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Topics
Risk Solutions
Insurance solutions for industry
Issue 3/2014
Flood paths
New global NATHAN flood-exposure
maps show flood zones worldwide with
unprecedented accuracy. Find out
more about NATHAN, starting on paGe 4.
Munich Re
40 years of
Geo Risks Research
Meteorite impact
Russia gets a warning
shot
Natural hazards
Underwriting needs
sound knowledge
EDITORIAL
Dear Reader,
We listen carefully when talking with our clients.
So we know of their fear that greater risk transparency for the insurer automatically leads to higher
insurance premiums. That can be the case,
but the opposite is also true. One example is the
new, detailed flood risk maps in NATHAN, which
have attained an unmatched level of accuracy. This
more precise mapping shows that many locations
are far less exposed than previous models have
assumed. These new findings are of course
incorporated into customised premium calculations,
which take individual risk exposure into account.
With NATHAN, the exposure to natural hazards of
entire industry segments can be reviewed, such as the
exposure of the automobile sector worldwide to the
hailstorm risk or the degree to which production sites
of the semiconductor industry around the world lie in
flood plains.
I wish you an interesting read.
Munich, July 2014
Yours sincerely,
Torsten Jeworrek
Member of the Munich Re Board of Management and
Chairman of the Reinsurance Committee
NOT IF, BUT HOW
Contents
Flood disaster in
Canada
In June 2013, the Bow River
breached its banks and flooded
Calgary’s city centre and residential areas. The heaviest floods in
decades shut down the Canadian oil capital, forcing the
evacuations of tens of thousands
of residents and bringing the
heart of Calgary to a standstill.
Page 4
News2
40 years of Geo Risks Research
3
risk management
Globally consistent
natural hazards assessment Analysis of the world’s natural hazards with NATHAN
catastrophe portrait
Meteor over Chelyabinsk
The flash of light was 30 times brighter than
the sun at peak brightness
interview
Our expertise on natural hazards forms the basis
of many of our underwriting decisions and enjoys
worldwide recognition, says Peter Höppe, Head of
Geo Risks Research and Corporate Climate Centre.
Imprint and preview
4
12
16
17
Munich Re Topics Risk Solutions 3/2014
1
news
MUNICH RE
NATURAL HAZARDS
WRAP: New online guide
New IT-based insurance
solution
Munich Re offers commercial satellite
operators a new insurance solution
covering a satellite’s entire service
life. The so-called end-of-life cover
commences with a satellite’s launch
and terminates at the end of its scheduled service life, or after 15 years at
most. What is new, besides the cover
period, is that during the term of
insurance no adjustment is made to
the conditions of insurance, even if
the satellite’s technical condition has
changed.
The new Weather Resilience and
Protection (WRAP) website provides
information about severe weather in
the United States and creates a dialogue on the topics of adaptation to
weather and protection solutions.
Using Munich Re’s expertise and
research on severe weather to explain
the risks, the website taps Munich
Re’s own risk-solution knowledge
and the company’s relationships with
various research organisations. The
WRAP website is designed to help
homeowners, businesses, communities and the insurance industry
prepare for a future in which more
severe weather seems likely.
Munich Re and RIB have signed an
exclusive agreement to jointly develop
the first global IT-based insurance
product for large construction projects
that covers elements of unplanned
increase in construction cost. The
innovative solution, targeted at project owners, combines the RIB iTWO
Technology with Munich Re’s risk
know-how.
New satellite
insurance cover
This cover gives clients planning
security with regard to their insurance costs and scope of cover. The
availability of insurance plays a decisive role in whether a satellite project
can be financed and at what cost.
>> Visit WRAP:
www.munichre.us/wrap
>> M
ore information:
www.munichre.com/spaceflight
CONSTRUCTION RISKs
The new IT-technology of RIB divides
the construction process into two
phases. During the virtual construction phase, all processes, interfaces,
time aspects and costs are made
transparent. This is the basis for the
insurance cover, which mitigates
risks related to cost and time elements and provides investors with
more cost certainty. The physical
construction phase starts only after
successful completion of the virtual
construction phase.
>> M
ore information on:
www.munichre.com/company-news
News in brief
Follow us on social media
For some time now, readers have
been able to comment on Topics
Online articles on our website. But
you can also contact Munich Re on
different social media platforms: we
are on Twitter, Facebook, Google+,
YouTube, LinkedIn and Xing.
Why not follow us – and at the same
time keep up with the topics that are
being talked about in the insurance
2
industry – in the form of interesting
articles and fascinating videos. Or
stay fully up to date with live tweets
from company and industry events.
>> twitter.com/munichre
>> facebook.com/munichre
>> youtube.com/user/munichrevideo
>> linkedin.com/company/munich-re
>> xing.com/companies/munichre
>> plus.google.
com/115897201513788995727
Systematically recording, analysing and researching
climate change, natural catastrophes and their disastrous consequences – these are the core tasks of the
Geo Risks Research unit that Munich Re established
40 years ago. The vast wealth of knowledge and
experience gathered over this period enables our
team to develop high-quality solutions for assessing
natural catastrophe risks.
Our geoscientists’ work focuses on four main areas of
activity: research into natural hazards and climate
risks, updating the NatCatSERVICE natural catastrophe database, analysing geo risks using the NATHAN
Risk Suite, and natural catastrophe risk modelling.
Geo Risks Research also manages Munich Re’s climate
change activities.
The Geo Risks Research team of some 40 experts
includes geographers, geologists, geophysicists,
meteorologists, engineers and hydrologists. Collaboration with the international scientific community is
of central importance. “The intensive exchange with
climatologists and geophysicists helps us to incorporate and use the most recent findings in our analyses.
We have our fingers on the pulse of the times,” Professor Peter Höppe affirms. Established in 2008, the
Corporate Climate Centre supervises all activities of
Munich Re related to climate change and concerns
itself with long-term strategy and concrete business
dimensions. “We also see ourselves as a type of thinktank that develops new solution concepts and communicates these to the scientific community and
industry,” adds Ernst Rauch, Head of the Corporate
Climate Centre.
Munich Re clients benefit from this know-how – for
example, from the unique NatCatSERVICE database,
in which data on more than 34,000 natural catastrophe events have been compiled and scientifically
documented. By contrast, the Nathan Risk Suite tool
assesses the risks of possible future events. With the
help of the practical and easy-to-use online solution,
risk profiles can be derived for individual locations
and also for entire risk portfolios – and this worldwide.
>> M
ore information at
www.munichre.com/touch/
naturalhazards/en
3
RISK MANAGEMENT
Better assessment of
natural hazards with NATHAN
At the RIMS 2014 Risk Management Conference in
Denver, Corporate Insurance Partner introduced the
mobile version of the Natural Hazards Assessment
Network NATHAN, which makes it possible to carry
out a globally consistent analysis of all important
natural hazards.
At the end of April, risk experts from all over the world
met in Denver, Colorado, at RIMS 2014, one of the
biggest events on the subject of risk management,
with the slogan “Take Your Knowledge To New
Heights”. With over 3,500 members from industry,
services, NGOs and politics, the Risk Management
Society – RIMS for short – forms a network of around
11,000 risk management professionals from over
60 countries.
In Denver, Corporate Insurance Partner presented the
mobile version of NATHAN, which offers a number of
interesting new features. With NATHAN, it is possible
to carry out globally consistent, detailed natural hazards
analysis and assessment. New flood-exposure maps
show flood zones worldwide with unprecedented
accuracy. Other features like the “risk score” open up
new possibilities in the risk management of natural
hazards.
When an insurance company presents some natural
hazards software, the first spontaneous questions are
obvious: “Does NATHAN give a loss expectancy
value?” “Does it also calculate a possible maximum
loss?”
A clear answer is given by Dr. Jürgen Schimetschek,
one of the heads of development for NATHAN: “No,
NATHAN is neither a modelling nor a pricing tool, but
a tool for the quantitative analysis of natural hazards
which is currently unique in its functionality and
performance. Our goal during development was ’all
major perils in all regions’. With NATHAN, risk managers can retrieve information on all important natural
hazards for all regions worldwide, by precise location
or address. Besides earthquake, storm or storm surge,
the hazards also include tornadoes, hail, lightning,
tsunamis or forest fires. The big advantage of NATHAN
compared with other systems is its globally uniform
and consistent database. The analysis results can
therefore be uniformly assessed and compared.”
In 1752, Benjamin Franklin provided proof that
an electrical charge is generated between
clouds and the ground during thunderstorms,
but to this day there is no conclusive scientific
explanation of lightining and its effects. We are,
however, well aware of the damage it can cause.
5
RISK MANAGEMENT
“Scarcely any other technical development in the
last two decades has revolutionised risk management
as much as geointelligence.”
Dr. Jürgen Schimetschek, Geo Risks Manager, Munich Re
Everything under control locally! Globally too?
Highly developed industrial nations in North America
or Europe have sophisticated analytical tools and
accurate data – for flood risks, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) in the USA or ZÜRS
(zoning system for flood, backwater, and heavy rain)
in Germany, for example. But what is the situation like
for the location of a large international enterprise in,
say, Taiwan, China or India? Do risk managers have as
good a view of all the facilities and buildings as they
do on their own doorsteps? Do they know the risks
posed by their suppliers or customers?
With NATHAN, the risk managers can make their
exposures transparent. After entering the locations,
they get an overall view of their risk portfolios, including in so-called “white spots” – regions that other
tools do not cover.
Natural hazards potential outside the big industrial
nations
According to our NatCatSERVICE analyses, a large
proportion of natural disasters happen outside the big
industrial regions. The continent of Asia accounted
for almost half of all overall economic losses in 2013.
Chief among the causes of these losses were
Typhoons Haiyan and Fitow, as well as earthquakes,
floods and droughts in China. Canada was also the
scene of major natural disasters in 2013. In mid-June,
probably the worst flooding in the history of the western Canadian province of Alberta occurred. Losses
totalled almost US$ 6bn, only about US$ 1.6bn of
which was insured. Just two weeks later, Canada
experienced floods again, but this time in and around
Toronto. Storms with flash floods caused a total loss
of US$ 1.6bn.
6
Hazard zones worldwide
With NATHAN, the entire globe can be analysed.
Here, exposure zones for earthquakes in comparison with semiconductor industry locations
worldwide.
2013 was a relatively quiet year, though. But in record
loss year 2011, Asia was also the scene of the majority
of disasters worldwide. Flooding in Thailand from
August to November 2011, for example, caused a total
loss of US$ 40bn, only US$ 10bn of which was
insured.
Our NatCatSERVICE analyses show that loss susceptibility in the regions mentioned is constantly increasing, due to the growing industrialisation there and the
associated increase in the concentration of values.
This effect is further exacerbated when these regions
are hit by severe natural events with above-average
frequency, as happened in 2011.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Quantitative analysis using the newly developed
NATHAN risk score
Loss events worldwide 1980 to 2013
Percentage distribution by continent
Back to the RIMS event. The question as to “how
much”comes up again: “How can I better assess my
risk, in order to be able to structure my insurance
optimally?”
Loss events by
continent
NATHAN is the first step towards quickly and easily
gaining transparency on the various hazards and their
severity at a particular location or in an entire portfolio. NATHAN gives the severity in the form of a risk
score. This is calculated from the exposure zone classification with regard to all the important natural hazards there and the empirical loss values for standard
industrial business from Munich Re’s statistics. The
integrated value at risk is represented using a fourcolour scale. With this risk score, risk managers can
ascertain how heavily exposed their locations are and
thus determine their underlying risk potential.
For the further detailed assessment, individual risk
information such as risk score, insurance values and
the type and quality of construction may then be
analysed. For a flood risk, for example, the number
of storeys is just as important as local protective
measures. These considerations are generally made
quite individually for the specific hazards and the
nature of the location. For a storage site for concrete
components, a high hail risk is certainly not a problem, but for a car distribution site it definitely is. The
risk score is also helpful when planning new facilities
or buildings. Identified risks can already be taken into
account when looking for a location and during
construction.
Overall losses by
continent
The NatCatSERVICE figures show the high
proportion of loss events due to natural hazards
outside the major industrial nations.
North America
incl. Central America and Caribbean
South America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia/Oceania
Source: 2014 Münchener RückversicherungsGesellschaft, Geo Risks Research,
NatCatSERVICE – As at February 2014
NATHAN is thus a guide for risk managers and at the
same time creates the basis for specific, risk-related
questions in discussions between insurers and policyholders.
NATHAN risk score – An example
The risk score shows the risk class of an individual location or an entire portfolio for the full
range of potential natural hazards. Risk managers can determine their individual risk situation
according to the “vulnerability” of locations to
the prevalent threats.
7
The new flood exposure maps show that many locations must
be assessed as less exposed than before.
Before
New
Hazard zone
Number of risk loc.Per cent
Hazard zone
Number of risk loc.Per cent
Minimal flood risk
95
Minimal flood risk
127
78
Affected locations 66
41
(200-year)
Affected locations
(100 + 500-year)
34
21
Total161
Total161
59
100
100
The newly implemented global flood exposure
maps in NATHAN show globally consistent, detailed,
wide-area flood exposure for return periods of
100 and 500 years. Water catchment areas down to
500 km2 in size were taken into account for this.
Global Flood Maps cannot necessarily compete with
national, regional or local flood mappings.
The map of China shown here with semiconductor
production locations superimposed clearly shows
that the higher level of detail does not necessarily
mean an increase in the exposure of industrial sites.
On the basis of the previous maps, 66 of 161 sites
were at risk from flooding. With the new data, the
number at risk is now only 34.
Before
New
The effect becomes even clearer if the level of detail is
increased further. Here, the region around Suzhou,
the “Venice of China”, which is a centre of the hightech industry. Semiconductor locations which on the
basis of previous data were clearly defined as highexposure zones are now classified as low-exposure
zones.
With NATHAN, entire industry segments can thus
also be examined for their exposure to natural hazards – for example, the extent to which the automotive
sector worldwide is exposed to the risk of hail, or how
high the risk of flooding is for branches of industry
which are increasingly building by rivers, like the
chemical industry or energy suppliers. These analyses
provide our clients with interesting insights into
credit or supply risks.
8
RISK MANAGEMENT
“It’s a comprehensive global risk assessment tool
that enables the user to get a very efficient view
of exposed perils around the globe. It combines
12 global natural catastrophe maps spanning
four decades, and allows users to identify the
hazard profile for any given coordinate – whether
they’re working on a single site, or uploading a
huge profile containing thousands of sites.”
Dirk Herrenpoth,
Underwriting Manager, Corporate Insurance Partner
More clarity in site assessments
Another interesting highlight for our visitors at the
RIMS event were the new global flood maps. The
globally standardised maps allow risk locations to be
assessed consistently – and therefore better – and
also to be directly compared. High-quality basic
hydrological data and the continuous use of a digital
model of the terrain now allow spatial resolution
down to 30 metres. Water catchment areas down to
500 km2 in size were taken into account for this. This
accuracy does not mean that exposure will immediately increase and will be expensive to insure. Quite
the opposite: more accurate representation now
means that many locations are assessed as less
exposed than on the basis of the previous, less
accurate models. In regions with a high density of
industrial and infrastructure facilities, more accurate
analysis means that the risk situation can change by
many millions of dollars in the operator’s favour.
Objective risk assessment with NATHAN
“Can NATHAN’s data be trusted, or is its prime purpose
to stimulate business?”, some visitors to the RIMS
event asked sceptically. NATHAN offers a purely scientific qualitative view of risk potentials. The results
come from our own internal investigations and from
leading research institutions which Munich Re has
been cooperating with for decades. The function
which allows past events to be superimposed on hazardous areas also demonstrates the validity of the
data. Over 20 historic hurricane and storm events are
stored in NATHAN. Using a so-called “footprint function”, risk managers can simulate the risk situations in
the regions affected at the time and derive the current
risk situation for their locations. In addition, using a
“feed function”, they can also superimpose the latest,
up-to-date events in their regions which have not yet
been incorporated into the databases.
The importance of geoinformation systems
is growing
Geoinformation has already been used for several
decades for the risk management of natural hazards
in the property insurance sector. To obtain this information, different risk information is collated from various sources, linked to spatial data and visualised by
means of satellite images. This gives rise to regular
risk landscapes which illustrate the exposures and
possible accumulations within a region very well.
Depending on the issue and the task, users can thus
produce their own risk profiles which are always upto-date and display them in map form.
Advances in technology and web-based solutions
have revolutionised these applications and simplified
them considerably. For industrial risks, it is now possible to carry out highly accurate geographic portfolio
analyses. The analysis of geocoded portfolio data has
thus become a key part of risk management.
NATHAN has more than 20 historic storm events
available which allow the event to be simulated at the
current time.
Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico.
9
RISK MANAGEMENT
“Geospatial is such a powerful technology because
it can combine many different data sources
together. We gain significant benefit from this key
principle of geospatial technology, because much
of the information we use has only one common
link – a spatial reference.”
Andreas Siebert, Head Geospatial Solutions, Munich Re
NATHAN wins Geospatial World Excellence Award
On 8 May 2014, NATHAN received the Geospatial
World Excellence Award for innovation from the Geospatial World Forum. With NATHAN, Munich Re
shows how geoinformation systems can be used for
risk analysis in the insurance industry. Particular
mention was made of NATHAN’s operating accuracy
and its flexibility of use, ranging from the analysis of
a specific address at a location to the assessment
of entire portfolios, covering all natural hazards.
Always up to date, user-friendly, and accessible via
your browser
When it comes to use, the mobile version of NATHAN
is also state of the art. The touch-based application
can simply be accessed via your browser. It does not
need to be installed or implemented in the company’s
IT system. NATHAN itself runs on Munich Re’s servers
and so is always available everywhere in its latest version. NATHAN is intuitive to use and can be learnt in
a few minutes. Online manuals are also available, of
course.
The mobile version of NATHAN on a tablet PC determines the location using GPS and immediately
performs a natural hazard analysis. The report can
be sent directly by e-mail to other mobile devices.
Munich Re has made the options for using NATHAN
very flexible. Whether the client acquires a licence or
calls up the application as a service from Munich Re is
agreed individually as required.
The positive response at the RIMS event confirmed
our approach: compared with most other systems,
NATHAN offers transparency across the entire globe,
thereby closing the gaps between the commercial
and non-commercial markets. This transparency
makes NATHAN the perfect natural-hazards analysis
tool in the areas of risk management and risk-capital
management.
>> M
ore information at
www.munichre.com/touch/naturalhazards/en
10
RISK MANAGEMENT
“Among all the different tools insurance companies
can choose from, this is the most successful. We
use it in our underwriting for a
nalysing our clients’
exposures and portfolios with large schedules of
values across the globe. The tool helps us to get
transparency on global exposures. We naturally also
offer NATHAN to our clients, with over one million
sites analysed every year.”
Beatrix Hartinger,
Underwriting Manager, Corporate Insurance Partner
FAQs
Does NATHAN give an insurance premium or PML?
No, NATHAN is primarily an exposure and risk analysis tool. Possible risk potentials can be determined via
the risk score and your own risk analyses.
Where do the data come from?
From our own nat cat models and scientifically sound,
commercially independent sources.
What regions does NATHAN cover?
NATHAN can be used worldwide.
What natural hazards are incorporated?
All relevant natural hazards from earthquake to hail
events.
Can natural events be simulated?
The “footprint function” can be used to superimpose
20 historic hurricanes over the regions they affected
at the time, while a “feed function” provides up-todate information on the latest events.
Does NATHAN have to be installed on a company’s
IT systems?
NATHAN Mobile and NATHAN online are both webbased and can be accessed anywhere in the world on
the internet via your browser.
How can I get access to NATHAN?
Please contact one of our experts.
Our Experts:
Beatrix Hartinger,
Underwriting Manager,
Corporate Insurance Partner,
Munich Re
[email protected]
Dirk Herrenpoth,
Underwriting Manager,
Corporate Insurance Partner,
Munich Re
[email protected]
Dr. Jürgen Schimetschek,
Geo Risks Manager, Munich Re
[email protected]
Andreas Siebert,
Head Exposure Analytics &
Geospatial Solutions, Munich Re
[email protected]
11
Meteor over Chelyabinsk
On the morning of 15 February 2013, a bright light appeared in the sky
over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk. A short time later a loud explosion
occurred which shattered hundreds of thousands of windows and
caused losses in the millions. It transpired that a meteoroid weighing
thousands of tonnes had exploded as it entered the atmosphere.
The Chelyabinsk event on a cold, clear
winter’s morning was captured on numerous cameras and mobile phones, making
it the best-documented meteorite impact
of all time. Meteoroids only become meteorites when they strike Earth.
12
Jan Eichner
In view of its characteristics, this so-called “air burst”
can clearly be classified as a minor “Tunguska event”,
in reference to the impact event of 1908, when a
meteoroid or comet with a presumed diameter of
40 to 70 m exploded shortly before impact at an
altitude of 8 to 10 km above the Tunguska region in
Siberia. The energy of that blast was 1,000 times
greater than that of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima,
and uprooted 80 million trees in a 30 km radius.
Curious as to what was glowing in the sky, many people ran to their windows or out onto the streets. It took
about three minutes for the shock wave to reach the
city of Chelyabinsk from the point of explosion 60 km
away. Countless windows shattered and injured people. The event, particularly the trail of light and the
explosion, was captured on numerous cameras and
mobile telephones, and the news rapidly spread on
the internet, making this the best-documented meteorite impact of all time.
Taking inaccuracies into account, it is estimated that
events like the Chelyabinsk meteorite occur every 40
to 100 years, although there are indications that the
likelihood of recurrence is more in the 40-year range.
The explosive force was several orders of magnitude
lower than that of the Tunguska event, but still comparable to that of the Curuçá impact in Brazil in 1930,
and somewhat stronger than the event near Prince
Edward Island (some 1,000 miles to the south of
South Africa) recorded infrasonically in 1963.
Loss pattern
Insurance relevance
Despite the long distance involved, the shock wave
was so strong that it shattered windows and caused
structural damage to 7,000 buildings, even causing
the roof of one factory to cave in. Most of the 1,500
people injured suffered cuts; more than 40 people
required in-patient treatment in hospital. No fatalities
were reported. The low temperatures in Chelyabinsk
that season – the thermometer dropped to –15°C in
the nights following the strike – led to further losses.
For example, water pipes froze in residential buildings
with shattered windows.
The property damage (mostly broken glass, but also
several cases of structural building damage) is estimated at over one billion roubles (US$ 35m). It was of
no major significance for the international insurance
industry, in part because Russian homeowners’ insurance is not reinsured. The cost of treating the injured
was covered by Russia’s national insurance scheme.
Scientific analysis
Immediately after the event, millimetre- to fist-sized
fragments of the meteorite were found near Lake
Chebarkul. In mid-October 2013, eight months after
the impact, divers recovered a piece weighing over
600 kg from the bottom of the lake. On impact, it had
made a hole 6 to 7 m in diameter in the ice. Analyses
showed that the meteoroid was from the group of
“ordinary chondrites”, the most abundant type of
meteoroid in our solar system originating from the
asteroid belt.
Historical classification
At 9.20 a.m. local time, a roughly 17-m-wide object
entered the Earth’s atmosphere at a shallow angle
near the million-plus Russian city of Chelyabinsk in
the southern Urals region. The object approached
from the southeast at a speed of 18.5 km/s. With an
estimated weight of more than 12,000 t, the bolide
exploded with a force equivalent to 500 kilotonnes of
TNT (equivalent to the explosive force of 30 Hiroshima bombs) at a height of roughly 25 km. The flash
of light released by the explosion was 30 times
brighter than the sun at peak brightness.
Meteorite strikes can impact a variety of policies. Allrisks policies offer complete coverage for damage due
to impact, shock wave and fire. Named perils policies
usually cover fire damage in full, but not damage due
to impact and shock wave. In contrast, natural hazards insurance policies typically offer no coverage for
meteorite strikes. Fire insurance for residential buildings encompasses fire damage, including that resulting from meteorite explosions or strikes. In extended
commercial insurance, there is no coverage for impact
damage as long as this was not explicitly agreed
upon. In the motor own damage insurance segment,
fire and broken glass are covered, whereas “stonechipping” may be excluded. Traffic accidents resulting from a strike are covered under motor liability and
fully comprehensive insurance. Life and disability
insurance policies similarly include such coverage.
Cancellation-of-events insurance may also become
relevant in the case of meteorite strikes, although
these policies are limited to any losses in earnings
and do not cover property damage.
13
Greenland
Trajectory of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid
60˚E
65˚E
70˚E
75˚E
80˚E
85˚E
90˚E
Iceland
Sweden
Sverdlovsk
Denmark
Neth.
Poland
Belarus
BelgiumGermany
Lux. Czech Rep
Slovakia
Ukraine
Moldova
AustriaHungary
France Switz. Slovenia
Croatia Romania
Italy
Bosnia &
Serbia &
Herzg.
Andorra
Montenegro
Bulgaria
Macedonia
U. S. A.
Omsk
Novosibirsk
Portugal
Azores
(Portugal)
Albania
Spain
The Bahamas
Cuba
Guatemala
El Salvador
Jamaica
Haiti
Belize
Honduras
Costa Rica
Astana
Mali
Cape Verde
Senegal
Gambia
Guinea Bissau
Guinea
Venezuela
Guyana
French Guiana
Burkina
Nigeria
FasoBenin
Cote
Togo
Sierra Leone
D'Ivoire
Ghana
Cameroon
Liberia
Equatorial Guinea
Sao Tome & Principe
Colombia
500 km
Peru
Qaraghandy
Niger
Brazil
Angola
Zambia
1,000 km
Paraguay
Chile
South Africa
China
Nepal
Bhutan
Alma Ata
General hazard situation
South Georgia
Island
Thailand
On 15 February 2013, i.e. on the same day as the
Chelyabinsk event, a roughly 40-m asteroid designated 2012 DA14 passed the Earth at a distance of
only 27,000 km. That is less than one-tenth the distance between the Earth and the Moon and closer
than
geostationary70˚E
satellites. Regardless
60˚E the orbit of65˚E
75˚E
of the Chelyabinsk event, this fact caused quite a media
stir, and not just in specialist publications. However,
reconstructions of the trajectories have ruled out any
relationship between the Chelyabinsk meteorite and
2012 DA14, which also originates from the asteroid
belt. The former was not a companion or fragment of
2012 DA14, as is sometimes the case with asteroids.
14
Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia
Djibouti
Somalia
Sri Lanka
Burundi
Tanzania
Malawi
Brunei
Malaysia
Singapore
Uganda Kenya
I
Comoros
Mayotte (Fr.)
Mozambique
n
d
o
n
e
s
i
Papua
New Guinea
a
East Timor
Madagascar
Mauritius
Reunion (Fr.)
Location of explosion
Urumqi
The last time the Earth barely missed a severe collision
was on 23 March 1989, when a 300-m object designated 1989FC (Asclepius) missed the Earth by
approximately 700,000 km, equal to twice the Moon’s
orbital radius. The distance involved may not appear
critical, but in terms of time, the asteroid missed the
Earth by only six hours, because it had exactly crossed
the Earth’s orbit.
A n t a r c t i c a
Impacts by large asteroids are very rare. Although the
principle of “the smaller, the more frequent” generally
applies, objects with a diameter of less than 20 m
usually have no chance of penetrating the Earth’s
atmosphere or causing any major damage on the
ground. The graph on the following page shows the
relationship between the frequency of meteorite
impact events and the kinetic energy released,
according to the latest research. Minor events leave
no trace or damage (at most on satellites or space
stations). In contrast, the impact of an object roughly
1 km in diameter would be so serious that in addition
to severe local devastation, global consequences
would have to be expected (dust clouds with subsequent freezing temperatures even in summer,
destruction of the ozone layer).
Taiwan
Myanmar Laos
Source: NASA-NEO Program
Falkland Islands
Japan
Bangladesh
India
Swaziland
Lesotho
Argentina
Uruguay
North Korea
South
Korea
Trajectory of the meteoroid on
15 February 2013. The blue numbers
mark the altitude above the Earth’s
surface. Entry into the Earth’s atmosphere occurred near the border
between Kazakhstan and Russia.
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Bahrain
Qatar Oman
U. A. E.
Pakistan
Ethiopia
Congo
Gabon
Rwanda
Dem. Rep.
Of Congo
Bolivia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Afghanistan
Oman
Yemen
Eritrea
Sudan
Central African
Republic
Namibia
Kazakhstan
Iran
Kuwait
Egypt
Chad
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
C h i n a
Saudi Arabia
Mauritania
Suriname
Ecuador
Libya
Western Sahara
(Occupied by Morocco)
Dom. Rep.
Nicaragua
Panama
Algeria
Mongolia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Turkey
North Cyprus
Syria
Cyprus
Lebanon
Israel
Iraq
Jordan
Malta
Canary Islands
(Spain)
Kazakhstan
Greece
Tunisia
Morocco
Mexico
Latvia
Lithuania
U. K.
Ireland
100 km
R u s s i a
R u s s i a
Estonia
Russia
Chelyabinsk
Finland
Norway
C a n a d a
Evaluation of the risk
Meteorite strikes are extremely rare but very real threats
to the Earth. If the holistic risk assessment (Risk =
Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposed Assets) is divided
into its individual factors, the following assessment
results:
On the hazard side, no increased or acute threat exists
at this time. However, the limits of predictability must
be taken into consideration: although over 90% of the
potentially dangerous asteroids have now been documented (those that could pass very close to the Earth
on their trajectories), trajectory prediction is subject
to continuous minor changes that can lead to major
deviations over
Another restriction on
80˚E
85˚E many years.
90˚E
predictability relates to comets. They usually come
from the outer regions of the solar system and, on
account of their elliptical orbits, are out of direct
observational range for the longest time (decades to
centuries), meaning that most objects have not yet
been discovered.
Australia
Should an asteroid or comet strike the Earth, the consequences in the case of objects ranging in size from
30 to 500 m in diameter (depending on the chemical
composition) would be similar to those of a classic
natural disaster, such as a tsunami, windstorm, earthquake or volcanic eruption, albeit in their extreme
forms.
With regard to vulnerability, all precautionary measures taken on Earth are largely useless in view of
the tremendous energies involved. Potential defence
strategies and technologies are limited almost en
tirely to the space technology sector, but must first be
developed and tested. Based on an extrapolation of
previous investment and development progress, it is
likely to be several decades before an effective technology for meteorite defence is available and tested.
The liability aspects involved are as yet unclarified.
Which nation (or group of nations) considers itself to
be technically responsible for implementing a de
fence strategy, even if the impact is not a direct threat
to its own territory according to predictions? What if
the defence strategy fails and ultimately only shifts
the location of impact?
On account of the diverse possible manifestations of
the hazard, virtually all lines of established insurance
policies (all risks, fire, motor own damage, life, etc.)
would be affected. If a meteorite were to strike an
urban region, an extreme event would be inevitable.
However, the probability of this occurring remains
several orders of magnitude smaller than that of
major losses caused by other natural disasters, such
as windstorms or earthquakes.
>> T
his article was first published in the 2013 issue of
Topics Geo, our annual review of natural catastrophes. You
can download the magazine or order a printed copy at
www.munichre.com/publications
OUR Expert
Dr. Jan Eichner is a physicist and Head
of the NatCatSERVICE in Geo Risks
Research/Corporate Climate Centre.
One of his principal areas of research
is risks of change and emerging risks
in the field of natural hazards.
[email protected]
Rocks from space – Energy of impact events
Relationship between the occurrence
frequency of meteorite impacts and
the released energy. The Chelyabinsk
air burst was classified in this diagram
by GEO/CCC.
1 billion TNT equivalent (megatonnes)
Chicxulub, Mexico
100 million
10 million
1 million
Source: NASA
Ries Crater, Germany
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
2012 DA14
(only a close fly-by in 2013)
Tunguska, Russia
Meteor Crater, USA
Chelyabinsk, Russia (2013)
0.1
Hiroshima-sized explosion
0.01
0.001
Year
Century
Ten thousand
years
One million
years
100 million years
15
Interview
A sound knowledge of natural hazards forms the basis
for many underwriting decisions
Munich Re established its “natural
hazards” unit back in 1974. At that
time, Peter Höppe’s predecessor,
Gerhard Berz, was the first geo
scientist in Europe working for an
insurance company.
Topics: Mr Höppe, was there a
particular reason at the time for
setting up the natural hazards unit,
which then later became Geo Risks
Research?
Peter Höppe: There was no specific
reason, but even at the start of the
1970s, the Board of Management had
been surprised by a striking accumulation of unusual natural catastrophes
and wanted to gain a better understanding of these phenomena. So
meteorologist Gerhard Berz was
recruited in 1974 and was joined four
years later by geophysicist Anselm
Smolka.
What has changed since then?
From two employees at that time,
the unit has expanded into a team of
around 35 meteorologists, geophysicists, geologists and hydrologists,
who analyse natural hazards today.
For some time now, geoinformatics specialists have also played an
important role, as the tools such as
NATHAN which they develop enable
our underwriters and clients to analyse their portfolios comprehensively
in order to identify and quantify any
natural hazard risks.
Does that mean the core task has
remained the same?
That’s correct. Our aim is to assess
the risks from natural hazards for the
different regions as accurately as
possible, and to analyse the vulner
abilities. This information is then
combined with the exposure data in
risk models, which the underwriters
use as a basis for assessing claims
expectations. So natural hazard
modelling has a significant impact
on our business.
16
For the last ten years, Peter Höppe has
headed Geo Risks Research and Corporate
Climate Centre, which will be celebrating
four decades of investigation and analysis
in 2014.
But have the focal areas shifted?
What are the latest findings?
One new feature is that weatherrelated risks are changing ever more
dramatically. We want to identify
any trends in this area as early as
possible and understand whether the
processes that drive them are attributable to natural cycles or climate
change. To this end, we ourselves
engage in extensive research, while
also working closely with external
scientists and international institutes
to ensure we stay in the vanguard of
research.
We recently published an innovative
paper on the convective, storm-related
events in the USA in the Journal of
the American Meteorological Society.
Also, in our publication “Severe
weather in Eastern Asia”, which
appeared in November, we were able
to demonstrate for the first time the
influence of a natural climate cycle
on typhoon losses. This allows us to
deduce, for example, that we should
expect a period of greater losses over
the next few years, and the 2013
typhoon season with Haiyan may
well be the start of this.
Is there an external demand for
our expertise?
Absolutely. For example, we are in
demand as experts on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). Gerhard Berz contributed to
the third and fourth assessment
reports and so, along with the IPCC
and Al Gore, won a share of the
Nobel Peace Prize. The certificate is
hanging in our offices. Our colleague
Eberhard Faust is one of the lead
authors of the current report.
So Munich Re is maintaining its
warning role?
Yes. We want to create an awareness
of the dangers from climate change,
but we are also increasingly committing ourselves to finding solutions
through climate protection and
adjustment measures, for example
with the Dii desert electricity project
or the Munich Climate Insurance
Initiative (MCII).
>> www.munichre.com/touch/
naturalhazards/en
>> www.climate-insurance.org
Preview 4/2014
Maybe its winter outside …
maybe not.
Weather derivatives have experienced a
remarkable evolution. Nowadays, their
advancing refinement enables much more
sophisticated weather risk management.
Many market leaders in various production
sectors and retail industries have discovered
the benefits of state-of-the-art weather risk
transfer. Read more in the next issue about
how our new unit Munich Re Weather and
Commodities can help you.
>> T
opics Risk Solutions is also available as an
e-mail newsletter. To order, please visit
www.munichre.com/trs/en/newsletter
© 2014
Münchener RückversicherungsGesellschaft
Königinstrasse 107
80802 München
Germany
Tel.: +49 89 38 91-0
Fax: +49 89 39 90 56
www.munichre.com
Münchener RückversicherungsGesellschaft (Munich Reinsurance
Company) is a reinsurance company
organised under the laws of Germany.
In some countries, including in the
United States, Munich Reinsurance
Company holds the status of an
unauthorised reinsurer. Policies are
underwritten by Munich Reinsurance
Company or its affiliated insurance
and reinsurance subsidiaries. Not all
coverages are available in all
jurisdictions.
Any description in this document is
for general information purposes only
and does not constitute an offer to sell
or a solicitation of an offer to buy any
product.
Responsible for content
Group Communications
Editor
Regine Kaiser
Group Communications
(address as above)
Tel.: +49 89 38 91-27 70
Fax: +49 89 38 91-7 27 70
[email protected]
Picture credits
Titel: Corbis
Inside front cover: Robert Brembeck
p. 1: Reuters
p. 2 (1): fotosearch
pp. 2 (2), 12: picture alliance
pp. 2 (3), 3: shutterstock
p. 4: Wetterfotografie.de/
Bastian Werner
pp. 8, 9, 10: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, TomTom, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap
contributors, and the GIS user community | Earthstar Geographics
pp. 11, 15: Fotostudio Meinen
p. 16: Munich Re
Inside back cover: Getty Images
Editorial deadline
2 June 2014
Printed by
Color Offset GmbH
Geretsrieder Strasse 10
81379 München
Germany
Corporate Insurance Partner
CIP offers holistic insurance protection
for industrial and corporate clients
throughout the world. The portfolio
includes coverage concepts for property,
energy, engineering, casualty and
special enterprise risks.
www.munichre.com
corporate-insurance-partner@
munichre.com
Hartford Steam Boiler
Leading monoliner and inspection company
for engineering risks. Apart from engineering
covers, its range also includes specialty and
engineering solutions, claims management
and risk management services.
www.hsb.com
Tel.: +1 800 4 72-1866
[email protected]
KA Köln.Assekuranz Agentur GmbH
Internationally operating underwriting agency
for industrial risks, specialising in marine
and group accident insurance.
www.koeln-assekuranz.com
Tel.: +49 221 3 97 61-2 00
[email protected]
Temple Insurance Company
Temple Insurance Company underwrites large
industrial and commercial risk management
accounts. Our Technical and Special Risk
Department provides property and casualty
products directly through the Canadian broker
network.
www.templeinsurance.ca
Toll free (North America): +1 877 364-28 51
Tel.: +1 416 364-28 51
Fax: +1 416 3 61-11 63
Watkins Syndicate 457
Lloyd’s biggest marine insurer with an extensive
portfolio of solutions for accident and health,
liability, cargo, marine and logistics, offshore
energy, space flight, and yachts. The Watkins
Syndicate operates its own department for
terrorism risks.
www.watkins-syndicate.co.uk
Tel.: +44 20 78 86 39 00
[email protected]
17
© 2014
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft
Königinstrasse 107, 80802 München, Germany
Order number 302-08117

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