Garvies Point Project Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Glen

Transcription

Garvies Point Project
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
June 2016
Prepared For:
Glen Cove IDA
Prepared By:
120 West Avenue, Suite 303
Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
518.899.2608
www.camoinassociates.com
Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 1 Economic Impact ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Fiscal Impact ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Project Details ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Economic Impact Analysis .................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Construction Phase Impacts ..................................................................................................................... 5 Operation Phase Annual Impacts ............................................................................................................. 6 Net New Economic Activity .................................................................................................................. 6 Economic Impact .................................................................................................................................. 6 Fiscal Impact Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 10 Impact on City and Districts .................................................................................................................... 10 City General Fund Revenue ................................................................................................................ 10 Total Non‐Real Estate Tax Related Revenue Change ......................................................................... 13 General Fund Expense ........................................................................................................................ 13 Total City Expense Change ................................................................................................................. 20 Net Impact to the City ............................................................................................................................ 21 City Miscellaneous Revenue............................................................................................................... 21 City Expense ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Net Impact .......................................................................................................................................... 23 School District .................................................................................................................................... 24 Attachment A – What is Economic Impact Analysis? .......................................................................... 27 Attachment B – Public Safety and School District Letters.................................................................... 28 Attachment C – Impact on Nassau County .......................................................................................... 29 Attachment D – Public School Aged Children Analysis Memo ............................................................. 44 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Executive Summary Camoin Associates was commissioned by Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency (the “IDA”) to conduct an economic and fiscal impact study of a proposed waterfront development (the “Project”) in the City of Glen Cove. The Project is proposed to be built by RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC (the “Company”) on the north side of Glen Cove Creek along Garvies Point Road (the “Site”). It is expected that full build out of the Project will take five years and consist of 1,110 residential units, including 513 market rate condo units, 486 market rate rental units, 56 workforce condo units and 55 workforce rental units. In addition to the residential units, the Project includes a marina, restaurant, retail and commercial office space. Full occupancy is expected by year 8. Economic Impact The table below summarizes the economic impact of the Project on the City’s economy, including the impact during the 5‐year construction phase and beyond. The 466 jobs related to the construction would generate approximately $36 million in earnings annually, and the jobs created as a result of the on‐site employment and new households would generate approximately $22 million annually in earnings (2014 dollars). The impact is a result of the new employment at the Project and new household spending (the direct effects) and also a result of spending re‐circulating throughout the economy, as local businesses make additional purchases and employees spend their wages locally (the indirect effects). Economic Impact of Project - Construction Through Full Build Out
Year
Construction
Direct and
Indirect Jobs*
Operation Jobs - Direct Impact**
Household
Commercial***
Spending
Employment
1
2017
466
2
2018
466
3
2019
466
31
22
4
2020
466
126
89
5
2021
466
157
111
6
2022
189
133
7
2023
236
167
8
2024
315
222
9
2025
315
222
10
2026
315
222
11
2027
315
222
12
2028
315
222
13
2029
315
222
14
2030
315
222
15
2031
315
222
16
2032
315
222
17
2033
315
222
18
2034
315
222
19
2035
315
222
20
2036
315
222
21
2037
315
222
22
2038
315
222
23
2039
315
222
24
2040
315
222
25
2041
315
222
Source: Camoin Associates, Developer
*Phased in based on construction schedule
**Phased in based on occupancy schedule
***Commercial includes retail, restaurant, office, and marina space.
Page 1 Operation Jobs - Indirect Impact**
Household
Spending
Commercial***
Employment
-
1
3
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
0
2
2
2
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Total Impact
Construction
and Operation
466
466
521
685
740
328
410
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
547
Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Fiscal Impact The fiscal impact analysis examines the impact that the Project will have on the fiscal resources of the City of Glen Cove and the Glen Cove City School District. See Attachment C for Nassau County Impact Analysis. The table below provides a summary of the anticipated net impacts of the Project on the City and School District upon the full occupancy of the Project, not including any property tax payments. Net Fiscal Impact of Project on City and School District - Does Not Include any Property Tax Payments
City Impact
School District Impact
Year
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Expenses
Net
Expenses
Net
Revenues*
Revenues*
1
2017
$
1,670,914 $
30,840 $
1,640,073 $
$
$
2
2018
$
2,381,967 $
31,457 $
2,350,510 $
$
$
3
2019
$
65,528 $
126,944 $
(61,417) $
$
86,902 $
(86,902)
4
2020
$
280,718 $
419,748 $
(139,031) $
$
354,560 $
(354,560)
5
2021
$
340,875 $
526,834 $
(185,959) $
$
452,064 $
(452,064)
6
2022
$
417,231 $
603,984 $
(186,753) $
$
553,327 $
(553,327)
7
2023
$
531,969 $
770,079 $
(238,110) $
$
705,491 $
(705,491)
8
2024
$
723,478 $
1,047,308 $
(323,830) $
$
959,468 $
(959,468)
9
2025
$
737,948 $
1,068,254 $
(330,307) $
$
978,658 $
(978,658)
10
2026
$
752,707 $
1,089,619 $
(336,913) $
$
998,231 $
(998,231)
11
2027
$
767,761 $
1,111,412 $
(343,651) $
$
1,018,196 $
(1,018,196)
12
2028
$
783,116 $
1,133,640 $
(350,524) $
$
1,038,559 $
(1,038,559)
13
2029
$
798,778 $
1,156,313 $
(357,534) $
$
1,059,331 $
(1,059,331)
$
1,080,517 $
(1,080,517)
14
2030
$
814,754 $
1,179,439 $
(364,685) $
15
2031
$
831,049 $
1,203,028 $
(371,979) $
$
1,102,128 $
(1,102,128)
16
2032
$
847,670 $
1,227,088 $
(379,418) $
$
1,124,170 $
(1,124,170)
17
2033
$
864,623 $
1,251,630 $
(387,007) $
$
1,146,654 $
(1,146,654)
18
2034
$
881,916 $
1,276,663 $
(394,747) $
$
1,169,587 $
(1,169,587)
19
2035
$
899,554 $
1,302,196 $
(402,642) $
$
1,192,978 $
(1,192,978)
20
2036
$
917,545 $
1,328,240 $
(410,695) $
$
1,216,838 $
(1,216,838)
21
2037
$
935,896 $
1,354,805 $
(418,909) $
$
1,241,175 $
(1,241,175)
22
2038
$
954,614 $
1,381,901 $
(427,287) $
$
1,265,998 $
(1,265,998)
23
2039
$
973,706 $
1,409,539 $
(435,832) $
$
1,291,318 $
(1,291,318)
24
2040
$
993,180 $
1,437,730 $
(444,549) $
$
1,317,145 $
(1,317,145)
25
2041
$
1,013,044 $
1,466,484 $
(453,440) $
$
1,343,487 $
(1,343,487)
Average Annual
$
(150,185)
$
(907,871)
Total
$
(3,754,634)
$
(22,696,782)
$
(814,572)
$
(13,390,693)
Net Present Value
Source: Camoin Associates
Note: Net Present Value calculation assumes a 3.50% discount rate.
*Does not include any property tax payments or PILOT
Page 2 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Introduction Camoin Associates was commissioned by Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency (the “IDA”) to conduct an economic and fiscal impact study of a proposed waterfront development (the “Project”) in the City of Glen Cove. The Project is proposed to be built by RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC (the “Company”) on the north side of Glen Cove Creek along Garvies Point Road (the “Site”). The Project will be completed over a period of approximately five years and the following report calculates the impact of the full project as completed, phased in, and occupied. Full build out of the Project will consist of 1,110 residential units, including 513 market rate condo units, 486 market rate rental units, 56 workforce condo units and 55 workforce rental units. In addition to the residential units, the Project includes a marina, restaurant, retail space, and commercial space. Full occupancy is expected by year 8. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of the Project on the local economy and on the fiscal resources of the City of Glen Cove and the Glen Cove School District. Note that an analysis was also conducted on the impact of the Project on Nassau County and that is included as Attachment C. Data and information used in this study were gathered from various sources, including: 









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The Company provided all technical information regarding the Project, including a description of the planned uses at the Project, the estimated assessed value of the Project upon completion, a description of the ancillary uses, the estimated residential types, and estimated building and plumbing permit fees. Camoin Associates used the economic input‐output model provided by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) to determine the economic impact of the Project on the local economy. The City of Glen Cove 2015 adopted budget supplied budget data for the various departments that provide services to City residents. The City of Glen Cove assessor provided the current assessed value for the City broken down by property class code. The Glen Cove Police Department, Glen Cove Fire Department, and the Glen Cove Volunteer EMS service provider provided information on the annual number of police, fire and emergency medical calls in the City and made a determination as to what, if any, impact the Project might have on the cost of public safety services available to City residents. (See Attachment B for information from emergency service providers). The Glen Cove City School District Assistant Superintendent for Business offered her opinion on the impact of the Project on the School District (See Attachment B). Summary of Proposed Utility Demands report completed by Paulus, Sokolowski and Sartor Engineering, PC (7/28/2011) was reviewed Real Property Assessment Analysis prepared by Standard Valuation Services “Multifamily Housing on Long Island: Its Impact on Numbers of School‐Age Children & School District Finances” by Pearl M. Kamer, Ph.D. “School‐Aged Children Generation Analysis, Long Island, NY” by Freudenthal & Elkowitz Consulting Group, Inc. prepared for AvalonBay Communities. “Residential Demographic Multipliers – Estimates of Occupants of New Housing” by Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy Research. June 2006 Page 3 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Project Details The table below lists the various land uses and building types that will be included in the Project upon full build out. Residential land uses will be the majority of the land use and will account for nearly 95% of the Project’s total square footage. Total Project Size
Total Units
Net Rentable Square
Feet
1,110
1,222,062
94%
Market Rate Condo
513
662,311
51%
Market Rate Rental
Use Type
All Residential
Percent of Project
Square Footage
486
461,299
36%
Workforce Condo
56
50,194
4%
Workforce Rental
55
48,258
4%
Retail/Marina (sq ft)
NA
18,600
1%
Commercial (sq ft)
NA
50,000
4%
Restaurant (sq ft)
NA
6,400
0%
1,297,062
100%
Total Project Size
Source: Developer, Camoin Associates
The Company estimates that the Project will be occupied as follows: Project Occupancy Projections
Year
Project Occupancy
1
2017
0%
2
2018
0%
3
2019
10%
4
2020
40%
5
2021
50%
6
2022
60%
7
2023
75%
8
2024
100%
As a result of the Project, the citywide assessed value will increase substantially. The parcels in question for development of the Project are currently assessed at $11,736,400. Upon full build out, the parcels are estimated to be assessed at $241,340,000 (based on the May 27, 2015 Real Property Assessment Analysis completed by Standard Valuation Services), for a change in assessed value of $229,603,600. The 2015 citywide assessed value is $4.56 billion and therefore the $229.6 million change in assessed value is equal to a 5.03% increase in overall citywide assessed value. Percent Change in City Assessed Value After Full Build Out
Current City Assessed Value (2015)
$
4,564,459,499
Change in Assessed Value of Property
$
229,603,600
Assessed Value After Full Build Out
$
4,794,063,099
% Change in Assessed Value
5.03%
Source: Camoin Associates, City Assessor
Page 4 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Economic Impact Analysis Introduction The following analysis estimates the one‐
time and permanent (annual) economic impacts of the Project on the City of Glen Cove resulting from new jobs being created at the Site as well as new household spending. Note that for this analysis, the Study Area is defined as the 11542 ZIP code, as that is the smallest level for which impact data is available. The map to the right shows the Project location (blue pin), the City of Glen Cove (black outline) and the 11542 zip code (red polygon).1 Throughout the economic impact section of this report, the above defined Study Area is a proxy for the City of Glen Cove and when the term “City” is used it is referring to the Study Area. See Attachment A for more information on economic impact analysis. Construction Phase Impacts The Company anticipates that construction of the Project will occur over a five year period at a total cost of approximately $512,910,000 (excluding land and soft costs). On average, construction costs per year will total $102,582,000. Estimated Construction Costs
Total Construction Costs
$
Average Annual Constructions Costs (5 years)
$
512,910,000
102,582,000
As calculated above, there will be approximately $102.6 million in net new annual spending associated with the construction of the Project (direct impact). In addition, indirect impacts occur as the dollars from direct impacts cycle through the economy. In other words, the additional construction spending sales will create new jobs. Those employees will receive wages and in turn spend a portion of those dollars in the local economy for daily needs, housing and other expenses. A proportion of those dollars are again re‐
1
The economic input‐output data in this report were obtained for a study area comprised of the 11542 ZIP code from Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (EMSI). Such data are not available based on municipal boundaries, but due to the nature of economic impact modeling, the ZIP code data serve as the closest proxy available. EMSI data are compiled from several sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Departments of Health and Labor using specialized proprietary processes and models to estimate the economic impact of various sectors on a pre‐
determined study area. Page 5 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 spent in the local economy. The indirect impacts of the new spending at the Project will result in a total of 466 new jobs, $104.7 million in sales, and $36 million in annual earnings, as shown in the table below. Economic Impact of the Construction Phase
Direct
Indirect
Total
Sales
$ 102,582,000 $
2,117,680 $ 104,699,680
Jobs
457
9
466
Earnings $
35,916,445 $
359,164 $
36,275,609
Source: EMSI, Camoin Associates
These jobs would last for the duration of the Project’s construction, namely five years. Note that the indirect jobs will be spread out over a wide geographic area, and not only located in the City of Glen Cove. Operation Phase Annual Impacts Net New Economic Activity As described above, the proposed Project will include residential units, retail, marina, and commercial space. The economic activity associated with the Project includes all employment associated with the retail and marina space, the commercial space, the restaurant, plus the new households. Based on the fact that the Project will be a unique destination, Camoin Associates assumes that the Project will attract new companies and businesses that otherwise would not have located in the City. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis, Camoin Associates assumes that 100% of employment on‐site will be “net new” to the City.2 The following table shows total expected on‐site employment upon full occupancy.3 Economic Activity
Total Households
Total Employment
Retail and Marina
Commercial
Restaurant
1,110
222
31
143
48
Source: Camoin Associates, Industry Standards
Economic Impact Following construction, the occupation of the Project will result in new economic activity in the form of employment on‐site. The following section outlines the annual economic impact of the Project on the City of Glen Cove and surrounding areas. The indirect impacts are those that occur as the dollars from direct impacts cycle through the economy. For example, the new employees receive wages and in turn spend a portion of those dollars in the local economy for daily needs, housing and other expenses, and a proportion of those dollars are again re‐spent in the local economy (See Attachment A for more details). 2
Camoin Associates conducted a retail leakage analysis, a review of the current real estate market in Glen Cove, and reviewed the project details to determine the percent of the employment on‐site that would be net new to the City. The project is unique in that it will be located on the waterfront, will be brand new construction, and will be a large‐scale mixed use project. Current retail vacancy rates in the City are well below the average for Nassau County and the office space vacancy rate in the City is slightly lower than the average for Nassau County. Since there are no other similar type of developments in the City and the current retail and commercial vacancy rate is low in the City, it is reasonable to assume that it would attract unique types of retailers and office tenants who otherwise would look outside of the City to locate. 3
Camoin Associates employed industry standards to calculate new jobs created on‐site. Page 6 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 As those dollars continue to circulate, additional jobs and business activity are created. This effect is captured in the indirect impacts. Impact of New Households In order to determine the annual economic impact of the residential portion of the Project on the City, the first step was to calculate the number of residents that can be considered “net new” to the City’s economy. In other words, the number of residents that, but for the Project, would not exist in Glen Cove. With respect to this Project, net new households are those that otherwise would be obligated to leave Glen Cove in order to find appropriate housing or would choose not to reside in Glen Cove. Due to the unique nature of this Project and the high demand for condos and rental units in Glen Cove and on Long Island in general, this analysis assumes that all 1,110 households are net new to the City. This is based on conversations with local real estate agents, a review of census data (see table below, demonstrating very low vacancy rates), and an understanding of the proposed Project marketing. Glen Cove Vacancy Rate
City of Glen Cove Total Vacancy Rate
City of Glen Cove Rental Vacancy Rate
Source: ESRI
5.70%
4.90%
The Project consists of 1,110 total units. Of these units, 111 would be workforce units, that is, made available to tenants whose annual income is less than 130% of the Adjusted Median Income for Nassau County. The remaining 999 units would be market rate. New residents would make purchases in the City, thereby adding new dollars to the Glen Cove economy. For this analysis, Camoin Associates researched spending patterns by household income to differentiate the spending by workforce rate tenants versus market rate tenants. The Glen Cove median household income is $69,4294. It is assumed that all new residents paying market rents would have a higher income than the City median household income because of the price points of market rate units. It is estimated that the average household income for households occupying the market rate units will be approximately $125,000. For all new households occupying workforce apartments, it is assumed that their household income would be 120% of the median income or $83,314.5 Using a spending basket for the region which details household spending in individual consumer categories by income level, Camoin Associates analyzed the likely spending by these two groups of tenants on a variety of categories, shown in the first column.6 The second column in the table below shows the total spending for both workforce rate households and market rate households by category. For total expenditures, the residents’ total spending basket was halved to account for (a) spending outside of the City which would not impact the City’s economy and, (b) spending at the Project which is being counted in the on‐site jobs impact. The third column shows the total amount spent in the City per unit. 4 www.census.gov (2012) 5 While 130% of AMI reflects the maximum limit, in reality the median income of households in those units will be less. For the purposes of this analysis we assume income will be 120% AMI on average. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Expenditure Survey 2010.
Page 7 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Tenant Annual Spending Baskets
Market Rate Units: Average Income of $124,848
Annual Spending
Amount Spent in Number of Net New
Category
Basket
City (50%)
Market Rate Units
Food
$
10,084 $
5,042
999
Apparel and Services
$
2,860 $
1,430
999
House Keeping Supplies
$
994 $
497
999
Transportation
$
14,908 $
7,454
999
Healthcare
$
5,797 $
2,899
999
Entertainment
$
4,524 $
2,262
999
Education
$
2,238 $
1,119
999
Household Furnishings & Equipment
$
2,586 $
1,293
999
Miscellaneous
$
1,148 $
574
999
Annual Discretionary Spending
$
45,139 $
22,570
Workforce Units: Average Income of $83,314
Annual Spending
Amount Spent in Number of Net New
Category
Basket
City (50%)
Affordable Units
Food
$6,252 $
3,126
111
$1,773 $
887
111
$616 $
308
111
Transportation
$9,243 $
4,621
111
Healthcare
$3,594 $
1,797
111
Entertainment
$2,805 $
1,402
111
Education
$1,388 $
694
111
Household Furnishings & Equipment
$1,603 $
802
111
Miscellaneous
$712 $
356
111
$
27,985 $
19,590
Total Net New City Spending
Total Net New City
Spending
$
5,036,958
$
1,428,570
$
496,503
$
7,446,546
$
2,895,602
$
2,259,738
$
1,117,881
$
1,291,707
$
573,426
$
22,546,931
Total Net New City
Spending
$
346,979
$
98,409
$
34,202
$
512,967
$
199,468
$
155,666
$
77,007
$
88,981
$
39,501
$
1,553,180
$
24,100,111
Source: Note that spending basket of Workforce Units calculated by applying the percent spent by households on each category to the average
household income of $83,314
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Camoin Associates
The total net new spending in the City was calculated by multiplying the amount spent in the City by the number of net new units. As shown in the table above, spending in the City by all new households would total over $24 million. Camoin Associates used the above spending basket amounts to calculate the direct, indirect and total impact of the Project on the City. To analyze the impact of the Project on Glen Cove, the total spending is broken down into a variety of NAICS codes that capture the spending habits of a typical resident. Using $24.1 million as the new sales input, Camoin Associates employed EMSI to determine the indirect and total impact of the Project. The following table outlines the findings of this analysis. Sales
Jobs
Earnings
Economic Impact of Household Spending
Direct
Indirect
$24,100,111
$1,361,946
315
6
$9,769,173
$390,767
Total
$25,462,056
321
$10,159,940
Impact of On‐Site Employment The figure for direct employment generated by the Project was used as the input into the EMSI economic impact model (direct impact). The EMSI model allows the analyst to break down the total jobs by NAICS code to get an accurate read for how one job in a specific sector impacts the rest of the local economy. The table below shows the total impacts of net new jobs on the City when the indirect effect of additional spending by local businesses and employees are considered. Page 8 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Sales
Jobs
Earnings
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Economic Impact of On-site Employment
Direct
Indirect
$24,600,194
$555,073
222
4
$11,792,731
$235,855
Total
$25,155,267
226
$12,028,586
As stated above, there will be an estimated 222 new positions created at the Project (direct impact). The indirect impacts of the new jobs at the Project (upon full occupancy) will result in an estimated total of 226 new jobs and over $12 million in annual earnings generated in the Study Area, as shown in the table above. Total Economic Impact of Operation The annual combined sales, jobs and earnings impact of the Project on Glen Cove upon full occupancy is shown in the table below: Economic Impact of Household Spending
Direct
Indirect
Total
Sales
$
24,100,111 $
1,361,946 $
25,462,056
Jobs
315
6
321
Earnings $
9,769,173 $
390,767 $
10,159,940
Economic Impact of On-site Employment
Direct
Indirect
Total
Sales
$
24,600,194 $
555,073 $
25,155,267
Jobs
222
4
226
Earnings $
11,792,731 $
235,855 $
12,028,586
Total Economic Impact
Direct
Indirect
Total
Sales
$
48,700,305 $
1,917,019 $
50,617,323
Jobs
537
10
547
Earnings $
21,561,904 $
626,622 $
22,188,526
Page 9 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Fiscal Impact Analysis The following analysis examines the impact the Project will have on the fiscal resources of the City of Glen Cove and the Glen Cove City School District. See Attachment C for the estimated impact on Nassau County. Impact on City and Districts The following sections review the estimated impact of the Project on the City’s revenues (excluding property tax payments) and expenses. 7 City General Fund Revenue Sales Tax Annual Impact One revenue source for the City is the sales tax revenue that the City receives through the Local Government Assistance (LGA) Program transfers from the County. In Nassau County, sales tax is collected by the County and then distributed to the towns and cities based on population, and the apportionment is reevaluated following the release of the decennial census. The increase in the City’s population as a result of the Project will increase the City’s portion of the County’s population from 2.01% to approximately 2.18% (based on 2,329 additional people living in the City). The County’s population is projected to increase by 0.174% as a result of the Project and it is assumed that the amount of sales tax received by the County (to then be distributed) would increase by that percent as well. The following table calculates the impact of the Project on the City’s sales tax revenue, holding all else constant. It is estimated that the City will receive an additional $119,120 in annual sales tax revenue distributions from Nassau County. Annual Impact of the Project on City Sales Tax Revenue
Current
City Population (2010 Census)
County (2010 Census)
Percent of County Population Attributable to City
Local Government Assistance (2015)
$
Percent of Local Government Assistance Distributed to City
Glen Cove Distribution (projection based on NC LGA budget)
Full Build Out
26,964
29,293
1,339,532
1,341,861
2.01%
2.18%
68,501,853 $
Change
8.639%
0.174%
-
68,620,973
2.01%
$
% Increase (Current
to Full Build Out)
0.174%
2.18%
-
1,378,902 $
1,498,023
-
$
119,120
-
Source: Nassau County 2015 Adopted Budget, Glen Cove 2015 Adopted Budget, Camoin Associates
Water Revenue The Developer anticipates that the Project will use 345,781 gallons of water per day and generate 314,347 gallons of sewer per day. The City’s Water Department has stated that there is adequate capacity at the City to accommodate this Project. The City charges for water as follows: Water Rates 
0‐15,000 gallons/month: $2.60/1,000 gallons 7
Note that throughout this report there may be some calculations that are off slightly due to rounding. Page 10 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency 

Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 15,001‐30,000 gallons/month: $2.95/1,000 gallons 30,001+: $3.25/1,000 gallons Based on the Developer’s expected water usage and the City’s fee schedule, the Project will generate nearly $404,400 for the City. Public Works Department Revenue
Water Use
Daily Use
345,781
Monthly Use (30 days)
10,373,430
Monthly Payment
$
33,699
Annual Payment
$
404,393
Source: City of Glen Cove Public Works Department,
Developer, Camoin Associates
Note that Nassau County handles the sewage for the City of Glen Cove and therefore any revenue associated with it would benefit the County (see Attachment C). Other City Revenue The City has a number of other revenue sources that are likely to change as a result of the change in population and economic activity after the Project is complete. These other variable revenues are summarized in the table below. A1410-41255
A1410-41257
A1410-41259
A1410-42508
A1410-42509
A1410-42542
A1490-42120
A1490-42189
A1490-42560
A8160-42130
A8160-42135
A3630-42670
A6772-42050
A7035-42050
A7050-42070
A7050-42080
A7050-42705
A7050-43580
A7050-43820
A7050-43827
A7050-43828
General Fund Variable Revenue
City Clerk
Marriage Licenses
Marriage Certificates
Birth & Death Certificate
Garage Sale Permits
Gambling Licenses & Fees
Dog Licenses
Public Works
Tree Removal Fees
Lot Cleanup Fees
Street Opening Permits
Commercial Garbage
Recycling Fees
Code Enforcement
Misc. Fines & Fees
Senior Center
Participants
Participant Contributions
Youth Bureau
Private Organization Grants
Fees For After 3 Program
Summer Camp Fees
State Aid
Youth Outreach Prog. Cda
CMPRH Youth Program/Nassau
Mentoring Prog.
Page 11 $
$
$
$
$
$
1,500
4,700
42,000
2,500
400
3,000
$
$
$
$
$
3,000
3,000
40,000
80,000
40,000
$
85,000
$
$
54,000
40,000
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
15,000
129,000
17,750
12,667
7,000
70,887
12,500
Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 A7050-44820
Federal Aid
$
5,301
Misc Budget Items
A7500-41750
Bus Receipts
$
3,000
A7500-42045
Pistol Range Receipts
$
12,000
Golf Course
CR7180-41610 Golf Course Greens
$
270,000
CR7180-41620 Golf Course Permit-res
$
120,000
CR7180-41630 Golf Course Cart Fees
$
165,000
CR7180-41640 Golf Course Range Fees
$
CR7180-41650 G.c.harrison House Fees
$
5,000
CR7180-41655 Golf Course Outing Fees
$
75,000
CR7180-41660 Golf Course Misc. Fees
$
25,000
CR7180-41665 Twilight Golf Fees
$
90,000
CR7180-42410 Rental Of City Property
$
51,900
Recreation Fund
CR7140-42004 Day Camp Registration
$
180,000
CR7140-42012 Rental Refreshment
$
3,000
CR7140-42040 Boat Ramp Fees
$
4,500
CR7140-42089 Recreation Building Fees
$
1,000
CR7140-42410 Rental Of City Property
$
60,000
CR7140-42770 Misc Revenues
$
1,000
Police Department
PD3120-41230
Stop-dwi
$
12,000
PD3120-41998
Probationers
$
1,000
PD3120-42210
City Court Parking Fines
$
325,000
PD3120-42502
Vendors Licenses
$
500
PD3120-42503
Registration Taxi Cabs
$
4,000
PD3120-42504
Tow Truck Registration
$
2,000
PD3120-42510
Impound Admin Fee
$
20,000
PD3120-42511
Auction Licenses
$
3,000
PD3120-42512
Second Hand Dealers Lic.
$
400
PD3120-42520
Police Dept. Report Fees
$
12,000
PD3120-42521
Finger Print Fees
$
750
PD3120-42770
Misc Revenues
$
200
Total Variable Revenue
$
2,116,455
Source: City 2015 Adopted Budget
Note: Does not include State Aid per Capita or Property Tax Payments
Using total citywide assessed value and the estimated 5.03% increase in assessed value as a result of the Project, Camoin Associates estimates that upon full occupancy, the Project will generate approximately $106,463 in new variable revenues (of those revenues listed in the table above). This calculation is shown in the following table. Annual Impact on City Variable Revenue - Full Occupancy
Total City Variable Revenues
$
2,116,455
% Change in Assessed Value from Project
5.03%
Total Increase in Variable Revenues
$
106,463
Page 12 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Total Non‐Real Estate Tax Related Revenue Change The following table adds all of the annual non‐real estate tax related revenue expected to be generated as a result of the Project (totaling nearly $630,000) and breaks it out based on the land use types. Total Annual Change in Revenue (Full Occupancy) - Not Including Property
Sales Tax Revenue
$
Water Fund Revenue
$
Variable Revenue
$
Total Miscellaneous Revenue
$
Attributable to Residential (94%)
$
Attributable to Retail, Commercial, Restaurant (6%)
$
Tax
119,120
404,393
106,463
629,976
592,177
37,799 Note that the Company will also pay the City over $5.3 million in permitting fees and plumbing permit fees. General Fund Expense Variable Expenses Similar to the variable revenues calculated in the previous section, there are also variable expenses to the City which will be impacted by the Project (excluding police, volunteer fire, EMS, and water expenses, which are estimated separately below). These variable City expenses are summarized in the table below. General Fund Variable Expenses
City Council
A1010-55438
Contractual Services
$
80,000
Printing & Office
$
$
40,000
80,000
A1220-54360
A1220-54370
A1220-55425
Finance
Printing & Office
Postage
Pubs & Legal Notices
$
$
$
15,000
36,000
7,000
A1310-54360
A1310-55438
A1310-55443
City Clerk
Printing & Office
Technical Services
$
$
$
13,000
57,500
56,000
A1410-54360
A1410-55442
City Attorney
Printing & Office
Training
$
$
7,500
1,000
A1420-54360
Printing & Office
A1420-55443
Technical Services
A1420-55492
Legal Fees
A1420-55493
Legal Fees-special
Personnel
A1425-54360
Printing & Office
A1425-55442
Training
Public Works Admin
$
$
$
10,000
2,000
200,000
-
$
$
2,000
3,000
A1490-54320
$
80,000
Mayor
A1210-54360
A1210-55438
City Hall
Utilities
Page 13 $
Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 A1490-54324
General Supplies
A1490-54360
Printing & Office
A1490-55407
Equip. Service & rental
A1490-55420
Repairs & Maint.
A1490-55438
A1490-55443
Technical Services
DPW Garage
A1640-54301
Auto Supplies
A1640-54320
Utilities
A1640-54321
Fuel
A1640-55420
Repairs & Maint.
Traffic Patrol Officers
$
$
$
$
$
$
35,000
8,400
3,500
35,000
210,000
12,000
$
$
$
$
12,000
53,000
350,000
35,000
A3310-52230
Equip Replacement
$
1,000
A3310-54320
A3310-54324
A3310-54360
A3310-55420
Dept of Bldgs
A3620-54324
A3620-54360
A3620-55420
A3620-55438
A3620-55442
Code Enforcement
Utilities
General Supplies
Printing & Office
Repairs & Maintenance
$
$
$
$
7,500
7,000
500
8,000
General Supplies
Printing & Office
Repairs And Maintenance
Training
$
$
$
$
$
4,800
3,500
1,500
6,000
2,000
A3630-54360
A3630-55438
A3630-55442
DPW Roads
Printing & Office
Training
$
$
$
4,000
45,000
2,000
A5110-54301
Auto Supplies
$
40,000
A5110-54324
General Supplies
$
190,000
A5110-54380
Street Lighting
$
210,000
A5110-54381
St. Lighting Contractors
$
85,000
A5110-55420
Repairs & Maint.
$
95,000
A5110-55442
Safety Training & Equip
$
2,000
A5110-55491
Snow Removal
$
200,000
A5720-52230
Equip Replacement
$
7,500
A5720-54320
Utilities
$
3,000
A5720-54321
Fuel
$
10,000
A5720-54324
General Supplies
$
6,000
A5720-54360
Printing & Office
$
1,000
A5720-55420
Repairs & Maint.
$
8,000
A6772-54310
Food
$
127,645
A7030-54324
General Supplies
$
10,000
A7030-54360
Printing & Office
$
3,500
A7030-55420
Repairs & Maint.
$
20,000
Harbor Patrol
Senior Center
Page 14 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 A7030-55438
$
22,027
A7035-55438
$
18,340
A7036-54324
General Supplies
$
3,500
A7036-54360
Printing & Office
$
2,000
A7036-54370
Postage
$
735
A7036-55420
Repairs & Maint.
$
3,000
A7036-55438
$
660
Youth Bureau
A7050-52230
Equip Replacement
$
500
A7050-54320
Utilities
$
9,000
A7050-54324
General Supplies
A7050-54360
Printing & Office
$
$
1,000
2,500
A7050-54370
Postage
$
100
A7050-55410
Membership Fees
$
700
A7050-55411
Travel
$
8,000
A7050-55416
Telephone
$
2,000
A7050-55420
Repairs & Maint.
A7050-55438
$
$
1,000
1,680
A7050-55447
Youth Outreach Program
A7050-55448
Compreh. Yth Program
$
$
1,800
20,000
A7050-55449
Mentoring
$
1,800
A7050-55450
After 3 Program Expenses
$
74,000
A7050-55950
General Miscellaneous
$
500
Misc Budget Items
A7500-55500
Bus Services
$
150,000
A7500-55501
Courthouse Mtce.
$
9,000
A7500-55551
Veteran's Services
$
7,280
A7500-55552
G.c.s.a.f.e.
$
50,000
A7500-55553
Beautification Program
$
20,000
A7500-55557
Bands & Celebrations
$
65,000
A7500-55558
Shooting Range
$
10,000
A7500-55559
Zoning Board Of Appeals
$
5,500
A7500-55939
Tree Restoration
$
3,500
City Planning Commission
A8020-54360
Printing & Office
$
300
A8020-55438
$
7,500
A8020-55441
Transcription Services
$
12,000
A8160-54324
General Supplies
$
50,000
A8160-54360
Printing & Office
$
1,000
A8160-55420
Repairs & Maint.
$
60,000
A8160-55438
$
1,460,342
A8160-55442
Safety & Training Equip
$
1,500
Sanitation
Page 15 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Total Variable Expenses
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 $
4,643,109
Source: City 2015 Adopted Budget
Camoin Associates estimates that the Project will generate approximately $233,560 in new variable expenses upon full occupancy. This calculation is shown in the following table. Annual Impact on City Variable Expenses - Full Occupancy
Total City Variable Expenses
$ 4,643,109
5.03%
Total Increase in Variable Expenses
$
233,560
Glen Cove Police Department Police services are provided by the City of Glen Cove Police Department. The Department’s service area is confined to City limits and all of the approximately $13 million 2015 annual budget is funded by the City General Fund. The Police Department currently has 51 full‐time officers including a chief, deputy chief, 3 lieutenants, 8 sergeants, 6 detectives and 32 officers. The Police Department’s only facility is the police station located at 1 Bridge Street, Glen Cove, NY. In order to determine the possible impact that the Project might have on the level of police services that the Department provides to City residents, Camoin Associates interviewed Police Chief William Whitton. According to Chief Whitton, on average the Department receives 17,675 calls a year, resulting in approximately 2,100 case reports (requiring follow‐up), and 455 arrests. Chief Whitton estimated that the additional residents and activity resulting from the Project would require the Department to possibly add between 1 and 3 additional full time police officers to the force to handle increased call volumes and to properly patrol the area. The approximately 2 additional staff would result in a 4% increase in employment by the Police Department and would result in a proportional increase in salaries, wages, fringe benefits, and general expenses. Based on the Chief’s middle‐line case expectation that the Project would result in a 4% increase in employment, the Project will cost the City of Glen Cove an additional $500,335 per year in police services. Note that the Chief reported that the Project will have no impact on the use of ancillary detectives or support from the Nassau County Superior Officers Association. Police Staffing Expenses (Full Occupancy)
Current Police Department Employment
Increase in Officers as Result of Project
Percent Increase in Police Department Employment
Total Police Fund Expenses*
$
Percent Increase in Police Deparment Expenses
Total Increased Police Costs
$
51
2
4%
12,758,537
4%
500,335
Source: City of Glen Cove Police Department
*Does not include health insurance costs totaling $950,000 for police retirees.
Glen Cove Volunteer Fire Department The Glen Cove Volunteer Fire Department (“Fire Department”) is an all‐volunteer fire squad that provides fire protection services to all of the City of Glen Cove. The Fire Department prepares a budget on an annual basis which is then forwarded to the City for consideration, revision, and adoption as part of the City’s general fund. There is no special tax for fire protection services, and all funds come from the City General Fund. Page 16 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 The Fire Department has approximately 120 volunteers. That includes one chief, three assistant chiefs, 4 captains, 8 lieutenants, and 4 dispatchers. There is one fire station located at 10 Glen Cove Avenue in Glen Cove. The Fire Department has six engines, 1 ladder truck, 1 rescue vehicle, 4 chief cars, and 1 fire police truck. The Fire Department responds to fires, alarms, and assists the Glen Cove Police Department with certain situations that involve opening locked doors such as checking on the well‐being of residents. The Fire Department responded to 669 fire calls in 20138. Camoin Associates interviewed Chief Joseph Solomito to gain an understanding of how the Project might impact the level of fire protection services provided to City residents. Chief Solomito felt that, although call volume will likely increase, the types and number of calls could be adequately handled by existing volunteers and equipment. Based on the experience of Chief Solomito, he estimates that the number of fire calls will increase proportional to the increase in Citywide assessed value as a result of full occupancy of the Project. In order to calculate the number and cost implications of the new fire calls each year, Camoin Associates analyzed the Fire Department’s 2015 annual budget (part of the City of Glen Cove’s 2015 adopted budget) and determined the items that are variable costs that are likely to change with a change in call volume. The variable costs do not include personnel or debt service expenses because it is not anticipated that any new equipment purchases or new personnel will be needed as a result of the Project. The Fire Department’s 2015 budget reported $205,500 in variable costs. Based on 669 fire calls per year, that is equal to $307.17 in variable costs per fire call. Based on a 5.03% increase in citywide assessed value resulting from the Project, that will equal 34 additional calls per year at a total cost of $10,337 per year. Fire Variable Expenses (Full Occupancy)
General Supplies
$
Printing and Office
$
Postage
$
Equipment Service & Rental
$
$
$
Training
$
Total Variable Expenses
$
Total Calls
Variable Expense Per Call
$
Current Call Volume (2013)
Change in Assessed Value
Increase in Calls
Total Increased Fire Costs
$
38,000
3,500
2,000
7,000
85,000
40,000
30,000
205,500
669
307.17
669
5.03%
34
10,337
Source: Glen Cove Volunteer Fire Department, Glen Cove 2015 Budget, Camoin
Associates
Glen Cove Volunteer EMS Corps Emergency Medical Service (EMS) is provided to the City of Glen Cove by the Glen Cove Volunteer EMS Corps (“EMS Corps”). EMS Corps’ service area includes all of the City of Glen Cove. The EMS Corps operates out of a station at 8 Glen Cove Avenue, Glen Cove, NY. The EMS Corps is primarily funded by the City’s general fund and has approximately 60 volunteers and 4 full time and 8 part time paid staff. The current staffing allows for two paid staff during the day and one 8
Chief Solomito confirmed in July 2015 that this information is still accurate, including the annual call volume. Page 17 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 paid staff during the night shift. They have 3 advanced life support ambulances, 1 basic life support ambulance, 3 chief cars, 4 emergency ambulance service vehicles, 1 special event trailer, and 1 medically equipped gator. The EMS Corps responds to an average of 3,000 calls per year. In order to determine what kind of impact the Project might have on the EMS Corps, Camoin Associates interviewed Chief Thomas Kenary, Jr. Based on the information available, Mr. Kenary felt that the Project would require the EMS Corps to trade in a Basic Life Support Ambulance for an Advanced Life Support Ambulance and buy a new Advanced Life Support Ambulance to replace an older model. Additionally, they would have to add on to their current building to house the Advanced Life Support Ambulance to provide it with a climate controlled garage facility.9 Finally, Mr. Kenary believes that the Project will require one additional paid staffer to handle the increase in call volume and to support the overnight staff. Camoin Associates analyzed the EMS Corps’ 2015 annual budget (part of the City of Glen Cove’s 2015 adopted budget) and determined the items that are variable costs that are likely to change with a change in call volume and staffing. The EMS Corps’ 2015 budget reported $393,962 in staff costs for the 8 full time equivalent staff members, for an average of $49,245 per employee. The budget also reported $263,000 in variable expenses for the EMS Corps. Assuming that the variable expenses will increase proportionally to the increase in staff, Camoin Associates assumes that total variable expenses will increase by approximately $32,875 as a result of the Project. Camoin Associates also made some assumptions related to the cost of purchasing two new Advanced Life Support Ambulances and building renovation as suggested by Mr. Kenary. In total, the EMS Corps will face $106,137 in additional expenses as a result of the Project. 9
Note that the cost of the vehicles and the building renovation were not available at the time of this report. For planning purposes, Camoin Associates assumed that each vehicle would cost $150,000 and the building renovation would cost $100,000. Page 18 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 EMS Variable Expenses (Full Occupancy)
Additional Staff
Salaries
Current Staffing (FTE)
Average Salary per Staff
Additional Staff as a Result of Project
% Increase in Staff Capacity
Cost of Project on EMS Salary
Variable and Hard Expenses
Equipment Replacement
Uilities
General Supplies
Medical Supplies
Printing & Office
Equipment Service & Rental
Telephone
Inspection/Installation
Training
Total Variable EMS Expenses
% Increase in Staff Capacity
Cost of Project on EMS Variable Expenses
Debt Service on Vehicle Purchases*
Debt Service on Building Renovation**
Cost of Project on EMS Hard Costs Expenses
Total Impact of Project on EMS Expenses
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
393,962
8
49,245
1
13%
49,245
20,000
25,000
12,000
40,000
3,000
30,000
7,500
35,000
8,000
80,000
2,500
263,000
13%
32,875
18,017
6,000
24,017
106,137
Source: Glen Cove Volunteer EMS Corps, Glen Cove 2015 Budget, Camoin
Associates
*Assumes two vehicles purchased for $150,000 with a 10 year loan at 6% interest
**Assumes building renovation will cost $100,000 with a 30 year loan at 6%
interest
Water Fund Expense The Water Department currently processes an average of 1.44 billion gallons per year and has stated that the 9% increase in use (as projected by the Developer) could be accommodated but that there would be a subsequent increase in cost related to operations. The following table calculates that the impact of the Project on Water Fund expenses will be $61,376. Impact on Water Fund - Full Occupancy
F8300-52230
Equip Replacement
$
40,000
F8300-54309
Chemicals
$
120,000
F8300-54320
Utilities
$
420,000
F8300-54324
General Supplies
$
130,000
Total Variable Costs
$
710,000
Current Water Pumped Per Year
1,440,000,000
Projected Water Use at Project
124,481,160
Percent Change in Water Use
9%
Change in Variable Costs to Water Fund
$
61,376
Source: City 2015 Adopted Budget, Water Department, Developer, Camoin Associates
Page 19 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – June 2016 Total City Expense Change The following table lists all of the incremental city costs expected to be incurred as a result of the Project as calculated above. Based on the analysis, Camoin Associates estimates that the Project will generate $911,745 in new expenses. These new costs are summarized in the table below. Total Annual Change in Expenses (Full Occupancy)
Variable Expenses
$
Police Expenses
$
Fire Expenses
$
EMS Expenses
$
Water Fund Expenses
$
Total
$
Attributable to Residential (94%)
$
Attributable to Retail, Commercial, Restaurant (6%)
$
Page 20 233,560
500,335
10,337
106,137
61,376
911,745
857,040
54,705 RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC _____ Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Net Impact to the City City Miscellaneous Revenue The following table shows the non‐real estate tax related revenue that are expected to be generated as the Project reaches full occupancy and beyond. Using the revenue generated by the Project upon full occupancy as calculated above, Camoin Associates inflated the revenue at a rate of 2%10 annually. Using the inflated revenues, Camoin Associates multiplied the revenue associated with each land use by the percent of that land use occupied per year. Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
Annual Revenue Generated From Start of Construction Through Full Occupancy- Not Including Property Tax Payments
Full Occupancy Revenue
Residential
Commercial
Total Revenue Generated
Inflation
Building Permit
Residential Commercial Residential Residential Commercial Commercial
(not including property
Factor
Revenue*
(94%)
(6%)
% Occupied
Revenue
% Occupied
Revenue
tax payments)
1.0000
1.0200
1.0404
1.0612
1.0824
1.1041
1.1262
1.1487
1.1717
1.1951
1.2190
1.2434
1.2682
1.2936
1.3195
1.3459
1.3728
1.4002
1.4282
1.4568
1.4859
1.5157
1.5460
1.5769
1.6084
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
592,177
604,021
616,101
628,423
640,992
653,812
666,888
680,226
693,830
707,707
721,861
736,298
751,024
766,045
781,366
796,993
812,933
829,191
845,775
862,691
879,945
897,543
915,494
933,804
952,480
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
37,799
38,555
39,326
40,112
40,914
41,733
42,567
43,419
44,287
45,173
46,076
46,998
47,938
48,896
49,874
50,872
51,889
52,927
53,986
55,065
56,167
57,290
58,436
59,605
60,797
0%
0%
10%
40%
50%
60%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
61,610
251,369
320,496
392,287
500,166
680,226
693,830
707,707
721,861
736,298
751,024
766,045
781,366
796,993
812,933
829,191
845,775
862,691
879,945
897,543
915,494
933,804
952,480
0%
0%
10%
40%
50%
60%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,933
16,045
20,457
25,040
31,925
43,419
44,287
45,173
46,076
46,998
47,938
48,896
49,874
50,872
51,889
52,927
53,986
55,065
56,167
57,290
58,436
59,605
60,797
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,670,914
2,381,967
13,365
-
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
*Building permit payment schedule provided by the Developer and confirmed by the City. Does not include $1,272,446 that is paid in year 2016.
1,670,914
2,381,967
65,543
280,779
340,953
417,327
532,091
723,644
738,117
752,880
767,937
783,296
798,962
814,941
831,240
847,865
864,822
882,119
899,761
917,756
936,111
954,833
973,930
993,409
1,013,277
10
Camoin Associates has employed a standard annual inflation adjustment of 2% for the City’s revenues and expenses as the actual future changes to the budget are determined by actions of future City Councils and are unknown at this time. Page 21 RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC _____ Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis City Expense Using the same methodology as used to calculate the annual revenue, Camoin Associates estimates the annual city expenses resulting from the Project. Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
Inflation
Factor
1.0000
1.0200
1.0404
1.0612
1.0824
1.1041
1.1262
1.1487
1.1717
1.1951
1.2190
1.2434
1.2682
1.2936
1.3195
1.3459
1.3728
1.4002
1.4282
1.4568
1.4859
1.5157
1.5460
1.5769
1.6084
Annual Expenses Generated From Start of Construction Through Full Occupancy
Full Occupancy Expenses
Residential
Commercial
Expenses
Related to
Residential Commercial Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Public Safety
During
(94%)
(6%)
% Occupied Expenses % Occupied Expenses
Construction*
$ 857,040 $
54,705
0% $
0% $
$
30,840
$ 874,181 $
55,799
0% $
0% $
$
31,457
$ 891,664 $
56,915
10% $
89,166
10% $
5,691 $
32,086
$ 909,498 $
58,053
40% $ 363,799
40% $
23,221 $
32,728
$ 927,688 $
59,214
50% $ 463,844
50% $
29,607 $
33,383
$ 946,241 $
60,398
60% $ 567,745
60% $
36,239 $
$ 965,166 $
61,606
75% $ 723,875
75% $
46,205 $
$ 984,470 $
62,838
100% $ 984,470
100% $
62,838 $
$ 1,004,159 $
64,095
100% $ 1,004,159
100% $
64,095 $
$ 1,024,242 $
65,377
100% $ 1,024,242
100% $
65,377 $
$ 1,044,727 $
66,685
100% $ 1,044,727
100% $
66,685 $
$ 1,065,622 $
68,018
100% $ 1,065,622
100% $
68,018 $
$ 1,086,934 $
69,379
100% $ 1,086,934
100% $
69,379 $
$ 1,108,673 $
70,766
100% $ 1,108,673
100% $
70,766 $
$ 1,130,846 $
72,182
100% $ 1,130,846
100% $
72,182 $
$ 1,153,463 $
73,625
100% $ 1,153,463
100% $
73,625 $
$ 1,176,532 $
75,098
100% $ 1,176,532
100% $
75,098 $
$ 1,200,063 $
76,600
100% $ 1,200,063
100% $
76,600 $
$ 1,224,064 $
78,132
100% $ 1,224,064
100% $
78,132 $
$ 1,248,546 $
79,694
100% $ 1,248,546
100% $
79,694 $
$ 1,273,516 $
81,288
100% $ 1,273,516
100% $
81,288 $
$ 1,298,987 $
82,914
100% $ 1,298,987
100% $
82,914 $
$ 1,324,967 $
84,572
100% $ 1,324,967
100% $
84,572 $
$ 1,351,466 $
86,264
100% $ 1,351,466
100% $
86,264 $
$ 1,378,495 $
87,989
100% $ 1,378,495
100% $
87,989 $
-
Total Expenses
Generated
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
30,840
31,457
126,944
419,748
526,834
603,984
770,079
1,047,308
1,068,254
1,089,619
1,111,412
1,133,640
1,156,313
1,179,439
1,203,028
1,227,088
1,251,630
1,276,663
1,302,196
1,328,240
1,354,805
1,381,901
1,409,539
1,437,730
1,466,484
* Assumes construction activity on-site will result in a slight increase in City public safety costs. Figure based on 5% of increased public safety costs
attributable to the Project. Assumes 2% annual increase.
Page 22 RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Net Impact The following table shows the net impact of the Project on the City excluding any property tax payments. Over the 25 year period, the average annual net impact on the City is $150,028 in new expenses. Net Impact to City Prior to Property Tax Payments
Miscellaneous
Year
Expenses
Net
Revenue
1
2017
$
1,670,914 $
30,840 $
2
2018
$
2,381,967 $
31,457 $
3
2019
$
65,543 $
126,944 $
4
2020
$
280,779 $
419,748 $
5
2021
$
340,953 $
526,834 $
6
2022
$
417,327 $
603,984 $
7
2023
$
532,091 $
770,079 $
8
2024
$
723,644 $
1,047,308 $
9
2025
$
738,117 $
1,068,254 $
10
2026
$
752,880 $
1,089,619 $
11
2027
$
767,937 $
1,111,412 $
12
2028
$
783,296 $
1,133,640 $
13
2029
$
798,962 $
1,156,313 $
14
2030
$
814,941 $
1,179,439 $
15
2031
$
831,240 $
1,203,028 $
16
2032
$
847,865 $
1,227,088 $
17
2033
$
864,822 $
1,251,630 $
18
2034
$
882,119 $
1,276,663 $
19
2035
$
899,761 $
1,302,196 $
20
2036
$
917,756 $
1,328,240 $
21
2037
$
936,111 $
1,354,805 $
22
2038
$
954,833 $
1,381,901 $
23
2039
$
973,930 $
1,409,539 $
24
2040
$
993,409 $
1,437,730 $
25
2041
$
1,013,277 $
1,466,484 $
Average Annual
$
Total
$
Net Present Value
$
Page 23 Impact
1,640,073
2,350,510
(61,402)
(138,969)
(185,880)
(186,657)
(237,988)
(323,664)
(330,137)
(336,740)
(343,475)
(350,344)
(357,351)
(364,498)
(371,788)
(379,224)
(386,808)
(394,544)
(402,435)
(410,484)
(418,694)
(427,067)
(435,609)
(444,321)
(453,207)
(150,028)
(3,750,701)
(812,252)
RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis School District In addition to the City of Glen Cove, the Project will also have an impact on the Glen Cove School District (“School District”). In order to estimate the number of public school aged children (“PSAC”) that would be generated as a result of the Project, Camoin Associates considered a variety of data sources that provide relevant multipliers, including national reports, state reports, and local reports. A study conducted by Pearl M. Kamer, Ph.D. and published in a report titled “Multifamily Housing on Long Island: Its Impact on Numbers of School‐Age Children & School District Finances,” reports that on average in Nassau County there are .16 SAC generated per unit. When only large (over 100 unit) residential complexes in Glen Cove are considered, the number of school aged children generated per unit is 0.04 per unit. However, that includes two condo projects which typically have far fewer children than rental development so in order to use a conservative estimate only the rental complexes were considered to derive the multiplier for Garvies Point. See table below. Project
Glen Cove Complex 1 (Rental)
Glen Cove Complex 3 (Condo)
All Large Complexes
Only Rental Complexes
Average Children Per Glen Cove Unit
Total Units
Children
256
184
146
111
697
440
5
19
4
1
29
24
SAC Multiplier
0.02
0.10
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.05
Source: Kamer Report, Camoin Associates
Considering this information it was determined that the Project would generate 56 new public school aged children upon full occupancy. New School Aged Children
Total Residential Units
1,110
PSAC Per Unit
0.05
Total School Aged Children
56
Source: Developer, Pearl Kamer Report, AvalonBay Communities Report,
Camoin Associates
Camoin Associates conducted additional analysis to confirm the validity of these results using current and recent PSAC data regarding large residential complexes within the City of Glen Cove, data regarding PSAC as they related to different sized units, data regarding PSAC in owner‐occupied units (condos and co‐ops) versus renter‐occupied units, and data regarding the correlation between PSAC generation and higher and lower rental rates. See Attachment D for full methodology details. The results of that analysis produced a PSAC ratio of 0.04 PSAC or 41 PSAC overall, which is less than the .05 per unit figure above. Therefore the 0.05 per unit was used as the best possible, albeit conservative, estimate of PSAC for Garvies Point. Page 24 RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis The Glen Cove City School District currently has 3,164 students enrolled, 280 teachers, and 722 total employees. The School District has six schools (two elementary, two intermediary, one middle, and one high school). Students are assigned schools based on where there is capacity and are not assigned based on neighborhood or location. In order to estimate the impact that the Project will have on the Glen Cove City District, Camoin Associates spoke with Assistant Superintendent for Business Victoria Galant. Ms. Galant stated that the Project will impact the School District’s day‐to‐day operations, but did not believe that the Project would require additional building capacity. The School District’s current cost per general education student is $13,500 and the cost per special education student is $29,000. The School District’s population is approximately 90% general education and 10% special education.11 Variable Expenses to School District - Full Occupancy
Cost Per General Education Student
$
13,500
Cost Per Special Education Student
$
29,000
Total General Education Students at Project (90%)
50
Total Special Education Students at Project (10%)
6
Total Variable Costs to School District
Source: Glen Cove School District
$
835,275
The following table calculates the new expenses on the School District upon full occupancy, assuming 2% annual inflation and not including any property tax payments. 11
Ms. Galant was contacted in July 2015 to see if any of the information has changed from when we had first spoke in 2014 and she said that the information was still accurate. Page 25 RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Annual School District Net Impact From Start of Construction Through Full
Occupancy - Not Including any Property Tax Payments
Year
Inflation
Factor
Full Occupancy
Variable Cost
% Residential
Occupied
Variable Expense
1
2017
1.000 $
835,275
0% $
-
2
2018
1.020 $
851,981
0% $
-
3
2019
1.040 $
869,020
10% $
(86,902)
4
2020
1.061 $
886,401
40% $
(354,560)
5
2021
1.082 $
904,129
50% $
(452,064)
6
2022
1.104 $
922,211
60% $
(553,327)
7
2023
1.126 $
940,655
75% $
(705,491)
8
2024
1.149 $
959,468
100% $
(959,468)
9
2025
1.172 $
978,658
100% $
(978,658)
10
2026
1.195 $
998,231
100% $
(998,231)
11
2027
1.219 $
1,018,196
100% $
(1,018,196)
12
2028
1.243 $
1,038,559
100% $
(1,038,559)
13
2029
1.268 $
1,059,331
100% $
(1,059,331)
14
2030
1.294 $
1,080,517
100% $
(1,080,517)
15
2031
1.319 $
1,102,128
100% $
(1,102,128)
16
2032
1.346 $
1,124,170
100% $
(1,124,170)
17
2033
1.373 $
1,146,654
100% $
(1,146,654)
18
2034
1.400 $
1,169,587
100% $
(1,169,587)
19
2035
1.428 $
1,192,978
100% $
(1,192,978)
20
2036
1.457 $
1,216,838
100% $
(1,216,838)
21
2037
1.486 $
1,241,175
100% $
(1,241,175)
22
2038
1.516 $
1,265,998
100% $
(1,265,998)
23
2039
1.546 $
1,291,318
100% $
(1,291,318)
24
2040
1.577 $
1,317,145
100% $
(1,317,145)
25
2041
1.608 $
1,343,487
100% $
(1,343,487)
Annual Average
$
(907,871)
Total
$
(22,696,782)
Net Present Value
$
(13,390,693)
Source: Camoin Associates, School District, Developer
Page 26 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – Attachments Attachment A – What is Economic Impact Analysis? The purpose of conducting an economic impact study is to ascertain the total cumulative changes in employment, earnings and output in a given economy due to some initial “change in final demand”. To understand the meaning of “change in final demand”, consider the installation of a new widget manufacturer in Anytown, USA. The widget manufacturer sells $1 million worth of its widgets per year exclusively to consumers in Canada. Therefore, the annual change in final demand in the United States is $1 million because dollars are flowing in from outside the United States and are therefore “new” dollars in the economy. This change in final demand translates into the first round of buying and selling that occurs in an economy. For example, the widget manufacturer must buy its inputs of production (electricity, steel, etc.), must lease or purchase property and pay its workers. This first round is commonly referred to as the “Direct Effects” of the change in final demand and is the basis of additional rounds of buying and selling described below. To continue this example, the widget manufacturer’s vendors (the supplier of electricity and the supplier of steel) will enjoy additional output (i.e. sales) that will sustain their businesses and cause them to make additional purchases in the economy. The steel producer will need more pig iron and the electric company will purchase additional power from generation entities. In this second round, some of those additional purchases will be made in the US economy and some will “leak out”. What remains will cause a third round (with leakage) and a fourth (and so on) in ever‐
diminishing rounds of spending. These sets of industry‐to‐industry purchases are referred to as the “Indirect Effects” of the change in final demand. Finally, the widget manufacturer has employees who will naturally spend their wages. As with the Indirect Effects, the wages spent will either be for local goods and services or will “leak” out of the economy. The purchases of local goods and services will then stimulate other local economic activity; such effects are referred to as the “Induced Effects” of the change in final demand. Therefore, the total economic impact resulting from the new widget manufacturer is the initial $1 million of new money (i.e. Direct Effects) flowing in the US economy, plus the Indirect Effects and the Induced Effects. The ratio between Direct Effects and Total Effects (the sum of Indirect and Induced Effects) is called the “multiplier effect” and is often reported as a dollar‐of‐impact per dollar‐of‐change. Therefore, a multiplier of 2.4 means that for every dollar ($1) of change in final demand, an additional $1.40 of indirect and induced economic activity occurs for a total of $2.40. Key information for the reader to retain is that this type of analysis requires rigorous and careful consideration of the geography selected (i.e. how the “local economy” is defined) and the implications of the geography on the computation of the change in final demand. If this analysis wanted to consider the impact of the widget manufacturer on the entire North American continent, it would have to conclude that the change in final demand is zero and therefore the economic impact is zero. This is because the $1 million of widgets being purchased by Canadians is not causing total North American demand to increase by $1 million. Presumably, those Canadian purchasers will have $1 million less to spend on other items and the effects of additional widget production will be cancelled out by a commensurate reduction in the purchases of other goods and services. Changes in final demand, and therefore Direct Effects, can occur in a number of circumstances. The above example is easiest to understand: the effect of a manufacturer producing locally but selling globally. If, however, 100% of domestic demand for a good is being met by foreign suppliers (say, DVD players being imported into the US from Korea and Japan), locating a manufacturer of DVD players in the US will cause a change in final demand because all of those dollars currently leaving the US economy will instead remain. A situation can be envisioned whereby a producer is serving both local and foreign demand, and an impact analysis would have to be careful in calculating how many “new” dollars the producer would be causing to occur domestically. Page 27 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – Attachments Attachment B – Public Safety and School District Letters Page 28 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Attachment C – Impact on Nassau County Page 29 Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis – Attachments Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Executive Summary Camoin Associates was commissioned by Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency (the “Agency”) to conduct an economic and fiscal impact study of a proposed waterfront development (the “Project”) on the City of Glen Cove. The Project is proposed to be built by RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC (the “Company”) on the north side of Glen Cove Creek along Garvies Point Road (the “Site”). This addendum analysis provides a similar economic and fiscal impact of the Project on Nassau County. Economic Impact on Nassau County12 The table below summarizes the economic impact of the Project on the County’s economy, including the impact during the 5‐year construction phase, 8‐year occupancy phasing, and beyond. The 246 net new jobs related to construction would generate $20 million in earnings annually, and the jobs created as a result of the new household spending would generate approximately $8.7 million annually in earnings (2014 dollars). The impact is a result of the new household spending (the direct effects) and also a result of that spending re‐circulating throughout the economy, as local businesses make additional purchases and employees spend their wages locally (the indirect effects). Economic Impact of Project - Construction Through Full Occupancy
Year
Construction
Direct and
Indirect Jobs
Direct Impact: Indirect Impact: Total Impact
Household
Household
(Construction
Spending
Spending
and Household
Employment
Employment
Spending)
1
2017
246
2
2018
246
3
2019
246
18
4
2020
246
71
5
2021
246
88
6
2022
106
7
2023
132
8
2024
176
9
2025
176
10
2026
176
11
2027
176
12
2028
176
13
2029
176
14
2030
176
15
2031
176
16
2032
176
17
2033
176
18
2034
176
19
2035
176
20
2036
176
21
2037
176
22
2038
176
23
2039
176
24
2040
176
25
2041
176
Source: Camoin Associates, Developer
*Phased in based on construction schedule
**Phased in based on occupancy schedule
***Commercial includes retail, restaurant, office, and marina space.
5
19
24
29
36
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
246
246
268
336
358
134
168
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
224
12
Note that the economic impact results of the county analyses are less significant than those in the city analysis due to the fact that all of the development will be “net new” to the City, while only a portion of the development will be net new to the county. See explanatory text on page 32 for additional details. Page 30 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Fiscal Impact on Nassau County The fiscal impact analysis examines the impact that the Project will have the fiscal resources of Nassau County. The table below provides a summary of the anticipated net impacts of the Project on the county upon the full occupancy of the Project not including property tax payments. Net Impact to County Prior to Property Tax Payments
Miscellaneous
Year
Expenses
Net Impact
Revenue*
1
2017
$
$
$
2
2018
$
$
$
3
2019
$
115,358 $
10,774 $
104,584
4
2020
$
470,660 $
43,959 $
426,701
5
2021
$
600,091 $
56,048 $
544,043
6
2022
$
734,512 $
68,602 $
665,909
7
2023
$
936,502 $
87,468 $
849,034
8
2024
$
1,273,643 $
118,957 $
1,154,686
9
2025
$
1,299,116 $
121,336 $
1,177,780
10
2026
$
1,325,098 $
123,763 $
1,201,336
11
2027
$
1,351,600 $
126,238 $
1,225,362
12
2028
$
1,378,632 $
128,763 $
1,249,870
13
2029
$
1,406,205 $
131,338 $
1,274,867
14
2030
$
1,434,329 $
133,965 $
1,300,364
15
2031
$
1,463,016 $
136,644 $
1,326,372
16
2032
$
1,492,276 $
139,377 $
1,352,899
17
2033
$
1,522,121 $
142,164 $
1,379,957
18
2034
$
1,552,564 $
145,008 $
1,407,556
19
2035
$
1,583,615 $
147,908 $
1,435,707
20
2036
$
1,615,287 $
150,866 $
1,464,422
21
2037
$
1,647,593 $
153,883 $
1,493,710
22
2038
$
1,680,545 $
156,961 $
1,523,584
23
2039
$
1,714,156 $
160,100 $
1,554,056
24
2040
$
1,748,439 $
163,302 $
1,585,137
1,616,840
25
2041
$
1,783,408 $
166,568 $
Average Annual
$
1,092,591
Total
$
27,314,778
Net Present Value
$
16,115,227
* Does not factor in any property tax payments
Page 31 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Introduction Camoin Associates was commissioned by Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency (the “Agency”) to conduct an economic and fiscal impact study of a proposed waterfront development (the “Project”) on the City of Glen Cove. The Project is proposed to be built by RXR Glen Isle Partners, LLC (the “Company”) on the north side of Glen Cove Creek along Garvies Point Road (the “Site”). This addendum analysis provides a similar economic and fiscal impact of the Project on Nassau County. For project details and a detailed methodology, please see the original city economic and fiscal impact analysis. The methodology of the county analysis differs in several instances, which are noted in the text of this addendum. Economic Impact The following analysis estimates the one‐time and permanent (annual) economic impacts of the Project on Nassau County (the “Study Area”) resulting from new jobs being created at the Site as well as new household spending. Net New Economic Activity The proposed Project will include residential units, retail, and commercial space. This analysis considers only the economic activity that will be new to the county. It is assumed that the retail and commercial space would be built elsewhere in Nassau County if not for the project. Therefore, unlike in the city‐level analysis, this activity is not considered net new to the county and not considered as part of the economic impact to the county. Additionally, only a portion of the new households are anticipated to be net new to the county because some households would either move from within the county or would have moved to the county regardless of the Project. Camoin Associates conducted a market analysis of both workforce and market‐rate housing in Nassau County to determine the extent of which of the apartments would create “new” households and, therefore, new household spending in the county. It was determined that all workforce units and one‐
third of market‐rate units could be considered as providing “net new” households to the county (i.e., allowing households to exist in the county that otherwise would locate elsewhere). As shown in the table below, 444 households will be net new to the county. Net New Households
Total Market Rate Units
Net New Market Rate Units (1/3)
Total Workforce Units
Net New Workforce Units (100%)
Total Net New Households
999
333
111
111
444
Construction Phase Impacts The Company anticipates that construction of the Project will occur over a five year period at a total cost of approximately $512,910,000 (excluding land and soft costs). On average, construction costs per year will total $102,582,000. However, only the development associated with the 444 households is considered net new to the county. Based on the proportion of the residential portion of the total assessed value of the project and the proportion of residential units that are net new to the county, approximately 35% of the development is net new to the county. Therefore, 35% of construction costs (spending) are assumed to be net new to the county. Page 32 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Estimated Construction Costs
Total Construction Costs
$
Average Annual Constructions Costs (5 years)
$
Percent Net New to County
Net New Average Annual Construction Spending $
512,910,000
102,582,000
35%
35,591,333
As calculated above, there will be approximately $35.6 million in net new annual spending associated with the construction of the Project (direct impact). In addition, indirect impacts occur as the dollars from direct impacts cycle through the economy. In other words, the additional construction spending will create new jobs. Those employees will receive wages and in turn spend a portion of those dollars in the local economy for daily needs, housing, and other expenses. A proportion of those dollars are again re‐spent in the local economy. The indirect impacts of the new spending at the Project will result in a total of approximately 246 new jobs, $50 million in sales, and $20 million in earnings, as shown in the table below. These jobs would last for the duration of the Project’s construction (i.e., five years). Economic Impact of the Construction Phase
Direct
Indirect
Total
Sales
$35,591,333
$14,784,716 $50,376,049
Jobs
137
109
246
Earnings
$14,588,226
$5,689,408 $20,277,634
Operation Phase Annual Impacts Impact of New Households As discussed previously, the Project is expected to generate 444 net new units (households) in the county. New residents would make purchases in the county, thereby adding new dollars to the Nassau County economy. Camoin Associates researched spending patterns by household income to differentiate the spending by workforce rate tenants versus market rate tenants. See City analysis for details. The table below shows the total spending for both workforce rate households and market rate households by category. For total expenditures, it is assumed that residents spent 75% of their total spending basket in the county. This accounts for spending outside of the county that would not impact the county’s economy. The third column shows the total amount spent in the county per unit. Page 33 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Tenant Spending Baskets
Market Rate Units: Average Income of $124,848
Annual Spending Amount Spent in Number of Net New
Category
Basket
County (75%)
Market Rate Units
Food
$
10,084 $
7,563
333
$
2,860 $
2,145
333
$
994 $
746
333
Transportation
$
14,908 $
11,181
333
Healthcare
$
5,797 $
4,348
333
Entertainment
$
4,524 $
3,393
333
Education
$
2,238 $
1,679
333
Household Furnishings & Equipment $
2,586 $
1,940
333
Miscellaneous
$
1,148 $
861
333
$
45,139 $
33,854
Workforce Units: Average Income of $83,314
Annual Spending Amount Spent in Number of Net New
Category
Basket
County (75%)
Affordable Units
Food
$
6,252 $
4,688.90
111
$
1,773 $
1,330
111
$
616 $
462
111
Transportation
$
9,243 $
6,932
111
Healthcare
$
3,594 $
2,696
111
Entertainment
$
2,805 $
2,104
111
Education
$
1,388 $
1,041
111
Household Furnishings & Equipment $
1,603 $
1,202
111
Miscellaneous
$
712 $
534
111
$
27,985 $
20,989
Total Net New County Spending
Total Net New
County Spending
$
2,518,479
$
714,285
$
248,252
$
3,723,273
$
1,447,801
$
1,129,869
$
558,941
$
645,854
$
286,713
$
11,273,465
Total Net New
County Spending
$
520,468
$
147,614
$
51,304
$
769,450
$
299,202
$
233,498
$
115,510
$
133,472
$
59,252
$
2,329,770
$
13,603,235
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Camoin Associates
The total net new spending in the county was calculated by multiplying the amount spent in the county by the number of net new units. As shown in the table above, spending in the county by all new households would total approximately $13.6 million. Camoin Associates used the above spending basket amounts to calculate the direct, indirect, and total impact of the Project on the county. The total spending is broken down into a variety of NAICS codes that capture the spending habits of a typical resident. Using $13.6 million as the new sales input, Camoin Associates employed EMSI to determine the indirect and total impact of the Project. The following table outlines the findings of this analysis. Sales
Jobs
Earnings
Economic Impact of Household Spending
Direct
Indirect
Total
$
13,603,235 $
7,107,057 $ 20,710,292
176
48
224
$
6,071,159 $
2,671,310 $
8,742,469
Therefore, the total net new annual economic impact of the Project on Nassau County is expected to be 224 jobs, $8.7 million in earnings, and $20.7 million in sales. Page 34 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Fiscal Impact Analysis The following analysis examines the impact the Project will have on the fiscal resources of Nassau County. Sales Tax Another revenue source for the county is the sales tax revenue that the county will receive as a result of spending generated by the Project. In Nassau County, sales tax is collected by the county and then a portion is distributed to the towns and cities based on population. The apportionment is reevaluated following the release of the decennial census. The county’s population is projected to increase by 0.174% as a result of the Project and it is assumed that the amount of sales tax received by the county would increase by that percent as well. The county will distribute a portion of that sales tax and retain the remainder. The following table calculates the impact of the Project on the county’s sales tax revenue, holding all else constant. Note that only 40% of the sales tax revenue will be net new to the county because only 40% of residential units will be net new. It is estimated that the county will receive an additional $797,000 in sales tax revenue. Impact of the Project on County Sales Tax Revenue
Current
1,339,532
$1,146,196,410
County Population (2010 Census)
County Sales Tax Revenue (2015)
Change in Total County Sales Tax Revenue
Net New County Sales Tax Revenue (40%)
Source: Nassau County 2015 Adopted Budget, Camoin Associates
Full Build Out
1,341,861
$1,148,189,264
$1,992,854
$797,142
% Increase (Current
to Full Build Out)
0.174%
0.174%
-
The county distributes a portion of its sales tax revenue to local municipalities. As shown in the table below, nearly $47,000 of the new sales tax revenue will be distributed to towns and cities plus an additional $15,600 to villages. The county will retain $734,600 of the new sales tax revenue. County Sales Tax Sharing
Change in Total County Sales Tax Revenue (Net New)
Percent Distributed to Towns and Cities
Amount Distributed to Towns and Cities
Percent Distributed to Villages
Amount Distributed to Villages
Amount Retained by County
$797,142
5.9%
$46,891
2.0%
$15,630
$734,621
Note: The local sales tax rate is 4.25%. Nassau County retains the first 3%. Of the next
0.75%, the county distributes one-third to fund a local government assistance program for
the three tow ns and tw o cities w ithin the county. Villages also receive assistance, in an
amount not to exceed one-sixth of the 0.75% remaining after the tow ns and cities have
recieved their funding. The additional 0.5% is retained by the county.
Source: NYS Office of the State Comptroller, Local Government Sales Taxes in New York
State: 2015 Update
Sewer Revenue The Developer anticipates that the Project will use 345,781 gallons of water per day and generate 314,347 gallons of waste water per day. The city’s Water Department has stated that there is adequate capacity to accommodate this Project. The city charges for sewer use but passes sewer revenue onto the county. Page 35 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 The city charges for sewer as follows: 


0‐30,000 gallons/month: No charge 30,0001‐100,000 gallons/month: $1.18/1,000 gallons 100,000+: $2.36/1,000 gallons Based on the Developer’s expected sewer usage and the city’s fee schedule, the Project will generate nearly $265,000 for the county annually. County Revenue from Sewer Charges
Sewer Use
Daily Use
314,347
Monthly Use (30 days)
9,430,410
Monthly Payment
$22,102
Annual Payment
$265,228
Source: City of Glen Cove Public Works
Department, Developer, Camoin Associates
Other County Revenue The County has a number of other variable revenue sources that are likely to change as a result of the change in population and economic activity after the project is complete. These other variable revenues are shown in the table below. Variable Revenue
Assessment
Misc. Fees
$3,365,000
Consumer Affairs
Permits & Licenses
$5,145,000
Fines and Forfeits
$600,000
Dept Revenues
$200
County Attorney
Fines & Forfeits
$1,080,000
Rents & Recoveries
$1,235,000
Dept Revenues
$130,000
NC Sheriff/Correctional Center
Fines & Forfeits
$13,000
Dept Revenues
$2,450,000
County Clerk
Court fees
$800,000
MTGE recording fees
$21,500,000
Deed Recording Fees
$3,500,000
Real Estate Trans Fees
$15,000
Records MGMT
$150,000
MTGE EXP Reimbur
$1,359,000
Business Name Fee
$200,000
Misc Fees
$3,000,000
On Line Registration
$1,000,000
Civil Service
Misc Receipts
$600
Examination Fees
$314,200
Page 36 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Rule Book Sales
$200
Medical law Enforcement Candi.
$20,000
District Attorney
Investigation Costs Recovery
$12,000
Health Department
Permits & Licenses
$5,480,087
Fines & Forfeits
$250,000
Rents & Recoveries
$470,000
Dept Revenues
$1,413,700
Human Services
Fines & Forfeits
$40,000
Medical Examiner
Fees
$25,000
Public Administrator
Public Admin Fees
$500,000
Probation
Fees
$1,607,000
1% fee on bail
$67,000
Parks, Recreation and Museums
Special Use Permits
$10,000
Film & Advert Activities
$18,000
Recreation Services Misc.
$11,629,720
Museums
$1,167,100
Golf Misc.
$9,089,000
Public Works Department
Permits & Licenses
$621,400
Fines & Forfeits
$10,000
Rents & Recoveries
$9,521,589
Dept Revenues
$53,432,704
Social Services
Rents & Recoveries
$1,900,000
Dept Revenues
$14,988,920
County Treasurer
Interest on Taxes
$15,200,000
Penalty on Delinquent Taxes
$4,800,000
Tax Lien Advertising Fee
$1,200,000
Listing Fee-Tax Delinq. Prop.
$2,500,000
Rents & Recoveries
$20,000
Dept Revenues
$625,000
Traffic and Parking Violations
Fines & Forfeits
$98,698,400
Rents & Recoveries
$35,000
Note: Excludes State and Federal Aid
Camoin Associates estimated the net new growth (measured by percent growth) of the county as a result of the Project. As previously described, the commercial portions of the Project are not net new because it is assumed they would be developed elsewhere in the county regardless. Similarly, not all residential development is net new. Based on the assessed value of the Project, the residential use represents 87% of the Project. The net new units represent 40% of all residential development. As Page 37 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 shown in the table below, the net new change in assessed value in the County is 0.04%. It is assumed that variable county revenues (and expenses) will increase by the same percentage. Percent Change in County Assessed Value After Full Build Out
Current County Assessed Value
$
205,075,616,000
Change in Assessed Value of Property
$
229,603,600
% Residential*
87%
Residential Portion of change in Assessed Value
$
199,755,132
Portion of Residential Net New to County
40%
Net New Change in Assessed Value
$
79,902,053
% Change in Assessed Value (Net New)
0.04%
*The Commercial portion of the Project is not considered net new to the county
Source: Camoin Associates, City Assessor
Using the estimated 0.04% net new increase in assessed value as a result of the Project, Camoin Associates estimates that upon full occupancy, the Project will generate approximately $110,000 in new variable revenues. This calculation is shown in the table below. Impact on County Variable Revenue - Full Occupancy
Total County Variable Revenues
$ 281,208,820
0.04%
Total Increase in Variable Revenues
$
109,565
Total Revenue Change The following table adds all of the annual revenue generated as a result of the Project (totaling over $1 million). Total Annual Change in Revenue (Full Occupancy)
Sales Tax Revenue
$734,621
Sewer Revenue
$265,228
Variable Revenue
$109,565
Total Revenue
$1,109,414 General Fund Expense Variable Expenses Similar to the variable revenues calculated in the previous section, there are also variable expenses to the county which will be impacted by the Project. These variable county expenses are shown in the table below. Variable Expenses
Assessment
General Expenses
$253,900
$39,000
Consumer Affairs
General Expenses
$15,400
County Attorney
General Expenses
$600,000
$5,350,000
NC Sheriff/Correctional Center
Page 38 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Equipment
$52,000
General Expenses
$3,400,730
$16,560,645
County Executive
General Expenses
$80,000
$2,213,129
Office of Constituent Affairs
General Expenses
$1,542,100
County Clerk
Equipment
$50,000
General Expenses
$305,000
$505,000
County Comptroller
Equipment
$5,000
General Expenses
$137,500
$790,300
Civil Service
General Expenses
$336,335
District Attorney
Equipment
$75,500
General Expenses
$1,013,300
$1,407,679
Health Department
Equipment
$53,000
General Expenses
$1,331,050
$392,330
Var Direct Expenses
$5,000,000
Housing & Intergovernmental Affairs
General Expenses
$2,000
Human Services
Equipment
$30,000
General Expenses
$1,069,864
$26,552,331
Medical Examiner
Equipment
$46,700
General Expenses
$707,495
$100,199
Public Administrator
General Expenses
$9,250
$7,300
Probation
Equipment
$30,900
General Expenses
$290,700
$503,325
Parks, Recreation and Museums
Equipment
$558,500
General Expenses
$1,871,250
$7,563,100
Public Works Department
Equipment
$109,763
Page 39 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 General Expenses
$6,867,531
$132,151,546
Other Expenses
$14,169,246
Social Services
Equipment
$24,000
General Expenses
$768,150
$7,944,143
County Treasurer
Equipment
$8,800
General Expenses
$393,300
$257,000
Traffic and Parking Violations
Equipment
$9,100
General Expenses
$231,450
$22,007,370
Camoin Associates estimates that the Project will generate approximately $104,000 in new variable expenses upon full occupancy. This calculation is shown in the following table. Impact on County Variable Expenses - Full Occupancy
Total County Variable Revenues
$ 265,793,211
0.04%
Total Increase in Variable Expenses
$
103,559
Sewer‐Related Expenses The county recently assumed responsibility for the operation of the City of Glen Cove’s Water Pollution Control Plant. According to the Nassau County Public Works website, the plant has a surplus capacity of over 2.5 million gallons per day (mgd). The Project will generate about 314,000 gallons of wastewater per day leaving nearly 2.2 mgd in surplus capacity at the plant. Therefore, no capital expenditures related to a need to increase capacity are anticipated as a result of the Project. Glen Cove Water Pollution Control Plant
Current Daily Use (gallons)
Current Daily Surplus Capacity (gallons)
New Daily Use from Project (gallons)
Remaining Daily Surplus Capacity (gallons)
3,000,000
2,500,000
314,347
2,185,653
Source: Nassau County Public Works Department Wastew ater Management
Program
Incremental operating costs related to treating increased wastewater from the Project are expected. This incremental cost is captured in the variable revenue included above under the Public Works Department noted above. Total County Expense Change The only significant expenses to the county expected as a result of the Project are the variable expenses that the county will incur, as discussed above. Expenses for emergency services including fire, police, and EMS will be absorbed at by the City of Glen Cove. Therefore, the total annual change in county expenses is expected to be approximately $104,000. Page 40 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Net Impact to the County Revenue The following table shows the revenue that will be generated as the Project reaches full occupancy and beyond, not including property tax revenue. Using the revenue generated by the Project upon full occupancy as calculated above, Camoin Associates inflated the revenue at a rate of 2%13 annually. Annual Revenue Generated From Start of Construction Through Full Occupancy - Not Including Property Tax Payments
Total Revenue Generated (not
Inflation
Full Occupancy
Year
% Occupied
Annual Revenue
including property tax
Factor
Revenue
payments)
1
2017
1.0000 $
1,109,414
0% $
$
2
2018
1.0200 $
1,131,602
0% $
$
3
2019
1.0404 $
1,154,234
10% $
115,423 $
115,423
4
2020
1.0612 $
1,177,319
40% $
470,928 $
470,928
5
2021
1.0824 $
1,200,865
50% $
600,433 $
600,433
6
2022
1.1041 $
1,224,883
60% $
734,930 $
734,930
7
2023
1.1262 $
1,249,380
75% $
937,035 $
937,035
8
2024
1.1487 $
1,274,368
100% $
1,274,368 $
1,274,368
9
2025
1.1717 $
1,299,855
100% $
1,299,855 $
1,299,855
10
2026
1.1951 $
1,325,852
100% $
1,325,852 $
1,325,852
11
2027
1.2190 $
1,352,369
100% $
1,352,369 $
1,352,369
12
2028
1.2434 $
1,379,417
100% $
1,379,417 $
1,379,417
13
2029
1.2682 $
1,407,005
100% $
1,407,005 $
1,407,005
14
2030
1.2936 $
1,435,145
100% $
1,435,145 $
1,435,145
15
2031
1.3195 $
1,463,848
100% $
1,463,848 $
1,463,848
16
2032
1.3459 $
1,493,125
100% $
1,493,125 $
1,493,125
17
2033
1.3728 $
1,522,988
100% $
1,522,988 $
1,522,988
18
2034
1.4002 $
1,553,447
100% $
1,553,447 $
1,553,447
19
2035
1.4282 $
1,584,516
100% $
1,584,516 $
1,584,516
20
2036
1.4568 $
1,616,207
100% $
1,616,207 $
1,616,207
21
2037
1.4859 $
1,648,531
100% $
1,648,531 $
1,648,531
22
2038
1.5157 $
1,681,501
100% $
1,681,501 $
1,681,501
23
2039
1.5460 $
1,715,131
100% $
1,715,131 $
1,715,131
24
2040
1.5769 $
1,749,434
100% $
1,749,434 $
1,749,434
25
2041
1.6084 $
1,784,423
100% $
1,784,423 $
1,784,423
13
Camoin Associates has employed a standard annual inflation adjustment of 2% for the county’s revenues and expenses. Page 41 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Expense Using the same methodology as used to calculate the annual revenue, Camoin Associates estimated the annual expenses resulting from the Project. Annual Expenses Generated from Start of Construction Through Full Occupancy
Year
Inflation
Factor
1
2017
1.0000
2
2018
1.0200
3
2019
1.0404
4
2020
1.0612
5
2021
1.0824
6
2022
1.1041
7
2023
1.1262
8
2024
1.1487
9
2025
1.1717
10
2026
1.1951
11
2027
1.2190
12
2028
1.2434
13
2029
1.2682
14
2030
1.2936
15
2031
1.3195
16
2032
1.3459
17
2033
1.3728
18
2034
1.4002
19
2035
1.4282
20
2036
1.4568
21
2037
1.4859
22
2038
1.5157
23
2039
1.5460
24
2040
1.5769
25
2041
1.6084
Full Build Out
Expense
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
103,559
105,630
107,743
109,898
112,096
114,337
116,624
118,957
121,336
123,763
126,238
128,763
131,338
133,965
136,644
139,377
142,164
145,008
147,908
150,866
153,883
156,961
160,100
163,302
166,568
0%
0%
10%
40%
50%
60%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
10,774
43,959
56,048
68,602
87,468
118,957
121,336
123,763
126,238
128,763
131,338
133,965
136,644
139,377
142,164
145,008
147,908
150,866
153,883
156,961
160,100
163,302
166,568
Total Expenses
Generated
% Occupied
Page 42 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis on County – June 2016 Net Impact The following table shows the net impact of the Project on the county not including property tax payments. Over the 25‐year period, the average annual net impact on the county is nearly $1.1 million in new revenue. Net Impact to County Prior to Property Tax Payments
Miscellaneous
Expenses
Net Impact
Year
Revenue*
1
2017
$
$
$
2
2018
$
$
$
3
2019
$
115,358 $
10,774 $
104,584
4
2020
$
470,660 $
43,959 $
426,701
5
2021
$
600,091 $
56,048 $
544,043
6
2022
$
734,512 $
68,602 $
665,909
7
2023
$
936,502 $
87,468 $
849,034
8
2024
$
1,273,643 $
118,957 $
1,154,686
9
2025
$
1,299,116 $
121,336 $
1,177,780
10
2026
$
1,325,098 $
123,763 $
1,201,336
11
2027
$
1,351,600 $
126,238 $
1,225,362
12
2028
$
1,378,632 $
128,763 $
1,249,870
13
2029
$
1,406,205 $
131,338 $
1,274,867
14
2030
$
1,434,329 $
133,965 $
1,300,364
15
2031
$
1,463,016 $
136,644 $
1,326,372
16
2032
$
1,492,276 $
139,377 $
1,352,899
17
2033
$
1,522,121 $
142,164 $
1,379,957
18
2034
$
1,552,564 $
145,008 $
1,407,556
19
2035
$
1,583,615 $
147,908 $
1,435,707
20
2036
$
1,615,287 $
150,866 $
1,464,422
21
2037
$
1,647,593 $
153,883 $
1,493,710
22
2038
$
1,680,545 $
156,961 $
1,523,584
23
2039
$
1,714,156 $
160,100 $
1,554,056
24
2040
$
1,748,439 $
163,302 $
1,585,137
25
2041
$
1,783,408 $
166,568 $
1,616,840
Average Annual
$
1,092,591
Total
$
27,314,778
Net Present Value
$
16,115,227
* Does not factor in any property tax payments
Page 43 Glen Cove Industrial Development Agency Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis ‐ Attachments Attachment D – Public School Aged Children Analysis Memo Page 44 New York Office:
MEMORANDUM
To:
From:
Date:
Re:
Frank Haftel
Michael N’dolo, Vice President
August 26, 2015
Calculation of Public School Aged Children for Garvies Point
120 West Avenue, Suite #303
Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
Phone: 518.899.2608
Fax: 512.777.5045
Other Offices:
Scarborough, ME
Brattleboro, VT
The purpose of this memo is to discuss in detail the calculations and data used to project the number of
Public School Aged Children (“PSAC”) that the Garvies Point project (the “Project” or “Garvies Point”)
would generate for the Glen Cove School District.
Below, we lay out the methodology used in our July 2015 draft impact study. Following comments from
the City and the City’s consultants, we examined the following:





Updated data on PSAC in developments in Glen Cove
Historical data on PSAC in those same developments
Data regarding PSAC as they relate to 3-bedroom units versus studio, 1-bedroom and 2bedroom units
Data regarding PSAC in owner-occupied units (condos and co-ops) versus renter-occupied units.
Data regarding the correlation between PSAC generation and higher and lower rental rates.
With the above, we then re-examined the question of the projected number of PSAC from Garvies Point.
We conclude that the original ratio of 0.05 per unit stands as the best possible conservative estimate
of PSAC for Garvies Point.
Original Assumptions from July 2015 Draft
Narrative from Report
Below is the explanation and data as provided in the July 2015 draft report.
“In order to estimate the number of public school aged children (“PSAC”) that would be generated as a
result of the Project, Camoin Associates considered a variety of data sources that provide relevant
multipliers, including national reports, state reports, and local reports. A study conducted by Pearl M.
Kamer, Ph.D. and published in a report titled ‘Multifamily Housing on Long Island: Its Impact on
Numbers of School-Age Children & School District Finances,’ reports that on average in Nassau County
there are .16 SAC generated per unit.1 When only large (over 100 unit) residential complexes in Glen
Cove are considered, the number of school aged children generated per unit is .04.”
1
The term SAC means school aged children.
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 2 of 9
Below are the four data points from the Kamer report that were used in the original July 2015 draft.
Project
All Large Complexes
Only Rental Complexes
Average Children Per Glen Cove Unit
Total Units
Children
256
184
146
111
697
440
5
19
4
1
29
24
SAC Multiplier
0.02
0.10
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.05
Source: Kamer Report, Camoin Associates
Results
Using the higher ratio pertaining to rental complexes of 0.05, the July 2015 analysis concludes that 56
PSAC would be generated by the Project.
New School Aged Children
Total Residential Units
PSAC Per Unit
Total School Aged Children
1,110
0.05
56
Source: Developer, Pearl Kamer Report, AvalonBay Communities Report,
Camoin Associates
Additional Data Collection Post-July 2015 Draft
Based on the City’s comments and desires, we collected additional data on: (1) updated PSAC data for
Glen Cove complexes, (2) historical PSAC data, (3) data on 3-bedroom PSAC generation, and (4) data on
owner-occupied versus renter-occupied units.
Updated Data on Glen Cove Complexes
We began by researching properties in Glen Cove to identify large housing complexes in the City,
including apartments, condos and co-ops. We were able to identify four such complexes, as follows:
1. “30-34 Pearsall Owners Corporation”, 30 Pearsall Ave, Glen Cove, NY 11542, an owner-occupied
complex of 147 units.
2. “Glen Arms Apartments”, 21-31 Brewster Street, Glen Cove, NY 11542, a renter-occupied
3. “Avalon Glen Cove South”, 1100 Avalon square, Glen Cove, NY 11542, a renter-occupied
4. “Avalon Glen Cove North”, 100 Glen Street, Glen Cove, NY 11542, a renter-occupied complex of
111 units.
No other large complexes were identified in the City as confirmed by realtors and the school district.
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 3 of 9
We then inquired with the school district to get up-to-date information on the level of PSAC generation
at each of those complexes. Here is the data we received for students currently enrolled in the district:
1.
2.
3.
4.
“30-34 Pearsall Owners Corporation” - 1
“Glen Arms Apartments” - 25
“Avalon Glen Cove South” - 0
“Avalon Glen Cove North” - 1
Therefore, a total of 27 PSACs were identified for complexes totaling 728 units. This equates to a ratio of
0.037 PSACs per unit. We note here that Glen Arms Apartments is not a good comparison complex for
economic reasons described in detail below. Even if we include this in the data, it would indicate a
projected value of 41 PSACs for Garvies Point, substantially lower than the 56 PSACs projected in the
July 2015 draft report.
Historical Data on Glen Cove Complexes
Unfortunately, the school district was not able to provide us good data on the previous year’s PSAC
generation per complex. See appendix for the email transmittal. Instead, the school district told us how
many total pupils had been enrolled, including private school SAC and students who moved or
graduated. It is unclear in most cases when those previously-enrolled students attended and for how
many years. It is also unclear whether some of the data provided predates the 5-year historical time
period that we inquired about. Due to a key personnel absence at the district, we cannot secure
additional clarity at the present moment on historical figures. For estimating purposes, we adjusted
upwards the current PSAC figures, above, based on the data provided by the school district to arrive at
approximate historical average PSAC generation by complex:
1.
2.
3.
4.
“30-34 Pearsall Owners Corporation” – 1.17
“Glen Arms Apartments” – 26.7
“Avalon Glen Cove South” – 1.5
“Avalon Glen Cove North” – 2.3
These estimates indicate PSAC generation totaling just under 32 pupils or approximately 0.043 PSACs
per unit. Again, we believe the Glen Arms data is an anomaly for reasons discussed below. Even if we
include this in the data, it would indicate a projected value of 48 PSACs for Garvies Point, substantially
lower than the July 2015 draft report.
Data on PSAC Generation for 3-Bedroom Units
The City noted that none of the comparison complexes used in the original analysis contained 3bedroom units, whereas approximately 10% of units in Garvies Point are to be 3-bedroom units
(accounting for both rental and condo units). Therefore, we researched the topic of the differential PSAC
generation in 3-bedroom units as compared to 1- and 2-bedroom units. The most comprehensive data
available on the topic was a study from Rutgers University’s Center for Urban Policy Research entitled
“Residential Demographic Multipliers - Estimates of the Occupants of New Housing” and dated June
2006, covering all residential units in New York State2. We used data on page 7 of the Rutgers report as
2
Source: http://www.co.dutchess.ny.us/CountyGov/Departments/Planning/rdm.pdf
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 4 of 9
to PSAC generation for complexes of more than 5 rental units in the highest rent category. See table
below.
Total PSAC
5+ Rent
1Bd
0.0700
2Bd
0.1600
3Bd
0.6300
Avr 1 & 2 Bd
0.1150
Ratio 3bd:1&2bd 5.478261
5+ Own
1Bd
0.100
2Bd
0.140
3Bd
0.590
Avr 1 & 2 Bd
0.120
Ratio 3bd:1&2bd 4.916667
The Rutgers data therefore imply that 3-bedroom rental units generate 5.48 times the number of PSAC
than the average PSAC generation of 1- and 2-bedroom units. For owner-occupied properties, the 3bedroom units generate 4.92 times the number of PSACs than 1- and 2- bedroom units. We will use
these ratios below for a new estimate of PSAC generation.
Data on PSAC Generation for Owner-Occupied Versus Renter-Occupied Units
Using the same data source as above, we examined PSAC generation for renter- versus owner-occupied
units in New York. As shown in the table below, the ratio of PSACs in owner-occupied 1-bedroom units
versus renter-occupied 1-bedroom units is 1.429. Likewise, the ratio for 2-bedroom units is 0.875. We
use these ratios (or conversion factors) later for a new estimate of PSAC generation at Garvies Point.
1Bd
2Bd
3Bd*
Rental to Owner Conversion Factors
Rental
Owner Conversion Factor
0.07
0.1
1.429
0.16
0.14
0.875
Not available
Note on Glen Arms PSAC Data
Glen Arms is a rental complex that differs substantially from the other properties studied as
comparisons to Garvies Point due to its age and, mostly importantly, its target market. Whereas a typical
2-bedroom unit at Glen Arms rents for $1,900 (source: Glen Arms website), both Avalon properties rent
2-bedroom units at $2,800 or a 47% differential in rent (source: Avalon Glen Cove website). Similarly,
the Garvies Point property’s indicated rent point for a 2-bedroom unit is $3,500, or an 84% differential
in rent. (Source: developer).
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 5 of 9
This is important because the Rutgers data provide a clear indication of significantly lower PSAC
generation in high rent complexes. We again direct you to page 9 of the report. For complexes of more
than 5 units, below is the breakdown of total PSAC per unit.


1-Bedroom with mid-range rents: 0.27
1-Bedroom with high rents: 0.07
Average priced 1-bedrooms therefore have 3.86 times the number of PSAC across the state as compared
to the higher priced 1-bedroom units.


Average priced 2-bedroom units therefore have 2.81 times the number of PSAC across the state as
compared to the higher priced 2-bedroom units.


Average priced 3-bedroom units therefore have 2.17 times the number of PSAC across the state as
compared to the higher priced 3-bedroom units.
If we take the simple average of the three ratios (i.e. (3.86 + 2.81 + 2.17)/3) we arrive at an average of
2.95 times more PSACs in lower priced units than in higher priced units across the state. We note that
this conclusion is suggested by Kamer in her report as well (page 4): “It seems likely that the
socioeconomic characteristics of the residents of multifamily housing would have had even more of a
bearing on the ratio of school-age children per dwelling unit. However, this information was not
available from the database.”
For this reason, we believe Glen Arms does not represent a fair comparison to the subject property for
economic reasons. It is also clearly an outlier in the data set we are working in. Instead of completely
removing the data, we instead have reduced by half the number of PSACs generated by Glen Arms in
our calculations. We note that even this reduction is significantly less than the indicated reduction from
the data presented above (i.e. dividing by a factor of 2 instead of 2.95, or instead of removing the data
entirely).
New Estimate of PSAC Generation of Garvies Point
We estimated a weighted average of the PSAC ratios using the previously discussed data from Glen Cove
City Schools on the number of PSACs generated by the four complexes in the current year and the
previous five. As shown in the table below, the 6-year annual average of PSACs generated from the four
complexes is 18.3. When divided by the combined total number of units of 727, we arrive at an overall
PSAC ratio of 0.0252.
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 6 of 9
Recent PSAC Counts and Ratios in 100+ Unit Multi-Family Complexes - City of Glen Cove
City of Glen Cove
6-Year Annual
Name
Address
Units
Average PSAC
PSAC Ratio
30-34 Pearsall Owners Corporation 30 Pearsall Ave
147
1.2
0.0079
Glen Arms Apartments*
21-31 Brewster Street
214
13.3
0.0623
Avalon Glen Cove South
1100 Avalon square
256
1.5
0.0059
Avalon Glen Cove North
100 Glen Street
110
2.3
0.0212
Total
727
18.3
0.0252
* Note that the 6-Year Annual Average PSAC for Glen Arms Apartments has been reduced by a factor of 2 (from 26.7) for the
purposes of calculating an average PSAC ratio. Please see body of memo for explanation.
Source: Glen Cove City Schools; Camoin
We calculated the estimated number of PSAC generated from rental units and condo units separately.
The table below shows the PSAC calculation for rental units at Garvies Point. The average PSAC ratio of
large multi-family complexes in Glen Cove calculated above is applied to the number of proposed
Studio, 1 Bedroom, and 2 Bedroom rental units. For the 3 Bedroom PSAC Rental Ratio we applied a
factor of 5.48 to the ratio of .0252. Refer to section titled “Data on PSAC Generation for 3-Bedroom
Units” for details on how that factor was calculated. When the ratios are applied to the number of each
type of units, we project that Garvies Point rental units will generate 17 PSAC.
PSAC Calculation: Rental Units - Garvies Point
Studio
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom*
Total
PSAC Rental
Ratio
Rental Units Rental PSAC
0.0252
26
1
0.0252
261
7
0.0252
225
6
0.1381
29
4
541
17
* the 3-Bedroom PSAC Rental Ratio equals 5.48 multiplied by the studio, 1, and 2
bedroom ratio
The table below shows the calculations for estimates of PSAC generated from the proposed condo units
at Garvies Point. As discussed previously in this memo, we converted the 1- and 2-bedroom rental ratio
to 1- and 2-bedroom condo ratios using statewide data from the Rutgers report. The 3-bedroom condo
figure was calculated by multiplying the PSAC ratio for 1- and 2-bedroom units by 4.92. See section titled
“Data on PSAC Generation for 3-Bedroom Units” for explanation. When the ratios are applied to the
number of units of each size, we estimate that the condo units will generate 24 PSAC.
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 7 of 9
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom**
Total
PSAC Calculation: Condo Units
PSAC Rental Conversion PSAC Condo
Ratio
Factor*
Ratio
0.0252
1.4
0.04
0.0252
0.9
0.02
--0.14
Condo Units
Condo PSAC
128
5
362
8
79
11
569
24
* Conversion Factor based on ratios of PSAC in condo units based on Rutgers data
**3 Bedroom PSAC Condo Ratio equals 4.92 * 1 and 2 bedroom ratio based on Rutgers data
Overall we project that 40.8 PSAC will be generated by the Garvies Point Project. With 1,110 units
planned, the resulting PSAC ratio is calculated to be 0.04, which correlates to the ratio for all large
complexes in the Kamer report.
PSAC Ratio Calculation: All Units - Garvies Point
Studio
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom**
Total
Rental PSAC Condo PSAC Total PSAC
0.7
0.0
0.7
6.6
4.6
11.2
5.7
8.0
13.7
4.0
11.3
15.3
40.8
Total Units
26
389
587
108
1110
Overall PSAC
Ratio
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.14
0.04
Conclusion
Our analysis of the new data provided by the school district arrives at 0.04 PSAC per unit (or 41 PSAC
overall), which is less than the 0.05 per unit figure (or 56 PSAC overall) used in the July 2015 report.
Therefore, we conclude that the original ratio of 0.05 per unit stands as the best possible, albeit
conservative, estimate of PSAC for Garvies Point.
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 8 of 9
Appendix
Email from School District
From: Victoria Galante [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, August 7, 2015 1:23 PM
To: Daniel Stevens <[email protected]>
Subject: RE: Garvies Point Impact Analysis
Dan,
Here is what IT came up with:

“30-34 Pearsall Owners Corporation”, 30 Pearsall Ave, Glen Cove, NY 11542
Current
1 student MS,
Past
1 graduated 2006
1 graduated from Private School 2006
1 in K moved in 2012
1 MS moved in 2009

“Glen Arms Apartments”, 21-31 Brewster Street, Glen Cove
Current
9 at Deasy
9 at Landing
5 at MS
1 at HS
1 at Private
Past
We had 45 students from this location in the past 5 years that are not in the district at this
time.

1100 Avalon Square, Glen Cove, NY
Current 2 students in Private School
Past
2 students in the ES
2 Private School
1 Graduated
Memorandum
August 26, 2015
Frank Haftel
Page 9 of 9

100 Glen Street, Glen Cove, NY
Current
1 student at Landing
Past
6 students in the past not currently enrolled
Victoria Galante
Assistant Superintendent for Business
Glen Cove City School District
Glen Cove, NY 11542
516-801-7030
[email protected]

Garvies Point Project Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Glen

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