Leasing Industry 2011 Results

Leasing Industry 2011 Results
Polish Leasing Association
Press Conference
31st January 2012
InterContinental Hotel
Warsaw
List of Polish Leasing Association Members
BAWAG Leasing & Fleet Sp. z o.o.
BGś Leasing Sp. z o.o.
BNP Paribas Lease Group Sp. z o.o.
BRE Leasing Sp. z o.o.
BZ WBK Finanse & Leasing S.A.
Caterpillar Financial Services Poland Sp. z o.o.
De Lage Landen Leasing Polska S.A.
Deutsche Leasing Polska S.A.
DnB Nord Leasing Sp. z o.o.
Getin Leasing S.A.
Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A.
Handlowy-Leasing S.A.
IKB Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
ING Lease (Polska) Sp. z o.o.
Kredyt Lease S.A.
Masterlease Polska S.A.
Mercedes-Benz Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
Millennium Leasing Sp. z o.o.
NOMA 2 Sp. z o.o.
Nordea Finance Polska S.A.
ORIX Polska S.A.
PEKAO Leasing Sp. z o.o.
PKO Leasing (BFL S.A.)
Raiffeisen Leasing Polska S.A.
Scania Finance Polska Sp. z o.o.
SG Equipment Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
SGB-Trans-Leasing PTL Sp. z o.o.
Siemens Finance Sp. z o.o.
VB Leasing Polska S.A.
VB Real Estate Services Polska S.A.
VFS Usługi Finansowe Polska Sp. z o.o.
Volkswagen Leasing Polska Sp. z o.o.
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association
Leasing Market
Leasing Industry 2011Results (1)
Total number of assets financed by leasing companies
I-IX 2010
Vehicles
Passenger delivery cars
Trucks
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Movables - total
Real estate
Leasing + loans
I-IX 2011
I-IX 11 /
I-IX 10
X-XII 2010
X-XII 2011
X-XII 11 / XXII 10
I-XII 2010
I-XII 2011
I-XII 11 /
I-XII 10
10 091
12 081
19,7%
5 807
4 793
-17,5%
15 898
16 874
6,1%
6 809
6 920
1,6%
3 974
2 645
-33,5%
10 783
9 565
-11,3%
2 876
4 623
60,7%
1 485
2 058
38,6%
4 361
6 681
53,2%
406
538
32,7%
348
91
-73,9%
754
629
-16,6%
6 118
299
470
112
7 790
415
754
214
27,3%
3 007
189
171
99
24,3%
166,9%
8 536
464
650
149
10 797
605
925
313
26,5%
91,4%
2 418
165
179
37
110,1%
17 090
21 254
24,4%
8 606
8 259
-4,0%
25 696
29 513
14,9%
1 018
931
-8,5%
577
697
21,0%
1 595
1 629
2,1%
18 108
22 186
22,5%
9 183
8 956
-2,5%
27 291
31 142
14,1%
39,0%
60,4%
14,9%
-4,6%
30,4%
42,4%
2011 saw the continuation of greater activity on the movable property leasing
market, which was observed from March 2010. This market grew by 14.9% last
year, after 22.8% increase In financed movable assets In 2010 (due in large
part to a low crisis base in 2009).
Machinery remained the second pillar of growth. This is an indication of an
already high exploitation of production power in manufacturing firms (80.4%at
the end of Q4 in 2011) and the continuing good level of sold production in
industry.
Greater activity on the movable
property leasing market indicates a constant tendency and was in regard to
majority of segments. The main pillars of growth In 2011 were transport
vehicles and machinery.
Ending of deductions for Vat on passenger vehicles together with homologation
for transport vehicles impacted significantly on the results on light vehicles in the
fourth quarter of last year. The value of financed vehicles in this sector dropped
by 33.5% and due foremost to the leasing of transport and delivery vehicles up
to 3.5 tons (-74.4% yr/yr), with vehicles being reported are those with floor
grating.
The very good results of transport vehicles leasing was a reflection of the
market In transport vehicles and the improving financial condition of of transport
firms, as well as the low base from the first half of 2009. The segment’s
dynamism, despite a halt in second half of 2011, however, remained high.
Value of machinery financed by leasing firms in 2011 was significantly
supported by loans.
Q4 of 2011 brought a clear reflection on the real property leasing market, which
In effect saw the entire year finishing with a minimal increase.
Leasing Industry 2011Results (2)
Total number of assets financed by leasing
companies
`
Vehicles
Passenger delivery cars
Trucks
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Movables - total
Real estate
Leasing - total
I-IX 2010
I-IX 2011
I-IX 11 /
I-IX 10
X-XII 2010
X-XII 2011
X-XII 11 / XXII 10
I-XII 2010
I-XII 2011
I-XII 11 /
I-XII 10
10 024
11 780
17,5%
5 668
4 626
-18,4%
15 692
16 406
4,5%
6 780
6 729
-0,8%
3 942
2 586
-34,4%
10 722
9 315
-13,1%
2 838
4 564
60,8%
1 455
1 951
34,1%
4 293
6 515
51,7%
406
487
20,2%
272
89
-67,2%
677
576
-14,9%
4 652
283
459
111
6 033
405
748
213
29,7%
2 195
183
169
98
9,6%
166,4%
6 654
447
630
148
8 228
588
917
312
23,7%
92,8%
2 002
164
171
37
111,2%
15 528
19 179
23,5%
8 043
7 271
-9,6%
23 571
26 450
12,2%
1 018
693
-31,9%
401
560
39,6%
1 420
1 254
-11,7%
16 546
19 872
20,1%
8 444
7 832
-7,3%
24 990
27 704
10,9%
43,3%
63,0%
11,4%
-1,2%
Source: ZPL
31,6%
45,6%
Leasing Industry 2011Results
Assets financed with leasing (3)
I-IX 2010
Vehicles
Passenger delivery cars
Trucks
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Movables - total
I-XII 2010
I-XII 2011
I-XII 11 /
I-XII 10
301
350,5%
138
167
20,8%
205
469
128,2%
191
550,3%
32
59
82,8%
62
250
306,0%
37
59
57,9%
30
107
259,9%
67
166
147,2%
77
2
-97,8%
77
53
-31,4%
19,8%
812
7
2
0
95,2%
769,2%
1 882
17
20
1
2 569
17
8
1
36,5%
-50,8%
416
1
8
0
32,9%
563
988
75,3%
2 126
3 063
44,1%
175
137
-21,7%
175
375
114,1%
739
1 125
52,3%
2 301
3 438
49,4%
0
51
1 757
10
6
1
1 562
2 075
0
238
1 562
2 313
Other machines
and devices 5%
Building
machinery 9%
Machines for food
industry 2%
Machinery for
plastics
production and
metalwork 6%
Printing
machinery 5%
X-XII 11 / XXII 10
X-XII 2011
29
Machines financed by loans
Medical
equipment 12%
X-XII 2010
67
1 466
16
12
1
Real estate
Loans - total
I-IX 11 /
I-IX 10
I-IX 2011
Agricultural
machinery 61%
-36,8%
-44,8%
48,1%
633,3%
-77,0%
-0,6%
-58,1%
-30,5%
Combined assets financed by loans amount to 11% of the total production of
leasing firms. This share was 8.4% in 2010.
Purchases of machinery continue to be the main type of investment financed by
loans. However, the share of machinery in total production is not so dominant:
74.7% last year (72.2% in Q4) compared to 81.8% in 2010.
More vehicles are financed by loans: 2.8% of total production in this segment in
2011 compared to 1.3% in 2010. As a result, vehicles already constitute 13.6% of
production subject to loans. Loans started to be important for the real estate sector
where they already finance 23% of total production.
Farmers taking advantage of European funds translates into a dominant share in
agricultural machinery in the structure of machines financed by loans
.
Source: ZPL
Leasing Company 2011 Results
High market representation is already responsible for
14% increase in the value of assets financed by
leasing firms In 2011.
3 500
220%
3 161
Assetsaktywa
financed
by leasing firms
in 2011
(PLN
Łączne
sfinansowane
w 2011
r. [mln
zł] m)
Sales change
YOY
Zmiana
sprzedaŜy
r/r
2 812
3 000
170%
2 551
2 500
119%
1 914
1 671
2 000
120%
1 536
1 460
1 500
14%
1 200
70%
16%
-3%
500
1 341
34%
32%
1 000
1 376
1%
-14%
20%
11%
et
in
G
Le
as
i
ng
G
VB
IN
Pe
ka
o
K
W
B
B
Z
B
FL
)
O
Le
as
in
g
(d
.
en
ni
um
M
ill
PK
R
E
B
ei
se
n
-30%
R
ai
ff
Lower turnover on the real estate segment saw its
reflection on the combined results of companies
engaged more in that sector in 2010 (Millennium,
Pekao).
Good results in 2011 are shown In the participation
of firms with a more corporate character, which to a
greater degree benefitted from the revival of
investments among medium and larger sized firms.
7%
0
EF
L
Data for first half of year also showed that 7 firms
increased their turnover above 60% for the year, and
as many as 12 firms above 50%. Results for the
entire 2011 are more balanced with only 3 firms
increasing their value of financed assets by more
than 50%.
This year’s dynamism was also impacted by the
scale of participation of firms In the financing of cars
with floor grating purchases in the second half of
2010.
Smaller and medium sized leasing firms note a
greater pace of development. Sales in five leading
firms during 2010 increased In that year by 7.0% in
the movable property sector while this increase for
the remaining part of the market amounts to 20.4%
yr/yr.
Source: ZPL
Leasing Industry 2011 Results – Real Estate
Real estate leasing market structure
Hotels and
recreation
centres
Other
Industrial
buildings
Real estate leasing market structure - companies share
BZ WBK
4,1%
EFL
1,1%
Pozostali
16,0%
ING
28,1%
BNP Paribas
4,1%
Offices
Commercial and
service centres
Immoconsult
5,1%
Raiffeisen
8,5%
PKO Leasing (d.
BFL)
10,4%
BRE
22,6%
Value of real property leased in 2011 amounted to PLN1.629 mln, which shows an increase of 2.1% during the year.
Last year’s positive market dynamics was achieved foremost because of the last quarter period when real property was financed In the amount of PLN 697
mln (increase of 21,0% yr/yr), which constituted 43% of the annual production.
In 2011 there was a minimal increase in the average value of transactions by 6.0% to an amount of PLN5,81 mln. It is in fact lower In comparison with
previous years: average value for 2004-2009 is PLN14,83 mln.
Number of reported agreements in 2011 remained at a comparable level with respect to previous year: 239 in comparison with 248.
Market for leasing real property remains strongly concentrated. We estimate that 61% of transactions in terms of value (68% in terms of numbers) were
concluded by three leading firms. During the entire year of 2010 this indicator for turnover value amounted to 51% and 65% for the number of transactions.
ING remains the market leader and its dominance over the next two firms is not so clear as it was in 2010.
Loans have an ever greater significance In the financing of real property. They helped finance 23% of the assets in 2011 while in the entire year of 2010 their
participation amounted to 11%. The market structure is dominated by commercial and services objects as well as by industrial buildings.
.
Source: ZPL
Currency Structure of New Production on Leasing Market
Structure
In 2011 analogically as in earlier years, financing in PLN dominated the structure of new production for leasing of movable property. There was in fact ,
however, an increase in share of leasing in foreign currencies: from 16,0% in 2010 to 23.7% last year. In case of loan financing this increase was not so
clear: from 11.2% in 2010 to 13.8% in 2011.
In the following quarterly periods of 2010 and 2011 we see a gradual increase of interest In leasing financing of movable fixed assets in foreign currency.
Inasmuch as in the first half of 2010 the share of this leasing amounted to 14.7% and in second half of 2010 to 17.0%, in first half of 2011 it was already
23.0% and 24.3% in second half of last year.
Share of foreign currencies in investment purchases in the fourth quarter of 2011 in the amount of 25.1% neared to the record level of 32.3% achieved in
Q4 of 2008. This show that entrepreneurs are ever more clearly exposing their credits on foreign currency markets.
Historically leasing of real property was financed to a large extent In foreign currency. Beginning In 2008 there is an increase In the share of zloty In the
financing of this segment. This process was significantly increased last year when already 56% of real property leasing transactions was financed in
PLN. In 2010 foreign currency leasing was still dominant, financing 60% of real property production.
Source: ZPL
Leasing and Investment between 2004 and 2011
45
50%
40
35
34%
28%
30
31,1
27,3
14,2
14%
23,0
21,8
20
60%
17,0%
17%
30%
15,2%
20%
15%
14,1%
13,1%
0%
1%
13%
12,4%
-10%
-30%
-20%
5
11%
11,8%
12,6%
10,5%
-30%
0
9%
-40%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2004
2011
350
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20%
Inwestycje
total investments
ogółem
(PLN bn)
[mld zł]
dynamics of capital investments y/y
dynamika
nakładów inw. r/r
14,9%
300
15%
17,6%
250
150
of investments
financed
by leasing altogether
%%inwestycji
ogółem
sfinansowanych
leasingiem
10%
19%
16,3
10
200
19%
50%
40%
32,9
15%
25
15
32,6
Leasing
marketogółem
– total (PLN
Rynek
leasingu
[mldbn)
PLN]
change
zmiana
r/ry/y
241
217
6,4%
120
219
216
192
6,5%
155
8,7%
10%
9,6%
131
5%
100
0%
50
-1,2%
-0,2%
0
-5%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
In 2004-2007 the average annual leasing market increase amounted to 32%,
significantly exceeding the investment dynamics in the economy at the level of 11%.
The effect of this was a significant increase in the leasing share of financing
investments.
In 2008 the leasing market reacted in advance to the arrival of the economic
slowdown, with a drop in turnover noted already in May 2008 while 2009 saw the
collapse of the leasing market.
Relatively low decreases In investment In 2009 and 2010 were thanks to public
investments in infrastructure co-financed from EU funds. Private investments had
their start only in the second half of 2010.
Development of leasing market observed since 2010 shows the gradual increase in
the leasing penetration indicator of investments. It already exceeded the average
level of that indicator for Europe which was estimated at 12.6% in 2010. However, it
is still significantly lower than in 2007.
In 2011 the leasing market did not yet exceed the level of financing in the years 2008
and 2009. Investments in the economy are already higher than before the slowdown.
Source: ZPL, GUS
Investment Financing – Leasing vs Investment Loans
80
70
25%
25%
Value of aktywnego
the active portfolio
Wartość
portfela–- movables
ruchomości
Change in comparison to the previous period
zmiana do poprzedniego okresu
60
16,2%
50
47,7
47,3
45,4
43,9
48,0
47,8
56,6
60
15%
50
56,5
54,9
49,8
53,4
55,3
10%
40
5%
30
5,2%
10,2%
30
-1,4%
-0,9%
-3,9%
20
0%
0,5%
10
-5%
15%
9,4%
10%
13,7%
3,6%
5%
0,9%
20
10
-2,8%
1,8%
-2,8%
0%
-0,2%
0
0
-10%
90
2007.12
2008.06
2008.12
2009.06
2009.12
2010.06
2010.12
80
2011.06
2007.12
79
79bn
mld
90%
80%
60
70%
60%
50
50%
40
40%
30
30%
Investment
credits provided
byfirmom
banks to
firmsbanki
(PLN[mld
bn) zł]
Kredyty
inwestycyjne
udzielone
przez
Deposits/credits
companies
indicator
Wskaźnik
depozytyfor
/ kredyty
dla firm
20
10
20%
10%
0%
1
11
0
10
9
09
8
08
7
07
0
-5%
2008.06
2008.12
2009.06
2009.12
2010.06
2010.12
2011.06
2007.12
100%
70
Combined value of portfolio assets at end of 2011 in the amount of PLN61.10
bln (52.44 bln for movable property and 8.66 bln for real property) is comparable
to the value of the balance of investment credits provided by banks to firms (
PLN79.34 bln). Besides credit, leasing is the main external source of
financing in the economy.
Value of that portfolio in the last 12 months increased by 10.4%, achieving the
highest In history value.
NBP data on supply of money at 31 December 2011 indicates the essentials
acceleration of bank credit in the area of investments. In the last 12 months the
balance of investment bank credits increased by 27.6%. This at once is the
highest dynamism on annual basis since April 2009.
11
wr
z
y
10
aj
1
m
st
w
rz
09
aj
1
m
y
st
08
aj
0
y
wr
z
m
st
w
rz
y
07
aj
0
m
st
w
rz
aj
0
m
y
Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11
st
20%
55,9
9,1%
37,8
40
61,1
20%
52,4
48,4
Całkowita
Total value
wartość
of theaktywnego
active portfolio
portfela
Change
copmparison
to the previous period
zmiana
doinpoprzedniego
okresu
70
Source: PLA, NBP
Results for 2011
of
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing
Association
(PZWLP)
Polish Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (PVRLA)
Summary for 2011
•
•
•
•
Results of PVRLA – summary of 2011
PVRLA 2011 – 16 member firms
– Results were provided by 15 firms
– One of the members will start reporting after Q1 in 2012
PVRLA after Q4 IV in 2011 – 93,216 leased vehicles including:
– FSL
75.819 (FSL – full service leasing)
– LS
7.418 (LS – leasing with service)
FM
9.979 (FM – exclusively management)
Source: PVRLA
Results of PVRLA in 2011
•
•
Results of PVRLA in 2011
Increase in PVRLA fleet vehicles during year
– Increase of 11.9% (9,942 vehicles) compared to Q4 in 2010
– includes 77% of FSL, 23% - combined LS and FM
•
Fastest development – FSL – during the year with 6,687
Development dynamics
of PVRLP fleet for 2011
(combined number of
vehicles in
FSL, LS i FM in thousands)
Source: PVRLA
vehicles
Fleet Branch Leaders
(members of PVRLA and PLA)
Leaders of Total Long-Term Rental
1. Masterlease
2. LeasePlan
3. Arval Service Lease
4. Alphabet Polska
5. Carefleet
20.297
18.101
15.849
10.206
7.941
(including with FM 152)
(including with FM 3.602)
(including with FM 342)
(including with FM 105)
(including with FM 606)
Leaders in FSL Sector
1. Arval Service Lease
2. LeasePlan Fleet Management
3. Masterlease
4. Alphabet Polska
5. Carefleet
Source: PVRLA
15,379
14,473
13,224
9,257
7,335
Members of PVRLA and PLA – fleet market leaders
combined structure total according to product
On the basis of results of 16 firms
PVRLA and PLA – combined total at end of 2011: 113,513 vehicles
Increase of 9% compared to 2010 (yr/yr)
On the basis of results of 16 firms
Source: PVRLA
Company Investments
Company Investments in 2011 (1)
Arriving data shows investor fear of making investments…
Indicators of new investments – share of companies planning
start to new investements in a quarterly periods horizon
Indicator of continuying investments and
share of firms with started investemnts
NBP research for fourth quarter of 2011 indicates continuing low investment activity of firms. 20.6% of firms (22.0% for Q4 of last year) announced start of
new investments in the first quarter of 2012.
Uncertainty as to future situation continues to presents itself negatively in terms of the number of undertaken investments and which causes the indicator level
of new investments for more than three years to remain below that of the average for many years.
Drop in investment activity is shown equally in the SME sector as in large firms (especially with those with 500 and more persons). In general the situation,
however, looks significantly better In the large firm sector with the year to year perspective showing a certain improvement. As a result, there is a further
increase in the distance between large and SME firms in their pace of development.
Participation in course of investment accomplishment in Q4 of 2011 decreased minimally to the level of 61.7% (60,7% in Q3). This is still significantly below the
level achieved before 2009.
Started investments decidedly in their majority (above 96%) are continuing without interruption, which confirms the good situation of firms. This is significant as
a swing of this indicator can be one of the first signals of an approaching slow down (Q3 of 2008 showed a sudden increase of firms verifying their investment
plans downwards and reducing the scale of realized projects).
NBP data
Company Investments in 2011 (2)
But companies are continuying their started investments
70
50%
37,1%
40%
60
22,0%
50
40
30
15,5%
20%
10,1% 9,0%
23,8%
6,5%
10%
-5,3%
15,6%
30%
0%
1,9%
20
-17,9%
10
-10%
-20%
-17,7%
0
-30%
I-II kw . III-IV kw . I-II kw . III-IV kw . I-II kw . III-IV kw . I-II kw . III-IV kw . I-II kw . III-IV kw . I-II kw .
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
III kw .
2011
Inwestycje
firm
zatrudniających
od 50
[mld zł][PLN billion]
Investment
of the
companies over
50osób
employees
realna
dynamikadynamics
inwestycjiYOY
r/r
real invetment
After a drop of investments in the economy by 0.2% In 2010,
initial data shows that the gross investments in fixed assets
increased by 8.7% on an annual basis. Investments in the national
economy accelerated n subsequent quarters of the previous year
on a yr/yr basis of +5.9% in Q1, +6.9% in Q2, +8,5% in Q3 and
over 10% in Q4. This resulted mainly from the completion of
infrastructure projects, exploitation of the already high production
potential of firms and of an increase in credits for firms.
Investment in medium and large firms accelerated analogically
(+2,6% in Q1, +13,6% in Q2 and +15,5% in Q3), which were
additionally supported with very good financial results.
Increase in investments of firms in real terms in Q3 of 2011 in an
amount of +15.5% yr/yr is from a strong +22,4% increase in
investments of private sector firms and with an increase of +3.0%
for public sector firms.
In the period Q1 – Q3 of 2011 expenditures (researched by GUS
for non-financial firms) on new fixed assets amounted to PLN 62.3
bln and were (in constant prices) 12.1% higher than in the previous
year. Expenditures on buildings and construction increased in real
terms by 3.5%, on machinery and equipment by 15.0%, on
transport means by 30.9%.
Investment of firms in Q3 of 2011 was equal to PLN 24.8 bln,
which are nearing the level of before the crisis start in 2008.
GUS data
Company Investments in 2011 (3)
Average level of capacity utilization
Deposits of firms at record level: 12.2% increase on annual basis.
170
160
150
140
130
120
1
11
w
rz
11
aj
1
m
st
y
0
10
w
rz
10
9
09
aj
1
m
st
y
w
rz
09
aj
0
m
st
y
8
08
w
rz
08
aj
0
m
st
y
07
7
110
w
rz
Difference in the configuration of the degree of capacity utilization (high in large firms, lower in SMEs) is
indicated in the earlier shown differentiation in the indicator of new investments in both groups of firms.
180
aj
0
In the perspective of the last two years there is a gradual increase in the capacity utilization of SMEs as well
as in large firms after a strong collapse in the years 2008 – 2009. Recent minimal decrease in the combined
capacity utilization is an offshoot of the situation in the largest firms where the larger investments were also
performed.
Deposits of
firms in
commercial banks
(PLN
Depozyty
banków
komercyjnych
od firm
[mldbn)
PLN]
190
07
As a result at the end of Q4 of last year the combined capacity utilization amounted to 80.4% (drop of 0.3%
QOQ, increase of 0.7% yr/yr). The indicator level is still above the long term average, and its minor decrease
in Q2 of 2011 is strongly correlated with observed firm investment increase.
205 205
mldbnzł
PLN
200
m
As a result at the end of Q4 of last year the combined capacity utization amounted to 80.4% (drop of 0.3%
QOQ, increase of 0.7% yr/yr). The indicator level is still above the long term average, and its minor decrease
in Q2 of 2011 is strongly correlated with observed firm investment increase.
210
st
y
End of 2011 saw not a very large drop in the level of capacity utilization in construction and services,
together with stabilization of the industry indicator.
Data; NBP
Company Investments in 2011 (4)
Share of companies planning to start
significant investments in the next year
We believe that a sufficiently high scale of private investment decrease in
the last three years (which impacts on the use of fixed assets) and the
expected relatively shallow slow down will cause the continuation of private
sector investments.
We forecast that investment of private sector firms will increase in 2012 by 7% while
public sector investments by about 2%. The combined expenditures in the economy
will increase by 5%.
Hence, there will be an insignificant weakening of investment activity of firms. Investment
of firms will largely be cancelled out by the forecast expiry in the second half-year of public
investments (mainly in infrastructure) to a significant extent by the forecast by the expiry of
public sector investments (mainly in infrastructure).
We assume that that continuation of SME investment will result foremost from continued
high consumer demand, which will benefit SME firms concentrating mainly on the domestic
market.
Investments planned for 2012 YOY
Despite growing uncertainty, the situation continues to be positively assessed by firms.
This assessment and the very good financial results of firms, high financial liquidity and
availability of financial sources are causing favourable conditions for an increase in
investments.
Very good current results of industry and minimal lower forecast for current year will
impact capacity utilization and the necessity for its reconstruction.
We also see acceleration of credit granting by banks, including in the area of investment
credit. In this regard we expect continuation further increase in investments in 2012.
outlays will be significantly bigger YOY
slightly bigger
comparable
slightly smaller
We expect that results of the leasing branch in 2011 were a permanent foreshadowing of
increase in investments of firms. Up to now the leasing market indicated half a year in
advance investment changes in the national economy.
significantly smaller
Data: NBP
Prognosis for macro-economic environment
Year 2011 – continuation of positive economic trends
In 2011 Poland benefitted from the transformation of the economy a year earlier;
7
5 700
employment
firms (thous.
pers.)
zatrudnienie
w in
sektorze
przedsiębiorstw
[tys. osób]
employment
dynamics
firms % przedsiębiorstw
YOY
dynamika
zatrudnienia
w in
sektrorze
% r/r
5 600
6
5
5 500
4
5 400
3
2
5 300
1
5 200
0
-1
5 100
-2
-3
5 000
01-08
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
25,0
payroll dynamics
in firms
% sektorze
YOY
dynamika
funduszu
płac w
przedsiębiorstw % r/r
retail sale nominal
dynamics
YOYdetalicznej r/r
nominalna
dynamika
sprzedaŜy
20,0
from a country where economic growth depended mainly on export dynamics (and
connected with it industrial production) to an economy to a large degree based on
domestic demand. This favourable GDP structure ensured stable economic growth in
the following year.
Relatively good situation on the labour market allows for a gradual increase in
employment in firms (higher in December 2011 by 2.3% in comparison to December
2010), but together with a decrease in its dynamics on an annual basis.
Gradual increase in employment together with the real increase in salaries caused
increase in labour fund (on average +4,2% in first half-year and 3,8% in second halfyear). As a result, retail sales increased last year by 11.6%.
Data from second half-year already showed signs of a slow down of the economy.
The dynamics of individual consumption gradually decreased, which is connected with
an increase in inflation and a lower dynamics of the labour fund. Even though in the
first half-year of 2011 private consumption increased by 3.6-3.7%, while in the Q3 by
3.2%, GDP data for the entire 2011 indicate that in the last quarter of last year the
increase was about 2%.
In 2012, as a result of a slight economic slow down, an increase of up to 12.7% in
the rate of unemployment is forecast. This will happen mainly because of fears of
employers as to economic perspectives both domestically and abroad.
15,0
Pessimism amongst entrepreneurs will incline firms to limit costs of business
activity. We assess that this will be chiefly through a decrease in the number of new
employment offers and a freezing in salaries. We do not expect an actual reduction in
employment because costs adjustments in Polish firms (chiefly industrial ones) have
already been made in the years 2008 to 2009.
10,0
5,0
0,0
-5,0
01-08
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
We expect that private consumption will remain stable in 2012. However, the
general pessimism as to the world economy, lower industrial dynamics and a brake in
firms to employment dynamics will also put a break on retail sales this year to about
7%
Data: GUS
Poland will experience gradual slow down of euro zone
14 000
50
Export EUR
m
Eksport
EURmn
Export %
YOY
Eksport
%r/r
Import
%
YOY
Import % r/r
12 000
40
30
10 000
20
8 000
10
6 000
0
-10
4 000
-20
2 000
-30
0
-40
01-08
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
07-10
01-11
15
07-11
12,7
5
0
However, the current downward trend in new orders is weaker than in the second half-year
of 2008 and in the first half-year of 2009. At the same time the current level of stockpiles is
lower than in 2008. In this connection we do not expect that the future worsening situation in
western Europe would lead - as in 2009 – to drops in industrial production next year in
Poland. Production index within the PMI indicator framework increased in December to 51.3
points from 50.1 in November.
Industrial production
dynamika produkcji
dynamics % YOY
przemysłowej % r/r
(seasonally adjusted)
(odsezonowana)
-5
-10
-12,7
-15
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
60
07-10
01-11
07-11
56,3
We expect that industrial production dynamics in the entire 2012 will come to a break at
4%, while reaching the bottom in the second and third quarter (dynamics will not exceed 2%),
while in fourth quarter we can already count on production dynamics above 5%. We
assume that that domestic demand will remain relatively strong, while the weak zloty will
support the profitability of exports and will limit the pace of reduction of foreign sales. The
limitation by firms on their stockpiles will negatively impact industrial production.
55
50
45
PMIdla
for polskiego
Polish industry
PMI
przemysłu
40
35
06-08
Production data from the second half-year showed that the weakening of the zloty
translated to stronger increases in typically export branches (furniture, metals products, cars).
This activates a mechanism which proved effective in 2009. The weak zloty improves the
competitiveness of Polish industry, which will allow respectable production dynamics for
several more months. However, this effect will not be so strong as to be capable to entirely
shield Polish economy from a slow down in the euro zone. This effect will weaken with time
together with a halt in external demand.
Industrial results up to now indicate a gentler scenario and a later cooling of our economy .
The latest readings of the PMI index for POlish industry (especially 48.8 points in December),
indicates a worse perspective of domestic economic activity, in line with worldwide trend. This
is particularly indicated by sub-indexes connected with new orders, especially export ones.
10
01-08
Increase in industrial production by 7.7% in 2011 indicates the resilience of Polish industry
to the situation in the euro zone.
38,3
12-08
06-09
12-09
06-10
12-10
06-11
12-11
Data: GUS, NBP
However, this will not impact on the pace of Poland’s
development
15,0
However, the euro zone gradually enters the phase of economic slow down. A
shallow recession is possible. Indicators ahead of economic activity show that one
should not expect a collapse on a scale of the years 2008 – 2009. The last months
show the gradual improvement of the main indicators of the situation in US industry
and the euro zone. We expect in 2012 a weak but positive GDP growth of 0.5%.
Poland’s
PKB
Polski GDP
r/r % YOY %
Private
consumption
spoŜycie prywatne r/r %YOY %
Gross expenses on fixed assets
nakłady brutto na środki trwałe r/r %
10,0
5,0
0,0
Q1'08
Q3'08
Q1'09
Q3'09
Q1'10
Q3'10
Q1'11
Q3'11
-5,0
We see a revival in the US economy. We are particularly happy with the
improvement on the labour market (drop in unemployment to 8.5% in December)
and on the real property market.
European Central Bank actively supports the banking sector of the euro zone
through the supply, in principle, of unlimited liquidity: 3 year loans with interest
according to refinance rate.
-10,0
-15,0
We assume that 2012 will see a halt in Poland’s economic growth while it will not
be as important as forecast by the Polish government (2.5% in the budget) or
market consensus (in the order of 2.2% - 2.6%). Polish firms are well prepared for
a worsening of the situation in the euro zone while consumers are resilient to
negative information.
Euro zone industrial production % YOY
produkcja przemysłowa strefy euro % r/r
USA industrial
production
% YOY
produkcja
przemysłowa
USA
% r/r
China industrial
production
%%
YOY
produkcja
przemysłowa
Chin
r/r
20
15
10
5
0
04-10
65
07-10
10-10
01-11
04-11
07-11
10-11
60
Foremost negative impact on economic growth in 2012 will be reduction in the
level of stockpiles and halting of infrastructure investments in the second half-year.
Private consumption should remain slightly lower but stable (increase in the order
of 2.8%) during the entire year. There will also be an increase in the importance of
net exports, which will add about 1 percentage points to the GDP.
Increase in the Polish GDP last year at 4.3% (3.9% in 2010) confirmed the
strong resilience of the Polish economy to worsening global prospects for
economic growth and instability on capital markets.
55
50
45
Euro
Zoneeuro
PMI
PMI
strefy
ISM USA
40
China
PMI
PMI
Chin
35
30
10-08
02-09
06-09
10-09
02-10
06-10
10-10
02-11
06-11
10-11
Slow down in the euro zone economy in first quarter of 2012 will translate on the
halting of GDP growth in Poland (to about 2.7% yr/yr) slowing down in the euro
zone economy in Q1 of 2012 will translate to a halt in GDP growth in Poland (to
about 2.7% yr/yr). We assume that in the following three quarters the average
increase in economic growth of Poland will not fall below 3.3% yr/yr and will
amount to 3.2% for the entire year of 2012.
.
Data: GUS, Eurostat, HSBC Market Economics
Prognosis of macro-economic indicators for 2012
Macroeconomic vetor
2011
GDP
Investment outlays
change YOY
Private consumption
Net export
Industrial production
Reatial sales
change YOY
change YOY
tribute to GDP
change YOY
change YOY
4,3%
8,7%
3,2%
5,0%
3,1%
+0,4 pp
7,7%
11,6%
2,8%
+1,0 pp
4,0%
7,0%
3,3%
12,7%
4,50%
Inflation CPI
Rate of registered unemployment
in the end of the year
4,3%
12,5%
NBP reference rate
in the end of the year
4,50%
YOY annual average
2012
Prognosis for leasing market
Prognosis of leasing branch results (1)
Combined assets financed by leasing firms
2011
Vehicles
2012 (P)
zmiana
2012/2011
11,0%
zmiana r/r
I Q 2012
14,6%
zmiana r/r
II Q 2012
6,2%
zmiana r/r
III Q 2012
11,1%
zmiana r/r
IV Q 2012
12,8%
16 874
18 738
PDC
9 565
10 612
10,9%
15,9%
5,7%
10,8%
12,6%
Trucks
6 681
7 456
11,6%
16,2%
6,5%
11,5%
12,4%
629
670
6,6%
-11,2%
11,2%
10,8%
26,5%
10 797
605
925
313
12 158
763
1 019
358
12,6%
15,1%
11,2%
7,0%
17,2%
26,2%
25,8%
27,0%
25,9%
26,3%
10,1%
8,4%
10,1%
10,8%
9,9%
14,6%
20,3%
20,0%
5,0%
15,1%
29 513
33 036
11,9%
14,9%
8,7%
9,8%
14,6%
1 629
1 716
5,4%
-10,7%
72,8%
9,0%
-0,9%
31 142
34 753
11,6%
13,1%
10,0%
9,8%
13,4%
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Total movables
Real estate
Total leasing
Main drivers in 2012 will remain transport vehicles (expected improvement in international transport in the second half-year, continued good level of
transport orders and the need for greater exchange of rolling stock for new ones due to increases in rates of e-toll), and machinery (need to complement /
expand machinery park due to the increased utilization of production capacity)
We do not yet expect important improvement in the real estate leasing sector.
Likely absence of an easy return to "gratings" in 2013 will not cause a halt to demand for passenger cars this year.
About 12% in market increase for 2012 should exceed investment growth in the national economy.
Macroeconomic data from last several months indicate that there is durable economic recovery. We expect maintenance of positive dynamics on the
leasing market in following quarters of this year, which will correspond with an increase in forecast firm investments.
Expected increase in private investments will be financed to a large extent from loans. This will be favoured by increased absorption of European funds
and growing interest of leasing firms in this product, which will translate to an increased share of loans financing investments.
Source: ZPL
Prognosis of leasing branch results (2)
Assets financed by leasing
2011
Vehicles
2012 (P)
zmiana
2012/2011
11,4%
zmiana r/r
I Q 2012
14,8%
zmiana r/r
II Q 2012
7,7%
zmiana r/r
III Q 2012
10,0%
zmiana r/r
IV Q 2012
13,6%
16 406
18 284
PDC
9 315
10 349
11,1%
14,3%
8,8%
10,0%
12,0%
Trucks
6 515
7 276
11,7%
15,3%
5,6%
10,1%
15,2%
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Movables total
Real estate
Leasing total
576
658
14,1%
16,7%
10,0%
10,0%
26,2%
8 228
588
917
312
8 893
735
1 009
357
8,1%
8,6%
5,7%
5,7%
12,2%
25,0%
25,0%
25,0%
25,0%
25,0%
10,0%
10,0%
10,0%
10,0%
10,0%
14,5%
20,0%
20,0%
5,0%
15,0%
26 450
29 277
10,7%
12,9%
7,6%
9,0%
13,4%
1 254
1 321
5,4%
-5,0%
60,0%
15,0%
-5,0%
27 704
30 599
10,4%
11,9%
8,6%
9,2%
12,1%
Assets financed by loans
2011
Vehicles
2012 (P)
zmiana
2011/2010
Udział
poŜyczki Q1
2012
Udział
poŜyczki Q2
2012
Udział
poŜyczki Q3
2012
Udział
poŜyczki Q4
2012
2,8%
469
455
-3,0%
2,1%
2,2%
2,5%
PDC
250
262
4,8%
2,2%
2,3%
2,5%
2,8%
Trucks
166
180
8,5%
2,1%
2,1%
2,5%
2,8%
Other vehicles
Machines
IT
Planes, ships, railway
Other movables
Movables total
Real estate
Leasing total
53
12
-76,5%
1,7%
1,7%
2,0%
2,1%
2 569
17
8
1
3 265
28
10
1
27,1%
24,2%
25,0%
27,3%
30,1%
68,9%
2,5%
3,3%
4,0%
4,5%
22,4%
1,0%
1,0%
1,0%
1,0%
34,8%
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
3 063
3 759
22,7%
10,3%
10,6%
11,4%
12,9%
375
395
5,3%
23,0%
23,0%
23,0%
23,0%
3 438
4 154
20,8%
11,0%
11,0%
11,8%
13,6%
Source: ZPL
Press conference of January 2012
PLA demands changes to the economic law which will result in:
Access to inexpensive financing for entrepreneurs and consumers
Actual state:
Government draft of amendments in tax laws regarding consumer leasing entered into
force on 1 July 2011
Consumers thus receive access to inexpensive financing for entrepreneurs and
consumers
Actual state:
Government draft of amendments in tax laws regarding consumer leasing entered into
force on 1 July 2011
Consumers thus receive access to favourable purchase conditions and many services
in the area of leasing, to new forms of benefitting from consumer goods, and credit risk
is distributed between leasing financier and leasing beneficiary
Revitalise real property leasing market:
- by shortening to 5 years real estate leasing contracts
- by enabling permanent use leasing
PLA demands changes to the economic law which will result in:
► Access to inexpensive financing for entrepreneurs and consumers
Actual state:
Government draft of amendments in tax laws regarding consumer leasing entered into force on 1 July 2011
Consumers thus receive access to favourable purchase conditions and many services in the area of leasing, to
new forms of benefitting from consumer goods, and credit risk is distributed between leasing financier and
leasing beneficiary
Revitalise real property leasing market:
- by shortening to 5 years real estate leasing contracts
- by enabling permanent use leasing
►
► Increasing security of entrepreneurs who as a result of financial difficulties cannot continue leasing contracts:
- enabling transfer of obligations to another entity
- enabling leasing to another entity of object that was leased
under a renounced contract
Actual state:
PLA together with PKPP Lewiatan submitted a motion to the Ministry of Finance to continue work on draft
amendments to legislation.
PLA announce an initiative to include proposed solutions to the draft of a deregulation package.
Will increase security of taxpayers during the realization process of leasing contracts.
Organisation of conference dedicated to the subject of rights and duties of parties to leasing contracts in light of
civil law
Cohesion of tax law interpretation in decisions and interpretations of Ministry of Finance.
Actual state:
PLA entered into cooperation with Department of Law at the University of Warsaw conducting research on leasing
in light of operation of civil law.
PLA together with the accountancy firm PWC organised conference ZPL dedicated to leasing issues in tax law
interpretations and decisions of administrative courts on basis of problems in refactoring insurance on leasing
objects.
Will increase investment potential of self-government
by using private capital (PPP)
Actual state:
Centrum PPP, PLA is one of its founders, prepared a so-called path of access of public entities to
PPP projects in the area of: health protection, construction sublease, and construction of
headquarters of public authorities. There was preparation of PPP Adviser Code of Good Practices.
Works are continuing of further sectors including waste disposal, water-sewage, construction of
sports objects, information and communication technology, supply base of means for higher
education objects, construction of cultural-conference centres, nurseries and kindergardens,
revitalisation of cities.
Entrepreneurs will be rejuvenated to invest through decreasing costs of using firm cars and improve
security on roads, strenghten environment protection.
Actual state:
PLA together with Polish Association of Automotive Industry, Polish Motorization Chamber and
Association of Car Dealers prepared a report entitled "The automotive industry in crisis. Proposals
for solutions”.
Report contains four postulates important for the motorization branch: full VAT deduction for firm
cars, introduction of ecological tax, introduction of consumer leasing on leasing market, and sealing
of operations of vehicle inspection stations. The postulates were directed to the highest state
authorities and all political parliamentary groups.
PLA became partner of the program Friendly Mobility.
The goal of the program is to draw attention of representatives of public authority administration,
parliamentary authorities, representatives of social and professional organizations to the significance of
motorization equally for the economy as in the area of security, sustainable development of transport, and of
ecology. A cycle of parliamentary debates dedicated to these subjects ended the conference ”Synergy in the
Name of Development”, during which postulates were worked out for presentation to representatives of
public administration participating in the conference.
PLA together with organizations representing the motorization market commenced preparations for
organization of conference dedicated to the motorization market during the largest event on the Polish
motorization market which is the motor fair MOTOR SHOW 2012.
Polish Leasing Association
ul. Rejtana 17, Warszawa
tel.: (22) 542 41 36
fax: (22) 542 41 37
e-mail: [email protected]
www.leasing.org.pl