1154_Bellevue_Ave-Set Up_

Transcription

1154_Bellevue_Ave-Set Up_
MULTI - RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
LOS ANGELES
LAS CASITAS
1154 Bellevue Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Price:
$7,700,000
Down Payment (37%) $ 2,850,000
Proposed Financing:
Buyer shall obtain a new 1st
T.D. of $4,850,000 @ 3.5% fixed for 5 years, payable
$21,779/Month. Years 6-30, the loan shall be variable
(2.25 over 6 month LIBOR) amortized over 30 years and
due in 30 years.
T. Guide Map/Grid:
No. of Units:
Unit Mix:
Bldg. Sq. Ft.:
Lot Size:
Yr. Built/Parking:
GRM/CAP:
Cost/Unit:
634 / F2
33
13-S/1, 12-S+L/1, 4-1/1, 4-1+L/1
20,310 Sq. Ft.
18,189 Sq. Ft.
2008 / 45
13.4 / 4.6%
$233,000
Features: X 2008 Year Built – Newer Construction
X
3.3% CASH on CASH Return
X
Excellent Location/Close to Downtown LA
X
Low Maintenance Building
X
No Rent Control
PROFORMA YEAR 1
CURRENT
Scheduled Gross Income:
Less Vacancy Reserve (3%):
Gross Operating Income:
Less Expenses (36%):
Net Operating Income:
Less Debt Service:
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
$573,984
($17,370)
$561,614
($205,000)
$356,614
($261,348)
Cash Flow (Pre-Tax):
$95,266
Cash on Cash Return:
3.3%
PROPERTY PHOTOGRAPHS
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
EXTERIORS
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
PROPERTY PHOTOGRAPHS
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
INTERIORS
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
PROPERTY DESCRIPTION
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
PROPERTY DESCRIPTION
The subject property is a newer Three-Story Luxury Apartment Building of
wood frame/stucco construction. The property was built in 2008 is fully
sprinklered and contains 45 parking spaces in a subterranean garage.
The unit mix consists of 13-single/one bath units, 12-single + loft/one
bath units, 4-one bedroom/one bath units and 4-one bedroom + loft/one
bath units. Unit amenities include; dishwasher, microwave oven,
refrigerator, central heat and air, balconies and patios, granite bathroom
counter tops, crown molding, and walk-in closets. Building amenities
include; courtyard, city views, laundry facilities, gated entry and parking.
AREA DESCRIPTION
The property is located on Bellevue Avenue, just west of Sunset Boulevard in
Echo Park. The property is also located just north of Downtown Los Angeles
on the East end of Echo Park.
Echo Park and Downtown is an area that is attracting successful
professionals in many different professions. This has led to a rapid rise in
rents and appreciation of property in the area.
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
MULTI - RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Unit Breakdown
#/Units
Type
Rent Range
Average Rent
13
S/1
$1,150-1,300
$1,237
12
S+L/1
$1,395-1,750
$1,302-1395
$1,583
$1,364
4
1+L/1
$1,625-1,825
$1,738
4
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
1/1
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
TENANT SUMMARY
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Unit #
Type
Current Rent
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
S/1
S/1
S/1
1/1
1/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
1/1
1/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
S/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
1+L/1
1+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
1+L/1
1+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
S+L/1
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Monthly Income
Monthly Laundry Income
Other Income
Total Monthly Income
Total Annual Income
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
Comments
1,300.00
1,176.00
1,150.00
1,378.00
1,380.00
1,250.00
1,275.00
1,275.00
1,200.00
1,302.96
1,395.00
1,395.00
1,200.00
1,166.00
1,195.00
1,195.00
1,300.00
1,395.00
1,595.00
1,825.00
1,625.00
1,580.00
1,550.00
1,680.00
1,595.00
1,775.00
1,725.00
1,550.00
1,425.00
1,750.00
1,580.00
1,750.00
1,550.00
Manager
$ 47,482.96
$
350.00
$ 47,832.96
$573,984.96
EXPENSES
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Projected Annual Expenses
Real Estate Taxes:
$96,250
Property Insurance:
$ 6,504
Management (On-Site):
$21,000
Management (Off-Site):
$22,465
Water & Sewer:
$19,409
Electricity:
$ 5,261
Gas
:
$ 4,820
Janitorial Service & Landscape:
$ 2,500
Pest Control:
$
Trash:
$ 2,500
Telephone:
$ 2,500
Replacements:
$ 6,500
Maintenance/Repairs:
$11,400
Miscellaneous Expenses:
$ 3,351
TOTAL EXPENSES:
Expenses (% of Income)
Expense (per Unit / per Bldg. Sq. Ft.)
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
540
$205,000
36%
$6,212 / $10.09
RENT SURVEY
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Property Address
Unit Type
Rental Rate
1/1
$1,749-2,099
2/2
$2,240-2,395
S/1
$1,551-1,836
1/1
$2,100
1/1.5
$2,165-2,213
S/1
$1,500
1/1
$1,675-1,860
2/2
$2,330
S/1
$1,529
1/1
$1,752
2/2
$2,395
S/1
$1,500
1/1
$1,750
Year built: 2010
2/2
$2,300
Pegasus Apartments
612 S. Flower St.
Los Angeles, CA 90017
S/1
$1,715-1,940
1/1
$2,195
Year built: 1949
2/1
$2,645-2,815
The Orsini
505 N. Figueroa St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Year built: 2003
Canvas LA Apartments
138 N. Beaudry Ave.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Year built: 2007
Mozaic
888 N. Alameda St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Year built: 2006
The Medici
722 S. Bixel St.
Los Angeles, CA 90017
Year built: 2002
Visconti
1221 W. 3rd St.
Los Angeles, CA 90017
Amenities
D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Gym,
Pool, Resident Lounge
D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Gym,
Pool, Resident Lounge
D/W, M/W, W/D, B/P, Pool,
Gym, Resident Lounge, Spa
D/W, M/W, WD, B/P, Gym,
Pool, Residents’ Lounge
DW, M/W, B/P, Pool,
Business Center
L, A/C, M/W, B/P
SUBJECT PROPERTY
Average Rent
Las Casitas
1154 Bellevue
Los Angeles, CA 90012
Year built: 2008
S/1
$1,237
S+L/1
$1,583
1/1
$1,364
1+L/1
$1,738
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
D/W, M/W, L, B/P
Picture
RENT SURVEY MAP
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
SALES COMPARABLES
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Sale
Date
Sale Price
Year
Built
Approx.
Bldg. Sq Ft
No. of
Units
Cost
Per Sq Ft
Cost
Per Unit
GRM
CAP
Echo Ten Thirty Lofts
1030 N. Alvarado St.
Los Angeles, CA 90026
OTM
$9,300,000
2010
27,539
20+3
$337.46
$404,348
13
5.4%
Park Catalina Apartments
690 S. Catalina Ave.
Los Angeles, CA 90005
6/12
$23,650,000
2002
83,000
90
$284.94
$262,778
12.1
4.4%
Brockman Lofts
530 W. 7th Street
Los Angeles, CA 90014
3/12
$38,750,873
2004
115,117
80
$336.62
$484,386
N/A
N/A
1752 N. Kingsley Dr.
Los Angeles, CA 90027
3/12
$4,177,000
2007
19,881
13
$210.10
$321,303
12.1
5.75%
Glo Apartments
1050 Wilshire Blvd.
Los Angeles, CA 90017
12/11
$64,700,000
2008
187,667
201
$344.26
$321,891
14.2
4.2%
Hikari Apartments
325 E. 2nd St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
12/11
$37,750,000
2006
94,079
128
$401.26
$294,922
14.3
4.5%
Sakura Crossing
235 S. San Pedro St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
12/11
$61,750,000
2009
166,469
230
$370.94
$268,478
14.4
4.5%
$326.51
$336,872
13.4
4.8%
$379.12
$233,000
13.4
4.6%
Address of Property/Unit Mix
Averages
SUBJECT PROPERTY
Las Casitas
1154 Bellevue Avenue
Los Angeles, CA 90012
OTM
$7,700,000
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
2008
20,310
33
SALES COMPARABLE MAP
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
MAPS
1154 BELLEVUE AVENUE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90012
AERIAL VIEW
PLAT MAP
APN: 5405-030-011
Michel Hibbert, CCIM
Senior Managing Director
Investment Services Group
(310) 996-2235
[email protected]
Lic. #00893133
:Set Up\1154 Bellevue Ave\2012-[9.26.12-mdg]
Downtown Los Angeles Submarket
■
POPULATION
43,343
■
AREA
5.8 square miles (Land Area)
■
AVERAGE SIZE/HOUSEHOLD
1.6
■
POPULATION GROWTH
52.12% (Increase from 2000-2011)
■
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
$30,056
25 Years of Age or Over:
■
EDUCATION
High School Graduates….......…….......…... 22.1%
Bachelor Degree…….....………………........ 16.6%
D OWNTOWN L OS A NGELES - D ESCRIPTION
Downtown’s residential growth has been unprecedented since the Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in
2001 with 7,000 units completed. The growth is expected to generate approximately 36,400 jobs
and $5.4 billion in revenue.
This revitalization includes: the construction of icons such as Staples Center, LA Convention Center,
L.A. Live, the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels, and the Walt Disney Concert Hall; the building of
thousands of residential units both new and adaptive reuse; the establishment of business
improvement districts, the opening of several five-star and more casual sit-down restaurants; the
extension of the subway, light-rail and commuter train systems, which makes Downtown the center
of public transit for the regional labor pool. Downtown Los Angeles has transformed to a vibrant
hub that is truly in a renaissance.
The Downtown population of residents, employees and visitors has grown and matured these past
several years due to the sheer number of newly opened residential units, residents, nightspots, highend grocery stores and the much anticipated L.A. Live entertainment complex and other amenities
and activities that have emerged. Over the past 10 years, Downtown Los Angeles has experienced
an extraordinary commercial and residential renaissance. With approximately 40,000 residents, a
weekday population of about 500,000 people and 10 million annual visitors, Downtown Los Angeles
is an economic engine for Southern California.
TRANSPORTATION
Los Angeles is home to one of the country’s best
public transportation networks, which includes
subways, light-rails, buses and shuttles to just about
every corner of the Greater Los Angeles Area.
Locally, Downtown Los Angeles is the most
accessible region in Los Angeles County and is
served
by
Los
Angeles
Department
of
Transportation’s (LADOT) Dash system with 6
weekday and 3 weekend routes. Metro Rail, MTA’s
light rail & subway system, and has four separate
but connected lines, and three of these lines (Red,
Blue, Gold) end in the Downtown area. Red and
Gold Lines terminate at Union Station, and the Blue
Line terminates at 7 th St./Metro.
Downtown Los Angeles submarket serves as an
integral freeway hub for commuters. The Santa
Monica Freeway (Interstate 10) runs along the
southern boundary of the submarket, allowing commuters to travel to Culver City and Santa
Monica to the west and intersects with several freeways that lead into Eastern Los Angeles
and the Inland Empire. The Pasadena Freeway (Interstate 110), located along the western
boundary of the submarket, allows commuters to travel to Westmont and Torrance to the
south and Pasadena to the north. Interstate 5, which runs through the northern part of the
Downtown submarket, joins several freeways to the east and turns into the Hollywood
Freeway (Highway 101) to the northwest, providing access to the San Fernando Valley.
There are three major airports in close
proximity to Downtown Los Angeles. Bob
Hope Airport in Burbank is 12 miles north
from Downtown Los Angeles and offers
commercial flights throughout the United
States. Similar to the Bob Hope Airport, the
Long Beach Airport offiers commercial
flights
throughout the western United
States and is 16 miles from Downtown Los
Angeles. For international travel, Los
Angeles International Airport is located 15
miles south west from Downtown Los Angeles. Nearly 9 million travelers passes through LAX
every year, and the airport was recently ranked as one of the best in terms of on-time
performance and is known to be one of the busiest airports in the nation.
NOTABLE LOCATIONS
L.A. Live/Staples Center is a 4 million-square-foot/$2.5
billion Downtown Los Angeles sports, residential &
entertainment district adjacent to the Los Angeles
Convention Center. This area also features a 54-story,
1,000-room convention hotel, Club Nokia, L.A. Live, a
2,200 capacity live music venue, a 14-screen Regal
Cineplex, a broadcast facility for ESPN along with
entertainment, restaurant and office space. Staples
Center opened its doors on October 17, 1999 and in
each of its first two years, Staples Center received
the prestigious Pollstar-CIC Arena of the Year Award. Staples Center is also host to over 250
events and has nearly 4 million visitors a year.
Pershing Square was originally established in 1866,
redesigned in the 1950’s and again in the early
1990’s. Pershing Square is now an outdoor concert
and event center in the heart of Downtown Los
Angeles. The park is exactly one square block in size
bounded by 5 th Street to the north, 6 th Street to the
south, Hill Street to the east, and Olive Street to the
west.
Historic Core Neighborhood is located in Downtown
Los Angeles between Hill Street and Main Street on
the west and east, and 3 rd Street and 9 th Street on
the north and south. It is a heavily residential
neighborhood and many of those residences are
adaptive reuse loft units created from formerly
vacant historic commercial and office buildings.
Furthermore, it has maintained an artistry vibe to the
area and is home to the Downtown Los Angeles
Artwalk.
Echo Park Submarket
■
POPULATION
46,192
■
AREA
2.4 square miles (Land Area)
■
AVERAGE SIZE/HOUSEHOLD
2.8
■
POPULATION GROWTH
-8.4% (Increase from 2000-2011)
■
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
$38,836
25 Years of Age or Over:
■
EDUCATION
High School Graduates….......…….......…... 16.8%
Bachelor Degree…….....………………........ 20.2%
E CHO P ARK - D ESCRIPTION
Echo Park is a neighborhood 2 miles northwest of Downtown Los Angeles and 4 miles southeast of
Hollywood. The neighborhood has been subject to a major gentrification over the past decade as
many artists and professionals move into the area due to its close proximity to Hollywood and
Downtown Los Angeles. Major thoroughfares such as Echo Park Boulevard, Sunset Boulevard, Glendale
Boulevard and Alvarado Street are lined with trendy commercial retail such as cafes, coffee houses, art
galleries, clothing stores, boutiques and restaurants.
Echo Park was named one of the Top 10 Great
Neighborhoods in 2008 by The American Planning
Association (APA). Echo Park was chosen due to “it’s
historic
architecture,
topography,
walkable
breathtaking
and
hillside
pedestrian-friendly
streets, and engaged residents who have worked
hard to protect and preserve the community. The
area features preserved craftsman-style homes, as
well as modern architecture, great schools, parks
and libraries. Echo Park is also home to the annual
Lotus Festival, the Cuban Festival, and Historic Filipinotown.
Lotus Festival, a pan-Asian celebration complete with Chinese dragon boat races, has been
held since 1972 and showcases different Asian ethnicity every year. The program was
“designed to create in the Southern California community an increased awareness of the
contributions to our culture by Asian Americans”, stated in the 1973 second annual program. In
previous years, the festival showcases a wide range of diverse musical acts and performers that
mirror the Asian demographics of the City of Los Angeles and Pacific region.
ECONOMY – Los Angeles County
“Los Angeles County lagged its neighbor counties in recovery from the Great Recession over the
past two years, but it finally gathered momentum in 2012,” reported the Los Angeles County
Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) in its 2012-2013 Mid-Year economic forecasts. “The
monthly unemployment rate fell by two percentage points in less than a year from the cyclical
peak of 13.2% in July 2011 to 11.2% in May 2012. The overall rate of job growth picked up slightly
during the second quarter of this year, while a number of industries experienced an uptick in
activity and more robust job growth.” Los Angeles is certainly the economic driver of California,
and dominates the southern portion of the state with its huge economy as well as its sheer size.
However, as the city struggles to regain its footing, the rest of the state has catching up to do.
“California struggles to recover lost jobs,” the Los Angeles Business Journal reported July 11th.
Using seasonally adjusted figures, this source reports that “nine states and the District of Columbia
have recovered all of the jobs they lost during the recession, but 41 other states, including the
Golden State, still haven’t bounced back.”
The latest Current Employment Survey (CES)
data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
show a small gain, but a gain nonetheless, for
seasonally
unadjusted
non-farm
employment. Data from May 2011 to May
2012 show a gain of 42,400 payroll jobs (1.1%)
in Los Angeles County. As noted in earlier Reis
Observer coverage, the self-employed are a
large portion of the LA workforce and CES
data does not include them. According to
household-based data from the BLS, which
includes
these
non-employees,
the
employment gains are much smaller, with
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
the number of employed residents of Los
Angeles County rising by just 24,300 (0.6%) in the year to May 2012, implying that perhaps many of
these former free lancers may have finally been taken on as employees. According to the
LAEDC, “the aerospace and technology sector includes manufacturing and service industries in
aerospace, information technology, electronics, and biomedical technology,” and these
industries accounted for 4.7% of non-farm jobs in Los Angeles County in 2011.
Meanwhile,” activity in the entertainment industry continues to improve,” the LAEDC reports. From
May 2011 to May 2012, according to CES data, payroll employment increased by 5,100 (2.7%) in
the Information Sector, led by a gain of 5,200 (4.3%) in the Motion Picture and Sound Recording
industry. It should be noted, however, that Film L.A—which coordinates permits for filmed
entertainment shot in the area, announced in early July that “overall on-location production
slipped slightly last quarter compared to the same period last year.”
The Financial Activities sector added 4,900 jobs (2.3%) year-over-year as of May, and Professional
and Business Services employment increased by 18,300 (3.4%). The latter includes an increase of
10,300 (12.3%) in the Employment Services industry, which includes temporary workers.
Manufacturing continues to lose ground. This sector lost another 5,800 jobs (1.6%) and
Transportation and Warehousing was barely positive with 600 (0.4) jobs gained. Wholesale Trade
saw a similarly anemic performance, gaining 400 jobs (0.2%) through May 2012. There was
welcome news in the Construction sector; however, as 3,100 jobs (3.0%) jobs were added yearover-year in May. Public works have been active, as The Source reported in April that the Los
Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority certified “the Final Environmental Impact
Statement/Report (EIS/EIR) for the $1.37- billion Regional Connector Transit Corridor Project that
will connect three light rail lines through Downtown Los Angeles.” According to Curbed LA, once
completed, the Connector will allow people “to train travel across the County without transfers,”
one of the city’s long–sought goals, the Food and Beverage Store industry added 3,200 jobs
(3.7%) and the big-box General Merchandise Stores industry added 2,200 jobs (3.4%). All in all,
total Private Employment increased by 50,600 jobs (1.6%).
Los Angeles Employment by Sector
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MARKET EVALUATION
Market Trends – Los Angeles County
The 764,786-unit market-rate investment grade Los Angeles rental apartment market remains one of the
nation’s premier multifamily markets, with low vacancy and high rents. Demand is strong, rents continue
to grow (although not as much as first quarter 2012) and the city retains its edge as a high-end residence
location for a broad spectrum of the rental market.
OCCUPANCY
Reis reports a second quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 3.6%, down 10 basis points from the prior quarter, and
80 from a year earlier. The current Class A rate is 4.8%, up 10 basis points over the quarter but down 70
basis points year-over-year. The Class B/C market has a 3.0% vacancy rate, down 30 basis points for the
quarter, and down 90 basis points over twelve months. Measured at year-end, the overall vacancy rate
for this market had varied between 2.0% and 5.3% in recent years, well below the U.S. and West Region
averages.
In their third quarter 2012 report, Marcus & Millichap states “the countywide vacancy rate will decline 50
basis points year-over-year to 3.4%.” This source noted that “an economic recovery and shaky housing
market have broadened demand for rental units in Los Angeles County. Over the last year, countywide
vacancy improved 80 basis points to 3.6%.” According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s 2012 Multifamily Property
Forecast, “vacancy, which is below the national average, is likely to drop further” and that the market “is
registering 96% to 97% occupancy.” Reis reports a national average of 4.7% and a West region average
of 4.0%, so Los Angeles is outperforming its national and regional peers. Vacancy is forecast to fall even
further, according to Reis, reaching 3.1% by year-end 2012 and increasing only slightly in the years to
follow, indicating a market with effectively full occupancy for the foreseeable future.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Demand slowed in the second quarter of 2012, Reis reports, but a substantial 1,236 units of net absorption
were still recorded. The total for first quarter was 2,244, bringing the mid-year total to 3,480 units, not quite
halfway to the 2011 mark of 8,910 units, which was the highest in over 10 years. After averaging just over
1,540 units from 2000 to 2010, 2011 was a standout performance, especially after the negative net
absorption reported in both in 2008 and 2009 because of the recession. Indeed, the years 2010 (6,736
units of net absorption) and 2011 could be seen as marking the end of this market’s inconsistent demand
profile.
As of this report date, new constructions data from Reis indicate just over 800 units in eight projects have
completed, leaving more 7,201 units under construction. Of these about 1,000 currently have 2012
completion dates. New construction has been uneven lately, with the 1,680 units built in 2011
overshadowed by 4,000 in 2010. Prior years saw both higher and lower totals; the current inventory is
within 2,500 units of the amount recorded at the end of 2010. According to Marcus & Millichap, “in the
past 12 months, 1,262 units were completed, a 0.2% addition to total inventory. In the previous year-long
stretch, builders added about 2,800 rentals.” This source reports that “over 2,600 units are currently under
way in the county, and more than 19,500 are in the planning pipeline.” According to Jones Lang LaSalle,
“while development is resuming, demand exceeds current supply and this is expected to continue in
2012.”
Looking forward, Reis sees a similar scenario, estimating about 1,800 new units for 2012, largely
overmatched by 7,867 units of net absorption. This is a huge difference for any market. Construction and
demand is forecast to be more closely aligned through the remaining years of the Reis forecast. For the
entire 2012 to 2016 period the predicted totals are 21,010 units of new supply and 25,585 units of net
absorption.
RENTS
Rents continued to rise in the second quarter,
Apartment Rent Trends
reflecting the continued tightness of the Los Angeles
apartment
market.
The
average
asking
rent
increased 0.7% to $1,435 per month, while the
average effective rent rose 0.9% to $1,396 per
month. The year-over-year increases are 2.4% and
3.0%, respectively. Rents lost much ground in 2009
and were flat in 2010 as the Great Recession took its
toll. The second quarter average asking rent for Class
A units was $1,806 per month, up 0.5% for the
quarter, and 2.5% year-over-year. The $1,234 per
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
month asking average for Class B/C units is up 0.8% over three months and 2.2% year-over-year. “With
vacancy at a historically low level, operators are charting more significant rent growth. In the most recent
12 months, asking rents rose 2.2% to $1,405 per month. Effective rents grew at a more accelerated pace
of 2.7% in the same time frame, to average $1,358 per month,” according to Marcus & Millichap. “Class A
asking rents were raised more aggressively in the past year, posting a 3.3% jump to $1,785 per month. In
the Class B/C sector, asking rents edged up 2.0% to $1,220 per month. During the corresponding period
last year, Class A and Class B/C rents grew at rates of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively,” according to this
source. Rents are well positioned in the midpoint of 2012. Although the large annual increases that
appeared in the course of the 2000s are not forecast to return, market observers are virtually unanimous
in stating that rents are high and set to go higher. Reis forecasts annual increases of 3.7% and 4.6% for
asking and effective rents in 2012, with similar gains to follow. “In 2012, asking rents will rise 3.2% to $1,429
per month, while effective rents advance 4.4% to $1,392 per month,” Marcus & Millichap predicts.
Multifamily Market Overview – Downtown LA/Echo Park
Vacancy Rates: There has been a slight increase in vacancy for Echo Park, ending the 2nd quarter 2012
with 3.1%. The Downtown Los Angeles submarket recorded an overall average vacancy rate of 4.8% in
the 2nd quarter 2012, up from 4.7% a year earlier.
Rental Rates: Average rental rates in Echo Park rose over the 12-month period ending 2nd quarter 2012,
rising from $1,215 to $1,289. In Downtown Los Angeles, average rental rates rose from $1,779 to $1,827
over a 12-month period ending the 2nd quarter 2012.
Investment: In the first half of 2012, Downtown LA/Echo Park witnessed 8 multifamily transactions that
closed with a total volume of approximately $55 million. The eight buildings totaled 238,499 square feet
and the average price per square foot equated to $230.67 per square foot.
Source: REIS, Costar, LAEDC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pitney Bowes Business Insight