2015 Auto Trends NADA

Transcription

State of the Automotive Finance Market
A look at loans and leases in Q1 2016
Presented by: Melinda Zabritski | Sr. Director, Financial Solutions
www.experian.com/automotive
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company
names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Public.
Experian Public.
1
Session overview
Market Overview
 Outstanding balances
 Total risk distributions
 Delinquency
Category
Prime +
Nonprime
Subprime
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Originations
 New and Used financing
 Lender and transaction types
 Loan & lease characteristics
Score Ranges
661 – 850
601 – 660
300 – 600
2
Overall Automotive Finance Market
A look balances and delinquencies on all open
automotive loans & leases
33
A look at all open automotive balances
(loans and leases regardless of origination period)
Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
4
Open automotive loans and leases by risk segment
(loans and leases regardless of origination period with score based on
the quarter shown)
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
5
30 day delinquency on all open automotive loans and leases
6
30-day delinquency balances by state
1.36%
HI = 1.70%
7
60 day delinquency on all open automotive loans and leases
8
60-day delinquency balances by state
0.31%
HI = 0.38%
9
Originations in Q1 2016
Trends in automotive loans and leases
10
10
Automotive financing: snapshot of how and what consumers
are financing
Percentage of vehicles with financing
New
%of all new vehicles that are leased
Used
26.67%
86.3%
84.9%
55.6%
Q1 2015
55.3%
Q1 2016
Finance Market: new v used
New
31.11%
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Used % of lease market
Used
56.11%
55.99%
43.89%
44.01%
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
3.90%
3.98%
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive
11
Lender Market share
loan and lease combined
Market Share of New Financing
Captive
5.4%
5.4%
10.7%
10.6%
0.2%
0.2%
34.2%
33.8%
Credit Union Finance Co
Bank
Captive
19.9%
20.1%
23.9%
22.7%
7.2%
13.8%
BHPH
7.6%
Finance
Co
Q1 2016
15.2%
13.4%
13.6%
18.0%
Credit
Union
35.2%
Captive
Q1 2015
34.4%
BHPH
BHPH
Market Share of Used Financing
17.3%
26.2%
26.5%
Bank
7.7%
8.5%
Bank
Q1 2016
Q1 2016
34.8%
34.1%
Q1 2015
Q1 2015
49.4%
(new/used & loan/lease)
50.1%
Market Share of Total Financing
Credit Union Finance Co
12
Average consumer loan scores by vehicle type
Average new credit scores
721
Average used credit scores
671
672
674
641
642
645
593
596
718
716
714
715
716
712
713
710
All New
New Loan
All Used
Independent Used
New Lease
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2014
602
Franchise Used
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
13
Score range refresh
Note: ranges above are those used by Experian Automotive for automotive finance market analysis
and trending purposes. Other industries and lenders may use other ranges based on unique scores,
portfolio and industry trends.
14
Risk distribution of total finance market
loan and lease combined
Total (new & used) risk distribution
56.43%
56.49%
19.34%
19.85%
24.23%
23.66%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Nonprime
Prime
New risk distribution
73.18%
72.21%
17.11%
9.71%
17.60%
10.19%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Prime
Nonprime
Used risk distribution
43.18%
44.01%
21.11%
21.64%
35.71%
34.35%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Prime
Nonprime
15
Risk distribution of new leasing
loans not included
New lease risk distribution
%of new borrowers choosing leasing
36.3%
Prime
31.5%
74.91%
75.86%
34.2%
Nonprime
30.1%
16.97%
17.18%
7.17%
7.91%
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Subprime
Nonprime
Prime
27.2%
Q1 2016
22.5%
Q1 2015
Subprime
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Risk distribution of the loan market
lease is not included
Total (new & used) loan
risk distribution
53.15%
53.49%
20.37%
19.74%
26.77%
26.48%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Nonprime
Prime
New loan risk distribution
72.02%
70.76%
17.17%
10.82%
17.83%
11.41%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Prime
Nonprime
Used loan risk distribution
43.21%
43.99%
21.17%
21.70%
35.62%
34.31%
Q1 2015
Subprime
Q1 2016
Prime
Nonprime
17
Shifts within the used loan market
Subprime
Nonprime
Used Franchise loan risk distribution
Prime
54.5%
Q1 2016
52.0%
70.1%
Q1 2015
69.0%
85.3%
85.6%
Percentage of consumers by risk
tier choosing used
54.50%
55.39%
23.18%
23.53%
22.31%
21.08%
Q1 2015
Q 2016
Subprime
Nonprime
Prime
Used Independent loan risk distribution
24.83%
26.67%
18.70%
19.77%
56.47%
53.56%
Q1 2015
Q 2016
Subprime
Nonprime
Prime
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Average loan amounts
Avg new loan
amount
Q1 2015
Average loan amount by
risk tier for Q1 2016
Q1 2016
$16,124
$15,605
$20,723
Avg Independent used
$19,884
$30,032
$28,711
Average loan amount
Avg Franchise used Avg Independent
loan amount
used loan amount
Avg Franchise used
$18,501
$16,254
$13,981
$21,817
$20,644
$17,771
$30,075
$31,367
$27,733
Avg New
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
19
Average term on loans and leases
used transactions do not include leasing
Avg new term by risk tier for Q1 2016
Average new term
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
New lease
68
67
36
New loan
36
New lease
66
72
72
New loan
Prime
Nonprime
Q1 2016
62
60
56
66
68
67
Independent used
65
66
57
Franchise used
58
Franchise used
Independent used
Prime
Subprime
Avg used term by risk tier for Q1 2016
Average used term
Q1 2015
36
37
37
Nonprime
Subprime
20
Average score by loan term
Average new score by loan term
Q1 2015
773
Average used score by loan term
Q1 2016
770
753
Q1 2015
754
702
699
681
681
680
643
37 - 48
Q1 2016
49 - 60
61 - 72
73 - 84
680
659
644
37 - 48
49 - 60
657
61 - 72
660
667
73 - 84
21
For new vehicles payments rise and leasing becomes more
attractive
Average new payment
Q1 2015
Average new payment by risk tier
for Q1 2016
Q1 2016
$405
$488
$503
$411
New lease
$405
$406
$416
$497
$521
New loan
$517
New loan
New lease
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
22
Average used payments
lease not included
Average used payment by Dealer
Q1 2015
Average used payment by risk tier
for Q1 2016
Q1 2016
$334
$376
Independent
used
$368
$346
$369
$372
$351
$345
$380
Franchise used
$385
Franchise used
Independent used
Prime
Nonprime
Subprime
23
Average loan rates are showing some increases but remain
historically low
Average loan rates
Q1 2015
Average loan rate by risk tier
for Q1 2016
Q1 2016
5.48%
12.23%12.22%
11.83%
Avg Independent used
18.53%
8.03% 7.81%
Avg Franchise used
4.60%
9.12%
15.25%
4.71% 4.79%
Avg New
New
Franchise used
Independent used
Prime
3.29%
6.57%
11.03%
Nonprime
Subprime
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Summary
 Portfolio balances reach record levels as loan amounts grow to
all-time highs
 Increases in both 30 & 60-day delinquency rates rise as the
percentage of loans in the subprime portion of open portfolios grow
 Leasing surpasses 30% of all new consumer vehicle sales as
consumers across all risk tiers increasingly choose to lease
 Prime consumers also increasing choosing used vehicles resulting
in score increases, greater percentages of used financing in the
prime risk tier and lower average used rates
 Loan amounts and payments reach all-time highs for new loans
while terms continue to extend
25
Insights about the market, the vehicles
and the people who buy them
www.experian.com/automotive
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company
names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Public.
Experian Public.
26

2015 Auto Trends NADA

Transcription

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