TFT-LCD Key Components Market Update, Q2-2007

Transcription

DP Liu / Eric Chiou
Outline
9 Summary
9 Key Components and Materials
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Demand / Supply Status
9 Mainstream Panel Size
- Cost Analysis
- Panel ASP V.S. BOM Cost
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Panel Maker Vertical Integration Issue
9 Conclusion
Intelligence I Q-report I Key Components Sector
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.
26 April 2007 | Page 2
Outline
9 Summary
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Cost Analysis
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Conclusion
Summary
LCD components industry outlook
9 Glass substrate
- Glass substrate demand will grow 13% QoQ in 2Q07 and 37% YoY in 2007.
- Glass substrate price in 2Q07 will decrease by only 2%-3%.
E
L
P
M
9 Color filter
- For 2Q07, color filter input capacity will increase 4.2%, compared to 1Q07. Due to the rapid utilization rate increase of G5 fabs,
G5 color filters will face a shortage beginning from 2Q07.
SA
9 Polarizer
- Similar to 4Q06, polarizer price will drop sharply in 2Q07. Thus, the profit of some polarizer makers are expected to drop,
compared to last year. This is mainly attributed to a capacity expansion of more than 50%, along with more intense
competition.
- Yet in 2Q07, polarizer prices for monitor and 32-inch TV will both decrease 3% to 5%. For 40-inch above TV, it will
decrease more than 10%.
9 Driver IC
- In 2Q07, driver IC ASP will decrease around 3% to 5%.
- 384 channels source driver IC continues to be replaced by 642 channels for IT panels.
9 BLU
- BLU price for 2Q07 will drop because of CCFL and associated optical film cost saving.
- Due to rapid capacity expansion in 2006, CCFL price decreased 10% to 20% in the beginning of 2007 to 1Q07.
Mainstream size panel cost
9 IT panel material cost drop for 2Q07 roughly within 3% to 5%. TV panel dropped roughly within 5% to 8%.
Outline
9 Summary
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Cost Analysis
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Conclusion
Glass Substrate – Demand and Forecast
16,000
20%
Total
14,000
QoQ
18%
( K square-meter/M )
16%
12,000
14%
10,000
12%
E
L
P
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Q1-04
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-05
Q2
Q3
Q4
200.0
( Mn m 2 )
150.0
M
A
S
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07 Q2(E) Q3(F) Q4(F)
Q108(F)
80%
70%
60%
50%
100.0
40%
30%
50.0
20%
10%
0.0
2004
2005
2006
2007 (F)
2008 (F)
5.5G or larger
1.8
17.5
49.6
79.9
102.7
5G
21.1
33.2
39.7
49.3
52.1
4.5G or smaller
20.7
22.4
20.8
21.3
21.6
67.4%
50.7%
36.8%
17.2%
QoQ
0%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
9 In 2Q07, glass substrate demand
for TFT LCD grew by 13%, larger
than 2.1% in 1Q07. The main
reason is that demand in 2Q07 will
prompt an input capacity increase
of TFT LCD fabs.
9 Based on the panel production of
TFT LCD makers, overall glass
substrate demand reached 150
million m2 in 2007, a 37% increase,
compared to 110 million m2 in
2006.
9 The glass substrate demand for
5.5G and above reached 53%, a
61% jump, compared to 2006.
Demand for large glass substrates
continues to grow, as many TFT
LCD makers begin operating 6G
or higher production lines.
9 On the other hand, 4.5G and
smaller glass substrate demand
merely grew by 2.7%, accounting
for 14.2% of total glass substrate
demand. 5G glass substrate
demand took up 33%, an annual
growth of 24%.
Glass Substrate – Demand Forecast and Ramp-up Schedule
Generation
Q1-07
Q2
Q3
NEG
(Shanghai, China)
(Polishing)
5G
6G
NEG
(Notogawa, Japan)
(Furnace)
7G/7.5G
Asahi
(Yunlin, Taiwan)
(Furnace)
22.9%
Q1-08
Corning
(Beijing, China)
(Polishing)
E
L
P
M
SA
Asahi
(Tainan, Taiwan)
35.3%
(Polishing)
Q4
Asahi
53%
(Gumi, Korea)
(Furnace)
9 To accommodate the rising demand of larger glass substrates from TFT-LCD makers, suppliers have steadily increased
43.8%
32%
45.5%
production of existing furnaces. New
furnaces and polishing lines are being established too.
9 In 2Q07, Asahi Glass and Nippon Electric Glass have ramped up new glass substrate capacity in Taiwan and Japan, respectively.
9 Asahi Glass has increased production capacity in Taiwan by installing new furnaces and polishing lines in Yunlin and Tainan,
Taiwan, in order to provide 7.5G and below glass substrates for CMO.
9 NEG’s new furnace in Notogawa has begun operations in 1Q07, supplying 6G and above glass substrates.
9 Corning has decided to invest USD 129 millions to further expand the manufacturing capacity of large-size glass substrates at its
Taichung, Taiwan manufacturing facility. In addition to being able to handle 8G sizes, the investment will create additional
finishing capacity for 7.5G. The expenditure will be incurred over two and a half years, with glass substrate production expected
to begin by mid-2008.
9 Corning invested USD 160 million to further expand its manufacturing capacity for large size glass substrates at its facility in
Shizuoka, Japan. The expenditure will be incurred over the next year and a half, with glass substrate production scheduled to
begin by mid-2008.
Glass Substrate – ASP Trend
Glass
GlassSubstrate
SubstrateSheet
SheetASP
ASPTrend
Trend
QoQ
QoQchanges
changes
70,000
G3.5
G4
G4.5
G5
G6
G7
G7.5
60,000
5%
0%
E
L
P
M
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
( JPY )
0
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
SA
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
QoQ(%)
50,000
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
G3.5
-16.7%
-10.0%
-8.3%
-7.9%
-6.7%
-2.1%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.1%
G4.5
-12.9%
-10.0%
-7.4%
-4.3%
-4.5%
-2.4%
1.2%
-4.5%
-2.1%
G5
-10.3%
-10.0%
-10.3%
-5.1%
-14.2%
-2.2%
-2.2%
-2.2%
-2.1%
G6(32)
-13.5%
-8.1%
-7.5%
-14.0%
-19.1%
-2.2%
-3.1%
-2.2%
-3.0%
G7
-12.5%
-7.5%
-4.0%
-2.6%
-2.2%
-3.9%
-2.2%
-3.8%
G7.5
-33.3%
-7.5%
-7.5%
-4.7%
-3.7%
-3.7%
-2.9%
-2.9%
9Overall glass substrate price will drop within 2%-3% in 2Q07.
9G3 and G4 glass substrate price drop will be below 2% for each quarter in 2007, as output ratio of G3 and G4
becomes lower in the overall panel production. G5 and G6 glass substrate price will decline 2%-3%.
9In 2007, G7 and G7.5 will decline more than 3% in each quarter, because panel makers will gradually increase input
capacity of G7 and G7.5.
Color Filter – Supply and Demand Status
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
8G
12,000
( K m2 )
E
L
P
10,000
8,000
6,000
M
A
S
4,000
2,000
0
Q1-05
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
160,000
Q4
Q1-07
Total Supply
140,000
( K pcs/Quarter, 17-inch eq. )
120,000
Q2(E)
Q3(F)
Total Demand
Q4(F)
7.5G
7G
6G
5.5G
5G
4.5G
4G
3.5G
3G
Q1-08(F)
Sufficiency
30%
25%
20%
100,000
15%
80,000
9 Affected by the reduced
production utilization rate in
1Q07 for TFT-LCD panels,
color filter supply grew merely
2.9%, compared to 4Q06.
9 Amid the expected demand
of TFT LCD panels in 2Q07,
the increased panel
production has driven up
color filter demand. A 8.7%
growth is projected,
compared to 1Q07, especially
for 5G color filters.
9 5G color filters will face a
shortage beginning from
2Q07, due to increased input
capacity from 5G fabs, but no
proportional expansion in the
color filter capacity.
10%
60,000
5%
40,000
0%
20,000
-5%
0
Q1-05
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2(E)
Q3(F)
Q4(F)
Q1-08(F)
Color Filter – G5 Tight Supply
G5
G5Size
SizeCoverage
Coverage
CF
CFSupply
SupplyStatus
Status--Industry
Industry
TV
MNT
15 / 17 / 17W / 19 /
19W / 20 / 20.1W /
21W / 22W / 24W /
26W / 27W
Supply
Gap
TFT
Demand
17W / 20.1 /
23W / 42W /
46W / 47W
E
L
P
CF
Supply
NB
15 / 14.1W /
15.4W / 17W
G5
Fabs
Outsource
In House
M
A
S
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
AMTC
1400
1600
1800
2000
CF
CFSupply
SupplyStatus
Status––by
byCompany
Company
CF Source
AUO
CMO
In House
100%
100%
Major
Suppliers
CFI
-
HSD
Innolux
65%
90%
Sintek
DNP
Samsung
LPL
SVA
BOE
IVO
40%
100%
0%
0%
0%
STI
-
Sintek
DNP
Sintek
DNP
Sintek
DNP
Sufficiency
9With a growing demand for TFT LCD panels, all of the fifteen G5 fabs will be running at full capacity.
9The worldwide 5G color filter demand stands at 1,800k per month. In contrast, the global supply of color filters, including in-house and outside
suppliers, are only 1,500k per month. A supply gap is unavoidable.
9Furthermore, the shut down of AMTC, due to financial issues, will make the shortage even tighter.
9But not all panel makers have been impacted by the shortage. For instance, LPL, Samsung, AUO and CMO produce color filters by
themselves. AUO acquired a 49% stake of Toppan CFI, securing its 5G color filter supply.
9On the other hand, China-based TFT LCD panel makers, BOE-OT and SVA-NEC, will be hit harder by the 5G color filter shortage, due to a
lack of in-house capability.
26 April 2007 | Page 10
BLU – Technology and Cost Improvement
Inverter
InverterLess
Less
Panel
Standard
Cost-Saving
New
NewStructure
Structure
100%
115% ~ 120%
Color
Saturation
NTSC
72%
NTSC
85%
E
L
P
M
SA
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Plate
Plate
Lamp
Lamp
Reflector
Reflector
Fi
lm
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
BEF
BEF
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Plate
Plate
Lamp
Lamp
Reflector
Reflector
LU
B
DBEF
DBEF
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Film
Film
Diffuser
Diffuser Plate
Plate
Lamp
Lamp
Reflector
Reflector
Brightness
NTSC
92%
FL
C
C
LIPS
Board
Inverter (s)
te
r
Panel
Luminescence
LuminescenceEfficiency
Efficiency
In
ve
r
PCB
DBEF
BEF
Diffuser
BEF
DBEFDTV
Multi-functional Prism
Multi-functional
Multi-functionalOptical
OpticalFilm
Film
9 BLU improvements are being conducted by changing the structure to achieve additional cost savings. By substituting DBEF or BEF
with diffuser film, costs can be reduced by more than 10%.
9 Optical film suppliers have developed multifunction films, where they can improve the brightness of the backlight and make it thinner.
The film combines functions of BEF and DBEF (3M) or BEF and diffuser (MNtech, SKC, Efun, etc.).
9 TFT LCD panel makers adopt LIPS (LCD inverter power supply) to integrate inverters and power supply.
9 By raising the CCFL luminescence efficiency 15%~20%, the backlight’s BEF can be replaced to reduce costs. In addition, the color
saturation can be enhanced from 72% NTSC to 85%, or even 92%; improving the LCD TV performance.
26 April 2007 | Page 11
BLU – ASP Trend (Monitor Panel)
BLU
BLUASP
ASPTrend
Trend––Monitor
MonitorPanel
Panel
QoQ
QoQchanges
changes
0%
50
E
L
P
M
-5%
17
19(L)
19(H)
19W
20.1W
SA
22W
30
20
( USD )
10
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08 (F)
( QoQ )
40
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
17
-0.4%
-3.9%
-10.3%
-10.0%
19(L)
-0.3%
-1.7%
-19.3%
-4.3%
19(H)
-2.7%
-2.3%
-20.5%
-3.0%
19W
-0.3%
-1.7%
-19.3%
-4.3%
20.1W
-4.8%
-4.8%
-29.5%
-5.0%
-18.8%
22W
Q1-07
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
-4.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-4.4%
-5.8%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-6.4%
-5.0%
-6.4%
-13.6%
-5.0%
-10.4%
-11.6%
-5.0%
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
-8.3%
-6.1%
-13.6%
-5.3%
-13.6%
-5.3%
-6.6%
-17.3%
-3.6%
-11.1%
9 Due to severe competition, prices of optical film and CCFL are expected to decline substantially. In 2007, BLU cost
saving should be mainly contributed by optical film and CCFL price drop.
9 20W and 22W monitor BLU price decline will exceed more than 10% in 2Q07, due to supply of key BLU materials
from local Taiwan suppliers.
26 April 2007 | Page 12
BLU – ASP Trend (TV Panel)
BLU
BLUASP
ASPTrend
Trend––TV
TVPanel
Panel
QoQ
QoQchanges
changes
300
E
L
P
M
23W
200
26W
0%
32W
-5%
37W
-10%
SA
42W
( USD )
0
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
-20%
Qo Q(% )
100
-15%
-25%
-30%
Q4
Q1-07
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
-11.8%
-9.3%
-11.8%
-7.0%
-20.6%
-15.0%
-15.3%
-6.9%
-11.8%
-8.3%
-7.0%
Q2
32W
-6.5%
-10.3%
-10.9%
-2.1%
-9.6%
37W
-9.0%
-8.1%
-11.5%
-6.4%
-3.1%
-4.7%
-27.2%
-11.2%
-11.1%
-15.0%
42W
Q3
Q3 (F)
Q1-06
Q2 (E)
9 For TV BLUs, price drop could exceed more than 10%, as panel price continues to decrease.
9 32-inch BLU price drop within 10%. 37- and 42-inch BLU price will fall more than 15%.
9 Amid cost issues, panel makers introduced low cost 32-inch models. Its BLU adopts three lower diffusers to replace
one BEF and two diffusers.
26 April 2007 | Page 13
Polarizer – Capacity Investment Plans
Makers
Q1-07
Q2
Q3
Nitto
Denko
Sumitomo
Chemical
Sumitomo
(Ehime, Japan)
(Full process)
Sumitomo
(Pyungtaek, Korea)
(Full process)
Sumitomo
(Torun, Poland)
(Post-processing)
Sumitomo
(Wuxi, China)
(Post-processing)
Optimax
(Suzhou, China)
(Post-processing)
LG Chem
LG Chem
(Taichung, Taiwan)
(Post-processing)
Chi Mei
Material
Q1-08
Nitto Denko
(Shenzhen, China)
(Post-processing)
Nitto Denko
(Cernovicka Terasa,
Czech Republic)
(Post-processing)
E
L
P
M
SA
Optimax
Chi Mei Material
Line 2
(Tainan, Taiwan)
(Full process)
Q4
LCD Module
Polarizer Plant
POLAND
Optimax
(Suzhou, China)
(Post-processing)
CZECH REPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
9Polarizer makers capacity expansion plan: Nitto Denko has decided to construct a new plant in Shenzhen for optical film production in meeting
the growing demand of large-sized LCD TV applications. Plant investment will amount to 6 billion yen, and begin operating in Oct07.
9LG Chem plans to invest 2,708 million NT dollars to install a polarizer post-processing plant in Taichung, Taiwan. Production will begin in midAug07. Also, it announced plans to invest 44 billion won (roughly USD 43.2 million) to construct a polarizer back-end processing plant in
Wroclaw, Poland.
9To support the module plants of TFT LCD panel makers in East Europe, polarizer makers are planning to set up post-processing plants in the
area.
9LG Chem Ltd. Sumitomo plans to set up a polarizer post-processing plant in Poland. Mass production to start in summer of 2007, providing
support to Sharp’s Poland module plant. Total investment is around 5 billion yen.
9Nitto Denko to produce optical films for LCD-TVs in Czech Republic in strengthening local supply setup in Europe.
26 April 2007 | Page 14
Polarizer – ASP Trend (Monitor Panel)
Polarizer
PolarizerASP
ASPTrend
Trend––Monitor
MonitorPanel
Panel
QoQ
QoQchanges
changes
0%
16
17
20.1W
22W
13
SA
12
11
10
9
8
7
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08 (F)
( QoQ )
19VA
19W
14
( USD )
E
L
P
M
19TN
15
-6%
-12%
-17%
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
17
-3.4%
-10.4%
19TN
-2.8%
-10.9%
19VA
-2.7%
19W
-2.8%
20.1W
-2.8%
22W
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
Q4
Q1-07
-2.9%
-2.0%
-16.3%
-2.1%
-1.6%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-8.7%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-10.5%
-3.1%
-3.2%
-8.3%
-1.8%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-10.9%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-8.7%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-10.0%
-4.7%
-4.7%
-5.7%
-3.4%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-2.8%
-4.4%
-4.7%
-5.7%
-3.4%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-2.8%
9 For LCD monitor polarizers, price decline expected to be roughly 1%-2% in 2Q07.
9 Polarizer price declines sharply in 1Q07, causing the revenues and profits of polarizer makers to decrease more than
last year. Thus, polarizer prices in 2Q07 should drop less than in 1Q07.
9 In addition, some newcomers, such as Daxon and Chi Mei material have entered the polarizer market too. Severe
competition will accelerate price drop, especially in monitor segment.
26 April 2007 | Page 15
Polarizer – ASP Trend (TV Panel)
Polarizer
PolarizerASP
ASPTrend
Trend––TV
TVPanel
Panel
QoQ
QoQchanges
changes
0%
100
23W
-2%
26W
32W
-4%
37W
42W
SA
60
40
20
( USD )
0
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
Q o Q (% )
E
L
P
M
80
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
-20%
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08 (F)
23WTN
-4.8%
-10.7%
-5.1%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-5.0%
26WTN
-4.5%
-10.3%
-9.5%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-5.0%
32W
-10.5%
-10.0%
-10.1%
-6.6%
-13.4%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.4%
-2.9%
37W
-5.0%
-10.0%
-10.2%
-18.5%
-12.2%
-3.2%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-2.9%
-10.0%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-13.4%
-10.3%
-5.8%
-5.1%
-4.9%
42W
9 For LCD TVs polarizers, price decline to be roughly 3%-5% in 2Q07.
26 April 2007 | Page 16
Polarizer – Expansion of TAC Film Production
Fujifilm
Global TAC film Capacity Supply
700
60%
600
50%
40%
400
20%
200
10%
100
Konica
Minolta
SA
2005
2006
2007 (F)
Total
370
450
600
QoQ
54.2%
21.6%
Q4-06
Fujifilm
E
L
P
M
30%
300
0
(QoQ %)
( Mn M2/ Year )
500
Q1-07
(E)
Q2
(F)
Q3 (F)
Kumamoto
Plant 1
(Kumamot
o, Japan)
Kumamoto
Plant 2
(Kumamoto,
Japan)
L-4
(Kobe,
Japan)
L-5
(Kobe,
Japan)
33.3%
Q4
(F)
9 Fujifilm announced that its new LCD polarizer plant in Kumamoto
began operations in Oct06; 2 months ahead of schedule. The
construction of the new plant is in response to the increasing
demand of LCD TV products. A 2nd plant is slated for
construction in Kumamoto in Aug07, which is a year earlier than
originally planned. In Apr08, a 3rd plant will be built, which is 2
months sooner than originally projected.
Q108
(F)
0%
Q2 (F)
Kumamoto
Plant 3
(Kumamoto,
Japan)
9 Each plant will have two production lines. It is anticipated that all 6
lines will be fully functional by 2010, where the total Capex is
expected to reach 100 billion yen.
9 When all 6 production lines become operational, they will have an
annual polarizer production of 580 million m2, a twofold increase
versus its current 280 million m2.
Konica Minolta
9 Konica Minolta is considering moving up the operational date of its
4th TAC plant several months earlier. In order to quickly increase
its TAC film production, a 5th plant has already undergone
construction in Jul06, and is expected to be online in 2007.
9 The total investment of the company’s 4th TAC plant is roughly 10
billion yen (approximately USD 85.91 million), where it will have an
annual production of 30 million m2. The 5th plant is expected to
entail a total investment of 1.4 billion yen, producing 50 million m2
annually. If all 5 plants are taken into account, the production
volume of Konica’s TAC film will reach 170 million m2.
26 April 2007 | Page 17
Driver IC – Evolution of Cost Reduction
384
(6 Bit)
Channel
Channel
Chip
ChipArea
Area
100%
100%
Process
Process
0.4μ
0.4μ
Film
Film
TCP
TCP
45μ
45μ
SA
E
L
P
M
642
(6 Bit)
75%
75%
60%
60%
0.35μ
0.35μ
0.25μ
0.25μ
COF
COF
35μ
35μ
33%
33%
0.18μ
0.13μ
COF
COF
30μ
30μ
COF
COF
25μ
25μ
9 Driver IC cost reduction driven by die size shrink.
9 Foundry manufacturing process technology improves from 0.3μ~0.35μ to 0.25μ or 0.18μ. The shrinking die size
will allow more chips to be produced. The driver IC cost also declines simultaneously.
9 In addition, package pin pitch decreases from 35~30 to 25, enabling the die size to shrink further.
9 As panel makers seek to further drive down their costs, driver ICs are gradually progressing towards multi channels
in order to decrease the total amount of ICs required.
26 April 2007 | Page 18
Driver IC – ASP Trend
Driver
DriverIC
ICASP
ASPTrend
Trend
QoQ
QoQchange
change
2.2
0%
Source 384 channels
Source 642 channels
E
L
P
Gate 256 channels
1.7
( USD )
M
A
S
1.2
0.7
0.2
Q1-06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08 (F)
-5%
Qo Q (% )
Source 420 channels
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
Source 384 channels
Q1-06
Q2
-2.7%
-19.3%
Gate 256 channels
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
-7.4%
-1.5%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
0.0%
-1.5%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-4.7%
-4.5%
-4.7%
-3.0%
-8.3%
-9.1%
-1.5%
-5.2%
-5.0%
-4.5%
-4.7%
-3.0%
-10.0% -27.8%
-3.0%
-4.8%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-4.9%
-4.9%
-5.0%
Source 642 channels
Source 420 channels
Q3
9 In 2Q07, driver IC price drop will be within 5%.
9 In 2H06, panel makers began to employ 642 channels source driver ICs to replace 384 channels, where it is
anticipated to become mainstream in 1H07.
26 April 2007 | Page 19
Outline
9 Summary
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Cost Analysis
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Conclusion
26 April 2007 | Page 20
Monitor Panel – 17 inch (G5 Production)
Component Cost Breakdown
Panel BOM Cost
Panel BOM Cost
0%
100
-2%
80
-4%
60
-6%
40
-8%
20
-10%
E
L
P
M
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Material Cost
105.6
94.4
88.1
83.8
76.1
73.8
71.7
change (QoQ)
-3.9%
-10.6%
-6.7%
-4.9%
-9.1%
-3.0%
-2.8%
SA
( USD )
BOM Cost V.S. Panel ASP
17-inch ASP
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 H J an 0 5
Component Cost
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
69.3
67.3
-3.4%
-3.0%
-12%
% of Panel ASP
80%
60%
0%
1 H J uly
C rystal,
3.9%
100%
20%
1 H J an 0 6
Glass,
9.6%
C olor
Filter,
21.5%
Driver IC ,
12.0%
40%
1 H J ul
Others,
21.2%
QoQ(%)
Q1-06
( % of Panel ASP )
(USD)
120
BLU,
21.0%
Polarizer,
10.9%
1 H Jan 0 7
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 2.3, or 3%; mainly contributed by BLU, cost reduced by USD 1. Fully-loaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 98.4 and
cash cost in the same period is USD 82.3.
9 17-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 71% in Apr07, slightly higher than in 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster panel ASP drop (QoQ 7%)
than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 3%).
26 April 2007 | Page 21
Monitor Panel – 19 inch (G5 Production)
Panel BOM Cost
Panel BOM Cost
140
120
-2%
100
-4%
-6%
60
-8%
-10%
E
L
P
M
20
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07 Q2 (E)
Material Cost
130.3
117.5
106.9
102.8
93.1
change (QoQ)
-3.9%
-9.8%
-9.0%
-3.9%
-9.4%
Q3 (F) Q4 (F)
90.6
88.1
SA
-2.7%
-2.8%
19-inch ASP
250
( USD )
200
150
Component Cost
Q1-08
(F)
85.4
82.9
-3.0%
-2.9%
-12%
Others,
21.4%
Driver IC ,
9.7%
% of ASP
C rystal, 3.9%
C olor Filter
23.4%
100%
80%
60%
100
40%
50
20%
0
Glass, 10.4%
QoQ(%)
Q1-06
( % of Panel ASP )
(USD)
80
40
1 H J an 0 5
0%
BLU, 19.9%
Polarizer,
11.4%
0%
1 H J ul
1 H J an 0 6
1 H J uly
1 H Jan 0 7
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 2.5, or 2.7%; mainly contributed by BLU and driver IC, cost reduced by USD 1 and USD 0.5, respectively.
Fully-loaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 123.3 and cash cost in the same period is USD 101.9.
9 19-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 74% in Apr07, an increase of 3%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster decline in the
panel ASP (QoQ 6%) than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 3%).
26 April 2007 | Page 22
Monitor Panel – 19 inch Wide (G5 Production)
Panel BOM Cost
Panel BOM Cost
0%
100
-2%
80
-4%
60
-6%
40
-8%
E
L
P
20
-10%
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
M
A
S
Material Cost
118.8
107.1
97.3
93.7
84.7
82.2
79.8
77.2
74.9
change (QoQ)
-3.6%
-9.8%
-9.2%
-3.7%
-9.6%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-3.3%
-2.9%
BOM
BOMCost
CostV.S.
V.S.Panel
PanelASP
ASP
240
19-inch Wide ASP
Component Cost
200
160
( USD )
Q1-08
(F)
120
% of ASP
80%
60%
Glass
8.6%
C rystal, 3.9%
C olor Filter
19.3%
Driver IC
12.1%
100%
40%
80
Others
21.7%
QoQ(%)
Q1-06
-12%
( % of Panel ASP )
(USD)
120
Polarizer, 12.5%
BLU, 21.9%
20%
40
-
0%
1H O ct
1 H J an 0 6
1 H A pr
1 H July
1H O ct
1 H Jan 0 7
1 H A pr
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 2.5, or 2.8%; mainly contributed by BLU, cost reduced by USD 1. Fully-loaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 106.8
and cash cost in the same period is USD 90.7.
9 19-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 74% in Apr07, an increase of 3%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster declining panel
ASP (QoQ 6%) than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 3%).
26 April 2007 | Page 23
Panel BOM Cost
Panel BOM Cost
0%
160
-2%
120
-4%
(USD)
-6%
80
-8%
-10%
40
E
L
P
M
-12%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Material Cost
158.1
142.6
123.8
116.0
108.8
102.0
98.2
93.3
90.2
change (QoQ)
-6.2%
-9.8%
-13.2%
-6.3%
-6.2%
-6.2%
-3.7%
-5.0%
-3.3%
SA
20.1-inch Wide ASP
250
200
( USD )
Q4 (F)
150
Component Cost
Driver IC
11.4%
100%
80%
60%
40%
50
20%
2H Apr
2H July
2H O ct
2H Ja n 07
Glass
9.7%
C rystal
3.6%
C olor Filter
21.4%
% of ASP
100
-
-14%
QoQ(%)
Q1-06
Q1-08
(F)
0%
2H Apr
( % of Panel ASP )
0
Others
19.9%
BLU
23.0%
Polarizer
11.0%
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 6.8, or 6.2%; mainly contributed by structure change of BLU, cost reduced significantly by USD 4.9. Fullyloaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 131.4 and cash cost in the same period is USD 111.9.
9 20-inch wide material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 76% in Apr07, an increase of 5%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster declining
panel ASP (QoQ 12%) than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 6%).
26 April 2007 | Page 24
Panel BOM Cost
Panel BOM Cost
0%
120
-2%
90
-4%
60
-6%
E
L
P
M
30
0
Q3-06
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
Q4 (F)
134.0
123.7
114.8
109.8
105.2
100.6
-7.7%
-7.2%
-4.4%
SA
change (QoQ)
-4.2%
22W ASP
250
( U SD )
200
150
Component Cost
Q1-08 (F)
-10%
97.6
-4.4%
Others
21.9%
-3.0%
Driver IC
10.6%
% of ASP
Glass
9.9%
C rystal
3.9%
Q o Q(% )
Material Cost
-8%
C olor Filter
21.7%
100%
80%
60%
100
40%
50
20%
( % of Panel ASP )
(U SD )
150
BLU
21.9%
Polarizer
10.2%
0%
0
1H Aug
1H Sep
1H Oct
1H Nov
1H Dec 1H Jan 07 1H Feb
1H Mar
1H Apr
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 5, or 4.4%; mainly contributed by structure change of BLU, cost reduced significantly by USD 3. Fullyloaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 146.6 and cash cost in the same period is USD 122.5.
9 22-inch wide material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 67% in Apr07, an increase of 3%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a more rapid
declining panel ASP (QoQ 9%) than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 4%).
26 April 2007 | Page 25
TV Panel – 32 inch (G6 Production)
Panel
PanelBOM
BOMCost
Cost
Component
ComponentCost
CostBreakdown
Breakdown
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Q2 (E)
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
Material Cost
349.0
316.3
290.9
268.8
244.6
229.8
218.8
208.1
199.7
change (QoQ)
-6.8%
-9.4%
-8.0%
-7.6%
-9.0%
-6.1%
-4.8%
-4.9%
-4.0%
SA
BOM
BOMCost
CostV.S.
V.S.Panel
PanelASP
ASP
32-inch ASP
700
Component Cost
600
500
( USD )
E
L
P
M
Q3 (F)
400
% of Panel ASP
300
Glass
9.7%
C rystal
5.3%
Driver IC
4.1%
C olor Filter
21.3%
100%
80%
60%
20%
100
0
1H Jan 05 1H Apr
-10%
40%
200
Others
20.8%
QoQ(% )
Q1-06
( % o f P a n e l ASP )
(U SD )
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
BLU
29.4%
Polarizer
9.4%
0%
1H Jul
1H Oct 1H Jan 06 1H Apr
1H July
1H Oct 1H Jan 07 1H Apr
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 14.8, or 6.1%; mainly contributed by structure change of BLU, cost significantly reduced by USD 11.5. Fullyloaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 303.3, and cash cost in the same period is USD 254.5.
9 32-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 75% in Apr07, a decrease of 3%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster declining panel
cost (QoQ 6%) than the panel ASP reduction (QoQ 3%).
26 April 2007 | Page 26
TV Panel – 37 inch (G6 Production)
Panel
PanelBOM
BOMCost
Cost
Component
ComponentCost
CostBreakdown
Breakdown
0%
400
-2%
300
-4%
200
-6%
100
-8%
E
L
P
M
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
Material Cost
489.6
450.3
408.2
373.0
344.5
change (QoQ)
-9.4%
-8.0%
-9.4%
-8.6%
-7.6%
Q2 (E)
313.9
1000
C omponent C os t
( USD )
800
600
292.7
SA
-8.9%
BOM
BOMCost
CostV.S.
V.S.Panel
PanelASP
ASP
3 7 -inc h A SP
Q3 (F)
-6.8%
Q4 (F)
Q1-08
(F)
274.6
263.6
-6.2%
-4.0%
% of P anel A SP
-10%
60%
400
40%
200
20%
1 H Jul
0%
1H O ct
1 H Jan 0 6
1 H A pr
1 H July
1H O ct
1 H Jan 0 7
Glass
9.5%
Crystal
5.3%
Driver IC
3.0%
Color Filter
20.8%
100%
80%
0
Others
20.0%
Q oQ (% )
Q1-06
( % of Panel ASP )
(U SD )
500
BLU
31.9%
Polarizer
9.6%
1 H A pr
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 30.6, or 8.9%; mainly contributed by structure change of BLU, cost significantly reduced by USD 26. Fullyloaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 411.9, and cash cost in the same period is USD 346.8.
9 37-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 70% in Apr07, a decrease of 3%, compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster declining panel
cost (QoQ 9%) than the panel ASP reduction (QoQ 4%).
26 April 2007 | Page 27
TV Panel – 42 inch (G7.5 Production)
Panel
PanelBOM
BOMCost
Cost
Component
ComponentCost
CostBreakdown
Breakdown
0%
400
-2%
300
-4%
200
-6%
E
L
P
M
100
-8%
0
Material Cost
change (QoQ)
489.6
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-07
450.3
408.2
373.0
344.5
-8.0%
-9.4%
-8.6%
-7.6%
Q2 (E)
Q3 (F)
313.9
292.7
274.6
263.6
-8.9%
-6.8%
-6.2%
-4.0%
SA
BOM
BOMCost
CostV.S.
V.S.Panel
PanelASP
ASP
42-inch ASP
Component Cost
1,200
1,000
( USD )
800
600
Q4 (F)
-10%
QoQ(% )
Q1-06
Q1-08
(F)
Others
20.0%
Glass
9.5%
C rystal
5.3%
Driver IC
3.0%
C olor Filter
20.8%
% of Panel ASP
100%
80%
60%
40%
400
20%
200
( % of Panel ASP )
(US D)
500
BLU
31.9%
Polarizer
9.6%
0%
-
1 H J an 0 6
1 H A pr
1 H J uly
1H O ct
1 H J an 0 7
1 H A pr
9 Material cost saving for 2Q07 is USD 38.6, or 8.1%; mainly contributed by structure change of BLU and polarizer, cost significantly reduced by
USD 24 and USD 6, respectively. Fully-loaded cost in 2Q07 is USD 599.3 and cash cost in the same period is USD 479.
9 42-inch material cost to panel ASP ratio reaches 76% in Apr,07, an increase of 2% compared to 1Q07. Mainly caused by a faster declining panel
ASP (QoQ 9%) than the panel cost reduction (QoQ 8%).
26 April 2007 | Page 28
Outline
9 Summary
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Cost Analysis
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Conclusion
26 April 2007 | Page 29
Vertical Integration of TFT-LCD panel makers
BLU
Panel Maker
Glass Substrate
Color Filter
Samsung
Samsung Corning
Precision Glass
In-house
DSTI (5G)
LPL
Paju Electric Glass
In-house
Sharp
In-house (4G)
AUO
In-house
Toppan CFI
Cando
CMO
In-house
CPT
In-house
HSD
In-house (5G)
Sintek
BOE-Hydis
In-house
(Under planning)
SVA-NEC
NEG
Polarizer
Driver IC
In-house
LG Chem
BLU assembly
CCFL
Inverter
LED chip
Darfon
Highlinktech
SEMCO
Heesung
E
L
P
M
Heesung
In-house
In-house
DaxonTech
Raydium (Large-sized panel)
Orise Tech
Darwin
Wellypower
Chi Mei Materials
Himax
In-house
Chi Lin Technology
GIO
Howard
Sintronic
SA
Optical film
Exploit
Formosa Epitaxy
Cheertek
Suzhou BOE Chatani
In-house
(Fujifilm)
9 AUO Xiamen plant will operate in 2Q07. Darwin Precision, a joint venture between AUO and Forhouse, has begun operations in Mar07 to supply
AUO’s BLU demand.
9 Chi Mei Group’s Chi Lin Technology builds BLU units for CMO. A small amount of the BLUs are produced by CMO itself.
9 AUO plans to promote driver IC supply from group design house Radium.
9 CMO has acquired a 15% stake in Exploit to control supply of diffuser film for BLU.
26 April 2007 | Page 30
Outline
9 Summary
- Industry Outlook
- Price Trend
- Cost Analysis
E
L
P
M
SA
9 Conclusion
26 April 2007 | Page 31
Conclusion
Key Components price trend
In 2Q07, LCD key component prices will continue declining. Glass substrate and driver IC will drop steadily. However, polarizer and BLU
price drop will be roughly above 5%.
E
L
P
M
9 Glass substrate
- Glass substrate price sees steady drop in 1Q07; roughly 2%-3%.
- 2Q07 glass demand will grow by 13%, compared to 1Q07. In 2007, glass substrate demand estimated to see a 37% YoY growth,
compared to the previous year.
9 Color filter
SA
- In 2Q07, color filter supply will increase 4.2%, compared to 1Q07. Due to the rapid increase in the G5 fab utilization rate, G5 color filters will
face a shortage starting from 2Q07.
9 Polarizer
- Polarizer price will see a slower sequential price drop in 2Q07. Monitor-based polarizers mostly within 1%-2%. For TV-based polarizers,
mostly within 3%-5%.
- But in 2Q07, polarizer price for monitor and 32-inch TV will decrease 3% to 5%; for 40-inch above TV, it will decrease more than 10%.
9 Backlight unit
- Gradual BLU price drop in 2Q07; contributed from substantial key BLU component price drop, such as optical film and CCFL.
- Taiwanese BLU key component makers aggressively try to enter supply chain. Their competitive pricing strategy may trigger American and
Japanese makers to perform price cuts too. Thus, it is anticipated that BLU costs will see bigger price declines in the future.
9 Driver IC
- Driver IC price in 2Q07 shows steady decline.
- Due to additional cost downs, source driver IC for monitor use are migrating to multi channels. It is expected that 642 channels of source
driver ICs will become mainstream in 2007.
26 April 2007 | Page 32
Components Supply Condition
9 Amid 2Q07 demand recovery, input capacity of TFT LCD panel makers will increase. In light of the rush orders from panel makers, some
materials and components will become insufficient in the short term, eg. polarizer and driver IC.
9 5G color filters expected to experience a shortage. TFT LCD panel makers are increasing 5G input capacity, but independent color filter
makers are not expanding their 5G color filter productions.
E
L
P
M
Mainstream size Panel cost trend
9 Material costs in 1Q07 for monitor panels such as 17-inch, 19-inch,19W, 20W, drops within 3%-5%, lower than 1Q07.
9 Material costs in 1Q07 for TV panels, such as 32-inch, 37-inch and 42-inch drops within 5%-8%.
SA
Current Vertical Integration by Panel Makers
9
9
9
9
AUO Xiamen plant will operate in 2Q07. Darwin Precision has begun operations in Mar07 to supply AUO’s BLU demand.
Chi Mei Group’s Chi Lin Technology builds BLU units for CMO. A small amount of the BLUs are produced by CMO itself.
AUO plans to promote driver IC supply from group design house Radium.
CMO has acquired a 15% stake in Exploit to control supply of diffuser film for BLU.
26 April 2007 | Page 33

TFT-LCD Key Components Market Update, Q2-2007

Transcription

Similar documents

HIKVISION ARG-77xxseries

Insulpanel Description Manual

EVERLOCK````$flfatllJ!l Foundation Sidi,,!l.

van straten enterprises, inc.

Sprint AIR - Veterinary X-rays

Presentation

custom truck accessories

cpo selection board brief 16 april 2009 cpo selection board brief 16