ODIN Norge

ODIN Norge
Årskommentar 2014
Fondens portfölj
ODIN Norge – december 2014
Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år
•
Fonden steg 1,7 procent under den senaste månaden. Fondens referensindex sjönk under samma
tidsperiod 1,4 procent.
•
Fondens avkastning hittills i år är 4,6 procent. Referensindex avkastning hittills i år är -1,8 procent.
Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år
•
Denna månad har vi köpt aktier i Prosafe och sålt alla våra aktier i Norsk Hydro, Farstad Shipping och
Photocure.
•
I år är de största förändringarna i portföljen köp av Borregaard, DnB, Norwegian Air och Opera Software
och vi har sålt Ganger Rolv, Hafslund B, Nordic Semiconductor, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Statoil, Aker
Solution, Norsk Hyrdom, Austevoll Seafood och Farstad Shipping.
Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år
•
De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var PGS, Yara, Borregaard, Tomra och Subsea 7.
•
De bolag som bidrog minst till avkastningen denna månad var DNB, Kongsberg Gruppen, Farstad, Q-Free
och SR-Bank.
•
I år har bolagen Statoil, Yara, SalMar, Schibsted och Marine Harvest bidragit mest.
•
De svagaste bidragen till avkastningen i portföljen i år är PGS, Subsea 7, Farstad, EMGS och Det norske
oljeselskap.
ODIN Norge – december 2014
Prissättning av fonden
•
Fonden prissätts till 11,1 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.
•
Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 4,2 procent. Utöver detta tillkommer även återköp av aktier i bolagen.
•
Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 1,4 gånger .
•
Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 11,4 procent.
Prissättning av den globala aktiemarknaden - MSCI Global
•
MSCI Global prissätts till 11,2 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.
•
MSCI Global ger en direktavkastning på 4 procent.
•
Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts MSCI Global till 1,4.
•
Bolagen i MSCI Global har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 11 procent.
ODIN Norge
Förvaltarens årskommentar 2014
2014 – året då ODIN Norge slog tillbaka
Det finns flera orsaker till att det gick bättre för fonden än för
marknaden. Fonden hade ett stort innehav i Statoil under
den första hälften av året, men sålde under sommaren detta
och undkom därmed den kraftigt fallande aktiekursen under
den senare delen av året. Fonden har dessutom haft
begränsad exponering mot oljeservice och har bland annat
inte ägt några aktier i Seadrill, Prosafe och Fred Olsen
Energy.
Goda nyheter och uppjustering av priset för flera av våra
teknikinvesteringar har också bidragit positivt (det gäller
bland andra Vizrt och Schibsted). Nya investeringar i
fonden, till exempel Norwegian, Borregaard, DNB och
Opera Software har också bidragit positivt till fondens
avkastning.
6,0%
Relativ avkastning jämfört med
OSEFX 2014
ODIN Norge skapade god avkastning under 2014 för sina
andelsägare, både absolut och jämfört med marknaden.
Fonden hade en avkastning på cirka 11 %, vilket är 7 %
bättre än marknaden. Fonden har haft problem med
mindreavkastning i förhållande till marknaden under de
senaste åren och det har gjorts stora ändringar i fonden för
att vända den trenden. Det är därför tillfredsställande att se
resultaten av dessa förändringar.
ODIN Norge, mer-/mindreavkastning
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
-6,0%
jan. feb. mar. apr. mai. jun. jul. aug. sep. okt. nov. des. jan.
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15
ODIN Norge: Bidrag till avkastningen 2014
3,5%
3,0%
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
STATOIL
YARA
SALMAR
SCHIBSTED
MARINE
HARVEST
BORREGAARD
Källa: ODIN
5
NORSK HYDRO NORWEGIAN AIR
ODIN Norge
Oslobörsen präglad av lägre oljepris
Möjliga förklaringar till oljeprisfallet är svag efterfrågan,
ökad skifferproduktion i USA, ökad produktion i Libyen
och Irak och OPEC som beslöt att behålla kvoterna
oförändrade.
Prisfallet påverkar i synnerhet två sektorer på
Oslobörsen, olje- och oljeservicebolagen. Dessa två
sektorer utgör dock endast 24 % av fondindex.
Dessutom oroar sig marknaden för att bankerna
kommer att få ökade förluster till följd av lägre intjäning
hos sina lånekunder.
En del av bolagen på Oslobörsen kommer att gynnas av
det lägre oljepriset, eftersom olja är en del av kostnaden
för att driva verksamheten. Flygbolag, kryssningsfartyg
och shipping kommer att göra bättre resultat med lägre
oljepris, oavsett vad som händer. Detsamma gäller även
bolag som förbrukar stora mängder energi.
Även om oljepriset är viktigt för den norska börsen är
betydelsen faktiskt mindre än vad många tror.
Oljepris, Brent
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2011
per fat
Oljeprisfallet har präglat Oslobörsen på senare tid.
Oljepriset minskade med hela 53 USD under 2014,
vilket är det största årliga prisfallet i historien (oljepriset
minskade med 48 USD under 2008).
2012
2013
2014
Oslobörsen, fondindex
Telekom
9%
Finans
15 %
IT
4%
Helse
0%
Bygg
4%
Shipping
3%
Oljeservice
13 %
Råmateriale
15 %
Olje
11 %
Varig konsumgoder
12 %
Industri
7%
Fiskeoppdrett
7%
Källa: Bloomberg, ODIN
6
2015
ODIN Norge
Norskt oljeserviceindex ned 41 %
Redan innan oljepriset började falla kraftigt hade
oljebolagen som mål att förbättra sitt kassaflöde så att
ägarna skulle kunna få ut mer i utdelning. Oljebolagen
hade under de sista åren fått svagare avkastning på
investerat kapital, trots kraftiga ökningar av oljepriset.
En ökning av det fria kassaflödet skulle uppnås genom
att minska investeringarna, så att det skulle gå att
finansiera utdelning utan att öka bolagens
skuldbeläggning.
Minskade investeringar från oljebolagen innebär lägre
efterfrågan på oljeservicetjänster. Efter det kraftiga
oljeprisfallet i kombination med denna trend räds
marknaden nu att oljebolagens investeringsbudgetar
kommer att reduceras med 15 % för 2015, kanske ännu
mer.
Inom enskilda oljeservicesegment har goda tider
medfört hög kontraheringsaktivitet. Tillgångstillväxten på
riggmarknaden, subsea-konstruktionsfartyg, supplyfartyg och hotellriggar kommer att vara hög framöver
och marginalerna förväntas hamna under press. Med ett
kursfall på 41 % är det möjligt att mycket av detta
marginalfall redan har räknats in i prissättningen.
7
ODIN Norge
Valuta
Lägre oljepris har medfört att den norska kronan
försvagats kraftigt. Mot den amerikanska dollarn har
kronan försvagats med 24 % under 2014. Mot euron är
försvagningen något mindre, endast 8 %.
Norska bolag som har sina intäkter i utländsk valuta och
sina kostnader i norska kronor får bättre resultat med en
svagare krona. Norsk Hydro, Yara, Borregaard, Telenor,
odlingsbolagen och norsk oljeservice kommer alla att
tjäna på en svagare krona.
Bolag som importerar varor från utlandet och säljer dem
i Norge kommer i stället få svagare marginaler på grund
av kronans försvagning, till exempel Orkla och XXL.
Norwegian har beställt över 200 nya flygplan och
samtliga flygplan har beställts i amerikanska dollar.
Beställningen är så stor att det inte är möjligt att
valutasäkra den. En försvagning av den norska kronan
gör därmed beställningen betydligt dyrare. Det svaga
oljepriset bidrar positivt för Norwegian och är viktigare
för bolaget än försvagningen av den norska kronan.
8
ODIN Norge
Stora förändringar i portföljen
De största köpen under 2014 var Borregaard, Opera
Software, Norwegian, Marine Harvest, Telenor, PGS och
DnB. Många av dessa nya investeringar har bidragit
positivt till fondens avkastning under 2014.
De största försäljningarna var Statoil, Norsk Hydro,
RCL, Aker Solutions och Nordic Semiconductor. Dessa
försäljningar gjordes eftersom marknadens prissättning
var högre än våra interna värdebedömningar.
Dessutom har vi sålt oss ut ur Ganger Rolv, Hafslund,
Farstad Shipping och Austevoll Seafood. Vår
investeringsfilosofi bygger på att vi är aktiva ägare. I en
del av de här bolagen har de största aktieägarna visat
bristande vilja till att lyssna på andra aktieägare och då
har vi valt att dra oss ur helt.
Antalet positioner har minskat från 33 till 30 under året.
Vi har minskat den andel av portföljen som är investerad
i mindre bolag från 49 % till 40 % och ökat andelen
mellanstora bolag.
9
ODIN Norge
2015 – Vad händer nu?
Den norska aktiemarknaden är lågt prissatt i förhållande
till bokförda värden och högt i förhållande till den
förväntade intjäningen. Det kraftiga oljeprisfallet har
skapat stor oro på marknaden.
För de flesta andra aktiemarknader är ett lägre oljepris
gynnsamt och enligt IMF kommer ett fall i oljepriset på
10 USD att öka den globala BNP-tillväxten med 0,2 %.
Aktier är fortfarande mer attraktivt prissatta än andra
tillgångsslag. Vad som händer med den norska
aktiemarknaden är osäkert, men vi tror dock att
oljeprisfallet redan är mer eller mindre inräknat och
reflekteras i dagens prissättning. En försvagad krona är
positivt för norsk exportverksamhet.
Förutom utvecklingen av oljepriset kommer den norska
marknaden att vara beroende av global ekonomisk
tillväxt. Förutsatt att Norge fortsätter att exponeras mot
råmaterialmarknader så kommer utvecklingen på
tillväxtmarknaderna och i synnerhet i Kina att vara viktig.
OSEBX och P/B-tal
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
OSEBX
Price book=1.5
OSEBX och P/E-tal
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
OSEBX
10
Price book=2.0
P/E = 15x
P/E = 8x
ODIN Norge
2015 – sektorexponering
På grund av det kraftiga fallet i oljeserviceaktier under 2014
har ODIN Norge köpt in sig i PGS och Subsea 7.
Försäljningen av Statoil har gjort att fondens oljeexponering
är liten jämfört med marknaden. Fondens exponering mot
olje- och oljeservicebolag utgör i dag cirka 16 % av
portföljen.
Fonden har nästan 8 % av sina medel investerade i IT, men
efter en förväntad försäljning av Vizrt kommer denna
exponering minska till under 5 %.
Fondens största sektorexponering är finans med
investeringar i DNB, SpareBank 1 Midt-Norge, SR-Bank och
Gjensidige Forsikring. Finans är fortsatt lågt prissatt med
god avkastning på egenkapitalet och förväntningar om ökad
utdelning.
Vår exponering mot fisk har ökat under 2014 genom
ytterligare köp i Marine Harvest. Goda utsikter, låg
tillgångstillväxt och låg prissättning gör att vi är fortsatt
positiva till denna sektor.
Genom försäljningen av Norsk Hydro och Royal Caribbean
Cruises har fonden reducerat exponeringen mot råmaterial
och varaktiga konsumtionsvaror.
11
ODIN Norge: sektorexponering
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
OSEFX %
ODIN Norge %
ODIN Norge: Sektorexponering jämfört med
index
10%
6,5 %
8%
6%
3,2 %
4%
1,5 %
0,8
%
0,7
%
0,2 %
2%
0,1 %
0,0 %
0%
-0,1 %-0,4 %
-2%
-1,5 %
-4%
-2,7 %
-6%
-8%
-10%
-8,3 %
ODIN Norge
Aktivt ägarskap
ESG-bedömning av ODIN Norge
Fonden består av endast 30 investeringar. Därför har vi all
anledning att ägna ordentligt med tid åt att analysera och följa
upp varje enskilt bolag.
Vi har haft regelbunden kontakt med ledningen i våra
portföljbolag under året som gått. I enlighet med våra principer
har vi röstat vid alla årsstämmor och deltar i flera
valkommittéer. Vi diskuterar alltid ansvarstagande när vi
samtalar med bolagen och i dag känner vi oss trygga med att
vi har en portfölj med kvalitetsbolag. Enligt vår rådgivare som
analyserar bolag ur hållbarhetsperspektiv, Sustainalytics, är
det ingen av fondens investeringar som räknas till
kategorierna ”underperformers” eller ”industry laggards”. Det
innebär att våra bolag ligger bra till inom de branscher de
representerar vad gäller kvalitet och hållbarhet.
Trots detta är det en del bolag i portföljen som har omtalats
negativt i media i samband med anklagelser om
konkurrensförhållanden och korruption. När sådant inträffar
intensifierar vi dialogen med de aktuella bolagen och försöker
att säkerställa att ledning och styrelse hanterar situationen på
ett ansvarsfullt sätt. Under 2014 gällde detta bolagen Yara,
Telenor, Kongsberg Gruppen och Wilh Wilhelmsen.
12
(Källa: Sustainalytics)
71,7 %
19,5 %
8,9 %
Industry Leader
Outperformer
Average
Performer
0,0 %
0,0 %
Underperformer
Industry Laggard
Nyckeltal och nyheter
från portföljen
– allt presenteras på engelska
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (EUR)
ODIN Norge
Index
Historical Return % (EUR)*
Portfolio
Benchmark
Exess Return
Last Month
1,66
YTD
4,58
1Y
4,58
3Y
6,59
5Y
2,53
10 Y
5,12
Since
inception
14,65
-1,44
-1,83
-1,83
10,91
7,53
7,82
10,57
3,10
6,41
6,41
-4,32
-5,01
-2,70
4,08
* Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Sector allocation
ODIN Norge
Benchmark
30
24,4
25
20
18,017,4
16,5
15
13,213,7
13,4
11,2
10,8
10
7,3
7,3
8,2
9,0 9,1
7,5
5,5
5
0,0 0,4
0
16
0,0 0,2
Sector contribution, year to date
17
Current holdings
18
Contribution, year to date
19
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years
Portfolio
Alpha
-0,68
Beta
0,76
Tracking Error
5,48
Information Ratio
Sharpe Ratio 1)
Standard Deviation 2)
1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate.
2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
20
Index
-0,83
1,06
1,31
10,05
11,59
ODIN Norge
Significant Portfolio changes year to date
Number of changes in portfolio year to date
3
1
0
0
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
-1
Q4
-4
Q1
Up or down
In or out
+
21
Q2
-
-4
Q3
Q4
+
-
+
-
Borregaard
DNB
Opera
Nordic
Semiconductor
Norwegian
Ganger Rolv
Hafslund B
RCCL
Statoil
PGS
SR-Bank
BW Offshore
Marine Harvest
Telenor
Buy
Sell
+
Aker Solution
Austevoll Seafood
Farstad
Norsk Hydro
Subsea 7
Pricing of the fund
Company
Weight
Country
Industry
P/E (LTM)*
P/E (NTM)*
DivYield (LTM)
DivYield (NTM)
P/B
ROE
Telenor ASA
9,0%
Norway
Yara International ASA
8,7%
Norway
Diversified Telecommunication
18,8
14,6
5,2
5,6
3,0
16,0
Chemicals
11,6
12,1
3,3
3,3
1,6
13,3
DNB ASA
7,2%
Norway
Banks
8,8
8,8
3,3
4,5
1,1
12,9
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
5,0%
Norway
Energy Equipment & Services
12,2
16,6
5,7
3,4
0,6
4,9
Borregaard ASA
4,6%
Norway
Chemicals
16,2
14,7
2,2
2,3
2,6
16,4
SpareBank 1 SMN
4,6%
Norway
Banks
7,3
7,6
3,9
3,8
0,9
12,8
Schibsted ASA
4,5%
Norway
Media
-3 590,0
64,4
0,7
0,8
7,8
-0,2
SalMar ASA
4,3%
Norway
Food Products
10,8
9,1
4,7
5,9
2,8
26,2
TOMRA Systems ASA
4,2%
Norway
Commercial Services & Supplies
21,4
16,0
2,6
3,1
2,9
13,5
Subsea 7 S.A.
4,1%
Norway
Energy Equipment & Services
4,9
7,0
5,9
5,9
0,5
10,0
Topp 10
56,2%
11,7
11,8
3,8
4,0
1,3
11,5
12,0
11,1
4,1
4,2
1,4
11,4
ODIN Norge
* NTM = Next 12 months
LTM = Last 12 months
Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
22
MSCI World Price, Earnings and P/E
23
MSCI World Price, Book Value and P/B
24
OECD Leading indicator
Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
25
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Economic growth forecast 2014 - updated October
26
Investments
- ODIN Norge
Akastor
Akastor is a spin-off from Aker Solution. The idea
was to establish a separate company for all noncore holdings of Aker Solution. Akastor is now an
oil-services investment company with a portfolio
of industrial holdings, real estate and other
investments. The company has a flexible
mandate for active ownership and long-term value
creation. Its mandate allows it to both buy and
sell, but we expect the company to
opportunistically maximise shareholder value
mainly through divestments.
Decline in capital spending and a high focus on
cutting costs among the oil and gas companies is
likely to have a negative impact on Akastor in the
short term.
Akastor’s portfolio holds a range of opportunities
for organic growth, but M&A appears to be an
inevitable tool to unlock value. The Aker group’s
proven deal-making track record and the new setup will allow for swift decision making and
flexibility.
28
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Akastor ASA
jan.13
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund TR
Akastor ASA
Oilfield Services/Equipment
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
5,288
8,261
13,549
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
54,077
3,870
2,260
46,267
2,886
1,605
35,667
1,762
1,555
44,413
3,064
2,249
42,804
2,295
997
20,997
-568
2,024
18,182
465
174
13.4
2.3
6.3
25.9
3.1
14.8
2.8
11.0
16.8
2.7
9.6
1.6
12.1
14.6
5.7
12.7
2.7
12.0
19.6
3.5
22.7
2.4
16.5
7.9
3.8
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Price
19.30
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
424.9
0.6
0.1
8.9
NOK
NOK
1.00
29.6
0.5
19.1
1.8
10.4
Atea
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
Atea is the leading IT infrastructure reseller in the
Nordics, with a turnover that is larger than the
aggregate of the next 10 companies.
120
Size is important in this industry for several
reasons: 1) The geographical reach is higher, 2)
The range of products to be offered is larger
(customers appreciate the on-stop-show concept)
3) Discounts from subcontractors are larger, 4)
The company can offer a pan-Nordic service
offering, 5) It is easier to grow through bolt-on
acquisitions at low prices.
40
Atea is rather resilliant to changes in economic
cycles, as the products are bread-and-butter for
customers, a model which proved to be strong
during the financial crisis. We believe Atea should
grow slightly higher than GDP.
Pricing of the company is moderate, but the
resilliant business combined with low interest
rates make the investment attractive in our view.
29
100
80
60
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Atea ASA
jan.13
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Atea ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Information Technology Services
7,891
419
8,310
Price
75.75
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
14,589
366
382
17,131
474
497
20,228
651
593
20,930
559
506
22,096
453
339
24,287
604
480
25,313
756
644
13.0
1.8
13.7
13.5
2.4
13.1
1.9
12.3
16.1
3.1
10.0
1.7
8.9
16.4
7.1
11.0
1.7
10.8
13.1
9.0
14.2
1.7
14.5
9.2
9.8
14.9
2.3
13.7
15.2
8.3
11.8
2.3
11.2
19.4
8.6
Borregaard
Performance - last 5 years
Borregaard has one of the world's most advanced
and sustainable biorefineries. By using natural,
sustainable raw materials, Borregaard produces
advanced and environmental friendly
biochemicals, biomaterials and bioethanol that
can replace oil-based products. Borregaard also
holds strong positions within ingredients and fine
chemicals. The company produces a wide range
of products, including ingredients for cement,
ceramics and agricultural products.
The company has a leading position in the lignin
market. With limited supply growth and stong
demand going forward, Borregaard is expected to
experience increase in earnings.
Despite strong market position and healthy
outlook, pricing of the company is considered to
be attractive. A weaker NOK improves the results
for Borregaard.
30
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Borregaard ASA
jan.13
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Borregaard ASA
Chemicals: Specialty
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
5,675
722
6,397
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
3,338
203
139
3,419
241
180
3,810
486
317
3,894
491
273
3,941
443
335
3,965
513
343
4,109
551
378
-
15.4
-
6.9
1.2
6.0
19.3
3.6
9.6
1.7
8.5
18.8
3.6
16.5
2.7
12.2
16.4
2.1
15.0
2.4
11.2
16.0
2.3
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Price
56.75
30.1
-
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
BW Offshore
BW Offshore owns and operates a fleet of
floating production vessels (FPSO) globally. Major
part of BW Offshore’s operation is in West Africa
and Latin America (Brazil and Mexico).
The market for FPSOs has been challenging with
low returns due to poor management of large and
complex projects. Several competitors have gone
out of business the last years and the market has
become consolidated.
BW Offshore’s existing fleet is generating a high
and predicitable cash flow from term-contracts. In
addition, BW Offshore has visible growth from a
new project, which is based on a newbuild vessel.
This project is taken on after an extensive feed
study paid by the client. This reduces the project
risk compared to earlier projects where old crude
tankers have been converted.
Dividends are paid on a quaterly basis and the
stock is trading on a high running dividend yield.
31
Performance - last 5 years
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
BW Offshore Limited
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
BW Offshore Limited
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
jan.15
Oilfield Services/Equipment
4,954
9,791
14,745
Price
7.20
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
409
45
-9
549
81
-100
846
122
-115
909
21
-
982
186
84
1,027
300
197
887
191
96
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
0.7
34.5
-0.9
0.0
51.7
1.3
34.6
-9.0
0.0
42.6
0.8
24.5
-8.6
4.5
0.6
104.8
0.0
10.1
5.1
0.7
13.5
7.5
6.4
3.6
0.5
7.7
15.2
12.5
6.8
0.5
12.7
7.7
12.7
DnB
Performance - last 5 years
DNB is Norway's largest financial services group
and one of the largest in the Nordic region. The
company offers a full range of financial services,
including loans, savings, advisory services,
insurance and pension products for retail and
corporate customers.
Net interest margin has increased the last few
years, and together with the bank’s strong
investment bank division (DnB Markets), earnings
have increased substantially.
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
DNB ASA
Although the bank navigated well through the
financial crisis, investors are concerned about
Norwegian economy given the deteriorated
outlook for the oil- and gas sector. We believe the
bank will manage to avoid large loan losses going
forward and find the valuation attractive.
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
DNB ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
32
jan.13
Financial Conglomerates
171,513
804,879
976,392
Price
105.30
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
93,105
8,505
93,376
14,739
90,515
12,984
98,989
13,561
98,124
17,522
49,739
28,946
20,832
50,378
29,374
20,353
10.0
1.1
9.7
2.1
11.8
1.6
14.0
4.2
6.7
0.8
11.3
4.3
8.2
0.9
11.0
2.9
11.3
1.3
13.0
2.4
8.4
1.1
12.9
3.5
8.4
1.0
11.8
4.7
Det Norske Oljeselskap
Det norske oljeselskap is an E&P company with
exploration, development and production activities
on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
Performance - last 5 years
350
300
250
Det norske oljeselskap acquired Marathon
Norway in mid 2014 to become a fully-fledged
E&P company. However, after this acquisition, det
norske became highly sensitive to changes in the
oil price, with a USD10/bbl change in the oil price
curve moving the net asset value estimate by
more than NOK 20 per share. The market is
nervous for the company’s funding situation with
the recent fall in oil prices. The main risks remain
continued declining oil prices and impairments
related to the Marathon acquisition.
However, underlying values are attractive, and
with an increasing oil price curve and large
discount to net asset value, we see strong upside
at current levels.
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.12
jan.13
Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
33
jan.11
Oil & Gas Production
7,744
3,255
10,999
Price
38.22
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
255
-1,232
-521
362
-1,813
-690
362
-1,005
-459
325
-1,693
-957
933
-1,572
-549
3,487
1,053
402
12,287
6,164
1,415
1.0
-22.3
0.0
0.9
-19.7
0.0
13.8
1.2
19.7
8.5
0.0
5.5
1.0
3.1
18.0
0.0
3.3
-13.4
0.0
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
3.8
-25.8
0.0
2.7
-15.8
0.0
NOK
NOK
1.00
Ekornes
Ekornes is a global and leading furniture
producer. The company’s main products are
chairs, sofas and mattresses.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
The majority of Ekornes’ production is located in
Norway. Although Norway is seen as a high-cost
country, a lot of the production is automized.
120
Ekornes has struggled to grow the last ten years.
Both the financial crises and the lack of exposure
to growing regions, such as Asia, have
contributed negatively. In addition, higher raw
material cost and more intense competitive
environment have affected margins negatively.
40
100
80
60
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Ekornes ASA
jan.13
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Ekornes ASA
Despite this, we believe the future is somewhat
brighter, something the last few quarters have
shown, driven by improved markets, optimized
operations and product development. Pricing is
moderate and we appreciate the strong market
posision and the solid balance sheet.
34
jan.15
Home Furnishings
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
3,462
-345
3,117
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
2,585
529
325
2,869
534
381
2,758
387
274
2,712
349
335
2,561
263
48
2,735
316
221
3,029
443
302
13.5
3.1
7.4
24.3
5.1
14.4
3.6
9.8
23.0
5.3
12.1
2.3
8.2
16.1
8.0
13.1
2.1
8.2
19.9
6.5
17.7
2.0
10.2
3.0
6.7
15.3
2.2
11.1
14.3
5.5
11.5
2.0
7.7
17.8
6.9
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Price
94.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
EMGS
EMGS is a leading global provider of
electromagnetic seismic data (EM). The company
has conducted impressive surveys in the Mexico
Gulf and in the Barents Sea. EM is used by the oil
industry as a supplement to ordinary seismic in
search for hydrocarbons.
Performance - last 5 years
400
350
300
250
200
150
EMGS is operating a fleet of four vessels. The
challenge has been to acheive full utilisation on a
continued basis. The willingnes to use the EM
technology among oil companies is increasing,
but more slowly than expected.
EMGS is a small company with a limited sales
force. Agreements and joint venture projects with
seismic companies like TGS, Spectrum and
Western Geco, where seismic data is being
bundled with EM data are expected to contribute
to increased sales and broader technology
adoption.
The company has a strong balance sheet and is
generating a positive cash flow. It can be viewed
as an option on increased adoption of EM and as
an aquisition candidate for larger seismic players.
35
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
ElectroMagnetic GeoServices ASA
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
ElectroMagnetic GeoServices ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Oilfield Services/Equipment
845
1
846
Price
4.23
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
59
-63
-81
75
-25
-55
172
25
10
201
29
12
145
-12
-15
192
19
11
199
16
8
2.5
-142.0
0.0
10.5
-428.6
0.0
5.6
16.2
20.5
0.0
16.1
4.1
15.3
12.0
0.0
2.6
-14.4
0.0
12.5
1.0
6.6
7.8
0.0
18.5
1.1
7.7
5.9
0.0
Gjensidige
Gjensidige is a leading Nordic general insurance
company. The company operates in several
verticals, including car insurance.
Combined ratio has the last couple of years been
low, driven by lower costs and diciplined market
participants. Claims have also been low.
We like the steady nature of general insurance
companies, and find the quality of Gjensidige’s
operations to be solid.
Gjensidige has recently paid a high ordinary
dividend. In addition, it has distributed large
extraordinary dividends, partly as a result of the
company divesting its shares in Storebrand, partly
due to increased financial leverage.
The company has a strong market position and is
generating high returns.
Performance - last 5 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.12
jan.13
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
Property/Casualty Insurance
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
62,200
7,301
69,501
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
18,578
2,305
20,796
2,950
21,472
2,748
22,442
4,280
22,234
3,671
20,322
5,319
4,037
21,204
5,007
3,695
11.0
-
13.2
1.3
13.1
6.0
10.4
1.5
11.9
6.6
10.2
1.7
17.5
7.9
16.3
2.3
14.1
9.8
15.4
2.9
11.9
18.7
8.0
16.3
2.9
12.7
17.7
5.5
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
36
jan.11
Price
124.40
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
Kongsberg Gruppen
Kongsberg Gruppen is a global company
operating within the oil&gas,- maritime, - and
defence sectors worldwide. The company
supplies high-technology systems and solutions.
The company is well-known for its strong R&D
capabilities and has proven asset-light model with
strong returns on capital.
Performance - last 5 years
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Kongsberg Gruppen operates in markets with
high barriers to entry and has strong niche
positions in different product groups.
Consequently the company has an outstanding
track record in value creation. We think the
company will continue its top-line growth based
on strong competitive positions built over the last
few years. The risk to our investment case is
austerity measures on the defence side which we
have seen over the last couple of years, and
falling capex among oil companies on the
offshore/maritime side. Government of Norway a
majority owner.
37
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
Aerospace & Defense
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
15,300
-2,108
13,192
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
13,816
1,263
820
15,497
2,113
1,495
15,128
2,035
1,431
15,652
1,866
1,325
16,323
1,659
1,228
16,659
1,555
1,134
17,085
1,728
1,240
15.2
3.1
7.3
29.4
3.3
12.6
3.7
6.3
34.9
2.5
8.7
2.6
5.6
27.7
3.2
10.8
2.4
7.0
22.6
3.0
13.2
2.4
8.0
19.0
3.2
13.5
2.1
7.9
15.8
3.5
12.2
2.0
6.8
16.0
3.9
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Price
127.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
Marine Harvest
Marine Harvest is one of the largest seafood
companies in the world, and the world’s largest
producer of Atlantic salmon.
The company controls the entire value chain, from
feed production and farming to processing and
smoking.
Salmon prices have increased the last years, as
capacity growth has not been able to meet the
market demand, a situation which is likely to
continue the next couple of years.
Performance - last 5 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Marine Harvest ASA
We believe demand for salmon is a mega-trend
and Marine Harvest has a strong market position.
Despite strong share price recently, valuation of
Marine Harvest is still considered to be attractive.
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Marine Harvest ASA
Agricultural Commodities/Milling
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
43,090
8,352
51,441
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
14,500
1,506
1,296
15,191
3,191
3,078
16,133
2,827
1,116
15,569
992
409
19,230
3,335
2,423
25,241
4,161
1,511
28,012
5,953
4,225
141.0
1.4
13.3
12.3
6.2
8.6
1.9
8.6
25.7
11.1
3.9
0.9
5.6
9.6
7.7
85.3
1.7
25.8
3.7
0.0
18.5
2.2
10.9
17.3
0.0
15.1
3.0
12.4
19.6
7.9
10.7
2.7
8.7
25.8
7.5
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
38
jan.13
Price
105.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Norwegian Air is a leading low-cost carrier in
Europe. Recently, the company established longhaul operations, mainly on routes from Europe to
America and from Europe to Asia.
Norwegian Air has grown substantially the last
few years as the company has a large aircraft
order with Boeing and Airbus. Demand in the
airline industry has been strong, so despite a
sharp increase in the fleet, industry load factor is
at a record high.
Going forward, Norwegian Air will continue to
have a strong growth in new aircrafts being
delivered.
The lower fuel price will help Norwegian’s
earnings going forward, while the weak NOK
affects negatively.
Pricing of the company is high, but given the
growth in earnings capacity and low fuel cost,
earnings will grow strongly forward.
39
Performance - last 5 years
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Airlines
10,401
4,297
14,698
Price
295.80
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
7,309
523
446
8,400
-3
152
10,529
121
122
12,841
722
457
15,511
399
322
19,451
-558
-416
21,197
1,170
730
12.6
2.7
7.7
35.7
0.0
20.6
2.2
9.0
0.0
9.0
0.9
40.0
6.6
0.0
16.8
2.1
12.3
20.9
0.0
12.3
2.3
27.6
12.4
0.0
4.3
-14.0
0.0
NOK
NOK
1.00
15.5
3.5
18.2
22.3
0.0
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Olav Thon owns or operates most of the largest
shopping centers in Norway. Recently, Olav Thon
Eiendomsselskap has also expanded to Sweden.
Although shopping from internet represent a
challenging trend, we find the quality of the
company’s assets and the strong operating
performance to be supportive for further growth.
Olav Thon has a low financial leverage, enablig
the company to take advantage of opportunities to
grow further.
The current low interest rate scenario is
favourable for real-estate companies as
borrowing cost is low. Low interest rate is also
making real-estate an attractive asset class.
Valuation is attractive and we do not think it
reflects the company’s strong track-record and
good prospects.
40
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
jan.15
Real Estate Development
13,731
14,604
28,335
Price
129.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
2,204
555
2,647
1,324
2,834
724
2,946
1,119
3,055
1,648
3,023
1,871
1,010
3,144
1,973
963
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
106.9
1.0
7.1
0.8
11.0
1.1
15.0
1.0
6.7
0.9
7.4
1.3
14.6
0.9
10.5
1.3
5.9
0.9
13.6
1.3
15.3
1.0
15.3
6.6
1.2
14.2
0.9
14.4
6.7
1.3
Opera Software
Opera has two divisions, the browser division,
and the mobile advertising division.
The browser division has more than 350m users,
most of them on a mobile platform. The main
advantage with the Opera browser is the limited
data usage, which is both a benefit for telecom
operators as its saves network CAPEX, but also
for consumers as it enables data access in areas
with congestion or weak coverage.
The mobile advertising division, which was
introduced a few years ago through acquisitions,
has a strong market posision and a strong outook.
More advertising spending now finds its way
through mobile platforms.
The company is in the process of building a
strong market position in markets with promising
outlook.
Performance - last 5 years
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
jan.10
jan.12
jan.13
Opera Software ASA
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Opera Software ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
41
jan.11
Internet Software/Services
13,805
-627
13,178
Price
96.40
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
97
9
5
114
17
4
160
38
25
216
50
17
300
62
60
494
79
20
740
144
98
41.3
4.0
34.8
5.1
0.8
125.5
5.5
28.9
3.8
0.6
34.3
5.0
14.0
21.5
0.7
30.5
4.8
12.0
13.2
0.7
124.1
9.8
27.0
26.2
0.3
31.4
4.1
22.3
12.9
0.3
18.0
3.3
12.1
18.1
0.4
Petroleum Geo Service
Petroleum Geo services (PGS) offers a broad
range of products including seismic and
electromagnetic services, data acquisition,
processing, reservoir analysis/interpretation and
multi-client library data helping oil companies to
find oil and gas reserves offshore.
In a currently challenging seismic market, PGS is
best positioned in the industry with the most
modern and cost efficient fleet and being able to
differentiate itself from peers due to its
Geostreamer technology.
PGS has a solid liquidity reserve and a strong
balance sheet to navigate through the downturn in
the seismic market and take delivery of two
newbuilds coming on stream in 2016.
The sharp drop in the share price in 2014 has
made the valuation attractive and we find good
risk/reward at current levels.
42
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Oilfield Services/Equipment
8,821
4,538
13,359
Price
40.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
1,350
387
174
1,135
137
-16
1,253
137
33
1,518
292
186
1,502
396
238
1,433
205
69
1,330
122
55
9.8
1.6
7.0
13.4
0.0
2.2
24.3
-1.1
0.0
34.7
1.4
22.5
1.8
1.3
23.1
1.9
13.9
10.2
1.6
10.6
1.3
8.6
12.1
3.0
11.7
0.6
10.6
4.9
4.6
19.7
0.6
18.4
2.8
2.3
Prosafe
Prosafe is the world’s leading owner and operator
of semi-submersible accommodation vessels. The
fleet consists of a combination of dynamically
positioned and anchored vessels able to operate
in nearly all offshore environments.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
Prosafe has a track record of profitable growth
with high return on invested capital, based on
term contracts and opportunistic counter cyclical
M&A.
The market has historically been a niche market
with few competitors, however a number of new
companies are now entering the market with
newbuilding orders. Increasing supply increases
risk of pressure on dayrates going forward.
Prosafes backlog of contracts is currently at
record levels giving visiblity the next few years.
Recent share price drop has made the valuation
attractive for long-term investors.
43
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
ProSafe SE
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
ProSafe SE
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
jan.15
Oilfield Services/Equipment
5,522
4,042
9,564
Price
23.40
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
369
189
127
397
176
199
401
143
158
424
136
178
523
245
199
547
242
189
657
285
212
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
7.5
5.7
10.6
66.7
1.8
10.6
4.4
13.0
61.4
4.0
11.0
3.5
16.3
34.5
5.5
10.7
3.7
18.2
36.7
6.9
10.3
2.6
10.4
31.8
7.1
3.9
1.0
7.1
24.7
13.8
3.3
0.8
6.6
23.2
6.9
Salmar
.
Performance - last 5 years
Salmar was established in 1991. The company is
mainly a salmon farming company, but in addition,
the company has a compherhensive prosessing
activity.
The company’s assets are located in Mid-Norway,
Norhern Norway, as well as some production in
Scotland through a joint venture.
Salmon prices have increased the last years, as
capacity growth has not been able to meet the
growth in market demand, a situation which is
likely to continue the next couple of years.
Salmar has historically shown good cost control
and is seen as one of the best salmon farmers in
the world.
Pricing of the company is considered to be
attractive, given the the bright outlook for the
industry and the company’s strong position.
44
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
SalMar ASA
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
SalMar ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy
15,012
1,770
16,783
Price
132.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2,376
595
471
3,400
945
947
3,796
572
145
4,180
324
467
6,246
1,263
1,790
7,104
1,834
1,253
7,598
2,136
1,542
9.7
3.0
9.3
31.3
3.8
8.4
3.0
8.7
46.8
5.8
6.8
1.5
10.3
6.5
3.3
21.0
1.9
24.4
19.0
0.0
5.8
2.0
8.2
47.4
8.1
11.2
2.9
9.4
26.2
4.5
9.7
2.6
8.0
26.5
5.8
Schibsted
Schibsted is a media company with two main
business areas; newspapers and online
classified.
Weak markets for ordinary newspapers, have led
Schibsted to focus on cost-cuts and conversion to
online. Schibsted owns Aftenposten, VG, several
regional newspapers, Aftonbladet and Svenska
Dagbladet.
Schibsted also owns several leading online
classified portals in several European countries,
in addition to having strong positions in large and
emerging countries such as Brazil and Malaysia.
This is a winner-takes-it-all industry, where
margins are exceptionally higher for the leaders.
An agreement with South African Naspers have
led to Schibsted to be part of joint ventures that
have the number one positions in several
emerging markets.
Threats include other online portals such as
Facebook and LinkedIn.
45
Performance - last 5 years
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Schibsted ASA
jan.13
jan.14
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Schibsted ASA
Publishing: Newspapers
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
52,069
1,131
53,200
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
12,745
899
68
13,768
1,532
2,794
14,378
1,641
742
14,763
1,515
185
15,232
1,169
1,536
15,001
762
43
15,795
1,718
878
2.6
14.8
1.6
1.2
15.7
3.3
12.7
48.5
1.5
6.4
2.5
10.4
11.3
2.3
35.7
3.9
17.8
3.1
1.5
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Price
482.10
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
7.1
38.0
23.0
0.9
7.9
70.3
-0.1
0.7
NOK
NOK
1.00
62.9
6.8
30.9
10.9
0.8
SpareBank 1 SMN
SpareBank 1 SMN is the leading financial
institution in the Mid-Norway region, and one of
six members of SpareBank 1 Alliansen.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
As the leading savingsbank in the region, the
company offers all services, including investment
banking.
120
The bank has historically shown a healthy growth
and solid return on equity based on good
operations and limited loan losses.
40
The last years, interest margin has widened from
low levels after the financial crisis, enabling the
bank to show a rapid earnings growth.
Pricing of the bank is low despite a solid core
capital position and decent prospects.
100
80
60
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
SpareBank 1 SMN
jan.13
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
SpareBank 1 SMN
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
46
jan.12
Regional Banks
7,336
38,652
45,988
Price
56.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
4,320
931
4,329
1,017
4,875
1,016
5,191
1,052
5,817
1,360
3,997
2,183
1,742
3,860
2,084
1,507
3.7
0.6
16.0
4.7
4.8
0.7
14.6
5.3
3.5
0.5
12.7
5.7
3.6
0.5
11.6
4.5
6.8
0.7
12.9
3.1
7.0
0.9
12.8
4.0
7.6
0.8
11.0
4.0
SpareBank 1 SR
SpareBank 1 SR is the leading financial institution
in the Rogaland region, and one of six members
of SpareBank 1 Alliansen.
As the leading savingsbank in the region, the
company offers all services, including investment
banking and asset management.
The bank has historically shown a healthy growth
and solid return on equity based on good
operations and limited loan losses.
The last years, interest margin has widened from
low levels after the financial crisis, enabling the
bank to show a rapid earnings growth.
With recent decline in oil price, outlook has
weakened, but in our view, the market expects too
high losses going forward, hence valuation is
considered to be attractive.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.12
jan.13
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
47
jan.11
Regional Banks
13,107
65,238
78,345
Price
51.25
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
6,288
1,109
6,189
1,317
6,709
1,081
7,002
1,361
7,622
1,860
4,900
2,853
2,096
4,776
2,697
1,845
5.7
0.7
15.8
3.1
4.7
0.8
15.1
4.4
4.6
0.5
11.3
4.5
5.5
0.8
12.2
4.0
9.4
1.1
13.9
2.6
6.7
0.8
12.5
4.0
7.1
0.8
10.8
4.4
Stolt Nielsen
Stolt-Nielsen Limited is a leading global provider
of bulk-liquid transportation, storage and
distribution services through its three largest
operating units: Stolt Tankers, Stolthaven
Terminals and Stolt Tank Containers. Stolt Sea
Farm is a leading producer of turbot, sole and
caviar. Stolt Bitumen Services is developing a
bitumen distribution network in Asia Pacific.
Stolt-Nielsen Gas is focused on the development
of opportunities in LPG shipping.
The US chemical industry is enjoying low cost
feedstock and this should give rise to improving
demand for chemical shipping services. Moderate
fleet growth coupled with a persisting cost
advantage for the US chemical industry should
give rise to an improving market. Despite the
uptick in new orders, the tanker fleet is expected
to grow by 4% annually in 2015 and 2016.
The recent sharp drop in share price has made
valuation attractive.
48
Performance - last 5 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Stolt-Nielsen Limited
jan.13
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Stolt-Nielsen Limited
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Marine Shipping
8,017
10,048
18,065
Price
125.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
1,645
102
95
1,794
130
113
2,029
129
93
2,072
81
70
2,100
116
86
2,156
180
83
2,273
242
109
5.9
0.6
18.1
6.8
3.7
12.2
0.8
16.3
7.5
3.8
10.1
0.8
20.5
5.7
5.0
13.4
0.7
31.3
4.8
4.3
25.0
1.0
29.3
5.7
3.5
15.4
0.6
16.4
4.0
6.0
8.4
0.6
12.9
7.1
6.1
Subsea 7
Subsea 7 is one of the world’s leading global
contractors in seabed-to-surface engineering,
construction and services to the oil industry. The
company provides technical solutions to enable
the delivery of complex projects in all water
depths and challenging environments.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
The subsea construction market is characterised
by few players and a high number of complex
projects. Order intake is therefore lumpy and the
industry is typically late cyclical. Current order
backlog is strong for execution the next couple of
years.
Oil companies are reducing E&P spending by
postponing projects and there are currently few
tenders in the market.
Historically, earnings and return on capital have
been decent, but is dependent on good project
execution.
Recent sharp price drop has made valuation
attractive. Subsea 7 is paying dividends and is
buying back own shares.
49
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Subsea 7 S.A.
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Subsea 7 S.A.
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Oilfield Services/Equipment
24,364
1,216
25,580
Price
73.35
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2,209
308
238
2,369
392
221
5,055
559
391
6,297
756
830
6,297
572
348
7,091
1,011
739
6,027
735
519
3.9
2.6
7.3
26.3
1.9
16.8
3.5
10.8
19.7
0.3
12.2
1.1
13.1
10.4
0.0
9.5
1.3
11.6
13.9
0.0
16.3
1.0
13.3
5.4
0.0
4.7
0.5
3.5
10.0
6.1
6.5
0.4
5.0
6.7
6.2
Telenor
Telenor is a global leading telecom operator, with
operations in 13 countries in Europe and Asia.
The company is mainly focused on mobile
operations, but also offers fixed line telephony in
Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as owning
a broadcasting business in Norway.
Telecom operators face challenges in mature
markets due to price competition and pressure on
networks. Telenor does however have substantial
part of its operations in emerging markets such as
India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, which still offers
upside potential through increased penetration
and data usage.
Telenor, with top 3 positions in all markets (except
India), should therefore be able to grow earnings
going forward.
Performance - last 5 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.12
jan.13
Telenor ASA
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Telenor ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
50
jan.11
Major Telecommunications
236,329
45,287
281,616
Price
157.40
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
97,650
16,372
9,063
94,843
13,086
14,749
98,516
15,217
7,165
101,718
17,662
10,067
104,027
21,537
8,748
110,040
25,459
12,200
115,288
25,688
15,916
15.9
1.8
10.4
11.6
2.3
10.7
1.8
14.1
18.0
3.7
13.3
1.8
11.8
8.3
4.8
47.9
2.4
12.4
12.7
5.1
15.3
2.9
12.5
11.9
4.7
19.6
3.1
11.0
16.0
5.0
15.1
3.0
10.9
19.7
5.4
Tomra
Tomra has two core business areas; 1) the
traditional reverse vending machines for
cans/bottles (Collection Solutions), and 2) the
sorting divisions, which has food, mining and
waste as core areas (Sorting Solutions).
Tomra is the clear leader in Collection Solutions,
with a market share around 70%. Growth is
normally low single digit, but make jumps
whenever a new market is introduced.
Tomra is also the leader within Sorting Solutions.
The market for solutions to sort waste, food and
certain mining verticals is considered to be a
mega-trend. Growth is double digit, and the
long-term prospects are promising.
Tomra has a strong market position in a market
that has promising prospects for further growth.
Performance - last 5 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.13
TOMRA Systems ASA
jan.14
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
jan.15
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
TOMRA Systems ASA
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
51
jan.12
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
8,659
1,392
10,052
Price
58.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
3,321
387
249
3,496
514
74
3,690
629
403
4,073
669
440
4,602
601
386
4,802
608
394
5,137
782
525
14.4
2.3
11.7
12.9
1.9
155.2
3.3
12.1
4.0
1.5
15.5
2.9
10.4
20.3
2.3
20.7
3.5
13.3
19.9
2.4
19.6
3.2
16.4
15.4
2.3
21.8
3.0
16.3
13.5
2.6
16.5
2.7
12.4
16.4
3.1
Veidekke
Veidekke is a leading construction company in
Scandianavia. The company is also one of the
biggest real-estate developers in Norway and
Sweden.
After some difficult years from 2009-11, volumes
have again picked up, driven both by public and
private activity. Both infrastructure as well as
buildings are important areas for the company.
Outlook is good. Too few residental houses are
being built and governments seem to be positive
in relation to expanding infrastructure activities
within tunnels, roads and railroads.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
Veidekke ASA
jan.13
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Veidekke ASA
The company generates high return on equity. We
find the valuation attractive and believe the
company has a strong position in a strong market.
Engineering & Construction
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
10,028
712
10,740
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
15,452
389
402
15,644
334
345
17,632
310
638
19,729
531
448
21,680
537
544
23,841
925
760
24,894
1,097
880
16.6
3.6
17.6
19.6
5.0
15.4
3.7
22.4
17.3
4.8
11.4
2.6
18.6
30.3
6.9
13.3
2.9
14.7
19.9
5.8
12.2
3.0
13.6
23.3
5.9
13.7
3.6
9.5
26.5
4.4
11.5
3.2
9.4
27.4
4.9
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
52
jan.15
Price
75.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding is a global maritime
industry group focusing on shipping and
integrated logistics services for cars and rolling
cargo through our shareholding in Wilh.
Wilhelmsen ASA. Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding also
occupy a leading position in the global maritime
service industry through Wilhelmsen Maritime
Services.
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
The historical trend for transport demand was
closely related to number of cars sold: the
incremental growth in car sales tended to be
driven by imported cars. In key markets, this is
still the case, but the manufacturing locations are
moving closer to the consumers, therby reducing
demand for transportation. Demand for high and
heavy cargo, dominated by machinery for mining,
agriculture and construction, is still slow.
The stock trades at a historical high discount to
the sum of the parts.
53
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class B
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class B
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
jan.15
Marine Shipping
7,608
6,619
14,227
Price
161.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
USD
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
1,015
2
331
1,076
42
60
1,247
99
188
1,325
182
329
1,313
123
260
3,328
305
151
3,397
357
201
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
4.1
0.8
930.8
30.5
1.6
21.3
1.2
56.0
5.0
0.3
5.1
0.8
27.4
13.9
3.4
3.5
0.8
15.5
22.3
4.3
7.1
0.9
25.9
15.1
3.3
6.7
0.6
7.3
8.4
3.6
4.9
0.5
5.9
10.6
4.0
Yara
Yara is a leading global fertilizer company. The
company has operations in more than 50
countries and offers the most compherhensive
range of fertilizer products in the industry,
including ammonia, nitrates, NPK and specialty
fertilizers.
Fertilizers are important for optimising agricultural
production. Demand for fertilizers is increasing
annually by approximately 2%, twice the worlds’
population growth.
Yara’s earnings will increase as a result of lower
gas prices in most parts of the world, enabling
lower costs.
There are many moving parts determining Yara’s
future earnings, such as weather, gas prices,
fertilizer prices, Chinese tax regime, nitrate
premiums etc. However, historically the company
has navigated impressively in this market.
Valuation is considered to be attractive.
54
Performance - last 5 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan.10
jan.11
jan.12
jan.13
Yara International ASA
jan.14
Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Yara International ASA
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
jan.15
Chemicals: Agricultural
108,696
3,379
112,075
Price
393.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
60,867
1,122
3,782
64,006
5,989
8,729
77,726
10,714
12,066
83,997
10,945
10,602
84,668
8,126
5,748
93,379
10,654
7,541
98,680
10,899
8,024
299.7
2.7
82.6
12.9
1.7
11.3
2.9
17.9
27.3
1.6
6.7
1.7
7.0
30.2
2.8
6.6
1.6
7.3
22.9
4.2
9.3
1.4
9.6
11.2
4.1
13.7
1.8
10.7
13.5
2.8
13.6
1.7
10.4
12.4
3.0
Investment Objective
Long term value creation
We prefer performing companies, with
strong long term prospects, available
at favourable prices
Investment Philosophy
Performance - prospects - price
Performance
Operating excellence
Prospects
Strong competitive position
Price
Favourable valuation
«Doing good business with bad people simply
doesn’t work»
Warren E. Buffet
«We don’t focus at beating the market short term.
We want our holdings to beat their competitors
long term»
Börje Ekholm
«The bitterness of poor quality remains long after
the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten»
Unknown
Om ODIN Norge
ODIN Norge är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som
investerar på den norska aktiemarknaden.
Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning
än den norska aktiemarknaden, mätt med fondens
referensindex.
57
Fakta om fonden
Startår
26.06.1992
Referensindex
OSEFX Oslo Børs Fondindeks
Basvaluta
NOK
Förvaltningsavgift
2%
Tecknings-/inlösenavgift
0%
Minsta teckningsbelopp
500 EUR
Om förvaltaren
Fondens ansvariga förvaltare Jarle Sjo kom till ODIN
i januari 2011 och blev investeringsdirektör i
december 2011. Han har en magisterexamen i finans
och lång erfarenhet av portföljförvaltning och analys
av shipping- och offshoresektorn.
Jarles långa erfarenhet från och djupa insikt i
sjöfarts- och offshoresektorn i synnerhet och aktiv
portföljförvaltning i allmänhet har gjort honom till en
erkänd sakkunnig i norska medier.
58
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09 4735 5100
[email protected]
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Vi påminner om att…
Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen,
förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för köp och förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om
aktiekurserna faller.
Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har
använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta
eller fullständiga.
Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det
innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här
rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna
riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med
värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard.
Mer information finns på www.odin.fi/se
60