Soppe Draft Kit 2015

Transcription

Rankings
Player Projections
Elite Statistics / Analytics
By: Kyle Soppe
Introduction
The NFL season is right around the corner and that means your Fantasy Football juices are flowing. I’m
guessing that since you’ve jumped on board the PFF bandwagon, you’re already counting your winnings
this season, but the victories don’t come without work … or at least the studying of our work. The staff
here pumps out continuously elite content and puts you in the best position to reign supreme in every
league you join: expect 2015 to be no different.
As the Fantasy Football industry continues to grow, the thirst for knowledge expands. Think of it as a
young child who always asks “why?” … owners are interested in raw projections and rankings, but they
also want to know the driving force behind them. That’s where I come in. My name is Kyle Soppe and I
am a statistical analyst/writer/researcher across various platforms for the three major sports (MLB, NBA,
and of course the NFL). I’ve been with Pro Football Focus for a few seasons and decided to roll out my
very own draft kit, one that pulls back the curtain a bit and gives you an all access look into what goes
into administering advice. Am I right with everything? No one is, but I have a reason behind every move I
make and thought it would serve you best to give you a peak at my logic. You’ll notice that my personal
ranks differ a bit from my projection based ranks (Pages 96 and 101 respectively) and that’s because the
projections are designed to serve as more of a starting point based on numerical data than a cheat sheet
for your draft. My ranks reflect how I personally interpret the data and evaluate statistical variability
presented in my extensive analysis. Use the research pieces along with your league rules to make
adjustments, but every good owner starts with a solid foundation.
Also take note that my projections are different from those on the site: that’s not a mistake. Mike Clay
has put together, in my humble opinion, the unquestioned leader when it comes to Fantasy Football
statistics, but how those metrics are used will differ a bit from analyst to analyst. My projection set is
meant to be interpreted, not assumed fact, by the reader. I prefer to let the numbers do the talking, and
while some of my own opinion will be sprinkled in, the intention is more to present data for you to use
when creating your own specific rankings.
I hope you enjoy this kit and feel that it enhances your knowledge. Agree or disagree with my
conclusions, but the idea is to make you a smarter owner and one that is ready to make the upcoming
season the best you’ve had. I appreciate you taking the time to view this product and I am always willing
to discuss Fantasy Sports on Twitter (@unSOPable23) whenever you’d like.
Now … time for the good stuff!
NFC East
AFC East
Dallas Cowboys – Dez Bryant (Page 5)
Buffalo Bills – LeSean McCoy (52)
New York Giants – Odell Beckham Jr. (8)
Miami Dolphins – Jordan Cameron (56)
Philadelphia Eagles – DeMarco Murray (13)
New England Patriots – Brandon LaFell (60)
Washington Redskins – Alfred Morris (17)
New York Jets – Brandon Marshall (62)
NFC North
AFC North
Chicago Bears – Kevin White (19)
Baltimore Ravens – Justin Forsett (64)
Detroit Lions – Joique Bell (22)
Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (66)
Green Bay Packers – Eddie Lacy (25)
Cleveland Browns – Isaiah Crowell (69)
Minnesota Vikings – Mike Wallace (27)
Pittsburgh Steelers –Ben Roethlisberger (71)
NFC South
AFC South
Atlanta Falcons – Roddy White (31)
Houston Texans – DeAndre Hopkins (74)
Carolina Panthers – Jonathan Stewart (33)
Indianapolis Colts – Andre Johnson (75)
New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks (35)
Jacksonville Jaguars – Julius Thomas (79)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans (38)
Tennessee Titans – Delanie Walker (81)
NFC West
AFC West
Arizona Cardinals – Carson Palmer (41)
Denver Broncos – Demaryius Thomas (84)
San Francisco 49ers – Vernon Davis (43)
Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles (87)
St. Louis Rams – Brian Quick (46)
Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree (89)
Seattle Seahawks – Jimmy Graham (49)
San Diego Chargers – Keenan Allen (92)
Player Projections
26 Quarterbacks
43 Running Backs
69 Wide Receivers
22 Tight Ends
Research Topics
Thursday Night Football
Two-year study on the impact of matchup and
rest on QBs and RBs. Who to start and how to
adjust expectations
Impact of Deep Passing
Do you target volume of deep pass attempts or
accuracy on those deep attempts?
Soppe’s Annual Ranks
PPR
Standard
Wide Receiver Pass Distribution
The passing game has exploded: are WR1 or
WR2 improving at a quicker rate?
Schedule Quirk
Soppe’s Projection Ranks
PPR
Standard
What positions should you target against
divisional opponents?
Stat Tracker
Which stats project future success?
Elite Quarterback Impact
Should you roster WR’s and/or RB’s on offenses
with led by an elite QB?
Target Interceptions
They count against your point total, but are
interceptions a good thing?
1-100: Know Your Numbers
A stat for every number 1-100
Staying Alive: Survivor Schedule
Survivor picks for the entire season
Dating Game
Who is your perfect match at QB, RB, and WR
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Dez Bryant
I understand that Odell Beckham Jr. had the eye popping play and was the standout receiver from 2014,
but couldn’t the argument be made that Dez Bryant’s campaign was more amazing? For one thing, he
came into the season known as a game-breaker and was thus the focus of opposing game plans from
day one, but he also played in a run oriented offense. Consider this: Eli Manning dropped back to pass
more often in the 12 games that Beckham Jr. played than Tony Romo did all season long. I’m always
stressing volume as the driving factor to Fantasy success, so the fact that Bryant was able to produce an
elite season in an offense that really didn’t want to throw the ball is astounding. Romo recorded his
most touchdown passes on a per game basis in a season in which he attempted his fewest passes per
contest, leading to some quiet speculation that Bryant is due for considerable statistical regression.
After all, the other six receivers that produced at least 295 PPR points last season saw their quarterback
attempt an average of 592 passes last season, or 27.6 percent more than Romo. His per pass production
is sure to drop, but how will a decline in that respect effect his overall Fantasy value if you assume that
this offense figures to be more pass oriented with DeMarco Murray now in Philadelphia?
The most important part of this projection is reestablishing a baseline for pass attempts in Big D. Prior to
the historic season from Murray, Romo had averaged 378 completions in the three seasons in which
Bryant established himself as a special talent. The strong offensive line would suggest that the Cowboys
will continue to run the ball in 2015, but without a proven tailback, it is reasonable to think that this
offense looks more like it did from 2011-2013 than it did in 2014, so I’m going to use that number as a
guide. Over the last three seasons, Bryant has accounted for 24.01 percent of Cowboy completions, a
rate that projects for 91 catches given our completion count for Romo and essentially mirrors what he
has been doing for the last three seasons. There is a red flag, however, that you need to be aware of.
2014
aDOT: 13.6 yards
Catch percentage: 65.2 percent
Yards per catch: 15 yards (1.10 yards gained per yard of depth of target)
2011-2013
aDOT: 12.3 yards
Catch percentage: 62.8 percent
Yards per catch: 14.29 yards (1.16)
That, my friends, is reason for concern. The odds of sustaining an increased catch percentage while
increasing the depth of target are slim. Maybe the Romo/Bryant connection is on the verge of
something special, but I’m not comfortable assuming that 2014 is the new normal until we see more of
it. Having said that, that explosive season did happen and the rules in the NFL continue to favor the
offense. When it comes to forecasting production, the percentage play is to expect growth from 20112013 and regression from what we saw last year. That logic means we are looking at 64 percent of the
passes being thrown his way being completed (142 targets, 7 more than he saw in 2014) and 14.63 yards
per reception.
His touchdown total has increased every season in the NFL, a trend that is likely to end this year if for no
other reason that it has to end sometime and 16 scores is a tough number to top. Relax … my
suppressed touchdown count isn’t simply the product of it being difficult to improve, it is numbers
driven. In 2014, Bryant had the highest catch rate of passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field (53.6
percent) and scored eight touchdowns on such passes (one more than DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones,
receivers ranked second and third in deep pass catch percentage, combined). When you consider that
Bryant caught an average of 36.3 percent of such passes for 3.7 touchdowns over the previous three
seasons, a repeat of his 2014 success on deep passes is very unlikely. Bryant’s average stat line on deep
passes since 2011 is now a 40.7 catch percentage and 4.8 touchdowns, a much more reasonable stat
line to assume moving forward. The fall in catch percentage was already reflected in our yardage
calculation, but the drop by three touchdowns is worth noting. That would suggest that 13 touchdowns
is likely in 2015, and with his 2011-2014 average of one score per 7.3 catches also indicating that 13
scores is the percentage play, there is no reason to budge off of that total.
Dez Bryant 2015 projection: 91 catches for 1,332 yards and 13 touchdowns
Other Cowboy projections
Tony Romo
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,326 pass yds – 32.3 pass TDs – 13.2 INTs – 51.5 rush yds – 0.3 rush TDs
SOPtistic: Did a strong offensive line help Romo or did Romo help make the line look good? No
quarterback had a higher quarterback rating when the ball left his hand in 2.5 seconds or less.
2015 Projection: 4,280 pass yds – 37 pass TDs – 13 INTs – 45 rush yds – 0 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: Normally, back-to-back seasons in which a quarterback has experienced a drop of at
least 100 pass attempts would be a major red flag, but considering that the workhorse running back that
paced this offense is now sippin’ smoothies in Philly, Romo’s volume should pick back up in 2015. Dez
Bryant is as physically imposing a receiver as there is in the league and I like Cole Beasley/Terrance
Williams duo to continue progress. While the elite run game likely left with Murray, the offensive line
remained intact and the Cowboys (as well as Fantasy owners) are banking on that being the more
important of the two. Romo is the only quarterback to rank among the Top 4 in QB Rating when having
at least 2.6 seconds to throw the ball in each of the last two seasons, making him a smart value play if
other owners fear the impact of a less effective running game. While his attempt rate has been down,
his touchdown-to-interception ratio improved for a second consecutive season, as he is displaying more
patience and value for the football. I’d bet against him leading the league in completion percentage
again, but the expected spike in volume should make him just as valuable as last season.
Joseph Randle
2013-2014 (16 game average): 326.1 total yards and 2.8 touchdowns
SOPtistic: It’s in incredibly small sample size, but Randle averaged 36.5 percent more yards after contact
last season than any other running back with at least 50 touches.
2015 Projection: 928 yards and 6 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: It’s not known how exactly the Dallas backfield will breakdown, but given the success
of their offensive line last season and their commitment to the run game, it is clear that there are
Fantasy points to be had. I’m not a professional talent evaluator, but my money would be on a 23 year
old back who was drafted by the Cowboys to get multiple shots to win this job over a soon-to-be 28 year
old back that has rarely been healthy or productive in his seven seasons, let alone both at the same
time. Randle isn’t going to make Big Blue Nation forget about DeMarco Murray, but all he has to do is
replicate the All-Pro’s worst yardage game from 2014 16 times to be a worthwhile Fantasy option.
Terrance Williams
2013-2014 (16 game average): 40.5 catches – 679 yards – 6.5 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Since scoring his first touchdown, the 25-year-old is reaching paydirt once every 5.3 catches.
2015 Projection: 46 catches – 714 yards – 5 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: The fact that he found a way to score on 8 of his 37 receptions in an offense that
featured an elite statistical season from Dez Bryant and a historical campaign from DeMarco Murray is
nothing short of impressive. He maximized his limited opportunities, and with Murray no longer on the
roster, it stands to reason that he could be even more impressive in 2015. I do worry about the $13.6
million contact that Cole Beasley inked this offseason because it gives him the inside track on an
increased role (right or wrong, it does), but with their skill sets being very different (Williams’ 2014 aDOT
was 16.8 and Beasley’s 6.4), both can succeed. In PPR leagues, Beasley is the safer option, but in a
standard league where you can roll the dice a bit more on home run hitters, Williams is a player to
target in the later stages.
Jason Witten
2012-2014 (16 game average): 82.3 catches - 864 yards - 5 touchdowns
SOPtistic: In the second half of the season, no tight end scored more touchdowns while catching a
higher percentage of passes than the Cowboys veteran. Two for the price of one! The targets were
down, but his percentage per opportunity didn’t take as much of a hit as you’d assume. In fact, his PPR
PPO was nearly identical (0.36) to his 110 catch campaign (0.37) in 2012.
2015 Projections: 81 catches – 888 yards – 6 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: Dez Bryant is still going to be the focal point of this passing attack, but the departure
of DeMarco Murray should result in Witten producing at a reasonable level for at least one more
season. His aDOT continued to trend upward without his catch percentage taking a hit, a nice
combination for a player who has seen a bit of a dip in total looks. There doesn’t appear to be a “pitch
count” on the 33-year-old (he played over 99 percent of snaps last season), so don’t use age as an
excuse for passing on him in the middle of your draft. Dallas is going to throw considerably more than
last season, resulting in a volume bump at the minimum for a proven talent in a dynamic offense.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Odell Beckham Jr.
What the hell do we do with Odell Beckham Jr. for the 2015 season? Are we supposed to buy him as the
class of a loaded wide receiver position in these pass-happy times despite him not having an absolutely
elite quarterback throwing him the ball? Are we supposed to expect the league as a whole to catch on
and prevent this average size human being from gashing them down field with consistency? Where do
we draw the line between “this guy is the next big thing” and the regression that most of us assume will
kick in at some point?
I currently have Beckham Jr. projected as the final member of my top tier of receiver, which means I
clearly buy the talent that we saw a season ago but am not going overboard. To forecast OBJ, I looked at
the resumes of receivers that are currently considered elite to better understand the evolution of a top
notch pass catcher. The seven receivers I have ranked ahead of New York’s Giant (Antonio Brown, Dez
Bryant, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordy Nelson) have had
multiple productive seasons and are now viewed as safe studs, but every receiver was where Beckham
Jr. currently is: a breakout star without a long professional resume. What is the post-emergence futuresuperstar protocol?
I’m glad you asked. Using my best judgment, I took a look at the statistical trajectory of those seven all
stars and identified their “coming out” season: the one in which they first provided significant profit for
their Fantasy owners. I then charted the stats accumulated in the following season in an effort to see
the result of defenses “being ready for a star receiver”. The results were interesting, as type of catch
changed a bit, but the overall Fantasy value was largely unaffected. Despite the majority of these
receivers actually producing more PPR points (on a per game basis) the season following their breakout
than during the breakout, the group average dropped by an insignificant 2.14 percent, or roughly 0.34
points per week. While defenses failed to contain these star players even after a breakout campaign,
they were able to limit the per catch production. The studied receivers combined to see their yards per
catch average decline by 11.20 percent.
The ability to produce after a monster year isn’t uncommon for the elite, but what about repeating the
volume that OBJ owners found safety in last season? Randall Cobb had himself a great 2014, yet
Beckham caught the same number of passes on more targets for more yards last season despite playing
in 25 percent fewer games. Acknowledging the talent is one thing, but I’m always telling you that
volume is just as important as skill in Fantasy: should we project a repeat level of involvement?
I’ll get to the Giants roster in a minute, but for now I’m only worried about the sustainability of high
catch totals as it relates to Beckham. In order to evaluate that, I took a look at the nine receivers from
2011-2013 that averaged at least 6.5 catches per game and followed it up with a healthy season. The
average high volume pass catcher saw his catch count decline by 16.67 percent and his PPR Fantasy
point total drop by 13.64 percent. In fact, 2014 Antonio Brown was the only receiver to improve upon a
season in which he averaged at least 6.5 catches while three of the measured WR’s experienced a PPR
point decline of at least 27.41 percent.
Alrighty, now let’s get into the math behind making a reasonable projection for OBJ’s encore
performance. We will work with his 16-game pace (391 PPR Fantasy points: 121 catches for 1,740 yards
and 16 touchdowns) so that everything is measured on the same scale, thus giving Beckham the benefit
of the doubt in saying that he could have kept this pace for another four weeks. Earlier in the article, I
mentioned that post-breakout receivers experience a 2.14 percent drop in PPR Fantasy points: subtract
8.4 points from his 2014 total (for the sake of projecting a catch/yardage/touchdown stat line, I’m going
to subtract a 14 yard touchdown to account for the 8.4 points).
120 catches for 1,726 yards and 15 touchdowns.
In the second set of data, we learned that receivers who catch better than 6.5 passes per game see their
reception total drop, on average, 16.67 percent: subtract 20 receptions.
100 catches.
Bounce back up to the first study and recall that the average receiver saw his yard per catch total dip by
11.20 percent following his Fantasy coming out part. Adjust expectations from the 14.38 yards he
averaged as a rookie to 12.77 yards in his second season.
1,277 yards.
Now let’s evaluate the state of the Giants improved passing attack. First, we will assume that Eli
Manning’s slight bump in passing attempts (38.5 attempts per game once Beckham took the field in
Week 5) is here to stay: that gives us 616 pass attempts to work with,or the exact number thrown by
Andrew Luck last season. Tight ends saw 18.81 percent of the passes thrown their way in this offense
last season and with no change to the personal at the position, let’s keep it simple and say they are
exactly that involved again in 2015. Last season, Manning targeted running backs with 13.86 percent of
his passes, a reasonable percentage that may have been higher had the versatile Rashad Jennings not
missed significant time. With a healthy Jennings and the offseason addition of Shane Vereen, who had
been targeted with 14.97 percent of Tom Brady’s passes over the last two seasons, is it unreasonable to
say the backfield could see 20 percent more targets? We’ve allocated 35.44 percent of Manning’s 2015
pass attempts and now it is time to take a look at the receiving core. Obviously Beckham enters this
season as the number one option, but don’t sleep on the fact that Rueben Randle saw 20.13 percent of
Manning’s targets last season or that the reportedly healthy Victor Cruz, who is still just 28 years of age,
was the target of 24.98 percent of Manning’s passes over the previous two seasons before the knee
injury cost him the majority of 2014. Now, I’m willing to admit that I like both of these receivers more
than you, but is penciling them in for 30 percent of Manning’s looks a fair compromise? That would
equate to roughly 92 targets apiece, the same 16-game pace that Larry Donnell had last season. “Other”
receivers are going to see passes too, as Preston Parker led a group of lesser known’s that saw 13.37
percent of the targets in this Giants aerial attack last season. If the same cast of characters repeat that
total, we are looking at Beckham’s target percentage dropping from 27.92 percent to 21.2 percent. For
reference, that is a greater percentage of passes than Peyton Manning targeted Demaryius Thomas with
in 2013, so still a more than respectable rate. We will give OBJ the benefit of the doubt and say that he
can repeat his 70.54 percent catch rate from a season ago, even though my better judgment says that
repeating some of those catches is a long shot, leaving us with …
92.12 catches
I’ll round that up to 93 because he proved that he only needs 30 percent of his fingers to make a catch
and over a 16 game schedule that is worth roughly 0.88 catches in my books. Using our figures from
above, a 93 catch season would mean 1,189 yards. I’m a proponent of certain receivers being identified
as red zone targets and I’d say he earned that distinction as a rook, so let’s go ahead and keep him at his
one touchdown per 7.56 reception pace that he set last season.
Odell Beckham Jr. 2015 projection: 93 catches for 1,189 yards and 13 touchdowns
Other Giant projections
Eli Manning
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,059 pass yds – 24.7 pass TDs – 18.7 INTs - 32.3 rush yds – 0.3 rush TDs
SOPtistic: He attempted 3.3 percent more passes than any other quarterback in the second half of last
season.
Kyle’s Conscience: Is there a quarterback in the NFL, or a player in Fantasy sports for that matter, that
has been more of a love/hate option than the younger Manning? We hated to love him in 2010 and
2011, but then we over drafted him and loved to hate him for the following 2.5 seasons. That is, until
Odell Beckham Jr. emerged and put Manning back in our good graces. Well, Beckham is back and he
should be joined by a healthy Victor Cruz, a more experienced Rueben Randle, and the versatile Shane
Vereen: time to jump back on the bandwagon. When things were going good five years ago for the
Giants passing attack, Manning was challenging secondary’s down the field (no quarterback attempted
more passes of at least 20 yards from 2010-2011), and he is trending back in that direction as his
number of such attempts has increased in back-to-back seasons. He set a career-high in completion
percentage last year and appears to be finding a nice balance between efficiency and risk taking. A
healthy Rashad Jennings should help provide balance and take some of the pressure off, while the
return of Cruz and the addition of Vereen should help limit the number of defenders shadowing OBJ.
Don’t be surprised if Manning challenges for a new career-high in yards per attempt this season and is
an unquestioned starter in all leagues (although the Eli-face will still appear and the occasional stinker is
woven into his DNA).
Andre Williams
2014: 851 total yards and 7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Give the man the ball! He averaged 59.2 percent more yards per carry on his second set of 10
rushes than his first set last season. His Fantasy stock followed, as he averaged 14.2 rushing points when
given at least 20 carries and just 5.5 in games he didn’t reach that plateau.
2015 Projection: 704 total yards and 5 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: The next time Rashad Jennings stays healthy for an entire season will be the first and
doing so at 30 years of age is a feat for any running back, so there is hope for the physical style of
Williams. Maybe the G-men give him more consistent work in an effort to keep their starter healthy, but
it doesn’t figure to be enough to land him consistent value. Add in the addition of Shane Vereen and the
ceiling is a limited one, despite my belief in his skill set. If I draft Jennings and want to protect my
investment, Williams is the play, but if you’re looking for a weekly flex option, Vereen is the safer bet
due to his niche being an area of need.
Shane Vereen
SOPtistic: Most would be surprised to learn that he turned just 26 years old this offseason and has
increased his carry count on a per game basis every season.
Kyle’s Conscience: The Giants will be happy with the player they got this offseason, but those looking for
a Fantasy bump are likely to be left unsatisfied. Vereen was used primarily as a pass catcher with the
Patriots, a role I fully expect him to maintain in New York, but what most don’t realize is that he was
quietly working his way into an expanded role. His carry per game count rose every season in New
England, making him a reasonable flex option as it provided another avenue for a handful of points (not
to mention a greater role in the case of an injury). He will still get the occasional carry in New York, but
he lacks experience in the system and is well behind at least two promising talents, concerns that never
really existed in New England. As a receiver, his role is unlikely to be as vital to the success of the
offense. The check-down specialist’s new quarterback has ranked ahead of his old in aDOT in six
consecutive seasons and when you pair that with the promising trio of receivers on the Giants, it is hard
to imagine Vereen approaching the 4.13 catches per game that he has averaged over the last two
seasons. He will give you some production each week, but the ceiling is a low one that doesn’t interest
me in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Rashad Jennings
2012-2014 (16 game average): 1,023.6 total yards and 5.3 touchdowns
SOPtistic: When he was at full health, he was as featured as any back in the league. In his six games
where his snap percentage was at least 60 percent, he touched the ball on 154 of 306 plays. For
reference, that touch rate (50.33 percent) was nearly identical to NFL touch leader DeMarco Murray
(50.56 percent).
2015 Projection: 1,017 total yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games
Kyle’s Conscience: For the fifth time in five seasons, Jennings failed to make it through a 16 game season
and he will enter 2015 at the ever dangerous age of 30. He was averaging a very respectable 12.83
Standard points per week (3 percent more than Justin Forsett averaged last year) prior to getting nicked
in the first week of December and never regaining full health. I’m not doubting the talent, but assuming
that same workload will be there for him this season is a mistake. His strong production was pre-OBJ
breakout and gave the opportunity for the Giants to see some good things out of Andre Williams (two
games with over 100 rushing yards in December), not to mention that Shane Vereen is now a part of this
backfield. Barring any health concerns, Jennings is expected to top the depth chart come Week 1, but he
is a roll of the dice at best when it comes to being a Fantasy starter.
Rueben Randle
2012-2014 (16 game average): 43.7 catches – 616 yards – 4 touchdowns
SOPtistic: The “other” Giants receiver had two games with fewer than 10 receiving yards and wasn’t
used as a downfield option (only one reception on a ball thrown more than 20 yards down field), yet he
finished as only one of nine receivers to be targeted at least 120 times and register an aDOT of13.0 or
better.
2015 Projection: 52 yards – 724 yards – 3 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: You probably didn’t know that he had more receptions than Vincent Jackson and
more receiving yards than Andre Johnson last season, as Randle very much flew under the radar in 2014.
While his year end numbers were solid, they were inflated by a few big games (31 percent of his
receiving yards came in the final two weeks) and his usage was all over the map (the two weeks prior to
that explosion he totaled 39 yards on three catches).With Victor Cruz back, Beckham Jr. now a bonafide
stud, and Shane Vereen in the backfield, there may not be enough footballs to go around to make
Randle an appealing Fantasy option to start the season. But this is a talented receiver who would be
worth a free agent bid should an injury occur to any of the aforementioned pass catchers. You can
probably leave him out of your draft prep, but don’t erase him from your memory.
Victor Cruz
2012-2014 (16 game average): 80.9 catches – 1,079 yards – 6.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Things may change with OBJ in the mix, but it is worth noting that he was on the field for a
career-high 89.1 percent of snaps when he was healthy last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: Don’t forget about him just because of what Odell Beckham Jr. did while he was out.
There has been nothing but good news out of the Giants camp regarding his recovery from a torn
patellar tendon in Week 6, so don’t simply overlook the fact that he had more September receiving
yards than Dez Bryant and targets than Randall Cobb. He isn’t going to be the Giants number one pass
catcher this season, but WR2’s are actually gaining value at a faster rate over the last five years, making
his new role one that can still net Fantasy value. A knee injury is nothing to take lightly, but Cruz is just
28 years old and should benefit from what I expect to be a Fantasy friendly New York aerial attack.
Larry Donnell
2013-2014 (16 game average): 33 catches - 327 yards - 3 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Remember his Week 4 explosion on national TV against the Redskins? He scored the exact
same number of points on TD receptions in that game as he did over the final four weeks of the regular
season when both Beckham Jr. and Randle were playing at a high level.
Kyle’s Conscience: He fits the profile of a productive Fantasy asset, but the situation simply isn’t right. I
very much believe in Eli Manning this season and think he can have four pass catchers return value …
but not the big tight end. With a talented trio of receivers to go along with the newly acquired Shane
Vereen, there simply is no need for a big time season from Donnell. Maybe injuries ravage this Giants
roster, thus creating a niche for Donnell, but that’s a tough sell as I think he is a Fantasy free agent if that
doesn’t occur.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting DeMarco Murray
Change is hard. It just is. As humans, we are programmed to learn how things work, master them, and
get comfortable with them. Change, for better or for worse, upsets our level of familiarity and forces us
to adjust. That is why there are varying opinions on what the move to Philadelphia means for DeMarco
Murray. How will Chip Kelly use him? Will the move from the much hyped Cowboys offensive line hurt
Murray? He had no real competition for touches in Dallas, so how does the addition of Ryan Mathews
and the presence of Darren Sproles affect his usage?
Everything is changing, but does that mean the Fantasy production has to? I’m penciling in Murray for a
near identical season that the departed LeSean McCoy averaged with Coach Kelly calling the shots and
here’s why.
Touches are as important as talent in Fantasy football, making that as good a place as any to begin. For
his career, Murray is averaging a very respectable 20.85 touches per game. Obviously, health is an issue,
but for the sake of projections, let’s say he can match the 16 games he played in Dallas last season. As
the lead back in Kelly’s system, McCoy got his hands on the ball an average of 22.06 times. When trying
to project a touch count for Murray as an Eagle, it is not as simple as finding a middle ground of those
two rates, as Ryan Mathews was also added to the mix. While I don’t think Mathews, a health risk
himself, has a massive role, there is no denying that he has the potential to cut into Murray’s workload a
bit: luckily, we can use Darren Sproles as a point of reference for this. Last season, when Sproles left
New Orleans and joined Philadelphia, McCoy saw his touch rate drop by 7.1 percent from 2013. We can
estimate that the pass-catching back keeps roughly the same role this season and while Mathews plays a
different game, projecting a similar decline in touch count for the Philadelphia lead back is reasonable.
In other words, had McCoy stayed and Mathews still been added, I’d forecast a dip from 22.06 touches
per game to 20.49. I used that number and averaged it with Murray’s career rate to give me my 2015
projection of 20.67 touches per game.
333 touches.
Despite having versatile weapons at his disposal, Kelly has preferred handing the ball off to his
playmakers in the backfield as opposed to making them a receiver in the short passing game. In his two
seasons, running backs have seen 88.7 percent of their touches come via the handoff, a slightly higher
rate than Murray’s career mark of 84.5 percent. This time, I think it is fair to combine the two when
trying to determine Murray’s role in 2015, thus resulting in 86.6 percent of his touches this season
coming courtesy of the handoff.
288 carries.
Over the last three seasons, Murray has racked up 4.71 yards per carry and 7.01 yards per reception. If
he were to repeat those numbers, the result would be a 1,672 yard season. Under the toolege of Kelly,
McCoy averaged 4.65 yards per carry and 8.68 yards per reception, which would equate to 1,730 total
yards using our projected touch counts for Murray in 2015. Normally, I’d simply average those two
numbers together, but when you consider that the Eagles have had an even better offensive line than
the Cowboys over the last two seasons (Philadelphia has finished first in run block efficiency in back-toback years while Dallas has finished second and third), why project a decline in yards per carry? I’m
keeping Murray at the 4.71 yards per carry that he has averaged since emerging in 2012 as his baseline
for the upcoming season and will average out the difference in receiving averages.
1,356 rushing yards and 354 receiving yards.
Time for the fun stuff: touchdowns. Not including his rookie season in which he essentially split time
with Felx Jones, Murray is averaging one touchdown every 37 touches for his career. For the two years
Chip Kelly has been in Philadelphia, running backs score once every 30.6 touches. Take the average of
those two and we are looking at a trip to the endzone once every 33.8 touches in 2015 for Murray, a
rate that essentially mirrors Le’Veon Bell’s scoring percentage from last season.
288 carries for 1,356 yards and 9 touchdowns
45 catches for 354 yards and 1 touchdown
DeMarco Murray 2015 projection: 333 touches for 1,710 yards and 10 touchdowns
Other Eagle projections
Sam Bradford
SOPtistic: His game count is obviously spotty, but the fact that his completion percentage and TD:INT
rate have both increased in back-to-back seasons is encouraging as he enters the #CKE (for those
unfamiliar … #ChipKellyExperience)
Kyle’s Conscience: The players or the system? To an extent, we will find out this season, but let’s not say
Bradford isn’t talented. The truth is, we really don’t know what he is as far as an NFL talent goes. We
enter every season with optimism, but 31 missed games over the last four seasons make him a flier
rarely worth taking: until now. Jordan Mathews and Riley Cooper is a formidable 1-2 punch and
DeMarco Murray is going to command plenty of attention. Kelly’s system and Bradford (he’s still just 27
years old) share one trait that makes this an interesting Fantasy marriage … we have no tangible proof
that it won’t work. I’m buying the Eagles plan, and while that won’t mean drafting Bradford as a QB1,
I’m going to chase that upside if I elect to draft two risky quarterbacks with the hope that one emerges
as my weekly starter.
Darren Sproles
2012-2014 (16 game average): 912 total yards and 6.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Despite a few big games, Sproles’ target count in his first season as an Eagle was lower than
his catch total in any of his three seasons with the Saints.
Kyle’s Conscience: With his second most productive Fantasy season on the ground and the 15th most
receptions among running backs, the veteran’s first season under Chip Kelly has to be considered a great
success. That said, you’re crazy if you’re expecting a repeat performance. He had averaged a shade
under 1.5 rushing touchdowns per season entering 2014, a number that he quadrupled despite carrying
the ball four fewer times than his average from 2007-2013. That rate was due to regress if the roster
had stayed the same, but with two proven NFL backs now ahead of him on the depth chart, the odds of
him not scoring via a handoff are higher than him even approaching last season’s six. While the rushing
spike was nice for his owners last season, the more important trend to take away from his first Eagle
season is his involvement, or lack thereof, in the passing game. For the first time since 2007, he failed to
reach paydirt via the pass, thanks in large part due to his lowest per game reception total since his
rookie year. The best case scenario here is a repeat performance as a receiver and minimal regression as
a runner, but the more likely situation is useless season for Fantasy owners that may feature a random
big game or two.
Jordan Matthews
2014: 67 catches – 872 yards – 8 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He had the same number of games with at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown as
Randall Cobb last season.
2015 Projection: 82 catches – 1,098 yards – 10 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: The Chip Kelly regime drafted Matthews, the Chip Kelly regime held onto Matthews …
the Chip Kelly regime plans on using Matthews. Last season, the talented Vanderbilt product had some
complete no shows in his rookie campaign (three catches for 54 yards in his first two games and a zeroreception zero-target game against the Cowboys despite being on the field 83.9 percent of the plays),
something I very much doubt happens in his second season now that Jeremy Maclin is out of town. I’m
very much buying what is going on in Philadelphia, and while I think the best is going to come down the
road (when Kelly has more than one offseason to mold his roster), I’m essentially looking for Matthews
to maintain the promise he showed in the middle of last season (eight targets per game and a
touchdown every six quarters) for the entirety of 2015.
Nelson Agholor
College Resume: To say he flourished when given the opportunity would be an understatement. After an
uneventful freshen season, this Victor Cruz sized receiver produced 16.4 yards per grab on his 56
catches for USC and showed the type of promise that put him on NFL radars. If teams had yet to take
notice, they sure did after a junior season in which he caught 104 passes and scored 12 times. He only
got better as the season wore on, tallying at least 110 yards in five of his final eight collegiate games and
scoring nine times in the process.
2015 Projection: 49 catches - 617 yards - 4 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: If you’re going to take a flier on a player, why not get a piece of a Chip Kelly offense?
There are some concerns about his long-term versatility, as he profiles as a slot receiver specialist, but
that can have value in a volume offense like we expect in Philadelphia. His ceiling isn’t as high as his
draft mates, but Riley Cooper was able to produce a nice stat line as the WR3 in this offense last year.
Riley Cooper
SOPtistic: His snap percentage dropped significantly, but his catch and target totals rose, something they
have done in each of his NFL seasons.
Kyle’s Conscience: If the addition of Jordan Matthews was enough to strongly impact Cooper’s value in
the negative direction, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the departure of Jeremy Maclin could return
Cooper to his very productive 2013 ways (47-835-8)? Cooper saw just 11 more targets despite the Eagles
throwing the ball 113 more times, dropping his target percentage from 16.5 percent to 15.3 percent. His
Fantasy value is based on his scoring upside, and with a dwindling target rate, that upside was
hamstrung and led to a disappointing 2014 season. I’m not saying Cooper is going to absorb more of
Maclin’s 140 targets than Matthews, or that there are even 140 targets to absorb in what figures to be a
slightly more run heavy offense this season, but is it unreasonable to say that Cooper rebounds from his
57.1 percent drop off in receptions on passes thrown 20 yards down field or his 28.6 percent drop off in
red zone catches? Considering Maclin led the team in “deep” receptions, I don’t think this is a stretch
and believe Cooper is a strong value after leaving owners out to dry last season.
Zach Ertz
SOPtistic: He had 13 receptions in September, 11 in October, 10 in November, and then 15 in four
quarters against the Redskins. Without that outlier of a performance, Ertz is averaging a shade over 2.5
catches per game for his career.
Kyle’s Conscience: Given the unique style of Chip Kelly’s offense, experience and familiarity cannot be
overstated. While Ertz is entering just his third season, he is one of only three (Brent Celek and Riley
Cooper being the others) featured members of this offense that have been in the Kelly system for two
years. He made great strides last season and finished as the 13th ranked tight end despite playing only
50.3 percent of the snaps … there is plenty of untapped potential here.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Alfred Morris
They say if you have two quarterbacks you really have none, so what is the train of thought if you have
three? I’ll leave that for another day, but whoever assumes the role under center in Washington, he will
have a consistent grinder behind him in Morris, a running back that Fantasy owners never love to own
but rarely lose value on.
Morris is what he is … and that has value whether you like it or not. He will have the same number of
highlight runs as you or I, but he will produce at a reasonable level for the entire season and that isn’t
very easy to find after the first round or two of your Fantasy draft. Let’s assume that the Washington
offense we saw in RG3’s rookie season is a thing of the past and that what we’ve seen over the last two
seasons is what we will once again see in 2015. Morris is one of five running backs (some guys named
Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, and Jamaal Charles being the others) to run for at least
1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, a trend that should continue this
season if for no other reason than the schedule. Over that stretch, Morris has averaged just 3.67 yards
per carry and 50.6 rushing yards while scoring just once in five games against the NFC West, a far cry
from the 4.44/77.6/14 stat line he has produced in 27 games against the rest of the NFL. Furthermore,
88.9 percent of Morris’ non-NFC West games have seen him total at least 60 rushing yards or a
touchdown, something he’s only done in 20 percent of games against the West. Morris will only face
one West opponent, and it happens to be a defense in the Rams that ranked dead last in the division in
points allowed/rushing yards while surrendering 33 percent more scores on the ground. Even if we give
St. Louis the benefit of the doubt and assume that can keep Morris in check like their division mates
have in the past, 15 games at 77.6 rushing yards per game and one rushing score every 33.7 carries
makes for a nice season (1,164 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns).
Morris is far from an elite pass catcher, but he was slightly more involved last season and with a player
like DeSean Jackson being the team’s go-to receiver, the need for a check down option isn’t going
anywhere. That said, the fact that he dropped five of the 26 passes thrown to him make projecting any
more than his career average of 103 yards unwise. Add that and the 27 yards that the Redskins totaled
against the Rams last season to his total and you have another season from Morris that resembles what
we’ve come to expect … a stat line that will almost certainly come at a reasonable price on draft day
Alfred Morris 2015 projection: 277 touches for 1,294 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other Redskin projections
DeSean Jackson
SOPtistic: He tied for 23rd in number of deep targets (at least 20 yards) but led the league in receiving
yards gained on deep passes.
Kyle’s Conscience: The color of his uniform changed last season but that’s about it. For the second
consecutive season, no receiver had both a higher deep target percentage and deep catch rate than
DJax. His isn’t thought of as a consistent receiver and I’d guess his style is one that is more actively
avoided than targeted, but try this blind resume on for size (stat lines over the last two seasons):
Player A: 2,429 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns
Player B: 2,501 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns
Player C: 2,554 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns
His style of play, by definition, is going to come with plenty of ups and downs, but his year end totals
have been solid in back-to-back seasons. He managed to overcome questionable quarterback play last
season, an obstacle that he will likely need to overcome again, but don’t cross him off of your cheat
sheet based on his perception alone. Andre Johnson (A), DeSean Jackson (B), and Alshon Jeffery (C) are
the answers to the blind resume above.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Kevin White
“A 22-year-old 6’3” receiver who has the ability to high point the football against NFL corners from day
one and should benefit from playing opposite another supersized pass-catcher that will attract serious
attention. A risk-taking quarterback will lead to some inconsistencies, but that occasionally reckless style
of play should result in a nice Fantasy season as his signal caller will put him in position to make big
plays.” Is that an archived Fantasy scouting report for a rookie out of South Carolina named Alshon
Jeffery, or is it the future forecast for a West Virginia standout in Kevin White?
Fantasy championships are not won on paper, but man, this kid looks the part and is in a reasonably
good spot to help you out sooner rather than later. Given how close his situation is to that of Jeffery’s
three short seasons ago, I’m going to use the Bears current number one option as a baseline when it
comes to projecting White. In 2012, Jeffery accounted for 16 percent of targets and 14.3 percent of
completions in the 10 games he played while Brandon Marshall was busy putting up monster numbers
(118 catches for 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns). Say what you will about Jay Cutler, but you could do
far worse when it comes to a quarterback throwing to your Fantasy receiver and he has averaged 331
completions on 527 attempts per 16 games since pairing Jeffery with Brandon Marshall in 2012. With
Jeffery now fulfilling Marshall’s role, it follows that White will assume Jeffery’s past role, thus making
him a good bet to produce similar percentages that Jeffery did in his rookie year. I’m going to say that
White’s speed edge (his 40-yard dash time was 0.12 seconds faster than Jeffery’s) is enough to cancel
out the concerns about Cutler, thus allowing the rookie to sustain the percentages that Jeffery produced
in his first season and therefore producing 48 catches on 84 targets.
In 2012, one of every eight catches made by Jeffery resulted in six points and I see no reason why White
cannot experience a similar success rate. The Bears will need to work to determine White’s strengths
and weaknesses, but he, much like Jeffery, comes into the league with a reputation as an immediate red
zone contributor. That means six scores and if you use Jeffery’s career average of 14.75 yards per
receptions, you can pencil the rook in for 708 yards. If you’re looking to determine upside, Marshall and
Jeffery combined to average 144.2 yards per game in 2012. Based on my projection for Jeffery this
season (1,394 yards), White could total 914 yards. Should he get to that total, we’d expect 62 catches
and 8 touchdowns
Kevin White 2015 projection: 48 catches for 708 yards and 6 touchdowns
Other Bear projections
Jay Cutler
2012-2014 (16 game average): 3,694 pass yds – 25.8 TDs – 17.2 INTs – 211.9 rush yds – 0.8 rush TDs
SOPtistic: A season after his 65.4 percent ranked second among qualified quarterbacks in percentage of
passing yards gained “in the air”, Cutler’s 2014 mark of 46.5 percent ranked as the fourth lowest.
2015 Projection: 3,929 pass yds – 26 pass TDs –15 INTs - 160 rush yds – 1 rush TD
Kyle’s Conscience: Last season didn’t exactly go as the Bears had expected, so it is easy to overlook the
fact that their lightening rod of a quarterback actually produced career-highs in touchdown passes (28)
and completion percentage (66.0). Matt Forte is one of the best two-way backs in the game today,
Martellus Bennett is a difficult matchup for any defender, and Alshon Jeffery is ready to take over WR1
duties for the departed Brandon Marshall, so the weapons are still in place. Obviously the loss of
Marshall is a major concern, but the cupboard isn’t bare. As good as Marshall is, is it possible that
Cutler’s blind faith in his favorite receiver actually limited his ceiling? Sure, the tandem was good for the
highlight play, but for every big play was a handful of missed reads that could have piled up easy Fantasy
points. Maybe he takes too many chances, maybe he trusts his God given abilities too much, maybe you
don’t like him … but since October 2012, he has just one game (minimum 15 pass attempts) in which he
hasn’t thrown at least one touchdown. He’s far from a safe option, but there were some signs of
progress in 2014 and he is in an offensive system that can produce Fantasy value.
Matt Forte
SOPtistic: Jay Cutler had three times as many runs of at least 20 yards last season than Forte did.
2015 Projection: 1,740 total yards and 8 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: With 102 catches, it was obvious that Marc Trestman fully intended in building a
successful offense against arguably the best dual-threat running back in football. The involvement in the
pass game is here to stay (even with Trestman out of town), especially with the trade of Brandon
Marshall, and you have to like the chances of Forte improving his 3.9 yards per carry behind an offensive
line that has ranked as a Top 6 unit in run-blocking in each of the past two seasons. Touchdowns are the
most unpredictable part of Fantasy Football and they tend to drive overall value, but you should feel
safe about Forte’s touchdown serge in the last two seasons, as it is not by accident. After averaging just
12.5 redzone touches in 2011-2012, he’s been given the rock 30.5 times in the scoring area over the last
two seasons, a clear indication that the Bears have no interest in bringing in a different back to finish off
drives. With consistent touches all over the field and a quarterback who tends to force things when in
trouble, an argument can be made for Forte as the first player off the board in a PPR format.
Alshon Jeffery
SOPtistic: Double digit targets or a touchdown in 10 of his last 13 games.
Kyle’s Conscience: You’d be hard pressed to call last season a banner year for the Bears offense, but
Jeffery managed a Top 10 WR Rating despite his quarterback finishing with the 17th best rating (a tick
above Mark Sanchez and Kyle Orton). My love for Jeffery is simple: he’s an elite talent that is capable of
making all every play on the field in a pass-centric offense. Say what you will about Cutler, but his style
of quarterbacking has been Fantasy friendly to big receivers, and with Brandon Marshall taking his
talents to South Beach, Jeffery could become the next A.J. Green (a top notch talent with a quarterback
who relies solely on him, thus making him a great Fantasy asset despite an average offensive situation).
Try to ignore the stigma that comes with Cutler and remember that the Fantasy world doesn’t mirror
the NFL world: he’s a quarterback you want throwing to your WR1.
Eddie Royal
SOPtistic: He has scored as many touchdowns over the last two seasons as DeSean Jackson.
Kyle’s Conscience: Maybe part of the issue in Chicago was too many elite weapons that possessed
similar skills. By moving Brandon Marshall and brining in Royal, the Bears now have a compliment as
opposed to a mentor for Alshon Jeffery, theoretically giving Jay Cutler an underneath target to check
down to. Now, trusting Cutler to do that is a whole other argument, but the role figures to exist. The 15
touchdowns over the past two seasons are a bit fluky (nine of the scores came in four games), but it isn’t
too much to expect a reasonable yardage total. A low touchdown rate is likely to keep him undrafted in
shallow leagues, but in a deep league, this projection holds value at the end of your draft.
Martellus Bennett
SOPtistic: No tight end was targeted more in 2014, but of the 14 that saw more than 80 balls thrown
their way, not a single one had a lower aDOT.
Kyle’s Conscience: His aDOT dipped significantly for a second consecutive season, but his increased
target rate more than made up for his lack of big-play opportunities. With Jay Cutler remaining in
Chicago and Brandon Marshall moving on, it stands to reason to think that he could get the best of both
worlds in 2015. Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery are still going to demand attention and spread the field
both vertically and horizontally, thus giving the big tight end plenty of room to room, especially in the
red zone. My projection accounts for a slight increase in depth of target and with a return to his 2012
role in New York could put him in line for his first 1,000 yard campaign.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Joique Bell
There was no shortage of movement this offseason with stars like Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy, and
Andre Johnson all finding new homes, but don’t rule out a player in Joique Bell who stayed put when
looking to identify players poised for a strong 2015. Bell assumed the lead back role in Detroit last
season and with Reggie Bush taking his talents to San Francisco, he possesses the rare combination of a
dual threat back that projects as a workhorse. I do like Theo Riddick to hold nice Fantasy value this
season (much like Bell did in 2012 and 2013), but this is Bell’s backfield and he is worth targeting from a
Fantasy perspective.
The Lions get labeled as a pass-happy offense, and while that may be true, it doesn’t mean that their
backfield can’t produce monster numbers. Over the last two seasons, the top two backs in this system
averaged 4345touches, 267 of which went to the “lead back”. We don’t have a great sample size to work
with when it comes to the time share between Bell and Riddick, but we did get a glimpse of what the
Lions could do in games that Bush sat out last season. In those contests, Bell out touched Riddick at
nearly a 3:1 rate and handled nearly every handoff while still remaining present in the passing game. If
we were extrapolate that data over the projected 435 combined touches, Bell would get his hands on
the ball 323 times this upcoming season. That would be the touch ceiling, so I elected to average that
figure with the standard RB1 touch count in a Detroit offense (267) to get my 295 touch projection for
Bell (for reference, Eddie Lacy touched the ball 288 times in 2014).
In PPR leagues, touches are great but you need a catch total to properly assess a player’s true value.
Over the last two seasons, Matthew Stafford has been about as consistent as you could possibly ask for
when it comes to getting his backfield mates involved in the aerial assault. In 2013, 29.9 percent of his
completions went to running backs, a rate that dipped all the way to 29.8 percent in 2014. I’m projecting
the Lions signal caller for 400 completions this season and it would appear to be a good bet that roughly
119 of those are going to running backs. If you factor in that 1.2 of those completions go to a non
Bell/Riddick running back per week (the average rate of passes distributed to RB3’s or lower on the
depth chart over the last two seasons) and keep Bell’s touch edge in non-Bush games from last season,
74 catches would be the result. But, in the lead back role (albeit with Reggie Bush present), the Lions
were more cautious with Bell as a receiver, as 86.8 percent of his touches came via the handoff last
season. If that becomes the norm, we’d expect 256 of his touches to be handoffs, leaving room for 39
catches. That’s a wide range out possible outcomes: let’s dig a bit deeper. Bell saw his per game catch
total decline by 17.2 percent from 2013 to 2014 as a result of his increased work on the ground and if
we took the average of the two calculated catch totals (57 receptions) and factored in that level of
decline, Bell is a mathematically sound choice to haul in 47 passes this season.
As far as how many yards are gained on those touches, Bell’s track record should give us a pretty good
idea. His averages, both in yards per carry and yards per catch, have essentially reflected Lion running
backs as a whole over his three seasons, so don’t expect much change. His versatility and strong set of
supporting talent should limit the number of defenders in the box, making it more possible that he sees
an uptick in yards per carry, but for the sake of this projection, I’m keeping him at his career average of
4.1 yards per carry. I’m forecasting fewer big plays in the passing game, as that was more his role before
he was the lead back and a role I expect Riddick to fill. That said, his yard per catch total has never
dipped below 9.3 yards, so that’s as low as I’m willing to go.
For his career, Bell has scored a touchdown in 61.1 percent of the games in which he has touched the
ball at least 15 times, a threshold I’m projecting he eclipses with regularity in 2015. With little
experience behind him, it seems safe to say that Detroit plans on getting him at least 15 touches in
every game this season, but things rarely go to according to plan in every single game (a mismatch on
Calvin Johnson, an injury, a productive Riddick, etc), so let’s account for that by saying he fails to get at
least 15 touches in two games this season. If he can continue to score at his career clip, that would make
him statistically likely to reach paydirt nine times this season.
238 rushes for 976 yards and 8 touchdowns
Joique Bell 2015 projection: 295 touches for 1,413 yards and 9 touchdowns
Other Lion projections
Matthew Stafford
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,625 pass yds – 23.7 pass TDs – 16 INTs – 96 rush yds – 2.7 rush TDs
SOPtistic: In 2011, he averaged more passing yards per attempt on the road than at home. Since then,
the difference has favored home games at a steadily increasing rate.
2015 Projection: 4,555 pass yds – 27 pass TDs – 13 INTs – 88 rush yds – 1 rush TD
Kyle’s Conscience: A nice little rebound that is going unnoticed. Despite a banged up Calvin Johnson,
Stafford’s completion percentage and TD:INT ratio were both better than the previous two years, a
direct result of his career-low aDOT (8.3 yards). That’s not to say that taking chances down is a bad
thing, but Stafford’s willingness to adapt his game with Megatron at less than 100 percent is an
encouraging sign in the larger scheme. Does he have the perfect balance this season? For what it’s
worth, his previous career low aDOT season (minimum 11 starts) came in 2011; his breakout Fantasy
campaign. I’m not sweating the loss of Reggie Bush as I believe Joique Bell/Theo Riddick can duplicate
the Lions running back production during the Bush era, and a healthy Johnson is a good bet (he missed
more games last year than in the previous three combined). Don’t give up on this talented quarterback
who has finished among the Top 6 QBs in terms of number of drop backs in four consecutive seasons.
Theo Riddick
SOPtistic: The versatile back only played 20 percent of Detroit’s offensive snaps last season and was
utilized as a blocker on a mere 10.3 percent of those plays.
Kyle’s Conscience: Much like Joique Bell when Reggie Bush was the Lions lead back, the Lions are well
aware that they have a weapon out of the backfield and figure to use Riddick in a complimentary role. In
that very role in 2012, Bell got his hands on the ball 134 times and averaged 6.7 yards per touch, so
don’t dismiss Riddick as a reasonable roster filler just because he is the second back in a pass first
offense. It is worth noting that in a three back offense, 20.4 percent of Riddick’s touches came in the red
zone last season, a rate that raises his ceiling as we can assume that his touch count spikes significantly.
That said, don’t get carried away, as Detroit brought in Ameer Abdullah from Nebraska, a dual threat
running back that will figures to get his chance to produce in a similar secondary role to Bell.
Calvin Johnson
SOPtistic: For a second consecutive season, his percentage of receptions that came on passes thrown
more than 10 yards down field increased.
Kyle’s Conscience: He averaged 5.5 catches and 15.2 yards per catch last season after averaging 6.9
grabs for 16.8 yards per in the previous two seasons, a decline in production that shows you how much
the nagging ankle injury hindered this machine of a receiver. In a season with questioned health, a very
productive WR2, and an underwhelming quarterback, Megatron managed to outscore receivers like
Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Wallace in standard leagues despite playing in three fewer games. How does
a floor of roughly 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns sound? He had missed just two games in the three
seasons prior, so I’m not hesitating in drafting this stud simply because of an injury plagued 2014. He’s
not in a tier by himself like he used to be, but he’s one of a handful of receivers that is capable of leading
the position in Fantasy points.
Golden Tate
SOPtistic: Eight of his nine career double digit target games came in his first season with the Lions.
Kyle’s Conscience: His first season in Detroit was a major success, in part because he is a very good
receiver that was previously stuck in a run oriented offense, but also because Calvin Johnson was slowed
for a considerable portion of the season. Matthew Stafford is going to through the ball all over the field,
thus making his number two option a viable threat, but banking on another 99-catch 142-target 1,331yard campaign is a bit optimistic. Tate ranked third in all of football with 53.8 percent catch rate on
passes thrown at least 20 yards down field and averaged 35 yards on those receptions, two numbers
that are a bit high and are a decent bet for some regression. As good as his final stat line looks, don’t
forget that he averaged just 4.7 catches for 60.3 yards and scored a mere one touchdown over the final
seven games of 2014, a stretch over which Megatron averaged six catches for 88 yards and scored five
times. Tate is a nice receiver, but he is not the alpha male in Detroit and will have to take the back seat
more often than he did last season.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Eddie Lacy
Give him the damn ball. It really is that simple. In 2014, 12 of his 13 scores came in victories, but the
trend doesn’t just apply to the Packers, it applies to Fantasy owners as well. During his two years in the
NFL, Lacy has touched the ball more than 15 times or recorded a reception over 20 yards in 24 of his 31
games. His per 16-game numbers when reaching at least one of those plateaus: 1,792 total yards and
15.3 touchdowns. Those might seem like gaudy numbers, but they aren’t that much different than his
pace over the final 13 games of last season (1,742 total yards and 16 touchdowns). Green Bay appeared
to value Lacy more in his sophomore season, as he was used as a blocker on only 16.1 percent of his
snaps, down from 21.8 percent in 2013.
In 70 percent of the Packers regular season losses over the last two years, Lacy has carried the ball 15 or
fewer times, so consider me optimistic that this is the season that he finally joins the elite in terms of
snap count (not to mention that the Packers have seen firsthand what life with an injured Aaron Rodgers
looks like in each of the past two seasons). Leaving DeMarco Murray’s outlier season out, the running
backs that recorded more Standard Fantasy points than Lacy averaged 355 touches per 16 games. Lacy
could reach that mark, but none of those teams have Rodgers under center, so simply projecting that
touch count is a tad too optimistic. It is reasonable, however, to average that total with Lacy’s career 16game average of 313, giving us a 2015 touch count of 334. Rodgers was healthier in 2014 than he was in
2013 and Lacy’s catch total jumped 13.5 percent, a rate of improvement that I feel comfortable
projecting forward considering that Rodgers was still less than 100 percent down the stretch and that
we are expecting a slight rise in total touches any way. A similar jump would mean 48 of those touches
are as a receiver, a nice bonus for PPR owners that should allow Lacy to challenge for the top spot
among running backs in all formats.
The damage he does on those touches is where his overall ranking will be determined. He saw major
increases in his per touch production last season (11.6 percent in yards per carry and 38.6 percent in
yards per reception), but is that sustainable? I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt when it
comes to running the ball, as he has ranked as a Top 4 back (minimum 240 carries) in Elusive Rating in
each of his first two seasons, but the game-breaking numbers as a receiver seem a bit fluky. He’s a tough
tackle, but the fact that he caused four more missed tackles via the reception than a player in Matt Forte
who had 143 percent more receptions seems difficult to repeat. His ability to make defenders miss is
real and his career average of 8.76 yards per reception is legitimate, just don’t expect the growth to
continue and figure in a bit of per catch regression.
The Green Bay offense is going to look very similar to the previous two years, thus making Lacy’s
touchdown rate one we can count on. He has scored once every 25.3 touches his for career, a rate that
projects to 13-14 touchdowns in 2015 given our expectations for his touch count. I find it hard to believe
that he doesn’t rush for a single fourth quarter score this season like he did last, so I’ll round up and give
him that 14th score.
286 carries 1,324 yards and 11 touchdowns
48 catches for 421 yards 3 touchdowns
Eddie Lacy 2015 projection: 334 touches for 1,745 yards and 14 touchdowns
Other Packer projections
Aaron Rodgers
SOPtistic: He hasn’t thrown an interception in a game in which the Packers won since 2013.
2015 Projection: 4,752 pass yds – 39 pass TDs – 8 INTs – 304 yards – 2 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: The Packers didn’t bring in any major pieces, but by retaining Randall Cobb and Bryan
Bulaga, they did all that they needed to. What exactly is the downside here? If Eddie Lacy provides
balance for the entire season and Davante Adams emerges, Rodgers is a solid bet to set a new careerhigh in passing yards. It’s easy to forget that he was an elite quarterback last season despite four games
with less than 200 yards through the air and setting a career-low (minimum of four starts) in rushing
attempts per game.
Jordy Nelson
SOPtistic: He has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 of his last 13 months in which he has caught
more than five passes.
Kyle’s Conscience: In the last two full seasons he has played with Aaron Rodgers (he missed four games
in 2012 and Rodgers sat out seven in 2013), passes thrown Nelson’s way have resulted in 28
touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, resulting in a quarterback rating of nearly 140. Coming off a strong
2013, Nelson was not held out of the endzone for consecutive weeks only once in 2014, dispelling any
myth that he would struggle with the increased attention. You could reasonably argue that his
connection with Rodgers is as good as any in the league, and with him just turning 30 years of age, the
dominance is far from over. The offseason hip surgery isn’t ideal, but it is not expected to hinder his
preparation time and isn’t lowering him one bit in my ranks.
Randall Cobb
SOPtistic: Topped the league in WR Rating (the rating of the quarterback on passes directed toward the
specified receiver).
Kyle’s Conscience: The fact that he scored 50 percent more touchdowns than any other player with a
single digit aDOT speaks to his ability to be an absolute terror when he gets the ball in his hands in
space, something the Packers roster is built perfectly for. With Jordy Nelson taking the tops off of
secondaries and Eddie Lacy punishing opponents both between the tackles and via the short passing
game, there is only so much a defense can do to focus on Cobb, a role that he obviously feels good
about as he elected to stay in Green Bay this offseason. He converted 8 of his 10 catches inside the 10yard line into 6 points, a success rate that may regress a bit, but his involvement in close is going to
remain a strength. The potency of the Cheeseheads offense is going to result in some inconsistencies
(after scoring 10 times in his first 9 games last season he went scoreless over the next 6), as they simply
don’t rely on any one receiver the way a Dallas does on Dez Bryant or Cincinnati does an A.J. Green, but
the efficiency of this offense should more than make up for that over the course of a 16 game season.
He’s a fringe WR1 in annual leagues that comes with a bit more risk than those ranked ahead of him on
a week-to-week basis.
Davante Adams
SOPtistic: In 10 of his 14 regular season games with at least one reception he failed to eclipse 21 yards.
Kyle’s Conscience: If you see a crumpled up piece of paper near a garbage can, it is my “Davante Adams
will win you your Fantasy Football league piece”. I had such high hopes for him, but then Randall Cobb
had to be concerned with winning a Super Bowl and rejoin the Packers. Instead of a full blown breakout,
Adams is now relying on a Cobb or Jordy Nelson (offseason hip surgery) injury to make himself a Fantasy
starter, but even the third banana in an Aaron Rodgers led offense can have weekly intrigue when it
comes to filling out your roster. He is more than capable of filling either role, as his size and aDOT
ranked comfortably in the middle of the two primary weapons, but the odds of his role expanding in a
big way while they are both healthy is slim. I’m treating him like how I treated Harry Douglas over the
past few years: not waiting for an opportunity and as essentially a wide receiver handcuff. He is one of
only a handful of receivers that would step right in to a featured role if given the opportunity, giving him
a ceiling that is worth buying, especially considering how low the asking price is.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Mike Wallace
As inconsistent as Wallace can be on a week-to-week basis (last December he surrounded his best two
game stretch, one that saw him catch 10 balls for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns, with a two game total of
3 receptions for 39 yards and 0 touchdowns), his end of the season statistics have been remarkably
stable throughout his career. He has caught between 67-73 passes per 16 games in four consecutive
seasons, visiting the endzone at least five times in each one of those campaigns. What I find most
encouraging is that his season ending Fantasy production remained stable last season, despite the
second lowest percentage of his targets coming at least 20 yards down field over his six year career. But
can he produce in a Minnesota offense that ranked in the Bottom 5 in both passing yards and passing
scores last season? Let’s do the math.
First, we must project just how many passes are going to be available. In his rookie campaign, Teddy
Bridgewater threw an average of 30.9 passes per game, below league average for a starting
quarterback, but not much different than the 2014 version of Aaron Rodgers (32.5) and not bad for an
introduction to the NFL. The offense figures to expand as a result of his experience, but make no mistake
about it, Bridgewater isn’t going to be slinging the ball all over the field quite yet. The Vikings threw 546
passes in 2013, a season in which Adrian Peterson carried the offense and a trio of incompetent players
were featured under center (Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, and Josh Freeman). I’m not sure
Bridgewater can carry an offense, but I think it’s safe to say that he can be trusted with at least that level
of work, so we will use that as a baseline for 2015. Last season, Bridgewater looked for his number one
receiver, a role Wallace should assume this year, with 18.7 percent of his targets while Wallace
accounted for 19.5 percent of Ryan Tannehill’s in Miami. Take the middle ground (19.1 percent) and we
are looking at 105 passes being thrown in the newest Vikings direction, a slight drop from his career
rate.
To determine his production given that level of involvement, I looked at his career catch percentage
(56.7) and averaged it with Bridgewater’s completion percentage to both his top target last season (Greg
Jennings) and the wide receiver leader in aDOT (Charles Johnson) in an effort to account for two
responsibilities Wallace figures to assume in Minnesota this season. By this logic, we can assume that
MW hauls in 59.8 percent of his targets and thus catches 63 passes this season. With those 63 grabs, I
expect him to gain 860 yards, a per catch rate that was calculated by averaging the yards per catch for
both Jennings/Johnson last season (13.5 yards) and combining it with Wallace’s average over the last
three seasons (13.8).
The touchdown rate requires a bit of creativity given that we are dealing with a small sample size from
Bridgewater and a player in Wallace whose scoring rate has been difficult to nail down (after his rookie
year, his lowest touchdown total came in the season in which he set a career-high in receptions while his
two highest scoring seasons have come with his two lowest per game reception totals). Instead of using
Wallace’s up-and-down career, I just evaluated the two seasons he spent with a new quarterback. He
averaged one score every 10.2 receptions in those seasons, a number I averaged out with Bridgewater’s
one touchdown per 18.5 completion rate from 2014. This resulted in Wallace projecting to find pay dirt
once every 14.35 receptions in his inaugural Minnesota season.
Mike Wallace 2015 projection: 63 catches for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns
Other Viking projections
Teddy Bridgewater
2014 (16 game average): 3,592 pass yds – 17 pass TDs – 15 INTs – 257 rush yds – 1 rush TD
SOPtistic: He didn’t record multiple touchdowns in a single game for the first two months of his NFL
career but he did so in four of his final six games.
Kyle’s Conscience: Don’t laugh, this offense has some real potential to produce through the air. Of
course, their lack of proven talent also means the downside is equally as high. Cordarrelle Patterson,
Jarius Wright, and Charles Johnson are all intriguing young talents that could emerge as nice secondary
options to the newly acquired Mike Wallace, giving Mr. Throwsevelt every opportunity to thrive. The
concern here is that the Vikes don’t unleash their sophomore signal caller, as he ranked in the bottom
10 percent of qualified quarterbacks in all depth of target metrics. He can produce a reasonable
statistical season that comes with limited risk, but in this era of gaudy quarterbacks numbers, the ceiling
just isn’t high enough to peak my interest.
Adrian Peterson
SOPtistic: For his career, AP is averaging 1,915 total yards and 13.5 touchdowns in seasons where one
quarterback accounts for at least two-thirds of the passing yardage … Teddy Bridgewater’s job is pretty
secure assuming health.
Kyle’s Conscience: The man is a beast, it’s that simple. I could tell you that he has never scored fewer 10
touchdowns in a season with at least 12 games or that in his last full season he was a Top 5 back in both
Elusive Rating and Breakaway Percentage, but what’s the point? The lone concern for Peterson is the
fact that he played in only one game last season and that he turned the dreaded 30 years of age this
March. That said, this is the same running back that recorded a career-high touch count the season
following major knee surgery, something that makes Father Time and rust far less intimidating. The
Vikes had a Top 10 run-blocking offensive line in 2014 and with the projected growth of Bridgewater,
this offense could be an effective ball control one that resembles a poor man’s 2013 Dallas Cowboys.
The health risk is enough for him to fall from my top spot in PPR leagues, but there are no statistics that
support dropping him much further.
Charles Johnson
2014 (16 game average): 41.3 catches – 633.3 yards – 2.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He played in the majority of offensive snaps in every game he was active for after Week 10
and led Minnesota receivers in Fantasy points per game over that stretch.
Kyle’s Conscience: With a build similar to that of Sammy Watkins, there is upside for Johnson who isonly
going to improve as Teddy Bridgewater gains experience. The concern for his Fantasy stock is that the
Vikings have a handful of “upside” receivers and I’m not sure that there will be a high enough volume of
pass attempts to make more than Mike Wallace a player worth rostering. Johnson is a more than
capable talent with promise, making him a sleeper pick late in drafts, but understand that the ceiling is
limited, as even the number two receiver in this offense isn’t assured Fantasy value given Bridgewater’s
conservative nature.
Jarius Wright
SOPtistic: He accumulated more Fantasy points in his last four games than Mike Evans, Emmanuel
Sanders, and Mike Wallace.
Kyle’s Conscience: He could be a sneaky option in Minnesota, as his skill set would seem to compliment
that of Mike Wallace nicely. He showed some signs of growth as last season progressed, a trend that
could well continue as Teddy Bridgewater continues to mature. Any sort of bounce back to relevancy
from Cordarrelle Patterson would kill the prospects of a Wright mini-breakout, so don’t get too excited.
There is more risk than reward here, but if you want to finish your draft with him, you’ve got very little
to lose.
Kyle Rudolph
2012-2014 (16 game average): 51.9 catches - 503 yards – 7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Has ability to flourish as a pass-catcher, but the Vikes appear determined to limit his Fantasy
ceiling: in three of his final four games of 2014, Rudolph was used as a run-blocker more than a route
runner, a role he filled in just three of his previous 13 games.
Kyle’s Conscience: His role is going to be similar to that of Mychal Rivera, but he’s got a little more
competition for touches and a bit more of a conservative developing quarterback. His size (6’6” 259
pounds) makes him a natural red zone target, but is Minnesota ready to open up the pass game? I’m not
sure, and even if they do, Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, and Jarius Wright are all
likely to be more involved in this offense than they were a year ago. If they gain stability at the running
back position, there are a lot of weapons vying for looks in a limited pass game. He’s not a bad upside
target in deeper leagues, but I’m not counting on him approaching the nine touchdowns her scored in
2012.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Roddy White
Fantasy Football is a game about numbers, but age is not one that is charted in our leagues. Yes, it can
limit production and generally is inversely related to upside, but dismissing a player because of his birth
certificate is silly if that is your only reason.
The health has been a bit more of a concern, but that is going to be more than incorporated into his
draft day price tag. The Falcons are a pass-happy offense and without a consistent running game, so why
shy away from the proven veteran that is coming off a season with his highest touchdown per reception
rate in five years?
Realistically, nothing has changed. His target count (140 per 16 games) represents a minor decline from
his career norm but made a nice rebound from his 2013 rate and with Matt Ryan attempting at least 615
passes for the third straight season, there appears to be little risk in the offensive philosophy changing
any time soon. During that stretch, White has accounted for 21.5 percent of targets and is catching 64.6
percent of passes thrown his way, making his stats pretty easy to forecast until we see a decline in
ability. In 2014, White averaged his second fewest yards per reception (11.51), but how far should we
read into that? His 11.1 aDOT was just 1.8 percent lower than his average over the previous four
seasons and he averaged 12.83 yards per reception in those games. For the sake of projections, let’s
assume that he maintains the same aDOT and splits the difference between the per catch production
that we’d expect (12.60 yards, a 1.8 percent drop to account for the slight slip in aDOT) and the figure
produced last season.
Fantasy analysts hate touchdowns. We do. A perfectly good projected could be skewed drastically by a
player twice being stopped on the one yard line. Maybe I prefer Antonio Brown to Le’Veon Bell, but if
the stud receiver gets stood up at the goal line and Bell punches it in, we are talking a 12.2 point shift as
the result of one play. Touchdowns are difficult to forecast, but the consistent White has even proven to
be steady in that respect. He has scored 7-11 touchdowns in the last five seasons in which he has played
at least 14 games, consistently averaging 12.5 or fewer receptions per score in the process. If the usage
stays the same, it only makes sense to keep the touchdown rate status quo as well, especially without
the presence of Harry Douglas as a viable third option.
Sign me up for another 632 throws from Matty Ice in 2015 and another solid, and underappreciated,
campaign from the wily veteran.
Roddy White 2015 projection: 88 catches for 1,061 yards and 7 touchdowns
Other Falcon projections
Matt Ryan
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,643 pass yds – 28.7 pass TDs – 15 INTs – 113.7 rush yds – 0.3 rush TDs
SOPtistic: He completed 56.5 percent of passes thrown at least 20 yards down field: 4.7 percentage
points better than any other signal caller.
Kyle’s Conscience: His numbers didn’t drop with the retirement of Tony Gonzalez and as long as Julio
Jones can stay on the field, Ryan will once again reward Fantasy owners with solid production. He does
come with a little more risk this season due to the loss of Harry Douglas, but with no proven ball carrier,
the volume of pass attempts (at least 615 passes thrown in three consecutive seasons) is not in any sort
of danger. If he could establish a greater level of consistency, he’d have a shot to push for a Top 5 spot
at his position, but with one or fewer touchdown tosses in half of his games last year, the floor is too low
on a week-to-week basis to make him a must start.
Tevin Coleman
College Resume: He made giant strides in each of his three seasons in Indiana, finishing his college
career with an impressive, yet under the radar, 2,177 yard season that saw him average 7.5 yards per
carry. He has a similar build to that of DeMarco Murray and has earned raves from NFL scouts for his
willingness to punish defenders at the conclusion of a run as opposed to shying away from contact.
Kyle’s Conscience: Coleman was selected in the third round, one round earlier than Devonta Freeman
was in 2014, a move that suggests he will have every chance to break camp as the Dirty Birds lead back.
As a result of a strong passing game, Steven Jackson was able to total 855 yards and 6 touchdowns last
season despite battling injuries and Father Time, a level of production that I view as the floor for the
starting running back in this high octane offense. His role could be similar to that of 2014 Joique Bell, a
powerful runner in a strong offense that has to surrender some touches to other backs.
Devonta Freeman
SOPtistic: I understand that he isn’t your prototypical lead back and the Steven Jackson was the starter
last season, but he had two … count’em two … carries up the middle last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: It is important to not overreact to one less than impressive season, but with Tevin
Coleman being drafted and immediately being considered a co-starter, this doesn’t feel like a running
back who is going to get the benefit of the doubt. Nearly one quarter of his rushing yards last season
came on two carries and given the explosive nature of this pass game, a consistent grinder (i.e. Steven
Jackson last season and potentially Coleman this year) is more useful when looking to establish balance.
With no proven back on the roster, Freeman is still worth throwing a dart at in the late rounds, but
understand that there is a very real chance he assumes a similar role that he did last season if Coleman
shines in the early going.
Julio Jones
2012-2014 (16 game average): 99.6 catches – 1,498 yards – 8 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Only 12 of his 145 receptions have come inside the red zone over the last two seasons after 11
of his 79 grabs in 2012 did.
Kyle’s Conscience: The potential to dominate a matchup is there (21 catches for 448 yards and two
touchdowns in a two game stretch), but how about some love for his PPR consistency. The last time he
produced fewer than 9.8 PPR points in a game was 2012, highlighting his high floor to go along with his
seemingly limitless ceiling. Over the last eight seasons, we’ve seen some special receivers have some
elite seasons, but the 18 receptions of at least 20 yards by Jones last year was the most for a receiver
who hauled in half of his deep targets. Second to no one. Not to Randy Moss’ historic 23 touchdown
season of 2007. Not to Calvin Johnson’s near 2,000 yard campaign in 2012. Second to no one. The
Falcons will enter 2015 without a proven running back and Harry Douglas, a pair of veterans that
demanded touches: touches that will/should be absorbed by one of the game’s finest talents.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Jonathan Stewart
Could we finally have some clarity in the Panthers backfield? DeAngelo Williams is no longer on the
roster, which gives Stewart the opportunity to take this job and run with it. Of course, that would
require staying healthy, but once again, that will be woven into his draft day price tag. At 28 years of
age, Stewart isn’t young in running back years, but the years of splitting duties have minimized the wear
and tear on his shaky legs, making him a worthwhile one year gamble.
There were nine instances in which Stewart touched the ball at least 14 times last season and he
averaged 5.05 yards per touch in those games. We know the talent is there, but it is important to note
that he averaged 18 touches in those games. If we project that forward, we are looking at 288 touches
over the course of 16 games. The departure of Williams leaves 62 carries unaccounted for and assuming
the Panthers employ a similar run/pass split as last season, Stewart should get 27 of those (he was
responsible for 42.6 percent of non-Williams rush attempts last season).
Those figures have Stewart pegged for a 315 touch season, an optimistic workload when you consider
that Marshawn Lynch got his hands on the ball 317 times in 2014. I’d love to pencil him in for all of those
touches, but, as I’ve said before, projections are about forecasting the event that is most likely to
happen and a 16 game season simply isn’t that. Stewart has missed 22 games over his seven year career,
so we have to subtract that off the top. His average of 3.14 games missed multiplied by his projected
19.81 touches per game mean that we have to deduct 63 touches, giving him a total of 2015 total of
252, a near identical touch count that he recorded in the best Fantasy year of his career. During his
seven years in the NFL, 14.67 percent of his touches have come via the reception, thus giving him an
extra 37 points in PPR formats.
Next to health, the fading touchdown total is what has Fantasy owners worried. Stewart scored 10
rushing touchdowns in each of his first two professional seasons but has just 10 in the five seasons since.
What gives? Well, the Panthers have a touchdown vulture under center and that’s not going to change.
In those first two seasons, Stewart scored an average of 6.5 rushing touchdowns inside the 10 yard line,
a skill he simply isn’t asked to use any more (six such scores since Cam Newton took over under center).
His role as the primary back could return him to his 2011 touchdown rate, but counting on him for much
more than that is a mistake. He scored once every 40.6 touches that year, a rate that would translate to
five scores in 2015.
Jonathan Stewart 2015 projection: 252 touches for 1,273 yards and 5 touchdowns
Other Panther projections
Cam Newton
SOPtistic: Either threw for multiple touchdowns or found the endzone with his legs in 10 of his last 14
games last season after having done so just once in his previous eight games.
Kyle’s Conscience: For the third time in his four professional seasons, Newton ranked as a Bottom 5
signal caller in terms of total accuracy, a metric that subtracts drops and all un-aimed passes. That said,
I’m a bit more optimistic on him than I expect the rest of Fantasy nation to be. If you subtract an awful
two game stretch that included a game against a rolling Seahawks team followed by that dreaded
Thursday Night game and project Newton’s numbers over a 16 game regular season, he finishes with
more total yards than Ryan Tannehill (the eighth highest scoring Fantasy quarterback) and more
touchdowns than Russell Wilson (third highest scoring Fantasy quarterback). Listen, I’m not saying he’s a
must start, but he should be a good value as a result of his underwhelming improvement as a passer. He
still has a consistent tight end, a stud receiver that should only get better, and an offensive line that
cannot possibly be any worse (they graded out as the worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL).
Kelvin Benjamin
2014: 73 catches – 1,008 yards – 9 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Cam Newton completed 48.8 percent of his passes to the rookie and 62.1 percent to all other
players.
Kyle’s Conscience: Only Calvin Johnson and Mike Evans had a higher aDOT and more Fantasy points than
the Panthers talented rookie, and given his Jordy Nelson level target count, there is plenty to like here.
He either scored or recorded double digit targets in 13 of 16 games last year, a usage rate that is
encouraging, even if Cam Newton did very little to quiet whispers about his development as a passer.
Benjamin scored on five of his catches thrown at least 20 yards down the field, a level of efficiency that
is encouraging when you consider that the Panthers really don’t have any other downfield options. This
offense isn’t explosive, but the size of Benjamin makes him a tough cover and volume of looks is simply
not going to be an issue.
Devin Funchess
College Resume: He didn’t produce the type of gaudy college statistics that typically result in a Fantasy
buzz, but his size (6’4” 232 pounds) demands attention as he enters the league as a matchup nightmare.
The excitement around him is going to center around his ability to succeed in the red zone, but with 75
percent of his touchdowns last season coming in a 38 point win to open the season against inferior
competition, that may not be a role he assumes initially.
Kyle’s Conscience: You can’t teach size, but with Kelvin Benjamin offering similar size and Cam Newton
yet to prove consistency when it comes to throwing the ball, Funchess isn’t my cup of tea. Yes, I believe
his numbers at the end of the year will rank him as rosterable, but I’d be looking to sell him high after
one big game as I see his first season in the pros very much resembling his final in college. There are
major concerns about his ability to catch passes with his hands as opposed to his body, something that
didn’t hurt him at Michigan but could severely limit his Fantasy upside as a rookie.
Greg Olsen
SOPtistic: He has tight end best seven consecutive seasons with at least five touchdowns and recorded
career-highs in receptions/targets/yards/first downs last season.
2015 Projections: 85 catches – 1,004 yards – 6 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: Can nothing stop this man from producing? Cam Newton comes into the league and
struggles to adjust to the speed of the game: he produces the same stat line he had the four previous
seasons. Newton regresses in completion percentage: he has a better Fantasy season. Newton sets a
career low in yards per attempt: his production remains unchanged and an extra touchdown results in a
few extra Fantasy points. Newton gets into a nearly lethal car crash: he records the second double digit
catch game of his career. The truth of the matter is that the high floor alone is worth the price of
admission, but the fact that there is still hope for Newton (career-high QBR last season) makes Olsen a
player you simply will not lose value on and there aren’t many players like that in the NFL, let alone at
the tight end position.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Brandin Cooks
The Odell Beckham Jr. explosion last season spoiled us. He set the bar so high that impressive rookies
like Cooks were brushed aside and will likely be a bit of a bargain entering their second season. It may
seem like forever ago, but don’t forget that Cooks caught seven passes for 77 yards and a touchdown in
his debut … as a 20-year-old.
A broken thumb ended his season after 10 games, but he was targeted on 18.8 percent of snaps in
which he was not asked to block, a clear indication that the Saints have big plans for him. The
involvement last season was nice and there is no reason it doesn’t see an uptick this season. Cooks
made 69.8 percent of his receptions last season within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, far and away
the top rate among returning Saint pass catchers and a great omen with Jimmy Graham and his 58 such
catches now residing in Seattle. Furthermore, Brees’ yard per completion has dropped by an average of
5.92 percent over the last two seasons despite a steady rise in completion percentage, a trend that
should have a positive impact on the possession oriented Cooks.
It’d be difficult to argue that the second-year man out of Oregon State isn’t at least the second most
engaged pass catcher in the offense and that’s gold in a Brees led system. The second most targeted
pass catcher on the Saints roster has been thrown to, on average, 114 times over the last three seasons.
Does he occupy that role or does he push Marques Colston for the team lead, a role that has averaged
20 more targets per season over that stretch? If we split the difference in the name of “most likely
occurrence”, as Colston owns a six inch height advantage and the edge in experience while Cooks’
career would appear to have the higher trajectory, we are looking at 124 targets apiece in the upcoming
season.
In 2014, Cooks caught 81.5 percent of passes thrown his way while Brees completed 69.2 percent of his
passes (the second-highest Accuracy Percentage, completion percentage on passes not dropped or
thrown away, of the last seven years), three percentage points ahead of his career average. If we adjust
Brees’ projected totals to his norms as a member of the Saints, we are looking at 631 attempts and 426
completions. That would suggest that Colston and Cooks combine to see 39.3 percent of Brees’ targets
this season, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points ahead of the three year average. Take the average
percentage of targets we calculated would go to Colston/Cooks and combine it with the average
percentage of targets for the top two options over the last three seasons and you get 238 targets for
them to split (119 apiece). We almost have to assume some regression in terms of catch percentage for
Cooks, but maybe not as much as you think. During Colston’s four year run of 1,000 yard 7-touchdown
seasons (2009-2012), he caught 69.2 percent of the passes thrown his way. Given his size, it is safe to
assume that Colston deep ball target percentage will be far above anything Cooks produces, thus giving
him a higher catch percentage ceiling. Colston’s highest catch percentage (76.2) came in 2011, the
season in which his aDOT was at its lowest, further fueling optimism for a very high catch percentage
from a receiver in Cooks who had the fourth lowest aDOT among receivers with at least 50 catches last
season. If we average those three rates (Colston’s four year average, his top catch percentage season,
and Cooks’ rookie year), the sophomore Saint is on track to catch 90 passes (75.6 percent of his targets)
in 2015.
I personally believe that he has the tools to average more than the 10.4 yards per reception that he
produced last season, but until we see it, that is the only number we have to go with. As for the
touchdown rate, that should improve in 2015. He was on pace for five scores last season and when you
consider that Graham’s 10 scores are now out of the picture, Cooks’ touchdown total should more than
double. Last season there were five non-Graham Saints to catch multiple touchdowns from Brees, so
even a conservative projection that divides his touchdowns evenly among those players means seven
trips to paydirt for Cooks this season. Yes, I realize that it is possible, if not likely, that Brees throws
fewer touchdowns this season, but it seems more likely that a player like Benjamin Watson doesn’t get
his piece of the Graham touchdown pie thant a receiver in Cooks whose level of involvement is only
going to increase with time.
Brandin Cooks 2015 projection: 90 catches for 1,106 total yards and 7 touchdowns
Other Saint projections
Drew Brees
2012-2014 (16 game average): 5,097 pass yds – 38.3 pass TDs – 16 INTs – 41.7 rush yds – 1.7 rush TDs
SOPtistic: Only one qualified quarterback threw a lower percentage of his passes at least 20 yards down
the field.
2015 Projection: 4,592 pass yds – 32 pass TDs – 14 INTs - 47 rush yds – 1 rush TD
Kyle’s Conscience: Jimmy Graham’s production dipped (20 fewer targets, 326 fewer yards, and 6 fewer
touchdowns) due to a variety of nagging injuries and Brees was unable to find another viable option,
recording his worst TD:INT rate and lowest yardage total since Graham assumed the starting tight end
duties. Maybe his dip in production was the result of a compromised Graham, but no excuse is going to
matter, as his top target now resides in Seattle. The ceiling for Brandin Cooks is encouraging and the
chronically underappreciated Marques Colston still make this a nice offense, but the loss of Stills might
knock them from the elite passing attacks. Brees has never been the most efficient of passers (16.8
interceptions per year since 2010), making him somewhat of a quantity dependant player. Less attempts
and less big plays bump Brees out of the top tier for me, a sentence I struggle to type given his steady
production for nearly a decade.
Mark Ingram
2012-2014 (16 game average): 877.6 total yards and 6 touchdowns
SOPtistic: His yards per carry decreased with each passing month last season and he averaged just 3.7
yards per carry within the division.
Kyle’s Conscience: He was finally breaking out, then he got hurt, then he continued to break out, and
then he went all Mark Ingram on us and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in December. I’m not 100
percent sold on him as an elite Fantasy back this season, but how many times have we discussed
opportunity driving Fantasy stock just as much, if not more than, talent? That train of thought could well
land Ingram as a RB1 this season, as he was New Orleans’ most trusted player inside the 10-yard line (27
touches) and should benefit greatly from the departures of Pierre Thomas and Jimmy Graham, a tandem
that combined to score on 8 of their 11 touches inside the 10. He averaged nearly 20 touches a game
last season and if he can put together 16 games while taking advantage of what would appear to be a
plethora of scoring opportunities, there is no reason that he can’t build on his nice 2014 campaign.
Ingram supporters aren’t going to love the addition of C.J. Spiller, a player I think will benefit greatly
from a change of scenery, but you weren’t banking on many receptions any way and that figures to be
Spiller’s primary role. It may not be a direct comparison, but don’t forget that Pierre Thomas and Mark
Ingram combined for nearly 1,000 rushing yards in a 2013 offense that saw running backs total 171
catches.
C.J. Spiller
SOPtistic: Spiller gets a lot of love for being a versatile back, but did you know that he has only two
games since Week 9 of the 2012 season with at least five catches … and both came against a team in the
Patriots that is not on the Saints schedule this season.
Kyle’s Conscience: I don’t expect Spiller to lead the Saints in rushing yards this season, not exactly
breaking news there. In Darren Sproles’ first season in New Orleans in which he didn’t lead the team in
rushing, he recorded at least five carries or five catches in each game and missed some time with injury.
History sometimes repeats itself and we may see a very similar campaign out of Spiller in 2015. The
departure of Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham mean that there are touches to be had and Mark Ingram
isn’t likely going to absorb all of them. Spiller’s value is significantly higher in PPR leagues, but I prefer
the safety in touches that comes with an Alfred Morris or Jonathan Stewart right now. Spiller isn’t what I
would call a “safe” option, but there is upside to be had here as long as you understand that the touch
count is going to vary on a weekly basis.
Marques Colston
SOPtistic: He had exactly zero games with more than five receptions and a touchdown last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: I’m still hanging onto him as long as Drew Brees is taking snaps. Jimmy Graham,
Kenny Stills, and Pierre Thomas are all gone, leaving Colston as the lone experienced pass catcher on the
roster. Brandin Cooks possesses more upside and will likely gain more value as the result of the roster
reconstruction, but that doesn’t mean Colston isn’t a viable starter. He joins Roddy White as a receiver
that I will own plenty of shares of as I target an elite WR1 and then wait a bit before filling my other WR
slots.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Mike Evans
His rookie season included a historical run of 458 yards and 5 touchdowns on 21 catches over a three
game stretch that was surrounded by stat lines that you’d more expect from a first year receiver with a
questionable at best quarterback under center (10 games with 55 or fewer yards). While it is near
impossible to project a three game run like that, it is also near impossible to not like the prospect of him
being more involved in his second season (did you know that he was targeted less per game than a
disappointing Keenan Allen and Reggie Wayne?) with Jameis Winston hoping to solidify the quarterback
position.
We have no definitive data to tell us how Winston will produce at the next level, so I’m going to focus on
the direction the Vincent Jackson/Evans duo was headed based on last season, assuming that the level
of quarterback play won’t get worse (206 yards per game and just one more touchdown than
interception while completing 56.7 percent of passes). Jackson saw his target count drop by 11.5
percent from 2013 to 2014, a level of decline that seems reasonable to project forward given his
advancing age and the effort to make Evans the top receiver sooner rather than later. If that’s the case
and we assume that the duo repeats their 16.4 targets per game, we are looking at 141 targets for Evans
in 2015. Blind as we are to the translation of skill for Winston, let’s figure he can complete passes at the
2014 league average of 62.6 percent. That would reflect a 10.4 percent increase from last season and
I’m going to go ahead and make that same adjustment on Evans’ catch percentage. Using that line of
thinking, a 92 catch sophomore season is the number we are looking at.
When trying to determine the level of production on a per catch basis, we must look at both the Bucs
offensive game plan from 2014 as well as how team’s play-calling has been affected by having a rookie
under center. Over the last three seasons, the eight quarterbacks who started at least 10 games in their
rookie campaign have recorded an 8.6 aDOT. That’s considerably different than the 11.0 aDOT that
Buccaneer quarterbacks registered last season, not a major surprise given the strengths of their roster. If
we average the those two figures and apply the difference (-10.9 percent) to Evans’ yard per catch total,
those 92 grabs are going to result in 1,267 yards.
Last but not least, we need to address the touchdown rate. I don’t care who is under center, counting on
Evans to repeat a season in which he tied for the fourth most receiving scores while ranking T-29 in
receptions is simply unrealistic. Under closer examination, Evans was unsustainably productive when in
enemy territory, as he scored on 11 of his 29 such grabs. We’ve taken a somewhat cautious approach
with this projection up to this point, so let’s adjust his scoring rate to mirror that of the premier
freakishly athletic receiver in the game today: Dez Bryant. The Cowboys top pass catcher scored on 29.9
percent of his catches on the plus side of the field during his first three professional seasons, a rate that
would result in 8.7 touchdowns instead of the 11 that Evans tallied on his 29 catches. That’s a two
touchdown drop-off, but the volume of looks should be more than enough to make you feel good about
investing in this soon-to-be 22 year old.
Mike Evans 2015 projection: 92 catches for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns
Other Buccaneer projections
Jameis Winston
College Resume: In two seasons as the starter in Florida State, Winston completed 66 percent of his
passes and tossed 65 touchdowns. Critics will point to his decline in efficiency in his second season, a
season that no longer featured NFL talents in Kelvin Benjamin and Devonta Freeman on his side. His
build resembles that of Ben Roethlisberger, but the 2015 Bucs are not built like the 2004 Steelers, giving
him far greater Fantasy upside than Big Ben had in his early days.
2015 Projection: 3,824 passing yards – 23 pass TDs – 15 INTs – 168 rush yds – 1 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: As a prospect on the field, you have to like what Winston brings to the table. The
question with all elite prospects is about how quickly they can adjust to the physicality/speed of the NFL
and while I believe there will be plenty of ups and downs, Winston’s pair of monstrous wide outs should
help land him on rosters as a roster filler behind your QB1. Just one of Tampa Bay’s first seven
opponents ranked among the Top 14 defenses in terms of pass rush, leaving the door open for Winston
to be playing with confidence as your Fantasy fate is decided.
Doug Martin
SOPtistic: Only three running backs (minimum 25 carries) averaged more yards per carry in December
than the Muscle Hamster.
Kyle’s Conscience: It’s easy to hate on Martin after he teased us with a massive rookie season (1,926
total yards and 12 touchdowns), but let’s not forget that 26-year-old running backs with even one good
season on his resume are not exactly growing on trees. His role is far from safe with the versatile Charles
Sims also in the backfield, but at his price, what do you have to lose here? The Buccaneers had a Top 10
run blocking offensive line and with a rookie under center, the run game is going to be counted on
heavily. Like it or not, Martin led this team in rushing yards last season and is my favorite to do so once
again in 2015.
Vincent Jackson
SOPtistic: Ranked dead last among receivers with at least 95 targets in catch percentage.
Kyle’s Conscience: His role in a questionable at best Buccaneers pass game was interesting last season,
as it changed with the emergence of Mike Evans. During the first month of the season, the veteran
averaged 3.3 catches for 33.5 yards, but managed to find paydirt twice. From that point forward, as
Evans established himself as a threat, Jackson averaged 4.8 catches for 72.3 yards, but failed to score a
single touchdown. The 0 scores seemed to be by design, as he caught only three passes in the red zone
after averaging nine such receptions over the past two seasons. A shakeup at quarterback could change
things a bit, but with Evans’ arrow pointing straight up, Jackson should no longer be counted on for the
seven-plus scores that he had produced for Fantasy owners in five consecutive seasons (minimum 20
receptions) prior to 2014. The 32-year-old Jackson still managed to rank third among 1,000 yard
receivers in aDOT last year, giving me hope that there is upside to chase, but he’s an average WR2 at
best and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish as a WR3 when all is said and done this season.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Carson Palmer
Projecting a 35-year-old quarterback coming off of major knee surgery is no walk in the park, but all
indications point to Palmer being ready for training camp, giving Fantasy owners a glimmer of hope.
I’m not a doctor, so I’m not going to pretend to give you a medical report that determines the
percentage of mobility lost from this injury and the impact it will have in his passing numbers. What I
am, however, is a number-cruncher, that will take the average production from three applicable
situations in an effort to determine what a healthy Palmer is capable of in 2015.
First, let’s look at his per 16 game averages as a member of the Cardinals. Excluding the game in which
he shredded his ACL last season, Palmer is averaging 4,312 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, and
19 interceptions since taking his talents to the desert in 2013. For reference, those numbers nearly
reflect what Philip Rivers produced last season and he finished as the 11th highest scoring Fantasy
quarterback.
Next, it is important to take a look at the numbers that Arizona’s passing attack produced last season.
Yes, the talent drop off at quarterback plays into this, but it is the only way to gauge the talent level on
this roster and what they are capable of. Despite iffy quarterback play at times, they still managed to
rack up 3,990 yards through the air, tossing 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in the process. To put
that in perspective, that was 257 fewer yards and 1 fewer touchdown than Matthew Stafford (the 17th
ranked quarterback) totaled but on 43 fewer completions. I won’t adjust the per pass production here,
but had the offense continued to pass at the rate it had during Palmer’s time as the starter, they would
have thrown another 29 passes, putting them in position to gain 203 more yards and one more score.
Finally, I wanted to compare the current roster construction of the Cardinals to those Palmer has played
with in the past and evaluate his per game production in similar situations. Do you feel confident that
we have a 1,000 yard rusher on this team? Me neither. There have been four seasons in which Palmer
started at least the first five games of a season and did not have the support of a 1,000 yard running
back when all was said and done. His 16-game average for those seasons, again not using games that he
failed to finish due to injury: 4,322 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. It is also worth
noting that Palmer’s most efficient season since ligament damage in his throwing shoulder cost him
three quarters of the 2008 season came in 2012, a season in which five different players saw at least 70
balls thrown their way. Despite a limited passing attack, the 2014 Cardinals saw four players see at least
64 targets, a diverse attack that adds to the hope for 2015 if Palmer can stay on the field.
At the end of the day, projections are a sum of numbers that aim to determine the stat line most likely
to occur. The above averages all have a level of merit when it comes to forecasting Palmer’s 2015
season and deserve to be considered. His final stat line needs to account for the level of talent both he
and this roster posses, which is why the above numbers have meaning. The average stat line produced
from the above math …
Carson Palmer 2015 projection: 4,276 pass yards, 18 rush yards, 25 TDs, and 16 INTs
Other Cardinal projections
Andre Ellington
SOPtistic: The next dynamic talent? Maybe, but his advanced statistics tell a different story. His Elusive
Rating (the ability to gain yardage beyond what was blocked) was half that of the second worst qualified
running back as he had three games where he notched double digit carries and failed to break a run of
longer than seven yards.
Kyle’s Conscience: His profile coming out of Clemson read: “Shows patience running behind pulling
guards and fullbacks, can cut in either direction off the block. Stiff-arm in the open field can be effective
in keeping away defensive backs. Very dangerous in space”. Those traits still exist, but by averaging just
3.3 yards on his 201 carries last season, the transition to the NFL hasn’t been a smooth one. I’d consider
singing a similarly sorrow song to that of Giovani Bernard, but I’m in Ellington’s camp for two simple
reasons. One, I believe that preseason foot injury nagged him and limited his ability to separate and two,
I have no faith that Arizona currently rosters a better option. With Carson Palmer set to quarterback this
team, balance should be more realistic than it was in the latter stages of 2014, thus giving Ellington the
one thing he needs: space. His stock should be down after a disappointing sophomore campaign, which
means I will own plenty of shares in this explosive athlete.
Michael Floyd
SOPtistic: His 19.1 aDOT last season marked the highest rate for any player with at least 50 targets since
2009.
Kyle’s Conscience: Among all players with at least 90 targets last season, no one saw a higher
percentage of his looks come at least 20 yards down field than Floyd and that was without Carson
Palmer making it through the entire season. It is difficult to forecast injuries, but if Palmer and Floyd can
both stay healthy for an entire season, the statistical upside is great for this 25-year-old. The Cardinals
appear interested in exploring that ceiling (he was on the field for 89.3 percent of snaps last year), which
means he is the ideal type of receiver to take once your starting lineup is full.
Larry Fitzgerald
SOPtistic: Not one of the 100 passes thrown in his direction by mediocre quarterbacks was intercepted
last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: Three straight sub-1,000 yard seasons, two of which saw him score fewer than five
touchdowns, don’t exactly have the Fantasy world excited about the one-time Fantasy star. That said,
his production fell off a cliff last season with the Caron Palmer injury, giving us some hope that a healthy
Palmer can help revitalize him. I also have a hard time believing that he evenly splits targets with
Michael Floyd and John Brown again, as he is simply a greater threat. Arizona was home to the second
least accurate quarterback play in 2014, nullifying the impact of their above average pass attempt total.
A healthy Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer should make this a slightly more explosive offense, and
while divisional games are going to continue to be a bear, Fitz should be a solid option the other 10
weeks of the regular season.
John Brown
SOPtistic: Dancin’ John Brown say 19.1 percent of his yards and 40 percent of his touchdowns come on
two explosive plays.
Kyle’s Conscience: Did you know that Brown saw more passes thrown his way last season than DeSean
Jackson or Torrey Smith? Sure, his role as a deep threat leads to inconsistencies (six games with fewer
than 30 receiving yards), but if you’re going to invest in such a receiver, wouldn’t it make sense to chase
targets? I’m not saying he is better than the aforementioned home run hitters, but how can you not the
value given his ADP compared to those “bigger names”? The downside here is that Michael Floyd has
the exact same role, but both players were healthy last season and Brown saw more targets despite
playing considerably fewer snaps (62.9 percent to 89.3 percent).
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Vernon Davis
What happened last year? After scoring at least five touchdowns in five straight season, Davis tallied just
two. After totaling at least 792 receiving yards in four of the last five seasons, Davis managed just 245
(for reference, that was Jeff Cumberland and Chase Ford had higher 2014 totals). The answer doesn’t lie
within the snap count, as he played a similar percentage of the plays and actually ran a pass route on a
higher percentage of snaps than he did in his stellar 2013 campaign, and it isn’t a result of his lack of
depth as target, as he once again was the cream of the crop at the tight end position when it comes to
aDOT.
The answer cannot be statistically explained and while age is becoming a factor, I have a hard time
believing that Father Time sapped Davis’ skills over night like the MonStars in Space Jam. If you recall,
the now 31-year-old tight end was battling an ankle injury in the early months of last season, an injury
that cost him Weeks 3 and 5 but appeared healed when he played 97.1 percent of the snaps in Week 6.
The health didn’t last long, as a back injury then plagued him the rest of the season, and while it didn’t
force him to miss time, he simply wasn’t the same player we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. The more I
study the numbers, the more obvious a bounce back season, assuming reasonable health, seems.
Let’s take a look at Davis’ three best Fantasy seasons. In 2009, 2010, and 2013, he was among the best
in the game due to his ability to make the big play, despite playing with a limited Alex Smith and a
maturing Colin Kaepernick. In those three seasons, San Francisco quarterbacks averaged 17 “deep”
completions and threw only 11.5 percent of their passes at least 20 yards down the field. In 2014, 14.4
percent of Kaepernick’s throws traveled that distance and he completed 22 such passes, meaning that
this could be the most vertical based offense Davis has ever been a part of. Critics will point to Smith’s
efficiency was a significant edge over Kaepernick, but that really hasn’t been the case. In Davis’ two
monster seasons under Smith’s direction, the Niners QB went deep down field with 10.4 percent of his
passes, completing them at a 37.5 percent clip. Not only is Kaep more of a risk taker (14.1 percent of his
throws have traveled the required 20 yards since 2013) due to far superior physical skills, he has also
been slightly more successful on those attempts (38.1 percent).
All of that points to serious regression of the positive variety in 2015, and likely at a discount. In his first
two seasons as a starter, Kaep completed an average of 21.5 deep passes and completed 47.8 percent of
such passes. Furthermore, 39.5 percent of those completions went to a healthy Davis. If we assume that
he bounces back to that level of deep efficiency, Davis is a good bet to haul in eight such passes as
opposed to the one he produced in 2014. Take it one step further, and based on his rate from 20122013, those eight catches would result in 246 more yards and 3 more touchdowns than he gained via
the big play last season. That’s before we account for the changes in this roster.
Before I get into the numbers, it is important to understand that this roster is built for Davis to rebound
for Fantasy owners. I mentioned his three explosive seasons (2009, 2010, and 2013) and the skill set of
his current teammates are eerily similar to the supporting cast he had in those seasons. In 2009 and
2010, a burner in Josh Morgan held the WR2 role. In 2013, the 49ers never established a WR2, as
Michael Crabtree missed 11 games and still finished second among receivers in yardage. The ability of
Morgan to demand attention downfield opened things up for Davis in 2009 and 2010, while the lack of
another pass catching threat in 2013 result in a high volume of targets that drove his production. With
the addition of Torrey Smith this winter, the Niners brought in a far superior speedster that occasionally
disappears (three or fewer targets on five occasions last year) … the best of both worlds for those ready
to invest in Davis.
This offseason, San Francisco lost Crabtree and Frank Gore while they acquired Reggie Bush and the
aforementioned Smith. If we assume that Carlos Hyde steps right into Gore’s bell cow role and combines
with Bush to account for Gore’s 255 rush attempts, the 83 carries he recorded as a rookie could be
absorbed entirely by the passing game without. Even if we take the conservative approach and say that
half of his 2014 efforts are reallocated to the pass game, we are looking at a very reasonable 529 passes
thrown by Kaepernick this season. Heading into 2014, Davis was the target of 14.7 percent of passes
thrown, catching 61 percent of those balls in the process. That would mean 78 targets and 48 receptions
in 2015.Since 2012, the year that Smith and Kaepernick essentially split the season, Davis is averaging
13.81 yards per reception and is scoring once every 5.95 touches.
Vernon Davis 2015 projection: 48 catches for 663 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other 49er projections
Colin Kaepernick
SOPtistic: Played one more game than Alex Smith in the second half of the season, yet he threw for
fewer yards and touchdowns than the “game-manager”.
2015 Projection: 3,650 passing yds – 21 pass TDs – 11 INTs – 542 rush yds – 4 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: Safe to say 2014 was his Fantasy floor? He got essentially nothing most weeks from
Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, threw for multiple touchdowns only four times, tied for the league
lead in teammate drop percentage (7.1 percent), and threw fewer red zone passes than Geno Smith!
The departure of Frank Gore might prove to be a good thing for Kaep, as it could result in more rushing
touchdowns (only one last year despite a career-high 104 rushing attempts) for him and one more
capable pass catcher on the field with more regularity. The division he plays in is going to limit his
upside, but with the addition of Torrey Smith and a potential rebound of Davis, this offense figures to be
more Fantasy friendly than the black hole it was last season.
Carlos Hyde
2014 (16 game average): 458.3 total yards and 4.6 touchdowns
SOPtistic: The 49ers are the only offense with back-to-back-to-back Top 3 rankings when it comes to run
blocking efficiency of their offensive line.
Kyle’s Conscience: The departure of Frank Gore figures to help the value of Hyde more than the addition
of Reggie Bush hurts it. Small sample size driven, but Hyde did manage to average more yards after
contact than Jamaal Charles last season and finished with a higher Elusive Rating than Eddie Lacy. He
isn’t in the class of those the elite, but he is in line for a heavy workload in a run-first offense and
displayed the type of potential worth investing in.
Anquan Boldin
SOPtistic: He has moved the chains on 71.4 percent of his receptions over the last four seasons.
Kyle’s Conscience: His two seasons in San Francisco have been near carbon copies of one another and
while the consistency is great, it may symbolize his ceiling for the upcoming season. Torrey Smith figures
to bring more to the table than Michael Crabtree did last season and the versatility at running back is
likely to cut into Boldin’s third down role (39.8 percent of his catches and 41.8 percent of his yards came
on third down last year), changes that probably make the Niners offense more efficient as a whole but
less lucrative for the wily veteran. Kaepernick’s ability to consistently move the ball through the air is a
concern and considering that only three receivers were targeted more and had a lower aDOT than
Boldin, the low floor isn’t offset by a strong ceiling.
Torrey Smith
2012-2014 (16 game average): 54.3 catches – 916.7 yards – 7.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: His percentage of targets that have come at least 20 yards down the field has decreased in
back-to-back seasons, but his new quarterback in Colin Kaepernick has actually thrown a higher
percentage of deep passes over the last two seasons than his previous in Joe Flacco
Kyle’s Conscience: While the deep attempt percentage from Kaepernick is encouraging, his completion
percentage has been tumbling ever since he assumed signal caller duties for the Niners. Could that
change with the addition of a burner like Smith? Sure, but this is still a pass game that is going to be
limited in volume, has a strong possession receiver (Anquan Boldin), and should get a bounce back
season from Vernon Davis. There is week-to-week upside here, especially given that San Francisco is
likely to play in higher scoring games this season as a result of their losses on defense, but Smith has
never been the model of consistency and doesn’t project as such in his new home. Roster him as a
reserve and hope that you catch lightening in a bottle when you are forced to plug him in.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Brian Quick
Looking for a receiver who showed signs of greatness but is likely to be an afterthought to many
owners? You’ve found your man. There were just three players through six weeks last season that
owned an aDOT over 15.5 and had caught at least 20 passes: Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, and Quick.
We know the story with Megatron … he’s an athletic freak and one of the best in the game. The
inclusion of Quick in this list is obviously encouraging, especially when you consider that the quarterback
responsible for putting Maclin in this company will now be throwing passes Quick’s way in St. Louis.
That’s a major step forward when you consider that despite those deep ball numbers, Quick managed
just two catches last season on balls thrown at least 20 yards down the field. Nick Foles followed up his
tremendous 2013 campaign, one in which he was the unquestioned top quarterback when it comes to
downfield production, with a number one ranking in deep touchdown tosses through the first half of last
season before injuries sidelined him. These may be small sample sizes, but pairing a potentially lethal
strong armed quarterback with an Alshon Jeffery sized target who showed promise last season despite
below average NFL talent throwing him the rock is well worth the asking price.
The Rams made it a point to focus on their offense during the draft, loading up on the offensive line
after selecting Todd Gurley with their first pick. Considering that St. Louis played all of last season with
reserve quarterbacks and a makeshift offensive line, not to mention less than seven full games without
their number one receiver, it shouldn’t be a surprise that they ranked 23rd in pass attempts. While I’m
not expecting them to break any volume records, I’m going to use their 557 pass attempts of 2012, the
last season in which their projected starting quarterback made it through the entire season, as a
baseline for the upcoming campaign. Foles owns a career completion percentage of 61.8 percent, a
success rate that would equate to 344 completions if he can make it through the entire 2015 season.
During his time in Philadelphia, Foles targeted his number one receiver with 27 percent of his passes and
that player accounted for 26.5 percent of his total completions. That would put Quick on the fast-track
for 91 catches on 150 targets this year, totals that are reasonable if he can stay on the field (he was on
pace for 84 catches after the first month of 2014). But given that both Quick and Foles have yet to play
since their injuries, assuming 100 percent health, both to start the season and to last for the entire four
month grind, is not the percentage play. Instead of blindly guessing how many games both will play, I’ll
use Quick’s production from last season as a way to balance the optimism that comes to town with
Foles. Excluding the game he left early with the season-ending shoulder injury, Quick’s 16-game pace
was 64 catches on 99 targets. If we average that rate with the one from above, the Rams top receiver
projects for 79 catches on 125 targets.
Using that stat line, we can determine his yardage total. Foles is averaging 7.56 yards per attempt over
his career while Quick is averaging 15.4 yards per reception. By combining both of those rates, Quick’s
79 receptions will be turned into 1,079 yards. His touchdown rate is difficult to forecast without knowing
the exact focus of this offense, but we can formulate a solid statistical prediction by evaluating the rate
at which past WR1’s have found paydirt under the watch of Foles. Since the beginning of 2013, Foles’
top receiver has accounted for 32.5 percent of his touchdown passes, and given my projection of 22 TD’s
for him this season, that would put Quick in position to catch 7-8 scores. I’m going to round down to
seven as one final precaution for the potential of missed time.
Brian Quick 2015 projection: 79 catches for 1,079 yards and 7 touchdowns
Other Ram projections
Nick Foles
2012-2014 (16 game average): pass yds –pass TDs –INTs –rush yds –rush TDs
SOPtistic: He has thrown more deep touchdown passes over the last two seasons (21 games played)
than Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning combined for last season (32 games).
2015 Projection: 3,554 pass yds –22 pass TDs –11 INTs – 168 rush yds – 2 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: How much of his production over the past two seasons has been a product of playing
in the Fantasy friendly Eagles offense? While I think he has enough talent to be a reasonable asset, the
Rams simply don’t have much proven talent around him and will likely struggle to give him much time in
the pocket. I’m no genius, but less time in the pocket is going to make sustaining his high level of
production on deep passes difficult, thus lowering his ceiling. Sharing a division with three strong
defenses isn’t ideal either, as the only way St. Louis is going to compete is to control the clock, a style of
play that will affect Foles’ volume of attempts. Combine the change in environment with his checkered
health history and you have a non-factor in standard leagues.
Todd Gurley
College Resume: In three seasons at the University of Georgia, this 6’1” 222-pound bruising back
(roughly the same build as Arian Foster) totaled 3,900 yards of offense and scored 42 touchdowns. He
had surgery in November to repair a torn ACL in November and is expected to start his NFL career on the
sideline with a trip to the PUP list possible.
2015 Projection: 876 total yards and 6 touchdowns in 10 games
Kyle’s Conscience: I love the talent, but I hate the offensive line and, from a redraft Fantasy angle, the
patience that the Rams are likely to use when dealing with this potential franchise changing back. His
physical build and raw athleticism are that of an elite back, the only question is how quickly that
translates to Fantasy stardom. I believe he is a starting option once he proves he is healthy, but
understand that the downside of snap count is very much in play. Watch the recovery from the ACL
carefully, but his ceiling is certainly worth chasing if you’re confident with the running backs you select
before him or decide to go with the increasingly popular zero running back strategy.
Tre Mason
2014 (16 game average): 1,217.3 total yards and 6.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in seven of his nine games after being handed the
lead role in Week 9.
Kyle’s Conscience: Mason was the most talented back in St. Louis and I’m not sure it was close … and
then the draft happened. The fact that he ranked third among running backs who were trusted with at
least 25 percent of their team’s carries in Breakaway Percentage last season is encouraging, as is his
sneaky power (he forced as many missed tackles as Jeremy Hill despite carrying the rock 43 fewer times)
in an offense that needs stability in the run game to set up the evolving pass game. He totaled 913 yards
despite being on the field for just 51.1 percent of plays, all encouraging signs if he has a consistent role
in this offense: I just don’t think he will. I’ll listen to those who want to say that a rookie running back is
far from a safe bet, but there are four other young running backs on this roster as well, so even if Todd
Gurley’s knee isn’t healed, Mason is no lock to assume the “bell cow” label. There is enough talent here
to take a flier in the final rounds, especially with the belief that he is likely to open the season as the
Rams starter, but understand that your investment is a good bet to decline when you need him most.
Jared Cook
SOPtistic: Had he caught 70 percent of the passes thrown his way and maintained his yards per catch
average, Cook would have finished with the eighth most receiving yards among tight ends.
Kyle’s Conscience: As mentioned with Brian Quick, all downfield threats in this Rams offense should see
a significant bump in Fantasy value with the arrival of Nick Foles. Cook has caught just four balls in two
St. Louis seasons that were thrown at least 20 yards down field, a total I expect him to exceed this year
alone. This offense has exactly no proven pass-catchers, giving Cook’s Fantasy value a chance to far
outshine his talent level (for the record, I don’t think he’s a very good football player, but, crazy as it
sounds, that doesn’t rule him out of being a Fantasy starter).
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Jimmy Graham
Odell Beckham Jr. may be the most hotly debated player(LINK) among players expected to be drafted in
the first round or two, but as far as players with a track record, there is no player generating more
interest than Jimmy Graham. He’s clearly an elite talent, but he is joining a much more conservative
offense in Seattle, putting his role into question. Go ahead and throw opinions out there, I’ll listen, but
why not let the unbiased statistics do the talking?
In order to be willing to understand this projection and these numbers, you must first clear you head of
all preconceptions. How do you do that? With numbers of course. Here are four reasons why the hate
for this move has gone too far and the skill sets of Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham aren’t as
diametrically opposed as you assume.
-
Despite setting a career-high in rushing attempts last season, Wilson actually attempted a pass
on the highest percentage (82.8%) of his drop backs in his professional career.
-
Over the last two seasons, 66.1 percent of Graham’s catches and 53.8 percent of his yards have
come on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards down field.
o
Wilson’s number of short completions has increased each season in Seattle. He has
completed 73 percent of those passes and a career-high 50 percent of his touchdown
strikes came on passes thrown fewer than 10 yards down field last season.
-
Wilson has tallied 58.7 percent of his career passing yards outside of the hash marks.
o
-
Graham has scored 61.5 percent of his career touchdowns outside of the hash marks.
Wilson’s aDOT last season was greater than that of Drew Brees. In fact, 11.5 percent of Wilson’s
passes traveled at least 20 yards in the air, a significant edge over the 9.7 percent rate of Brees.
o Graham leads all tight ends in “deep” touchdowns since first becoming a Fantasy asset
in 2011.
See? This connection may not be as damning as first assumed. I presented those facts not to convince
you that Graham is going to be better than ever in 2015, but as a way to offset any negative bias you
may have had. Now that you’re confused on whether to believe those numbers or go with your original
thought that Graham’s Fantasy stock is set to regress in a major way, let’s evaluate this new connection
and determine what you can count on from a Fantasy perspective.
First, we must start with the growth of Wilson and his involvement in the offense. From his rookie year
to his second year, his percentage of passes thrown jumped by 3.56 percent and in the following season,
it jumped another 11.06 percent. I’m not going to project that progression to continue at that rate, but
is it unreasonable to take the average increase in passing volume (7.31 percent) and use that as an
attempt baseline for 2015?
Take that average improvement and we are looking at 485 pass attempts in 2015. But wait, there’s
more. Drew Brees saw his per game pass attempt count increase by 10.2 percent in his five seasons with
Graham compared to his four seasons in New Orleans without the superstar tight end. I’d certainly
entertain the idea that Wilson could see a similar bump, but given that Brees never played with a
Marshawn Lynch level running back and the rules have changed to favor offenses since Graham entered
the league, simply projecting similar growth is a bit dangerous. But in the interest of gauging impact,
could we not say that Wilson’s pass total is impacted at least half as much as Brees’ (plus 5.1 percent)?
That would put us at 510 pass attempts, which would mean 323 completions at his current 63.4 percent
career completion rate.
Over the last two seasons, Wilson has targeted his top pass catching threat with 22.82 percent of his
passes. Assuming that rate remains steady, that would suggest that 116 balls are thrown in Graham’s
direction and if we use Wilson’s 63.4 career completion percentage as a base, that would mean 74
catches for his new weapon.
Now that we have a catch total, we can project yardage. For his career, Wilson is averaging 7.95 yards
per attempt, a rate that would pencil Graham in for 922 yards on his 116 targets. Graham owns a career
average of 12.3 yards per reception, a level of production that would lead to a 910 yard projection for
his 74 catches. Assuming that neither one of these players experience any sort of physical decline, and
with them both being under the age of 29 this seems reasonable, averaging out those two yardage total
is the right move: 916 yards.
As we all know, catches and yards are nice but touchdowns are what ultimately pay the Fantasy bills.
Over the course of his three year career, 9.07 percent of Wilson’s passes have resulted in six points.
Going back to our projection of 323 completions, which would imply 29-30 touchdown tosses is well
within reach in 2015. Wilson’s touchdown pass percentage to non-receivers has risen each season in the
NFL and sits at an even 50 percent over the last two seasons, suggesting that it is statistically likely that
14-15 touchdowns go to non-receivers. For their careers, Graham averages a touchdown reception for
every 11.67 targets while one of every 17.39 of Wilson’s pass attempts finds paydirt. Once again, I will
use the average rate and say that one of every 14.53 passes thrown from Wilson to Graham result in a
score. Apply that to the 116 targets we calculated earlier and you’re left with eight touchdowns.
Jimmy Graham 2015 projection: 74 catches for 916 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other Seahawk Projections
Russell Wilson
2012-2014 (16 game average): 3,317 pass yds – 24 pass TDs – 8.7 INTs – 625.7 rush yds – 3.7 rush TDs
SOPtistic: Completed 36.7 percent more passes behind the line of scrimmage than passes thrown more
than 10 yards down field.
Kyle’s Conscience: For the second consecutive season, his pass attempt total increased, but it didn’t
come with a significant bump in Fantasy production. In fact, he set career-lows in pass yards per attempt
and finished with less touchdown tosses per game than Austin Davis. Fortunately, the running stats (as
many rushing yards as C.J. Anderson and one more rushing score than LeSean McCoy) more than made
up for the Fantasy regression through the air. Counting on rushing stats from a quarterback is
dangerous, and given the success the Seahawks have had with limited pass attempts, a change to a
Fantasy friendly philosophy is unlikely. Pay for stability, but 2014 was more of a ceiling than what you
should expect.
Marshawn Lynch
SOPtistic: You want a running back whose team depends on him? Well, 96 percent of his rushing
touchdowns have come in victories over the last two seasons.
Kyle’s Conscience: Beast Mode is impossible to tackle and given the Seahawks recent run of success, it
would be foolish to think that this offense starts anywhere but with their violent back. In other words:
don’t read into the final offensive play of Seattle’s 2014-2015 season. His rushing numbers are as stable
as any back in football (four straight seasons of 1,200 rushing yards and at least 11 rushing scores), but
his Fantasy ranking entering 2015 will depend on how sustainable his receiving numbers are. I can buy
into the idea that he is an improved pass-catcher and more involved, but even if that is the case, can you
really count on four receiving scores again from a back that caught four touchdowns in his previous 76
games? The Fantasy community was worried about other running backs cutting into his workload last
season, a concern that no longer seems reasonable. He’s a rock solid pick, but his upside isn’t as high as
many of the players selected in the first round.
Doug Baldwin
SOPtistic: In five of his six least productive Fantasy games (minimum one catch) over the last two
seasons, a non-receiver caught a touchdown pass: Jimmy Graham is now a Seahawk.
Kyle’s Conscience: He is a gritty receiver who ranks among my favorites when it comes to picking up
tough yardage, but that doesn’t translate nicely into the Fantasy world. The Seahawks are the two-time
defending champions of the NFC thanks to a run-centric offense, so what incentive do they have to get
Baldwin more involved? They brought in Jimmy Graham and have seen the trio of Richardo
Lockette/Chris Matthews/Jermaine Kerse show promise, making the veteran chain-mover a Fantasy
after thought. His fearless nature (he had 19 percent more receptions on third down than any other
down last season) raises his floor a bit, making him a decent bye-week filler, but you can’t be counting
on Baldwin on a consistent basis.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting LeSean McCoy
Much like Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy spent the offseason frustrating Fantasy owners. OK, so maybe
that wasn’t the goal, but it is certainly the result of his change of address, as the player friendly system
that Chip Kelly runs in Philadelphia is unlike any other in football. To complicate matters, McCoy is
headed to an offense in Buffalo that is being retooled to fit the strengths of their new head coach Rex
Ryan. There are plenty of moving pieces to evaluate before slapping a Fantasy value on Shady, so let’s
get to the number crunching.
Ryan began his head coaching career in 2009 and spent the last six seasons in New York. Maybe it’s the
state of New York, but Ryan has left one seemingly hopeless quarterback situation for another, leading
me to believe that is offensive philosophy could be similar to the “ground-and-pound” approach he had
with the Jets. Well, that and the $40 million spent to bring in McCoy. Over those six seasons, the lead
back totaled 1,459 carries for 6,087 yards and 43 touchdowns in Ryan’s offense. Those statistics are
eerily similar to the career numbers for McCoy: 1,461 carries for 6,792 yards and 44 touchdowns. Crazy,
right?
Shady did miss six games in those six seasons, so his per game production is a bit better than the
traditional Ryan backfield leader. Average those two sets of data on a per game basis and we are looking
at 15.7 rushes per game, 4.4 yards per rush, and a touchdown every 33.5 carries.
McCoy is not your average back though, as he is capable of dominating defenses as a pass-catcher.
During his reign in Green and White, Ryan’s offenses threw 489 passes per season, not exactly the 569
that McCoy got accustomed to seeing while in Philadelphia. A successful marriage is all about give and
take, so let’s say those two trends meet in the middle and the Bills attempt 529 passes in 2015. Using
their success rate (62.7 percent) from 2014, a season that featured similar uncertainty at the
quarterback position, would forecast 332 completed passes this season.
Before projecting a reception total for McCoy, we must first determine how many of those passes will
end up in the hands of him or any other running back on this Bills roster. Last season, the Bills talented
set of backs accounted for 30 percent of all receptions. While that rate is high, Ryan led teams have
made it a point to involve the running backs too, as backfield members totaled 21.8 percent of
receptions in his offenses. Again, we will take the middle ground and project that 25.9 percent of
Buffalo’s completions (86 passes) go to running backs.
Now it’s McCoy time. Philadelphia completed 1,946 passes in games McCoy played in, 300 (or 15.4
percent) of which he was responsible for. That would leave us with a 51 catch season based on the
projection of 332 team completions, but we need to cross analyze that with the skill of the other backs
in Buffalo. Last season, Fred Jackson assumed the lead back duties and was responsible for 60.6 of the
receptions by running backs. There are at least 40 million reasons to believe that role is McCoy’s this
season and a similar catch percentage would project 53 catches. How does a 52 catch season sound in
2015?
The damage he does with those receptions is a bit difficult to forecast, as Ryan only has two seasons
with a truly elite receiving back. He coached post-peak LaDainian Tomlinson and saw him average 8.7
yards per reception from 2010-2011. McCoy had an outlier season in 2013 as a result of the insane
success of Nick Foles, but if you subtract that from his resume, he averages 7.0 yards per catch. For a
final time, we will take the average (7.85 yards per catch) and apply it to the 52 catches we projected.
McCoy has caught multiple touchdowns in four of his last five seasons and LT did so in his final year with
the Jets, so I’m penciling in two receiving scores this season.
252 carries for 1,109 yards and 8 touchdowns
52 catches for 408 yards and 2 touchdowns
LeSean McCoy 2015 projection: 304 touches for 1,517 yards and 10 touchdowns
Other Bill projections
Fred Jackson
SOPtistic: Only 15 backs (minimum 200 touches) averaged more PPR points per opportunity than the
Bills veteran.
Kyle’s Conscience: Being a reserve for an injury-prone and relatively unproven C.J. Spiller is one thing,
but backing up a well compensated franchise changer in LeSean McCoy is another. While the coaching
change to Rex Ryan should keep Jackson, and every other back on the roster, involved, I’m having a hard
time envisioning the veteran continuing to find a way to return value. If you want to protect your McCoy
investment, I’m fine with it, but short of a serious injury early in the season to McCoy (not a great bet
when you consider he has missed one fewer game in his six year career than Spiller did in 2014 alone),
he has no chance at reaching those 16-game averages from above.
Sammy Watkins
SOPtistic: He recorded 53.4 percent of his receiving yards in four big games.
Kyle’s Conscience: Don’t look now, but Watkins is the focal point of an offensive that has some
firepower. The stability in the run game should prove to be as important as the continued growth of
Robert Woods and the addition of Percy Harvin, as it has the potential to allow Buffalo to overcome
shaky quarterback play. Normally, I’d be worried about target distribution when a team adds offensive
weapons, but the disparity in talent (nothing against Harvin, Woods, or Clay, but Watkins’ ceiling is just
so much higher) is too much to ignore and should allow him to sustain a high usage rate. I’m not thrilled
about Darrelle Revis staying within the division (Watkins caught just five balls for 84 yards and no
touchdowns in two games against New England last season) and the quarterback play is likely to result
in the occasional stinker (he had two games with fewer than 20 receiving yards last season), but a year
of experience should go a long ways in raising his floor. I’d look for 2015 to be the same in 2014 in the
sense that we see the “superstar” potential at times, but that we also see the “young receiver” less,
meaning he doesn’t repeat the 10 games in which he had three or fewer receptions.
Robert Woods
2013-2014 (16 game average): 56 catches – 686 yards – 4.3 touchdowns
SOPtistic: When he is involved, he is very efficient. He caught over 81 percent of the passes thrown his
way in games in which he scored a touchdown last season. Not bad in an offense that had saw
quarterbacks finish 17th in accuracy and 20th QB Rating.
Kyle’s Conscience: I like the talent here, but I’m not optimistic about his Fantasy upside in 2015. The Bills
most explosive back was injured, their top receiver a rookie, and their “run Spiller until he throws up”
offensive game plan turned into the eighth highest volume passing attack in the league (once Kyle Orton
took over in Week 5), yet Woods couldn’t produce more PPR Fantasy points than low upside players like
Greg Jennings and Doug Baldwin. A healthy LeSean McCoy is now the focal point of the offense, Sammy
Watkins has a year of experience under his belt (not to mention Percy Harvin was added), and Rex Ryan
coached teams are far from elite through the air. In other words, the table was set for a breakout season
and Woods underwhelmed. I still think the talent is there, but I fear that the opportunity won’t be, and
that’ll make producing a rosterable stat line a long shot.
Percy Harvin
2011-2014 without 2013 (16 game average): 129.3 touches – 1,166 yards – 5.9 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He caught six touchdown passes in 2011 but has accounted for just six touchdowns since then.
2015 Projection: 105 touches – 979 yards – 4 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: I don’t want to say that the Bills struggles to find a capable quarterback could actually
help Harvin, but that could well be the case. I like the idea of him rejoining a coach that he has already
played for, especially when you consider that successful Rex Ryan teams have employed a low-risk pass
game that suits the versatility of Harvin well. With Sammy Watkins stretching secondaries and LeSean
McCoy demanding extra attention, getting Harvin in space for which ever game manager starts under
center is something we can expect to see a lot of. It’s been four seasons since Harvin was of any use to
Fantasy users, and while I don’t think you’re looking at a repeat of 2011 (139 touches for 1,312 yards
and 8 touchdowns), I’ll gladly take the “over” on every Fantasy metric he has produced since.
Charles Clay
SOPtistic: In the second half of last season, no tight end averaged more catches per game and owned a
higher catch percentage than Clay.
Kyle’s Conscience: Versatility is huge in the NFL these days and it is hard to argue that there is a more
flexible tight end in the league today. That being said, is the opportunity there in Buffalo for him to
break out? His quarterback situation got worse (regardless of who wins the job) and the weapons that
will compete for touches improved. The Bills ranked as the fourth worst blocking offensive line, so it
would stand to reason that Clay’s do-it-all skill set could be used more in that regard than helping a Rex
Ryan offense that already has more weapons than he will know what to do with. He’s a better player
than a Mychal Rivera or Jared Cook, but that’s a moot point if the usage rate isn’t high enough for his
stat line to reflect the edge in talent. The QB situation is worse, but given the coin that he will be
making, targets should be there.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Jordan Cameron
A severe concussion cost Cameron any chance at repeating his stellar 2013 campaign, but that doesn’t
make him any less talented or any less capable of producing in a big way for Fantasy owners in 2015.
While missing six games is less than ideal, he was on the field for 86 percent of December plays and saw
his snap percentage increase for each one of those games, an indication that his health troubles are
behind him. We cannot rule out him suffering another concussion and thus missing even more time, but
forecasting another blow to the head is not something you can simply count on either. His draft stock is
likely to be lower than his raw ability: should you take a chance on the second best athlete this decade
with two first names to take his talents to South Beach?
Before I dive into the numbers, allow me to remind you of how special Cameron was prior to an injury
plagued 2014. In his lone healthy season, he caught 80 passes on 117 targets for 917 yards and 7
touchdowns from the combination of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, and Brian Hoyer. He was able
to put up Top 5 PPR numbers at his position despite only 36.3 percent of his catches coming in enemy
territory. He was able to do so because of the mismatches he provided downfield, as Jimmy Graham was
the only tight end in 2013 with more catches and a higher aDOT than Cameron. That stat is even more
astounding when you consider that Weeden and Campbell ranked 25th and 38th respectively in terms of
deep ball accuracy out of the 40 qualified quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill has had his own issues with the
long pass, be his completion percentage on such attempts did increase by nearly five points last season
and he has shown more hope at competency that either former Cleveland signal caller.
Alright, now onto the numbers. During that strong 2013 showing, Cameron was the target of 17.2
percent of the Browns total pass attempts. That figure coincides nicely with the rate in which Tannehill
targeted Charles Clay over the last two seasons (17 percent), making this transition a natural one with
Clay now in Buffalo. If we assume that Cameron is going to be treated as one of Miami’s top two pass
catchers, the target percentage grows. Tannehill hasn’t been shy about looking his top targets’ way, as
42.6 percent of his pass attempts have gone in that direction since 2013. By splitting that number down
the middle and averaging it with Cameron’s target percentage and Tannehill’s tight end target
percentage, I’m projecting that Cameron sees 18.5 percent of Miami targets this season. Considering
that Tannehill has posted back-to-back seasons with near identical attempt totals, marking him down for
589 tosses and 374 completions is a safe bet.
The above math would make Cameron a statistically likely bet to be the target of 111 passes. I like
Charles Clay as much as the next person, but there is no denying that Cameron is the more talented of
the two options. I’ll say that the talent level offsets the negative impact of having to develop a
connection with a new quarterback and that the Tannehill/Cameron combination can combine to mirror
the completion percentage that the Tannehill/Clay duo had: 67.9 percent. That leaves us with a 76 catch
season, and by averaging Tannehill’s career yards per completion (10.93) with Cameron’s yard per catch
(12.31), we can project 883 yards to be gained on those receptions.
Last but not least is the touchdown tally, the most important aspect when it comes to evaluating
Fantasy upside.
Over the last two seasons, Tannehill’s top touchdown scoring pass-catcher has accounted for 24.2
percent of his red zone completions and has scored on 60.9 percent of those receptions. Furthermore,
87.5 percent of that receiver’s touchdown total for the entire season has come inside the opponent’s 20
yard line. The number of red zone completions for the Fins quarterback has increased dramatically in
consecutive seasons (up 85.7percent in 2013 and another 43.6 percent in 2014), but you can only expect
so many passes to be thrown in close. It is difficult to envision his completion totals to increase at the
current rate, but asking him to repeat his totals from last season, a year in which he completed more red
zone passes than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers, doesn’t seem like a stretch. That would
mean we can pencil him in for 56 such completions, and if we assume Cameron is the top scoring threat
on this offense, that equals 14 red zone receptions for eight touchdowns. The past has taught us that
those eight touchdowns are likely to be 87.5 percent of Cameron’s 2015 total, putting him on pace for
nine end zone dances this season.
Jordan Cameron 2015 projection:76 catches for 883 yards and 9 touchdowns
Other Dolphin projections
Ryan Tannehill
2012-2014 (16 game average): 3,751 pass yds – 21 pass TDs – 14 INTs – 253.3 rush yds – 1.3 rush TDs
SOPtistic: No quarterback attempted more passes and had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in
the season’s second half.
Kyle’s Conscience: In his third season as the ‘Fins play-caller, Tannehill’s Fantasy stock continued its
steady rise, as he established career-highs in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns,
touchdown-to-interception ratio, and rushing yards. In fact, if you subtract dropped and un-aimed
passes, the pride of Texas A&M was the most accurate AFC quarterback (minimum 500 pass attempts),
ranking ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the process. Losing nearly 56 percent of his touchdown passes (Mike
Wallace, Charles Clay, and Brian Hartline) isn’t ideal, but by adding Kenny Stills and banking on growth
from Jarvis Landry, this Miami offense should still be viable through the air. His continued improvement
is reason for optimism, but paying for much more than what you got in 2014 isn’t the percentage play.
Lamar Miller
2012-2014 (16 game average): 906 total yards and 4.3 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He finished as a Top 10 back in standard leagues despite recording as many 100 yard rushing
games as Denard Robinson.
Kyle’s Conscience: He’s only 24? While it feels like he’s older, Miller is the unquestioned lead back in an
offense that is on the up-and-up. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and
Justin Forsett are the only other running backs since 2012 to have a season in which they averaged at
least 5.1 yards per carry and touched the ball 250 times: not bad company for a player rarely considered
a stud. While the Dolphins are tying their franchise to Ryan Tannehill, the fact that Miller received 50 red
zone touches last season speaks volumes about their trust in their lead running back. He doesn’t boast
the consistently of the unquestioned RB1’s (270 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the final two
weeks after totaling 311 rush yards and one touchdown in the previous six weeks), but with a workload
that should remain stable, Miller is more trustworthy than the public perceives.
Kenny Stills
SOPtistic: He eclipsed 40 yards in only four games that he failed to record a reception of at least 40
yards.
Kyle’s Conscience: The name on the back of the jersey is shorter, but Stills is replacing a player in Mike
Wallace who was the same build and possessed the same skill set. That’s not a bad thing, as Wallace
produced 67 catches for 862 yards and 10 touchdowns last season and Ryan Tannehill continued his
gradual, but constant, improvement. Stills was pigeon-holed in his rookie season but showed that he is
more than just a deep threat in his sophomore campaign, lowering his aDOT by 25.1 percent and
increasing his Fantasy consistency in the process. The quality of quarterback play decreased as a result
of this move, but I expect the increase in usage to have a greater impact, thus allowing him to build on
his 63-931-3 stat line from last season in 15 games.
Greg Jennings
SOPtistic: One of the most versatile receivers in the game over the last two seasons, as he has 44
receptions on first down, 44 on second down, and 39 on third.
Kyle’s Conscience: The circle of life is a funny thing. If we are lucky, we come into this world as needy
infants and prepare to leave it as a member of the needy elderly community. In the middle portion, we
gain independence until a certain point, plateau, and eventually give back our independence little by
little. The circle of life regarding an NFL career often takes the same mold, albeit in an expedited fashion,
and no receiver projects as a better example of that than the almost 31 year old Jennings. He entered
the league in 2006 as a promising talent, but finished his rookie season with less catches than Donald
Driver and Ahman Green. He spent one more season getting his NFL legs under him and then went on a
three year tear in which he totaled 3,670 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns, stringing multiple 16 game
seasons together for the only time in his career. Since that run of high-end production, Jennings has
been aging gracefully for the most part, slowly declining but doing enough to remain on our Fantasy
radars. But, like he was in his rookie season, Jennings doesn’t project to have a major role in his first
Miami season, a belief that was further solidified when the ‘Fins selected DeVante Parker with the 14th
overall selection in the draft and brought in Kenny Stills from New Orleans. Yes, they lost Mike Wallace
this offseason, but Miami clearly is building an offense for the future … a future Jennings likely won’t
have much, if any, impact on. For the sake of symmetry, I’m giving Jennings the exact catch total of his
rookie season, but it comes at the lessened level of per catch production that we’ve seen from him over
the past three seasons. It’s been a good run Greg, but you are no longer worth stashing in anything but
very deep leagues.
Jarvis Landry
SOPtistic: Highest catch percentage among receivers targeted at least 70 times, but also the second
lowest aDOT (5.5 yards) of 115 qualified WRs.
Kyle’s Conscience: Believe it or not, there were other rookie receivers that had strong seasons not
named Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, or Mike Evans. In a normal season, Landry’s 84-758-5 stat
line (on 105 targets) would be viewed as a great start to career, but in 2014, it was an afterthought.
Don’t make that mistake. He scored double digit PPR points in each of his last nine games and with Mike
Wallace in Minnesota, is it possible that Landry is Julian Edelman 2.0? He profiles as a chain-mover, so
his ceiling might not be as high as you’d like, but his floor is certainly an elevated one, a rarity for such a
young player. He should see an increase in targets, and given his 80 percent catch rate, any uptick in
looks would make Landry a draft day bargain.
DeVante Parker
College Resume: Any worries about the foot surgery that forced him to miss the first seven games of last
season disappeared as he totaled 43 catches, 855 yards, and five touchdowns in the final six games of
his Louisville career.
Kyle’s Conscience: At 6’3”, he has the height to dominate smaller corners and with 4.45 speed, defenses
can’t simply put a big/physical defender on him. In other words, he is a tough cover for every defense
out there and gets to play with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who continues to take steps forward.
Furthermore, the Dolphins lost Mike Wallace this offseason and give this physically impressive rookie
every opportunity to earn consistent playing time. His floor is a relatively high one and if he can add
some bulk to his frame, he could well be the best rookie receiver in 2015.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Brandon LaFell
He was drastically under drafted last season and I’m still not sure Fantasy owners realize the value he
provided. In 15 games last season, he out produced high ceiling guys like Sammy Watkins/Jordan
Matthews and competed with stable veterans like Steve Smith/Anquan Boldin … all of whom played the
full 16 game schedule. The move from Carolina to New England did his Fantasy stock wonders, but that
is not why he projects nicely in 2015.
His favorable grade heading into this season is a result of his stability: he didn’t do a damn thing
different last season than in previous seasons. Sure, the numbers spiked a bit, but there was nothing to
suggest that it was a fluke, thus making a second season in the same system with a similar supporting
cast a reason for optimism. But don’t take my word for it; allow the numbers to tell the story.
New England in 2014
-
aDOT: 11.4
64.9 percent of passes thrown to him resulted in a completion, 1.4 percentage points higher
than Tom Brady’s career completion rate.
19.6 percent of Brady’s passes were thrown in his direction
He was responsible for 21.2 percent of Brady’s touchdown passes
Carolina Panthers 2012-2013
-
aDOT in Carolina: 11.7
61.2 percent of passes thrown to him resulted in a completion, 1.7 percentage points higher
than Cam Newton’s career completion rate
26.3 percent of Newton’s passes were thrown in his direction
He was responsible for 21.4 percent of Newton’s touchdown passes
Scary how close those metrics are. LaFell is the same receiver he has always been and his usage is very
similar, it’s just a better passing offense. Brady’s volume of passes was down a bit last season, but that
was more a result of his own success than it was anything else. If you subtract a blowout victory in
Minnesota and a meaningless Week 17 game against Buffalo, his 16 game pace was 623 attempts, two
passes behind his average over the three previous seasons, a rate I feel confident projecting for the
upcoming season.
LaFell’s target percentage increased in a big way after gaining a season of reps with Newton (10.8
percent of targets in 2011 and 17.8 percent in 2012), but he also saw a higher percentage of Brady’s
targets than the average WR2 did in 2011 and 2012 (the last two seasons in which Rob Gronkowski
played at least 10 games). Let’s call the expected gain from familiarity and the expected regression to
the WR2 healthy-Gronk mean a wash, meaning LaFell is a solid bet to once again be targeted with 19.6
percent of Brady’s pass attempts. If we bring his completion percentage back a tad to his career rate of
63.5 percent and take the average improvement in completion percentage that quarterbacks have
experienced over the last three seasons when throwing to LaFell, we can pencil him in for a 65.1 catch
percentage and thus 79 catches on his 122 targets.
Taking it one step further, let’s average out Brady’s career yards per attempt (7.35) with LaFell’s career
yards per reception (13.9) to calculate his per catch production for 2015. Using that math, I see him
averaging 12.68 yards per grab and thus tallying his first 1,000 yard season. With his touchdown
percentage seemingly locked in to 21 percent of his signal callers total and my projection of 34 scores
for Brady, LaFell is reaching pay dirt seven times.
Brandon LaFell 2015 projection: 79 catches for 1,001 yards and 7 touchdowns
Other Patriot projections
Tom Brady
SOPtistic: Threw multiple touchdowns without throwing an interception 28.6 percent less often than
Russell Wilson.
2015 Projection: 3,223 pass yds – 27 pass TDs – 8 INTs – 30 rush yds – 1 rush TD in 12 games
Kyle’s Conscience: Despite a slow start to 2014, Brady once again proved to us why he is among the best
to have ever played the position, piling up strong numbers despite an iffy at best supporting cast. The
faces will look similar this season, but Shane Vereen will not be serving as a safety blanket out of the
backfield. I’m not sure that this loss is getting enough attention, but betting against Brady is something I
have very little interest in doing. He still has the best tight end on planet Earth (or whatever planet
Gronkowski is from) and has a weapon in Julian Edelman that at least one GM thinks is the “toughest
cover in the NFL”. His post-September numbers nearly mirrored the great Aaron Rodgers (3,317 passing
yards while completing 71 percent of his passes for 29 touchdowns against Rodgers’ 3,382 yards/69
percent/29 touchdowns stat line), making it reasonable to project him among the elite of the second tier
signal callers on a per game basis.
LeGarrette Blount
2012-2014 (16 game average): 705.5 total yards and 6 touchdowns
SOPtistic: The Patriots have 5.3 percent more rush attempts over the last two seasons than an offense in
Kansas City that is typically labeled as “run first” and has an elite tail back.
Kyle’s Conscience: Marshawn Lynch is a difficult tackle, right? What if I told you Blount was 35 pounds
heavier, has taken one-third the punishment, and actually came out of college with a faster 10-yard
dash time? No, I’m not putting the two in the same Fantasy stratosphere, but the 4.94 yards per carry he
averaged as a member of the Patriots from 2012-2013 is not a fluke and either is the fact that the most
stable franchise in professional sports brought him back. My projection is conservative because …. well,
because it’s the Patriots (see Gray, Jonas). If the past is any indication, New England is going to run the
ball 25-30 times per game, and if Blount gets even two-thirds of those carries, we are looking at a very
solid RB2.
Julian Edelman
SOPtistic: More drops (11) than the seven other receivers who caught at least 74 percent of passes
thrown their way combined (9).
Kyle’s Conscience: He is a much valuable to the Patriots than he will ever be to your Fantasy squad (one
touchdown very 19 receptions for his career), but any player with a high usage rate with a hall of fame
quarterback is worth plugging into your roster as a rock solid WR2. No receiver in the league had more
yards and a higher catch percentage than Tom Brady’s security blanket. Look elsewhere if you want
upside (his 109 yard performance in the Super Bowl was just his second in his last 21 games), but the
lack of downside, especially in PPR formats, makes him a solid investment.
Rob Gronkowski
2012-2014 (16 game average): 85.3 catches – 1,215 yards - 13 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Over the last four years, there have been four individual seasons where a tight end averages
more than 2.26 yards per route run: Gronk has three of them.
2015 Projections: 86 catches – 1,188 yards – 11 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: I could tell you that he is averaging just one game over the last three seasons with
single digit PPR point totals (not including games he missed a significant amount of time with an injury)
or that he had three separate streaks of at least three consecutive weeks with a touchdown last season,
but that wouldn’t teach you anything new. Humans, forget tight ends, aren’t built like Gronk and he has
a hall of fame quarterback delivering him the ball: what more could you ask for. He’s the unquestioned
top dog at his position and I’ll listen to the argument that he is a first round pick. He’s Clayton Kershaw:
a generational talent that cannot be over drafted due to the edge he gives you over the rest of your
league at his position.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Brandon Marshall
Given his struggles last season, who would have thought that a move away from Jay Cutler would lead
to pessimism across the Fantasy community? That’s the boat Brandon Marshall finds himself, as the
newest Jet is unsure of who will be throwing him the ball in Week 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (leg) is still
recovering but is considered the favorite to win this job, something Marshall owners are rooting
desperately for.
FitzMagic was able to make Stevie Johnson a must-start Fantasy option for three consecutive years, so
laughing at the prospect of him keeping Marshall within the Top 20 at his position is unwarranted. From
2010 through 2012, Johnson totaled three consecutive seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,004 yards,
and six touchdowns (with an average season of 79-1,041-8) and was the team leader, among players
who caught at least 40 passes, in aDOT in each one of those seasons. While “Why So Serious” led the
team in aDOT, a role I expect Marshall to assume in 2015, it is worth pointing out that his average depth
of target was 10.6 yards during that stretch, a relatively low rate.
Marshall gets labeled as a deep ball oriented receiver, but that isn’t really the case. Given his 6’4” 230
pound frame, he is more than capable of making the big play although he does not rely on it. Not only
has his aDOT decreased in three straight seasons, in his three best Fantasy seasons (2009, 2012, and
2013) he ranked 33 of 36, 17 of 21, and 15 of 22 qualified receivers in terms of percentage of targets
that take place at least 20 yards down field. So while even his declining aDOT (12.7 in 2014) is
considerably higher than that of the most profitable Ryan Fitzpatrick receiver, he doesn’t rely on the
deep ball as much as you’d assume. That’s important to note because in three of his four seasons with
at least 13 games played, Fitzpatrick attempted 10.2 percent or fewer of his passes down field
(completing an average of 25.2 percent of those passes).
Yes, this combination can work. In his last four seasons without an elite running back in his backfield,
Fitzpatrick has averaged 541 pass attempts per 16 games (games in which an injury at QB occurred did
were not counted). In the three seasons in which Stevie Johnson was making his run as a strong Fantasy
asset under the toolege of Fitzpatrick, he was targeted with 26.78 percent of passes and accounted for
24.73 percent of completions while Marshall caught 60.39 percent of passes thrown his way as a
member of the Bears. If we use Johnson’s target percentage, Marshall figures to see 145 of Fitzpatrick’s
541 targets. Using Marshall’s career catch rate, that’d equate to 88 catches. Using Johnson’s percentage
of completions (given that Fitz maintains his career 60.2 completion percentage), we come to 81
catches. Since we are in the business of determining what is most likely to occur, let’s take the middle
ground and pencil in the 31-year-old Marshall for 85 grabs this season.
Johnson’s per catch production was 4.72 percent higher with the Harvard graduate throwing him the
pigskin than has been the rest of his career. If we see that level of growth for Marshall, 1,125 yards is the
projection for an 85 catch campaign. By averaging Fitzpatrick’s career touchdown rate (one every 14.24
completions) with Marshall’s career rate (one every 11.89 receptions), we are looking at seven trips to
paydirt. This is not an unreasonable projection if you consider that Marshall’s healthy (games in which
he was on the field for at least 80 percent of offensive snaps) 16 game pace last season was a very
similar Fantasy line of 83-953-12 and that was with an underachieving quarterback. Things will change if
the quarterback does, and while you might not target Marshall like you have in seasons past, avoiding
him isn’t the percentageplay.
Brandon Marshall 2015 projection: 85 catches for 1,125 yards and 7 touchdowns
Other Jet projections
Chris Ivory
SOPtistic: One year after finishing second in the league in Breakaway Percentage (percentage of yards
gained on runs of at least 15 yards) he finished second to last among qualified running backs.
Kyle’s Conscience: Marshawn Lynch. That is the only other qualified running back to rank in the Top 5 in
Elusive Rating in each of the last two seasons. Not bad company, right? Now if the Jets can just improve
the yardage blocked for and we might have something here (they were the second worst graded run
defense in 2013, but moved closer to league average last season). Bringing in Brandon Marshall to
spread opposing defenses should help, as should Ivory coming into the season as the presumed
workhorse. The ineptitude at quarterback is an obvious concern, but that will be factored into Ivory’s
price tag. Stevan Ridley was brought in this offseason, adding to the murky nature of this run game, but
potentially also making Ivory an even better value. You’re paying for last season’s production, a stat line
that resembles more of a floor than anything. If you go zero running back strategy or take risks in the
early rounds, this is an investment worth making.
Eric Decker
SOPtistic: No receiver had a higher catch percentage and more receiving yards over the final four weeks
of the season.
Kyle’s Conscience: Brandon Marshall coming to town takes the pressure off of Decker. If this was an
explosive offense, I wouldn’t downgrade Decker as a result of the Marshall addition, but considering
that the quarterback position is a bit in question, a downgrade is in order. That being said, we’ve seen
Ryan Fitzpatrick elevate the Fantasy status of receivers before, making Decker a player to keep an eye
on, and potentially extend for, if Fitz can secure the starting gig. The touchdown total probably won’t
bounce back to what it was in his days with Peyton Manning, but the yardage total should be in that
general neighborhood as a result of increased single coverage and, hopefully, a capable downfield
passer under center.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Justin Forsett
Breakout running backs are typically difficult to evaluate, as we are forced to label them as either a oneyear wonder or a budding superstar. It is even more difficult when said running back is going to turn 30
years old less than a month into the season, but there are no needs to worry … Marc Trestman is here to
save the day.
The “Quarterback Whisperer” has a track record of working magic with signal callers and his philosophy
isn’t hard to figure out: get the ball to your versatile back in space. That plays perfectly for Forsett and
should allow him to not only repeat his strong end to 2014, but build on it.
When working on this projection, you need to consider both the trajectory of Forsett along with the
statistics produced by Matt Forte in two seasons while playing in a Trestman oriented offense. After
winning the lead role in the Ravens backfield last season (Week 7), Forsett averaged 5.02 yards per carry
while playing 72 percent of snaps and recording a touch on 45.84 percent of the plays in which he was
not asked to block. Forte averaged 4.28 yards per carry while playing 90.1 percent of snaps and
recording touch on 46.47 percent of the plays in which he was not asked to block. If we average those
play percentages with the 973 plays that Forte average per season, Forsett is a statistically sound bet to
be a non-blocker for 789 plays and thus record 364 touches in 2015.
If we take the average run percentage (the percentage of touches come via rush) of Forsett last season
(84.23 percent) and Forte since 2013 (75.92 percent), that would suggest that a 291-carry and 73-catch
season is on the horizon. But wait, it’s not that simple. Forsett caught 44 passes last season, a 22.81
percent lower 16-game rate than Forte averaged before Trestman took over the offense. I’m knocking
that off of the projection to account for a skill set difference and a potential age factor, leaving us with
56 receptions.
His per-touch production needs to be weighted to favor the coaching change. For receptions and
rushing scores, that means summing Forte’s two season Trestman numbers with Forsett’s 2014
campaign and dividing by the number of catches (7.3 yards per reception and one rushing touchdown
per 34.35 carries). I’m taking a slightly different approach when it comes to yards per rush, as I’m using
Forsett’s averages from Week 7 and behind. That means averaging his 5.02 yards per carry and
averaging it with Forte’s 4.6 and 3.9 YPC over the last two seasons (4.53). Forsett has scored only one
receiving touchdown in his career, thus making a repeat of Forte’s four receiving scores unlikely. If he’s
going to catch 56 passes, the odds are good that he punches one in, but counting on much more than
that is tough to justify.
291 rushes for 1,318 yards and 8 touchdowns
Justin Forsett 2015 projection: 347 touches for 1,726 yards and 9 touchdowns
Other Raven projections
Joe Flacco
2012-2014 (16 game average): 3905 pass yds – 22.7 pass TDs – 14.7 INTs – 74.3 rush yds – 2 rush TDs
SOPtistic: Threw 32 fewer passes at least 20 yards down the field last year than in 2013 but managed 10
more touchdowns on such plays.
Kyle’s Conscience: I like Dennis Pitta as much as the next guy, but are the Ravens really counting on him
being their top target opposite Steve Smith? The next season Flacco has with an aDOT under 9.0 yards
will be his first and I’m not sure the roster around him gives him the opportunity to thrive. Retaining
Justin Forsett was a good move and they should have once again have a stable run game (they joined
the Seahawks and Cowboys as the only teams to rush for 2,000 yards on 4.5 yards per carry for 15
touchdowns), but where are the big plays going to come from? Including the playoffs, Flacco had a
completion of at least 29 yards in 16 of 18 contests last year, but with Torrey Smith out of town, those
big plays are going to be difficult to come by. There are safer options out there and if taking risks is your
thing, there are quarterbacks with higher ceilings that will bear a similar price tag.
Steve Smith Sr.
SOPtistic: Only 25 of his receptions came on the opponents half of the field in 2014.
Kyle’s Conscience: The difference between SSS and Jarvis Landry was three receptions last season. Wait,
what? If you subtract Smith’s three longest receptions, plays in which he was left uncovered for no real
reason, his 2014 standard Fantasy stat line is nearly identical to what the Dolphins rookie produced. I’m
not saying the now 36-year-old Smith got lucky, but … that’s basically what I’m saying. He showed some
signs of fatigue as the season wore on (41-675-4 in the first eight games, as compared to 38-390-2 in the
final eight), a major red flag given his age and potential for increased defensive attention now that
Torrey Smith isn’t playing opposite him. His role in an offense with a strong-armed quarterback is going
to result in occasional big weeks, but I will gladly take the “under” on every part of his 2014 stat line.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Andy Dalton
Everything about Dalton has been questioned in his four professional seasons and while I’m in the
majority in believing he is an average at best NFL quarterback, that means nothing when it comes to the
Fantasy Football world. He’s obviously not an elite option, but don’t blindly dismiss him based on public
perception.
The “Red Rifle” gets killed for focusing too much on one player and the criticism is accurate. So when
you’re looking back at Dalton’s underwhelming 2014 stat line, don’t forget that A.J. Green missed three
games and was at far less than 100 percent for a handful of others. Considering that his stud receiver
had never had injury issues prior to last season, let’s assume a strong bounce back when projecting
forward. With a healthy Green, Dalton totaled 1,028 yards and 14 touchdowns on “deep” passes last
season. As you’d expect, those numbers fell off a cliff last season (627 yards and 6 touchdowns).
Expecting a complete bounce back to the crazy numbers he produced in 2013 is not fair given the
emergence of Jeremy Hill and his effect on the volume of passes, but averaging the strong 2013 deep
ball numbers with the weak 2014 seems reasonable. That would suggest that Dalton’s yardage total
would have increased by 201 yards and his touchdown pass total by 4 scores if he had a healthy Green
for 16 games last season.
For my projection, one that I’m assuming a healthy Green for, I’m going to use that stat line (3,599 yards
and 23 touchdowns). If we average that yardage total with his 2013 mark, forecasting 3,946 passing
yards for the upcoming season is the play. That type of production is possible, but it’s a bit above his
career expectations. If we average out his pass attempts over his first three seasons and multiply it by
his career yards per attempt rate, a 3,798 yard campaign would be the call. I like the math behind both
of those projections and therefore averaged the two of them to give me my 2015 Dalton passing
yardage total: 3,872 yards.
Earlier, I mentioned, based on my deep ball calculations, Dalton would have thrown 23 touchdown
passes last season if Green was reasonably healthy. I’m averaging that total with the number he actually
did throw with a healthy Green in 2013 (33) to give me 28 touchdown tosses this season. Interceptions
have been an issue in the past and there are no signs of that changing. Even with a significant decline in
risk taking (he threw 11.2 percent of his passes 20-plus yards down field last season, down from his
previous two year average of 13.7 percent) and attempts (105 fewer than 2013), only two quarterbacks
threw more picks last season. He’s averaging one per 35.98 attempts for his career and at his projected
production: sign me up for another 17 interception campaign.
Dalton is one of those “not very mobile but runs enough to make a Fantasy impact” quarterbacks. In
fact, for a quarterback who can look a hack one week and a pro bowler the next, his rushing stats have
been remarkably consistent from season to season. He’s scored at least 30 points on the ground in three
consecutive seasons despite an ever-changing offensive philosophy, so projecting his career average on
the ground is a safe bet.
Andy Dalton 2015 projection: 3,872 pass yards, 156 rush yards, 31 total TDs, and 17 INTs
Other Bengal projections
Jeremy Hill
2014: 1,339 total yards and 9 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He had 101 more rushing yards than any other back in the NFL in the second half of last
season.
Kyle’s Conscience: He finished eighth in rushing yards despite recording only 50 carries through the first
two months of the season, an incredible level of success given that no defense was really game-planning
to stop Andy Dalton. Giovani Bernard is still going be involved, but there is no question that this offense
needs a consistent yardage grinder and Hill within question fits that role better (Bernard averaged just
3.5 yards per carry if you subtract one long run). Consider this: Hill averaged 15.2 percent more yards
per carry after his 10th rush of the game than he did on his first 10 carries. He is capable of wearing
down defenses and forcing an eighth man in the box, and even then defenses are having issues stopping
him. The presence of Bernard keeps Hill from joining the top two tiers of workhorse running backs, but
last season was no fluke for this 22-year-old.
Giovani Bernard
SOPtistic: Subtract his one home run play against the Panthers and he would have finished 36th among
running backs in yards per carry (just below Doug Martin/Branden Oliver and just ahead of Matt Asiata).
Kyle’s Conscience: I don’t want to dig the grave of this 23-year-old quite yet, but if you subtract two
electrifying runs over his last 24 games, he has managed just 1,042 rushing yards (3.58 yards per carry)
and six rushing touchdowns. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but with every Jeremy Hill rush last season,
it felt as if this youngster was getting pushed closer and closer to a Darren Sproles type of role. The carry
count figures to be greater than an exclusive pass catcher, but drafting him and counting on a repeat of
his 16.2 touches per game is simply not a wise investment.
A.J. Green
2012-2014 (16 game average): 93.9 catches - 1,357 yards – 10 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Averaged 6.5 percent more yards per route run last season than the next highest single season
mark over the last two seasons.
Kyle’s Conscience: If this was a franchise draft and I was looking to build an actual NFL team around a
receiver, Green would be a Top 5 receiver, but it’s not and as long as Andy Dalton is under center,
Green’s appeal will be held in check. That’s not to say that he’s not a WR1, but his statistical upside isn’t
what it should be. Dalton does target Green with regularity, but I’m just a writer and I know that that is
his only read. No receiver has seen more passes thrown his way result in interceptions over the last two
seasons than Green (18), a statistic the tells you just how little Dalton looks off defenders as Green is
capable of catching nearly any pass. Health caused Green’s final stat line to underwhelm, and while I
think he bounces back, I envision a similar season in the sense that his owners will experience ups and
downs that the elite receivers don’t go through.
Marvin Jones
SOPtistic: He missed all of 2014, but in 2013 only Eric Decker caught a higher percentage of deep targets
and scored more touchdowns on such receptions than Jones.
Kyle’s Conscience: An ankle injury that forced him to miss an entire season and Andy Dalton as his
quarterback are less than ideal, but we cannot dismiss his surprise 2013 campaign. Mohamed Sanu had
the opportunity to seize control of WR2 duties in Cincinnati, but by leading the league in drops, I think it
is safe to say that there is competition for playing time opposite A.J. Green. Dalton is a very limited
quarterback in terms of progressions, which limits the potential of any non-Green receiver, but Jones’ 75
percent score rate in the red zone in 2013 makes him rosterable. His asking price figures to be such that
the reward outweighs the risk, making him a nice stash option that could emerge as a Top 45 receiver
with a break or two.
Tyler Eifert
SOPtistic: Andy Dalton gets a lot of flack, and deservedly so, for his inability to lead an offense, but
Jermaine Gresham managed to finished second among all tight ends (minimum 30 receptions) in catch
percentage. Oo yea, Eifert is the exact same build as Julius Thomas … so that doesn’t hurt either.
Kyle’s Conscience: Mohamed Sanu is far from consistent (he had a five game stretch last season where
he totaled 464 yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 catches and finished the season on a five game stretch in
which he managed just 71 yards and 0 touchdowns on 7 receptions), giving Eifert every opportunity to
be the second option in this pass game behind A.J. Green. We saw glimpses of consistency in his rookie
season (at least three catches in 69.2 percent of his games) and I’m expecting more of the same as his
role begins to increase. If you’re waiting on tight end, this is a player with a ceiling worth taking.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Isaiah Crowell
Crowell is the best back in Cleveland and I’m not sure it’s debatable. Given that he saw extended work
as last season wound down, I’m expecting him to assume the lead role out of camp and not give it back.
If that is the case, what type of season can this 22-year-old have?
Built like Alfred Morris, Crowell has the body to wear down defenses. Last season he averaged 3.63
yards per carry and 13 carries in games that he was on the field for at least 40 percent of the Browns
offensive snaps. If you subtract the game in which the Browns made a quarterback change and thus
allowed the Bills already strong run defense to play with reckless abandon, Crowell’s production per
carry rose to 4.46 yards. I’m not suggesting that whoever starts under center for Cleveland this season is
going to prevent opponents from being aggressive, but it won’t be as drastic as changing during a game,
as you are essentially admitting to the defense that a limited playbook is now in play. I’m taking the
middle of those two rates (4.05 yards per carry), as he is better than the 17-carry 29-yard performance
in Buffalo but, due to the small sample size, simply deleting that performance over-estimates what we
saw in 2014.
With Terrance West still on the roster and a mobile quarterback more than likely starting at
quarterback, projecting a major rise in usage is unwise. I expect him to surpass the 40 percent snap
count in every healthy game next season, meaning 13 carries per game is a very obtainable total. He
doesn’t profile as a great pass catcher and I’ll simply extend his touch percentage (5.73 percent came via
reception last) from 2014 to the increased workload in 2015.
Last but not least is the touchdown total. West and Crowell combined to score on 26.8 percent of their
red zone touches while 9.6 percent of Crowell’s touches came inside the 20. If we assume similar rates
in 2015, Crowell would 22 red zone opportunities and cash in on just under six of them (I’m rounding up
to six to account for the potential of a score that takes place beyond 20 yards).
Isaiah Crowell 2015 projection: 221 touches for 973 yards and 6 touchdowns
Other Brown projections
Andrew Hawkins
SOPtistic: In his last two healthy seasons, he has finished with a bottom 15 wide receiver aDOT.
Kyle’s Conscience: Do you really want to tempt fate and get any part of the Browns passing attack? In
addition to having exactly no confidence in their quarterback situation, Hawkins slid down the depth
chart this offseason with the additions of Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline. Hawkins was producing
reasonable numbers when Cleveland was overachieving, but as their results began to match their talent
level, Hawkins faded into the Fantasy abyss (13 catches for 130 yards over the final five weeks). He was
a hot commodity in the first half of last season and may still have a name that owners in your league
recognize: let them have him, the ceiling isn’t high enough to chase and the floor is that of an empty
roster spot.
Dwayne Bowe
SOPtistic: He’s still only 30 years old, but he has missed at least one game in three consecutive seasons
after playing all 16 games in four of his first five seasons and has scored just 13 times in the four seasons
following his 15 touchdown explosion in 2010.
Kyle’s Conscience: Yay, he got out of Kansas City! Well, yea, he did, but he didn’t exactly land in a much
better situation in Cleveland. In fact, you could argue that he moved to a less opportunistic spot, as the
Browns completed 46 fewer passes than the Chiefs despite attempting 9 more passes. Take it one step
further: the Chiefs were the butt of every joke for having 0 receiver touchdowns … and yet they scored
50 percent more times through the air than the Browns. You don’t know what you have until it’s gone,
and I expect that to be the story of Bowe’s season regarding Alex Smith after he spends a season in
Cleveland.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Ben Roethlisberger
Maybe it’s his grit or maybe it was beginning his career as a “game-manager”, but the Fantasy
community continues to lack respect for Roethlisberger and based on early ranks, that doesn’t appear
ready to change this season. For the fourth consecutive season, Big Ben’s per game attempt count rose
along with his completion percentage, a steady rate of growth that will get you worshipped if it comes at
a young age but one that apparently doesn’t matter for a 33-year-old in the eyes of most. Not only are
the attempts on the rise, his yardage total and touchdown-to-interception rate were the best of his
career in 2014. In fact, he threw for 14.4 percent more yards than his previous best while he tossed 78
percent more scores per pick in 2014 than in 2013. The key behind his success are two of the most
consistent skill position players in all of football in Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and considering that
their combined age is still under 50, this Steelers offense is in safe hands.
In his second season with both Bell and Brown by his side, not only did Roethlisberger’s efficiency
increase, his risk taking did too. His aDOT jumped nearly six percent while his completion percentage on
deep passes rose from 35.5 percent to 41.8 percent as he ranked second in the league in number of
deep completions. The willingness to challenge defenses down the field was as much a result to the
gained respect of his two elite playmakers as the emergence of Martavius Bryant and the growth of
Markus Wheaton. That duo averaged 15.1 yards per catch and scored on 16.5 percent of their
receptions, very encouraging signs as they are still on the upswings of their careers and will rarely see
safety help over the top thanks to Brown. It’s time to stop stereotyping the Steelers when it comes to
their offense and start stacking their weapons.
Critics will point to his historic two game tear last season as a stat inflator, and while I won’t dispute
that, it doesn’t mean he didn’t have an impressive season. If you subtract those two games along with
his two worst games (assuming that what they say is true: “you’re never as good as your best or as bad
as your worst”), Big Ben’s pace would have landed him as the sixth most valuable quarterback in Fantasy
Football … the exact spot he finished.
I’d love to forecast Roethlisberger’s growth in pass attempts to continue, but with the three game
suspension to Bell (he’s thrown 2.5 fewer passes per game without Bell over the last two seasons than
with him), the better projection is to assume that his marginal annual uptick is offset, giving us a repeat
of the 608 passes he fired last season. If we assume the average completion percentage over the last
two seasons (75 percent of aimed passes and 65.65 percent of all passes), we are looking at 399
completions. His yards per attempt should remain stable but I do expect his yards per completion to
benefit from the increased involvement of Bryant and Wheaton. His per completion gain jumped by 2.9
percent in 2014 from his rate over the previous three seasons, a rate that if sustained would result in
4,984 passing yards in 2015.
As far as touchdowns are concerned, his career rate would suggest that 31 scores are likely given 608
pass attempts. That said, before Bell made his debut in 2013, Roethlisberger’s touchdown rate suffered,
as he managed just two scores on his 70 attempts. This is obviously a very small sample size, but with
two defenses that finished as Top 10 units in terms of passer rating against and a third that gave up the
third fewest passing touchdowns in 2014, it is reasonable to project one fewer score courtesy of
Roethlisberger as a result. He has averaged 11 interceptions over the last three years, a rate that we
have no reason to think changes. Once viewed as a dual threat, there is no reason to assume he
provides much Fantasy glory on the ground, especially as his efficiency improves as a passer and the
Steelers fate is in his hands.
Ben Roethlisberger 2015 projection: 4,984 pass yards, 63 rush yards, 29 TDs, and 11 INTs
Other Steeler projections
Le’Veon Bell
SOPtistic: The counting statistics are outstanding and the fact that he ranked as the most efficient passblocking running back among those who finished in the Top 20 in rushing yards only solidifies his role on
this Steelers offense.
Kyle’s Conscience: Over his last 19 games, he has more games with 200 total yards and a touchdown
than he does games with fewer than 100 total yards and no touchdowns. Think about that for a minute.
That means his downside is in the neighborhood of 15 Standard Fantasy points: that’s the type of
consistency it takes to be considered for the top spot in my ranks. Much like teammate Antonio Brown,
you know exactly what to expect on a weekly basis and have room for game-breaking upside. He is
averaging nearly 23 touches per game over his career, potentially a red flag down the road, but ride this
23-year-old as long as you can. His ranking has dipped a bit as the result of the three game suspension,
but neither that nor the addition of DeAngelo Williams is going to stop my per game love for Bell. It is no
coincidence that the Steelers found tremendous success when their lead back was dominating (10 of his
11 scores came in victories), a trend that should continue. He’s been the best per game back the minute
he entered the NFL and he should be drafted as such.
Antonio Brown
SOPtistic: Pick any streak you want when it comes to the most consistent WR in the game today: how
about his active run of 27 games (playoffs included) with a reception of at least 15 yards.
Kyle’s Conscience: I get that he’s not your prototypical 6’4” physical specimen that makes defenders
look like third graders, but we here in the Fantasy business pay for production and no one gives you
more of that than AB (can he get a reasonable nickname?). He caught 16.2 percent more passes than
any other player in the NFL last season and is 17.7 percent ahead of any other pass catcher over the last
two seasons, statistics that have been accumulated at the highest level of consistency. The scary part is
that this Steelers offense is only going to get better as the young talent matures and that Brown may
have yet to peak. I’m not saying he is Jerry Rice or Calvin Johnson, they are simply different receivers,
but both of those elite pass catchers had all-time seasons at the age of 27 (1,483 yards/17 touchdowns
and 122 catches/1,964 yards respectively). Brown is 27 and, much like those two greats, is learning how
to repeatedly beat defenses faster than defenses are learning to contain him.
Martavis Bryant
2014 (16 game average): 41.6 catches – 878 yards – 8 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He averaged 38.5 percent more Standard Fantasy points per snap than any other qualified
receiver.
Kyle’s Conscience: Nearly 31 percent of his receptions resulted in touchdowns last season, and while
that percentage is a near lock to regress, his involvement stands to increase due to the lack of a proven
receiver to play opposite of Antonio Brown. This Steelers offense is going to go as far as LeVeon Bell and
Brown can take it, but the need for a WR2 to take some of the pressure off is real and Bryant seems to
have the inside track over Markus Wheaton. There is obvious risk involved in selecting a player without
a well defined role, but Bryant topped all receivers with at least 40 targets in percentage of looks that
took place at least 20 yards down the field and his 6’4” frame makes him a lottery ticket worth
purchasing.
Markus Wheaton
SOPtistic: Let’s not dig this grave quite yet. After hardly being used in his rookie year, Wheaton averaged
1.49 PPR points per target in his second season. Teammate Antonio Brown wasn’t much involved in his
first season and followed that up with a 1.56 PPR point per target campaign.
2015 Projection: 58 catches - 737 yards – 3 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: He came into 2014 with a chance to lock up the WR2 spot on the Steelers roster, a
valuable title to hold given the attention that Antonio Brown holds on the opposite side. He didn’t do it.
His first game of the season was his only one with more than 66 receiving yards and he had more games
with fewer than three receptions than games with more than four. Martavis Bryant emerged as a
scoring threat and is, at the minimum, competing for that WR2 role now. Keep an eye on the depth
chart, as I like the Steelers second receiver as a nice Fantasy value, I just think Bryant is the betting
favorite at this point.
Heath Miller
SOPtistic: Miller caught eight touchdown passes on 71 receptions in 2012. In the two seasons on either
side of that, he has totaled eight touchdowns on 217 catches.
Kyle’s Conscience: Can you name all the offenses that averaged more yards and points than the Steelers
last season? Exactly. Zip,nadda, none. So Miller should have nice upside, or at least a raised floor, right?
Wrong. This offense is paced by two of the most consistent options in the game (Le’Veon Bell and
Antonio Brown) and has a pair of play-making receivers that supply upside. Miller doesn’t possess the
athleticism to flourish down the field, giving him no real upside in this offense. If you want to wait on TE
and pair him with a high-upside option (Jared Cook, Zach Ertz, or Tyler Eifert for example), fine by me.
But planning to start Miller on a weekly basis from the get-go is a mistake.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting DeAndre Hopkins
Gunslinger Brian Hoyer? Not exactly, but over the last three seasons, he is averaging 495 pass attempts
per 16 games, a figure that would have ranked him 15th among quarterbacks last season. Why do I
mention that? As a second year receiver, Hopkins totaled 76 catches for 1,210 yards and 6 touchdowns
despite having a volume based veteran (Andre Johnson) on the other side and playing in an offense that
saw no team attempt fewer passes while throwing more interceptions. He now moves into the lead role
while maintaining a volume based receiver as his sidekick (Cecil Shorts III). In other words, don’t assume
that the stigma that comes with Hoyer leads to a disappointing season from Hopkins. But wait, there’s
more.
Could the combination of losing Johnson and gaining Hoyer actually result in Fantasy gold? Before things
went sour in Cleveland last season, Hoyer was consistently getting one receiver involved per game. For
the Browns, that was rarely the same player, as no pass catcher in their offense stepped into the lead
role, but that isn’t the case in Houston. If you sum the total stats accumulated by the most productive
pass catcher in each of the Browns first eight games, you get a total of 44 catches for 619 yards and 7
touchdowns. For those not mathematically inclined, that’s an 88-catch 1,238-yard, and 14-touchdown
pace. I’m not suggesting he produces that stat line, but it is worth noting that Hoyer isn’t to be treated
as toxic waste if he can develop a strong connection with his new WR1. In addition to the ability to
support one receiver weekly, Hoyer’s skill set would seem to match up nicely with that of Hopkins. Only
Jeremy Maclin and T.Y. Hilton totaled more receiving yards with a greater aDOT than Hopkins last
season whileHoyer’s10.8 aDOT topped all qualified quarterbacks and was 23.4 percent higher than
Houston’s trio of signal callers produced last season.
But enough about what has happened in the past. Hopkins saw a 31.9 percent spike in targets from
2013 to 2014 despite a change under center, thanks to the Texans obvious intent to get him involved (he
was targeted on20.9 percent of his routes run last season, up from 13.9 percent in his rookie season).
Asking him to continue that rate of improvement is unreasonable, but forecasting him to be targeted on
the same percentage of routes as he was in 2014 with a route count closer to that of 2013 is within
reach. That would mean 137 targets and, based on his 60.7 career catch percentage, 83 receptions.
As for the touchdown rate, one would assume that it remains relatively stable. The best non-Hopkins
receiver plus Arian Foster plus J.J. Watt is a good bet to approach the 11 touchdown receptions that
they did last season, putting Hopkins in a good spot to at least repeat his six scores from a season ago.
But if you dig a bit deeper, you’ll notice that 12 of Johnson’s 85 catches last season came inside the red
zone. That may not seem like a high rate, but when you consider that Shorts has only caught 11 red zone
passes in the last three seasons combined (174 total catches), it is possible that DHop sees a sizeable
spike in looks inside the 20 yard line. In his young career, Hopkins has scored on one-third of his red
zone receptions, so if he absorbs half of Johnson’s vacated red zone grabs, he figures to add two
touchdowns to his 2014 total.
DeAndre Hopkins 2015 projection: 83 catches for 1,305 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other Texan projections
Arian Foster
SOPtistic: He didn’t have a single game in 2014 in which he didn’t touch the ball at least 23 times or
record at least seven standard Fantasy points as a receiver.
Kyle’s Conscience: The talent is undeniable (5.2 yards per touch for his career), but he will celebrate his
29th birthday this summer and has missed at least three games in four of his six seasons. In the four
seasons he missed three or fewer games, he has scored 60 times in 58 games, a rate that is nothing
short of special. Scoring isn’t all he does, however, as he has totaled at least 100 yards in each of his last
14 games with more than 15 touches. The Texans pass game has somehow gotten less explosive this
offseason, further solidifying Foster’s heavy involvement, a usage rate that can’t help but be viewed as a
threat to his health. His talent is on par with that of the top tier running backs, but because you have to
pencil in physical limitations, he’s a low-end RB1. That said, he is worth first round consideration in this
era of committees and carry counts. For better or for worse, I’d look for Houston to ride him until the
wheels fall off, giving him a 2014 DeMarco Murray ceiling. Are you feeling lucky?
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson has been one of the most reliable Fantasy options for the better part of a decade, but
Father Time is beginning to make his presence known. From 2012 to 2013, Johnson’s catch total
dropped by 2.7 percent and his yardage 12 percent. The following season, the decline was even more
magnified as stat line suffered a 14.7 percent drop in receptions and 25.3 percent in yards (on a healthy
per game basis).
Obviously there are confounding variables, like awful quarterback play, injuries to Arian Foster, and the
emergence of DeAndre Hopkins, but there is no denying that this is no longer the weapon that had 16
percent more receiving yards than any other receiver from 2008 through the 2009 season. I don’t think
I’m breaking news here, but it needs to be accounted for when projecting for 2015, even with him
moving to a much more Fantasy friendly environment. If you average out that decline, as last season
was probably a bit dramatic, you’re looking at a 7.7 percent decline in receptions and an 18.7 percent
decline in yardage from his 2014 as numbers as a starting point: 86 catches for 854 yards.
But that projection would be more appropriate if he was returning to Houston. In Indianapolis, he is
playing with the best quarterback of his long career and more than likely the best version of Andrew
Luck that we’ve seen. During his three seasons in the NFL, Luck’s second and third ranked pass catchers
(in terms of yardage and with tight ends included) have averaged 105 catches for 1,436 yards and 9
touchdowns: the question isn’t if there will be statistics manufactured outside of T.Y. Hilton in this pass
game, but rather the percentage of Johnson will absorb.
Gone from the equation are a veteran possession receiver in Reggie Wayne, a big target in Hakeem
Nicks, and a sneaky backfield option in Ahmad Bradshaw that matched Julio Jones and A.J. Green in
receiving touchdowns last season. Donte Moncrief looked good at points last season, but can we agree
that the most likely event (and, at the end of the day, that’s what projections are used to assess) is that
Johnson and one of the two talented tight ends are Luck’s second and third most productive pass
catchers in 2015?
I’m not asking you to identify which tight end will lead the way, but over the last three seasons we’ve
seen either Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener put up strong numbers. When both are healthy, they limit the
upside of one another, but as a result of missed time, one has managed to establish himself as the
superior Fantasy option during Luck’s three seasons under center. If you average out the production of
the top tight end over those years, we can pencil in a tight end totaling 49 catches for 634 yards and 5
touchdowns.
That gives us two set of projections for Johnson. His 86-catch 854-yard regression based stat line from
his Houston days and the 56-catch 802-yard version that we just calculated for the second best receiver
in Indianapolis this season. T.Y. Hilton averages 74 catches per 16 games for his career, so when
attempting to forecast the number of his touches that Johnson takes from, how does giving him the
eight catches that Hilton overachieved by last season sound? The impact could be greater, but I expect
these two to complement each other more so than limit one another. If we add those eight grabs to the
average numbers of the aforementioned pair of projections, we are left with a stat line that reads: 79
catches for 922 yards.
The inability to produce a double digit touchdown season is a common narrative when assessing the
career of Johnson and there certainly is something to be said for a consistent lack of scores. That said,
over the last three seasons, he has accounted for a shade over 19 percent of all touchdown receptions
in Houston, a rate that if maintained, would net him 7-8 scores in this high powered attack. By
subtracting eight catches from Hilton, a touchdown is statistically likely to be included, so let’s give
Johnson the benefit of the doubt.
Andre Johnson 2015 projection: 79 catches for 922 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other Colt projections
Andrew Luck
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,319 pass yds – 28.7 pass TDs – 14.3 INTs – 301.7 rush yds – 4 rush TDs
SOPtistic: A great season could have been even better had his Colt teammates not dropped a league
high 38 passes.
2015 Projection: 4,880 yards – 37 touchdowns – 12 interceptions – 269 rush yds – 3 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: Frank Gore should provide more stability to the run game than Trent Richardson
could, a good thing for the Colts but not ideal of Luck’s Fantasy owners. That said, the minor down-tick
in volume should be offset by increased efficiency. Pay for a safe bet to finish among the elite, knowing
that he could well finish as the top overall player in 2015.
Frank Gore
SOPtistic: His touchdown scoring rate was the lowest of his career and now he plays for a team that has
dropped back to pass 22.6 percent more often than San Francisco.
Kyle’s Conscience: He turned 32 years old this offseason but is coming off of his best season in terms of
yards per carry since 2009 and looked fresh as the season wore on (he averaged 5.3 yards per carry and
scored half of his rushing touchdowns in December). His new home in Indianapolis is a perfect fit, as the
pass first offensive philosophy should limit the number of hits taken but there also is not a direct threat
to his role as the lead back. Of course, volume of attempts is a major concern here. Even in a run heavy
49er offense, Gore averaged his fewest carries per game (15.9) since his rookie year, a rate that figures
to decline even further given the fact that the Colts have averaged 27.2 percent more quarterback drop
backs over the last three seasons than the Niners. Gore hasn’t been a reliable receiver out of the
backfield for four seasons now, making a career-low touch rate very possible, if not likely. I think he can
produce in spurts, but at the end of the day, I think he holds more value to his NFL team than to your
Fantasy squad.
T.Y. Hilton
SOPtistic: He averaged 3.07 Standard Fantasy points per catch in three monster games, a number that
fell to 1.75 in his other 12 contests.
Kyle’s Conscience: Andrew Luck took a cautious approach in his second NFL season in an effort to
become more efficient, but he ramped up the risk in a very successful 2014. In his rookie season, Luck
threw 16.1 percent of his passes at least 20 yards down the field (the third highest rate in the NFL that
season) and averaged just 1.5 touchdowns per interception. He made a conscious effort to take better
care of the ball in 2013, dropping his percentage of deep passes to 10.5 percent and improving the
touchdown-to-interception rate to 2.5. In 2015, we saw the best of both worlds with 14.3 percent of his
attempts being of the deep variety and an impressive 4.0 touchdown-to-interception ratio that included
the second most deep scores in all of football. What does all of that mean? It means that 24-year-old
speedster is ready to build on a strong 2014 season that saw him catch the same number of passes on
fewer targets in fewer games for 262 more yards than the year previous. Andre Johnson will demand
respect from opposing defenses and Hilton’s improved ability to move the chains (75.6 percent of his
receptions resulted in a first down last season, up from 56.1 percent in 2013) as well as threaten them
down field makes him a near impossible one-man cover. He isn’t the type of number one receiver that
you can pencil in for high level consistency, but when all is said and done, those who invested in Hilton
are likely to be smiling.
Coby Fleener
SOPtistic: He scored eight touchdowns despite having the lowest catch percentage of any tight end that
reached pay dirt at least four times.
Kyle’s Conscience: Fleener enjoyed a strong season that saw him finish as the seventh best Standard
Fantasy tight end, and while the skill set is there, the opportunity is unlikely to be. He capitalized on
Dwayne Allen’s injuries to play 68.6 percent of snaps, a number I will gladly take the “under” on for the
upcoming season. I’ll also go “under” on his yard per catch average that rivaled that of Julio Jones, Calvin
Johnson, and Dez Bryant. I love this offense and expect plenty of passing, but the price tag on Fleener
will likely represent optimism in a repeat performance: that’s simply not a wise statistical bet.
Dwayne Allen
SOPtistic: Combined with Coby Fleener to catch 33 percent more touchdowns than Rob Gronkowski
despite totaling one fewer reception.
Kyle’s Conscience: If there was only one tight end in Indianapolis, that player would be an unquestioned
Top 5 option and maybe the third best at the position. Allen is the more reliable red zone option which
makes him the more attractive Fantasy option, but because his constantly low catch total, the low
weekly floor is enough to prevent me from overextending for the touchdown machine. Pay for what
we’ve seen and hope for more, as opposed to targeting tremendous upside and overspending.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Julius Thomas
Thomas has scored the same number of touchdowns over the last two seasons (24) as the primary
quarterback has thrown for in Jacksonville over the last two seasons. Total. Not just to tight ends, or top
targets. Total. Needless to say, JT is likely to gain a whole new appreciation for the magic that is Peyton
Manning, but how should Fantasy owners react? Was Thomas simply a product of Manning’s excellence
or was Manning just exploiting a walking mismatch that is uncoverable?
As always, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Don’t forget that we are in a passing golden age,
and while that typically leads to acknowledgement of the great quarterbacks putting up transcendent
numbers, it also allows for the bottom feeders to offer more Fantasy upside than in years past. Cecil
Shorts has seen at least 106 targets in three consecutive seasons as the primary focus of this
questionable passing attack and the target leader has averaged 123 looks per season over that stretch.
Thomas isn’t going to absorb all of those looks (that’s ten more targets than Rob Gronkowski averages
per 16 games for his career … and he plays with a slightly better quarterback), but with Shorts now in
Houston, targets should not be an issue. It should also be noted that 10 of Marcedes Lewis’, a similarly
built tight end, 95 catches from the fearsome duo of Chad Henne and Blake Bortles resulted in
touchdowns over that span. There might be hope yet.
Jedd Fisch has been in charge of this offense for two seasons, so let’s use that as a guide. Lewis owns a
66-target 16-game pace while the top receiver has seen an average of 118 passes. Thomas figures to fill
both of those roles in 2015, leading me to believe that the average of those two rates is a reasonable
target projection. That would mean 92 passes thrown in Thomas’ direction, a rate that is nearly identical
to his 16-game pace over the last two seasons (88.3 targets). In those two seasons, Peyton Manning’s
completion percentage was 8.9 percent higher to Thomas than to all other pass-catchers. We obviously
cannot project Bortles to complete the same percentage of passes as Manning, but saying that Thomas
could impact his completion percentage isn’t out of the question. If we pencil Bortles in for the same
completion percentage, likely his floor, and the same improvement when targeting Thomas that
Manning displayed, the newest Jaguar is set to catch 59 passes in 2015.
How productive can he be with those receptions is the big question. Thomas’ aDOT with Manning was
nearly identical to that of Bortles in his rookie campaign, so, in theory, the skill sets match up nicely.
That is a nice sign, but the quality of target takes a hit with the change under center, something that is
evident by Manning averaging 14 percent more yards per completion over the last two seasons than
Bortles did in 2014. To determine per catch production, I’m taking that 14 percent and subtracting it
from Thomas’ average since 2013: 602 yards.
The touchdown count is where the greatest dip in production figures to take place. Over the last three
seasons, the injury plagued Lewis has averaged one score every 9.5 receptions and the Jags top scoring
receiver last season scored once every 8.5 grabs. That averages out to one score every nine catches, a
rate that would equate to seven scores for Thomas in 2015. I’m giving him a one score bump for his
proven ability to succeed in the red zone (17 touchdowns over the last two seasons), an area that
Bortles struggled (34.2 completion percentage), and the growth that should come from his quarterback
after taking his lumps last season.
Julius Thomas 2015 projection: 59 catches for 602 yards and 8 touchdowns
Other Jaguar projections
T.J. Yeldon
College Resume: Just another physically imposing Alabama running back that looks the part of a Fantasy
asset. He averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry and scored double digit touchdowns in each of his three
collegiate seasons. He has been criticized for his lack of high end speed, unwillingness to pass block, and
careless ball-handling, traits that make a rookie of the year season unlikely if they continue.
Kyle’s Conscience: The Jaguars backfield counted on a converted quarterback to handle the majority of
snaps, so there is every opportunity for Yeldon to start from Day 1. That said, Jacksonville hasn’t had an
above average run blocking offensive line since 2011, making this rookie more of a volume Fantasy asset
than one who is going to shock people with per carry production. If you’re going with the zero running
back strategy, this could be the cheapest source of 200 carries in your draft, making him an interesting
player had the right price.
Allen Robinson
2014 (16 game average): 76.8 catches – 877 yards – 3.2 touchdowns
SOPtistic: He was the 14th most targeted receiver through the first 10 weeks last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: Prior to a stress fracture in his foot that cut his rookie season short, only 14 receiers
had been targeted with more passes than the former Nittany Lion. Robinson is a physical specimen that
is built to succeed at this level, but his upside was limited last season as no quarterback attempted
fewer deep passes and was less accurate than Blake Bortles. Both of these young guns are going to get
better and get better fast, making this the year that Robinson is among the best values in your draft. Is
there any reason that Robinson can’t get 80 yards a week and score every other game? That’s all it
would take to match Alshon Jeffery’s Fantasy impact last year … why not? Are you worried about the
Jags plethora of weapons? Me neither. He isn’t expected to miss any time as he recovers, and as long as
that remains the case as you draft approaches, “Allen Robinson” is a name to circle/highlight/star on
your cheat sheet.
Allen Hurns
SOPtistic: Recorded 46.2 Standard Fantasy Points in his two big games while totaling 43.9 points after
Week 3 (not including the big game that was factored into the first figure).
Kyle’s Conscience: I feel obligated to touch on him due to his impressive from a distance 51-677-6 stat
line that resulted in more Fantasy points than other receivers already covered (Larry Fitzgerald, Terrance
Williams, and Martavis Bryant to name a few). I’m not interested in rolling the dice on a receiver that
caught only 56 percent of passes thrown his way (seven dropped passes) and relied on two massive
games to inflate his annual point total. The Jags passing offense should only continue to improve, the
positive result from throwing Blake Bortles to the wolves in his rookie year, but with more invested in
Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, Hurns’ role is minimal at best. Add in the addition of Julius Thomas and
any contribution received from Justin Blackmon or Ace Sanders and the big game upside simply doesn’t
outweigh the 0-point floor. You can do better, even if you’re just looking to fill out your roster with
lottery tickets.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Delanie Walker
Walker has seen his career take off since joining Tennessee in 2013, catching the exact same number of
passes with the Titans as he did in seven seasons with the 49ers (123). It could be something in the
water, but I’ll take my chances on there being a numerical explanation for the spike in production in the
second half of his career.
Tennessee hasn’t had good, or even average, play at the quarterback position, but they have been
willing to take chances down field. In 2013, Jake Locker ranked fifth among qualified quarterbacks with a
9.9 aDOT. In 2014, the Titans had a trio of quarterbacks essentially split the snaps and they all ranked in
the Top 16 in aDOT, with Charlie Whitehurst and Locker finishing the season as two of the seven signal
callers with a double digit aDOT. The play under center was obviously poor, but the willingness to
constantly challenge defenses downfield allowed Walker to finish as a fringe Top 5 tight end on a per
game basis last season.
The question becomes one of the style and what this Titans offense will look like with Marcus Mariota
presumably stepping in as the Week 1 starter. The concern is obvious, as Mariota wasn’t asked to take
chances down field in a quick striking attack at Oregon. That’s not to say that he can’t do it, but we also
have no tangible proof that he can and that’s a worry. If only we had a college quarterback who put up
gaudy numbers in school that was drafted in the first round and was counted on heavily in his rookie
campaign due to a lack of a supporting cast.
O wait, Derek Carr was in a similar spot last season. There was less fanfare, but his skill set entering the
professional ranks was similar and his college numbers at Frenso ( 9,304 total yards and 89 touchdowns
over his final two college seasons compared to Mariota’s 9,604 yards and 97 touchdowns) demanded
the attention of Fantasy owners. In his rookie campaign, Carr was count on heavily, but the Raiders
didn’t ask him to make a ton of plays down the field (his 8.9 aDOT was about league average) and I think
we could see a similar usage pattern from the Titans this season. Let’s use that aDOT as a reference
point, one that would indicate an 11 percent drop off from Titan quarterbacks in 2014. If we transfer
that directly to Walker’s yards per catch, we are talking about a still very strong 12.57 yards per catch.
It’s difficult to pencil in the same volume of attempts for Mariota as Carr had in his rookie season, as
Oakland clearly was willing to waste a season in an effort to expedite the growth process. If we combine
Carr’s averages with those of the three other highly involved rookie signal callers from last season
(Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Zach Mettenberger), we are projecting Mariota to attempt 32.8
passes per game and to complete 60.4 of those attempts. That leaves us with a 316 completion season,
and considering that Walker has accounted for 19.44 percent of completions when he is active, that
would suggest that a 62 catch 2015 is a solid starting point. That exact total is reflected when you
project forward his catch percentage over the last two seasons and it’s difference compared to the
overall Titan quarterback accuracy.
One would think that Walker’s touchdown rate may dip a bit with a rookie throwing him the rock, but
with Shonn Greene out of town and no other reasonable red zone target, I’m not projecting regression.
He has scored 10 touchdowns in two seasons and six of them have come inside the 10 yard line, a role I
look for him to continue to fill in 2015.
Delanie Walker 2015 projection: 62 catches for 779 yards and 5 touchdowns
Other Titan projections
Marcus Mariota
College Resume: The man had more rushing touchdowns in his final season than interceptions over his
entire career. Words cannot properly describe the statistics he complied in three seasons at Oregon, but
will his unique skill set translate immediately to the NFL? His size and athleticism are enticing and his
calm demeanor is a trait I love, but I have my concerns about the support from teammates when it
comes to making 2015 a strong Fantasy campaign from Mariota.
2015 Projection: 3,408 passing yds – 19 pass TDs – 13 INTs – 368 rush yds – 2 rush TDs
Kyle’s Conscience: The Titans helped improve a passing game that was nothing short of pathetic last
season (no team completed fewer passes and threw more interceptions) by adding Harry Douglas and
Hakeem Nicks, but the lack of a true number one option is why I have him slightly behind Winston. That
said, Mariota has shown consistency through the air (66.8 career completion percentage) to go along
with his raw ability on the ground (double digit rushing attempts in four of his final six games), a rare
combination and one worth taking in the later rounds.
Bishop Sankey
SOPtistic: The next game in which Sankey records more than 10 carries and averages more than 3.5
yards per carry will be his first.
2015 Projection: 818 yards and 5 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: Am I missing something here or is there absolutely no reason to think Sankey takes a
step forward? His snap count was essentially identical in the first half and the second half, indicating
that the Titans saw no reason to make him more involved, a train of thought supported by the David
Cobb selection in the fifth round (the 12th running back taken). Cobb is an interesting prospect who may
have a lower ceiling than the much more explosive Sankey, but he also comes with a physical approach
that could translate to a role in his rookie season. Shonn Greene isn’t a stand out talent either, but a
rookie quarterback needs a running game he can rely on to punish defenses, and if that is the goal
Sankey is the third option on this depth chart. He’s worth a flier late, simply because he is still the
betting favorite to lead this backfield in touches, but another BS Fantasy season from BS is likely.
David Cobb
College Resume: Cobb didn’t see the field much until his junior year at Minnesota, but he made the
most of his two seasons as “the man” in Gopher country (2,828 rushing yards and 20 scores). His
propensity to explode for the massive performance (four games with at least 180 rushing yards) has got
Fantasy owners drooling as he enters an offense that lacks explosive play-makers.
2015 Projection: 656 yards total yards and 4 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: With Shonn Greene being released, the door is wide open for Cobb to step into an
immediate role. He holds the size advantage, and given Sankey’s inability to sustain productivity with a
heavy workload, that immediately raises his floor. The Titans aren’t going to give up on Sankey (he will
open the season at 22 years of age) and he is still atop their depth chart, but Cobb offers strong
potential. His ceiling may not be that of the rookie backs taken ahead of him, but given his immediate
role and the lack of clarity in front of him, I’ve got Cobb as my most valuable first year RB.
Kendall Wright
2012-2014 (16 game average): 76.4 catches – 860.4 yards – 4.3 touchdowns
SOPtistic: His role is safe when you consider his aDOT was 25.6 percent lower than any other Titan
receiver last season.
Kyle’s Conscience: The upside isn’t all that high, but with an elevated floor and improved quarterback
play, Wright makes for a nice stabilizing receiver if you rolled the dice early. He’s still just 25 years of age
and was able to produce at least 50 yards in six of his last eight games in 2014, production that should at
least be sustained with Marcus Mariota likely to start.
Harry Douglas
SOPtistic: He has been targeted 322 more times than Jordan Matthews for his career, yet the two have
the exact same number of career touchdowns.
Kyle’s Conscience: It would be easy to view this move as a Fantasy killer, as the 30-year-old leaves a
volume pass attack for a team that would not lose one bit of sleep if the NFL decided to outlaw the
forward pass … and just because it’s “easy” doesn’t make it wrong. That said, I expect a reasonable
yardage total this season (don’t forget, the Buccaneers had a bottom third pass offense and finished
with two receivers among the Top 21 in yardage), Douglas’ one touchdown per 32.3 catches rate for his
career is a red flag if you’re targeting Fantasy upside. Yes, he will be more involved than he ever was in
Atlanta, but would you rather limited involvement in an effective offense or a high snap count on an
incompetent aerial attack (and I use the word “attack” loosely)? I’m essentially extending his 2014
numbers over a 16 game season and calling that his 2015 expectation.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Demaryius Thomas
Consistency pays the Fantasy bills and that is exactly what you are getting when you invest in Demaryius
Thomas as your number one receiver. Since Peyton Manning brought his talents to Denver in 2012,
Thomas has yet to go a season without seven games where he produced a stat line of at least 5 catches
for 60 yards and a touchdown. Over that stretch, the 27-year-old has essentially produced the same
season three times in a row and is the only receiver to rank among in the Top 6 at his position in PPR
leagues in each one of those seasons.
The argument against DT is not so much against him as it is the decline expected from his now 39-yearold signal caller. Manning threw nine touchdowns on deep passes last season, his fewest in five years.
His deep ball accuracy has declined in back-to-back seasons since joining the Broncos while his
percentage of deep passes has been trending downward (was at 13.5 percent prior to 2011 neck surgery
and was 11.7 percent last year). Not great news for Manning owners and it is more than likely his best
days are behind him, but when you consider that no receiver in football has more Fantasy points and a
lower aDOT than DT since 2012, those seemingly negative trends could actually help Thomas sustain, or
potentially build on, the success he has experienced over the last three seasons.
When attempting to forecast Thomas’ 2015 season, we also need to factor in the loss of Julius Thomas.
As mentioned below, Manning relied on his massive tight end when in the red zone, a role that needs to
be filled. Not only is the vacancy enticing, but the departure also allows us to assume a higher
percentage of targets are thrown in Thomas’ direction. To nail down an exact number, I averaged his
target percentage from 2012, a season without elite tight end production, with his target percentage
from 2014, our clearest picture of what a regressing Manning means for DT. This estimates that he will
see 26.75 percent of targets, and with Manning averaging 613 passes and Thomas catching 65.42
percent of passes over that stretch, that would point to a 107 catch campaign. To further solidify my
projection, I wanted to cross analyze Thomas’ high rate of involvement last season (29.82 percent of
targets) with Manning’s 2012 pass attempt total (583). Carrying over his catch rate as a member of the
Broncos, a 114 catch ceiling exists. I’ll take the middle ground (111 receptions) and multiply it by his per
catch production (15.1 yards) to give us a yardage projection for 2015.
As mentioned, the touchdown rate is something to watch this season. With JT out of town, his seven red
zone scores need to be accounted for and DT is the natural fit given his low aDOT and knack for finding
pay dirt. He has turned 71.4 percent of his receptions from Manning inside the 10-yard line into
touchdowns, so even if he absorbs just two of those looks, his touchdown count is statistically likely to
rise by one. I don’t have him projected for an increase in scores this season, however, as Thomas did
find the end zone three times last season on deep passes, a total that is likely to decline given Manning’s
trajectory. Thomas’ number of deep receptions has declined by 25 percent each season while in Denver
and when you combine that with his declining deep target percentage, projecting one deep score is the
statistical favorite: leaving us with a net total of one fewer touchdown than in 2014.
Demaryius Thomas 2015 projection: 111 catches for 1,669 yards and 13 touchdowns
Other Bronco projections
Peyton Manning
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,953 pass yds – 43.7 pass TDs – 12 INTs – (-16.3) rush yds – 0.3 rush TDs
SOPtistic: A “bad” 2014 included more touchdowns, more yards per attempt, and fewer interceptions
than his final two seasons in Indianapolis.
Kyle’s Conscience: The loss of Julius Thomas is going to be felt in the red zone, an area where 67.9
percent of Manning’s touchdown passes have come since joining the Broncos. But, much like Lynch and
Seattle, the Broncos are committed to the Manning-focused offense, giving him a high floor that justifies
using an early pick on. Remember the worries about his ability to produce in Denver? Well, he
completed over 70 percent of his passes and averaged better than five touchdowns per interception at
home last year: I’ll take it. Take advantage of the late season struggles of 2014 to get a decent bargain
on the future hall of famer.
C.J. Anderson
2014 (16 game average): 1,251.2 total yards and 10.7 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Including the postseason, eight of his final nine games saw him total at least 96 yards. The only
reason it wasn’t nine for nine was because the endzone got in the way against Buffalo … three times.
Kyle’s Conscience: I’ll be perfectly honest with you: I think Anderson overachieved in a big way last
season. Half of his rushing touchdowns last season came from inside of three yards, a nice skill set to
have but a level of opportunity that is far from certain to repeat. He also gained a strangle hold of bell
cow duties as Peyton Manning began to struggle/defer, thus allowing him to flourish immediately. Most
importantly, however, was the fact that he leaped Montee Ball (24 years old) and Ronnie Hillman (23
years old) due to injuries. I’m not asking him to give back his league-leading 648 rushing yards over the
final six weeks of last season (5.9 percent more than second place DeMarco Murray), but there are two
other talented runners in this offense that is going to continue to be run through Peyton Manning. Can
the Broncos produce strong running numbers again in 2015? Sure, but understand that it is a roll of the
dice assuming that they all go to the same player.
Emmanuel Sanders
SOPtistic: He had three multi touchdown games in a two month stretch after not having a single such
game in his career.
Kyle’s Conscience: In his first season with Peyton Manning, the shifty Sanders had double digit targets or
a touchdown in the majority of games, a trend that speaks to his importance to this offense. He was the
most utilized receiver on both third down and in the red zone, a role that should only net him more
Fantasy value with Julius Thomas out of town. There is, however, some downside here if you’re buying
into Manning dwindling arm strength. Sanders saw 23.6 percent of his targets come on passes thrown at
least 20 yards down the field, trailing on Mike Evans and Julio Jones in deep receptions. One may
assume that the reliance on the deep ball may result in inconsistencies ala DeSean Jackson, but Sanders
recorded a reception of at least 20 yards in every single game last season. Any physical regression from
Manning would hurt Sanders the most of the Bronco play-makers, but if he continues to play at an elite
level, Sanders will be just fine.
Cody Latimer
2014 (16 game average): 4 catches – 46 yards – 0 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Physically he is put together a lot like consistent aDOT front-runner Michael Floyd and he
actually performed better than Floyd at the NFL combine (faster 40-yard dash, better vertical leap, and
more reps on the bench press).
Kyle’s Conscience: He averaged nearly 15.5 yards per reception over his final two seasons at Indiana
and he has the size to fill a similar downfield role in this Broncos offense. The former basketball prospect
came into the NFL projected to be an “effective slant runner that can make contested catches”, a skill
set that Peyton Manning can turn into Fantasy value in a hurry.
Owen Daniels
SOPtistic: He is averaging a touchdown every 13.1 receptions for his career despite playing with let’s call
it less than Fantasy friendly play at the quarterback position. He slides into a Broncos offense that saw
five players catch at least 60 balls in 2013.
Kyle’s Conscience: Go ahead and bet against Peyton Manning elevating the Fantasy stock of a newcomer, just don’t say that I’m the one who told you. His late season struggles are going to be in the back
of owners minds this draft season, something I expect to lead to some skepticism about the potential of
a 32-year-old Daniels entering a third new system in three seasons. Look at those 3-year 16-game
averages: those are Top 10 numbers in 2014. My argument to draft him as a starter is that playing for
Peyton Manning at least offsets the injury risk and has the potential to far exceed it. There is risk
involved, as Virgil Green is chomping at the bit for an opportunity, but the potential to get a weekly
contributor in a potent offense is rare.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Jamaal Charles
He was the seventh highest scoring running back in both Standard and PPR formats last season despite
disappearing for three games (27 touches for 93 yards and 0 touchdowns) and missing another. Does
that mean we saw his floor in 2014?
In fact, he had fewer than 16 touches on seven occasions last season, something he did a total of six
times in the previous two seasons combined. The result? Instead of going 11-4 in games with Charles
like in 2013, the Chiefs went 8-7. I’m going to go ahead and say that I’m not the first person to notice
this trend, so for my projected touch count, I’m going to adjust those seven games to a 16 touch total. If
you pencil in 16 touches for the game he missed as well, a 292 touch season is a reasonable bet for
2015.
Since tearing his ACL early in the 2011 season, 16.2 percent of Charles’ touches have been as a receiver,
a rate that should stay constant given Alex Smith’s conservative style. To calculate his yards per touch,
I’m going to evaluate his productivity in the Alex Smith era (4.99 yards per carry and 8.95 yards per
catch). The addition of Jeremy Maclin and departure of Dwayne Bowe could affect those numbers, but
given the limitations of Smith and Andy Reid’s resume of keeping versatile running backs busy, the
safest projection is one that reflects the past two seasons.
When it comes to determining the number of scores for Charles, I’m looking at a variety of contributing
factors. In 2014, he scored on 10 of his 33 touches (30.30 percent) inside the 20-yard line, slightly above
his three year average conversion rate of 24.77 percent. If we assume his average over the last three
seasons holds, we can expect him to score nine red zone touchdowns on 36 attempts, resulting in one
fewer TD than he had last season. If you take a look at his “involved” snaps per season (snaps in which
he was NOT asked to block), he has scored once every 44.85 involved snaps and has averaged 583
involved snaps per season. That reinforces our 13 touchdown total but we would be doing Charles a
disservice to not include the 17 touchdown upside he flashed just two seasons ago. If we average the 13
scores we calculated using his red zone looks and the 13 we just penciled in based on involved snap
count with the 17 touchdown ceiling, we get a 14 touchdown 2015, repeating his total from last year.
The week-to-week production has more variance than other elite options, but his explosive nature
makes his top notch year end totals something you can count on.
48 catches for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns
244 rushes for 1,218 yards and 10 touchdowns
Jamaal Charles 2015 projection: 292 touches for 1,648 yards and 14 touchdowns
Other Chief projections
Alex Smith
SOPtistic: If you subtract dropped and un-aimed passes, Smith was the second most accurate passer in
the NFL in 2014.
Kyle’s Conscience: Much was made of the fact that he didn’t throw a single touchdown to a receiver, but
how about the fact that he still managed 18 scoring passes? Or the fact that he ranked sixth in the
league in passing yards from Weeks 14-16 (his final three games of 2014)? He’s not a Fantasy savior, but
with a WR1 that seemingly fits his skill set a bit better (Jeremy Maclin) and an elite dual-threat back
behind him, he’s a viable option in two quarterback leagues. Travis Kelce is a strong option at tight end,
which means Smith is a breakout WR2 from his first 4,000 yard season. The elevated floor is tough to
find at this point in the draft and the stigma of his “game-manager” title will likely suppress his draft day
stock: take advantage if you’ve got a risky QB1 or selected a quarterback early in a two quarterback and
want a player who isn’t going to hurt you.
Jeremy Maclin
2012-2014 (16 game average): 78.9 catches – 1,103 yards – 8 touchdowns
SOPtistic: The Chiefs averaged 22.1 points per game last season, an obvious drop off from the high-flying
Eagles (29.6). But is that a bad thing? Maclin averaged 7 catches on 12 targets for 14.5 Standard Fantasy
points in the four games that Philadelphia failed to reach the 23 point plateau.
Kyle’s Conscience: It’s impossible to overlook the difference in sheer volume of passing attempts when
comparing Maclin’s old home (621) to his new one (493), but don’t forget that the Chiefs actually threw
more passes (546 to 508) just one season ago. Now, I’m not suggesting that this is a lateral move, but
let’s not completely dismiss Alex Smith as a quarterback that can provide at least one reasonable
Fantasy receiver. Alex Smith ranked dead last among qualified quarterbacks for the second consecutive
season, but maybe that isn’t such a bad thing when you consider that 63.6 percent of Maclin’s
receptions since 2012 have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Maclin is a much better
compliment to Smith than Dwayne Bowe, so don’t get lazy and simply avoid the newest Chief. His final
stat line won’t look like it did in 2014, but given his price tag, it doesn’t need to in order for him to net
you value.
Travis Kelce
2014: 67 catches - 862 yards - 5 touchdowns
SOPtistic: Of the 20 tight ends targeted at least 60 times, only Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas
averaged more PPR points per opportunity than Kelce.
Kyle’s Conscience: Given his stature and athleticism, Fantasy owners were correctly excited about the
upside here. Even in a low voltage passing attack, the rookie managed to gain at least 23 yards on a
reception or score in eight of his ten games. No team in the NFL attempted fewer passes and threw for
fewer touchdowns than the Chiefs, yet that 16 game extrapolation would have ranked him as the sixth
tight end in PPR leagues. Dwayne Bowe has moved on, and while Alex Smith isn’t going to channel his
inner Peyton Manning any time soon, a physical freak that is the top pass catching option on his team is
a Fanatsy starter in all formats with the potential to be a star.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Michael Crabtree
Volume. That has to be the base behind any optimistic Crabtree projection and hey, it’s reasonable. The
Raiders threw 29.2 percent more passes than the 49ers last season, more than enough of an uptick in
attempts to account for the lesser accuracy. Don’t believe me? Over the last three seasons, passes
thrown to Crabtree have been completed at a rate 4.55 percent higher than the quarterback’s season
average. That means that if we adjust Crabtree’s 2014 catch total based on Derek Carr’s accuracy and
not Colin Kaepernick’s, he would have hauled in 66 passes instead of 68. But had he been targeted with
29.2 percent more passes, his catch total would have spiked to 80 receptions, even with the slight
decline in quarterback accuracy.
In fact, there is a lot more to like about this Carr to Crabtree connection than just sheer number of
attempts. As Crabtree began to become a force early in his career, his production and aDOT had an
inverse relationship. A reasonable rookie campaign (11.1 aDOT) was followed up by consistent Fantasy
improvements in 2010 (10.9) and 2011 (9.5) before peaking with his true breakout season in 2012 (7.6).
During that 85-catch 1,105-yard 9-touchdown season, only 6.7 percent of his targets came 20-plus yards
down the field. His production has disappointed over the last two seasons … and his aDOT has been back
on the rise, averaging 9.3 yards since 2012. That would seem to coincide nicely with a quarterback in
Carr who was the least accurate downfield passer in football last season and finished his rookie season
with an 8.5 aDOT, a mark that is 13.3 percent lower that Colin Kaepernick’s over the last two seasons.
By no means am I comparing the two from a skill standpoint, but consider these numbers:
Andrew Luck rookie season: 339 completions on 627 attempts for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 18
interceptions
Derek Carr rookie season: 348 completions on 599 attempts for 3,270 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 12
interceptions
Obviously the yardage difference is huge, but the other numbers are very similar. Luck adjusted in his
sophomore season by taking far fewer chances down field (his deep pass percentage dropped from 16.1
percent to 10.5 percent) and developing a connection with a new number one receiver. Sound familiar?
Even more eerie is the stat line T.Y. Hilton produced in that season as Luck’s new top target: 82 catches
for 1,083 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Remember the 80 catches I calculated for Crabtree earlier? If you
project his career average yards per catch (12.5) and touchdown rate (one every 13.35 receptions), you
get an 80-1,000-6 stat line. That’s a tad optimistic for me, but I will use those averages and combine
them with his average catch rate from his three best seasons (2010-2012) for my final projection.
Michael Crabtree 2015 projection: 72 catches for 903 yards and 6 touchdowns
Other Raider projections
Derek Carr
2014: 3,270 pass yds – 21 pass TDs – 12 INTs – 92 rush yds – 0 rush TDs
SOPtistic: With the hope surrounding the Raiders ground game, it’s worth noting that the rookie tossed
eight touchdowns and no interceptions on play-action:
Kyle’s Conscience: The Raiders aren’t a loaded team, but they’ve got some reasonable pieces on offense
and with Carr showing some signs of competency in his rookie year, there is long-term hope here. Make
no mistake about it, he offers more risk than potential reward, but the big play potential of his skill
position players make him an intriguing plug-and-play option in the right spot. He took reasonably good
care of the ball for a rookie (21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions) and improved as the season
progressed (no interceptions in five of his final seven games). Look to him in daily leagues if you’re going
contrarian or in re-draft leagues if you need to take a flier, as he ranked fifth in “deep pass” attempts
and his four top receivers all stand at least 6’1” tall.
Latavius Murray
SOPtistic: He averaged 0.995 yards per snap played, the exact same rate of production for some guy
named Jamaal Charles who is the all-time leader in yards per carry among running backs.
Kyle’s Conscience: The Raiders brought in Trent Richardson to replace Darren McFadden and Maurice
Jones-Drew … consider me unimpressed. It’s less than ideal to have another running back in the mix, but
is Richardson an NFL talent? Murray showed big-time promise last season and was finally given the keys
to the car in December (83 percent of his carries last season came in the final month), a role I fully
expect him to assume in 2015. The Raiders offense was a wide open one last season, but was that more
the product of blind faith in a rookie quarterback or of a pathetic running game? Derek Carr is still going
to sling the ball, but I’d expect a bit more commitment to the run game this season (4.5 percent fewer
rush attempts than any other offense in 2014) and for Murray to be the unquestioned leader sooner
rather than later.
Amari Cooper
College Resume: Alabama wasn’t exactly an elite aerial attack by college standards, yet Cooper managed
to haul in 124 passes (at least eight receptions in 12 of 14 games) for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns in
2014. At 6’1” and 211 pounds, he will remind you of Roddy White (or DeAndre Hopkins if you’re looking
for a younger example) and walks into this league capable of making all the plays.
2015 Projection: 72 catches - 1,052 yards - 4 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: As a rookie, Derek Carr ranked seventh in all of football in pass attempts. As if that
wasn’t enough reason for optimism, the Raiders went out and added receiving weapons. Combine the
increase in talent with the projected growth of Carr and the potential to be playing from behind and it
wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that Oakland’s passing attack could provide the most “value” to
Fantasy owners this season. I think he shares to receiver duties with Crabtree, but both are more than
capable of working their way into your weekly lineup and could well come at a very nice price on draft
day.
James Jones
SOPtistic: Was targeted 13.3 percent more than any other season in his career, yet his first season in
Oakland resulted in just a slightly above average season for him in terms of yardage.
Kyle’s Conscience: As expected, there was a drop off in production as a result from leaving Green Bay,
but you could do worse than combine a high target rate with the proven ability to score touchdowns.
Derek Carr ranked eighth in the league in drop backs, an offensive game plan that probably isn’t
changing any time soon. Assuming he takes a step forward, Jones would be the primary beneficiary, as
he had the lowest aDOT of the Oakland receivers and Carr was the most inaccurate deep ball passer in
the league last season. Remember when Andrew Luck was a turnover machine in his rookie campaign
and followed it up with a much more conservative approach? To a lesser extent, I’d expect a similar line
of growth in Oakland, thus making his top receiver worth a roster spot.
Mychal Rivera
SOPtistic: Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski were the only two tight ends to see more targets in the
second half of last season than Rivera.
Kyle’s Conscience: What does a young quarterback need? The same thing that a 6’3” 245 pound tight
end offers: a reliable set of hands that isn’t going to venture too far down field. In fact, 77.6 percent of
Rivera’s receptions came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and considering that he had more
third down grabs than Rob Gronkowski last season, I’d say he has the trust of Derek Carr. The Raiders
have some athletically gifted wide outs, but the check-down role is Rivera’s and he should have a
reasonably high Fantasy floor as a result.
Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting Keenan Allen
Number one receivers have value in our Fantasy game, especially when one that has one of the most
accurate quarterbacks in the game on his team. Allen had a monster rookie season and regressed a bit
statistically last year, but there is plenty to like for a player who turned just 23 years of age this
offseason.
Allen has experienced some inconsistencies in his first two seasons, but it is encouraging to note that he
has totaled at least 60 yards or a touchdown in 16 of his career games. I like Allen’s skill set, but my
confidence in him stems primarily from getting Philip Rivers the support of a reasonable, or at least
healthy, running game. He spent most of the 2014 season without the RB1 (Ryan Mathews) that he was
counting on, thus resulting in an adjustment in offensive philosophy. He was victim of the same fate in
2012 and saw his pass attempt total increase by 3.2 percent in the following season, seemingly a result
of an ability to keep defenses honest. The Chargers made Melvin Gordon the 15th overall pick, and
second running back, selected in this year’s NFL Draft, a level of commitment that suggests they are
expecting the former Badger to assume starter duties right away. I’m not saying Gordon will be an All
Pro in his first season, but he will demand the attention of opponents and therefore I feel comfortable
projecting that same rate of uptick in pass attempts for Rivers in 2015: 588 pass attempts.
In the 29 career games with Allen in the mix, Rivers has completed 690 of his 997 passes, with 21.45
percent of his completions and 21.36 percent of his attempts going to his ace receiver. If you project
Rivers’ completion percentage in games with Allen (69.2 percent), we are looking at 407 completions in
2015, 87 of which end up in Allen’s hands. If we strive for a greater sample size and use Rivers’ career
completion percentage (64.7 percent), we are looking at 380 completions, 82 to Allen. In the interest of
using as much applicable data as possible, the average of those two totals makes Allen is a statistically
sound bet to catch 85 balls. Over the last five seasons, Rivers’ top yardage receiver has averaged 15.93
yards per catch while Allen averages 12.36 yards per reception through two seasons. Considering that
Allen is the strong favorite to lead this team in receiving, the average of those two calculations (14.15
yards) makes for a good per catch production projection.
Touchdowns are fickle and Allen is as good an example as any after seeing his scoring total cut in half
last year. In his rookie season, his seven red zone receptions resulted in six scores. Last season, just two
of his six catches inside the 20 yard line ended in a dance. It’s hard to project which version of Allen is
the “real” version given those are the only two sets of data we have to work with, but if we play both
sides and take the middle ground, his four red zone touchdowns represent a two score increase from
2014 and two score decrease from 2013 is the most likely outcome.
Keenan Allen 2015 projection: 85 catches for 1,202 yards and 6 touchdowns
Other Charger projections
Philip Rivers
2012-2014 (16 game average): 4,123 pass yds – 29.7 pass TDs – 14.7 INTs – 71.3 rush yds – 0 rush TDs
SOPtistic: He threw 16 interceptions in his final 10 games of 2014 after having thrown 16 passes to the
wrong team in the 23 months prior.
Kyle’s Conscience: Considering that his number one receiver took most of 2014 off and his tight end
faded in the second half (75 percent of his touchdowns came in the first eight games and he averaged
19.3 percent more yards per catch came in the early going), the fact that Rivers was able to finish with
as many points per drop back as Drew Brees is damn impressive. The departure of Ryan Mathews leaves
a vacancy in the backfield that figures to be filled by a more versatile and healthier option, not a bad
thing for Fantasy owners. The return of Danny Woodhead and a reasonable rebound from Keenan Allen
would go a long way, as the additions of Stevie Johnson and Jacoby Jones combine with Malcolm Floyd
for a potent down field attack. Antonio Gates is aging, but paring his experience with the upside that I
expect to be forgotten of Ladarius Green, and you’ve got yourself a nice set of receiving options in San
Diego. Don’t forget that Rivers has completed a higher percentage of his passes over the last three
seasons than Aaron Rodgers, a level of efficiency that should allow him to sustain strong value as his
number of attempts has jumped in consecutive seasons.
Melvin Gordon
College Resume: He amassed 4,196 rushing yards over his final two seasons at Wisconsin, reaching the
endzone via the rush 41 times over that stretch. He also emerged as a threat out of the backfield for the
first time in his senior year, as more than two-thirds of his career receiving yardage came in 2014.
2015 Projection: 1,168 yards and 6 touchdowns
Kyle’s Conscience: With Ryan Mathews now in Philadelphia, the Chargers are without a proven
workhorse. Gordon profiles as such, and that’s a good thing as volume of touches is a must when playing
behind a porous offensive line. Danny Woodhead is likely to play on third downs and Branden Oliver
earned some work with a strong showing last season, but this is Gordon’s backfield from day one. The
poor offensive line does have a silver-lining: the Chargers need to stay committed to the run game in an
effort to keep Philip Rivers upright. Don’t be surprised if he surpasses the 250-carry plateau this season,
a usage rate that puts him in the RB2 conversation.
Branden Oliver
SOPtistic: He accounted for 51.6 percent of his Standard Fantasy points in a three game stretch. He
averaged 5.5 yards per touch in those games, a 48.6 percent increase from his production rate over his
other 11 games.
Kyle’s Conscience: With Ryan Mathews now playing a secondary role in Philly, Oliver is going to have
every chance to earn the role of primary ball carrier in San Diego if Melvin Gordon struggles to adjust to
life in the NFL, a role he thrived in last season. In the seven games that he touched the ball at least 15
times, the now 24-year-old averaged an impressive 16.5 PPR points. On the surface, it’s easy to like
Oliver, as his squaty build and versatile skill set would seemingly make him a Fantasy asset, but the
combination of Danny Woodhead’s return with one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in football
makes Oliver more of a gamble than a sure thing, even if Gordon doesn’t live up to expectations. He
would be the handcuff if you’re looking for to protect your Gordon investment, as we know that
Woodhead is not an every down back, but your late round selection should be on a player with more
upside.
Malcolm Floyd
SOPtistic: No receiver with at least 50 targets saw a higher percentage of his looks come at least 20
yards down field. Not bad considering Philip Rivers ranked 36th of 42 qualified quarterbacks in aDOT in
2013, a season played without Floyd for the most part.
2015 Projection: 49 catches – 819 yards – 5 touchdowns in 14 games
Kyle’s Conscience: Health is always the major concern when Floyd’s name comes up, as he has missed
nearly 3.5 seasons worth of games over his career, but the talent remains a risk worth taking at the right
spot. Over his last five seasons, 11.3 percent of his receptions have resulted in touchdowns, a rate that is
worth chasing. The running back situation is still a question mark, thus putting a greater onus on Philip
Rivers and the pass game and keeping Floyd on the Fantasy radar in all formats. He caught at least three
passes in each of his last 13 games, and given his 6’5” frame, that level of involvement is enough to
make him a bye week replacement at the minimum.
Antonio Gates
SOPtistic: He may have scored 12 touchdowns last season (one more than he scored in the previous two
seasons combined), but he failed to reach the end zone in the majority of games and didn’t eclipse 35
receiving yards in 75 percent of his scoreless contests.
Kyle’s Conscience: The lack of a running game and a competent offensive line make another strong
Fantasy performance from the veteran likely. I don’t doubt that he and Philip Rivers can combine to
approach last season’s totals, but the potential for him to miss some time and/or loss some snaps to
Ladarius Green (it didn’t happen last year, but it still would seem to be the five-year plan) has to be
accounted for in this his 35-year-old season.
Soppe’s PPR Ranks
Quarterbacks
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
Andrew Luck
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Russell Wilson
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Eli Manning
Tony Romo
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Ryan Tannehill
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Colin Kaepernick
Carson Palmer
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Andy Dalton
Jameis Winston
Nick Foles
Derek Carr
Joe Flacco
Teddy Bridgewater
Sam Bradford
Marcus Mariota
Running Backs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
DeMarco Murray
Adrian Peterson
Le’Veon Bell
Matt Forte
Arian Foster
Marshawn Lynch
LeSean McCoy
Justin Forsett
C.J. Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Joique Bell
Alfred Morris
Mark Ingram
Lamar Miller
Andre Ellington
Joseph Randle
Carlos Hyde
Jonathan Stewart
Melvin Gordon
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
Latavius Murray
C.J. Spiller
Giovani Bernard
Frank Gore
Chris Ivory
T.J. Yeldon
Tevin Coleman
Rashad Jennings
Isaiah Crowell
LeGarrette Blount
Doug Martin
Todd Gurley
Bishop Sankey
Devonta Freeman
David Cobb
Shane Vereen
Tre Mason
Fred Jackson
Theo Riddick
Darren Sproles
Andre Williams
Wide Receivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Calvin Johnson
Alshon Jeffery
Jordy Nelson
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Randall Cobb
Kelvin Benjamin
A.J. Green
Emmanuel Sanders
DeAndre Hopkins
Brandin Cooks
Jordan Matthews
T.Y. Hilton
Keenan Allen
Brandon Marshall
Julian Edelman
Sammy Watkins
Andre Johnson
Allen Robinson
Jarvis Landry
Roddy White
Marques Colston
Brandon LaFell
Eric Decker
Larry Fitzgerald
Brian Quick
Jeremy Maclin
Golden Tate
Kenny Stills
Kevin White
DeSean Jackson
Tight Ends
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Amari Cooper
Vincent Jackson
Mike Wallace
Anquan Boldin
Kendall Wright
Steve Smith
James Jones
Victor Cruz
Dwayne Bowe
Michael Floyd
Torrey Smith
Percy Harvin
Harry Douglas
Michael Crabtree
Doug Baldwin
Riley Cooper
DeVante Parker
Malcolm Floyd
Davante Adams
Nelson Agholor
Martavis Bryant
Cody Latimer
Devin Funchess
Eddie Royal
Marvin Jones
Cole Beasley
Charles Johnson
Robert Woods
John Brown
Jarius Wright
Rueben Randle
Andrew Hawkins
Terrence Williams
Allen Hurns
Markus Wheaton
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Rob Gronkowski
Greg Olsen
Martellus Bennett
Jimmy Graham
Jordan Cameron
Travis Kelce
Owen Daniels
Tyler Eifert
Julius Thomas
Delanie Walker
Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Mychal Rivera
Dwayne Allen
Charles Clay
Vernon Davis
Jared Cook
Zach Ertz
Larry Donnell
Coby Fleener
Heath Miller
Kyle Rudolph
FLEX
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
FLEX
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Julio Jones
DeMarco Murray
Adrian Peterson
Dez Bryant
Le’Veon Bell
Calvin Johnson
Rob Gronkowski
Alshon Jeffery
Matt Forte
Jordy Nelson
Arian Foster
Odell Beckham Jr.
Marshawn Lynch
LeSean McCoy
Mike Evans
Randall Cobb
Justin Forsett
Kelvin Benjamin
A.J. Green
C.J. Anderson
Emmanuel Sanders
Jeremy Hill
DeAndre Hopkins
Brandin Cooks
Jordan Matthews
Joique Bell
T.Y. Hilton
Keenan Allen
Alfred Morris
Mark Ingram
Brandon Marshall
Julian Edelman
Sammy Watkins
Andre Johnson
Lamar Miller
Allen Robinson
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
FLEX
Andre Ellington
Jarvis Landry
Joseph Randle
Carlos Hyde
Greg Olsen
Roddy White
Jonathan Stewart
Martellus Bennett
Jimmy Graham
Marques Colston
Melvin Gordon
Latavius Murray
Brandon LaFell
Eric Decker
Larry Fitzgerald
C.J. Spiller
Giovani Bernard
Brian Quick
Jeremy Maclin
Golden Tate
Kenny Stills
Frank Gore
Jordan Cameron
Kevin White
DeSean Jackson
Amari Cooper
Vincent Jackson
Mike Wallace
Anquan Boldin
Chris Ivory
Kendall Wright
Travis Kelce
T.J. Yeldon
Steve Smith
Tevin Coleman
James Jones
Rashad Jennings
Owen Daniels
Isaiah Crowell
Victor Cruz
81. Tyler Eifert
82. Julius Thomas
83. LeGarrette Blount
84. Dwayne Bowe
85. Michael Floyd
86. Doug Martin
87. Torrey Smith
88. Percy Harvin
89. Delanie Walker
90. Harry Douglas
91. Antonio Gates
92. Jason Witten
93. Todd Gurley
94. Mychal Rivera
95. Dwayne Allen
96. Michael Crabtree
97. Doug Baldwin
98. Riley Cooper
99. Devante Parker
100. Malcolm Floyd
101. Bishop Sankey
102. Davante Adams
103. Nelson Agholor
104. Devonta Freeman
105. Martavis Bryant
106. Cody Latimer
107. David Cobb
108. Devin Funchess
109. Eddie Royal
110. Marvin Jones
111. Cole Beasley
112. Charles Johnson
113. Vernon Davis
114. Robert Woods
115. John Brown
116. Jared Cook
117. Shane Vereen
118. Zach Ertz
119. Jarius Wright
120. Charles Clay
Soppe’s Standard Ranks
Running Backs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
DeMarco Murray
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Le’Veon Bell
Arian Foster
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Justin Forsett
Jeremy Hill
C.J. Anderson
Alfred Morris
Mark Ingram
Joique Bell
Lamar Miller
Joseph Randle
Andre Ellington
Jonathan Stewart
Melvin Gordon
Carlos Hyde
Running Backs
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
Latavius Murray
Frank Gore
Chris Ivory
T.J. Yeldon
Giovani Bernard
Tevin Coleman
Rashad Jennings
LeGarrette Blount
Isaiah Crowell
C.J. Spiller
Doug Martin
Todd Gurley
Bishop Sankey
Tre Mason
Devonta Freeman
Fred Jackson
Shane Vereen
David Cobb
Andre Williams
Theo Riddick
Branden Oliver
Wide Receivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Calvin Johnson
Alshon Jeffery
Odell Beckham Jr.
Jordy Nelson
Mike Evans
Randall Cobb
A.J. Green
Kelvin Benjamin
DeAndre Hopkins
Brandin Cooks
Emmanuel Sanders
Jordan Matthews
T.Y. Hilton
Brandon Marshall
Sammy Watkins
Julian Edelman
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Andre Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Larry Fitzgerald
Marques Colston
Brandon LaFell
Brian Quick
Roddy White
Kevin White
Eric Decker
Jeremy Maclin
Golden Tate
Vincent Jackson
Kendall Wright
Anquan Boldin
Mike Wallace
Kenny Stills
Wide Receivers
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Amari Cooper
DeSean Jackson
Victor Cruz
Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith
Michael Crabtree
Percy Harvin
James Jones
Harry Douglas
Doug Baldwin
MichaelFloyd
Torrey Smith
Riley Cooper
Martavis Bryant
Malcolm Floyd
Nelson Agholor
CodyLatimer
DeVante Parker
Marvin Jones
Davante Adams
Eddie Royal
Rueben Randle
Devin Funchess
Charles Johnson
John Brown
Jarius Wright
Terrance Williams
Markus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Andrew Hawkins
Greg Jennings
Andrew Hawkins
Tight Ends
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Jordan Cameron
Martellus Bennett
Greg Olsen
Travis Kelce
Julius Thomas
Owen Daniels
Tyler Eifert
Antonio Gates
Dwayne Allen
Delanie Walker
Vernon Davis
Jason Witten
Mychal Rivera
Zach Ertz
Jared Cook
Larry Donnell
Charles Clay
Coby Fleener
Heath Miller
Kyle Rudolph
FLEX
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
DeMarco Murray
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Le’Veon Bell
Arian Foster
Julio Jones
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Dez Bryant
Rob Gronkowski
Calvin Johnson
Alshon Jeffery
Odell Beckham Jr.
Jordy Nelson
Mike Evans
Randall Cobb
A.J. Green
Kelvin Benjamin
Justin Forsett
Jeremy Hill
DeAndre Hopkins
C.J. Anderson
Alfred Morris
Mark Ingram
Brandin Cooks
Emmanuel Sanders
FLEX
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
FLEX
Jordan Matthews
T.Y. Hilton
Joique Bell
Jimmy Graham
Brandon Marshall
Sammy Watkins
Julian Edlelman
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Lamar Miller
Andre Johnson
Joseph Randle
Andre Ellington
Jonathan Stewart
Melvin Gordon
Carlos Hyde
Jordan Cameron
Latavius Murray
Jarvis Landry
Frank Gore
Larry Fitzgerald
Martellus Bennett
Greg Olsen
Chris Ivory
Marques Colston
T.J. Yeldon
Giovani Bernard
Tevin Coleman
Rashad Jennings
LeGarrette Blount
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
FLEX
Isaiah Crowell
Travis Kelce
Brandon LaFell
Roddy White
Julius Thomas
Brian Quick
Kevin White
Eric Decker
Jeremy Maclin
Golden Tate
Vincent Jackson
C.J. Spiller
Kendall Wright
Anquan Boldin
Mike Wallace
Kenny Stills
Amari Cooper
DeSean Jackson
Owen Daniels
Doug Martin
Tyler Eifert
Todd Gurley
Victor Cruz
Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith
Antonio Gates
Dwayne Allen
Tre Mason
Michael Crabtree
Percy Harvin
91. James Jones
92. Harry Douglas
93. Doug Baldwin
94. Michael Floyd
95. Torrey Smith
96. Riley Cooper
97. Martavis Bryant
98. Malcolm Floyd
99. Nelson Agholor
100. Cody Latimer
101. DeVante Parker
102. Marvin Jones
103. Davante Adams
104. Vernon Davis
105. Delanie Walker
106. Bishop Sankey
107. Jason Witten
108. Mychal Rivera
109. Zach Ertz
110. Eddie Royal
111. Rueben Randle
112. Devin Funchess
114. David Cobb
115. John Brown
116. Jarius Wright
117. Terrance Williams
118. Markus Wheaton
119. Jared Cook
PPR Projection Ranks
Quarterbacks
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
Andrew Luck
Aaron Rodgers
Cam Newton
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Russell Wilson
Tony Romo
Drew Brees
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Colin Kaepernick
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Ryan Tannehill
Andy Dalton
Jay Cutler
Derek Carr
Carson Palmer
Teddy Bridgewater
Jameis Winston
Alex Smith
Nick Foles
Marcus Mariota
Tom Brady
Joe Flacco
Sam Bradford
Running Backs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson
Matt Forte
Justin Forsett
DeMarco Murray
Le’Veon Bell
LeSean McCoy
Arian Foster
Marshawn Lynch
C.J. Anderson
Joique Bell
Jeremy Hill
Andre Ellington
Lamar Miller
Mark Ingram
Giovani Bernard
Jonathan Stewart
Alfred Morris
Latavius Murray
C.J. Spiller
Melvin Gordon
Running Backs
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
Tevin Coleman
Chris Ivory
Frank Gore
Rashad Jennings
Carlos Hyde
Joseph Randle
Isaiah Crowell
Doug Martin
Todd Gurley
LeGarrette Blount
T.J. Yeldon
Devonta Freeman
Fred Jackson
Bishop Sankey
Shane Vereen
Darren Sproles
Theo Riddick
Andre Williams
Tre Mason
David Cobb
Branden Oliver
Wide Receivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Calvin Johnson
Alshon Jeffery
Dez Bryant
Jordy Nelson
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Randall Cobb
Kelvin Benjamin
DeAndre Hopkins
A.J. Green
Jordan Matthews
Emmauel Sanders
Brandin Cooks
Keenan Allen
Julian Edelman
Brandon Marshall
Sammy Watkins
Roddy White
Eric Decker
T.Y. Hilton
Allen Robinson
Brian Quick
Jarvis Landry
Marques Colston
Brandon LaFell
Andre Johnson
Kenny Stills
Jeremy Maclin
DeSean Jackson
James Jones
Victor Cruz
Golden Tate
Wide Receivers
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Amari Cooper
Larry Fitzgerald
Michael Crabtree
Michael Floyd
Riley Cooper
Percy Harvin
Vincent Jackson
Steve Smith
Anquan Boldin
Mike Wallace
Kendall Wright
Doug Baldwin
Harry Douglas
Dwayne Bowe
Martavis Bryant
Malcolm Floyd
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Torrey Smith
Markus Wheaton
Davante Adams
Terrance Williams
Robert Woods
John Brown
Eddie Royal
Cody Latimer
Rueben Randle
Charles Johnson
Nelson Agholor
Marvin Jones
Jarius Wright
Greg Jennings
Allen Hurns
Devin Funchess
Andrew Hawkins
Tight Ends
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Rob Gronkowski
Greg Olsen
Martellus Bennett
Jordan Cameron
Jimmy Graham
Travis Kelce
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels
Tyler Eifert
Antonio Gates
Delanie Walker
Julius Thomas
Jared Cook
Mychal Rivera
Vernon Davis
Heath Miller
Dwayne Allen
Charles Clay
Coby Fleener
Zach Ertz
Kyle Rudolph
Larry Donnell
FLEX
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
FLEX
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Calvin Johnson
Eddie Lacy
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffery
Jamaal Charles
Jordy Nelson
Adrian Peterson
Matt Forte
Odell Beckham Jr.
Justin Forsett
Mike Evans
DeMarco Murray
Rob Gronkowski
Randall Cobb
Kelvin Benjamin
Le’Veon Bell
LeSean McCoy
DeAndre Hopkins
A.J. Green
Arian Foster
Marshawn Lynch
Jordan Matthews
C.J. Anderson
Emmanuel Sanders
Brandin Cooks
Joique Bell
Keenan Allen
Jeremy Hill
Julian Edelman
Brandon Marshall
Sammy Watkins
Roddy White
Eric Decker
Andre Ellington
T.Y. Hilton
Allen Robinson
Brian Quick
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
FLEX
Jarvis Landry
Marques Colston
Jimmy Graham
Greg Olsen
Brandon LaFell
Lamar Miller
Martellus Bennett
Andre Johnson
Jordan Cameron
Kenny Stills
Travis Kelce
Mark Ingram
Jeremy Maclin
DeSean Jackson
Jason Witten
James Jones
Victor Cruz
Golden Tate
Amari Cooper
Larry Fitzgerald
Michael Crabtree
Giovani Bernard
Jonathan Stewart
Michael Floyd
Riley Cooper
Alfred Morris
Percy Harvin
Vincent Jackson
Owen Daniels
Latavius Murray
Steve Smith
Anquan Boldin
Tyler Eifert
Mike Wallace
Kendall Wright
C.J. Spiller
Doug Baldwin
Antonio Gates
Melvin Gordon
Tevin Coleman
81. Delanie Walker
82. Chris Ivory
83. Frank Gore
84. Julius Thomas
85. Harry Douglas
86. Rashad Jennings
87. Dwayne Bowe
88. Jared Cook
89. Mychal Rivera
90. Vernon Davis
91. Carlos Hyde
92. Martavis Bryant
93. Malcolm Floyd
94. Heath Miller
95. Kevin White
96. DeVante Parker
97. Torrey Smith
98. Markus Wheaton
99. Davante Adams
100. Dwayne Allen
102. Charles Clay
103. Joseph Randle
104. Isaiah Crowell
105. Robert Woods
106. John Brown
107. Doug Martin
108. Coby Fleener
109. Eddie Royal
110. Cody Latimer
111. Todd Gurley
112. Rueben Randle
113. LeGarrette Blount
114. T.J. Yeldon
116. Zach Ertz
117. Fred Jackson
119. Nelson Agholor
120. Bishop Sankey
Standard Projection Ranks
Running Backs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Adrian Peterson
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
DeMarco Murray
Marshawn Lynch
Justin Forsett
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
C.J. Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Arian Foster
Le’Veon Bell
Joique Bell
Mark Ingram
Alfred Morris
Andre Ellington
Lamar Miller
Jonathan Stewart
Melvin Gordon
Latavius Murray
Tevin Coleman
Chris Ivory
Running Backs
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
Carlos Hyde
Frank Gore
Isaiah Crowell
Rashad Jennings
Giovani Bernard
Joseph Randle
LeGarrette Blount
Doug Martin
Todd Gurley
C.J. Spiller
T.J. Yeldon
Bishop Sankey
Devonta Freeman
Andre Williams
Fred Jackson
Tre Mason
Theo Riddick
Darren Sproles
David Cobb
Shane Vereen
Branden Oliver
Wide Receivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Demaryius Thomas
Julio Jones
Calvin Johnson
Antonio Brown
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffery
Jordy Nelson
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Kelvin Benjamin
DeAndre Hopkins
A.J. Green
Randall Cobb
Jordan Matthews
Emmanuel Sanders
Keenan Allen
Sammy Watkins
Brandon Marshall
T.Y. Hilton
Eric Decker
Wide Receivers
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Brandin Cooks
Brian Quick
Roddy White
Allen Robinson
Marques Colston
Kenny Stills
DeSean Jackson
Brandon LaFell
Andre Johnson
Julian Edelman
Michael Floyd
Jeremy Maclin
Jarvis Landry
Victor Cruz
Amari Cooper
Michael Crabtree
Golden Tate
Riley Cooper
Larry Fitzgerald
James Jones
Vincent Jackson
Percy Harvin
Steve Smith
Mike Wallace
Anquan Boldin
Wide Receivers
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Martavis Bryant
Malcolm Floyd
Doug Baldwin
Kendall Wright
Kevin White
Torrey Smith
Dwayne Bowe
Terrance Williams
DeVante Parker
John Brown
Harry Douglas
Cody Latimer
Davante Adams
Markus Wheaton
Rueben Randle
Eddie Royal
Charles Johnson
Robert Woods
Nelson Agholor
Marvin Jones
Jarius Wright
Allen Hurns
Greg Jennings
Devin Funchess
Andrew Hawkins
Tight Ends
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Rob Gronkowski
Jordan Cameron
Jimmy Graham
Martellus Bennett
Travis Kelce
Greg Olsen
Jason Witten
Owen Daniels
Vernon Davis
Antonio Gates
Tyler Eifert
Julius Thomas
Delanie Walker
Jared Cook
Dwayne Allen
Mychal Rivera
Coby Fleener
Heath Miller
Charles Clay
Zach Ertz
Kyle Rudolph
Larry Donnell
FLEX
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
FLEX
Adrian Peterson
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Demaryius Thomas
DeMarco Murray
Marshawn Lynch
Justin Forsett
Julio Jones
Matt Forte
Calvin Johnson
Antonio Brown
LeSean McCoy
Dez Bryant
C.J. Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Alshon Jeffery
Jordy Nelson
Arian Foster
Le’Veon Bell
Odell Beckham Jr.
Joique Bell
Mike Evans
Rob Gronkowski
Kelvin Benjamin
DeAndre Hopkins
A.J. Green
Andre Ellington
Mark Ingram
Alfred Morris
Randall Cobb
Jordan Matthews
Lamar Miller
Emmanuel Sanders
Jonathan Stewart
Keenan Allen
Sammy Watkins
Brandon Marshall
T.Y. Hilton
Melvin Gordon
Eric Decker
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
FLEX
Brandin Cooks
Latavius Murray
Brian Quick
Tevin Coleman
Jimmy Graham
Roddy White
Chris Ivory
Allen Robinson
Marques Colston
Carlos Hyde
Frank Gore
Kenny Stills
DeSean Jackson
Jordan Cameron
Brandon LaFell
Andre Johnson
Martellus Bennett
Julian Edelman
Travis Kelce
Greg Olsen
Isaiah Crowell
Michael Floyd
Rashad Jennings
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Maclin
Jarvis Landry
Victor Cruz
Amari Cooper
Joseph Randle
LeGarrette Blount
Michael Crabtree
Golden Tate
Riley Cooper
Doug Martin
Jason Witten
Larry Fitzgerald
James Jones
Todd Gurley
Vincent Jackson
Percy Harvin
81. C.J. Spiller
82. Owen Daniels
83. Steve Smith
84. Mike Wallace
85. Anquan BOldin
86. Vernon Davis
87. Antonio Gates
88. Martavis Bryant
89. T.J. Yeldon
90. Tyler Eifert
91. Malcolm Floyd
92. Bishop Sankey
93. Doug Baldwin
94. Kendall Wright
95. Julius Thomas
96. Delanie Walker
97. Jared Cook
98. Kevin White
99. Torrey Smith
100. Dwayne Bowe
103. Dwayne Allen
104. Andre Williams
105. Fred Jackson
106. DeVante Parker
107. Mychal Rivera
108. Coby Fleener
109. Tre Mason
110. John Brown
111. Harry Douglas
112. Cody Latimer
113. Heath Miller
114. Davante Adams
115. Markus Wheaton
116. Rueben Randle
117. Charles Clay
118. Eddie Royal
119. Zach Ertz
Fantasy Football: Maximizing Thursday Night Gains
Nobody likes Thursday Night Football. Not the players that are forced to prepare in half the time. Not
the fans who watch a lessened product. Not the analysts who need to have their ranks out that much
earlier. I take that back … one group loves this event and it’s the only group that matters.
The accountants. As long as we are tuning in, and we are, the NFL is going to continue to rake in the
revenue and this series has a better chance at being expanded than it does being canceled. You can
continue to complain, but the NFL isn’t listening and they have no reason to. So why continue to fight a
losing battle instead of embracing the game and fully understanding how to treat it from a Fantasy
perspective? With two years of weekly Thursday night games, we’ve got a reasonable sample size to
interpret and the news isn’t all bad.
One could simply look at the Fantasy point totals of quarterbacks/running backs on Thursday Night’s and
compare it to their yearlong production, but that only tells half the story. In order to fully understand
the impact of Thursday Night production, you need to account for the defense and their statistics
against the studied position. To do this, I simply averaged out the position player’s non-Thursday
production and the defense’s non-Thursday positional production allowed to give me a reasonable
projection for how many Fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) one should expect when that player
faced that defense. Once I had this estimation, I compared it to the Fantasy production that actually
took place and evaluated the results. The process gets a bit more complicated for running backs, so let’s
ease into things with the quarterbacks. Do note that quarterbacks who didn’t start with regularity and
games that were not played on short rest (Opening Day for both seasons and the Cowboys/Bears Week
14 contest in 2014 that came on the heels of both teams playing the previous Thursday night) were not
included.
Quarterbacks 2013
30
25
20
15
10
Actual
5
Expected
Tom Brady
Alex Smith
Mike Vick
Sam Bradford
Colin Kaepernick
Brandon Weeden
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Russell Wilson
Carson Palmer
Cam Newton
Ryan Tannehill
Andy Dalton
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin
Andrew Luck
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Tony Romo
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Peyton Manning
0
Quarterbacks 2014
30
25
20
15
10
Actual
Expected
5
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Geno Smith
Peyton Manning
Philip Rivers
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Andy Dalton
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Tannehill
Kyle Orton
Derek Carr
Alex Smith
Jay Cutler
Matthew Stafford
Tony Romo
Mark Sanchez
Colin Kaepernick
Russell Wilson
Shaun Hill
Blake Bortles
0
As you can see, there are some outliers in both directions and that is to be expected. Here is a visual
look at how the production broke down across the quarterback position as a whole.
Quarterback Distribution 2013
Actual within 10% of
expected
Actual < -10% of
expected
Actual > +10% of
expected
Quarterback Distrbiution 2014
expected
Actual < -10% of
expected
Actual > +10% of
expected
2013-2014 Conclusion
Over two seasons, we have seen 60.8 percent of quarterbacks fail to reach their projection with the
average quarterback (51 qualified) falling 8.47 percent short of the expectation. The percentage of
failure fell from 72 percent to 50 percent in 2014, but the level of disappointment rose, as quarterbacks
underachieved by 9.51 percent in 2014 as compared to the 7.43 percent in 2013.
Notes from 2014
-
Pocket based quarterbacks found the most success while mobile quarterbacks found the short
turnaround a major problem. The Manning Brothers and Matt Ryan led the way when it comes
to production above projection while Kaepernick, Wilson, and Newton combined to finish 55.1
percent short of their expected point totals. Sure, the opponent played has something to do
with that (although it is accounted for in the formula), but Andrew Luck was the only QB to
finish the season within the Top 15 at the position in rushing yards that produced at least 19
percent above his projected total. The train of thought here is that quarterbacks, no matter how
big, are not built for contact, so those who absorb the most are big-time threats to
underachieve on Thursdays.
-
Four of the six “worst matchups”, defined by the lowest expected point total, saw the
quarterback underachieve despite the modest expectations. Does that mean you should avoid
the difficult matchups, but shell out top dollar when a signal caller has a strong matchup? Not so
much. The three quarterbacks with the “best matchups” all underachieved, producing an
average of 38.7 percent fewer Fantasy points than the numbers suggested likely. There simply
isn’t a “safe” option to be had.
-
If you’re going to roster a Thursday Night quarterback in Daily, do it early in the season. Six of
the first nine measured quarterbacks overachieved last season, while only four of the next nine
did so outperformed their projection.
0
Bishop Sankey
Marshawn…
LeSean McCoy
DeMarco…
Joique Bell
Matt Forte
Jamaal Charles
Lamar Miller
Terrance West
Jeremy Hill
Mark Ingram
Jonathan…
Ronnie Hillman
Chris Ivory
Shane Vereen
Arian Foster
Ahmad…
Matt Asiata
Eddie Lacy
Alfred Morris
Andre Williams
Bobby Rainey
Steven Jackson
Le'Veon Bell
Knowshon Moreno
Ryan Mathews
Ben Tate
Maurice Jones-Drew
Le'Veon Bell
Ray Rice
DeMarco Murray
Eddie Lacy
Reggie Bush
Steven Jackson
Chris Johnson
Alfred Morris
Adrian Peterson
Lamar Miller
Rashard Mendenhall
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Willis McGahee
Frank Gore
Daryl Richardson
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
Stevan Ridley
Quarterbacks need to be understood, but they are not the only decision you will be faced with. It should
not be a surprise that with the decline in quarterback performance came with an even greater decline in
average WR1 production. But does the faltering pass game suggest that defenses are the quicker group
to recover or does it open up the door for running backs to produce at a higher level than the numbers
would project?
Running Backs 2013
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
Actual
0
Expected
Running Backs 2014
25
20
15
10
Actual
Expected
5
These numbers were calculated in a similar fashion to the quarterbacks where those without a
significant volume of work in a lead role were not included, but the research method was improved for
the 2014 season. For 2013, I charted RB1 statistics and attempted to sift through game logs and
manually determine the Fantasy points allowed by each defense to RB1’s for the season. While in theory
this was a strong idea, it required my judgment as to who was the RB1 at that moment in time, a title
rarely comes with clarity. For 2014, I let the numbers to the talking. The average defense allowed 266.54
Fantasy points to running backs and the average RB1 totaled 149.16 Fantasy points. In other words, on a
game-to-game basis, the RB1 was responsible for 57.1 percent of the running back Fantasy points for his
team. Using this figure as my base, I multiplied how many Fantasy points each defense allowed to RB’s
for the season by 0.571 and divided by the 15 non-Thursday games. This formula allowed me to nail
down a stable weekly projection for how many Fantasy points allowed to RB1’s. I was able to then
compare the RB1’s actual production against this expected total and see if they offered a positive return
on investment on Thursday or not.
The positional breakdown paints an even more encouraging picture when it comes to the running back
position as a whole when it comes to playing games mid-Week.
Running Back Distribution 2013
expected
Actual < -10% of
expected
Actual > +10% of
expected
Running Back Distrbution 2014
expected
Actual < -10% of
expected
Actual > +10% of
expected
2013-2014 Conclusion
The adjustment in research method makes comparing the two sets of data a bit difficult, but not
impossible. We’ve seen 61.7 percent of RB1’s produce above their expected value over the last two
seasons, a rate that jumped from 56.5 percent in 2013 to 66.7 percent in 2014.
Notes from 2014
-
Lead running backs outperformed their statistical projection by an average of 40.90 percent,
scoring better than 3.5 more points than was numerically likely.
-
Like the quarterback pattern we unearthed earlier, the best time is to take running backs in the
early going, as 10 of the first 12 studied RB1’s overachieved while just six of the final 12 did so.
-
The five “elite” backs in the NFL, defined as a player who totaled at least 200 Fantasy points,
averaged 2.62 points more than their projection.
-
The bad run defenses were even worse on Thursday’s, as the five worst run defenses allowed
RB1’s to produce 0.27 more Fantasy points than expected. No, not a big difference, but the
expected value already takes into consideration the defenses deficiency.
-
An interesting trend to watch is the apparent tendency for running back production to regress
to the league mean (10.15 Fantasy points). Six of the 10 highest projected performers
underachieved and eight of the 10 lowest projected performers overachieved. Yep, these games
have, to some level, been predictability unpredictable.
Impact of Deep Passing
In “real life”, quarterbacks are asked to be careful with the shots they take downfield. There might not
be a greater example of this than Jay Cutler: a quarterback with plenty of God given ability that is not
assured a starting gig in 2015 due to his reckless nature. In fact, there isn’t a single signal caller who is
averaging fewer deep passes per deep interception over the last two seasons. That’s obviously not an
ideal trend, but Cutler is only one example. Coaches want to limit risk and would thus prefer a QB who
takes few chances with “deep passes”, defined as throws that travel at least 20 yards down field, but
how should Fantasy owners approach the deep pass? That is, should you draft a quarterback who is
among the most accurate when it comes to throwing the long ball or a quarterback that tops the charts
in number of long passes attempted?
Obviously, a quarterback that does both would be best, but over the last five seasons, we haven’t seen a
single player reach both thresholds used in this study (80 deep attempts while completing 50 percent of
those passes). Not the record breaking Peyton Manning, not the consistent Drew Brees, not the great
Aaron Rodgers. Not a one. But we have seen 13 different players reach one of those plateaus since 2010
and the results may surprise you a bit.
Here are the average Fantasy numbers by those who finished a season with at least 80 deep attempts.
Season
2011
2012
2012
2010
2012
2011
2013
2014
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
Average/16 games
Player
Eli Manning
Andrew Luck
Joe Flacco
Peyton Manning
Josh Freeman
Cam Newton
Joe Flacco
Andrew Luck
Matthew Stafford
Andy Dalton
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Attempts
109
101
92
92
89
89
88
88
86
86
84
83
80
83.8
Year Fantasy Points
304.5
304.5
250.9
304.6
267.5
383.5
229.6
378.8
298.3
314.1
348.3
432
366.6
351.9
Some big names appear on this list, but so do some one-year wonders that carried Fantasy squads. It is
clear that quantity of deep pass attempts is a key when it comes to determining Fantasy upside, but is it
more crucial than accuracy on said passes?
Season
2014
2012
2012
2012
2011
2010
2014
2014
2014
2014
Average/16 games
Player
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tony Romo
Joe Flacco
Completions
31
26
33
28
37
31
26
27
29
21
29.1
Year Fantasy Points
300.3
357.7
324
340.9
403.6
294.5
361.1
324.1
281.3
274.6
328.3
You bet! As you can see from this list (sorted by completion percentage on deep passes with a minimum
CMP% of 50 percent), the more accurate quarterbacks are the names you expect, but the Fantasy
production is lagging a bit when compared to the volume passers. This stands to reason, as the risk from
a deep pass is simply an interception (-2 points) while the reward is considerably higher, but it does
challenge what is considered “good” football.
So what quarterbacks are trending in the right direction? Well, believe it or not, no quarterback has
attempted more deep passes over the last two seasons than Peyton Manning (153 attempts). The future
hall of famer is also the only quarterback working on a streak of three consecutive seasons with 1,000
yards gained via the long pass: no other quarterback has done it even twice in a row. Philip Rivers
attempted 35.1 percent more deep passes last season than he did in 2013, and while it didn’t help him
last season, the averages suggest that this style is more Fantasy friendly. Nick Foles has led qualified
quarterbacks in percentage of passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field in back-to-back seasons,
making him an intriguing option in a new system.
Heading in the other direction are Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Drew Brees. Flacco has seen his deep
pass attempt count dip in back-to-back seasons, including a significant 36.4 percent drop-off from 2013
to 2014. The Red Rifle’s decline in dangerous passes was even more significant (36.4 percent) last
season and is damning given his reliance on A.J. Green making plays down the field. Brees, while he
remained a Top 5 scoring quarterback, saw his deep pass attempt count fall by 15.8 percent from his
previous three year average, a decline that is worrisome given his advanced age.
Now, I’m not suggesting that you simply rank quarterbacks based on how deep passes you think they
will attempt, but their aggression needs to play a part in the ranking process. Remember when we
couldn’t spell elite without “E-L-I” in the 2010 and 2011 seasons? Well, the younger Manning led the
league in deep pass attempts over those two campaigns and he has seen his long pass total increase in
back-to-back seasons, something I see continuing given the skill set of his receivers. He is just one
example of a player that needs to rise in your ranks based on the idea that the risk of deep passing is far
outweighed by the reward.
Wide Receiver Distribution
“Golden age”.
The term seems to be a bit overrated these days, as we are using it in every sport. In the NBA, it’s the
point guards. In the MLB, it’s starting pitching. And, of course, in the NFL it is all about the quarterback.
For all three of these sports, it is commonly believed that a team should not expect to compete without
an elite player at these positions given the quantity of upper echelon talent. It is no longer an advantage
to have a plus-player, rather expected.
That is the game these professional franchises are playing, but the Fantasy world is a bit different. Sure,
having a great point guard/starting pitcher/quarterback is nice, but with those players putting up big
numbers, there are subtle beneficiaries that tend to fly under the radar.
It is widely known that passing numbers are up, and while it is a bit overblown, it is true.
Attempts
Yards
570
3900
3800
560
3700
550
3600
540
3500
3400
530
3300
3200
520
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Yards/Att
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
As you can see, the average attempts per team dipped a bit last season, but with the interpretation of
rules changing to favor the offense, the yardage production continued its steady uptick over the last five
seasons. This is not top secret information, but what you do with this information is key. Yes, it means
quarterbacks are going to put up greater numbers than they once did, but you’re not any smarter than
your league mates with that simplistic look. Dig deeper. Or at least read further while I do.
Breaking news: when a quarterback records a completion, someone is on the catching side of it. The big
name receivers tend to rise up draft boards, as they are the heavily targeted players in a pass-happy era.
Makes sense. And the five year numbers indicate that as much is true, as WR1’s (defined as the team’s
leader in receiving yards) have been considerably greater than the WR2 (defined as the team’s receiver
with the second most receiving yards, running backs/tight ends are not counted).
2010-2014
WR1
WR2
Change
Catches
73.43
51.64
42.19%
Targets
124.31
88.88
39.86%
Yards
1042.91
694.41
50.19%
TDs
6.52
4.56
43.07%
PPR Points
216.83
148.42
46.10%
Standard Points
143.40
96.78
48.18%
Again, no need to reinvent the wheel here: the better receivers in real life are also the better receivers
in Fantasy. Great. You’ve read this far and still no fancy table or graphic that is going to help you
improve as a Fantasy owner. As with drafting, good things come to those who wait.
The high-end receivers are as productive as ever … or are they? One would assume that with the rising
passing numbers that the average WR1 is producing at a higher level, right? Not so fast.
2010
WR1
WR2
Change
2011
WR1
WR2
Change
2012
WR1
WR2
Change
2013
WR1
WR2
Change
2014
WR1
WR2
Change
Catches
Targets
Yards
TDs
PPR Points
Standard Points
69.97
48.28
44.92%
121.03
82.91
45.99%
975.81
645.22
51.24%
7.09
4.31
64.49%
210.11
138.68
51.51%
140.14
90.40
55.03%
68.59
47.19
45.36%
118.47
84.41
40.36%
1013.09
677.91
49.44%
6.34
4.47
41.96%
207.97
141.79
46.67%
139.37
94.60
47.32%
75.72
51.53
46.94%
128.19
88.50
44.84%
1067.78
692.63
54.16%
6.25
5.13
21.95%
220.00
151.54
45.17%
144.28
100.01
44.26%
78.25
50.94
53.62%
131.31
88.81
47.85%
1090.00
694.16
57.03%
5.97
4.53
31.72%
223.06
147.54
51.19%
144.81
96.60
49.90%
74.59
60.25
23.81%
122.53
99.78
22.80%
1067.84
762.13
40.11%
6.94
4.34
59.71%
223.00
162.53
37.21%
148.41
102.28
45.11%
As you can see, last season actually was NOT the season of the WR1 … 2013 was. In reality, 2014 was the
season of the WR2, as the gap in catches/targets/yards/PPR points/Standard Points was the lowest of
the last five seasons. Odd, especially when you consider that the gap in touchdowns was the highest
since 2010.
The production of WR1’s isn’t trending in the wrong direction, but it does appear to have stabilized over
the last three seasons despite the increased efficiency of the passing game. While the average WR1 has
looked roughly the same since 2012, the average WR2 is gaining steam, thus giving these players a
greater ceiling than most assume when you talk about the golden era of the passing game.
WR2 Yards
WR2 Targets
800
100
750
95
700
90
650
85
600
550
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
This chart indicates that with the upward trending pass games, WR2’s are actually the ones who should
be rising up draft boards more so than WR1’s. Want to know why I love me some Victor Cruz or Andre
Johnson this season? Wonder no further.
Schedule Quirk
How many times have you heard: “football players are creature of habit”?
Why limit it to football players? We all like routine and perform better when we know are comfortable.
In fact, I delayed writing this article by a day because I didn’t have my peanut butter and banana
sandwich last night, a pre-research favorite. Having said that, what happens when opponents are
equally comfortable? That’s right, we are talking divisional play.
In theory, the offense knows the defense just as well as the defense knows the offense in these biannual matchups. Sports, both Fantasy and reality, are a game of inches, and while the differential in
divisional and non-divisional statistics isn’t great, it could well be the difference between winning and
losing a DFS slate or serve as a tie-breaker for annual owners stuck in a tough spot. Let’s start with the
running backs that scored at least 150 Standard ESPN Fantasy Points and take a look at their production
when it comes to yards per carry and Fantasy points per touch.
2013
Player
Jamaal Charles
LeSean McCoy
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Knowshon Moreno
Eddie Lacy
Adrian Peterson
Chris Johnson
DeMarco Murray
Fred Jackson
Ryan Mathews
Reggie Bush
Frank Gore
Alfred Morris
Le'Veon Bell
Joique Bell
Zac Stacy
AVERAGE
Divisional
Yds/Carry
4.9
4.1
4.8
3.8
2.9
4.1
4.9
4.1
4.3
5.0
4.5
5.3
4.4
3.9
3.9
4.1
3.3
4.25
Pts/Touch
1.29
0.66
0.74
0.69
0.53
0.60
0.71
0.60
0.67
0.79
0.66
0.83
0.57
0.65
0.61
0.79
0.39
0.69
Non-Divisional
Yds/Carry
5.0
6.4
4.8
4.4
5.0
4.2
3.7
3.7
5.7
3.9
4.3
3.9
3.9
5.0
3.3
3.8
4.1
4.42
Pts/Touch
0.80
0.84
0.73
1.14
0.92
0.70
0.54
0.85
0.82
1.18
0.56
0.59
0.65
0.64
0.60
0.75
0.66
0.76
There are some trends worth noting here and they continued into 2014.
% Change from NonDivisional to Divisional
Yds/Carry
2.04%
56.10%
0.00%
15.79%
72.41%
2.44%
-24.49%
-9.76%
32.56%
-22.00%
-4.44%
-26.42%
-11.36%
28.21%
-15.38%
-7.32%
25.15%
3.91%
Pts/Touch
-37.98%
27.27%
-1.35%
65.22%
73.58%
16.67%
-23.94%
41.67%
22.39%
49.37%
-15.15%
-28.92%
14.04%
-1.54%
-1.64%
-5.06%
69.23%
10.10%
2014
Player
DeMarco Murray
Le'Veon Bell
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Arian Foster
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Justin Forsett
Lamar Miller
Jeremy Hill
C.J. Anderson
Alfred Morris
LeSean McCoy
Joique Bell
Mark Ingram
AVERAGE
Divisional
Yds/Carrry Pts/Touch
4.5
0.7
5.1
0.87
4.7
0.75
3.8
0.51
5.2
0.91
4.4
0.82
4.1
0.65
5.7
0.63
5.6
0.74
4.8
0.63
5
0.86
3.9
0.59
4.8
0.59
4.1
0.68
3.7
0.66
4.63
0.71
Non-Divisional
Yds/Carry
4.8
4.5
4.5
4
4.5
4.8
5.6
5.3
4.8
5.22
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.7
4.6
4.59
Pts/Touch
0.66
0.72
0.9
0.74
0.7
0.81
1.02
0.77
0.76
0.83
0.81
0.62
0.68
0.62
0.57
0.75
Yds/Carry Pts/Touch
6.67%
-5.71%
-11.76%
-17.24%
-4.26%
20.00%
5.26%
45.10%
-13.46%
-23.08%
9.09%
-1.22%
36.59%
56.92%
-7.02%
22.22%
-14.29%
2.70%
8.75%
31.75%
-10.00%
-5.81%
7.69%
5.08%
-18.75%
15.25%
-9.76%
-8.82%
24.32%
-13.64%
-0.69%
5.85%
It should be noted that seven of the Top 10 Fantasy backs in 2013 and six of the Top 10 in 2014
produced at a more efficient rate against non-divisional opponents. In fact, six of the seven in 2013 and
five of the six in 2014 saw at least a 20 percent bump in per touch production, a very significant spike
that should be taken advantage of when spending top dollar in a Daily Fantasy format.
2013-2014
Two-year average
Divisional
Yds/Carry
4.43
Pts/touch
0.70
Non-Divisional
Yds/Carry
4.50
Pts/touch
0.76
Yds/Carry
1.66%
Pts/touch
8.09%
The two-year differential may not seem overwhelming, but ask @DrewDinkmeyer if every single
advantage you can get matters: it does. Furthermore, if you subtract Jamaal Charles’ historic
performance against the Raiders (215 yards and five touchdowns) in 2013 from the equation, you’re
looking at a 9.86 percent increase in per touch production for non-divisional games. If you subtract that
season from Charles as a whole, the difference jumps to 10.91 percent. It appears that there are only so
many ways to call a run play, thus the familiarity that comes with facing a divisional opponent favors the
defense. If that is in fact a reasonable assumption, then the elite quarterbacks should thrive when facing
a team they see twice annually. Here is a look at how successful quarterbacks (minimum 260 Fantasy
points) have fared.
2013
Player
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Andy Dalton
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
AVERAGE
Divisional
Yds/Att
9.15
8.36
6.76
6.71
5.57
8.17
7.36
7.44
Pts/play
0.75
0.62
0.58
0.50
0.38
0.56
0.52
0.56
Non-Divisional
Yds/Att
7.90
7.71
7.38
6.70
8.59
8.27
7.32
7.70
Pts/play
0.65
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.62
0.61
0.41
0.57
Yds/Att
-13.66%
-7.78%
9.17%
-0.15%
54.22%
1.22%
-0.54%
3.44%
Pts/play
-13.33%
-3.23%
-1.72%
6.00%
63.16%
8.93%
-21.15%
2.05%
The statistics were not overwhelming in 2013, but as the efficiency of the pass game continues to
increase, so too does the signal callers numbers against divisional foes.
2014
Player
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Ryan Tannehill
Eli Manning
AVERAGE
Divisional
Yds/Att
9.13
8.41
9.41
7.92
8.00
6.85
7.84
6.57
6.35
7.73
7.82
Pts/play
0.96
0.66
0.73
0.63
0.57
0.38
0.52
0.51
0.39
0.63
0.60
Non-Divisional
Yds/Att
8.14
7.39
6.56
7.91
8.23
7.96
7.38
7.35
7.19
7.11
7.52
Pts/play
0.61
0.57
0.58
0.56
0.55
0.63
0.51
0.55
0.57
0.46
0.56
Yds/Att
-10.84%
-12.13%
-30.29%
-0.13%
2.88%
16.20%
-5.87%
11.87%
13.23%
-8.02%
-3.82%
Pts/play
-36.46%
-13.64%
-20.55%
-11.11%
-3.51%
65.79%
-1.92%
7.84%
46.15%
-26.98%
-6.52%
As you can see, the disparity is minimal, but, as we expected, the best quarterbacks in the game see
their Fantasy stock improve when facing a divisional opponent. Take it a step further and you’ll notice
that the best of the best benefit the most. Over the last two seasons, nine of the 10 quarterbacks that
finished the season with at least 280 Fantasy points were more efficient within their division while six of
the 10 quarterbacks that scored 260-290 points were actually better when facing a relatively unfamiliar
opponent. This difference makes sense given the cerebral nature of the position: quarterbacks who
succeed at an elite level are the same ones that can recognize a similar coverage scheme and adjust
accordingly.
2013-2014
Two-year average
Divisional
Yds/Att
7.66
Pts/play
0.58
Non-Divisional
Yds/Att
7.59
Pts/play
0.56
Yds/Att
-0.92%
Pts/play
-3.13%
Final Conclusion
If you’re looking for a high-priced running back to tie your DFS wagon to, it would be wise to avoid
divisional matchups. Conversely, the expensive quarterbacks routinely pick apart defenses that they
recognize, thus making the elite options even stronger plays the six times per season that they face a
divisional opponent.
Stat Tracker: Learning From 2014
Learn from the past and improve: a simple concept that is obviously not only limited to our Fantasy
world. We have all the same data at our fingertips, but it is the most diligent of people who make the
best use of it and therefore find consistent success.
In Fantasy Football, we naturally look at a trio of statistics (yardage, touchdowns, and attempts) from
the year prior and attempt to interpret what they mean moving forward. Those three categories help us
determine what players are piling up numbers and getting plenty of opportunities, the ideal
combination. The question: how do they rank in importance? To determine the answer to that question,
I took the Top 10 finishers in each category over the last five seasons and charted where they ranked
(minimum of 10 games played) within their position the following season.
*When viewing this data, keep in mind that a perfect ranking would be 5.5, thus symbolizing that the Top 10 players in a certain statistic were
also the Top 10 scoring players in a standard Fantasy league. Also, all of the data and scoring numbers are based on Standard scoring leagues.
Quarterbacks
Signal callers typically lead most leagues in total Fantasy points, making it a crucial position to project
correctly. Over the last five seasons, quarterbacks who ranked among the Top 10 in touchdown tosses
the previous season followed it up with a higher ranking campaign (average ranking of 9.02) than those
who ranked in the Top 10 in yardage (9.30) or total number of pass attempts (10.56). This is obviously
not a great difference, but it is worth noting that in 2011, the difference between the 9th and 10th
scoring quarterbacks was nearly one point per week, something that could determine a matchup or two
throughout the season. You’ll also notice that all three statistics are trending in the same direction and
essentially finished as a wash in 2013. That said, the quarterbacks ranking inside the Top 10 have
finished the following season consistently ahead of those excelling in yardage or pass attempts, even if
by just a little bit.
QB Average Ranks
14
13
12
11
Yardage
10
Touchdowns
9
Attempts
8
7
6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Takeaway: When deciding between two quarterbacks that you have ranked side-by-side, give the slight
edge to the player who threw for more touchdowns in 2014, not the player who attempted more passes
or piled up more yardage. Situations in which this could occur in a 2015 draft: Eli Manning over Matt
Ryan or Ryan Tannehill over Matthew Stafford.
Running Backs
No matter how successful the passing game gets, the need for elite running backs always seems to drive
the first two rounds and 2015 probably won’t be much different given the lack of quality depth at the
position. In contrast to quarterbacks, the highest ranking running backs were the ones that finished in
the Top 10 in rushing attempts (average ranking of 11.93). In fact, while touchdowns were the driving
factor for tie-breaking amongst quarterbacks, it was a distant third (15.49) for running backs with
yardage gained on the ground also proving to be significantly more predictive (12.21). For reference, the
difference between the 12th highest scoring back (LeSean McCoy) and the 16th (Frank Gore) was 25.8
points, or 17.2 percent, last season. That’s the type of difference that determines a league champion
and you can make the correct call by simply electing to go with the higher volume player when debating
between two players as opposed to chasing touchdowns. You’ll notice that the running backs who
finished the previous season with a Top 10 workload have been very consistent over the past five years
in their rank the following season.
RB Average Ranks
20
18
16
14
Yardage
12
Touchdowns
10
Rush Attempts
8
6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Takeaway: Touches drive everything when it comes to running backs. How often do we see a “no-name”
RB take advantage of an increase in involvement and become a Fantasy difference maker? Target
previous touches and the Fantasy numbers will follow; don’t fall in love with the sexy yardage or
touchdown totals, they fluctuate more on an annual basis. Paying for consistency and stability is the way
to go. Situations in which this could occur in a 2015 draft: Justin Forsett over Jeremy Hill or Marshawn
Lynch over Matt Forte.
Wide Receivers
Like point guards in basketball or starting pitchers in baseball, we are in a golden age of wide receivers in
football. This is likely has to do with the rule changes, but the influx of young superstars certainly
doesn’t hurt either. Over the last five seasons, it has been the pass catchers that pile up yardage
(average ranking of 18.50) that perform at the highest level the next season. You’ll notice that as the
rules have shifted to favor the passing game, touchdowns (average ranking of 19.83) have become a red
herring of sorts. Yes, they are nice to have, but they’ve proven to be as unstable as any statistic from
year-to-year and even the elite receivers are in danger (Calvin Johnson finished 2010, 2011, and 2013 as
a top 5 touchdown scorer but finished the 2012 in a tie for 30th). The target (average ranking of 21.75)
count is a little more predictable, but that doesn’t mean safety for Fantasy owners. With teams going to
four and five receiver sets, a players ability to produce when he gets the ball has proven more important
than the volume in which he is targeted, as is evident by the three year stretch of a considerable better
ranking for those finishing in the Top 10 in yardage over those who finish in the Top 10 in targets.
WR Average Ranks
35
30
25
Yardage
Touchdowns
20
Targets
15
10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Takeaway: The difference in ranking would have reflected an even greater advantage to chasing yardage
had it not been for the disappointing effort from Pierre Garcon last season, as only he and Andre Johnson
produced Top 10 yardage totals in 2013 and failed to finish 2014 as a Top 21 receiver. Situations in which
this could occur in a 2015 draft: Demaryius Thomas over Dez Bryant or Mike Evans over Kelvin Benjamin.
Elite Quarterback Impact
Put them in whatever order you’d like, but we have a better idea of who will finish among the elite
Fantasy quarterbacks than any other position. Like the Billboard Top 40, the same names populate the
charts every year; it’s just a matter of who occupies which spot. We live in a quarterback dominated
NFL, so the following remark is one that seems like more of an assumption than a question.
“If we can assume that a quarterback is going to put up monster numbers, stacking members of his
offense is surly the best strategy … right?”
Not so fast. While the quarterbacks that are the best Fantasy options tend to lead the most efficient
offenses in the NFL, that does NOT mean that you should reach on their skill position players. Over the
last five seasons, the top wide receiver on an offense with a Top 5 quarterback has finished as the 16th
most productive Fantasy receiver (standard scoring) in the NFL. That’s not a bad rating, but it also means
that the top receiver with an elite quarterback is mathematically unlikely to finish as a WR1: I’m looking
at you T.Y. Hilton and you Marques Colston/Brandin Cooks.
With the explosion of athletic quarterbacks, the lack of correlation between Fantasy production from
Top 5 QB and his top receiver isn’t only continuing, it’s getting stronger. Since 2012, the average WR1
for a Top 5 quarterback has finished as the 19th best receiver. In fact, we’ve seen just four Top 10
receiver seasons turned in over that stretch from such receivers, equaling the number we had in 2011
alone. As mentioned, the disappointing numbers have been magnified by elite quarterbacks that total at
least 300 yards with their legs. Since 2010, the WR1 for a Top 5 quarterback that is a threat to run has
finished as the 22nd most productive receiver, barely making him a WR2 despite playing for a statistically
top notch quarterback: sorry Kelvin Benjamin.
“Well, if the WR1’s on elite offenses aren’t going to lead your Fantasy team, then it’d be wise to target
WR2’s in those offenses, no?”
While I do think that the second best receiver in an offense is often the better value than the WR1 in the
same offense, this train of thought isn’t exactly the percentage play either. Over the last five seasons,
the average WR2 in offenses with a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback have finished just outside of the WR3
conversation (37th best Fantasy receiver). Still comfortable on waiting on your WR2 and banking on a
player like Andre Johnson? I’m not saying Johnson or other WR2’s that play with Top 5 quarterbacks
won’t produce, but blindly giving them a bump in your rankings because of the talent under center is a
mistake.
“If targeting the receivers that play alongside a top notch quarterback isn’t the way to go, the running
back must be the play as a result of defenses backing out of the box.”
It’s trending in that direction, but I still wouldn’t recommend making it a rule of thumb. The average
running back with a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback has finished as the 20th highest scorer at his position over
the last five seasons. Their average rank has improved in three consecutive seasons with a record four
Top 15 RB’s last season, but you’re still looking at an RB2 at best and that’s not exactly what you’re
targeting. Believe it or not, the average running back has finished slightly higher when playing alongside
a mobile quarterback over the last five seasons. Sorry Mark Ingram and C.J. Anderson, but these metrics
don’t work in your favor for 2015.
The takeaway here is simple: grab an elite quarterback and then don’t go out of your way to acquire
other pieces of elite offenses. Like your quarterback, you want your RB/WR to be the key cog in their
offense, something that isn’t the case if they play with an elite quarterback that is capable of beating
defenses in a variety of ways. It may seem like backwards logic, but we chase individual production and
not team production. Don’t overrate a member of an elite offense simply because he plays in an elite
offense.
Target Interceptions?
More good things and less bad things.
In Fantasy or reality, few statements are universally accepted, but I’d guess that you have no problem
with seven words above.
Well … I do.
Let me explain. I don’t have an issue with the statement as a whole; rather the interpretation that less of
a bad thing is always a good thing. That train of thought holds true for things like junk food (the less you
eat, the better your health) and Fantasy advice at other websites (the less you consume there, the more
time you have for us), but you shouldn’t be so quick to use that same logic when it comes to evaluating
quarterbacks. In fact, I’d argue that, to an extent, the opposite approach is worth consideration.
All Fantasy leagues score a bit differently, but every league I’ve ever been a part of subtracts points for
interceptions. Naturally, when evaluating signal callers, we look to minimize the negatives when
possible, thus making low interception quarterbacks more appealing. You can’t help it, it’s human
nature. But my stance is that a quarterback’s interception total is as much a sign of willingness to take
chances as anything, and with the big offensive play increasing your score much faster than a big
mistake takes away from it, it’s a statistic that you can embrace despite the negative point value.
Passing Fantasy Points
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Interceptions
Above is a scatter plot from 2010-2014 of Top 10 quarterbacks who threw no more than 13
interceptions and the Fantasy points they earned through the air in that season. As you can see, there
have been varying levels of success, but the average qualifying quarterback finished the season with
310.86 Fantasy points and 9.22 interceptions. Elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have
multiple seasons included in this set of data, but the historic 55-touchdown campaign from Peyton
Manning in 2013 is a bit of an outlier (green marker). If we admit that that season is unlikely to be
repeated and subtract it from our calculations, you’re left with an average of 293.93 Fantasy points and
9.22 picks (red marker) for the measured quarterbacks. Even if you keep that Manning season included,
the linear trend line shows increasing average Fantasy value as the interception increases.
Passing Fantasy Points
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
14
16
18
20
22
24
Interceptions
Here are the results for the same study but for Top 10 quarterbacks who completed at least 14 passes to
the wrong team in their elite season. As you’d expect, this trend line points in the opposite direction,
but not at a rapid enough pace to stop the average production (322.83 Fantasy points) from being
greater than that of the less risk-oriented passers from the first graph. Think about that: if you use the
numbers sans Manning 2013, interception heavy quarterbacks (17.32 interception average) have
averaged nearly 40 more Fantasy points per season despite losing 16 more points in a standard scoring
leagues via the INT over the last five seasons. Could you use an extra 2.5 points per week?
I’m not suggesting that you elevate the recklessness of Andy Dalton over the precision of Aaron Rodgers,
but you do need to think twice before downgrading a quarterback or breaking a ranking tie based on
interception totals/projections. This trend is only getting stronger, as we had one more Top 5
quarterback throw at least 15 interceptions last season than in the previous two combined.
Interceptions result in losses in real life, but they shouldn’t be avoided when building a Fantasy roster.
Know Your Numbers: 1-100
As Fantasy Football enthusiasts, what do we have without numbers? Trick question: nothing. They are
the basis of the hours of preparation and they for a solid four months out of the year, they single
handedly determine if we label a weekend a success or a failure. So yea, I guess you could say they are
important. Below are 100 true statistics, one for each number 1-100, that you need to know before
creating your cheat sheet.
1. Number of quarterbacks with two seasons of at least 600 drop backs and single digit interceptions
since 2010: Tom Brady
2. Ben Roethlisberger joins Mr. Brady as the only quarterbacks to pass for at least 25 touchdowns and
single digit interceptions twice in the last three seasons.
3. Number of 100 yard regular season games for Marques Colston since mid-November 2013. Percy
Harvin has played for three different teams since then.
4. Quarterbacks who averaged more drop backs per game than a struggling Jay Cutler in Marc
Trestman’s offense last year.
5. Number of games in which Arian Foster had a rushing touchdown. It is also the number of games in
which he recorded a receiving touchdown.
6. Interceptions thrown by Ben Roethlisberger in four games played without Le’Veon Bell since the stud
running back entered the league. He’s tossed five touchdowns in those games, a far cry from the 2.95to-1 touchdow-to- interception ratio that he has averaged with Bell by his side.
7. Number of games in which Dwayne Allen scored when being targeted multiple times … there were
only eight such games.
8. There were eight more receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards than running backs with 1,000
rushing yards in 2014.
9. Number of QB/WR tandems with a higher WR Rating (the QB Rating on passes thrown to a specific
receiver) than the Brady/Brandon LaFell connection.
10. Streak of regular season games with at least 100 total yards or a touchdown that Eddie Lacy will
enter the 2015 with. For the record, he accomplished both feats in six of those contests.
11. For the second time in three seasons, 11 quarterbacks threw for at least 4,000 yards.
12. aDOT of Coby Fleener, second highest by a tight end with at least 50 catches since he entered the
NFL.
13. Number of drops that Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson combined for (260 targets), one fewer than
league-leader Mohamed Sanu (97 targets).
14. Number of pass attempts per touchdown toss for Russell Wilson, a higher rate than Matt Ryan.
15. Jeremy Hill totaled 862 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in games in which he carried the
rock at least 15 times. Over the course of a 16 game season, that equates to a 1,971-rushing yard 16touchdown season.
16. In four consecutive seasons, a Top 3 Fantasy quarterback has thrown at least 16 interceptions.
17. Number of quarterbacks with at least 300 completions last year and not a one of them had more
rushing yards than Ryan Tannehill.
18. Joe Flacco’s drop in completions from 2013 to 2014, yet he threw eight more touchdowns.
19. Ryan Tannehill became the first quarterback since Cam Newton circa 2011 to average at least 19
rush yards per game and throw for 4,000 yards.
20. Tony Romo had seven games last season, more than Blake Bortles, with fewer than 20 completions.
21. In his 21 games with at least nine targets over the last three seasons, Julio Jones has totaled 2,463
yards and 15 touchdowns (a 1,877-yard and 12-touchdown pace over a 16 game season).
22. Torrey Smith had 11 touchdowns and 11 drops, the only player in the league with at least 10 of each
and the highest combined total (22) among receivers.
23. Since Week 11, Charles Johnson was the target of 23 percent of Teddy Bridgewater’s passes.
24. Julius Thomas has scored 24 touchdowns on 108 catches over the last two years. At his 2014 pace,
Blake Bortles would need to complete 136 more passes than he attempted to throw 24 touchdown
passes in 2015.
25. Percentage of Tony Romo’s “deep” pass attempts that resulted in six points. In fact, half of his
“deep” completions ended in the endzone. Both of those rates were the best in the NFL.
26. Average age of a Top 10 Standard Fantasy running back in 2014.
27. Ryan Tannehill’s age at the beginning of the 2015 season, his fourth in the NFL. Like Aaron Rodgers,
Tannehill’s completion percentage has improved in back-to-back seasons to start his career. The good
news there is that Rodgers set career-highs in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and
touchdown-to-interception ratio in year four.
28. Golden Tate caught 28 more passes than Calvin Johnson, but he scored one fewer touchdown.
29. Percent of Keenan Allen’s yards last season that came in a two game stretch.
30. Rank of the Texans in pass attempts. Andre Johnson, the only wide receiver with at least 140 targets
in each of the last three seasons, left town for a Colts team that led the league in pass attempts (176
more than Houston in 2014).
31. Justin Forsett had 31 fewer carries than Matt Forte last season but finished with 16 more totes of at
least 20 yards.
32. DeSean Jackson’s average yardage total last season in games that he failed to record a 40 yard
reception.
33. Jamaal Charles has never had a season (minimum 100 carries) in which fewer than 33 percent of his
rush yards were gained on runs of at least 15 yards.
34. Age of Eli Manning. He’s coming off of his best season in terms of completion percentage of his
career and brother Peyton had the best completion percentage season of his career at age 34. Oh yea,
and Odell Beckham Jr. is entering this season healthy, that doesn’t hurt either.
35. In the majority of games in his rookie season, Sammy Watkins failed to eclipse 35 yards.
36. Number of drop backs per game by Aaron Rodgers. Alex Smith and Cam Newton both were among
the quarterbacks that averaged more last season.
37. Catches by Cole Beasley, most by a wide receiver without a drop in 2014.
38. The Top 3 scoring Fantasy quarterbacks all totaled at least 38 points with their legs. We had zero
Top 3 quarterbacks do that in the previous two seasons.
39. Number of running backs and receivers that scored more standard Fantasy points than Brandon
LaFell last season … and he wasn’t targeted a single time until Week 3.
40. Percentage increase in the number of quarterbacks that totaled at least 25 touchdown passes in
2014 than in 2013.
41. Drew Brees’ edge in completions over the next closest quarterback (Matt Ryan). It was the second
time in four seasons in which he led the NFL by at least 41 completions.
42. Percentage of Bengal receiver touchdowns scored by drops leader Mohamed Sanu.
43. Percentage of WR’s that scored at least 10 touchdowns in a season in which they were targeted 125
times.
44. Best yardage game for Vernon Davis in 2014. He averaged 44 yards per game for his career prior to
last year.
45. Percentage of 2014 receiving touchdowns that the Saints will be without entering the 2015 season.
46. Deep completion percentage of Russell Wilson, a higher success rate than Peyton Manning, Ben
Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford to name a few.
47. Yards per game for Torrey Smith, a new career-low. He now plays for an offense that threw 67 more
passes than his former employer did last season.
48. Fantasy points scored by Michael Crabtree through Week 6 last season, a total that sandwiched him
between Calvin Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders.
49. Catches behind the line of scrimmage by Matt Forte with Marc Trestman calling the shots. If we
project that total for Justin Forsett, his season reception total jumps by 50 percent.
50. Percentage of Andrew Luck’s touchdown passes that went to either Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen
when both were active.
51. There are 10 tight ends who have caught at least 51 passes in each of the past two seasons and only
two of them are averaging at least 12.5 yards per catch over that stretch: Fleener and Jared Cook.
52. Touchdown passes by Andy Dalton over the last two seasons, one more than Matthew Stafford
despite 169 fewer attempts. BONUS: DeMarco Murray is the only running back with 1,000 rushing yards
and more than 52 catches in each of the last two seasons.
53. League-high number of “unaimed” passes thrown by Derek Carr.
54. Career touchdowns by Rob Gronkowski in 65 games. He hasn’t gone more than two consecutive
games without a score since October 2011.
55. Standard points scored by Roy Helu as a receiver despite playing in only 13 games and only 39.7
percent of the Redskins snaps in those games. Those 55 points are six more than a running back in Fred
Jackson who had more receptions at the running back position than all but two players.
56. Rush attempts by Blake Bortles, tied for the eighth most among quarterbacks. His 7.46 yards per
carry was the most by a QB who ran for at least 200 yards since Mike Vick in 2011.
57. Number of 20-plus yard completions for Philip Rivers in 2014. He has reached that total in back-toback seasons, joining Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to do so.
58. DeMarco Murray had 58 more yards after the catch than he had total receiving yards in 2014. Not a
bad trend as he enters a Philadelphia system that saw LeSean McCoy record the lowest aDOT among
RB’s who played all 16 games last year.
59. Demaryius Thomas’ rank in catch percentage among receivers who played at least 25 percent of
offensive snaps. If he finished 25th and maintained his per catch production, he finishes 2014 as the
number one PPR receiver.
60. Percentage of games by Mike Evans that resulted in over 20 or under 10 PPR points last season.
61. Kenny Stills finished last season by exceeding 61 receiving yards in five of six games. He had five
such games in his previous 20 contests.
62. Targets in the second half for Mychal Rivera, third most among tight ends and more than Dez Bryant
over that stretch.
63. Number of “catchable” passes thrown to Jermaine Gresham: he caught 62 of them. That is the
second highest season catch percentage for any qualified tight end since Gresham entered the league in
2010.
64. Peyton Manning will enter 2015 looking for his 13th consecutive season with a completion
percentage over 64 percent after failing to reach that plateau in each of his first four seasons. Matt
Ryan’s career completion percentage is 64 percent and after failing to reach that number in his first four
seasons, he has topped it in three straight.
65. Cumulative number of interceptions thrown by the last five top scoring Fantasy quarterbacks in the
season in which they led the league in Fantasy points.
66. Career interceptions thrown by Andy Dalton. Aaron Rodgers has attempted 64.6 percent more
passes and has thrown seven fewer picks.
67. Percentage of Martavius Bryant’s receiving yards that came on passes thrown at least 20 yards
down field.
68. Number of passes thrown in Vincent Jackson’s direction that fell incomplete. For reference, Sammy
Watkins, Mike Wallace, and Jordan Matthews all caught fewer than 68 passes.
69. Percent of starts last season that Aaron Rodgers threw multiple touchdowns without an
interception in a victory.
70. Percent of Top 10 Standard Fantasy running backs with at least 50 targets in the pass game.
71. Number of PPR points totaled by Brian Quick in his first four games last season, more than Dez
Bryant or Calvin Johnson.
72. Red zone completion percentage for Teddy Bridgewater. He gains a receiver in Mike Wallace that
caught more red zone touchdowns last season (nine) than he did in the previous three seasons
combined.
73. Over the last five seasons, only three Top 10 receivers have caught at least 73 percent of passes …
two of them played for the Green Bay Packers.
74. Robert Griffin III’s completion percentage on “aimed” passes last season, second to only Brees
among quarterbacks who took at least 25 percent of snaps in 2014 and tied for the third highest
percentage over the last five seasons.
75. For the second time in the last three seasons, Philip Rivers finished with less than 300 yards in 75
percent of his starts.
76. Ben Roethlisberger is the only player with at least 76 pass attempts of at least 20 yards down the
field in each of the last two seasons.
77. Percentage of Andrew Luck’s career regular season games with at least 370 pass yards that came
last season.
78. Dropped passes by the 49ers with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback over the last three seasons. To
put that another way, one of every 13.96 attempts is being dropped and 17.8 percent of his
incompletions have been the pass-catchers fault.
79. Number of catches against the AFC over the last three seasons for Brandon Marshall. He has scored
once every 9.9 catches in those games, a considerable improvement over his one score per 15.4 catches
versus the NFC over that stretch.
80. Number of tackles missed when attempting to bring down Marshawn Lynch in 2014. That’s 19 more
than second place DeMarco Murray … and he had 111 more carries than Lynch. Beast Mode.
81. Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jarvis Landry all had at least 81 catches without multiple
drops. Over the previous six seasons only three receivers had even 50 catches without multiple drops.
82. Rushing yards averaged by Alfred Morris over his career, seven more than LeSean McCoy.
83. Number of carries it took Carlos Hyde to convince San Francisco that he is worthy of the lead back
role. He finished his rookie season as the eighth most elusive back that had at least 10 carries.
84. Catches by Greg Olsen last season, a career-high that resulted in his first 1,000 yard season. It was
his fourth consecutive year with a rise in receptions, targets, and first downs.
85. There were 14 receivers that caught at least 85 passes and they averaged 143 targets. Jarvis Landry
finished with 84 catches on only 104 targets.
86. Number of “deep” targets by receivers that finished 2014 with the Buccaneers. They are willing to
take chances, and now they have promise at the quarterback position.
87. Advantage in rushing attempts that Russell Wilson holds over Andrew Luck since the beginning of
2013. Luck is the only other quarterback with at least 60 rushing attempts in each of the last two
seasons.
88. Number of receptions for Dez Bryant, the third highest standard scoring receiver. In six of the last
seven seasons, we’ve had a Top 3 Fantasy WR catch fewer than 90 passes.
89. Every season he has spent with Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas has averaged at least 89
receiving yards per game. That matches the total number of such seasons that Marvin Harrison had with
Manning and is three times as many seasons as Reggie Wayne produced.
90. Average yards for Joique Bell in games that he was on the field for at least 60 percent of the Lions
offensive snaps.
91. Mychal Rivera’s target count, more than Torrey Smith. He hauled in 58 of those passes, more
catches than DeSean Jackson had last season. BONUS: The number of PPR points DeAndre Hopkins has
scored against the Titans over the last two years.
92. Catch percentage by DeMarco Murray, highest among running backs with at least 45 targets. The
Eagles targeted RB’s 10 more times than the Cowboys did last season.
93. Number of passes thrown in the pre-Odell Beckham Jr. by Eli Manning last year. He actually
averaged 24.2 percent more touchdowns per completion in those games than in the 12 played with OBJ.
94. Receiving yards per game for Julio Jones over the last three seasons.
95. Yards per game for Rashad Jennings when he totaled at least 10 carries.
96. More pass attempts by Andrew Luck over Aaron Rodgers,the second highest scoring quarterback, in
2014.
97. Average number of catches for a Top 10 Standard Fantasy receiver in 2014.
98. Touch advantage Mark Ingram had over Isaiah Crowell last season, yet he scored just one more
touchdown.
99. Matt Ryan’s quarterback rating over the last two seasons against the NFC South.
100. DeAndre Hopkins had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games to open last season
but had only three such games the rest of the way.
Staying Alive
It’s obviously early and we have plenty to learn about each team, but it doesn’t hurt to have a general
guideline to follow when filling out the Survivor Pool at your office. Here are my two locks, two value
plays, and one roll of the dice for each week of the upcoming season. For those looking to win a huge
pool, I made sure to not repeat any of my “roll of the dice” teams, thus allowing you to go completely
contrarian if you’d like. On the far right, you will see, at this moment in time, the season long survivor
pool that I would enter. Regardless of the format of your pool … you need to survive and advance this
season and I’m here to help you cash in!
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Locks
Dolphins
Packers
Saints
Ravens
Seahawks
Colts
Seahawks
Colts
Chiefs
Broncos
Seahawks
Packers
Patriots
Rams
Cardinals
Chiefs
Bengals
Steelers
Packers
Cowboys
Broncos
Colts
Ravens
Giants
Seahawks
Bengals
Patriots
Broncos
Seahawks
Packers
Chiefs
Saints
Packers
Colts
Values
Panthers
Jets
49ers
Rams
Texans
Giants
Cardinals
Chargers
Bills
Buccaneers
Lions
Texans
Falcons
Dolphins
Falcons
Jets
49ers
Saints
Bengals
Raiders
Eagles
Panthers
Falcons
Saints
Jaguars
Jets
Saints
Jets
Bills
Rams
Buccaneers
Texans
Panthers
Texans
Dice Roll
Soppe's Selection
Buccaneers
Packers
Vikings
Saints
Raiders
Colts
Bears
Seahawks
Falcons
Buccaneers
Jets
Jets
Redskins
Falcons
Texans
Cardinals
Rams
Steelers
Panthers
Cowboys
Jaguars
Broncos
Titans
Ravens
Saints
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Giants
Bills
Chargers
Chiefs
Lions
Panthers
Dating Game: Quarterbacks
At the end of the day, you want a Fantasy Football team that consists of players you believe in. Which
quarterback ranked in my Top 4 tiers fits what you desire in a Fantasy signal caller best?
Question 1:
Do you prefer a tall (at least 6’4”) quarterback?
Yes … go to Question 2
No … go to Question 3
Question 2:
Do you like a mobile quarterback (at least 100 rush yards)?
No ... go to Question 5
Question 3:
Do you prefer the safety (fewer than 10 interceptions) or risk-taking (at least 10 interceptions)?
Safety … go to Question 6
Risk … go to Question 7
Question 4:
Would you rather 600 pass attempts or 300 rushing yards?
600 pass attempts … go to Question 8
300 rush yards … go to Question 9
Question 5:
Do you prefer the safety (fewer than 10 interceptions) or risk-taking (at least 10 interceptions)?
Safety … go to Question 11
Risk … go to Question 12
Question 6:
Do you need a possession receiver (90+ receptions) on your roster?
Yes … your quarterback is Aaron Rodgers
Question 7:
Yes … your quarterback is Matthew Stafford
No … your quarterback is Drew Brees
Question 8:
Yes … your quarterback is Matt Ryan
No … your quarterback is Andrew Luck
Question 9:
Would you prefer a Top 13 rank in deep pass ATTEMPTS or deep pass ACCURACY?
Attempts … your quarterback is Colin Kaepernick
Accuracy … your quarterback is Ryan Tannehill
Question 10:
Does your quarterback have an elite receiver or an elite tight end?
Receiver … your quarterback is Tony Romo
Tight End … your quarterback is Russell Wilson
Question 11:
Which do you value high: career completion percentage or career touchdown-to-interception ratio?
Completion percentage … your quarterback is Ben Roethlisberger
Touchdown-to-interception ratio … your quarterback is Tom Brady
Question 12:
Do you prefer a proven stud WR1 or one with tremendous upside but a limited resume?
Proven … your quarterback is Peyton Manning
Upside … your quarterback is Eli Manning
Dating Game: Running Backs
At the end of the day, you want a Fantasy Football team that consists of players you believe in. Which
running back ranked in my Top 4 tiers for the upcoming season fits what you desire in a Fantasy RB?
Question 1:
Do you want the experience that comes with a running back that is at least 27 years old or the upside
that comes with a back younger than that (age when the 2015 season kicks off)?
27 or older … go to Question 2
26 or younger … go to Question 3
Question 2:
Do you want your running back to weigh less than 216 pounds or more?
Under 216 pounds … Question 4
216 pounds or heavier … Question 5
Question 3:
Do you like a running back that plays with a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback?
Yes … Question 6
No … Question 7
Question 4:
Do you want a running back that is playing in the same system that made him a Top 10 RB in each of the
past three seasons or one that enters his first season in a new and Fantasy friendly system?
Same system … go to Question 8
New system … go to Question 9
Question 5:
Do you want a running back with the same offensive playbook as last season or a new one?
Same … go to Question 10
New … go to Question 11
Question 6:
Should your running back record at least 15 percent of his touches via reception?
Question 7:
What is more important: games with at least 5 receptions or games with at least 20 carries?
5 receptions … go to Question 13
20 carries … go to Question 14
Question 8:
Which would you rather: an “elusive” back (yardage beyond what is blocked) or a “breakaway” back
(percentage of yards gained via 15 yard rush)?
Elusive … your running back is Marshawn Lynch
Breakaway … your running back is Jamaal Charles
Question 9:
5 receptions … your running back is Justin Forsett
20 carries … your running back is LeSean McCoy
Question 10:
Do you want the experienced RB (multiple seasons with at least 200 carries) or the fresh face (fewer
than multiple 200 carry seasons)?
Experience … your running back is Arian Foster
Fresh Face … go to Question 15
Question 11:
Double digit games with at least 5 receptions or double digit games with at least 20 carries?
Receptions … your running back Matt Forte
Carries … your running back is DeMarco Murray
Question 12:
Elusive … your running back is C.J. Anderson
Breakaway … your running back is Le’Veon Bell
Question 13:
Elusive … your running back is Giovani Bernard
Breakaway … go to Question 16
Question 14:
Do you want the experienced RB (multiple seasons with at least 200 carries) or the fresh face (fewer
than multiple 200 carry seasons)?
Experience … your running back is Alfred Morris
Fresh Face … go to Question 17
Question 15:
5 receptions … your running back is Joique Bell
20 carries … your running back is Jonathan Stewart
Question 16:
Does a running back with 0 missed games over the last two seasons appeal to you more than a running
back that has missed some time but averages more yards per touch over his career?
Yes … your running back is Lamar Miller
No … your running back is Andre Ellington
Question 17:
Do you like having a talented compliment in the run game alongside your running back or would you
prefer no such option?
Compliment … your running back is Jeremy Hill
No compliment … your running back is Latavius Murray
Question 18:
5 receptions … your running back is Eddie Lacy
20 carries … your running back is Mark Ingram
Dating Game: Wide Receivers
At the end of the day, you want a Fantasy Football team that consists of players you believe in. There
are 19 receivers ranked in my Top 2 tiers this season: which one fits your needs the best?
Question 1:
Would you prefer a wide receiver whose home games can be played indoors?
Question 2:
Do you support the notion that “height matters” at receiver (6’3” or taller) or not?
Question 3:
Do you support the notion that “height matters” at receiver (6’3” or taller) or not?
Question 4:
Do you prefer a receiver with more 100 yard games than games with touchdowns?
Yes … your receiver is Julio Jones
No … your receiver in Calvin Johnson
Question 5:
Is it more important to average at least 7 targets per game or to catch 70 percent of targets?
7 targets … go to Question 8
70 percent … your receiver is Brandon Cooks
Question 6:
Do you want youthful upside (25 or under) or veteran stability?
25 or under … go to Question 9
26 or older … go to Question 10
Question 7:
Should your receiver have more games with a touchdown than games with at least 100 yards?
Question 8:
Does your receiver play on an offense with an All-Pro running back?
Yes … your receiver is DeAndre Hopkins
No … your receiver is Dez Bryant
Question 9:
If you’ve got to deal with questionable quarterback play, which trait would you prefer your signal caller
have: rookie, generally hated, inaccurate, or injury prone?
Rookie … your receiver is Mike Evans
Generally hated … your receiver is Alshon Jeffery
Inaccurate … your receiver is Kelvin Benjamin
Injury prone … your receiver is Jordan Matthews
Question 10:
When dealing with average depth of target (aDOT), does your receiver run deep (aDOT over 12.0) or
shallow routes?
Deep … go to Question 13
Shallow … go to Question 14
Question 11:
Which 16 game pace over the last two seasons is more appealing: over 11 touchdowns or over 104
catches?
11 touchdowns … your receiver is Randall Cobb
104 catches … go to Question 15
Question 12:
Do you want youthful upside (25 or under) or veteran stability?
25 or under … go to Question 16
26 or older … your receiver is Emmanuel Sanders
Question 13:
Which sounds better: no 100 catch seasons but all seasons over 1,000 yards or five 100-catch seasons
but coming off of a sub-1,000 yard season?
All 1,000 yard seasons … your receiver is A.J. Green
Five 100-catch seasons … your receiver is Brandon Marshall
Question 14:
Do you prefer a receiver with more 100 yard games than games with touchdowns?
Yes … your receiver is Demaryius Thomas
No … your receiver in Jordy Nelson
Question 15:
Should your receiver be the target of more passes or have a high catch percentage?
Targets … your receiver is Antonio Brown
Catch percentage … your receiver is Julian Edelman
Question 16:
Pick one: a considerably higher aDOT or a considerably more accurate quarterback?
aDOT … your receiver is Odell Beckham Jr.
Accurate quarterback … your receiver is Keenan Allen

Soppe Draft Kit 2015

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