a window of opportunity

Transcription

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
INVENTORY OF SOCIETAL, SCIENTIFIC,
INNOVATION TRENDS TOWARDS 2025
TECHNOLOGICAL
Draft final report
By: IDEA Consult
Arnold Verbeek*, Els van de Velde en Tine Maenhout
For: Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (VRWI)
* Corresponding (lead) author
Email: [email protected]
Tel.: 02 282 17 19
Brussels, December 2012
IDEA Consult nv
Kunstlaan 1-2, bus 16
B –1210 Brussel
Tel: (+32) 02 282 17 10
Fax: (+32) 02 282 17 15
AND
Table of contents
1.
LIST OF MAIN ABBREVIATIONS
4
2.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
6
3.
SETUP AND VISION
7
VRWI Foresight trajectory ______________________________________________________________________ 7
Vision 7
Operationalization_____________________________________________________________________________ 8
Transition Areas ______________________________________________________________________________ 9
Guide to the reader ___________________________________________________________________________ 11
4.
OUTLOOK ON INTERNATIONAL FORWARD LOOKING ACTIVITIES
12
Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 12
European Commission ________________________________________________________________________ 12
Nations _____________________________________________________________________________________ 15
A comparative overview.............................................................................................................................. 15
In focus: United States................................................................................................................................ 22
In focus: China ............................................................................................................................................ 23
In focus: India .............................................................................................................................................. 24
5.
SOCIETY AND CHALLENGES
25
Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 25
Challenges faced ____________________________________________________________________________ 25
Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being ............................................................................. 27
Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies ............................................................................................... 28
Group 3: Natural resources ........................................................................................................................ 31
Group 4: Energy transition ......................................................................................................................... 33
Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time .............................................................................................. 34
Group 6: Global economy and global labour force ................................................................................... 36
Comparison with ViA and VSDO ________________________________________________________________ 38
6.
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION TRENDS
40
Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 40
Social Sciences and Humanities ________________________________________________________________ 42
Advanced Materials __________________________________________________________________________ 46
ICT
_____________________________________________________________________________________ 48
Nanotechnology _____________________________________________________________________________ 51
Biotechnology _______________________________________________________________________________ 53
Photonics___________________________________________________________________________________ 56
Advanced manufacturing technologies __________________________________________________________ 57
Health _____________________________________________________________________________________ 60
Water _____________________________________________________________________________________ 62
Food and agriculture _________________________________________________________________________ 63
2
Environment ________________________________________________________________________________ 65
Systems research ____________________________________________________________________________ 66
Energy 67
Cognitive neurosciences ______________________________________________________________________ 69
Knowledge Intensive Business Services _________________________________________________________ 71
Security ____________________________________________________________________________________ 73
Mobility and transport ________________________________________________________________________ 75
7.
IDENTIFIED TRANSITION AREAS
77
Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 77
Transition areas _____________________________________________________________________________ 78
T1: Society 2.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ 79
T2: Life enhancement: introduction _____________________________________________________________ 83
T2.1: Life enhancement: food and agriculture related ______________________________________________ 84
T2.2: Life enhancement: health related __________________________________________________________ 89
T3: Smart resources management ______________________________________________________________ 95
T4: Urban planning and mobility dynamics ______________________________________________________ 101
T5: New energy demand and delivery___________________________________________________________ 106
ANNEXES
113
1. References_______________________________________________________________________________ 114
2. Websites consulted _______________________________________________________________________ 120
3. Steering Committee VRWI foresight study 2025 ________________________________________________ 124
4. Agenda foresight camp ____________________________________________________________________ 123
3
1. LIST OF MAIN ABBREVIATIONS
BMBF
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
CAS
Chinese Academy of Sciences
CCS
Carbon Capture and Storage
CHP
Combined Heat and Power
CMOS
Complementary Metal–Oxide–Semiconductor
CSF
Common Strategic Framework
CSP
Concentrated Solar Power
DDoS
Distributed Denial-of-Service
DNA
Deoxyribo Nucleic Acid
EC
European Commission
EERA
European Energy Research Alliance
EMR
Electronic Medical Records
ERTMS
European Rail Traffic Management System
FAO
Food and Agricultural Organization
FCH
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen
GHG
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
GM
Genetic Modification
GMO
Genetically Modified Organism
GPS
Global Positioning System
HD
High-Definition
IoT
Internet of Things
IP
Internet Protocol
ITER
International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
ITS
Intelligent Transport Systems
KET
Key Enabling Technologies
KI business services
Knowledge Intensive Business Services
MRI
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
OECD
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEM
Original Equipment Manufacturers
PC
Polycarbonate
PV
Photovoltaic
RFID
Radio Frequency Identification
RNA
Ribo Nucleic Acid
SESAR
Single European Sky ATM Research
SET
Strategic Energy Technology
SET-Group
SET-Plan Steering Group
SET-Plan
European Strategic Energy Technology Plan
SETIS
SET-Plan Information System
SME
Small and Medium Enterprises
4
SSH
Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities
SSL
Solid-State Lighting
STI
Science, Technology and Innovation
UKCIP
United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme
UN
United Nations
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
ViA
Flanders in Action
VRWI
Flemish Council for Science and Innovation
VSDO
Flemish Strategy for Sustainable Development
5
2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The real value of a forward looking exercise (or foresight study) lies in the process itself, the
collective interaction between different stakeholders in their appreciation of future trends and
potential policy implications. This process, however, needs to be guided and supported by
opinions, information and facts and figures. The underlying report aims to provide selected
insights and to inform this process.
This report is largely based on the reflections and insights gathered by other colleagueresearchers from knowledge institutions, governments, industry, and social organisations,
reported through various means (reports, briefings etc.). We have done our utmost to
adequately acknowledge and cite these original contributions. In particular, we would like to
express our appreciation towards the foresight work that has been conducted by the
European Commission and primarily, the SSH Directorate. Furthermore, we build extensively
on the valuable work carried out by the United Nations, national and international government
agencies and sector federations, the European Technology Platforms, national research
organisations and several trend watchers.
We would also like to thank the various experts that have participated in the interviews and
the ‘foresight camp’. Next, we would like to thank the members of the executive committee of
the VRWI for their valuable comments and suggestions. Last but not least, we are very
grateful for the patience and active support provided by our project officer, Elie Ratinckx, of
the VRWI.
6
3. SETUP AND VISION
VRWI Foresight trajectory
For over a decade, research, technology and innovation policy choices in Flanders have been
influenced by forward looking activities, particularly by the foresight studies carried out by the
1 2 3 4
Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (VRWI) , , , . The last major study was carried
out in 2006 and has led to the identification of six strategic clusters which were further
5
elaborated in 2008.





Transport - Services - Logistics - supply chain management
IT and Healthcare services Healthcare - Food - prevention and treatment
New materials - Nanotechnology - processing industry
IT for Socio-economic Innovation
Energy and Environment for service and processing industry
In 2012-2013, a new foresight trajectory has been initiated by the VRWI which aims to identify
new (or confirm already known) scientific, technological and innovation developments and
solutions as a response to existing and emerging (grand) societal challenges faced in the run
up to 2025. This foresight trajectory consists of four phases:
1) Preparatory phase:
a. Identification and matching of societal challenges and science, technology
and innovation developments and trends in transition areas;
b. Quantitative analysis of Flanders’ strengths and weakness in specific
scientific, technological areas and economic sectors.
2) Prioritization and selection of relevant transition areas combining societal challenges
with solutions stemming from science, technology and innovation;
3) Prioritization and selection of science, technology and innovation solutions under
each of the identified priority transition areas;
4) Reporting and dissemination.
Underlying report contains the results of the part of the first phase (a), the preparatory
phase.
Vision
The objective of the first phase (a) is to:
Identify and map major societal challenges, science, technology and innovation
developments and trends, and establish an interlinkage between societal
challenges and potential solutions stemming from science, technology and
innovation.
1
Flemish Science Policy Council (2006), “Technology and Innovation in Flanders: Priorities”, Proces van
Prioriteitsstelling en Resultaten
2
Flemish Science Policy Council (2004), “De chemische industrie in Vlaanderen”, Wetenschaps- en technologisch
innovatiebeleid – Behoeften en knelpunten
3
Flemish Science Policy Council (2002), Tussen stuwen en sturen. Acta van het Colloquium.
4
Flemish Science Policy Council (2004), “De Voedingsindustrie in Vlaanderen”,
5
Flemish Science Policy Council (2008), “Six Clusters and their spearheads”
7
During this phase no choices are made. Instead a window of opportunity is created for
future policy making, which will allow for prioritization in the next phases of the foresight
trajectory. The study focuses on potential developments that may occur on the path towards
2025, a time frame that makes it feasible to identify future challenges and trends with an
acceptable level of certainty.
Several developments, however, may become relevant sooner or later, depending on
numerous external or internal factors and conditions. The time dimension of specific
developments will be pinpointed via the so-called Delphi survey, in which specific statements
will be presented to a large and diverse group of respondents. The survey will, among other
things, enquire about when a certain development is expected, what the impact might be,
and how various actors should or could respond to it. The Delphi survey will take place in the
next phase of the foresight trajectory and will be managed by the VRWI. Moreover, further
micro/technical operationalization of the societal challenges and potential solutions in
transition areas identified here will have to take place in the subsequent phases of the
foresight process by various experts. The underlying report aims to provide a basic
framework.
Substantial and varied background material and sources have been consulted. The work of
the European Commission, including various policy options and choices, has been taken on
board and been carefully considered. As in the previous foresight rounds, the European
dimension forms a very important building block, as the Flanders region is well-embedded in
the European socio-economic framework. At the same time, future-focused studies on major
economies like the US, China and India have also been considered wherever possible and
relevant.
Finally, the perspective taken during this preparatory phase can be described as “optimistic”
- meaning that we assume that no major (unforeseen) disruptive events will take place, and
that the current economic crisis can be contained (and reversed), leading to the necessary
financial and economic space to make new and/or adjust existing policy choices. Optimism,
reflected in the various consulted reports and experts, is also the general sphere and attitude
under which current report has been developed.
Operationalization
The first phase (a) of the foresight trajectory (underlying study) followed a number of steps, as
illustrated in the figure below.
Figure 1: Study approach
8
The research work started in July 2012 and was been completed in January 2013. During
the literature screening and analysis phase, numerous national and international reports
(studies, policy statements, opinions etc.) were screened and analysed (see Annexes 1 and 2
for an overview). Similarly, numerous websites have also been consulted. This step resulted
in an exhaustive overview of trends and developments.
Equipped with these first insights and results, the study team carried out 28 interviews (face
to face or telephone) with national and international experts (see Annex 3 for an overview of
the experts) about their vision of the future and the underlying anticipated trends and
developments. All experts selected for the interviews participated on their own personal
behalf. The objective of these interviews has been to explore and refine, but not to validate
or make choices.
th
On the 27 of November 2012, a foresight camp (workshop) took place involving 20 experts
(see Annex 4 for an overview of the experts). These experts, the majority of whom were also
interviewed, were asked to discuss and reflect on potential linkages between identified
societal challenges and potential solutions stemming from science, technology and innovation
(structured in so-called “transitions areas”) from their own personal perspective. The foresight
camp consisted of a number of reflection sessions (breakout groups and plenary
discussions). The agenda can be found in Annex 5. The outcome of the literature and field
phase is presented in the report below.
Versions of the underlying working document were also presented, discussed and validated in
the steering committee of the VRWI foresight project, consisting of Captains of Industry and
th
Captains of Society (see Annex 6 for a list of the members of the steering committee) on 20
th
of November 2012 and 12 of December 2012. Additionally, the study was also presented,
nd
discussed and validated by the VRWI on the 22 of November 2012 and 31th of January
2013.
At the very outset of the preparatory phase, the foresight process was also announced
externally: a new website has been developed (www.VRWIforFlanders2025.be) in order to
inform the broader stakeholders about the foresight study, the objectives and expected
results.
Transition Areas
Whereas in previous Flemish foresight exercises, the perspective was mainly scientific and/or
technological, in this new cycle a broader perspective has been taken by devoting more
attention to societal challenges and by introducing a link between societal problems and
potential solutions stemming from science, technology and/or innovation.
This vision rests on the premise that societal challenges can only be addressed by combining
solutions from different multidisciplinary science-technology and/or socio-economic fields,
including insights and solutions from the social sciences and humanities. There is an
increasing understanding that no single science or technology field is likely to lead to radical
breakthrough innovations in the near future: solutions are found in the combination of science
and technology fields and innovations, and also in the alignment of innovations from
technological and socio-economic spheres.
We will refer to these combinatory areas as Transition Areas, inspired by the work of
6,7
8
Warnke. Transition areas (or ‘transformational fields’) show the following characteristics:
6
Warnke P., (2012), “Towards Transformative Innovation Priorities”, European Foresight Platform”, EFP Brief No.
211
7
Warnke P., (2011), “Embedding transformative priorities into the STI landscape – Experience from the BMBF
foresight system”, Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, Sevilla
8
Ibid.
9

Shared: transformative priorities will not be defined in a top-down manner but through
bottom-up participatory processes.

Inclusive: new actor groups such as citizens, technology users and social
entrepreneurs will have a major role in defining and implementing transformative
priorities.

Hybrid: they transcend disciplinary boundaries, particularly those between social
sciences and humanities on the one hand and engineering and natural sciences on
the other and address socio-technical issues in a transdisciplinary manner. At the
same time they will extend the notion of RTI from research labs and engineering
offices into society to include social and organizational innovation.

Experimental/tentative: they will have clear goals. Nevertheless the solution
adopted to achieve these goals will rarely be fixed upfront but, rather, will evolve
through the implementation process.

(Extra)-systemic: they will adopt the systemic perspective required to modulate coevolutionary trajectories.

Glocal: they may be adopted across several regions, nations as well as on an
European or even global level.
9
Without going into detail here, Geels and Schot (2007) also provide a typology of four
different transition pathways differing in their combinations of the timing and nature of multilevel interactions. For example, (1) Transformation (e.g. the Dutch hygienic transition from
cesspools to sewer systems); (2) Reconfiguration (e.g. the American transition from traditional
factories to mass production); (3) Technological Substitution (e.g. the British transition from
sailing ships to steamships) and (4) De-alignment and Re-alignment (e.g. the American
transition from horse drawn carriages to automobiles).
By following the logic of transition areas, a different (more integrated/holistic) approach is
required with respect to innovation policy making. In the German BMBF foresight study on
which the framework of the present study is based, the notion of transition areas has been
used to identify new mobilizing cross-cutting areas (see Figure 2) by linking societal
challenges to insights/potential solutions stemming from the relevant science, technology and
innovation fields.
9
Geels, F. W., & Schot, J. (2007). Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research Policy, 36, 399-477.
10
Figure 2: Illustration interrelation between societal challenges and key starting fields (potential STI
solutions)
Source: IDEA Consult
Science and technology are today (still) largely organized from a ‘field’ or ‘disciplinary’
perspective. This perspective is more or less followed in the underlying study, in the sense
10
that for each so-called ‘starting field’ the main trends and developments towards 2025 have
been mapped. On the other hand, societal challenges and needs have also been mapped
extensively. Subsequently, on the basis of combinations (interrelations) of societal challenges
and potential scientific or technological solutions, 5 ‘transition areas’ have been identified and
described (with the support of thematic experts). These transition areas (see chapter 6) will
be further refined in the subsequent phases of the foresight process.
Guide to the reader
In chapter 3, a snapshot of the most important findings stemming from major international
forward looking studies all over the world (Europe, US, China, India, and several EU Member
States) is provided.
In chapter 4, a detailed overview of the most important societal challenges grouped into 6
major clusters is presented.
Chapter 5 contains an overview of science, technology and innovation trends and
developments.
In chapter 6, the transition areas – a combination of societal challenges and science,
technology and innovation solutions - are presented.
This report is also accompanied by a number of annexes.
10
These are key science, technology and innovation fields analysed in the 2006/7 VRWI foresight study and the more
recent foresight process carried out by the German BMBF (see also chapter 5 for a motivation of this
selection).
11
4. OUTLOOK ON INTERNATIONAL FORWARD
LOOKING ACTIVITIES
Introduction
The objective of this chapter is to present the highlights of a selection of forward looking
studies carried out in other regions and/or countries of the world, largely because they provide
a source of inspiration. In several instances, the outcomes of these studies have been
translated into key policy areas and priorities. We start with a perspesctive of the European
Commission, followed by a focused review of a number of national forward looking studies
and associated policy priorities. The presented overview does not intend to be exhaustive.
European Commission
11 12
European context ,
 Europe’s average economic growth rate has been structurally lower than that of its main
economic partners, largely due to a productivity gap that has widened over the last
decade. Much of this is due to differences in business structures combined with lower
levels of investment in R&D and innovation; insufficient use of information and
communications technologies; reluctance in some parts of society to embrace innovation;
barriers to market access and a less dynamic business environment.
 Europe's employment rates (at 69% on average for those aged 20-64) are still
significantly lower than in other parts of the world. Only 63% of women are at work
compared to 76% of men. Only 46% of older workers (55-64) are employed compared to
over 62% in the US and Japan. Moreover, on average Europeans work 10% hours less
than their US or Japanese counterparts.
 The ageing of the European population is accelerating. As the baby-boom generation
retires, the EU's active population will start to shrink from 2013/2014. The number of
people aged over 60 is now increasing twice as fast as it did before 2007 – by about two
million per year compared to one million previously. The combination of a smaller working
population and a higher share of retired people will place additional strains on our welfare
systems.
In combination with global challenges…
 Countries such as China 13 and India are investing heavily in research and technology in
order to move their industries up the value chain and "leapfrog" into the global economy.
As these countries develop, new markets will open up for many European companies.
Recent figures show that China and India are moving from competition based on imitation
and low cost, to competition based on new and innovative products. Their young
populations also seem to be well disposed to novelty, both as producers and consumers
14
of innovation.
11
European Commission, “EUROPE 2020 A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”, Brussels,
3.3.2010, COM (2010)
12
European Commission (2010), “Inventory of Forward Looking Studies with a focus beyond 2030”, Global Europe
2030-2050, European Commission Expert Group, European Research Area
13
Kygne, J. (2011), “China Shakes The World. The Rise of a Hungry Nation”
14
European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and
Humanities
12
 The availability of easy credit, short-termism and excessive risk-taking in financial markets
around the world fuelled speculative behaviour, giving rise to bubble-driven growth and
significant imbalances. Europe is seeking finding global solutions to bring about an
efficient and sustainable financial system.
 Climate and resource challenges require drastic action. Strong dependence on fossil fuels
such as oil and inefficient use of raw materials expose our consumers and businesses to
harmful and costly price shocks, threatening our economic security and contributing to
climate change. The expansion of the world population will intensify global competition for
natural resources, and put pressure on the environment.
The socio-economic performance of Europe combined with a number of major worldwide
developments, have urged Europe to act. As a follow-up on the strategy outlined in the Treaty
of Lisbon, the European Commission (EC) presented a future vision: ‘Europe 2020 - A
strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ which was subsequently adopted by the
European Council. The main vision underlying this strategy is to turn Europe’s socioeconomic development in a direction which delivers high levels of employment, productivity
and social cohesion.
In this vision, three mutually reinforcing priorities have been put forward:
1) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation;
2) Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more
competitive economy;
3) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and
territorial cohesion.
The EC has set out seven flagship initiatives to catalyse progress under each priority theme:
 "Innovation Union" - to improve framework conditions and access to finance for research
and innovation so as to ensure that innovative ideas can be turned into products and
services which create growth and jobs.
 "Youth on the move" - to enhance the performance of education systems and to facilitate
the entry of young people to the labour market.
 "A digital agenda for Europe" - to speed up the roll-out of high-speed internet and reap the
benefits of a digital single market for households and firms.
 "Resource efficient Europe"
- to help decouple economic growth from the use of
15
resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy , increase the use of
renewable energy sources, modernise our transport sector and promote energy efficiency.
 "An industrial policy for the globalisation era" - to improve the business environment,
notably for SMEs, and to support the development of a strong and sustainable industrial
base able to compete globally.
 "An agenda for new skills and jobs" - to modernise labour markets and empower people
16
by developing their of skills throughout the lifecycle with a view to increasing labour
participation and better match labour supply and demand, including through labour
mobility.
 "European platform against poverty" - to ensure social and territorial cohesion such that
the benefits of growth and jobs are widely shared and people experiencing poverty and
social exclusion are enabled to live in dignity and take an active part in society.
15
European Climate Foundation (2010), “Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous low carbon Europe”,
study carried out by McKinsey
16
European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (2010), “Skills supply and demand in Europe”,
Medium-Term Forecast, up to 2020
13
Of major importance is the “Innovation Union” flagship initiative. This initiative commits the
17
European Commission :
 To complete the European Research Area; to develop a strategic research agenda
focused on challenges such as energy security, transport, climate change and resource
efficiency, health and ageing, environmentally-friendly production methods and land
management and to enhance joint programming with Member States and regions.
 To improve framework conditions for business to innovate (i.e. create the single EU
Patent and a specialized Patent Court; modernise the framework of copyright and
trademarks; improve access of SMEs to Intellectual Property Protection; speed up setting
of interoperable standards; improve access to capital and make full use of demand side
policies, e.g. through public procurement and smart regulation).
 To launch 'European Innovation Partnerships' between the EU and national levels to
speed up the development and deployment of the technologies required to meet the
challenges identified. The first will include: 'building the Bio-economy by 2020', 'the key
enabling technologies to shape Europe's industrial future' and 'technologies to allow older
people to live independently and be active in society'.
There is a clear consensus about the usefulness and importance of forward looking activities
(foresight and forecasting) in building Europe’s future i.e. through the identification and
18
monitoring of grand challenges and associated solutions.
When preparing for the Common Strategic Framework (CSF) for research and innovation, the
EC organized a workshop in Brussels in 2011, with over sixty European forward-looking
practitioners from the research community, industry and civil society organizations
19
attending. The main conclusions derived from this workshop are (EC, 2011, p. 5):
1) A new model of open and collaborative innovation driven by users should be
developed recognising the role of innovative ‘ecosystems’ encompassing both
technological and non-technological aspects such as social, economic and cultural
forces.
2) Technological developments and social demands could be translated in future crosscutting research and innovation fields such as ‘Human-Technology cooperation’
(machines interpreting information, better knowledge of human brain, etc.),
‘Sustainable living spaces and infrastructures for the future’, ‘Environmentally friendly
and individually tailored solutions’, ‘Renewing services and production by digital
20
means’, ‘Manufacturing on demand’ and ‘Urban mining’ .
3) While Europe has to increase cohesion and convergence on research and innovation
among EU countries, in the newly global innovation networks it has also to intensify
the contacts with world scientific leaders and emerging countries.
4) European Union research and innovation should grapple with major global societal
challenges like natural resource depletion, energy and climate change and
urbanization, whilst at the same time tackling EU concerns of ageing, productivity
and social cohesion.
The nexus and interactions between the (exact) sciences and social sciences and humanities,
between engineering and social issues, between grand challenges and citizens’ daily lives are
increasingly relevant.
17
European Commission, “Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative – Innovation Union, SEC(2010) 1161 final, Brussels, 6
October 2010
18
European Council (2009), Brussels
19
European Commission (2011), “European forward-looking activities: building the future of ‘Innovation Union’ and
ERA”
20
This new way of thinking has been introduced in the BMDF foresight process, and provides an excellent starting
point for further framing and conceptualizing foresight exercises in Flanders.
14
Nations
A comparative overview
In the table below we present a comparative overview of the R&D and innovation priorities of
a group of selected countries (see also VRWI report 24 ”The 1%-target for public expenditure
on R&D: International Benchmark’ for a systematic description and analysis of a selection of
international strategic innovation agendas”).
Most of the reviewed forward looking studies do not attempt to define the grand challenges
driving research and innovation activities, but rather, adopt them from well-known documents
such as the Millennium Goals. The following societal challenges are mentioned explicitly in
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several foresight exercises :

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
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




Energy (securing energy supply and de-carbonizing energy production through new
sources and efficient use)
Counteracting climate change
Preserving biodiversity
Food safety and security
Preserving ecosystems services/securing a clean environment
Adapting to climate change
Securing water supply
Combating chronic and infectious diseases
Handling global conflicts
Understanding and dealing with changes in the social fabric, particularly demographic
change and also diversity
Ensuring well-being and quality of life
Ensuring resource security.
Transformative breakthrough priorities (‘transition areas’), combining science and technology
with social and cultural innovation (and through experimentation), are increasingly mentioned
in different foresight studies. Moreover, to a large extent there is even convergence between
several countries. The following transformative breakthroughs have been identified in other
22
foresight studies:






Energy transition (energy generation, storage, distribution, understanding and
modelling human behaviour, service innovation).
Bio-resource management (agricultural technologies, industrial biotechnology,
understanding and modelling human behaviour).
Sustainable patterns of production and consumption (production technologies and
concepts, systems thinking, understanding and modelling human behaviour, services
innovation, green housing etc.).
Human-technology continuum (lab-on-a-chip/bio-electronics, performance enhancers,
brain modelling, brain-computer interface, secure communication, trust, assistive
systems etc.).
Infrastructure transition (transport technologies, smart grids, service innovation, next
generation networks).
Living spaces (sustainable construction materials, green/smart housing, service
innovation, human behaviour, agricultural technologies).
These transition areas have also inspired the identification process of relevant transition
areas for Flanders.
21
Warnke P., (2012), “Towards Transformative Innovation Priorities”, European Foresight Platform”, EFP Brief No.
211
22
Ibid.
15
Table 1: Comparative overview of R&D and innovation priorities in selected countries (priorities are not presented in sequence of importance to the country in question)
France
Germany
China
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
Estonia
Japan
South Korea
Nuclear energy,
including
thermonuclear
fusion
Renewable
energy
Environmental
concerns &
renewable
energy focus
Nuclear energy
Climate
change, energy
(biofuels) &
sustainable
development
Renewable
energy
Environment,
energy
efficiency
(‘Rational
utilisation of
nature’ is one
of eight
strategic S&T
areas, for
example: bury
toxic waste,
restore water
quality, etc.;
Power
engineering &
energy saving
is other S&T
area for focus,
for example:
create powersaving
transportation
systems, heat
and electricity
distribution &
consumption
systems, etc.)
Natural
science
Energy
Chemicals
(Major priority:
receives the
most funding
from all the
strategic priority
fields, however
funding is in
decline;
intentions for
fast breeder
reaction cycle
technologies
development)
(South Korea’s
chemical
industry is
entering a
leadership
position on the
global market,
making
investments in
energy
resources, a shift
to high value
added products
and exploration
of
environmentally
friendly
technologies a
necessity)
(Seeking the
continual
reduction of GHG
emissions by
nuclear research
th
in 4 generation
systems or more
economical
reactors which
yield less waste;
Hosting the ITER
at Cadarache
which is the main
experimental
nuclear fusion
reactor around
the world)
(Need for applied
research and
innovation;
potential of solar
energy in
Northern Africa)
(Nanomaterials,
maglev trains,
developing
energy & water
resources, etc)
(Key areas:
nuclear
physics,
reactor
engineering,
fuel
reprocessing,
waste
management
and materials
research &
metallurgy)
(Climate
change: UKCIP
centre
coordinates
research over
climate
change,
national
adaptation
program
focuses on
fields such as
agriculture,
forestry and
others; energy
(biofuels): 5
main themes
are technology
and policy
assessment,
energy &
environment,
energy supply,
energy
demand &
energy
systems,
recently there
is an increased
focus on
(Focus on wind
and solar
energy)
(Creation of
competitive
research
environment,
attractive
career
conditions &
better R&D)
16
France
Germany
China
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
Estonia
Japan
Life sciences
(Future
developments
encompass cell
technologies,
R&D in stem
cells,
bioengineering
& biosensor
technologies)
Agricultural
development
(Increasing
applied
research in
order to meet
agricultural
challenges of
the future and
be successful
member of
European
research &
economic
community)
Fishing/whaling
(Amidst
international
criticism because
research on
whales is alleged
to be a cover for
commercial
whaling;
destruction by
2011 earthquake
requires huge
rebuilding and
innovation as all
major fishing)
ports were
destroyed)
Nanotech
(Nano systems
industry and
materials is
one of eight
S&T areas of
focus for
Medical &
health services
(national
programs to
solve socioeconomic
issues will
Social
infrastructure
(Future
developments
focus on ocean &
earth
observation
South Korea
biomass as an
energy source)
Sustainable
development
(Accelerate
convergence
between
environment &
development,
local & global
action, private
initiative & public
action)
Climate research
+ global food
supply
Biotech
Medical
innovation
(Committee will
head the strategy
process, with a
focus on 5 stages
in the innovation
(Focus on nanobiotech to fight
cancer and
additional
infectious
(These
investigation
programs have a
rather external
focus, focusing
on global
cooperation &
technology
transfer projects)
Agricultural
development
(Continuing
concentration
on agriculture)
Medicine &
public welfare
(Enhance R&D
level of
pharmaceutical
industry;
develop
Food supply +
agricultural
research
(Many
challenges like
food demands,
climate
change, small
landholdings in
the presence of
emerging agribusiness, etc.
Vision is
‘farmer first’:
focus areas are
food supply
chain, natural
resource &
biodiversity
conservation,
climate
change,
sustainable
technologies
and publicprivateinternational
cooperation)
Biotechnology
(Focus on
health science
biotechnology
such as foods
and
Medical
research
(Four main
research areas:
genetics and
development,
infections and
Semi-conductors
(Korean
semiconductor
industry is
expanding in a
healthy Asian
market)
17
France
Germany
China
India
UK
diseases)
chain: medical
equipment, R&D,
clinical validation,
financing &
tapping global
healthcare
markets)
biological,
agricultural &
pharmaceutical
technologies)
inflammation)
Math, physics &
chemistry
Microsystems &
nanotechnology
(Support goes
mostly to smalland mediumsized companies
and focuses on
collaborative
projects. Nearly
half of the
nanotech firms in
Europe are
German-based)
IT
improvement
(with a focus
on the financial
sector)
ICT +
computing
technologies
(Focus on
creation of
exportoriented
software
industry
through
development
of low-cost,
high-quality
software. EUINCOOP
project aims to
develop a joint
research
roadmap and
stimulate
cooperation
between India
& Europe in
computing
technologies)
ICT
Biotechnology
(High-tech
research is a
(Cutting-edge
technological
(12% of civilian
budget is devoted
to maths, science
& chemistry for
developments in
R&D)
Information
technology (two
fold plan:
increase research
Russia
Estonia
Japan
immunity,
neurosciences
and structural
biology)
Russia)
include
healthcare &
welfare
services)
systems)
Information
technology
Artificial
intelligence:
robotics &
micro-system
technologies
(Russia’s
position is
most
significant in
development
of modelling
technologies
and
applications of
information
technologies,
AI technologies
and
technologies
for parallel and
distributed
data
processing)
Information &
communication
technologies
(Remain
among the
leading
countries in
information
and
communication
technology)
Electronics &
nanotechnology
(Major
innovation
priority field:
Only major
innovation
priority field that
has seen
increased
funding since
2006; focus area
is x-ray free
electron lasers)
Industrial
production;
manufacturing –
shipbuilding &
shipping;
automotive
Information &
telecom
systems
Biotechnology
(Implement
technologies
that provide
Manufacturing:
automotive
(Major
innovation
Nanotech
(Striving for R&D
developments
that will foster a
(IT
employment is
projected to
grow more
than 2%
annually
between 2010
& 2019, IT &
telecom
professionals
are necessary,
particularly in
the
development
of green
technologies
and highly
skilled areas)
Brazil
South Korea
(Become a world
leader in some of
the most hightech industries;
large R&D
investments are
needed in
Korean
traditional
manufacturing
industries)
18
France
Germany
China
in this area &
improve
dissemination of
technologies to
the public at
large)
priority and
advancements in
ICT are explicitly
cited as a focus
area for
innovation)
area of focus)
Space
Pharmaceuticals
+ chemicals
(Vision of a
sustainable biobased economy
by 2030 includes
plan for biotech
developments
and R&D in
pharma industry;
Bio Industry 2021
supports
partnerships
between science
and industry to
include biotech
applications in
the production of
chemical base
materials and
Advanced
aircraft &
weapons +
speeding up
development
of space &
marine
(Space is at the
heart of strategic
challenges at the
military and
political level;
cooperation with
all of Europe is
vital; space
defence is a
specific area of
focus)
(China is
developing and
fielding
systems to
attack highvalue aircrafts)
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
Estonia
Japan
South Korea
(Tops the list of
the 8 S&T
priority areas
for Russia: the
focus is on
technologies
for intelligent
management
systems, for
transmitting,
processing and
protecting
information
and for
software
development &
information
systems)
high added
value and
productivity
growth in this
field)
priority field:
Desire to become
the world’s top
manufacturing
nation but also
suffering from
the devastating
effects of 2011
earthquake)
Nano-bio Korea
through research
in nanomaterials,
electronic
devices based on
miniaturisation
technology,
computer
memories and
molecular logic
devices)
Aerospace
innovation
Materials
technology
Aerospace
technology
(UK is second
most
competitive
country for
aerospace
technology and
wants to
improve this
position)
(One of the key
technologies
that should
have an impact
on society,
economics and
future growth)
(Japan is working
secretly on
aerospace
technology for
intelligence,
defence &
civilian remote
sensing
applications)
19
France
Germany
China
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
Estonia
Japan
South Korea
end products)
Transportation &
fuel needs
(Focus on
alternative fuels
&
environmentallyfriendly
production
methods,
coordination with
major European
and international
bodies)
Production
(mechanical) +
manufacturing &
engineering
(Focus is on the
potential of
environmental
technologies as
well as energy
efficient
machinery and
technologies)
Manufacturing
industry focus
(Desire to
master key
new materials
and advanced
manufacturing
technologies)
Cyber security
& attack
capabilities
23
(Using DDoS
attacks &
Trojans;
involving the
corporate
sector (such as
Huawei) and
telecommunica
tions
equipment;
developing
skills for
computer
network
attacks;
simulation
23
Security &
counter
terrorism
(One of eight
strategic S&T
priority areas,
goal is to
provide
national
defence &
technological
safety)
Weapons
technologies
(Work towards
self-reliance in
defence
systems and
producing
world-class
weapons in
various areas
of military
technology)
Cyber Defence
(Creation of a
centre for
cyber defence;
construction of
a war room;
training in
incident
response and
malware
analysis;
practice cyber
war games)
Cyber security
& attack
(Information
weaponry,
offensive
hacking &
scouting US
military and
private sector
websites and
networks)
Distributed Denial-of-Service attack (DDoS attack) is an attempt to make a machine or network resource unavailable to its intended users.
20
France
Germany
China
India
UK
Brazil
Russia
Estonia
Japan
South Korea
exercises for
network
scanning,
breaking
codes, stealing
data and other
malware)
Source: Taia Global (2012), “Where 13 Nations are focusing their High Priority R&D Capabilities”, White Paper
21
Below we present a number of additional insights for the US, China and India. The US is
traditionally of importance to Europe and Flanders in view of strong economic ties. China is a
strongly emerging economic power, soon expected to outperform Europe on several
dimensions. India, finally, is also an emerging economy with large business potential for
Europe and Flanders. The results presented below reflect the outcomes of recent foresight
exercises and do not necessarily reflect actual policy priorities or choices. As already
mentioned above, the results are presented as sources of inspiration.
In focus: United States
An influential series of foresight looking activities known as “Global Trends 2025 – A
24
transformed world ” is expected to guide US policy priorities in different policy areas in the
coming years. The main shifts are expected to be the following:







Worldwide strategic rivalries are most likely to evolve around trade, investments, and
technological innovation and acquisition.
Global wealth and economic power will shift from West to East, as a result of
increases in oil and commodity prices and lower cost basis in combination with
government policies that have led to a shift in manufacturing and some service
industries to Asia.
China, India and Russia are expected to become large economic and military powers
(in China and Russia, greater democratization is also expected, but this is not
certain). The US will be a less dominant power.
Unprecedented global economic growth will continue to put pressure on a number of
highly strategic resources, including energy, food, and water, and demand is
projected to outstrip easily available supplies over the next decade or so (demand for
food will rise by 50 percent by 2030; lack of access to stable supplies of water is
reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes).
New technologies could again provide solutions, such as viable alternatives to fossil
fuels or the means to overcome food and water constraints. The pace of
technological innovation will be important but transition is expected to be slow.
Technology, the role of immigration, public health improvements, and laws
encouraging greater female participation in the economy are some of the measures
that could change the trajectory of current trends pointing toward less economic
growth, increased social tensions, and possible decline.
Major discontinuities are expected; examples are use of nuclear weapons or a
pandemic. Energy transition is inevitable.
In terms of concrete policy priorities, the United States is heavily investing in selected Key
Enabling Technologies (also judged by Europe as essential for future growth and
25
prosperity ). Among these large scale initiatives are the “Advanced Manufacturing
26
Partnership” responding to the fact that the US has been losing ground in recent years as a
27
leading producer of manufactured goods. Next is the “National Nanotechnology Initiative”,
aiming to advance and accelerate the creation of new products and manufacturing processes
derived from discoveries at the nanoscale. These perspectives are not only technology
driven, as they also aim to build a better educated and more highly trained workforce, to
promote innovation and expand R&D, and to improve the global competitiveness of U.S.
companies.
24
Zie: http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-world
25
European Commission (2012), “A European strategy for Key Enabling Technologies - A bridge to growth and jobs"
Communication adopted on 26 June 2012
26
www.manufacturing.gov
27
www.nano.gov
22
In focus: China
China has been active in the implementation of forward looking studies and activities.
Springer and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) co-published a series of strategic
reports planning the next 40 years of progress in science and technology. Besides being a
general report, this project comprises 18 sub-group reports covering over a dozen scientific
disciplines (including energy, space, marine, advanced materials, bio-hylic and biomass
resources, mineral resources, ecology and environment, agriculture, ICT, hydrocarbon,
advanced manufacturing, large scale scientific facilities, nanotechnology and safety). All of
the field-specific foresight exercises take a 2050 perspective.
According to the main report, a new technological and industrial revolution characterised by
green energy, artificial intelligence and sustainable development is most likely to take place
during the next 10 to 20 years. 8 social economic systems backed up by science and
technology innovation should be developed:








Sustainable energy and resources system
New material
Information networking system
Ecological higher value agriculture
Health insurance system
Ecology and environment preservation
Space and ocean system
National and public security system
In terms of policy priorities, China is focusing its R&D efforts and capabilities in the following
28,29
policy areas:













28
29
30
Agricultural development;
Manufacturing industry: master key new material and advanced manufacturing
technologies to improve industrial competitiveness;
Financial sector: optimizing financing and budget systems infused with high-tech
R&D developments;
Environment: focus lies on breakthroughs in key technologies for environmental
protection, resources and energy development to serve sustainable development;
Medicine: aim is to enhance the bio-technological R&D level and capacity;
Public welfare: develop key biological, agricultural and pharmaceutical technologies
to improve the welfare of the Chinese people;
30
DDoS attacks (Trojans): while China has the most extensive cyber capabilities in
Asia, its technical expertise is considered “uneven”. Developments in this area are
expected to speed up;
Computer network attack and defence operations;
Cyber exercises for information reconnaissance, releasing network data, establishing
“network spy stations” methods of seizing control of communication networks of
Taiwan, Japan, India, and South Korea;
Advanced aircraft and weapons;
Space technology;
Renewable energy: focus on energy, water resources and environmental protection;
Biotechnology.
Taia Global (2012), “Where 13 Nations are focusing their High Priority R&D Capabilities”, White Paper
(http://www.taiaglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/13-Nations-RD-White-Paper.pdf)
LI, L., (2009), “Research Priorities and Priority-setting in China”, VINNOVA analysis
Distributed Denial-of-Service attack (DDoS attack) is an attempt to make a machine or network resource
unavailable to its intended users.
23
In focus: India
Supported by the European Commission, India has carried out a foresight exercise looking at
31
the future of Indian ICT . ICT has been the driving force for economic and technological
boom in the past two decades and the collaboration between Europe and India has
intensified, particularly in the area of R&D. In terms of R&D focus, two areas have been
identified: core technology development and sectorial applications of ICT. Among the core
technologies are:





Internet access: allocation of bandwidth, last mile connectivity, convergence of
mobile and internet technologies;
Networking technologies: large networked systems, machine to machine
communication, cloud computing, wireless networks and smart networks;
Monitoring systems, sensors for measurement & remote diagnostics, integrated with
wireless networks, generic and mobile devices;
Cloud Computing Applications;
Security algorithms for various systems and devices.
With regard to sectorial application of ICT, healthcare, energy, governance and education
emerged as important sectors that will need ICT integration.
Besides ICT (including computing technology), the following policy priorities have been
32
identified :
 Nuclear energy: focusing on nuclear physics, reactor engineering, fuel reprocessing,
waste management, and materials research and metallurgy.
 Food Supply/Agricultural research: focus on innovation in all areas of the food supply
chain, the conservation and enhancement of national wealth of natural resources and
biodiversity, adaptation in the face of climate change, improvements in sustainable
technologies, and increases in collaboration between public, private, national, and
international organizations.
 Weapons technologies and biotechnology.
31
Synchroniser, Synchronising the Research Policy Dialogue to the Indian Dimension,
http://www.euindiacoop.org/download/foresight_study_&_roadmap_paper.pdf
32
(http://www.taiaglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/13-Nations-RD-White-Paper.pdf)
24
5. SOCIETY AND CHALLENGES
Introduction
The 21st century is described as the century in which progress had never before occurred
so quickly. Technological and socio-economic developments are increasing rapidly. Energy,
food and water resources are increasingly controlled. Social relationships are changing.
World power relationships are also shifting. Climate changes make clear that future progress
will have to be based on new growth models and new paradigms.
There are several important societal challenges which need to be dealt with. The key
challenges and drivers summarised below are likely to increase in impact during the coming
15-20 years (or even earlier), for both Europe and Flanders.
Underlying overview and associated discussion is based on a number of important
accompanying assumptions that create the necessary space for new policy making.
1. An optimistic rather than a pessimistic view is taken;
2. While challenging, it is nevertheless assumed that the current welfare system can
and will be largely maintained;
3. The same applies to current levels of employment;
4. The competitiveness of companies in Europe can be maintained and even
strengthened;
5. There will be no major disruptive conflicts.
The overview and the discussion presented in this chapter are mainly based on an analysis
of the existing literature review. Further refinements took place during the interviews with
experts. Experts were also consulted on the clustering of the specific societal challenges in
groups – naturally on the basis of the initial grouping done by the study team.
Challenges faced
Societal challenges are increasingly prominent in the policy agendas for shaping new and
more effective policies. Increasingly, foresight studies pay attention to how particular future
solutions can tackle emerging social and societal challenges. Based on the challenges
identified by the European Commission, the United Nations, the World Bank and several
countries and regions (including Flanders), the most relevant challenges for Flanders have
been clustered into 6 groups.
Without any doubt, the current financial crisis faced by Europe, but also by other countries
in the world, is a very real and relevant context in which several other challenges should be
placed.
Under each group we present those specific challenges which have been identified. These
are subsequently discussed in more detail in the next section.
25
Groups
Headlines
Group 1: Health,
demographic change and
well-being
 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower
Group 2: Inclusive and
changing societies
 Social deconstruction (power distance, purchasing power, caring for
number of new-borns
 Social changes
 New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also psychological)
 Financing pressure





the disadvantaged)
Safety and security concerns of citizens
Affordable and accessible education
Human – technology interaction and cooperation (technology in daily
life)
New ways of organizing democracy
Diversity
Group 3: Natural
resources (agriculture,
food, water management,
forestry, biodiversity)
 Food availability and security
 Changing food patterns
 Food - Energy nexus
 Water availability
 Raw materials
 Maintain biodiversity
Group 4: Energy transition
 Changes in energy demand and delivery
 Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy
 External dependency (new geopolitical situation)
 Energy – Climate nexus
 Energy – Water nexus
Group 5: Physical space,
mobility and time
 Urbanization
 New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities, modularity, mixed target
groups)
 Green buildings
 Mobility
 Time management and time planning
 Accessibility and interconnectivity
Group 6: Global economy
and global labour force
 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and
relationships
 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international
politics and policies, rising conflicts
 Global labour market and war on talent: interrelationships, shortage of
highly skilled, training & education, mobility
26
Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being
 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of
new-borns
One of the biggest global challenges we face is over-population. With the refinements and
advances in medical technology, combined with increasing knowledge of health and
wellness, the world's population will grow rapidly in the coming decades, and will also
live longer. Worldwide life expectancy has risen from 46 years around 1950 to 66 years in
2012. In the more developed world it went up from 66 to 76 and efforts are still directed
33
towards making our life span even longer. Ageing, at the same time brings along a number
of important challenges such as social isolation, loneliness, depression and other neuro34
degenerative diseases, other health problems that need to be addressed.
According to the UN, between now and 2025, the world population will increase by 20% to
reach 8 billion inhabitants (6.5 billion at present); 97% of this growth will occur in developing
countries. It is likely that in western society, the population will not grow as rapidly as it does
in countries such as Asia and Africa. Consequently, in 2025, the population of Europe will
35
only account for 6.5% of the world population.
In Europe the fertility rate declines due to the introduction of modern contraceptives and the
desire to have fewer children; professional career ambitions play a role here as well. The
number of unwanted children diminishes, children are born later in life, and spacing becomes
easier.
Walter Laqueur warns of the major consequences of a declining European population (a
drastic population decline is expected), accompanied by ageing, integration problems and the
36
failure of the welfare state as is known today.
 Social changes
The extension of life expectancy in developed countries is increasingly considered both a
problem and a blessing. Advances in health care and medicine, nutrition, safety, and a
variety of other factors have been compounded by a drop in birth rates, leading in some
cases to a second demographic transition with rates below the net reproduction rate. This,
in turn, has led to a change in dependency rates (the proportion of the total population
outside the labour force), which then affects the structure of transfers, saving rates,
37
consumption patterns, care needs, social provisions, and economic growth in general.
In Flanders, due to the ageing population versus a not so fast growing younger population,
38
the dependency balance is expected to become unbalanced from 2025 onwards. Fewer
people in work have to support higher numbers of pensioners, as well as fund the rest of the
welfare system.
Ageing populations doubtless raise the issue of the affordability and financing of our social
and health care systems. Employees will work longer, which creates different tensions and
social challenges in different social groups (low versus highly educated people in terms of
differing life expectancies). Solidarity between generations will have to be safeguarded and
39
new forms of ‘local’ caring will have to be introduced, along with new financial models.
 New ‘modern’ and emerging diseases
Worldwide food supply is not evenly distributed which leads to an increasing inequality in
dietary patterns. Between now and 2050, growth in global population and changing diets in
40
emerging countries are projected to bring about a 70% increase in food demand.
33
34
Source: interviewee
Dexia (2010), “Vergrijzing: impact en uitdaging voor de lokale besturen”
35
European Commission (2009), “The world in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition”, DG Research
and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities
36
http://www.laqueur.net/index2.php?r=2&id=7
37
Source: interviewee
38
Source: interviewee
39
European Foresight Monitoring Network (2009), “Special issue on healthcare, healthy ageing and the future of
public healthcare systems”
40
OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf
27
Malnutrition and obesity will coexist in several emerging countries, putting high pressure on
41
health care systems. Obesity is a typical western disease. More than a third of the
population in the USA is obese today. One major cause is changing lifestyle. In today’s
consumption society, food is always available and can be consumed very quickly, cars and
public transport are used to move between places and due to the constant use of television
42
and computers, there is a lack of physical movement during the day. Children do not
43
escape these influences either. These factors combine to create massive health problems.
Furthermore, there is an observable increase in psychological and psychiatric diseases
particularly affecting the younger population in Western society. This development can be
related to increasing individualism, social deconstruction but also food consumption
44
patterns. Moreover, we will soon have to be prepared to protect ourselves against
upcoming emerging diseases caused by climate changes and global warming.
As a consequence, there will be a need for prolonged medical care and for versatile,
reliable systems that make patient - and therapy - specific data available to clinicians in real
45
time. Early detection of disease is a promising new application area that should be
combined with education and communication (all important prevention elements).
Food and food consumption should become school subjects in elementary school, as
consumers need to be informed and made aware of their food consumption behaviour. The
46
same applies to psychological and psychiatric diseases.
 Financing pressure
In order to tackle trends such as ageing, obesity and changes in climate as well as in
lifestyle, enormous pressure is expected to be put on public financing and today’s financing
models. Healthy life expectancy is rising, but not so quickly as total life expectancy. This
leads to the likely paradox that the most recent investments in health care systems and
47
treatments add to the prolongation of ‘unhealthiness’.
Furthermore, attention should be paid to the potential affordability gap between different
groups of society (rich/poor, haves/have-nots).
Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies
 Social deconstruction
One of the core dimensions of social life is the quality of our interpersonal relationships,
the nature of networks linking people together. The sociology of modernization has
repeatedly pointed at the shift from intimate, personal, primary bonds to mediated and
anonymous relationships, from the traditional family to contingent partnerships, from
deliberative communities to a life and world strongly influenced by technological evolutions.
48
More importantly, it has stressed the emergence of new forms of individualism. At the same
time, technological innovations create immense opportunities for new contacts and new
forms of relationships. This results in new forms of social organization, in virtual
communities, that may not yet be fully understood. New social identities provide followers
with a ready-made community that serve as a ‘social safety net’ in times of need.
41
Source: interviewee
43
European Foresight Monitoring Network (2009), “Special issue on healthcare, healthy ageing and the future of
public healthcare systems”
44
Source: interviewee
45
Source: interviewee
46
Source: interviewee
42
47
48
Source: interviewee
European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social
Sciences and Humanities
28
49
The family is one of the cornerstones of our society. However, the value of the family
structure itself is changing. Almost 50% of the Flemish children have more than one mother
or father, the so-called, mother, plus-mother, father and plus-father. Family constructions are
more complex than ever which has an influence on the structure of society. Individuals are
50
becoming predominant.
 Safety and security concerns of citizens
A significant characteristic when looking ahead towards 2025 includes a more pervasive
sense of insecurity, including the threat of terrorism. The key factors that spawned
51
international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next 15 years. Strong terrorist
interest in acquiring chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons increases the risk
of a major terrorist attack. Terrorists might acquire biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear
52
device, either of which could cause mass casualties. It is expected that terrorists will
attempt cyber-attacks to disrupt critical information networks and, even more likely, to cause
physical damage to information systems (see also the S&T priorities of several nations as
presented above). Safety and security concerns apply not only to individual but also to
infrastructure, goods and services. Towards 2020 it is expected that there will be a growing
53
need for new security strategies to reduce conflicts and terrorism.
54
Insecurity and crime are considered a major threat to the quality of life in the cities.
Security strategies need to be defined to make cities and regions save places to live, not only
by focusing on the approach towards ‘criminal elements’ but also by providing a safety net in
55
terms of reducing the risk of poverty and increasing life standards of living. Even before the
economic crisis, there were 80 million people at risk of poverty in Europe, including 19 million
56
children, and 8% of working people did not earn enough to make it above the poverty line. It
is important to address these issues, as a healthy and happy society delivers a safer
environment than a poor and fearful one.
 Affordable and accessible education
Education and training policies in Europe have gained impetus since the adoption of the
Lisbon Strategy in 2000, the former EU's overarching strategic program focusing on growth
and jobs. The strategy recognized that knowledge and the innovation it generates, are
society’s most valuable assets, particularly in light of increasing global competition. There are
challenges ahead: 25% of European school children have poor reading skills; too many
young people leave education/training without qualifications; under a third of Europeans aged
25-34 have a university degree (40% in the US, over 50% in Japan); and European
57
universities rank poorly in global terms – only 2 are in the top 20. High-quality pre-primary,
primary, secondary, higher and vocational education and training are important policy
challenges. In a rapidly changing world in which life expectancy rates are increasing, lifelong
learning needs to be a priority as this will be important for continuous employment, economic
success and full participation in society. Flanders benefits from a good educational system,
58
but there are major differences between the best and average pupils.
The long-term strategic objectives according to the EU education and training policies
59
are:


49
Making lifelong learning and mobility a reality;
Improving the quality and efficiency of education and training;
European Commission (2009), “Foresight Report: Facets and Preconditions of Wellbeing of Families”, Family
Platform, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities
50
Strategic Foresight Group (2008), “Global Security and Economy”, Emerging Issues Report
US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s
2020 Project
52
US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s
2020 Project
53
US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
54
55
Source: interviewee
56
European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals”
57
58
Zie ook het advies van de commissie Monard over de hervorming van het secundair onderwijs
51
59
29



Promoting equity;
Social cohesion and active citizenship;
Enhancing creativity and innovation, including entrepreneurship, at all levels of
education and training.
60
Education should remain affordable to all classes of society to avoid societal division.
Access to education is one factor; the other is ‘out of school’ support and mentoring offered
during the educational trajectory of the student, which could by afforded more easily by
wealthier people.
 Human – technology interaction and cooperation (technology in daily life)
As science and technology becomes increasingly integrated with daily life, technology is no
longer a simple tool for engineering and scientific research – it is widely recognized as an
important component in finding solutions to major social issues, such as healthcare,
education, energy, and environmental protection. High-tech breakthroughs - such as in
genetically modified organisms, e-solutions and increased food production - could provide a
safety net eliminating the threat of ageing, poverty, and ameliorating basic quality of life
issues.
The incorporation of technology into daily life requires training, education and
61
communication. This also implies that the interaction between humans and computers is
important, by considering how the brains reflect on interaction with language, the semantic
web, for example.
Technological developments offer new possibilities to make people's daily lives healthier,
safer, understandable, independent, fun and comfortable. They can offer society energyfriendly and sustainable solutions to improve the environment, as well as providing tools for
elderly people to live longer and autonomously in their own environment. In order to be
effective, guidance and acceptance are needed; people will need to be able to use them
properly as well as trusting, accepting and adopting them.
 New ways of organizing democracy
Increasing levels of migration and mobility put pressure on existing rules concerning the
62
participation of citizens in democratic processes (e.g. participation in elections/voting; the
possibility to take up political mandates) on different levels. What is the best way to organize
these processes in a multicultural society? People in the 21st century seem to want to be
closer and more directly involved with both the legislative and the executive branches of
63
government. Moreover, migration also raises issues on how to best deal with pluralism and
integration in society.
There are other aspects that relate to the facilitation of democratic processes. For example,
increasing digitalization makes it possible to reconsider the ways in which citizens are
involved in governance. Several countries are experimenting with digital platforms for
64
consulting citizens on different issues, or providing services through the internet.
 Diversity
In the future, we will live in a society that will become increasingly diverse because of
growing interconnectedness and intensifying migration patterns. Cultural diversity reflects the
qualities of different cultures, as opposed to monoculture. Respect for diversity, the fight
against racism and xenophobia and the promotion of ‘intercultural learning’ that encourages
tolerance, mutual respect and understanding in society in general, will become important
65
issues to tackle.
60
61
Source: interviewee
62
63
64
65
30
Group 3: Natural resources
 Food availability and security
Food availability is unequally distributed between continents and countries. Almost one
third of the world population has a diet which suffers from various qualitative deficiencies
(deficiencies in proteins, etc.). Malnutrition affects almost 2 billion people today. With the
predicted growth of the world population this number is expected to even increase (cf. Africa
66
and South Asia) as food demand in emerging countries is also expected to increase.
Reduction of agricultural land in favour of other socio-economic drivers (industry, housing,
etc.), irrigation problems and the consequence of climate changes (natural disasters like
67
floods and droughts) are expected to negatively affect agricultural production. As a
consequence, a tension between the supply and demand of food between countries can be
expected. Availability is also expected to be influenced by differences in purchasing power
(hence affordability) and the prices of foodstuff. According to the OECD (Organization for
Economic Co-operation and development) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization),
agricultural prices will, in the medium-term, remain higher than during the past decade. There
is currently insufficient knowledge about the underlying structural causes of present food
68
price increases.
As globalization intensifies, essential food exchange between regions of the world will
increase, mainly because some regions like Asia or Middle East/North Africa will not be able
to produce as much food as they are expected to consume under standard demographic
assumptions. The governance and regulation of trade will therefore be at the heart of
future food systems and food security, even in a scenario where maximum regional food self69
sufficiency is sought. Large-scale land acquisitions can be seen as an opportunity for
increased investment in agriculture for developing countries lacking the necessary capital.
But unequal power relations in the land acquisition deals can put the livelihoods of the poor at
70
risk.
 Changing food patterns
Trends in consumption are leading to an increasing variety of food consumed, changing
dietary habits, and a divergence in diet between the rich and poor. The latter may lead to a
so-called “health gap”, referring to differences in the physical and psychological condition
between the rich and poor. The nutrition transition towards more meat-based consumption
which is occurring in low and middle-income countries is expected to have worldwide
consequences for food supply, put stress on natural resources, as well as to further
negatively impact climate change (e.g. as a result of production and transport increases).
Evidence is emerging that a second transition is occurring from a diet rich in animal proteins
71
to one that is closer to health guidelines and which puts less pressure on the environment.
 Food - Energy nexus
The production of bio-fuels today requires the use of 4.5% of the world’s cereals and of 7.6%
of oilseeds. These quantities are even higher for specific markets: 30% of American cereals
are transformed into ethanol while 40% of European oilseeds are used for bio-diesel
72
production. Whereas the first generation of biofuels were made of sugars and vegetable
oils found in arable crops, the second generation biofuels can be manufactured from various
types of biomass (plant or animal materials). Growing food for energy production is
controversial and contradictory to the previously mentioned challenge of increasing global
food demand; hence a vast transition to the second generation seems to be desirable from a
societal perspective. The concentration of resources and power into a limited number of
multinational corporations, and the emergence of an agro-industrial model where food
66
IFPRI (2009), Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation
68
69
SCAR (2011) European Commission – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) - The 3rd SCAR
Foresight Exercise
70
71
72
67
31
products tend to become services more than products, poses a number of challenges as far
73
as dependency is concerned.
 Water availability
Shortages in water or increases in the cost of energy or agricultural products may have
enormous consequences. Water, food and energy are intertwined commodities. The
need for water will increase sharply with the increase in world population and the rise in the
74
standard of living in emerging countries. By 2030, a water supply shortage of approximately
40 percent is expected due to the combination of rising demand and climate-change-driven
75
shifts in water supply. In order to face these resource constraints, businesses and
consumers will have to adapt.
The need for water, not only drinking water, will become more important than ever, and a
number of new trends are likely to intensify. Water will be safeguarded much more in the
future whereas the fight for sea territory is likely to further emerge. It is plausible that seas
will be considered to be new territories. The Arctic, for example, or deep-sea issues are new
challenges for off-shore energy and for pharmaceutical discoveries. Climate change will also
have impacts on the coastal demography and de/re-localization of populations in several
76
parts of the world. Here, water can be regarded as a threatening force.
Sea life and feed are also an important resource. Major constraints, from this perspective,
concern the accessibility of fishing grounds, the overexploited status of some key stocks and
the control of costs. Because of the increasing depletion of fishing grounds, income is limited
by European quotas and effort limitations and further drops in quotas and increased effort
77
restrictions are likely.
 Raw materials
Concerning the availability and access to raw materials, Europe is facing a number of
challenges or supply risks in key sectors. We present the most important ones below, by
78
quoting a European Commission study on raw materials

In relation to the extractive industries, and in particular the mining & quarrying
industry, certain raw materials are critical due to the combination of lack of resources
within the EU, increased use in developing economies and their strategic importance
for products like future environmental technologies. Concerning the availability of
industrial minerals, Europe has a limited number of suppliers.

Concerning the steel industry, there are risks of limited access to most important raw
materials (iron ore and scrap) because of protectionist measures of emerging
economies.

For the paper and pulp sectors, there is the competing use of wood by less regulated
industries that might pose availability risks.

On chemicals, the race with China concerning demand for raw materials is being
lost.

For the car manufacturing sector, there is a higher dependency on foreign rare earth
material (for example for electrical vehicles).
The position and presence of Europe in global value chains will be important in order to
maintain access to important raw material.
73
SCAR (2011) European Commission – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) - The 3rd SCAR
http://www.grida.no/
Bloomberg, “Navigating the Water-Food-Energy Nexus”, January 2012
76
77
Flanders in Action (2012), “Pact 2020 Kernindicatoren Meting 2012”, Pact 2020
78
European Commission (2011), “Access to non-energy industrial raw materials and the competitiveness of the EU
industry, Summary report, Directorate-General Enterprise and industry
74
75
32
 Maintain biodiversity
Maintaining biodiversity as a natural resource is essential for the future. More attention and
79
care need to be paid to the natural environment if we are to keep on benefiting from it. In
order to support the shift towards a resource-efficient, sustainable, low-carbon society and
80
2
economy the EU propagates the reduction of CO emissions, promotion of greater energy
81 82
security and reduction of resource intensity of what is used and consumed. ,
 Changes in energy demand and delivery
Energy is of major economic importance. The source however, is not steadfast, and neither
is the consumption of energy. An expanding global economy is likely to increase the
demand for many raw materials, such as oil. The “oil peak” is likely to be reached in 2025 or
st
a few years later. Its secure supply is one of the greatest challenges of the 21 Century, with
83
the all the resultant, inevitable threats.
 Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy
Energy is also an area of significant opportunity and significance for people’s quality of life.
Rationalization of energy use without loss of comfort will be an important challenge.
Environment-related requirements and the dependence on raw materials produced abroad
will push towards new ways of producing, of consuming, of living, of moving; behavioural
84
changes will be needed.
Promotion of rationalization and new forms of energy can take place through measures
complementary to R&D, such as stressing energy efficiency, the adoption of green public
85
The range of
procurement policies and economic instruments such as taxation.
technological opportunities is also quite significant, including new energy efficiency and
energy generation technologies as well as conservation, recycling, waste reduction,
emissions and environmental control. The recycling of raw materials for energy generation is
also promising.
86
According to the EU 2020 targets, Belgium should strive towards a 13% share in renewable
87
energy. There is still a long way to go. The energy transition requires both technological
and socio-economic efforts in order to achieve higher levels of efficiency. Changes in social
behaviour stimulated by appropriate policies should contribute to a drastic reduction in
energy consumption.
 External dependency (new geopolitical situation)
The necessary shift in energy production and rationalization requires a global perspective.
International debates with regard to energy production, distribution and consumption, are
closely linked to the climate change challenge (e.g. Kyoto protocol and subsequent
agreements). The strategies of the major powers and the emerging countries regarding
climate protection strategies vary. At present, only Europe is ready to enter into binding and
88
quantified commitments and is the only region to propose long-term ambitious objectives. A
further challenge is to avoid an overly large dependency on energy supply from abroad.
Today, for example, Belgium is quite dependent on electricity supply from abroad, as a result
of the issues with our nuclear energy production facilities.
79
80
81
82
http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/AboutGEI/WhatisGEI/tabid/29784/Default.aspx
United Nations (2012), “Green Economy in a Blue World”
83
European Commission (2011), “World and European Energy and Environment Transition Outlook”, DG Research
Source: interviewee
85
Source: interviewee
86
87
European Commission (2012), “In-Depth Review for Belgium”, Commission Staff Working Document
88
84
33
 Energy – Climate nexus
Climate change, energy production and use, are strongly intertwined. CO2 emissions
originate from the production and use of energy. And CO2 emissions, in turn, provoke
negative climate change. Over the next 25 years energy demand is expected to increase by
89
60%. Fossil fuels, i.e. the main cause of CO2 emissions, will provide 85% of this energy. A
trend towards alternative ‘green’ energy sources such as wind energy which do not consume
water or emit climate changing greenhouse gases can be observed.
 Energy – Water nexus
A similar tension can be found with respect to energy production and water use. The energywater nexus is the relationship between how much water is evaporated to generate and
transmit energy, and how much energy it takes to collect, clean, move, store, and dispose of
water. Water is needed to generate energy; it is used to cool steam electric power plants –
fuelled by coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power – and is required to generate
hydropower. Water is also used in massive quantities during fuel extraction, refining and
production.
Energy is needed to deliver water: it is used to extract, move and treat water for drinking and
irrigation. Energy is also consumed when water is used by households and industry,
especially through heating and cooling. Both resources are limiting the other—and both may
90
be running short.
Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time
 Urbanisation
Although urbanisation in the western world has slowed down, on a global scale the
redistribution of people towards urban areas is still a major trend. Today more than 50% of
the world population lives in urban settings. This large-scale resettlement is accompanied
by profound social, cultural and psychological changes. Urban societies are increasingly
dependent on concentrated and complex infrastructures and network grids, thus becoming
more vulnerable to major disruptions. Flanders is an example of this trend.
The rapid growth of cities and the growth of urban concentration, accompanied by a stronger
connectivity at the local and even international level (cf. information and communication
technologies), will simultaneously generate complex ecological and social challenges and
opportunities (both economic and cultural, for example). The concentration of populations
within cities has long been viewed as a social issue generated by rural poverty (urban
91
migration) creating new problems (housing crises, slums, etc.). This is now being
reconsidered through the lens of sustainability. It is increasingly clear that in advanced
economies, which have significant resource needs and are still dependent on fossil fuels, a
highly concentrated urban habitat may prove more energy-efficient and sustainable than
92 93
dispersed patterns of settlement.
At the same time, as green open space is becoming scarce, some might argue that more
people should move to urban areas that need to be made more attractive for living (inclusive,
self-sufficient and resilient, through green roofs and self-sustainability in terms of energy
production, for example).
 New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities, modularity, mixed target groups …)
Availability and use of space, territory and landscape (political, social, urban, natural etc.) as
well as the overlap between physical space and virtual space is becoming increasingly
89
European Commission (2011), “World and European Energy and Environment Transition Outlook”, DG Research
90
91
United Nations (2011), Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: an international
persperctive
92
Source: interviewee
93
34
important, especially in Flanders. The human habitat and its landscapes are increasingly
94
being redefined. The modern city is both based upon and conducive to greater levels of
interdependence and cooperation. A number of economic processes capitalize on the
production of social relations, urban lifestyles, and networking that are made possible by
urban life itself. The traditional ‘industrial’ city organized around stable forms of work and
housing, managing essentially national problems (whether in terms of employment, housing,
citizenship, etc.) is slowly being replaced by a complex, open-ended urban space, the
boundaries of which are uncertain and often stretched far beyond the nation-state. The city is
where people from across the world come to seek work, knowledge, wealth, a home, etc. It is
also the place where inequality, poverty and crime are visible in concentrated forms. The
95 96
reshuffling of urban space and the identities which inhabit it is still underway.
 Green buildings
All buildings that will be built by 2020 need guidance in terms of construction methods in
order to obtain environment clearances and provide optimal living conditions. New and
97
existing buildings are targeted in order to make them green and carbon neutral. A whole
range of initiatives and technologies are being and will be put in place: passive design, onsite generation of energy from renewable sources, efficient appliances and light fittings,
98
purchasing green power, etc.
 Mobility
Society and mobility are going to transform. There are five practical considerations to
take into account: efficiency and environmental friendliness, community friendliness, safety
and reliability, ease of use, and, of course, affordability. This means, for example, that in the
near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can
‘punch in’ or ‘speak’ the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them
there. This ‘control feature’ will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to
sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and
mentally impaired. Traditional gas-powered cars will start to decline with electric automobiles
and hybrids taking up most of the slack. Attitude changes towards mobility and ways of
99
becoming mobile are expected to be necessary.
When it comes to freight transport, new possibilities will also have to be considered. New
opportunities lie in inland water transport requiring the adaptation of current and development
of new infrastructure. Challenges related to sustainable and accessible cities, sustainable
infrastructure, smart travel and transport, innovative travel systems and transport concepts,
price incentives, traffic and mobility data are faced. Mobility will also have to be connected to
time as a more general notion and pace of the rhythm of daily life (see also below). This
might include a further restructuring of the opening and closing hours of schools, business
100
and governments, and hour holiday planning could also be beneficial.
 Time management and time planning
The dimension ‘time’ will be interpreted and differently managed in the near future. For
those where the working conditions allow, working from home using super-fast data terminals
that rely both on information and entertainment is expected to increase. Traffic and mobility
are also expected to change: electric cars will transport people superfast to shops where
payments for goods and services can be made with a mobile phone. Citizens will be fully
wired into the national digital grid, sharing daily domestic data with public authorities, allowing
one to access their health, transport and education services, while providing them with details
on energy use and consumer needs. People are expected to do a lot of things within the
101
same time, perhaps allowing for more time for relaxation and leisure.
94
http://www.transitie.be, www.transitiefestival.be
Trendwachting.com (2012), “The Trend Report”
96
http://www.transitie.be, www.transitiefestival.be
97
Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (2012), “Innovatie in de bouw: Een strategische langetermijnvisie voor
de sector”, Eindrapport Innovatieregiegroep ‘Bouw’
95
98
Source: interviewee
Source: interviewee
Source: interviewee
101
Source: interviewee
99
100
35
 Accessibility and interconnectivity
st
Communication is essential in the 21 century. Interconnectivity and networks are key
concepts that largely determine the structure of a society. Interconnectivity means that all
the various devices we currently use become interconnected effectively. The first step in
growing interconnectivity is cloud computing. Cloud computing (see also below under the
starting field ICT) is the use of computing resources (hardware and software) that are
delivered as a service over a network (typically the internet). Cloud computing entrusts
remote services with a user's data, software and computation, enabling a broad range of
advantages for all levels and areas of society. Social networking is another important
dimension. Interactions through social media create a whole different type of interaction
among people, most likely leading to new norms and values. Information is shared almost
102103
Accessibility
instantly; information privacy concerns will become even more important.
and interconnectivity poses challenges in terms of how to capture the huge amount of data,
called “big data”, which is being created on a daily basis. Other challenges are associated
with the development of intelligent and smart environments, the internet of things and a new
generation of networks.
Group 6: Global economy and global labour force
 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships
According to the US National Intelligence Council, the world economy is likely to continue
growing impressively. By 2025, it is projected to be about 80% larger than it was in 2000,
and average per capita income will be roughly 50% higher. Of course, there will be cyclical
ups and downs and periodic financial or other crises, but this basic growth trajectory has
powerful momentum behind it. Most countries around the world, both developed and
developing, will benefit from gains in the world economy if they succeed to tackle issues such
104
as ageing populations and shrinking work forces in most countries.
Most forecasts to 2025 and beyond continue to show higher annual growth for developing
countries than for high-income ones. Countries such as China and India will be in a
position to achieve higher economic growth than Europe and Japan, whose aging work
forces may inhibit their growth and those countries will account for a higher share of revenue
growth between now and 2025. In 2025, the volume of trade could double in relation to 2005,
with an increasing number of exports coming from the countries of the South. The positions
of Asia and the European countries are likely to be reversed (see also Group 1 for reflections
105
on demographic changes).
More firms are expected to become global, and those operating in the global arena will be
more diverse, both in size and origin, and being more Asian and less Western in orientation.
Such corporations, encompassing the current, large multinationals, will be increasingly
outside the control of any one state and will be key agents of change in dispersing
technology widely, further integrating the world economy, and promoting economic progress
106
in the developing world. For Flanders, as an open and export-oriented economy, this may
imply reorientation of foreign direct investment, and import/export strategies, by developing
relationships with new upcoming economies.
102
Source: interviewee
Source: interviewee
104
US National Intelligence Council (2000), “Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment
Experts
105
106
US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence
Council’s 2020 Project
103
36
 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics
and policies, rising conflicts
At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949, has the shape and
nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux. Emerging powers in Asia,
retrenchment in Eurasia, a turbulent Middle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the
issues that have occurred in recent years. Institutions and governments will be particularly
challenged to meet the new complex transnational threats. Post-World War II creations
such as the United Nations and the international financial and economic institutions will have
to adjust to the profound changes taking place in the global system, including the rise of new
powers, the new role of the non-state actors and internal continental economic and political
107
developments.
A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large
populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for
China and India. The new geopolitical situation that will take shape with the rise of
emerging countries will probably have as a counterpart a new organization of international
relations. Within Europe, governmental structures on national, European and international
levels are likely to adapt their organizations with regard to new emerging powers and the
following trends towards 2025. By most measures – market size, single currency, highly
skilled work force, stable democratic governments, and unified trade blocs – an enlarged
108
Europe should be able to increase its weight on the international scene.
 Global labour market and the battle for talent: interrelationships, shortage of
the highly skilled, mobility
The global economy is driven by rapid and largely unrestricted flows of information, ideas,
cultural values, capital, goods and services, and people. The European Commission stresses
that a better knowledge economy with more opportunities will help people work longer and
relieve the strain. Knowledge will remain the main driver behind a growing economy. In an
increasing knowledge society, a question remains regarding the growth of intangible assets
(like human capital or use of ICT) and the share of these investments among the EU, US and
109
Asia.
An associated challenge is to safeguard our current levels of welfare and standards of
110
Predictions show that in order to maintain current levels, Europe will
living in Europe.
need to ‘import’ a substantial number of citizens from other regions. Advanced countries are
indeed expected to face a shortage of qualified labour (scientists, engineers, medical doctors,
software programmers). Immigration will, as a result, have to be better planned and be even
more selective. Employment levels, and the active work force, also present important
111
challenges, suggesting not only a battle for talent but also a fight for jobs in Europe.
World patterns of production, trade, employment and wages are transforming. There is
a growing, well-educated pool of workers available on the labour market that can be seen as
a competitive source of low-cost labour. Together with the growing mobility and emigration of
112
workers, this can result in ‘a battle for talent’ between knowledge intensive countries.
Higher wage levels in the OECD countries is expected to have a ‘pull’ effect on (skilled)
people from other parts of the world, leading to higher levels of migration, and thus
diversity/pluralisms within society.
107
US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence
Council’s 2020 Project
109
110
Humanities
108
111
112
European Commission (2010), “An Integrated Industrial Policy for the Globalisation Era Putting Competitiveness
and Sustainability at Centre Stage”, COM 2010(614)
37
Comparison with ViA and VSDO
The societal challenges identified above are quite similar to the challenges identified by the
European Commission in its ‘Vision 2020’. Similarly, there is also overlap with the societal
challenges identified in the ‘Flanders in Action’ strategy (ViA) and the ‘Flemish Strategy for
Sustainable Development’ (VSDO). In the table below we present an exploratory comparison
between the challenges identified in the present study, and the societal challenges identified
in ViA and VSDO.
Aside from the similarity between the challenges in the present report and the societal
challenges in ViA and VSDO, the present study also identified a number of other new or
slightly different challenges such as human-technology interaction, energy-water nexus etc.
38
Identified social and societal
challenges
Group 1: Health, demographic
change and well-being
Headlines
VIA
VSDO
 Population
 Social changes
 New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also
psychological)
 Financing pressure (related to health,
pensions, social security)
Group 2: Inclusive and changing
societies
 Social deconstruction (power distance,
purchasing power, carrying for the ‘weaker’)
 Safety and security concerns of citizens
 Affordable and accessible education
 Human – technology interaction and
cooperation (technology in daily life)
 New ways of organizing democracy (EU level
dimension, participation processes involving
citizens)
Group
3:
Natural
resources
(agriculture,
food,
water
management, forestry, biodiversity)
 ‘Fight’ for food, availability (meeting food
demand)
 Food - Energy nexus (bio fuels)
 Food security (governance of the supply
chain)
 Water availability, scarcity and cost structure
 Maintain biodiversity (land but also
marine/maritime)
 Transition towards greener and societally
acceptable forms of energy (changes in social
behaviour)
 External dependency (new geopolitical
situation)
 Energy – Climate nexus
 Energy – water nexus
Group 5: Physical space, mobility
and time
 New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities,
modularity, mixed target groups …)
 Green buildings
 Mobility (going from A to B)
Group 6: Global
global labour force
economy and
 Global economy: new emerging markets, new
trade patterns and relationships, creativity
 Global politics: new power order and
relationships, new international politics and
policies, rising conflicts
 Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains:
interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled,
training & education, mobility
39
6. SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
TRENDS
Introduction
The trends in science, technology and innovation have been studied by identifying and
defining so-called ‘starting fields’. These are rather broad areas of science, technology and
innovation that allow for multidisciplinary combinations and the identification of trends and
development of relevance to different societal challenges.
The starting fields have been selected and further refined on the following basis:
1. In order to ensure continuity with the 2006-2007 VRWI foresight study and to build on
the valuable work done, the fields (chapters/themes) considered formed a first
starting point.
2. The list of starting fields used in the German foresight study
prestigious study - formed a second starting point.
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- a high level and
These starting fields are generally broader in scope than the more specific and
internationally validated science disciplines or technology areas (e.g. Fraunhofer
disciplines) that are employed by bibliometric indicators such as international
collaboration, patents ….The reason for this is that current and future societal
challenges and opportunities require a broader and more multidisciplinary
perspective.
3. The list of major (future) technologies of importance to the European Commission
(KETs and Digital Agenda) formed the third starting point.
These technologies provide the basis for innovative processes, goods and services
that will contribute to tackling numerous societal challenges. Major importance is put
on the deployment or commercialization of KETs based products and services,
through the creation of adequate framework conditions and support instruments,
involving state aid rules, trade policy and the access to financial means. KETs are
‘horizontal’ in nature as they have a very broad spectrum of application.
4. In view of the increasing importance of Social Sciences and Humanities, this field
was added to the list.
It has been a deliberate choice not to build upon the Fraunhofer technology classification, as
this chapter does not intend to provide an in-depth description of all possible technology
developments within different technology domains. Rather, the aim of this chapter is to offer
an overview of technological developments that can offer solutions to the societal challenges
identified in chapter 4. This also implies that some starting fields are connected to other
starting fields (e.g. nanotechnology has links to energy, ICT, security). Where possible, these
links have been made explicit.
The domains of interest to the VRWI and Captains of Society and Industry need to be further
expanded in-depth with technology experts in the second and third phase of the project cycle.
This chapter is based upon a literature review. Consultation of technology experts has not
taken place, as the remainder phase of the study is a more appropriate place/time to do so.
In the table below, the final list of considered starting fields is presented.
113
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering
(IAO) (2009), “Foresight Process”
40
Starting field
In 2006/7 foresight
Social Sciences and Humanities
(SSH)
Advanced materials
ICT
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology



Photonics
Advanced manufacturing
technologies
Health


Water
Food and agriculture
Environment
Systems research
Energy




Cognitive neurosciences
Knowledge Intensive Business
Services
Security
Mobility and transport


BMBF starting fields






KETs/ Digital
Agenda














A final comment before entering the more detailed field-specific discussion further on in this
chapter concerns the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH). SSH research is important to
most, if not all, of the societal challenges and is thus quite ‘horizontal’ in nature (similar to
KETs).
How can SSH contribute? It may complement non-SSH starting fields to tackle complex
societal challenges. For instance, environmental technologies can, based on a
multidisciplinary approach, be complemented by innovative consumption models provided by
SSH fields such as sociology or psychology to tackle the environmental challenges in Group
3 (see previous chapter). Secondly, SSH can also offer ‘stand-alone’ solutions to societal
challenges independent of the scientific, technological or economic progress stemming from
non-SSH starting fields, such as the use of innovative models to tackle poverty, social
cohesion, problems related to multicultural society, financial crisis, etc.
It is important to note that the level of detail of the discussion below varies by starting field, as
certain fields are more established and can be discussed in more detail, while others are
more recent, and their direction of development has still to be observed.
41
114
“Social sciences are academic disciplines concerned with society and human behaviour .
‘Social science’ is commonly used as an umbrella term to refer to disciplines like sociology,
psychology, architecture, design, pedagogy/education, economics, innovation and new
product development etc. The humanities are academic disciplines that in general study the
human condition. The exact delineation of the field is still debated among the research
community.”
Headlines
Scientific and technological solutions to societal problems no longer suffice nowadays in
order to find integrated, multidisciplinary, and long lasting solutions. Research in SSH is
therefore important and pivotal, from two perspectives:
1. Complementing scientific and technological solutions in order to counter complex
societal problems and challenges (the ‘transversal’ role).
2. Providing new insights on a large scale to societal problems and challenges like
poverty, social deconstruction, loneliness, etc. (the ‘vertical’ or ‘stand-alone’ role).
115
may increase
Key disciplines such as sociology, psychology, pedagogy, religion, culture
the understanding of how societies work and change, including beliefs and values, and
provide valuable insights about how societies can best respond to observed societal
challenges. Horizon 2020, the EU’s new program for research and innovation, emphasizes
the importance of SSH, partly because the expertise from SSH can contribute to all science,
technology and innovation fields ranging from ICT to food and agriculture; and partly because
116
of the independent solutions that may be offered with respect to societal challenges.
More specific trends and developments
The Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) cover a whole range of disciplines. Below we will
look in more detail at particular developments in those SSH disciplines that have been
identified (during this study) as important and relevant in tackling future societal challenge
(i.e., sociology, psychology, pedagogy, economy and law).

Sociology
Sociology is the scientific study of human social behaviour and its origins, development,
117
It is a social science that uses various methods of
organizations, and institutions.
empirical investigation and critical analysis to develop a body of knowledge about human
social activity. Traditionally, sociologists focus on social stratification, social class,
culture, social mobility, religion, secularization, law and deviance. In recent years, we see
a broadening of sociology towards other areas like health, medical, military and penal
institutions, the internet and the role of social activity in the development of scientific
knowledge.
Relevant and actual research topics in sociology include:




114
115
Structuring elder care arrangements
Riots in urban modernism
Employment in green societies
Gender inequality
Malcolm Williams. 1999. Science and Social Science: An Introduction. Psychology Press
European Commission (2010), “Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe”, DG Research and Innovation,
116
Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe
http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf
117
American Sociological Association
42

Psychology
Psychology is an academic and applied discipline that involves the scientific study of
118
mental functions and behaviour. Psychology has the immediate goal of understanding
individuals and groups by both establishing general principles and researching specific
cases. Psychologists attempt to understand the role of mental functions in individual and
social behaviour, while also exploring the physiological and neurobiological processes
that underlie certain cognitive functions and behaviour. In the figure below we present an
overview of key current and future research topics.
Source: American Psychological Association
The figure above clearly shows that Psychology can provide insights and solutions for a
large range of topics that relate to numerous societal challenges (see previous chapter).
For example, understanding (together with research in other areas like genetics) how
emotional health works and can be influenced through particular food diets, can have a
strong disease prevention effect. Anxiety, and the ways in which it can be reduced, will
also increase wellbeing and general feelings of security.

Pedagogy (education)
Pedagogy is the science and art of education. Its aims range from the full development of
the human being to the acquisition of skills. Educational research links to student
learning, teaching methods, teacher training, and classroom dynamics. Pedagogy deals,
among other things, with research on the transfer knowledge and expertise. Several of
the societal challenges identified (see chapter 4) are directly or indirectly linked to
education. For example, how to create a healthy diet should be an important topic in
school teaching. The same applies to gender equality, the use of technologies,
entrepreneurship etc. Pedagogy and educational research can also strongly benefit from
a whole range of technological solutions, like smart billboards, computers in the class
room, distance learning enabled by ICT etc.
An important pedagogical research topic links to pluralism. Under the European
119
Commission’s SSH program, research has been carried out on the following topics:
118
119
American Psychological Association
European Commission (2011), “Project information Pluralism and religious diversity, social cohesion and
integration in Europe”, Insights from European research
43

School life:
o
o
o

language (speaking of minority languages, regulation of abusive
language, learning to discuss controversial issues such as
homosexuality or anti-Semitism);
dress (including the religiously motivated, school uniforms);
behaviour (including violence, gestures, sexist or racist acts).

Curriculum, pedagogy and educational culture:
o teaching: i.e. teaching history (e.g. Holocaust, national history), teaching
on gender/sexuality, teaching of religion;
o the non-accommodation of specific demands (e.g. school swimming).

Structure of the educational system:
o segregation/mixing of ethnic, religious and cultural groups;
o tolerance and parallel educational institutions.
Economy
Economics is a field that seeks to analyse and describe the production, distribution, and
consumption of wealth. It concerns the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and
120
Economics has two
wants and the study of financial aspects of human behaviour.
broad branches: microeconomics, where the unit of analysis is the individual agent, and
macroeconomics, where the unit of analysis is an economy as a whole. Economy is
related to almost all societal challenges. It is the study of the distribution of wealth,
consumptive patterns, and means of production. Social stratification determines all of
these attributes of economics. An major topic in this area is the impact of the economic
crisis, an event that shakes the fundaments of society because of an ever increasing gap
between rich and poor; the growing unemployment rate; the widening mazes in the social
safety net; the increase in revolutionary political movements etc. The expectation is that
problems associated with social inequality and exclusion will be experienced to a greater
121
Employment
extend by immigrant and ethnic populations than by other social groups.
is also an important topic as an expected shift in consumer power towards China and
India might be an important influence for delocalisation (see also societal challenges
122
presented above).

Law
Law refers to a rule which (unlike a rule of ethics) is capable of enforcement through
institutions. However, many laws are based on norms accepted by a community and thus
have an ethical foundation. The study of law crosses the boundaries between the social
sciences and humanities, depending on one’s view of research into its objectives and
effects. Law is not always enforceable, especially in the context of international relations.
It has been defined as a ‘system of rules’, as an ‘interpretive concept’ to achieve justice,
as an ‘authority’ to mediate people’s interests, and even as ‘the command of sovereign,
123
However one likes to think of law, it is a
backed by the threath of a sanction.’
completely central social institution. Legal policy incorporates the practical manifestion of
thinking from almost every social sciences and humanity. Law is also philosophy,
because moral and ethical persuasions shape their ideas. Law tells many of history’s
stories, because statutes, case law and codifications build up over time. And law is
economics, because any rule about contract, tort, property law, labour law, company law
120
Roger E. Backhouse and Philippe Fontaine, eds. (2010) The History of the Social Sciences Since 1945
(Cambridge University Press) 256 pages; covers the conceptual, institutional, and wider histories of
economics, political science, sociology, social anthropology, psychology, and human geography.
121
122
123
Robertson, Geoffrey (2006). Crimes Against Humanity. Pengui
44
124
and many more can have long lasting effects on the distribution of wealth.
An
important topic in this area is the legal systems which are challenged by globalisation,
125
Privacy
new technologies, financial crisis, demographic and ecological changes etc.
regulations become increasingly important due to new technological development.
Government digital control systems and the war against terrorism also constitute a threat
126
to both privacy and civil rights.
Potential ‘solutions’ stemming from SSH
SSH research may contribute to societal challenges independently, but can also complement
other science, technology and innovation solutions, by studying past and current events,
changes and their influence on society. This information can help bridge the gap between
research and market (composed of citizens) and as such help solving societal challenges
127,128,129
Examples of contributions of SSH are the
and create economic value added.
130,131
about certain environmental challenges, or about
enhancement of public awareness
social disintegration and inequality, for example.
Below we present a number of examples on how SSH research can address particular
132,133
societal challenges

Challenges related to “Health, demographic change and wellbeing”
Health does not only concern physical matters but also involves mental health. Mental
disorders even amount up to 1/3 of the disease burden. One contribution of SSH could
be to investigate factors responsible for the occurrence of mental problems and
prevention, treatment and rehabilitation (through e.g. psychological and neurological
research). To sustain the general wellbeing it is important to engage in medical care as
well as social care.
134
and in particularly increasing pluralism in society,
In relation to demographic changes
SSH can provide answers on how cultural diversity can be accommodated within society
while addressing issues about equality and human rights. The interaction between
governance and the religious beliefs of recent immigrant populations, particularly
135
followers of Islam, are SSH research topics.

Challenges related to “Food security, sustainable agriculture, marine and maritime
research, and the Bio-economy”
Government is responsible for ensuring the food safety of its citizens. In order for policies
to be accepted and sustained, informing citizens is a crucial factor. Concerning
124
Roger E. Backhouse and Philippe Fontaine, eds. (2010) The History of the Social Sciences Since 1945
(Cambridge University Press) 256 pages; covers the conceptual, institutional, and wider histories of
economics, political science, sociology, social anthropology, psychology, and human geography.
125
Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon 2020
126
127
128
LERU Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon
2020
129
DG for Research Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. Emerging Trends in Socio-Economic Sciences and
Humanities in Europe: The METRIS Report. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/metrisreport_en.pdf
130
131
Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon 2020
132
133
DG for Research Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. Emerging Trends in Socio-Economic Sciences and
Humanities in Europe: The METRIS Report. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/metrisreport_en.pdf
134
The Social Issues Research Centre (2011), “2020 Vision: The Trust Fund Generation”
135
European Commission (2011), “Project information Pluralism and religious diversity, social cohesion and
integration in Europe”, Insights from European research
45
agriculture and maritime changes, SSH can contribute to understandings of change and
its impact on the current state of society, enabling citizens to adapt to new future
situations. SSH can contribute to a better understanding of the potential risks associated
with new technological solutions (like GMO), but at the same time SSH can help to create
a new society built on less consumption and avoidance of waste.

Challenges related to “Smart, green and integrated transport”
Knowledge about citizens’ behaviour and attitudes are essential in order to fully control
transport pollution. Will cities become more concentrated? Will social media have an
effect on transport? SSH can map these and other issues and, as such, optimize
technological innovation in transport. Similarly, SSH can provide a view on what type of
society we could create in order to safeguard the environment and the future.

Challenges related to “Inclusive, innovative and secure societies”
The contribution of SSH here can be twofold. Research can focus on the cultural, identity
and social changes leading to European societies and/or on the freedom and security of
Europe as a global actor. SSH could provide a clear view on how to deal with societal
tensions such as social isolation as the result of poverty.
Potential directions may be new inclusive economic growth models based on the
stimulation of social innovation or the stimulation and use of creativity and creative
thinking in more classical sectors of the economy.

Challenges related to “Secure, clean and efficient energy”
SSH research can contribute to the understanding of energy policies and
technological/science innovations and its effect on citizens in order to enhance the
adaptation process of changes by citizens; at the same time SSH could also provide
answers on different aspects relevant to the use/consumption of energy. For example,
what type of policies should apply to poor people in order to supply energy?

Challenges related to “Climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials”
Scientific argumentations alone will not convince citizens to change their behaviour or to
demand policy actions. SSH can increase awareness of this challenge and its general
influence on society and thus persuade people to change their behaviour.
Advanced Materials
“Advanced materials can be defined in numerous ways; the broadest definition is to refer to
all materials that represent advances over the traditional materials that have been used for
hundreds or even thousands of years. From this perspective advanced materials refer to all
new materials and modifications to existing materials to obtain superior performance in one
or more characteristics that are critical for the application under consideration. A more
insightful and focused approach to advanced materials is to consider materials that are early
136
in their product and/or technology lifecycle. ”
Headlines
The most important development in 2011 has been the big burst of new materials. Materials
are perhaps the most applied domain of technologies within our society, as they are the
building blocks of most physical products. Advanced Materials are at the basis of multiple
value chains and enable industrial innovation. Advanced materials are needed in developing
better performing and sustainable products and processes. Advanced materials are part of
the solution to tackle industrial and societal challenges, offering better performance in their
use, at lower resource and energy requirements, and improved sustainability at the end-of137
life of the products. The European Commission has identified Advanced Materials (AM) as
136
Basbanes, L. V. (2007), “Advanced Materials Research Trends”, NOVA publishers,
137
European Commission (2011), “Materials Roadmap Enabling Low Carbon Energy Technologies”, Working Paper
46
one of the Key Enabling Technologies, underscoring its importance. The UK Technology
Strategy Board defines Advanced Materials as “materials, and their associated process
technologies, with the potential to be exploited in high value-added products, are both a
multidisciplinary area within itself (including, for example, physics, chemistry, applied
mathematics) and cross-cutting over both technology areas (e.g. electronics and photonics,
biosciences) and market sectors (e.g. energy, transport, healthcare, packaging)”.
Advanced materials refer to new types of material groups and manufacturing methods:



138
New material groups, e.g. nanostructured materials, metal matrix composites, multimaterials structures, functionally graded materials, smart/active materials;
New manufacturing methods, e.g., multi-materials structures, spray deposition, new
coating, joining and castings methods, powder metallurgical methods, composite
materials;
Hybrid material systems, novel use of advanced high performance materials together
with commodity materials in multi-material structures.
The European Technology Platform EuMaT has established several working groups to
develop R&D priorities and a strategy for the EU with regard to Advanced Materials. The
current groups focus on 7 priorities:

Modelling and Multiscale
This group deals with any aspect related to the modelling of materials and their
transformation processes as it is currently impossible to imagine significant steps forward
in material science without the support of advanced and reliable modelling design
capabilities of materials and their behaviour in operating condition and full life cycle view.
Materials modelling will play an increasingly important role.

Materials for Energy
This group deals with materials for power generation, both fossil and renewable;
materials for energy transmission, distribution and storage; and materials for energy
conservation (see also starting field ‘Energy’).

Nanomaterials and Nano-Assembled Materials
This group focuses on the following material issues: multifunctional nano-assembled
materials for components and micro-systems; functional packaging materials for MST;
recyclable high performance polymer nano-composites, metal matrix materials and
advanced metal-polymer-ceramic composites; engineered nanostructured surfaces; low
cost fabrication of coatings for harsh environments; and modelling of quantum-properties
of nanostructures.

Knowledge-based Structural and Functional Materials
This group deals with a variety of materials issues related to: ceramics; metals and
alloys; functionally graded materials and coatings; smart coatings; hydrogen storage
materials and systems; functional multilayer materials for sensors and actuators.

Lifecycle, Impacts, Risks
This working group looks at: the risks of innovation; the risk of non-performance or
performance below expectations; the risk of adverse and unexpected effects and
impacts; risks over the life-cycle of products and technologies; and project risks.

Materials for Information and Communication Technologies (ICT)
This group deals with piezoelectric and metamaterials. Piezoelectric materials facilitate
energy conversion from mechanical to electrical and vice versa. Metamaterials are microand nanostructured artificial electromagnetic materials which offer an opportunity to
138
Roadmap of the European Technology Platform for Advanced Engineering Materials and Technologies
47
realize electromagnetic material properties not available in nature (see also starting field
‘ICT).

Bio-Materials
This working group will focus on bioplastics, bioactive materials and biofibres (see also
starting field ‘Health’).
Additional fields of interest are lightweight materials, medical materials, multi material joining
and materials for additive manufacturing or 3D printing. 3D printing is an additive technology
139
in which objects are built up in layers in a process that often takes several hours.
Lightweight materials and design are important topics in product design across several
industries such as the avionics and the car industry. The significance of lightweight materials
is largely driven by their role in achieving greater energy efficiency. Novel joining
technologies such as adhesive bonding, mechanical fastening, and non-conventional welding
are increasingly being developed, while a lot of progress in expected in the deployment of
additive manufacturing or 3D printing. Advanced materials for medical applications require a
fundamental understanding of materials in use as the biological, physical, and chemical
characteristics of the material need to be balanced with its process ability and cost.
Advanced materials also play an important role in the transition to a knowledge-based, low
140
‘Materials
carbon resource-efficient economy. The Commission staff working paper
roadmap enabling low carbon energy technologies’ provides a detailed agenda of the efforts
needed over the next 10 years on materials R&D for energy applications in the EU. The
energy technologies considered are: wind, photovoltaic, concentrating solar power,
geothermal, electricity storage, electricity grids, bio-energy, novel materials for the fossil fuel
energies sector (including carbon capture and storage), hydrogen and fuel cells, nuclear
fission and energy efficient materials for buildings. The individual materials roadmaps for
these energy technologies are based on scientific assessments. The work of the European
141
is also important in this respect.
Climate Foundation
ICT
“Information and communications technology or information and communication technology
(ICT), is often used as an extended synonym for information technology (IT), but is a more
specific term that stresses the role of unified communications and the integration of
telecommunications (telephone lines and wireless signals), computers as well as necessary
enterprise software, middleware, storage, and audio-visual systems, which enable users to
142
access, store, transmit, and manipulate information. ”
Headlines
In the coming decennia a number of (already ongoing) changes will mark the ICT sectors as
they are known today. Firstly, one can already witness an exponential growth in computing
power, network and storage capability. This is expected to continue in the coming years.
The industry will change: the boundaries between the classical ICT sectors and other
industries will blur; more partnering, value chain integration and mixed ecosystems (involving
suppliers, producers and customers) will occur, leading to new business models even in one
and the same market. Open source will spread from ICT to other industries. All this will take
place under the increasing danger and risks stemming from cyber fraud.
139
http://www.explainingthefuture.com/3dprinting.html
140
European Commission (2011), “Materials Roadmap Enabling Low Carbon Energy Technologies”, SEC(2011)
1609 final
141
European Climate Foundation (2010), “Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous low carbon Europe”,
study carried out by McKinsey
142
IT Knowledge Exchange; Cloud network architecture and ICT - Unified communication(UC) technologies,
integration of telecommunications, computers, middleware and the data systems that support, store and
transmit UC communications between systems, http://itknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com/modern-networkarchitecture/cloud-network-architecture-and-ict/
48
ICT covers a broad spectrum of technologies with multiple applications. It is expected that the
sector will first of all become more consumer driven in the near future (instead of technology
143
The industry is still characterized by many as being relatively new; established
driven).
players like IBM have undergone major changes and new players such as Google, Amazon,
eBay, MySpace and YouTube are less than 10 years old. Performance of information
processing activities has changed (and will continue to change) drastically over time as
illustrated below:






Processing power that has grown according to Moore's Law, doubling every eighteen
months and storage capacity has shown a similar trend.
The number of inferences that processors can execute is predicted to equal that of the
human brain (16K/s) by 2030.
Lighter and more mobile hardware.
Telecommunications investment and digitalization.
Converging technologies leading to new products and services.
Application across almost all industries and markets.
Below we present a concise overview of the most relevant trends expected in the coming
144,145
The technology that will put computing on track to
years (20 year time horizon).
transform our lives is found in the world of sub-atomic particles of quantum computing. With
its power and size, these computers will transform our daily activities.

Quantum computing
A quantum computer can be implemented using particles with two spin states: 'up' and
'down' to represent the binary digits that form the basis of digital computing. The
factorization of large integers (whole numbers), which is believed to be computationally
infeasible with an ordinary computer, into the product of two prime numbers of roughly
equal size would be achieved relatively easily with a quantum computer. This would allow
a quantum computer to 'break' many of the cryptographic systems that are in use today,
because the task could be carried out with greater efficiency. Breaking these would have
significant implications for Internet privacy and security. The increased processing power
achievable by quantum computers would be a great boom to the sciences and medicine
and the IT and computing technologies that surround these areas but pose some
problems to e-commerce security.

The Semantic Web
The Semantic Web will be the bridge that creates intelligent and 'knowing' devices and
services. It is about enabling the information on the Web to be understandable so that we
can simply have a machine find and interpret information on the Web and report it back
to the user (user driven applications). It is expected that the development of the Semantic
Web will automate many tasks that ‘knowledge workers’ do through a network of
machine understandable knowledge. Network intelligence will be used in daily life.

IT enabled social networks and Web 2.0
Social networks are virtual communities organized around a range of special interests
(examples are Wikipedia, My Space, YouTube). They are only a recent phenomenon but
their popularity is increasing strongly. Media conglomerates have begun to acquire the
146
Consumer-generated media has major commercial and
most established sites.
143
Accenture (2011), “Accenture Technology Vision 2011 - The Technology Waves That Are Reshaping the
Business Landscape”
144
Ballarat ICT 2030, foresight study carried out by Ballarat, Australia
145
Consultation of the Vision and the Strategic Research Agenda’s of the so-called ICT platforms ARTEMIS, ENIAC,
EPoSS, EUROP, ISI, NEM, NESSI, Net!Works and Photonics 21
146
Social networking site MySpace launched an Australian site in August 2006, having been acquired by News Ltd
for US$580 million. YouTube, founded in a home garage in 2005, was sold to Google 18 months later for
US$1.6 billion.
49
economic implications. The relatively low costs of participation is allowing businesses to
trial a range of new media devices; they are used for advertising, opinion sponsoring,
public relations, customer relationship management and market research. Accordingly,
Web2.0 and the development of symmetric broadband with comparable upload and
download speeds, will transform social networks. Social networks are expected to
become important channels for industry (or virtual) collaboration, social mentoring and a
revolution in consumer generated content.

Media
Accessibility of newspapers and other types of media has changed and will continue to
do so. Information access via the internet has led to mass media becoming social media
(or at least that the boundaries between the two are blurring). Individual choices in
content selection imply that ‘broadcast’ is becoming ‘narrowcast’: the latter is the
provision of niche environments for specific interest groups which may lead in the end to
every consumer becoming a specific interest group. Communication channels completely
independent of TV, radio and newspapers will increase, thereby facilitated by mobile
(phone) applications.
Impact on various sectors is expected. For example, in the health sector (knowing a socalled ‘information problem’ with respect to communicating and presenting health
information while at the same time using this information in decision support), the ability
to integrate information systems with communication services has much to offer.
Likewise, the tourism sector may also benefit, as services and information dissemination
can be further customized and automated.

Gaming and Animation
Gaming is become an increasingly important industry. In what follows we present a
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One of the biggest trends could be the growth in casual
number of major trends.
gaming on mobile devices. People are now turning to their phones and getting their
gaming fix in small, simplistic doses. A second trend is cloud gaming or subscription
gaming. The ability to handle all processing and storage in the cloud means that gamers
could sign up for a gaming service. A third trend concerns user generated content,
whereby the user produces content and further customizes games according to their
desire and wishes. Users are therefore involved in a continuous optimization process.
The rapid advancement of technology has made computer animation available to the
masses and the animation industry is one of the fastest growing industries. Animation is
increasingly used in video games and movies are also increasingly reliant on animation
and computer graphic special effects. Outsourcing to Asia is another major trend. The
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bulk of the outsourcing relates to 2D animation content with some 3D content.
Major trends in Animation are the following:






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Stop motion animation is hip again
Interest in hand-crafted animation grows
Combine animation with programming
Children's TV animation rediscovers its craft roots
Photorealistic CG meets traditional animation
Mobile communications
Mobile communications that incorporate video using low cost peer-to-peer Internet
telephony network providers (e.g. Skype) and wireless are currently changing the nexus
of location and work. In line with this development, it is also expected that phones will
contain a lot more computing power in the near future than today and thus do what
computers are doing today. According to Sony Ericson we are talking about a lag of
about 5 years.
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http://www.techopedia.com/2/27831/multimedia/the-most-important-trends-in-gaming
148
http://www.marketresearch.com/Digital-Vector-v2719/Global-Animation-Strategies-Trends-Opportunities6197066/view-stat/
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http://www.digitalartsonline.co.uk/features/motion-graphics/animation-trends-2012-animation-meets-programming/
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Another trend is using phones as both a fixed and mobile device; cellular networks when
outdoors, and fixed networks (short-range radio link) when indoors. It is also expected
that distance and voice-based pricing will decrease. Furthermore, small projectors inside
handsets will allow walls or other surfaces to become displays. On the input side, there
exists technology to beam a ‘virtual keyboard’ onto a flat surface.

Cloud computing
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Cloud computing is also identified as one of the top trends in the years ahead.
Cloud
computing allows users to carry out task remotely by storing data, applications, platforms
and infrastructure in remote data centers. Access is also remote via an internet
connection (hardware and software are not required to be locally present). It is believed
that demand for cloud computing will be driven by business function. One of the potential
consequences is that companies might move away from hiring in-house system
administrators. Moreover, technical skills may also require service industry skills from
entry level positions.

Big data
‘Big Data’ is an umbrella term for the explosion in the quantity and diversity of high
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These data hold the potential—as yet largely untapped—to
frequency digital data.
allow decision makers to track development progress, improve social protection, and
understand where existing policies and programs require adjustment. Turning Big Data—
call logs, mobile-banking transactions, online user-generated content such as blog
posts and tweets, online searches, satellite images, etc.—into actionable
information requires using computational techniques to unveil trends and patterns within
and between these extremely large socioeconomic datasets. New insights gleaned from
such data mining should complement official statistics, survey data, and
information generated by Early Warning Systems, adding depth and nuances on human
behaviours and experiences—and doing so in real time, thereby narrowing both
information and time gaps.
Nanotechnology
“Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which
is about 1 to 100 nanometers. Nanoscience and nanotechnology are the study and
application of extremely small things and can be used across all the other science fields,
such as chemistry, biology, physics, materials science, and engineering. Nanotechnology is
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not just a new field of science and engineering, but a new way of looking at and studying .”
Headlines
Nanotechnology is a very diverse, multidisciplinary cross-cutting concept that covers a wide
range of developments from novel approaches for the development of new materials to
structures with tailor-made unique properties. Nanotechnology is key in many value chains as
it can be used to realize smaller, quicker, more powerful, or more “intelligent” intermediates
and systems components for products with significantly improved or even completely new
functions. Nanotechnology deals with structures sized between approximately 1 and 100
-9
nanometer (10 meters) in at least one dimension, and involve developing materials,
153
structures or devices within that size.
150
Acccenture Technology Vision 2011 and 2012 “Emerging Technology Trends for IT Leaders”
151
Big data for Developmnet: Challenges & Opportunities, 2012, UN Global Pulse
152
http://www.nano.gov/nanotech-101/what/definition
153
HLEG Nanotechnology Report, 2010
51
Nano futures (the nanotechnology industry platform) have identified 5 key nodes areas in
154, 155
nanotechnology.

Design, Modelling and Testing of Materials: this key node deals with methods, tools and
research and innovation actions related to the design, modelling and simulation of nanoenabled materials and products as well as their effective testing (in vitro, in vivo, on site,
analytical techniques etc.).

Nano-Micro Scale Manufacturing: this key node deals with industrial oriented issues
related to the manufacturing of nano-enabled products from prototyping to large scale
and at different scales (from nano-micro to macro).

Safety and Sustainability: this key node relates to all issues related to the sustainability
and safety of nanomaterials and nano-enabled products. This includes suggested actions
on standards & best practice guidelines for handling nanomaterials (nanoparticles,
nanopowders); measurement protocols for nanomaterials; risk assessment and risk
management; environmentally friendly and sustainable nanomaterials production and
processes.

Nanostructures and Composites: this key node includes issues on accuracy, high yield
2D control and of composites and substrates for nanotexturing as well as integration of
source materials for nanostructures and composites.

Nano-Enabled Surfaces: this key node includes issues on development, functionalization
and production of high performance coatings, printed functionalities and sensors. Nanoenabled surface properties such as: low friction, corrosion, anti-fouling, anti-ice, wear
resistance; topography, printed intelligence (roll to roll) are taken into account.
A huge challenge related to nanotechnology is to integrate nanotechnology in end-systems
production as most nanotechnology developments remain at the laboratory stage. One of the
key challenges is to scale up into continuous manufacturing. Nanotechnology is by definition
a technology that requires integrated approaches involving a variety of scientific, technical
and engineering disciplines which requires interdisciplinary skills.
Currently, there are clear financial risks associated with deployment of nanotechnologies and
nanomaterials because of the uncertain regulatory environment and trade implications. This
impedes private investment. A regulatory framework across national and international
jurisdictions needs to be introduced that fosters a common understanding of this complex
field. Member State specific regulatory approaches can develop into significant barriers for
the deployment of nanotechnology.
Links between nanotechnology and other key starting fields
In view of the particular ‘horizontal’ nature of nanotechnology, a number of important links
with other key starting fields is presented below.

The latest innovations in nanotechnology will accelerate the development of information
technology like the next-generation computing and entertainment systems. The key
element in technologies enabling a more intelligent world is the demand for rapidly
growing computational capacity of electronic circuits and the integration of different
features of artificial intelligence into everyday objects. Nanotechnology has an impact on:
1) data processing, 2) data storage, 3) data transportation, 4) data display, and 5) data
collection technologies. For example, new computing systems based on nano-elements
can increase the speed of electronics beyond silicon-based technologies, and reduce the
power consumption significantly. Very low power operation is crucial not only for saving
energy and reducing the heating of circuits with high data processing capability, but also
for allowing for autonomous intelligent devices, either battery operated or capable of
harvesting their own energy.
154
Nanofutures Integrated Research and Industrial Roadmap, 2012
155
European Commission (2008), “Work Programme 2009: Nanosciences, Nanotechnologies, Materials and New
Production Technologies – NMP”, Theme 4
52

In the area of security technologies, nanotechnology enables and improves various
kinds of novel sensors, for example for detection of explosives. Together, the nanoenabled textiles, RFID products, functionalized nanocoatings and nano-enhanced
imaging and non-invasive detection methods will significantly improve security and anticounterfeiting technologies. Advances in sensor technology require tight co-operation
between many different fields of science. For instance sensors for explosives detection
are based on advanced chemistry and nanotechnological innovations, but at the same
time require (wireless) data transportation capabilities enabled by nanoelectronics and
autonomous power supply and storage, of efficient energy harvesting.

Nanostructured and nano-enhanced membranes are used for filtration, which can
effectively remove pollutants, offer desalination potential (important for many increasingly
arid coastal regions) and soften drinking water supplies. Furthermore, nanosorbents
are being developed to remove different contaminants, such as arsenic, from drinking
water sources. Nano-enabled sensors will improve the management of nutrient and water
control of agricultural land thereby increasing productivity and, together with
nanomaterials offering enhanced nutrient uptake, the potential for reduced use of agrichemicals leading to lessened environmental impact.

Nano-encapsulation methods utilizing nano-emulsions or nanoparticle coatings offer the
potential for improving the uptake of the human body to nutrients with processed
food and reduce the sensitivity of nutrients to environmental conditions thus improving
shelf life and reducing need for refrigeration. Product shelf lives can be improved with
‘smart packaging’ making use of nanobiosensors to allow for more effective monitoring of
the food’s condition. Nanotechnologies such as nanobiosensors, nano-enabled
immunoassays, and nano-enabled antimicrobial food packaging will lead to improved
food safety in all aspects of the food chain.

Energy (including energy conversion, efficiency, storage and transportation) is a field in
which nanotechnology will lead to breakthroughs in the efficiencies of solar cells, the
realization of high efficiency fuel cells, improved battery lifetimes and new energy storage
solutions such as super capacitors. Enhanced electrolytes, nano-wires and coatings, and
mesoporous separator membranes have the potential to improve energy efficiency and to
reduce both the environmental impact and oil dependency in the automotive and
transportation industry. Moreover, anti-scratch coatings on lightweight polycarbonate
(PC) glass, nano-structured light metals, nano-steel replacements along with nanostructured spray coatings all help to produce lighter vehicles. In the construction industry,
aerogels, nano-foams, and nano-enabled films & paints all have potential to reduce the
overall energy consumption in buildings.
Biotechnology
“Biotechnology (sometimes shortened to "biotech") is the use of living systems and
organisms to develop or make useful products, or "any technological application that uses
biological systems, living organisms or derivatives thereof, to make or modify products or
156
processes for specific use" (UN Convention on Biological Diversity) ”
Headlines
This definition is closely related to the definition of life sciences. The science of biotechnology
can be divided into several sub-disciplines called red, white, green and blue. Red
biotechnology is concerned with the discovery and development of innovative drugs and
treatments. Green biotechnology is used to modify the genetic composition of plants to
enhance existing traits or add new ones. It can also be applied to treat nutritional
deficiencies. White biotechnology or industrial biotechnology is the application of
biotechnology for the industrial processing and production of chemicals, materials and fuels.
It includes the practice of using micro-organisms or components of micro-organisms like
enzymes to generate industrially useful products, substances and chemical building blocks
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http://www.cbd.int/convention/text/
53
with specific capabilities that conventional petrochemical processes cannot provide. Blue
biotechnology concerns marine and aquatic applications of biotechnology. Bioinformatics is
an interdisciplinary field that deals with computational techniques to biological problems.
The main biotechnology techniques can be summarized as:
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
DNA/RNA: Genomics, pharmacogenomics, gene probes, genetic engineering, DNA/RNA
sequencing/synthesis/amplification, gene expression profiling, and use of antisense
technology.

Proteins and other molecules: Sequencing/synthesis/engineering of proteins and
peptides (including large molecule hormones); improved delivery methods for large
molecule drugs; proteomics, protein isolation and purification, signalling, identification of
cell receptors.

Cell and tissue culture and engineering: Cell/tissue culture, tissue engineering
(including tissue scaffolds and biomedical engineering), cellular fusion, vaccine/immune
stimulants, embryo manipulation.

Process biotechnology techniques: Fermentation using bioreactors, bioprocessing,
bioleaching, biopulping, biobleaching, biodesulphurisation, bioremediation, biofiltration
and phytoremediation.

Gene and RNA vectors: Gene therapy, viral vectors.

Bioinformatics: Construction of databases on genomes, protein sequences; modelling
complex biological processes, including systems biology.

Nanobiotechnology: Applies the tools and processes of nano/microfabrication to build
devices for studying biosystems and applications in drug delivery, diagnostics etc.
Important new developments are situated around epigenetics and interactomics.

Epigenetics deals with the chemical reactions needed to switch parts of the genome off
and on at strategic times and locations. An epigenome basically instructs DNA.
Epigenetics play an important role with respect to nutrition and the potential impact of
food on e.g. newborns. Another important link is the one with the human brain, as many
brain functions are accompanied at the cellular level by changes in gene expression.
Epigenetic mechanisms such as histone modification and DNA methylation stabilize gene
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expression, which is important for long-term storage of information.

Interactomics on the other hand, focuses on the intersection of bioinformatics and biology
and interactions and the consequences of those interactions between and among
proteins, and other molecules within a cell.
In the following paragraphs, a concise overview will be presented of the expected technology
159, 160
developments by application area, up to 2030

Biotechnology applications for plants and animals
Several new types of GM crop varieties that focus on the traits herbicide tolerance and
pest resistance are expected to be available for varieties of barley, sugar beet, peanuts,
peas, potato, rice, and safflower by 2015. Current research on agronomic traits focuses
on improved yield and resistance to stresses such as drought, salinity and high
temperatures. GM varieties of faster-growing tree species and tree varieties with altered
lignin for use in pulp or bioethanol production will be ready for commercialization in the
near future. The largest potential for biotechnology in marine applications is the use of
DNA fingerprinting to manage wild fish stocks and the use of marker assisted selection
and other techniques that do not involve GM to develop improved varieties of fish,
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OECD (2005) - A framework for biotechnology statistics
158
http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/epigenetics/
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The Bioeconomy to 2030, OECD report
160
HLEG Report on Industrial biotechnology
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mollusks and crustaceans for aquaculture. By 2030, animal cloning may be applied to
produce high-value animal breeding stock and compounds such as pharmaceuticals.
Additional progress will be made in applying GM to small market crops and in breeding
programs for major staple crops which may increase levels of essential minerals and
vitamins. Improved varieties of major food and feed crops with higher yield, pest
resistance and stress tolerance may be developed through GM, MAS, intragenics or
cisgenesis.

Biotechnology applications in human health
Biotechnological knowledge is likely to be used in the discovery and development
process for all new pharmaceuticals in the near future. The main biotechnological
products for human health are pharmaceuticals, experimental and emerging therapies
(including cellular, gene, and stem cell research) and diagnostics. The main challenge is
to create and analyse data on individual genomes, validated biomarkers, and treatment
outcomes. Pharmacogenetics might be increasingly used in clinical trials, while improved
safety and efficacy of therapeutic treatments can be reached due to linking
pharmacogenetic data, prescribing data, and long-term health outcomes. Moreover, new
nutraceuticals are expected to be developed in the coming decade.
DNA sequencing of a patient’s genome makes it possible to customize management of
disease. It is expected that by 2020 genome sequencing technology will be developed to
provide diagnosis to conditions that were previously not available. This also poses
enormous challenges regarding the level of data storage, management, analysis and
visualization. Pharmacogenetics will provide insights into how individuals respond to
drugs in order to, as a result, eliminate undesired reactions. Cancer genomics will
facilitate early detection of cancer through identification of DNA mutations. ‘Direct to
consumer’ companies will emerge, offering associated services directly to the
consumer/patient.

Biotechnology applications in industry
A number of new biocatalysts and advanced fermentation processes will be developed
that are faster, less expensive and more versatile than comparable chemical catalysts.
Many processes will rely on specialty enzymes tailored to specific production processes
and environmental conditions. Due to recent advances in industrial biotechnology, it is
now also possible to produce very specific enzymes with particular characteristics, which
opens the way to some innovative and emerging applications e.g. enzyme mixtures are
used in enzymatic contact lens cleaners as they destroy all protein deposits and leave
161
the lenses clean. There is also a lot of research in the area of biofuels, for example, in
the area of high-density biofuels such as alcohols, alkanes (e.g. methane, propane,
octane etc.) and ethers. These biofuels could be produced by microbes and offer major
advantages over ethanol and biodiesel due to their high energy content and low water
solvability.
Biotechnology entails the possibility of offering technological solutions to many of the
health and resource-based problems facing the world. It can improve the supply and
environmental sustainability of food, feed and fibre production, improve water quality,
provide renewable energy, improve the health of animals and people, and help maintain
biodiversity by detecting invasive species. The application of biotechnology to primary
production, health and industry results in an emerging “Bio-economy” that refers to
advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable biomass, and the
162
integration of biotechnology applications across sectors.
Technological opportunities involve improved enzymes and improved micro-organisms
which can produce an increasing number of chemical products in one step, some of
which build on genes identified through bio prospecting.
161
European Biofuels Technology Platform (2010), “Strategic Research Agenda, 2010 Update, Innovation Driving
Sustainable Biofuels”
162
The Bioeconomy to 2030, OECD report
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Photonics
“Photonics is the science of the harnessing of light. Photonics encompasses the generation
of light, the detection of light, the management of light through guidance, manipulation, and
163 164
amplification, and most importantly, its utilisation for the benefit of mankind. , ”
Headlines
The European Commission has identified Photonics as one of the Key Enabling
Technologies. Photonic technologies are used to light up homes, offices and cities; to harvest
renewable energy from the sun; to make telephone calls or surf the Internet; to provide early
medical diagnosis and treatments; to provide clean and efficient manufacture of a multitude
165
of everyday products; or to provide reliable security systems to protect us as we travel.
Optics and photonics technologies are ubiquitous: they are responsible for the displays on
smart phones and computing devices, optical fibre that carries the information in the internet,
advanced precision manufacturing, enhanced defence capabilities, and a plethora of medical
diagnostics tools.

Information and communication technologies
Photonic technologies are at the heart of the ICT infrastructure, which relies heavily on
fibre optic communications. It has the potential to make future networks more
transparent, more dynamic, faster and to consume less energy. For example, as the
physical scaling of transistors comes to an end, new approaches are needed to ensure
continued enhancement in system performance. Photonics is uniquely positioned to
enable innovative distributed architectures of otherwise all electronic systems. Optical
interconnects are, in principle, capable of solving the wiring and IO bottlenecks of CMOS
circuitry. CMOS Photonics enables a new class of low power, low cost, high density
166
solutions.

Lasers
Lasers can be used as a versatile manufacturing tool; cutting and joining, ablation and
deposition, drilling, and marking. Laser systems allow manufacturing of complex, highefficiency 2- and 3-dimensional device architectures. Future high-volume applications
may generate a demand for laser systems to machine high-strength steels, build
lightweight and crash-safe structures to manufacture photovoltaic cells and
semiconductors and miniaturised components for use in medical technology. Lasers can
be customised to make new product shapes and ‘lot size one’ production capabilities.

Imaging and sensors
Screening and medical imaging methods based on photonics will strengthen preventive
medicine and the early detection of diseases. Non-invasive or minimally invasive
treatments (therapeutic laser systems) will help to improve patients’ lifestyle and mobility.
Combining microfluidics with photonics allows making ultra-sensitive ‘lab on a chip’
biosensors. These sensors can measure minute amounts of substances in small sample
volumes and make it possible to assess patients rapidly at bedside. In addition, sensors
can also be used to detect dangerous and illegal goods as light is well suited for
contactless sensing and measurement. Research in this area will focus on diagnostic
tools, on tools for preclinical research, and on the development of autonomous, wireless
sensor networks.
163
The term Photonics was coined in 1967 by Pierre Aigrain, a French scientist
164
http://www.photonics21.org/download/SRA_2010.pdf
165
HLG-Photonics
166
CMOS Photonics 101 (2012),
http://www.ieee802.org/3/100GNGOPTX/public/mar12/plenary/palkert_03b_0312_NG100GOPTX.pdf
56

Lighting and displays
Improvements in lighting and displays can reduce the amount of electricity consumed by
lighting and hence add to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. This opens out
many opportunities for the development of solid-state lighting and for displays for special
applications. Other promising fields of research are emerging photonic materials and
new technologies and functional devices, including nanophotonic devices, allowing the
convergence of photonic and electronic technologies along with photonic integration
technologies. Photonics can help us respond to the challenges we face in health, energy
generation, energy saving and in providing next-generation broadband to the knowledge
society. The opportunities arising from optics and photonics offer the potential for large
societal impact in the next few decades, including solar power generation and new
efficient lighting that could transform the nation's energy landscape and new optical
capabilities that will be essential to support the continued exponential growth of the
Internet.

Green photonics
Green photonics comprises photonics solutions that generate or conserve energy, cut
greenhouse gas emissions, reduce pollution, yield environmentally sustainable outputs
167
or improve public health. Green photonics is a key technology that has the potential to
improve the global balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Green photonics covers a
broad range of optical technologies and applications: photovoltaic energy generation,
highly efficient solid-state lighting (SSL), advanced sensing and instrumentation for
environmental monitoring, new energy-efficient communication technologies and clean
manufacturing using laser processing.
Today, the major highways of communication and information flows are optical. The data
rates of the internet are rising with advances in lasers, optical fibres and optical coding
technologies. Optical high-speed broadband networks are driving the knowledge society,
opening the door to new services and business opportunities. In the future, computers and
telephones will be connected through optical signals, and no longer by network cables.
Moreover, information and communication technology contributes to collecting and
processing data to avoid danger and to enhance safety and security. Safety and security
include all measures to counter collective and individual risks. While ‘security’ relates to
taking preventive measures against physical and intentional attacks, ‘safety’ aims to reduce
possible dangers from the operation of systems and machinery or from environmental
hazards. Sensors and measuring devices play an important role as they enable to detect
dangers at a very early stage for example intelligent driver-assistance systems and night
vision systems in cars.
Advanced manufacturing technologies
“Definition of Advanced Manufacturing: Advanced Manufacturing Systems (AMS) comprise
production systems and associated services, processes, plants and equipment, including
automation, robotics, measurement systems, cognitive information processing, signal
processing and production control by high-speed information and communication
168
systems .”
Headlines
Manufacturing is an indispensable element of the innovation chain: manufacturing enables
technological innovations to be applied in goods and services, which are marketable in the
marketplace and is key to making new products affordable and accessible so as to multiply
169
In addition,
their societal and economic benefits and achieve the desired impacts.
167
Second Strategic research Agenda in Photonics, Lighting the way ahead; Photonics 21
168
High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies (2010), Thematic Report by the Working Team on Advanced
Manufacturing Systems, an initiative of the European Commission
169
EFFRA, Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap
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mechatronics is an interdisciplinary area of engineering that combines mechanical and
170
electrical engineering and computer science.

Advanced manufacturing technologies
Manufacturing is an R&D&I (research, development and innovation) intensive activity.
Advanced manufacturing is a family of activities that (a) depend on the use and coordination
of information, automation, computation, software, sensing, and networking, and/or (b) make
use of cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities enabled by the physical and
biological sciences, for example nanotechnology, chemistry, and biology. It involves both new
ways to manufacture existing products, and the manufacture of new products emerging from
171
new advanced technologies.
The European Commission has identified Advanced Manufacturing Technologies as one of
the six KETs as it comprises production systems and associated services, processes, plants
and equipment, including automation, robotics, measurement systems, cognitive information
processing, signal processing and production control by high-speed information and
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Advanced Manufacturing Technologies involve manufacturing
communication systems.
operations that create high-tech products, use innovative techniques in manufacturing and
invent new processes and technologies for future manufacturing.
Emerging research, development and innovation opportunities have been identified for
advanced manufacturing. The most significant process and service technologies identified
173
included :

additive manufacturing

net shape manufacturing

robotics and automation

customisation

small run technologies (including distributed manufacture and ‘batch size of one’)

micro and nano-manufacturing processes

end of life activities: recycling, re-use, renewing and re-living

surface engineering (finishing and coating processes)

link design and manufacturing more closely

integrating technologies and processes

bioprocessing for new/replacement materials/fuels

ICT and enabling ICT structures

precision manufacturing

human centred manufacturing
Factories of the future require a change in the manufacturing paradigm by introducing new
methods and process technologies within the factory in order to ensure both the required
174
New
quality and sufficiently high productivity to guarantee cost-efficient manufacturing.
machine tools and manufacturing systems will be developed to enable efficient, viable and
170
171
http://www.mcgs.ch/mechatronics_definition.html
President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, Report to the President on Ensuring American
Leadership in Advanced Manufacturing, June 2011, p. ii.
172
HLEG, Report on Advanced Manufacturing
173
TSB, A landscape for the future of high value manufacturing in the UK
174
Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap, EFFRA
58
sustainable manufacturing of future products, complemented by new methods to design and
manage their co-evolution during the lifecycle.
The production and advanced manufacturing industry faces intense and growing competitive
pressure on several fronts. Manufacturing in more mature traditional sectors is increasingly
migrating to low-wage countries such as China and India, while manufacturing in high-tech
sectors endures heavy competition for other developed economies. Moreover, China and
India are also rapidly modernising their production methods and enhancing their
175
technological capabilities.
In an increasingly automated world, advanced manufacturing will rely less on labour-intensive
mechanical processes and more on sophisticated information-technology-intensive
processes. These processes rely on sensors, robots, and condition-based systems to reduce
the need for human interventions, while providing data and information for process oversight
and improvement.
Another trend in advanced manufacturing is digital manufacturing and 3D-printing. This
brings dramatic time and cost savings in the implementation of new production facilities,
through virtual representation of factories, buildings, resources, machine systems, and
equipment. It also permits a closer integration of product and process development through
modelling and simulation.
The ‘virtual factory’ of the future will manufacture in adaptable networks linking medium- and
large-sized OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) with value-chain partners and
suppliers of factory equipment/services selected according to needs at a given time. Its
composition will neither be limited by the presumption of physical co-location, nor by a need
to maintain rigid long-term relationships.

Mechatronics
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Mechatronic systems
not only interface with materials, parts and products, but also cooperate safely with factory workers and communicate with other systems in the factory. They
connect to manufacturing execution and monitoring systems on a higher factory and
management level. Hence, manufacturing systems are becoming smarter in order to
generate high value (quality, productivity) while consuming less energy and generating less
waste. They feature high levels of autonomy and cognitive capabilities, largely inspired by
and making use of robotic technologies. Major developments are expected in the following
technological areas:

Control technologies

Cognition-based intelligent features within machinery and robots

Advanced machine interaction with humans through ubiquity of mobile devices

Monitoring

Intelligent machinery components and architectures
Five trends have been instrumental in the shift from traditional labour-intensive processes to
advanced-technology-based processes. They are: (1) the ubiquitous role of information
technology, (2) the reliance on modelling and simulation in the manufacturing process, (3) the
acceleration of innovation in global supply-chain management, (4) the move towards rapid
changeability of manufacturing in response to customer needs and external impediments,
177
These trends will
and (5) the acceptance and support of sustainable manufacturing.
continue and advanced manufacturing will become increasingly globally linked as automation
and digital supply-chain management will become the norm across enterprise systems. Other
trends that may have a significant impact on future manufacturing operations are converging
technologies and miniaturisation.
175
Manufuture SRA – Executive summary
176
Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap, EFFRA
177
Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing
59
Manufacturing will become increasingly globally linked as automation and digital supply-chain
178
This will be possible through
management become the norm across enterprise systems.
the adoption of adaptive sensor networks to create intelligent feedback that will inform
decision-making and analyses in real-time. There will be a need for secure management of
massive amounts of data generated within the supply chain and manufacturing facility, with
an accompanying need for cyber-security of globally linked enterprise systems. Increasing
demand for flexibility and customisation may lead to the proliferation of additive
manufacturing for customized geometry and integrated computational materials engineering
for customized materials. These trends will allow for local manufacturing that adapts to the
needs of the region as well as the flexibility to produce for a global market.
Health
“Health and health care refers to the prevention, treatment, and management of illness and
the preservation of mental and physical well-being through the services offered by the
medical and allied health professions.”
Headlines
In health care, there will be a transition from remediating (helping the sick) to preventive
types of health care. Early diagnostics, ICT based traceability systems, virtual care and social
networking will play a role herein. Patients will be increasingly treated for conditions they are
likely to get. Point of care testing and so-called patient centred medical homes will come on
the scene. There are strong links with biotechnology, nanotechnology, advanced materials
and ICT (see respective key staring fields) that will make it possible to change how health
care is perceived, organised and provided.
Below, we present a number of technological developments that are expected to shape the
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future of healthcare .

Handling of healthcare data
ICT is considered as one of the main challenges for healthcare, but it simultaneously
entails many opportunities. The average operation rooms contain about 50-100 pieces of
electronic equipment, many of which cannot communicate with each other. Internationally
recognized interoperability standards will emerge, thereby promoting the adoption of
integrated electronic health records. Traceability systems will be able to monitor and
document the activities along the patient’s pathway. As the information per patient is
expected to multiply, decision support systems and software will help healthcare staff to
get access to good practices and as such to provide a ‘second opinion’.

Remote care, shift in point of care
Technological developments will continue to move healthcare delivery setting away from
high-cost hospitals to alternative low-cost environments. Telemedicine will enable
patients to receive healthcare at home. Wireless biomedical sensors (like hemodynamic
sensors surgically positioned to measure blood pressure) and ultra-wideband radar
technology (for monitoring vital body functions) will enable monitoring of patients in their
‘natural’ environment. Smartphone applications will provide new ways of communicating
between patients and healthcare providers and will also be used for monitoring purposes
(smart phone monitoring).
As a result of technological progress, the so-called point of care will move from the
hospital to the patient’s environment. The timeline between the testing and availability of
results will decrease, making early diagnosis possible, together with reduction in
178
Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing
179
European Commission (2009), Special issue on healthcare Healthy ageing and the future of public healthcare
systems, Social Sciences and Humanities
60
healthcare costs (e.g. lab on a chip technology). Traditional laboratory tests and
technologies such as ultrasound, nucleic acid identification (for pathogen testing) and
nuclear magnetic resonance (for cancer cell identification) become portable.

Next generation imaging – at the molecular level
It is expected that medical imaging will move away from visualization of anatomical
footprints to the visualization of the disease processes themselves. Diffuse optical
imaging will emerge as a technique for non-invasive in vivo imaging of biological tissue at
the molecular level. New contrast agents will add molecular information to anatomical
images provided by MRI scans. The combination will provide detailed visualization of
physiology within an anatomical reference, and will make the early identification (and
monitoring) of diseases possible. Again data analysis will be essential in this respect (e.g.
mathematic biology is a fast emerging research area focusing on the prediction of
diseases).

Online social networking
Online social networking will become an important channel for information gathering and
sharing. Patients are sharing experiences (peer-to-peer) and are becoming better
informed. Two-way communication is made possible between patients and healthcare
professionals. The introduction of virtual reality environments, for training and education
purposes, may also benefit the healthcare sector. Development in web technology will
provide strong tools for online information retrieval. Through remote access, patients will
be able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results and share
information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their own health
records. These developments are also referred to as the ‘clinical cloud’.

New medical treatment
The advances in science and technology also influence the development of new medical
devices that may improve disease management and treatment. Important developments
are therapeutic vaccines (e.g. for the treatment of cancer) and nanomedicine (targeted
delivery) that will be used for the targeted treatment of some cancers. Likewise, new
antibiotics are expected to be developed. Surgery will have better spatial guidance tools,
and some surgery will be performed without even breaking the skin by using highintensity ultra sound (MRI guided). Robotics will also be increasingly used, thereby
increasing surgical precision.

Medical devices and implants
New medical devices/implants (e.g. prosthetics of knees, hips or devices that are being
commanded by the human brains, like robotic arms or legs, or even hearing implants that
build-up energy from the temperature in the ear) will continue to emerge. Nanobiotechnology integration increasingly aims to connect devices to humans (e.g.
Parkinson and deep brain stimulation).

Hospitals in 2020
Finally, hospitals are also expected transform. Some examples:

Healthcare professional develop competences in a virtual environment, before being
allowed to treat real patients;

Clinical information is available on whiteboard facilitating an electronic and structured
handover of information between healthcare professionals;

The surgeon follows up the patient after discharging through videoconferencing (online office visits);

The surgeon performs remote robotic surgery;

Patients are accommodated in single rooms with single bathrooms, and vital
functions are monitored wirelessly;

Information about the patient is send to mobile devices of healthcare staff to ensure
information symmetry and optimal communication.
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Water
“Water science and technology is an area that deals with all kinds of scientific and
technological issues related to water (including fresh and sea-waters) and wastewater
management and treatment.”
Headlines
Water is important for all forms of life, and is also a key resource for agriculture and industry.
The European Technology Platform for Water (WssTP) has developed a strategic research
agenda aiming to bring the European water sector in a leading position in terms of expertise
and innovation by 2030. In order to deal with the challenges and trends, the platform has
formulated 6 pilot programs (embracing the whole R&D and innovation chain, including
market introduction). These programs, that reflect the key trends and development faced in
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the area of water and water management, are presented below.

Mitigation of water stress in coastal zones
“Promoting integrated water resources management to increase the coastal zone areas
value chain with the highest concentration of people, coastal zones represent 61 % of the
world’s GDP that is heavily dependent on water related resources. Addressing the
associated pressures is made difficult not only by the variety of water body types but also
by the large number of stakeholders, policies, legislation and conflicting interests.
Forecasts predict further degradation of coastal zones, making it a socially and
economically relevant focus area in need of specific applied science, technology and
policy solutions.”

Sustainable water management in and around urban areas
“Enhancing urban water services through efficient water management. More than 50% of
the world population lives in urban areas. Urban areas, especially large or densely
inhabited ones, raise specific issues with regard to water management. Urban areas
require developments to manage efficiently the water services, safeguarding the public
health while protecting the water resource and the aquatic ecosystems, and reducing the
energy consumption and the carbon emission of the system.”

Sustainable water management and agriculture
“Making the best of innovation for an integrated water management in agriculture.
Agriculture is a significant user of water in Europe, accounting for around 24 % of total
water use. The challenge of sustainable use of water in agriculture focuses on the key
issues of irrigation, water reuse, and nutrient pollution but also water supply and demand
balance.” This issue is also discussed under the field Food and Agriculture.

Sustainable water management for industry
“Promoting a sustainable management of water in all industries. The industrial sector is
of great economic importance, where water related cost can reach up to 25% of the total
production cost. The main challenges are to promote a sustainable use of water in
industries’ processes while ensuring efficient management and possible recovery of other
resources required in the production such as raw materials or energy.”

Rehabilitation of degraded water zones (surface and groundwater)
“Stimulating ecological processes and systems for an environmental water management.
Numerous rivers such as the Guadalquivir, the Tirjo, the Rhine or the Elbe are subject to
water exploitation, and 60% of European groundwater bodies are overexploited. To cope
with the challenges of degraded zones on both ecological and chemical level calls for
development of innovative technologies, among which ecological processes, to solve
complex problems in water management.”
180
The European Water Platform (2010), Strategic Research Agenda, http://www.wsstp.eu
62

Adaptation to hydro-climatic extremes (droughts and floods)
“Managing risks and adapting water management to extreme events. In recent years, the
average estimated cost of droughts in Europe was 6,2 billion Euro/year, with a high of 8,7
billion in 2003. Costs of flooding due to extreme precipitation and run-off amount to
figures in the same order of magnitude. As a consequence of global warming hydroclimatic extremes are anticipated to become more frequent and severe in magnitudes
highlighting the needs for efficient adaptation (including preparedness and emergency
and disaster management) even further.”

Technological implications
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On the technology side, 16 key technology fields have been identified as important for
tackling future water management related challenges. These are presented below.
1. Nutrient regeneration technologies;
2. Domestic sewage heat recovery technologies;
3. New biotechnical process for domestic sewage treatment with anaerobic
technologies;
4. Technologies for the Elimination of Micro contaminations in Waste Water (e.g. drug
residues);
5. Technologies and Processes for Retainment and Elimination of Nano Particles in
Waste Water of Nano Technology Production Processes;
6. New Technical Approaches for Process Water Circulatory Management;
7. Chemical Independent Treatment Processes for the Drinking Water Production;
8. Membrane Development (sustainable resistance to biofilm vegetation, less
susceptible);
9. Technologies for System Supervising, Detection of Pipe Damages, Condition
Evaluation and Redevelopment of Water Grids;
10. Technologies to Treat and Use Various Kinds of Contaminated Rain Water;
11. Technologies to Use Air Humidity;
12. Technologies for the Desalination of Sea and Brackish, Water Using Renewable
Energy;
13. Aquacultures with Simple and Robust Circulatory, Technologies in Modular Process
Plants;
14. Chemical Independent Treatment Technologies for Bulk Water from Ships;
15. Adequate Irrigation Systems based on Intelligent Control Systems (“precision
irrigation”);
16. Technologies for the Improvement of the Water Storage Capacity of Soil.
Higher efficiency levels of current water management are expected to go hand in hand with
new options for additional water supplies. Examples are water desalination (including of
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brackish groundwater), groundwater recharge and discovery, reclamation of wastewater.
These new options appeal in terms of research, development and innovation breakthroughs
(as already mentioned above).
“Food is any substance consumed to provide nutritional support for the body. It is usually of
plant or animal origin, and contains essential nutrients, such as carbohydrates, fats, proteins,
vitamins, or minerals. The substance is ingested by an organism and assimilated by the
organism's cells in an effort to produce energy, maintain life, or stimulate growth. Agriculture
also called farming or husbandry is the cultivation of animals, plants, fungi, and other life
forms for food, fibre, biofuel and other products used to sustain life.”
181
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2009), “Roadmap Environmental Technologies 2020,
Integrated Water Management”, European Foresight Platform, Foresight Brief No. 161
182
Ibid. Fout! Bladwijzer niet gedefinieerd.
63
Headlines
Food consumption and production is by definition a field close to people and society as a
whole. Food is one of the basic needs of humans, and is thus an important field for the future.
The paragraphs below reflect the key developments presented by SCAR (Standing
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and the work
Committee on Agricultural Research) in its most recent foresight exercise,
184
carried out by the European Technology Platform “Food for Life.”
Technological innovation will be essential. Key technologies related to food and agriculture
are biotechnology (GM), nanotechnology, and ICT.

Agriculture
The main expected biotechnology applications in agriculture encompass market assisted
185
In
selection (MAS), genetic modification, propagation, therapeutics and diagnostics.
the short run, the most important application of biotechnology to animal health is likely to
be for diagnostics for genetic conditions and for recombinant vaccines.

Biotechnology (GM)
The fastest uptake of GM technology is currently in soybeans (65% of global cultivation,
expected to rise to 88% by 2015 already). Concerning application of GM in vegetables,
nuts, fruits, olives and wine grapes - market varieties are very few and further growth will
depend on consumer acceptance. Moreover, “omics” (genomics, metabolomics) will not
only be applied in GM, but also in: upgrade of conventional breeding practices, enabling
of cross-breeding strategies through ‘markers’, ecological engineering looking into the
relationship between species and their environment. It is expected that developing
countries will be much more involved in the commercialization of biotechnologies, mainly
for new crop variances.

Nanotechnology
Nanotechnologies are also making their entry into the food sector at a rapid pace.
Nanotechnologies in food have different functions: food packaging improving
functionality; enhancement of taste and the bioavailability of certain ingredients; reducing
the content of elements such as sugar and salt and slowing down microbial activity.
In agriculture, the following applications are expected: sensors and diagnostic devices for
monitoring environmental conditions and plant and animal health; disease and pest
control; water and nutrient control; genetic engineering of plants and livestock to improve
productivity and agriculture as a means to produce nanomaterial.
In food processing and functional food, following applications are expected: quality
control; processing technology and functional foods. Uptake in foodstuffs is still limited as
there are a lot of concerns about related to human safety and environment. There might
also be implications for the labelling of food stuffs.

ICT
ICT is becoming increasingly important for agriculture. Information provision is a key
function (market information prices, weather forecasts, crop and livestock diseases, and
general advice). ICT is however also important in terms of decision support systems in a
drive to maximize production efficiency and minimize costs (digital imagery, GPS).
183
European Commission (2011), “Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world”,
Standing Committee on Agricultural Research
184
European Technology Platform on Food for Life, Strategic Research Agenda 2007-2020, Vision for 2020 and
beyond
185
64
Environment
“Environment is a multi-disciplinary area as it combines various branches of studies like
chemistry, physics, medical science, life science, agriculture, public health, sanitary
engineering etc. It is the science of physical phenomena in the environment. It studies the
sources, reactions, transport, effect and fate of physical a biological species in the air, water
186
and soil and the effects of human activity upon these.”
Headlines
The environment is the sum of all surroundings of a living organism, including natural forces
and other living things which provide conditions for development and growth as well as of
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It consists of a wide range of issues: changes in surroundings,
danger and damage.
climate, nature, quality of life and eco-efficiency. Where environmental conditions influence
people’s lives and are thus of significant interest for them, it is the environment itself that is
nowadays highly depended on people’s behaviour. The consumption society is one of the
188 189
main causes of today’s environmental problems, such as pollution and climate change. ,
Environmental Technologies refer to clean and resource efficient technologies which can
decrease material inputs, reduce energy consumption and emissions, recover valuable by190
products, minimise waste disposal problems or a combination of these:

Environmental technologies in the context of pollution are process and product
technologies that generate low or no waste. They also refer to end of the pipe
technologies for treatment of pollution after it has been generated. Pollution can take
place at several levels namely air, noise, soil and water.

Environmental technologies can also be seen in the context of resource management,
referring to soil conservation technologies, preventing or reducing erosion, compaction
and salinity, maintenance or improvement of fertility and drainage properties, waste
management technologies, and sorting technologies.

Environmental technologies also concern industrial technologies and processes which
are less polluting and less resource-intensive and/or employing energy-saving
technologies through improved production systems (see starting field Energy). The
challenge in the development and application of environmental technologies to the
industrial sector is to streamline environmental measures without losing competitiveness.

Monitoring is an important aspect of environmental technologies. It concerns the
development of new technologies and portals for accepting, sourcing, storing, organising,
filtering and synthesising environmental data (link to the starting field ICT). A recent trend
is the development of cloud-enabled environmental monitoring and catchment modelling
technologies to provide improved web-based access to catchment information and
predictions.
Below we present a selection
191
technologies/applications:
of
emerging
and
promising
environmental

Bioremediation: methods of cleaning up contamination using microbes and plants (e.g.
nitrates in contaminated water with the help of microbes, arsenic from contaminated soil
using plants)

Green Buildings: referring to green design, construction, operation, maintenance,
renovation, demolition etc.
186
Aggarwal, V., (2010), Environmental Studies,
187
http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/environment.html
188
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2012), “21 Issues for the 21st century. Results of the UNEP
Foresight Process on Emerging Environmental Issues”
189
European Environment Agency (2010), “The European Environment. State and Outlook 2010”, Synthesis
190
The environmental goods & services industry, OECD, 1999,
191
http://gelodj.com/lectures/Seminars/Presentation.pdf
65

Hydrogen fuel cell (see also starting field on Energy): believed to be one of the cleanest
sources of energy.

Desalination: cost of fresh water rises strongly; water will be one of the most expensive
commodities in the future because of lack of fresh water.

Making oil from different sources: biodiesel.
Systems research
“Systems research and science is an interdisciplinary field that studies the nature of complex
systems in nature, society, and science itself. It aims to develop interdisciplinary foundations
that are applicable in a variety of areas, such as engineering, biology, medicine, and social
192
sciences.”
Headlines
Systems theory is a theoretical perspective that analyses a phenomenon seen as a whole
and not as simply the sum of elementary part. The focus is on the interactions and
interrelations between the parts in order to understand the overall organization, functioning
and outcomes of the whole. As there is an increasing agreement on the fact that specific
societal challenges can only be solved through a true multi-/interdisciplinary approach,
systems research is becoming increasing important as complexity as such is also increasing.

System thinking in Biology
193
Systems biology is a new approach applied to biomedical and biological research.
It
focuses on the interactions within biological systems using a more holistic perspective.
One of the aims is to model and discover emergent properties, properties of cells, tissues
and organisms functioning as a system (metabolic networks or cell signalling networks).
Methods of systems biology concern genomics/transcriptomics, proteomics, chemical
libraries, metabolomics and data analysis. For example, in relation to food metabolism,
the gut microbiome has been studied with metafenomic tools. Promising trends are
developments whereby genome-scale metabolic models are used in studying interactions
between human hosts and microbes, as well as microbes in isolation and in communities.
Bioinformatics plays an important role in modern systems biology by putting
mathematical and computational sciences as an equal partner to analytical and
194
Furthermore, mathematical and computational models are
experimental biology.
expected to become increasingly prevalent representations of our knowledge about
specific biochemical systems.
In order to make full use of systems biology, a number of challenges need to be tackled.
First, analytical methods need to evolve in order to obtain insights across multi-scale
biology. Second, generation and data collection are resource intensive. More
collaboration is needed in this area.

Systems thinking in ICT
Smart systems are miniaturized devices that incorporate functions of sensing, actuation
and control. Smart (ICT enabled) self-reflecting systems (with Self-detection, selfdiagnostic, self-corrective and self-controlled functions) already know a wide area of
application, and this is even expected to be broadened. For example, by 2020 many
experts think that tech-enhanced homes, appliances, and utilities will be spread, but that
192
Mele, C., J. Pels, F. Polese (2010), “ A brief review of systems theory and their managerial applications”, Services
Science, pp. 126-135
193
Business Research (2011), “The Future of Systems Biology: Emerging Technologies and their Impact on Drug
Discovery, Development and Diagnostics”
194
Likic et al., 2010, Systems Biology: The next frontier for bioinformatics, Advanced Bioinformatics
66
195
at the same time we will still not be living in the ‘house of the future’. Or will we?
Obstacles mentioned in this respect are the costs related to infrastructural changes.
Other potential applications are to be found in energy (smart grids), health care
(sensing), food chain (microbiological checks), traffic etc.
Neuroinformatics is an emerging field of study that uses informatics to bridge the gap
between (1) the large volume of complex or high-dimensional data being generated in
neuroscience labs and (2) the computational models and analysis methods needed to
analyse and interpret these data, with the aim of understanding brain function and
196
malfunction. Integration of data represents a significant challenge to researchers.
This major challenge is the integration of multiple components developed and produced
in very different technologies and materials. This calls for an integrated design and
manufacturing and an interdisciplinary approach and solution.

Systems thinking in family system theory
A totally different field where ‘system thinking’ has proven to be beneficial is family.
Family systems theory has a significant impact on the study of families and on
approaches to working with families. It has guided research into such areas as
understanding traumatic events or chronic health issues and their impact on individuals
and families, substance abuse intervention and treatment modalities, and kinship
networks. Family systems theory will also be challenged to consider cultural and broader
contextual issues that influence families. The integration of family systems theory into the
medical realm, the study of ethnic and cultural differences, and broader systems are
likewise future challenges.
Energy
In physics, energy is an indirectly observed quantity that is often understood as the ability of
a physical system to do work on other physical systems. Since work is defined as a force
acting through a distance (a length of space), energy is always equivalent to the ability to
exert pulls or pushes against the basic forces of nature, along a path of a certain length.
Headlines
Energy covers a whole range of subsectors, related to different technologies/energy sources.
The sector ‘renewable energy’ covers several subsectors like wind (onshore, offshore), sun
(PV: photovoltaic, CSP: concentrated solar power and sun thermic), biomass (biogas,
biomass, waste, biofuel, bio-refinery), heat (heat pumps, geothermic) and hydropower and
197
In addition, there are a number of related segments like energy savings
ocean energy.
(buildings, processes), smart grids, hydrogen & fuel cells, Carbon Capture and Storage
(CCS).

Subsectors in energy
198
One can distinguish several subsectors in energy:
 End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity of buildings, lighting, electric appliances,
motor drives, heat pumps, etc.)
 Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct
heating and cooling applications, as well as for blending with gasoline or diesel oil
 Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP
 CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS)
195
The Future of Smart Systrems (2012), http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Smart-Systems.aspx
196
www.neuroinformatics.nl
197
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Energy Agency (2012), “Energy
Technology Perspectives 2012: Pathways to a Clean Energy System”
198
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/index_en.htm
67


Nuclear energy (generation III and III+)
Advanced transmission and distribution grids and smart metering
Although several of these technologies are known today, substantial industrial research
and demonstration is still needed before deployment can take place on a wide scale.
Multiple technologies can contribute to the advancement of this area. For example,
nanotechnology is expected to have long-term impacts on energy transmission and
199
Nanotechnology has the potential to make transportation fuels more efficient,
use.
potentially reducing the likely increase in demand for long-distance shipment of liquid
fuels. Quantum dot nanocrystal technologies can improve the efficiency of solar energy
systems and are less costly to produce in comparison to crystalline-silicon wafers that
are currently begin used.
Within the renewable energy technologies for heating and cooling, solar thermal (ST) has
specific benefits, as it leads to a direct reduction of primary energy consumption and can
be combined with nearly all kinds of back-up heat sources. Also biomass district heating
is of growing importance in Scandinavia, Austria, and other countries where demand for
heat by the residential /service sector is high. Likewise geothermal energy has a huge
200
potential.

European Strategic Energy Technology Plan
In order to address the challenge of an effective low-carbon policy, efficient energy
technologies and a worldwide climate change, the European Commission has launched
201
the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan). The SET-Plan provides a
framework to accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective low carbon
technologies for 2020. With such comprehensive strategies, the EU is on track to reach
its 2020 goals of a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions, a 20% share of energy from lowcarbon energy sources and 20% reduction in the use of primary energy by improving
energy efficiency by 2020. The SET-Plan includes:











202
The European Industrial Bioenergy Initiative
The European CO 2 Capture, Transport and Storage Initiative
The European Electricity Grid Initiative
The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen (FCH) Joint Technology Initiative
The Sustainable Nuclear Initiative
Energy Efficiency – The Smart Cities Initiative
The Solar Europe Initiative
The European Wind Initiative
The SET-Plan Steering Group (SET-Group)
The European Energy Research Alliance (EERA)
The SET-Plan Information System (SETIS)
In addition, the European Climate Foundation has funded a study to develop a roadmap for
203
The study has two
2050, to offer a practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe.
primary objectives: a) to investigate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving at
least an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 1990 levels by 2050,
while maintaining or improving today’s levels of electricity supply reliability, energy security,
economic growth and prosperity; and b) to derive the implications for the European energy
system over the next 5 to 10 years.
199
Deloitte, energy & resources predictions 2012
200
Common Vision for the Renewable Heating & Cooling sector in Europe
201
http://setis.ec.europa.eu/about-setis/overview
202
European Industrial Bioenergy Initiative (EIBI) (2010), “Boosting the contribution of Bioenergy to the EU climate
and energy ambitions”, Implementation Plan 2010 - 2012
203
http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume1_fullreport_PressPack.pdf
68
“Cognitive neuroscience is the scientific study of the nervous system, which developed as a
branch of biology but quickly became an interdisciplinary science that includes disciplines
such as psychology, computer science, statistics, physics, philosophy, and medicine. As a
result, the scope of cognitive neuroscience has broadened to include different approaches
used to study the molecular, developmental, structural, functional, evolutionary,
204
computational, and medical aspects of the nervous system.”
Headlines
The human brain is the most complex living structure in the known universe. It has a capacity
to store more information than a supercomputer and to create a network of connections that
205
206
far surpasses any social network. Neurosciences are an important branch of research.
More than 1,000 disorders of the brain and nervous system result in more hospitalisations
than any other disease group, including heart disease and cancer. In 2007, the World Health
Organisation estimated that neurological disorders affect up to one billion people worldwide.
In fact, neurological diseases make up 11% of the world’s disease burden, not including
mental health and addiction disorders. The cost of these diseases is high across the globe.
For example, the European Brain Council estimated that neurological diseases in Europe
alone cost one trillion dollars a year in 2010.
In addition, cognitive neurosciences are also involved in researching and developing
207
implantable brain sensors designed to enhance neurological function; and in developments
with regard to brain-computer interfaces. The majority of the latter developments are driven
by clinical applications, to replace or restore lost communication or locomotion abilities in
208
An important aspect to brain
patients suffering from severe neuromuscular disorders.
computer interfaces in the respect for personal ownership.

Neurosciences
Neuroscientists specialize in the study of the brain and the nervous system. The major
goal of neuroscience is to understand how groups of neurons interact to generate
behaviour. Neuroscientists study the actions of molecules, genes, and cells, and also
explore the complex interactions involved in bodily function, decision making, emotion,
learning, and more. They also seek to understand diseases and disorders that occur
when interactions don't happen or go wrong. Knowledge of the human nervous system is
based in part on on-going fundamental discoveries in animals (e.g., worms, flies, fish,
frogs, mice, and primates), aided by computer simulations.
New technologies to confront neural circuits fall into two categories: ways to observe and
perturb the millisecond-timescale dynamics, and ways to observe and engineer wiring
209
Optogenetic technologies offer much potential for fixing the neural
and structure.
circuit changes associated with intractable brain disorders. Over a billion people suffer
from a brain disorder and many cannot be treated, and most of the treatments that do
exist are partial and have side effects. Therefore, one appealing idea regarding
optogenetics is that one could activate or silence exactly the set of cells that would repair
a brain disorder, leaving nearby cells unaffected.
210
First,
Several challenges can be identified for neurological disorders.
neurodegenerative disorders have the challenge of slow progression and therefore long
and expensive clinical trials. Depression has the challenge of poor mechanistic
204
http://sbs.arizona.edu/support/undergraduate/
205
http://www.brainfacts.org/about-neuroscience/what-is-neuroscience/
206
http://www.psychologycareercenter.org/cognitive-neuroscientist.html
207
208
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3365813/
209
Trends in Neurosciences, interview with Edward S. Boyden
210
Trends in Neurosciences, interview with Michael D. Ehlers
69
understanding and clinical studies with placebo rates that can be 30-40%. Schizophrenia
and autism have an emerging genetics, but this is highly heterogeneous. Moreover,
neuroscience has to make significant progress in the use of precision medicine and more
selective genetic/genomic and biomarker-based disease definition.

Challenges for neuroscience research
Three key challenges for neuroscience research can be identified:




Map the connectivity of the nervous system: a more complete understanding of
neural circuitry would enable further progress on remaining questions in many
areas of neuroscience research, such as how and where information is stored in
the nervous system and how activity in neural circuits generates behaviour and
cognitive functions. In addition, a connectivity map may help explain and guide
treatment development for disorders of the nervous system that may be viewed
as "connectopathies," with abnormal circuit structure or activity.
Develop a safe, effective treatment for one or more neurodegenerative disorders:
Neurodegeneration and neuronal cell death occur in a range of neurological
disorders, whether chronically as during the course of progressive degenerative
diseases, or more acutely as in the aftermath of injury or stroke.
Develop biomarkers for predicting and monitoring disease progression and
treatment outcomes: There is a need for better biomarkers for predicting,
diagnosing, and monitoring disease, and to serve as targets of biologic efficacy
in clinical trials.
Cognitive sciences
Cognitive Science, closely related to neurosciences, is the interdisciplinary study of how
information is represented and transformed in the human brain. It consists of multiple
research disciplines, including psychology, artificial intelligence, philosophy,
neuroscience, learning sciences, linguistics, anthropology, sociology, and education. It
spans many levels of analysis, from low-level learning and decision mechanisms to high211
level logic and planning; from neural circuitry to modular brain organisation.
Paul Thagard identified four major trends in current cognitive science:



212
The first trend is that cognitive neuroscience is becoming increasingly central to all
branches of psychology. Brain scanning technology is continuing to improve, with
more powerful fMRI machines and other technologies such as transcranial magnetic
simulation and near-infrared spectroscopy providing new experimental findings about
how brains produce thoughts. Theoretical neuroscience is generating new views of
the nature of representation and computation that can even be applied to difficult
questions concerning emotions, consciousness, and creativity. Progress in cognitive
neuroscience also has important implications for traditional philosophical issues such
as the mind-body problem, free will, and even the meaning of life.
A second important trend in cognitive science has been the increasing prominence of
statistical models based on Bayesian probability theory. These models have been
applied to many important phenomena in cognitive psychology and also have had
impressive applications in robotics such as the operation of autonomous vehicles.
The third important trend that deserves more attention is increasing emphasis on
embodiment. In philosophy, this concern has erroneously led to claims that the
important mental roles of the body and the world require rejection of the
computational-representational understanding of mind. In psychology, however,
there has been a more reasonable recognition that aspects of thinking such as
images and emotions require expansion and modification of traditional ideas about
representation and computation. Appreciation of the role of embodiment in cognition
is enhanced by the first trend I mentioned: advances in cognitive neuroscience (both
experimental and theoretical) are revealing how the brain uses information gathered
from the senses and interaction with the world to perform complex tasks.
211
212
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hot-thought/201112/what-s-new-in-cognitive-science
70


The fourth important trend in cognitive science today is greater appreciation of the
social dimensions of cognition, which may seem go in the opposite direction from the
biological trend of cognitive neuroscience but is actually compatible with it.
Psychology and anthropology have increasingly shown ways in which human
thinking is affected by the interactions that people have with others in the culture they
share. These interactions depend on biological mechanisms such as the generation
and transmission of emotions, but social changes also produce biological changes.
Cognitive science needs to be able to integrate increased understanding of the social
context of thinking with understanding of neural mechanisms.
Challenges for cognitive science research
213
Four future challenges for cognitive research have been identified:
 The first great challenge for cognitive science is to include the interaction
between the human being and its environment.
 The second challenge is to aim to go beyond means and understand not only
how variability in performance differs within and across individuals, but also
across the lifespan. This will most likely involve employing statistical methods
that are used in related disciplines or even developing new methods.
 The third challenge is to work more collaboratively within and across cognitive
topics with the aim of moving toward an interdisciplinary science that is also
integrative.
 The fourth and greatest challenge for cognitive science is to keep the science of
the mind moving forward and breaking new frontiers, without revisiting past
knowledge.
Knowledge Intensive Business Services
“Knowledge Intensive Business Services (commonly known as KIBS) are services and
business operations heavily reliant on professional knowledge. They are mainly concerned
with providing knowledge-intensive support for the business processes of other
organizations. As a result, their employment structures are heavily weighted towards
scientists, engineers, and other experts. It is common to distinguish between T-KIBS, (those
with high use of scientific and technological knowledge - R&D services, engineering services,
computer services, etc.), .), and P-KIBS, who are more traditional professional services legal, accountancy, and many management consultancy and marketing services. These
services either supply products which are themselves primary sources of information and
knowledge, or use their specialist knowledge to produce services which facilitate their clients
own activities. Consequently, KIBS usually have other businesses as their main clients,
though the public sector and sometimes voluntary organisations can be important customers,
and to some extent households will feature as consumers of, for instance, legal and
214
accountancy services”.
Headlines
The Services sector or industry (also known as tertiary sector) consists of the “softer” parts of
the economy. People offer their knowledge and time to improve productivity, performance,
potential and sustainability. The services sector is everywhere around us and represents an
important part of our socio-economic reality. Over the last years this sector has been growing
strongly as a result of the “increasing participation of knowledge in most economic production
processes”. This is particularly true for the so-called Knowledge Intensive Business Services
that are more manufacturing and service business related.
213
214
http://www.frontiersin.org/Cognitive_Science/10.3389/fpsyg.2010.00007/full
Miles, I., Kastrinos, N., Bilderbeek, R. and den Hertog, P. (1995) "Knowledge-Intensive Business Services:
Users, Carriers and Sources of Innovation", EIMS Publication
71
Nowadays a distinction is made between general service sectors and the more knowledge
intensive service sectors that are becoming increasingly important. The latter includes many
215
such as computer and management consulting, diverse
forms of professional services
types of specialist functions such as marketing and advertising, staff recruitment, and trade
promotion or distribution logistics, as well as telecommunications, air transport, financial
activities, and educational services.
Innovation intensity in Knowledge Intensive Business Services is high, regardless the fact
that intellectual property protection is challenging. New technological solutions have helped
to introduce new services over distances helping firms active in this sector to enlarge their
geographical range. The future of Knowledge Intensive Business Services will be driven by
social factors and influences from general economic and political level, next to technological
developments.



215
216
217
216
Technological challenges/opportunities
 Industrialization of services: referring to the standardisation of work procedures and
the production of standardised services, leading to a form of standardisation of the
services itself.
 ICT, technology and R&D: ICT is considered to be the major driver within the
Knowledge Intensive Business Services. ICT provides new possibilities for services
delivery, increases the traceability of services, and helps to increase the global
nature of this business.
 Globalisation: through liberalisation and deregulation, new opportunities have and
are still arising. Growing shares of outsourcing between countries and regions can be
observed.
 Demography and increasing knowledge-intensity in the economy: ageing is without
any doubt one of the major triggers for the creation of new services niches. With the
differentiation of society and its needs, new niches occur.
 Local character: despite the global opportunities, Knowledge Intensive Business
Services remain largely a local phenomenon due to differences in culture and
language between countries, geographical distances.
Possible future innovations in Knowledge Intensive Business
217
Services
 Increasing computing capabilities as well as advances in describing and analysing
natural and social systems will provide new technological opportunities for computer
simulations in all types of Knowledge Intensive Business Services. Services based
on these simulations will, for example, provide new ways of virtual testing.
 The use of the Internet offers a growing range of new possibilities for services with
high information input. By using new information, communication, and related
technologies, Knowledge Intensive Business Services enhance productivity in the
whole economy by improving their own productivity figures. In particular, taking
advantage of ICT plays an important role as a converter or broker of technological
information (spill overs to other parts of the economy).
 Convergence, suggesting that service activities and service products which have
their origins in two or more different Knowledge Intensive Business Services
industries are becoming increasingly entangled; this may promote service innovation.
Trends in the customer service market
 The customer service market is shaped by the needs and behaviours of both
customers and businesses. As the demands change, the customer service market
will change as well. In general, customers will have more control of the customer
service experience whereby personalization plays an important role. Customer
support will also have to be provided continuously. Below we outline several
important trends and developments that will shape the future services markets:
INNOVA (2011), “Sectoral Innovation Watch – Knowledge Intensive Services Sector”, Consortium Europe
INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch, study commissioned by the European Commission
Ibid. 215
Op cit. INNOVA, 2011
72





Social Media for Customer Service Continues
Customer service will find its way into any communications channel adopted by
consumers, and social media will not be different. Organizations could view
social media as one channel of their overall customer service. Sound customer
service processes are, however, still required.
More Power to the Customer
With the growth of communications channels such as forums and social media,
poor customer experiences can be communicated to the world in seconds. The
customer increasingly controls the kind of service they would like to receive
either by switching organizations, or communicating it through social channels.
Customer-To-Customer Support
The customer community itself is often one of the best support channels an
organization could have. Its power is due to the sheer numbers of support
personnel (customers) it has. Collaborative community customer support can be
a great ‘partner’ in overall service provision.
Self-Service Adoption Continues to Grow
Businesses like self-service because it is cost-effective and continuously
available. Customers like self-service because they can find what they are
looking for without delay.
Out-sourcing is Out, In-sourcing is In.
Increasingly, companies realize that customer support is too important to be
outsourced and will increasingly be transferring this function back home. It is
considered a key strategic function in the relationship with the customer.
Security
“Security is the degree of protection to safeguard a nation, union of nations, persons or
218
person against danger, damage or loss.”
Headlines
Security is a broad concept, touching on numerous global societal challenges and
developments; security has to be safeguarded by nations and governments; it has many
dimensions and can be considered on several levels. Besides the clearly political dimension,
there is also a societal and even strong technological dimension that needs to be addressed.
219
Without security there is no
There is a clear nexus between security and development.
economic development and progress. There is a greater need for improved international
cooperation and coordination, and the development of new forms of private-public
partnerships.
Security is, at the same time, an economic sector. The security industry is one of the sectors
with the highest potential for growth and employment in the EU. The European Commission
has made the security industry one of the essential parts of the EU 2020 flagship initiative on
220
industrial policy. It is a priority for the Commission to establish a better functioning internal
market for security technologies. Problems faced by the EU security industry are 1)
fragmentation of the market, 2) the gap between research and the market, 3) societal
dimension of security technologies (affecting private and family life, data protection issues,
and privacy or human dignity).
218
http://computercontrolsecurity.com/why-security-is-important/
219
Schreier, F. (2011), “Trends and challenges in international security – an inventory”, Occasional paper 19,
Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
220
European Commission (2012), “COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE, Security
Industrial Policy, Action Plan for an innovative and competitive, COM(2012)417 final
73

Potential threats posed by emerging technologies
Technologies provide tremendous societal and economic opportunities, but when used
221
with wrong intensions they may also be a source of safety risks. The FESTOS project
identified three categories of potential threats. The first is a disruption of certain
technological applications for malicious purposes; the second is the increased availability
of technologies that once were confined to the military only; third, concerns the surprising
malicious uses of technologies developed for completely different “civil” purposes.
Based on the potential of a technology for malicious use, the following ten technologies
have been identified:
 Smart mobile phone mash-ups
 Internet of Things (IoT)
 Cloud Computing
 New gene transfer technologies
 Advanced artificial intelligence
 Synthetic biology
 Cyborg insects
 Energetic nanomaterials
 Radio-frequency identification (RFID)
 Autonomous & semi-autonomous mini robots
For the time scale 2015 – 2020, the following potential "wild card technologies" (severe
threats but low likelihood of abuse) have been identified: Swarm robotics, brain implants,
water catalysing explosive reactions, future fuels, self-replicating nano-assemblers,
medical nano-robots, ultra-dense data storage, meta-materials with negative light
refraction index, and synthetic biology. In order to prevent the abuse of emerging
technologies, the authors refer to:
 Education curricula including programs aiming to raise the awareness of potential
threats.
 Measures invented by the knowledge producer.
 Measures developed by media to limit the publication of sensitive knowledge.

Illustration of technological developments: physical security
The overarching change in physical security is a shift from analog to IP (Internet
Protocol) systems and networks. This movement has major implications for equipment
222
purchases, processes, staffing, and training. A number of trends are noted bellow:
 The replacement of analog by IP is taking place rapidly. One of the advantages is
that data traffic can be given priority over other types of data traffic (essential in the
event of disasters).
 Surveillance video becomes life-like. New high-definition (HD) video surveillance
cameras provide high resolutions making it easier to identify people with high levels
of confidence, read license plates, use video analytics etc.
 Video analytics software becomes more mature. After identifying an event of interest,
the software can automatically alert a human operator, and perhaps send the video
clip along with the alert.
 Building control go IP. Organizations will integrate their IP-based video surveillance
and building control systems, to improve incident detection and assessment. An
attempt to use an access card, for example, can trigger the video surveillance
camera to capture the event, and either send an alarm or archive the video for
forensics purposes.
221
See: http://www.festos.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10&Itemid=9; The FESTOS project
(Foresight of Evolving Security Threats posed by Emerging Technologies) identified and assessed evolving
security threats caused by the abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies and emerging areas of
applied research (towards 2035).
222
Collen, S. (2007), Director of Business Development for Cisco’s Physical Security Business Unit
(http://www.cisco.com/)
74



Radio interoperability grows into communications interoperability. People who are out
of radio range need to be able to join talk groups with traditional phones, IP phones,
mobile phones, or laptops. And they also want to share video, floor plans, database
access, and each other’s desktops. The trend is towards comprehensive
communications interoperability.
The demise of standalone systems. More integrated solutions are demanded.
Vendors are establishing partnerships to ensure that their solutions interoperate.
Challenges lie outside the EU
223 224
The work of FOCUS , aims to elaborate a number of foresight generated scenarios
in the form of alternative tracks of security research topics, approaches and structures.
The challenges dealt with lie outside the territory of the Union. FOCUS has identified so
far seven cross-thematic key drivers for future challenges to the EU.
 Globalization and international system change
 Changing modes of governance
 Changing values and norms
 Economic and social change
 Technological change
 Extent of common threat assessment
 Consistency and coherence of future security
Mobility and transport
“Transport or transportation covers the movement of people, animals and goods from one
location to another. Modes of transport include air, rail, road, water, cable, pipeline, and
225
space. The field can be divided into infrastructure, vehicles, and operations.”
Headlines
Mobility and transport are fundamental to both economy (transport sector accounts for about
7% of GDP and for over 5% of total employment in Europe) and society. We all have become
more mobile, and as a result of changing consumer patterns, transport of goods and services
has also become global in nature. This all has been facilitated by low fuel prices and
improved infrastructures.
Recently, under the auspice of the European Foresight Platform, a European policy
workshop on Smart Mobility 2050 took place in Brussels. The European Commission has put
forward a new strategy to address the main challenges faced aiming to create a so-called
Single European Transport Area. The Commission proposes 40 concrete initiatives aiming to
build a competitive transport system that will increase mobility, to remove major barriers in
key areas and fuel growth and employment. At the same time, the initiatives aim to
dramatically reduce Europe's dependence on imported oil and cut carbon emissions in
transport by 60% by 2050.

Technologies and services
Technological innovation will be a major contributor to solving transport challenges. ‘Soft
infrastructures’ are, in this respect, quite important. Examples include Intelligent
Transport Systems for road (ITS); and traffic management systems for rail (ERTMS) and
aviation (the single European sky SESAR), backed by Galileo can optimize the use of the
network and improve safety. At the same time, innovative vehicle technology can lower
223
Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, project
funded under FP7, http://www.focusproject.eu/
224
European Foresight Platform (2012), “Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive
Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”, EFP brief No. 214
225
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport
75
emissions. ITS applications for road transport include electronic tolling, dynamic traffic
management with variable speed limits, parking guidance and reservation, navigation
devices and driver-assistance systems like electronic stability control and lane departure
warning systems.
In the following section below, the main elements of the scenarios developed by the Focus
Groups (three groups gathering the views of transport experts and discussing the drivers of
transport activity in the fields of the economy and society, technology and the environment,
226
an initiative taken by the
and infrastructure and logistics) on the ‘Future of Transport,’
European Commission, are presented.

Intra-urban transport
As urban congestion will be increasing, transport would suffer from the so-called ‘last
mile’ problem (namely, the difficulty in reproducing the advantages for short distances
that the consolidation of large volumes or transport can achieve over long distances).
Cities will not be able to accommodate much larger volumes of private cars as
infrastructures will be limited. Radical ways of dealing with congestion will be required.
Development of ICT would provide universal and easy access to information and widespread electronic ticketing. Around 2030, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles might become a
viable alternative if and when the right distribution infrastructure is in place.

Interurban freight transport
The logistics sector would be creating more flexible, but complex networks using
advanced logistics concepts such as hybrid supply chains, collaborative networks
(wherein different producers are cooperating in transport in order to achieve economies
of scale); e-logistics (both business-to-consumers and business-to-business) and return
logistics. These more complex logistics products would be necessary to deal with
increased individualized market demand and quicker passing of new fashions. This
would have an effect on light vehicle growth figures (vans) as well. For ships, energy
intensities would be reduced up to 30% by 2050 through more efficient engine and
propulsion systems and ship design. The emergence of a European network of rail freight
corridors through cross-border cooperation and increased competition in the railway
markets would facilitate enlarging the share of rail in freight transport. A hub and
spoke system wherein major production/consumption areas are linked to each other in
Europe would help. Trucks, ships and aircrafts would increasingly rely on alternative fuels
whose production would start to affect the price of oil after the introduction of the second
generation biofuels. The shift away from fossil fuels would be encouraged through
stringent environmental regulation, most likely reflecting the external costs of
transportation, and concerns about the security of supply of fossil fuels.

Interurban passenger transport
Long distance passenger travel would increase as a consequence of globalization,
tourism, regional integration and migration. The latter will increase labour and business
related mobility, and the connected social mobility (families, friends). Large
intercontinental airports (hubs) might reach high congestion levels due to further
globalization. Smaller regional airports may present spare capacities and become more
integrated. Demands for higher comfort and a suitable handling of luggage would also
increase. High speed rail would be able to move even faster than today and could
provide a significant share of journeys for distances up to 700-800 km.
226
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/strategies/2009_future_of_transport_en.htm
76
7. IDENTIFIED TRANSITION AREAS
Introduction
In this chapter we will present the identified transition areas. The steps followed in order to
identify and define these areas, were the following:
1) First drafting on the basis of the insights of the study team and the identified areas in
the German BMBF foresight study.
227
The following transformative breakthroughs have been identified in that study:
 Energy transition (energy generation, storage, distribution, understanding
and modelling human behaviour, service innovation).
 Bio-resource
management
(agricultural
technologies,
industrial
biotechnology, understanding and modelling human behaviour).
 Sustainable patterns of production and consumption (production
technologies and concepts, systems thinking, understanding and modelling
human behaviour, services innovation, green housing etc.).
 Human-technology continuum (lab-on-a-chip/bio-electronics, performance
enhancers,
brain
modelling,
brain-computer
interface,
secure
communication, trust, assistive systems etc.).
 Infrastructure transition (transport technologies, smart grids, service
innovation, next generation networks).
 Living spaces (sustainable construction materials, green/smart housing,
service innovation, human behaviour, agricultural technologies).
2) Further refinement on the naming and definition of the transition areas during the
round of interviews with the national and international experts.
3) Detailed discussion of the content of each transition area during the one-day
foresight camp held in Brussels in November 2012.
The six groups of societal challenges and the developments under the key starting
fields (as presented in the previous chapters) offered a starting point for these
experts to organize their thoughts about linking science, technology and innovation
solutions to societal challenges. The purpose of this exercise, as was clearly
communicated to the experts, has been to identify promising links between potential
solutions and societal challenges. The purpose is not to be exhaustive but to provide
a solid starting point for the next phases of the project cycle.
4) Discussion and further validation during the meetings with the steering committee
of the VRWI.
For each key transition area, several nodes have been identified. The identification of the
nodes is based on the literature review, the expert consultation and the foresight camp. The
presented discussion in the nodes is not exhaustive, but covers the main elements identified
during the literature review, the expert consultation and the foresight camp. The goal of this
section is to provide a starting point for discussions and refinements in subsequent phases of
the foresight process by multidisciplinary experts. The content comprised in the 5 key
transition areas is mainly based upon experts’ views, added by some literature insights and
web searches. Therefore, only limited references are included in this chapter.
227
(IAO) (2009), “New Future Fields”
77
Transition areas
The objective of this VRWI forward looking exercise is to identify and define new transition
areas that can make a real difference in addressing society’s needs in Flanders and abroad.
This requires a good and broad understanding of societal challenges and potential solutions
stemming from Science, Technology and Innovation, including the social sciences and
humanities (SSH). Alongside a ‘problem-driven’ approach (i.e. looking for answers to
existing societal challenges), however, an ‘opportunity-driven’ approach should also be
considered. There are plenty of opportunities that can be addressed separately and not
necessarily from a problem-driven logic; i.e. the starting point does not necessarily need to
be an identified problem, but could equally well be an identified opportunity.
The identified links between societal challenges and possible solutions are grouped into
areas, which are called ‘transition areas’ (or transformative priorities, based on the
terminology introduced by Warnke and the foresight process carried out by the German
BMBF) as they encompass a strong transition potential on the longer run. Transition areas
aim to arrive at broad solutions stemming from different disciplines and areas. They reflect a
systemic perspective, and clearly illustrate the need to collaborate across disciplines, sectors,
organizations and even policy domains without neglecting the need for maintaining and
further developing domain/discipline specific excellence.
During exploratory interviews with leading experts, the transition areas and their content have
been extensively discussed. Together with the foresight camp meeting held in Brussels in
November 2012, this has led to the identification of the following five key transition areas (see
also figure below):

T1. Society 2.0

T2. Life enhancement
o
T2.1. Food and agricultural part
o
T2.2. Health part

T3. Smart resources management

T4. Urban planning and mobility dynamics

T5. New energy demand and delivery
78
Source: IDEA Consult
It is important to note that the identified transition areas are not described exhaustively.
Key nodes within these transition areas (see below) have been identified and are broadly
discussed in order to provide a good basis for further refinement during the subsequent
phases of the VRWI foresight process in which societal, business and STI experts will be
involved extensively.
T1: Society 2.0
A transversal perspective
A different/changing model of society can be considered as a kind of condition for a
successful transition in the other four areas. Addressing the societal challenges within these
transition areas often requires a societal change as well. A good example is changing
228
patterns of consumption, which requires a broad behavioural change by society at large.
In this respect the transition area Society 2.0 is horizontal/transversal in nature that touches
upon the other transition areas. On the other hand, there are also important societal aspects
within society such as poverty, social deconstruction, etc. that deserve a ‘stand-alone’
consideration and will require innovative policy models provided by the Social Sciences and
the Humanities. Good examples are pluralism, multiculturalism and diversity, and their effects
on education, or social isolation and loneliness, which can be related to the increasing
individualisation of society. The relevant topics are numerous. Societal transition is thus a
‘means’ towards, but also an ‘end’.
228
European Commission (2009), “Sustainable consumption and production - a challenge for us all”, EMAS
Newsletter Issue 2
79
Scope and relevancy
In line with the optimistic view in this preparatory study (inventory of trends and
developments), much evidence has been collected that the society of the future will (have to)
go along with different (not necessarily better) norms, values and attitudes towards daily life
(e.g. work-life balance, family structures, employment characteristics), but also regarding
229
resource utilization, consumption, ageing, globalisation, poverty, the role of technology ,
privacy issues etc. Some societal challenges such as migration and diversity/pluralism for
230
Attitudinal changes
example, are issues of concern, but also provide great opportunities.
seem important as human behaviour drives the future of our planet, and thus the future of
next generations. State-of-the-Art interdisciplinary research from the Social Sciences and
Humanities (SSH) directed to these societal challenges will be very helpful and will provide
new, innovative models to tackle societal issues.
At the same time society cannot be easily changed; society is abstract and large, and there
are many vested interests. Change is also not one of the main characteristics of human
nature; there is a natural tendency to avoid it. A new or changed society, however, does not
need to be in conflict with the old societal paradigm; it will only be different. As change
occurs, people take up the new, making the old increasingly dysfunctional and obsolete. This
is a long term process, which could be considered a transition in itself (therefore Society 2.0
is also presented as a separate transversal transition area depicted in the diamond in the
figure above).
A new or changed society could have the following characteristics or ‘operating systems’







231
:
A different type of economic system – a mutual support system that is resource
based and not only money based.
A different energy system that provides unlimited power on demand, is portable,
accessible everywhere, inexhaustible, non-polluting and available to everyone.
A different transportation system based on the new energy that everyone can use.
A different health system that creates excellent health rather than eradicating
disease.
A different agricultural system that works with nature, producing healthier, tastier
foods at lower cost.
A different educational system that promotes the student’s innate abilities and
passions.
A different communication system that everyone can access.
The new ‘operating systems’ of the changed society, Society 2.0, interact with all the other
transition areas presented in this chapter, but go even beyond them in different ‘stand-alone’
nodes, as discussed below.
Societal change is driven by, among other things, climate and ecological changes and the
need to anticipate and react to globalisation, increasing interconnectedness (through e.g.
social networks), new geopolitical relationships (power balance, new upcoming powers), and
demographic and social changes (which may lead to pension affordability problems, social
isolation/cohesion, solidarity between generations etc.), as discussed above. Visions of a
changing society should also address ways to safeguard current level of welfare in Europe
232
and the current standard of living. A changing society may be a result, in view of all the
pressures and calls for changes, and social sciences and humanities may help to better
understand certain processes, but also provide solutions to major societal challenges and
social phenomena.
229
Cost Office (2011), “A new society in the making: A COST interdisciplinary strategic initiative in the wake of the
digital revolution”, COST foresight 2030
230
Van der Erf, R., De Beer, J.A.A. & Van der Gaag,, N.L. (2011), “Europese regio’s groeien vooral door migratie. In:
Demos, 27 (3), 2-3
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World Harmony Forum; a network is made up of individuals, groups and organisations who are working towards
establishing an exciting, positive, parallel new society that lives and works in harmony with nature.
232
Humanities
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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’
We present below the most important ‘stand-alone’ nodes that have been identified under
Society 2.0, and those that are, in most cases, only indirectly related to the subsequent
transition areas such as life enhancement and smart resources management. Relevant
research disciplines, without aiming to be exhaustive, include sociology, economy, labour
and organisation psychology, philosophy.
The nodes presented below should be read in conjunction with the inventory of societal
challenges presented in chapter 4. An overall overview of the nodes is presented in the figure
below.
Economy, workforce, and forms of innovation
 The knowledge economy has long been considered as the foundation of a strong and
developing society. In recent years, however, partly because of the economic crisis and
new developing eastern powers, Western economic strength in the form of fundamental
and research based knowledge has start to show the first cracks. New paths towards
economic development should therefore be analysed and investigated by exploring
new economic growth models and taking full advantage of available expertise and
knowledge (e.g. with respect to creative subjects like design, architecture, design etc.).
Hence, economic research in providing important solutions in this respect.
 The Western economic model is changing and new labour patterns are developing. In
view of these changes it seems that the competitive advantages of strategically
developed production processes are being re-evaluated and re-established together
with the development of the knowledge economy. It is in this line of thinking where new
production models (cf. factory of the future) become important.
 Labour patterns are changing and the required labour capacity is changing with it
(hence the importance of labour and organisational research). Not only will there be a
need for different job profiles, because of the new growing importance of the reestablishment of production, for example, but also because local workers will be forced
to consider new and less attractive professions, because of the increasing labour
migrations and the growing competition with new and often cheaper knowledge import.
Therefor there is an urgent need for the creation of new respect for all forms of
labour, and this especially towards the workers on the lower steps of the labour ladder.
At the same time, sufficient jobs and local economic value added need to be
created in order to solve societal challenges and problems.
 In order to create new economic growth stimulated by innovation, innovation itself needs
to be broadened to other areas of the economy. More attention could be paid to social
and public sector innovation, and even innovation in the services sectors. Creativity
could be combined and integrated with classical innovation processes more than
before. Social innovation will be a new and important way to extend and strengthen
civil society. Social innovation refers to new strategies, concepts, ideas and
organizations that meet social needs of all kinds from working conditions and education
to community development and health.
Social dynamics
 The age pyramid is changing rapidly (see also chapter on societal challenges). This
means that the dependency rate of social groups is changing as well. A smaller base of
younger generations will need to provide for larger groups of elderly people. This, in
combination with higher life expectancies, calls for new social structures to avoid a major
group of the elderly generation becoming financially and socially isolated, and the
pressure on the younger generation becoming too weighty. Solutions include the
development of new, flexible labour models for the elderly to re-integrate in the labour
market and help support the social system. Sociology and psychology may contribute to
81
a better understanding of these social processes and help to identify ways to influence
them.
 Individualisation is a major trend within todays’ society. The integration of
individualisation in the educational and labour system is seen as an opportunity to
increase the quality of educational pathways for school children and students and the
subsequent career development for graduates (research and pedagogical sciences is
thus important). This means that attention should be paid to the development of
individual talents, the identification individual needs and the adaptation of existing
structures and systems. Moreover, new ways of information aggregation and knowledge
sharing as a new social leverage have to be examined. Here as well, different research
disciplines could contribute to finding solutions - examples being sociology and
psychology.
 On the other hand, individualisation as seen from another, social perspective, can lead
to social isolation. Evolutions and trends described earlier, such as individualisation of
the health system, the rapidly developing digital network, and changing social values,
can all lead to the exclusion of those who cannot fall back on a strong social safety net.
A balance must therefore be sought between increasing individualization and social
isolation on one hand and the means to counter this development on the other hand.
This could include the revaluation of the traditional safety nets such as ‘the family’
and associational life, or new models of living together and new community
structures. Several technological solutions are also worth consideration here as well
(see below).
 Poverty is a problem in all social structures. A major driver of poverty is described as
the poverty trap. A poverty trap is the self-reinforcing mechanism which causes poverty
to persist. It very often persists from generation to generation, and therefore it is
necessary to take steps to break the cycle. Strategies to do so include giving all poor
social groups access to affordable education; by anticipating the need for physical and
psychological healthcare; by offering individual guidance out of personal conflict
situations and family structures; by giving access to credit and capital markets through
venture capitalist who can found start-up companies; and by financially unburdening the
poor by re-evaluating tax models.
 Terrorism has been a major threat to all world citizens, and one which is difficult to
tackle because terrorist attacks very often present themselves in a highly unexpected
and anonymous manner. The digital revolution has even increased the possibilities for
terrorists to refine the way they organize their attacks. It is expected that they will for
attempt cyber-attacks to disrupt critical information networks and, even more likely, to
cause physical damage to information systems. There will be a growing need for new
security strategies to reduce conflicts and terrorism. Prevention, for example, can often
require direct political intervention or even the threat or use of military force as a last
resort. At the same time, psychological aspects play a role here as well, in the sense
that feeling either insecure/secure can be influenced by different factors.
Ethical issues
 Climate change and changing ecology are important drivers shaping the future of
2
society (and its behaviour) at large. Environmental pollution and the emission of CO
from the use of fossil fuels constitute a threat to health, the environment and sustainable
economic growth. It is expected to be difficult, if not impossible, stretch the limits of
resources which enable progress and development. Common awareness and a
general sense of urgency need to be created.
 In societies where values and structures are changing, there can be a great need for
new role models. Role-models are people who serve as an example and whose
behaviour is emulated by others, especially by younger generations. People identify
themselves with role models because of their impact on society and try to transform
according to the model that is provided. At present, role models are mainly people who
act in economic and political areas. The Western role model is powerful, because of his
professional position, his social standard and his wealth. This type of classical role-
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model will no longer suffice if we are going to encourage the younger generation to deal
with current societal challenges. New, more socially active role-models will have to be
put in a bright and attractive looking spotlight. Philosophy and research on morality could
play an important role in all of these points.
 Transition is a key word in the creation of sustainable societies undergoing change.
The role of transition is to inspire, encourage, connect, support and train communities as
they self-organise around transition models and creating initiatives that rebuild
2
resilience, reduce CO emissions and create a social structure that is tolerant and
vertical and horizontal socially integrated. There are many aspects that need to be
understood in order to make transition possible.
Governance
 Governance should involve non-governmental organizations, civil-society groups,
social-based organizations, multinational corporations, other business bodies, and
interest groups that have been equally, if not more effective than governmental bodies at
reframing issues and mobilizing publics through societal transition processes.
 The likely emergence of China and India and others as new major global players will
st
transform the geopolitical landscape. The 21 century may be seen as the time when
the power of Asia, led by China and India, grow. The consequences of this are likely to
be noticeable in different areas such as economic transition, migration, social
construction etc. Governments will need to adapt their strategies and structures.
 As a result of migration and increasing pluralism in society, new governance models
need to be developed, whereby citizen involvement (participatory decision making) is
becoming more important. Development of new governance models could benefit from
research in economic sciences, management sciences, sociology and psychology.
T2: Life enhancement: introduction
Scope and relevancy
“Life enhancement” is a transition area that focuses on the interrelation between food
production and consumption on the one hand, and health care on the other. Life
enhancement consists of two parts:
1) Food production and consumption: this area involves the availability and quality of
(safe) food in a world of changing power relationships, and the prevention of several
‘modern’ diseases such as diabetes. Food consumption and healthy diets will be an
inherent part of a more ‘holistic’ food and health care system. Early education and
communication (e.g. through social media) will be essential within the framework of
the previous transversal transition area Society 2.0, just as a better understanding of
how food consumption relates to health and wellbeing. When prevention fails,
remediation will be targeted to the specific needs of patients.
2) Health care: a major challenge in the coming years is to control healthcare expenses
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Most
while at the same time maintaining and even increasing health care levels.
likely, society will be facing a higher ‘disease burden’ (e.g. infectious diseases,
disability, depression, hearing loss, alcohol abuse disorder, pandemics etc.). In
particular, an increase in chronic health problems is expected, relating to conditions
such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory problems, and some types of
cancers. Without answers to these chronic diseases, heavy losses in terms of life
and economic production are expected. This, combined with a shortage of healthcare
workers, poses enormous challenges. Understanding and influencing norms, values,
attitudes and behaviour of citizens, as well as new models of labour allocation and
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DNV (2012), Technology Outlook 2020 Healthcare, developed by DNV's Research and Innovation unit
83
division (all areas where SSH research could strongly contribute), will be essential
(see Society 2.0).
In what follows we present and discuss these two subareas in more detail.
T2.1: Life enhancement: food and agriculture related
Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields
In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under this
transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges. There is not
merely one interrelation between the two, as different science, technology and innovation
areas (starting fields) may contribute to solving different societal challenges. Nevertheless,
the identified links between specific societal challenges and potential solutions stemming
from the starting fields are presented in the figure below.
Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields
Under group 1: “Health demographic change and well-being”
 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of new-borns
 Social changes (ageing population, less work active population)
 Financing pressure (related to health, pensions, social security)
Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”
 Social deconstruction
 Safety and security concerns
Under group 3: “Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry,
biodiversity)”
When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in greater detail above, major
contributions are expected from the social sciences and humanities disciplines (like
education, communication, sociology, psychology), advance materials, ICT, nanotechnology,
biotechnology, health, water, food and agriculture, environment, cognitive neurosciences and
security.
Model of identified links and interconnections
We present bellow a visual overview of the identified “food and agriculture” related nodes and
their interaction. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a
societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. Further
concretisation of the links will be established in the subsequent phases of the foresight
process. The model is discussed in more detail below.
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Starting fields
Societal challenges
Advanced Materials
ICT
Routes to potential
solutions
Nanotechnology
Population: ageing & growing
Social changes
Biotechnology
Upgrading agricultural
production
Photonics
New ‘modern’ diseases
technologies
Financing pressure
Health
societies
Social deconstruction
Healthy food production
Water
Safety & security concerns
Environment
Healthy/balanced food
consumption
System research
Food availability and security
Energy
Changing food patterns
Maintain biodiversity
KI Business Services
Water availability
Security
Mobility &Transport
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In what follows we present an overview and discussion of the identified promising nodes
within the transition area “Life enhancement”.
Node 1: Upgrading agricultural production
 As tensions around food availability seem to be increasing as a result of, among other
things, climate change, ageing and growing population, geo-political power shifts, and
dietary changes (shifts towards more/less meat consumption) it becomes necessary to
look at the efficiency of current agricultural production systems in order to secure
future food availability. This is also important for Flanders, as it is not self-sustainable
when it comes to food availability. The development of new mixed production systems
and the optimisation of genetic diversity to breed improved crops, trees, animals and fish
will make a major contribution to this. At the same time, better management systems are
required. For example, novel plant varieties adapted to a range of stresses will maintain
yields, provide greater soil coverage under poor growing conditions and reduce irrigation
needs.
 Biotechnology is expected to contribute to the upgrading of agricultural production
through market assisted selection, genetic modification (GM), propagation, therapeutics
and diagnostics (see also last node). Greater resistance to negative external influences
and efficient and effective yields can be strived for. It is expected that the cloning of GM
animals to produce meat will become feasible and mature as a technology. “Omics”
(genomics, metabolomics) will not only be applied in GM, but also in the upgrade of
conventional breeding practices, enabling cross-breeding strategies through ‘markers’,
ecological engineering looking into the relationship between species and their
environment.
 Real time information provision through smart ICT will become increasingly important in
agriculture. One can think of information such as market information prices, weather
forecasts, crop and livestock diseases, and general advice - all examples having an
effect on efficiency but also effectiveness of agricultural production.
 Nanotechnology applications in agriculture could include sensors and diagnostic
devices for better monitoring environmental conditions and plant and animal health,
disease and pest control, water and nutrient control, genetic engineering of plants and
livestock to improve productivity, and agriculture as a means to produce nanomaterial.
Nanotechnology sensors can also help to better monitor quality degradation of food
products and as such also to reduce waste in the production and consumption chain and
to improve food availability, safety and security.
 Aside from the necessity to secure food supply, food safety “from farm to fork” is also
important. Food safety and security should be considered from two perspectives. The
first concerns the alleged cross contamination risks, for example in the case of GM or
nanotechnology applications in crop design; the second largely concerns the health
parameter, where food produced should also be healthy and thus include the necessary
ingredients and substances. Safety and security actually play a role in all nodes
discussed here, and should be considered as an integral part of the entire food
production, distribution and consumption chain.
 Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water utilised by the agricultural, municipal and
industrial (including energy) sectors; this is expected to increase as a result of increased
pressure on food demand. Agricultural water management will therefore play an
important role in future global water availability and security. Food production is actually
a way to transport water. Water should be an issue of concern from two perspectives.
The first concerns a potential shortage, which puts clear demands on new ways to
transport water but also to filter and purify it (see starting field Water). The second refers
to too much water as a result of floods and/or heavy rain fall, which puts pressure on
spatial planning and design, for example but also on biotechnology, which can help to
make crops better resistant to excessive water.
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 Alongside the use of existing or new technologies for sustaining future food availability,
new forms of agriculture could also be considered. Agro-ecology is the application of
ecological science to the study, design and management of sustainable agro
ecosystems. Organic farming is considered one of the possible applications. Agro
ecological approaches are expected to spread in the near future, driven by a decline in
land and water (as discussed above), increasing energy costs, environmental quality
and conservation issues, climate change and large number of farmers untouched by
modern agricultural technology. Development and applications can diversify agricultural
production and partially shift production locally, thereby reducing transport and
potentially negative environmental effects.
 Closely related to climate change is biodiversity control and maintenance. Agriculture
and fisheries are directly related to biodiversity and the loss/gain thereof. The
environmental effects of increased ‘production’ (more use of soil and water) may be
significant. The more space agriculture and fisheries require the less space is available
for other purposes (such as biodiversity control, leisure and building).
 The application of new technologies in the food chain brings with it several ethical
questions and societal concerns (important for Society 2.0). It is essential that the
ethical concerns surrounding this debate are treated with great care. Objective
research and communication and early stage education (in primary and secondary
schools) are important in this respect. Research in this area should not only focus on
the technology, but also take into account the ethical and human factors. Furthermore,
the regulatory framework (which should be clear and stable) is important for future
innovation but also social acceptability of the use of new technologies in the food chain.
Node 2: Healthy food production
 More than a billion people remain chronically malnourished, are prone to disease and
have reduced life expectancy. This is partly due to lack of calories but also because
some staple foods in developing countries, including rice and cassava, are poor sources
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Some challenges – particularly food security and
of some vitamins and minerals.
climate change – will have their greatest impact in less developed countries. As animal
protein consumption increases, improved breeding programs and understanding of
animal nutrition will allow more efficient production and minimize the amount of grazing
land, water or feed required. Advances in plant breeding will allow plants to
photosynthesize more efficiently, so capturing more carbon dioxide. As well as the
positive effect on climate change mitigation, yields and nutritional qualities would
increase and less pressure put on land.
 Biotechnology applications make it possible to increase the health properties of
food (functional foods/nutraceuticals). Molecular diagnostics may help to establish a
link between food and disease patterns and characteristics. A particular area of interest
(see also above) is cancer in relation to specific diets and how to handle this. Functional
foods may be regarded by society as a solution to unhealthy eating habits (and thus
weaken any effort to introduce healthier diets), which is an undesired effect. And there is
the issue of social acceptability and the safety concerns associated with the use of new
enabling technologies in food production. Healthy food production provides an answer to
social changes (social disparities) and new modern diseases (e.g. obesity).
 Healthy food should, however, also be associated with convenience and consumption
(as a result of changing food patterns) pleasure (even as a result of classical production
processes), and not only with innovative production and the application of new
technologies. Flanders is quite strong on food quality and safety (sensorial aspects,
large diversity of food products). We should look closely at healthy diets, where
communication to the consumer is also important. Ageing is also an issue, but the
discussion should be directed the younger (education, awareness creation).
Segmentation of consumers is also very important. Nutritional food for specific target
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http://www.plantetp.org/images/stories/stories/documents_pdf/brochure_web.pdf
87
groups should also be taken into account (e.g. the elderly, younger people,
women/men).
 Nanotechnology can be applied in food processing and functional foods quality
control, in order to safeguard food security. Examples are processing technology and
functional foods. Nanotechnology applications may also enhance the taste and the
bioavailability of certain ingredients, reduce the content of elements such as sugar and
salt, and slow down microbial activity. However, the uptake in foodstuff is expected to be
limited as there are many concerns related to both human safety and the environment
(see also above).
 The improvement of plants and the development of other functional food ingredients
(through biotechnological applications) could help to produce high quality food, thus
helping to achieve a healthy, sustainable diet for the whole population, while more
efficient food processing and distribution can help to make high quality products
available at an affordable price. In addition to the long-term effects of diet on health,
threats to human health may also arise from zoonosis (animal-borne diseases) and the
bio-economy provides the tools to minimize this hazard. Areas where the bio-economy
will have an impact include:

Developing new foods that contribute to improved nutrition and health. In
particular, foods that promote healthy ageing or ‘adding life to years’ will be of
major importance.

Improving animal resistance to disease via breeding, optimized farm
management and feeding systems; using epidemiology as a basis for the
development of prophylactic vaccination programs; and to allow the better
prediction and handling of disease outbreaks.

Reliable and extensive data gathering and traceability in the livestock sector can
help to anticipate the need for early intervention and thus reduce the overall
burden of diseases and infections.

Tailoring plants to produce specific pharmaceuticals can be an efficient way of
making high quality and valuable materials and products such as vaccines for
both human and animal healthcare.
Node 3: Healthy/balanced food consumption
 The level of understanding of how food influences health and wellbeing (e.g. through
cognitive neuroscience progression and insights) is important in order to address several
of the modern diseases. A more fine-tuned analysis of disease is needed, in order to
make the link to food consumption and dietary patterns. Important topics are the
functioning of the human metabolism, the impact of food on mental development,
cognitive degeneration, personalized nutrition, biomarkers, welfare diseases etc. If these
diseases do not need to be addressed by the health care system, financial pressure on
health care expenses could be reduced.
 Diseases like obesity and diabetes (modern diseases) increasingly occur despite
efforts to encourage people to eat healthier and to exercise. Influencing people’s
behaviour by encouraging them to adopt different diet and exercise habits is important.
In this respect, people’s norms and values (habits and attitudes) regarding food and food
consumption need to be further investigated; communication through e.g. social media,
psychology and education (important SSH disciplines) generally have a large role to play
next to food nutritional disciplines.
 Trends in consumption already reflect a divergence in diet between the rich and the
poor, leading to a so-called health gap (as a result of social changes). As diet-related
diseases (e.g. obesity, type-2 diabetes, and colon cancer) occur and even increase, rich
consumers adapt their diets as shown by an increase in novel foods (e.g. vegetarian,
organic, special nutritional requirements). Poor people have fewer possibilities to adapt
as a result of a lower purchasing power thus creating societal tensions. Different options
could be considered to make healthy food, and mainly healthy diets, more attractive and
88
affordable. SSH research (e.g. sociology and psychology) can provide answers
regarding to deal with the growing disparity between poor and rich and the social the
resultant consequences.
 Identification of specific consumer segments may help to tailor particular food products
to specific needs and characteristics. For example, the elderly are expected to have
different food needs to youngsters. More ‘targeted’ education and communication are
also needed in order to inform citizens about healthy food patterns (industry, retail,
health organizations, media, have a role to play here). The behavioural and
communication sciences (SSH) have an important role to play here.
T2.2: Life enhancement: health related
In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under the
health related part of the “Life enhancement” transition area.
 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of new-borns
 Social changes (ageing population, less work active population)
 Financing pressure (related to health, pensions, social security)
 Human-technology interaction
biodiversity)”
Under group 6: “Global economy and global labour force”
 Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled,
When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in detail above, major contributions
are expected from the social sciences and humanities’ disciplines (mainly education,
communication, sociology and psychology), advanced materials, ICT, nanotechnology,
biotechnology, photonics, health, water, food and agriculture, environment, system research,
cognitive neurosciences, security, and mobility and transport.
Bellow we present a visual overview of the “health” related nodes identified and their
interaction. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal
challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. The model is discussed
in more detail below.
89
Starting fields
Societal challenges
Routes to potential
solutions
Advanced Materials
ICT
Nanotechnology
Social changes
New ‘modern’ diseases
Remote and patient
centred care
Biotechnology
Financing pressure
Photonics
societies
technologies
Emergence of preventive
care
Health
Human – technology interaction
& cooperation
Water
Diagnostics and new
therapeutics
Environment
System research
Human – technology
cooperation
Energy
Global labour market & war on talent
Security
Mobility &Transport
90
Node 4: Emergence of preventive care
 Prevention of diseases is becoming increasingly important given our rapidly ageing
society, increasing health care costs and associated budgetary constraints
(financing pressure). Life style (including food consumption patterns, exercising etc.)
will, among other factors, be an important prevention factor. Biodiversity, and the quality
of the environment, is also important, in the sense that the quality of our (living)
environment (including spatial planning, see also the transition area urban planning and
mobility dynamics) may help to prevent all kinds of diseases. Education (all levels) and
communication on the basis of the study and analysis of human behaviour will be
essential when aiming to change life styles (see transition area Society 2.0).
 DNA sequencing of a patient’s genome makes it possible to customize the management
of diseases. It is expected that by 2020 genome sequencing technology will be
developed to provide diagnosis to conditions that were previously not available
(conditions that patients have not yet developed!). On the basis of individual DNA
profiles (personalised disease models) it will be feasible to identify risks (e.g. obesity,
diabetes) and to design tailored preventive diets and behaviour. Pharmacogenetics will
provide insight into how individuals respond to drugs in order to eliminate undesired
reactions. Cancer genomics will facilitate early detection of cancer through identification
235
of DNA mutations. Important to note is the increasing integration and even integration
between key technologies like nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT (including data
handling).
 In this context, the upcoming field of epigenetics is also important. Epigenetics 236 is the
study of heritable changes in gene expression or cellular phenotype caused by
mechanisms other than changes in the underlying DNA sequence. It refers to
functionally relevant modifications to the genome that do not involve a change in the
nucleotide sequence. Unlike behaviour or stress, diet is one of the more easily studied
environmental factors in epigenetic change. Understanding and even being able to
influence these changes provide enormous opportunities.
 The emergence of interactomics is expected to provide numerous possibilities.
Interactomics is a discipline at the intersection of bioinformatics and biology that deals
237
The network of
with the interactions between proteins and other molecules in a cell.
such interactions is called the interactome. The interactome represents the most
important interactions pertinent to the normal physiological functions of a cell or
organisms; in the end this helps to better understand these interactions. Interactomics
require enormous data processing capacities (ICT).
 Research in nanomedicine will allow for a better understanding of the functioning of the
human body at molecular and nanometric level and it will thus provide the possibility to
intervene better at pre-symptomatic, acute or chronic stage of illnesses. Nanomedicine
exploits the improved and often novel physical, chemical and biological properties of
materials at the nanometer scale. Nanomedicine has the potential to enable early
detection and prevention, and to essentially improve diagnosis, treatment and follow-up
238
of diseases.
 Nanotechnologies are being applied in a variety of ways to provide earlier and more
accurate diagnosis, improved treatment and better support for some of the medical and
care challenges posed by the ageing population. Nanoscale drug delivery may have an
important role to play in delivering therapeutic agents across the blood-brain barrier.
Nanotechnology can offer solutions for hearing and balancing problems, eyesight
235
Connect-EU Nanobio + Nanomed, Institute for Bioengineering of Catalonia (IBEC) (2011), “Strategic Research
Agenda (2011)”
236
Bird A (May 2007). "Perceptions of epigenetics". Nature 447 (7143): 396–8.
237
Kiemer, L; G Cesareni (2007). "Comparative interactomics: comparing apples and pears?". Trends in
Biotechnology 25 (10): 448–454.
238
European Technology Platform ‘Nanomedicine’
91
problems. There are also opportunities for nanotechnology with regard to nanofunctionalized textiles, remote biosensing and healthcare monitoring, and implantable
medical devices.
 Early diagnosis (through new diagnostics, point of care testing, etc.) by means of
optical solutions can detect serious illnesses at a very early stage and avoid costly
239
Photonic technologies
treatment as early detection can prevent further outbreaks.
may provide a vital addition to the tools that a doctor can use for the diagnosis of many
severe illnesses and may also provide effective new treatments leading to early stage
cures, thereby avoiding costly long-term treatments. The application of photonics in
240
healthcare has been estimated to offer costs reductions of as much as 20%.
 Also non-invasive or minimally invasive treatments, such as therapeutic laser systems,
will help to improve patients’ health and mobility. New technologies are expected to
revolutionise healthcare and methods of predicting, preventing and treating illness e.g.
ultra-sensitive ‘lab on a chip’ biosensors. Photonic solutions and applications therefore
have an important role to play and can have a beneficial effect on patient health, on the
healthcare system and on society.
 Medical imaging will move away from visualization of anatomical footprints to the
visualization of the disease processes themselves. Diffuse optical imaging will emerge
as a technique for non-invasive in vivo imaging of biological tissue at the molecular level.
New contrast agents will add molecular information to anatomical images provided by
MRI scans. The combination will provide detailed visualization of the physiology within
an anatomical reference, which makes the early identification (and monitoring) of
diseases possible. Optic technologies like photonics will play an important role.
Node 5: Remote and patient centred care
 Point of care testing allows patient diagnoses in the physician’s office, an ambulance,
the home, the field, or in the hospital. Traditional laboratory tests and technologies such
as ultrasound, nucleic acid identification (for pathogen testing) and nuclear magnetic
resonance (for cancer cell identification) will become portable. The results are timely and
allow fast treatment of the patient. Enabling clinicians to make decisions at the point of
care may enhance health care delivery. The potential shift from curative medicine to
predictive (as discussed above) could rely on the development of portable diagnostic
and monitoring devices for point of care testing. As such, point of care testing, goes
along with a shift from the lab to the home, and thus the environment of the patient.
 Traceability systems (ICT based) will be able to monitor and document the activities
along the patient’s pathway. As the information per patient is expected to multiply,
decision support systems and software will help healthcare staff to gain access to good
practices and as such to provide a ‘second opinion’. The patient will also have a much
bigger responsibility in preventing diseases; his/her power will also increase towards
doctors in general, as he will be better informed and advised by ‘peers’ (see also below).
 Online social networking is gaining popularity and is becoming an important channel
for information gathering and sharing. Patients are sharing experiences (peer-to-peer)
and are becoming better informed, about what works and what not, and about the
potential side effects of particular medicines. There is a two-way communication made
possible between patients and healthcare professionals; the power position of patients
will increase, partly as a result of more and better information. Through remote access,
patients will be able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results
and share information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their
own health records. The dynamic flow of information, at the same time, puts pressure on
privacy protection rules and procedures, although younger generations do not seem
to be that worried about their privacy.
239
Second Strategic research Agenda in Photonics, Lighting the way ahead; Photonics 21
240
HLEG, Report on Photonics
92
 The introduction of virtual reality environments, for training and education purposes,
may also benefit the healthcare sector. Developments in web technology will provide
strong tools for online information retrieval. Through remote access, patients will be
able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results and share
information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their own health
records. These developments are also referred to as ‘clinical cloud’.
 The need (and shortage) for qualified health care workers (see also societal
challenges) is expected to increase and to further stimulate the development of remote
health care. As a result, health care systems, and in particular work division structures
(along the health care chain), will also have to be rethought. New ways of work
organisation could/should be considered in order to reduce the labour needs.
 Telemedicine will enable patients to receive healthcare at home and thus enjoy their
home environment while reducing health care costs. Wireless biomedical sensors (like
hemodynamic sensors surgically positioned to measure blood pressure) and ultrawideband radar technology (for monitoring vital body functions) will enable monitoring of
patients in their ‘natural’ environment. Smartphone applications will provide new ways
of communicating between patients and healthcare providers and will also be used for
monitoring purposes (smart phone monitoring). In general, human (smart) device
interactions, will offer several opportunities for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up.
 The ageing population is leading to an increase in the burden of neurodegenerative and
other age-related diseases and in their associated economic costs, making research
241
toward treatment development ever more urgent. This may lead to several changes in
the future of clinical research and healthcare delivery:

Telemedicine may replace or augment some face-to-face clinical encounters with
internet-based communication.

Increased use of electronic medical records (EMRs) could create opportunities for
data collected during routine clinical care to feed more easily into research. EMRs
could also enable more efficient and cost-effective research by facilitating data
sharing, patient recruitment and follow-up.

Technological advances should also allow more continuous monitoring of disease
signs and symptoms by mobile or portable devices, which could also benefit clinical
research.

The decreasing cost of genome sequencing is leading to increased use of genomic
data for profiling patients and stratifying subjects for clinical research.
Node 6: Diagnostics and new therapeutics
 New diagnostic technologies are strongly upcoming, under pressure from financial
constraints and health care management. New molecular diagnostics make it a
challenge for pathologists and clinical laboratory managers to identify which new lab
tests have the greatest clinical value, and will also be adequately reimbursed by payers.
It seems that new diagnostic technologies have transformed infectious disease testing in
the past. Rapid molecular tests make it possible for medical labs to deliver an accurate
answer in a few hours (e.g. linked to modern diseases). Similar developments are
expected for cancer testing. Two examples of how new technologies have revolutionized
testing for specific types of cancers are lymphoma/leukaemia and breast cancer. A ‘no
cure, no pay’ mentality is likely to occur, where the lack of success and cure will not be
compensated anymore by funding authorities.
 New therapeutics, and in particular therapeutic vaccines, for various diseases will
continue to be developed. Not only is the development important here, but also the
application and the setup of new business models. An important link has to be made
with ICT and the explosive demand for high speed processing capabilities. All the
241
http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/strategic_plan/blue_sky_panel.htm
93
collected data from diagnostic devices have to be analysed and processed. Computer
power is essential here.
 The application of new technologies (as described in the previous nodes above) raises a
number of ethical questions and concerns. It is essential that the ethical concerns
surrounding this debate are treated with great care. Objective research and
communication and early stage education (in primary and secondary schools) are
important. Research in this area should not only focus on the technology, but also take
into account the ethical and human aspects and also focus on ‘human-technology’
interaction processes. Furthermore, the regulatory framework (which should be clear
and stable) is important for future innovation. All these topics are important for Society
2.0.
Node 7: Human –technology cooperation
 A final promising node under the health part of ‘Life Enhancement’ is the interaction
between smart devices and humans, whereby new combinations of human and
technology are viewed in all their complexity. Humans shall increasingly interact with
machines and smart devices for greater comfort, better quality of life and life expectancy.
242
is important in order to achieve sustainable
Human – technology cooperation
breakthroughs in major innovation areas like ambient intelligence, robotics, contextsensitive services and neuroprosthetics.
 On the one hand we see the interaction with medical devices/implants (e.g. prosthetics
of knees, hips or devices that are being commanded by the human brains, like robotic
arms or legs, or even hearing implants that build-up energy from the temperature in the
ear). Nano-biotechnology integration increasingly aims to connect devices to humans
(e.g. Parkinson and deep brain stimulation).
 On the other hand improved/increased interactions with all kinds of smart devices are
expected (and are largely reality today), like smart phones, pc’s, tablets, Google class,
smart and connected cars, (social) robotics for home assistance (adaptive and assistive
environments) etc. Furthermore, human – machine interactions shall increasingly find
applications in among others traffic (airplanes, cars), education (new technology enabled
learning) and of course daily life. Physical avatars, telepresence and teleaction are
potential applications, or even the internet of ‘things’ (digital territory).
 Design and creativity also play an important role here, in the sense that the user-friendly
design of particular devices will make the interaction easier and more effective.
 Early education and communication are essential in this respect, especially for the elderly
who are not accustomed to being surrounded by smart devices. In these so-called
interaction dynamics, 1) communication and trust between humans and machines and
243
On the latter, it is expected that in the future,
2) decision dynamics are important.
autonomous machine agents will possess expanded decision making capacity, and a
deeper understanding of decision-making styles will be needed to prepare both our
intelligent machines and their human operators for effective operation in human robot
teams. Moving towards ‘ergonomics of the mind’ where there is a clear understanding of
244
which instructions machines need from human beings is important for this interaction.
 In terms of societal challenges, human-machine interaction is related to social
changes, such as part of the ageing population staying longer at home; new modern
diseases (like depression); financial pressures; and ways to deal with the increasing
interaction between humans and technology. Changes to social relationships and
humanity’s image are regarded not as consequences of technical innovation alone, but
are like legal and ethical aspects dimensions of more complex change. These challenges
242
(IAO) (2009), “New Future Fields”
243
IEEE (2012), Scannig the issue, “Interaction Dynamics: The Interface of Humans and Smart Machines”,
244
Ibid. 242
94
can be addressed by developments in SSH disciplines like sociology, anthropology,
psychology, education and communication.
T3: Smart resources management
Scope and relevancy
“Smart resources management” is a transition area that addresses ways to deal with the
problems and issues associated with the scarcity and availability of several resources. The
scarcity of materials and minerals is related to the limited availability of these resources,
while the scarcity of energy, nutrients and water is rather related to power distribution across
nations, political decisions, and technological progress. These resources have an impact on
our daily lives and are critical to our economy.
Smart resources management also involves the issue of recycling and substitution.
Recycling of resources reduces the need to exhaust new resources. Recycling asks for a
change in mentality as products need to be designed from the outset (e.g. eco-design,
cradle-to-cradle) in such a way that it is easy to recycle them at the end of their life. People
also need to change their mentality in selecting waste and taking responsibility for bringing
waste to dedicated collection places. This transition area can have a major impact on the
global economy and global politics given the increasing importance and emphasis on smart
resources management.
transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges.
 Population: ageing & growing
Under group 3: “Natural resources”
Under group 4: “Energy transition”
 External dependency
 Energy – Water nexus
Under group 5: “Physical space, mobility and time”
 Urbanization
 New ways of organizing space
 Green buildings
 Mobility
 Accessibility & interconnectivity
 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships
 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies,
rising conflicts
95
are expected from Social Sciences and Humanities, Advanced Materials, ICT,
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Photonics, Advanced manufacturing technologies, water,
Food and agriculture, Environment, Systems research, Energy, KI Business Services,
Mobility & Transport.
Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction within the
transition area of “Smart Resources”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential
interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting
fields. The model is discussed in more detail below.
96
Societal challenges
Starting fields
Routes to potential
solutions
Advanced Materials
societies
ICT
(i.a. food, water & biodiversity)
Nanotechnology
Food availability and security
Water availability
Scarcity of energy,
nutrients and water
Biotechnology
Photonics
technologies
Health
Greener & societally acceptable
forms of energy
Recycling and substitution
Water
Energy – Water nexus
External dependency
Environment
mobility and time
Urbanization
New ways of organizing space
Green buildings
Scarcity of materials and
minerals
System research
Energy
Mobility
Accessibility & interconnectivity
Security
Mobility &Transport
Global economy
Global politics
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Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within this
transition area.
Node 1: Scarcity of energy, nutrients and water
 The availability of energy, nutrients and water is situated at a different level compared
to the availability of materials and minerals. It is impossible to produce additional
materials and minerals, while it is possible to produce energy. The availability of energy,
nutrients and water is not related to a limitation in its presence, but rather due to the
power balance across countries. For example, about 70% of the planet is covered by
water while the sun does not cease to shine. There is, however, a need to find ways to
capture these resources in a more efficient way and to make better use of them.
 Safe, secure and sustainable water and sanitation services are of major importance for
our future. Water is important for all forms of life, but is also a key resource for
agriculture and industry. Irrigated agriculture has played a major role in enhancing
economic growth and reducing poverty by ensuring food supply, providing food security,
protection from flood and drought, and expanded opportunities for employment. Water is
important for industry as it can function as a solvent for a wide variety of chemical
substances and facilitates industrial cooling and transportation.
 Populations in cities are changing rapidly (albeit with clear ‘waves’) leading to
changing water demand. Flexible water provision grids and components are thus
required. In addition to water distribution, the efficient capturing of water becomes
increasingly important to avoid flooding of streets and to allow recycling. The
consumption of water in cities in an important area where social science and humanities
can contribute.
 Increasing globalization and wealth are leading to an increase in water demand which
cannot often be satisfied locally/regionally. This can lead to regional/international conflicts
as demographic change and migration requires flexible and sustainable water supply and
waste water management. In the longer run, strong competition between ‘users’ is
expected (i.e. domestic, industry, agriculture and environment) having negative effects on
prices, as water might become a scarcity (as is the case in several parts of the world).
 The availability of energy is discussed in more depth in the transition area New Energy
Demand and Delivery, while the availability of nutrients is discussed in the transition area
Life Enhancement.
Node 2: Recycling and substitution
 Manufacturers recognize that the lack of minerals and materials is becoming a serious
issue and are therefore increasingly looking for alternative methods that allow to replace
or to reduce the use of these minerals and materials. It will be important to investigate
and develop new sources of these minerals and materials; to improve the efficiency of
their use in devices; to identify substitute minerals and materials; or to develop the
infrastructure to recycle the minerals and materials once devices reach the end of their
useful life.
 There is also a need for recycling the rare earth metals at end-of-life. As Europe is a
massive importer of materials, recycling is a business that entails a lot of potential.
Moreover, recycling of materials is often more efficient than mining new materials. It is
estimated that electronic goods contain 40 to 50 times the amount of gold and precious
metals than ores mined from the ground. Increasingly, life cycle analyses are being
applied in the design of new products in order to allow an easy recycling at the end. In
addition, reverse logistics is viewed as an area that offers great potential to reduce
costs, increase revenues, and generate additional profitability for firms and their supply
chains.
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 Advanced materials play a key role in addressing raw material availability issues.
Europe is very limited with regard to natural resources. Therefore, recycling can play an
important role. Currently, Europe is a net importer of raw materials but if Europe
succeeds in recycling its consumables in an intelligent way, it can become an important
owner of raw materials. Moreover, it is often easier to get “clean” raw materials from
recycling processes compared to mining. If Europe further develops its strength in
recycling it may become an important owner of raw materials, hereby reducing its
current dependence on distributors of raw materials.
 Urban mining entails the process of reclaiming compounds and elements from
products, buildings and waste. Urban mining involves the potential to regain rare
materials as it allows the efficient collection, recycling and reuse of valuable raw
materials. This is especially important for Europe as it does not own rare materials
mines. Hence, an efficient recycling of certain rare materials can lead to a better
competitive position as this may imply that Europe will no longer be a net importer.
 There are also tremendous opportunities with regard to waste management. 245
Recycling part of the waste that is generated can have a huge impact on the
environment. For example, collecting food waste separately and recycling it ensures that
it no longer ends up in landfill but, instead, can be composted and turned into fertilizer
which is good for the environment. Phosphorus is increasingly being recycled using
wastewater-treatment techniques in order to recover the phosphorus in mineral form to
use it as a fertiliser in the agriculture industry. It is also important to avoid unnecessary
waste and to recycle unavoidable waste in useful and efficient ways. A specific
opportunity, for example, is the development of more diverse sectors, such as algae
biofuels, which provides opportunities for evaluating by-products as alternative sources
246
Another
of animal and fish feeds, in order to make less demand on food crops.
opportunity is to use unavoidable waste streams from agriculture, forestry or the
domestic sector, to produce biogas or other value-added biomaterials. In industrial
biotechnology, waste is increasingly used as primary source to produce biofuels. For
example, crop residue has been identified as a waste stream that could be tapped for
conversion into cellulosic biofuels. Environmental technologies can also be applied to
address the challenges with regard to waste management.
 Recycling requires that a system exists that allows organised waste collection. Several
countries, including Belgium, have set up a system to collect waste and have created
awareness among its citizens to participate in this system. There is currently a focus on
recycling mass flows while smaller streams of waste are often neglected due to the
balance between efforts versus benefits. An improvement in separation techniques might
further enhance the efficiency of recycling techniques. At the same time, SSH can help to
increase the awareness to consume less and to avoid waste.
 An important aspect in discussing recycling is the fact that recycling is often more
expensive than buying. This implies that incentives for the market to recycle are not
always easy to define. Hence, there is an important role for legislation and norms to
stimulate the aspects of durability and eco-efficiency.
 There is a huge role for material scientists from universities and companies to search for
substitutes for particular advanced materials. For example, gold and platinum are
increasingly replaced by other materials. Some car manufacturers are currently
introducing older systems in their cars in order to reduce their dependency on scarce
materials. There is a trend to look for more standard materials rather than the exotic. The
development of substitution materials is a complex but promising approach. Sustainable,
alternative materials can replace depleted and costly existing ones.
 Another option to be explored is to reduce the need for a specific material. This can be
done by replacing the material or by redesigning the product so that the need for the
material is reduced. A reduction of material often implies an increase in the amount of
245
246
European Commission (2012), “Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme”, Guidance Document, DG
Environment
99
energy that is needed. This trade-off is important to take into consideration. Hence, an
insight in the flows, availability, and recycling of minerals and materials in industrial
ecosystems, called mining the technosphere, is essential.
 In designing products, more attention is being devoted towards Cradle-to-Cradle
principles, renewability, and material efficiency. There is also increasing attention
towards modularity of products and systems as this often allows for a more efficient
recycling of a product at the end of its life.
Node 3: Scarcity of materials and minerals
 The availability of materials and minerals is a function of five factors: geologic;
technical; environmental and social; political; and economic. Geologic refers to the
existence and prevalence of the material and/or mineral, while technical includes the
extraction and processing. Environmental and social comprises the environmental and
social impact of producing the materials and minerals. Political refers to the possibility of
governments to influence availability through particular policies and actions, while
economic contains affordable production. Recently, the European Commission has
recognized that raw materials provide vital inputs for Europe’s economy as they are
particularly crucial for the development of modern environmentally friendly technologies.
 As the world moves toward greater use of high-tech products, the availability of rare
earth metals becomes an issue. For example, a single large wind turbine typically
contains 600 kilograms of rare earth metals. Dysprosium and neodymium both have
exceptional magnetic properties that make them especially well-suited to use in highly
efficient, lightweight motors and batteries. However, there is no way to make new rare
earth metals once the sources are exhausted.
 As materials and minerals become less available, it is essential to enhance the
efficiency of employing these materials and minerals. An increase in efficiency may
result in a decrease in use and consumption of materials and minerals. A more efficient
use of materials will become important in the future, leaving an important role for social
sciences and humanities research to enhance our awareness. Efficiency and
collaboration throughout the supply chain are seen as essential to respond to the risk of
materials and minerals shortage. Enhancing the efficiency of materials and minerals
often includes a trade-off between strength versus weight. There is an increasing
demand for light-weight and strong materials. Material efficiency can also be obtained by
designing and redesigning particular products and processes. For example, additive
manufacturing or 3D-printing allows creating objects by laying down successive layers of
materials instead of cutting and drilling. In addition, the integration of nanotechnology in
textiles and electronics allows for a smaller energy consumption, lighter weight and
increased durability, reliability and comfort.
 Materials and minerals can also influence the energy efficiency. For example, a
passive house contains well-insulated material, triple-glazed windows, solar panels, and
a ventilation system. A lot of scarce metals are needed to make photovoltaic panels,
rare earth magnets for wind generators, fuel cells and high-capacity batteries for hybrid
and electric vehicles. The further development of several renewable energy sources is
hence dependent upon the availability of several materials and minerals. But most
industrialized nations depend on foreign sources for those metals. Currently, China has
a powerful position as they mine a large amount of the world’s rare earth metals. This
may result in a change of geopolitical power and the existence of monopolies.
Moreover, as they tend to use different business models as compared to the traditional
business models established in Europe and the US, Europe might have to adapt to new
ways of doing business.
 There is an increasing dependency on materials and minerals to create products that
support our way of life, our health, and the global economy. Advances in material
sciences have allowed making products lighter, stronger and more durable. The demand
for goods and products manufactured from mineral materials is increasing at a rapid rate.
There is hence a need to identify materials and minerals that will be important for
100
existing and new technologies and products (tracing and tracking), and to assess the
environmental consequences of mining and using these resources.
 Advanced manufacturing technologies can help to reduce the need for particular minerals
and materials. Additive manufacturing or 3D-printing, for example, allows creating
objects by laying down successive layers of materials instead of removing material
through cutting and drilling.
T4: Urban planning and mobility dynamics
Scope and relevancy
“Urban planning and mobility dynamics” is a transition area that focuses on the way our
urban areas and cities will be designed and organised in the future, thereby taking into
account wellbeing, accessibility, mobility, safety and social balance. In a broader sense,
urban areas will move towards more environmental friendly buildings, modularity and
multipurpose space, etc. Big challenges are faced here as Flanders is an urban region.
Urban areas such as Flanders are expected to be confronted with what we could call social
deconstruction due to large differences in income levels of inhabitants, and this in the realm
of demographic change, globalisation and increasing migration (see Society 2.0). Affordable
and accessible housing will be a challenge as well, just as accessibility of and transport
of goods (food and feed) into the cities. Urban areas will have to be designed differently,
while time will most likely be organised more flexibly.
It is interesting to note that this transition area seems to include a lot of insights stemming
from SSH disciplines and related areas.
Under group 1: “Health, demographic change and well-being”
 Social changes
 Social deconstruction
 Safety and security concerns of citizens
 Urbanization
 New ways of organizing space
 Green buildings
 Mobility
rising conflicts
 Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled,
101
are expected from Social Science and Humanities, Health, Water, Environment, Energy,
Security, and Mobility and Transport.
Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction in the
transition area “urban planning and mobility dynamics”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers
to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from
the starting fields. Further concretisation of the links will be done in the subsequent phases of
the foresight process. The model is discussed in more detail below.
102
Societal challenges
Starting fields
Routes to potential
solutions
Advanced Materials
Social changes
ICT
societies
Nanotechnology
Social deconstruction
Biotechnology
Inclusive cities
Photonics
technologies
mobility and time
Sustainable logistics
Health
Urbanization
Water
New ways of organizing space
Green buildings
Mobility
Spatial urban cities
Time management & time planning
System research
Environment
Energy
Moving to, from and in city
Global politics
Global labour market & war on talent
Security
Mobility &Transport
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Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within the
transition area “urban planning and mobility dynamics”. The discussion focuses on the most
promising development by linking societal challenges to specific (potential) developments
under each of the starting fields, as mentioned earlier, as a basis for refinement in the
subsequent phases of the foresight process.
Node 1: Inclusive cities
 A growing number of cities and communities are becoming ‘age friendly cities’ in order
to create inclusive and accessible urban environments to benefit their ageing
populations. Age friendly cities are concerned with the active involvement of elderly
people in community life by ensuring that all barriers to independent living and active
involvement are removed. For example, the accessibility of parks and buildings, trains
and subways is an important issue to allow the elderly to live comfortably in a city for
which mobility is key to maintaining an active life.
 Environmental design can play an important role in order to adjust to the urgent needs
of different social groups. Housing elderly people close to schools and parks can improve
the mental well-being of the elderly generation and can also create awareness within the
group of younger generations towards the needs of the elderly. A well-thought out design
can make a city pleasant and enjoyable, particularly when including an intelligent use of
the scarce green and open spaces. This can have a positive effect on psychological
health and mental well-being. In addition, green roofs can help improve biodiversity and
the quality of water/run-off. This can lead to more resilient cities.
 The way space is used in cities can help to reduce criminality and hence augment the
people’s sense of security. In designing and redesigning districts, it is therefore important
to consider the spatial aspect and the potential dynamics that will be associated with it. A
thorough refreshment of particular areas can create a whole different dynamic.
 As a result of several ICT developments, information will become ‘real time’ and
adjusted to our needs. In several places in the city, it could become possible to get
access to real time information about particular social and cultural activities taking place.
ICT developments also allow for smart cities which aim to optimise urban systems, by
monitoring and managing energy, water, traffic, passengers, discharge, emission and
effluent flows from urban activities.
 Living in highly concentrated cities will mean that research has to be carried out on
new models of sustainable urban development, waste management, and recycling
innovations.
 A different combination of hybrid functions within areas or buildings can create new
dynamics with improvements on quality of living and well-being. For example the
integration of work and living functions within one building or area can improve the quality
of the infrastructure of the whole district and improve safety because of increased social
control.
Node 2: Spatial urban cities
 The emergence of urban cities regards the spatial aspect of living. In every city, there
are districts that prosper and flourish, while there are other districts which are in decline.
The latter districts often experience an increase in criminality, a growth in poverty, and a
rise in vacancy of houses and shops. The architecture within particular districts
contributes to the rise or fall of these districts in the way that smart architectural planning
can create open spaces and smart housing in dense and tense districts.
 The construction of parks, design of buildings, accessibility by train and subways, all
have a major influence on criminality rates in certain areas within cities. Crime prevention
through environmental design is a concept that uses the physical environment as
protection against attack. It attempts to create a defensive environment from a physical
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and the psychological point of view. The goal is to reduce the opportunities for a crime to
occur by employing physical design features that discourage crime, while at the same
time encouraging legitimate use of the environment.
 Space, territory and landscape (political, social, urban, natural etc.) as the overlap
between physical space and virtual space is increasingly discussed and virtual
landscapes of communication are redefining our sense of space and time. The human
habitat and its landscapes are being redefined in dramatic ways, and new physical and
symbolic geographies are needed to explore it. Hence, social science and humanities
research has a major role to play.
 The modern city will be based upon and conducive to greater levels of
interdependence and cooperation. A number of economic processes capitalize on the
production of social relations, urban lifestyles, and networking that are made possible by
urban life itself. The traditional ‘industrial’ city organized around stable forms of work and
housing, essentially managing national problems (whether in terms of employment,
housing, citizenship, etc.) is slowly being replaced by a complex, open-ended urban
space, the boundaries of which are uncertain and often stretched far beyond the nationstate.
 In order to create open and accessible cities on a social and organizational level, it is
interesting to look into the possibilities of modular building. These are flexible building
blocks to meet the goals of a smart city in supporting a sustainable high-quality lifestyle
for citizens.
 The city is where people from across the world come to seek work, knowledge, wealth,
and a home. It is also the place where inequality, poverty and crime are visible in
concentrated forms. The reshuffling of urban space and of the identities that inhabit
it is still underway, and the categories, concepts, and paradigms at our disposal.
Migrants, generally young and mainly living in urban areas, will further intensify Europe’s
ties with neighbouring regions, by creating cultural and economic links with their country
of origin.
Node 3: Moving to, from and in city
 The growth of urban areas across Europe is a major challenge for urban transport as it
brings about a greater need for individual transport modes, thereby generating
congestion and environmental problems. As most freight and passenger transport starts
or stops in urban areas, urban congestion is also expected to negatively affect interurban travel. At the same time the organization of collective modes of transport runs into
land availability and public acceptability problems.
 Transport is an important means to get to work, to school, to friends and family. Every
year more cars enter the roads, leading to huge traffic jams, especially in large cities.
There are many ways in which urban spaces can benefit from rejecting “car culture” and
reconstructing the grid, from adding bike lanes, to creating green spaces, to turning
streets into people-friendly social spaces. A different use of individual transport within
cities can contribute to the control of dense traffic in cities. Bikes, motorcycles and new
transport modes can replace cars and buses in cities.
 The increasing amount of cars and freight transport on the road contributes to global
warming and other environmental problems. A possible solution is to discourage the use
of cars for all transportation. A car is virtually a global status symbol. A change of
mentality can be a major solution. Another solution is to look at alternatives such as
home working (see topic of ‘time’ above). Little attention is devoted to whether it makes
sense that all employees leave at the same hour to work.
 Time may obtain a new notion; it may be organized more flexibly with public services
(like schools) and companies operating at different moments in time so that congestion
can be avoided. Free time might also get a new meaning as it can be organized more
flexibly - partly virtual and partly real.
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Node 4: Sustainable logistics
 Freight transport is an important cause of urban congestion. To avoid an overload of
freight transport, new smart combinations of water transport, transport by train and by
truck offer possibilities towards the future.
 Aside from a different approach towards transportation modes, the use of roads can be
re-evaluated, in the way that driving directions can change depending on the amount of
incoming and outgoing traffic. Other options are intelligent transportation systems for
traffic signal control, intelligent traffic lights, etc. The hours in between those which freight
transport and passenger transport is allowed offers promising prospects.
 Besides the high impact on urban and environmental traffic, logistics have an impact on
the cities and their surroundings because of the enormous weight they put on climate and
environment. Moving to a less energy-intensive mode of transport such as water
transport is not always an option. But as new technologies are becoming available,
logistics companies are quickly incorporating them to reduce the supply chain’s carbon
footprint and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
 Towards the future, cities will become increasingly self-supporting. Methods such as
urban farming, the creation of own energy delivery and local production are increasingly
integrated in urban infrastructure. This may imply that there will be less unemployment,
increasing social control and less freight transport moving in and out the urban
environment.
T5: New energy demand and delivery
Scope and relevancy
“New energy demand and delivery” is a transition area that has a huge impact on everyday
life. People consume energy in almost all aspects of their life. Industry and agriculture are
also heavily dependent upon energy. As energy has been relatively cheap in the past but is
becoming increasingly expensive, a new attitude towards energy consumption starts to
emerge. This includes rearranging our lifestyles, both individually and collectively, to reduce
the energy required for a particular service.
Moreover, significant challenges arise for the management of energy demand and supply.
The mix between traditional sources of energy and renewable sources requires adjustments
in the infrastructure and an improved efficiency in power generation and distribution. The
capability to effectively and economically capture, store and use energy when needed, is an
important issue that has become more prevalent due to the use of renewable energy and
progress in the development and use of batteries. Adjusting the energy system takes time;
therefore it is essential to develop a vision on the way forward.
106
 Population: ageing & growing
 Financing pressure
 Human-technology interaction
biodiversity)”
 Food – Energy nexus
 Water availability, scarcity and cost structure
Under group 4: “Energy transition”
 External dependency
 Urbanization
 Green buildings
 Mobility
 Time management & time planning
 Accessibility & interconnectivity
rising conflicts
are expected from the Social Sciences and Humanities, Advanced Materials, ICT,
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Photonics, Advanced manufacturing technologies,
Environment, Systems Research, KI Business Services, Security and Mobility and Transport.
Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction in the
transition field “new energy and delivery”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential
interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting
fields. The model is discussed in more detail below.
107
Societal challenges
Starting fields
Routes to potential
solutions
Financing pressure
Advanced Materials
ICT
societies
Nanotechnology
Safety and security concerns
Biotechnology
Human – technology interaction &
cooperation
Rationalisation and
efficiency of energy
consumption
Photonics
technologies
Food – Energy nexus
Water availability
Health
Managing energy demand
and supply
Water
Changes in energy demand
& delivery
Greener & societally acceptable
forms of energy
Environment
System research
External dependency
Diversified sources of
energy
Energy
mobility and time
Urbanization
Green buildings
Mobility
Security
Time management & time planning
Mobility &Transport
Global politics
108
Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within the
transition area “new energy demand and delivery”.
Node 1: Rationalization and efficiency of energy consumption
 In the past, energy has been cheap, leading to abundance in energy use. For example, a
light bulb converts less than 5% of the energy it uses into visible light. The remaining
energy is converted into heat. As late as 2009, the European Commission adopted a plan
to phase out standard, incandescent light bulbs by 2012. As energy becomes more
expensive, there is a tendency to use energy more consciously. Lighting accounts for a
significant share of worldwide energy consumption. Huge benefits can be achieved by
applying energy-efficient lighting through the use of next-generation photovoltaics and
solid-state lighting. Social science and humanities research can play a huge role in
creating awareness.
 Smart grids allow improvement of energy efficiency as they can intelligently integrate the
actions of all users connected to it (both generators and consumers) in order to
efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies. It also requires
an increased human-technology interaction as people will have to deal with more
intelligent devices.
 Other ways to enhance the efficiency in energy consumption, alongside smart grids, are
the development of intercontinental grids and off-grid solutions. The opportunities for
off-grid solar are rapidly increasing due to some technological innovations e.g. a new
trend in the off-grid solar market is solar powered products designed specifically with cell
phone charging in mind. Off-grid solutions also offer one solution to the increasing
demand for local energy. Photovoltaic off-grid systems are an interesting option for rural
electrification in developing countries, where they are crucial in providing energy for light,
247
drinking water, refrigeration and communication.
 Consumers can influence their own consumption patterns through using smart meters,
smart grids and smart technologies. This involves an upgrading of the current networks.
Distribution networks will need to embrace active network management technologies to
efficiently integrate distributed generation, including residential micro generation, on a
large scale. For example, substantial offshore and improved onshore transmission
infrastructure will be required in the near term to facilitate the development of wind power
across Europe.
 Industry also faces significant challenges to reduce its energy consumption. Several
companies do not monitor their energy use of their own facilities. However, energy use
can be reduced significantly by scheduling the production intelligently, by using more
efficient equipment (e.g. variable-frequency drives and power-control devices) or through
design of improvements (e.g. in the reuse of waste heat).
 Advanced manufacturing processes may become more energy efficient in the future, as
companies increasingly strive to integrate sustainable manufacturing techniques into their
business practices to reduce costs, to decrease supply-chain risks, and to enhance
product appeal to some customers. Process monitoring and control for optimising the
performance and resource/energy consumption on machine and factory level will become
increasingly important. This includes selectively switching off systems and components,
using smart sensor networks and energy-efficient scheduling approaches, reducing
peaks in energy demand, recovering and reusing electrical energy from decelerating
drives or process heat.
 There is a trend to go towards real-time pricing as this allows the consumer to optimize
its energy consumption. The cost of producing energy varies significantly throughout the
day. In order to address this fluctuation, real-time pricing can be applied. This implies,
247
A Strategic Research Agenda for Photovoltaic Solar Energy Technology, 2011
109
however, that technology is available that allows measuring hourly consumption and that
an appropriate regulatory framework is in place.
 The rationalization and optimization of energy consumption includes huge costs as
several costs need to be made upfront. For example, adjustments in energy
infrastructure are made upfront before any benefits can be obtained. As the financing of
these systems are made at the beginning, this poses huge challenges to the current
system (OPEX versus CAPEX). Hence, there is a need for new business models. There
is also a social aspect to this, namely who gets the benefits and who pays the bills, as
the benefits from an update of the infrastructure is sometimes difficult to measure.
 In order to rationalize and optimize the energy consumption in a city, it is essential to
develop a vision toward realizing this energy efficiency. This vision includes options to
install the necessary infrastructure, to realize new energy-efficient buildings, to adjust
mobility e.g. develop a strategy to enhance the use of electric vehicles in the city. In
addition, SSH can contribute to the development of this vision by providing insights with
regard to problems/opportunities in rationalizing energy consumption by consumers,
necessary steps that consumers should take to reduce their demand, and in educating
customers about energy and its rightful usage.
 Several technologies can help to realize better energy efficiency. Nanotechnology for
example, can lead to innovations in the efficiency of solar cells and the realization of high
efficiency fuel cells. It is also important to look at the system level and not to focus solely
on the individual level of energy efficiency. Interactions at a broader level can play an
important role in increasing energy efficiency.
Node 2: Managing energy demand and supply
 There is a need for energy demand management in order to bring demand and supply
of energy closer to a perceived optimum. Supply can refer to power plants, nuclear
plants, solar farms, wind turbines, and any other source of power. Traditional sources of
supply like power plants and nuclear plants tend to produce electricity in a more constant
way compared to renewable sources like solar farms or wind turbines that show more
peaks dependent upon the available of sun or wind. This supply needs to match the
demand. The demand of energy is cyclical due to the difference between day and night.
There is a need to buffer energy as there are several energy peaks throughout the day.
Currently, there is no possibility for durable energy storage, which makes it difficult to
obtain an optimized management of demand and supply.
 Supply of energy also implies that there is an infrastructure in place that delivers the
energy to houses and companies or an infrastructure that allows getting gasoline and
diesel at gas stations. The existing infrastructures are being challenged as there is an
increasing supply of renewable energy. For example, many houses have solar panels on
their roofs. It is a huge challenge to make sure that the infrastructure can capture the
abundance of solar energy generated at specific points during a day. Another challenge
in infrastructure for the supply of energy is how to make sure that one can get easy
access to hydrogen for fuel cells, electricity to charge a car, etc.
 The supply of renewable energy, like solar and wind energy are generated at a local
level which is ideal for the use of smart grids. However, the management of the energy
supply network is a huge challenge as both large multinational electricity companies and
small renewable energy players are present in the market. There is a need for increased
flexibility in this regard. The efficiency in producing this energy still has room for
improvement.
 The supply of energy also has a geographic and strategic aspect. Europe is not well
endowed with energy sources in contrast to some other continents. The US, for example,
has large shale gas reserves; while Russia and China possess a large amount of energy
sources. The strategy to deal with this inequality of availability in energy resources will
become increasingly important for Europe. It will require a vision on how to integrate a
mix of several energy resources, including sources of energy that can be internally
generated and validated in order to reduce external dependency.
110
 As the demand for local energy is increasing, the importance of batteries is rising. Most
electronic devices require more energy due to an increasing amount of functionalities and
the need to go wireless. Several types of batteries are being used for large-scale energy
storage and to improve grid flexibility and stability. There is also extensive research on
advanced materials and advanced batteries to apply them in smart grid and electromobility applications.
 Electricity is being generated using turbines and spools, requiring magnets. These
magnets are built using scarce materials, therefore choices will need to be made with
regard to which materials to continue to use in the future seen the availability of these
scarce materials in the future. These choices will depend upon scientific and social
science and humanities insights.
Node 3: Diversified sources of energy
 Increasing oil prices plays an important role in the search for new alternative sources of
energy. In addition, the political attention towards climate changes, decarbonisation and
the environment has further accelerated the search for renewable energy. As Europe is
not well endowed with energy sources, the access to alternative sources of energy is of
strategic importance.
 There are several advantages and disadvantages in using renewable energy. One of
the advantages is that while wind and sun are easily available, solar panels and windmills
make heavy use scarce materials. Next generation photovoltaic cells have the potential
to reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide. In general, decarbonisation is a major
driver for the development of renewable energy. There are also several challenges
associated with wind power and solar panels, such as the costs of operating and
maintaining offshore wind farms, and providing energy access in rural areas using
photovoltaic cells.
 Biofuels is another source of renewable energy that has been subject to debate. First
generation biofuels use valuable farmland to produce biofuels, while the second focuses
on agricultural residues or waste. While first generation biofuels are in competition with
the food supply, the second generation is not. For example, algae can be grown on
non-agricultural land, most of them do not require fresh water, and their feedstock
potential for biofuel production is high. It is necessary to make conscious choices with
regard to the kind of renewable energy one wants to support. Should it be wind energy,
solar energy or geothermal energy? The answer depends upon many factors, including
insights from science, technology and social science and humanities.
 New products can be created from biomass to replace those based on fossil fuels, while
sustainable intensification of agriculture and forestry can protect carbon stocks in soils
and forests. Downstream processing which uses bio-catalysis or fermentation to replace
chemical processing can save a billion tons or more of CO2 emissions across a wide
range of industrial sectors. Partial replacement of petrol and diesel by biofuels can add
248
significantly to this.
 Another source of energy is the use of shale gas. Shale gas has become an increasingly
important source of natural gas in the United States since the start of this century, and
interest has spread to potential gas shales in the rest of the world. This implies that the
interest for oil from the Middle-East is declining, leading to a potentially different dynamic
within worldwide politics, as the US concentrates increasingly on shale gas. However, as
shale gas produces CO2, it is not considered to be durable and is therefore not a
preferred option by the EC.
 An important aspect of renewable energy is energy storage. It is a challenge to find
ways to store the massive amount of excess electricity that the sun and wind produce for
the “down times” when it is dark and the air is still. Energy storage involves conversion,
which often leads to inefficiencies and loss of energy.
248
111
 In order to secure energy supply several sources need to be tapped into, implying a
diversified and flexible policy toward these various energy sources. The security of
energy supply is an important driver to mix traditional sources of energy with renewable
sources. This implies that centralized large-scale systems such as nuclear and gas
power plants and decentralised systems based on renewable energy generation will
increasingly have to work together. This also involves nuclear energy having a presence,
as it provides a significant contribution in energy provision and it is a key source of low
carbon electricity generation. If a larger share of energy demand can be covered by local
renewable energy sources, the dependence on imported energy and the reliance on
foreign oil and gas can be reduced. This also has an influence on the energy price.
 Another aspect is the framework conditions in which energy systems of the future will
operate. In Europe, a liberalization of the energy market has taken place over the last
decade. This has influenced the price setting, competition, and the position of large
multinationals in this industry. Recently, there is a trend towards more regulation of the
energy market as this has consequences, such as the introduction of smart grids, and the
deployment of diverse energy sources. It is important to formulate a vision with regard to
the mix of diversified sources of energy a country aims to use. Germany has formulated
its Energiewende, which includes a plan to shift from nuclear and fossil fuels to
renewable energy. In formulating a vision, it is essential to find a good balance towards
feasibility and keeping all options open.
112
ANNEXES
113
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2. Websites consulted
Institute/Project
Website
Academy of Finland and Tekes
American Chemical Society, USA
http://www.finnsight2015.fi/
http://www.chemicalvision2020.org/pdfs/materials_tech_roa
dmap.pdf
http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025transformed-world
http://www.battelle.org/media/news/
http://www.cost.eu/
http://www.chemicalvision2020.org/pdfs/matconst.pdf
Atlantic Council
Battelle Memorial Institute, USA
COST
DOE and Materials Technology Institute Inc.,
USA
DOE-Industrail Technologies Program, USA
Elsevier
Environmental Knowledge for Change
European Foresight Monitoring Network
European Foresight Platform
European Technology Platforms
Foresight Institute Advanced Beneficial
Nanotechnology, USA
Fraunhofer-ISI, Germany
Future for all
Futurescape Scenarios
Horizon 2020
iKNOW Project
IMAAC-INFOMAT Databank
Industry Canada
Innovation Futures (project)
Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies, Spain
Irish Council for Science, Technology and
Innovation, Ireland
Key Technologies for Europe
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/industry/imf/pdfs/concrete_rd
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0160791X
http://www.grida.no/
http://www.efmn.info/
http://www.foresight-platform.eu/
http://cordis.europa.eu/technology-platforms/
http://www.foresight.org/
http://www.isi.fhg.de/homeisi.htm
http://www.futureforall.org/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/livediscussion-technology-enabled-change-future
http://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/index_en.cfm?pg=
home&video=none
http://wiwe.iknowfutures.eu/
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Strategic Foresight Group
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Teknisk Framsyn, Sweden
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The Millennium Project
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https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
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http://www.wfs.org/
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http://futureofed.org/
Mass Insight Corporation, USA
MIT-Microphotonics Center, USA
MONA Project, France
Office for Science and Technology, UK
Social Innovation Europe
SSH EC Forward Looking
120
3. Consulted experts (interviews)
Naam
Functie
Organisatie
Kurt Deketelaere
Algemeen directeur
LERU
Erik Schokkaert
Professor/voorzitter Metaforum
Metaforum KUL
Hans Bruyninckx
Directeur HIVA/Promotor Steunpunt
Duurzame ontwikkeling
HIVA/KUL
Scientific officer
DG RTD - SSH, Prospective
Geert van Hootegem
Prof. Arbeidssociologie/Voorzitter
Adviesraad Flanders Synergy
KUL
Martin Hinoul
Business Developer KUL
LRD KUL
Jo Bury
Algemeen directeur
VIB
Johan Braeckman
Professor Wijsbegeerte en Moraalrecht
Ugent
Paul Timmers
Director of ICT adressing Societal
Challenges
DG INFSO, European Commission
Josephus Van Sas
R&D external affairs
Alcatel-Lucent
Guido Verhoeven
Algemeen directeur
SIM
Renilde Craps
Algemeen directeur
Flanders' Drive
Bart Verhaege
Directeur
Verenigde Verenigingen
Peter Degadt
Directiecomité - gedelegeerd bestuurder Zorgnet Vlaanderen
Kristel De Roy
Directeur
Verso
Brigitte Mouligneau
Afdelingshoofd, ViA
Staf VR
Erwin Lamot
Algemeen directeur
Flanders' FOOD
Jacqueline Castenmiller
Professor/senior onderzoek
Wageningen Centre for Food
Sciences
Dirk Fransaer
Algemeen directeur
VITO
Johan Van Helleputte
VP Strategische Ontwikkelingen
IMEC
Marc Van Sande
Umicore
Umicore
Jan Geeraert
Algemeen directeur
Flanders' Plastic Vision
Maka De Lameillieure
Algemeen directeur
Flanders' InShape
Mieke Van Gramberen
Algemeen directeur
Flanders' Synergy
Filip Arnaut
Directeur O&O
Puratos Belgium
Koen Valgaeren
Algemeen directeur
VIM
Marcel de Heide
Senior Consultant
TNO
Fabien Pinaut
Marketing Consultant
CEA
Domenico Rossetti di
Valdalbero
121
4. Consulted Experts (Foresight Camp)
Name
Function
Organization
Antoon Soete
Business Manager
3E
Luc Van der Biest
Partner
Leeward Investments
Karel Van Acker
Coördinator
Steunpunt voor Duurzaam
Materialenbeheer
Filip Arnaut
Director O&O
Puratos
Bas Sturm
Manager
Innovatiecentrum Vlaams-Brabant
Herman Derache
Director
Sirris
Freek Couttenier
Advisor
Agoria
Walter Ysebaert
Lecturer and Research Policy
Advisor
VUB
Pascal Cools
Director
Flanders DC
Bart Verhaeghe
Director
Verenigde Vernigingen
Jan Larosse
Policy Advisor
EWI
Erwin Lamot
Director
Flanders Food
Peter Vercaemst
Unit Manager
VITO
Monika Sormann
Policy Advisor
EWI
Dirk Carrez
Director
Cleverconsult
Jean –Claude Burgelman
Scientific Advisor
EC
Martin Hinoul
Business Developer
LRD KUL
Hilde Willekens
Head of Communications
FlandersBio
Dirk Fransaer
Managing Director
Vito
Johan Van Helleputte
Chief Executive Officer
Imec
122
5. Agenda Foresight Camp
VRWI FOR FLANDERS2025: Foresight Camp
INVENTORY OF SOCIETAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGICAL AND INNOVATION
TRENDS
TOWARDS 2025
27 November 2012
Raadszaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek – Vlaanderen, Egmontstraat 5,
1000 Brussel
9.00u – 9.30u
Reception
9.30u - 9.45u
Introduction VRWI for Flanders2025
9.45u - 10.15u
Inventory of societal, scientific, technological and innovation trends related to
Transformative Areas:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
10.15u - 11.15u
Life Enhancement
Smart Resources Management
Urban Planning and Mobility Dynamics
New Energy Demand and Delivery
Society 2.0
Discussion and reflection on Transformative Areas in subgroups
1. Group 1: Life Enhancement
2. Group 2: New Energy Demand and Delivery
3. Group 3: Urban Planning and Mobility Dynamics
11.15u - 11.30u
Coffee Break
11.30u - 12.30u
Reflection and presentation of the ideas by subgroups
12.30u - 13.30u
Lunch Break
13.30u - 14.45u
Discussion and reflection on Transformative Areas in subgroups
1. Group 1: Life Enhancement
2. Group 2: Smart Resources Management
3. Group 3: Society 2.0
14.45u - 15.45u
Reflection and presentation of the ideas by subgroups
15.45u - 16.00u
Coffee Break
16.00u – 17.00u
Conclusion and delineation of the Transformative Areas
123
6. Steering Committee VRWI Foresight Study 2025
President:
Dirk Boogmans (VRWI, president)
Captains of Industry:
Wouter De Geest (BASF)
Filip Dierckx (Febelfin)
Christ’l Joris (ETAP lighting)
Geert Palmers (3E)
Rudi Pauwels (Biocartis)
Yves Servotte (Beneo)
Ajit Shetty (Johnson & Johnson)
Lard Vanobbergen (Brontec)
Captains of Society:
Pascal Cools (Flanders DC)
Serge De Gheldere (Futureproofed, klimaatambassadeur Al Gore)
Ann Demeulemeester (ACW)
Liesbeth Geysels (VIL)
Fons Leroy (VDAB)
Inge Vervotte (Emmaüs vzw)
Academics:
Freddy Mortier (Universiteit Gent)
Erik Schokkaert (Metaforum K.U.Leuven)
Trendwatcher:
Fons Van Dyck (Think BBDO)
Observers:
Peter Desmedt (SVR)
Elisabeth Monard (FWO-Vlaanderen)
Brigitte Mouligneau (Procesmanager Vlaanderen in Actie)
Pierre Verdoodt (Departement EWI)
Scientific support:
Luk Bral (SVR)
Koenraad Debackere (ECOOM)
Joep Konings (STORE)
VRWI staff:
Danielle Raspoet (VRWI, secretary)
Elie Ratinckx (VRWI, senior researcher)
124

a window of opportunity

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