Spotting future stars - CIES Football Observatory

Transcription

CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report
Issue no. 14 - April 2016
Spotting future stars
Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson
1.Introduction
Playing numerous games during the first
years of a professional career is an essential
condition in order to be able to compete in
the top level leagues worldwide. As a continuation of the analysis published in February
2015, this Monthly Report presents the experience capital approach developed by the
CIES Football Observatory to identify players most likely to succeed in their career.
The paper first highlights the crucial role
played by competitions outside of the big-5
leagues in the sporting development of footballers present in the latter championships.
Indeed, only a small minority of footballers
playing in the five major European competitions have never taken part in other leagues
from the beginning of their adult career up
until their 23rd birthday.
We go then on to explain the capital experience method and we highlight the average
values measured for players of the big-5
leagues. Within this framework, we list the
young footballers who are currently part of
these championships with the highest values for experience. Finally, we review the
most experienced U23 footballers among
those currently playing in 26 other top division leagues of UEFA member associations.
1
Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars
2.The importance of playing
Current big-5 league footballers played on
average 93.9 domestic league matches since
the start of their professional career up until
the semester preceding their 23rd birthday.
The average number of matches played is
11.1 before 19 years of age, 26.8 before 20,
46.9 before 21, 69.7 before 22 and 93.9 before 23. B-team games are also included.
Generally speaking, forwards start their
professional career earlier than footballers
in other positions. They are thus likely to
play a greater number of matches for each
age threshold up until 23. At the other extreme, goalkeepers are fielded less during
the first years of their career. Indeed, for
this position, experience is more important
than physical fitness. This also holds true, to
a lesser extent, for defenders.
Figure 1: Average number of domestic league matches played at adult level by big-5 league players,
per age and position
Midfielders
Total
Until 19 years
11.1
Until 19 years
12.5
Until 20 years
26.8
Until 20 years
29.8
Until 21 years
46.9
Until 21 years
52.0
Until 22 years
69.7
Until 22 years
76.2
Until 23 years
93.9
Until 23 years
101.8
Forwards
Goalkeepers
5.9
Until 19 years
14.8
Until 20 years
15.4
Until 20 years
32.8
Until 21 years
28.9
Until 21 years
54.9
Until 22 years
45.6
Until 22 years
80.4
Until 23 years
64.6
Until 23 years
106.3
Until 19 years
Defenders
Until 19 years
9.0
Until 20 years
23.7
Until 21 years
43.1
Until 22 years
65.2
Until 23 years
89.1
2
Among players aged 23 or over currently
under contract with big-5 league clubs, only
5.4% have always played in teams taking part
in these championships between the start
of the professional career and the semester
preceding their 23rd birthday. This percentage remains limited also by considering that
footballers who played for B-teams of big-5
league clubs spent their entire career in the
five major European championships: 16.6%.
The percentage of footballers having always
played in the top leagues is particularly low
among goalkeepers (3.3%). For other positions, this figure is between 5 and 6%. Even
by including footballers who always played
for big-5 league clubs but participated in
B-team matches, the proportion of those
who spent their entire career in the most
competitive championships is low: between
11.6% for forwards and 18.7% for midfielders.
This analysis illustrates the crucial role of
leagues outside the big-5 in the development of players’ careers. This holds true also
for the most talented footballers. This finding suggests that the optimisation of the environment within which to promote talents
goes hand in hand with partnerships and
strategic alliances between teams of different levels.
Instead of recruiting a plethora of young talents who will never get their chance at the
highest level, and in the interests of both
the game and the players themselves, the
wealthiest teams would do better to cooperate in a healthy and united manner with
those of lesser means. This would permit
the more regular fielding of talents since the
very beginning of their adult career, which
would give them the opportunity to fully develop their skills.
Figure 2: % of big-5 league footballers who
always played in the big-5 leagues until the age
of 23, per position
Type I
Type II
Goalkeepers
3.3%
13.2%
Defenders
5.2%
18.4%
Midfielders
6.2%
18.7%
Forwards
5.3%
11.6%
Total
5.4%
16.6%
Type I : Footballers who only played in the big-5 leagues
Type II :Footballers who only played in big-5 league clubs (including
B-teams)
3
3. The experience capital method
The notion of experience capital refers to
matches played in adult championships up
until 23 years of age. This age is also taken
into account by FIFA for the payment of
training compensation when a first professional contract is signed.
To calculate experience capital, we attribute
different values to matches according to an
exclusive classification method that takes
into account the performance of national association representatives in European club
competitions, the division of the employer club in the domestic league and results
achieved.
For extra-European countries, the value
of matches was established according to
correspondences made with European associations. For example, all other things
being equal, a Brazilian top division match
is equivalent to one in the top Portuguese
league. This method allows us to compare
the level of the experience gained by players
on an international basis.
The analysis of the average experience capital of big-5 league players is also useful in
establishing thresholds above which players
from outside these championships have a
concrete possibility of successfully joining
the five major European competitions in the
near future. This analysis indicates that in
order to be able to cope with big-5 league
demands, midfielders and forwards need to
accumulate more experience capital from
the outset of their career than defenders and
goalkeepers.
Figure 3: Average experience capital of big-5 league players, per age and position
Midfielders
Total
Until 19 years
3.9
Until 19 years
4.7
Until 20 years
10.6
Until 20 years
12.5
Until 21 years
20.9
Until 21 years
24.4
Until 22 years
34.1
Until 22 years
39.3
Until 23 years
49.9
Until 23 years
56.9
Forwards
Goalkeepers
Until 19 years
1.1
Until 19 years
6.0
Until 20 years
3.7
Until 20 years
14.1
Until 21 years
9.1
Until 21 years
25.6
Until 22 years
17.0
Until 22 years
40.6
Until 23 years
28.0
Until 23 years
57.8
Defenders
Until 19 years
2.8
Until 20 years
8.9
Until 21 years
18.5
Until 22 years
31.0
Until 23 years
46.0
4
Hereafter, we present the five big-5 league
players with the highest values for experience capital per position and year of birth.
Among them are several players that are
likely to leave their mark on the history of
football. Despite their tender years, quite a
number of them are already full internationals.
In the rankings for goalkeepers are notably
two who were born in 1999: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse). Our analysis also allows us to highlight goalkeepers whose experience capital
is well above the average measured for all
big-5 league goalkeepers at the same age:
Mouez Hassan (Nice), Paul Nardi (Monaco),
Pau López (Espanyol), Jan Oblak (Atlético
Madrid), Timo Horn (Cologne), Alphonse
Aréola (Villarreal, on loan from Paris
St-Germain), Loris Karius (Mainz) and Jack
Butland (Stoke).
Figure 4: Most experienced young goalkeepers, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
Born in 1996 or after
1. Gianluigi Donnarumma
Milan AC (ITA)
10.8
1. Paul Nardi
AS Monaco (FRA)
29.2
2. Josip Posavec
Palermo US (ITA)
6.2
2. Pau López
RCD Espanyol (ESP)
25.9
3. Paul Bernardoni
3.9
FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA)
3. Odisseas Vlachodimos
VfB Stuttgart (GER)
15.4
4. Alban Lafont
Toulouse FC (FRA)
3.3
4. Yoan Cardinale
OGC Nice (FRA)
5.7
5. Paul André Guerin
GFCO Ajaccio (FRA)
1.4
Born in 1993
Born in 1995
1. Mouez Hassen
OGC Nice (FRA)
34.9
1. Jan Oblak
Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)
96.5
2. Rubén Blanco
RC Celta de Vigo (ESP)
8.5
2. Timo Horn
1. FC Köln (GER)
85.8
3. Pierluigi Gollini
Hellas Verona FC (ITA)
5.1
3. Alphonse Aréola
Villarreal CF (ESP)
68.5
4. Mike Maignan
LOSC Lille (FRA)
3.0
4. Loris Karius
1. FSV Mainz 05 (GER)
68.1
5. Luca Lezzerini
AC Fiorentina (ITA)
1.2
5. Jack Butland
Stoke City FC (ENG)
67.5
5
Precocious players are also numerous
among centre backs. Three of the five most
experienced central defenders according
to year of birth are playing in Spain: Jorge
Meré (Gijón), Aymeric Laporte (Bilbao) and
Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid). The two other footballers heading the rankings are also
on their way to pursuing a top flight career:
Jonathan Tah (Bayer Leverkusen) and Alessio Romagnoli (Milan).
Among the most experienced young centre
backs, similar to Raphaël Varane and Jonathan Tah, are several other players who have
already played in national A-teams: Andreas Christensen (Danemark), José Giménez
(Uruguay), Tin Jedvaj (Croatia), Patrick McNair (Northern Ireland), Marquinhos Aoás
(Brazil), Kurt Zouma (France), John Stones
(England), Karim Rekik (Netherlands), Matija Nastasić (Serbia), John Brooks (United
States) and Antonio Rüdiger (Germany).
Figure 5: Most experienced young centre backs, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
1. Jorge Meré
Real Sporting de Gijón (ESP)
19.4
1. Aymeric Laporte
Athletic Club Bilbao (ESP)
112.5
2. Joe Gomez
Liverpool FC (ENG)
15.2
2. Marquinhos Aoás
Paris St-Germain FC (FRA)
103.5
3. Olivier Boscagli
OGC Nice (FRA)
8.7
3. Kurt Zouma
Chelsea FC (ENG)
96.0
4. Issa Diop
Toulouse FC (FRA)
3.3
4. John Stones
Everton FC (ENG)
75.8
5. Diego Alende
2.9
5. Karim Rekik
Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
58.6
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Jonathan Tah
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER)
35.6
1. Raphaël Varane
Real Madrid CF (ESP)
134.6
2. Timo Baumgartl
VfB Stuttgart (GER)
26.4
2. Samuel Umtiti
Olympique Lyonnais (FRA)
107.3
3. Nico Elvedi
19.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER)
3. Matija Nastasić
FC Schalke 04 (GER)
88.7
4. Andreas Christensen
15.7
4. John Brooks
Hertha BSC Berlin (GER)
68.7
5. Benjamin Pavard
LOSC Lille (FRA)
5. Antonio Rüdiger
AS Roma (ITA)
65.5
11.4
Born in 1995
1. Alessio Romagnoli
Milan AC (ITA)
61.7
2. José Giménez
57.9
3. Niklas Süle
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (GER)
46.6
4. Tin Jedvaj
33.9
5. Patrick McNair
Manchester United FC (ENG)
26.2
6
The five full backs at the top of the experience rankings play in clubs that are generally in the first half of the table in their respective league: Villareal (Adrián Marín),
Everton (Brendan Galloway), Manchester
United (Luke Shaw), Borussia Dortmund
(Matthias Ginter) and Rome (Lucas Digne).
However, with the exception of Adrián
Marín, none of these players were trained in
the youth academy of their employer club.
The greatest merit in the blossoming of these
talents goes to Milton Keynes for Galloway,
Southampton for Shaw, Freiburg for Ginter
and Lille for Digne. Despite their young age,
most of the players at the top of the experience rankings have been already the object
of at least one transfer. This observation
highlights the process of intensification of
the mobility of the most promising players
from a very early age (see Monthly Report
n° 13).
Figure 6: Most experienced young full backs, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
1. Adrián Marín
Villarreal CF (ESP)
15.3
1. Matthias Ginter
89.4
BV 09 Borussia Dortmund (GER)
2. Pedro Pereira
Sampdoria UC (ITA)
5.9
2. Benjamin Mendy
87.5
3. Cameron Borthwick-Jackson
3.3
3. Elseid Hysaj
SSC Napoli (ITA)
84.0
4. Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel
AS St-Etienne (FRA)
1.6
4. Jonny Castro
69.5
5. Giuseppe Pezzella
Palermo US (ITA)
0.6
5. Abdul Rahman Baba
Chelsea FC (ENG)
53.4
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Lucas Digne
AS Roma (ITA)
103.4
2. Milan Gajić
15.0
FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA)
2. Juan Bernat
FC Bayern München (GER)
101.7
3. Almamy Touré
AS Monaco (FRA)
14.3
3. Fabinho Tavares
AS Monaco (FRA)
97.7
4. Yanni Regäsel
Eintracht Frankfurt (GER)
12.3
4. Ben Davies
Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
90.9
5. Ulisses Garcia
SV Werder Bremen (GER)
5.8
5. Raphaël Guerreiro
FC Lorient (FRA)
77.2
1. Brendan Galloway
Everton FC (ENG)
18.9
Born in 1995
1. Luke Shaw
83.2
2. José Luis Gayá
Valencia CF (ESP)
72.3
3. Calum Chambers
Arsenal FC (ENG)
65.3
4. Héctor Bellerín
Arsenal FC (ENG)
53.9
5. Rubén Duarte
RCD Espanyol (ESP)
32.9
7
The list of big-5 league central midfielders
with the most experience according to year
of birth is impressive: Amadou Diawara,
Danilo Barbosa, Adrien Rabiot, Mateo
Kovačić and Paul Pogba. As their collegues
ahead of them, players ranked in second
position will also probably be future World
Cup participants: Assane Dioussé (Senegal), Mahmoud Dahoud, Leon Goretzka and
Emre Can (Germany), as well as Geoffrey
Kondogbia (France).
None of the five central midfielders in the
five top positions of the experience rankings
playing in Serie A clubs is Italian: Amadou
Diawara (Guinea), Assane Dioussé (Senegal), Godfred Donsah (Ghana), Paul Pogba
(France) and Geoffrey Kondogbia (France).
This observation confirms the reticence of
clubs from the Peninsula to give young nationals their chance (see Monthly Report n°
13).
Figure 7: Most experienced young central midfielders, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
1. Amadou Diawara
Bologna FC (ITA)
13.1
1. Mateo Kovačić
112.8
2. Assane Dioussé
Empoli FC (ITA)
11.2
2. Emre Can
Liverpool FC (ENG)
96.1
3. Lucas Tousart
Olympique Lyonnais (FRA)
6.3
3. James Ward-Prowse
Southampton FC (ENG)
90.5
4. Pape Diop
6.0
4. Maximilian Arnold
VfL Wolfsburg (GER)
90.2
5. Fran Villalba
Valencia CF (ESP)
4.4
5. Saúl Ñíguez
90.1
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Paul Pogba
Juventus FC (ITA)
152.7
2. Mahmoud Dahoud
20.5
2. Geoffrey Kondogbia
Internazionale Milano FC (ITA)
114.2
3. Godfred Donsah
Bologna FC (ITA)
18.6
3. Johannes Geis
FC Schalke 04 (GER)
85.7
4. Albert Rafetraniaina
OGC Nice (FRA)
18.5
4. André Gomes
Valencia CF (ESP)
85.0
5. Max Christiansen
FC Ingolstadt 04 (GER)
12.8
5. Jordan Veretout
Aston Villa FC (ENG)
77.3
1. Danilo Barbosa
Valencia CF (ESP)
32.9
Born in 1995
1. Adrien Rabiot
91.2
2. Leon Goretzka
FC Schalke 04 (GER)
67.6
3. Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg
FC Schalke 04 (GER)
59.2
4. Mario Pasalić
AS Monaco (FRA)
46.6
5. Julian Weigl
39.9
BV 09 Borussia Dortmund (GER)
8
Players with five different nationalities
head the rankings for attacking midfielders:
France (Allan Saint-Maximin), Germany
(Julian Brandt), Belgium (Adnan Januzaj),
Spain (Gerard Deulofeu) and England (Alex
Oxlade-Chamberlain). The young Tottenham and England prodigy Dele Alli is second
among players born in 1996, just ahead of another extraordinary talent: the Croatian Alen
Halilović (Gijón, on loan from Barcelona).
Like Halilović, other young players among
the most experienced for their age group
were loaned during the 2015/16 season or
have already been loaned out in the past:
Allan Saint-Maximin, Jérémie Boga, Jordon
Ibe, Adnan Januzaj, Gerard Deulofeu, Moi
Gómez, Rafinha Alcântara, Ross Barkley, as
well as Florian Thauvin. For owner clubs,
the recourse to loaning for young talents is a
way to test their skills in teams with a lower
level, with the hope that they will be able to
acquire the experience necessary to have a
successful career.
Figure 8: Most experienced young attacking midfielders, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
1. Allan Saint-Maximin
Hannover 96 (GER)
17.3
1. Gerard Deulofeu
Everton FC (ENG)
109.6
2. Andrija Balić
Udinese Calcio (ITA)
11.8
2. Lucas Ocampos
107.9
3. Jérémie Boga
Stade Rennais FC (FRA)
9.0
3. Nathan Redmond
Norwich City FC (ENG)
96.3
4. Ousmane Dembélé
Stade Rennais FC (FRA)
6.5
4. Moi Gómez
Getafe CF (ESP)
89.5
5. Mikel Oiarzabal
Real Sociedad de Fútbol (ESP)
6.2
5. Hakan Çalhanoğlu
88.3
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Julian Brandt
55.5
1. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Arsenal FC (ENG)
139.8
2. Dele Alli
43.8
2. Julian Draxler
VfL Wolfsburg (GER)
138.2
3. Alen Halilović
Real Sporting de Gijón (ESP)
40.9
3. Rafinha Alcântara
FC Barcelona (ESP)
115.4
4. Dani Ceballos
Real Betis Balompié (ESP)
39.6
4. Ross Barkley
Everton FC (ENG)
112.5
5. Matías Nahuel
Villarreal CF (ESP)
39.1
5. Florian Thauvin
101.7
Born in 1995
1. Adnan Januzaj
63.6
2. Jordon Ibe
Liverpool FC (ENG)
49.5
3. Samu Castillejo
Villarreal CF (ESP)
48.4
4. Georges-Kevin N'Koudou
32.3
5. Thomas Lemar
AS Monaco (FRA)
30.1
9
Trained by FC Basle, the Swiss, with
Kosovan origins, Albian Ajeti is the most
experienced among the U19 forwards. He
is ranked ahead of another player whose future looks bright: Borja Mayoral (Real Madrid). His enrollment in the Madrid club,
where young players generally see little use,
may oblige him seek his fortune elsewhere
to pursue his career successfully. The case
of Álvaro Morata, trained by Real and transferred to Juventus with a buyback clause, is
in this sense exemplary.
At the top of the list for other age groups is
the German Timo Werner, as well as three
full internationals: Divock Origi, Raheem
Sterling and Romelu Lukaku. Other footballers having already played for national
A-teams feature in the rankings: Rey Manaj,
Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sané, Anthony Martial, Ángel Correa, Memphis Depay, Paco Alcácer, Harry Kane and Mauro Icardi.
Figure 9: Most experienced young forwards, big-5 leagues
Born in 1994
1. Albian Ajeti
FC Augsburg (GER)
11.2
1. Raheem Sterling
Manchester City FC (ENG)
142.2
2. Borja Mayoral
8.5
2. M'Baye Niang
Milan AC (ITA)
88.8
3. Paulin Puel
OGC Nice (FRA)
8.4
3. Memphis Depay
82.9
4. Rey Manaj
8.3
4. Domenico Berardi
US Sassuolo (ITA)
77.3
5. Jean-Kévin Augustin
8.2
5. Armindo Bruma
Real Sociedad de Fútbol (ESP)
55.0
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Timo Werner
VfB Stuttgart (GER)
51.0
1. Romelu Lukaku
Everton FC (ENG)
168.7
2. Kingsley Coman
FC Bayern München (GER)
40.9
2. Connor Wickham
Crystal Palace FC (ENG)
112.6
3. Neal Maupay
AS St-Etienne (FRA)
40.2
3. Paco Alcácer
Valencia CF (ESP)
106.1
4. Isaac Success
Granada CF (ESP)
29.2
4. Harry Kane
101.7
5. Leroy Sané
FC Schalke 04 (GER)
29.1
5. Mauro Icardi
96.2
Born in 1995
1. Divock Origi
Liverpool FC (ENG)
75.4
2. Anthony Martial
69.6
3. Santi Mina
Valencia CF (ESP)
59.6
4. Sandro Ramírez
FC Barcelona (ESP)
54.7
5. Ángel Correa
46.5
10
4. Non big-5 league talents
This section presents the U23 footballers
playing outside the five major European
championships with the highest values in
terms of experience capital per position.
Among the youngest age groups, we find
numerous footballers whose experience accumulated during career is greater than that
of most of their contemporaries playing in
big-5 league clubs. This situation reflects
the difficulty of getting regular games in the
most competitive championships at the start
of the career.
11
No big-5 goalkeeper of the same age has as
much experience capital as Bartomiej Dragowski and Yvon Mvogo. Dragowski made
his debut in the Polish top division in 2014,
when he was only 16 years of age. He immediately became the first choice goalkeeper for
Jagiellonia Bialystok, the club which trained
him and where he has already played over 50
domestic league matches. He has represented the U21 Polish team.
Born in 1994, Mvogo has already played almost 100 official matches with Young Boys,
one of the best Swiss clubs. He has also been
selected for the Swiss national team despite
fierce competition. He is soon likely to be
recruited by a big-5 league team. He should
however make sure he does not jump the
gun. He should take his time to choose a
club that will sign him as a first choice. If
this is not the case, given the longevity of
goalkeepers’ careers, it would be wiser for
him to wait a little longer.
Figure 10: Most experienced young goalkeepers, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Bartlomiej Dragowski
Jagiellonia Bialystok SSA (POL)
14.7
1. Yvon Mvogo
BSC Young Boys (SUI)
49.1
2. Djordje Nikolić
FK Jagodina (SRB)
2.9
2. Markus Kuster
SV Mattersburg (AUT)
19.0
3. Adam Jakubech
FC Spartak Trnava (SVK)
2.2
3. Merveille Goblet
KV RS Waasland Beveren (BEL)
15.7
4. Aleksandar Vitanov
PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv (BUL)
1.0
4. Mickey van der Hart
FC Zwolle (NED)
14.9
5. Oscar Linnér
AIK Solna (SWE)
0.8
5. Rui Silva
CD Nacional (POR)
14.1
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Marko Marić
KS Lechia Gdańsk (POL)
10.4
1. Mykyta Shevchenko
FC Zorya Luhansk (UKR)
30.5
2. Osman Hadzikić
FK Austria Wien (AUT)
10.3
2. José Sá
FC Porto (POR)
27.8
3. Grega Sorcan
ND Gorica (SVN)
7.1
3. Oliver Zelenika
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (CRO)
24.2
4. Per Kristian Bratveit
FK Haugesund (NOR)
5.2
4. Lukas Raeder
Vitória FC Setúbal (POR)
23.5
5. Joël Drommel
FC Twente (NED)
4.6
5. Zauri Makharadze
FC Olimpik Donetsk (UKR)
22.8
Born in 1995
1. Georgi Kitanov
PFC Cherno More Varna (BUL)
20.8
2. Predrag Rajković
Maccabi Tel Aviv FC (ISR)
19.8
3. Dominik Livaković
NK Zagreb (CRO)
19.0
4. Valentin Cojocaru
FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROM)
10.4
5. Roman Pidkivka
FC Karpaty Lviv (UKR)
9.8
12
In Europe, no centre back born in 1996 has
as much experience capital as Jairo Riedewald. Three days before his 19th birthday,
the Ajax player made his debut in the Dutch
national A-team. He was 17 years and three
months old when he first played in the Eredivisie with Ajax. He came onto the pitch in
the 80th minute when his team was being
beaten 0-1 at Kerkhade against Roda. Finally, Ajax won 2-1 thanks to two goals scored
by Riedewald. It is hard to imagine a better
debut.
Leading the rankings of players born in 1995
is Jason Denayer. Trained according to the
methods of one of the best experts in the
business, the Frenchman Jean-Marc Guillou, Denayer was quickly recruited by Manchester City. The English club first loaned
him to Celtic Glasgow and then again to Galatasaray. Time will tell if the Belgian international will be able to successfully establish
himself in his home club.
Figure 11: Most experienced young centre backs, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Ertuğrul Ersoy
Çaykur Rizespor Kulübü (TUR)
8.0
1. Sven van Beek
Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)
40.1
2. Ventsislav Kerchev
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)
4.3
2. Tobias Figueiredo
38.7
Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)
3. Filip Benković
GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)
4.2
3. Patrick Banggaard
FC Midtjylland (DEN)
36.9
4. Filip Dagerstal
IFK Norrköping (SWE)
3.2
4. Ahmet Çalık
Gençlerbirliği SK (TUR)
36.8
5. Noah Loosli
Grasshopper Club Zürich (SUI)
1.9
5. Pascal Gregor
FC Nordsjælland (DEN)
32.4
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Jairo Riedewald
AFC Ajax (NED)
36.7
1. Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos
Asteras Tripolis FC (GRE)
43.4
2. Duje Caleta-Car
FC RB Salzburg (AUT)
18.4
2. Frederico Venâncio
Vitória FC Setúbal (POR)
43.0
3. John Souttar
Heart of Midlothian FC (SCO)
17.7
3. Kenneth Omeruo
Kasımpaşa SK (TUR)
41.8
4. Ionuț Nedelcearu
FC Dinamo Bucureşti (ROM)
15.9
4. Andrei Marc
40.2
5. Jordan McGhee
Heart of Midlothian FC (SCO)
15.4
5. Emil Bergström
Djurgårdens IF (SWE)
39.7
Born in 1995
1. Jason Denayer
Galatasaray SK (TUR)
20.5
2. Jean-Charles Castelletto
Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz (BEL)
19.8
3. Peet Bijen
FC Twente (NED)
16.5
4. Robert Hodorogea
FC Viitorul Constanța (ROM)
15.7
5. Vyacheslav Lukhtanov
FC Hoverla Uzhhorod (UKR)
15.1
13
The experience capital of two full backs is
greater than that of all their big-5 league
contemporaries playing in the same position: Kevin Diks and Linus Wahlqvist. They
both were born in the last three months of
the year: October for Diks and November
for Wahlqvist. This only makes their statistics more impressive (see Monthly Report n°
10).
It would not be surprising to see Kevin Diks
join Chelsea, a club with which his home
team, Vitesse Arnhem, enjoys a privileged
relationship. As for Linus Wahlqvist, his
quality performances have already been rewarded with two caps for the Swedish national A-team. After Euro 2016, it is a likely
bet that he will be transferred to a club participating in a wealthier and more competitive league than the Swedish top division
championship.
Figure 12: Most experienced young full backs, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Cristian Manea
Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz (BEL)
13.6
1. Terence Kongolo
48.6
2. Hidde ter Avest
FC Twente (NED)
9.9
2. Frederik Holst
Brøndby IF (DEN)
41.1
3. Vasyl Kravets
FC Karpaty Lviv (UKR)
7.8
3. Steliano Filip
40.9
4. Kieran Tierney
Celtic FC (SCO)
5.0
4. Thomas Foket
KAA Gent (BEL)
40.5
5. Silvan Hefti
FC St. Gallen (SUI)
4.5
5. Ludwig Augustinsson
FC København (DEN)
40.0
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Kevin Diks
Vitesse Arnhem (NED)
24.5
1. Ricardo Esgaio
54.7
2. Linus Wahlqvist
IFK Norrköping (SWE)
19.2
2. Arthur Masuaku
Olympiacos FC (GRE)
47.6
3. Josip Filipović
NK Zavrč (SVN)
13.4
3. Bruno Gaspar
Vitória SC Guimarães (POR)
47.1
4. Oleksandr Kaplienko
FC Metalist Kharkiv (UKR)
11.8
4. Mitchell Dijks
AFC Ajax (NED)
46.0
5. Juraj Chvátal
1. FC Slovácko (CZE)
9.5
5. Jonas Svensson
Rosenborg BK (NOR)
44.4
Born in 1995
1. Eduard Sobol
FC Metalist Kharkiv (UKR)
36.5
2. Elmir Nabiullin
FC Rubin Kazan (RUS)
31.2
3. Kenny Tete
AFC Ajax (NED)
30.4
4. Guillermo Cotugno
FC Rubin Kazan (RUS)
23.1
5. Rick Karsdorp
22.9
14
Four players stand out among the central
midfielders born in 1997. Their experience
capital is greater than any big-5 league footballer of the same position born in the same
year: Rúben Neves (Porto), Youri Tielemans
(Anderlecht), Renato Sanches (Benfica) and
Dragoș Nedelcu (Viitorul Constanța). The
level of experience of Neves and Tielemans
is particularly impressive: it is even greater
than the highest values measured for big-5
league players born in 1996.
The experience capital of Riechedly Bazoer
is also superior to any big-5 league central
midfielder born in the same year. The Ajax
player made his debut in the Dutch national
A-team one month after having celebrated
his 19th birthday. Another precocious talent to follow closely is Tonny Vilhena. His
departure to a big-5 club appears very likely
during the 2016 summer transfer window.
His contract with Feyenoord runs out next
June and clubs interested in his services
could recruit him without having to pay a
transfer fee.
Figure 13: Most experienced young central midfielders, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Rúben Neves
FC Porto (POR)
43.1
1. Anderson Talisca
SL Benfica (POR)
63.9
2. Youri Tielemans
RSC Anderlecht (BEL)
38.9
2. Okay Yokuşlu
Trabzonspor Kulübü (TUR)
59.0
3. Renato Sanches
SL Benfica (POR)
23.0
3. José Rodríguez
Galatasaray SK (TUR)
55.5
4. Dragoș Nedelcu
15.1
4. Simon Tibbling
FC Groningen (NED)
40.7
5. Konrad Laimer
10.3
5. Leonardo Bertone
37.4
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Riechedly Bazoer
AFC Ajax (NED)
33.1
1. João Mário
84.7
2. Razvan Marin
21.5
2. Fred Rodrigues
FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR)
76.1
3. Viktor Kovalenko
FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR)
19.9
3. Raphael Holzhauser
FK Austria Wien (AUT)
63.8
4. Miroslav Káčer
MŠK Žilina (SVK)
18.6
4. Ergys Kaçe
PAOK FC (GRE)
58.7
5. Liam Henderson
Hibernian FC (SCO)
18.4
5. Dimitrios Kourbelis
Asteras Tripolis FC (GRE)
47.2
Born in 1995
1. Tonny Vilhena
67.6
2. Jorrit Hendrix
PSV Eindhoven (NED)
44.6
3. Ozan Tufan
Fenerbahçe SK (TUR)
35.5
4. Danny Bakker
ADO Den Haag (NED)
29.3
5. Naby Keïta
27.8
15
The only attacking midfielder whose experience capital is greater than any other big-5
league player of the same age and position
is Ante Ćorić. Aged 19, he has already played
more than 50 matches in the best performing Croatian club: Dinamo Zagreb. He also
has had a Champions League experience
and has already been selected to play for
the U21 Croatian side. His compatriot from
Hajduk Split, Nikola Vlašić, also has a bright
future to look forward to.
The rankings also include other talents who
will probably soon be recruited by teams
from the five major European leagues. The
most experienced attacking midfielder
among those born in 1994, Lazar Marković,
has already played in the English Premier
League. His home club, Liverpool, lent him
to Fenerbahçe for the 2015/16 season. Another footballer playing in Turkey, Kerim
Frei, has already had the chance to play in
the Premier League at the start of his career.
Figure 14: Most experienced young attacking midfielders, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Ante Ćorić
23.5
1. Lazar Marković
Fenerbahçe SK (TUR)
82.3
2. Nikola Vlašić
HNK Hajduk Split (CRO)
16.4
2. Carlos Mané
66.8
3. Daniel de Silva
Roda JC Kerkrade (NED)
13.2
3. Dennis Praet
RSC Anderlecht (BEL)
57.5
4. Nikolas Spalek
MŠK Žilina (SVK)
11.0
4. Diego Lopes
Kayserispor (TUR)
57.3
5. Bozhidar Kraev
PFC Levski Sofia (BUL)
9.8
5. Ivan Petryak
FC Zorya Luhansk (UKR)
40.7
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Adam Maher
PSV Eindhoven (NED)
90.5
2. Valeri Luchkevych
22.4
FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (UKR)
2. Nicolae Stanciu
FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROM)
76.3
3. Dabney dos Santos
AZ Alkmaar (NED)
21.1
3. Rafa Silva
SC Braga (POR)
74.8
4. Diogo Jota
FC Paços de Ferreira (POR)
19.0
4. Davy Klaassen
AFC Ajax (NED)
64.0
1. Gonçalo Guedes
SL Benfica (POR)
35.5
5. Matheus Pereira
16.7
. Kerim Frei
Beşiktaş JK (TUR)
64.0
Born in 1995
1. Marko Pjaca
40.4
2. Aleksey Miranchuk
FC Lokomotiv Moskva (RUS)
39.3
3. Otávio Monteiro
37.7
4. Daley Sinkgraven
AFC Ajax (NED)
36.3
5. Pione Sisto
FC Midtjylland (DEN)
36.2
16
One player stands out clearly from other
forwards: Breel Embolo. An undeniable FC
Basle first team mainstay, the Swiss with
Cameroon origins is also a key player in
the Swiss national A-team. His experience
capital is greater than all big-5 league forward born in 1997. He would also be ranked
fourth among the players born in 1996. He
has been on the radar of numerous top level European clubs and his transfer fee will
probably be in the tens of millions of euro.
Other players born in 1997 have accumulated more experience than any forward in the
five major European championships: Enes
Ünal (NAC Breda, on loan from Manchester
City), David Kownacki (Lech Poznań), Xande Silva (Vitória Guimarães) and Luka Jović (Benfica). The latter was recruited by the
Portuguese side in January 2016 from Red
Star of Belgrade. Andrei Ivan (Craiova) and
Sander Svendsen (Molde) are also destined
for top level careers.
Figure 15: Most experienced young forwards, 26 top division European leagues
Born in 1994
1. Breel Embolo
FC Basel 1893 (SUI)
38.2
1. Arkadiusz Milik
AFC Ajax (NED)
65.9
2. Enes Ünal
NAC Breda (NED)
26.3
2. Jean-Paul Boëtius
FC Basel 1893 (SUI)
59.2
3. Dawid Kownacki
KKS Lech Poznań (POL)
18.5
3. Lucas Andersen
Willem II Tilburg (NED)
56.6
4. Xande Silva
18.4
4. Viktor Fischer
AFC Ajax (NED)
54.3
5. Luka Jović
SL Benfica (POR)
16.8
5. Anthony Limbombe
NEC Nijmegen (NED)
50.4
Born in 1993
Born in 1996
1. Richairo Živković
AFC Ajax (NED)
36.7
1. Jürgen Locadia
PSV Eindhoven (NED)
63.2
2. Alexandru Tudorie
FC Voluntari (ROM)
25.9
2. Yuya Kubo
60.6
3. Andrija Živković
FK Partizan (SRB)
22.9
3. Jesús Corona
FC Porto (POR)
59.0
4. Gustav Engvall
IFK Göteborg (SWE)
21.9
4. Andreas Cornelius
FC København (DEN)
54.1
5. Siebe Schrijvers
KV RS Waasland Beveren (BEL)
21.2
5. Mikael Ishak
Randers FC (DEN)
53.2
Born in 1995
1. Dorin Rotariu
48.8
2. Sardar Azmoun
FC Rostov (RUS)
38.2
3. Ivo Rodrigues
FC Arouca (POR)
37.4
4. Anwar El Ghazi
AFC Ajax (NED)
34.8
5. Takumi Minamino
34.0
17
5.Stastistics at the service of recruitment
The experience capital method developed
by the CIES Football Observatory research
group provides the basis for the setting up
of an efficient talent spotting system. With
an economy of means, it firstly allows teams
covering a large number of countries. Professional clubs can thus hope to outflank the
competition even if they do not have a fully-fledged recruitment structure.
Moreover, the approach presented in this
study permits the pinpointing of countries
where footballers are generally given a sufficient playing time allowing them to fully
develop their potential (see also Monthly
Report n°13). The success of a career in as
competitive an environment as football depends indeed on the context in which the
player finds himself as much as his intrinsic
talent.
Finally, the method of experience capital
allows clubs to optimise their approach regarding transfers by considerably reducing
the risks inherent in such operations, from
both the sporting and economic point of
view. For recruiting clubs, there is indeed
no better guarantee than signing footballers
who have had the opportunity to play as often as possible at the highest possible level
taking into account their age and talent.
Our research team is at the service of clubs
interested in finding out more about the
practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.
18

Spotting future stars - CIES Football Observatory

Transcription

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