Daily Afghanistan

Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Significant Events
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Flashpoint & Outlook Summaries
A VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul has killed at least three and injured over 40 people.
Islamic State (IS) ramps up media campaign
in Afghanistan
The IS in Afghanistan has increased its exposure
in international media by making statements and
posting videos online. The group appears to be
trying to recruit new members by exploiting
increasing cracks in Taliban structures.
Key Pakistani-Afghan trade deals stall.
Media report on IS in Nangarhar Province.
Breaking news: Magnetic IED attack on a vehicle in PD#1, Kabul has injured two people.
Threat table
Region
Central
North
East
South-East
South
West
Kidnap
Low
Moderate
High
High
High
Moderate-High
Crime
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
IED
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
High-Extreme
Moderate
Suicide Attack
Low-Moderate
Low-Moderate
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Low-Moderate
SAF
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
High
Moderate
IDF
Low
Low
High-Extreme
High
Low-Moderate
Low
CPX
Low-Moderate
Low
High-Extreme
Moderate-High
High
Low-Moderate
RTA
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Moderate-High
Increased threat IVO KAIA/Barons Hotel and
associated areas
Concentrations of international HVTs IVO the
Barons Hotel, Airport Circle and Massood Circle
in Kabul City translate into an increased threat of
attack/collateral damage in these areas. Reports
of IDF in this vicinity are escalating.
Possible increase in AGE capabilities in
South East
It is likely that Taliban ranks in the South East will
be bolstered with many of the 350-450 inmates
who escaped from prison in Ghazni Province, this
week during a Taliban attack.
Key dates
23-26 September 2015 — Arafat and Eid Qurban
24 October 2015 — Ashura
Threat scale:
Minimal
Low
Moderate
High
24 December 2015 — Prophet’s Birthday
Extreme
*Reviewed and re-graded accordingy as of September 17, 2015
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Incident Mapping
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Significant Incidents
NORTH
SAF – 16Sep0940hrs, Badakhshan Province, Jurm District: AGE ambushed ALP personnel; 4 x ALP
KIA
IED – 16Sep1000hrs, Balkh Province, Chimtal District: IED detonated targeting ANP Ranger Vehicle; 2
x ALP, 2 x ANP and 2 x ATM WIA
SAF – 16Sep0200hrs, Sari Pul Province, Kohistanat District: AGE attacked an ALP CP; 3 x ALP KIA, 2 x
ALP WIA
CENTRAL
VBIED – 16Sep1045hrs, Kabul Province, Paghman District: VBIED detonated targeting ANP District
HQ; 1 x ANP and 2 x HCN KIA, 6 x ANP and 38 x HCN WIA
EAST
SAF – 16Sep0440hrs, Nangarhar Province, Pachir wa Agam District: AGE attacked ABP CP in the
Lishagi area; 3 x ABP WIA
SOUTH EAST
SAF – 16Sep1100hrs, Paktya Province, Ahmadabad District: AGE ambushed ANP personnel in the
bazaar area; 1 x ANP and 5 x HCN WIA
SOUTH
SAF – 16Sep0300hrs, Uruzgan Province, Khas Uruzgan District: AGE attacked ALP and ANP CPs; 1 x
ALP KIA, 2 x ANP WIA
SAF – 16Sep0600hrs, Uruzgan Province, Khas Uruzgan District: AGE attacked ANP HQ; 6 x ANP (inc
ANP HQ Commander) WIA
IED – 15Sep, Helmand Province, Naw Zad District: IED detonated targeting ALP and ANP convoy; 2 x
ANP and 3 x ALP KIA, 3 x ANP and 1 x ALP WIA
CPX – 15Sep0800hrs, Helmand Province, Kajaki District: AGE attacked ANSF CPs in the Poza and
Maktab areas of the district result in 14 CPs (7 x ANCOP, 3 x ANP and 4 x ALP) falling to AGE control; 3
x ALP KIA, 1 x ANP WIA, 11 x ANP MIA
WEST
IED – 16Sep1230hrs, Farah Province, Bala Boluk District: IED detonated targeting a Toyota Corolla; 2 x
HCN KIA, 4 x HCN WIA
IED – 16Sep0800 and 1720hrs, Ghor Province, Chahar Sadah District: 2 x IED detonated targeting
HCNs; 3 x HCN KIA
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Current Assessment
Short Term Outlook
Following an attack on a prison in Ghazni Province, activity is likely to increase in the South East region
as Taliban ranks are augmented by many of the 350-450 former inmates released during the attack.
Threat levels in Kabul are expected to remain at current levels in coming weeks. Regular reports of
IEDs and Magnetic IEDs can be expected, targeting GIRoA and ANSF vehicles. High profile attacks
may occur intermittently with likely targets and TTPs being:
- CPX attacks on LSAs and international guest houses, usually involving VBIED/BBIED attempts to
breach compound
- VBIED attacks against high profile armored vehicles associated with IC, IM or GIRoA
- IDF/rocket attacks against large targets such as HKIA and Bagram air base
Routes IVO Massood to Airport Circle and continuing past the Barons Hotel, will remain under increased
threat due to a plethora of HVTs in the area. Frequency of transit through these areas should be
restricted accordingly.
Criminal related incidents targeting IC are likely to continue. Abduction of personnel and hijacking of
high value vehicles will remain focused on targets identified as having lower levels of security.
Reduction of routines (timings and location) will reduce risks.
Large scale assaults are likely to continue in the more remote areas of the country, as previously
witnessed in areas including Helmand, Uruzgan, Kunduz and Badakhshan Provinces. AGE intent is to
increase influence in these areas, seize ANSF equipment and destroy ANSF infrastructure. However
these groups will seek to avoid significant casualties by quickly withdrawing when faced with ANSF
reinforcements or airstrikes.
In the short term Islamic State aligned groups in Eastern Afghanistan will continue to focus on
recruitment and enhancing capabilities. Small attacks against ANSF and opposition AGE groups can
be expected although the main focus of these incidents is for propaganda and recruitment purposes.
Medium to Long Term Flash Points
Following the announcement of the death of Mullah Omar, and the subsequent appointment of Mullah
Mansour, the Taliban is facing an important juncture. Some Taliban groupings are beginning to break
away and are either joining newly formed groups or existing groups such as the IS. This fracturing,
although always likely to occur to some degree in the long term, will complicate the peace process
between the Taliban and GIRoA.
As winter weather approaches, AGE activity is likely to see a general reduction. This will be more
pronounced in some of the more mountainous and rural areas (such as the North Eastern region), where
heavy snow may discourage ANSF and AGE movements. Activity is likely to reduce from October
onwards, however, much will depend on weather and seasonal conditions.
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
As IS recruitment continues in the short term, it is likely that IS capabilities in the East will grow. Their
recently stated intent to eliminate the Durand Line may be backed up by attacks on both Afghan and
Pakistan positions in the border areas. In the longer term high profile attacks, which will serve to
demonstrate IS capabilities and provide further recruitment capabilities, are possible.
As the National Unity Government (NUG) approaches the beginning of its second year in office, many
officials are beginning to question the ability of a divided government to effectively rule in Afghanistan.
Rumors of an interim government being formed to replace the NUG have already been circulating and
public demonstrations on a variety of issues have been increasing. As the second year in office
progresses, pressure will increase on the NUG to demonstrate tangible evidence of improvements,
primarily in areas of security and the economy.
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Media Headlines
Fresh terror for Afghans as Isil takes Taliban country :
In Achin, a small district in eastern Afghanistan, governor Haji Ghalib Mujahid has called for an uprising.
“Everyone who has a gun, a sword, anything, should fight these cruel people,” he said. Mr Mujahid’s district,
traditionally a Taliban hotbed, has recently been besieged by another insurgent force: Islamic State of Iraq and
the Levant (Isil). Although experts believe Isil currently poses only a limited threat to Afghanistan’s overall
security, they appear to be flourishing in those areas where they have established a presence. In Achin and
neighbouring Shinwar districts, locals say hundreds have been killed, including dozens of civilians, in a brutal
turf war between Isil and Taliban. Thousands more have been forced to flee.
Most of the self-declared Isil groups in Afghanistan are believed to be made up of disaffected Taliban members
who have pledged allegiance to Isil leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, often for propaganda or fundraising purposes.
Formal links with the Isil leadership in Syria and Iraq have been difficult to prove. However, in January Isil
spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani acknowledged the expansion of the jihadist group to Afghanistan for the
first time. Isil is believed to be actively recruiting in Afghanistan, attempting to take advantage of divisions within
the Taliban’s ranks in the wake of Taliban founder Mullah Omar’s death, despite warnings from the Taliban to
stay out its heartland.
Over the course of a few bloody weeks, Isil jihadists have reportedly pushed Taliban out from Achin and Shinwar
districts. They appear to be well funded and equipped, wearing Isil’s standard black uniforms and fighting under
its black flags. Locals also say Isil is terrorising families and ruling villages with an iron fist. Malik Hakim, a tribal
elder from Achin, said Isil fighters confiscated his harvest, his family’s only source of income. “There was no one
to stop them,” he said. The jihadists have also demanded that tribes hand over young men to fight for them,
including boys as young as 13, said Haji Azim Khan, another tribal elder. Others were induced to join the ranks
with a monthly salary of around $400 (£260), double what the average Afghan soldier receives. Isil fighters were
also going from house to house to identify young women and girls and forcing marriages on them, said Mr
Khan. Anyone who had previously worked with the government was considered a spy and had been executed,
he said. Isil have showcased their brutality in Achin through graphic propaganda videos of beheadings and
what appears to be militants blowing up tribal elders with explosives. Trying children of the executed tribal
elders appeared on local television this week, shocking the Afghan public. The US has launched several drone
strikes against Isil militants recently in Nangarhar, reportedly killing several commanders.
Mr Mujahid said he was aware of government plans for an operation against Isil, but at least until that point his
district was badly suffering. “No one really cares enough to eliminate Isil, not the Afghan government, the
foreign forces or even the UN,” he said. The battles between Isil and Taliban illustrate divisions within the global
jihadi movement, but the faultlines are complex and frequently shifting. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri,
who has pledged allegiance to new Taliban leader Mullah Mansour, earlier this month hinted his group might be
willing to work with Isil. If realised, that would be a stark about-turn in his previous opposition to the group, which
he disowned in 2014 after it ignored his instructions to stay out of Syria.
The Telegraph : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11870273/Fresh-terror-for-Afghansas-Isil-takes-Taliban-country.html
Key Pakistani-Afghan trade deals stall on India, souring ties :
* Deals envisage tripling of Afghan-Pakistan trade
* Pakistan objects to Indian goods crossing its territory
* Frosty relations see row spill into the open
* Commerce is key to regional stability
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
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Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
* Commerce is key to regional stability
* Iran a potential beneficiary of delays
Pakistan and Afghanistan have shelved a raft of agreements that promised to more than triple cross-border
trade, officials said, as economic ties seen as key to regional stability fall victim to rivalry and suspicion. Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani struck the trade deals with Pakistan soon after taking office last year as part of a broader
rapprochement that included plans to share intelligence on Taliban insurgents active in both countries.
That cooperation was aimed at tackling the Islamist militant movement, which has separate Afghan and
Pakistani branches whose violent campaigns kill thousands of people each year and hamper much-needed
development. The trade deals were supposed to be a step towards warmer relations and boosting AfghanistanPakistan trade from $1.6 billion now to $5 billion by 2017. But officials told Reuters that the agreements, which
include reducing tariffs and granting each other preferential trade status, have stalled.
"There has been no progress or further meetings for months since those agreements were signed," said
Musafer Qoqandi, the Afghan Commerce Ministry's spokesman. The key bone of contention was whether
Pakistan would allow trade from old rival India to cross its territory. The setback first emerged in April, but
neither side was willing to discuss it amid attempts to salvage the agreements and maintain the appearance of
unity.
But political relations deteriorated after a spate of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan last month, including several
large blasts in Kabul, and the impasse over trade spilled into the open, further complicating efforts to save the
deals. Some Afghans blame Pakistan for supporting the Taliban, charges that Pakistan denies. As diplomats
from the two countries swap blame, some are wondering how they can control militancy together if they cannot
make progress on trade.
DISAGREEMENTS OVER INDIA
Muzamel Shinware, Afghanistan's deputy commerce minister, told Reuters that it was "illogical and unfair" not to
include Indian trade crossing Pakistan into Afghanistan. Under the terms of the agreements, Pakistan was to
have been allowed to ship its goods to markets in Central Asia and beyond via Afghan territory. But the row over
Indian goods has jeopardised the deals, with India and Pakistan locked in a decades-old standoff. "If you put
India on the table, then the whole thing stops," said a Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Pakistani Commerce Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan confirmed that progress was stalled and blamed
Afghanistan for failing to deliver promised lower levies on Pakistani transit trade and to begin negotiations on a
preferential trade agreement.
Afghanistan, in turn, blamed Pakistan.
A senior Afghan official, who asked not to be named, said that the progress on trade made since Ghani's visit to
Pakistan in November "could, frankly, have been made in two weeks if we were serious". In November, Pakistan
promised faster clearance of Afghan cargo, greater access for Afghan traders to Pakistan's railway system and
to set up 'parallel track' Afghan customs at Karachi. Dastgir Khan says most of those steps have been
implemented, although some officials privately concede that progress in recent months has stalled as relations
chilled. Part of the problem is that the Pakistani military retains the final say in bilateral ties, experts say. The
powerful military has ruled Pakistan for around half its history and heavily influences security and foreign policy.
One country benefitting from the chill between Pakistan and Afghanistan is neighbouring Iran. Afghan transit
trade with Iran has increased steadily since 2007. In 2011, it supplanted Pakistan as Afghanistan's largest transit
trade partner in terms of containers shipped, according to SDPI. "Perhaps Pakistan thinks that it is twisting
Afghanistan's arm by stopping these trade initiatives," said Ahmed of SDPI. "But very soon, Iran could make
Pakistan irrelevant."
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
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Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Reuters : http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/16/pakistan-afghanistan-trade-idUSL4N11L2TF20150916
Events in Detail
VBIED attack on ANP HQ in Paghman District, Kabul
At approx 1045hrs yesterday morning (September 16), a VBIED detonated targeting the ANP District HQ in
Paghman District, Kabul. Official reports state that the device was a ‘Mazda truck’ filled with explosives. At least
three people were killed in the attack including the head of the Criminal Investigations Department (CID).
Approx. 44 more people were wounded, mainly HCNs. The Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack.
COMMENT: ‘The incident was initially described as a rocket attack and then VBIED followed by rocket attack.
Reporting is still unclear, however most reports now appear to agree that this was purely a VBIED incident and it
is likely that most injuries were caused by shards of glass following the explosion. Following a spate of five
VBIED attacks in Kabul in August, September has been notably quieter, particularly in the city center, with only
one VBIED incident reported in the province so far (an attack on a GIRoA linked vehicle in Qarabagh District).
However, minor incidents are still occurring regularly in Kabul, with 22 incidents reported in Kabul so far this
month, most of these being related to IED or magnetic IED attacks. (Breaking news at time of reporting –
Magnetic IED attack occurred late this morning in PD1, Kabul. 2 x HCN WIA).’ COMMENT ENDS.
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
injures over 40
Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Extant Threat Warnings (Central Region Threat)
15Sep – AGE plan to conduct VBIED attacks using 2 x Toyota Corollas, targeting MOI HQ
15Sep – AGE plan to conduct IDF attacks targeting Pul-e Charkhi Prison, HKIA and government
facilities
15Sep – IS has prepared a Toyota Landcruiser AV with foreign AGE with western appearance, wearing
US military uniforms, in order to carry out an attack against the Turkish Embassy
09Sep – AGE plan to conduct attacks in Kabul during Eid
09Sep – Threat of VBIED or BBIED attack against HKIA, possibly using a black Toyota Corolla, VRN#
18722
08Sep – AGE has placed explosives inside 16ltr gas balloons and placed them along the Kabul to Logar
roadway with the intent to destroy “big military armored vehicles”
07Sep – AGE using ANA uniforms plan to conduct suicide attacks against the Marshal Fahim Military
Academy
06Sep – AGE plan to conduct suicide attacks on the Kabul Delhi Hospital
05Sep – AGE seized a number of ANP Rangers, Humvees and International vehicles. They plan to
conduct attacks against ANSF HQs and CPs by using ANSF uniforms and vehicles
05Sep – Threats of attack against ANP academy, Camp Integrity, US Embassy (IDF), Presidential
Palace (IDF) and MOD HQ
02Sep – AGE plan to conduct BBIED/VBIED attacks targeting CF in PD#2
31Aug – AGE plan to use a green Toyota Corolla and a white Toyota Saracha to mount VBIED/BBIED
attacks against the Green Village
30 Aug – AGE plan to kidnap IC personnel in PD4/PD10 area
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
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Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Acronyms
AFG - Afghanistan
ABD - Abduction
AGE - Anti Government Elements / Insurgents / Taliban
ABP - Afghan Border Police / Patrol
ALP - Afghan Local Police
ANP - Afghan National Police
ANA - Afghan National Army
ANCOP - Afghan National Civil Order Police
ANSF - Afghan National Security Forces
AOG - Armed Opposition Group
APAT - Afghan Police Advisory Team
AQ (AP) - Al Qaeda (Arabian Peninsula)
APC - Armoured Personnel Carrier
APM - Anti-Personnel Mine
APPF - Afghan Public Protection Force
ATM - Anti Tank Mine
AV - Armoured Vehicle
BBIED - Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device
BG - Body Guard
BOLO - Be On the Look Out (for a vehicle / person)
CNP - Counter Narcotics Police
CoP - Chief of Police
CoS - Chief of Staff
CP / (I)VCP - Check Point / (Illegal) Vehicle Check Point
CPF - Civil Protection Force
CPX - Complex attack (using 2 or more weapon
systems)
CSTO - Collective Treaty Security Organization
CTD - Counter Terrorism Department
CWIED - Command Wire Improvised Explosive Device
DAC - District Administrative Centre
DBS - Drive By Shooting
DHQ - District Head Quarters
DIAG - Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups
ECP - Entry Control Point
EoF - Escalation of Force
FATA - Federally Administered Tribal Areas
GAO - Government Accountability Office
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GIRoA - Government of the Islamic Republic of
Afghanistan
HCN - Host Country National
HG - Hand Grenade (Fragmentation)
H-i-G - Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin
HME - Home-Made Explosive
HMG - Heavy Machine Gun
HPC - High Peace Council
HVT - High Value Target
HWP - High Way Patrol
IC - International Community
IAG - Illegal Armed Group
ICG - International Crisis Group
IDF - In-Direct Fire (rocket / mortar / artillery)
IEC - Independent Election Commission
IED - Improvised Explosive Device
IM - International Military
IMU - Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
InfoOps - Propaganda / PsyOps
INGO / NGO - International / Non-Govt Organisation
ISAF - International Security Assistance Force
ISI - Pakistan Intelligence Service
JAF-Jalalabad Air Field
KAF - Kandahar Air Field
KAIA - Kabul International Air Field
KIA - Killed in Action
MIED - Magnetically attached IED
MIA - Missing In Action
MNF - Multi National Force
MO - Modus Operandi
MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MoU - Memo of Understanding
MSR - Main Supply Route
NDN - Northern Distribution network
NDS - National Directorate of Security
NFDK - No Further Details Known
NWFP - North West Frontier Province
O&G - Oil and Gas
OOB - Out Of Bounds
OSM - Open Source Media
PAK - Pakistan
PAX - People / Persons
PGM - Pro-Government Militia
PH - Public Holiday
POO / I - Point Of Origin / Impact (of IDF attack)
PRT - Provincial Reconstruction Team
PSD - Personal Security Detail
RCIED - Radio Controlled IED
RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade
RTA - Road Traffic Accident
S (VBIED etc) - Suicide
SF - Special Forces
SAF - Small Arms Fire
SAFire - Surface to Air fire
SIGAR - Special Inspector General Afghan Reconstruction
SoFA - Status of Forces Agreement
SOP - Standard Operating Procedures
SF - Special Forces / Security Forces
TB - Taliban
TCN - Third Country Nationals
TTP - Tactics, Trends and Practices
TTP - Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban)
UAV - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (Surveillance / Attack
Drone)
UFN - Until Further Notice
UNDP - United Nations Development Programme
UVBT - Under Vehicle Booby Trap
UVIED - Under Vehicle IED (aka 'Sticky Bomb')
UXO - Unexploded Ordinance
VBIED - Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device
VCIED - Vehicle Concealed Improvised Explosive Device
VOIED - Victim Operated Improvised Explosive Device
VSI - Very Seriously Injured
WIA - Wounded In Action
WSJ - Wall St Journal
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VBIED attack in Paghman District, Kabul Province, kills at least 3 and
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Daily Afghanistan
September 17, 2015
Contact Information
For more information on how our services can support your
business in Afghanistan contact:
[email protected]
Brian Bonfiglio
Regional Director Afghanistan
GardaWorld Information Services
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