State of the Automotive Finance Market First Quarter 2015

Transcription

State of the Automotive
Finance Market
First Quarter 2015
Melinda Zabritski | Sr. Director
Experian Automotive
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Session overview
Originations
 New and Used financing
 Lender and transaction types
 Loan & lease characteristics
Market overview
 Outstanding balances
 Risk distributions
 Deliqnuencies
Experian Public.
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VantageScore 3.0 ranges
Score ranges
Category
VantageScore® 3.0
Super prime
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
781 – 850
661 – 780
601 – 660
501 – 600
Deep subprime
300 – 500
Experian Public.
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INSERT
PICTURE
HERE
Experian Public.
Originations
New and used lending
5
Growing reliance upon financing
Percentage of vehicles with financing
100%
52.5%
53.5%
55.6%
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
30%
46.1%
50%
40%
84.6%
51.1%
81.1%
60%
77.6%
70%
81.7%
80%
84.9%
Used
83.4%
New
48.9%
90%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 2010
Source: Experian Automotive
Experian Public.
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Percentage of used model year vehicles without
loans
100%
90%
64.9% of all vehicles financed
in Q1 2015 were used
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
<=1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0%
Experian Public.
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Consumer leasing
35%
31.40%
30.22%
27.50%
30%
25%
24.05%
25.20%
20.6%
20%
18.6%
24.44%
11.06%
22.94%
19.8%
12.60%
15%
9.49%
26.67%
25.56%
14.34%
13.79%
10.56%
10%
Lease % of total
Lease % of new financing
5%
Lease % of all new
0%
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Experian Public.
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Leasing and consumer credit
New leasing by risk segment
Lease by vehicle type
100%
New
96.1%
Used
3.9%
90%
80%
28.19%
27.10%
49.01%
48.76%
16.35%
16.97%
6.13%
6.77%
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
70%
60%
50%
40%
Average lease scores
800
700
600
500
400
300
30%
20%
721
718
617
599
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
New
Used
10%
0%
Deep subprime
Prime
Subprime
Super prime
Nonprime
Experian Public.
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Top and bottom states for leasing
Top 10: percentage of all new vehicles leased
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
62.7%
MI
55.7% 50.7%
44.6% 44.0% 40.1%
37.5% 36.9% 34.1% 32.8%
NJ
NY
TX
WA
CT
OH
MA
CA
NH
Bottom 10: percentage of all new vehicles leased
15%
10%
10.3%
8.4%
8.1%
6.1%
5.7%
5%
4.5%
3.5%
3.4%
1.7%
1.0%
UT
AR
0%
MO
LA
MS
NM
SD
AK
WV
VT
Experian Public.
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Top 10 new models based on share of the new
lease market
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
CIVIC
2.9%
ACCORD
2.9%
2.8%
2.5%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
ALTIMA
CAMRY
COROLLA
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
1.9%
2.2%
2.0%
2.1%
RAV4
CR-V
FUSION
4.0%
3.4%
ESCAPE
EQUINOX
3.5%
2.7%
2.1%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Experian Public.
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Average score comparison on top new
leased models
750
Lease score
680
704
701
716
728
729
713
706
687
692
690
685
700
698
702
710
711
722
714
720
716
730
730
740
720
725
744
Loan score
670
660
650
CIVIC
ACCORD
ESCAPE
ALTIMA
CAMRY
COROLLA
RAV4
CR-V
EQUINOX
FUSION
Experian Public.
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Average new lease characteristics
Average monthly payment
Term distribution
70%
64.70%
$445
60%
Average term
= 36 months
$435
50%
$425
40%
$415
$405
$412
30%
25.37%
$405
$395
20%
$385
10%
9.01%
0.79%
$375
0%
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
13 - 24 25 - 36 37 - 48 49 - 60
Experian Public.
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Average payment comparison on top new leased
models
$500
Loan payment
Lease payment
$307
$289
$413
$429
$337
$326
$418
$443
$359
$428
$312
ESCAPE
$294
$426
ACCORD
$260
$200
$321
$250
$314
$300
$259
$350
$364
$400
$416
$432
$450
$150
$100
$50
$CIVIC
ALTIMA
CAMRY
COROLLA
RAV4
CR-V
EQUINOX
FUSION
Experian Public.
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Automotive finance by lender type
Q1 2015 total loan
market share
YOY change in market share
Finance
1.8%
Finance
14.46%
Credit
Union
16.94%
-1.0%
-6.6%
Captive
26.05%
7.6%
Credit Union
Bank
34.20%
BHPH
8.09%
BHPH
-1.8%
-10%
Captive
-5%
Bank
0%
5%
10%
Experian Public.
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Automotive finance by lender type
100%
90%
Q1 2015 market share by
lender type
YOY Change in market share
6.0%
Finance
4.83%
10.54%
22.46%
-18.0%
80%
70%
60%
21.95%
7.39%
40%
14.29%
20%
13.9%
49.91%
50%
30%
5.3%
Credit Union
-2.6%
Captive
-0.4%
0.16%
-6.9%
34.55%
BHPH
-1.6%
33.92%
10%
-3.2%
0%
New loan
Bank
Credit Union
BHPH
Finance
Used loan
Captive
Bank
0.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
Used
10%
20%
New
Experian Public.
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Top 20 lenders in the retail loan market
0.86%
0.86%
0.87%
0.98%
0.99%
1.15%
1.19%
1.25%
1.42%
1.53%
1.68%
2.45%
2.10%
1%
2.61%
2%
3.26%
3%
3.78%
Top 20 represent 46.6% of
all retail loans
4.42%
4.57%
4%
5.26%
5%
5.35%
6%
0%
Experian Public.
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Top 20 lenders in the NEW retail loan market
1.07%
1.14%
1.16%
1.17%
1.17%
1.21%
1.29%
1.82%
1.86%
2.03%
3.45%
2.24%
1%
3.57%
2%
4.63%
3%
5.25%
4%
6.33%
5%
all new retail loans
6.70%
6%
7.46%
7%
7.70%
8%
8.02%
9%
0%
Experian Public.
18
Top 20 lenders in the USED retail loan market
7%
0.72%
0.75%
0.76%
0.82%
0.83%
0.84%
0.91%
0.95%
0.98%
1.02%
1.11%
1.26%
1.79%
1.81%
1.93%
1%
2.87%
2%
3.16%
3%
4.30%
4%
4.48%
5%
all used retail loans
6.32%
6%
0%
Experian Public.
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Average loan credit scores by vehicle type
760
734
740
720
738
731
715
727
721
714
713
700
680
660
640
635
643
647
647
645
644
641
643
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
620
600
New
Used
580
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Experian Public.
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New loans by risk segment
100%
90%
80%
31.94%
28.87%
28.57%
70%
60%
50%
43.91%
43.44%
14.56%
16.86%
17.17%
9.53%
0.48%
Q1 2013
9.74%
0.62%
Q1 2014
10.13%
0.68%
Q1 2015
43.49%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Super Prime
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
Deep subprime
Experian Public.
21
Used loans by risk segment
100%
90%
11.45%
10.23%
10.42%
31.65%
32.55%
32.79%
80%
70%
60%
50%
19.85%
20.91%
21.17%
30.06%
29.41%
28.84%
6.99%
6.91%
6.77%
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
40%
30%
20%
Super Prime
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
Deep subprime
10%
0%
Experian Public.
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Risk distribution by lender type
Risk distribution of market share
100%
90%
20.6%
2.8%
10.7%
27.3%
17.3%
12.6%
80%
YOY change in highest risk
(<600) segment
2.9%
10.0%
3%
18.8%
2%
1.9%
70%
1%
60%
47.2%
45.3%
50%
50.8%
41.1%
0%
Bank
56.4%
40%
-1%
BHPH Captive Credit Finance
Union
-2%
-1.4%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20.9%
18.4%
22.9%
-1.9%
-2.2%
12.4%
0.8%
Bank
Deep subprime
Prime
23.2%
BHPH
12.2%
1.0%
Captive
Subprime
Super prime
11.6%
0.9%
Credit
Union
-3%
11.8%
Finance
Nonprime
-4%
-5%
-6%
-5.5%
Experian Public.
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Risk distribution by lender type
Percentage of financing
in highest risk segments (<600)
YOY change in highest risk
segments
15%
72.6%
Finance
40.0%
Credit Union
12.81%
New
Used
10%
4.34%
14.6%
5%
6.9%
0%
20.4%
Captive
Bank
BHPH Captive Credit Finance
-1.31%
-1.33%
Union
-2.08%
-1.78%
10.6%
-5%
BHPH
Used
16.2%
New
-15%
-14.23%
8.7%
0%
-4.77%
-10%
27.1%
Bank
-4.65% -4.67%
74.2%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-20%
Experian Public.
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Average financing by risk segment on new and used
vehicle loans
Average new amount financed
Average amount financed
$26,237
$25,189
$30,103
$28,882
$30,227
$29,148
$27,309
$26,497
$24,710
$24,254
Super prime
$35,000
Prime
$1,099
Nonprime
Subprime
$286
Deep subprime
$15,000
$10,000
$18,213
$
$17,927
$20,000
$28,711
$25,000
$27,612
$30,000
Q1 2014
Used
Q1 2015
$30,000
Super prime
$19,713
$19,317
Prime
$19,888
$19,533
$18,188
$17,877
Nonprime
New
$20,000
Q1 2014
$40,000
Average used amount financed
$5,000
$
$10,000
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
$15,377
$15,174
Subprime
Q1 2014
$13,629
$13,421
Deep subprime
$
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
Experian Public.
25
Average payments by risk segment on new and
used vehicle loans
Average new payment
Average monthly payment
Super prime
$600
$491
$477
$507
Nonprime
$3
$200
$355
$300
$512
$498
$503
$491
Subprime
$420
Prime
$100
Nonprime
$
New
Used
Q1 2015
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
Average used payment
Super prime
Q1 2014
$492
Deep subprime
$352
$474
$488
$500
$400
$453
Prime
$14
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
$466
Subprime
Deep subprime
$354
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
$348
$347
$344
$354
$351
$368
$367
$369
$369
$330 $335 $340 $345 $350 $355 $360 $365 $370 $375
Experian Public.
26
Average term by risk segment on new and used
vehicle loans
Average new term
Average term
68
Nonprime
67
66
Subprime
66
Deep subprime
64
1 mo
Q1 2015
68.25
67.16
71.37
70.41
71.82
71.27
71.83
71.40
Prime
67
65
61.06
60.06
Super prime
1 mo
48
60
Q1 2014
72
84
63
Average used term
62
62
61
61
60
59
60.57
60.03
Super prime
64.29
63.55
Prime
63.62
62.69
Nonprime
58
New
Q1 2014
Used
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
59.85
58.78
Subprime
Q1 2014
56.01
54.35
Deep subprime
48
60
72
84
Experian Public.
27
Distribution of loan term
Vehicle financing by term
Change in term share
100%
12.94%
16.0%
90%
18.60%
29.5%
80%
2.02%
70%
50%
61-72
-2.96%
39.3%
60%
-4.27%
39.7%
73-84
49-60
-13.20%
40%
-4.15%
24.4%
30%
37-48
9.13%
20%
21.3%
10%
0%
25-36
5.1%
3.3%
12.1%
6.3%
New
Used
37-48
49-60
61-72
-10.92%
-30%
73-84
25-36
-18.54%
-20%
-10%
0%
Change in used term
10%
20%
30%
Change in new term
Experian Public.
28
Longer term loans on used vehicles
Percentage of used financing on longer term
loans by model year
60%
61 - 72
50%
73 - 84
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Experian Public.
29
Average rate by risk segment on new and used
vehicle loans
Average new rate
Average rate
Super prime
17 bps
10.00%
9.01%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
6.49%
6.29%
Nonprime
10.96%
10.79%
13.98%
13.62%
Subprime
Deep subprime
17 bps
6.00%
9.17%
Prime
2.73%
2.68%
3.67%
3.61%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
3.00%
Average used rate
4.71%
4.00%
4.54%
5.00%
Super prime
2.00%
Prime
1.00%
Nonprime
0.00%
New
Q1 2014
Used
Q1 2015
3.34%
3.28%
Q1 2015
5.20%
5.15%
Q1 2014
9.83%
9.67%
16.58%
16.42%
Subprime
19.75%
19.53%
Deep subprime
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Experian Public.
30
INSERT
PICTURE
HERE
Experian Public.
Overall
Automotive
Finance Market
Market overview and
delinquency
31
A look at automotive loan balances
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
Experian Public.
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Open loan overview
Super prime
Subprime
Prime
Nonprime
Deep subprime
Experian Public.
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Recent automotive delinquency: 30 day delinquency
Experian Public.
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30-day delinquency balances by state
HI = 1.27%
Experian Public.
35
Recent automotive delinquency: 60 day delinquency
Experian Public.
36
60-day delinquency balances by state
HI = 0.29%
Experian Public.
37
Balances at risk
Experian Public.
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In summary
 Open balances reach all-time highs with
majority of loans/balances in prime+
 Delinquencies remain flat
 Leasing reaches all-time highs
 Modest high risk growth for new financing;
used down YOY
 Loan amounts and payments reach all-time
high for new financing
 Terms continue to lengthen while rates
creep for new and used financing
Experian Public.
39
Thank for attending
Join us for our Automotive
Market and Registration Trends
briefing on June 11, 2015
Register at:
www.experian.com/automotive
Experian Public.
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41

State of the Automotive Finance Market First Quarter 2015

Transcription

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