that
waiting on a QB is the way to go?
The above mentioned changes to the game, the rapid evolution of the running back position into
interchangeable (RBBC) pieces that are used as support for the passing game, AND the
proliferation of Pistol/Spread 3-4-5 receiver formations have truly altered the value of the early
rounds of fantasy football drafts and auctions. If your league awards six points for TD passes and
runs, bonuses for yards passing in a game, long passing scores, total yards from scrimmage or
any other “extras” for QBs, then you are in a QB-WEIGHTED league. In 2012 it seemed like a
great opportunity to add four-to-six quarterback names as solid first round draft options. 2013,
just like that, we have a different situation.
True top-of-the-list fantasy star players, be it QB, RB, WR or TE are products of the times they
play in as much as a result stemming from their talents. The past decade or so we witnessed the
stud running back era, with the “feature” RB dominating the first two-to-three rounds of fantasy
drafts. But a new era has risen, and we are experiencing the dawn of the stud quarterback period
in the NFL and fantasy football. Let’s not bog ourselves down with statistics and sabermetric
haze here. Instead, we’ll dive into practical application and old school fantasy football logic.
Assume we have identified that we are, indeed, in a QB-Weighted league (6-points for passing
TDs, bonus points for passing yards and/or yards from scrimmage, etc.). The obvious objective
each week is to score more points than the opposition. To do that in the QB-friendly league, base
your team/roster/draft on nailing down one of the true top-tiered QBs early… possibly in the first
round. Remember, running backs in today’s game are mostly meant to be interchangeable. NFL
coaches have finally figured out that the position is too demanding physically for one player to
handle alone, hence the perceived fantasy football evil known as RBBC. There are a few that
still separate themselves from the rest of the pack, qualifying as “feature” backs. Adrian
Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch and LeSean
McCoy all come to mind as first round talents that are a step above the rest of the ball-carriers in
the NFL. But even in that elite group, Charles, Rice and McCoy all work within a passing
offense and they have weeks where they are not utilized any better or more than the tailbacks
rated under them. From week-to-week you can sub in a potential point-getting ball carrier (use
that term lightly) by working your Fantasy Football Mastermind Strength Of Schedule. Let other
owners fret and scramble for those top53-4 running backs fantasy experts considered studs.
There’s a good chance that those star halfbacks are going to miss some time on the field. Adrian
Peterson was a horse last season; can he survive another carry-load like that again? Jamaal
Charles has an injury history and he may be injury-prone with the anticipated rise in touches this
season. Rice has a rising Bernard Pierce to contend with; Foster a huge carry total in the past 3
seasons… there is great weekly availability risk here. And even at their best it is most likely that
none of them will outscore the top 12 passers this season. Prepare on working the following
passers into your early-rounds draft plan; Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO) and Peyton
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Manning (DEN). A few advantages of focusing your strategy on drafting one of these elite QBs
in round one or two are;
1. Opening opportunity to draft late in the first round to secure your cornerstone (QB).
2. Your cornerstone draft pick WILL lead your team (and possibly your league) in scoring.
3. Your first round pick is most likely to stay on the field and play a full schedule.
4. Flexibility is created and you can ounce on a stud RB that may unexpectedly fall to you late in
round one, AND you still can nail down a Rodgers, Brees or Denver’s Manning on the turnaround.
Regarding the first three advantages, can you say any of the above about ANY running back you
would draft in round one? Will one of the top three RBs still be available for you late in round
one? In a QB-weighted league, will a RB or WR ever lead your league in scoring? Are the
chances favorable that your top RB will make it through the entire season playing at full speed,
or a full slate of games? Sure, wide receivers are likely to play all 16 games and put up great
numbers but even the best in the game (Calvin Johnson) have to share the ball with at least two
other sets of hands on any given play AND, your stud QB is the one who is getting the ball to
any of those superstar receivers anyway. Even with the success of the very best wideouts in the
game, one of these quarterbacks is scoring his points at the same time. Another advantage of
being able to draft later in the first round, assuming the draft is serpentine, is you still have ample
opportunity to select a solid running back or elite wide receiver. You next pick is just around the
corner and there is still plenty of value in early round two. It just makes sense in a QB-weighted
league; given the offensive environment… draft late, take the quarterback. If a “must have”
halfback happens to fall deep into round one (Ray Rice has a surprisingly low round 1 ADP),
you are still in position to nab that surprise left on the board and steal a stud QB on the turn early
in round two (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees).
These A-list QBs are most capable of lighting up 40 touchdowns and 5000 yards passing. That
adds up to two top running backs rushing for 1500 yards and 10 TDs EACH… PLUS two wide
receivers hauling in 1000 yards and 10 scores apiece. That is four rounds of draft picks in one
player; all this from your most important pick in the draft, a gold-standard quarterback. Sure,
there is no guarantee these passers are going to reach the 40/5000 marks this season, but they are
likely to be close. If the league you participate in is weighted toward the performance of the QB,
then a slight dip in these eye-popping numbers isn’t going to create any sizeable shift in their
perceived first round value.
The ever-changing National Football League forces fantasy football participants to re-evaluate
draft and roster strategy each and every off-season. Heading into the 2012 drafts it looked like 46 quarterbacks warranted first round consideration, thanks to previous dominating exploits and
given the perceived thin depth of talent at that position around the league. One season later the
quarterback position in the NFL seems as strong and deep as ever. After the three studs in the
tier-one level (Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning) there is little separating the next 6-9 passers when we
take into account skill, supporting cast, opportunity, offensive schemes and strength of schedule.
The quarterback pool is also getting a lift from a few of the bottom-rated passers of 2012 who
find themselves in better situations thanks to a change in coaching, uniform, personnel or all of
the above. The fading star of Carson Palmer gets a jolt of energy in 2013 as a Cardinal, playing
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under former Colts coach Bruce Arians. Arians’ style of play-calling and offensive theory is a
clean match for Palmer’s particular style of play. Kansas City’s new dart throwing passer, Alex
Smith, was hand-picked by Coach Andy Reid because he not only “fits”, but seems to be ready
to blossom as an NFL star QB. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden gets to open it up and use that big
arm of his in a Norv Turner down-field focused passing game. Disappointing St. Louis QB Sam
Bradford has the best set of speedy playmakers he’s ever had as a pro, and finally has a chance to
work the entire field in his air attack. Chicago enigma Jay Cutler gets to perform for the best
offensive coach he’s had since his Mike Shanahan days in Denver. Yes gang, the cupboard
appears full with fine passing ingredients and fantasy football QB options in 2013. The rising
talents are comingling with other throwers who are seeing their stock value fall this year. While
Patriots passer Tom Brady is still an elite QB talent, his supporting cast and the offensive
philosophy is vastly altered. New England has gutted its receiver corps and seems to be shifting
to a run-based offense. Brady’s championships have come with him passing under 4000 yards
and Coach Belichick doesn’t forget things that worked in the past. Philly’s Mike Vick not only
has been just mediocre at best the past 1.5 seasons, he’s in a true battle for a job with 2nd season
man Nick Foles. Joe Flacco has a nice title trophy on his mantle, but he lost his best receiver this
off-season (Anquan Boldin) and the Ravens did little to replace the go-to veteran for Flacco.
Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub are experiencing the down-side of their careers and their peak
years are in the rear-view mirror. What does this mean for those fanballers working in QBfriendly leagues? Quite simply, if you are not hell-bent on having the top three QBs on your
roster this season, then even in QB-weighted leagues, wait it out and allow the best available
passer come to you while you fortify other positions in your lineup.
Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning,
Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III all have the right set of tools to produce winning fantasy
points. In 2013 there are others that are knocking on that door. Arizona QB Carson Palmer broke
the 4000 passing yards mark with a talent-depleted Oakland Raider offense last season. This year
he is tossing the rock to the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and
aggressive play-caller Bruce Arians is his coach. Tennessee’s Jake Locker has a rocket arm and
great wheels along with the full-time job and a year of experience under his belt. The Titans have
receiving weapons, a quality o-line and a new offensive coordinator who is young and looking to
make his mark in the league. Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman battled through inconsistency last
season, yet eclipsed 4000 yards through the air and has fine wideouts to throw to. Seattle’s
Russell Wilson was allowed to slowly mature as a rookie and began to air it out late in the
season. Wilson has an underrated assortment of receivers to work with this season. Though
Philip Rivers is in decline, he’ll get a fresh start with a new coaching staff. Rivers did throw for
over 4600 yards and 27 TDs the season prior to last; he’s still not that far gone. Sam Bradford,
Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler all have much improved situations over last season
and should be ready to approach career years in 2013.
2013 should prove to be a banner year for the passing game. The quarterback talent is deep, the
systems in place are dynamic and the supporting players are tailored to helping the passer
succeed in various and creative ways. The game today is all about big plays and air-dominance.
Things happen quickly in the NFL and changing circumstances create opportunity for some and
consternation for others. The early-to-mid 1990’s saw quarterbacks drafted regularly in the first
round, and it was fun and exciting. Today the game is all about getting off as many plays as
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possible on offense and thus, boosting the scoring opportunities for the QB. It’s time to check
their scoring menus in your leagues, identify if your leagues are QB-weighted, and then use that
passer-friendly program to your best advantage.
Prepping for your 2013 season and participating in a QB-weighted fantasy league, lineup Aaron
Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees for round one or early round two call-outs. Once
those elite playmakers are off the board, shift your plans and load up your other skill positions
before selecting a passer. 2013 brings the deepest group of arms ever assembled in the pro ranks.
~ end ~
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Zigging and Zagging Through Your Draft
July 26, 2013
by: H.D. Coelho
All of us enjoy sports action, or at the very least fantasy sports action. Football, baseball,
and basketball are all very popular but personally I also enjoy the pugilistic arts. That’s right,
boxing. I partook in the sport in my younger days and was intrigued by the physical chess match
taking place in the ring. Every punch has a counter, jab or uppercut so if you can’t dart and
dodge, zig and zag, you would not be upright for long. That’s a strategy we could follow in
fantasy drafts to some degree.
Every season shortly after the NFL draft the fantasy hype machine begins churning out
names; players no fantasy player could live without. A shrewd owner learns to zig when others
zag, letting others reach for the hype while you snap up the talent that falls to you. Lets look at
some overvalued players for this season, and some great values to snap up in their place.
Quarterbacks
Overvalued- Tom Brady
I know the wealth of expertise Brady has at the position, and how he is top 5 every year
but the handwriting is clearly on the wall this year in New England. He lost two of his top
receiving options with the departure of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and the handcuffed
departure of Aaron Hernandez. Then factor in Rob Gronkowski and his iffy health status, as
well as newly acquired Danny Amendola and his frequent health hiccups and things look mighty
thin in the cupboard in Beantown.
Undervalued- Andrew Luck
There is no luck required, this kid has tons of talent and football smarts. Reggie Wayne is
still there (another undervalued player) and looks for the talented tight ends Coby Fleener and
Dwayne Allen to be more active too. The teams also added Darius Heyward-Bey plus
incumbent Ty Hilton will get more in the mix. It’s not a stretch for Luck to finish top 5 in 2013.
Getting a signal caller like this in round 6 or so will give you time to gobble up talented running
backs and wide receivers.
Honorable mentions- Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson
Running Backs
Overvalued-David Wilson
I must confess, I am a David Wilson owner, but I sure don’t see him as my RB1. Sure,
he has tons of talent and always could pull off another 300 yard plus effort like he did last year
against the Saints. Then again, he is also a bad fumble or two away from the Coughlin
doghouse plus he still is not a natural fit in pass protection. It’s also not a forgone conclusion
that Andre Brown may not be the foundation back in this RBBC with some of the speedy Wilson
mixed in. That’s a bit risky to justify his ADP of round 2 or 3.
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Undervalued-Jamaal Charles
Everyone was amazed by Adrian Peterson and his performance following a major injury,
but lost in the shuffle was Jamaal Charles. Poorly used on a badly coached team, Charles still
totaled over 1500 yards. I would be shocked if Andy Reid would not use Charles to his potential
both on the ground and in space catching balls out of the backfield. At just 26 years old, he is
poised for his best season to date.
Honorable mentions-Lamar Miller, Pierre Thomas
Wide Receivers
Overvalued-Percy Harvin
True enough; Harvin is a dynamic playmaker who can be even be effective in the
backfield if the opportunity presents itself. Yet the way he makes opposing defenses pay most is
catching passes and lots of them, and those come from lots of targets. Where Harvin was the
focal point in a thin Minnesota receiving corps, Seattle is much deeper at the position plus it’s a
very basic running offense that was last in passing attempts in 2012. Its unlikely that Harvin will
get enough targets to justify his WR1 position he is being drafted in.
Honorable Mention-Wes Welker
Undervalued-Steve Smith
The speedy Smith has done nothing for his entire career but catch footballs and lots of
them. With a talented quarterback who is sure to get better, Smith is still really the only guy in
town at the position. Brandon Lafell and David Gettis don’t scare me. Neither does the
additions of Domenik Hixon or special teams ace Ted Ginn Jr. It should be a no brainer that
Smith exceeds his average draft spot of the eighth round.
Honorable Mention-Antonio Brown, Cecil Shorts
There is a lot can be gained by going against the flow and grabbing those player values
that fall to us. Of course, we all will be guilty of reaching for a player too early from time to
time but that’s a discussion for another time. For now just remember to zig and zag.
~ end ~
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Magic QB Handcuffs
July 26, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Do you remember those trick handcuffs you would see advertised on the back cover of
comic books when you were a kid? You know...they looked just like a pair of regular ordinary ol'
handcuffs, but some amazing magic happened when you knew how to use them properly. They
seemed like one plain and simple thing that many would ignore, but they really were so much
more in the right hands. In many ways, I think this is a great analogy for drafting your backup
fantasy QB, since a very good plan is often to take the ordinary guy as your #2 - a guy that is
way more than he seems, but only when you know how to use him properly!
Even though many pundits are claiming that this is the deepest set of starting fantasy QBs
in recent history, it still could be a very reasonable approach to take a QB early and then wait on
a backup until late in the draft. Unlike a WR or RB that will fill multiple starting spots in your
lineup , you only have one QB slot in most leagues...and therefore you tend to stick with one guy
in your starting lineup all season long (barring injury). But then, the dreaded bye week comes
by and you have to play that ordinary Joe and many make the mistake of overvaluing that one
week on draft day; many times a fantasy owner gets paranoid and spends a way-too-high draft
pick on a backup QB that they actually hope will never see the light of day outside of a single
bye week start! To be honest, for most teams and owners, the loss of the starting QB (which is
the most predictable of the positions atop the rankings, and the highest scoring) already means
that your season has a significant likelihood of turning out considerably poorer than expected.
So why worry?
In this article, I will take a look at the top three tiers of QBs in the Mastermind rankings
(the top eleven passers, as of the start of July) and offer some quick thoughts on the low-rent
QBs that would make good partners for each of them on your fantasy roster, based on schedule
and recent history. I will mostly avoid using the guys in the 4th tier (Wilson, E.Manning, Dalton,
Freeman, Big Ben, Rivers) for several reasons. First of all....your personal rankings could
reasonably have several of these guys in YOUR top tiers, or on the draft boards of other owners
in your drafts. Therefore, some of them clearly will be drafted as fantasy starters, especially in
12 team leagues. Secondly....none of those guys would be available in the latter third of your
draft, as they clearly will be valued enough to be off the grid by round 12 or so. The main focus
of this piece is to help you think about a guy you can get REAL late, that will give you that
chance at a one-week nuclear score without having to spend a real high draft pick on him. In
fact, some of these guys might not even get drafted in several leagues under normal
circumstances, and might be available as last round options, depending on league rules and
owner tendencies!
Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton (week 4):
There are a whole host of intriguing matchups from which to pick in this one, with numerous
lower tier QBs facing less-than-stellar defenses. Again, I will focus on the lower-ranked passers
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since you likely spent a very high pick on Rodgers and will not be looking for someone to
potentially break out and sustain greatness that is competitive. Jake Locker will be at home
against as suspect Jets' pass defense and should have a good day; mobile QBs are a little tougher
for this team, and they were clearly untalented without Revis to take away half of the field as we
saw in 2012. A huge day should be had by Ryan Tannehill who is on the fast track in New
Orleans. Everyone throws on the Saints, and they are particularly susceptible to the deep
speedsters and the TE. Enter Tannehill and his new toys Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller, and no
consistent run game on the horizon with which to bludgeon the Saints. This one could be a track
meet. Carson Palmer plays an improved (on paper) Bucs pass defense that was among the worst
in league history in 2012, but did add Darrell Revis. Not that you would bench a healthy Newton
or Rodgers, but Palmer does have choice matchups also while coming out of a bye in weeks 10
(HOU) and 11 (@JAX) when these two face some of their tougher matchups; does a healthy
Palmer trump a gimpy stud QB? Other solid options are Matt Flynn (vs.WAS) and Jay Cutler
(@DET)
Robert Griffin (week 5)
There are not a lot of "wow!" options that really jump out at me in this week, and with the
questions surrounding RG3's recovery from late-season knee injury...it might make more sense
to take a more solid backup QB (like Eli) rather than a late-round flyer with questionable talents.
But if you trust in RG3, then you can't help but like Jay Cutler's hosting of the Saints in what
should be a high-scoring affair and some chances to get Marshall and Jeffrey downfield. There
are some lesser plays that also spark some interest in me, notably Brandon Weeden (vs. BUF)
and Sam Bradford (vs. JAX). Each are playing at home against some lesser competition, and
each might be looking for an early season confidence booster by airing it out. Weeden will be
trying to reengage suspended WR Josh Gordon and Bradford will still be adjusting to his new
receivers in the early season, so each guy could be putting the ball in the air. A far sneakier play
would be Alex Smith facing the Titans. While I do not expect this to be any sort of shootout, the
Titans have been terrible in defending the TE in recent seasons, and the new Andy Reid offense
will surely be able to exploit this. As a late-round gamble, waiting for a backup and settling for
Smith would not be a terrible consolation prize. Other options: Matt Flynn (vs. SD) and Michael
Vick (@NYG)
Matt Ryan (week 6)
This is another week without huge options that jump off the page, and this might be another case
where I actually recommend taking a low 4th tier guy as your backup. Philp Rivers (vs. IND) has
a super fantasy history against the Colts, especially at home and makes the best play as a partner
here. While he is not returning back to the Bay area, Alex Smith will see a team he has faced in
preseason a lot (vs. OAK). In the regular season, he has only faced the porous Raiders twice, but
he has thrown 5 TDs in those two games -- and this year's team may be worse than the ones
from those historical matchups. The best low-tier matchup will probably be Brandon Weeden
(vs. Detroit). besides facing an unchallenging pass defense, the Browns will be in the third game
of a long homestand and will be comfortable, the Lions will be coming off a tough road trip to
Lambeau. Other options include Michael Vick (@TB) and Sam Bradford (@ HOU).
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Drew Brees (week 7)
There are more than a few potentially lucrative matchups on the docket this week for the lesser
fantasy passers . I kind of like Jay Cutler on the road in Washington - he tends to play a little
better on the road without the Windy City boo-birds heckling him. The Skins defense was also
atrocious in the air in 2012, and I don't see a great deal of improvement yet this year. Michael
Vick is at home against Dallas, and he has a great history against the Cowboys since donning an
Eagles' uniform; his QB rating as an Eagle vs. the Cowboys is well north of 100. However, he is
a better pairing with a Tier 3 QB that is off this week - e.g., guy that might actually get benched
if Vick returns to glory. A real last-round flyer would be whoever wins the starting gig for the
Jets who host the Patriots that week, especially if it is Mark Sanchez. New England is notorious
for allowing a ton of garbage points in the air to the Jets, and this one should be no different as
the Jets should trail early and often. If it is Geno Smith, however, I would think that The Hoodie
will find a way to befuddle the rookie a bit more. Other solid options: Ryan Tannehill (vs. BUF)
Andrew Luck (week 8)
This is a tough week, and only partially because there are so many good fantasy teams off this
week at the same time. I am not as sold on Luck being as big a fantasy force in 2013 as are
many, so the fact that there are no great matchups among the late-round backups makes me want
to consider drafting a backup quicker than most and selecting from the 4th tier. I actually think
that Tony Romo is a good match for Luck and they might need to be drafted in consecutive
rounds in rounds 7-10 somewhere to make sure they get together on your roster. Romo also has a
dream matchup (@DET) in Luck's bye week even if the youngster pans out. The other three guys
that have the most choice matchups are all guys that I think will have great potential for garbage
time while trailing heavily in their respective games. I am fairly sure that rookie E.J.Manuel (@
NO) will be in the lineup by week 8, and will get a host of garbage yards against the Saints on
the road. Ditto for Christian Ponder (vs. GB) who will not have the luxury of feeding AD if
behind by three scores. The more solid of the three garbage men this week would be Ryan
Tannehill (@ NE) who should also have some other good weeks along the way and would be a
more solid option to couple with his fellow sophomore Luck.
Peyton Manning, Colin Kaepernick and Matt Stafford (week 9)
Wow - there will be a lot of fantasy owners with stud QBs sitting on the bench this week, so you
will be in a race with several owners to secure the right backup for your roster. In addition,
middle tier guys like Eli and Palmer are off this week also, and even another potential lastrounder like Henne/Gabbert is off the grid. Yikes! Fortunately, the entire middle tier of QBs has
good matchups, so there yet will be a lot of options available for you. One low-end matchup that
trips my trigger is Alex Smith (@ BUF); like I described earlier for Smith in week 5, Buffalo has
traditionally been terrible against the TE so he could have a big week due to the specific
defensive scheme in this matchup. One player to surely avoid is Jay Cutler (@ GB) even though
he is coming off a bye, because his history in Lambeau is downright butt-ugly with high sack
and INT totals and he has been beaten up. But I really do like starting a guy in the late national
game, especially if it has the possibility of being a high-scoring matchup...and Matt Schaub (vs.
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IND) on Sunday night with both teams coming off byes and likely battling for the division lead?
Take the Schaubster here and put him in your pocket as the best option for this week.
Tom Brady (week 10)
With a guy that will never get benched by a fantasy GM and rarely ever has missed a game, you
are definitely looking for a one week fix here. Fortunately, there are a wealth of solid options,
including some that can be had well into the latest rounds of the draft. Also, there are a lot of
matchups of geographically close opponents, so travel may not be a big factor to make road
warriors more attractive. One could think that Jay Cutler (vs. DET) would be a great pairing
here, but watch out! Despite having two cracks a year against the pathetic Lions pass defense,
Cutler has only had one big game against them, and it was a garbage time game in week 17 of
2009. Ryan Tannehill (@ TB) is probably a better bet playing not too far from home and against
a poorer secondary even with Revis. Revis will likely shadow speedy Mike Wallace, but Tampa
got crushed by the TE in 2012, and Tannehill also has a new toy at that position to exploit. I also
like Sam Bradford (@ IND) against a revamped but as of this writing unproven secondary. Since
I think the game could be somewhat higher scoring for the Colts, Bradford might also be in
catch-up mode. Some deep round guys that could pay dividends for a one-week fix might be
Jake Locker (vs. JAX) or Christian Ponder (vs. WAS), who each will have the chance to exploit
burnable secondaries while having advantages in the WR-CB matchups.
Tony Romo (week 11)
As much as I think Tony Romo is unfairly criticized by the fans and media, I have to admit that I
would be nervous going into a season with him as my starter. So, I would look for a bye week
partner that has some potential to be more than a stop-gap bye week dude. Because of this, I
might consider Carson Palmer (@JAX) as the best option. Palmer also has some good matchups
when Romo has some tough ones, so this could be a platoon if you like. Jake Locker (@ IND)
also has a chance to have a big week; he has performed well in the past against Indy, and Britt
and Washington each have solid histories there as well. There are two scrubs that will be coming
off of byes, and also have choice matchups, starting with Brandon Weeden (@ CIN). While
Cinci has a solid defense, the CIN/CLE games have been track meets in recent years, so it is
possible. Also, the Jets come off a bye and go into Buffalo...and since the Jets have five really
tough games before the bye, it would not surprise me if this were the start of Geno Smith's
starting career with two weeks to prepare and the jets sporting at least a five-game losing streak.
I would also think about a one-week option of the Raiders QB in garbage time in Houston, but
your guess is as good as mine who that will be right now. Whoever it is will likely be on the
waiver wire and available if you need someone that week.
As you prepare your roster and make your draft strategy, the concept of backups is just one thing
to consider. One must decide if the preferred strategy is one of getting two good-to-great passers
and covering your butt in case of injury, or one of loading up at the other positions and picking a
QB#2 for just one week. If you feel comfortable with this second option....you just have to take
this article into the draft with you and then you can eschew the backup QB position until round
12 or later, improving your overall roster! But no matter what you do, it is important to see how
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the players on your roster mesh together to create something that is far more magical than the
mere sum of the parts.
~ end ~
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Player Percentage: Who's on the Field & Who Isn't?
July 26, 2013
by: John Holler
There are many factors that fantasy owners use to rate players, but one that is rarely used
– primarily because most fans don’t have access to it – is the player percentage. The PP numbers
list the number of plays that a given player is on the field in the course of a game. Some of the
numbers can be shocking – a wide receiver may only be on the field half as often as a teammate,
but has as many or more catches. That either means his coach or his quarterback has so much
confidence in that player that he gets targeted when he’s on the field. But, it could also be a
situation where the player on the field so much gets used so rarely.
The PP numbers can tell a fantasy owner willing to do his homework a lot about the use
of key fantasy players. Would you have rather have a featured back who is on the field 75
percent of the time or one that is on the field 50 percent of the time? Even if their numbers are
comparable in terms of carries and yards, the simple fact of the matter is that you don’t score
fantasy points from the bench. Why are we so down on the Carolina backfield? See the playtime
percentages of the Panther running backs. When healthy, it would appear the Panthers were
much more willing to give the ball to Jonathan Stewart in terms of PP numbers, but DeAngelo
Williams and Mike Tolbert were typically on the field so much that it negated much of Stewart’s
effectiveness.
The level to which you analyze these numbers is up to you. You can learn a lot about a
player and coaching staff by looking at the final few games for a team that had already been
eliminated from playoff contention. Did his playing drop when the games were meaningless?
Was a team taking a look at younger players to see what they have to offer for 2013? As you
make your draft list check out these numbers and see where the numbers speak loudly. Who will
Percy Harvin take time away from in the Seattle offense. Will Steven Jackson be a good fit in
Atlanta? Both will certainly be upgrades over what their new teams had last year, but will they
fill the need they were brought into accomplish?
Before you finalize you list, spend the time to examine the play percentage numbers
because they may tell the story behind the story as to why some fantasy players continue to be
consistent and dominant while others are much more hit and miss.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
Week 1 – (60 plays) Ryan Fitzpatrick (60/100), C.J. Spiller (42/70), Fred Jackson (15/25),
Tashard Choice (7/12), Stevie Johnson (58/97), Donald Jones (57/95), David Nelson (28/47),
Ruvell Martin (15/25), Scott Chandler (55/92), Lee. Smith (16/27)
Week 2 – (57 plays) Fitzpatrick (51/89), Spiller (38/67), Choice (14/25), Johnson (50/88), Jones
(50/88), T.J. Graham (29/51), Brad Smith (11/19), Chandler (54/95), L. Smith (14/25).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Fitzpatrick (72/100), Choice (54/75), Spiller (13/18), Johnny White (5/7),
Corey McIntyre (10/14), Johnson (69/96), Jones (69/96), Graham (39/54), B. Smith (23/32),
Chandler (53/74), L. Smith (25/35).
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Week 4 – (69 plays) Fitzpatrick (69/100), Jackson (34/49), Spiller (31/45), Choice (3/4), White
(1/1), Dorin Dickerson (19/28), McIntyre (3/4), Johnson (69/100), Graham (58/84), Jones
(51/74), B. Smith (26/38), Chandler (45/65), L. Smith (5/7).
Week 5 – (46 plays) Fitzpatrick (44/96), Tyler Thigpen (2/4), Spiller (25/54), Jackson (21/46),
McIntyre (1/2), Johnson (46/100), Jones (45/98), Graham (38/83), B. Smith (7/15), Chandler
(42/91), L. Smith (5/11).
Week 6 – (69 plays) Fitzpatrick (69/100), Jackson (40/58), Spiller (30/43), Choice (1/1),
(58/84), L. Smith (14/20)
Week 7 – (61 plays) Fitzpatrick (61/100), Jackson (37/61), Spiller (29/48) McIntyre (10/16),
Johnson (61/100), Jones (57/93), Graham (48/79), B. Smith (7/11), Chandler (48/79), L. Smith
(8/13)
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (57 plays) Fitzpatrick (57/100), Jackson (35/61), Spiller (26/46), Dickerson (7/12),
McIntyre (4/7), Jones (52/91), Johnson (46/81), Graham (33/58), Martin (11/19), B. Smith
(7/12), Chandler (55/96), L. Smith (9/16).
Week 10 – (77 plays) Fitzpatrick (77/100), Jackson (43/56), Spiller (36/47), Dickerson (4/5),
(64/83), L. Smith (19/25).
Week 11 – (67 plays) Fitzpatrick (67/100), Spiller (50/75), Choice (17/25), McIntyre (6/9),
Dickerson (4/6), Jones (65/97), Johnson (61/91), Graham (51/76), B. Smith (4/6), Chandler
(59/88), L. Smith (14/21).
Week 12 – (60 plays) Fitzpatrick (60/100), Jackson (32/53), Spiller (29/48), McIntyre (8/13),
Dickerson (2/3), Johnson (57/95), Jones (48/80), Graham (30/50), Martin (5/8), B. Smith (5/8),
Chandler (53/88), L. Smith (27/45)
Week 13 – (65 plays) Fitzpatrick (65/100), Jackson (45/69), Spiller (24/37), Choice (1/2),
McIntyre (7/11), T. Graham (53/82), Johnson (42/65), B. Smith (36/55), Martin (24/37), Marcus
Easley (4/6), Chandler (56/86), L. Smith (31/48).
Week 14 – (58 plays) Fitzpatrick (58/100), Spiller (31/53), Jackson (27/47), Choice (1/2),
(50/86), L. Smith (23/40)
Week 15 – (67 plays) Fitzpatrick (61/91), Thigpen (6/9), Spiller (55/82), Choice (12/18),
Dickerson (6/9), Graham (64/96), Johnson (61/91), B. Smith (51/76), Martin (14/21), Chandler
(55/82), L. Smith (17/25).
Week 16 – (68 plays) Fitzpatrick (68/100), Spiller (64/94), Choice (4/6), Dickerson (48/71),
Johnson (68/100), Graham (61/90), B. Smith (56/82), Martin (15/22), L. Smith (22/32), Chandler
(2/3).
Week 17 – (58 plays) Fitzpatrick (58/100), Spiller (48/83), Choice (10/17), McIntyre (10/17),
Johnson (53/91), Graham (52/90), B. Smith (51/88), Martin (23/40), L. Smith (37/64),
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Week 1 – (62 plays) Ryan Tannehill (62/100), Reggie Bush (47/76), Daniel Thomas (14/23),
Davone Bess (54/87), Brian Hartline (37/60), Anthony Armstrong (34/55), Legedu Naanee
(27/44), Anthony Fasano (53/85), Charles Clay (36/58).
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Week 2 – (75 plays) Tannehill (75/100), Bush (52/69), Lamar Miller (23/31), Jorvorskie Lane
(48/64), Bess (63/84), Hartline (59/79), Naanee (39/52), Marlon Moore (6/8), Fasano (60/80),
Clay (14/19), Jeron Mastrud (11/15).
Week 3 – (83 plays) Tannehill (83/100), Bush (17/20), Thomas (49/59), Miller (17/20), Lane
(20/24), Hartline (75/90), Bess (73/88), Armstrong (27/33), Naanee (18/22), Fasano (73/88),
Clay (36/43), Mastrud (10/12).
(35/45), Bess (67/87), Hartline (67/87), Naanee (37/48), Armstrong (6/8), Fasano (63/82), Clay
(21/27), Mastrud (12/16).
Week 5 – (66 plays) Tannehill (66/100), Bush (39/59), Thomas (27/41), Lane (36/55), Hartline
(58/88), Bess (54/82), Moore (19/29), Armstrong (1/2), Fasano (64/97), Clay (21/32), Mastrud
(6/9).
Week 6 – (54 plays) Tannehill (54/100), Bush (50/93), Miller (4/7), Lane (21/39), Bess (50/93),
Hartline (50/93), Moore (28/52), Armstrong (1/2), Fasano (49/91), Clay (12/22), Mastrud (4/7).
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (61 plays) Matt Moore (50/82), Tannehill (11/18), Thomas (41/67), Bush (20/33),
Lane (22/36), Hartline (50/82), Bess (49/80), Marlon Moore (13/21), Jabar Gaffney (11/18),
Fasano (59/97), Clay (29/48), Mastrud (9/15).
Week 9 – (63 plays) Tannehill (63/100), Thomas (33/52), Bush (28/44), Miller (2/3), Lane
(12/19), Bess (55/87), Hartline (54/86), Gaffney (27/43), Marlon Moore (9/14), Fasano (60/95),
Clay (34/54), Mastrud (1/2)
Week 10 – (60 plays) Tannehill (55/92), Matt Moore (5/8), D. Thomas (29/48), Bush (17/28),
Miller (14/23), Marcus Thigpen (2/3), Lane (9/15), Bess (52/87), Gaffney (52/87), Hartline
(50/83), Marlon Moore (10/17), Fasano (43/72), Clay (22/37)
Week 11 – (58 plays) Tannehill (58/100), Thomas (32/55), Bush (26/45), Lane (17/29), Bess
(55/95), Hartline (55/95), Rishard Matthews (21/36), Marlon Moore (15/26), Fasano (54/93),
Clay (15/26).
Week 12 – (60 plays) Tannehill (60/100), Bush (31/52), Thomas (29/48), Lane (15/25), Hartline
(54/90), Bess (53/88), Matthews (22/37), Marlon Moore (6/10), Fasano (50/83), Clay (37/62)
Week 13 – (62 plays) Tannehill (62/100), Bush (34/55), Thomas (27/44), Thigpen (1/2), Lane
(8/13), Bess (59/95), Hartline (56/90), Matthews (26/42), Marlon Moore (17/27), Fasano
(51/82), Clay (31/50)
(8/13), Hartline (57/93), Bess (56/92), Matthews (28/46), Moore (19/31), Fasano (58/95), Clay
(16/26).
Week 15 – (71 plays) Tannehill (71/100), Bush (46/65), Thigpen (27/38), Miller (18/25),
Thomas (7/10), Lane (27/38), Hartline (58/82), Moore (37/52), Matthews (28/39), Binns (10/14),
Fasano (64/90), Mastrud (24/34), Clay (9/13).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Tannehill (64/100), Bush (41/64), L. Miller (26/41), Lane (16/25),
Hartline (60/94), Matthews (47/73), Binns (37/58), Moore (14/22), Fasano (58/91), Mastrud
(12/19), Michael Egnew (8/12).
Week 17 – (59 plays) Tannehill (59/100), Bush (36/61), Miller (24/41), Lane (7/12), Hartline
(54/92), Binns (49/83), Moore (3/5), Fasano (41/69), Egnew (17/29), Mastrud (5/8).
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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Week 1 – (67 plays) Tom Brady (67/100), Stevan Ridley (40/60), Danny Woodhead (14/21),
Brandon Bolden (6/9), Lex Hilliard (5/7), Brandon Lloyd (57/85), Wes Welker (42/63), Julien
Edelman (23/34), Matthew Slater (2/3), Rob Gronkowski (66/99), Aaron Hernandez (66/99),
Michael Hoomanawanui (12/18).
Week 2 – (80 plays) Brady (80/100), Ridley (43/54), Woodhead (37/46), Hilliard (4/5), Lloyd
(80/100), Edelman (73/91), Welker (62/78), Gronkowski (79/99), Hernandez (3/4),
Hoomanawanui (19/24).
Week 3 – (82 plays) Brady (82/100), Woodhead (52/63), Ridley (25/30), Bolden (5/6), Welker
(73/89), Lloyd (65/79), Deion Branch (43/52), Edelman (37/45), Slater (2/2), Gronkowski
(82/100), Hoomanawanui (17/21), Daniel Fells (5/6), Kellen Winslow (4/5).
Week 4 – (77 plays) Brady (77/100), Ridley (34/44), Bolden (26/34), Woodhead (10/13), Shane
Vereen (8/10), Lloyd (76/99), Welker (74/96), Gronkowski (68/88), Fells (45/58),
Hoomanawanui (7/9).
Week 5 – (94 plays) Brady (94/100), Ridley (42/45), Bolden (25/27), Woodhead (19/20),
Vereen (7/7), Lloyd (88/94), Welker (84/89), Branch (61/65), Slater (3/3), Gronkowski (94/100),
Fells (38/40),
Week 6 – (86 plays) Brady (86/100), Ridley (35/41), Woodhead (29/34), Bolden (12/14), Slater
(1/1), Lloyd (81/94), Welker (76/88), Slater (2/2), Gronkowski (69/80), Hernandez (38/44), Fells
(18/21).
Week 7 – (79 plays) Brady (79/100), Woodhead (31/39), Ridley (31/39), Vereen (17/22), Lloyd
(68/86), Welker (63/80), Branch (25/32), Edelman (7/9), Gronkowski (76/96), Hernandez
(56/71), Fells (18/23), Hoomanawanui (3/4).
Week 8 – (71 plays) Brady (61/86), Ryan Mallett (10/14), Ridley (29/41), Vereen (22/34),
Woodhead (20/28), Lloyd (53/75), Welker (48/68), Branch (47/66), Edelman (24/34), Slater
(4/6), Gronkowski (54/76), Fells (25/35), Hoomamawanui (18/25),
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (72 plays) Brady (72/100), Ridley (41/57), Woodhead (16/22), Vereen (15/21),
Welker (64/89), Lloyd (57/79), Branch (56/78), Gronkowski (70/97), Visanthe Shiancoe (9/12),
Hoomanawanui (9/12), Fells (3/4).
Week 11 – (61 plays) Brady (58/95), Mallet (3/5), Ridley (32/52), Vereen (19/31), Woodhead
(11/18), Welker (57/93), Edelman (52/85), Lloyd (34/56), Greg Salas (6/10), Slater 93/5),
Gronkowski (50/82), Shiancoe (26/43), Hoomanawanui (15/25).
Week 12 – (68 plays) Brady (65/96), Mallett (3/4), Ridley (42/62), Vereen (16/24), Woodhead
(11/16), Welker (61/90), Lloyd (60/88), Edelman (14/21), Slater (8/12), Fells (57/84),
Hernandez (55/81), Hoomanawanui (5/7).
Week 13 – (81 plays) Brady (81/100), Ridley (40/49), Woodhead (27/33), Vereen (14/17),
Welker (77/95), Lloyd (60/74), Edelman (50/62), Slater (1/1), Hernandez (81/100), Fells (46/57),
Hoomanawanui (6/7).
Week 14 – (76 plays) Brady (68/89), Mallet (8/11), Ridley (31/41), Vereen (23/30), Woodhead
(17/22), Bolden (6/8)Welker (66/87), Lloyd (66/87), Stallworth (20/26), Slater (14/18),
Hernandez (68/89), Hoomanawanui (46/61), Fells (12/16), Shiancoe (11/14).
Week 15 – (94 plays) Brady (94/100), Woodhead (75/80), Ridley (18/19), Vereen (202), Lloyd
(93/99), Welker (87/93), Branch (53/56), Hernandez (94/100), Hoomanawanui (39/41), Fells
(8/9).
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Week 16 – (73 plays) Brady (73/100), Ridley (35/48), Woodhead (24/33), Bolden
Vereen (3/4) Lloyd (71/97), Welker (69/95), Branch (34/47), Aiken (3/4), Hernandez
Hoomanawanui (49/67), Fells (9/12).
Week 17 – (77 plays) Brady (77/100), Ridley (31/40), Woodhead (27/35), Vereen
Bolden (6/8), Welker (72/94), Branch (59/77), Lloyd (31/40), Slater (3/4), Hernandez
Hoomanawanui (45/58), Gronkowski (24/31), Fells (23/30).
(12/16),
(56/77),
(14/18),
(48/62),
NEW YORK JETS
Week 1 – (65 plays) Mark Sanchez (59/91), Tim Tebow (9/14), Shonn Greene (44/68), Bilal
Powell (19/29), Joe McKnight (3/5), John Connor (29/45), Santonio Holmes (43/66), Stephen
Hill (32/49), Chaz Schilens (31/48), Jeremy Kerley (22/34), Dustin Keller (29/45), Jeff
Cumberland (28/43), Konrad Reuland (22/34).
Week 2 – (57 plays) Sanchez (54/95), Tebow (3/5), Powell (32/56), Greene (24/42), McKnight
(1/2), Connor (15/26), Holmes (49/86), S. Hill (40/70), Kerley (24/42), Schilens (6/11), Clyde
Gates (6/11), Cumberland (41/72), Reuland (25/44), Dedrick Epps (6/11).
Week 3 – (82 plays) Sanchez (79/96), Tebow (12/15), Greene (50/61), Powell (36/44),
McKnight (3/4), Holmes (59/72), Schilens (40/49), Kerley (30/37), S. Hill (30/37), Gates
(10/12), Reuland (47/57), Cumberland (40/49), Epps (23/28).
Week 4 – (53 plays) Sanchez (50/94), Tebow (7/13), Powell (32/60), Greene (18/34), Connor
(6/11), Schilens (49/92), Holmes (37/70), Kerley (29/55), Gates (13/25), Patrick Turner (8/15),
Cumberland (40/75), Reuland (15/28), Epps (4/8).
Week 5 – (57 plays) Sanchez (53/93), Tebow (7/12), Powell (25/44), Greene (24/42), Lex
Hilliard (15/26), McKnight (9/16), Schilens (52/91), Kerley (44/77), S. Hill (21/37), Gates
(9/16), Cumberland (50/88), Reuland (17/30)
Week 6 – (64 plays) Sanchez (60/94), Tebow (6/9), Greene (42/66), Hilliard (22/34), Powell
(14/22), McKnight (7/11), Schilens (51/80), Kerley (40/62), S. Hill (18/28), Josh Hill (13/20),
Antonio Cromartie (1/2), Keller (48/75), Cumberland (36/56), Reuland (4/6)
Week 7 – (82 plays) Sanchez (81/99), Tebow (5/6), Greene (51/62), Hilliard (37/45), McKnight
(10/12), Jonathan Grimes (4/5), S. Hill (66/80), Kerley (62/76), Schilens (33/40), J. Hill (12/15),
Keller (75/91), Reuland (30/37), Cumberland (9/11).
Week 8 – (82 plays) Sanchez (82/100), Tebow (5/6), Greene (65/79), Hilliard (64/78), Grimes
(7/9), Schilens (35/43), Gates (34/41), Keller (78/95), Reuland (16/20), Hayden Smith (1/1).
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (52 plays) Sanchez (45/87), Tebow (8/15), Greene (36/69), Hilliard (19/37), Powell
(11/21), S. Hill (33/63), Kerley (28/54), Gates (26/50), Schilens (17/33), J. Hill (2/4), Keller
(44/85), Cumberland (23/44), Reuland (7/13).
Week 11 – (65 plays) Sanchez (62/95), Tebow (3/5), Hilliard (31/48), Powell (28/43), Greene
(26/40), McKnight (7/11), Gates (47/72), Schilens (37/57), S. Hill (23/45), Kerley (19/29),
Keller (44/68), Cumberland (33/51), Reuland (10/15).
Week 12 – (70 plays) Sanchez (70/100), Powell (36/51), Greene (31/44), Hilliard (13/19),
McKnight (3/4), S. Hill (45/64), Kerley (43/61), Schilens (38/54), Gates (29/41), Keller (61/87),
Cumberland (28/40), Reuland (12/17).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Sanchez (44/57), Greg McElroy (32/42), Greene (37/48), Powell (33/43),
Hilliard (25/32), McKnight (4/5), Kerley (50/65), S. Hill (49/64), Schilens (39/51), Cumberland
(51/66), Reuland (46/60), Keller (27/35).
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Week 14 – (64 plays) Sanchez (64/100), Powell (29/45), Greene (29/45), Hilliard (17/27),
Schilens (47/73), Kerley (46/72), Gilyard (20/31), Hill (12/19), Cumberland (47/73), Reuland
(41/64), Smith (10/16).
Week 15 – (68 plays) Sanchez (61/90), Tebow (7/10), Greene (32/47), Powell (28/41), Hilliard
(16/24), McKnight (8/12), Kerley (54/79), Braylon Edwards (41/60), Gilyard (23/34), Gates
(16/24), Schilens (10/15), Cumberland (62/91), Reuland (36/53).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Greg McElroy (58/95), Powell (31/51), Greene (30/49), Hilliard (17/28),
McKnight (1/2), Kerley (50/82), Edwards (45/74), Gates (26/43), Schilens (20/33), Jordan White
(3/5), Cumberland (49/80), Reuland (21/34), Smith (3/5).
Week 17 – (75 plays) Sanchez (74/99), Tebow (1/1), Powell (43/57), Hilliard (31/41), Greene
(29/39), McKnight (1/1), Kerley (57/76), Edwards (57/76), White (27/36), Gates (23/31),
Cumberland (56/75), Reuland (31/41), Smith (3/4).
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Joe Flacco (52/85), Ray Rice (42/69), Bernard Pierce (12/20), Anthony
Allen (6/10), Vontae Leach (22/36), Torrey Smith (50/82), Anquan Boldin (47/77), Jacoby Jones
(27/44), Deonte Thompson (9/15), Tandon Doss (8/13), Dennis Pitta (43/70), Ed Dickson
(38/62).
Week 2 – (69 plays) Flacco (69/100), Rice (62/90), Pierce (7/1), Leach (16/23), Boldin (65/94),
Smith (65/94), Jones (27/39), Doss (10/14), Pitta (50/72), Dickson (40/58).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Flacco (72/100), Rice (56/78), Pierce (15/21), Leach (34/47), Smith
(70/97), Boldin (65/90), Jones (30/42), Doss (8/11), Pitta (42/58), Dickson (39/54).
Week 4 – (82 plays) Flacco (82/100), Tyrod Taylor (1/1), Rice (71/87), Pierce (10/12), Leach
(32/39), Boldin (80/98), Smith (67/82), Jones (34/41), Doss (16/20), Pitta (57/70), Dickson
(40/49).
Week 5 – (56 plays) Flacco (56/100), Taylor (1/2), Rice (48/86), Pierce (6/11), Allen (1/2),
Leach (30/54), Smith (56/100), Boldin (50/89), Jones (17/30), Doss (5/9), Dickson (37/66), Pitta
(29/52).
Week 6 – (51 plays) Flacco (51/100), Rice (45/88), Pierce (5/10), Leach (22/43), Smith (45/88),
Boldin (44/86), Jones (18/35), Doss (3/6), Dickson (32/63), Pitta (30/59), Billy Bajema (6/12)
Week 7 – (61 plays) Flacco (61/100), Rice (53/87), Pierce (4/7), Allen (1/2), Leach (14/23),
Smith (61/100), Boldin (60/98), Jones (20/33), Doss (18/30), Pitta (43/70), Dickson (31/51).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (66 plays) Flacco (66/100), Taylor (1/2), Rice (53/80), Pierce (12/18), Leach (43/65),
Smith (65/98), Boldin (47/71), Jones (22/33), Doss (8/12), Dickson (42/64), Pitta (33/50).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Flacco (58/91), Taylor (6/9), Rice (40/62), Pierce (19/30), Leach (35/55),
Smith (50/78), Boldin (42/66), Doss (26/41), Jones (22/34), Dickson (45/70), Pitta (32/50)
(59/98), Boldin (53/88), Jones (14/23), Doss (11/18), Dickson (60/100), Bajema (6/10), Pitta
(1/2).
Week 12 – (93 plays) Flacco (93/100), Rice (79/85), Pierce (14/15), Leach (31/33), Boldin
(87/94), Smith (85/91), Jones (46/49), Doss (22/24), Pitta (81/87), Dickson (11/12), Bajema
(8/9).
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(59/97), Boldin (56/92), Jones (10/16), Doss (8/13), Pitta (35/57), Bajema (32/52).
(60/100), Boldin (58/97), Jones (12/20), Doss (9/15), Pitta (44/73), Bajema (18/30).
Week 15 – (65 plays) Flacco (65/100), Rice (55/85), Pierce (6/9), Allen (4/6), Leach (11/17),
Boldin (64/98), Jones (38/58), Smith (36/55), Doss (31/48), David Reed (14/22), Pitta (65/100),
Bajema (1/2)
Week 16 – (85 plays) Flacco (80/94), Taylor (5/6), Rice (58/68), Pierce (22/26), Allen (5/6),
Leach (48/56), Smith (75/88), Boldin (59/69), Jones (40/47), LaQuan Williams (5/6), Reed (2/2),
Dickson (48/56), Pitta (43/51), Bajema (15/18).
Week 17 – (85 plays) Taylor (69/81), Flacco (16/19), Pierce (45/53), Allen (31/36), Rice (9/11),
Leach (2/2), Thompson (76/89), Reed (69/81), Jones (49/58), Smith (16/19), Dickson (75/88),
Bajema (41/48), Pitta (11/13).
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Week 1 – (70 plays) Andy Dalton (65/93), Bruce Gradkowski (5/7), BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(52/74), Brian Leonard (14/20), Cedric Peerman (4/6), Chris Pressley (18/26), A.J. Green
(62/89), Armon Binns (54/77), Andrew Hawkins (35/50), Brandon Tate (15/21), Mohamed Sanu
(5/7), Jermaine Gresham (64/91), Orson Charles (11/16).
Week 2 – (66 plays) Dalton (66/100), Green-Ellis (51/77), Leonard (10/15), Peerman (2/3),
Pressley (15/23), Green (63/95), Binns (46/70), Hawkins (32/48), Tate (14/21), Marvin Jones
(12/18), Gresham (65/98), Charles (15/23)
Week 3 – (60 plays) Dalton (60/100), Green-Ellis (38/63), Leonard (10/17), Bernard Scott
(9/15), Pressley (11/18), Green (59/98), Binns (50/83), Hawkins (30/50), Tate (6/10), Sanu (4/7),
Gresham (58/97), Charles (21/35).
Pressley (20/31), Green (48/74), Binns (40/62), Hawkins (32/49), Tate (13/20), Jones (11/17),
Sanu (6/9), Gresham (56/86), Charles (22/34).
Week 5 – (68 plays) Dalton (68/100), Green-Ellis (30/44), Leonard (21/31), Scott (11/16),
Pressley (8/12), Green (67/99), Binns (53/78), Hawkins (44/65), Tate (17/25), Sanu (3/4),
Week 6 – (71 plays) Dalton (71/100), Peerman (33/46), Green-Ellis (32/45), Leonard (5/7),
Pressley (10/14), Green (71/100), Hawkins (51/72), Binns (40/56), Jones (15/21), Tate (13/18),
Gresham (69/97), Charles (14/20)
Week 7 – (50 plays) Dalton (50/100), Green Ellis (34/68), Peerman (4/8), Pressley (14/28), A.
Green (49/98), Ryan Whalen (33/66), Hawkins (20/40), Sanu (18/36), Tate (9/18), Gresham
(44/88), Charles (9/18).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (76 plays) Dalton (76/100), Green-Ellis (42/55), Leonard (29/38), Pressley (4/5),
Green (76/100), Tate (65/86), Hawkins (57/75), Sanu (12/16), Binns (6/8), Gresham (75/99),
Charles (14/18).
Pressley (15/25), Green (55/93), Sanu (36/61), Hawkins (24/41), Tate (21/36), Whalen (4/7),
Gresham (58/98), Charles (26/44)
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Week 11 – (71 plays) Dalton (71/100), Green-Ellis (48/68), Peerman (8/11), Leonard (6/8),
Pressley (10/14), Green (63/89), Sanu (63/89), Tate (34/48), Whalen (15/21), Binns (11/15),
Pressley (24/35), Green (59/87), Sanu (57/84), Tate (21/31), Jones (9/13), Whalen (4/6),
Pressley (13/17), Green (75/99), Jones (67/88), Hawkins (55/72), Whalen (7/9), Gresham
(76/100), Charles (9/12).
Week 14 – (62 plays) Dalton (62/100), Green-Ellis (42/68), Leonard (17/27), Pressley (17/27)
Green (61/98), Jones (57/92), Hawkins (42/68), Whalen (4/6), Tate (4/6), Gresham (61/98),
Charles (5/8).
Week 15 – (78 plays) Dalton (78/100), Green-Ellis (52/67), Leonard (18/23), Daniel Herron
(9/12), Pressley (5/6), Jones (65/83), Green (62/79), Hawkins (39/50), Tate (15/19), Whalen
(10/13), Gresham (77/99), Charles (31/40).
Week 16 – (65 plays) Dalton (65/100), Green-Ellis (46/71), Leonard (7/11), Conner (9/14),
Green (63/97), Jones (60/92), Hawkins (34/52), Whalen (15/23), Tate (1/2), Gresham (62/95),
Charles (25/38).
Week 17 – (51 plays) Dalton (26/51), Gradkowski (25/49), Leonard (27/53), Peerman (17/33),
Herron (6/12), Conner (15/29), Jones (48/94), Green (26/51), Hawkins (23/45), Tate (23/45),
Whalen (3/6), Gresham (35/69), Charles (31/61).
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Brandon Weeden (61/100), Trent Richardson (42/69), Brandon Jackson
(19/31), Mohamed Massaquoi (52/85), Greg Little (49/80), Josh Gordon (43/70), Travis
Benjamin (22/36), Joshua Cribbs (1/2), Alex Smith (28/46), Ben Watson (24/39)
Week 2 – (65 plays) Weeden (65/100), Richardson (46/71), Chris Ogbonnaya (20/31),
Massaquoi (57/88), Little (55/85), Gordon (34/52), Benjamin (18/28), Cribbs (4/6), Watson
(54/83), Smith (17/26).
Week 3 – (63 plays) Weeden (63/100), Richardson (48/76), Ogbonnaya (20/32), Owen Marecic
(9/14), Little (61/97), Benjamin (39/62), Gordon (37/59), Massaquoi (29/46), Cribbs (2/3),
Watson (61/97), Justin Cameron (20/32).
Week 4 – (71 plays) Weeden (71/100), Richardson (48/68), Ogbonnaya (25/35), Marecic
(18/25), Little (67/94), Benjamin (45/63), Jordan Norwood (37/52), Gordon (30/42), Cribbs
(6/8), Watson (51/72), Cameron (26/37).
Week 5 – (58 plays) Weeden (58/100), Richardson (49/84), Ogbonnaya (11/19), Montario
Hardesty (1/2), Marecic (14/24), Little (53/91), Gordon (50/86), Norwood (39/67), Cribbs
(8/14), Watson (47/81), Cameron (17/29).
Week 6 – (65 plays) Weeden (65/100), Hardesty (30/46), Richardson (27/42), Ogbonnaya
(9/14), Marecic (23/35), Little (59/91), Gordon (50/77), Josh Cooper (21/32), Cribbs (9/14),
Watson (57/88), Cameron (31/48), Smith (3/5)
Week 7 – (60 plays) Weeden (60/100), Hardesty (24/40), Ogbonnaya (21/35), Richardson
(16/27), Marecic (13/22), Gordon (56/93), Little (54/90), Cooper (25/42), Benjamin (12/20),
Cribbs (6/10), Watson (42/70), Cameron (28/47).
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Week 8 – (63 plays) Weeden (63/100), Richardson (50/79), Ogbonnaya (10/16), Hardesty (4/6),
Gordon (59/84), Little (58/92), Cooper (14/22), Cribbs (6/10), Benjamin (4/6), Watson (60/95),
Cameron (28/44), Smith (22/35)
Week 9 – (70 plays) Weeden (70/100), Richardson (64/91), Ogbonnaya (7/10), Gordon (65/93),
Little (55/79), Benjamin (21/30), Massaquoi (19/27), Cribbs (3/4), Watson (62/89), Smith
(28/40), Cameron (26/37).
Week 10 – BYE WEEK
Week 11 – (70 plays) Weeden (70/100), Richardson (62/89), Hardesty (6/9), Ogbonnaya (3/4),
Gordon (67/96), Massaquoi (16/23), Benjamin (10/14), Cooper (8/11), Cribbs (2/3), Watson
(63/90), Cameron (25/36), Smith (24/34).
Week 12 – (67 plays) Weeden (61/91), Colt McCoy (6/9), Richardson (65/97), Hardesty (2/3),
Gordon (61/91), Little (55/82), Massaquoi (19/28), Benjamin (18/27), Cribbs (2/3), Watson
(58/87), Cameron (27/40), Smith (24/36).
Week 13 – (68 plays) Weeden (68/100), Richardson (56/82), Hardesty (12/18), Gordon (63/93),
Little (56/82), Massaquoi (21/31), Benjamin (17/25), Watson (60/88), Cameron (32/47), Smith
(23/34).
Week 14 – (70 plays) Weeden (65/93), McCoy (5/7), Richardson (49/70), Hardesty (19/27),
Gordon (57/81), Little (56/80), Massaquoi (20/29), Benjamin (5/7), Cribbs (4/6), Watson
(60/86), Smith (37/53), Cameron (36/51),
Week 15 – (53 plays) Weeden (53/100), Richardson (37/70), Hardesty (11/21), Ogbonnaya
(3/6), Gordon (52/98), Little (45/85), Massaquoi (19/36), Benjamin (9/17), Cribbs (3/6), Watson
(45/85), Cameron (22/42), Smith (18/34).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Weeden (36/56), McCoy (28/44), Richardson (43/67), Hardesty (14/22),
Brad Smelley (10/16), Ogbonnaya (7/11), Marecic (1/2), Little (62/97), Gordon (61/95),
Benjamin (40/62), Cooper (4/6), Cribbs (2/3), Watson (60/94), Smith (16/25).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Thaddeus Lewis (62/98), Josh Johnson (1/2), Hardesty (35/56),
Ogbonnaya (16/25), Smelley (16/25), Brandon Jackson (12/19), Little (58/92), Benjamin
(38/60), Gordon (30/48), Cooper (14/22), Cribbs (3/5), Watson (61/97), Smith (31/49).
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Week 1 – (76 plays) Ben Roethlisberger (76/100), Jonathan Dwyer (39/51), Isaac Redman
(22/29), Chris Rainey (10/13), Baron Batch (10/13), Andre Brown (68/89), Mike Wallace
(65/86), Emmanuel Sanders (55/72), Heath Miller (75/99)
Week 2 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Redman (24/38), Dwyer (22/34), B. Batch (10/16),
Rainey (9/14), Will Johnson (23/36), Brown (39/61), Sanders (38/59), Wallace (38/59), Jericho
Cotchery (10/16), Miller (64/100), Leonard Pope (27/42), David Paulson (15/23).
Week 3 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Redman (29/40), B. Batch (27/37), Rainey (9/12),
Dwyer (8/11), Johnson (16/22), Wallace (65/89), Brown (63/86), Sanders (52/71), Cotchery
(5/7), Miller (73/100), Pope (12/16), Paulson (5/7).
Week 4 – BYE WEEK
Week 5 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Redman (34/47), Rashard Mendenhall (22/30),
Rainey (18/25), Johnson (27/37), Wallace (62/85), Brown (60/82), Sanders (47/64), Cotchery
(9/12), H. Miller (73/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1).
Week 6 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Charlie Batch (25/39), Redman (17/27),
Mendenhall (16/25), Rainey (4/6), Johnson (24/38), Brown (50/78), Wallace (50/78), Sanders
(43/67), Cotchery (10/16), Miller (64/100), Paulson (14/22)
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Week 7 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Dwyer (46/63), Rainey (19/26), B. Batch (8/11),
Johnson (21/29), Wallace (59/81), Brown (57/78), Sanders (47/64), Cotchery (15/21), Miller
(73/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1)
Week 8 – (61 plays) Roethlisberger (61/100), Dwyer (38/62), B. Batch (11/18), Rainey (11/18),
Johnson (22/36), Wallace (49/80), Sanders (43/70), Brown (42/69), Cotchery (3/5), Miller
(61/100), Paulson (21/34), Pope (4/7).
Week 9 – (70 plays) Roethlisberger (70/100), Redman (53/76), Rainey (11/16), B. Batch (3/4),
Johnson (32/46), Sanders (55/79), Wallace (54/77), Cotchery (42/60), Brown (10/14), Miller
(66/94), Paulson (21/30), Pope (2/3)
Week 10 – (65 plays) Roethlisberger (33/51), Byron Leftwich (32/49), Dwyer (40/62), Redman
(23/35), Rainey (2/3), Johnson (30/46), Wallace (65/100), Sanders (47/72), Cotchery (35/54),
Miller (62/95), Paulson (20/31), Pope (1/2).
Week 11 – (72 plays) Leftwich (72/100), Dwyer (33/46), Mendenhall (29/40), Redman (5/7), B.
Batch (3/4), Rainey (2/3), Johnson (32/44), Sanders (64/89), Wallace (59/82), Cotchery (39/54),
David Gilreath (3/4), Miller (72/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1).
Week 12 – (63 plays) C. Batch (63/100), Dwyer (19/30), Rainey (18/29), Mendenhall (8/13),
Redman (5/8), Johnson (32/51), Wallace (58/92), Sanders (53/84), Gilreath (21/33), Plaxico
Burress (11/17), Miller (63/100), Paulson (26/41), Pope (1/2).
Week 13 – (66 plays) C. Batch (66/100), Dwyer (40/61), Redman (22/33), Rainey (2/3), Johnson
(28/42), Brown (51/77), Sanders (48/73), Wallace (41/62), Burress (1/2), Miller (66/100),
Paulson (28/42), Pope (3/5).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Roethisberger (65/100), Dwyer (23/35), Rainey (21/32), Redman (17/26),
Johnson (9/14), Brown (61/94), Wallace (61/94), Sanders (41/63), Cotchery (12/18), Burress
(7/11), Miller (65/100), Paulson (8/12).
Week 15 – (61 plays) Roethlisberger (61/100), Dwyer (24/39), Redman (20/33), Rainey (14/23),
Johnson (13/21), Wallace (58/95), Brown (55/90), Cotchery (29/48), Sanders (11/18), Miller
(59/97), Paulson (21/34), Pope (1/2).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Dwyer (23/36), Redman (22/34), Mendenhall
(16/25), Rainey (3/5), Johnson (24/38), Brown (54/84), Wallace (51/80), Sanders (31/48),
Cotchery (14/22), Miller (59/92), Paulson (23/36),
Week 17 – (57 plays) Roethlisberger (57/100), Dwyer (25/44), Redman (16/28), Mendenhall
(13/23), Rainey (3/5), Sanders (47/82), Brown (44/77), Cotchery (29/51), Burress (15/26), Ryan
Clark (2/3), Paulson (54/95), Pope (12/21).
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
Week 1 – (69 plays) Matt Schaub (69/100), Arian Foster (49/71), Ben Tate (21/30), James Casey
(51/74), Andre Johnson (54/78), Kevin Walter (48/70), Keshawn Martin (10/14), Lester Jean
(10/14), Owen Daniels (59/86), Garrett Graham (42/61).
Week 2 – (85 plays) Schaub (85/100), Foster (55/65), Tate (22/26), Forsett (8/9), Casey (47/55),
Johnson (61/72), Walter (54/64), K. Martin (35/41), Jean (23/27), Daniels (62/73), Graham
(47/55).
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Week 3 – (68 plays) Schaub (67/99), T.J. Yates (1/1), Foster (53/78), Tate (15/22), Casey
(37/54), Johnson (54/79), Walter (47/69), Martin (21/31), Jean (13/19), Daniels (62/91), Graham
(38/56)
Week 4 – (60 plays) Schaub (60/100), Foster (46/77), Tate (12/20), Justin Forsett (2/3), Casey
(33/55), Tyler Clutts (2/3), Johnson (45/75), Walter (39/65), Martin (22/37), DeVier Posey
(14/23), Daniels (49/82), Graham (33/55).
Week 5 – (66 plays) Schaub (66/100), Foster (55/83), Forsett (11/17), Casey (36/55), Johnson
(57/86), Walter (4/67), Martin (18/27), Posey (8/12), Daniels (61/92), Graham (40/61).
Week 6 – (71 plays) Schaub (62/87), Yates (9/13), Foster (45/63), Forsett (16/23), Tate (6/8),
Casey (22/31), Clutts (3/4), Johnson (57/80), Walter (51/72), Martin (35/49), Jean (13/18), Posey
(9/13), Daniels (57/80), Graham (38/54)
Week 7 – (80 plays) Schaub (80/100), Foster (56/70), Tate (16/20), Forsett (7/9), Casey (30/38),
Clutts (6/8), Johnson (69/86), Walter (56/70), Martin (21/26), Posey (14/18), Jean (10/12),
Daniels (59/74), Graham (53/66).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
(60/94), Walter (57/89), Martin (13/20), Jean (3/5), Daniels (44/69), Graham (39/61).
Week 10 – (63 plays) Schaub (63/100), Foster (57/90), Forsett (6/10), Casey (46/73), Clutts
(5/8), Johnson (59/94), Walter (53/84), Martin (7/11), Jean (6/10), Posey (5/8), Graham (56/89).
Week 11 – (94 plays) Schaub (94/100), Foster (65/69), Forsett (16/17), Casey (38/40), Clutts
(1/1), Johnson (87/93), Walter (81/86), Jean (29/31), Martin (23/24), Daniels (77/82), Graham
(47/50).
(71/90), Walter (62/78), Martin (21/27), Jean (16/20), Graham (54/68), Daniels (44/56),
Week 13 – (73 plays) Schaub (73/100), Foster (46/63), Forsett (18/25), Tate (5/7), Casey
(54/74), Johnson (70/96), Walter (63/86), Martin (19/26), Jean (9/12), Daniels (66/90), Graham
(15/21).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Schaub (59/86), Yates (10/14), Foster (42/61), Tate (19/28), Casey
(50/72), Clutts (7/10), Johnson (55/80), Walter (45/65), Jean (26/38), Martin (17/25), Posey
(14/20), Daniels (59/86),
Week 15 – (69 plays) Schaub (69/100), Foster (61/88), Tate (8/12), Casey (24/35), Johnson
(69/100), Walter (38/55), Posey (35/51), Jean (12/17), Martin (1/1), Daniels (56/81), Graham
(41/59).
Week 16 – (56 plays) Schaub (53/95), Yates (3/5), Foster (31/55), Tate (17/30), Forsett (7/12),
Casey (13/23), Johnson (49/88), Walter (43/77), Posey (28/50), Jean (4/7), Daniels (51/91),
Graham (35/62).
Week 17 – (62 plays) Schaub (62/100), Foster (60/97), Tate (2/3), Casey (24/39), Johnson
(59/95), Walter (38/61), Posey (33/53), Jean (2/3), Martin (1/2), Daniels (58/94), Graham
(33/53).
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Week 1 – (66 plays) Andrew Luck (66/100), Donald Brown (28/42), Mewelde Moore (19/29),
Vick Ballard (11/17), Reggie Wayne (60/91), Donnie Avery (66/100), Kris Adams (43/65),
LaVon Brazill (8/12), Coby Fleener (54/82), Dwayne Allen (36/55)
Week 2 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Brown (32/48), Ballard (14/21), Moore (13/19), Wayne
(61/91), Avery (62/93), K. Adams (39/58), Fleener (50/75), Allen (47/70), D. Jones (8/12).
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Week 3 – (80 plays) Luck (80/100), D. Brown (41/51), Moore (21/26), Ballard (10/12), Wayne
(70/88), Avery (78/98), T.Y. Hilton (39/49), Austin Collie (14/18), Adams (12/15), Allen
(59/74), Fleener (43/54), Dominique Jones (13/16).
Week 4 – BYE WEEK
Week 5 – (96 plays) Luck (96/100), Brown (68/71), Ballard (22/23), Delone Carter (1/1), Avery
(94/98), Wayne (90/94), Hilton (73/76), Brazill (12/12), Palmer (2/2), D. Allen (57/59), Fleener
(53/55), D. Jones (7/7)
Week 6 – (71 plays) Luck (71/100), M. Moore (29/41), Ballard (29/41), D. Carter (6/8), Wayne
(69/97), Avery (67/94), Hilton (51/72), Brazill (14/20), Nathan Palmer (6/8), Allen (35/49),
Fleener (35/49)
Week 7 – (72 plays) Luck (72/100), Ballard (40/56), Carter (19/26), Moore (11/15), Wayne
(72/100), Avery (59/82), Hilton (44/61), Brazill (7/10), Allen (57/79), Fleener (35/49), Weslye
Saunders (12/17).
Week 8 – (76 plays) Luck (76/100), Ballard (32/42), Brown (29/38), Moore (12/16), Carter
(2/3), Avery (71/93), Wayne (68/89), Hilton (50/66), Brazill (8/11), Allen (63/83), Fleener
(18/24), Saunders (15/20)
Week 9 – (80 plays) Luck (80/100), Ballard (54/68), Carter (15/19), Robert Hughes (6/8),
Brown (3/4), Wayne (78/98), Hilton (57/71), Avery (50/62), Brazill (26/32), Allen (73/91),
Saunders (29/36).
Week 10 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Ballard (33/49), Brown (28/42), Hughes (7/10), Carter
(3/4), Wayne (51/76), Avery (50/75), Hilton (30/45), Brazill (17/25), Allen (66/99), Saunders
(33/49)
Week 11 – (78 plays) Luck (78/100), Ballard (46/59), Brown (19/24), Carter (9/12), Hughes
(4/5), Wayne (73/94), Hilton (56/72), Brazill (41/53), Avery (34/44), Palmer (8/10), Allen
(70/90), Saunders (20/26), Kyle Miller (3/4).
Week 12 – (73 plays) Luck (73/100), Ballard (38/52), Brown (27/37), Hughes (6/8), Avery
(71/97), Wayne (64/88), Hilton (39/53), Brazill (15/21), Allen (69/95), Saunders (29/40).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Luck (77/100), Ballard (42/55), Brown (24/31), Wayne (77/100), Avery
(76/99), Hilton (68/88), Brazill (18/23), Allen (56/73), Fleener (23/30), Saunders (1/1).
Week 14 – (70 plays) Luck (70/100), Ballard (47/67), Carter (9/13), Hughes (5/7), Avery
(64/91), Wayne (59/84), Hilton (46/66), Brazill (14/20), Allen (58/83), Fleener (32/46), Saunders
(14/20).
Week 15 – (61 plays) Luck (61/100), Ballard (47/77), Moore (12/20), Wayne (60/98), Avery
Week 16 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Ballard (58/87), Moore (5/7), Avery (63/94), Wayne
Week 17 – (68 plays) Luck (68/100), Ballard (57/84), Moore (6/9), Wayne (65/96), Avery
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Week 1 – (79 plays) Blaine Gabbert (79/100), Maurice Jones-Drew (48/61), Greg Jones (34/43),
Rashad Jennings (18/23), Jalen Parmele (3/4), Justin Blackmon (75/95), Laurent Robinson
(74/94), Mike Thomas (42/53), Cecil Shorts (14/18), Marcedes Lewis (53/67)
Week 2 – (43 plays) Gabbert (38/88), Chad Henne (5/12), Jones-Drew (39/91), Jones (13/30),
Montell Owens (6/14), Robinson (38/88), Blackmon (36/84), Thomas (20/47), Shorts (10/23),
Lewis (38/88), Zach Potter (15/35).
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Week 3 – (60 plays) Gabbert (60/100), Jones-Drew (58/97), Parmele (3/5), Jones (27/45),
Owens (9/15), Blackmon (48/80), L. Robinson (5/8), Kevin Elliott (41/68), Shorts (20/33),
Thomas (15/25), Lewis (54/90), Potter (20/33).
Week 4 – (60 plays) Gabbert (60/100), Jones-Drew (44/73), Jennings (19/32), Parmele (1/2),
Jones (24/40), Blackmon (52/87), Thomas (29/48), Shorts (27/45), Elliott (25/42), Lewis
(34/57), Potter (15/25), Maurice Stovall (3/5)
Week 5 – (58 plays) Gabbert (58/100), Jones-Drew (49/84), Jennings (10/17), Parmele (2/3),
Jones (10/17), Owens (2/3), Blackmon (55/95), Thomas (46/79), Elliott (34/59), Shorts (15/26),
Lewis (48/83), Potter (12/21), Stovall (2/3).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (64 plays) Henne (36/56), Gabbert (27/42), Jennings (62/97), Parmele (8/12), JonesDrew (2/3), Jones (18/28), Shorts (62/97), Blackmon (50/78), Thomas (30/47), Elliott (11/17),
Lewis (52/81), Potter (17/27), Stovall (9/14).
Week 8 – (77 plays) Gabbert (77/100), Jennings (72/94), Parmele (7/9), Jones (14/18), Shorts
(74/96), Blackmon (71/92), Thomas (51/66), Elliott (11/14), Michael Spurlock (4/5), Lewis
(65/84), Potter (10/13), Stovall (3/4).
Week 9 – (62 plays) Gabbert (62/100), Jennings (40/65), Parmele (26/42), Will Ta’ufo’ou
(8/13), Shorts (60/97), Blackmon (58/94), Robinson (45/73), Spurlock (17/27), Lewis (47/76),
Potter (7/11).
Week 10 – (70 plays) Gabbert (50/71), Henne (20/29), Jennings (40/57), Parmele (27/39),
Tu’ufo’ou (3/4), Owens (6/9), Blackmon (69/99), Shorts (69/99), Robinson (57/81), Spurlock
(32/46), Lewis (41/59), Potter (3/4), Stovall (1/1)
Week 11 – (66 plays) Henne (61/92), Gabbert (5/8), Parmele (61/92), Ta’ufo’ou (18/27),
Jennings (7/11), Shorts (63/95), Blackmon (52/79), Robinson (19/29), Spurlock (15/23), Lewis
(57/86), Potter (20/30), Stovall (1/2)
Week 12 – (64 plays) Henne (64/10), Jennings (47/73), Tu’ufo’ou (16/25), Parmele (16/25),
Owens (5/8), Shorts (56/88), Blackmon (55/86), Spurlock (23/36), Jordan Shipley (8/12), Elliott
(7/11), Lewis (57/89), Potter (15/23), Stovall (2/3)
Week 13 – (72 plays) Henne (72/100), Jennings (16/22), Richard Murphy (6/8), Owens (54/75),
Jones (14/19), Blackmon (66/92), Shorts (54/75), Shipley (44/61), Elliott (30/42), Quan Cosby
(1/1), Lewis (57/79), Potter (13/18), Stovall (1/1).
Week 14 – (72 plays) Henne (72/100), Murphy (10/14), Todman (7/10), Owens (49/68), Jones
(27/38), Blackmon (72/100), Elliott (56/78), Shipley (40/56), Clemons (18/25), Lewis (53/74),
Potter (16/22).
Week 15 – (63 plays) Henne (63/100), Murphy (12/19), Ta’ufo’ou (3/5), Owens (44/70), Jones
(25/40), Shorts (63/100), Blackmon (57/90), Shipley (37/59), Clemons (11/17), Lewis (48/76),
Potter (7/11).
Week 16 – (79 plays) Henne (79/100), Murphy (25/32), Owens (45/57), Jones (16/20),
Blackmon (75/95), Shorts (69/87), Shipley (62/78), Clemons (18/23), Mike Brown (6/8), Lewis
(64/81), Potter (8/10), Isaiah Stanback (6/8).
Week 17 – (74 plays) Henne (74/100), Keith Toston (49/66), Murphy (16/22), Jones (17/23),
Blackmon (74/100), Clemons (67/91), Brown (7/9), Jerell Jackson (4/5), Lewis (64/86), Potter
(5/7), Stanback (3/4).
TENNESSEE TITANS
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Week 1 – (65 plays) Jake Locker (50/77), Matt Hasselbeck (15/23), Chris Johnson (48/74),
Darius Reynaud (18/28), Jamie Harper (4/6), Quinn Johnson (10/15), Kendall Wright (52/80),
Damian Williams (50/77), Nate Washington (45/69), Lavelle Hawkins (19/29), Jared Cook
(60/92), Craig Stevens (11/17), Taylor Thompson (8/12).
Week 2 – (42 plays) Locker (42/100), C. Johnson (41/98), Reynaud (1/2), Q. Johnson (3/7),
Williams (39/93), Wright (34/81), Washington (22/52), Kenny Britt (19/45), Cook (35/83),
Stevens (14/33), Thompson (2/5).
Week 3 – (63 plays) Locker (63/100), C. Johnson (50/79), Reynaud (7/11), Harper (1/2), Q.
Johnson (12/19), Washington (58/92), Wright (47/75), Britt (37/59), Williams (29/46), Cook
(18/29), Stevens (49/78), Thompson (7/7).
Week 4 – (62 plays) Hasselbeck (55/89), Locker (7/11), C. Johnson (49/79), Javon Ringer
(9/15), Reynaud (3/5), Washington (58/94), Wright (53/85), Williams (42/68), Hawkins (8/13),
Stevens (39/63), Cook (24/39), Thompson (18/29).
Week 5 – (71 plays) Hasselbeck (63/89), Rusty Smith (7/10), C. Johnson (48/68), Ringer
(15/21), Reynaud (7/10), Q. Johnson (11/15), Washington (67/94), Williams (47/66), Wright
(47/66), Britt (28/39), Cook (43/61), Stevens (25/35), Thompson (15/21).
Week 6 – (71 plays) Hasselbeck (71/100), C. Johnson (62/87), Reynaud (5/7), Harper (3/4), Q.
Johnson (23/32), Washington (55/77), Britt (45/63), Wright (31/44), Williams (26/37), Cook
(44/62), Thompson (15/21).
Week 7 – (64 plays) Hasselbeck (64/100), C. Johnson (44/69), Harper (10/16), Reynaud (9/14),
Q. Johnson (24/38), Washington (51/80), Britt (44/69), Wright (30/47), Williams (19/30),
Week 8 – (59 plays) Hasselbeck (59/100), C. Johnson (51/86), Harper (4/7), Reynaud (2/3), Q.
Johnson (25/42), Washington (43/73), Britt (38/64), Wright (30/51), Williams (17/29), Hawkins
(2/3), Stevens (42/71), Cook (25/42), Thompson (16/27)
Week 9 – (57 plays) Hasselbeck (57/100), C. Johnson (52/91), Reynaud (3/5), Harper (2/4), Q.
Johnson (16/28), Washington (45/79), Britt (43/75), Wright (27/47), Williams (24/42), Cook
(35/61), Stevens (28/49), Thompson (10/18).
Week 10 – (61 plays) Locker (50/82), Hasselbeck (11/18), C. Johnson (49/80), Reynaud (10/16),
Harper (2/3), Q. Johnson (24/39), Washington (42/69), Britt (33/54), Williams (27/44), Wright
(25/41), Stevens (46/75), Thompson (24/39), Cook (23/38).
Week 12 – (71 plays) Locker (71/100), C. Johnson (53/75), Reynaud (16/23), Q. Johnson
(17/24), Washington (57/80), Britt (54/76), Wright (39/55), Williams (25/35), Cook (46/65),
Stevens (37/52), Thompson (11/15).
Week 13 – (75 plays) Locker (75/100), C. Johnson (72/96), Reynaud (3/4), Q. Johnson (4/5),
Washington (68/91), Britt (66/88), Wright (54/72), Williams (14/19), Cook (64/85), Stevens
(21/28), Thompson (9/12).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Locker (65/100), C. Johnson (62/95), Reynaud (2/3), Harper (1/2), Q.
Johnson (19/29), Washington (57/88), Britt (52/80), Wright (37/57), Michael Preston (12/18),
Week 15 – (59 plays) Locker (59/100), C. Johnson (58/98), Harper (1/2), Q. Johnson (21/36),
Britt (52/88), Washington (44/75), Wright (22/37), Preston (15/25), Hawkins (4/7), Stevens
(59/100), Thompson (19/32).
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Week 16 – (59 plays) Locker (59/100), C. Johnson (37/63), Harper (22/37), Q. Johnson (12/20),
Britt (54/92), Washington (47/80), Williams (22/37), Preston (19/32), Hawkins (12/20), Stevens
(49/83), Thompson (21/36).
Week 17 – (54 plays) Locker (54/100), C. Johnson (39/72), Collin Mooney (10/19), Reynaud
(4/7), Q. Johnson (23/43), Britt (35/65), Washington (31/57), Wright (30/56), Preston (15/28),
Hawkins (6/11), Thompson (53/98), Brandon Barden (23/43).
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
Week 1 – (58 plays) Peyton Manning (58/100), Willis McGahee (40/69), Knowshon Moreno
(16/28), Lance Ball (2/3), Demaryius Thomas (54/93), Eric Decker (53/91), Brandon Stokley
(15/26), Matthew Willis (4/7), Joel Dreessen (50/86), Jacob Tamme (48/83).
Week 2 – (73 plays) Manning (73/100), McGahee (49/63), Ball (13/18), Moreno (11/15),
Thomas (73/100), Decker (70/96), Stokley (59/81), Willis (7/10), Dreessen (57/78), Tamme
(25/34).
Week 3 – (81 plays) Manning (81/100), Ball (41/51), McGahee (28/35), Ronnie Hillman
(12/15), Chris Gronkowski (5/6), Decker (78/96), Thomas (78/96), Stokley (51/63), Willis (5/6),
Tamme (56/69), Dreessen (50/62).
Week 4 – (80 plays) Manning (79/99), Brock Osweiler (1/1), McGahee (36/45), Ball (22/28),
Hillman (21/26), Gronkowski (5/6), Decker (75/94), Thomas (74/92), Stokley (35/44), Andre
Caldwell (30/38), Dreessen (58/72), Tamme (43/54), Julius Thomas (1/1).
Week 5 – (67 plays) Manning (67/100), McGahee (42/63), Ball (9/13), Hillman (5/7),
Gronkowski (4/6), Decker (64/96), Thomas (60/90), Stokley (51/76), Willis (11/16), Caldwell
(1/1), Dreessen (43/64), Tamme (43/64), Virgil Green (1/1).
Week 6 – (56 plays) Manning (56/100), McGahee (46/82), Hillman (9/16), Ball (1/2),
Gronkowski (3/5), Thomas (54/96), Decker (51/91), Stokley (32/57), Willis (4/7), Dreessen
(39/70), Tamme (36/64), Green (5/9)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (74 plays) Manning (71/96), Osweiler (3/4), McGahee (43/58), Hillman (27/36), Ball
(3/4), Gronkowski (4/5), Decker (68/92), Thomas (62/84), Stokley (26/35), Willis (10/14),
Dreessen (67/91), Green (34/46), Tamme (25/34).
Week 9 – (63 plays) Manning (63/100), McGahee (50/79), Hillman (13/21), Ball (1/2),
Gronkowski (2/3), Thomas (58/92), Decker (56/89), Stokley (34/54), Willis (12/19), Dreessen
(47/75), Tamme (28/44), Green (13/21).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Manning (64/100), McGahee (43/67), Hillman (18/28), Gronkowski (2/3),
Decker (63/98), Thomas (60/94), Stokley (47/73), Willis (7/11), Trindon Holliday (3/5),
Dreessen (46/72), Tamme (21/33), Green (10/16).
Week 11 – (70 plays) Manning (70/100), Hillman (32/46), Ball (21/30), McGahee (14/20),
Gronkowski (1/1), Decker (67/96), Thomas (65/93), Stokley (58/83), Willis (13/19), Dreessen
(48/69), Tamme (26/37), Green (5/7).
Week 12 – (64 plays) Manning (64/100), Moreno (55/86), Hillman (7/11), Ball (1/2), Decker
(63/98), Thomas (62/97), Stokley (52/81), Willis (10/16), Holliday (2/3), Dreessen (43/67),
Tamme (23/36), V. Green (1/2).
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Week 13 – (75 plays) Manning (75/100), Moreno (63/84), Hillman (9/12), Ball (3/4),
Gronkowski (3/4), Thomas (70/93), Decker (67/89), Willis (22/29), Dreessen (68/91), Tamme
(56/75), Green (8/11).
Week 14 – (84 plays) Manning (84/100), Moreno (67/80), Hillman (15/18), Ball (1/1),
Gronkowski (4/5), Decker (79/94), Thomas (62/74), Stokley (30/36), Willis (27/32), Caldwell
(27/32), Holliday (1/1), Dreessen (59/70), Tamme (29/35), Green (14/17).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Manning (74/96), Osweiler (3/4), Moreno (42/55), Hillman (22/29),
Hester (16/21), Thomas (70/91), Decker (68/88), Stokley (26/34), Willis (13/17), Holliday (1/1),
Dreessen (68/88), Green (43/56), Tamme (11/14).
Week 16 – (82 plays) Manning (75/91), Osweiler (7/9), Moreno (58/71), Hillman (13/16),
Decker (73/89), Thomas (66/80), Stokley (58/71), Willis (28/34), Dreessen (60/73), Tamme
(27/33), Green (10/12).
Week 17 – (78 plays) Manning (59/76), Osweiler (19/24), Ball (26/33), Moreno (26/33),
Hillman (6/8), Hester (24/31), Mitch Unrein (3/4), Decker (55/71), Thomas (53/68), Willis
(26/33), Stokley (23/29), Caldwell (17/22), Dreessen (62/79), Tamme (34/44), Green (32/41).
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Week 1 – (69 plays) Matt Cassel (69/100), Jamaal Charles (29/42), Shaun Draughn (22/32),
Peyton Hillis (19/28), Dwayne Bowe (60/87), Dexter McCluster (57/83), Steve Breaston (52/75),
Jon Baldwin (22/32), Tony Moeaki (45/65), Kevin Boss (32/46)
Week 2 – (73 plays) Cassel (73/100), Charles (20/27), Hillis (32/44), Draughn (26/36), Bowe
(71/97), Breaston (40/55), McCluster (32/44), Terrance Copper (4/5), Moeaki (66/90), Boss
(17/23), Jake O’Connell (9/12).
Week 3 – (94 plays) Cassel (94/100), Charles (66/70), Nate Eachus (32/34), Draughn (22/23),
Hillis (9/10), Bowe (89/95), Baldwin (59/63), Breaston (47/50), McCluster (23/24), Copper
(8/9), Moeaki (93/99), Steve Maneri (22/23).
Week 4 – (72 plays) Cassel (72/100), Charles (42/58), Draughn (23/32), Eachus (17/24), Cyrus
Gray (10/14), Bowe (68/94), Baldwin (54/75), McCluster (46/64), Breaston (14/19), Copper
(3/4), Moeaki (63/88), Maneri (20/28).
Week 5 – (71 plays) Cassel (62/87), Brady Quinn (9/13), Charles (40/56), Draughn (24/34),
Cyrus Gray (8/11), Eachus (4/6), Bowe (69/97), McCluster (31/44), Breaston (6/8), Copper
(2/3), Moeaki (66/93), Maneri (51/72).
Week 6 – (69 plays) Quinn (69/100), Draughn (32/46), Eachus (28/41), Charles (28/41), Bowe
(61/88), Baldwin (42/61), McCluster (37/54), Copper (8/12), Breaston (4/6), Moeaki (65/94),
Maneri (38/55)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (62 plays) Cassel (51/82), Quinn (11/18), Charles (32/52), Draughn (18/29), Hillis
(13/21), Eachus (5/8), Bowe (61/98), McCluster (47/76), Baldwin (23/37), Breaston (23/37),
Copper (5/8), Moeaki (61/98), O’Connell (14/23)
Week 9 – (62 plays) Cassel (62/100), Charles (28/45), Hillis (28/45), Draughn (6/10), Bowe
(54/87), McCluster (48/77), Baldwin (20/32), Breaston (15/24), Copper (14/23), Moeaki (60/97),
Maneri (20/32), O’Connell (10/16).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Cassel (64/100), Charles (43/67), Hillis (21/33), Eachus (18/28), Bowe
(62/97), Baldwin (36/56), McCluster (29/45), Copper (13/20), Devon Wylie (6/9), Moeaki
(63/98), Maneri (29/45)
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Week 11 – (61 plays) Cassel (31/51), Quinn (30/49), Charles (41/67), Draughn (14/23), Eachus
(6/10), Hillis (6/10), McCluster (49/80), Breaston (45/74), Copper (33/54), Bowe (23/38), Wylie
(18/30), Moeaki (60/98), Maneri (10/16).
Week 12 – (61 plays) Quinn (61/100), Charles (44/72), Hillis (10/16), Eachus (9/15), Draughn
(8/13), Bowe (60/98), Baldwin (26/43), McCluster (20/33), Copper (19/31), Jamar Newsome
(14/23), Moeaki (61/100), Maneri (34/56).
Week 13 – (69 plays) Quinn (69/100), Charles (43/62), Patrick DiMarco (38/55), Hillis (21/30),
Cray (4/6), Bowe (53/77), Newsome (25/36), McCluster (21/30), Baldwin (20/29), Copper (6/9),
Moeaki (68/99), Maneri (42/61).
Week 14 – (54 plays) Quinn (54/100), Charles (33/61), Draughn (12/22), DiMarco (11/20),
Hillis (8/15), Newsome (33/61), Copper (32/59), McCluster (32/59), Baldwin (29/54), Bowe
(8/15), Moeaki (52/96), Maneri (20/37).
Week 15 – (49 plays) Quinn (49/100), Charles (31/63), Draughn (12/24), Hillis (6/12), DiMarco
(4/8), Baldwin (47/96), Newsome (39/80), McCluster (36/73), Wylie (7/14), Moeaki (48/98),
Maneri (15/31).
Week 16 – (72 plays) Quinn (72/100), DiMarco (50/96), Charles (38/53), Hillis (30/42),
Draughn (4/6), Newsome (45/62), Baldwin (40/56), McCluster (37/51), Wylie (29/40), Copper
(2/3), Maneri (72/100),
Week 17 – (50 plays) Quinn (50/100), Charles (19/38), DiMarco (17/34), Draughn (16/32), Gray
(8/16), Hillis (7/14), Newsome (35/70), Baldwin (32/64), McCluster (29/58), Wylie (18/36),
Breaston (10/20), Moeaki (36/72), Maneri (23/46).
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Week 1 – (72 plays) Carson Palmer (72/100), Darren McFadden (68/94), Mike Goodson (3/4),
Taiwan Jones (1/1), Marcel Reece (38/53), Owen Schmitt (8/11), Darrius Heyward-Bey (66/92),
Rod Streater (71/99), Derek Hagan (25/35), Juron Criner (2/3), Brandon Myers (68/94), Richard
Gordon (7/10), David Ausberry (3/4).
Week 2 – (65 plays) Palmer (65/100), McFadden (48/74), Goodson (17/26), Reece (27/42),
Schmitt (9/14), Heyward-Bey (48/74), Streater (40/62), Denarius Moore (40/62), Hagan (19/29),
Myers (49/75), Gordon (22/34), Ausberry (6/9).
Schmitt (2/4), Moore (47/82), Heyward-Bey (27/47), Hagan (25/44), Streater (19/33), Myers
(47/82), Gordon (14/25), Ausberry (10/18).
Schmitt (4/7), Hagan (48/84), Moore (45/79), Streater (26/46), Criner (14/25), Myers (53/93),
Ausberry (11/19).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Schmitt (3/4), Heyward-Bey (50/68), Moore (48/66), Streater (33/45), Hagan (22/30), Criner
(9/12), Myers (73/100), Ausberry (15/21)
Schmitt (3/4), Moore (64/82), Heyward-Bey (61/78), Streater (36/46), Hagan (10/13), Criner
(9/12), Myers (78/100), Ausberry (8/10).
Schmitt (1/2), Heyward-Bey (53/84), Moore (51/81), Streater (32/51), Hagan (4/6), Criner (1/2),
Myers (63/100), Gordon (5/8), Ausberry (4/6).
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Week 9 – (81 plays) Palmer (81/100), Goodson (33/41), McFadden (18/22), Jones (5/6), Reece
(59/73), Schmitt (1/1), Moore (70/86), Heyward-Bey (65/80), Streater (45/56), Hagan (14/17),
Criner (6/7), Myers (81/100), Gordon (6/7), Ausberry (2/2).
Week 10 – (75 plays) Palmer (69/92), Matt Leinart (6/8), Jeremy Stewart (14/19), Jones (6/8),
Reece (58/77), Schmitt (13/17), Moore (63/84), Heyward-Bey (62/83), Streater (45/60), Hagan
(23/31), Criner (15/20), Myers (56/75), Ausberry (12/16), Gordon (8/11).
Week 11 – (73 plays) Palmer (73/100), Stewart (10/14), Jones (6/8), Reece (63/86), Schmitt
(20/27), D. Moore (57/78), Heyward-Bey (50/68), Hagan (34/47), Streater (27/37), Criner
(15/21), Myers (68/93), Gordon (3/4), Ausberry (2/3).
Week 12 – (61 plays) Palmer (61/100), Stewart (21/34), Reece (49/80), Schmitt (8/13),
Heyward-Bey (56/92), Moore (56/92), Criner (40/66), Streater (5/8), Myers (59/97) Ausberry
(3/5).
Week 13 – (73 plays) Palmer (73/100), Stewart (21/29), Reece (70/96), Schmitt (13/18),
Heyward-Bey (58/79), Moore (46/63), Streater (37/51), Criner (33/45), Hagan (10/14), Myers
(70/96), Ausberry (2/3).
Week 14 – (51 plays) Palmer (51/100), McFadden (30/59), Reece (24/47), Schmitt (4/8), Moore
(45/88), Streater (40/78), Criner (13/25), Myers (48/94), Ausberry (1/2), Gordon (1/2).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Palmer (74/96), Terrelle Pryor (3/4), McFadden (46/60), Goodson (29/38),
Jamize Olawale (4/5), Reece (30/39), Moore (62/81), Heyward-Bey (58/75), Streater (40/52),
Criner (8/10), Myers (77/100), Ausberry (11/14), Gordon (1/1).
Week 16 – (62 plays) Leinart (54/87), Palmer (8/13), Pryor (3/5), McFadden (48/77), Goodson
(11/18), Olawale (4/6), Reece (30/48), Heyward-Bey (49/79), Moore (48/77), Streater (41/66),
Hagan (9/15), Myers (57/92), Gordon (5/8), Ausberry (3/5).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Pryor (64/100), McFadden (56/88), Olawale (4/6), Goodson (4/6), Reece
(24/38), Heyward-Bey (56/88), Moore (53/83), Streater (46/72), Hagan (7/11), Myers (62/97),
Ausberry (5/8), Gordon (3/5).
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Week 1 – (56 plays) Philip Rivers (56/100), Curtis Brinkley (30/54), Ronnie Brown (26/46),
Le’Ron McClain (25/45), Malcom Floyd (49/88), Robert Meachem (36/64), Eddie Royal
(22/39), Antonio Gates (52/93), Randy McMichael (30/54), Dante Rosario (9/16).
Week 2 – (81 plays) Rivers (81/100), Brinkley (41/51), Brown (25/31), Jackie Battle (15/19),
McClain (43/53), Floyd (63/78), Meachem (59/73), Royal (24/30), Michael Spurlock (4/5),
Richard Goodman (2/3), McMichael (67/83), Rosario (53/65), Ladarius Green (4/5).
Week 3 – (56 plays) Rivers (56/100), Ryan Mathews (43/77), Brinkley (7/12), Battle (6/11),
McClain (11/20), Floyd (53/95), Meachem (43/77), Royal (26/46), Spurlock (2/4), Goodman
(1/2), Gates (46/82), McMichael (27/48), Rosario (15/27).
Week 4 – (63 plays) Rivers (63/100), Mathews (21/33), Battle (27/43), Brown (14/22), McClain
(27/43), Floyd (57/90), Meachem (47/75), Royal (16/25), Goodman (1/2), Gates (54/86),
McMichael (33/52), Rosario (16/25).
Week 5 – (69 plays) Rivers (69/100), Brown (33/48), Mathews (28/41), Battle (8/12), McClain
(16/23), Floyd (65/94), Meachem (54/78), Royal (36/52), Gates (66/96), McMichael (32/46),
Rosario (7/10).
Week 6 – (75 plays) Rivers (75/100), Mathews (41/55), Brown (32/43), Battle (2/3), McClain
(19/25), Floyd (72/96), Meachem (68/91), Royal (27/36), Goodman (4/5), Gates (69/82),
McMichael (33/44), Rosario (8/11)
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Week 7 – BYE WEEK
(26/38), Floyd (67/97), Meachem (45/65), Danario Alexander (1/1), Gates (69/100), McMichael
(39/57), Rosario (29/42).
(20/42), Floyd (41/85), Alexander (34/71), Seyi Ajirotutu (19/40), Gates (42/88), Rosario
(17/35), McMichael (17/35).
(16/24), Alexander (59/89), Floyd (58/88), Royal (24/36), Meachem (8/12), Gates (56/85),
(14/20), Floyd (68/99), Alexander (63/91), Meachem (11/16), Royal (4/6), Gates (66/96), Green
(26/38), McMichael (23/33).
(21/31), Floyd (67/99), Alexander (64/94), Ajirotutu (22/32), Meachem (2/3), Gates (66/97),
McMichael (26/38), Green (4/6).
Week 13 – (67 plays) Rivers (67/100), Brown (34/51), Mathews (33/49), McClain (16/24),
Floyd (66/99), Alexander (63/94), Ajirotutu (31/46), Meachem (2/3), Gates (65/97), McMichael
(23/34), Green (2/3).
(28/35), Floyd (74/94), Alexander (54/68), Spurlock (30/38), Meachem (7/9), Gates (77/97),
Week 15 – (47 plays) Rivers (47/100), Brinkley (21/45), Mathews (17/36), Battle (9/19),
McClain (8/17), Floyd (46/98), Alexander (45/96), Spurlock (31/66), Meachem (1/2), Gates
(40/85), McMichael (12/26), Rosario (5/11).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Rivers (61/100), Battle (33/54), Brown (24/39), Brinkley (4/7), McClain
(23/38), Alexander (51/84), Royal (50/82), Spurlock (20/33), Meachem (11/18), Gates (53/87),
Week 17 – (51 plays) Rivers (51/100), Battle (33/65), Brown (14/27), Brinkley (4/8), McClain
(20/39), Alexander (45/88), Royal (44/86), Spurlock (19/37), Meachem (6/12), Gates (39/76),
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Tony Romo (61/100), DeMarco Murray (47/77), Felix Jones (10/16), Miles
Austin (52/85), Dez Bryant (51/84), Kevin Ogletree (28/46), Jason Witten (48/79), John Phillips
(10/16).
Week 2 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Murray (39/68), Jones (18/32), Lawrence Vickers (16/28),
Bryant (51/89), Austin (47/82), Ogletree (37/65), Witten (50/88), Phillips (21/37).
Week 3 – (68 plays) Romo (68/100), Murray (56/82), Jones (11/16), Vickers (19/28), Bryant
(62/91), Austin (49/72), Olgetree (40/59), Dwayne Harris (7/10), Witten (68/100), Phillips
(26/38).
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Week 4 – (70 plays) Romo (59/84), Kyle Orton (11/16), Murray (47/67), Phillip Tanner (11/16),
Jones (9/13), Vickers (11/16), Bryant (68/97), Austin (49/70), Ogletree (49/70), Cole Beasley
(13/19), Andre Holmes (8/11), Harris (6/9), Witten (70/100), Phillips (10/14).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Week 6 – (89 plays) Romo (89/100), Jones (49/55), Murray (22/35), Tanner (16/18), Lance
Dunbar (2/2), James Hanna (11/12), Austin (83/93), Bryant (72/81), Ogletree (35/39), Harris
(1/1), Witten (89/100),
Week 7 – (68 plays) Romo (68/100), Tanner (35/51), Jones (33/49), Vickers (19/28), Austin
(62/91), Bryant (48/71), Ogletree (25/37), Harris (7/10), Witten (68/100), Phillips (33/49),
Hanna (6/9).
Week 8 – (86 plays) Romo (86/100), Jones (62/72), Tanner (23/27), Vickers (12/14), Austin
(79/92), Bryant (74/86), Ogletree (50/58), Harris (4/5), Witten (86/100), Phillips (33/38), Hanna
(2/2).
Week 9 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Jones (34/60), Dunbar (12/21), Tanner (2/4), Vickers
(18/32), Austin (53/93), Bryant (47/82), Ogletree (21/37), Harris (15/26), Beasley (2/4), Witten
(57/100), Phillips (16/28), Hanna (6/11)
Week 10 – (54 plays) Romo (54/100), Jones (33/61), Dunbar (10/19), Tanner (1/2), Vickers
(27/50), Austin (49/91), Bryant (44/81), Ogletree (24/44), Beasley (4/7), Harris (3/6), Witten
(54/100), Phillips (18/33), Hanna (1/2).
Week 11 – (90 plays) Romo (90/100), Jones (46/51), Dunbar (37/41), Vickers (20/22), Austin
(86/96), Bryant (74/82), Ogletree (30/33), Harris (26/29), Beasley (21/23), Witten (90/100),
Phillips (11/12), Hanna (8/9).
Week 12 – (77 plays) Romo (77/100), Jones (35/45), Dunbar (27/35), Vickers (15/19), Bryant
(74/96), Harris (68/88), Beasley (61/79), Austin (10/13), Holmes (8/10), Witten (77/100),
Week 13 – (65 plays) Romo (65/100), Murray (37/57), Jones (16/25), Dunbar (1/2), Vickers
(35/54), Bryant (54/83), Austin (44/68), Ogletree (21/32), D. Harris (11/17), Beasley (4/6),
Witten (65/100), Phillips (26/40), Hanna (5/8).
(21/29), Austin (67/93), Bryant (57/79), Harris (35/49), Ogletree (13/18), Witten (72/100),
(14/21), Austin (57/85), Bryant (49/73), Ogletree (23/34), Harris (16/24), Beasley (5/7), Witten
(66/99), Phillips (24/36), Hanna (17/25).
Week 16 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Murray (50/88), Jones (7/12), Vikcers (8/14)Austin
(55/96), Bryant (49/86), Ogletree (24/42), Harris (18/32), Witten (57/100), Phillips (9/16),
Hanna (8/14).
NEW YORK GIANTS
Week 1 – (55 plays) Eli Manning (55/100), Ahmad Bradshaw (52/95), David Wilson (3/5),
Hakeem Nicks (53/96), Victor Cruz (50/91), Rueben Randle (2/4), Ramses Barden (1/2),
Martellus Bennett (53/96), Bear Pascoe (11/20)
Week 2 – (81 plays) Manning (81/100), Andre Brown (52/64), Bradshaw (14/17), Wilson (6/7),
Harry Hynoski (28/35), Nicks (77/95), Cruz (76/94), Barden (45/56), Domenik Hixon (5/6),
Randle (3/4), Bennett (80/99), Pascoe (17/21).
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Week 3 – (69 plays) Manning (60/87), David Carr (9/13), Brown (54/78), Wilson (4/6), Hynoski
(31/45), Cruz (61/88), Barden (63/91), Randle (27/39), Jerrel Jernigan (4/6), Bennett (59/86),
Pascoe (31/45).
Week 4 – (68 plays) Manning (68/100), Bradshaw (58/85), Brown (9/13), Wilson (1/1), Hynoski
(21/31), Cruz (65/96), Hixon (62/91), Barden (43/63), Randle (4/6), Bennett (63/93), Pascoe
(14/21).
Week 5 – (75 plays) Manning (75/100), Bradshaw (71/95), Wilson (2/3), Hynoski (42/56),
Hixon (67/89), Cruz (64/85), Randle (38/51), Jernigan (3/4), Bennett (52/69), Pascoe (32/43),
Adrien Robinson (1/1).
Week 6 – (65 plays) Manning (65/100), Bradshaw (55/85), Wilson (7/11), Hynoski (32/49),
Cruz (60/92), Nicks (52/80), Hixon (22/34), Barden (3/5), Bennett (57/88), Pascoe (24/37).
Week 7 – (63 plays) Manning (63/100), Bradshaw (48/76), Brown (16/25), Nicks (59/94), Cruz
(57/90), Hixon (32/51), Barden (2/3), Bennett (58/92), Pascoe (14/22).
Week 8 – (61 plays) Manning (60/98), Bradshaw (48/79), Brown (9/15), Wilson (2/3), Hynoski
(25/41), Nicks (58/95), Cruz (53/87), Hixon (22/36), Randle (9/15), Barden (5/8), Bennett
(53/87), Pascoe (10/16).
Week 9 – (51 plays) Manning (51/100), Bradshaw (37/73), Brown (14/27), Hynoski (25/49),
Nicks (48/94), Cruz (45/88), Hixon (18/35), Randle (7/14), Bennett (49/96), Beckum (7/14).
Week 10 – (73 plays) Manning (73/100), Brown (44/60), Bradshaw (23/32), Wilson (2/3),
Hynoski (12/16), Cruz (71/97), Nicks (71/97), Barden (39/53), Randle (19/26), Hixon (4/5),
Bennett (65/89), Travis Beckum (10/14), Pascoe (2/3).
Week 12 – (65 plays) Manning (65/100), Bradshaw (29/45), Brown (24/37), Wilson (12/18),
Hynoski (36/55), Cruz (58/89), Nicks (56/86), Randle (20/31), Jernigan (3/5), Barden (1/2),
Bennett (57/88), Pascoe (21/32), Beckum (5/8).
Week 13 – (66 plays) Manning (66/100), Bradshaw (54/82), Wilson (7/11), Gregg Lumpkin
(3/5), Hynoski (27/41), Cruz (58/88), Nicks (57/86), Randle (41/62), Jernigan (6/9), Barden
(2/3), Bennett (61/92), Pascoe (9/14).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Manning (69/100), Bradshaw (38/55), Wilson (21/30), Lumpkin (5/7),
Hynoski (36/52), Nicks (56/81), Cruz (53/77), Hixon (43/62), Barden (4/6), Jernigan (2/4),
Randle (1/1), Bennett (68/99), Pascoe (17/25).
Week 15 – (48 plays) Manning (48/100), Wilson (27/56), Lumpkin (19/40), Ryan Torain (1/2),
Hynoski (14/29), Nicks (46/96), Cruz (43/90), Hixon (33/69), Randle (2/4), Jernigan (1/2),
Bennett (45/94), Pascoe (8/17), Beckum (1/2).
Week 16 – (48 plays) Manning (48/100), Bradshaw (35/73), Wilson (4/8), Lumpkin (3/6),
Hynoski (16/33), Cruz (40/83), Nicks (35/73), Hixon (34/71), Randle (16/33), Jernigan (3/6),
Bennett (47/98), Pascoe (7/15).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Manning (57/90), Carr (6/10), Bradshaw (36/57), Wilson (27/43),
Lumpkin (1/2), Hynoski (38/60), Randle (55/87), Cruz (48/76), Jernigan (4/6), Nicks (1/2),
Bennett (61/97), Pascoe (25/40).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Week 1 – (94 plays) Michael Vick (94/100), LeSean McCoy (80/85), Bryce Brown (8/9),
DeSean Jackson (90/96), Jeremy Maclin (78/83), Jason Avant (62/66), Brent Celek (88/94), Clay
Harbor (34/36).
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Week 2 – (79 plays) Vick (79/100), McCoy (68/86), Brown (8/10), Stanley Havili (17/22),
Jackson (71/90), Maclin (43/54), Avant (55/70), Damaris Johnson (21/27), Celek (75/95),
Harbor (36/46).
Week 3 – (64 plays) Vick (64/100), McCoy (51/80), Brown (10/16), Havili (12/19), Jackson
(63/98), Johnson (56/88), Avant (56/88), Mardy Gilyard (6/9), Celek (54/84), Harbor (11/17).
Week 4 – (69 plays) Vick (69/100), McCoy (52/75), Brown (14/20), Havili (28/41), Maclin
(64/93), Jackson (64/93), Avant (33/48), Johnson (5/7), Celek (63/91), Harbor (19/28)
Week 5 – (57 plays) Vick (57/100), McCoy (46/81), Brown (4/7), Dion Lewis (3/5), Havili
(21/37), Maclin (53/93), Jackson (49/86), Avant (29/51), Johnson (4/7), Celek (54/95), Harbor
(22/39).
(78/95), Maclin (79/96), Avant (51/62), Riley Cooper (10/12), Celek (70/85), Harbor (20/24)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (63 plays) Vick (63/100), McCoy (54/86), Brown (8/13), Havili (14/22), Maclin
(62/98), Jackson (49/78), Avant (46/73), Cooper (18/29), Celek (54/86), Harbor (9/14).
(77/97), Maclin (77/97), Avant (44/56), Cooper (6/8), Celek (73/92), Harbor (25/32)
Week 10 – (78 plays) Nick Foles (58/74), Vick (20/26), McCoy (63/81), Brown (12/15), Havili
(15/19), Jackson (75/96), Maclin (73/94), Cooper (44/56), Avant (12/15), Johnson (11/14), Celek
(68/87), Harbor (17/22)
Week 11 – (75 plays) Foles (75/100), McCoy (54/72), Brown (20/27), Havili (9/12), Maclin
(72/96), Jackson (71/95), Cooper (53/71), Johnson (14/19), Celek (56/75), Harbor (26/35).
Week 12 – (50 plays) Foles (50/100), Brown (41/82), Lewis (8/16), Havili (12/24), Maclin
(49/98), Johnson (40/80), Cooper (36/72), Celek (43/86), Harbor (9/18)
Week 13 – (63 plays) Foles (63/100), Brown (56/89), Lewis (5/8), Havili (5/8), Cooper (62/98),
Maclin (61/97), Avant (51/81), Johnson (5/8), Celek (55/87), Harbor (15/24).
Week 14 – (76 plays) Foles (76/100), Brown (50/66), Lewis (26/34), Havili (11/14), Maclin
(75/99), Avant (71/93), Cooper (71/93), Johnson (19/25), McNutt (5/7), Harbor (51/67), Celek
(1/1).
Week 15 – (56 plays) Foles (56/100), Brown (49/88), S. Lewis (5/9), Havili (11/20), Maclin
(52/93), Cooper (55/98), Avant (38/68), Johnson (9/16), McNutt (1/2), Harbor (46/82), Emil
Igwenagu (13/23).
Week 16 – (76 plays) Foles (76/100), McCoy (64/84), Brown (10/13), Lewis (3/4), Maclin
(75/99), Cooper (73/96), Avant (59/78), Johnson (16/21), McNutt (3/4), Celek (60/79),
Igwenagu (12/16), Moore (5/7).
Week 17 – (66 plays) Vick (60/91), Trent Edwards (6/9), McCoy (37/56), Brown (17/26), Lewis
(10/15), Havili (14/21), Cooper (59/89), Avant (49/74), Johnson (18/27), McNutt (5/8), Celek
(48/73), Igwenagu (10/15).
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Week 1 – (75 plays) Robert Griffin III (75/100), Alfred Morris (53/71), Roy Helu (19/25), Evan
Royster (3/4), Aldrick Robinson (65/87), Josh Morgan (56/75), Santana Moss (38/51), Leonard
Hankerson 9/12, Pierre Garcon (8/11), Brandon Banks (2/3), Fred Davis (75/100), Niles Paul
(19/25), Logan Paulsen (9/12).
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Week 2 – (60 plays) Griffin (60/100), Morris (31/52), Royster (15/25), Helu (6/10), Darrel
Young (11/18), Morgan (48/80), Moss (36/60), Hankerson (31/52), Dezmon Briscoe (11/18),
Banks (1/2), Davis (60/100), Paul (20/33), Paulsen (1/2).
Week 3 – (76 plays) Griffin (76/100), Morris (37/49), Helu (19/25), Royster (19/25), Young
(11/14), Hankerson (59/78), Morgan (57/75), Moss (40/53), Banks (18/24), Briscoe (15/20),
Robinson (15/20), Davis (73/96), Paul (12/16), Paulsen (5/7).
Week 4 – (73 plays) Griffin (73/100), Morris (49/67), Royster (15/21), Young (25/34),
Hankerson (65/89), Garcon (49/67), Moss (35/48), Morgan (30/41), Banks (2/3), Davis (72/99),
Paulsen (12/16), Paul (11/15).
Week 5 – (49 plays) Griffin (36/73), Kirk Cousins (13/27), Morris (41/84), Royster (6/12), Ryan
Grant (1/2), Young (15/31), Morgan (39/80), Garcon (39/80), Moss (19/39), Robinson (10/20),
Hankerson (9/18), Davis (49/100), Paulsen (12/24), Paul (5/10).
Week 6 – (58 plays) Griffin (58/100), Morris (49/84), Royster (8/14), Young (11/19), Hankerson
(47/81), Morgan (35/60), Moss (18/31), Banks (18/31), ARobinson (9/16), Briscoe (4/7), Davis
(58/100), Paul (17/29), Paulsen (16/28)
Hankerson (68/97), Morgan (38/54), Moss (17/24), Robinson (3/.4), Briscoe (1/1), Paulsen
(60/86), Davis (16/23).
Hankerson (46/78), Morgan (42/71), Moss (25/42), Robinson (14/24), Briscoe (10/17), Paulsen
(56/95), Chris Cooley (19/32), Paul (9/15).
Week 9 – (81 plays) Griffin (81/100), Morris (40/49), Royster (38/47), Young (22/27), Morgan
(70/86), Hankerson (44/54), Moss (40/49), Robinson (34/42), Briscoe (6/7), Banks (4/5), Paulsen
(78/96), Paul (19/23), Cooley (10/12).
(35/66), Hankerson (34/64), Moss (22/42), Garcon (21/40), Robinson (9/17), Banks (4/8),
Paulsen (51/96), Paul (14/26), Cooley (9/17).
Week 12 – (63 plays) Griffin (63/100), Morris (50/79), Royster (9/140, Young (22/35), Morgan
(41/65), Hankerson (35/56), Moss (32/51), Garcon (29/46), Banks (9/14), Robinson (9/14),
Paulsen (63/100), Paul (13/21), Cooley (3/5).
Hankerson (35/65), Morgan (33/61), Garcon (31/57), Moss (15/28), Robinson (4/7), Paulson
(54/100), Paul (13/24), Cooley (5/9).
Week 14 – (72 plays) Griffin (65/90), Cousins (7/10), Morris (49/68), Royster (22/31), Young
(24/33), Garcon (61/85), Morgan (47/65), Moss (37/51), Hankerson (25/35), Robinson (8/11),
Paulson (70/97), Cooley (12/17), Paul (5/7).
Week 15 – (75 plays) Cousins (75/100), Morris (54/72), Royster (21/28), Young (25/33),
Garcon (56/75), Morgan (43/57), Hankerson (41/55), Moss (35/47), Robinson (3/4), Paulsen
(74/99), Cooley (18/24), Paul (5/7).
(47/89), Garcon (47/89), Moss (20/38), Hankerson (10/19), Robinson (3/6), Paulsen (52/98),
Paul (11/21), Cooley (7/13).
Week 17 – (62 plays) Griffin (62/100), Morris (45/73), Royster (17/27), Young (23/37), Garcon
(54/87), Morgan (48/77), Moss (25/40), Hankerson (15/24), Robinson (3/5), Paulsen (62/100),
Paul (13/21), Cooley (5/8).
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NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
Week 1 – (76 plays) Jay Cutler (76/100), Matt Forte (55/72), Michael Bush (25/33), Brandon
Marshall (70/92), Alshon Jeffery (41/54), Devin Hester (32/42), Earl Bennett (20/26), Kellen
Davis (74/97), Matt Spaeth (31/41), Kyle Adams (9/12)
Week 2 – (60 plays) Cutler (60/100), Bush (31/52), Forte (22/37), Armando Allen (7/12),
Marshall (60/100), Bennett (40/67), Jeffery (37/62), Hester (20/33), Davis (60/100), Spaeth
(11/18).
Week 3 – (69 plays) Cutler (69/100), Bush (39/57), Kahlil Bell (27/39), Allen (3/4), Evan
Rodriguez (5/7), Marshall (63/91), Jeffery (51/74), Bennett (31/45), Hester (11/16), Davis
(66/96), Spaeth (31/45), Adams (10/14).
Week 4 – (55 plays) Cutler (55/100), Forte (30/55), Bush (22/40), Bell (3/5), Marshall (52/95),
Jeffery (41/75), Dane Sanzenbacher (17/31), Hester (8/15), Eric Weems (1/2), Davis (54/98),
Spaeth (33/60), Adams (10/18).
Week 5 – (75 plays) Cutler (70/93), Jason Campbell (5/7), Forte (53/71), Bush (17/23), Allen
(5/7), Marshall (65/87), Jeffery (44/59), Sanzenbacher (32/43), Hester (25/33), Weems (3/4),
Davis (73/97), Spaeth (44/59), Adams (14/19).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (72 plays) Cutler (67/93), Campbell (5/7), Forte (51/71), Bush (24/33), Marshall
(70/97), Hester (59/82), Bennett (38/53), Weems (1/1), Charles Tillman (1/1), Davis (71/99),
Spaeth (31/43), Adams (13/18)
Week 8 – (55 plays) Cutler (55/100), Forte (50/91), Bush (5/9), Marshall (53/96), Hester
(40/73), Bennett (37/67), Weems (3/5), Davis (55/100), Spaeth (24/44), Adams (8/15).
Week 9 – (69 plays) Cutler (56/81), Campbell (13/19), Forte (35/51), Bush (21/30), Allen
(13/19), Rodriguez (16/23), Marshall (56/81), Bennett (41/59), Hester (33/48), Weems (15/22),
Davis (69/100), Spaeth (34/49), Adams (7/10).
Week 10 – (59 plays) Campbell (33/56), Cutler (26/44), Forte (51/86), Bush (8/14), Rodriguez
(10/17), Marshall (56/95), Bennett (47/80), Hester (27/46), Davis (54/92), Spaeth (32/54),
Adams (8/14).
Week 11 – (59 plays) Campbell (59/100), Forte (47/80), Bush (10/17), Allen (2/3), Rodriguez
(16/27), Marshall (54/92), Bennett (42/71), Jeffery (26/44), Hester (19/32), Weems (5/8), Davis
(54/92), Spaeth (9/15), Adams (5/8).
Week 12 – (73 plays) Cutler (73/100), Forte (41/56), Bush (31/42), Allen (3/4), Rodriguez
(24/33), Marshall (68/93), Bennett (52/71), Weems (27/37), Hester (8/11), Davis (67/92), Spaeth
(36/49), Adams (2/3).
Week 13 – (61 plays) Cutler (61/100), Forte (48/79), Bush (13/21), Rodriguez (32/52), Marshall
(55/90), Weems (36/59), Bennett (18/30), Sanzenbacher (16/26), Davis (55/90), Spaeth (26/43),
Adams (4/7).
Week 14 – (78 plays) Cutler (67/86), Forte (72/92), Allen (4/5), Bush (2/3), Rodriguez (9/12),
Marshall (74/95), Jeffery (57/73), Hester (54/69), Weems (21/27), Davis (49/63), Adams
(20/37), Spaeth (19/24).
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Week 15 – (54 plays) Cutler (54/100), Forte (51/94), Allen (3/6), Rodriguez (23/43), Marshall
(51/94), Jeffery (43/80), Hester (21/39), Weems (6/11), Davis (39/72), Spaeth (17/31), Adams
(14/24).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Cutler (61/100), Forte (30/49), Bell (22/36), Allen (9/15), Rodriguez
(25/41), Marshall (55/90), Jeffery (38/62), Bennett (27/44), Weems (4/7), Tillman (2/3), Hester
(1/2), Davis (52/85), Spaeth (27/44), Adams (13/21).
Week 17 – (69 plays) Cutler (69/100), Forte (56/81), Bell (12/17), Rodriguez (20/29), Marshall
(66/96), Jeffery (53/77), Bennett (24/35), Weems (5/7), Tillman (3/4), Hester (3/4), Davis
(63/91), Adams (22/32), Spaeth (14/20).
DETROIT LIONS
Week 1 – (67 plays) Matthew Stafford (67/100), Kevin Smith (49/73), Stefan Logan (5/7),
Keiland Williams (3/4), Calvin Johnson (67/100), Nate Burleson (53/79), Titus Young (38/57),
Brandon Pettigrew (67/100), Tony Scheffler (43/64), Will Heller (8/12).
Week 2 – (64 plays) Stafford (64/100), Smith (35/55), Joique Bell (20/31), Logan (1/2), Johnson
(64/100), Burleson (57/89), Young (40/62), Pettigrew (60/94), Scheffler (35/55), Heller (7/11).
Week 3 – (96 plays) Stafford (77/80), Shaun Hill (19/20), Mikel Leshoure (60/62), Bell (22/23),
Smith (5/5), Logan (2/2), Johnson (96/100), Young (89/93), Burleson (86/90), Ryan Broyles
(17/18), Kassim Osgood (1/1) Pettigrew (93/97), Heller (7/7).
Week 4 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Leshoure (34/44), Bell (27/35), Williams (14/18),
Johnson (70/90), Burleson (77/99), Young (67/86), Broyles (3/4), Pettigrew (70/90), Scheffler
(17/22), Heller (6/8).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK.
Week 6 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Leshoure (47/60), Bell (17/22), Williams (11/14),
Johnson (77/99), Burleson (62/79), Young (54/69), Broyles (9/12), Pettigrew (38/49), Heller
(27/35), Scheffler (26/33)
Week 7 – (68 plays) Stafford (68/100), Leshoure (38/56), Bell (29/43), Johnson (68/100), Young
(57/84), Broyles (35/51), Burleson (21/31), Pettigrew (52/76), Scheffler (20/29), Heller (9/13)
Week 8 – (73 plays) Stafford (73/100), Leshoure (30/41), Bell (28/38), Smith (12/16), Johnson
(68/93), Young (67/92), Broyles (34/47), Brian Robiske (3/4), Osgood (1/1), Pettigrew (67/92),
Scheffler (38/52), Heller (7/10)
Week 9 – (71 plays) Stafford (71/100), Leshoure (32/45), Bell (27/38), Smith (11/15), Young
(60/85), Johnson (59/83), Broyles (29/41), Mike Thomas (14/20), Osgood (2/3), Pettigrew
(43/61), Heller (35/49), Scheffler (10/14).
Week 10 – (63 plays) Stafford (63/100), Leshoure (36/57), Bell (26/41), Smith (1/2), Johnson
(61/97), Young (63/100), Broyles (32/51), Thomas (6/10), Pettigrew (37/59), Scheffler (17/27),
Heller (15/24).
Week 11 – (72 plays) Stafford (72/100), Leshoure (39/54), Smith (19/26), Bell (10/14), C.
Johnson (71/99), Young (68/94), Broyles (31/43), Thomas (4/6), Pettigrew (62/86), Scheffler
(38/53), Heller (10/14).
Week 12 – (89 plays) Stafford (89/100), Leshoure (34/38), Smith (26/29), Bell (18/20), Johnson
(87/98), Broyles (80/90), Thomas (58/65), Robiske (3/3), Pettigrew (89/100), Scheffler (35/39),
Heller (15/17).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Stafford (77/100), Leshoure (43/56), Bell (21/27), Smith (13/17), Logan
(4/5), Johnson (76/99), Thomas (70/91), Broyles (8/10), Osgood (1/1), Pettigrew (60/78),
Scheffler (41/53), Heller (32/42)
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Week 14 – (84 plays) Stafford (84/100), Bell (43/51), Leshoure (31/37), Smith (7/8), Johnson
(81/96), Durham (78/93), Thomas (17/20), Robiske (5/6), Heller (64/76), Scheffler (61/73),
Pettigrew (16/19).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Stafford (77/100), Bell (33/43), Leshoure (31/40), Smith (9/12), Logan
(5/6), Shaun Chapas (2/3), Johnson (70/91), Durham (49/64), Robiskie (34/44), Thomas (18/23),
Heller (62/81), Scheffler (52/68).
Week 16 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Bell (42/54), Leshoure (28/36), Chapas (9/12), Logan
(5/6), Smith (3/4), Johnson (75/96), Durham (49/63), Robiske (30/38), Thomas (22/28),
Scheffler (49/63).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Stafford (64/100), Leshoure (46/72), Bell (18/28), Chapas (3/5), Logan
(1/2), Johnson (61/95), Durham (42/66), Robiske (25/39), Thomas (14/22), Heller (41/64),
Scheffler (40/62), Pettigrew (15/23).
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Week 1 – (68 plays) Aaron Rodgers (68/100), Cedric Benson (25/37), Jon Kuhn (13/19), Jordy
Nelson (65/96), Greg Jennings (63/93), James Jones (58/85), Randall Cobb (35/51), Donald
Driver (3/4), Jermichael Finley (58/85), Tom Crabtree (14/21).
Week 2 – (68 plays) Rodgers (68/100), Benson (48/71), Kuhn (31/46), Nelson (66/97), Jones
(54/79), Cobb (20/29), Driver (12/18), Finley (55/81), Crabtree (27/40), D.J. Williams (20/29).
Week 3 – (75 plays) Rodgers (75/100), Benson (51/68), Kuhn (45/60), Jennings (54/72), Nelson
(54/72), Jones (49/65), Cobb (9/12), Driver (4/5), Finley (55/73), Williams (36/48), Ryan Taylor
(18/24).
Week 4 – (70 plays) Rodgers (69/99), Graham Harrell (1/1), Benson (59/84), Kuhn (16/23),
Nelson (63/90), Jennings (13/19), Jones (62/89), Cobb (33/47), Driver (18/26), Finley (53/76),
Crabtree (24/34), Taylor (9/13).
Week 5 – (67 plays) Rodgers (67/100), Alex Green (27/40), Benson (16/24), Kuhn (21/31),
Jones (64/96), Nelson (62/93), Cobb (44/66), Driver (8/12), Finley (33/49), Crabtree (30/45),
Williams (22/33), Taylor (8/12).
Week 6 – (73 plays) Rodgers (66/90), Harrell (7/10), Green (51/70), James Starks (8/11), Kuhn
(27/37), Jones (62/85), Nelson (60/82), Cobb (44/60), Driver (16/22), Jarrett Boykin (10/14),
Crabtree (46/63), Finley (24/33), Taylor (13/18)
Week 7 – (68 plays) Rodgers (68/100), Green (46/68), Kuhn (23/34), Jones (65/96), Nelson
(57/84), Cobb (50/74), Driver (11/16), Boykin (5/7), Finley (41/60), Crabtree (29/43), Williams
(7/10), Taylor (6/9).
Week 8 – (67 plays) Rodgers (67/100), Green (52/76), Starks (7/10), Jones (66/97), Cobb
(59/87), Driver (23/34), Boykin (22/32), Crabtree (37/54), Finley (36/53), Williams (25/37),
Taylor (7/10).
Week 9 – (71 plays) Rodgers (71/100), Green (41/58), Starks (23/32), Jones (71/100), Cobb
(57/80), Driver (24/34), Boykin (23/32), Nelson (13/18), Finley (35/49), Crabtree (32/45),
Taylor (20/28), Williams (16/23).
Week 11 – (64 plays) Rodgers (64/100), Starks (44/69), Green (6/9), Kuhn (16/25), Jones
(63/98), Nelson (53/83), Cobb (47/73), Driver (17/27), Finley (35/55), Crabtree (23/36),
Williams (14/22), Taylor (2/3).
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Week 12 – (61 plays) Rodgers (52/85), Harrell (9/15), Green (25/41), Starks (16/26), Jones
(57/93), Nelson (54/89), Cobb (38/62), Driver (7/11), Finley (35/57), Crabtree (23/38), Williams
(15/25), Taylor (3/5).
Week 13 – (81 plays) Rodgers (81/100), Green (28/35), Starks (27/33), Kuhn (41/51), Jones
(80/99), Cobb (59/73), Jennings (53/65), Nelson (11/14), Boykin (4/5), Finley (49/60), Crabtree
(33/41), Williams (14/17), Taylor (6/7).
Week 14 – (53 plays) Rodgers (53/100), Green (32/60), Harris (7/13), Grant (2/4), Jones
(50/94), Jennings (46/87), Cobb (41/77), Boykins (5/9), Driver (3/6), Finley (26/49), Williams
(13/25), Crabtree (13/25), Taylor (2/4).
Week 15 – (74 plays) Rodgers (74/100), Green (34/46), Grant (14/19), Harris (7/9), Kuhn
(21/42), Jones (68/92), Jennings (64/86), Cobb (57/77), Boykin (4/5), Finley (58/78), Taylor
(14/19), Crabtree (12/16).
Week 16 – (78 plays) Rodgers (63/81), Harrell (15/19), Grant (41/53), Harris (19/24), Kuhn
(32/41), Jones (68/87), Jennings (64/82), Cobb (41/53), Boykin (9/12), Driver (4/5), Jeremy Ross
(1/1), Finley (47/60), Williams (44/56), Taylor (12/15).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Rodgers (64/100), Harris (35/55), Grant (5/8), Kuhn (28/44), Jones
(63/98), Jenning (62/97), Nelson (37/58), Boykin (8/12), Ross (1/2), Finley (49/77), Crabtree
(20/31), Williams (11/17), Taylor (1/2).
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Week 1 – (59 plays) Christian Ponder (59/100), Adrian Peterson (32/54), Toby Gerhart (20/34),
Jerome Felton (32/54), Percy Harvin (47/80), Michael Jenkins (47/80), Devin Aromashodu
(25/42), Stephen Burton (11/19), Kyle Rudolph (59/100), John Carlson (18/31)
Week 2 – (70 plays) Ponder (70/100), Peterson (43/61), Gerhart (25/36), Felton (25/36), Harvin
(54/77), Jenkins (64/91), Burton (12/17), Rudolph (70/100), Carlson (18/26), Rhett Ellison
(8/11).
Week 3 – (79 plays) Ponder (79/100), Peterson (49/62), Gerhart (23/29), Felton (38/48), Matt
Asiata (4/5), Harvin (53/67), Jenkins (64/81), Aromashodu (39/49), Burton (10/13), Rudolph
(67/85), Carlson (29/37), Ellison (19/24).
Week 4 – (58 plays) Ponder (58/100), Peterson (46/79), Gerhart (10/17), Felton (22/38), Asiata
(2/3), Jerome Simpson (48/83), Harvin (44/76), Jenkins (32/55), Aromashodu (5/9), Rudolph
(58/100), Carlson (13/22), Ellison (10/17).
Week 5 – (69 plays) Ponder (66/96), Joe Webb (3/4), Peterson (44/64), Gerhart (22/32), Asiata
(3/4), Felton (17/25), Harvin (45/65), Aromashodu (40/58), Jenkins (39/57), Simpson (24/35),
Burton (15/22), Rudolph (53/77), Ellison (22/32), Carlson (21/30).
Week 6 – (84 plays) Ponder (84/100), Peterson (70/83), Gerhart (14/17), Felton (22/26), Jenkins
(73/87), Harvin (64/76), Aromashodu (50/60), Burton (12/14), Rudolph (84/100), Carlson
(17/20), Ellison (14/17)
Week 7 – (52 plays) Ponder (52/100), Peterson (41/79), Gerhart (11/21), Felton (24/46),
Simpson (38/73), Harvin (31/60), Jenkins (21/40), Burton (15/29), Aromashodu (2/4), Rudolph
(49/94), Ellison (15/29), Carlson (13/25).
Simpson (60/100), Harvin (48/80), Jenkins (39/65), Burton (13/22), Rudolph (57/95), Ellison
(12/20)
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Week 9 – (54 plays) Ponder (54/100), Peterson (41/76), Gerhart (13/24), Asiata (3/6), Felton
(17/31), Jenkins (36/67), Simpson (35/65), Harvin (34/63), Aromashodu (12/22), Rudolph
(54/100), Ellison (13/24), Allen Reisner (8/15).
(46/66), Simpson (40/57), Jarius Wright (30/43), Burton (20/29), Aromashodu (13/19), Rudolph
(68/97), Ellison (24/34), Carlson (12/17).
(41/62), Wright (41/62), Simpson (29/44), Aromashodu (26/39), Burton (14/21), Rudolph
(48/73), Carlson (27/41), Ellison (24/36).
Jenkins (41/75), Simpson (39/71), Wright (27/49), Burton (12/22), Aromashodu (11/20),
Rudolph (47/85), Ellison (8/15), Carlson (8/15).
(26/46), Jenkins (30/53), Wright (23/40), Aromashodu (23/40), Burton (16/28), Simpson (16/28),
Rudolph (50/88), Carlson (18/32), Ellison (23/40),
(27/46), Simpson (34/58), Jenkins (33/56), Wright (23/39), Burton (17/29), Aromashodu (10/17),
Rudolph (55/93), Carlson (19/32), Ellison (16/27).
(33/45), Jenkins (52/70), Simpson (51/69), Aromashodu (24/32), Wright (23/31), Rudolph
(70/95), Carlson (25/34), Ellison (18/24).
Jenkins (48/70), Simpson (39/57), Wright (39/57), Aromashodu (26/38), Rudolph (62/90),
Ellison (18/26), Carlson (11/16).
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA FALCONS
Week 1 – (55 plays) Matt Ryan (55/100), Michael Turner (26/47), Jacquizz Rodgers (25/45),
Lousaka Polite (16/29), Roddy White (53/96), Julio Jones (50/91), Harry Douglas (28/51), Tony
Gonzalez (49/89), Michael Palmer (16/29).
Week 2 – (67 plays) Ryan (67/100), Turner (43/64), Rodgers (24/36), Jason Snelling (12/18),
Polite (17/25), White (59/88), Jones (48/72), Douglas (39/58), Gonzalez (64/96), Palmer (21/31).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Ryan (69/96), Luke McCown (3/4), Rodgers (34/47), Turner (32/44),
Snelling (21/29), Polite (13/18), White (67/93), Douglas (48/67), Jones (38/53), Drew Davis
(13/18), Kevin Cone (3/4), Gonzalez (66/92), Palmer (6/8).
Week 4 – (70 plays) Ryan (70/100), Turner (37/53), Rodgers (30/43), Snelling (20/29), White
(67/96), Jones (60/86), Douglas (42/60), D. Davis (1/1), Gonzalez (64/91), Tommy Gallarda
(11/16)
Week 5 – (82 plays) Ryan (81/98), McCown (1/1), Turner (46/55), Rodgers (33/40), Snelling
(23/28), White (77/93), Jones (67/81), Douglas (39/47), Davis (4/5), Cone (1/1), Gonzalez
(67/81), Gallarda (20/24).
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Week 6 – (55 plays) Ryan (55/100), Turner (28/51), Rodgers (21/38), Snelling (7/13), Polite
(8/15), White (53/96), Jones (50/91), Douglas (37/67), Davis (1/2), Gonzalez (54/98), Gallarda
(8/15)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
(23/31), White (69/92), Jones (60/80), Davis (46/61), Cone (7/9), Gonzalez (67/89), Gallarda
(21/28)
(20/30), White (66/99), Jones (61/91), Douglas (34/51), Davis (1/1), Gonzalez (62/93), Palmer
(11/16), Gallarda (6/9).
Week 10 – (73 plays) Ryan (73/100), Turner (33/45), Rodgers (30/41), Snelling (11/15), Antone
Smith (4/5), Mike Cox (17/23), White (67/92), Jones (45/62), Douglas (41/56), Davis (14/19),
Gonzalez (70/96), Palmer (22/30), Gallarda (2/3).
Week 11 – (73 plays) Ryan (73/100), Rodgers (34/47), Turner (33/45), Snelling (18/25), Cox
(10/26), Chase Coffman (1/1)
(14/23), White (60/100), Jones (51/85), Douglas (40/67), Gonzalez (54/90), Palmer (13/22),
Coffman (1/2).
(11/19), Coffman (1/2).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Ryan (65/100), Rodgers (30/46), Turner (20/31), Snelling (15/23), Smith
(1/2), Cox (9/14), White (61/94), Jones (61/94), Douglas (50/77), Davis (5/8), Cone (1/2),
Gonzalez (62/95), Palmer (5/8)
Week 15 – (68 plays) Ryan (61/90), McCown (7/10), Rodgers (31/46), Snelling (21/31), Turner
(21/31), Smith (1/1), Cox (22/32), Jones (56/82), White (50/74), Douglas (32/47), Davis (19/28),
Cone (3/4), Gonzalez (53/76), Palmer (17/25).
Week 16 – (56 plays) Ryan (56/100), Turner (29/52), Rodgers (21/38), Snelling (6/11), Cox
(23/41), White (49/88), Jones (46/82), Douglas (30/54), Davis (6/11), Cone (1/2), Gonzalez
(54/96), Palmer (11/20).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Ryan (63/100), Rodgers (35/56), Snelling (20/32), Turner (13/31), Cox
(6/10), Coffman (1/2).
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Week 1 – (50 plays) Cam Newton (50/100), DeAngelo Williams (21/42), Mike Tolbert (32/64),
Steve Smith (45/90), Brandon LaFell (50/100), Louis Murphy (37/74), Kealoha Pilares (3/6)
Greg Olsen (48/96), Ben Hartsock (8/16).
Week 2 – (63 plays) Newton (63/100), Williams (25/40), Jonathan Stewart (23/37), Tolbert
(18/29), S. Smith (58/92), LaFell (60/95), Murphy (42/67), Pilares (5/8), Olsen (63/100), Gary
Barnidge (17/27)
Week 3 – (58 plays) Newton (54/93), Derek Anderson (4/7), Williams (30/52), Tolbert (35/60),
S. Smith (55/95), LaFell (56/97), Murphy (40/69), Pilares (2/3), Armanti Edwards (2/3), Olsen
(54/93), Barnidge (9/16), Hartsock (5/9).
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Week 4 – (64 plays) Newton (64/100), Tolbert (34/53), Williams (25/39), Stewart (21/33), S.
Smith (61/95), LaFell (61/95), Murphy (34/53), Edwards (2/3), Pilares (1/2), Olsen (64/100),
Hartsock (12/19), Barnidge (5/8).
Week 5 – (55 plays) Newton (55/100), Stewart (27/49), Williams (20/36), Tolbert (17/31),
Richie Brockel (1/2), S. Smith (51/93), LaFell (51/93), Murphy (35/64), Edwards (2/4), Pilares
(1/2), Olsen (55/100), Hartsock (9/16), Barnidge (5/9)
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (62 plays) Newton (62/100), Stewart (55/89), Williams (5/8), Tolbert (15/24), S.
Smith (61/98), LaFell (59/95), Murphy (41/66), Edwards (2/3), Olsen (62/100), Hartsock (7/11),
Barnidge (2/3).
Week 8 – (82 plays) Newton (82/100), Stewart (53/65), Williams (14/17), Tolbert (33/40), S.
Smith (81/99), LaFell (69/84), Murphy (45/55), Pilares (4/5), Edwards (1/1), Olsen (82/100),
Brockel (5/9), S. Smith (53/98), Murphy (46/85), Pilares (17/31), Edwards (8/15), Olsen
(54/100), Hartsock (19/35), Barnidge (7/13).
LaFell (70/100), S. Smith (54/77), Edwards (16/23), David Gettis (12/17), Murphy (34/49),
Olsen (62/89), Barnidge (16/23), Hartsock (7/10)
LaFell (62/93), S. Smith (61/91), Murphy (48/72), Edwards (4/6), Olsen (67/100), Hartsock
(9/13), Barnidge (7/10).
Week 12 – (67 plays) Newton (67/100), Williams (33/49), Stewart (26/39), Tolbert (26/39),
Brockel (2/3), S. Smith (62/93) LaFell (58/87), Murphy (30/45), Edwards (8/12), Joe Adams
(2/3), Olsen (63/94), Hartsock (19/23), Barnidge (5/7).
Week 13 – (51 plays) Newton (51/100), Williams (31/61), Tolbert (23/45), Brockel (4/8), S.
Smith (50/98), Murphy (32/63), LaFell (25/49), Edwards (24/47), Adams (3/6), Olsen (51/100),
Week 14 – (70 plays) Newton (70/100), Williams (42/60), Armond Smith (2/3)Tolbert (36/51),
Brockel (9/13), Murphy (67/96), S. Smith (59/84), Edwards (33/47), Adams (3/4), Gettis (3/4),
Olsen (68/97), Hartsock (14/20), Barnidge (13/19).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Newton (77/100), Williams (41/53), A. Smith (3/4), Tolbert (45/58),
Murphy (57/74), S. Smith (56/73), LaFell (23/30), Edwards (14/18), Adams (13/17), Olsen
Week 16 – (63 plays) Newton (63/100), Williams (29/46), Smith (3/5), Tolbert (37/59), LaFell
(53/84), S. Smith (52/83), Murphy (42/67), Edwards (2/3), Adams (1/2), Olsen (60/95), Hartsock
(17/27), Barnidge (14/22).
Week 17 – (76 plays) Newton (71/93), Anderson (5/7), Williams (46/61), Tolbert (41/54),
Brockel (22/29), LaFell (59/78), S. Smith (51/67), Murphy (37/49), Edwards (6/8), Olsen
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Week 1 – (72 plays) Drew Brees (72/100), Darren Sproles (48/67), Pierre Thomas (15/21), Mark
Ingram (9/12), Jed Collins (18/25), Marques Colston (57/79), Lance Moore (53/74), Josh
Morgan (40/56), Devery Henderson (32/44), Jimmy Graham (57/79), Daniel Graham (16/22),
David Thomas (15/21)
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Week 2 – (78 plays) Brees (78/100), Sproles (36/46), P. Thomas (32/41), Ingram (21/27),
Collins (29/37), Moore (56/72), Colston (54/69), Courtney Roby (15/19), Greg Camarillo (3/4),
J. Graham (53/68), D. Thomas (22/28), D. Graham (22/28).
Week 3 – (60 plays) Brees (60/100), P. Thomas (26/43), Sproles (25/42), Ingram (12/20),
Collins (16/27), Henderson (51/85), Moore (49/82), Colston (34/57), Roby (7/12), Camarillo
(7/12), J. Graham (36/60), D. Graham (19/32), D. Thomas (19/30).
Collins (12/15), Colston (64/82), Henderson (53/68), Moore (50/64), Morgan (11/14), Roby
(10/13), J. Graham (58/74), D. Thomas (35/45), D. Graham (13/17).
Collins (17/24), Colston (58/81), Henderson (52/72), Camarillo (33/46), Morgan (17/24), Roby
(11/15), J. Graham (37/51), D. Thomas (37/51), D. Graham (17/24).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (64 plays) Brees (64/100), P. Thomas (33/52), Sproles (27/42), Ingram (12/19),
Travaris Cadet (1/2), Colston (57/89), Moore (44/69), Henderson (41/64), Roby (12/19), Morgan
(10/16), D. Thomas (39/61), D. Graham (17/27).
Week 8 – (61 plays) Brees (61/100), Sproles (34/56), P. Thomas (25/41), Ingram (6/10), Cadet
(5/8), Collins (17/28), Colston (57/93), Henderson (51/84), Moore (40/66), Roby (5/8), Graham
(40/66), D. Thomas (14/23),
Week 9 – (56 plays) Brees (56/100), P. Thomas (21/38), Ingram (18/32), Chris Ivory (13/23),
Cadet (6/11), Collins (24/43), Colston (44/79), Henderson (38/68), Moore (24/43), Morgan
(19/34), J. Graham (37/66), D. Thomas (19/34)
Week 10 – (62 plays) Brees (62/100), P. Thomas (27/44), Ingram (24/39), Ivory (10/16), Cadet
(6/10), Collins (23/37), Henderson (43/69), Colston (41/66), Moore (27/44), Morgan (25/40), J.
Graham (34/55), D. Thomas (23/37)
Week 11 – (57 plays) Brees (49/86), Chase Daniel (8/14), P. Thomas (22/39), Ivory (17/30),
Ingram (16/28), Cadet (5/9), Collins (29/51), Colston (35/61), Henderson (32/56), Moore
(26/46), Morgan (18/32), J. Graham (32/56), D. Thomas (25/44),
Week 12 – (70 plays) Brees (70/100), Sproles (29/41), Ingram (18/26), P. Thomas 14/20), Ivory
(11/16), Collins (27/39), Henderson (48/69), Colston (43/61), Moore (40/57), Morgan (30/43), J.
Graham (49/70), D. Thomas (20/29),
Week 13 – (77 plays) Brees (77/100), Sproles (35/45), P. Thomas (28/36), Ingram (10/13), Ivory
(8/10), Collins (27/35), Colston (66/86), Henderson (55/71), Moore (46/60), Morgan (24/31), J.
Graham (57/74), Michael Higgins (15/19)
Collins (21/29), Colston (54/75), Henderson (45/62), Morgan (40/56), Moore (29/40), J. Graham
(56/78), D. Thomas (25/35).
Week 15 – (70 plays) Brees (65/93), Sproles (28/40), Ingram (23/33), P. Thomas (21/30),
Collins (22/31), Henderson (51/73), Colston (48/69), Moore (38/54), Morgan (35/50), J. Graham
(49/70), D. Thomas (21/30)
Colston (69/73), Henderson (68/72), Moore (44/46), Morgan (42/44), D. Thomas (55/58), J.
Graham (53/56), Higgins (6/6)
Week 17 – (64 plays) Brees (64/100), Sproles (4062, Ingram (20/31), Ivory (8/12), Collins
(15/23), Colston (50-78), Moore (42/66), Henderson (42/66), Morgan (26/41), J. Graham
(47/73), D. Thomas (14/22).
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Week 1 – (65 plays) Josh Freeman (65/100), Doug Martin (50/77), D.J. Ware (10/15),
LaGarrette Blount (6/9), Erik Lorig (40/62), Vincent Jackson (63/97), Mike Williams (50/77),
Preston Parker (20/31), Luke Stocker (47/72), Dallas Clark (32/49).
Week 2 – (52 plays) Freeman (52/100), Martin (44/85), Ware (8/15), Blount (1/2), Lorig
(16/31), Jackson (49/94), Williams (45/87), Parker (15/29), Sammie Stroughter (12/23),
Arrelious Benn (3/6), Clark (39/75), Stocker (27/52).
(21/35), Jackson (58/97), Williams (53/88), Benn (29/48), Tiquan Underwood (6/10), Clark
(38/63), Stocker (26/43), Danny Noble (2/3).
Week 4 – (60 plays) Freeman (60/100), Martin (43/72), Blount (12/20), Ware (8/13), Lorig
(12/20), Jackson (57/95), Williams (56/93), Underwood (26/43), Benn (20/33), Clark (33/55),
Stocker (32/53).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Week 6 – (53 plays) Freeman (53/100), Martin (27/51), Blount (18/34), D. Ware (8/15), Lorig
(29/55), Williams (50/94), Jackson (49/92), Underwood (17/32), Stocker (33/62), Clark (29/55).
Week 7 – (73 plays) Freeman (73/100), Martin (56/77), Blount (10/14), Ware (7/10), Jackson
(68/93), Williams (66/90), Underwood (43/59), Benn (4/5), Clark (44/60), Stocker (34/47), Nate
Byham (10/14).
Week 8 – (79 plays) Freeman (79/100), Martin (54/68), Blount (14/18), Ware (11/14), Lorig
(41/52), V. Jackson (70/89), M. Williams (64/81), Underwood (37/47), Benn (7/9), R. Barber
(2/3), Stocker (41/52), D. Clark (39/49), Byham (15/19).
(35/54), Jackson (61/94), Williams (52/80), Underwood (31/48), Benn (3/5), Clark (30/46),
Byham (27/42), Stocker (19/29).
(27/63), Jackson (39/91), Williams (37/86), Underwood (11/26), Chris Owusu (3/7), Clark
(24/56), Byham (23/53), Stocker (8/19).
Week 11 – (80 plays) Freeman (80/100), Martin (68/85), Ware (12/15), Lorig (33/41), Jackson
(74/92), Williams (67/84), Underwood (34/42), Benn (7/9), Clark (50/62), Stocker (45/56),
Byham (10/12).
(27/47), Jackson (51/89), Williams (47/82), Underwood (29/51), Owusu (1/2), Stocker (36/63),
Clark (25/44), Byham (7/12).
Week 13 – (67 plays) Freeman (67/100), Martin (56/84), Ware (11/16), Lorig (21/31), Jackson
(66/99), Williams (59/88), Underwood (45/67), Owusu (1/1), Clark (39/58), Stocker (31/46),
Byham (6/9)
(33/46), Jackson (67/93), Williams (61/85), Underwood (33/46), Owusu (7/10), Stocker (44/61),
Clark (32/44), Byham (10/14)
Week 15 – (74 plays) Freeman (62/84), Dan Orlovsky (12/16), Martin (46/62), Ware (16/22),
Blount (13/18), Lorig (15/20) Underwood (60/81), Jackson (60/81), Williams (59/80), Owusu
(12/16), Clark (47/64), Stocker (28/38), Byham (14/19).
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(20/25), Jackson (79/98), Williams (77/95), Underwood (36/44), Parrish (16/20), Clark (46/57),
Stocker (42/52), Byham (7/9).
Week 17 – (xx plays) Freeman (68/100), Martin (62/91), Ware (6/9), Lorig (31/46), Jackson
(65/96), Williams (53/78), Underwood (37/54), David Douglas (6/9), Stocker (46/68), Clark
(21/31), Byham (13/19),
NFC WEST
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Week 1 – (62 plays) John Skelton (50/81), Kevin Kolb (12/19), Beanie Wells (13/21), LaRod
Stephens-Howling (20/32), Ryan Williams (20/32), Larry Fitzgerald (59/95), Andre Roberts
(51/82), Early Doucet (30/48), Michael Floyd (17/27), Todd Heap (46/74), Jeff King (29/47),
Rob Housler (6/10).
Week 2 – (63 plays) Kolb (61/97), Wells (24/38), Williams (22/35), LaRod Stephens-Howling
(13/21), Anthony Sherman (21/33), Fitzgerald (62/98), Roberts (54/86), Doucet (27/43), Floyd
(5/8), Heap (54/86), King (28/44), Housler (23/37).
Week 3 – (62 plays) Kolb (61/98), Williams (22/35), Stephens-Howling (21/34), Wells (14/23),
Sherman (10/16), Fitzgerald (56/90), Roberts (46/74), Floyd (35/56), Doucet (23/37), Housler
(48/77), King (33/53).
Week 4 – (72 plays) Kolb (72/100), William Powell (34/47), Williams (33/46), Sherman
(12/17), Fitzgerald (72/100), Roberts (68/94), Doucet (46/64), Floyd (31/43), Housler (43/60),
King (20/28)
Week 5 – (81 plays) Kolb (81/100), Williams (43/53), Powell (12/15), Alfonso Smith (10/12),
Sherman (22/27), Fitzgerald (80/99), Roberts (77/95), Doucet (54/67), Floyd (32/40), Housler
(49/60), King (24/30)
Week 6 – (74 plays) Kolb (62/84), Skelton (12/16), Stephens-Howling (39/53), Powell (26/35),
Smith (2/3), Reagan Maui’a (20/27), Fitzgerald (74/100), Roberts (58/78), Floyd (36/49), Doucet
(34/46), Housler (41/55), King (40/54)
Week 7 – (71 plays) Skelton (71/100), Stephens-Howling (54/76), Powell (8/11), Maui’a
(19/27), Fitzgerald (71/100), Roberts (53/75), Doucet (36/51), Floyd (28/39), Housler (50/70),
King (36/51)
Week 8 – (68 plays) Skelton (68/100), Stephens-Howling (29/43), Smith (1/1), Sherman (27/40),
Maui’a (6/9), Fitzgerald (67/99), Roberts (65/96), Doucet (46/68), Floyd (43/63), Patrick
Peterson (1/1), Housler (37/54), J. King (18/26).
Week 9 – (66 plays) Skelton (66/100), Stephens-Howling (51/77), Powell (3/5), Sherman
(21/32), Fitzgerald (64/97), Roberts (55/83), Floyd (39/59), Doucet (19/29), Housler (49/74), J.
King (27/41), Jim Dray (1/2).
Week 11 – (58 plays) Ryan Lindley (43/74), Skelton (15/26), Stephens-Howling (46/79), Powell
(6/10), Sherman (23/40), Fitzgerald (58/100), Roberts (50/86), Doucet (28/48), Floyd (15/26),
Housler (40/69), King (24/41).
Week 12 – (79 plays) Lindley (79/100), Powell (39/49), Wells (30/38), Stephens-Howling (6/8),
Sherman (21/27), Fitzgerald (76/96), Roberts (66/84), Floyd (53/67), LaRon Byrd (3/4), Housler
(66/84), King (33/42), Dray (2/3).
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Week 13 – (54 plays) Lindley (54/100), Wells (23/43), Powell (19/35), Stephens-Howling
(10/19), Sherman (11/20), Fitzgerald (54/100), Floyd (51/94), Doucet (31/57), Housler (48/89),
King (23/43).
Week 14 – (59 plays) Skelton (33/56), Lindley (26/44), Powell (35/59), Wells (13/22),
Stephens-Howling (8/14), Sherman (14/24), Fitzgerald (59/100), Roberts (44/75), Floyd (38/64),
Doucet (13/22), Housler (47/80), King (23/39).
Week 15 – (54 plays) Lindley (53/98), Wells (25/46), Powell (20/37), Stephens-Howling (8/15),
Sherman (18/33), Fitzgerald (49/91), Roberts (37/69), Floyd (35/65), Byrd (3/6), Housler
(38/70), King (30/56), Dray (7/13).
Week 16 – (74 plays) Lindley (48/65), Brian Hoyer (26/35), Powell (32/43), Stephens-Howling
(29/39), Wells (8/11), Sherman (15/20), Fitzgerald (74/100), Roberts (68/92), Floyd (51/69),
Byrd (5/7), Patrick Peterson (1/1), King (4/59), Housler (32/43), Dray (7/9).
Week 17 – (55 plays) Hoyer (55/100), Powell (50/91), Stephens-Howling (4/7), Fitzgerald
(55/100), Floyd (46/84), Roberts (46/84), Peterson (1/1), King (34/62), Sperry (22/40), Dray
(17/31).
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Week 1 – (57 plays) Sam Bradford (57/100), Steven Jackson (54/95), Daryl Richardson (2/4),
Isaiah Pead (1/2), Danny Amendola (51/89), Brandon Gibson (45/79), Steve Smith (23/40),
Chris Givens (17/30), Brian Quick (3/5), Lance Kendricks (41/72), Matthew Mulligan (17/32).
Week 2 – (68 plays) Bradford (68/100), Richardson (42/62), Jackson (25/37), Pead (2/3), Brit
Miller (13/19), Amendola (54/79), Gibson (49/72), Smith (34/50), Givens (18/26), Quick (3/4),
Kendricks (60/88), Mulligan (32/47), Mike McNeill (5/7).
Week 3 – (58 plays) Bradford (58/100), Jackson (37/64), Richardson (19/33), Pead (3/5), Miller
(5/9), Amendola (53/91), Gibson (42/72), Givens (12/21), Austin Pettis (11/19), Kendricks
(50/86), Mulligan (17/29), McNeill (11/19).
Week 4 – (61 plays) Bradford (61/100), Jackson (47/77), Richardson (13/21), Miller (16/26),
Amendola (45/74), Givens (42/69), Gibson (36/59), Quick (14/23), Pettis (7/11), Kendricks
(16/29), Amendola (17/30), Givens (44/79), Gibson (35/62), Pettis (18/32), Quick (12/21),
Kendricks (47/84), Mulligan (28/50), McNeill (6/11)
Week 6 – (73 plays) Bradford (73/100), Jackson (45/62), Richardson (28/38), Pead (2/3), Givens
(61/84), Gibson (47/64), Smith (27/37), Pettis (22/30), Quick (17/23), Kendricks (62/85),
Mulligan (25/34), McNeill (8/11).
(3/5), Gibson (43/72), Givens (38/63), Smith (31/52), Pettis (29/48), Quick (10/17), Kendricks
Week 8 – (59 plays) Bradford (52/88), Kellen Clemens (7/12), Jackson (28/47), Richardson
(23/39), Pead (8/14), Terrance Ganaway (5/8), Miller (13/22), Pettis (43/73), Givens (32/54),
Gibson (31/53), Quick (23/39), Smith (9/15), Kendricks (38/64), Mulligan (26/44), McNeill
(16/27).
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (84 plays) Bradford (84/100), Jackson (68/81), Richardson (11/13), Pead (5/6), B.
Miller (10/12), Amendola (72/86), Gibson (72/86), Pettis (45/54), Smith (14/17), Quick (7/8),
Kendricks (67/80), Mulligan (35/42), McNeill (9/11).
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Fantasy Articles
Week 11 – (68 plays) Bradford (68/100), Jackson (36/53), Richardson (31/46), Pead (1/1),
Amendola (56/82), Gibson (51/75), Givens (36/53), Pettis (24/35), Quick (14/21), Kendricks
(46/68), Mulligan (24/35), McNeill (20/29), Cory Harkey (1/1)
Week 12 – (58 plays) Bradford (57/98), Clemens (1/2), Jackson (41/71), Richardson (17/29),
Pead (1/2), Givens (49/84), Gibson (43/74), Pettis (26/45), Amendola (8/14), Quick (7/12),
Kendricks (45/78), Mulligan (33/57), McNeill (13/22), Harkey (5/9),
Givens (66/90), Gibson (66/90), Pettis (48/66), Quick (11/15), Smith (5/7), Kendricks (59/81),
Mulligan (25/34), McNeill (11/15), Harkey (1/1).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Bradford (69/100), Jackson (62/90), Richardson (7/10), Pead (1/1), Givens
(66/96), Gibson (56/81), Pettis (38/55), Quick (15/22), Smith (1/1), Kendricks (59/86), Mulligan
(27/39), Harkey (9/13).
Week 15 – (81 plays) Bradford (81/100), Jackson (41/51), Richardson (40/49), Gibson (64/79),
Amendola (61/75), Givens (50/62), Pettis (40/49), Quick (26/32), Kendricks (58/72), Mulligan
(14/17), Harkey (11/14).
Amendola (40/73), Givens (35/64), Gibson (30/55), Quick (14/25), Pettis (9/16), Kendricks
Week 17 – (64 plays) Bradford (64/100), Jackson (51/80), Pead (8/12), Richardson (5/8), Gibson
(53/83), Givens (49/77), Amendola (46/72), Pettis (14/22), Quick (6/9), Kendricks (53/83),
Mulligan (22/34), McNeill (13/20).
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Week 1 – (66 plays) Alex Smith (65/98), Colin Kaepernick (1/2), Frank Gore (49/74), Kendall
Hunter (15/23), Michael Crabtree (45/68), Mario Manningham (29/44), Randy Moss (21/32),
Keiland Williams (16/24), Vernon Davis (64/97), Delanie Walker (33/50).
Week 2 – (62 plays) Smith (62/100), Gore (44/71), Hunter (18/29), Bruce Miller (24/39),
Crabtree (44/71), Manningham (37/60), Williams (22/35), Moss (16/26), Davis (54/87), Walker
(34/55).
Week 3 – (58 plays) Smith (58/100), Gore (46/79), Hunter (11/19), Miller (13/22), Crabtree
(50/86), Manningham (31/53), Williams (24/41), Moss (21/36), Davis (58/100), Walker (24/41).
(40/56), Manningham (32/44), Williams (22/31), Moss (21/31), Davis (61/85), Walker (41/57),
Garrett Celek (14/19)
Week 5 – (67 plays) Smith (53/79), Kaepernick (19/28), Gore (41/61), Hunter (21/31), Anthony
Dixon (6/9), Miller (16/24), Manningham (32/48), Crabtree (29/43), Williams (20/30), Moss
(18/27), Ted Ginn Jr. (12/18), Davis (56/84), Walker (38/57), Celek (14/21).
Week 6 – (61 plays) Smith (45/74), Kaepernick (16/26), Gore (44/72), Hunter (17/28), Miller
(11/18) Crabtree (49/80), Manningham (41/67), Williams (34/56), Moss (17/28), Ginn (1/2),
Davis (61/100), Walker (21/34), Celek (4/7).
Week 7 – (58 plays) Smith (57/98), Kaepernick (1/2), Gore (37/64), Hunter (21/36), Miller
(33/57), Crabtree (39/67), Williams (30/52), Moss (24/41), Ginn (1/2), Davis (58/100), Walker
(40/69), Celek (1/2)
(30/56), Manningham (24/44), Moss (20/37), Williams (16/30), Ginn (7/13), Davis (54/100),
Walker (35/65), Celek (2/4).
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Fantasy Articles
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (66 plays) Kaepernick (43/65), Smith (23/35), Gore (54/82), Hunter (11/17), Miller
(27/41), Crabtree (50/76), Manningham (38/58), Williams (30/45), Moss (24/36), Ginn (2/3),
Davis (66/100), Walker (27/41).
Week 11 – (55 plays) Kaepernick (55/100), Gore (39/71), Hunter (11/20), Dixon (4/7), Miller
(25/45), Crabtree (26/47), Manningham (23/42), Williams (22/40), Moss (13/24), Ginn (3/5),
Davis (48/87), Walker (34/62), Celek (8/15)
Week 12 – (60 plays) Kaepernick (60/100), Gore (48/80), Hunter (8/13), Dixon (2/3), Brandon
Jacobs (2/3), Miller (37/62), Crabtree (35/58), Moss (25/42), Manningham (24/40), Williams
(10/17), Davis (60/100), Walker (31/52), Celek (5/8).
Week 13 – (76 plays) Kaepernick (76/100), Gore (66/87), Jacobs (8/11), Miller (46/61),
Crabtree (47/62), Moss (31/41), Manningham (27/36), Ginn (14/18), Davis (76/100), Walker
(39/51), Celek (3/4).
Week 14 – (57 plays) Kaepernick (57/100), Gore (39/68), James (15/26), Dixon (3/5), Miller
(29/51), Crabtree (43/75), Moss (29/51), A.J. Jenkins (8/14), Ginn (4/7), Davis (57/100), Celek
(3/5).
(37/54), Moss (47/69), Crabtree (43/63), Jenkins (8/12), Ginn (5/7), Davis (67/99), Walker
(48/71), Celek (9/13).
(20/35), Crabtree (50/88), Moss (42/74), Manningham (24/42), Walker (44/77), Celek (29/51),
Davis (17/30).
(36/54), Crabtree (54/81), Moss (36/54), Jenkins (19/28), Ginn (7/10), Davis (60/90), Walker
(41/61), Celek (11/16).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Week 1 – (75 plays) Russell Wilson (75/100), Marshawn Lynch (59/79), Robert Turbin (8/11),
Leon Washington (6/8), Michael Robinson (16/21), Sidney Rice (66/88), Braylon Edwards
(59/79), Doug Baldwin (50/67), Ben Obamanu (9/12), Charly Martin (8/11), Zach Miller
(67/89), Anthony McCoy (26/35)
Week 2 – (64 plays) Wilson (64/100), Lynch (43/67), Turbin (11/17), Washington (7/11),
Robinson (26/41), Golden Tate (33/52), Rice (33/52), Obomanu (27/42), Baldwin (18/28),
Edwards (9/14), McCoy (47/73), Miller (45/70), Evan Moore (21/33).
Week 3 – (56 plays) Wilson (56/100), Lynch (48/86), Turbin (2/4), Washington (1/2), Robinson
(19/34), Tate (46/82), Rice (44/79), Martin (30/54), Obomanu (12/21), Edwards (4/7), Miller
(37/66), McCoy (18/32), Moore (17/30).
Week 4 – (61 plays) Wilson (61/100), Lynch (44/72), Turbin (10/16), Robinson (22/36), Rice
(50/82), Tate (45/74), Baldwin (24/39), Obomanu (20/33), Edwards (5/8), Miller (48/79),
McCoy (31/51), Moore (3/5).
(45/69), Tate (41/63), Obamanu (22/34), Baldwin (16/25), Edwards (10/15), Miller (59/91),
McCoy (27/42), Moore (8/12).
Robinson (15/26), Rice (49/86), Tate (47/82), Baldwin (21/37), Obomanu (13/23), Edwards
(5/9), Miller (53/93), McCoy (20/35), Moore (8/14)
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Fantasy Articles
Robinson (25/45), Rice (43/77), Tate (34/61), Obomanu (27/48), Edwards (12/21), Baldwin
(8/14), Miller (48/86), McCoy (22/39), Moore (8/14).
Week 8 – (56 plays) Wilson (56/100), Lynch (35/62), Turbin (13/23), Washington (2/4), Tate
(49/88), Rice (48/86), Martin (25/45), Obomanu (14/25), Miller (55/98), McCoy (22/39), Moore
(2/4).
Week 9 – (75 plays) Wilson (75/100), Lynch (50/67), Turbin (20/27), Robinson (28/37), Tate
(69/92), Rice (64/85), Baldwin (32/43), Martin (14/19), Jermaine Kearse (3/4), Miller (63/84),
McCoy (29/39), Moore (3/4)
Robinson (21/29), Rice (50/69), Tate (50/69), Baldwin (30/42), Edwards (22/31), Kearse
(11/15), Miller (68/94), McCoy (37/51), Moore (1/10).
(48/84), Tate (47/82), Baldwin (18/32), Edwards (9/16), Kearse (5/9), Miller (53/93), McCoy
(32/56), Moore (6/11).
Robinson (13/18), Rice (68/96), Tate (67/94), Baldwin (36/51), Edwards (14/20), Miller (67/94),
McCoy (25/35), Moore (1/1).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Wilson (39/57), Flynn (30/43), Turbin (29/42), Lynch (21/30),
Washington (15/22), Robinson (28/41), Baldwin (49/71), Tate (48/70), Rice (44/64), Kearse
(21/30), McCoy (41/59), Miller (33/48), Moore (16/23).
Week 15 – (58 plays) Wilson (54/93), Flynn (4/7), Lynch (25/43), Turbin (22/38), Washington
(6/10), Robinson (17/29), Tate (45/78), Baldwin (38/66), Rice (38/66), Kearse (16/28), Miller
(48/83), McCoy (31/53), Moore (4/7).
Week 16 – (65 plays) Wilson (62/95), Flynn (3/5), Lynch (47/72), Turbin (17/26), Robinson
(22/34), Baldwin (53/82), Tate (49/75), Rice (25/38), Kearse (17/26), Deon Butler (7/11), Miller
(51/78), McCoy (30/46), Sean McGrath (7/11).
(50/83), Tate (47/78), Baldwin (41/68), Kearse (4/7), Miller (58/97), McCoy (25/42), McGrath
(1/2).
~ end ~
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2013 Sleeper Preview
Fantasy Impact: Pass-Catching RBs
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Fantasy football titles are won by maximizing the assets of a roster, squeezing out every ounce
of point production available. Some luck is involved and planning is a must in order to set up
lucky opportunities. One way to creatively uncover hidden fantasy points is by expanding the
utilization potential of the players occupying roster space; can’t score without the football inhand. Quarterbacks need to be dropping back and tossing the rock, receivers have to be targeted
and running backs require regular handoffs. In today’s gridiron philosophies of offense pass
attempts are rising and pass receptions are trending upward while the number of weekly handoffs
to tailbacks continues a downward projection. The one-dimensional “feature” back that plodded
along relying mainly on grounding out production by carrying the ball twenty-plus times a game
has transformed into a more swift and well-rounded athlete that “touches” the football through
various means. Handoffs and quick pitches to the flanks still serve as the baseline of tailback
utilization, but in today’s up-tempo offenses running backs that run routes, can get down-field,
catch the football and create in space are key weapons. Pass-catching running backs are now the
‘feature’ backs. In fantasy football circles, route-running, pass-catching backs are starting lineup
gold as well as roster liquidity. The gradual rise to prominence by the sporty good-hands
tailbacks has altered fantasy owners’ draft planning and targeting in the past couple of seasons.
The growing importance of the versatile ball carrier that can double as a receiver in today’s game
adds a jolt of excitement, depth and flexibility on fantasy football rosters as well as on the real
sidelines. Pro coaches utilize their primary and secondary backs in more creative and unique
designs. The game has evolved into a passing one, and those Mastermind offensive architects of
the NFL have made it a point to “feature” the running back position as key contributors in their
overland attack schemes.
Like the traditional ground-bound backs of the recent past, there are different pass-catching
backs excelling in many roles, displaying various degrees of talent, style, purpose and
performance. These backfield pros are third-down options, the safety valve, security blanket,
space makers and mismatch-makers for quarterbacks. Pass-catching running backs fall into three
performance categories: Play-makers, Chain-movers and Safety valve. Playmakers are explosive
backs that can ‘take it to the house’ on any given snap, striking fear in the opposing defense.
Simply put, the Play-makers are a coach’s weapon and other than quarterback, they are the
weapon of choice for fanballers. Speed, elusiveness, consistent use of hands in catching the
football and the ability to run sharp, fluid routes at mid-range and deeper make up the profile of
this explosive instant offense point getter. In the NFL, the playmaking tailback has become a top
red-zone touch target. Red-zone touches are fantasy football gold. Chain-movers tend to be wellrounded ball carriers that possess modest skills, reliable hands, responsible pass-blocking ability
and a nose for the ‘sticks’. Chain-movers often are adequate in speed and moves, and can be
quite effective should they be pressed into full-time duty. They bring depth as fantasy value with
the spot-start during bye weeks or an advantageous matchup. Safety valve types might be called
a quarterbacks last resort. They may not have the greatest skill set, yet they ‘compile’ aboveaverage reception totals. These backs are the dump-off; the last read a QB makes when all else in
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the pass route tree has broken down. These mostly stay-at-home rushers often possess limited
speed or escapability, and hardly create extra yards after the catch. Their numbers often don’t
equate to making a difference in fantasy football contests on a weekly basis.
Here is a breakdown of the pass-catching running backs readying for action in 2013 and their
various methods of expected deployment.
THE PLAYMAKERS:
The A-List
Jamal Charles, Chiefs
LeSean McCoy, Eagles
Ray Rice, Ravens
Darren Sproles, Saints
CJ Spiller, Bills
Doug Martin, Buccaneers
Reggie Bush, Lions
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Matt Forte, Bears
The B-List:
Shane Vereen, Patriots
Isaiah Pead, Rams
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Chris Johnson, Titans
Arian Foster, Texans
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
David Wilson, Giants
Daryl Richardson, Rams
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Jamaal Charles is giddy over his prospects for success in 2013. Former Eagle boss Andy Reid
now calls the plays for the Kansas City offense and Charles now gets to perform under the best
offensive minds he’s ever played for as a pro. Coach Reid’s famed hybrid West Coast schemes is
getting a bit of a make-over this season with the help of former Nevada University Pistol offense
innovator Chris Ault. The new aggressive, up-tempo playbook utilizes a fast, versatile running
back that can line up all over the field and be a force in the passing game. Jamal Charles fits the
profile to the letter. The KC Comet is a consistent hands-catcher and aggressively smooth route
runner. It is well known that Coach Reid had molded his former Philly tailbacks Brian
Westbrook and LeSean McCoy into high-scoring, dangerous fantasy football producers. McCoy
has averaged 5.4 targets and 4.3 catches a game over the last three seasons, tallying 180 catches
and eight receiving TDs in that span. One can understand Charles’ excitement about suiting up
for the 2013 slate. Set to soar in Coach Reid’s new West Coast Pistol (WCP), Jamal Charles
LeSean “Shady” McCoy, Eagles
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2012 was considered by most a down season for Philly’s LeSean McCoy. Injuries (concussion)
slowed the multi-threat tailback, forcing four missed games and prior to the season former Eagle
coach Andy Reid vowed to cut back on McCoy’s workload. Yet through physical ailments and
Coach Reid’s hollow “promise” of work reduction, McCoy tallied up an average of 21.2 touches
per game last season, down from his 21.4 touch average in 2011; that hardly qualifies as a
reduction. In fact, McCoy’s target average per game rose from 4.6 a contest to 5.6 per;
OUTSTANDING! Enter 2013 and the dawn of the Chip Kelly era in the City of Brotherly Love.
Coach Kelly is widely known for his creative use of running backs, and he gets a dynamo to
work with in LeSean McCoy. McCoy is a fine pass receiver who brings down most targets his
way, even though he does not usually get his hands extended far from his body when pulling the
football in. McCoy mostly cradles the rock as it arrives rather than pluck it, but is rarely late with
his hands. With the ball in-hand, the Eagle halfback is a shifty, shady runner that gains big
chunks of yards leading to those beautiful added fantasy “points after catch” (PAC?- hey, new
terminology!). The Philly rusher is quite adept at setting up the screen, getting north in a hurry,
following his blocks and then exploding into daylight. McCoy showcases keen cut-back and
direction changing ability, often forcing several would-be tacklers to miss, but tends to get a bit
sloppy with his full-speed footwork, forcing a loss of balance in his re-direct. The good news
here is that loss of balance usually comes 10-15 yards upfield, and your FFB points are already
in the bag. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy is set for a big season in Coach Kelly’s innovative
scheme. His volume of receptions may take a bit of a hit in 2013, but the big plays and
subsequent touchdowns are on the rise.
Ray Rice, Ravens
Baltimore’s PPR machine continues to be the go-to guy in the Raven offense that rarely leaves
the field. Rice is a playmaking pass catcher that is a must-have in fantasy football. Possessing
game-breaking ability and ample opportunity, Rice is likely to see his receiving totals hit career
highs in 2013. Baltimore coaches are talking up Rice stand-in Bernard Pierce in the off-season,
extolling his aggressive running style and promising more game action. While that scenario may
play out it will hardly limit Ray Rice’s fantasy value. The Ravens lost QB Joe Flacco’s best
receiver to free agency, Anquan Boldin, leaving Rice as Flacco’s most reliable pass-receiving
target this season. Rice’s catch total dropped by fifteen (76 to 61) in 2012 and his targets also
saw a noteworthy decrease (104 to 83). However, don’t underestimate the void left by Boldin’s
departure. The Ravens top three wideouts (Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones and Tommy Streeter) are
mostly field-stretchers that are seldom utilized between the hash-marks. TE Dennis Pitta
assumes that role, but Boldin’s 112 targets need to relocate somewhere… hello Ray Rice! His
three-year catch average is 66.7 and the multi-threat back is sure to blow by that average in
2013. His rushing attempts have actually declined the past three seasons (308-291-257), and that
trend may continue this season. However, Ravens Coach Harbaugh knows where his offenses
bread is buttered, and getting the football into Ray Rice’s hands is a must. Rice has breakaway
ability, is an excellent route runner and a red zone demon. Rice is a blue-chip top-three overall
draft choice who is currently being selected later in the first round of mock drafts… a fantasy
football steal if ever there was one.
Darren Sproles, Saints
The New Orleans mighty mite was once again instant offense in 2012 and the year-long
suspension of HC Sean Payton had little effect on Sproles’ stat lines. In-fact, stand-in head coach
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Pete Carmichael out-did Coach Payton’s aggressive style last season. On the surface Sproles
2012 reception total (75) appears to be a down-tick from his 2011 work. However, the
diminutive sparkplug missed three contests and his catch rate, played out over sixteen games,
measures a lofty and would-be career high (92). A Sproles value fantasy coaches often gloss
over is his ability to cross the goal line. Last season the Saints pass-catcher supreme totaled eight
scores (1 rushing- 7 receiving), and has tallied up seventeen TDs over the past two seasons (3
ground- 14 air). OUTSTANDING! Another fact many fail to realize is the number of yards from
scrimmage Sproles creates; he has amassed 2224 total offensive yards over the past two seasons.
There will be some concerns about his age (30) and years of pro service (8), but Sproles doesn’t
carry the usual abusive mileage of bigger running backs. Plug-n-play with confidence. Coach
Payton returns in 2013 and has made it known that the Saints will run the football more. Fear not
Sproles fans, as that only means more touches/carries for the speedy tailback. Darren Sproles is
set for another outstanding season, and is PPR gold for fantasy football crazies.
CJ Spiller, Bills
Big things began to happen in 2012 for Spiller. Before last season Spiller was tossed around the
offense from RB, to WR, back to RB and the results were underwhelming. Once allowed to
remain as a backfield constant the light came on. Spiller displayed the game-breaking speed and
explosive pass-catching ability, closing out the year with 43 receptions and an outstanding 10.7
YPR. A prime TOUCH 15 back this season, Spiller will see his heaviest workload as a pro and
his catch total in new head coach Doug Marrone’s up-tempo/run-first offense should soar. The
“run-first” tag won’t affect the former Clemson star. The fact that the Bills will likely have shortpassing Kevin Kolb or rookie EJ Manuel at QB only improves Spiller’s reception potential for
the upcoming season. Another factor that raises Spiller’s pass receiving fantasy value in 2013 is
the mostly green wide receiver stable Buffalo has assembled. The Bills will likely field three
rookies (Robert Woods, Da’Rick Rogers and Marquis Goodwin) this season and a second season
“vet” (TJ Graham); Steve Johnson is the only quality veteran WR. CJ Spiller’s game-breaking
speed and ability to line up anywhere in formation, including outside, means opportunity and
mismatches in abundance. 50-plus catches can be expected for the Buffalo playmaker in 2013,
with an outstanding yards-per-reception average as a FFB bonus.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers
HC Greg Schiano likes Doug Martin… a lot! Martin displayed all-around football skills in his
rookie campaign, utilized as a pass receiver, a dependable and tough runner and a rock on pass
protect. Doug Martin never comes off the field. Schiano traded back into the first round of the
2012 draft specifically to select Doug Martin and the player met and exceeded his first-round
expectations. The Tampa Bay tailback snagged 49 passes last season, for a solid 9.6 YPR while
also rushing for 1454 yards (4.6 YPC). Martin is not blessed with great long-speed, however he
has a quick burst and will not be tackled on first contact. The offense is centered around the
tailback known as “Muscle Hamster”, and his use in the passing game should increase in 2013.
Coach Schiano will look to preserve his star attraction by cutting back on the over 300 carries,
shifting Martin in space and reducing the wear-n-tear. Another factor that should bolster Doug
Martin’s receiving potential is the Buccaneers iffy tight end situation. Dallas Clark was not
brought back, leaving Luke Stocker and Tom Crabtree taking most of the TE snaps. Neither has
proven to be target magnets and Martin will most likely be running some of the mid-range lanes
Dallas Clark patrolled last season. Opportunity continues to grow for Doug Martin, both as a
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runner and a receiver. The Ray Rice clone (but a better blocker) never leaves the field and is an
integral part of the Buccaneer passing game. His good hands and clean route running have
earned the confidence of his coaches and quarterback, and fantasy owners can be just as
confident with Doug Martin rubber-stamped in a starting lineup weekly.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
Here’s a stat many football followers may not realize; in 2012 Lion running backs were targeted
137 times. Reserve tailback Joique Bell saw 69 of those pass intentions and hauled in 52 passes.
That is impressive for a part-time player. Plodding Mikel Leshoure had 48 tosses his way,
snagging 34 of those. Joique Bell is no Reggie Bush when it comes to physical skills, and that is
not a knock on Bell. Mikel Leshoure is not even close to Bush’s game. A couple of seasons ago
the Lions had an offensive plan in place that expected to feature the playmaking talents of Jahvid
Best. Best’s concussion woes threw a wrench into those plans, but now Reggie Bush is in Detroit
to revive the Best-inspired playbook. In his two seasons at Miami, finally as a fulltime tailback,
Bush compiled 2671 yards from scrimmage, including 588 receiving. The former Dolphin added
15 total TDs (3 receiving) and 78 catches and played a 16 game slate for the first time since his
rookie year. Reggie Bush seems to be a darn good “running” back. He is still a top-shelf receiver
and route-runner. Though his catch total dropped a bit in 2012 (43 to 35), Bush raised his YPR
from 6.9 to 8.3, scoring two receiving TDs in the process. In Miami Bush was expected to run
more inside lanes and while he met the challenge well-enough, that is not his game. Getting to
the flanks and creating mismatches is the Reggie Bush way, and the Lions offense is planning on
utilizing the still-fleet running back as such. Detroit has Leshoure on board to handle the tough
yards situations, so Bush should be fresher and available for more explosive opportunities. It is
no secret that the Lions put the football in the air more than any team in the NFL and that suits
Bush just fine. Remember, 137 Lion RB targets in 2012; Reggie Bush now is the point man in
that part of the Detroit playbook. Bush took down 35 balls last season and he could double that
number in 2013.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Darren McFadden is a playmaking, pass catching tailback that has A-List skills, but his lack of
ability to stay on the field flips his value to the B-side. Health and opportunity are the biggest
keys to quality production for McFadden and his potential fantasy owners. McFadden can be a
top 3 fantasy running back if he found a way to keep off the sidelines with various maladies.
McFadden is explosive but recently he’s his forays into the o-line have lacked conviction and
confidence. The Raiders are changing the offensive scheme (again) moving back to a powerbased theme. A change at QB also is in effect, with Carson Palmer moving on and Doug Flynn
the likely starter. Flynn is short on arm-strength and will be a check down, short range passer,
and that brings McFadden fully into the offensive spotlight as a pass receiver. Blessed with good
hands and breakaway speed, DMC still is one of the best playmaking, pass-catching running
backs in the NFL. He is quite comfortable lining up outside at WR, and his size (6’2-210)
qualifies as a legit “big” WR. Playing inured in most of his twelve appearances on the field last
year, McFadden’s YPR dropped to a career low 6.1 after averaging over 10 a catch the past three
seasons. Despite his limited health and an ill-fitting offensive scheme, the Raider tailback tallied
42 receptions (3.5 per game). If he wasn’t the centerpiece of the offense before, he surely is now.
McFadden’s surrounding talent in the skill positions is paper thin and it is obvious new OC Greg
Olsen is counting heavily on DMC’s performance. If the oft-injured back stays clean, he will be
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one of fantasy football’s top backs as well as a top five pass receiving threat. Health-willing, the
explosive Darren McFadden will provide fanballers with top quality fantasy results and with his
game-breaking ability DMC may not need an inordinate number of touches to get the job done.
Darren McFadden proclaims he is “prove it” mode for 2013; might be just the right time to hop
in the DMC wagon.
Matt Forte, Bears
Marc Trestman is in as the Bears new head coach, and he will have a heavy influence in the
play-calling for 2013. Trestman is thought to be an offensive innovator with an affinitive eye for
Matt Forte’s skills. “I just got done looking at all his catches from 2010,” said Trestman. “He
was on the line of scrimmage, he was running out of the backfield, he is great in space. He has a
skill set that goes full spectrum of what you want out of a running back. … You can make all the
different kinds of throws to him.” That says about all you need to know about Forte’s potential
workload in 2013. Running backs with Forte’s size (6’1-220) usually are utilized as secure
chain-movers, gaining the tough yards and providing pass protection. While he is a noted willing
blocker, Forte breaks the big-back mold by finding ways down-field and creating big plays. His
2012 numbers were down from his norm, but that happens in a stale Mike Tice written playbook.
Tice rolled in promising an aggressive plan, but that never took hold. Forte is a running back that
works well on deep routes and that rarely happened last season. With Coach Trestman calling the
shots, the 2013 promise is a return to getting Matt Forte heavily involved in the passing game, in
creative formations and mismatches. The Chicago tailback isn’t as flashy as KC’s Jamaal
Charles or shifty like Philly’s LeSean McCoy, but he does possess sure hands, excellent route
execution, above average speed and the coaching staff’s attention. Coach Trestman also is set on
having QB Jay Cutler getting the football out of his hands in quicker fashion, which should lead
to more targets headed Forte’s way. Like all running backs, health is a bit of a concern, but for
2013, the call is get all you can from Matt Forte and if a full slate of games is met, this excellent
pass catcher will bring top-shelf fantasy production.
Shane Vereen, Patriots
Shane Vereen looks like one of those talents that is in the right place at the right time. These are
exciting times in New England, some for the wrong reasons (Aaron Hernandez). The Patriots are
fearlessly undergoing a wholesale change in the pass-receiving corps and at the same time
juggling a very unsettled tight end situation. Gone via free agency is long-time Tom Brady fave
Wes Welker from his slot position, versatile RB Danny Woodhead headed to sunny San Diego,
deep threat wideout Brandon Lloyd was not brought back, Rob Gronkowski continues major
injury woes and Aaron Hernandez was released. While the receiving situation looks grim in New
England, ever resilient Coach Bill Belichick hasn’t uttered a single word of concern or worry.
No coach in the game today practices the “next man up” philosophy better than wild Bill. Who
was Wes Welker before coming to the Pats? Woodhead converted from a NY Jets camp wideout
to a solid pass-catching running back. Gronkowski? A good college player but no one expected
the numbers he’s put up as Patriot. Hernandez gained league and fantasy football attention by
being re-created as a multi-faceted TE-WR-RB-FB weapon from the tight end alignment.
Adding up the 2012 pass reception totals of those key ex-Patriots (including Gronkowski due to
his unstable health situation), New England has to find a place for 354 Tom Brady completions.
THREE-HUNDRED AND FIFTY FOUR RECEPTIONS NOW NEED A HOME IN NEW
ENGLAND! Coach Belichick plans ahead, and usually has a well-defined timeline of when a
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plan is to be implements. Shane Vereen’s time is now. Vereen is another of those California
Golden Bear (Marshawn Lynch, Jahvid Best, Justin Forsett) tailbacks that can do it all,
aggressively as well as skillfully. The third-season tailback is an excellent route runner that can
line up outside and mimic wide receiver moves and hands. A consistent hands-catcher, Vereen
possesses legit 4.49 by 40 speed, is just as fast with the ball in his hands and refuses to give up
on a play. What is most impressive is his vision and ability to see open lanes, consistently hit his
cut-back opportunities and use that keen vision in getting open in pass routes. Vereen hit the
football spotlight during last season’s playoffs, logging 124 yards from scrimmage (83 receiving)
and scoring three TDs (2 receiving) in the divisional tilt versus Houston. This off-season Coach
Belichick’s 2011 2nd rounder has been lining up in the hybrid formations created for the
departed Hernandez. The obvious variation this season is where Hernandez was a TE with some
rushing skills, Shane Vereen is a tailback with elite football catching mitts. Right place at the
right time… just the way Coach Belichick planned it.
Isaiah Pead, Rams
NFL GMs and head coaches don’t burn second round draft picks on players without big plans in
mind. Players coming into the pros with that kind of draft day pedigree are afforded every
chance to show what they can do. This is the situation St. Louis’ 2012 second round draft pick
Isaiah Pead finds himself in. The Rams’ second year running back has the most important
variable any player needs to breakout in the NFL… opportunity. Pead already owns the
necessary skills to become a fantasy star; top-end speed (4.39 x 40), excellent vision, consistent
good hands away from his body at reception, confidence in route running and a burning
competitive edge in his makeup. Pead was the lead back at University of Cincinnati but was not
burdened by heavy carry totals (237 his personal high) and brings fresh and energized legs to the
pro ranks. St. Louis allowed aging warrior Steven Jackson and his 172 targets over the last three
seasons walk via free agency, opening the doors for the fast and furious rusher. Fellow 2012
rookie Daryl Richardson saw much more quality action than Pead last season and will compete
for touches. However, while Richardson made a case for his own chances to start in 2013, he
clearly wore down as the season progressed. Isaiah Pead is sudden, hard to knock off his feet, an
excellent receiver and has superior long-speed. QB Sam Bradford has shown a great propensity
to check down to his backs over his young career, and with a healthy dose of snaps Isaiah Pead is
set for a breakout season as a TOUCH-15 back as well as a game-breaking 35-45 catch tailback.
Comparing favorably to the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles in explosiveness and utilization, Pead has
had experience in various receiving formations including lining up as a slot receiver and out
wide. He shows very good hands, uses them to haul the ball in rather than body the ball and
adjusts well to the ball in the air. The Rams sophomore back is a quick “catch-n-go” receiver, in
that he snaps the ball quickly out of the air and turns upfield without hesitation. With his
explosiveness that leads to added fantasy football points. The 2nd year back is fiery competitive,
outwardly expressing his emotions and excitement for the game and his own work. As a rookie
Isaiah Pead didn’t see much action, netting just 10 total carries, but for a solid 5.4 a pop (54
yards). His running in that small sample was just as he showcased University of Cincinnati;
decisive, tough, fast and a “get north in a hurry” mind-set. No doubt Isaiah Pead will have to
earn his playing time in 2013. He begins the season with a one-game suspension, but Coach
Fisher was already aware of that fact and has publically stated the suspension will have no
bearing on Pead’s chances to win the starting gig. St. Louis drafted Isaiah Pead with a plan in
mind. Steven Jackson was allowed to sign elsewhere and the offense has been redesigned for
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speed and up-tempo action with a quick-hitting passing attack. Isaiah Pead is speed, up-tempo
action and fits in the passing scheme of the 2013 Rams.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
If only this gifted Dallas ball carrier could find a way to stay on the field of play! DeMarco
Murray is a fast (4.41x40) tailback with soft hands, excellent receiving technique and natural
route running vision. Murray tallied up 157 college receptions in his Kansas St. career, with a
spectacular 71 in his final season. The former K-Stater burst onto the NFL scene in weeks 7 and
8 of the 2011 season, exploding for 327 yards rushing in his first two starts and went on to haul
in 20 passes over the next four games. Make no mistake, his spectacular introduction to the
league in 2011was no fluke; Murray is a playmaker. Though he has a bit of an injury history the
Cowboy tailback runs effortlessly and is capable of producing top ten scrimmage numbers if he
can stay on the field. In his first two seasons the Cowboy back has missed nine games (3 in 2011,
6 last season). The Dallas offense is a pass-first scheme, and Murray’s utilization is key both as a
runner and receiver. Now comfortable in the Cowboy playbook, the third year rising star has 60plus catch potential with the breakaway skills to create special NFL Network cutaway moments.
With a fast and fluid style, Murray is more of a glider than a fast-twitch runner, tending to roll
into his cuts and breaks, similar to the way former Colt great Edgerrin James got it done. After
returning from his foot injury last season, Murray closed out the 2012 campaign by hauling in
four catches in four of his last five games. He is most effective between the twenties, but
struggles to find the endzone with any consistency, run or receiving. Heading into 2013, like
most running backs, Murray needs to stay healthy and available. He has A-List skills and huge
upside and there is ample opportunity by playing in Dallas’ pass-happy offense. ALA Darren
McFadden, DeMarco Murray is a dynamite fantasy weapon coming out of the backfield and
makes for an explosive dual-threat RB2 in fantasy football lineups.
Chris Johnson, Titans
Last season the Titan offense was supposed to feature a more aggressive air attack… NEVER
HAPPENED! Deposed OC Chris Palmer bored the heck out of his players and fanballers with
his stale, unimaginative play-calling. Palmer… OUT! QB coach Dowell Loggains has the job
and the young playcaller is expected to open it up. That should get the fleet Chris Johnson back
into being a big play threat and more involved in the passing attack. Johnson has been a
headache for his virtual coaches and on field bosses the past couple of seasons, taking plays off
and looking for the big hitter rather than taking what is blocked. His “want” in the passing game
has also waned as he has been slow to get into his routes and at times indifferent sliding out to
the flats after making his blitz reads. However, fanballers need to remember the electric skill set
the Titan tailback possesses. Johnson is still as fast as ever and is a sharp pass receiver with very
good hands and technique. While he does have great speed and is a home-run threat in space,
Johnson is more of a traditional running back that rarely lines up outside and wide. He is most
effective as a receiver darting to the flanks, taking the football in stride as he turns up-field and
then exploding to daylight. He is consistent in getting his hands out from his body, leading to
clean catches and displaying confidence in handling the football. What Chris Johnson needs
most is more opportunity in the air attack. Last season the Titan back saw just 49 targets, down
by 30 from 2011; in the previous three seasons CJ averaged 50 receptions a season. That is
unacceptable and OC Loggains understands that fact. As crisp a route runner as Johnson is, and
sporting breakaway speed, the fleet back disappoints in his ability to get to the endzone after the
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catch; he has just one TD catch in the last three seasons (over 137 receptions). Better use of
Johnson’s speed and hands in the redzone could change that along with a full season of play by
big-armed passer Jake Locker. Locker’s ability to go long and create defensive shifts with his
mobility may also shake Chris Johnson loose for big plays after the catch. Again, key is
Johnson’s commitment to not giving up on plays and working to find open lanes when Locker is
on the run. Attitude and intensity is the call for Chris Johnson to turn his excellent pass catching
skills into fantasy friendly production in 2013
Arian Foster, Texans
Arian Foster knows his way to the endzone, running or receiving. The Houston workhorse has
scored six TD catching the football over the past three seasons. A little alarming is his huge
touch-log (1114 over three campaigns) and the three-season decline in receptions (66-53-40).
Still, Foster is a playmaker who methodically churns out yards from scrimmage and hits the
stripe consistently. He is not built on speed and finesse, but the former Volunteer of Tennessee
‘earns’ big plays by shedding tacklers and then finding that extra gear once in the clear. Foster
runs smoothly and sports soft hands. Many of his catches are of the short, dump-off variety in
which the 230 pounder can turn up field and break off big gains. Coach Gary Kubiak
traditionally targets his running backs heavily in the passing game. That will follow in 2013.
Even with a talented understudy like Ben Tate getting some touches, Arian Foster will grab 45 50 balls and once again pile up yards-from-scrimmage for his fantasy owners.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
2000 yard rushers usually don’t have the time or energy to get involved in an offenses passing
game. Adrian Peterson somehow worked his way into Minnesota’s air attack by pulling down
forty Christian Ponder tosses last season. AP’s 51 targets were the second highest of his career,
which is quite an accomplishment considering he also carried the football 348 times, again
second most in his pro career. Peterson is not a true pass-catching back in the sense of being able
to run crisp routes or demonstrate clean hands technique, however when a tailback of his
powerfully explosive skill set is tracking down 40 passes in a season, he needs to be included as
a playmaker. Peterson’s recent history suggests he isn’t much of a game-breaker as a receiver,
but again, a runner with his potential to explode over, through or past defenders in space on any
touch qualifies the Viking rusher as a fantasy football difference maker. AP has scored at least
one receiving TD in the past three campaigns. Many fanballers wouldn’t slot the NFL’s rushing
king as a pass-catching running back, but his expansion in the Viking air attack is there for all to
see and has to be addressed. After the incredible workload Peterson experienced in 2012, it
wouldn’t be too big of a stretch to project his carries to drop some while his receptions grow; a
bit of a preservation move by Viking coaches.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
Lamar Miller is one of the new guys on the pass-catcher block. Miller is set to go the full-service
route as he takes over for departed multi-purpose Reggie Bush. Miller is a tailback on the come
and ready to stake a claim as a fantasy football star this season. The second year pro is a fast and
persevering runner who never gives up on a play. Miami’s new backfield weapon is a good route
runner, patient in setting up the screen and uses his hands well to snap the ball out of the air; he
is an attractive snap-n-go receiver. Possessing excellent field vision and running instincts, Miller
sees and follows his blocking well and gets to his breakaway gear in a hurry when the open lane
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appears. Last season as a rookie Miller rarely saw passing down-n-distance snaps due to a lack
of effective pass protection recognition and the fact that Reggie Bush is one the NFL’s best
receiving backs. Miller has attacked his pass blocking deficiencies with a passion this off-season
and his coaches have taken note. Bush, of course, if now in Detroit. Miami has revamped the
offense to suit young QB Ryan Tannehill, an effort not only to create more big plays but also to
protect the franchise’s investment in their star passer. Miller is sure to be a big part of the
protection project by making himself available on quick flares, shuttles and screens. Once the
ball is in his hands, it’s go time. A 50-plus catch season isn’t out of reason for Lamar Miller in
2013 and with his surprising power and mature approach the results will be rewarding for
fantasy owners.
David Wilson, Giants
David Wilson is getting a whole lot of fantasy football love in the off-season. NY Giant
backfield staple Ahmad Bradshaw now wears a horseshoe on his helmet and Wilson has been
handed the starting gig. The sophomore rusher has explosive speed and the Giants use their
backs often in screen packages and check-down progressions. While Wilson’s physical attributes
are impressive, particularly his speed, he displays an immature feel for the running game and his
pass receiving technique needs work. New York’s new workhorse is impatient with the football
in his hands, often racing past his blocking or changing direction at the first sign of traffic.
Wilson won’t shy away from contact, but his lack of vision and anxiousness forces him to
abandon plays before the blocking takes shape. This is not the best way to run screens in the
NFL as successful backs most often allow the play to flow and evolve in front of them. As a
pass-catcher the second year running back lets the ball into his body far too often, creating a few
balls to bounce off shoulder pads or slip through arms. He is also a bit sloppy with the football
in-hand as his early fumbling issues have been well documented. So why is David Wilson on
the playmakers list? As immature as his game is, Wilson is a big-play threat at any time in the
game, anywhere on the field. The volatile ball carrier can have a negative run or pass play one
snap and hit a home run the next. With that kind of game-breaking potential he will be involved
in the passing game and has to be included in any talk of pass-catching backs with playmaking
ability. Wilson will have to clean up his pass protection and his ball security, but the Giants
committed to Wilson once they allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to walk. David Wilson is not a thing
of beauty in his technique, but he is some kind of dangerous with the ball in his hands.
Daryl Richardson, Rams
As a freshman with the Rams in 2012, Daryl Richardson did well for himself and his pro future.
The younger brother of former Bengals RB Bernard Scott and current Jets WR Clyde Gates runs
with effective speed (4.46x40), some suddenness and has good hands as a receiver. Richardson is
stronger than he appears, particularly strong in his leg drive. The Abilene Christian product
rocked a 40.5 vertical leap and an 11’03 broad jump at his pro day… OUTSTANDING! Though
his measureables are impressive and he grades well in leg strength, Richardson runs with a lack
of power to break through tackles. He does display good wiggle and will make defenders miss,
but tends to slow down in making his moves, cutting away his speed advantages. In many ways
he has a lot of his older brother Bernard Scott in his game in that at times Richardson will dance
behind the line, but he tends to run with a more aggressive attitude than Scott. He also follows
his blockers better when he does stick his foot in the ground, sets up his pass-routes well and will
use his hands consistently as a receiver. Richardson needs to work on his pass-protect and is a
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true liability right now. However he is a fast, multi-skilled running back who can fill a role as a
solid third-down option. Former Rams’ halfback Steven Jackson has moved on to Atlanta, but
standing in Richardson’s path to a bigger role in the St. Louis offense is fellow sophomore Isaiah
Pead. The Rams didn’t burn a 2012 second round pick on Pead to turn him into a change of pace
option, and in the NFL the pedigree draft pick gets the bulk of the opportunities. Daryl
Richardson can get the job done if forced into a bigger role in the passing game. He has the skills
to be effective and the offense compliments Richardson’s skills. He gets on the playmaker list
due to his talent and his 50-catch potential should Pead become incapacitated or a non-factor due
to poor performance. Daryl Richardson has the ability, but opportunity is not quite there yet.
THE CHAIN-MOVERS
Steven Jackson, Falcons
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Trent Richardson, Browns
Mike Goodson, Jets
Freddy Jackson, Bills
Pierre Thomas, Saints
Marcel Reese, Raiders
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Ahmad Bradshaw/ Vick Ballard, Colts
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Steven Jackson, Falcons
Atlanta Falcon RB Steven Jackson… that just sounds too strange. The longtime Rams rusher
now calls Atlanta his home and works in the most dynamic offense of his career. The hope is that
the workhorse running back has enough tread on his wheels to get the job done. SJax goes into
the 2013 season at 30-years of age, a scary number for NFL feature backs. The double whammy
on Jackson is the heavy mileage and abuse he’s absorbed; 2,395 carries, the most of any active
back. The 2nd gear is burnt out and his days as a playmaker out of the backfield are past.
However, Jackson still brings PPR value in a revamped role that will put up fantasy points and
touches a-plenty. He’s not as spry as before but don’t tell him his game is slowing. The Falcons
no doubt will use Jackson as an every down back, and utilize him even on early downs as a
passing option. There is every reason to believe that the veteran runner will improve on his 38
receptions of last year, and in the process find more room to rumble after the catch. A potent
passing game that forces defenses to attend to playmakers Julio Jones, Roddy White and TEsupreme Tony Gonzalez should provide Jackson with ample running room, especially
underneath routes. While SJax no longer has the burners to break off big plays, his volume and
the natural open space he should find in Atlanta translates into quality yards from scrimmage.
Keep in mind that along with his chain moving exploits Jackson should be a goal line demon;
plodding Michael Turner scored 60 rushing TDs over the past five seasons as a Falcon. Steven
Jackson is set up for that one big last fantasy football hurrah, complete with 40-plus catches and
double digit scores.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
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MJD is at a crossroads as far as running backs are concerned. He has logged a lot of tough miles
on those legs of his, he’s battled the injury bug the past two seasons and his 28 years of age is
more advanced than it appears on paper. The wear-n-tear of being an NFL workhorse tailback
has caught up. Once a playmaking pass-catching back, Jones-Drew is fading to the chain-moving
type. Foot injuries and a possible weight issue are putting the brakes on MJD’s ability to break
off big runs and yards after his catches. If he can make a return to form this season MJD will see
many a “save me” dump off from skittish QB Blaine Gabbert. The PPR value is there, but
fantasy footballers have to wonder how much MJD will be able to do with the ball in his hands
after sitting out 12 games in 2012 and the weight of heavy usage on him. Early on in 2013 MJD
will likely be sluggish as he plays his way into shape. If he makes it through the first half in good
shape, fanballers should expect an uptick in his performance. Still, his receiving quality won’t be
that of big plays and long scores, but his PPR value should see an up-tick as Gabbert’s security
blanket. Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t the same player fantasy owners have come to know, and his
2013 value has defined ceilings… dink-n-dunk days are here.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Ryan Mathews had the look of a franchise RB in 2011, breaking the 1000 yard barrier, averaging
4.9 a run and grabbing 50 passes. Then 2012 rolled around and despite proclamations from thencoach Norv Turner that Mathews would lead the NFL in rushing, the bottom drops out and the
perceived playmaking tailback stumbles his way to 3.8 YPC, just 6.5 YPR (down from 9.1 YPR
in ’11) and 1 rushing TD… ICK! His big play ability of 2011 evaporated, especially catching the
football as Mathews rarely shook loose for extra yardage after a catch. Injuries, a concern dating
back to his college days, limited the Charger tailback to 12 games. The hope for 2013 is that
Ryan Mathews little injury file doesn’t open again. Like most backs, he tends to get nicked up,
and he’ll need to learn to play through. San Diego is going through an offensive revamping, from
the line to the skill positions. In 2012 deep threat WR Vincent Jackson flew the SD coop and TD
thief Mike Tolbert moved on to Carolina. Now a new head coach is in place and the San Diego
brass re-stocked the backfield by adding a proven pass-catching running back in Danny
Woodhead. Woodhead will surely cut into Mathews touch count, and so far has been a stand-out
in off-season practices. There are whispers that Ryan Mathews hasn’t learned how to be a pro
and his dedication to the game is less than desired. Mathews has the talent and ability to be a
break away back in the passing game, but has yet learned how to compete at a high level in the
NFL, and thus his playmaking skills fail to materialize. To this point in a still young career, Ryan
Mathews is a flashy chain-mover as a receiver.
Trent Richardson, Browns
They may be hell on cleats in college, but not so hot in the NFL; I’m talking about Alabama
running backs. Lots of praise and attention are heaped on the running back prospects coming out
of ‘Bama the past few years, but they haven’t exactly lit the pro ranks on fire. Any of these
names excite you; Ahmaad Galloway, Shaud Williams, Ken Darby, Terry Grant, Glen Coffee,
Mark Ingram? Trent Richardson? The Browns 2012 prized rookie toughed out an injury plagued
campaign, rushing for over 900 yards and hauling in 51 passes. But his YPC was an anemic 3.6
and his YPR rolled out to a mediocre 7.2. Richardson looks like a poor man’s Ladainian
Tomlinson at first glance, but lacks the daylight darting speed and elusiveness as well as the
route running savvy LT showcased for many years. The 51 catches of a season ago may be
Richardson’s best in his career and a lower reception tally can be expected for 2013. The
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Browns’ bellcow is effective on screens, but is slow to get out to the flats on flares and too rigid
getting downfield and open. Because he is one of Cleveland’s best weapons Trent Richardson is
involved in the passing game. However, his ability to do anything extraordinary as a pass
receiving running back is capped.
Mike Goodson, New York Jets
Oakland let Michael Goodson walk after one season and the New York Jets got the former A&M
Aggie to sign on for 2013. Goodson should share duties with the down-hill running Chris Ivory,
with Goodson being the receiving specialist. Goodson was a solid reserve for the Panthers back
in 2010, hauling in 40 passes that season. The Raiders saw his value as a hedge for the oftinjured Darren McFadden but Goodson himself has battled injuries in his pro career. The Jet
runner possesses potential play-making talents (speed and good hands) but has a few issues in
2013 that will hold him in the chain-moving category. For one, he now plays in a talentchallenged offense, particularly at QB. Another speed bump for Goodson is his own injury
history; he often plays hurt which negates his playmaking ability. New York also has a
competent if less spectacular pass receiving back in Bilal Powell, who will challenge for the
same role Goodson intends to fill. Mike Goodson has flashed, but projecting more than modest
performance results in 2013 would be a reach and not the way to stock a winning fantasy roster.
Fred Jackson, Bills
In 2011, before his untimely injury, Fred Jackson was arguably the best fantasy RB in the game.
AS a rusher he was scintillating, with a 5.5 YPC and six-100 yard games in the ten he played.
FJax also lit it up through the air by snagging 39 footballs at a YPR of 11.3. OUTSTANDING!
Jackson’s pass catching ability is top-shelf, and his lighter workload is sure to translate into a
fresher performer for the year. The reduced workload is due to his advanced age (32), growing
brittleness and the emergence of the spectacular CJ Spiller. Jackson has had his moment in the
sun and now he is quality reserve stock. Probably a half step slower after injury and age, and
playing now in a run-first offense, FJax slides down from playmaker to chain-mover. Spiller now
gets to run the prime big-play routes as he is a superb pass catcher. Spiller owners would be
smart to stash away Freddy Jackson as Spiller’s workload and exposure to the abuse of NFL
defenders increases. Jackson could still provide solid FFB production in an extended string of
games.
Pierre Thomas, Saints
Pierre Thomas is a back with a nose for the end zone and a never-quit running style. Thomas is a
supreme screen receiving tailback who sets up his blocks perfectly and is quick with his catch-ngo technique. He knows his role and plays it to max effort when called upon. Thomas is a
‘tweener hanging between play-maker and chain-mover. The Saints gamer is an opportunist type
back that makes each touch count and has the ability to break for extra yards after catch.
However, he rarely turns those extra yards into long scores, often caught from behind on long
runs or receptions. Lucky Pierre’s value grows in the redone, which is a common occurrence in
New Orleans. He is just as likely to be a target inside the 20 as reception magnet Darren Sproles
Look for the no-nonsense RB to see a bit of an up-tick in carries as Coach Payton promises to
get the run game going in 2013. He still figures in the passing game and brings all-around skills
to that part of the Saints offense.
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Marcel Reece, Raiders
Reece is a converted WR who has packed on the pounds and worked out of mostly the fullback
spot as a pro. Being a former wideout Reece sees open seams well and can uncharacteristically
get downfield consistently. He has solid hands and speed that catches would-be cover defenders
off guard. At 6’3, the speedy fullback also provides a good target for the Raider QBs. His skill
set and past exploits suggest the Oakland pass-catching fullback should be ranked among the
playmakers. In the past three seasons Reece has loaded up 104 receptions for a 10.9 YPR and six
touchdowns; OUTSTANDING! However 2013 brings a change at QB for the Raiders and the
big arm of Carson Palmer has been traded in for the close range caliber arm of Doug Flynn.
Reece is more likely to be catching the football closer to the line of scrimmage this season, and
defenses will have a better opportunity to keep Reece in front of them this season, limiting Reece
to a chain moving option.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Toby Gerhart is a sneaky good receiving back who is nimble inside the 20. Before Adrian
Peterson began walking on water in his 2012 return from IR-ville Gerhart rushed for over 500
yards (4.9 YPC), snagged 23 passes and scored 3 times as AP’s stand-in. The former Stanford
star is a solid mid-range route runner and screen set-up man with a confident set of hands.
Gerhart has fantasy value as a pass-catching hand-cuff to Peterson.
Ahmad Bradshaw/ Vick Ballard, Colts
Though these two Indianapolis running backs differ in build Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard
sport similar playing styles. In the past few seasons Bradshaw has added to his fantasy value by
becoming a solid contributor in the passing game. He isn’t one to haul down 50-plus balls but is
quite effective in the red zone. Bradshaw is familiar working in a muddled backfield and chances
are he needs to be a share time running back due to his numerous foot ailments. Ahmad
Bradshaw will rarely take one to the house, but his hands and savvy as a screen receiver bring
chain-moving confidence to the Colt play calling. Vick Ballard is a bigger tailback but has the
same rugged style of game as Bradshaw. Ballard has workhorse capability, quick, effective
footwork and sure hands. Where Bradshaw has some tough miles on his brittle wheels, Ballard is
fresh and raring to go. Ballard is a no-frills performer, but every once in a while he can provide
an ESPN moment, like his acrobatic, twisting launch to the goal line flag last season that
captured the fancy of football fans everywhere. The two Indy backs should split the 2013
tailback touches, with Vick Ballard being the up-side choice.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Jonathan Stewart is now a and effective pass receiver out of the Carolina backfield (glass-ankles
permitting). Stewart’s 2012 season was once again marred with various ailments, but in 2011 the
Panther running back hauled in 47 footballs and moved into the ranks of pass catching backs. In
2013, as he efforts to work his way back from double ankle surgery, Stewart will be counted on
to supply chain-moving receptions via screens, short-shuttle tosses and quick dump-offs. Prior to
the many lower-body issues Stewart might have been considered playmaking material, but the
seemingly never-ending medical interruptions has capped his ability to consistently hit the big
gainers. Still Stewart possesses considerable running talent and he is likely to produce attractive
fantasy points even with a reduction in the catch column. He is still young (26) and his volume
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of past work/touches is not a burden. The Carolina tailback isn’t a smooth route runner and
rarely is called to run creative patterns.
THE SAFETY VALVE
Frank Gore, 49ers
Frank Gore is still a warrior back but his 50 catch, big-play days are over. LaMichael James and
a returning to health Kendall Hunter now get the play-making calls for ‘Frisco as Coach
Harbaugh wants more dynamic results out of his pass-catching backs. While the 49er lead back
is still a productive runner, his current receiving role is to maintain a drive or two and protect
now-franchise QB Colin Kaepernick.
Mike Tolbert, Panthers
The Carolina bull-rusher is also a superb pass receiver. Tolbert won’t be heading down-field
much in his target opportunities, but he knows how to make himself available to his QB in
pressure situations, staying close to the line of scrimmage as a safety outlet. The burly back has
an ailing (again) Jonathan Stewart and a dependable DeAngelo Williams in front of him, limiting
his chances. Tolbert does figure in on passing downs and key short-yardage situation, especially
near the goal line.
KEEP AN EYE ON:
Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (Chain-mover)
Rodgers is small (5’5”-195), but powerfully built. Caught 142 passes during his Oregon St.
career, including a 78 catch season in 2009. He’s been able to improve his pass protection which
will help him see the field more often.
LaMichael James, 49ers (Playmaker)
An all-purpose type running back now playing in a power blocking scheme with a growing readoption influence in San Francisco . James is a playmaking back with excellent hands and fine
route running chops. The SF tailback has keen vision, runs decisively and is a tough out once
into the second level of the defense. He is a perfect fit in the move offense led by Colin
Kaepernick.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (Chainmover)
Thomas possesses solid pass catching skills but disappoints with the ball in-hand. He’s a bigger
back, measuring around 230, but has nimble feet and reliable hands. Though big Thomas fails to
run with power or speed; a chain-mover more than a playmaker in the passing game.
Alex Green, Packers (Playmaker)
Sometime ya’ gotta’ call ‘em like you see ‘em. The Packers were high on Green as he made his
return from his early 2011 injury. However Green rushed his way back and was never at 100% in
2012. He is an excellent all-around running back, a willing pass blocker and gets into his pass
routes quickly. Sporting good hands and good route running, able hit a 2nd gear and beat
defenders if fully healthy. Green has playmaker ability and if he is let go by the Pack his new
destination could open the doors to a new FFB star.
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Bryce Brown, Eagles (Playmaker)
Bryce Brown plays behind LeSean McCoy, and that may cap his 2013chances to showcase.
However, in a Chip Kelly offense the snap count is fast and plentiful, and the running backs are
used extensively. Brown is a physical beast that ran a 4.37 at his pro day. Rated over Trent
Richardson coming out of high school, Brown can do all things on the field in a dynamic way.
He’s raw and has yet to figure out how to gain yards after the catch as a pro. But Brown bears
keeping an eye on… he’s a talent.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (Playmaker)
Compared to Marshall Faulk, Hillman needs to learn to get his shoulders squared up field and
go. Too much of a dancer so far to make NFL defenders miss. Has good receiving skills, but
needs to learn to run his routes cleaner and must pick up his pass-protect skills a full notch
before being trusted with a more meaningful workload.
Cyrus Gray, Chiefs (talented Chain-mover)
Cyrus Gray may be lost in the Chiefs running back depth charts but his skills fit Coach Reid’s
requirements well. Gray catches well out of the backfield and has enough vision to follow
blocks. He is a solid hands-catcher and has shifty feet. Could be a camp surprise and a 2013
outta-nowhere star if the injury bug ravages KC again.
THE FRESHMEN (rookie ball-hawking backs and the category they will likely fall into)
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (Playmaker)
A well-rounded tailback that can quickly elevate to a feature back role as a freshman. Fast, pure
hands catcher and solid route runner, with a QB that needs a short range playmaker handy.
LeVeon Bell, Steelers (Chain-mover)
The Steeler rookie rusher is big (6’1-plus) and logged a lot of miles at Michigan State last
season. Bell is a confident short-range pass catcher that adds some after-the-catch ability, but
lacks the over-drive to break away for big scores. Bell was a consistent performer in the Spartan
passing game; catching the football is not new to Bell.
Mike Gillislee, Dolphins (Chain-mover)
Gillislee may be the most pro-ready rookie halfback in the 2013 crop. Gillislee is a confident
receiver, a stand-up pass protector and a better-than-average runner. The Miami newcomer isn’t
a burner but runs with conviction and focus. Think Joseph Addai without that extra gear. Could
make Dolphin disappointment Daniel Thomas expendable.
Johnathan Franklin, Packers (Playmaker)
Franklin has multi-dimensional skills and uses them all well. He is not great in any one area, but
is solid enough to play three downs if opportunity presents itself. The Packer rookie needs to
improve in his pass blocking to see more pro snaps, and that can lead to disappointment for those
fanballers who reach here.
Eddie Lacy, Packers (Chain-mover)
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Eddie Lacy gets the first shot at taking first team snaps and is a competent pass catcher. He’ll
have to figure out the speed of NFL defenses and likely will at best just get what is blocked in
year one. Though a big, tough ‘Bama back who gets tough yards, Lacy possesses some nifty feet
and is effective getting outside on screens and swings. He can develop into a playmaker as the
game slows down for him. For now, he’s an up-side chain-mover.
Closing Notes:
Running backs that possess the ability and the opportunity to get into pass patterns outside or
upfield or space provide fantasy football owners a chance for creative point accumulation. Those
pass catching backs that bring speed and elusiveness to the field are lethal weapons as they not
only create additional points but can do it in a hurry. Explosive receiving halfbacks can change
the outcome of a fantasy football contest on a single swing pass, screen set up, shuttle toss or an
opportune wheel route. The beauty of “play making” backs is that they do not need a higher
volume of carries or an abundance of touches to turn an FFB loss into an improbable, comefrom-behind fantasy victory. Home run hitters like Jamal Charles, CJ Spiller, Chris Johnson,
Reggie Bush, David Wilson and Darren Sproles have the game-breaking speed, shiftiness and
wide receiver-like skills to blast a blasé six carries for eighteen yards into seven TOUCHES, 93
yards and a touchdown on a single target. In today’s up-tempo NFL, pass-catching playmakers
out of the backfield are FFB gold. Those tailbacks and a scattered few fullbacks that are valued
as CHAIN-MOVERS should not be overlooked in fantasy drafts. Most of these ball carriers are
very worthy of inclusion in NFL passing schemes; often they lack the track-star speed of the
playmakers. They also all come up short in another most important category for FFB success;
opportunity. Skill players need the football to be standout fantasy producers. Chain-moving
backs tend to see third-down snaps, or take the field in specific down-n-distance situations.
These understated performers also are usually adept in pass protection, often held out of patterns
to pick up blitzing linebackers or kamikaze defensive backs. But given the snaps and quality
action tailbacks such as Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson and Toby
Gerhart could make their fantasy football owners look like geniuses in a playoff stretch run.
They are not flashy but they know how to get the job done and with volume, the results are
fantasy-effective.
Opportunity is key as well as speed, hands and route-running ability. The rosters of NFL teams
are littered with potential game breakers in 2013. Fresh legs are ready to hit the spotlight (Isaiah
Pead, Shane Vereen, Lamar Miller, David Wilson) and the opportunity is there. In the everchanging world of pro football, success comes to those who stay informed, recognize key trends,
act and adapt promptly, daring to win rather than playing it safe. Pass-catching running backs
come in many packages and championship fantasy football coaches will be utilizing these multidimensional weapons on the way to a prosperous season.
~ end ~
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2013 Mastermind Sleepers
(by Michael Nazarek)
Everyone knows about Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The top 50
players taken in most fantasy drafts will likely be the same group of players. What separates the
men from the boys is knowing who will produce when they are not expected to produce. To this
end, I will supply you with sleeper lists of players at each of the key fantasy positions. Consider
each and weigh them against your league competition. I will list sleepers in three distinct
categories… obvious, darkhorses, and long-shots. I have also offered my “deep sleeper” at each
position. Note: The official projected statistics for these players were not posted, as they may
change with each guide update.
The following LONGSHOT SLEEPER was posted on these pages early in AUGUST of 2011.
It just goes to show you that sometimes these players pan out in a HUGE way…
Victor Cruz (New York Giants) – With WR Steve Smith signed in Philadelphia, who will fill the
#3 WR job for the Giants? Cruz appears as one of the possibilities, that is, provided he blows up
in the preseason like he did last year (6-145-3 against the Jets). Remember that one-handed
catch on that long 64-yard TD against the Jets? Anyway, I’ve added him here until someone
else rises to the occasion proving me wrong. He certainly is a long-shot, but one that might pay
off down the road.
Yeah, I’d say he paid off. And I drafted him myself in the 2011 FFWebMasters 14-team experts
league in the final round of my draft. He was a big reason why I made the playoffs. On to this
year’s lists…
QUARTERBACKS
The Obvious
Russell Wilson (Seattle) - Wilson came on in a big way late in his rookie season, nearly pulling
the upset over the Falcons in the playoffs. He'll only get better with experience, as well as new
target WR Percy Harvin. A healthy WR Sidney Rice also helps, and despite the fact the
Seahawks remain dedicated to the run, Wilson will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his
abilities, both in the passing game and via his quick feet.
Eli Manning (New York Giants) - It's interesting how one season can change for two talented
QBs. This time last year, Eli's brother Peyton was listed here coming off multiple neck
surgeries, and we all know how that trurned out. Now, it's Eli's turn. Why is he listed here?
Due to inconsistent play, injuries at wideout, a change at TE, and WR Victor Cruz's contract
situation, Manning is no longer consider a solid fantasy starter. But he has the talent to reclaim
that role. Provided the Giants get on the same page (WRs & TE), Cruz re-signs, and WR
Hakeem Nicks stays healthy, Manning should exceed expectations in 2013.
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati) - Dalton has already shown he can produce big numbers, but he has
yet to do it consistently. In addition, only WR A.J. Green has stepped up his play enough to
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make Dalton a better player. WR Mohamed Sanu flashed, but is returning from injury, while the
team drafted talented rookie TE Tyler Eifert. Perhaps, if Sanu and Eifert develop quickly, and
TE Jermaine Gresham loses his case of the dropsies, the Bengals passing game will raise Dalton
into the top 10 fantasy QBs. Then again, perhaps not. That is what makes Dalton a sleeper.
The Darkhorse
Sam Bradford (St. Louis) – I've listed Bradford here the past two summers and I’m sticking
with him for one more season. Why? His talent has never been in question, and he did rebound
last season to become a top 20 QB, but that is far from where he needs to be in order to become a
solid fantasy starter. WR Danny Amendola is gone, but the Rams added talented TE Jared Cook
to the receiving corps. They also need WR Chris Givens to continue to develop and for WR
Brian Quick to actually break into the starting lineup. These are fairly big IFs, and that is what
keeps Bradford a darkhorse sleeper at best in 2013.
Carson Palmer (Arizona) – Believe it or not, despite the fact the Raiders won just 4 games in
2012, Palmer still threw for 4018 yards and 22 scores, and yet he just missed the top 15 fantasy
QBs. In Arzona, Palmer will be targeting uber-STUD WR Larry Fitzgerald. This fact alone
makes Palmer a darkhorse sleeper, but second-year WR Michael Floyd is showing promise and
WR Andre Roberts and TE Rob Housler are also decent targets. Bottom Line: If you draft a top 5
fantasy QB, you should feel comfortable in waiting until the latter rounds of your draft to take
Palmer as your backup.
Ryan Tannehill (Miami) - Tannehill threw more picks (13) than TDs (12) in 2012, but that
should change in 2013. The addition of big-playmaker WR Mike Wallace and veteran WR
Brandon Gibson along with TE Dustin Keller makes Tannehill a great pick for a breakout player.
The question here is just how big a breakout will he make? The answer is big enough to be
listed here as a darkhorse fantasy sleeper...
The Long-Shot
Matt Flynn (Oakland) – Flynn had a big game in place of a resting QB Aaron Rodgers in Green
Bay late in 2011 and signed a nice deal with the Seahawks in free agency. Unfortunately, QB
Russell Wilson pushed him aside early in camp and he rode the pine, only to be traded to the
Raiders this off-season. With QB Caron Palmer in Arizona, th way is paved for Flynn to step
into the starting role. Granted, his experience is limited and his receiving targets aren't much
outside of WR Denarius Moore. Still, there is hope in Oakland that Flynn can develop quickly
into an effective NFL starting QB. And that makes him a long-short fantasy sleeper.
Jake Locker (Tennessee) - As much as I see the red flags here, the Titans are standing behind
Locker as their starter. His should is said to be 100% healthy and WR Kenny Britt knows he's in
a contract year and is healthy himself. WR Kendall Wright is maturing quickly, and WR Nate
Washington remains on the team, at least at the time of this writing in late June. All this makes
Locker a long-shot fantasy sleeper, just be aware he could also flop and be replaced as the starter
before mid-season.
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Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) - Last year's deep sleeper QB is now a long-shot sleeper, as
Weeden is on shaky ground as the team's starter despite showing some potential as the starter last
year. But this is all about winning, something the Brown continued to fail at in most games last
year. WR Josh Gordon is rapidly growing into a star, while WR Greg Little is finally showing
more consistency in his play. The team is raving about new starting TE Jordan Cameron, so
Weeden has enough quality targets to get the job done, the only question is will he?
The Deep-Sleeper
Chad Henne (Jacksonville) - Henne replaced an injured QB Blaine Gabbert in the latter part of
last year and brought spark to the Jaguars passing game. But this off-season, the Jaguars are still
standing behind Gabbert as their starter. I firmly believe he's not he answer, which will lead to
Henne getting another chance to start. He may not be Peyton Manning, but he's much better than
Gabbert and he's my deep fantasy sleeper at the QB position in 2013.
RUNNING BACKS
The Obvious
Demarco Murray (Dallas) - Yes, Murray has had multiple injury issues in recent years, but he's
expected to be fully healthy by season's start and he is the workhorse back the Cowboys need
and want him to be. Should he stay healthy, he will outpace his current ADP of 30 (middle of
the third round), making him an obvious fantasy sleeper.
Steven Jackson (Atlanta) - S-Jax is no longer a St. Louis Ram, and that is a good thing for his
fantasy fans. As an Atlanta Falcon, he'll see many more goal opportunities to produce. And
while he's getting older, he can still carry the load and catch plenty of passes, something RB
Michael Turner didn't do much of with the Falcons. Bottom Line: Many owners think Jackson is
washed up, but I don't. Waiting and grabbing him if he slides to you as a #3 RB is just crazy, but
I've seen it happen! Heck, even as a #2, he's not bad.
David Wilson (New York Giants) - Wilson was certainly over-hyped last season, and when he
fumbled in week #1, he was barely seen again until late in the season. But RB Ahmad Bradshaw
is gone and RB Andre Brown isn't expected to carry a full workload, meaning Wilson could start
or see most of the pass-catching action on the field. If he learns to block better this summer and
doesn't fumble, he could take over the starting job sooner than later, making him an obvious
fantasy sleeper due to his talent and speed.
Lamar Miller (Miami) - Adios RB Reggie Bush, leaving Miller as the lead dog for the Dolphins
ground game. Yes, RB Daniel Thomas is still on the roster, but most don't see him as a real
threat to Miller. Miller is talented and should earn the starting job this summer, making him a
nice fantasy sleeper and solid #3 fantasy RB option during your draft.
The Darkhorse
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Daryl Richardson (St. Louis) - Richardson slowly pushed RB Steven Jackson aside for much of
2012, and now that S-Jax is gone, the starting job appears his to lose. Although Richardson
didn't make a big splash last year, he did produce enough likely get first crack to earn the starting
job this summer. All he has to do is beat out RB Isaiah Pead, a player suspended for the first
game of the year already. Best of all, he's getting no respect in fantasy drafts, as you can wait
until round #9 or later to take a chance and draft Richardson as your #3 or #4 fantasy RB.
Montee Ball ® (Denver) - The hype machine is starting to go into overdrive already for Ball,
but let's see how he looks in camp before annointing him the new starter. He'll have to beat out
both RB Ronnie Hillman and RB Willis McGahee to take that job, but he certainly has the
pedigree and talent to do it. And if he does, he'll come at a bargain as a 7th round draft pick in
12-team leagues (as of late June).
Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona) - The Cardinals said goodbye to RB Beanie Wells this offseason and RB Ryan Williams is still not 100% coming off a serious shoulder injury. With
Mendenhall basically 100% coming 1.5 years off knee surgery, he is the odds on favorite to win
the starting job. And that makes him a nice #3 fantasy RB option for owners who choose to wait
in their fantasy draft, as well as a solid darkhorse sleeper.
Mark Ingram (New Orleans) – As a big Bama fan, I know this kid well. And I know all the
injuries he's gone through have robbed him of his speed and power. Well, guess what? He's
finally 100% healthy and ready to produce. Best of all, the Saints plan to give him more playing
time, especially in short yardage and goal line situations. Despite the presence of RB Darren
Sproles, I can see Ingram pushing 800 rushing yards with 6+ scores. And that makes him a solid
darkhorse fantasy sleeper on a high-powered offensive scoring team.
The Long-Shot
LeVeon Bell ® (Pittsburgh) - Bell is a talented rookie, one whom finds himself on a team
without a lead back. RB Rashard Mendenhall is gone, and both RB Jonathan Dywer and RB
Isaac Redman have been very inconsistent in their play. That leaves the door open for Bell to
grab the starting job, provided he earns it this summer. If he does, he could make a great
longshot fantasy sleeper in the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts.
Chris Ivory (New York Jets) - RB Shonn Greene is gone. RB Mike Goodson was signed, but
he's in all sorts of legal trouble, and doesn't seem to have the talent that Ivory has, a player the
Jets acquired via trade from the Saints this off-season. The only catch here seems to be the
injury prone history that Ivory had with the Saints. If he can stay healthy, he should easily win
the starting job and made a decent impact for fantasy owners taking him in the middle rounds of
their draft as a longshot fantasy sleeper.
Jonathan Franklin ® (Green Bay) - Franklin was drafted just a few rounds after the Packers
grabbed RB Eddie Lacy in the draft back in April. Most believe Lacy wins the job, and we
agree. That said, there is a chance that Franklin steals it from him this summer. And if Lacy
wins the job, but stumbles out of the gate, Franklin will get his chance to shine. And that is all it
takes to be a longshot fantasy sleeper in 2013... opportunity.
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The Deep-Sleeper
LaMichael James (San Francisco) - James didn't get much of a chance to play his rookie year in
2012. That will change in 2013, but RB Frank Gore remains the solid starter. RB Kendall
Hunter is coming off a serious torn Achilles injury, but should be ready to play week #1. Still,
the 49ers will get James more involved (as a pass-catcher at the very least), and if Gore goes
down and Hunter struggles to get his speed back, James could vault to a starting role sooner than
one might think. That makes him a very interesting deep sleeper at the RB position.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The Obvious
Randall Cobb (Green Bay) - Last summer, Cobb was one of my lonshot sleepers and he
overperformed. This summer, he's one of the obvious sleepers, only because he'll be competing
for targets from a corps group of WR Jordy Nelson, WR James Jones, and TE Jermichael Finley.
No doubting that Cobb will perform well when he gets his chances, but the real question is how
much they will feature him.
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) - Bowe was pretty much worthless the last half of last year, and
was thought to be gone. Then HC Andy Reid was hired and the Chiefs re-signed Bowe. They
also acquired QB Alex Smith, a game manager that can make the big plays now and then. And
Bowe will be the recipient of most of those big plays. His current ADP is middle of the 4th
round, so grabbing him as your #2 fantasy WR is a wise move to make, as the situation dictates
he will rebound provided he stays healthy.
Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) - Did you know that Williams has scored at least 9 times in two of
the past three seasons? He may not be the primary target in Tampa, but he plays well as the #2
WR, seeing less corner coverage. And he makes big catches for scores! Oh, and did I mention
his ADP is the 8th round? That is crazy! You can wait until the 8th or 9th round like I did in the
FF Index Magazine Mock Draft to take Williams as your #4 fantasy WR! That is great obvious
sleeper value!
DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia) - It's been a slow decline for Jackson statistically since 2009, as
he finished with just two scores in 2012. That should change in 2013, as new HC Chip Kelly
wants to showcase Jackson's talents, meaning to get him the football more. Jackson is more than
ready to show he's worth the big money they gave him last off-season, as he knows if he doesn't
produce in 2013, they can ditch him without consequence next off-season.
The Darkhorse
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) - Hilton caught just 50 passes as a rookie, but he made several big
plays and scored seven times. WR Donnie Avery is gone, but the team did sign WR Darrius
Heyward-Bey as the new starter opposite WR Reggie Wayne. But that doesn't mean Hilton's role
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won't grow, as he continues to develop. Bottom Line: Wayne is getting older, so don't be
surprised if Hilton takes over as the big playmaker for this high-powered passing offense. That
makes him one great darkhorse fantasy sleeper!
Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh) - Sanders is in prime position to increase his production
replacing departe WR Mike Wallace opposite WR Antonio Brown as a starter in 2013. The
Steelers re-signed him after the Patriots signed him to an offer sheet. He has every reason to be
motivated, as he'll be an unrestricted free-agent come 2014. He's quick, has solid hands, and can
make plays. He may drop the occasional pass, but his upside is just too good to ignore, making
him a solid darkhorse fantasy sleeper in 2013.
Chris Givens (St. Louis) - As a rookie, Givens caught just 42 passes and scroed three times, but
he is seemingly the most veteran receiver to return after the departure of WR Danny Amendola
and WR Brandon Gibson via free agency. He was mostly a one-trick pony with fly pattern
scores, but the Rams are training him to be more diverse in 2013 as one of the lead starting
receivers. QB Sam Bradford is talented enough to make Givens into a solid #3 fantasy provided
both stay healthy and Givens progresses well with his development.
Vincent Brown (San Diego) - Brown broke onto the scene with a big game and score against the
Raiders in the middle of the 2011 season. Unfdortunately, a broken ankle sidelined him for all of
2012, but he's healthy again and is sharing first team reps in OTAs with WR Malcome Floyd
opposite WR Danario Alexander. There is no question when healthy, Browns can produce when
called upon. The question is whether he can stay healthy and whether the Chargers give him a
real chance to start and produce. I think he gets that chance and will get the job done.
The Long-Shot
Jacoby Jones (Baltimore) - Jones is the primed to start opposite WR Torrey Smith with WR
Anquan Boldin now a 49ers. He had his chances in Houston and struggled, but did make some
big plays down the stretch as a Ravens in the playoffs last year. If he can become more
consistent in his play and more more big plays, he could become a solid longshot sleeper for
fantasy owners in need later this summer.
Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati) - While catching just 16 passes his rookie season, Sanu managed
to score four times. Unfortunately, a foot injury sidelined him late last year, stunting his
development a bit. Thus far, he's on track for a full recovery and should start opposite WR A.J.
Green for a young and upcoming offensive team. He has solid chemistry with QB Andy Dalton,
something that might actually make him a bit better than a longshot fantasy sleeper, but he fits in
rather nicely right now in this group.
Robert Woods ® (Buffalo) - As John Holler says... "Woods has excellent first-step burst off the
line…Has excellent, natural athleticism…Very strong in his cuts and can create
separation…Dangerous in the red zone and always fights for the ball…Consistently highpoints
the ball…Has good toughness and gains every yard he can on most receptions…Has a solid
second gear and can set up defensive backs." Most importnatly of all, WR David Nelson and WR
Donald Jones are gone, giving Woods the immediate chance to step into a starting job opposite
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WR Stevie Johnson. The only worry here is whether QB Kevin Kolb or QB E.J. Manuel start and
play consistently well enough to get Woods the ball so he can make enough plays to be a
longshot fantasy sleeper who actually produces.
Ryan Broyles (Detroit) - Broyles is a second-year receiver rehabbing from a torn ACL. He
made some noise as the #2 WR before getting hurt and plays for a team with a high powered
passing game. If he can return to health fairly fast, he could regain the #2 starting WR job by
mid-season, if not sooner. His talent certainly makes him a decent sleeper and his longshot
status comes strictly from his torn ACL rehab. At this time, WR Nate Burleson is the #2 WR,
but the Lions have been looking for a better option at the position for a few seasons now...
The Deep-Sleeper
A.J. Jenkins (San Francisco) - As a rookie last year, Jenkisn made no impact at all. He was a
big disappointment, but this year could be different. WR Michael Crabtree (torn Achilles) will
miss most, if not all, of the 2013 season, giving Jenkins a chance to seize the moment and earn
the starting job opposite WR Anquan Boldin. The 49ers spent a high draft pick on him, so they
are rooting for his success. Only time will tell if he steps up his play and wins the job, but he
certainly makes for an interesting deep sleeper at the WR position.
TIGHT ENDS
The Obvious
Jared Cook (St. Louis) - Cook has so much talent, yet the Titans wasted most of it. No more.
Cook signed with the Rams this offseason, a team that lost it's top two wideouts. HC Jeff Fisher
promises to use Cook as an integral part of the passing game. As a result, Cook is an obvious
solid fantasy sleeper for 2013. Just be aware that QB Sam Bradford will be making an
adjustment towards targeting a TE often if this is truly the case. That is why Cook is no sure bet
to succeed this season.
Fred Davis (Washington) - Davis is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, an injury that occurred
just as he was starting to develop some chemistry with RGIII. He's expected to be healthy by
week #1, but questions persist about his ability to play well at a high level so soon. Factor in
RGIII's own serious knee injury and you have an obvious sleeper, but one that can be had in the
latter parts of a fantasy draft. Personally, I draft him as my #3 TE, one with great potential, but
also one that can be cut at any time should the stars not align right for a productive season.
Brandon Myers (New York Giants) - Myers broke out in a big way as a Raider last year, only to
leave via free agency to sign as the Giants new pass-catching TE. That's good and bad. With TE
Martellus Bennett in Chicago, Myers is expected to start and see a fair amount of targets, but he
must develop chemistry quickly with QB Eli Manning, much the way Bennett did last summer.
That is not a given, but considering the Giants' situation at wideout, Manning is likey to spend
plenty of time throwing to Myers this summer.
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Martellus Bennett (Chicago) - Speaking of Bennett, he's now the starter at TE for the Bears,
making him an interesting sleeper pick. That said, the Bears havn't made good use of their TE in
the passing game for several seasons now since before TE Greg Olsen was traded. It stands to
reason that Bennett will make an impact though, due to the lack of depth at the receiving position
for the Bears.
The Darkhorse
Dustin Keller (Miami) - Keller ditched the Jets for a one-year prove it deal from the Dolphins
this off-season. He joins WR Mike Wallace and WR Brandon Gibson as newbies in the Dolphins
receiving corps. He is very motivated to earn a long-term deal with the team, but must develop
chemistry as well as a significant role in Miami's offense this summer if he's to make a big
impact. That's what makes him an interesting darkhorse fantasy sleeper.
Jake Ballard (New England) - TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm/back surgery) may or may not be
ready to play come week #1 and TE Aaron Hernandez (arrested for murder) was released,
leaving a now healthy Ballard as the expected starter. Now, that is not to say he's got the talent
of Hernandez to play wideout, but he proved he can make plays when he was healthy as a Giant
in 2011 playing the pass-catching TE role. That fact clearly makes him a darkhorse fantasy
sleeper, since QB Tom Brady needs all the talented and healthy targets he can get!
Zach Miller (Seattle) - After seasons of disappointing results since he left Oakland, Miller
finally found his groove late last year, scoring well in the playoffs. But 2013 is a new season
and the Seahawks acquired WR Percy Harvin. With WR Sidney Rice and WR Golden Tate still
on board, are there enough footballs to go around to make Miller fantasy worthy? Good
question. That is why he's at best a darkhorse fantasy sleeper!
Jordan Cameron (Cleveland) - Adios TE Ben Watson. The Browns are looking to the future,
making Cameron their new starting TE. That sounds promising, but Cameron has been injury
prone in his initial seasons in the league. In fact, he nursed groin pulls this offseason. And then
there's QB Brandon Weeden, the player whom wil be targeting Cameron. He's not exactly QB
Peytron Manning. That said, the team wants Cameron to succeed, so when healthy, he'll get his
chances.
The Long-Shot
Delanie Walker (Tennessee) - Exit TE Jared Cook. Enter TE Delanie Walker. Walker is a
sleeper for one big reason, he's expected to start on a team that promises to target him early and
often. That said, they failed to do that with Cook last year. Yes, it's a new day and new
playbook, so we shall see if Walker can produce coming out of the shadows of TE Vernon Davis
in San Francisco.
Coby Fleener (Indianapolis) – Fleener disappointed last season despite having played with QB
Andrew Luck in collage. However, word is that the Colts know they used Fleener too much as a
blocker and promise to get him more targets in 2013. But just how much more with TE Dwayne
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Allen also on the roster? That's the issue here. It's all talk until we see it on the field, keeping
Fleener just an interesting longshot fantasy sleeper at best.
Luke Stoker (Tampa Bay) - Exit TE Dallas Clark. That meansa that primary blocking tight end
Stoker gets another chance to ber a psas-catch as well. QB Josh Freeman likes to target his TE,
and that's the only real reason why Stoker is listed here. That and the fact that this category is
rather limited in 2013. If you draft Stocker, you best be in a 16+ team TE-required league and
take him at the very end of it.
The Deep-Sleeper
David Ausberry (Oakland) - TE Brandon Myers didn't re-sign, so Ausberry gets first crack to
fill the void. Too bad QB Carson Palmer is also gone, meaning Ausberry will have to click
quickly with QB Matt Flynn if he's to make any kind of impact at the position in the passing
game. But, hey! It's not like Myers was a household name this time last summer!
~ end ~
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2013 Creeper Preview
2013 Mastermind Creepers
(by Michael Nazarek)
Were you one of those fantasy owners who drafted Eli Manning, Darren McFadden, Dwayne
Bowe, or Antonio Gates last year? Unfortunately, these players were some of the many
disappointments due to injuries or other unfortunate circumstances. Just because they didn’t
perform last year, doesn’t mean they will fail again in 2013, but I want to make sure to point out
some of the warning signs which may cause certain players to produce poor fantasy numbers this
year. I remind everyone that the players on the forthcoming list may produce good fantasy
numbers this coming season, but I recommend you think twice before drafting them for your
team this year. Let the buyer beware!
QUARTERBACKS
Phillip Rivers (San Diego) - Don't get me wrong here, Rivers is still a talented QB, but
something is definitely off with his production since the team chose not to re-sign WR Vincent
Jackson. TE Antonio Gates is getting old before our eyes and with the exception of a healthy
WR Vincent Brown and rookie WR Keenan Allen, the Chargers haven't really improved their
recieving corps. Let's just say Rivers will have his moments, but the says of him dominating
fantasy stats are likely over. That is why I don't care for him and I don't see him as anything
more than a decent fantay backup. He is an obvious creeper from a starting standpoint at QB,
and he topped 20 fantasy points in a game last year only four times.
Matt Schaub (Houston) – Schaub is like Rivers in the fact that he also only topped 20 fantasy
points just four times in 2012, but he plays in control and is a winner. Unfortunately, the Texans
run more than they pass, so Schaub will often pile up 150 passing yards and one score by
halftime only to end the game with 180 passing yards and that one score because RB Arian
Foster has scored twice in the second half. I don't see the formula changing much in 2013,
keeping Schaub a creeper once again this summer.
Joe Flacco (Baltimore) – Flacco is much like Schaub, but has a bit more highs and lows. Last
season, he ranked 14th in most performance scoring leagues that don't favor the QB. He'll
produce a 30-point game, only to follow it up with 8- and 12-point games. And without WR
Anquan Boldin to target, his abilty to create the big play takes a major hit. At best, he's a decent
fantasy backup,m and nowhere near a fantasy starter in 2013. Something tells me RB Ray Rice
will get the majority of the scores in the red zone this coming season for the team.
The Deep-Creeper
Tim Tebow (New England) – You knew this was coming right? The easy call would have been
QB Mark Sanchez in New York, but that is the obvious choice. Tebow signed to battle for the
#3 QB position in New England. Despite that obvious fact, some fantasy football players still
cried to me saying he was an actual upgrade over a fading QB Tom Brady! Are they crazy? You
bet they are! I got one word for anyone thinking about drafting Tebow this summer. AVOID.
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RUNNING BACKS
Darren McFadden (Oakland) - OVERRATED. Last summer, I was all over Run-DMC as a
fantasy sleeper pick. I learned my lesson quick. After another struggling performance along
with four more missed games, I'm officially done with Mr. DMC. Yes, the Raiders have new
coaches and they have changed their blocking scheme again and plan to feature McFadden
heavily. We've all heard this before. Yes, he'll have a few moments, but considering his true
talent, he should be a top 10 RB, but he averaged only 13 points in PPR leagues last year, good
only for the #22 position among RBs. That simply isn't good enough and we ALWAYS misses
at least 3-4 games per season! All I have to say here is if he slides to you in your draft and you
are in position to take him as your #2 RB, think long and hard about what I have said. And don't
be shocked when you have to bench him due to injury fro several games once again in 2013.
Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) - Stewart was supposed to be the new starter for the Panthers early
last season, then he saw less touches than RB DeAngelo Williams and got injured. HC Ron
Rivera survived (barely) the offseason and now he's preaching that Stewart will start. Well...
he's still not 100% healthy, Williams took a paycut to stick around and RB Mike Tolbert is still
there, waiting to steal goal touches. Bottom Line: There are too many risks here to like Stewart,
even as your #3 fantasy RB. The entire situation creeps me out! After owning Stewart on a few
teams last year, I'll take a pass on him entirely in 2013.
Fred Jackson (Buffalo) - I remember just a few short years ago, Jackson was a solid sleeper.
But times have changed. RB C.J. Spiller has taken over making the big plays, while Jackson has
suffered various injuries. As a result, Spiller is the new starter and workhorse back, while the
Bills plan to use Jackson to spell Spiller to keep him fresh. This is NOT a timeshare situation.
Jackson has become the handcuff for Spiller fantasy owners, meaning Jackson's fantasy value is
no longer one of a solid (or even decent) fantasy starter, but one of a depth player as well as
insurance. Word of warning, don't over-estimate his value. You'll regret it.
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) - It appeared that Thomas was set up to start and see a significant
role in the Saints offense last year when RB Darren Sproles suffered a hand injury. But that
didn't pan out. Instead, he languished for long periods of time on the sidelines. Well, RB Chris
Ivory has been traded to the New York Jets, but RB Mark Ingram is finally healthy, ready to take
more playing time away from Thomas. That said, Thomas did see first unit reps on OTAs and
mincamps this offseason. Of course, Sproles remains the big threat out of the backfield, while
playing time between Thomas and Ingram is really a mystery. Bottom Line: Ingram is too
talented and young to sit the sidelines while Thomas plays. Look for more of a RBBC between
the two, while Ingram gets most of the goal touches. That makes Thomas a creeper in my book.
The Deep-Creeper
Ryan Williams (Arizona) - Williams has suffered season-ending injuries the past two years that
have cut his seasons short. Even though RB Beanie Wells is gone, don't expect Williams to start
or even make a big impact in the team's running game in 2013. Why? RB Rashard Mendenhall
was signed and installed as the clear starting RB. In addition, Williams admitted that he waqs
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scared all last year to carry the football. Williams was coming off a torn patella tendon. "I was
trying to protect my leg instead of trying to protect the football," he said. "It's a scary sight being
a running back and being scared to run the ball. That's something that no running back should
feel." Williams averaged a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry before his season-ending shoulder injury
in Week #5. The Cardinals coaches firmly back Mendenhall, while Williams will have to prove
he deserves any opportunities he gets on the field of play this summer.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Miles Austin (Dallas) - OVERRATED. Some fantasy football players still think Austin is the
team's #1 WR. Think again. The emergence of WR Dez Bryant and the reliability of TE Jason
Witten make Austin no better than the #3 option in the passing game. As a result of this
development along with various hamstring injuries, Austin managed just barely four catches for
58 yards receiving over the past two seasons. Yes, he'll still make the occasional big play, but
more often than not, austin disappoints for fantasy owners. There's no reason to believe this
trend won't continue, making him an overrated fantasy creeper in most fantasy leagues this
summer.
Denarius Moore (Oakland) - There is really no doubting the talent of Moore, but the
environment he finds himself in is the real problem here. The fact that QB Carson Palmer is
now in Arizona is the real issue. During the team's recent minicamp, the media reported that the
QB play by the Raiders was the poorest in many years. QB Matt Flynn has a lot to live up to
based upon a few games playing in Green Bay. If he doesn't step it up and show everyone he's
ready, the other QBs in Oakland appear nowhere ready to play in live action. As a result, Moore
is likely to languish away, lucky to see the type of production WR Larry Fitzgerald experienced
in Arizona last season. And that is certainly not a good thing!
Malcom Floyd (San Diego) - 2010: 700+ yards and six scores. 2011: 800+ yards and five
scores. 2012: 800+ yards and five scores. Sound familar? No matter whether Floyd is seen as a
starter, or not, all he generates is about 800 receiving yards and 5-6 scores. He's never topped
856 receiving yards on his career. Worst of all, he's only played in all 16 games in a season
ONCE during his career. He's an injury prone slick receiver whom produces a big game here
and there, but has never been a consistent #1 WR even when the team needed him to be one last
year after WR Vincent Jackson left and WR Vincent Brown got hurt. Instead, WR Danario
Alexander became the real threat. Bottom Line: Don't fall for this perennial fantasy tease. He
comes with too many risks to trust as anything other than a #5 fantasy WR.
Stephen Hill (New York Jets) - Hill had a big game to begin his rookie season with two scores,
then pretty much disappeared in 2012, scoring just once while being limited to 11 games due to
various injuries. That said, the Jets chose not to upgrade their WR corps due to salary cap issues.
WR Santonio Holmes (foot) is still not healthy, meaning Hill will be looked upon as a serious
contributor to keep the passing game going in the immediate future. Unfortunately, Hill is have
issues with his surgically-repaired knee. And when he's practiced, he's suffered through a lot of
drops on the field of play. This is not a formula for fantasy success. He's raw, hurting, and
unpredictable. This is THE formula for a fantasy creeper if I ever saw one!
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Santana Moss (Washington) - Moss has always been a fairly reliable deep threat. That is, when
he's healthy and seeing a lot of targets. That was the case when WR Pierre Garcon couldn't play
last season due to a toe injury. However, once Garcon was healthy enough to play, Moss
became pretty much an afterthought. It also doesn't help that Moss is now 34 years old. If you
think Moss will come anywhere close to the eight touchdowns he scored last year with a healthy
Garcon on the field, you are crazy. RGIII may or may not be ready to play come week #1, but
it's probably a foregone conclusion that this is Moss' final year as a Redskin, that is, provded he
makes the final cut. And don't be surprised if he doesn't!
The Deep-Creeper
Brandon Gibson (Miami) - Gibson was inconsistent as the #2 starting WR for the Rams, and he
was not re-signed, but ended up taking a deal with the Miami Dolphins this offseason. Thus far,
he disappointed during OTAs and minicamps, as he's been forced to learn the slot receiving
position for the team. He dropped several passes and is having trouble with the routes. WR
Armon Binns outplayed him to date. The Dolphins gave Gibson a fairly big contract, so it's
unlikely he'll be cut, but this is certainly not looking good for Gibson to make much of an impact
in 2013, as WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline and TE Dustin Keller figure to get most of the
targets. I say take a pass on Gibson this summer, as there are plenty of better options to be had
in the latter rounds of a fantasy draft at WR.
TIGHT ENDS
Antonio Gates (San Diego) - OVERRATED. Gosh, I hate to admit this, but despite being one
of my favorite TEs in recent memories, Gates just doesn't seem to have it in terms of being a
consistent producer any more. Despite recent reports of Gates looking "fit and quick", we heard
this type of thing last summer too. In 2012, Gates caught more than three short passes in a game
just five times. More often than not, Gates disappeared in the offense without WR Vincent
Jackson instead of becoming a focal point. He's declined in recieving yards in each of the past
three years, a signal he's getting long-in-the-tooth. At 33 years old, this could be his final season
as a starting TE for the Chargers, so draft him with caution.
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh) - When healthy, Miller can be a dominant TE, but that is the issue
here. He suffered a torn ACL later last season, an injury that he's nowhere near recovered from.
Miller is not A.P. He's a tough, but slow, receiver, a guy who needs his health in order to be
productive. The Steelers admit it's unlikely that he begins the season healthy, which could lead
to a stint on the in-season PUP list, causing him to miss the first six games of the year. That
would be devastating to any fantasy team that drafts him this summer. Unless we get radically
positive news regarding his injury, it's just best to stay away from him in your draft.
Brent Celek (Philadelphia) - Despite catching 57 passes in 2012, Celek scored just ONCE. In
PPR leagues, he topped 10.5 fantasy points just TWICE. He missed one game due to injury and
scored under 10 points 12 times. His role in the new HC Chip Kelly system is very much in
doubt. QB Mike Vick likes Celek, but he's no lock to start and doesn't call the plays. Bottom
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Line: The days of Celek scoring 8 times in a season (2009) are likely over, making him more
creeper than sleeper. Just not getting a good vibe here, as the word AVOID comes flooding to
the forefront.
Scott Chandler (Buffalo) - Chandler scored four times in his first four games in 2012, but ended
the season with just two more scores. The bad news here is that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is no more.
Veteran QB Kevin Kolb will battle rookie QB E.J. Manuel to start, making Chandler's role in the
offense a question mark. And badder news is the fact that Chandler tore his ACL last December.
The latest update on his condition has him ready to go by week #1, but that is no lock to happen.
Only time will tell, but a player coming off a torn ACL with a new starting QB has more
questions than answers if you draft him this summer.
The Deep-Creeper
Jacob Tamme (Denver) - Tamme is a talent, but he didn't catch the eye of QB Peyton Manning
in 2012 the way he did when they both were Colts. He caught 55 passes last season, but only for
555 yards and just two scores. Guess what? The addition of WR Wes Welker to the receiving
corps makes it more likely that Tamme's numbers will go down even farther. The feel-good
story from 2010 in Indianapolis is just a pipe dream in Denver. It's simply best to avoid this
deep creeper!
~ end ~
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2013 Rookie Preview
The Rookie Class of 2013
as of 7/26/2013
(by John Holler)
When it comes to ranking rookies, the biggest issues are whether a fantasy owner is
looking for just this year or long term. For example, at tight end, Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce
may well make the most immediate impact, but given that Dallas, Atlanta, Washington and
Philadelphia all drafted tight ends to eventually replace tight ends that have been critical parts of
their respective offenses. In the end, the replacement tight ends may not have as much short-term
value, but their long-term value could be off the charts.
These are our final rankings of the Class of 2013. With the changes that have been made
to rosters since the draft, these are where we place them for this season with keeper rankings
listed at the end of their profile.
QUARTERBACKS
1. Geno Smith, New York Jets – David Garrard is already out of the way, so all that leaves
between Smith and a starting job is Mark Sanchez – an overpaid, underachieving QB who is at a
crossroads. (KEEPER RANKING: 1).
2. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo – Kevin Kolb isn’t a long-term answer. The Bills spoke volumes when
they stunned the NFL and took him with the 16th pick when most projected Manuel as still being
available when Buffalo was set to pick early in the second round. The Bills already jettisoned
Tarvaris Jackson after giving him $500,000 in March. Kolb, you’re next. (KEEPER
RANKING: 3).
3. Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay – A tall quarterback with upside, Glennon remains well behind
starter Josh Freeman. But, Greg Schiano isn’t the type of coach who accepts mediocrity. As
such, Glennon may get the call sooner than later. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
4. Matt Barkley, Philadelphia – A USC-trained QB comes from a pro-style college offense to a
college-style pro offense with the Eagles. When the dust settles, he could be the man, but, as
things stand right now, he’s behind both Michael Vick and Nick Foles. (KEEPER RANKING:
2).
5. Landry Jones, Pittsburgh – A player who fits in the Steelers system and isn’t an AARP
member. Given the beatings Big Ben takes, it may be sooner than later that Steelers fans
discover whether or not Jones can get the job done. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
6. Tyler Wilson, Oakland – Given how quickly the Raiders go through quarterbacks, nothing is
guaranteed. Matt Flynn will be given every opportunity to crash and burn. Terrelle Pryor’s
inability to learn the offense will eventually reduce him to be little more than a Wildcat changeof-pace option. Wilson won’t be there any time soon, but he can do a lot to help his stock.
(KEEPER RANKING: 7).
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2013 Rookie Preview
7. Ryan Nassib, New York Giants – Eli is an ironman so it likely won’t be any time soon. But,
he will immediately become trade bait for a team in need and, if Manning gets hurt, Nassib will
likely jump past David Carr in the pecking order. (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
OTHERS TO WATCH: B.J. Daniels (San Francisco), Brad Sorenson (San Diego), Sean
Renfree (Atlanta), Zac Dysert (Denver),
RUNNING BACKS
1. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay – The Packers running game has been a mess for years. They took a
chance on passing on Lacy in the first round, but, when he was still there in the second round,
they jumped. He has the ability to be a star for years in the Green Bay offense so sorely lacking
in RB talent. His big red flag is injuries, but that’s a risk with all players. (KEEPER
RANKING: 2).
2. Montee Ball, Denver – When the Broncos got rid of Willis McGahee, it spoke volumes to
what they think Ball can bring to the table this year. He has all the makings of the kind of guy
John Fox has historically liked in a running back and could be the centerpiece of the offense that
doesn’t include Peyton Manning. (KEEPER RANKING: 1).
3. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh – He’s in a crowded backfield on a team that shows loyalty to
veterans. However, he is a prototype back for the system the Steelers run, which will get him in
the lineup. Once he does, it will only go up from there. (KEEPER RANKING: 3).
4. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati – Unless BGE puts on his big boy pants, he’s going to start
losing touches in a hurry. (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
5. Zac Stacy, St. Louis – He is the one player who gets a significant bump from us because of
opportunity. Steven Jackson has dominated the RB scene in St. Louis for a decade and the void
is enormous. Stacy’s speed is going to get noticed. He’s our sleeper pick of this group.
6. Latavius Murray, Oakland – He is likely going to be a guy most fans don’t know too much
about until they see his preseason stat lines. Given Run DMC’s penchant for injury, he could
find his way into a lineup quicker than most. (KEEPER RANKING: 10).
7. Knile Davis, Kansas City – Davis has been injured almost his entire college career, but he is
so explosive he reminds many of new teammate Jamaal Charles. If JC gets dinged, he becomes
the next man up. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
8. Chris Thompson, Washington – It’s Mike Shanahan, people. That’s why we had Alfred
Morris where we did last year. Likely? No. Possible. Damn skippy. (KEEPER RANKING: 15).
9. Mike Gillislie, Miami – The Dolphins are looking to be more wide open in their offense, but,
if they can have a skilled everyman in the backfield who can run, catch passes and block, he
could find his way through the depth chart in a hurry. (KEEPER RANKING: 7).
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2013 Rookie Preview
10. Christine Michael, Seattle – He is a hard-nosed runner, but sitting behind Marshawn Lynch
and Robert Turbin isn’t conducive to early success. (KEEPER RANKING: 11).
11. Andre Ellington, Arizona – You can’t teach speed and the new coaching staff in Arizona
may get enamored quickly with him. They didn’t cause the mess the Cardinals running game has
become. They did draft Ellington. (KEEPER RANKING: 14).
12. Johnathan Franklin, Green Bay – You can’t measure heart. Green Bay has a history of
getting the most out of players disrespected on draft day – Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Donald
Driver, Antonio Freeman, Jordy Nelson, etc. Franklin is as hard-nosed a one-cut runner as there
is. He may never be a featured back, but he will make a difference. (KEEPER RANKING: 12).
13. Marcus Lattimore, San Francisco – Injuries will keep him likely out the entire season. He
has no value to one-year fantasy owners, but, if you can carry guys over, he’s a must grab on
potential greatness. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
14. Joseph Randle, Dallas – The Cowboys running game has struggled for years with injuries –
from Marion Barber to Felix Jones to DeMarco Murray. Randle needs to catch a break, but he is
a third-down blocking/receiving back who could make big strides in a hurry if Murray is again
sidelined. (KEEPER RANKING: 8).
15. Kerwynn Williams, Indianapolis – Vick Ballard isn’t a fluid receiver, Delone Carter is a
power back one-trick pony and Donald Brown is likely out the door. With his skill set, he could
make headway into forcing his way on the field. (KEEPER RANKING: 13).
OTHERS TO WATCH: Kenjon Barner (Carolina), Rex Burkhead (Cincinnati), Spencer
Ware (Seattle), Stepfan Taylor (Arizona), Michael Cox (New York Giants), Jawan Jamison
(Washington), Mike James (Tampa Bay).
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Tavon Austin, St. Louis – The next Percy Harvin is the mantra being used. If he comes close
to Harvin’s impact on the NFL game, he will be a star for the next decade. (KEEPER
RANKING: 1).
2. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston – He was drafted to be the “other guy” next to Andre Johnson.
He will enter as the best No. 2 option the Texans have had in years and, considering Andre
3000’s age, he could be the No. 1 guy as early as 2014 or 2015. (KEEPER RANKING: 3).
3. Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota – He is raw, but so immensely talented that Minnesota
traded back into the first round for a third pick to take the raw, but game-changing Tennessee
receiver. He’s rated this high for a reason – as much his long-term value as his short-term.
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2013 Rookie Preview
4. Justin Hunter, Tennessee – The Titans have tripled down in the draft to bolster the receiver
corps with Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and now Hunter. In an ideal world, all three co-exist,
but, once Britt implodes (again), Hunter will move into his role as a No. 1 threat. (KEEPER
RANKING: 5).
5. Robert Woods, Buffalo – Stevie Johnson is the man in Buffalo, but Woods may be the most
NFL-ready receiver in the league this year. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
6. Keenan Allen, San Diego – Malcom Floyd is ideally a No. 3 receiver, not a No. 2. Danario
Alexander was a street free agent in October. Things change quickly in San Diego. (KEEPER
RANKING: 7).
7. Aaron Dobson, New England – The Patriots are at a crossroads of their passing game
without Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez. There isn’t a job anywhere safe and
those who stand out will get on the field. Dobson has that ability with his size and long arms to
carve out one of those spots. (KEEPER RANKING: 8).
8. Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh – Speed kills and Wheaton fits exactly into the type of role
Mike Wallace had early in his Steelers career. Guys like this often end up getting paid…but
other teams (Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, Wallace, etc.). (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
9. Josh Boyce, New England – See No. 7, except visualize a replacement for Lloyd. (KEEPER
RANKING: 9).
10. Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo – Eventually will be the anticipated sidekick for Woods, but is
at best a No. 3 guy now – if not further down the early depth chart. (KEEPER RANKING: 15).
11. Quinton Patton, San Francisco – With Michael Crabtree hurt and Randy Moss gone, there
is plenty of room for young players to make an impact. Who was Colin Kaepernick a year ago at
this time? (KEEPER RANKING: 14).
12. Denard Robinson, Jacksonville – A converted college QB, he will be the Tim Tebow the
Jags ownership envisioned. What that gets him will play out over the next couple of years.
13. Kenny Stills, New Orleans – Any times the Saints coaching staff identifies something in a
receiver they like, there’s something to be said for that and makes him a player worth monitoring
in the preseason. (KEEPER RANKING: 11).
14. Steadman Bailey, St. Louis – He may end up being the running buddy for Tavon Austin and
would be rated higher if we had any faith that Sam Bradford could be anything more than a
caretaker type of QB. (KEEPER RANKING: 12).
15. Terrance Williams, Dallas – With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree already
signed and in the fold, using a third round pick here speaks to how much the Cowboys think of
him. (KEEPER RANKING: 10).
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2013 Rookie Preview
OTHERS TO WATCH: Ace Sanders (Jacksonville), Chris Harper (Seattle), Tavarres
King (Denver), Ryan Swope (Arizona), Cobi Hamilton (Cincinnati), Alan Bonner (Houston),
Corey Fuller (Detroit), Justin Brown (Pittsburgh).
TIGHT ENDS
1. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati – It seemed a strange choice when the Bengals took him with
Jermaine Gresham under contract. Obviously, they see him as a big-play receiver who will be a
big part of their offense, simply because they had bigger needs as the favorite in the AFC North.
2. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia – Brent Celek isn’t getting any younger and Chip Kelly has big
plans for Ertz. He inherited Celek. (KEEPER RANKING: 2).
3. Travis Kelce, Kansas City – Tony Moeaki may have been a palate-cleansing replacement for
Tony Gonzalez, but The Walrus (Andy Reid) wants more. Koo-koo-ka-joob. (KEEPER
RANKING: 4).
4. Gavin Esobar, Dallas – Jason Witten has been a stud for a long time. A long, long time.
Escobar may have been taken higher than a lot of scouts had, but Dallas has a vision for the
future post-Witten and clearly he would appear to be at the front of the line. (KEEPER
RANKING: 6).
5. Jordan Reed, Washington – Chris Cooley is gone and Fred Davis is no guarantee. Shanahan
gets to mold a guy in his own image. (KEEPER RANKING: 7).
6. Dion Sims, Miami – Dustin Keller got the headlines. Sims will get the gravy. (KEEPER
RANKING: 3).
7. Levin Toilolo, Atlanta – He will carry Tony Gonzalez’s pads after every practice in 2013. In
2014? That’s another story. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
8. Luke Willson, Seattle – He’s not the Wilson with the funky nose right? Pete Carroll has his
reasons. (KEEPER RANKING: 9).
9. Vance McDonald, San Francisco – The loss of Delanie Walker may not seem big, but it is.
OTHERS TO WATCH: D.C. Jefferson (Arizona), Nick Kasa (Oakland), Ryan Griffin
(Houston), Michael Williams (Detroit), Chris Gragg (Buffalo), Mychal Rivera (Oakland).
KICKERS
1. Caleb Sturgis, Detroit – He has to beat out Dan Carpenter, which won’t be a gimme. He may
end up in the NFL, but not necessarily with the Dolphins. (KEEPER RANKING: 1A).
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2013 Rookie Preview
2. Dustin Hopkins, Buffalo – If Buffalo had better scoring prospects, he would be rated No. 1A.
But, Rian Lindell won’t give up his job without a fight. A fifth-round pick used on a kicker is
usually a good sign, but who wants Buffalo’s kicker in 2013? It doesn’t matter if it’s Lindell of
Dustin Hoffman. (KEEPER RANKING: 1B).
RE-DRAFTER ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR 2013
1. Tavon Austin
2. Eddie Lacy
3. Montee Ball
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Geno Smith
6. Cordarrelle Patterson
7. E.J. Manuel
8. Justin Hunter
9. Le’Veon Bell
10. Robert Woods
11. Giovani Bernard
12. Zac Stacy
13. Tyler Eifert
14. Keenan Allen
15. Aaron Dobson
16. Markus Wheaton
17. Latavius Murray
18. Zach Ertrz
19. Knile Davis
20. Josh Boyce
21. Mike Glennon
22. Chris Thompson
23. Travis Kelce
24. Marquise Goodwin
25. Mike Gillislie
26. Matt Barkley
27. Christine Michael
28. Andre Ellington
29. Johnathan Franklin
30. Denard Robison
31. Kenny Stills
32. Steadman Bailey
33. Landry Jones
34. Terrance Williams
35. Ace Sanders
36. Gavin Escobar
37. Marcus Lattimore
38. Joseph Randle
39. Kerwynn Williams
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2013 Rookie Preview
40. Jordan Reed
41. Dion Sims
42. Caleb Sturgis
43. Chris Harper
44. Kenjon Barner
45. Rex Burkhead
46. Dustin Hopkins
47. Levin Toilolo
48. Tavarres King
49. Tyler Wilson
50. Ryan Nassib
DYNASTY/KEEPER RANKINGS
1. Tavon Austin
2. Montee Ball
3. Eddie Lacy
4. Geno Smith
5. Cordarrelle Patterson
6. Le’Veon Bell
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. Robert Woods
9. Justin Hunter
10. Markus Wheaton
11. Marcus Lattimore
12. Matt Barkley
13. E.J. Manuel
14. Landry Jones
15. Knile Davis
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Keenan Allen
18. Aaron Dobson
19. Tyler Eifert
20. Mike Gillislie
21. Mike Glennon
22. Joseph Randle
23. Zach Ertz
24. Dion Sims
25. Josh Boyce
26. Travis Kelce
27. Zac Stacy
28. Terrance Williams
29. Levin Toilolo
30. Gavin Escobar
31. Latavius Murrary
32. Christine Michael
33. Ryan Nassib
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2013 Rookie Preview
34. Johnathan Franklin
35. Kenny Stills
36. Steadman Bailey
37. Kerwynn Williams
38. Andre Ellington
39. Denard Robinson
40. Quinton Patton
41. Jordan Reed
42. Marquis Goodwin
43. Ace Sanders
44. Tyler Wilson
45. Caleb Sturgis
46. Vance McDonald
47. Dustin Hopkins
48. Chris Thompson
49. Chris Harper
50. Luke Willson
~ end ~
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2013 Offensive Line Preview
The Big Uglies of 2013 (Offensive Lines Preview)
(by John Cooney)
Those Big, Beautiful Big Uglies.
Each and every offensive play in the long history of this grand and glorious game began with the
snap of the football from an offensive lineman. The first clash of will and muscle around the
game’s gridirons originates in the trenches. The front lines, composed of tackles, guards and
centers, fire the first shots in anger each week. It is the job of the offensive lines to set the tone
for their respective clubs, establish a base-line of demarcation, invade the turf occupied by the
opposition and impose the will of their unit over the defenders lining up directly across from
them.
Winning football games begins with dominance of the line of scrimmage, and winning on the
virtual fields of play in fantasy football also begins with the o-lines. Those darlings of the
ditches, the blocks of granite, the big, burly bullies on the front lines we affectionately call the
Big Uglies, are essential to the success of the fantasy football skill position stars.
Pro and college coaches sporting a championship trophy understand that their title prosperity
comes compliments of strong skill position play and a dominating offensive line. Quarterback
get the glory but those who understand the game, real or fantasy, make no quarrel or quandary
about the value of the big boys upfront who lay a rock-solid foundation for victory. Astute GMs
and owners go the extra mile and breakdown not just the sleek and sexy skill players like
quarterbacks, receivers and tailbacks, but also get to know those down and dirty “hogs” of the
offensive lines… the Big Uglies! Without the bully-boys up front providing Aaron Rodgers, Joe
Flacco, Tom Brady and other pro passers the time to chuck it often, chuck it deep the fleet-footed
pass-catchers are not hauling in highlight-making scores for you. Those new-fangled sporty and
shifty ball carriers of today are not one-cutting, side-stepping or toe-tapping their way for big
gains of turf unless those loveable ‘blocks of granite’ are steamrolling wide open roads to
daylight. That Jimmy Graham guy in New Orleans can do what he does thanks to a strong group
of blockers, allowing the Saintly tight end to get out into his route tree in the passing game.
Needy pass protecting units often require help from the tight end, capping a talented pair of
hands. A solid offensive line has a positive ripple effect on the fantasy players with tangible stat
lines.
Knowing each team’s o-line capabilities and situation is more important to a fantasy title run
than most realize. Fantasy draft decisions are made due to various facts and factors. The quality
(or lack of) of the offensive line should be worked into the equation. If you find yourself in a fix
on draft day, undecided on two running backs of similar skills, circumstances and strength of
schedule, it might be a good idea to know which back has the better blocking unit. In-season,
starting lineups are influenced by the performance of the grunts on the line of scrimmage. Even
player trades can be decided with some basis of the play of the o-lines involved.
Preparing for the 2013 season, let’s get a handle on the state-of-the-lines of all 32 teams and
indentify the Big Uglies that will be doing the dirty work for the glamour boys of the game. It’s
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early and situations change, just as on-field personnel will. Good research doesn’t happen
without a starting point; a baseline evaluation. This breakdown is an excellent ‘starting point’.
In fine Fantasy Football Mastermind form, I rank the o-lines with a uniquely detailed yet simple
process. Each individual line position/player on every NFL team was researched according to
2012 performances in both pass protection and run-blocking efficiency, as tabulated by Pro
Football Focus. Starting left tackles (LT) were ranked individually best-to-worst, 1-36. Left
guards (LG) 1-39, centers (C) 1-69, right guards (RG) 1-42 and then right tackles (RT) 1-43.
Every o-lineman was individually evaluated for their success (or lack of) in the passing game
and ground attack. Changes to personnel were taken into account, such as Louis Vasquez’
performance as a Charger in 2012 and translating to his potential in Denver in this season.
Rookie starters’ potential positive or negative influence and “fit” are considered and evaluated in
regards to the effect on a line’s continuity.
In addition to my own evaluations and stat research efforts, reports and scouting data by
offensive line experts were included in the final staging of the line ranks. The final result is a
deep and comprehensive study of past performance and potential performance for 2013.
This is a Mastermind process I created that takes the research down to each individual lineman
on every team, at each position, in both aspects of their games, pass and run blocking.
Not all blocking schemes are the same…as we all know.
In our Mastermind breakdown of the o-lines the probable scheme of blocking philosophy is
identified as well as the coach or coaches installing the weekly protection plans and teaching the
techniques. The predominant blocking schemes used in today’s NFL are the Zone and Man,
more specifically Stretch/Zone (ZBS) and Man/Power (MBS). Each has a direct effect on the
running back performing behind these lines, as well as the type of running back required. How is
this relevant in fantasy football? Simple; a straight-ahead, less-shifty halfback like Benjarvus
Green-Ellis doesn’t “fit” a stretch/zone scheme as well as Jamal Charles or Arian Foster.
ZONE BLOCKING (ZBS)-STRETCH/ZONE BLOCKING:
The zone blocking (ZBS) scheme and stretch/zone is fast becoming the scheme of choice in
today’s game. Spread offenses tend to install a ZBS version in the playbook. With the spread
offense being the HOT offensive philosophy in college these days, more pro teams are becoming
quite comfortable using zone blocking than ever before. Both the skill position players and the
linemen coming out of college are verse in the ZBS, thus they can hit the ground running once
drafted. ZBS also is a great weapon to neutralize and combat the size and speed of NFL
defenders.
Typically, smaller, quicker linemen are drafted for ZBS. Lateral quickness is extremely
important, as is the ability to engage, get off blocks, and get onto second level defenders.
In a zone-based offense, a single running back is set looking for two “reads”; DART, an inside
zone read or STRETCH, outside zone. There is no specific point of attack, like a designated
“hole” or “seal”. Inside zone sets up double team or tandem blocks and stretch zone blocking
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works as named, stretching and stressing the defense to the outside. The scheme calls for the
tandem to block an area, not a specific defensive lineman of linebacker. On inside zone, there
will be double teams whereas on outside zone play there will be no double teams except on the
edge. With all the Big Uglies moving in a direction as a unit, the defensive team scrapes and
surges to the play side. As the play flows to one side, one of the o-linemen in the tandem blocks
breaks off in search for the now-famous second-level block, creating those just-as-famous cutback lanes.
In ZBS, or “one cut” scheme, the running backs must allow the play to develop, recognizing
when and where a lane opens on play side or the “cutback”. The ball carrier needs patience,
“feel” or vision, great explosion and balance to hit the lane and get to the second level. This is
the common "one-cut" scheme you often hear mentioned with ZBS running backs. The ball
carrier attacks the furthest play side gap or run through a cutback lane.
In today’s NFL spread teams using shotgun will work the ZBS or Zone-Read Option, by
demanding the QB read an unblocked defender on the backside of the zone, keep the ball on that
edge if an advantageous lane opens there.
Zone pass protection takes on Gap tendencies as each lineman fills a gap on one side of him and
blocks the defender breaking through the gap. If the lineman has no one to block, he shifts
attention quickly to his line mate next to him and helps out while maintaining his primary gap
responsibility. A simple type of Zone Pass Pro is the "Step In" protection that you'll see in a lot
of two- back offenses. Here the o-linemen each jump into their respective inside gaps and lock
on a defender and the RBs and/or TEs man the gaps on the outside.
MAN BLOCKING (MBS)-MAN/POWER:
Man blocking schemes are old-time, man-on-man football. The object is to drive the defense
back and create one specific hole, using double teams and extra blockers at a point of attack on
the line. Offensive linemen are specifically locked on a particular defensive player to combat.
Man blocking schemes usually require specific responsibilities and rules on every snap. A
numbering system is set in Man Blocking plans, designated for the various defensive alignments
they will see. Most often you see the team’s center making blocking calls as the defensive front
is pointed out. The other o-linemen then identify their “man” or assignment. For an o-line unit
that has not had much time together (in this day and age of free agency), Man blocking can be
mistake-prone and confusing. Because of this, Man blocking schemes are not as prevalent as in
the past. It is still used, however, by about half the teams in the NFL.
"Man" pass protection, or BOB (Big On Big) is when the offensive linemen drives the defensive
linemen directly across from them. A disengaged linemen reads the LB close in and the fullback
or halfback will take care of any blitzing LBs or secondary personnel. The backs can also
support on a double team or chip block against troublesome pass rushers. BOB is often an
effective scheme, but zone blitzes have created missed assignments as a defender can neutralize
an o-lineman by faking a pass rush, stops and drops off allowing another rusher to attack the gap
vacated behind that lineman.
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NOTE: "Gap" Blocking is a third system that uses ideas from both Zone and Man. Teams that
like to trap and pull on running plays will employ Gap schemes at times. In a nutshell, a lineman
will take on a defender in the direct gap on either side of him. Versions of Gap is used in pass
blocking often.
In today’s NFL there are pass protection schemes that are hybrids of Man and Zone blocking.
Teams will playbook zone blocking on one side, and go man on the other. There are plenty of
variations, but the basics are Zone and Man.
Also, in the ever-evolving NFL coaches are experimenting and looking to create confusing
“looks” by installing and utilizing aspects of all blocking schemes. The Pittsburgh Steelers are
one such example, using a Man/Power scheme inside and to the tackles, but shift to a
Zone/Stretch on play calls to the outside.
Now that the schemes are highlighted, let’s get to the business of ranking the offensive line for
2013, and identifying each unit’s blocking scheme and o-line coach.
NOTE: Italicized players are new arrivals for 2013.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Offensive Line – Mike Solari - MBS-Man/Power
Offensive Line – Tim Drevno
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
13
1
LG
17
2
C
48
8
RG
16
1
RT
11
1
LT: Joe Staley
LG: Mike Iupati
C: Jonathan Goodwin
RG: Alex Boone
RT: Anthony Davis
San Francisco’s rugged and nasty front five is plain, old-fashioned good at what they do. They
are mean, they are physical, they are big and they focused. The Niners return the unit intact to
bulldoze their 2013 opposition. Three of the five starters rank as the NFL’s best run-blockers
while the other two road-graders wreck opposing run-stoppers as top nine ground bangers.
Coach Harbaugh plans to take full advantage of the rocket-armed and super-mobile Colin
Kaepernick at quarterback, and this blocking unit, though stout and rather large, is athletic
enough to execute a “move” offense. By sheer numbers alone this is a superior run-blocking unit
and an above average pass protection group. Continuity is firm with all five starters from last
season. RB Frank Gore, even at his relative advanced “age”, can excel once again behind this
wall of nastiness, as well as a maturing playmaker as LaMichael James. Bar-none, this is the
NFL’s premier front five, working in the perfect power scheme for optimum success. A unit this
complete can allow fantasy footballers to ignore Strength Of Schedule concerns for Frisco skill
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players. On the ground this is the NFL’s best drive blocking group and a stellar pass protection
unit. There is depth that bolsters the front line talent. No need to over-analyze the 49ers o-line…
they are really good!
2. Denver Broncos
Offensive Line – Dave Magazu - MBS-Man/Power (some ZBS)
Offensive Line Consultant – Alex Gibbs
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
4
17
LG
13
11
C
14
25
RG
6
26
RT
2
16
LT: Ryan Clady
LG: Zane Beadles
C: J.D. Walton
RG: Louis Vasquez
RT: Orlando Franklin
The Broncos bring back all five offensive line starters from 2012. However, RG Chris Kuper is
likely to be relegated to reserve status, if he makes the team at all after injury. Kuper is replaced
as a starter with the signing of Louis Vasquez. Vasquez is imposing inside at 6’5-335, and is a
dominating pass blocker. Denver’s o-line is geared to their QB, Peyton Manning, providing solid
pass protection. They are greatly assisted by Manning’s keen sense of timing, pocket awareness
and unmatched command of the offense. The run blocking is not quite on a par with the pass pro.
The strength of the line on the ground lies in the left side efforts of Ryan Clady and Zane
Beadles. Last season the Broncs ran mostly Man/Power schemes, but with legendary ZBS coach
Alex Gibbs on board as a consultant/assistant, there will be more zone influence. Coach Magazu
is still calling the o-line shots here, but Gibbs is sure to instill and install some facets of the
Stretch/Zone; like other teams a mix of schemes is being concocted. This solid unit is ready to
grade among the elite o-lines in the league right now. They play with urgency and there is a full
understanding that the time is now to go for it all.
3. New England Patriots
Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line – Dante Scarnecchia - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
21
5
LG
19
7
C
66
1
RG
17
14
RT
6
9
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
C: Ryan Wendell
RG: Marcus Cannon
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
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Quietly Coach Belichick has revamped New England’s front five without missing a beat.
Suddenly the Pats boast a talented and young group of blockers ready to gel. Tackles Solder and
Vollmer are studs, with Vollmer excelling in all areas of attack and protection. Solder tends to
allow too many sacks, but is top-shelf on the ground. RG Marcus Cannon looks about ready to
take over for veteran Dan Connolly and center Ryan Wendell is the best run-blocking pivot man
in the league; he does get fooled far too often in blitz reads however. QB Tom Brady’s savvy
work in the pocket masks some of the pass protection weaknesses of this unit, but improvement
is evident. The Pats rank 4 of their 5 linemen in the top 10 run blockers; OUTSTANDING! On
the ground Patriot rushers can get the job done regardless of the defense in front of them. There
are whispers of Coach Belichick shifting to a heavier commitment to the ground game while still
utilizing spread concepts and the up-tempo pace; a snap of the ball every 24 seconds is the goal.
The Patriot front five is up to the task physically and mentally; it is a fit and smart group.
4. Cleveland Browns
Offensive Line – George Warhop – MBS-Man/Power
Offensive Line – Mike Sullivan
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
2
24
LG
24
4
C
9
6
RG
22
32
RT
3
34
LT: Joe Thomas
LG: John Greco
C: Alex Mack
RG: Shawn Lauvao
RT: Mitchell Schwartz
Cleveland’s offensive line is a rough and rugged unit on the up-swing. LT Joe Thomas runs
among the elite at his position and probable new starting LG John Greco will make Thomas’ job
a bit easier. Greco is a tough run blocker who forms a solid interior core with center Alex Mack,
one of the NFL’s best. RB Trent Richardson’s poor 3.5 YPC is attributed not only to a myriad of
injuries, but also the less-than-stellar work on the ground by Thomas, RG Shawn Lauvao and RT
Mitchell Schwartz. Any Browns’ RB rushing to the right will be challenged to find open lanes
behind Lauvao and Swartz. However, Schwartz and fellow tackle Thomas are super in pass
protection, which will be key in the new, vertical offense installed by OC Norv Turner this
season. Mack is excellent sliding left or right in blitz reads, assisting his interior partners Greco
and Lauvao, both of whom tend to struggle when not firing forward. If Lauvao can improve
close to the level of the rest of his linemates, the Browns blocking unit will be a true difference
maker; it is already a solid gang of five as it is. Last season the Browns were in full transition
with a new head coach (Rod Chudzinski), rookies at QB, RB and WR. The term “raw” was used
far too often describing key components of the offense and this season “raw” could very well
warm up to “sizzle”. The team has a great start beginning on the o-line.
5. New Orleans Saints
Offensive Line – Bret Ingalls - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
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Offensive Assistant/Offensive Line – Frank Smith
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
20
22
LG
5
6
C
7
7
RG
2
15
RT
19
27
LT: Charles Brown
LG: Ben Grubbs
C: Brian De La Puente
RG: Jahri Evans
RT: Zach Strief
The Saints get an old friend back but with a new outlook. Coach Payton is back from his yearlong suspension and he plans on moving the running game higher on the play-calling food chain.
Coach has a fine foundation to achieve that goal with an outstanding o-line. The weak link has
been at LT, where the talented but oft-injured Charles Brown resides. He’ll be challenged in
2013 by rookie LT Terron Armstead. Brown can play at a high level if healthy, but that has not
been the case since being a 2nd rounder in 2010. He has already missed some OTA time due to
injury. The Saints could make due with Armstead learning on the job thanks to the skillful and
sharp decision-making of QB Drew Brees. Brees usually has clear sight-lines directly in front of
him as guards Grubbs and Evans along with center surprise DeLaPuente are excellent pass
protectors. The trio of interior blockers is also active and effective run blockers. New Orleans is
one of the best screen teams and guard Evans is tops in getting to the flanks and leading Darren
Sproles or Pierre Thomas to daylight. On the outside-right, tackle Streif is improving but more is
needed in all aspects of his game. The Saints’ well-balanced wall of protection is equally adept
in pass pro and run blocking. In 2013, Coach Payton is stressing the run game. New Orleans is
very strong up the middle which bodes well for between-the-tackles rusher Mark Ingram, a
tough, no-nonsense tailback who is at his best busting it up the gut. The now departed Chris
Ivory also exceled hitting the inside lanes for the Saints; expect Ingram to have “that” year as
this quality young offensive line gels into one of the league’s best.
6. New York Giants
Offensive Line – Pat Flaherty - MBS-Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Lunda Wells
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
11
3
LG
25
21
C
69
9
RG
19
4
RT
19
25
LT: Will Beatty
LG: Justin Pugh
C: David Baas
RG: Chris Snee
RT: James Brewer
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New York’s offensive line never seems to have marquee names on it, yet most seasons they statout among the league’s best. 2012 was a solid return to blocking prominence after a
disappointing and injury-marred 2011for Big Blue’s front five. This season the Giants’ o-line
may be even better with the addition of first round selection Justin Pugh. Pugh is likely slated for
LG duty, but he could find himself with his hand in the turf at RT, too. The Giants line is solid
and deep, again, thanks to the smart choice of Pugh which could allow veteran Kevin Boothe
slide to LG should Pugh move to the outside. The expertise of this group is in the run game, with
3 of the 5 block of granite ranking in the top 10 at their respective positions. LT Will Beatty is
All-Pro worthy and brings a solid all-around game. His counterpart James Brewer tends to
struggle, hence the chance Pugh sees work in place of Brewer. The NYG running backs all
enjoyed various degrees of success last season, running behind the Blue wall. New York’s o-line
does get unfairly penalized at times with Wilson carrying the football, as he often will become
impatient and run past his blocks, or miss lanes. Pass blocking has been more of an issue
however. Some of the breakdowns by the line could be blamed on QB Eli Manning’s tendency to
hold onto the ball too long. Also not helping is the failures and whiffs by RBs David Wilson and
Andre Brown in blitz pickup. Center David Baas is not as nimble as one would like and it shows
when he is forced to make adjustments while dropping into pass protection retreat. Wellcoached, veteran enough and good size, the Giants’ offensive line is set to help the likes of
sophomore RB David Wilson and goal-liner Andre Brown realize success on the field and in
fantasy football lineups. The pass protection is savvy enough to give Eli Manning the time he
needs to make his progressions.
7. Houston Texans
Offensive Line – John Benton – ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Jim Ryan
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
6
2
LG
23
19
C
3
11
RG
33
20
RT
21
43
LT: Duane Brown
LG: Wade Smith
C: Chris Myers
RG: Ben Jones
RT: Derek Newton
Houston’s 2012 version on the offensive line was better than expected, with the free agency
losses of RT Eric Winston (KC) and G Mike Brisiel (OAK) However, there was a sore spot on
the line last season and it was right there on the right side where Winston and Brisiel once
roamed. The right side of the Texans’ line was ineffective last season, and it is no coincidence
that RB Arian Foster’s YPC suffered. RG Ben Jones was decent blocking the run but was poor in
pass pro. RT Derek Newton flipped the rating, performing average-at-best in pass blocking but
failing to get much drive as a run blocker. Newton suffered a patellar tendon injury and is trying
to make it back this season. Houston drafted Brennan Williams (3rd round) just in case. A great
deal of success was experienced by the Houston offense when plays were run to the left. LT
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Duane Brown, LG Wade Smith and center Chris Myers arguable compose one of the best trios of
blockers in pro football, pass or run. However Smith is on the comeback from knee surgery and
at 32 his better days are likely behind him. Though Houston’s line is still able to create lanes for
star tailback Arian Foster in a ZBS scheme, injury and age are catching up with this unit and the
ground yards may be harder to come by again this season. Foster’s season-long 2012 numbers
look good, especially the touchdown total, but his 4.06 YPC is a big drop off from previous
years. This still quality group deserves this lofty ranking for now, but there are signs it could
break south quickly.
8. Minnesota Vikings
Offensive Line – Jeff Davidson – MBS-Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Ryan Silverfield
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
10
25
LG
26
33
C
12
2
RG
42
27
RT
10
2
LT: Matt Kalil
LG: Charlie Johnson
C: John Sullivan
RG: Brandon Fusco
RT: Phil Loadholt
Continuity is key for success for any offensive line and the Vikings return all five 2012 starters.
Any blocking unit that produces a 2000 yard rusher has to be getting the job done, regardless of
the tailback’s talent. Not only is the Viking front five talented, they are also young and headed
for even better and bigger rewards ahead. LT Kalil, RT Loadholt and C Sullivan are the
foundation blocks of granite and RG Fusco is likely to win the starting gig this season. Fusco
battled inconsistency last season but showed enough good tape to warrant a long look and should
take his roughhouse game up a level. LG Johnson is what he is, which is not on a par with the
rest of the gang of five. A solid camp from 2013 sixth rounder Jeff Baca could send Johnson to
the bench (or on the street). RB Adrian Peterson saw much of his success running right behind
Loadholt, Fusco and at times a pulling Sullivan. In 2012, that was the bread and butter side of
the line. On the left, while the young Kalil excelled at pass protection, he was only average
blocking the run game. Johnson, as stated, struggled to gain or hold his ground in both aspects of
the play calls. Youth, size and talent are on the side of the purple pile drivers and exciting days
are ahead.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Offensive Line – Andy Moeller - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Todd Washington
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
24
14
LG
17
14
C
15
20
RG
3
2
RT
26
32
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LT: Bryant McKinnie
LG: Kelechi Osemele
C: AQ Shipley, Gino Gradkowski
RG: Marshal Yanda
RT: Michael Oher
The champion Ravens oddly are tinkering with their o-line this off-season. LT McKinnie was resigned after performing in outstanding fashion during the title run. McKinnie was benched midregular season and replaced by Oher, but found regained his focus and scored the playoff gig,
which inspired the Ravens to bring him back for 2013. The inking of McKinnie pushes Osemele
inside to LG, solidifying the left side both in pass pro and run blocking. Osemele played mostly
RG last season. Yanda handles RG duty this season, and he is a top-3 performer there. RT will
be manned by Oher. Oher is OK on the right side where he doesn’t need to be as athletic as the
left. Oher still may be the weak link here. Center should prove to be a fun training camp watch as
Gradkowski and Shipley lock horns for the starting job. Solid vet Matt Birk turned in his
retirement papers after winning the Super Bowl. Baltimore had drafted Gradkowski in 2012, but
this off-season acquired the quietly improving Shipley from the Colts. Last season Shipley filled
in for Samson Satele in Indy and put up solid game tape. He is also versatile, being able to play
both guard spot as well as center. Gradkowski has the draft pedigree over Shipley, but astute
talent evaluator Ozzie Newsome doesn’t deal for players without a plan in place. Look for the
former Colt to win the camp battle and anchor this top-10 blocking unit.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive Line – Bob Bostad - MBS-Man/Power (some zone)
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
22
6
LG
12
12
C
19
51
RG
26
21
RT
9
17
LT: Donald Penn
LG: Carl Nicks
C: Jeremy Zuttah
RG: Davin Joseph/ Gabe Carimi
RT: Demar Dotson
It is a testament to good coaching and some nice depth that the Tampa Bay rookie RB Doug
Martin had the stellar freshman season he did. Tampa Bay’s o-line was hit hard by injuries on
the inside as the rough and tumble Joseph and All-Pro Nicks both went down with injuries. Add
in that C Zuttah and RT Dotson were nothing to write home about as run-blockers and Martin’s
2012 work is even more impressive. Both Nicks and Joseph should be good-to-go in 2013, but
there may be some concern regarding Joseph’s full return. The Bucs recently acquired Bears’
former top pick Gabe Carimi, who has failed at tackle. Chicago was committed to moving
Carimi inside to guard and the Bucs may look to do the same if Joseph struggles health-wise. If
Carimi finds his college mojo that made him a first rounder, he could very well send Dotson to
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the bench. Dotson seems to inspire negative press, but his overall work is better than what we
read. With a healthy return from the two top guards and solid play from LT Penn and either
Dotson or Carimi on the right, Tampa’s o-line is set to give their skill guys excellent support.
The group can pass protect with the best in the NFL, allowing just 26 sacks in 2012, despite
injuries. The run blocking is quite evident by the success Martin had. Brining Carimi on board
creates depth and versatility. The Bucco line is set to be one of the NFL’s best units in 2013.
11. Detroit Lions
Offensive Line – Jeremiah Washburn – MBS-Man/Power
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
15
8
LG
3
15
C
6
36
RG
30
25
RT
16
20
LT: Riley Reiff
LG: Rob Sims
C: Dominic Raiola
RG: Larry Warford
RT: Jason Fox
The Lions den of blockers were defined by the surprisingly sharp play of tackles Jeff Backus and
Gosder Cherilus. Neither will be lining up in a Detroit uniform this season as Gosder heads to
Indianapolis and Backus called it a career. Replacing Gosder is Reiff and Backus’ slot is filled
likely by Fox. The Lions coaches see Reiff more as a guard, even though he was an outstanding
tackle in college. However, Reiff has a few physical shortcomings as a LT at this level, and he
will be challenged to match the unsung work of Backus. Fox has virtually no game-time
experience as a four-year pro, but isn’t lacking in talent. Fox is a 2010 fourth rounder who has
been plagued by injury, but the coaches like his size and versatility, being able to play both sides
of the line (as he did at the U of Miami). C Raiola is reliable in pass pro but at his advancing age
(34) he is not exactly blowing defenders off the line run-blocking. Rookie Warford was rated by
many as a 2nd-round talent; he dropped to the 3rd and the Lions snapped him up. He’ll likely slot
in a RG alongside Fox, making the Lions right side of the line a gamble. LG Sims ranks as
Detroit’s best blocker and should help Reiff handle his LT assignments. Last season was the best
this o-line performed in a long time, but the loss of the two veteran tackles have to be felt in
2013. The Lions throw the ball more than any team in the game, and pass protection will be Job1 in training camp. The talent and size is there to get it done, but expect some bumps in the road
along the way.
12. New York Jets
Offensive Line – Mike Devlin – ZBS- Stretch/Zone
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
8
19
LG
35
9
C
16
5
RG
25
30
RT
30
4
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LT: D'Brickashaw Ferguson
LG: Willie Colon
C: Nick Mangold
RG: Brian Winters
RT: Austin Howard
The Jets o-line has been living off of rep more than results the last couple of seasons. The team
still boasts stalwarts such as LT Ferguson and C Mangold, but the three other line slots have
been iffy at best. Some of the ineffectiveness can be blamed on shotty QB play, poor “feel” by
the tailbacks, lack of playmakers on the outside to get open and questionable, predictable playcalling. Guess when you add all those disappointing areas of play together, maybe New York’s
front five isn’t so bad after-all. Out of the Jets’ hanger are guards Matt Slauson and Brandon
Moore. Veteran Willie colon fills the Slauson void. At this stage of his career, Colon is what he
is; an effective run blocker but way lacking in pass protection. Not much of an upgrade, if any,
over last year. Rookie tough-guy Brian Winters mans RG in 2013. Winters is a former high
school wrestler who excelled as a LT in college (Kent State). With 50 collegiate games under his
belt, Winters brings a mature presence and athleticism to the guard position in NYC. RT Howard
is a top-notch run blocker with good punch and power. His pass pro needs work, but it is getting
better. He and Winters are a potential power pounding right side duo for years to come. The Jet
game plan calls for a staunch ground attack and this mix of vets and youth possess the bulk and
attitude to open holes for new tailback Chris Ivory. Pass protection is not the forte here, so
expect heavy handoffs, and passing when necessary.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach/Offensive Line – Paul Alexander - MBS-Man/Power
Offensive Quality Control/Assistant Offensive Line – Kyle Caskey
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
1
23
LG
8
21
C
47
58
RG
5
18
RT
5
3
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Clint Boling
C: Kyle Cook/ Trevor Robinson
RG: Kevin Zeitler
RT: Andre Smith
Cincinnati’s offensive line is an impressive group, keen at pass blocking and improving on the
ground. The line’s strength is set from the outside-in. Tackles Whitworth and Smith are among
the best bookends in the league, with Whitworth possibly the best pass-blocking LT today. RT
Smith is equally sharp as a pass protector and leading the run around his side. Inside the two star
tackles are a couple of guards on the rise and ready to go as starters for just their second seasons.
LG Boling and RG Zeitler are excellent pass blockers and better run blockers than the Cincy run
game would suggest. Zeitler has a mean streak and can get nasty. 2012 tailback Benjarvus
Green-Ellis is a gamer, but he lacks burst and a second gear; the holes are there but he only gets
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what he can. A more explosive and creative rusher in freshman Giovani Bernard should enhance
the skills of these two rising interior linemen. C is the weak link if Cook makes it back from his
ankle surgery. Cook is savvy but gets pushed around far too easily. Trevor Robinson started in
Cook’s injury-induced absence and showed enough for the coaches to give him a shot at the
pivot. It is somewhat surprising to see 4 of the 5 Bengal lineman grade out as top 8 pass blockers
considering they “allowed” 46 QB sacks last season, but QB Andy Dalton holds the ball far too
long and takes sacks rather than throw it away. Cincy has done well as they continue to quietly
add talent and upgrade the entire offense. The o-line is ready to get the squad to the next level,
and they can do it either on the ground or in the pocket; it’s up to Dalton to use what they
provide.
14. Tennessee Titans
Offensive Line – Bruce Matthews - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Head Coach – Mike Munchak
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
3
15
LG
1
20
C
22
13
RG
30
23
RT
4
15
LT: Michael Roos
LG: Andy Levitre
C: Fernando Velasco
RG: Chance Warmack
RT: David Stewart
Tennessee is led by a HOF o-lineman in one Mike Munchak. The Titan Uglies are coached by
another HOFer and longtime Munchak teammate Bruce Matthews. This unit better perform or
else. The past few seasons saw the performance of this once touted group slip and slide. It
doesn’t help when they are blocking for a tailback that takes plays off and for QBs with loose
concepts of pocket workmanship. But there were leaks in the line, make no mistake. Plugging
the leaks in a big way will be new-comer LG Andy Levitre. A premier interior lineman, Levitre
is about the best pass blocker at his position and a pretty darn good run blocker to boot. He’s
more athletic than “big” but with help on his flanks he can be very effective in the ground game,
especially on stretch plays. RG was an issue and the Titans hope they solved the riddle with the
1st round selection of Warmack. Coming from “Bama, Warmack is pro-ready and thrilled to be
in Tennessee. Tackles Roos and Stewart continue to grade out as top pass blockers while still
very solid blocking their flanks. C Velasco can be pushed back at times by pass-rushing DTs, but
is mostly an effective anchor. The line is better protecting the passer, but overall this front five
has the potential to get back to top-10 status. With a couple of HOF linemen running the show in
practices and expensive shiny new pieces lining up at guard, an uptick in play is expected.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Offensive Line – Jeff Stoutland – ZBS- Spread/Zone (some Man/Power)
Assistant Offensive Line – Greg Austin
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Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
16
20
LG
2
1
C
25
17
RG
12
7
RT
16
16
LT: Jason Peters
LG: Evan Mathis
C: Jason Kelce
RG: Todd Herremans
RT: Lane Johnson
“That’s the perception, but it’s not true. We run a lot of the same plays here that we ran there.
It’s just that we’re spread out a little bit more than we were there. But the schemes are the same.
Zone plays. We ran the inside zone play at Alabama. We ran the outside zone play. Eddie Lacy
ran for 250 yards in the last two games of the year running the outside zone.’’ Those are the
words of new Eagles’ line-coach Jeff Stoutland, squashing the idea that Philadelphia will be a
spread-option offense in 2013. What the Eagles’ offense will look like with innovative HC Chip
Kelly calling the plays has been the talk of the off-season. The blocking scheme also has to be
pondered. Stoutland comes in from Alabama, and has a college resume filled with o-line success
in bigtime programs (“Bama, the U, Michigan St., ‘Cuse). No doubt the former Crimson Tide
title winner was brought in to ply what he knows best. Last season a very good Philly o-line was
decimated by injury and poor QB management. The top three cornerstones all went down with
season-enders (LT Peters, RG Herremans, C Kelce). The depth couldn’t handle the emergency,
and the QB Mike Vick was no help. In 2013 all three stalwarts return, though Peters is still a
question mark; tearing an Achilles twice is challenging. Coach Kelly was decisive in his first
NFL draft choice, 4th overall, tabbing very athletic tackle Lane Johnson. Johnson is a pure fit in
the Eagles new up-tempo scheme and is slated to go at RT. He could flip to the left flank should
Peters experience issues in his comeback. AS is, with Johnson and Herremans manning the right
side of the line, the Birds boast a dynamic duo that can thrive both running the zone and pass
protecting. Center Kelce is solid when healthy, and he seems to be on schedule. Mathis is
arguably the best overall guard in the game right now. Peters was viewed as football’s best LT
before his multi-injury event, though that praise may be a bit overstated. He’s good, but there are
times when his pass protection slipped. For some reason Peters gets the hype around the league.
Philly has the very real potential to bolt to top-five ranking with a return to health. The challenge
will be not only getting past the injuries but also returning in top condition with Coach Kelly’s
speedy playcalling. The quality is there but some early frustrations may arise while everyone
gets to know and work the new Kelly system. Fanballers should be patient as this unit comes
around down the stretch.
16. Washington Redskins
Offensive Line – Chris Foerster - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Chris Morgan
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
15
7
LG
6
44
C
11
4
RG
9
11
RT
41
44
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LT: Trent Williams
LG: Kory Lichtensteiger
C: Will Montgomery
RG: Chris Chester
RT: Tyler Polumbus
2012 rookie RB Alfred Morris is the latest late round miracle performed by Coach Shanahan.
Coming into the NFL Morris was viewed as a fullback by some scouts and personnel men. So
what happened? How does a “fullback” from small school Florida Atlantic go on to bang out
over 1600 yards, 4.8 a carry and 13 TDs in his first year as a pro? In Washington, they used to
call them the Hogs. The Redskins’ front five just plain old got the job done, and done well.
Morris was good, but no tailback can achieve those numbers on his own… OK, maybe Barry
Sanders. As good as Coach Shanahan has been in making rushing stars out of bottom draft talent,
he also has consistently produced top quality, athletic and effective offensive lines. Not only was
the 2012 version of the Hogs good run blocking, they also manned-up as a rock-solid pass pro
group. The weak point of attack/protection was at RT. Polumbus flat lined in both areas of his
assignments, but he returns in 2013 hoping to improve. He’ll be challenged by Tom Compton.
His counterpart, Williams, was top-shelf pass and run. The interior is strength, especially in
protecting QB RGIII, but LG Lichtensteiger doesn’t get much push on the ground and will need
to toughen up as the unit looks to advance. The one important factor that the DC front five have
going for them is continuity, as all five starters from last season are back. In Coach Shanahan’s
program of success, the line playing in scheme and lockstep is key. The depth is only average,
and staying healthy will be important. If RGIII can return, Coach Shanahan can find playmakers
outside and WR Pierre Garcon can stay on the field, this o-line will provide the skill players with
ample opportunity to flourish.
17. Buffalo Bills
Offensive Line – Pat Morris – ZBS Stretch/Zone
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
23
12
LG
30
35
C
13
65
RG
8
31
RT
17
11
LT: Cordy Glenn
LG: Sam Young
C: Eric Wood
RG: Kraig Urbik
RT: Chris Hairston
The Bills are going through a huge transition in 2013 with the canning of Pistol/Spread schemer
Chan Gailey as head coach. The new field boss is former Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone.
Ivy league-bred Ryan Fitzpatrick no longer tosses his ill-advised passes for Buffalo; Kevin Kolb
and rookie top pick EJ Manuel get that nod. While Fitzpatrick wasn’t all that great as a starting
QB, he did make quick decisions, right or wrong, and got the ball out quickly. Kolb, on the other
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hand, tends to hold onto the rock too long, and who knows what Manuel is capable of in year
one. The 2013 Bills’ wall of protection will need to adjust to the changes on the sidelines and
under center. Tough task, especially with Buffalo’s best lineman in 2012 off to greener turf (G
Andy Levitre). Looking at how poorly the interior of the line graded out as run blockers makes
RB CJ Spiller’s 2012 performance even more impressive. Spiller’s blinding speed was a perfect
fit in Gailey’s 5-WR induced running lanes and the Buffalo linemen weren’t required to hold
their blocks long. The young unit has some upside heading into this season, even with the loss
free agent loss of Levitre. Tackles Glenn and Hairston are fine all-around talents. C Wood
provides leadership and consistency, though he isn’t strong getting after DTs in run calls. LG
Young will need to step up and fill Levitre’s big cleats… not sure he’s up to the task. RG Urbick
is a solid pass protector and an average run blocker. Urbick and Hairston make up a solid right
side and the duo is the strength of the pass protection. QB play often helps or hinders a line’s
performance, and in 2013 Buffalo is in a QB quandary with Kolb and Manuel. The road to
success will be a bumpy ride for Bills skill players as the front five try to gel with the new
system.
18. Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Line – Andy Heck – ZBS-Stretch/Zone (some Man/Power)
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
9
28
LG
40
43
C
17
27
RG
15
5
RT
16
16
LT: Branden Albert
LG: Jeff Allen
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Jon Asamoah
RT: Eric Fisher
The Chiefs have built an impressive blocking unit on paper. Once disgruntled LT Albert was
supposedly ticketed for Miami on or around draft day, but the deal fell through. Now he is back
and seemingly he and the coaches are happy about it. Albert is not elite, but he’s right in the
neighborhood. Even with Albert back in the fold, the KC brass went ahead and drafted the highly
touted Eric Fisher. Projected as a LT, Fisher will flip to the right side, forming a potentially
awesome bookend with Albert. 2nd season LG Allen was a bit of a disappointment last season,
and has been seeing camp snaps at center. The move is partly due to Allen’s shaky guard play,
and also because Coach Reid has not liked what he sees in C Hudson. 2012 3rd round tackle
Donald Stephenson has taken some plays at LG with Allen in the pivot. Stephenson makes a
gifted and athletic guard. At RG, Asamoah is set and improving each season; he enters year four
in 2013. Blessed with size and athleticism, the gang of five can get after the run game quite well.
Now in Coach Reid’s West Coast scheme, the ground game will follow stretch zone plays and
quicker pass plays, which should help the line’s somewhat iffy pass pro. Keep in mind that
Coach Reid has designs of using Pistol aspects in the playbook, with innovative Nevada U
legend Chris Ault adding his two-cents in. Pistol formations force defenses into more man
situations, including blocking; the Chiefs line is well-armed for one-to-one battle. Piece by piece
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Kansas city has a front five that could vault to the top-5 ranks. The key is assimilating into
Coach Reid’s ways and new QB Alex Smith’s ability to continue his excellent play he displayed
last season as a 49er. Already proficient in run blocking, look for the Chiefs line to leap in
quality as a pass protection unit, and the KC skill position guys to bang out fantasy friendly stat
lines.
19. Seattle Seahawks
Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line – Tom Cable - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Pat Ruel
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
5
8
LG
33
35
C
23
3
RG
28
37
RT
31
28
LT: Russell Okung
LG: James Carpenter
C: Max Unger
RG: J.R. Sweezy
RT: Breno Giacomini
Many assume the Seattle offensive line is a road-grading, nasty and mean bunch that physically
dominates the opposition. That perception is mostly derived from association with the Seahawks
rough and rugged defense and the hard-nosed running of Beast Mode Lynch. In actuality, the
‘Hawks o-line is good, well-coached and effective but hardly the meat-grinding force of, say, the
49ers. Seattle boasts two very good rocks up front in LT Okung and C Unger. Okung thrives in
all aspects of gridiron trench warfare. Unger is a fine run blocking pivot but average in pass pro.
Some of his deficiencies are due to having to keep his eyes open left and right in support of
leaky guards Carpenter and Sweezy. Carpenter played just 7 games last season, missing time
with knee and head injuries. Sweezy was forced into action with RG John Moffitt playing just
six contests. Sweezy is a converted college DT. Seattle’s line was also assisted by the quick feet
and fast wheels of QB Russell Wilson, who worked the pocket superbly all season. Coached by
line guru Tom Cable, Seattle’s front five is young enough to absorb Cable’s teachings and
improve. Between the coach’s expert work and better health, there is reason to expect better
performances all-around. The right side of the line, however, has a lot of ground to make up.
Inexperience and questionable talent between Sweezy and Giacomini could cut the effective
field in half for the Seahawk offense, forcing QB Wilson to his left often and narrowing his
options. Coach Cable gets all he can from this bunch, but there is no room for error or lapses in
play. Last season all went as well as could be expected up front; defenses find cracks in blocking
walls and exploit them quickly. This is a middle-of-the-pack o-line.
20. Atlanta Falcons
Offensive Line – Pat Hill - MBS-Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Paul Dunn
LT
LG
C
RG
RT
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Pass Rank
Run Rank
18
29
16
41
36
43
20
21
16
16
LT: Sam Baker
LG: Justin Blalock
C: Peter Konz
RG: Garrett Reynolds
RT: Lamar Holmes
QB Matt Ryan deserves more credit for his 2012 work that he gets. Ryan has stepped up each
season, and has done so behind a very average o-line. The Falcon passing attack is aggressive
and prolific but pass blocking has not been a strength. In fact, Atlanta’s run blocking leaves a lot
to be desired. A plodding Michael Turner was a major issue, but the quicker, shiftier Jacquizz
Rodgers wasn’t any more effective other than being a better receiving option. Turner averaged
3.6 YPC while the darting Rodgers struggling to get to 3.9 YPC. There is no one player that
stands out along the front line of the Falcons. LT Baker has never met his potential as a LT; he
isn’t bad, but he surely isn’t stellar. RT will be manned by 2012 third round pick Holmes, who
has virtually zero pro experience. It’s no wonder that QB Ryan takes hits far too often just after
release. Center Todd McClure is hanging it up, prompting a move to the open pivot by last
year’s rookie LG Konz. Konz was unimpressive as a guard in his freshman season at this level.
Now he’ll be making line calls and sliding left or right in blitz reads… YIKES! Reynolds lines
up at RG, and he may be the most consistent of the unit… that is not saying much as Reynolds is
only average in both areas of blocking skills. LG Blaylock is a fairly strong pass protector, but is
soft setting the blocks for the ground game. Overall, it is a testament to the coaching staff and
Matt Ryan that the Falcons are as potent offensively with this sort of a front five. Many
fanballers are giddy about the prospects of new signed RB Steven Jackson having a “special”
season in this offense. Best to hold down the enthusiasm a bit. Jackson worked awfully hard to
achieve the stats he did in St. Louis, and the blocking unit he’ll be following this season isn’t any
better than what SJax ran behind as a Ram. Jackson isn’t suddenly going to find the fountain of
youth and rediscover the burst he once had about 4-5 years ago, and this line as currently
constituted will not be blowing open truck-sized holes in defensive fronts. Buyer beware…
Atlanta’s o-line is a sneaky negative to consider in 2013.
21. Miami Dolphins
Offensive Line – Jim Turner - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Chris Mosley
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
40
40
LG
7
16
C
2
10
RG
10
40
RT
7
10
LT: Jonathan Martin
LG: Richie Incognito
C: Mike Pouncey
RG: Lance Louis
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RT: Tyson Clabo
The Dolphins front five was considered one of the league’s better unit a couple of seasons ago.
They have slid down the ranking however with very inconsistent play and at times just dumb,
immature decision making by linemen. However, the Miami brass and coaches must feel the line
isn’t far off from being a solid unit as in the course of the off-season spending spree little
finances have been slotted to overhauling the unit. There was a plan to deal for the Chiefs’
disgruntled LT Branden Albert, but that trade never happened. Free agents Bryant McKinnie and
Jake Long were also on the want list, but Miami never really made legit offers to secure their
services. RT Clabo was signed as a free agent, and that is a good addition. Clabo was the
Falcons’ best lineman in 2012, and is solid in both pass and run schemes. Of note is the change
in scheme for Clabo, who did well in a power blocking format; Miami run a zone blocking
scheme. The LT spot rests on the ample shoulders of sophomore Martin. Martin needs to turn his
game completely around of QB Ryan Tannehill will struggle to make it through the season.
Martin’s rookie year at RT was plain terrible. He seems to lack an edge to his game and his
technique is lost. As bad as his pass blocking was in 2012, Martin’s run blocking was no better.
Playing next to Martin will be LG Incognito. Incognito does have a nasty streak but often it leads
to dumb and/or ill-timed penalties. He has made some improvement in keeping his game under
control, but he still has his moments of lapse. Like Clabo, Incognito is better suited for the
man/power system. RG Louis was also signed off the street, but he is coming off knee surgery
and may not be up-to-speed. C Pouncey is solid and a great start to building a quality line. He’ll
need to stay healthy or this group goes down in a hurry. Pass blocking by this group looks to be a
risky situation, but there is run-blocking talent on board. The power side is on the right with
Clabo, Louis (if healthy) and Pouncey pulling out that way. Super soph RB Lamar Miller should
see his number called to that side of the line often, but Miller tends to do his damage running
left. Could be a conflict of skills is LT Martin is not able to pick up his run blocking and
Incognito struggles in stretch/zone adjustments. Too many question marks sit in the front five,
and caution needs to be exercised when considering Dolphin skill guys.
22. St. Louis Rams
Offensive Line – Paul Boudreau, Sr. - MBS-Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Andy Dickerson
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
24
22
LG
40
30
C
26
64
RG
12
24
RT
12
27
LT: Jake Long
LG: Rokevious Watkins
C: Scott Wells
RG: Harvey Dahl
RT: Rodger Saffold
St. Louis is shifting to a faster, pass-heavy offense in 2013. Gone is longtime warrior tailback
Steven Jackson. In are the likes of fast and furious players Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson, Chris
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Givens, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Stedman Bailey and Brian Quick (ok, maybe Quick). Having
all these new-fangled weapons on offense is great for QB Sam Bradford… if the offensive line
can provide the needed support to get these speedsters the football. Injury toyed with the
potential last season in St. Louis’ front five, but that potential was iffy anyway. LT Jake Long
was acquired to improve this lot, and his addition actually kicks up two line spots at once. Long
at LT flips 2012 LT Saffold to the right flank. Saffold didn’t have a great rookie campaign in
2012, but he wasn’t bad either. Moving to the right almost automatically makes Saffold a better
player. Long on the left should be an improvement over Saffold’s 2012 work, IF Long plays to
his previous standards. He should under Coach Fisher and Coach Boudreau. Watkins is a big one
at LG at 6’4-330. He suffered an ankle injury and was lost last season. Watkins played both
guard and tackle in college and could be the key to swinging this unit way up the charts. C
Wells, a respected vet and solid leader, also was derailed by multiple injuries. A return to health
by Wells is crucial. Again, if Wells is back at his usual consistent level of play, he bolsters the
run and pass blocking on the inside, helping Watkins as he matures. Rough and ready RG Dahl is
beginning to slow down a bit, but he is a good fit in the man/power scheme. Dahl brings an edge
of nasty to the group. Dahl and Saffold create a right-side strength for S. Louis, and look for
plenty of Pead-Zac Stacy-Richardson calls to go that way. The left side of the line could also be
set IF Long gets his game back in order and Watkins pans out. With a change to an offense based
on getting the football out quicker, speedier tailbacks and fast-twitch receivers, the o-line should
not need to hold their blocks as long as in the past. There is potential in this unit, and a season of
health and experience will go a long way to moving the Rams front five higher in the rankings.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Offensive Coordinator/Offensive Line – Bill Callahan – MBS- Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Frank Pollack
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
27
4
LG
32
3
C
40
20
RG
34
22
RT
29
20
LT: Tyron Smith
LG: Nate Livings
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Mackenzy Bernadeau
RT: Doug Free
Dallas needs a complete turn-around by the o-line to help QB Tony Romo and company in 2013.
The Cowboy front five was a disaster pass blocking last season, with Romo having to scramble
around the pocket far too often; he took far too many hits too. Not only did Romo have to do his
best Fran Tarkenton impressions, but the running game also took a hit. This blocking unit was
just plain awful. The Cowboy brass were jones-ing (get it, Jones… Jerry Jones? Never mind) so
badly for help they reached for C Frederick as a first round savior. Some had the prospect rated a
third round talent. LT Smith has the size and talent and was good run-blocking but not so good
protecting Romo’s back. LG Livings was excellent in run support, but a liability in pass pro.
Livings is better than his 2012 pass performance, and he was likely hampered by his shaky LT
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partner. The right side of the Dallas line is less than adequate. Bernadeau has never met
expectations and Free is a major disappointment. Both linemen a faulty in run and pass blocking
and may lose their places on the front five with unimpressive camps. For a team that likes to put
the ball in the air, the Cowboys’ front office did little to lift the potential of the foundation on
offense, the o-line. Jerry Jones is counting on line coach Callahan to get the group to over
achieve. There is hope (and the skills are there) that the left side of the line comes together
quickly and becomes a strength. But the right side looks to be a gaping hole once again. For
fantasy football owners that are targeting Cowboys skill guys, best not to reach in acquiring the
men wearing the star on the helmet.
24. Green Bay Packers
Offensive Line – James Campen - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Joel Hilgenberg
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
24
30
LG
1
7
C
23
31
RG
10
32
RT
24
23
LT: Bryan Bulaga
LG: Josh Sitton
C: Evan Dietrich-Smith
RG: T.J. Lang
RT: Derek Sherrod
The Pack has transformed the Big Uglies in Green Bay from last season to this. 2012 LT
Marshall Newhouse was weak in his pass protection and his run blocking chores. That left QB
Aaron Rodgers in harm’s way far too often. Rodgers already likes to hold onto the pigskin to the
last second to allow his routes to fully develop. So how to fix the situation? Packer coaches
flipped the better blocking duo of Bulaga and Sitton from the right flank to Rodgers blindside.
Sitton has become one of the NFL’s premier guards, stellar in pass protection and a rock on the
ground. His presence on the left interior will allow the young Bulaga to concentrate on
protecting Rodgers’ back on drop backs. Bulaga is athletic enough but will try to play past his
perceived short arm challenges. Sherrod moves over to RT, after failed attempts as a guard and
injuries. Sherrod is big, smart and tough, possessing excellent qualities to play the right flank.
Lang flips from LG to RG, and seems to be a late blooming lineman that shows versatility. The
Pack let veteran C Scott Wells walk and brought in the very veteran (old?) Jeff Saturday. That
turned out to be a bust move, and Dietrich-Smith took over for Saturday later in the year. It is
now up to D-S to improve on his mediocre work down the stretch last season. It is quite clear
that the Green Bay offense will funnel through the left side of the line., behind Sitton in
particular. The Packer pounders of the o-line are better in the pass game than clearing running
lanes. Green Bay rushers have not been overly impressive the past few seasons. However, this
unit can make an impressive jump forward with a little up-tick in the play of Sherrod (and
health) and the left-side flip actually working as expected. There are still too many “IFs” in this
group to rank higher at this time, but the potential to become an effective, fantasy friendly group
is surely there.
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25. Oakland Raiders
Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Line – Tony Sparano – MBS-Man/Power
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
7
14
LG
20
25
C
1
41
RG
23
42
RT
16
24
LT: Jared Veldheer
LG: Tony Bergstrom / Lucas Nix
C: Stefen Wisniewski
RG: Khalif Barnes
RT: Menelik Watson
Once again the Raiders are changing directions, flipping over from Zone/Stretch blocking to a
Man/Power scheme. The main reason supposedly is RB Darren McFadden was a poor fit for the
zone read which calls for tailbacks to scrape the line of scrimmage and hit the first seam that
opens, rather than a specific hole. That didn’t quite fit DMC’s style as he doesn’t possess the
suddenness to cut back, get skinny and knife his way through slivers of daylight. Not sure what
scheme will keep McFadden from succumbing to injury yet again. A problem that is sure to
surface quickly is the fact that some of the line talent currently on board are geared for zone
blocking. Oakland used a 2nd rounder on Watson, slated for RT duty. Watson is better suited for
zone work than power scheme. Also, RG Mike Brisiel, injured last season, was brought in from
Houston for his zone blocking experience. He’ll try to come back from injury and adjust to being
a power player. 2012 RT Barnes will also get a shot at the RG spot, and he is a better power fit
than Brisiel. Brisiel is the better all-around blocker, so a camp battle is the call. C Wisniewski is
a stand-out pass blocker who doesn’t factor in the run blocking. He should improve in the new
scheme. LG looks to be another camp battle between Bergstrom and Nix. Bergstrom has solid
size for the interior position and is a 2012 third rounder. LT Veldheer is a stud blindsider and
excels in both aspects of his game. Oakland does have some horses to work with and make
positive strides in 2013. The past two seasons the line has allowed just 25 and 27 sacks
respectively, ranking 7th and 5th best in the NFL. That is even more impressive considering the
cement-footed Carson Palmer has been taking most of the snaps. Good teams with established olines can absorb the errors that are bound to occur in a scheme change. The Raiders are neither a
good team nor are they actually a good blocking front five. Power or Zone, Oakland’s line is
sure to struggle to find its footing due to several pieces being poor fits. As the line stutters, so too
will fantasy attractions like McFadden, Denarius Moore and whoever finally wins the QB battle.
They don’t call Oakland the Black Hole for nothing.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
Offensive Line – Jack Bicknell, Jr. - MBS-Man/Power/ ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
19
30
LG
4
39
C
18
18
RG
25
26
RT
31
21
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LT: Marcus Gilbert
LG: Ramon Foster
C: Maurkice Pouncey
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Mike Adams
Last season the Steelers felt they made significant advancements on their beleaguered o-line by
investing their top two draft picks on blue-chippers DeCastro and Adams. The best laid plans
often fail and this plan did just that. Adams flopped, especially as a pass blocker, and DeCastro
never really got started. The Pitt 1st rounder went down with a pre-season knee injury and was
way behind in his three games. Adams and DeCastro constitute the right side of the line, so the
Steelers are once again hopeful that the young duo can make big strides in their sophomore
seasons. C Pouncey is what any team would ask for at that position; good key caller, strong in
the run game and adept in picking up blitz reads. LG Foster is an underrated pass protector, but
fails to get good push in the ground attack. LT Gilbert will be lining up on the left for the first
time, flipping over from RT where he started five games last season. Former Jaguar Guy
Whimper was signed for depth, but he is a liability in pass pro. It is obvious the Steelers are
counting on their prized top two picks form last season to make their mark in 2013. With Foster
and Pouncey already established interior pass blockers, a return to health and form from
DeCastro and Adams would punch this group’s ticket to a higher ranking. Pittsburgh is
anticipating on a return to a more balanced offense, featuring more runs with rookie tailback
LeVeon Bell. If they can stay away from o-line injuries, the unit can meet expectations and set
the tone for the offense. But until I see Adams look like a semi-franchise tackle and DeCastro
not only stay on the field but become the first round road grader he was drafted to be, the Steeler
Uglies take a back seat among the league’s blocking units.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Offensive Line – Joe Gilbert – MBS-Man/Power
Offensive Assistant – Tim Berbenich
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
30
10
LG
36
28
C
68
23
RG
17
6
RT
1
13
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Hugh Thornton
C: Samson Satele
RG: Donald Thomas
RT: Gosder Cherilus
Indianapolis surprised so many last season with their success while inserting several rookie
starters in key roles. QB Andrew Luck was a revelation, eclipsing 4000 passing yards and 20
TDs. However, the Colt freshman took far too many hits and was on the move almost every
snap. The off-season saw a focus on protecting the Luck investment, as GM Grigson
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249
aggressively bolstered the line by signing free agents Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus.
Thomas was a top 6 run blocker at RG and a solid pass protector while Cherilus graded out as
the top pass blocking RT and also flourishes in the ground game. Not finished with the
revamping of the front five, Grigson drafted huge LG Thornton in the third round, and he should
be part of the starting five day one. Already in the fold is former 1st round LT Castonzo, who is
just beginning to find his pro game. The LT is a solid run blocker but still allows too much
pressure when on his heels in pass pro. If all falls in place, the weak link will be at center where
vet Satele works. The Colt line anchor is just not good holding the line in pass calls, getting
pushed into the backfield too easily. Satele is an OK run blocker but the Colts may regret
shipping quietly improving C AQ Shipley to the Ravens. The depth-like talent that was forced to
start last season now falls in line as solid reserve talent. Indy will run a West Coast Offense this
season, meaning quicker, shorter patterns where the o-line won’t need to entertain their
opposition as long as last year. Suddenly the Colts o-line has a look for true potential. If all goes
well, this unit will bolt up the charts, but until they prove it, Indianapolis gets the lowly rank
here. But keep an eye here as there is top-shelf skill position talent wearing horseshoes on their
helmets, and the new scheme melding with the potential can fast become a fantasy football
goldmine.
28. Chicago Bears
Offensive Coordinator/Offensive Line – Aaron Kromer - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Pat Meyer
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
28
18
LG
9
30
C
21
66
RG
43
5
RT
25
20
LT: Jermon Bushrod
LG: Matt Slauson
C: Roberto Garza
RG: Kyle Long
RT: J'Marcus Webb
The front line of protection in Chicago has been gutted with holes and a broken foundation for
years. Year after year the Bears bosses bring in various skill players to fix the offense, be it Jay
Cutler, Brandon Marshall, drafting Matt Forte, etc. Year after year the offense eventually falters,
often when the QB goes down once again to injury after relentless pounding. Finally, with a new
head coach in place (Marc Trestman) and a new offensive philosophy, GM Emery committed to
fixing the real issue… the o-line. This offseason Emery opened the wallet and shelled out for
established former Saints’ LT Bushrod. The interior of the line was addressed, they hope, by
spending a round one pick on G Long, who was slated for the left inside job but with the trade of
Gabe Carimi, Long takes the RG slot. Here’s the rub once again… does the incoming talent
match the program being installed? Bushrod and Long are pretty fair run blockers, but iffy in
pass pro. Coach Trestman is bringing a pass-heavy scheme to the Windy City in 2013. Another
ripple of a free agent signing was former Jets’ guard Slauson. Slauson IS a fit in the passing
game, ranked 9th among RGs last season in pass blocking. He isn’t a great road grading type, but
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250
in the new air focused attack that should be a worked around. With Bushrod manning the left
flank, Webb moves over to the right side. Webb has been a whipping boy for Bears’ fans, but
down the stretch last season he seemed to turn his game around. Flipping to the right side takes
some of the immense heat off the young tackle and allow him to continue his late season gains.
How C Garza still has a job is a mystery. Former Jaguar Eben Britton was signed to provide
some depth, something this unit hasn’t had in a long time. Scheme changes create early miscues.
However, inconsistent play from the o-line in Chicago is nothing the QB hasn’t experienced
before. Trestman’s passing offense tends to utilize short-to-mid range routes. If that stays true to
form, the o-line may improve just by not having to hold their blocks long. The Bear blocking den
is improved by names on the jerseys, but they need to gel and get it done on the field.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Offensive Line – George Yarno – ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Luke Butkus
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
14
11
LG
35
38
C
60
67
RG
32
8
RT
16
20
LT: Eugene Monroe
LG: Will Rackley
C: Brad Meester
RG: Uche Nwaneri
RT: Luke Joeckel
Jacksonville always seemed to have good linemen on the roster, but injuries, play calling and
skittish QB play has hampered their collective efforts. A new scheme is being installed, going
from a power game to the Stretch/Zone. The Jags do have some valuable assets in the front five,
starting with the very excellent Monroe at LT. Monroe is equally sharp in pass pro and leading
the ground attack from his side. Monroe can play in any system; he’s that good. Rookie top pick
Joeckel will man the right outside spot on the line. If he pans out as advertised, the Jags have
themselves bookends of max quality. Inside the hope is the nasty boy Rackley can make it back
from his ankle surgery that cost him the 2012 season. Rackley is a better fit in the power
blocking game, and that is the case with several other in the Jags’ front five. RG Nwaneri also is
a fine power guard, bruising in the ground game but limited in his agility for pass pro. He may
also be limited running stretch plays. Nwaneri is making a comeback from knee surgery. C
Meester is very veteran (36) and other than providing heady line calls, offers little in any part of
the offense. Last season this unit cost the Jacksonville QBs 50 sacks, but much of the blame rests
on the poor decisions of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne. Better play from the men under center
would help take this unfairly criticized front five to mid-ranks of the league. There is talent and
size here, but they need to assimilate into the new blocking scheme, Stretch/Zone.
30. Carolina Panthers
Offensive Line – John Matsko - ZBS-Stretch/Zone
Assistant Offensive Line – Ray Brown
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Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
19
9
LG
43
28
C
32
60
RG
59
62
RT
35
33
LT: Jordan Gross
LG: Amini Silatolu
C: Ryan Kalil
RG: Geoff Hangartner
RT: Byron Bell
What a fall from o-line grace this group has taken! On paper the Panther blockers look like a
quality bunch, but on the field they just fail to get it done. LY Gross is the exception, as he
provides excellent support in the run and covers QB Cam Newton’s blindside well. C Kalil was
injured last season, causing G Hangartner to move into Kalil’s pivot. Hangartner was just not
good there, and heads back to RG. LG Silatolu needs to pick it up, especially in his pass
protection. It is difficult to figure where the very mobile Newton is at any time, but more
awareness by the entire group other than Gross is required. Kalil returns to man the center spot,
and he has been a quality performer there. Panthers and fantasy owners need Kalil to return to
pre-injury form. RT Bell is needs to be challenged in camp. Carolina is moving to a more
traditional run attack in 2013, with Mike Shula calling the shots on offense. At least the Carolina
front five is a hair better in that aspect of blocking. There is little depth and an injury to any one
of Kalil, Gross or Silatolu would make football life for Panther skill players more difficult than it
already is.
31. San Diego Chargers
Offensive Line – Joe D'Alessandris – MBS- Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Andrew Dees
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
16
26
LG
15
20
C
64
54
RG
19
15
RT
16
23
LT: King Dunlap
LG: Johnnie Troutman
C: Nick Hardwick
RG: Chad Rinehart
RT: D.J. Fluker
Wow! This is not a pleasant sight! The Charger line actually has King Dunlap penciled in as the
starting LT. YIKES! Dunlap has poor footwork and no burst in his game. On the right side will
be rookie Fluker. Fluker was impressive for the scouts but there were some late signs that he
isn’t franchise-type quality. 2012 RT Jerome Clary may move inside in an attempt to either add
depth or hide his pass blocking deficiencies. The guard spots are up for grabs with suitcase toting
Rinehart and Troutman battling Clary. C Hardwick is aging quickly and his effectiveness is all
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252
but gone. San Diego’s front wall allowed 49 sacks last season, 4th in the NFL. QB rivers isn’t a
habitual holder of the football, so much of the blame goes to the mish-mosh of very average
performers. Gang, it isn’t getting any better in 2013.
32. Arizona Cardinals
Offensive Coordinator/Offensive Line – Harold Goodwin – MBS- Man/Power
Assistant Offensive Line – Larry Zierlein
Pass Rank
Run Rank
LT
39
30
LG
4
39
C
20
63
RG
35
30
RT
32
22
LT: Levi Brown
LG: Jonathan Cooper
C: Lyle Sendlein
RG: Earl Watford
RT: Bobby Massie
New coach, new attitude, and maybe some luck is in store for this maligned Redbird o-line.
Coach Arians actually has faith that there is potential in the current linemen already on the
roster. LT Brown has been flat out bad in his pass blocking. He was returning from an injury
however. RT Massie struggled most of the season, but began to find his way down the stretch
and put up some good film for Coach Arians. Massie was a freshman last season and if the light
has truly come on, he may work out. LG is ticketed for top pick Cooper and another rookie,
Watford, looks to be the front runner for RG. Watford is a 4th rounder. C Sendlein is heady but
limited. He is quite weak in pass rush pick up and gets mauled backwards. Coach Arians and
GM Steve Keim have made it a point to talk up the very same players who mostly comprised the
worst front line in football last season. It will be a monumental challenge to execute Arians deep
route passing game successfully if this unit performs anywhere close to last season’s pitiful
standards. To boot, Arizona’s o-line was just as bad in establishing the line of scrimmage for the
run game. There is a whole lot of work to be done here. Fanballers can “like” what they hear
from Coach Arians and Mr. Keim, but let the eyes tell the story when the teams take the field.
Liking Larry Fitzgerald, Carson Palmer and company in your fantasy draft? Beware!
~ end ~
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253
2013 Dynasty Player Rankings & Draft Strategies
2013 FFMastermind.com Dynasty Player Rankings
VERSION 2.0 - 7/26/2013
by Brent Lathrop
Any questions or comments can be directed towards Brent Lathrop
•
These rankings are based on three years of projected production and should be judged
accordingly.
Quarterback
7-26-2013
Position Battles:
Philadelphia – If Chip Kelly’s offense translates to the NFL, then the starting QB will be a
valuable asset. If you’ve been around here long enough you know my feeling on Vick. He just
can’t be trusted as a fantasy asset with his injury history. Foles only played in seven games last
year and is still a bit of a wild card. Since the Eagles are in rebuild mode, I give the edge to
Foles to start the 2013 season as the Eagles QB.
New York Jets – This is one I’d recommend staying away from completely. I’ve never been a
big Sanchez fan but I’ll give him this, he’s right. He will begin the 2013 season at the Jets
starter. Doesn’t mean much, because he has no value whatsoever. Geno Smith isn’t an exciting
option either as the Jets QB situation is a fantasy wasteland.
Buffalo – The Bills have some talent at the receiver position, so whoever’s behind center could
be a solid bye week option. Kolb comes in after a few horrible seasons in Arizona. E.J. Manuel
is the future of the franchise, with the investment they made in him this year in the draft. While I
do give the edge to Kolb to come out of camp the starter, it’s Manuel that you want to have on
your roster. He’s younger, stronger and has much more upside.
6-26-2013
Robert Griffin III (WAS) – You can grab Griffin currently in rounds 5-7, which if he is health
projects to be an amazing value. You can do that, I won’t. Griffin is indeed an amazing talent.
He however will follow the same trend at Michael Vick has in his career. He will always be an
injury risk. Vick has played one full season his entire 10-year career. Griffin takes a beating and
is not nearly built like Cam Newton, who looks like a linebacker. So if RGIII is able to come
back week 1 and start, don’t come crying to me when you are going into your fantasy playoffs
with an injured or banged up Griffin and no other alternatives.
Jay Cutler (CHI) – Bounce back season for Cutler, which makes him a sleeper at his current
ADP. We already know that he and Marshall have great chemistry, but Jefferey is ready to take
the next step as well, which will put defenses on their heals.
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254
Sam Bradford (STL) – It will be interesting to see the progress that Bradford makes after being
in the same offense for the second straight year, for only the first time in his career. While the
weapons he has at his disposal are very young, there’s a lot of potential there starting with Tavon
Austin.
Running Back
7-26-2013
Position Battles:
Denver – Why does this look likes it’s going to be eerily similar to the Carolina Panthers
backfield situation of the last several years? Oh, John Fox! Many expect rookie Montee Ball to
emerge as the leader of this backfield, but soon forget that Fox hates rookies. Well hate is a
strong work I guess, but he does not favor rookies in the least. Coming into camp second year
man Ronnie Hillman is listed as the starter. Knowshon Moreno will steal some carries as the
veteran of the group, but he’s no threat to win the starting job. It’s going to be a full on
committee in Denver with Hillman coming out of the gate early and then Fox giving Ball a
chance to see what he can do in real games. Hillman isn’t an ideal every-down back, so if you
want to target one of these guys it’s Ball.
St. Louis – Doesn’t get much murkier than this. Isaiah Pead coming into this off-season was
considered the favorite, despite not showing much last year, but his one game suspension has
opened the door for fellow second year back Darryl Richardson. Rookie Zac Stacy will be in the
mix as well and you’ll see his name on a lot of sleeper lists. Richardson will be the starter once
week 1 comes around. I see him as more of a third down or change of pace, than en every-down
back. If I had to put my money on someone, it would be Zac Stacy. I’m not putting my life
savings on that though, because I see this as a “hot hand” situation where the Rams ride the guy
who’s looking the best that day.
Green Bay – It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a productive Packer running back.
Frustrated by that fact the Packers took two talented running backs in the draft. It’s not often
you see two rookies duking it out for the starting running back slot, but that’s what we’ll be
seeing when Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin battle it out in training camp and the preseason.
This is one that probably won’t be settled until closer to the start of the season. So who do you
target? I’m going with Franklin here. Just because you come from a powerhouse in college,
doesn’t mean you’ll be successful on the next level. Much like USC quarterbacks coming into
the League were overrated, so are Alabama running backs. Lacy will follow in the footsteps of
Ingram and Richardson and disappoint.
6-26-2013
CJ Spiller (BUF) – Major talent rising up the charts quickly. Went from NFL bust to budding
superstar pretty quickly. He’s still a young pup at 25 and someone that you could potentially
build your team around.
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Alfred Morris (WAS) – An amazing rookie season that really surprised everyone. Shannahan
will say he wasn’t surprised, but he was. He would probably be up a few more notches if I
wasn’t concerned at least a little bit about the Shannanigans we’ve seen from the Shannahan
since Terrell Davis was no longer his prized running back.
David Wilson (NYG) – Small sample size, but has the potential to be special. Andre Brown
will most likely steal quite a few touchdowns as the goal line back, but his big play ability will
counteract that. The risk here is that it took him a while to get some love from the Giants staff
last year. If Bradshaw wasn’t a free agent would Wilson be the favorite to start the season as the
#1 guy?
Wide Receiver
7-26-2013
Position Battles:
New England – Right now the only sure thing is Danny Amendola. There’s some buzz about
Aaron Dobson starting on the other side, but he’s a rookie. Julian Edelman is the only returning
receiver on the team, but he’s got similar skills to Amendola. Michael Jenkins is the veteran of
the group, but he’s never impressed in his 10-year career. For dynasty purposed, the choice is
clear..Dobson. In the short-term Jenkins will probably win the starting job to provide that
veteran leadership and who knows, maybe the former 1st round bust finally puts it together with
Tom Brady throwing him the ball.
San Francisco – With Crabtree getting injured the 49ers are in a world of hurt. They have a
choice of 2012 1st round pick AJ Jenkins, 2013 4th round pick Quinton Patton or..well, that’s
pretty much it. Mario Manningham and Kyle Williams are both on the PUP list and both could
potentially miss some playing time this season. Unless the niners bring in another body, they’ll
be starting one of the young guys. With the way Jenkins “performed” last year with only ONE
target all season I’m going to put my money down on Patton starting opposite of Anquan Boldin
in 2013. Does that mean he has value? Slight, but he’s more of a #5 guy on the list with some
potential.
Tennessee – Justin Hunter comes in as the hot item as the Titans stayed local and grabbed
Hunter in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft. Nate Washington is coming off a disappointing
season, but the veteran showed some promise in 2011. Kendall Wright is last years 2nd round
pick and put up nearly identical numbers to Washington last season. With youth on his side
Wright has the advantage and will start opposite Britt. Since Britt has a been a brittle player
over his career so far, whomever starts opposite him will be Lockers number target for a few
games.
6-26-2013
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Calvin Johnson (DET) – I don’t think there’s any question as to who’s #1 at receiver. He broke
the Madden curse and he broke records, despite not only starting out slow but also amongst
reports that he played with broken or injured fingers for most of the season. He’s a once in a
lifetime player who is still only 27 years old, despite the fact that it seems like he’s been in the
league for a long time. I’m putting money on a 2000-yard season for Johnson this year. With
his size and leaping ability, he’s the most unstoppable receiver in the game. Quite possibly in the
history of the game. Time will tell.
Falcon Receivers (ATL) – Both these guys finished neck and neck last year, so you’d be good
to grab either Julio Jones or Roddy White…heck if you could have both of them, it’s one of the
few times in fantasy that it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Jones because of his age and incredible
athleticism is the one that has the most upside and longevity.
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) – Jeffery intrigues me, as he does with many. So that probably takes him
out of the sleeper category since he’s on everyone’s radar. With all the attention that Marshall
receives and one year under his belt Jeffery has breakout type talent. Helps that this offseason
he’s been doing all he can to shed the notion that he’s not good with his conditioning.
Tight End
7-26-2013
Position Battles:
Cleveland – Jordan Cameron is finally said to be getting his shot to become the man in
Cleveland. Kellen Davis is a veteran presence and a good run blocker. If you recall Jordan was
hyped by NBA Los Angeles Clippers PF Blake Griffin as being the best player in the draft and
deserving of the number one pick. He was selected slightly later, as the 102nd pick overall. That
said he does have some skills and will most definitely break camp as the starter in Cleveland.
6-26-20123
Patriots TE’s (NE) – It’s a mitigated mess, officially. Coming out of the 2012 season they had
two of the most desirable TE’s in the game both on a fantasy level and NFL level. Gronk is an
injury risk, yet again, and Hernandez is no longer a Patriot and in major trouble personally as he
fights for his freedom. That leaves Jake Ballard as the likely starter coming into the season.
There’s the possibility that they bring in a free agent or make a trade, but Ballard, if healthy
could actually be a decent option. In 2011 he had a pretty good season with the Giants. If you
are drafting right now, he’s the obvious choice if you want a New England tight end, but it’s a
situation to monitor to see who else they bring in.
Dennis Pitta (BAL) – All signs point to Pitta as being a top tier tight end in 2013, but there’s
just something that says one year wonder to me. Not that is makes any sense, since Boldin is
gone and Pitta likely becomes one of Flacco’s favorite targets..so let’s just call it a gut feeling. I
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still have him in my top five based on expectations and potential, but part of that is the mess in
New England and the fact that the rest of the guys after him are just kinda there.
Antonio Gates (SD) – Gates is on the decline, but can be a serviceable tight end. His seven
touchdowns last year ranked 6th at the position and he finished just outside the top 10 in fantasy.
Because there are quite a few up and coming younger guys, Gates is falling and will be just as
good as the Gresham’s and Rudolph’s, but come at a cheaper cost both in the draft and trade
wise.
Dynasty Rankings Legend:
Red = Hot Player, stock rising
Blue = Cold Player, stock falling
® - Designates Rookie Players
*Age is based on players age at the start of the 2013 season
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Drew Brees, NO
Matt Ryan, ATL
Andrew Luck, IND
Cam Newton, CAR
Tom Brady, NE
Matthew Stafford, DET
Peyton Manning, DEN
Robert Griffin III, WAS
Tony Romo, DAL
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Joe Flacco, BAL
Jay Cutler, CHI
Philip Rivers, SD
Eli Manning, NYG
Russell Wilson, SEA
Andy Dalton, CIN
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Carson Palmer, ARI
Matt Schaub, HOU
Sam Bradford, STL
Josh Freeman, TB
Jake Locker, TEN
E.J. Manuel, BUF ®
Nick Foles, PHI
Matt Flynn, OAK
Kirk Cousins, WAS
Age
29
34
28
23
24
36
25
37
23
33
25
28
30
31
32
24
25
32
25
33
32
25
25
25
23
24
28
25
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham, NO
Jason Witten, DAL
Vernon Davis, SF
Owen Daniels, HOU
Dennis Pitta, BAL
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Jermaine Gresham, CIN
Antonio Gates, SD
Greg Olsen, CAR
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
Heath Miller, PIT
Tyler Eifert, CIN ®
Brandon Myers, NYG
James Casey, PHI
Martellus Bennett, CHI
Coby Fleener, IND
Jared Cook, STL
Jermichael Finley, GB
Fred Davis, WAS
Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Zach Ertz, PHI ®
Scott Chandler, BUF
Dwayne Allen, IND
Jake Ballard, NE
Brent Celek, PHI
Zach Miller, SEA
Jordan Reed, WAS ®
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258
Age
28
31
29
30
27
28
37
28
33
28
23
30
24
28
28
26
24
26
26
27
28
23
28
23
25
28
27
24
29
30
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Matt Barkley, PHI ®
Geno Smith, NYJ ®
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson, MIN
Arian Foster, HOU
Doug Martin, TB
Trent Richardson, CLE
Ray Rice, BAL
LeSean McCoy, PHI
Marshawn Lynch, SEA
C.J. Spiller, BUF
Alfred Morris, WAS
Matt Forte, CHI
David Wilson, NYG
Jamaal Charles, KC
Chris Johnson, TEN
Darren McFadden, OAK
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
Stevan Ridley, NE
Steven Jackson, ATL
Reggie Bush, DET
Darren Sproles, NO
Ryan Mathews, SD
LeVeon Bell, PIT ®
Giovani Bernard, CIN ®
DeMarco Murray, DAL
Frank Gore, SF
Jonathan Stewart, CAR
Mark Ingram, NO
Vick Ballard, IND
Lamar Miller, MIA
Michael Bush, CHI
Chris Ivory, NYJ
Eddie Lacy, GB ®
LaMichael James, SF
Montee Ball, DEN ®
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN
Robert Turbin, SEA
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Fred Jackson, BUF
Ben Tate, HOU
Mikel Leshoure, DET
Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL
23
22
29
30
Age
28
27
24
23
26
25
27
26
24
27
22
26
27
26
28
24
30
28
30
26
21
21
25
30
26
23
23
22
29
25
22
23
22
28
23
30
32
25
23
23
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Marcedes Lewis, JAX
Ladarius Green, SD
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson, DET
A.J. Green, CIN
Julio Jones, ATL
Brandon Marshall, CHI
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Jordy Nelson, GB
Roddy White, ATL
Dez Bryant, DAL
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Steve Johnson, BUF
Andre Johnson, HOU
Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Victor Cruz, NYG
Mike Wallace, MIA
Randall Cobb, GB
Vincent Jackson, TB
Wes Welker, DEN
Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Antonio Brown, PIT
Miles Austin, DAL
Michael Crabtree, SF
Dwayne Bowe, KC
Percy Harvin, SEA
Torrey Smith, BAL
Eric Decker, DEN
DeSean Jackson, PHI
Marques Colston, NO
Tavon Austin, STL ®
Greg Jennings, MIN
Steve Smith, CAR
Justin Blackmon, JAX
Kenny Britt, TEN
James Jones, GB
Alshon Jeffery, CHI
Pierre Garcon, WAS
Danny Amendola, NE
Mike Williams, TB
Reggie Wayne, IND
Kendall Wright, TEN
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU ®
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29
23
Age
27
25
24
29
30
28
31
24
25
27
32
25
26
27
23
30
32
25
25
29
25
28
25
24
26
26
30
22
29
34
23
24
29
23
27
27
26
34
23
21
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
T7
T8
Ronnie Hillman, DEN
Zac Stacy, STL ®
Michael Turner, ATL
Peyton Hillis, KC
Ryan Williams, ARI
Ahmad Bradshaw, FA
Isaiah Pead, STL
Shonn Greene, TEN
Joique Bell, DET
Knowshon Moreno, DEN
Daryl Richardson, STL
Andre Brown, NYG
Johnathan Franklin, GB ®
Bilal Powell, NYJ
Chris Wells, FA
LeGarrette Blount, TB
Pierre Thomas, NO
Bryce Brown, PHI
Marcus Lattimore, SF ®
Marcel Reece, OAK
Willis McGahee, DEN
Daniel Thomas, MIA
Donald Brown, IND
Rashard Mendenhall, ARI
Roy Helu, WAS
Christine Michael, SEA ®
Jonathan Dwyer, PIT
Bernard Pierce, BAL
Kendall Hunter, SF
Danny Woodhead, NE
21
22
31
27
23
27
23
28
27
26
23
26
23
24
25
26
28
23
21
28
31
25
26
26
24
22
24
23
24
28
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
T7
T8
Danario Alexander, SD
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN ®
Mohamed Sanu, CIN
Stephen Hill, NYJ
Rueben Randle, NYG
Denarius Moore, OAK
Greg Little, CLE
Lance Moore, NO
Josh Gordon, CLE
Michael Floyd, ARI
Brian Quick, STL
Robert Woods, BUF ®
Sidney Rice, SEA
Keenan Allen, SD ®
Justin Hunter, TEN ®
Brian Hartline, MIA
Stedman Bailey, STL ®
Anquan Boldin, SF
Ryan Broyles, DET
Malcom Floyd, SD
Golden Tate, SEA
Brandon Lloyd, FA
Vincent Brown, SD
Cecil Shorts, JAX
Aaron Dobson, NE ®
T.Y. Hilton, IND
Nick Toon, NO
Markus Wheaton, PIT ®
Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND
Charles Johnson, GB ®
~ end ~
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260
25
22
23
22
22
24
24
30
22
23
24
21
27
21
22
26
22
32
25
32
25
29
24
25
22
23
24
22
26
24
Dynasty Draft Strategies
(by Brent Lathrop)
Redraft leagues are fun, but those who enter the Keeper/Dynasty league realm and succeed are
the ones that know what they are doing. It’s easy to get lucky one year by drafting a relative
unknown like Alfred Morris and ride his improbable season to a championship. It’s a
completely different ballgame when you are drafting Alfred Morris in a dynasty league because
now you have something to build around, and at a bargain price at that. This gives you amazing
leverage if you already had a good core roster. You can trade some of your players that are
getting older for picks, cap space or for a position you need some talent at.
Franchise Quarterbacks
Getting a franchise quarterback is a key to being an annual threat in fantasy football. Prior to
2009 I too didn’t value the QB position, as it should be. However, after doing some research
that offseason I changed my view and think it’s vital to get a franchise quarterback. Early on in
my keeper league “career” I was very fortunate to grab a few guys off waivers that turned into
fantasy gold. Kurt Warner won me a couple fantasy trophies, and in the same year I snagged
him I grabbed Steve Beuerlein (when he had a monster year in Carolina in 1999). Talk about
your good fortunes. Grabbing two quarterbacks who threw for 36 and 41 touchdowns off the
waiver wire? That’s a once in a lifetime occurrence.
Because of that situation I obviously devalued the quarterback, which is a mistake I’ve made up
for recently by grabbing Aaron Rodgers. In a keeper/dynasty league finding someone like a
Peyton Manning or Tom Brady will help keep your team competitive for years. The owner in
our league that drafted Peyton Manning as a rookie still has him on his roster and if he’d been a
more attentive owner may have more than the one championship to show for it. If you have the
chance to either trade for or draft a young quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, Kevin Kolb, or
Matthew Stafford you need to take that gamble, even if the cost seems a little high for you at the
time. There’s a really good chance that they’ll be sitting on your roster in 6-7 years than that
running back or receiver you traded to get him.
Grab or Trade for a Workhorse
The trend of having a RBBC is slowly dwindling. We are seeing more teams go back to the
workhorse approach with a change of pace back as the backup. There aren’t a lot of them, so
being sure you have at least one of these players is one step towards fantasy success. You don’t
want to be relying on DeMarco Murray, Steven Ridley or Jonathan Stewart types as your #1
fantasy back. While Ridley had a good season, he was still sharing the load in New England.
Stewart is a talented back, but again he’s splitting with DeAngelo Williams. If you aren’t able to
have one of the top five backs on your team, getting a guy like Spiller, Forte or MJD will at least
give you a back who isn’t in a committee and has potential to do special things
You Can Never Have Enough
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There is a reason why running backs go off the board so quickly in fantasy football drafts. They
are the cogs of any fantasy football machine. Without having a good backfield your team doesn’t
stand a chance. If you are just starting your dynasty league the best approach is to stock up on
young, quality running backs. In the second year of my keeper league five of the first six picks I
made were young running backs with potential to be great. The strategy there was to have at
least two of these guys pan out and I’d be set for several years. Worked as planned and two of
those backs were a part of a few championships and set us up for success for several seasons.
Changing of the guard
The NFL has become a pass first league. Records were broken last year in large part because of
the shortened offseason, changed rules and the simple fact that teams air it out more than they
used to. Detroit, New Orleans, New England, to name a few act as if they don’t have a running
back at times. We don’t see many teams like San Francisco who have gone to the old school
grind it out mentality. With this in mind it’s not a bad strategy to grab a few top-notch receivers
out of the game if you miss on the first 5-6 running backs. They will produce just as much or
possibly better than the next 10 or so running backs, most of which are unproven or in a RBBC.
Buy Young, Sell Old
One of the biggest keys to staying competitive is getting a good feel for when a player is going
to drop off in production. Being able to trade a player away before their value deflates is
absolutely crucial to your franchise. It’s like the stock market, only more important…right? A
perfect example of this is Shaun Alexander. Since his record-breaking season (at the time) of
2005 he has fallen off the face of the earth. If you were smart enough to trade Alexander in the
off-season of ’06, you sold high and got maximum value for him. Some will say it was because
he received the big money, but I personally account it to wear and tear. True, money may have
been a factor, but I was one of those fortunate ones to trade him that off-season. Why did I do it?
Because I’m always looking ahead and projecting when a RB hits 30. I thought Alexander might
have a good, maybe great ’06, but he was turning 29 in 2006 and I saw a good opportunity to
trade for young talent and keep my team fresh. Guess what, I would have been called crazy but I
would have done the same thing with LT after his amazing 2006 season or possibly this offseason. He turned 30 in 2009 and that is the magic number for running backs. Trading while a
player’s value is at its peak will keep you competitive. There have been a few running backs
that have bucked this trend of RB’s hitting the wall at 30, but not enough to sway me from this
strategy. Even with an uber-stud like LT.
While it’s pretty easy to figure out when a RB might start going down hill, it’s quite a different
story for all other positions. The fact is those positions just don’t take as much of a toll on your
body. Even a QB who gets hit constantly isn’t taking the pounding a running back takes.
Generally a receiver usually starts to “lose a step” around age 33-34 and quarterbacks around 3435 years old. If you are able to constantly stay on top of this and know when a player is reaching
that those thresholds, you’ll find that your team will stay young, fresh and most importantly
competitive enough to win the big one.
Gut Check
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The truth of the matter is most of this game we love so much is all about gut feelings, or good
analysis of player talent. Some teams just get in their own way by constantly trading away
players because they like to trade and they wonder why they are losing all the time. Maybe it’s
because you just traded your best player for a few marginal players? If you keep shooting
yourself in the foot with bad deals and bad draft decisions, maybe you should pull a bizzaro and
do the exact opposite of what you were doing. Your “break” isn’t going to come if you are
always making bone headed decisions.
Take Risks
You’ll find that if you are always playing it close to the vest you’ll just be another team, that sits
around .500 every year and never really has a legitimate chance of winning. The decisions you
make on players aren’t always going to be easy ones. When I traded away Shaun Alexander I
was nervous about him having another spectacular season and me looking foolish. It was a
major risk, but one that I weighed the options on and was willing to make..and willing to pay the
consequences had he thrived after I traded him. If you have an aging player at a position I
encourage you to try and start this approach this off-season. See what kind of young talent you
can bring in for someone like LT, Brian Westbrook or Terrell Owens. It may sting, and be
difficult but in a year or two you’ll reap the rewards.
~ end ~
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2013 Specialty Player Rankings
2013 Specialty Player Rankings
(by John Cooney)
When it comes to fantasy football, there are several different rankings we all get
inundated with. There are basic scoring rankings, yardage intensive rankings, distance scoring
rankings, rankings by shoe size. The lists go on and on. Yet, there are very few rankings that put
players into perspective that could be the difference between taking a guy on draft day or not.
Those rankings don’t show up on the websites or in the magazines. Well, maybe not everywhere.
At FFMastermind.com, we try to keep all your bases covered, so we’ve devised our own
specialty rankings – good and bad – for fantasy owners to use as a supplement to our rankings
guide. We came up with these several years ago primarily as explanations as to why, when one
of us was actually on the clock and had to make a pick, we chose one player over another –
elevating someone when we had what might be our only chance to get him or devalue a player
when faced with the same decision.
COMING IN EARLY AUGUST.
~ end ~
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2013 QB Rankings Analysis
2013 QB Player Rankings Analysis
(by Michael Nazarek & John Holler)
POSITION OVERVIEW: There was a time not too long ago that quarterbacks would
be devalued on draft day because there would only two or three that fantasy owners felt they had
to have – usually Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and then everyone else. Then Drew Brees joined
the party. So did Aaron Rodgers. In the last couple of years, the elite QBs have been
exponentially multiplying like rabbits – Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III,
Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, etc.
The fantasy QB position may find itself in the same level of devaluation. But, this time it
isn’t due to the lack of top-end talent, it’s due to the dearth of it. In a 12-player league, an owner
can ignore the position and let everyone else grab a QB and still have the choice to double-up on
a tandem that could include the likes of Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip
Rivers or Jay Cutler. With a little pre-draft study, finding two quarterbacks whose schedules
mesh nicely and consistently give them a strong weekly play between the two of them that can
be a solid Plan B backup plan that could be just as effective as using a first-round pick on a
Rodgers or Brees and waiting 10 rounds to select a one-week backup that remains (plus using a
first-round pick on a running back or wide receiver).
One thing that appears to be certain is that the combination of the pass-happy NFL and
the influx of young QBs capable of doing damage with both their arms and their legs, the
quarterback position is going to be coveted by a lot of fantasy owners.
Tiering Analysis: In 2012, there are just two QBs clearly ranked ahead of the pack in the top
Tier, New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees and Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. They
are as close to an automatic 25+ fantasy points per game as you can get. That said, the next two
Tiers are not that far behind. And that means we see a clear 11 QBs that should be drafted as
fantasy starters, meaning great value can be had in the middle rounds of your draft. The
wildcard in Tier #2 is Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. He struggled early in 2012, only to
tear it up down the stretch, as he reclaimed a top 5 fantasy QB slot. Denver Broncos QB Peyton
Manning may have been a risk last year, but entering 2013, he is a clear elite QB once again.
What Manning gained in WR Wes Welker, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady lost, as he
slides out of the top Tier. Unlss you draft Brees or Rodgers early, the best bet may be drafting
Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo as late as the 7th or 8th round. Moving on to Tier #4, there is
a mix of veterans with questions and youngsters that have potential for top 10 status in this
group. Veterans like New York Giants QB Eli Manning and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben
Roethlisberger can produce the big games, but also usually throw in a stinker in multiple weeks
either due to inconsistent play (Big Ben) or the offense gets out of sync (Manning). We like
second-year Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson to continue to develop into a solid fantasy
starter, but have our doubts that he could become an elite producer. The 5th Tier contains fantasy
backups, some with potential, and some on the downside of their career. St. Louis Rams QB
Sam Bradford has shown flashes of brilliance, but also comes with an injury history. Can
Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick win the starting job and stay healthy under new HC Chip
Kelly? What about Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco and he fat new contract? Can he produce
even more without WR Anquan Boldin? And what about Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler? Did
the Bears improve the OL enough to keep him healthy? The 6th Tier still includes big fantasy
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265
risks, ones to consider only as a #3 fantasy QB in the final rounds of your draft. Oakland
Raiders QB Matt Flynn and and Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker could climb out of this tier
provided they start, their health holds up, and they show consistent growth in their development.
QB Draft Tips - QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Drew Brees, will likely go within the first 30 picks
of your draft in most cases. We don’t advise taking a QB with your first two picks, but if a top
Tier QB slides to you in the third round, seriously consider taking one. Of course, if your league
rewards TD passes with 6 points, the top 2 are a lock to be top 5 picks. There is great depth at
TE, so we advise to draft an elite QB before an elite TE. After the top two QBs go off the board,
there could be a delay of a round or so before the next one goes. If you miss out on a top Tier
QB, then MAKE SURE YOU DRAFT A TOP 11 RANKED QB before they all go (likely by the
end of the 7th round in 12-team drafts). Once you have your fantasy starter at QB, try to grab a
backup rated in the top 4 Tiers. FFMastermind.com’s Mike Nazarek took QB Ben
Roethlisberger to back up QB Tony Romo (taken in round #7) in the 11th round in the FF Index
Magazine Mock Draft. Bottom Line: If you can’t get an elite top Tier QB in the third round, try
to get one ranked in the top 11 by the 7th round. If you can get a 4th Tier player to back him up
by round 11 or 12, do it.
THE MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: With so much depth at QB, drafting one in the first
TWO rounds is not a good idea. Draft a combination of RB/WR with your first two picks. If a
Brees or Rodgers slides to you in round #3, take him. Otherwise, consider QB Cam Newton in
round #4 or wait and draft a top 11 QB by the 7th round or you will likely miss out on drafting
one. If you miss out on a top 11 QB, target QB Russell Wilson (high upside). If you get stuck
with a player like QB Eli Manning as your starter, pair him up with a fairly young QB with
potential like QB Andy Dalton. If you are looking for a #3 fantasy QB with potential, you
should consider Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker or Oakland Raiders QB Matt Flynn. Yes,
they have boom or bust written on them, but their upside could surprise in a good way.
FIRST TIER (THE BEST)
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans
When Brees came to New Orleans, there were questions about his surgically-repaired throwing
shoulder. Seven years later, he has punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. In seven seasons with
the Saints, he has never thrown for less than 4,388 yards and has topped 5,000 yards three times.
Over the last five seasons, his passing touchdowns have incredibly consistent and on the rise –
34-34-33-46-43. Including a pair of rushing TDs, over the last two seasons, he has accounted for
a whopping 91 touchdowns and 10,653 passing yards. The Saints offense relies as much on
Brees as any team in the league. While QB Aaron Rodgers may get the nod with a lot of fantasy
owners, Brees should be viewed as either QB 1A or 1B. He throws as often as any QB has in
league history – he has thrown 635 or more passes in five of the last six seasons and has
completed more than 400 passes in five of those six seasons as well. The only difference
between him and Rodgers is that Brees isn’t a big running threat – over the last five years he has
rushed 100 times for just 120 yards and four touchdowns. The highest compliment he can be
paid is that any owner who has had him before wants him again, so he won’t last long on the
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board on draft day. STAT FACT: In his last 21 games, he has thrown three or more touchdowns
in a whopping 16 of them (76 percent). Even more stunning is that he has three or more passing
TDs in 11 of his last 12 games at the Superdome.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
If there was ever a question as to whether Rodgers was the top fantasy QB in the league, he
dispelled any doubt last year, throwing for 4,295 yards with 39 touchdowns, just eight
interceptions and two rushing TDs. In his five years as a starter, he has topped 4,000 yards four
times and had 3,922 in the other year (playing 15 games). Over the last two seasons, Rodgers has
thrown 84 touchdowns and rushed for five more. His value as a fantasy quarterback has only
been enhanced in recent years and is just as dangerous as a runner, having run for 18 TDs in five
years as a starter. The upward fantasy momentum continues to grow and he had a strong baseline
to start from. In five years as a starter, he has never thrown for less than 28 touchdowns and has
never had less than 32 combined TDs in any season. If there is such a thing as a sure thing, it
would be Rodgers. He can lose a key receiver (like he did with Greg Jennings last year) and not
miss a beat. While the Packers run game is expected to make them less one-dimensional,
Rodgers is too good to pass up as an elite QB on the draft board. STAT FACT: In 31 starts over
the last two seasons, Rodgers has thrown three or more touchdowns in 18 of them and topped
300 passing yards in 14 of them.
SECOND TIER (POTENTIAL TOP 2)
3. Cam Newton, Carolina
Newton’s fantasy value depends on the format your league employs. If rushing yardage points
are handed out in small increments, his numbers belie his production. As a rookie, he burst on
the scene with 35 total touchdowns – 21 passing, 14 rushing – and 4,057 total yards – 4,051
passing, 706 rushing. Last year, his yardage total remained pretty consistent (3,869 passing, 741
rushing), but his touchdowns dropped from 35 to 28 (19 passing, eight rushing). Given how high
he was ranked in most fantasy drafts, those numbers didn’t quite cut it when compared to the
weekly production that was expected. Newton’s primary calling card is his rushing ability. Most
QBs don’t have 1,400 rushing yards in their careers, much less in two seasons. If you’re league
is one that rewards yardage points liberally, Newton is a valuable commodity. He is expected to
make more strides as a passer, but it is his running ability that has made him a fantasy starter. If,
however, his maturation as a passer comes at the expense of his running ability, it could end up
being detrimental to fantasy owners. He has started to build a body of work that is impressive,
but he is one of the few fantasy starter types that can be viewed as a risk-reward type pick. But,
his track record can give you a pretty good indication of what to expect in 2013. STAT FACT:
In his first four games in the NFL, Newton threw for more than 370 yards in three of them. In the
28 games since, he has had just three 300-yard games and none of them have come close to the
numbers he posted in September of 2011.
4. Peyton Manning, Denver
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There were a lot of questions among fantasy owners as to whether manning would be the
Manning of old or just the old Manning as he headed west to Denver last year. After missing the
entire 2011 season after having never missed a game in his first 13th seasons, 2012 was going to
be his watershed year. All Manning did was have one of his greatest statistical seasons of his
career. His 4,659 passing yards were the second highest total of his career. Since his monster
2004 season in which he set a record with 49 TD passes, his season totals had been 28-31-31-2733-33. He was still an elite fantasy QB, but his TD numbers seemed locked at about 30. In 2012,
he threw 37 TDs – the second highest of his career. With the addition of Wes Welker to go along
with Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, Manning’s numbers could get even gaudier. In his
16th season, there is always the risk of injury because he is a glacier in the backfield (in his last
five seasons, he has rushed 100 times for just 27 yards and hasn’t scored a rushing TD in his last
57 games), but he hasn’t been sacked more than 21 times in any year in his last nine seasons. He
doesn’t take a pounding and, if he stays healthy, another big year can be expected. STAT
FACT: He found a new home in 2012 and didn’t leave the fans disappointed. In eight games at
Mile High, he threw 22 touchdowns – three in six games and two in the other two.
5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta
In his five NFL seasons, there has been a natural progression for QB Matt Ryan. When he
arrived in Atlanta in 2008, the Falcons were a run-first team and his only viable receiving option
was Roddy White. Over the last couple of seasons, however, the offense has become Ryan’s,
reverting from a Michael Turner-based offense to one of the league’s most potent passing
attacks. The Falcons have arguably the greatest Big Four in the league with Ryan, White, Julio
Jones and Tony Gonzalez all becoming fantasy studs that start nearly every week. The ceiling
just keeps getting higher for Ryan, who set career highs in 2012 for attempts (615), completions
(422), completion percentage (68.6), passing yards (4,719), passing touchdowns (32) and rushing
yards (141). With the release of Turner, the ground-and-pound Falcons offense is officially dead.
Steven Jackson is an adept receiver and the explosiveness of the Falcons offense just keeps
getting better and better for Ryan. He has become a much more of a fantasy impact player and
has reached the status of the elite. It has taken time – prior to 2011, all he had going for him his
cool Matty Ice nickname. But, heading into 2013 with Jones, White and Gonzo ready to make
another Super Bowl run, Ryan has the chance to put himself into the upper echelon of fantasy
quarterbacks and is no longer viewed as a risk-reward pick, just a reward pick. STAT FACT:
Ryan has thrown more TD passes in every year of his career (16-22-28-29-32).
6. Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Fantasy owners have yet to get it right with Stafford. Injuries plagued his first two seasons (he
missed 19 of his first 32 games), which dropped his fantasy draft stock significantly heading into
2011. He finally played all 16 games and his numbers were awesome (5,038 yards and 41
touchdowns). As a result, he was a lottery pick in the 2012 draft. But, despite playing all 16
games and still throwing for 4,967 yards (310 yards a game), his touchdown passes dropped
from 41 to 20 – due as much to the lack of a running game as anything else. The Lions were
behind often and he threw a whopping 727 passes – an eye-popping 45-pass average. While that
may seem like a good thing for fantasy owners, clearly it wasn’t. The only saving grace was that
he rushed for four TDs – one more than he had in his first three seasons combined. Will he
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bounce back? That is the critical question fantasy owners will have to deal with. He has the
ability (and a guy called Megatron at his disposal) to be drafted as a fantasy starter, but he has as
many question marks as any QB in the upper tiers of the draft. The good news is that he will be
available much later than he was in 2011 and, if he bounces back, he could be a solid value pick.
STAT FACT: Stafford’s drop in touchdown production was incredibly pronounced. In 2011, he
had no games without a TD pass and 12 games with two or more TDs, including nine with three
or more. In 2012, he had 11 games with less than two TD passes – seven with one touchdown
and four with none.
7. Tom Brady, New England
Prior to his record-setting 2007 season, Brady was one of those quarterbacks who was
consistently throwing in the high 20s for touchdowns and was viewed as a very good QB but not
one of the elite fantasy numbers guys. However, in the last three years, he has taken his game to
the next level. He has thrown 109 touchdown passes over the last three years and, in the last two,
has thrown for 10,062 yards and 73 TDs. The only question surrounding him is how often he can
lose key receivers and still post the kind of numbers that have made him an elite first-ballot Hall
of Fame quarterback. After going down in the opener of the 2008 season, he has started all 64
games he has played since and has become as consistent a fantasy quarterback as there is in the
league. Not only are his touchdown numbers impressive, but, over the last two seasons, he has
averaged 314 passing yards a game. The loss of Wes Welker is expected to damage Brady’s
numbers, but the same was said when the Patriots traded Randy Moss and Brady’s numbers have
only gotten better since. He won’t be ranked as high as guys like Aaron Rodgers or Brees, but
the production is there. STAT FACT: Typically, a quarterback’s rushing production drops as he
gets older, but not Brady. In his first 12 seasons – a total of 158 games and 156 starts – Brady
rushed for just seven touchdowns. In his last 19 games, all coming after he turned 34, he has
rushed for seven touchdowns. Update 6/26/2013: With the arrest and release of TE Aaron
Hernandez, Brady has lost nearly every key component to his receiving corps since 2012. As a
result, he slides in our latest rankings update. That said, Brady is still the same QB who won a
Super Bowl with WR David Givens and WR David Patton leading the team at WR. In other
words, all is not lost if you draft Brady in 2013.
THIRD TIER (A CLEAR STEP DOWN)
8. Robert Griffin III, Washington
RG3 was viewed by skeptics as a reach pick, especially considering the Redskins gave up three
first-round draft picks and a second-rounder to land him. But, as he led the Redskins to the
playoffs, there was little questioning the infusion of talent and enthusiasm Griffin brought to the
Redskins. His ability to throw an accurate deep ball has been an unexpected plus and he has
established himself quickly as one of the most impressive running QBs in the league – which
made Griffin a fantasy darling in his rookie season. In 15 games, he completed 65.6 percent of
his passes for a sparkling passer rating of 102.4 – throwing for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns.
But, that was only half the story. He rushed 120 times for 815 yards and seven touchdowns –
averaging eight carries and 54 yards on the ground per game. The biggest question mark on RG3
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is how healthy he will be coming off of ACL surgery suffered late in the season. If he is close to
100 percent, his numbers from 2012 may merely be the baseline for what he is capable of. He
has been cautioned to be more careful when in the open field to avoid the kind of heavy hits he
endured as a rookie but the future looks bright for RG3. While those who draft him may need to
land another top-half QB as insurance, there is little doubt that the future looks bright for Griffin
and his ceiling hasn’t been reached yet by any means. He’s something of a gamble coming off of
injury, but he’s not going to last long on draft day, especially in leagues where yardage bonuses
pile up quickly for running QBs. STAT FACT: Griffin was almost like having an extra running
back on the Redskins last year. In 15 games, he rushed for 70 or more yards six times and had
six of his top eight rushing days at home.
9. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
Replacing a legend like Peyton Manning wasn’t going to be easy, but Luck has done as well as
any rookie in such a situation. Typically, an elite quarterback is drafted to a team that doesn’t
have a solid starter in place. But, the Colts were so confident that Luck could get the job done
that they released Manning to eliminate the need for competition. Luck struggled at times, but
his rookie body of work was quite impressive, as he helped lead his team from the worst record
in the league to the playoffs in his rookie season. Luck completed 339 of 627 passes for 4,374
yards and 23 touchdowns, but, what went largely unnoticed was that he was an effective
situational runner, taking off 62 times for 255 yards and five more TDs. With a young nucleus
around him, Luck will likely be a fantasy staple for those able to carry over players for more
than one season, but it seems clear that Luck is the future of the Colts franchise and is expected
to have a decade-long career or more that Manning gave Indianapolis since before the turn of the
century. If he can come anywhere close to approaching the consistent numbers Manning posted
over the years, the Colts will be a regular in the postseason for years to come. STAT FACT: He
He wasn’t a fantasy back-breaker as a rookie, but Luck rarely left owners empty-handed. While
Luck only had one game with more than two touchdowns, he had at least one in 15 of 16 games
and, in the three games in which he didn’t have a TD pass he rushed for two touchdowns each in
two of those three games.
10. Tony Romo, Dallas
It’s hard to imagine a player as prolific as Romo being available this late, but few quarterbacks
run as hot an cold as he does. It’s hard to believe that he’s been in the NFL for a decade and has
been a starter for seven years. He has had a couple of seasons shortened by injury, but is a
consistent fantasy producer – in season-ending numbers if not on a week-to-week basis. In the
four years he has started all 16 games, he has never thrown for less than 4,184 yards and has TD
totals of 36-26-31-28 in those four seasons. He set a career high with 4,903 passing yards last
year, as well as personal highs in attempts (648) and completions (425). He has always been an
efficient passer – his 90.5 passer rating last year was respectable, but represented his career
worst, due in large part to 19 interceptions. Romo is viewed as a borderline starter, but few QBs
are capable of putting up the kind of killer yardage numbers that he can. The last thing a fantasy
owner wants to see when playing against Romo is having Dallas fall behind by a couple of
touchdowns. When that happens, the gunslinger in Romo comes out and big things follow. He is
still inconsistent a decade into his career, but anyone who can land Romo as a No. 2 quarterback
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will be giddy on draft day. STAT FACT: The easy way to determine whether or not to play him
if you need a big game is to play him at Cowboys Stadium. Six of his last nine games with three
or more touchdowns came at home, as have seven of his last nine 300-yard games. In 2012,
those numbers were even more pronounced – three of four games with 3+ TDs and six of his
eight 300-yard passing games.
11. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
The old adage that a player doesn’t lose his starting job due to injury simply isn’t true. When
Alex Smith went down at midseason, Kaepernick, who threw just five passes as a rookie,
suddenly got thrust into the starting role and came through in a big way. He not only won and
held the starting job throughout the playoffs, he showed he could be a dangerous threat with his
legs, rushing 63 times for 415 yards and five touchdowns. With Smith traded away to Kansas
City, it is now Kaepernick’s unquestioned starting position and big things are expected of him.
While his ranking is based as much on projection as it is production, Kaepernick is a player that
is going to be one that a lot of owners want to get their hands on. Is he an every-week starting
fantasy quarterback? That’s hard to say because, for all their big-play ability, the 49ers remain a
run-first team and have a strong running game to control the clock and make the most of any
lead they get along the way. Kaepernick is far from a sure thing, but his stock remains on the rise
and, if you want him on your roster, you may have to jump early to lock him down. STAT
FACT: Kaepernick didn’t have huge fantasy production in his seven starts. He only had one
game with more than two touchdowns (at New England in December when most fantasy owners
likely benched him for a better option), had 244 passing yards or less in six of his seven starts
and had more than 35 rushing in just two of his seven starts.
FOURTH TIER (GOOD FANTASY BACKUPS WITH POTENTIAL)
12. Russell Wilson, Seattle
When Wilson was drafted, he wasn’t expected to be an immediate starter. After all, the
Seahawks had signed Matt Flynn to a lucrative free agent contract and had 2011 starter Tarvaris
Jackson returning. T-Jack got the hook at the end of the preseason and Flynn was traded in the
offseason, effectively eliminating the competition for Wilson’s starting job. He started all 16
games as a rookie, completing 252 of 393 passes for 3,118 yards, 26 touchdowns and a passer
rating of 100.0. He also added 94 rushes for 489 yards and four touchdowns. With the addition
of enigmatic playmaker Percy Harvin to the mix, Wilson’s future looks as bright as it ever and,
with Seattle looking to make a Super Bowl run, Wilson suddenly looks to have the weapons he
needs to be a regular fantasy starter and a player that will be highly coveted on draft day. Like
many of the young quarterbacks in our rankings, some of his cache is based on projections,
which can at times be a dangerous way to go. There have been a lot of one-hit wonder QBs who
come off an impressive season only to fall on their face the following year and burn fantasy
owners who overspent for them. While Wilson is far from a finished product, he has seen his
competition shipped away and additions made to his arsenal of weapons, which should bode well
as he enters his second season as the unquestioned starter in Seattle. STAT FACT: Those
looking for big yardage out of Wilson are doing so on a projection basis. In 16 regular season
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starts, not only has Wilson never thrown for 300 yards in a game, he had less than 200 passing
yards in seven of those games.
13. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Manning is a classic backup fantasy QB. He has started every game since 2005, so he is a
reliable fantasy backup. His biggest issue for fantasy owners is that, while he is almost a lock to
be available to start and has a wealth of talent around him, he just doesn’t produce the kind of
big numbers that are expected. In many ways, he is the fantasy reincarnation of Troy Aikman.
He wins Super Bowls, but doesn’t help fantasy owners win championships. In three of the last
four years, he has produced approximately 4,000 passing yards, but his problem is consistently
getting the ball in the end zone. In eight seasons as a starter, his TD totals are 24-24-23-21-2731-29-26. They’re decent numbers, but, in a league that is as pass-happy as the NFL, Manning
just doesn’t put up the consistent numbers needed to be counted on as a fantasy starter. It’s not
due to a lack of trying, he has thrown 500 or more passes in seven of eight seasons and had 479
attempts in the other and has completed 315 or more in each of his last four seasons. His
numbers are always consistent, but not consistently great, which makes him an ideal fantasy
backup, but not an ideal fantasy starter. STAT FACT: Fantasy owners who draft Manning have
to realize that they’re going to have a one-dimensional QB. Almost all of Manning’s fantasy
production comes through the air. In eight years as a starter, he has never rushed for more than
80 yards in any season and has never scored more than one rushing TD in any of those years.
14. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
Dalton is quietly moving himself into the range of the next tier of quarterbacks. As a rookie in
2011, he threw for 3,398 yards with 20 TD passes, one TD run and a passer rating of 80.4. He
was a pleasant surprise, but most fantasy owners felt they needed to be shown a little more
before they would commit to him as a viable fantasy option for more than a game or two when
injuries or a bye week forced a fantasy owner’s hand. In his second season, his numbers went up
across the board. He threw for 3,669 yards with 27 touchdown passes, four touchdown runs and
a passer rating of 87.4. There were incremental improvements made at every level of his game
from completion percentage to average gain per attempt to touchdown percentage. He isn’t a
great rusher, but his touchdown production was quietly effective. He still may not be viewed as a
fantasy starter, but he is getting a lot closer and isn’t far away from being viewed as the type of
player who can be counted on to be the guy that can take it to the next level in the next couple of
years. He’s a big reason why the Bengals have made the playoffs the last two seasons and are
viewed by many as the favorite to win the AFC North crown this year. STAT FACT: Dalton
was as good as any QB in the league in terms of big-time single games. In his first 11 games, he
had three or more touchdowns in seven of them, but, in the final five games in December, he
never had more than two TDs in any game.
15. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
Freeman has shown flashes of being a big-time NFL quarterback, but his biggest problem has
been backing up one big season with another. As a rookie in 2009, he started nine of the 10
games he played, averaging about 200 yards and one touchdown a game. In his first full season
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as a starter, he responded with 3,451 yards with 25 touchdowns, just six interceptions and a
passer rating of 95.9. With fantasy owners on the bandwagon, he responded with a dismal 2001
season, throwing just 16 touchdowns with 22 interceptions and a brutal passer rating of 74.6.
With owners jumping off the bandwagon in 2012, he responded with his first 4,000-yard season
and a career-best 27 touchdowns. The arrival of Vincent Jackson made him a more viable deep
passer and there are reasons to believe that he can finally back up one big season with another.
To date, he’s been a fantasy tease. He has the ability to be a fantasy big-timer, but, until he
shows he can do it in consecutive seasons, he will likely remain being viewed as a fantasy
backup instead of an every-week starter. STAT FACT: Despite having the speed to be an
effective runner, in his three full seasons as a starter his attempts (68-55-39), yards (364-238139) and average per rush (5-4-4-3-3.6) have dropped in each season and, in four years as a
starter, he hasn’t scored a rushing TD in three of them.
16. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Big Ben has been a successful NFL QB, but takes a beating. It doesn’t always show up in his
sack numbers (his 30 sacks in 2012 were the second lowest total of his career. But, he takes a
huge pounding by extending plays and giving defenders a running shot at him. It has show up in
his stats. In nine years as a starter, he has started all 16 games just once, which is one of the
biggest reasons why he can’t be viewed as a fantasy starter. The other primary reason he isn’t
seen as a fantasy lock is because of his sporadic TD production. In nine years as a starter, his
touchdown totals have been 17-17-18-32-17-26-17-21-26. Those aren’t the kind of TD numbers
that get you into the starting lineup very often and, seeing as he had topped 4,000 yards passing –
the new benchmark for yardage success among QBs – just twice, he is a quarterback who gets
drafted more on reputation that actual production. He is an ideal No. 2 fantasy QB, but, given his
consistent injury history, which not only sees him missing games, but playing hurt as well, he is
one of those “buyer beware” types who could end up disappointing more than he ends up
carrying a team. STAT FACT: In his first seven seasons, Roethlisberger ran for 14 touchdowns,
including two each in a five-year span from 2006-10. However, whether due to his injury history
or not, that part of his game has disappeared. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in his last 29
starts over the last two-plus seasons.
17. Philip Rivers, San Diego
Rivers has been one of the most consistent fantasy players in recent years, but his production
dropped markedly – due in no small part to being sacked a career-high 49 times and fumbling 15
times, losing seven of them. That, combined with throwing 35 interceptions over the last two
seasons, has helped make Rivers far from a sure thing among fantasy owners. There is no
questioning his durability – in seven years as a starter, he has never missed a start. But, his 3,606
passing yards and 26 touchdown passes were his lowest totals since 2007 – his second season as
a starter. After averaging 8.5 yards per attempt in the previous four years, his 6.8 yard average
was among the worst among full-time starters, which speaks to him being forced to check down
and throw short passes. Without a legitimate go-to wide receiver like Vincent Jackson was for so
many years, Rivers has struggled to carry the team on his shoulders. Rivers still have the veteran
fantasy chops to be viewed as a value pick here and most fantasy owners won’t have a problem
taking him as a priority backup, but his numbers have been heading in the wrong direction and
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he no longer is a lock to be a fantasy starter for more than a handful of games in any given
season anymore. STAT FACT: Rivers can best be described as glacial in the backfield. In his
last 96 starts over six years, he has rushed just 168 times (1.75 rushes per game) for 295 yards
(3.1 yards per game) with a 1.8 yards average and just three touchdowns.
FIFTH TIER (FANTASY BACKUPS/YOUNGTERS WITH ISSUES)
18) Carson Palmer, Arizona+
It’s hard for a guy who has been in the league for a decade to be viewed as a sleeper, but
somehow Palmer still sits in that category. In the five seasons in which he has played in all 16
games, he has thrown 26 or more touchdowns in four of them and has thrown for more than
3,800 in four of them. After coming out of retirement when he was traded to the Raiders (yet
another wasted move by the Raiders, who got rid of him after paying off the Bengals with draft
picks to bring him off the couch. Last year, we brought up that, if Palmer would play the entire
season, he would put up excellent yardage numbers and decent touchdown numbers. In 15
games, he threw for 4,018 yards and 22 touchdowns – gaudy numbers considering the lack of
firepower he had surrounding him. While the Cardinals aren’t an offensive juggernaut by any
stretch of the imagination, they have Larry Fitzgerald and you can bet Palmer will be locked and
loaded on him. He is likely to go lower than where we have him ranked in many drafts, but his
track record of production is hard to deny. STAT FACT: In the 15 games he played for the
Raiders last season, he threw for 297 yards or more in eight of those games. Update 7/26:
Palmer has worked extensively with Fitzgerald this offseason and the two seem primed for a
very good season. As a result, Palmer climbs in our poll update.
19) Sam Bradford, St. Louis
When the Rams made Bradford the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, the expectation was that
he would be the face of the franchise for years to come. That hasn’t happened yet and, seeing as
thanks to the new CBA, he’s being paid more than Andrew Luck and RG3 combined, the Rams
need him to step up. His lack of success hasn’t been due to a lack of trying – he has averaged 36
attempts per game for his career. The biggest difference in Bradford has been his increased
confidence in his deep ball. His average per attempt has gone up each of his three seasons and,
armed with young talent like Tavon Austin, Chris Givens and Brian Quick, the needle is pointing
upward for Bradford, who is getting closer to being a franchise quarterback. Coming off a
career-best 3,702 yards and 21 touchdowns, he has more room to improve, but has the
confidence of Jeff Fisher and, without Steven Jackson as the true face of the franchise, it’s time
for Bradford to step up and take over the offense. STAT FACT: Bradford has discovered his
deep passing touch. In his first two seasons, he threw 947 passes, but just seven of them were
completions of 40 or more yards. In 2012, he threw 551 passes and eight of them went for
completions of 40 or more yards.
20) Michael Vick, Philadelphia
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It can be argued that no fantasy quarterback has been more overrated than Vick. In nine years as
a starter, he has never thrown for more than 21 touchdowns in a season and has topped 3,000
yards – the bare minimum acceptable for fantasy starters – just twice. Part of the problems has
been that, given his scrambling style, he can’t seem to stay healthy. After being the first overall
pick in the 2001, he has played in all 16 games just once. He has missed 39 games due to injury,
not to mention the two seasons he lost to being sent to prison on dog-fighting charges. He hasn’t
played in more than 13 games in his four years with Philadelphia. There is reason to be upbeat
given that Chip Kelly is likely to create an offense that will take the most advantage of Vick’s
skill set, but fantasy owners have to be very concerned about his lack of production and his
inability to stay healthy. Only owners looking to swing for the fence will be willing to take a
jump on Vick. Those who have invested in a star fantasy QB will be much more likely to take a
player with a track record of durability as a backup. Vick could be in line for big numbers, but,
he has some red flags – not to mention Nick Foles and Matt Barkley both breathing down his
neck. This is a make-or-break season for Vick. STAT FACT: Vick’s fantasy calling card has
always been his running ability, but, there have been marked diminishing returns. In 2010 in just
12 games, he rushed for 676 yards and nine rushing TDs. In the last two years, his rushing totals
dropped to 589 yards in 2011 and 332 yards in 2012 and he has scored just two rushing
touchdowns in the 23 games he has started in that span.
21) Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Flacco got rewarded with a huge contract after leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl
championship, but, as far as fantasy owners are concerned, he has been steady, but no great
shakes. He has started every games of his five year career and has become a consistent passer.
Over the last four years, he has posted yardage totals of 3,613-3,622-3,610-3,817 and touchdown
passing totals of 21-2-5-20-22. He had a career-best three rushing touchdowns last year, but isn’t
viewed as a running QB by any stretch. The loss of Anquan Boldin will take away one of his
security blankets, but Flacco has proved that he can be a solid backup fantasy QB, but, just as
most football analysts haven’t put Flacco into the category of the elite NFL quarterbacks, the
same is true in terms of being an elite fantasy QB. He is a solid game manager, but isn’t the kind
of guy who wins games for fantasy owners on a week-to-week basis. STAT FACT: It’s pretty
easy to know when to consider playing Flacco – when he’s at home. Eight of his nine highest
yardage games came in his eight home games. His seven worst yardage games played on the
road. Of his 25 touchdowns – 22 TD passes and three TD runs – 18 of them (15 passes and all
three runs) came at home and, in eight road games, he had just seven TD passes and no TD runs.
22) Ryan Tannehill, Miami
When the Dolphins jumped on Tannehill with the eighth pick in the 2012 draft, it was clear that
he was supposed to be the main man in the offense. However, his production was extremely
minimal, due in large part to having his top receivers being Brian Hartline and Davone Bess –
both of whom are more in the realm of No. 3 or 4 receivers, not No. 1 receivers. The arrival of
free agent big-play receiver Mike Wallace is expected to provide Tannehill with the big-play goto receiver he needs, there is a lot of room for improvement. Given that he is being tutored by his
college coach Mike Sherman, the offensive coordinator in Miami, he has a full grasp of the
Dolphins’ offense like few young QBs have because it is essentially the same offense he ran in
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college. How big a leap can he make in his second year? That’s the question fantasy owners will
have to ask themselves. He’s set the bar pretty low as a rookie, but, with more experience and
more weapons at his disposal, it would be a shock to see his touchdown number double this year
and he could push to throw for 4,000 yards. That would be an ideal scenario, but one that comes
with risk and no guarantee of future success, making him a questionable fantasy pick that can be
counted on to be inserted into a lineup with any frequency. STAT FACT: Tannehill rarely had
the “big game” that make fantasy stars. He threw for 200 or fewer yards in eight of 16 games
(with only one of more than 290 yards) and had zero or one TD pass in 13 of 16 games.
23) Matt Schaub, Houston
Health has been a big issue with Schaub, but, when you’re the quarterback on a team that is
viewed as a primary Super Bowl contender, fantasy owners have to take notice. In the three
seasons with the Texans in which he has played in all 16 games, he has thrown for more than
4,000 yards in each season and has touchdown totals of 29, 24 and 22. The lowest of those fullseason numbers came last year, when he threw for 4,008 yards and 22 TDs. If not for the
offensive makeup of the Texans, Schaub would be rated much higher and might deserve to be
bumped up a little bit depending on your scoring method. The biggest problem here is that
Schaub is the fantasy equivalent to Troy Aikman. Aikman could have been statistical games, but
the Cowboys were so effective at closing off drives near the goal line by handing the ball to
Emmitt Smith that Aikman’s TD numbers (at least in the regular season) weren’t eye-popping
because Smith would so routinely finish off drives. Arian Foster does much the same, which will
keep Schaub down on draft board, but, unlike a lot of the QBs in this area of the rankings,
Schaub has the most potential for big games. STAT FACT: One of the reason Schaub owners
were so disgusted with him was that, in 2012, in his first 12 games, he had 21 TD passes and was
on pace to finish the year with 28. In the final four games, including the fantasy playoffs, he
threw just one TD pass.
24) Jay Cutler, Chicago
There is little questioning that Cutler has the talent to be an elite NFL quarterback, but he has
never shown it. He got off to a strong start with Denver before Josh McDaniels made it clear he
wasn’t interested in Cutler and forced a trade to the Bears. Chicago has never had an elite fantasy
quarterback and, in his first season, his 27 touchdowns were indicative that things were going to
change. Since then, he hasn’t played all 16 games in any of his last three seasons and his
touchdown numbers have been pedestrian at best – 23-13-19. He isn’t a huge yardage guy
(3,274, 2,319 and 3,033 the last three years), but has as many weapons now as he ever has – the
Bears traded for Brandon Marshall, drafted Alshon Jeffery and signed TE Martellus Bennett in
free agency. The team has gone out of its way to acquire the weapons needed for the offense to
be more high powered than it has been since Cutler arrived on Lakeshore Drive. What he does
with now is up to him. The time for excuses is over. It’s time for Cutler to quit doing his Droopy
imitation on the sidelines and become the leader he should be. STAT FACT: Cutler needs to
find other options than Marshall. In their first season after being reunited, he completed 118
passes to Marshall for 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns. All of his other receivers combined
caught 137 passes for 1,525 yards and eight touchdowns.
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6TH TIER (INTERESTING THIRD OPTIONS FOR FANTASY OWNERS)
25) Matt Flynn, Oakland
Perhaps never has a player been paid so much for accomplishing so little. He spent his first four
years as the backup to Aaron Rodgers and, thanks to what he showed in two starts, it earned him
a fat free agent contract with the Seahawks. However, when Russell Wilson proved in training
camp and the preseason that he was able to handle the starting job, Flynn became an invisible
man. He only appeared in mop-up duty to take a knee at the end of games and completed five of
nine passes. With Wilson entrenched as the starter in Seattle, the Seahawks swung a trade to
send him to the Raiders, where reclamation projects have become the norm. He follows in the
footsteps of guys like Jim Plunkett, Jay Schroder, Jeff Hostetler, Jeff George, Rich Gannon,
Jason Campbell and Carson Palmer as QBs who made their bone with other teams before coming
over the Raiders. The only home-grown talent to start for Oakland in the last 20 years was
JaMarcus Russell and we all know how that turned out. Flynn thought he would find his fortunes
out west and still might, but, if it’s going to happen, it won’t be in Seattle, it will be in the Bay
Area and there are no guarantees that he will be any better than those who have preceded him in
recent years. He’s a hunch pick at best. STAT FACT: Perhaps all Flynn needs is an opportunity.
He has made only two career starts and, in those, he has completed 55 of 81 passes for 731 yards
and nine touchdowns. While an impossible streak to maintain, if extrapolated over a full season,
those numbers would translate to 5,848 yards and 72 touchdowns.
26) Jake Locker, Tennessee
After playing caddy his rookie season behind veteran Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans made the
move at the start of the 2012 season to turn the offense over to Locker. He didn’t set the world
on fire – throwing for 2,176 yards with 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 11 games – but he
did show promise for the future. The Titans have a young crew of receivers around him that
could help hasten his maturation process and the coaching staff has supreme confidence in
Locker, although the team did sign Ryan Fitzpatrick to be a veteran security blanket should
Locker struggle this season. One of his quietly impressive talents is his running ability. In
limited duty, he ran 41 times for 291 yards (a 7.1 yard average) and one touchdown, which
should bode well for the future. He finds himself in a put up-or-shut up type season and needs to
come up big to make the Titans glad they used the 10th pick in the 2011 draft to take him. If he
fails this time, it may be the last straw, so there is no questioning his motivation for improving.
He’s a dice roll for fantasy owners, but any QB with his career on the line is one that is worth
looking at because millions of dollars are potentially at stake and that is a prime source of
motivation to be all he can be. STAT FACT: In the 10 games Locker started and finished, he
threw at least one touchdown in eight of those games. In the two games he didn’t, Tennessee
won both games.
27) Christian Ponder, Minnesota
Ponder was drafted to be the quarterback of the future in 2011, but, when Donovan McNabb
proved to be pudgy and past his prime, the future became the present. As a rookie, he started 10
games, throwing for 1,853 yards with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In 2012, his numbers
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improved across the board, but were still pretty mediocre – 2,935 yards, 18 TDs passes, 12
interceptions and two touchdown runs. He led Minnesota to the playoffs and bigger things are
expected from him. While he lost disgruntled receiver Percy Harvin, he added veteran Greg
Jennings and Minnesota drafted Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round of the 2013 draft. That,
combined with re-signing Jerome Simpson and the emergence of Jarius Wright as a slot receiver
and Kyle Rudolph as an emerging tight end, there is reason to believe that Ponder won’t simply
be the guy who takes snaps, turns around and hands the ball off to the best running back on the
planet. He is far from a lock for fantasy success, but Matt Cassel isn’t viewed as a challenge to
his starting spot barring injury and the front office has a world of confidence in him developing
into more than simply a game manager. He may enjoy real-world NFL success, but likely isn’t
going to get many fantasy owners to jump up to grab him higher than where we have him
ranked. STAT FACT: Ponder has yet to show he can pay off owners with passing yardage. Of
his 26 career starts, Ponder has thrown for less than 200 yards in 16 of them and 120 yards or
less in 11 of them.
28) Alex Smith, Kansas City
Smith has been a classic underachiever since being the first overall pick of the 2005 draft. He has
gone through almost as many offensive coordinators as he has seasons in the league and this year
will be no different. His has been a career denied. He has started all 16 games just twice in his
career and has never thrown more than 18 touchdowns in any season. The sad part for Smith was
that he was having a career year when he got hurt last year and was replaced (permanently) by
Colin Kaepernick. In 10 games (nine starts), he completed more than 70 percent of his passes
and had his highest average per pass (8.0 yards) and his best passer rating by far (104.1). He
comes to a passer-friendly system with Andy Reid and may finally get the chance to be a fixture
at QB. Unlike most of the other quarterbacks in this tier of rankings, Smith isn’t facing a
legitimate challenge to his starting job. In eight years, he has never been a viable fantasy
quarterback, but he has never had the opportunity he currently has with the Chiefs. He may never
be worthy of the first overall pick, but the deck would appear to be stacked in his favor to rise
and fall on his own merits. STAT FACT: In his first six seasons, Smith threw 1,514 passes – 51
of them for touchdowns and 53 of them for interceptions. In the last two years, he has thrown
663 passes with 30 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions.
29) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland
When the Browns drafted Weeden, they knew what they were getting – a player who will turn 30
this October and will be viewed as an aging veteran from the get-go. He was handed the starting
job last year and started 15 games, completing 297 of 517 passes for 3,385 yards with 14
touchdowns and 17 interceptions. The Browns have outwardly expressed confidence in him,
which they backed up by not drafting another QB in the first round for a second straight year –
which would be an organizational admission of failure. But, they did sign veteran free agent
Jason Campbell on the promise that he will be given a legitimate shot at winning the starting job.
Weeden doesn’t appear to be a long-term answer – age or no age – but they have surrounded him
with some solid receivers and have given him the best opportunity to succeed. If he doesn’t do it
this year, the Browns will be able to justify going out in the draft or free agency to bring in a
replacement. The organization swung and missed on Brady Quinn and they’re holding out hope
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that Weeden won’t follow that same career path, but it would appear that the cards are stacked
against him. STAT FACT: Weeden didn’t excite the home fans all that much, which doesn’t
help his case. Of the five games in which he threw two touchdowns, four of them were on the
road. In the five games he threw no touchdowns, four of them were home games.
30) Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
Dirty Sanchez has been the bane of Jets fans for the last two years. It could be argued that the
success in his first two seasons was the result of the rest of the team and not Sanchez himself. He
has started 62 of 64 games in his first four seasons, but has yet to turn the corner, which is why
the Jets drafted Geno Smith as immediate competition and potentially as his replacement. It
would seem the locker room is already divided and, after he had an impressive 26 touchdown
passes and six TD runs in 2011, his numbers regressed badly in 2012 – 13 touchdowns, 18
interceptions and no TD runs in 15 starts. He is another player whose career as a starter is at a
crossroads and the clock is ticking – and not in a good way. Smith could end up beating him out
in training camp or the preseason, but, even if Sanchez wins the starting job, odds are he will be
looking over his shoulder, which is never good for a fantasy quarterback. It appears like Sanchez
is in a no-win situation with the Jets, which apparently has players anonymously coming out of
the woodwork to say how little confidence they have in him. If he struggles, whether for a
quarter or a game, the call will come out from the fan base to replace him. If Rex Ryan is
worried about his job, it won’t take long for the leash to snap tight and pull him off the field.
STAT FACT: In four years as a starter – a span of 62 games – Sanchez has thrown more
interceptions (69) than touchdown passes (68).
31) Chad Henne, Jacksonville
Henne was thought to be the answer in Miami when he took over the starting job in 2009, but, it
has never worked out for him in terms of being a consistent starter who produced the kind of
fantasy numbers that got owners interested or enough production that got his own teams
interested. For his career, he has thrown more interceptions (48) than touchdowns (42) and has
never had more than 15 TDs in a season despite starting 13 games in 2009 and 14 games in
2010. He was the odd man out when the Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill in the first round of
the draft and he was sent packing. He came to a Jacksonville team that had problems of its own
with Blaine Gabbert. Henne started the final six games of the season and provided the Jaguars
offense with a much needed spark. In the final seven games of the season, he threw for 1,869
yards and 10 touchdowns, the best stretch of his professional career. Although Gabbert is going
to be given one last chance to be the main man, many believe the best option all the way around
will be Henne and the Jaguars won’t just give him lip-service about being in competition for the
starting job. STAT FACT: In 37 career starts, he has thrown 36 touchdowns and has never
averaged more than one touchdown pass a game in any of the four seasons as a full- or part-time
starter.
32) E.J. Manuel, Buffalo ®
In a year when quarterbacks weren’t part of the annual draft feeding frenzy, the Bills were the
only team to jump on the bandwagon by taking Manuel in the middle of the first round. The Bills
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had enough confidence in Manuel’s ability to make the transition that they released incumbent
starter Ryan Fitzpatrick and, after re-signing Tarvaris Jackson prior to the draft, released him and
ate a $500,000 signing bonus. However, that doesn’t mean that Manuel will simply be handed
the job. When Kevin Kolb was cut loose in Arizona, they signed him as well and it appears the
Kolb will likely have the edge to be the starter in Week 1 because of his experience reading NFL
defenses. But, as we have seen in recent years with rookie quarterbacks, whether they are nobrainers like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III to first-rounders with potential like Blaine
Gabbert, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder to non-first-rounders like Russell Wilson and Colin
Kaepernick, young quarterbacks don’t sit long is almost any system around the NFL. Unless
you’re a complete bust, you get your opportunity sooner than later. Manuel may not be the
starter in Week 1, but, unless Kolb sets the world on fire, he will likely be handed the job by
November or December with the anticipation that he will be the starter for years to come.
33) Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville
There were a lot of people who questioned Sunshine’s toughness and, two years into his NFL
career, nothing has changed. In his rookie season, he was thrown to the wolves immediately,
starting 14 of the 15 games he played and throwing for just 2,214 yards with 12 touchdowns and
11 interceptions – posting a dismal passer rating of 65.4. While his numbers improved modestly
in 2012, in 10 games, Gabbert was little better – throwing for just 1,662 yards with nine
touchdowns and six interceptions with a passer rating of 77.4. When Chad Henne took over in
the 11th game of the season, he posted much better numbers and finished out the season. He is
expected to be given a legitimate chance to compete for the position, but given the investment
the Jaguars have made in Gabbert, it is expected that he will be getting one more shot at winning
and maintaining the starting job. Anyone who has seen Gabbert play know that he’s an iffy
quarterback at best and bordering on a wasted draft pick just two years after he was selected.
With a new coaching staff in place, both Gabbert and Henne will have the opportunity to start
and both will have a clean slate with Gus Bradley and his staff. The Jaguars fan base may have
seen enough of Gabbert, but Bradley will likely make the final call on whether he remains on the
roster or is viewed as a failure and is eventually cut loose – a position no third-year QB wants to
face. STAT FACT: Gabbert has been the equivalent to fantasy poison. In 24 career starts, he has
thrown for less than 200 yards in 17 of them and has one TD or less in 20 of them.
34) Kevin Kolb, Buffalo
Kolb is classic example of a player who looked good as a backup and was elevated to a starting
job and never lived up to the hype. Kolb began his career in Philadelphia as the backup to
Michael Vick and got his chance to shine when the oft-injured Vick was sidelined – starting two
games in 2009 and five games in 2010. His prowess as a backup combined with the expensive
contract Vick had signed, Kolb had more value in trade than as a backup. Arizona, which had
been seeking a quarterback that could help fans forget Kurt Warner (something that has yet to
come close to being done), stepped up and traded a second-round draft pick in the 2011 draft to
obtain Kolb. Expectations were high, but the results weren’t. He missed 17 of 32 games over two
years and, in the 15 games he played, he threw for 3,124 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11
interceptions. When the QB carousel began this offseason – where Matt Flynn went to Oakland,
Alex Smith went to Kansas City, Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Tennessee and Carson Palmer went to
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Arizona, Kolb became expendable and signed on with the Bills. He is expected to have the best
chance to start immediately in Buffalo, but, when a team uses a first-round draft pick on a
quarterback, there is precious little in the way of job security. Kolb will be at a crossroads in his
career and will need to come up big in order to keep from having his career derailed. Any time a
QB plays for three teams in four seasons, his NFL life expectancy is precariously low. STAT
FACT: Despite being a name that many fantasy fans are familiar with, in six NFL seasons, Kolb
has never played 10 games in any season and has played in six or fewer games in four of those
six years.
35) Geno Smith, New York Jets ®
It would seem that the Jets have done everything possible to find someone to replace Mark
Sanchez. They thought Tim Tebow might be the guy, but he was a horrible fit in the Jets offense
and didn’t last. The team signed David Garrard in the offseason, but injuries took such a toll that
he walked away from the game before he ever played a down in the preseason. The Jets didn’t
break the bank to sign Smith, who was one of the hot names coming into the draft process, but
didn’t come off the board until the second round – as the third pick of the draft by the Jets. Smith
has a strong arm and throws well on the move, something that is inherent with the Jets offense.
He is going to be the most popular player on the team because so many fans (and some players)
can’t stand Sanchez and think he is wasting time in the starting lineup. The pressure on Sanchez
is going to be so intense that, if he throws an incompletion on any third down, the crowd will be
deafening with boos. Whether Smith can be the man is far from a certainty, but, as far as backup
quarterbacks go, he has about as good a chance to make his way into the lineup without an injury
being involved as just about any QB in the league, which gives him some upside value for
owners with at least one stud QB already in their stable.
~ end ~
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2013 RB Rankings Analysis
2013 RB Player Rankings Analysis
POSITION ANALYSIS - From the time fantasy football first started being played nationwide
in the mid-1980s, running backs were the measuring stick for success. Almost every team had a
bell cow featured back that carried the mail. If a team had a running back by committee, it was
viewed as an offensive failure. Quarterbacks and wide receivers were critical to fantasy success,
but, if you didn’t have a stud running back or two, you were dead in the fantasy water. Running
backs were so dominant that the PPR format came into play to increase the value of wide
receivers, tight ends and running backs that were receiving threats.
In the process, the running back has been devalued both in fantasy terms and in realistic
NFL terms. RBs are no longer locks to go in the first round of the NFL draft and, while they still
are heavily drafted in the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts, they aren’t a lock like they used
to be. A case can be made that the first 10 picks of 2013 fantasy drafts may include only two or
three running backs. Adrian Peterson should be a favorite to be the first pick and Arian Foster
won’t last long, but with quarterbacks and elite wide receivers making their move up draft
boards given the pass-happy nature of the modern NFL, the running back is paying the price.
Tiering Analysis: Although the STUD RB Theory is pretty much history, there remains a group
of NFL teams that ride their lead back nearly into the ground. It is these players that comprise
our top Tiers at the RB position. At the top, you'll find an elite three-some. Minnesota Vikings
RB Adrian Peterson, Houston Texans RB Arian Foster, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug
Martin showed they can carry a fantasy team like no other, and that should remain the case in
2013 provided their health holds up. As for Tier #2, things are more settled this summer than
last for this fairly small group. Cleveland Browns RB Trent Richardson has the talent, but
injuries have plagued his short NFL career. No such concern for Baltimore Ravens RB Ray
Rice, Buffalo Bills RB C.J. Spiller, and Seattle Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch. As for
Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, he's healthy and should see an increase in passing
target with new HC Andy Reid in town. Then there is Tier #3. More questions surround this
group, but all have the talent to be a top 8 STUD RB in 2013. Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte
expects to see more passing targets himself. Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy may
appear likely to catch less, but remains a serious threat for big games. Washington Redskins RB
Alfred Morris doesn't catch many passes, but is a bull with the football, especially near the goal.
The two big injury concerns from this Tier are Dallas Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray and
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew, both whom have missed significant time due to
legt and foot injuries. After this tier, there is a significant drop down to Tier #4. This group
consists of a young second-year RB and six veteran backs. We like RB Steven Jackson from
this group due to his talent, determination, and pass-catching abilities, but he is turning 30-years
old this season. The 5th Tier is led by New England Patriots RB Stevan Ridley. The only
reason he's not a Tier higher is due to the fact he doesn't catch passes. That said, he is seemingly
a lock for double-digit scores in 2013. There will be plenty of movement in our rankings this
summer within this tier, as certain players like RB Daryl Richardson, RB David Wilson, RB
Lamar Miller, RB Eddie Lacy, RB Montee Ball, and RB Andre Brown possibly move up or
down their team depth chart at this position. The 6th Tier is an interesting group. It features
young players looking to make their mark and veterans looking to rebound off disappointing
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seasons or hang on as they get older. My favorite player in this Tier is New Orleans Saints RB
Mark Ingram. The former Crimson Tider is finally fully healthy and ready to contribute in a
meaningful manner, especially at the goal. Tier #7 RBs should be drafted strictly for depth as a
#5+ fantasy RB. This group features high risk possible NFL starting backs (i.e. RB Isaiah Pead,
RB Jonathan Franklin…), but many issues cloud the futures of these players. Others in this
Tier include fantasy producing FBs and other part time players and rookies. A few players in
this group could exceed expectations, but they are long-shots to do so. Training camp and preseason will go a long way to further define the role of these players.
RB Draft Tips - The top 2 Tiers are going in the first nine picks of most drafts, with the order
being different here and there. Bottom Line: If you draft in the top eight, you really should take
one of these backs (assuming your QBs don’t get 6 points per TD pass). After the top 8 RBs are
gone, Tier #3 is next in line. In most leagues, the top 11 RBs ranked in our list will go within the
first 19 picks. After taking a RB first, it’s best to take a top four WR if one is available, then take
your #2 RB in the 3rd or 4th round. After the top 11 RBs, there are too many questions to avoid
taking a top wideout. Still, you want to ensure you get two top 4 Tier RBs if at all possible. If
you can manage to grab a top 22 RB as your #3 RB, you are way ahead of the game. Otherwise,
a 5th Tier RB will do nicely. You do not want to wait until you are forced to choose from the 6th
Tier or lower for your #3 RB. In the FF Index Magazine Mock Draft my first four picks from the
#2 slot in a 12-team draft were RB Adrian Peterson, WR Andre Johnson, RB Maurice JonesDrew and WR Marques Colston. I then grabbed RB Mikel Leshoure near the end of the 8th
round. Bottom Line: RBs still remain the foundation of your team (outside of 6-point QB
passing leagues).
THE MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: If you draft in the first 10 positions, then you must try to
take a top eight ranked RB or WR Calvin Johnson (no sooner than pick #4). If you take Johnson,
you would be wise to take the best available RB with your second pick. If you are in a QBheavy scoring league, you'll want a top Tier QB and two top four Tier RBs on your team after
four rounds if possible. Taking a third RB in round #7-#8 is a good idea provided he's no lower
than a Tier #5 RB. An example of a good STUD RB Theory balanced starting unit for a PPR
league is QB Tony Romo, RB Arian Foster, RB Chris Johnson, RB Eddie Lacy, WR Andre
Johnson, WR Marques Colston, WR Steve Smith, and TE Jason Witten.
The following rankings are based upon PPR (point-per-reception) leagues!
FIRST TIER (THE ELITE STUD RBs)
1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
When Peterson tore three knee ligaments in December 2011 at FedEx Field, the conventional
wisdom was that his future in the NFL was cloudy at best. His fantasy stock took a significant hit
and few believed him when he said he would be back for Week 1. All he did was rush for 2,097
yards – an amazing feat considering that he was on a pitch count for touches the first four games
of the year. Proving to be a medical marvel, Peterson never let up and shattered his career high
for yardage by more than 300 yards, catching the second most passes of his career (40), posting
his best average per rush (6.0) of his career and scoring 13 touchdowns for the third straight
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year. With promises being made that he can rush for 2,500 yards this season – a lofty goal that
can’t be met – his training during his rehab has kicked it up a notch higher for the NFL’s most
talented running back. If there is such a thing as a money player, it’s Peterson. He has never
rushed for less than 1,300 yards in any full season and his touchdown totals have been
consistently gaudy – 13-10-18-13-13-13. In previous years, there has been an argument over
who is the No. 1 fantasy running back. There is no more argument. It’s All Day. STAT FACT:
From November 2009 to October 2012, Peterson had nine 100-yard rushing games in 40 starts.
In his final 10 starts of 2012, he topped 100 yards nine times.
2) Arian Foster, Houston
If there is anyone who can make an argument about whether or not Peterson is the clear-cut No.
1 overall pick, it’s Foster. In three years as a starter, in 45 games, he has 4,264 yards, caught 159
passes for 1,438 yards and scored a whopping 47 touchdowns. In short, he is money. His
workload has been intense – he has averaged more than 21 carries a game during his career.
While not a home run hitter – he hasn’t had a carry of more than 46 yards in his last 700 carries –
he is a stud on the highest order. Few teams run their offenses through a running back, but Foster
is one of them. However, there are minimal concerns that his workload has taken away some of
his explosiveness. His average per carry has dropped in each of his three years as a starter (4.94.4-4-1) and, after averaging more than 10 yards per reception in his first two seasons, he
averaged just 5.4 yards per catch last year. His reception numbers have dropped in each of the
last three seasons (66-53-40), but that’s like saying Eric Dickerson’s production went down
following his 2,100-yard rushing season. The Texans have one of the league’s best run-blocking
offensive lines and, if he’s healthy, there’s no reason not to believe that Foster can again rush for
1,400 yards, catch 40-50 passes and scored 16 or more touchdowns. Foster is a throwback style
workhorse at a position where specialization and two-man backfields are the norm. He is a stud
running back in the truest sense of the word and should be the second RB off the board in every
draft in the country – and first in drafts conducted in Texas. STAT FACT: In 43 career starts,
Foster has run 20 or more times in 24 of those games – redefining the bell-cow running back.
3) Doug Martin, Tampa Bay
When the Bucs traded back into the end of the first round to draft Martin, it was clear they had
plans for him. However, few could have imagined that the Muscle Hamster would become such
a critical piece of the Tampa Bay offense so soon. He started all 16 games, rushing 319 times for
1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 49 passes for 472 yards and another TD. As would
be expected with a rookie, there was a lot of all-or-nothing to Martin’s game. He had five games
with more than 125 rushing yards, but also had five games with 56 or less yards. In the eight
games he had 20 or more carries, the Bucs had a 5-3 record. In the eight games he didn’t carry
20 times, Tampa Bay had a record of 2-6. Numbers like that won’t be lost of Greg Schiano.
When the Bucs went on a tear in late-October into November, it wasn’t a coincidence that
Martin was putting up his best numbers. While the Bucs have made some improvements to their
roster, the sky is the limit for Martin and the big days will likely keep on coming. In his first five
games, he had just one TD and no 100-yard games. In his final 11 games, he scored 11 TDs and
topped 100 yards five times – a sign of things to come. STAT FACT: Martin was more of a road
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warrior than delighting the home fans – four of his five 100-yard rushing games and eight of his
12 touchdowns came away from Tampa Bay.
SECOND TIER (VERY CLOSE TO ELITE STUD RBs)
4) Ray Rice, Baltimore
Few fantasy running backs have been as consistent as Rice. In four years as a starter, he hasn’t
missed a game and has averaged 1,250 yards rushing, 70 receptions and 10 touchdowns – the
prototype numbers one expects from a fantasy back. There may be some concerns that he has
peaked in his performance – his 1,143 rushing yards and 478 receiving yards in 2012 both
represented his career lows since becoming a full-time starter, but both are impressive numbers
when compared to other backs around the league. The concern when he became the Ravens’
featured back was that he didn’t have the size to hold up, but the numbers speak louder than
anything else. He doesn’t miss games. He plays hurt. He is effective and has game-breaking
ability – although 2012 was the first season of his career in which he didn’t have a play of 50 or
more yards. While Joe Flacco is now being touted as an emerging QB, the Ravens offense still
starts around Rice – both as a runner and receiver. His numbers may have dipped in 2012, but he
remains an elite fantasy back whose consistency as a rusher, receiver and scorer are hard to
argue. STAT FACT: Rice enjoyed his home cooking when it came to getting into the end zone
in 2012. In eight road games, he scored just two touchdowns. In eight home games, he scored
eight TDs.
5) Jamaal Charles, Kansas City+
Charles is one of those running backs that can infuriate fantasy owners. He has as much pure
breakaway speed as any running back in the NFL, but has been absent from the scoring column.
In his last two full seasons, he has rushed for 2,976 yards and caught 80 passes. But, he has yet
to become an elite scorer or a big-time receiving option. In three full seasons in which he was a
primary option, his touchdown totals were eight, eight and six. Even in PPR leagues, those
missing handful of touchdowns are what keeps him from being an elite must-have fantasy starter.
However, the arrival of Andy Reid could make a change to that. Reid has always been in love
with speed backs who can make plays in the open field (see Brian Westbrook and Shady
McCoy) and it can be argued that Charles has more explosiveness than either of those other two.
In 2012 alone, he had three touchdown runs of 80 yards or more. Charles is a big play waiting to
happen and those who have owned him over the years know the drill – you keep him in the
lineup because he is capable of huge games, but realize you will be frustrated when he gets
completely shut down, which happens a little too often for some owners to tolerate. The arrival
of Reid may be the best thing for him because, if his past history means anything, he loves a
three-down running back – which could bump Charles’ receiving numbers and make him a more
consistent fantasy threat. STAT FACT: If Reid follows his gut (a big hunch), he will give
Charles the ball more than 15 times. In the 10 games in which he had 15 or more carries, his
rushing totals were 87-233-88-140-100-87-107-127-165-226. In the six games he didn’t get 15
handoffs, his rushing totals were 3-40-4-39-10-53. Memo to Andy: Give the man the damn ball
and don’t give up on him early. Update 7/26: The buzz has Charles catching more than 60
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passes in 2013, as the team concentrates early camp work in the passing game. As a result, he
climbs in Tier #2.
6) Trent Richardson, Cleveland
The Browns traded up to make sure they could draft Richardson, but few running backs faced
eight in the box more because Cleveland simply didn’t have enough other offensive options to
take the heat off of him. His numbers bore that out. In 15 games as a rookie before being shut
down in Week 17, he had 267 carries for 950 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 51 passes for
367 yards and another TD. However, because he was such a focus of opposing defenses, he
averaged just 3.6 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per reception and didn’t have a play of longer than
32 yards in 318 touches. He made the most of his opportunities, but, showed the signs of the
beatings he took as time went on. He was impressive both on the road and at home – splitting his
12 touchdowns between home and road, as well as splitting his top six rushing games between
home and road. Even with his struggles, he put up excellent fantasy numbers, including five TDs
in December when fantasy owners needed them most. He still needs more help to be an elite
fantasy back, but he’s well on his way. STAT FACT: Richardson left owners hanging too often
when it came to yardage numbers. He had less than 50 yards rushing in seven of his 15 games as
a rookie.
7) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo
After being taken in the first round of the 2010 draft, it seemed as though Spiller would always
be stuck in a time share with Fred Jackson. But, as time has gone by, his numbers have
consistently increased in terms of rushes (74-107-207), rushing yards (283-561-1,244), average
per rush (3.8-5.2-6.0), rushing TDs (0-4-6), receptions (24-39-43) and receiving yards (157-269459). When given his opportunity last year, he showed why the Bills envisioned him as a go-to
running back and, despite not having many touches – just 388 rushing attempts in 46 career
games – he has proved to be a dynamic threat that could be an elite running back if given more
opportunities. Few players have the arrow pointing up as high as Spiller. If Buffalo understands
that he has the potential to score every time he touches the ball while Jackson has the ability to
move the chains, he could become an elite fantasy back. He is laying the foundation for that with
his steadily increasing numbers, but will likely need to show he can be a 15-20 carry-a-game guy
before a lot of owners will commit to make him their No. 1 RB on a permanent basis. STAT
FACT: Does the end of the season speak to Spiller’s future with Buffalo? In 2012, he had just
four games with more than 15 rushing attempts, but three of those came in his final three games
last year – in which he rushed 63 times for 300 yards and scored two TDs.
8) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
When Lynch is in Beast Mode, there are few better. After three years-plus with the Buffalo Bills,
he has a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons and was a solid fantasy player – if not a lock to be a
No. 1 type guy. Injuries have always been a concern, despite never missing more than three
games in any season. While his role with the Bills consistently diminished, once he got to
Seattle, it has been a different story. Not only did his carries increase in each of his three years
(165-285-315), so did his rushing yardage (573-1,204-1,590) and his average per rushing attempt
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(3.5-4.2-5.0). He saved his best for last (year) when he set career highs for attempts, yards and
average. In PPR formats, his only downfall is that he won’t get the kind of points for receptions
that others will – his yearly total for receptions with Seattle is 21-28-23 and he has never had
more than 300 receiving yards in any of his six NFL seasons. But, if you’re looking for a
consistent bell-cow who is won’t have as much pressure on him with the arrival of Percy Harvin
taking a linebacker off the field for most plays, Lynch could be in full Beast Mode again this
season. STAT FACT: In his first four seasons – a span of 57 games with Buffalo and Seattle –
Lynch scored 24 touchdowns. In his two full seasons with the Seahawks – a total of 31 games –
he has scored 25 touchdowns, not to mention his two best single-season rushing totals.
THIRD TIER (SOLID #1 FANTASY RBs)
9) Matt Forte, Chicago
Forte has been a fantasy anomaly since joining the league in 2008. He burst on the scene as a
rookie, rushing for 1,238 yards, catching 63 passes and scoring 12 touchdowns. He was on the
fast track to fantasy superstardom, but, four years later, those numbers all remain as his career
highs. Over the last four seasons, he has missed five games due to injury, but hasn’t topped 1,100
yards in any of those four years and has touchdown totals of 4-9-4-6 during that span. His
reception numbers have remained consistent (57-51-52-44), as has his rushing average the last
three years (4.5-4.9-4.4), but he hasn’t been the big-time dual threat that his rookie season led so
many to indicate was coming. He isn’t going to get the touches many of the other top backs will
get – he hasn’t had more than 300 combined touches in any of the last three years after having
373 touches as a rookie. He is still a dangerous threat, but is no longer a weekly lock to be in a
fantasy starting lineup every week. He’s not putting together a Hall of Fame resume, more like a
Hall of Very Good. For those who wait on running back at the start of the draft, he will end up
being someone’s No. 1 RB, but he will be a pretty big question mark to be a game-breaker who
is capable of singlehandedly winning a week or two for a fantasy owner. STAT FACT: If you’re
considering when to bench Forte, it should be when he is away from Soldier Field. In the last
two years, he has scored seven of his 10 TDs at home and has just three touchdowns in his last
16 road games dating back to 2010.
10) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
Perhaps never in the history of fantasy football has a player made such a meteoric rise only to
fall as hard as McCoy did last year. In his first season as a starter in 2010, McCoy ran for 1,080
yards on just 207 carries, caught 78 passes and scored nine touchdowns. That got the attention of
fantasy owners and they were rewarded handsomely in 2011, as he rushed 273 times for 1,309
yards, caught 48 passes and scored a whopping 20 touchdowns – making him a candidate for
fantasy MVP in many leagues. He was so money that some had him rated along with Arian
Foster as the top-rated running back on draft boards. But, injuries and offensive ineffectiveness
combined to kill his 2012 season and make him a fantasy liability. In 12 games, he rushed 200
times for 840 yards, caught 54 passes for 373 yards and had more touchdowns receiving (3) than
he did rushing (2). The Eagles have a new high-octane look with the arrival of new head coach
Chip Kelly, which should bode well for Slim Shady getting back into the fantasy driver’s seat,
but injuries will always be a concern. He hasn’t played all 16 games in his three years as a starter
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and missed four games last year and didn’t have the same level of explosion that he had shown
the previous year. Taken as high as No. 2 overall last year, in some leagues, he may end up being
the No. 2 running back on a fantasy roster this year. He has a ton of upside behind him, but he is
far from a certainty. STAT FACT: What made McCoy so valuable in 2011 was his consistency.
In 15 games, he rushed for more than 100 yards six teams and scored at least one TD in a
whopping 13 games. It was that success that made his 2012 so disappointing – 12 games, three
100-yard games and just four games with a touchdown. If he can find a happy medium
somewhere in between, he will be a solid fantasy back.
11) DeMarco Murray, Dallas+
Murray is an immensely talented player, but his injury history dating back to high school is
somewhat troubling. He fell a bit on Draft Weekend 2011 for just that reason, but those fears
seemed justified. He was on his way to having a big season – in 13 games, he rushed 164 times
for 897 yards and caught 26 passes – but injuries slowed him down on almost a weekly basis.
Last year, he was expected to have his breakout season, but played in just 10 games, carrying
161 times for 663 yards – a drop in average per carry from 5.5 yards a pop to 4.1. There is no
questioning his big-play ability, but it has yet to manifest itself. In 386 career touches (325
carries, 61 receptions), he has scored just six touchdowns. He is one of those players who owners
don’t draft twice because he causes too much frustration. He has the ability and the speed to be a
breakout player if he can stay healthy, but analysts have been saying the same thing about him
since he was a freshman at Oklahoma in the post-Adrian Peterson era. He’s always been a boombust prospect, but there has been a lot more bust than there has been boom. STAT FACT: If
you’re looking for the key of when to play Murray and when to sit him, the key may be to play
him when the Cowboys are at home. In 11 career road games, he has scored just one touchdown.
Update 7/26: Murray enters camp healthy and the Cowboys plan to run more in 2013, as he
climbs a tad in our update this week.
12) Alfred Morris, Washington
Morris is the latest in a long list of running backs that Mike Shanahan has fallen in love with.
Last year there were questions coming into the season as to who would be the main man. There
were several candidates, but the only apparent certainty was that one of them was going to be a
fantasy star. Sixth-round rookie Morris was a logical candidate given Shanahan’s willingness to
give unproven late-round rookies a chance and the result was nothing short of incredible. Morris
started all 16 games, rushing 335 times for 1,613 yards and 13 touchdowns. If he had a drawback
it was that he was Michael Turner-esque in his lack of receiving acumen. He caught just 11
passes for 70 yards and those were just dump-off passes to avoid QB sacks. With RG3 expected
to lead a high-octane passing offense, Morris is the safe play. He will be facing a challenge this
year, but it’s hard to tell who that will come from. As things currently stand, we don’t have
another Redskins running back in our rankings, but Shanahan is never one to stick with the same
RB for very long. He always falls in love with the next big thing and, while Morris may appear a
bit underrated at this ranking, it’s happened before, so be forewarned. STAT FACT: While RG3
got most of the headlines, it was Morris who was the key to victory for Washington of the 2012
rookie class. In the 10 games in which he had 20 or more carries, Washington had a 9-1 record.
In the six games he had less than 20 carries, the Redskins went 1-5. Shanahan is aware of this
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number – in their seven-game winning streak to end the season, Morris had 20 or more carries in
every game.
13) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
MJD has been one of the most impressive fantasy backs in the NFL since joining the league in
2006. In his first six seasons, Jones-Drew only missed three games to injury and had touchdown
totals of an impressive 15-9-14-16-7-11. When he became a full-time starter in 2009 when the
team send Fred Taylor packing, some questioned whether he could hold up under the straing
since, he hadn’t carried a full-time workload in his first three seasons, despite scoring 38
touchdowns as a part-time player. He responded with three seasons with rushing totals of 1,3911,324-1,606. Everything was looking up for MJD until he started grousing about his contract. He
sat out the OTAs, training camp and the preseason – not returning to the team until the days
before the start of the regular season. He simply wasn’t the same player. In six games, he rushed
just 86 times, caught just 14 passes and scored just two touchdowns. Can he rebound from his
sub-par, injury-plagued 2012 season or have we seen the best of MJD in the rearview mirror?
That’s the question fantasy owners will have to ask themselves and deal with. The Jaguars have
added some offensive weapons to the arsenal to take the heat off of him, but he will be a player
who will be drafted to start every week and there are some lingering doubts that he has the
offense around him to get it done. STAT FACT: In his first four seasons – just one as a starter –
MJD scored 54 touchdowns. In his last three seasons – all as a starter – he had scored 20
touchdowns.
FOURTH TIER (TOP 12 POTENTIAL)
14) Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Johnson has been a fantasy enigma since joining the NFL and promising to become the most
complete running back in the NFL. Whether you like him or not, the fact remains that he has
missed just one game in his five-year career and that was as a rookie. His seasonal rushing totals
have been impressive – 1,228-2,006-1,364-1,047-1,243 – and he is one of the most explosive
running backs in the game. The biggest issue for fantasy owners has been his propensity to be an
all-or-nothing type of running back. He will have one game where he looks almost unstoppable
and back it up with a 12-carry, 25-yard game. With the exception of 2009, that has been part of
his calling card. He is worthy of being a No. 1 fantasy running back because he can be dangerous
as a receiver – he has yearly totals of 43-50-44-57-36. But, his up and down week-to-week
numbers are what have frustrated so many fantasy owners. At this point of the rankings, he could
be a value pick because, if nothing else, his season-long numbers bear that out. He will have
enough big weeks to win the person who drafts a couple of games all by himself. If his O-line
stays healthy, he could be a steal at this point, but, those who have owned him in the past are
aware of his roller coaster of production. STAT FACT: In his first three seasons (47 games), he
scored 38 touchdowns. In his last two seasons (32 games) he has just 10 TDs.
15) Darren Sproles, New Orleans
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Sproles is a player whose value is dependent on how your league does its scoring. If you don’t
play in a PPR league, Sproles value drops like a stone because he has never and will never be a
threat to be a running back in the true sense. He is much more of a receiver – something that got
even more pronounced when he moved from San Diego to Denver. In 29 games as a Saint, he
has rushed the ball 135 times for 847 yards and three touchdowns, while catching 161 passes for
1,377 yards and 14 TDs. The combination of touchdowns and receptions make him an extremely
attractive fantasy candidate, especially considering that Sean Payton has never been willing to
give Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram the full-time starting job. He tends to switch things up and
Sproles has become a favorite of Drew Brees – a trait that can’t be overestimated. For the same
reason Jimmy Graham has become a star and Marques Colston is a killer in the red zone, Sproles
is a player Brees targets in the passing game and he provides a change of pace in the running
game. For his career, he has been an impressive runner – averaging 5.2 yards a carry on 284
career rushes. It’s hard to project him too high because he isn’t a pure running back in the
fantasy sense, but, when take a deeper look at his numbers, he produces the kind of numbers that
make him a consistent fantasy threat and a solid No. 2 fantasy RB option (even if he is a No. 2
option on his own team). STAT FACT: Could your commissioner make a claim that Sproles
should be viewed as a wide receiver instead of a running back? In eight seasons, he has more
yards (2,777) catching the ball that rushing (2,001) and has almost three times as many
touchdowns – 25 receiving, nine rushing – numbers that have been even more pronounced in
New Orleans (14 receiving, three rushing).
16) Darren McFadden, Oakland
From the day he entered the NFL, McFadden was dubbed as the Next Adrian Peterson. He
followed Peterson as the featured back at Oklahoma and, when he came to the league five years
ago, huge things were expected. He has shown flashes of being a potential big-time player, but
injuries have cut his career short so consistently some owners won’t even consider ranking him
in their top 30. In five years, he has never missed less than three games in any season and, for his
career, he has missed 23 games – an average of almost five games a year. He has sporadically
been an impressive receiver and, when he healthy, he has the ability to put up some pretty big
numbers – there have been games over the last three years where it seems like McFadden is the
only player in the offense and the Raiders are calling playing like power high school running
team. It seems like every year we have the same reservations about McFadden, he has the ability
to be a star running back – in his only year as a full-time starter (13 games), he rushed for 1,157
yards, caught 47 passes and scored 10 touchdowns. There isn’t any questioning his ability to be
an elite fantasy running back, but anyone who drafts him has to expect to be without him for
about four games and his bye week. That is too steep a price for many owners to pay, but, if he
isn’t being asked to be an every-week starter, he could be worth the risk. STAT FACT: As
much a result of a woeful offensive line as anything else, McFadden’s explosiveness fell off the
charts in 2012. In 2010-11, he carried the ball 336 times and averaged 5.3 yards a carry, scoring
15 touchdowns in 20 games – an average of three TDs every four games. In 12 games last year,
he averaged just 3.3 yards a carry – a drop of two full yards on 216 attempts – and scored just
three touchdowns in 12 games – an average of one TD every four games.
17) Steven Jackson, Atlanta
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Jackson is heading into new territory with a lot of the tread off his tires. But nobody can question
his guts or his toughness. A featured back on the highest order, Jackson turns 30 in July, a
number that has a Logan’s Run component for NFL running backs. A lot of great careers end
when the mile marker of 30 is passed. But, Jackson, for the time being and in the short-term,
may be the exception to that rule. Anyone who has watched Rams games, knows that he is as
hard-nosed a running back as there is in the league and coming to a team that emphasizes a
power running game and does it effectively as a counter to its deep passing attack, Michael
Turner offered little to the passing game. He was one-dimensional. Jackson is not. While his 90catch season in 2006 is a distant memory, he has consistently caught 40+ passes and could be in
for more with the Falcons that he was with Sam Bradford at the wheel. He may be something of
a gamble pick given his age, but, in eight years as a starter, he has topped 1,000 yards in every
one of them and has averaged 4.1 yards a carry in all but one of those seasons. He is exactly
what the Falcons running game is looking for and, while he may not be the Jackson of three or
four years ago when he was a top workhorse, he still has some gas left in tank and Atlanta looks
to be an ideal landing spot. STAT FACT: If you’re looking for a wild card for Jackson, it could
be Turner. In Jackson’s nine-year career (131 games) with the Rams, he rushed for 56
touchdowns – only one running for more than eight TDs. In five years with the Falcons (73
games), Turner had 60 rushing touchdowns and never scored less than 10 in any season.
18) Montee Ball, Denver ®
The Broncos have a backfield that is stuffed with players too old or too injury prone. Willis
McGahee had the shot of being the main man in the offense last year, but went down to injury
and was recently released. Knowshon Moreno had been rumored to be a cut casualty for months
and his job security is minimal. Ball is a complete running back who has excellent lateral agility
who consistently gets the extra yard or two that is needed. He could vault himself up the draft
chart with a strong preseason showing and, while John Fox has a history of sticking with veteran
receivers over the young guys, Ball may be an exception to the rule. He has proved he can
handle a heavy workload and, with defenses focused on Peyton Manning and the passing game,
he could provide the explosion from the run game that has been missing the last few years in the
Denver offense. STAT FACT: In his final three years at Wisconsin, he rushed for 73
touchdowns in 40 games, showing he could break long runs and finish drives at the goal line.
19) Frank Gore, San Francisco
Gore hit 30 in May, which is typically when running backs crash into the career wall, much less
a guy playing on two surgically repaired knees. In his career to date, Gore has only played in all
16 games three times in eight years, but two of those three have come in the last two years.
While no longer a great receiving threat – after averaging 50 catches from 2006-10, he has
caught just 45 passes in the last two years combined – he has posted two of his three best rushing
seasons in the last two years, rushing for 1,211 yards in 2011 and 1,214 in 2012. Somehow,
despite not being overworked or abused, he put together one of his most impressive seasons in
year, averaging 4.7 yards a carry. He isn’t being used nearly as much in the receiving end of
things, but he remains the focal point of the 49ers run offense. The sand is ticking out of the
hourglass, but he still has life left in him and has at least one more good year in which he can be
counted on to be used as a viable No. 2 type fantasy back. STAT FACT: Perhaps the best Stat
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Fact of them all: if you draft Gore, play him hard early and trade him. Over the last three years,
Gore has had 12 100-yard rushing games. None of them have come after Week 9. Translation? In
September and October, Gore goes off for 100 yards in half his games. In November and
December? Fuggetaboutit. Play him and trade him while he’s hot.
20) Reggie Bush, Detroit
Few players define the difference between PPR leagues and non-PPR leagues than Bush. In his
year with New Orleans, despite diminishing receptions in each year he played, nobody was more
of an enigma that Bush. He could blow up for three touchdowns in a game and then have sub-par
outings for the next month. He was rarely used as a running back and was primarily a third-down
guy and receiving threat. When the team signed Darren Sproles, he became expendable and
Miami made the plunge on him – finally turning Bush into the player the Saints never gave him
the opportunity to be. After missing 20 games the previous four years with New Orleans, in two
years at Miami, Bush started 31 of 32 games, ran for 2,072 yards, caught 78 passes for 588 yards
and had 15 offensive touchdowns. Coming to Detroit, he enters a situation where the Lions have
struggled at the RB position for years. They had hoped Jahvid Best would be the lightning
component of a Thunder-and-Lightning backfield, but his career is done. Bush is stepping into a
very good situation and has proved himself to be more than just serviceable running back and,
while not a 20-carry-a-game guy, could be a solid 15-carry guy with big-play potential. Bush has
never fully lived up to be the No. 2 overall selection in the 2006 draft, but may be in another
good position to be a solid fantasy running back. STAT FACT: Even as the full-time starter in
Miami, Bush had 20 or more carries in just five of 31 starts, but, to his credit, he topped 100
yards every time he got his hands on the ball 20 times. If Jim Schwartz is willing to give him a
workload, he will produce, but it has never happened often enough during his career.
FIFTH TIER (SOLID #3 FANTASY RBs)
21) Stevan Ridley, New England
How is Ridley rated this low? He will never be a receiver and, as such, is liable to be replaced at
any time or at least be on the bench for entire drives during any game he plays. Bill Belichick is
nut in terms of appeasing fantasy owners of Patriots running backs. A guy will have 30 carries
one week and 10 the next. Ridley was a stud when given the opportunity. He rushed 290 times
for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns – making him one of the most prolific fantasy RBs of 2012.
The problem is that Belichick rarely sticks with the same guy for more than one or two seasons
and, even when he does, there is a lot of platooning going on. If you go just on his rushing
production, Ridley should be ranked higher. But, when you have 386 touches in two years and
only nine of them are receptions, you have all the makings of a two-down back who is off the
field in hurry-up situations. He’s a value pick here, but, in PPR formats, he is as one-dimensional
as you get. STAT FACT: It will be in Belichick’s better interests to let Ridley get in the end
zone. In 2012, he scored touchdowns in 10 different games. The Patriots were 10-0 in those
games. In the games in which he didn’t score a TD, New England was 2-4. It’s hard to find a
failure stat for the Patriots, but now you’ve got one.
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22) Ryan Mathews, San Diego
The Chargers have done everything they possibly can to pave the road for Matthews. They got
rid of LaDainian Tomlinson. They got rid of Darren Sproles. The got rid of Mike Tolbert.
They’ve gutted their running game to open the door for Mathews, but he has yet to justify the
serial killing of other backs. He has yet to play a full season and missed 10 games in three years
due to injury. The result has been that more and more fantasy owners are getting off his
bandwagon despite Mathews having the skill to be an excellent fantasy player. As a rookie in
2010, he started nine of 12 games he played and ran for 678 yards and seven touchdowns. In
2011, he had what many thought would be a breakout season, rushing 222 times for 1,091 yards
and six TDs and catching 50 passes for 455 yards. He had fantasy owners fighting for the chance
to draft him last year, but again was knocked down by injuries. He played in just 12 games,
rushing 184 times for 707 yards and just one touchdown and his receptions numbers dropped to
39 catches for 252 yards. Aside from the utter lack of scoring punch, Mathews saw his average
per carry drop from 4.9 yards a pop to 3.8 and his average reception drop from 9.1 yards per
catch to 6.5. Owners interested in Mathews are likely ones who didn’t have him last year. To
those guys, he is poison. He doesn’t have a lot of burst in his stride – in 675 touches (564 carries,
111 receptions), he has just one run and one reception of more than 31 yards. Once again, it
would appear the starting job is his for the taking, but owners will no longer be giving him the
benefit of the doubt. STAT FACT: While he has been a prolific receiver – catching 111 passes
in three years, including 89 in the last two – Mathews has never scored a receiving touchdown in
his career.
23) Daryl Richardson, St. Louis
A year ago, Richardson didn’t have a guarantee to make the Rams roster as a seventh-round
Division II prospect, but he turned a lot of heads and, not only made the squad, but proved to be
a valuable and versatile change-of-pace back to workhorse starter Steven Jackson. He showed he
could be a hard-nosed between the tackles runner – carry 98 times for 475 yards and catching 24
passes for 163 more. With Jackson out of the picture, the running game is wide open and he will
likely be in a time share with speedy Isaiah Pead, but, given Pead’s one-game suspension, he
could fall out of favor with Jeff Fisher and the coaching staff and it could open the door to
Richardson. He is a prospect on the come – you have to have a little proactive faith that he can
be the man. He’s a risk/reward pick, but both the Rams and Fisher have a history of pounding the
ball on the ground and, at this point, Richardson will get the first chance to be the man in the
Rams backfield. STAT FACT: Richardson had 122 touches as a rookie, but his next NFL
touchdown will be his first NFL touchdown.
24) David Wilson, New York Giants
For years, the Giants had a tandem backfield of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Prior to
the 2012 season, the G-Men let Jacobs walk and Bradshaw followed him after the season. The
team used its first-round pick on Wilson anticipating that changeover. He is a speed back who
showed his versatility, scoring five touchdowns on just 75 touches – running 71 times for 358
yards (a 5.0 yard average) and four TDs, along with four receptions for 34 yards and another TD.
Wilson only got two starts as a rookie and will likely start the season in a time split with Andre
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Brown. Given the Giants penchant for being one of the better running teams in the league, it is
expected that Tom Coughlin will roll with the hot hand. Neither Wilson nor Brown is guaranteed
to be the primary running back on a consistent basis, but, given Wilson’s speed and the
investment the team made in him by taking him in the first round of the 2012 draft, it seems clear
big things are expected of him and he’s ready to take on a larger role this year and potentially
become a solid fantasy sleeper candidate. STAT FACT: If you’re looking an early indication on
Wilson’s strengths, it may be to play him at home. He scored four of his five touchdowns at Met
Life Stadium and had his top two rushing games there.
25) Lamar Miller, Miami
Miami has a big opening for someone to take over the role that Reggie Bush enjoyed the last two
seasons. He was a combination of speed and receiving ability that opened things up for the
passing game by keeping defenders and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. With Bush gone
to Detroit, that role is suddenly wide open and Miller may be the first in line to win the job. He
slipped into the fourth round of the 2012 draft due to his injury history and durability concerns.
Based solely on talent, he was viewed as a second-round prospect, but injuries can drag down a
player’s career and make him a big question mark. As a rookie, Miller saw spotty action, playing
in 13 games and having just 51 carries for 250 yards and a touchdown and catching six passes
for 45 yards. He will be battle Daniel Thomas for the starting job/primary back role, but it is
likely the two will be in a time share with the hot hand getting most of the carries. Depending on
how long the two last, they may end up being an RB handcuff in some leagues. You can teach
speed and Miller has it. Anyone who saw him play at The U knows what he is capable of. If he
gets the nod early, big things could follow, but he is something of a dice roll. STAT FACT:
Miller plays better when he gets more of a chance to get loose on the field and get in a rhythm.
He had just three games in which he had nine carries or more. In those three games, he ran 29
times for 192 yards – a 6.6 yard average that could be a factor in how he is used now that Bush is
gone to Detroit and his speed role in the offense is there for the taking.
26) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay ®
Lacy was an extremely productive college running back and many draft analysts had him going
in the first round of the 2012 to the Packers. However, with the devaluation of running backs on
draft weekend and concerns that Lacy’s turf toe injuries will plague him throughout his career,
he fell to the Packers in the second round. For a team as desperate for running help as the
Packers have been, recycling pedestrian players like Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson, the
potential for a young talented workhorse like Lacy is a tantalizing prospect that could finally
give the Packers some offensive balance and not make them so one-dimensional. When John
Kuhn is your leading rusher in given games, it’s clear that more help is need. If healthy, Lacy
could take over the job and be a fixture in the Packers backfield for years. Given the wide open
nature of the position, Lacy has the talent to beat out every RB currently on the Packers roster.
STAT FACT: Green Bay hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher since Week 5 of the 2010 season – a
span of 37 games and counting.
27) Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
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Stewart has seemingly always been in a time share with DeAngelo Williams and neither has
been able to break away from it. Since his early career blowup in which he ran for almost 2,000
yards despite starting just three games, the returns on Stewart have diminished. His carries have
dropped each of the last four years (221-178-142-93) as have his rushing yards (1,173-770-761336). He was finally given the chance to be a starter last season, starting six of the nine games he
played, but his production was the worst of his career. After averaging almost five yards a carry
for his career, even when he was able to play, Stewart didn’t produce much – averaging just 3.6
yards a carry with a season-long run of just 21 yards. Even more troubling was that, coming off a
season in which he caught 47 passes and seemed to assume the role as the primary receiver out
of the backfield, he had just 17 catches. He is at a crossroads of his career. Like Williams, he
agreed to a pay cut to stay with the Panthers, but this may be a make or break season for both of
them and they are feeling the heat. While nobody expects to see the two-headed beast of 200809, Stewart has the potential to rebound and regain his footing as the main runner in the Panthers
offense (outside of Cam Newton, of course) and could be on the fast track to winning the starting
job. However, with diminishing returns, a fantasy owner will need depth to take on Stewart as a
roster player. STAT FACT: In his first two seasons, Stewart scored 21 touchdowns in 32 games
– 20 rushing, one receiving. In the three years since, a span of 39 games, he has scored just 10
touchdowns – seven rushing, three receiving. Update 7/26: Stewart is still having issues with his
right ankle, and it appears he won't be practicing soon, so he could drop in future updates if he
stays off the field too long.
28) Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona+
Mendenhall appeared to be on his way to being the featured back in Pittsburgh for years to come
before a torn ACL in December 2011 derailed his career. At the time, he was on his way his third
straight 1,000-yard season. Unlike Adrian Peterson, Mendenhall didn’t recover as quickly or as
completely from his ACL surgery. Although he wasn’t put on the Physically Unable to Perform
list, he only played in six games in 2012, rushing just 51 times for 182 yards and no touchdowns.
He was part of a crowded backfield that didn’t have a single standout and, when the time came,
the Steelers let him go into free agency. He turned 26 in June and still has a lot of tread on the
tires. The Cardinals have struggled at running back for years and have typically found relief by
taking stars from other teams and making them their featured back – Emmitt Smith and Edgerrin
James come to mind – but both of them were beyond 30 and well past their prime. Mendenhall’s
primary competition is Ryan Williams and, if he could have got the job done last year,
Mendenhall wouldn’t be in Arizona. STAT FACT: Even when healthy, Mendenhall has never
been a yardage killer. In his last 26 games, he has just two 100-yard rushing games. Update
7/26: Mendenhall is locked into the starting job entering camp. Of course, whether he stays
healthy is another matter, but right now his numbers get a slight boost.
29) Shane Vereen, New England+
Vereen has been a player that fantasy owners have waited semi-patiently for him to make a big
splash, but, the role of the undersized speed back in the Patriots offense has been typically
manned by Danny Woodhead, who has moved on to San Diego. Vereen was expected to be a
frontrunner to be the featured back for the Patriots before a preseason injury sidelined him and
the offensive ship sailed on without him. In very limited use over two years – five games in 2011
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and 13 games last year, he has just 77 carries for 308 yards, eight receptions for 149 yards, but
five touchdowns. He was viewed as a frontrunner as a rookie in 2011 to take the starting job, but
injuries lost him that opportunity and he hasn’t caught up yet. But, in the Patriots system of
“Next Man Up”, it would appear Vereen is that next man and he could be one of the deeper
sleepers of the 2013 fantasy draft. He has a lot to prove because he has yet to prove himself, but,
the tea leaves appear to be coming up in his favor. STAT FACT: In 18 career games, he has a
career high of 11 carries, just two games with more than eight rushes and no more than two
receptions in any game. Update 7/26: Word has Vereen catching more passes with TE Aaron
Hernandez gone. As a result, he climbs our poll a bit this week.
30) Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis
It was starting to look as though Bradshaw was going to be forced into retirement when months
passed without him getting an offer. But, when the Colts came calling, he went from being just
an unemployed running back to someone who could end up being the featured back. His 2012
numbers (221 carries and 1,015 yards) were the second-highest single-season totals of his career.
That was due in part to being a time-share with Brandon Jacobs early in his career and the fact
that he has played in all 16 games just once in his career. Chronic foot injuries have plagued
Bradshaw for most of his career and the Giants got to the point where they felt they couldn’t
count on him and weren’t about to make a big financial investment in keeping him. The Colts
have a committee of running backs that will likely limit Bradshaw’s potential for over-use,
which may be necessary at this point in his career. If given the opportunity, Bradshaw is still
capable of big things, but there is some question as to how much usage he will get in the new
system. STAT FACT: Bradshaw’s reduced production as a receiver isn’t completely his fault –
he’s being targeted less. In 2010, he was targeted 58 times and caught 47 of them (81 percent).
In 2011, he caught 77 percent of passes thrown his way, but he was targeted 44 times and caught
34 of them. Last year, he caught 74 percent of passes thrown to him, but was targeted 31 times
and caught 23 of them. His receiving production has dropped both in terms of receptions and
catch percentage of targets, but it’s the reduced use that may be the most troubling to fantasy
owners.
31) BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati
BGE was an ideal fit for the Bengals, who haven’t had a breakaway threat in more the decade
after depending on guys like Rudi Johnson and Cedric Benson. It would seem the Bengals are
content to have a between-the-tackles banger and Green-Ellis fit that blueprint. In 15 games, he
had 276 carries for 1,094 yards and caught 22 passes for 104 yards. His lack of skill as a receiver
didn’t come as a surprise to many. In four seasons with the Patriots, he had more than 500
carries, but just 26 receptions. While he caught 22 passes, he averaged less than five yards a
reception, making him almost negligible as a receiver. In 68 career games, he has caught just 48
passes and has never scored a receiving touchdown. He isn’t likely to break off big plays, which
is why the Bengals used a Day 2 draft pick to snap up Giovani Bernard. Bernard is an undersized
speed back who will likely be used more like a Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush is used. BGE
should still get the lion’s share of the carries, but his modest production last year doesn’t bode a
lot of confidence to make him a regular player on a fantasy roster that isn’t crushed with injuries.
STAT FACT: In his final two seasons with the Patriots, Green-Ellis had 24 rushing
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touchdowns. In his first season in Cincinnati, he had just six rushing touchdowns despite having
35 percent more carries in a similar role.
32) Mikel Leshoure, Detroit
After missing his 2011 rookie season due to injury, LeShoure started his 2012 with a two-game
suspension, leading some to question whether he would ever be the big back the Lions were
looking for. Once he came back, he put together some decent numbers, rushing 215 times for
798 yards and nine touchdowns and catching 34 passes for 214 yards. Things looked good early,
as Leshoure had 26 carries for 100 yards in his first game, but he was consistently unspectacular
from there. While he had double-digit carries in all 14 games he played, he topped 70 yards just
once more. His saving grace, however, was his ability to pad his stats with a touchdown run.
From Week 11-16, when fantasy owners needed him most, he scored touchdowns in five of
those six games. With the arrival of Reggie Bush, his workload will change, but not necessarily
drop. He will likely be asked to pick up the hard yardage while Bush will be a change-of-pace
back and primary receiver. Bush’s role may cut into his receiving numbers, which could hurt his
value to PPR owners, but guys who score nine touchdowns are sure to get fantasy owners’
attention on draft day. STAT FACT: Why did the Lions bring in a big-play threat like Bush?
Because the Lions aren’t expecting to get big plays from Leshoure. In 2012, he has 249 touches
(212 rushes, 34 receptions) – none of which gained more than 16 yards.
33) Andre Brown, New York Giants
Brown is a feel-good story of resilience and patience while waiting for his opportunity. In 2010,
he was on the roster of four different teams – Indianapolis, Carolina, Denver and Washington.
His only stats came with the Broncos, where he had two carries for minus-1 yard. When he
wasn’t on a roster in 2011, it appeared as though that might be the end of the story for him – a
player whose NFL contribution was losing a yard for his team. But, when the Giants were
devastated with injuries, Brown got his opportunity. In 10 games, he had just 73 carries, but
gained 385 yards (a 5.3 yard average), but scored a whopping eight touchdowns. He added 12
receptions for 86 yards in the process and earned himself a spot of the team. With Ahmad
Bradshaw gone, there is going to be an opening for running backs in the rotation. Unlike last
year, however, Brown will start at the top of rotation and not the bottom. STAT FACT: In two
career starts, Brown had 27 carries for 178 yards (a 6.6 yard average) and three touchdowns.
SIXTH TIER (#4-#5 FANTASY RBs)
34) Fred Jackson, Buffalo
Jackson emerged in fourth NFL season in 2009 when he supposed to be the caddy for Willis
McGahee. He played so well that McGahee was eventually shipped out of Buffalo. However,
after his breakout 2009, when he rushed for 1,062 yards and caught 46 passes, Jackson has never
repeated those numbers. His production dropped in 2010 (927 rushing yards, 31 receptions), but
was on pace for a massive season in 2011 when it came to an end after 10 games. Through that
span, he asserted his 1A role over C.J. Spiller by rushing 170 times for 934 yards and catching
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39 passes for 442 yards – a pace that set him up for 272 carries, 1,494 yards and 10 touchdowns
with 62 receptions for 707 more yards. The setback allowed Spiller to make headway with the
offense and start carving out his own role – even though he didn’t take full advantage of the
opportunity. Last year, Jackson played in 10 games, but missed time on three separate occasions.
This time, Spiller took advantage and became the lead dog. It coincided with Jackson’s worst
average per carry of his career (his 3.8 yard average was almost a full yard less than his career
average). A healthy Jackson will get his share of carries and, because he is the better blocker, he
will likely be on the field in passing situations more often than Spiller, but it would seem that the
torch has been passed and Jackson is now 1B in the 1A/1B running back tandem in Buffalo.
STAT FACT: While Jackson has been a productive player capable of big games, he has never
been a big scorer. In six seasons, he has had 1,141 career touches (932 rushes, 209 receptions),
but has scored just 24 career touchdowns – an average of one TD for every 48 touches.
35) Leveon Bell, Pittsburgh ®
For the last few years, Rashard Mendenhall was the primary back in the Pittsburgh running
attack and was a consistent No. 2 running back in most leagues. However, when he went down
with an Achilles injury at the end of the 2011, it forced backups Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac
Redman into duty. Neither of them took the starting job by the horns, but each flashed some
skills that will have them in the mix again this year now that Mendenhall has signed away with
Arizona. Dwyer is ideally a change-of-pace back and Redman is more of a grinder. They each
have a specific role on the team that aren’t interchangeable. Enter Bell, stage left. A betweenthe-tackles pounder, Bell fits the historic template of what a Pittsburgh featured back is asked to
do. He is the combination of speed and power that has typified the kind of running back that
excels in the Steelers offense. He may not win the job immediately, but don’t be surprised if he
becomes the featured back by midseason and never looks back.
36) Danny Woodhead, San Diego
Woodhead has been an anomaly since joining the NFL. An undersized sparkplug, he was an
ideal component piece in the spread offense New England ran so often over the last three
seasons. Woodhead did little to nothing in his first two seasons with the Jets, but, once he came
to the Patriots, he posted solid numbers in a part-time role. He’s never had more than 100 carries
in a season and his rushing totals have dropped each of the last three years (547-351-301), but
his role as a third-down slot receiver has made him valuable. His 40 receptions last season were
a career high and got the Chargers interested in the offseason. With new coach Mike McCoy
expected to employ a spread offense and Ryan Mathews never able to stay consistently healthy,
the opportunity for Woodhead to set career numbers are in front of him. Philip Rivers has a
penchant for throwing to running backs and tight ends and Woodhead looks to be an ideal fit in
the system. The plan isn’t to make him a featured back, but, given Mathews’ injury history, he
could see the field a lot more than intended. STAT FACT: In his first four seasons, he 249
touches (189 rushes, 60 receptions) and scored just seven touchdowns – an average of one
touchdown for every 36 touches. In 2012, he had 116 touches (76 rushes, 40 receptions) and
scored seven touchdowns – an average of one touchdown every 17 touches – better than twice
his career average.
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37) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans
Anyone who has drafted a Saints running back knows the routine by now. Darren Sproles is the
primary receiving threat, Mark Ingram is viewed as the power back and Thomas is the most
complete back of the three. During his career, he has never had 150 carries in a season and hasn’t
had more than 110 in any of the last three years. He is arguably the most talented back of the
three and, when the Saints have opted in the past to go with one running back for a stretch, it has
just as often been Thomas as anyone else. He doesn’t have ideal speed, but his use as both a
runner and receiver (89 receptions overt the last two seasons) keep him viable and, if there is an
injury to either Sproles or Ingram, Thomas’ role is almost sure to increase. He’s the kind of guy
you like to have on the bench of your fantasy team because, eventually he will get his shot
during the course of a season, but the unpredictability of when that will come is what makes him
so difficult to draft him and make him a player that you count on for fantasy production. STAT
FACT: While Thomas has decent speed, of his 626 career rushing attempts, he has only two
carries of more than 35 yards, which doesn’t bode well for the take-it-to-the house type of run
that make mid-level fantasy backs attractive to fantasy owners.
38) Mark Ingram, New Orleans
When the Saints used a first-round draft pick on Ingram in 2011, the expectation was that he
would be the featured back that has been lacking in the Saints offense. Instead, he has become a
piece of the puzzle, but not the biggest piece. Injuries slowed him as a rookie. In 10 games, he
rushed 122 times for 474 yards and five touchdowns. Last year, he played all 16 games and had
156 carries for 602 yards and five TDs. He hasn’t shown breakaway speed – averaging just 3.9
yards a carry in each of his first two seasons and has just 17 receptions for 75 yards (a brutal 4.4
yard average) in 26 career games. He is a one-trick pony who can be a short-yardage option and
a between the tackles banger – anyone who saw him play at Alabama knows that he has the
ability to be a featured back, but New Orleans simply hasn’t provided him that opportunity yet.
If that is going to change, this may be the year it does. Teams don’t invest first-round draft picks
in role players – or at least they don’t do it for long before they get fired. It’s clear the Saints
have a plan for Ingram, but, through his first two seasons, it hasn’t panned out as expected. He’s
a good sleeper candidate at this point, but, when you’re a passing team and you other much more
viable receiving options in Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, there would have to be a change
in philosophy for Ingram to reach his full potential in the Big Easy. STAT FACT: The Saints
may have been setting the precedent for the future late in the season. In the first eight games of
the 2012 season, Ingram had just 54 rushes – an average of less than seven carries a game – and
had one reception for minus-1 yard. In the final eight games of the season, he had 102 carries –
and average of almost 13 carries a game.
39) Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta
Rodgers is entering his third season and emerged last season as an elite third down receiving
threat. As a rookie in 2011, he ran 57 times for 205 yards and a touchdown and caught 21 passes
for 188 yards and a score. In his second season, his numbers across the board spiked upward –
rushing 94 times for 362 yards and one TD and catching 53 passes for 402 yards and one TD.
The Falcons regime seemed married to the concept of having Michael Turner as the first- and
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second-down back and Rodgers being a third-down specialist. The same may not necessarily be
true with Steven Jackson. For those who followed the Falcons, they would typically have two or
three drives a game where they went no-huddle. In those situations, Rodgers would be the back
for those drives. Jackson is a much better receiver than Board Hands Turner, so he may get more
action in the passing game than Turner did. With Jason Snelling still in the mix, Rodgers’ role
may continue to be a work in progress. As the primary kickoff returner for the Falcons, he has
the chance to pick up additional fantasy points, but, unless the Falcons maintain their pass-first,
run-second offense, Rodgers won’t have an enormous breakout, but with Jackson being long in
the tooth, his value could grow as the season progresses. STAT FACT: Despite having elite
speed, on 151 career rushing attempts, Rodgers has just one carry of more than 20 yards.
40) Chris Ivory, New York Jets
For the last four years, the Jets have relied on Shonn Greene as their primary running back, but
made no effort to re-sign him. While Bilal Powell is the incumbent, many believe the fact that
the Jets traded with New Orleans to acquire Ivory, that he will be the frontrunner to win the
primary RB position. Ivory is a heavy-hitter out of the backfield, but injuries have been the bane
of his existence. As a rookie in 2010, injuries thrust Ivory into the spotlight and he responded. In
12 games (four starts), he ran 137 times for 716 yards and five touchdowns. The problem has
been that, in the last two seasons, he has missed 20 of 32 games due to injury and has rushed just
119 times for 591 yards and three TDs. In New Orleans, he was a member of a stable of running
backs – none of whom became a weekly guarantee to be a stud fantasy back. With the Jets, it’s a
different story. Powell and former Raider Mike Goodson are all in the mix, but, if he can stay
healthy, Ivory could end up being a bargain at this spot. STAT FACT: It may be part of the
Saints system in which they have always had adept receivers at the RB position, but prospective
Ivory owners in PPR leagues should be aware of something important: in three NFL seasons, he
had 259 touches in the Saints offense – 256 rushes and three receptions.
41) Vick Ballard, Indianapolis
Ballard was expected to be the complement to Donald Brown, but, when Brown got dinged
(again) early in the season, Ballard took over as the primary back and responded – starting the
final 12 games and leading the Colts with 211 carries for 814 yards and two touchdowns. He
enters this season as the starter with Brown as the complement, but perhaps the biggest issue for
Ballard is that the Colts have designed a three-man backfield that includes Delone Carter, a
massive plow horse that is viewed as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist. Ballard is almost
certainly going to be the leading rusher on the Colts, but he is a between-the-tackles banger who
didn’t have a carry or reception of more than 26 yards as a rookie. With Brown as the home run
hitter and Carter as the goal-line wrecking ball, Ballard’s options may end up being between the
20-yard lines – which doesn’t get fantasy owners excited. However, as the Colts needed wins
down the stretch last year, Ballard was the man and, with a year of experience behind him, he
could be the pounder that the Colts need. The only caveat is that the specialists that will cut into
his action. STAT FACT: If you believe in momentum, Ballard could be on the cusp of big
things. Of his top five rushing games as a rookie, four of them came in his final four regular
season games – as did 84 of his 211 carries for the season. Add to that the Colts playoff game
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(22 carries, 91 yards), not only did Ballard not hit the rookie wall, he was the man down the
stretch when a loss could have spelled the end of the Colts season.
42) Daniel Thomas, Miami
Thomas was drafted in the second round of 2011 draft with high hopes, but, at the same time, the
Dolphins picked up Reggie Bush – who emerged as the primary runner and receiver in the
Dolphins offense. As a result, Thomas never got the opportunity to be the primary runner in the
offense. A strong runner with decent receiving skills, he has solid season as a rookie – rushing
165 times for 581 yards and catching 12 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown in 13 games. In his
second season, Bush became more of a three-down back and injuries sidelined Thomas –
opening the door for Lamar Miller, who cut into his time when Thomas was healthy. In 12
games, he had 91 carries for 325 yards and four touchdowns and caught 15 passes for 156 yards.
With Bush gone, Thomas is the de facto starter and has the opportunity to be the main man in the
offense (Miller has an injury history that dates back to high school. With the potential of being a
full-time back (if he can stay healthy), Thomas is another fantasy back with upside who could
make good things happen. However, many owners will shy away from him because of the
questions about his ability to stay healthy. He’s a player who will become a value pick the longer
he stays on the board, but one that will last a long time on draft day. STAT FACT: Thomas isn’t
a game-breaker. In 256 career carries, he has averaged just 3.5 yards a carry – 3.5 yards as a
rookie and 3.6 yards last year – and has just two carries of more than 20 yards in his career.
43) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
For a couple of seasons from 2008-09, there was no more deadly running back tandem that
Williams and Jonathan Stewart. In that span, in 29 games, Williams ran for 2,632 yards and 25
touchdowns, while catching 51 passes and two touchdowns. It has been all downhill for both of
them since then. Williams was injured in 2010, playing just six games, and hasn’t fully
rebounded ever since. In 2011, he ran 155 times for 836 yards and seven touchdowns and last
year he rushed 173 times for 737 yards and five TDs. He remains a big-play threat – he’s
averaged 4.9 yards rushing for his career and has topped five yards a carry in four of his seven
seasons – but the problem has come in the red zone. It was bad enough when Cam Newton began
stealing red zone rushing touchdowns, but the addition of Mike Tolbert last year made a bad
situation worse for both Williams and Stewart. When healthy, Stewart might get more carries
because he is a power back, but Williams has the speed quotient that makes him a potential
game-breaker. However, his last of receptions the last couple of years – just 29 in 32 games (24
starts) – makes Williams less productive than many fantasy owners want in their running backs.
He has the skill to be a big-time player, but not a weekly fantasy starter week in, week out.
STAT FACT: In 2008, Williams exploded on the scene, scoring 20 touchdowns in 16 games (18
rushing, two receiving). In the four seasons combined since then, a span of 51 games, he has
scored 22 touchdowns (20 rushing, two receiving).
44) Marcel Reece, Oakland
The Raiders have big plans for Reece, who almost never leaves the field as the team’s fullback.
In Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Greg Olson’s first year, Reece set career highs with
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59 rushed for 271 yards and 52 receptions for 496 yards and one touchdown. He has been a
valued receiver out of the backfield and, given his ability to block, run and receive, he is on the
field for almost every play. While his production hasn’t been much to speak of – 505 career
rushing yards, 1,150 yards receiving and seven touchdowns – all signs are pointing upward for
Reece in 2013. Most fullbacks don’t get draft consideration, but, given the injury history of
Darren McFadden and free agent signee Rashad Jennings having never been a full-time back,
Reece could be in line to once again set career highs. Considering he has averaged almost five
yards per rush during his career, if he gets the chance to be the featured back the next time Run
DMC gets hurt, he could be worthy of starting in a given week. He’s getting more chances. If he
gets an actual opportunity, he could surprise. STAT FACT: If you’re drafting Reece, it’s based
largely on his receiving ability. In 48 career games, he has 212 touches – 106 rushes and 106
receptions.
45) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati ®
A player acquired with one of the picks the Bengals got in the Carson Palmer trade, Bernard is
expected to be the complementary back to BenJarvus Green-Ellis. A shifty runner with good
burst and a solid receiver, he will likely be used early as a third-down back and work his way
into getting carries as the season progresses. The biggest problem Bernard faces is that he will
have to deliver the Wow! Factor early on, because Marvin Lewis has been loyal to his featured
back during his entire tenure. While BGE struggled at times last year, he finished with 278
carries for 1,094 yards in 15 games – totals good enough for him to keep his starting job and
remain a 15+ carry running back. That will cut into Bernard’s chances of taking over as a
featured runner, but he will get his chances in the passing game and has a chance to make a
pretty significant contribution if Green-Ellis struggles or gets hurt. Ideally, he a poor man’s
handcuff – draft BGE in the middle rounds and, three rounds later, grab Bernard.
46) Mike Goodson, New York Jets
Goodson has the misfortune of being in a Carolina offense his first three seasons that was been
stocked as deep as any running corps in the league. In four seasons, he had just 160 carries for
722 yards and 40 receptions for 310 yards – almost all it coming in 2010 (103-452-3 rushing, 40310-0 receiving. He spent 2012 with the Raiders, where he was also used sparingly. Those aren’t
the kind of numbers that don’t get fantasy owners excited, but Goodson is stepping into what
promises to be a wide-open competition with Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory. A pecking order will
be determined in training camp and, given Goodman’s receiving and speed, the Jets will find a
way to incorporate Goodson into the offense in some way, whether it’s a big contribution or a
small one. Speed raises eyebrows, which makes Goodson a decent dice roll for a late-round
sleeper. STAT FACT: The reason why Goodson is a decent risk/reward pick is that, if given the
chance to start, he could do big things. In his four-year career, he has started just three games,
but, in those three games, he has rushed 61 times for 275 yards and a touchdown and caught 16
passes for 125 yards.
47) Ben Tate, Houston
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As a technical rookie in 2011 (he was expected to be the starter in 2010 before a preseason injury
ended his season), Tate made a huge splash when Arian Foster was injured and produced when
given the opportunity – rushing 175 times for 942 yards and four touchdowns. Things flipflopped in 2012, as Foster had almost 400 touches and Tate spent most of the season injured and
never fully healthy. When he is 100 percent, Tate can be the guy who spells Foster and there
isn’t a drop-off – as was in evidence in 2011. A classic north-south runner that fits in the
Houston offense, like Foster, he is a “scheme-sound” player who excels in the role he has.
Ideally, whoever takes Foster early in the first round will make Tate a handcuff pick, which is
why is rated here. However, given the workload that Foster has endured over the last three
seasons, the potential for a breakdown is there and owners who don’t have Foster may remain
intrigued because, if Tate is a starter in Houston’s run-first offense, the rewards could well be
worth the risks. STAT FACT: Why is Tate a good handcuff for Foster? In the two games he has
started in his career, he had 19 carries for 82 yards in one game and 16 carries for 97 yards and a
touchdown in the other.
48) Ryan Williams, Arizona
The Cardinals brought in Rashard Mendenhall, following in a grand tradition of taking on aging
or injured veterans (Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, etc.) and handing them the starting job. The
old coaching staff raved about Williams, who has played just five games in two seasons. A
favorite to compete for the starting job as a rookie, he was injured in the preseason and lost for
the year. Last year, he started three of the five games he played, but rushed just 58 times for 164
yards (a brutal 2.8 yard average). A hard-charging runner, he has the skills to be a featured back
in the NFL, but his injury history is troubling at best and the Cardinals likely won’t be the kind
of team that a fantasy owner wants to drop two draft picks to lock down their running backs. If
Williams stays healthy, Mendenhall’s tenure as the de facto No. 1 running back will likely be
dashed. But, if Mendenhall is strong out of the gate, he may leave Williams off the field – even
when he’s healthy. STAT FACT: Entering his third season, Williams’ next NFL touchdown will
be his first NFL touchdown.
SEVENTH TIER (YOUNGSTERS & VETS WITH POTENTIAL)
49) Robert Turbin, Seattle
Pete Carroll knows what he likes in running backs, which is why Marshawn Lynch has been
such a glove fit in his system. But, in many ways, Turbin is a younger version of Lynch – Beast
Mode 2.0. He has a very similar rushing style and would likely put together somewhat
comparable numbers. Despite a huge season from Lynch last year, Turbin still managed 80
carries for 354 yards and 19 receptions for 181 yards. He didn’t score a touchdown, so he is
flying under the radar. His value is heavily tied into what Lynch does, so he is clearly a handcuff
candidate, but, like Ben Tate as the primary backup to Arian Foster, the potential for Turbin to
be huge if Lynch gets hurt could be enough to allow owners with depth to make a jump for him –
even if they don’t have Lynch. STAT FACT: In the only game in which he had more than 10
carries, Turbin carried 20 times for 108 yards.
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50) Mike Tolbert, Carolina
Tolbert had been a fantasy anomaly in that he has never been a full-time starter, yet, when given
the opportunity, he has posted some impressive fantasy numbers – especially in terms of
touchdowns. In his final two seasons with San Diego, injuries and the loss of LaDainian
Tomlinson opened the door for Tolbert to get his opportunity. In those two seasons, he carried
the ball 303 times for 1,225 yards 19 rushing touchdowns and caught 79 passes for 649 yards
and two more TDs. He had become a deep sleeper in fantasy leagues, but didn’t get as much
work with the Panthers as many expected. He was a goal line runner and situational player
behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, rushing just 54 times for 183 yards and
catching 27 passes for 268 yards, but still managed to score seven touchdowns. As one of the
game’s best goal-line runners, situational receivers and a spot-starter, he brings a lot to the table.
At this point in the draft, owners look for players who can give them that little something extra.
Any part-time player who can score 28 touchdowns in three years fits in that category. STAT
FACT: Fantasy owners who have been forced to put Tolbert in their lineup with the season on
the line have been rewarded. In his last 12 December games – most during the fantasy playoffs –
he has scored 11 touchdowns.
51) Ronnie Hillman, Denver
As a rookie, there were big things expected from this small package. Hillman was slated to be
the primary third-down back and the No. 2 guy behind Willis McGahee. But, he didn’t pick up
the Broncos playbook very quickly and, when McGahee got hurt, Knowshon Moreno was the
one who took over. With McGahee out and rookie Montee Ball in, Hillman is again expected to
compete for the third-down back position and battle Ball and Moreno for playing time. The best
thing he has going for him is his speed and vision. He can make big things happen, but it didn’t
come easy as a rookie. In 14 games, he had just 85 carries for 330 yards and one touchdown and
caught 10 passes for 62 yards. If he steps his game and grasps the offense better, he will have a
role in the offense and many believe it may be up to him to determine how big a role that is.
STAT FACT: One of Hillman’s calling cards heading into the 2012 draft was his ability to
make things happen when he caught the football. As a rookie, he had one reception of 29 yards.
The other nine receptions accounted for a combined 33 yards.
52) Bryce Brown, Philadelphia
Coming off the 2011 season that Shady McCoy put together, the outlook for Brown in his rookie
season was expected to be minimal. Instead, thanks to injuries that kept McCoy down much of
the season, Brown was a pleasant surprise in an otherwise dismal season for the Eagles. He
carried 115 times for 564 yards (a 4.9-yard average) and four touchdowns. He wasn’t much of a
receiving threat (13 catches for just 56 yards), but he has soft hands and could be used more in
the passing game in the new Eagles offense under Chip Kelly. While McCoy is expected to put
up big numbers, Brown has earned his place on the field and will likely get his opportunities.
McCoy is expected to be the man and Brown, who has never been a full-time player, will likely
only be a major factor if McCoy gets banged up. If he has as much trouble holding on to the ball
as he did as a rookie (four fumbles, three lost), he may wind up in Kelly’s doghouse, but he has
the tools to be a difference-maker and could make it hard to keep him on the bench. STAT
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FACT: Brown was a Jeckyl-Hyde in his four games as a starter. In his first two starts for the
Eagles, he rushed 43 times for 347 yards and four touchdowns while catching eight passes. In his
final two starts, he ran 28 times for 38 yards and caught three passes.
53) Joique Bell, Detroit
Bell was a young journeyman his first two seasons, playing for four different teams –
Indianapolis, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Detroit – and didn’t have a single carry or
reception. Despite not starting a game for the Lions, he emerged as the primary receiving threat
out of the backfield. He had 82 carries for 414 yards and three touchdowns and caught 52 passes
for 485 yards. Unfortunately for him, the Lions brought in Reggie Bush in free agency. Bush is
expected to be the primary receiving threat, which could limit how much Bell is on the field. But
he has the power and tenacity to carve out his own role – even if Mikel Leshoure and Bush are
viewed as the Thunder and Lightning backfield. Bell can play both roles as power runner and
receiving threat. STAT FACT: The Lions offense had just three running plays of more than 20
yards. Bell had all three of them.
54) Isaiah Pead, St. Louis
It’s been 15 years since the Rams faced the start of a season without either Marshall Faulk or
Steven Jackson as the focus of their running game. Pead was expected to be the heir apparent to
Jackson when he was drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft, but his rookie season was an
unqualified disaster. In 15 fames, he had only 13 touches – 10 carries for 54 yards and three
receptions for 16 yards – and fumbled twice. Despite that, he is expected to enter training camp
as RB 1A in the battle with Daryl Richardson and his burst and change-of-direction skills are
expected to be his calling card. This will be a training camp/preseason battle to watch because
Pead has the skills to be a big-time running back and, whether it’s in a tandem or as the primary
back, Jeff Fisher has a big decision to make and whoever wins the job will likely be a steal this
deep into the draft.
55) Bernard Pierce, Baltimore
Ray Rice is the centerpiece of the Ravens offense and is as big a piece of an offense as any RB
this side of Adrian Peterson. But, when the Ravens drafted Pierce, they did so with the idea of
him being a complement to Rice that can take care of the hard running and have the speed to
break off big runs. Most backups struggle to get a 100 carries, much less in a backfield with
Rice, but Pierce had 108 carries for 532 yards and one touchdown. He wasn’t much of a
receiving threat – he caught just seven passes – but has the potential to become more involved in
the passing game. Pierce could end up being more than merely a handcuff for the owner who has
Rice. He can be more than just a complementary player. Even if Rice plays all 16 games, Pierce
could still put up the kind of numbers Ricky Williams put up in his stint with the Ravens. STAT
FACT: In the final two games of the regular season, Pierce ran 36 times for 212 yards and
followed that up with 13 carries for 103 yards in the first round of the playoffs.
56) Jonathan Franklin, Green Bay ®
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As previously mentioned, the Packers haven’t had a dominant running back since the days when
Brett Favre and Ahman Green were tearing it up. Ryan Grant put together some decent seasons,
but was little more than a middle-of-the-road fantasy RB. Things have hit bottom over the last
couple of seasons – any team that would take on an aging Cedric Benson proves how desperate
things are. So the Packers looked hard at the 2013 draft to cure its most glaring weakness. They
took Eddie Lacy in the second round and Frankin in the fourth round of the draft to mix in with
DuJuan Harris and Alex Green. While Lacy is expected to take on the role previously held by
Grant – pounding the rock between the tackles – Franklin is an undersized change-of-pace back
who could become a key contributor to the Packers offense. He has good speed and will likely be
used as a check-down passing option. Given as often as Aaron Rodgers lines up in a hurry-up,
no-huddle with three wide receivers, Franklin could find himself in position to make some noise.
Lacy will be given the chance to be the primary back, but don’t be stunned if Franklin and
Rodgers do good things together. Favre made his legacy by developing offensive threats and
Rodgers is following that path. Franklin could be the closest thing Packers fans have seen since
the tires fell off of Ahman Green.
57) Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh
The talk of training camp is likely going to be second-round rookie La’Veon Bell, because
Steelers featured backs have always been productive. But, when Rashard Mendenhall went down
last year, the Steelers had to improvise. Redman got a chance to be the man. So did Chris
Rainey. So did Jonathan Dwyer. But, it was a mess because nobody got a chance to be “the
man.” If there is going to be one of those types, Bell fits the mold best of what the Steelers of old
have done, but Redman is a beast. He seems to enjoy contact and has a nasty disposition when
the ball is in his hands. In each of the last two years, he has had 110 carries and has averaged
better than four yards a carry – with most of those yards coming after first contact. If there is
going to be a designated goal-line back if the Steelers go with a committee backfield, it will be
Redman. But, he is a risk because the odds would seem to be stacked against him to have a huge
role in offense, especially with the addition of LaRod Stephens-Howling, who was brought in as
a free agent. Redman can be a dangerous receiver and, in another system, he could be huge
because he wants to hit people and earns every inch of real estate available. If you have a solid
stable of running backs and aren’t looking for a handcuff on your last guy, watch film on
Redman and put a check mark next to his name. He has too much upside to ignore. STAT
FACT: What a difference a year can make in the maturation of a running back in the passing
game. In 2011, Redman caught 18 passes for just 78 yards – an average of just 4.3 yards per
reception. In 2012, he caught 19 passes, but they accounted for 244 yards – a 12.8 yard average
that was almost triple what he did the previous season.
58) Zac Stacy, St. Louis ®
With Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson fighting it out for the featured back spot, Stacy could
find himself in a sweet position being groomed by Jeff Fisher as a third-down/passing-down
back. Given the division that the Rams are in, they are likely going to be throwing a lot and if
Stacy can carve out a niche in the offense, he could be a deep sleeper type of pick. When Fisher
came to the Rams, he had to deal with the face of the franchise – which wasn’t Sam Bradford, it
was Steven Jackson. He inherited Jackson and neither Pead nor Richardson did anything to
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establish themselves as worthy heirs to the Jackson throne. Stacy isn’t the type that will be a 20carry a game type of player, but can do a lot of things well. He’s a poor man’s Brian Westbrook
and could develop quickly into someone who will be ranked a lot higher next year.
59) Kendall Hunter, San Francisco
At times during his first two seasons, Hunter looked better and more effective in games as Pro
Bowler Frank Gore. He was a step quicker into and out of the hole and finished runs better. As a
rookie, he carried 112 times for 473 yards and two touchdowns and caught 16 passes for 195
yards – posting very solid complementary numbers and, at times, visibly better than Gore. He
was only looking to improve on those numbers in 2012. With Gore being strong early – a careerlong trend – through the first 11 games of the season, Hunter had just as good if not better
numbers than Gore. He only had 72 carries, but was averaging 5.2 yards a pop – with a long run
of just 26 yards, that’s a consistent standard. But, in late November, Hunter tore his Achilles
tendon and his return will be done in baby steps. A healthy LaMichael James made headway of
his own when he took over the role Hunter had held. Jim Harbaugh has watched game tape over
and over and has been consistently impressed with what Hunter has done. There is a growing
belief that Gore is going to hit the wall that routinely hit running backs at that stage of his career.
If that happens, Hunter is in a prime position to take that role – which is huge. Monitor him
during the preseason because he could be the biggest RB sleeper of the draft if he’s 100 percent.
STAT FACT: Hunter has never truly been given an opportunity to show what he could do for
four quarters. In 27 career games, he has just one game in which he had more than 12 carries.
60) Knowshon Moreno, Denver
Entering the 2012 season, Moreno had gone from being the starting running back in Denver to
be rumored as a potential roster casualty prior to the final cut-downs. As a rookie in 2009, he
rushed 247 times for 947 yards, caught 28 passes and scored nine touchdowns. That was the only
season in which he played all 16 games. In 13 games in 2010, his numbers were comparable
(182-779-5 rushing, 37-372-3 receiving), but when Willis McGahee came to Denver, the price of
poker changed. He played in just seven games in 2011, rushing just 37 times for 179 yards. The
start of the 2012 season showed little more. In the first two games of the season, he had just
seven carries and didn’t play the next eight games. He appeared to be dead in the water. But,
when McGahee went down with a knee injury, not only did Moreno get a new lease on life, he
made the most of it. In the final six games of the regular season, he had 131 carries for 510 yards
and caught 20 passes. Stretched out over a full season, that would translate to 349 carries for
1,360 yards and catching 53 passes. McGahee is gone and Montee Ball has been brought in to
replace him, but John Fox has always showed a loyalty to veteran running backs and Moreno
proved himself late, which could bode well for 2013. STAT FACT: When given the opportunity
late in the 2012, Moreno had five straight games with 20 or more carries. Prior to that, he had
just five games with 20 or more carries in the previous 35 games.
61) Bilal Powell, New York Jets
In his first two seasons, Powell hasn’t shown much, but he is the incumbent in the backfield with
Shonn Greene gone. However, the Jets traded for Chris Ivory and signed Mike Goodson as a free
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agent, which muddies the water a little bit since none of them have ever been full-time starter.
Powell is a classic one-cut runner who finishes carries by gaining as many yards as possible after
contact. He had just 110 carries for 437 yards and four touchdowns in 2012, but with Greene no
longer in the picture, Powell has a chance to be the primary back in the Jets offense. While all
signs point to a committee approach, a power runner is always viewed as an asset and Powell has
his own future in his hands. He will enter training camp on the first line of the depth chart and it
will be up to Ivory or Goodson to knock him out of that slot. If Powell comes out strong, he will
hard to unseat, but there are no guarantees. STAT FACT: It’s well known that Powell doesn’t
have breakaway speed, but, in 123 career carries, his career long is just 18 yards.
62) Toby Gerhart, Minnesota
Being Adrian Peterson’s backup is like being the backup shortstop in Baltimore behind Cal
Ripken – you get some opportunities, but not many. His job has been primarily to back up
Peterson when he needs a blow and 2012 was Peterson’s best season…and Gerhart’s worst. Not
only did he have a career-low 50 carries after having 190 in his first two seasons, but his 3.4 yard
average was more than a full yard below his career average. He also had 20 receptions – the
fewest of his career – as well as a career-low 7.8 yards per reception. With Peterson setting a
goal of 2,500 rushing yards this season, the chances of Gerhart getting many opportunities
doesn’t appear to be in the cards, but, given Peterson’s destructive running style, Gerhart likely
will get more opportunities this season. However, his fantasy value would appear to be limited to
being the handcuff for the fantasy owner with the first pick in the draft who takes Peterson and
needs an insurance policy for that investment. STAT FACT: Running backs rarely have as
many touchdowns receiving as they do rushing, but Gerhart has six career TDs – three on 240
rushing attempts (one for every 80 carries) and three on 64 receptions (one for every 21 catches).
63) Michael Bush, Chicago
Matt Forte does a lot of things well, but, as we have pointed out over the years, shortyardage/goal-line running isn’t his forte. In fact, he sucks. That was the primary reason why the
Bears signed him a year ago. In four seasons with Oakland, thanks to injuries to Darren
McFadden, he became a sneaky fantasy producer. In his final season with the Raiders, he carried
256 times for 977 yards and seven touchdowns and caught 37 passes for 418 yards and another
TD. His timing was impeccable. He was a free agent following his career year in Oakland and
the Bears jumped on him. He didn’t have an eye-popping season – 114 carries for 411 yards and
five touchdowns – but caught just nine passes. With the new regime being employed by Marc
Trestman, the Bears offense is going to be more wide open, but they will still need a goal line
runner to finish off drives. Forte can’t do it. Bush can. While Forte is expected to be like a duck
in water with the new system, Bush is going to get his and, given Forte’s injury history, he could
end up being a valuable asset in the right situation. STAT FACT: Over the last three seasons,
Bush has rushed 523 times and scored 20 rushing touchdowns – an average of one TD for every
26 carries. In that same span, Forte has rushed 708 times and scored 14 rushing TDs – an
average of one every 51 carries – almost twice as many as Bush.
64) Joseph Randle, Dallas ®
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Randle was a fifth-round draft pick who was selected to be a third-down receiver and blocker,
but, given the injury history of DeMarco Murray and with Felix Jones out of the picture, the
backup role behind Murray is up for grabs. The Cowboys have a lot of faith in their drafting
acumen – despite spotty results. Randle has the ability to be a three-down back and showed his
value at Oklahoma State. He doesn’t have any guarantees of being a productive fantasy player as
a rookie, but, if Murray gets injured, which has happened throughout his college and pro career,
he will could be a solid late-round sleeper, especially in leagues that allow for players to be
carried over from year to year. He isn’t on most fantasy radars right now, but he is a player
worth monitoring during the preseason because he has a lot of things going in his favor.
65) Shonn Greene, Tennessee
In fantasy terms, Greene is the equivalent of Rudi Johnson – a player who gets four yards a carry
between the tackles and finishes a season with 1,000 rushing yards and 6-8 touchdowns. He was
the starter the last two seasons with the Jets and had more than 1,000 yards in both of those two
seasons. However, when it came time for Greene to hit free agency, the Jets made no effort to resign him, which opened the door for him to sign with a team in need. The Titans seemed like an
unlikely choice, but head coach Mike Munchak has been a fan of power runners, something
Chris Johnson isn’t. CJ2K is a home run hitter who doesn’t make his money in between the
tackles. Instead, he is a big play waiting to happen in the open field. When teams stack the box
against him, he can have awful rushing days – the 15-carry, 20-yard type games – and the Titans
didn’t have a second option to force the issue in the run game. Greene provides that option to the
offense. Johnson wasn’t happy about the signing, which could either motivate him to have a big
season or blow up in his face. Like most of the backs in this end of our rankings, Greene’s value
is much higher for an owner looking to handcuff Johnson, but he will get his carries. What he
does with it is yet to be seen. STAT FACT: Greene is a one-trick pony. In his four-year career
with the Jets (61 games, 31 starts), he has just 65 receptions, has averaged just 7.4 yards per
reception and has never scored a receiving touchdown.
66) Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh
In his first two seasons, Dwyer’s contribution to the Steelers was minimal. He played in just
eight games and had just 25 carries and one reception. When Rashard Mendenhall went down,
Dwyer got his opportunity and gave the struggling Steelers running game a boost at midseason.
In 13 games, he rushed 156 times for 623 yards and two touchdowns, showing surprising agility
and the ability to make people miss in the open field. While rookie La’Veon Bell is expected to
take over the starting job at some point and Isaac Redman is a beast who seeks out contact, to
start the season, Redman will likely be atop the depth chart and it will be his job to lose in the
preseason. It will likely happen at some point, but, if Dwyer comes out on fire out of the gate at
training camp, he may win the job and keep it. The Steelers are a team that shows loyalty to
players, especially those who produce, but Redman is going to have the opportunity to win (and
keep) the job. While a platoon is likely, don’t sleep on Redman if he’s on the board at the end of
the draft. STAT FACT: Redman started his first five games of his career in 2012. In the first
two, prior to getting injured, he rushed 34 times for 229 yards. When he won the starting job
back in the final three games of the season, in the final three games, he rushed 34 times for 113
yards.
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67) Justin Forsett, Jacksonville
Forsett has talent, but has never been a featured back in his career. In six seasons with the Colts,
Seahawks and Texans, Forsett played in 78 games, but started just seven of them. He has
averaged almost five yards a carry for his career and, in limited use with the Texans last year, he
averaged almost six yards a carry. He is a prototype backup, a player who can spell the starter
and be a situational runner who has proved his toughness and the ability to get the most out of
his rushing attempts. As has been the case for most of his career, he is ideally suited to be a
handcuff for owners who own Maurice Jones-Drew. He won’t carry a lot of value with other
owners looking for a last RB on their roster, but he has built a decent body of work over the
years and it shouldn’t change now that he’s in Jacksonville. STAT FACT: If there is a downside
to Forsett’s game it’s that his use as a receiver has been marginalized over the last four years. He
has played all 16 games each of the last four seasons, but has experienced a steady drop in both
receptions (41-33-23-3) and receiving yards (350-252-128-38) over the last four years. He has
100 career receptions, but only one of them has gone for a touchdown.
68) Ronnie Brown, San Diego
At age 31, Brown is viewed as a player who may be over the hill, but had a productive season as
a backup and fill-in with the Chargers offense – even though he has scored just one touchdown
over the last two years. When he was with Miami, he was viewed as a go-to running back,
topping 200 carries four times in six seasons and the only two in which he didn’t, he was on pace
to have more than 200 carries, but injuries cut his season short. The Chargers are expected to
keep Ryan Mathews as the primary back and Danny Woodhead was signed as a free agent to do
many of the same things that Brown does. He doesn’t have a guarantee to make the roster, but, if
he does, when Mathews inevitably goes down with another injury, it would be more likely that
Brown would be the replacement as the featured back over Woodhead. He’s a risk/reward type
of pick, but, seeing as he has just one touchdown in 30 games since leaving Miami, it isn’t likely
that he’s going to be too high on many fantasy radars. STAT FACT: In his first seven seasons,
Brown had seven times as many rushes (1,170) than receptions (174). In his first season with the
Chargers, he had more receptions (49) than rushing attempts (46).
69) LaMichael James, San Francisco
As a rookie, James played in just four games, replacing injured Kendall Hunter as Frank Gore’s
backup. He rushed 27 times for 125 yards and caught three passes for 29 yards. There are a lot of
fantasy owners waiting for Gore to hit the wall that some have been expecting for the last couple
of years. James was drafted because he has explosiveness and home run ability out of the
backfield. With Gore another year older and Hunter coming off a torn Achilles injury, the door
may open a crack for James to make an impression on the coaching staff and get more
opportunities to play. He was brought into the 49ers to potentially be Gore’s replacement. While
there is little to go on from his rookie season, 2013 will be a season to keep an eye on him,
especially during the preseason, and be ready to make a waiver claim on him at some point if he
goes undrafted, which, given his lack of rookie production, is likely.
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70) Shaun Draughn, Kansas City
The only thing that is certain in the Chiefs offense is that Jamaal Charles is going to be the main
threat in the backfield. In Andy Reid’s first draft, he selected Knile Davis in the third round,
which could be bad news for Draughn, who is entering his third season. He didn’t have a carry as
a rookie and, in his second season, he was a backup in all 16 games – rushing 59 times for 233
yards and two touchdowns. The battle will be wide open for the Nos. 2-4 running back spots on
the roster, so Draughn has no guarantees of being a top backup. He wasn’t drafted by Reid and
he has no loyalty toward him because he inherited him. He has the power to be a goal-line back
if given the opportunity, but there will be no givens in the new-look Kansas City offense. STAT
FACT: In the six games before the Chiefs bye week, Draughn had 45 carries and 14 receptions.
In the 10 games after the bye week, he had just 14 carries and 10 receptions.
71) Donald Brown, Indianapolis
A former first-round pick, the Colts have never got their money’s worth out of Brown. Expected
to be the replacement for Joseph Addai, Brown never lived up to expectations and, after a
lackluster start through the first four games of the 2012 season, he was replaced by Vick Ballard
and never got his starting job back. In four seasons (50 games), he has scored just 11
touchdowns and has none as a receiver. Despite seemingly being a natural to be a dangerous
receiver out of the backfield, his reception totals have dropped steadily over the last three years
(20-16-9) and he has never scored a receiving touchdown. With Ballard seemingly entrenched as
the starter and Delone Carter slated to be the short-yardage/goal-line back, Brown may be
reduced to change-of-pace duty and being hoped to provide a spark wherever possible. He has
the speed and ability to reclaim the job, but with a four-year track record of not producing –
never having more than 135 carries or 20 receptions – it’s hard to endorse him as a viable fantasy
candidate. The Colts gave him four years to prove himself and he has done little to earn their
trust. STAT FACT: Known as a speedster, in his last 12 games (which includes 127 carries), he
hasn’t had a run of 20 yards or more.
72) Brandon Bolden, New England
A big bruising 220-pound back, Bolden didn’t have a lot of playing time as a rookie. In 10
games, he rushed 56 times for 274 yards and two receptions for 11 yards. He found himself
behind both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, but, with Danny Woodhead out of the picture,
there is going to be a re-division of playing time – as there was when BenJarvus Green-Ellis left
prior to last season via free agency. As anyone who has drafted Patriots running backs in the
past, they know that Bill Belichick switches things up on a weekly basis. Given that Bolden is
the biggest back in the Patriots backfield, there is the chance that against weak run defenses, he
may be given the opportunity to be a banger who knocks people over. But, in the same vein, he
could spend long periods of time without seeing the field. Drafting Patriots running backs is
always a roll of the dice, but, being the biggest back on the team has its advantages. STAT
FACT: In Week 4 at Buffalo, Bolden rushed 16 times for 137 yards and one touchdown. In the
other nine games combined that he played the rest of the season, he rushed for 137 yards and one
touchdown – but it came on 40 carries.
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73) DuJuan Harris, Green Bay
Harris was plucked off the street in October as a free agent after playing five games in 2011 with
the Jaguars, he became a reliable backup who played in four games, rushing 43 times for 157
yards and two touchdowns. At season’s end, he seemed like he would be in a solid spot with
Cedric Benson not coming back, but the Packers used a second-round pick to take Eddie Lacy
and a fourth-round pick on Johnathan Franklin, created an extremely crowded backfield for the
Packers with no guaranteed frontrunners. With the two rookies and fantasy killer John Kuhn at
fullback, there is likely to be a division of the workload. If either Lacy or Franklin emerges early,
it will likely cut into Harris’ playing time. He will be under a lot of pressure early on to hold off
the new players and carve out his own spot in the offense, but given how often the Packers
abandon the run when it isn’t effective, there are no certainties for any of the Packers running
backs – much less the guy who is likely to be the No. 3 guy by season’s end (No. 4 if you count
Kuhn, who gets goal line carries and receptions from the fullback spot). STAT FACT: In the
two games Harris started in the regular season and the two he started in the postseason, he had a
rushing touchdown in each of those games.
74) Montario Hardesty, Cleveland
There was some thought following his rookie season in 2011 that Hardesty might be in line for a
starting job in 2012. That plan was dashed when the Browns traded with the Minnesota Vikings
to move up one spot to select Trent Richardson. T-Rich is expected to be one of the rare threedown RBs in the league, which may limit what Hardesty is able to accomplish even though he is
expected to be entrenched as the No. 2 running back in Cleveland. His numbers have been steady
if unspectacular in his first two seasons (88-266-0 with 14 receptions in 2011 and 65-271-1 and
two receptions in 2012), he is the next man up if Richardson gets injured. But, his lack of
explosiveness and acceleration will likely keep him as a backup – he’s never had a carry of more
than 25 yards in two years. He’s a decent handcuff option for Richardson owners, but his
production hasn’t shown him to be worthy of a roster spot yet. STAT FACT: In 169 career
touches (153 rushing attempts and 16 receptions), Hardesty has scored just one career
touchdown, which came on a 1-yard belly flop.
75) LeGarrette Blount, New England
As a rookie with Tampa Bay in 2009, Blount was one of the biggest fantasy surprises in the
league, rushing 201 times for 1,007 yards and six touchdowns while starting just seven of the 13
games he played. He came to Tampa with some baggage after being suspended by Oregon for
punching an opposing player (personally, we think the celebrating douche bag had it coming, but
he was a Raheem Morris guy. When Greg Schiano got the head coaching job in 2012, he made
Doug Martin his first pick and Blount took the brunt of the loss of production for other Bucs
RBs. In 13 games, he rushed just 41 times and caught two passes. He is a strong runner who runs
with a sense of urgency, which may explain why the Patriots gave up a late-round draft pick to
acquire him in the offseason. But, with the crowded backfield in New England, which includes
Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden and Leon Washington, there may be too many
players for anyone other than Ridley to garner serious fantasy consideration. Blount has proved
he can be a workhorse out of the backfield, but, with diminishing returns in each of his three
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seasons in rushing yards (1,007-781-151), it’s difficult for fantasy owners to expect a lot of
production out of him other than carving out a specialty niche. STAT FACT: Not only has
Blount seen his rushing yards drop in each of his three seasons, so has his touchdown production
(6-5-2) and his average per carry (5.0-4.2-3.7).
~ end ~
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2013 WR Rankings Analysis
2013 WR Player Rankings Analysis
Position Analysis – With the increase of passing yards, the transition into three-receiver sets
and the proliferation of PPR formats in fantasy leagues, the role of the wide receiver in the world
of fantasy football has been intense. Wide receivers used to go in runs in the second and third
rounds of most drafts. Now, guys like Calvin Johnson are likely to go in the top five or so and
those players capable of catching 90 or more passes have such a premium, some owners will
ignore running back early to land a couple of stud wide receivers.
While Megatron is the gold standard of fantasy wide receivers, he is far from alone. The
quality depth at wide receiver runs deeper than any other position in the fantasy realm by far –
quality wide receivers run more than 40 deep, which will fill a lot of roster space.
Unlike other positions, where there is a general agreement among the rankings, the
opinions at wide receiver as much more divergent, which will create situations where owners
will end up with four or five receivers on their roster that they love and may have trouble
deciding which to bench. While some of the most exciting wide receivers in the league hitting
their third season, 2013 could be as WR-dominant as it has ever been.
Tiering Analysis: It seems tyhat no matter how many times Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson
scores in a season, he's still the top WR to own. Last year was no different. After scoring 16
timers in 2011, Megatron only scored only 5 times in 2012. That's bad, right? Well, not when
you also catch a career high 122 passes for 1,964 yards! Bottom Line: Megatron is Megatron
and he remains the top pick and a first round fantasy choice in 2013. That said, he's not alone at
the top, as Chicago Bears WR Brandon Marshall is right there with him, since the Bears force
feed the ball to Marshall just about as much as the Lions do to Johnson. Tier #2 contains three
more receivers whom should top the 90-catch mark, along with double-digit scores (except for
one). Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green and Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant have emerged
as top 5 fantasy WRs, while Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson should be good for 105+
catches even though he's never scored more than 9 times in any one season. Tier #3 consists of a
mix of younger receivers on the rise with consistent veteran producers, including an older star
player. Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones, Denver Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas, and New
York Giants WR Victor Cruz have shown they have the talent to dominate on occasion. As for
Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, he finally has a solid QB targeting him, QB Carson
Palmer. Don't be shocked if Fitzgerald reclaims a position in the top 5 by season's end.
Greybeard Indianapolis Colts WR Reggie Wayne can still kick it, and QB Andrew Luck isn't
about to let him fall by the wayside. The 4th Tier contains more quality receivers, but ones with
more issues than those in the 3rd Tier. WR Percy Harvin has a new home in Seattle. WR
Randall Cobb is an exciting second-year receiver, one whose targets are a bit inconsistent,
while teammate WR Jordy Nelson has battled injuries, along with WR Hakeem Nicks in New
York. Tier #5 represents those receivers who are decent #3 fantasy WRs with potential to
produce better numbers. Players we like in this group include WR Steve Smith, WR Mike
Wallace, WR Antonio Brown, and WR Mike Williams. Tier #6 contains a mix of sly
veterans and fantasy sleepers who could break out. Favorites in this Tier include WR Pierre
Garcon, WR Kenny Britt, WR James Jones, and WR Lance Moore. Tier #7 and Tier #8
should be picked through to fill your final wideout positions. Players such as WR Chris
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Givens, WR Michael Floyd, WR Vincent Brown, and WR Mohamed Sanu could make
surprising fantasy impacts sooner rather than later this season. The key words for rounding out
your roster of WRs remain POTENTIAL and OPPORTUNITY.
WR Draft Tips – Non-PPR leagues: Try to draft one of the top 10 receivers. If you choose to
draft two RBs first, you might be pressed to find one of them available, so drafting a top 10 WR
before your second RB isn’t a bad idea if you are forced to choose from the 4th Tier of RBs for
your second RB. While it has gotten a bit easier to find a sleeper RB due to the RBBC trend, it’s
still easier to find sleepers at WR. If you don’t take a RB in the 2nd round, look for one of the top
five WRs. Make sure to grab a top 12 WR no later than round #3, or they will all be gone (12team leagues). Try to make sure your #2 WR is in our top 3 Tiers, keeping in mind that you
should have three RBs no later than the 8th round. Targeting a Tier #5 WR for your #3 and/or
#4 WR is a nice idea as well (if you can't get a 4th Tier player). In the latter rounds, look to take
wideouts in good positions with their team with the potential to shine via talent. Finally, it's
always a good idea to grab a flyer wideout as one of your final picks (i.e. Michael Floyd or
Vincent Brown). They are dirt cheap and could truly surprise. PPR Leagues: If you draft in the
first three picks, then take a RB first, then the best WR available with your second pick.
Otherwise, taking WR Calvin Johnson first and the best available RB in round #2 is a good idea.
Make sure you have at least two WRs after the 5th round. Take a third WR no later than the 8th
round (assuming you start three WRs). As mentioned before, fill out with WRs at good value in
the latter rounds like WR Chris Givens, WR Michael Floyd, WR Vincent Brown, WR Jacoby
Jones or WR Mohamed Sanu.
The Mastermind’s Best Bet: Take a top 3 RB first if possible. If they go before your first pick,
then take WR Calvin Johnson if available. If you took a RB in the first round, take a WR in the
second. If you took a WR in the first, take a RB in the second. If an elite top Tier QB isn’t
available in the third round, then mix and match RB and WR in the 3rd and 4th rounds. After
taking your TE (if required) and QB, look to take a top 40 WR by the 8th round. Wideouts in the
latter rounds who I am targeting include WR Chris Givens, WR Michael Floyd, WR Vincent
Brown, and WR Mohamed Sanu. Complete your roster with a flyer like WR Jacoby Jones, WR
Robert Woods or WR Keenan Allen. Finally, if you see your WR Corps as weak after the draft,
don't worry. The WR position is the one position where young players breakout early and often.
I drafted WR Victor Cruz with my final draft pick in the FFWebMasters Experts League draft a
few years ago and we all know what happened in his case!
The following rankings are based upon PPR (point-per-reception) leagues!
1ST TIER (THE TRUE ELIE)
1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit
There is little doubting that Megatron is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Over the past couple
of years, he has proved that beyond any question. While he only caught five touchdowns last
year, he was a PPR God – catching 122 passes for an NFL-record 1,964 yards. That came on the
heels of a 96-1,681-16 season in 2011. There’s little questioning his value and, in PPR leagues,
his value is so pronounced that a case could be made that he might be deserving of the No. 1
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overall pick in some scoring formats. Posting 11 games with 110 or more receiving yards last
year is epic. Johnson is as dominant a receiver as the league has seen in years. He has posted
four seasons of 1,100 or more yards and three seasons with 12 touchdowns or more. He has
become more dominant as time as gone by and has yet to have peaked out. While wide receivers
typically take a back seat to elite running backs and quarterbacks on draft day, Johnson might be
the exception to the rule. STAT FACT: Five receptions are typically the benchmark by which
elite receivers are determined because it would translate in 80 catches over a full season. Not
only has Megatron caught five or more passes in 15 of his last 17 games, he has 10 or more in
seven of those games.
2) Brandon Marshall, Chicago
Marshall has been a dominant receiver for years. Over the last six seasons, he has never caught
less than 80 passes, has 100 or more receptions in four of those seasons and had topped 1,000
yards in all six. Yet, his first year in Chicago was the most prolific of his career. He caught 118
passes for 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns. If not for the monster season Calvin Johnson put
together, Marshall would have been in competition for the designation of being the most
dominant receiver in the league. What makes Marshall’s achievements so remarkable is that he
hasn’t had a dominant quarterback – Jay Cutler is good, but not viewed as elite. From their time
together in Denver to last year in Chicago, the two have put together 100-reception seasons
every season they have been together as full-time starters. While Marshall’s numbers weren’t
dominant in Miami, much of that could be attributed to the QB carousel that was taking place.
With the Bears getting more support around him with guys like Alshon Jeffery and Martellus
Bennett, it won’t be as easy for defenses to double-team Marshall. We’re not saying he will
eclipse his enormous 2012 numbers, but he could be in the mix to match them. STAT FACT:
Marshall was more dominant on the road than at home. He scored eight of his 11 touchdowns
and had four of his seven 100-yard receiving games in the eight games he played away from
Soldier Field.
SECOND TIER (FIGHTING FOR NO. 3 OVERALL)
3) A.J. Green, Cincinnati
Typically, it takes a receiver three years to fully hit his stride. Green isn’t a typical receiver. As a
rookie in 2011, he posted the kind of numbers that make a player a fantasy starter – 65
receptions for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. Those were considered the benchmark
numbers to surpass in his second season and he blew them away – catching 97 passes for 1,350
yards and 11 touchdowns. He has already emerged as the go-to guy for Andy Dalton and the two
have a rare sense of timing. The scariest part for defensive coordinators is that it is typically the
third season when NFL receivers usually show you what they’ve got. 110 catches, 1,500 yards
and a dozen touchdowns aren’t out of the realm of possibility. As Dalton gets better and he and
Green continue to build the unspoken rapport QBs and elite receivers build over time, the sky is
the limit for Green and a case could be made that next year at this time, he may be No. 1 on the
wide receiver draft board. STAT FACT: While Green has been fantastic over his career, he has
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just one touchdown in eight games that would be played during the fantasy playoffs. In his other
23 games, he has scored 17 touchdowns.
4) Dez Bryant, Dallas
As if you needed any more proof as to the existence of the third-year receiver rule, look no
further than Bryant. In his first season, he turned some heads with 45 catches for 561 yards and
six touchdowns, despite missing four games due to injury and starting just two games.
Extrapolated out over 16 games, his numbers would have been 60-748-8 – very strong numbers
for a rookie. In 2011, his numbers spiked to 63-928-9 and he was a hot commodity heading into
last season despite questions about his maturity and work ethic. He shut those people up in a big
way last year, catching 92 passes for 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite drawing double
teams while Miles Austin missed time due to injury. He has emerged as a big threat and his
numbers have increased across the board – the most impressive of that being his yards per catch.
Typically, the more passes a player catches, the more difficult it is to maintain an average per
reception. Bryant’s numbers have gone from 12.5 yards a catch as a rookie, to 14.7 yards a catch
in 2011 and 15.0 yards last year. He has publicly committed himself to be a harder worker in
improving his route running and physical conditioning. If he has his head on right, Bryant could
be huge and leave no question who the top dog is in Big D and why they gave him Michael
Irvin’s No. 88. STAT FACT: What made Bryant such a stone cold killer last year? He scored
touchdowns in eight games, but in four of those games he caught two touchdown passes.
5) Andre Johnson, Houston
Johnson has been a dominant receiver in the league for years, but the biggest issue has been
stringing together seasons in which he has stayed healthy. In 10 years Andre 3000 has played all
16 games just six times and just once in the last three years. Healthy last year, he showed he can
still get the job done like few others – catching 112 passes for 1,598 yards and four TDs. He is
big-play threat, having averaged more than 14 yards per catch in seven of 10 seasons, including
each of the last four. The Texans have added complementary pieces and drafted DeAndre
Hopkins in the first round of this April’s draft. They’re looking to take some of the workload off
of Johnson. There will always be injury concerns, especially as he gets older, but Johnson has
showed no signs of slowing down – just the opposite in fact. His 112 receptions were the second
highest total of his career (and fifth season with 100 or more receptions – his last five seasons in
which he played all 16 games) and his 1,598 receiving yards were the most of any season of his
career. He may not be able to approach those kinds of numbers from 2012 again, but, if he stays
healthy, he’ll have a shot at it. STAT FACT: The only thing missing from Johnson’s game is
consistent touchdown production, especially of late. From 2007-10, he played in 54 games and
scored 33 touchdowns. In the last two seasons, he has played in 23 games and scored just six
touchdowns.
3RD TIER (CLOSE TO BEING ELITE)
6) Julio Jones, Atlanta
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Jones has spent the early portion of his career in the shadow of Roddy White, but, just as Marvin
Harrison got supplanted by Reggie Wayne as the big-time fantasy receiver in Indianapolis, it
would appear that the changing of the guard is coming in Atlanta. White and Jones are neck and
neck and Jones is younger and faster and ready to take the mantle of being the No. 1 guy with the
Falcons. And guess who is entering his third NFL season? As a rookie in 2011, Jones made a
strong impression, catching 54 passes for 959 yards (a sparkling 17.8 yard average) and eight
touchdowns. He was ahead of schedule for being a fantasy impact player and his numbers
continued to grow last year, as he pulled in 79 passes for 1,198 yards and 10 TDs. This year, he
is expected to exceed those lofty totals as he continues to emerge as one of the game’s top deep
threats. In 11 of his 16 games last year, he caught at least one pass of 25 yards or more and, in
two seasons, he has six touchdowns of 40 yards or more and three of 75+ yards. He is as
dynamic as any receiver in the league and the future looks bright. STAT FACT: The home fans
don’t get to enjoy Jones’ touchdown dance. In eight road games last year, he caught a touchdown
in seven of them. In eight home games, he had only one game in which he scored a TD.
7) Demaryius Thomas, Denver
Thomas emerged as an enormous threat with Peyton Manning in 2012, which coincided with,
you guessed it, his third NFL season. He battled injuries that forced him to miss 11 games his
first two seasons and his numbers were nothing to write home about – 22-283-2 as a rookie and
32-551-4 in 2011. The perfect storm of Season 3 and the arrival of Manning paid dividends
immediately. In 16 games, he caught 94 passes for 1,434 yards (an impressive 15.3 yard average)
and 10 touchdowns. He emerged as the team’s top deep passing threat and he and Eric Decker
created a formidable tandem that made Denver one of the elite fantasy teams in the NFL last
season. Some believe the arrival of Wes Welker is going to damage the numbers of both Thomas
and Decker, but, considering Welker is a slot receiver and Thomas is the deep guy, his
receptions may dip somewhat, but his yardage and TD numbers will likely stay strong. The
biggest problem he faces heading into 2013 is too much talent at the wide receiver position – a
problem every offensive coordinator would love to have. STAT FACT: The easiest way to
know when to play Thomas is when he’s in the thin air of Denver. He had eight games in 2012
with 99 or more receiving yards and six of them came at Invesco Field, as were seven of his 10
touchdowns.
8) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
Fitzgerald has been a dominant receiver for so long that his ticket in the Hall of Fame has
already been punched. He has been a game-changer for years, but his role as the pre-eminent
receiver in the league went away with Kurt Warner. In the last three seasons Warner was in the
league with the Cardinals, Fitz caught 293 passes for 3,932 yards and 35 touchdowns – better
numbers than any receiver in the NFL. Since then, the returns have diminished. Thanks to a
revolving door of quarterbacks, is receptions dropped from 90 in 2010 to 80 in 2011 to 71 last
year. Despite starting all 16 games, his 798 yards were his fewest since his rookie year in 2004
and his four touchdowns were the least of his career for any single season. Suffice to say, from
the fantasy perspective, Fitzgerald hit bottom last year. The arrival of Carson Palmer is going to
be a Godsend for him. Whether you like Palmer or not, simply look at the numbers he produces.
He is a passer and delivers the goods on a consistent basis. He won’t be the reincarnation of
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Warner, but expect to see Fitzgerald’s numbers spike back to what fantasy owners have become
accustomed to. Given the improvement the Seahawks and 49ers have made the last couple of
years, Arizona will lean heavily on Fitz to compete and he has the skill to get the job done like
few others. STAT FACT: How bad did things get for Fitzgerald last year? After Arizona’s bye
week in Week 10, in the final seven games of the season, he caught just 20 passes for 203 yards
and no touchdowns. What makes that even worse is that he had eight catches for 111 yards in
one of those games and 12 catches for 92 yards in the other six games combined.
9) Roddy White, Atlanta
White has been an elite receiver in Atlanta for years. Starting in 2007 (his third season), White
has had six straight seasons with 83 or more receptions, 1,150 yards or more and hasn’t had less
than seven touchdown receptions in any of the last five seasons. He is as consistent a receiver as
there is in the league and PPR owners absolutely love him because of his reception totals over
the last six seasons (83-88-85-115-100-92). While Julio Jones is emerging a bigger deep threat
and big-play receiver, White is no consolation prize. He has been Matt Ryan’s leading receiver
every year of his career and, even though he will turn 32 in December, he has shown no sign of
slowing down or having his skills erode. He has been an ironman as well – in eight seasons, he
has never missed a game due to injury (a span of 128 straight games). If there is such a thing as a
“safe” pick for a fantasy owner, it’s White, because he will deliver the goods on a consistent
basis week in and week out. STAT FACT: No wide receiver in the NFL is as consistent in PPR
formats that White. In his last 50 games, he has caught five or more passes in 38 of them.
10) Victor Cruz, New York Giants
Cruz burst on the scene in 2011 in his first year as a full-time player, catching 82 passes for
1,536 yards and nine touchdowns, coming out of nowhere to become a late-round fantasy stud
and introduce the NFL to salsa dancing. How do you follow up a big season like that? With 86
catches for 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2012. He is currently undergoing some contract
squabbles with the Giants, but, while he is technically entering his fourth season, this will be his
third year on the field (he didn’t catch a pass and played just three games as a rookie). He has
become as a big a big-play receiver as there is in the league. In two years as a starter, he has 15
games with 90 or more receiving yards, 17 games with six or more receptions and has been a
double-edged sword when it comes to putting up points in a hurry. Of his 19 touchdowns, they
have included catches of 68, 72, 74, 74, 77, 80 and 99 yards. It’s hard to imagine a player being
underrated as a top 10 receiver, but Cruz puts up the kind of back-breaking numbers that win
fantasy owners games and you can’t put a price on that – although he’s asking the Giants to do
that. STAT FACT: Giants fans are much more accustomed to seeing the salsa dance that road
fans. Nine of Cruz’s last 11 touchdowns have come at Met Life Stadium.
11) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
When Peyton Manning left Indy, the thought was that Wayne would be dead in the water. In
2011 when Manning was out with an injury, despite starting all 16 games, he caught 75 passes
for 960 yards and four touchdowns – snapping a streak of seven straight 1,000-yard seasons. His
fantasy stock was as low as it had ever been. He was a free agent and many thought he would
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either ride off into the sunset or move on to another team that wasn’t in a rebuilding mode. He
showed loyalty to the organization and was willing to be the main man for Andrew Luck, despite
the fact he turned 34 last November and his time in the NFL is winding down. That being said,
Wayne has been an ironman, playing every game since his second NFL season in 2002. He not
only put up solid numbers, but put up great numbers – his 105 receptions and 1,355 receiving
yards were the second highest of his career, the sixth time he had more than 1,200 receiving
yards and the fourth time he caught 100 or more passes in a season. While he isn’t getting any
younger, in a PPR league, Wayne remains as strong as ever and whoever drafts him will likely
have Wayne as an every-week start as Andrew Luck continues to improve – and continues to
depend on Wayne to be his primary passing target. STAT FACT: From 2003-10, Wayne caught
less than six touchdowns just once, averaging more than eight TDs a year. In the last two years,
his TD totals have been five and four, the lowest two-year total of his career since he became a
starter. Even more concerning of Wayne showing age is that from 2003-11, he never had a
season in which he didn’t have at least one catch of 50 or more yards. His longest catch last year
was just 33 yards.
FOURTH TIER (TOP 10 POTENTIAL)
12) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
In an era where quick timing passes have been the norm, Jackson has been as big a big play
receiver as there has been in the NFL. He has averaged almost 18 yards a reception for his eight
year career, despite never being close to the 100-catch range. In fact, prior to last year, he had
more than 60 receptions just once. There were concerns when he finally was able to orchestrate
his exit from San Diego that he wouldn’t have the same kind of production in Tampa Bay. But,
Jackson proved his doubters wrong – in a big way. Not only did he thrive in Tampa, he set
personal highs for receptions (72), yardage (1,384) and average per catch (19.2). While the Bucs
are far from a polished product, he has delivered everything he was advertised when he was
brought to Florida and exceeded the highest expectations put in front of him. If you’re looking
for a PPR god who is going to catch 100 passes, Jackson isn’t your man. But, if you’re looking
for a dynamic playmaker who can eat up chunks of yards at any time, V-Jack may be the guy
you want on your team. With 17 touchdowns and almost 2,500 yards over the last two years, it’s
hard to go wrong with him. STAT FACT: In his first season with Tampa Bay, Jackson had at
least one catch of 19 or more yards in every game and averaged 20 yards or more per catch in six
of 16 games.
13) Marques Colston, New Orleans
When one looks for a consistent fantasy performer, perhaps nobody has earned the respect that
Colston has. The only year he didn’t catch 70 passes was the year he missed six games due to
injury. Other than that, his receiving totals have been 70, 98, 70, 84, 80 and 83 and he has topped
1,000 yards in all six of those seasons and has been just as consistent when it comes to getting to
the end zone with TD totals of 8-11-9-7-8-10. The only downside to Colston is the nature of the
Saints offense itself. Perhaps no QB in the league is more adept at spreading the ball around than
Drew Brees. While Colston is one of his favorites, especially in the red zone, Brees has a habit
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of getting everyone involved in the passing game. The result is that Colston will have his share
of quiet weeks to go along with his big days. He isn’t a go-to target like Calvin Johnson or Larry
Fitzgerald, but he puts up such consistent numbers that owners who draft him and play him every
week know they will end with 80 or so catches for 1,100 yards and eight to 10 touchdowns.
Consistently like that over such an extended period is hard to find. He doesn’t have the flash or
speed of other receivers on this part of the fantasy list, but, whoever drafts him will start him
every week and perhaps the highest compliment he can paid is that, whoever has had him in the
past would want him back again. STAT FACT: If you ever consider benching Colston be sure
not to do it at home – 12 of his last 13 touchdowns have come at the Superdome and he has 12
TDs in his last 10 home games, while having just one TD in his last 10 road games.
14) Percy Harvin, Seattle
When one looks at Harvin there are more factors that need to be taken in than meets the eye. His
production as a receiver rose in each of his four years at Minnesota and, by the time he was
injured in Week 9 of last season, he was leading the NFL in receptions and was on pace to catch
about 120 passes. While his average per catch has dropped in each of his four seasons, his
dynamic big play ability hasn’t – in his first three seasons, his catches of 20 or more yards were
consistent (12-14-14) and he was on pace to top those numbers before a high ankle sprain ended
his 2012 season. Harvin is a “sum of the parts” type player. While his career receiving
touchdowns aren’t stellar (6-5-6-3), he brings a dynamic presence as a runner and return man.
When factored in the touchdowns he has scored as a receiver, runner and returner, the numbers
are much more impressive (8-7-9-5). If there is a question mark, it has been his injury history.
He plays with such ferocity that injuries have followed, as well as a history of migraine
headaches. He has played all 16 games just once in his career. Given that the Seahawks gave up
a first- and third-round pick to get him as well as signing him to a big-money contract, they
clearly have big plans for him. He has the potential to set career highs for yards, receptions and
touchdowns, but injuries will always be a concern because Harvin plays with such abandon that
he will take a lot of high speed collisions that make his a risk. But, when he’s healthy, it can be
argued no player is more dangerous for fantasy owners than Harvin. STAT FACT: In the eight
full games last year, Harvin had six or more receptions in six of them with reception days of 6, 7,
8, 9, 11 and 12 – the kind of numbers that get the attention of PPR league owners.
15) Randall Cobb, Green Bay
It never hurts when your quarterback predicts you’re going to have 100 receptions, which is
exactly what Aaron Rodgers said about Cobb during the team’s OTAs in May. He is well on his
way to meeting that lofty goal. As a rookie in 2011, he caught just 25 passes for 375 yards and
one touchdown. That changed in a big way last year when he caught 80 passes for 954 yards and
eight touchdowns. He has the added bonus of being a punt and kickoff returner, which have
resulted in three more touchdowns. There are some questions as to whether his expanding role in
the offense will cut into his return time because he’s simply too valuable to Rodgers in the
offense, especially now that Greg Jennings is out of the picture. Cobb is an electrifying receiver
and has the ability to become a huge fantasy star, especially in PPR leagues. He won’t be a parttime player in the Green Bay offense anymore and, despite a lot of talent elsewhere at the
position, with both Jennings and veteran Donald Driver gone, he could be one of three Packers
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receivers who top 1,000 yards this season. STAT FACT: Despite having elite speed, of his 80
receptions last year, none of Cobb’s receptions covered 40 yards.
16) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
Nelson is a big play waiting to happen, but injuries slowed down his 2012 season, as he missed
four games and parts of three others and his numbers dropped from 68-1,263-15 in 2011 to a 12game total of 49-745-7 in 2012. Like Randall Cobb and James Jones, his role is going to be
expanded and concentrated. He is a big play threat who has averaged more than 17 yards a
reception over the last two seasons and scored 22 touchdowns in 28 games. His is the kind of
production that wins weeks for fantasy owners. While his numbers will be up and down from
week to week simply because of the depth of talent on the Packers roster and teams likely
viewing him as the receiver they will put their top cornerback on, Nelson has the chance of being
a player who will fall to the No. 2 fantasy WR role and play every week in someone’s lineup
because the Packers are always liable to blow up offensively. The addition of rookie RB Eddie
Lacy may end up making Green Bay a little more balanced offensively, but that won’t impact
Nelson as much since he is a designated deep threat on the Packers and will still be running
under Rodgers bombs deep down the field. STAT FACT: What a difference a year made for
Nelson. In 2011, he scored 15 touchdowns – 13 of them at Lambeau Field and just two of them
on the road. In 2012, he scored seven TDs – six on the road and just one at home. Is he due for
another big Lambeau year this season? Who knows.
17) Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants
There is no questioning Nicks’ talent – he already has a pair of seasons with more than 75
receptions and two 1,000-yard receiving years – but the bigger issue with him has been health.
He has yet to play a full 16-game schedule and, even when he does play, he has appeared on the
weekly injury reports far too often, forcing fantasy owners to make the decision as to whether to
start him or put him on the bench when he is listed as questionable. What made him even more
troubling last year was that, not only did he miss three games and five starts due to injury, after
scoring 15 touchdowns in 28 games the previous two seasons, he scored just three TDs last year.
He is in the middle of a contract squabble with the Giants, which is never a good sign, but his
ability in the red zone as well as his propensity for scoring touchdowns make him a valuable
commodity. A lot of fantasy owners like the idea of taking a player who is in a contract year and,
if it is the motivation needed to light a fire under him, Nicks could be a solid value pick at this
spot. STAT FACT: PPR league owners noticed the difference in Nicks last year beyond the
touchdown disparity over the previous two years. In 2010-11, he caught six or more passes in 14
of 28 games (50 percent). In 2012, he caught six or more passes in just two games (15 percent).
FIFTH TIER (DECENT #2/GREAT #3 FANTASY WRS IN LARGE LEAGUES)
18) Danny Amendola, New England+
When Wes Welker “became” Wes Welker, the first thing that had to happen was the emergence
of the “Next Wes Welker.” The fact that Amendola is now officially replacing Welker with Tom
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Brady in New England speaks volumes to what Bill Belichick sees in him as a possession, move
the chains type of receiver. In four years with St. Louis, Amendola was a poor man’s Welker. He
averages less than nine yards a reception. Those are the kind of numbers fullbacks and blocking
tight ends put up. In 2010, he caught 85 passes for 689 yards – an average (8.1 yards) that was
even lower than his career average. When Belichick gave up a second-round pick (two rounds
higher than he gave Oakland to bring the Moss Magic to New England), he knew what he was
doing. In case you’ve forgotten, go up two spots and re-read what Welker did under Big Bill’s
watch. If Amendola ends up on your team, you’re picking him on the Belichick instinct. By any
account of track record, Amendola doesn’t belong here. But he is. And Belichick is the reason.
There’s always one guy who thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. Belichick more times than
not is that guy. STAT FACT: In four seasons with St. Louis, Amendola’s Rams played 64
games. Amendola played in just 42 of them – 30 in his first two years and 12 in the last two.
Update 7/26: Amendola has worked hard to develop chemistry with Brady and it seems to have
worked during the offseason. As a result, Amendola gets a slight boost as training camps begin.
19) Steve Smith, Carolina
Smith has been an elite fantasy wide receiver for some time and, even at the age of 34, he has
found a career rejuvenation with Cam Newton. After a pair of down seasons in 2009-10 when
fantasy owners were climbing off the bandwagon, Smith was averaging less than 14 yards a
reception and hit bottom in 2010 – catching just 46 passes for 554 yards and two TDs. When
Newton arrived in 2011, not only did Smith’s numbers spike markedly upward, but so did his
explosiveness. In 2011 he caught 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven TDs and averaged 17.6
yards per catch – the second-highest total of his career. He backed that up in 2012 by catching 73
passes for 1,174 yards and three TDs – a 16.1 yard average. Not only did his production rise, but
he has started all 16 games each of the last two seasons, something he hadn’t done since 2005.
With Newton maturing and Smith still showing he has what it takes to be a big-time fantasy wide
receiver, he still has gas left in the tank and, while no longer a No. 1 fantasy receiver, he has the
ability to be a full-time starter in a No. 2 WR role. STAT FACT: The biggest drawback to
Smith is that, in an era where elite wide receivers score a bunch of touchdowns, Smith just
doesn’t get it done. In 2005-06, he scored 20 touchdowns in 30 games – an average of two TDs
every three games. In the six seasons since, he has never scored more than seven touchdowns in
a year and has 32 touchdowns in 90 games, approximately one TD in every three games.
20) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
He is making some bold predictions for this season, claiming he is going to lead the NFL in
receptions and touchdowns, but, after scoring 15 TDs in 201, he caught just 59 passes for 801
yards and three TDs in 13 games last year. In six NFL seasons, in the four in which he has
played in all 16 games, he has never caught less than 70 passes and has 1,000 yards in three of
those seasons and 995 in the other. It’s clear that Andy Reid and the new coaching staff have big
plans for Bowe. He was expected to be the premier wideout in free agency, but the Chiefs
stepped up and made sure he didn’t get away. That speaks volumes. They want to make Alex
Smith successful and he has a pair of big-time players in Bowe and Jamaal Charles to help get
that job done. Whether or not Bowe can back up his tough talking is far from certain, but, when
he is healthy, he is a difference-maker and the Chiefs are gaining steam as a team that is going to
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make a big jump after having the first pick in April’s draft. For that to happen, Bowe will have to
be a big part of that and Reid has tabbed him to be the go-to guy in the offense, which makes
him a player a lot of fantasy owners will want as a No. 2 or 3 fantasy WR. STAT FACT: In
2010, Bowe caught 72 passes and 15 of them went for touchdowns – an average of better than
one TD every 4.8 receptions. Over the last two seasons, he has caught 140 passes for just eight
touchdowns, an average of one TD every 17.5 receptions.
21) Mike Wallace, Miami
Wallace is a big-play receiver and in a new locale with a young quarterback and a fresh start. He
was Ben Roethlisberger’s primary big-play target in all four of his seasons in Pittsburgh. As a
rookie, he caught, 39 passes for 756 yards and six touchdowns. In 2010, he caught just 60 passes,
but averaged 21 yards a catch, gaining 1,257 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. After catching
72 passes for 1,193 yards and eight TDs in 2011, it would seem his contract got in the way. The
Steelers needed to sign one of their wide receivers long-term and opted to put out a deal to both
Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders’ people accepted the offer and Wallace knew his days
in Pittsburgh were numbered. Whether or not that impacted his season is up to speculation, but
the numbers don’t lie – they dropped on all accounts. He caught 64 passes for 836 yards and
eight touchdowns, not bad for a big-play threat. But, after averaging 18.7 yards per reception in
his first three seasons – a span that was pretty exhaustive considering he had 171 receptions in
that span – in 2012, his average per reception dropped to 13.1 yards a catch. With his fresh
outlook in Miami, expect to see a return to the high average-per-catch numbers to return. They
might not be as prolific in terms of touchdowns as he had in Pittsburgh, but he is the clear-cut
No. 1 guy for Ryan Tannehill. Some fantasy owners need to see proof before investing in a
player, but Wallace has all the earmarks of being a big-play guy in new environment. Whether
he can handle the load of being a clear-cut No. 1 guy is up to debate, which is why he is ranked
where he is. STAT FACT: Wallace has 32 career touchdowns. Of those, 18 have been of 33
yards or more – TDs of 33, 37, 39, 40, 40, 40, 43, 46, 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 60, 81, 82 and 95
yards – which represent more than 56 percent of his career touchdowns. When he scores, he
brings along points-a-plenty.
22) Wes Welker, Denver
Welker has been a PPR dream for years in New England and has set the reception standard by
which PPR players are based. While his touchdown totals have spotty (8-3-4-7-9-6), there has
been no questioning his reception numbers (112-111-123-86-122-118) and has had 1,165 or
more yards in five of six seasons with the New England. He heads to a new system in Denver
and won’t feel a drop off by exchanging Tom Brady for Peyton Manning. The only difference is
that Welker was the unquestioned top receiver in New England almost the entire time he was
there. In Denver, he not only joins a new offense, but does so with a team that already has
Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. While it wouldn’t be out of the question to imagine Welker
catching 110 or more passes for the sixth time in seven years, it may be a stretch to expect those
kind of numbers given the other young options in the Denver passing game. If he was still with
New England, he would be ranked much higher, but Denver brought him in for a reason –
primarily to take away from their top conference rival and add that player to their own team.
STAT FACT: PPR leagues should have a trophy that is a bust of Welker. In PPR leagues,
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catching six passes is equivalent to scoring a touchdown. In 93 games with the Patriots, Welker
caught six or more passes in 68 games (73 percent) and had 10 or more catches in 18 games –
almost 20 percent of his games.
23) Eric Decker, Denver
Decker was in a perfect storm of third-year receiver meeting a Hall of Fame quarterback. In his
rookie season, he had no guarantee of being a long-term option. He played in 14 games,
primarily on special teams, and caught just six passes for 106 yards and one TD. In his second
season, he started 13 of the 16 games he played – as much by default as anything else – and
caught 44 passes for 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Enter Peyton Manning. Suddenly, Decker
became a fantasy stud. We’re even willing to concede it didn’t have to do with being his third
season, but we’re not discounting it either. Decker caught 85 passes for 1,064 yards and 13
touchdowns. Had Wes Welker not come over to the Broncos, Decker would be rated much
higher than he is. Will he still be productive? No question about that. But, given that Damaryius
Thomas is the big-play deep threat and Welker is going to steal receptions, Decker has become
No. 3 by default. What is the long-term impact? If you are in a dynasty league, you want Decker.
Bad! Manning will ride off into the sunset soon enough. So will Welker. Decker is a talent that
will take his talents to South Beach or somewhere else when his current contract expires, but all
he does is make plays and score touchdowns. If he is you’re No. 3 fantasy receiver, you are in
rarified air. But, considering that he is Denver’s No. 3 receiver, you can’t rate him higher. STAT
FACT: Say what you want to about his situation, but if Decker catches six passes, he should
score a touchdown. Why? He has 135 career receptions and 22 career touchdowns – an average
of one TD every six catches.
24) Torrey Smith, Baltimore
Smith has put up extremely similar numbers in his first two seasons. As a rookie in 2011, he
caught 50 passes for 841 yards and seven touchdowns. Last year, he caught 49 passes for 855
yards and eight touchdowns. While both of them are solid numbers, especially the average per
catch (17.1 yards), it doesn’t necessarily translate into big numbers in PPR leagues. However,
with Smith entering his third season and Anquan Boldin no longer in the picture as the No. 1
receiver, a lot more is going to be expected of Smith this season. It is time for him to step up as
so many third-year receivers do. While he has yet to fully emerge and will be drafted on
anticipated production, he has set a solid base level of numbers for himself in his first two
seasons and has nowhere to go but up with more opportunities presenting themselves. He is a
value pick here and all that is missing is about 20 more receptions a year. Expect to see those
numbers come in 2013. STAT FACT: If you need a reason to play Smith, having him at home
would be a safe bet. He has scored 12 of his 15 career touchdowns at home and has three of his
four career 100-yard receiving games in front of the homes fans.
25) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
Brown has been an up-and-down performer, yet, when it came time for the Steelers to sign one
of their young receivers to a long-term contract, they chose Brown over Mike Wallace, he left
via free agency. While Brown has been erratic – in his second season, he caught 69 passes for
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1,108 yards (a 16.1 yard average) and two touchdowns, but followed that up with sub-par
numbers in 2012 (66-787-5) in an injury riddled season – the Steelers have cleared the path for
him to be a headliner in their offense. Blessed with good speed, it didn’t show last year, as his
average per reception dropped by more than four yards a catch. However, with Wallace in
Miami, Hines Ward no longer stealing away catches and Heath Miller a legitimate question mark
heading into the season after a devastating knee injury, Brown may well be the No. 1 receiving
option by a significant distance. Pittsburgh usually knows what it is doing when it comes to
making personnel decisions, it would seem clear that the Steelers have big plans for him and
Brown’s numbers could spike significantly in 2013. Like a lot of the guys in this area, Brown
comes with question marks and is something of a dice-roll when it comes to drafting him. All
signs point to increased production, but it will take some guts to pull the trigger, especially if he
is expected to be a lineup regular. STAT FACT: While Brown has good speed and has scored
long touchdowns during his career, his TD production has never caught up with his role in the
offense. Of 151 career receptions, he has scored just seven touchdowns – and average of one TD
in every 22 receptions.
26) Stevie Johnson, Buffalo
Johnson has become a consistent fantasy performer, posting nearly identical numbers the last
three years – 82-1,073-10 in 2010, 76-1,004-7 in 2011 and 79-1,046-6 in 2012. While his
touchdown numbers have dropped in each of three seasons as full-time starter, he has put up
such consistent numbers that he can be counted on for 80 catches and 1,000 yards. Considering
that he has done his damage without a legitimate No. 2 receiver to take double-teams away from
him and questionable quarterback play around him, his numbers are impressive. The addition of
Robert Woods to be a complementary receiver and E.J. Manuel as the new quarterback could
make Johnson even more valuable. The biggest issue is that, while his numbers are very solid for
a No. 3 fantasy receiver, his TD production has dropped each of the last three years and the
return on investment has been diminished with each successive season. He still has considerable
upside and may not last this long on draft day in a lot of leagues, but he isn’t the type of receiver
a lot of owners will want to count on every week because the big-time production just isn’t there
on a week to week basis. STAT FACT: Johnson’s consistency has been uncanny in terms of
receptions and yards and that has translated into extremely similar numbers when it comes to his
average per catch. In his three years as a starter, his yards-per-reception averages have been 13.1,
13.2 and 13.2 yards in those seasons.
27) Mike Williams, Tampa Bay
Williams burst on the scene as a rookie in 2010, catching 65 passes for 964 yards and 11
touchdowns, making an immediate splash. It got fantasy owners excited about his potential in
2011, but his numbers leveled off considerably. While he caught 65 passes for second straight
year, his yardage dropped to 771 yards and his touchdowns dropped to three. Just as the buzz
what hot on Williams heading into 2011, he was just as cold heading into 2012, especially with
the addition of Vincent Jackson. When he was a rookie, he wasn’t viewed as the No. 1 receiving
option and produced in a big and surprising way. As the No. 1 guy in 2011, he struggled. But,
when Jackson arrived and garnered a lot more of the defensive attention, Williams’ numbers
rebounded nicely. He caught 63 passes, but set a personal best with 996 yards and his touchdown
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total jumped to nine. With the Bucs expected to have a more wide open offense this year,
Williams will once again have his stock on the rise and, while he is likely to catch 60+ passes
and push for 1,000 yards and potentially double-digit touchdowns. He isn’t what would be
considered a sexy fantasy pick, but he gets the job done consistently enough that he will be a
value pick in this area of the draft and he has the potential to be a fantasy starter more weeks
than not. STAT FACT: In the last two years, Williams has had four games with 95 or more
receiving yards – all of them coming at home.
SIXTH TIER (VETERANS/YOUNGSTERS WITH POTENTIAL)
28) Greg Jennings, Minnesota
Jennings has been a quiet fantasy star for years. After a slow start to his career as rookie, over
the next five years, he never had less than 920 receiving yards and had touchdown totals of 12-94-12-9. He proved he could be a go-to guy both with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers and, in the
three seasons he has played all 16 games, his yearly numbers have been impressive – 80-1,292-9,
68-1,113-4 and 76-1,265-12. The problem has been that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy with
any consistency. He has missed time in four of seven seasons – the worst coming in 2012 when
he was dogged with injuries the entire season. He played in just eight games and his yardage
numbers fell through the floor. After averaging 15.9 yards per reception during his career, he
averaged just 10.2 yards per catch last year. Seemingly like the odd-man-out in Green Bay, the
Packers didn’t make a legitimate offer for him to return to Green Bay and he became the latest to
commit the sin of signing with rival Minnesota – joining Darren Sharper, Ryan Longwell and
Brett Favre. Jennings is being counted on to be a leader among a young receiver corps like he
was in Green Bay as he helped in the development of Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall
Cobb. If healthy, Jennings could be a sleeper here because he is expected to be the clear-cut No.
1 guy, something he hasn’t been the last two years in Green Bay. While a lot of fantasy owners
have little to no confidence in Christian Ponder, Jennings is going to be the No. 1 receiver. At
this point in the draft, finding a No. 3 receiver who can be a No. 1 target for his team is always a
plus. STAT FACT: In his last 14 games, Jennings had more than 50 receiving yards in just three
games. In his previous 17 games, he had more than 50 yards in 16 games and 80 or more in 14 of
them.
29) Pierre Garcon, Washington
When Garcon became a free agent following the 2011 seasons, the Redskins surprised a lot of
people when they backed up the Brink’s truck and gave him a monster contract and immediately
anointed him as the No. 1 receiver for Robert Griffin III. He had made a consistent rise in
production in three years as a starter with the Colts – 47-765-4 in 2009, 67-783-6 in 2010 and
70-947-6 in 2011. He was viewed by most as a talented player, but just as much a product of the
system with Peyton Manning that carried over when Manning missed the 2011 season. However,
his debut season with the Redskins was a disappointment because he battled a significant
hamstring much of the season that included a couple of setbacks. In 10 games, he finished the
season with 44 catches for 633 yards and four touchdowns – numbers that would have worked
out to 70 receptions for 1,013 yards and six touchdowns, essentially identical numbers he
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produced without Manning in Indy the previous year. There has been a lot of buzz surrounding
Garcon in the Redskins’ offseason program – promises that he is going to be the player the
Redskins believed he would be last year (more like numbers of 80-1,200-9). If he can reach
those numbers, he could be a steal at this spot as a No. 3 or 4 receiver on a roster. But, in five
seasons in the NFL, he has played all 16 games just once. He tends to get the nagging type of
injuries that cause him to miss time in games and entire games. It’s his red flag, which is why he
is rated in this grouping. Like a bunch of players in this range, he is a risk/reward type who could
quickly become a value pack. STAT FACT: Garcon is the type of player who kills fantasy
owners because of big-play ability. Over the last two years, he caught 10 touchdown passes,
including scores of 88, 87, 67, and 59 yards.
30) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia
Maclin has consistently put up solid numbers in his four NFL seasons, but has never become the
85-catch, 1,200-yard receiver fantasy owners have been expecting. A full-time starter for four
years, he has yet to have a 1,000-yard season – posting totals of 56-773-4, 79-964-10, 63-859-5
and 69-857-7. He has set a bar for himself that he established and maintained. He is a piece of
the puzzle – a player who more often moves the chains on short, timing passes and not so much
as a consistent bomb threat, despite having some huge catches over the years. With question
marks at quarterback, where Michael Vick is both hot and cold as well being injury-prone, there
is never a guarantee of what you’re going to get. It could be Vick. It could be Nick Foles. It
could be Matt Barkley. With so many questions and so few answers, Maclin will likely get
drafted higher than this in most leagues (if you want him, be prepared to move him up), but it’s
hard to justify ranking him much higher despite the talent and ability to produce more than he
has in any season before. STAT FACT: When Maclin strikes, he strikes hard. Last season, he
had six games with six or more receptions. Not only did he have 90 or more yards in five of
those games, he scored a touchdown in each game in which he had 90 or more yards – giving a
double-edged sword plunge to opponents.
31) Miles Austin, Dallas
Austin has become a regular fantasy fixture in lineups across the country, but the decline in
production over the last couple of years was the result of the ascent of Dez Bryant as the top big
play threat and Jason Witten as the primary target. In 2009, Austin set career highs by exploding
on the scene with 81 catches for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. He followed that up with a
solid season in 2010 (69-1,041-7). He was on his way to another good year in 2011, but injuries
limited him to 10 games and modest numbers (43-579-7). However, spread out over 16 games,
his numbers would have projected out to 69-926-11 – numbers most fantasy owners would have
accepted. However, as Bryant emerged in 2011 as the new big play guy for Tony Romo, Austin
and his iffy hamstrings became more of an issue and his production wasn’t what it had been
previously. Make no mistake, Bryant is still a dangerous receiver and, while he’s not the type of
player who is going to be a No. 1 or even a No. 2 every-week starter like Bryant will be, he is
still capable of big games. But, when you’re the third target behind Bryant and Witten, the
numbers just won’t be there on a week-to-week basis. STAT FACT: Austin’s production
dropped off badly in the second half of last season. In his first eight games of the season, he had
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more than 50 receiving yards in seven of eight games. In the second half of the season, he had
less than 50 receiving yards in six of eight games.
32) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco
Boldin spent years trying to emerge from the shadow of Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. But, with
Kurt Warner at the wheel for most of his seven years in Arizona, Boldin had six 1,000-yard
seasons and individual reception seasons of 101, 102, 89, 84 and 83 – despite missing games in
five of his seven seasons. When he finally got his chance to be a No. 1 receiver in Baltimore, the
problem was that he didn’t have Kurt Warner anymore, he had a young and learning Joe Flacco.
His numbers never approached what he did in Arizona – 64-837-7 in 2010, 57-887-3 in 2011 and
65-921-4 in 2012. He again missed time due to his fearless style and willingness to absorb a big
hit to make a catch. However, his performance in the postseason was a big reason why the
Ravens won the Super Bowl – in four games, he caught 22 passes for 380 yards and four
touchdowns, including 6-104-1 against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. When he was signed in free
agency by the 49ers, the thought was that he would be a veteran receiver who would likely
improve upon the numbers Randy Moss posted last year, but likely would be more in keeping
with what he posted in his three years with the Ravens. However, with Michael Crabtree out for
most if not all of the 2013 season, Boldin suddenly has been thrust into a larger role in the
offense and may have the ability to be the main wide receiver in the 49ers offense. He doesn’t
have a lot of flash and dash, but just go back and look what he did in four playoff games. He
clearly has a lot of gas left in the tank, despite turning 33 in October. STAT FACT: Boldin has
never been known as a big play receiver, more of a guy who does the dirty work over the middle.
But, in the last two seasons, he has had two of his three highest yards-per-catch average of his
10-year career. He entered 2011 with a 12.9 yard per catch average. In 2011, he averaged a
career best 15.6 yards a catch and, in 2012, averaged 14.2 yards per reception.
33) Kenny Britt, Tennessee
Perhaps no player in recent history has been more frustrating to fantasy owners than Britt, who
some owners are willing to take off their draft boards completely. As a rookie, he showed signs
of promise, catching 42 passes for 701 yards and three touchdowns. But, that would be the last
time he has played all 16 games in a season. With injuries and off-field incidents leading to
suspensions, he has missed time in each of the subsequent three seasons. In his second year in
2010, in just 12 games, he caught 42 passes for 775 yards and nine touchdowns, leading many to
believe he was ready for a big breakout season in 2011. In three games, he lived up to that
promise – catching 17 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns, but missed the remaining 13
games of the season due to injury. He returned last year, but didn’t show the same level of
promise. Despite setting a career-best with 45 interceptions, he gained just 589 yards – a 13.1
average that was 4.3 yards a reception less than his previous career average through three season.
He caught just four touchdowns, which was also a disappointment considering that, in the
previous two years, he had caught 12 TDs in 15 games. With his lack of consistent big-time
production and his penchant for getting him in trouble with the police off the field, Britt may be
the biggest gamble in this year’s fantasy draft. He has the potential to be a No. 1 receiver, but
many owners won’t even consider taking him until they already have three receivers already in
the fold. He’s been frustrating, but, if he can ever get his head right and put it all together, he
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(C)opyright 2013 Fantasy Foo

1997 Mastermind Mock Draft - Fantasy Football Mastermind

Transcription

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