supermarket market demand and impact analysis

Transcription

SUPERMARKET MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS, HARWOOD AVENUE NORTH AND ROSSLAND ROAD EAST, TOWN OF AJAX
June 5, 2014
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Supermarket Market Demand and Impact Analysis, Harwood Avenue North And Rossland Road East, Town Of Ajax
June 5, 2014
Mr. Richard Kennedy
Vice President & Partner
Belmont Equity Partners
1400 Cornwall Road, Suite 13
Oakville, Ontario L6J 7W5
Dear Richard:
RE: Supermarket Market Demand and Impact Analysis, Harwood Avenue North and Rossland
Road East, Town Of Ajax
urbanMetrics inc. is pleased to submit our report evaluating the market opportunity for a retail and service
commercial centre, anchored by a supermarket, at the south-east corner of Rossland Road East and
Harwood Avenue North. Our study has also evaluated whether there will be any detrimental impacts on
existing commercial centres in north Ajax.
Located on lands designated Employment Area, this study has been prepared in support of appeals to
the Regional Official Plan Amendment 128 (ROPA 128) and Ajax Official Plan Amendments 41 and 42,
as well as a Zoning By-Law Amendment (ZBA) application to permit the development as planned.
Our work plan has been determined based on discussions with the Town of Ajax who have requested a
“fulsome” retail market demand and impact analysis for the proposed supermarket, as well as the
determination of potential employment generated by the subject development.
Our analysis and conclusions have been based on the conduct of a telephone consumer survey of Trade
Area residents, an inventory of food store space in the defined Trade Area, licence plate surveys
conducted at two supermarket anchored centres located on Taunton Road, as well as population and
expenditures forecasts. In addition to evaluating the proposed supermarket, we have also conducted a
per capita space analysis for non-food store space and service space.
Based on the results of our analysis, it is our professional opinion that the development of a supermarket
anchored commercial centre on the subject lands, with a first full year of operation in 2016, can be
supported from a market demand perspective without impacting the planned function or viability of any
designated commercial areas in the Town of Ajax.
Supermarket Market Demand and Impact Analysis, Harwood Avenue North And Rossland Road East,
Town Of Ajax
Based on the potential tenant mix, the subject site would provide between 291 and 312 jobs. A portion of
these jobs would be “Prestige Employment” jobs, estimated at between 142 and 168 jobs, which converts
to between 37 and 44 jobs per hectare. Some of these jobs would be provided in second-storey
commercial space. The Prestige Employment jobs would meet the Town’s requirement of achieving 37
Prestige Employment jobs per net hectare.
The analyses and appendices in the attached report provide our detailed study findings and conclusions.
We appreciate the opportunity to conduct this assignment on your behalf.
Yours truly,
urbanMetrics inc.
Douglas R. Annand
Partner
Lynne L. Davidson
Partner
Town Of Ajax
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... i
1
2
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1
Background..................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Study Approach .............................................................................................................................. 2
1.3
Assumptions ................................................................................................................................... 4
Site and Access Evaluation ...................................................................................................... 6
2.1
Site Context .................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2
Surrounding Land Uses .................................................................................................................. 7
2.3
Site Accessibility ........................................................................................................................... 11
2.4
Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 12
3
Trade Area ................................................................................................................................ 13
4
Review of Retail Competition ................................................................................................. 15
5
6
7
8
4.1
Trade Area Food Store Retail (FSR) Space ................................................................................. 15
4.2
Local Zone – Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) and Services Space ............................................. 18
4.3
Proposed Developments .............................................................................................................. 20
Trade Area Population and Income........................................................................................ 23
5.1
Population ..................................................................................................................................... 23
5.2
Per Capita Income ........................................................................................................................ 25
Supermarket Analysis ............................................................................................................. 26
6.1
Trade Area Retail Expenditure Potential ...................................................................................... 26
6.2
Supermarket and Grocery Store Demand Analysis ..................................................................... 27
6.3
Supermarket and Grocery Store Impact Analysis ........................................................................ 32
Per Capita Space Analysis ...................................................................................................... 36
7.1
Warranted Additional Retail and Service Space in the Local Zone.............................................. 36
7.2
Subject Site Share ........................................................................................................................ 38
Employment Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 41
Appendix A – Licence Plate Survey .............................................................................................. 45
Appendix B – Local Zone Inventory .............................................................................................. 48
Appendix C: Telephone Survey ..................................................................................................... 50
Appendix D: Background Data and Definitions ........................................................................... 61
Town Of Ajax
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1: Site Location ............................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 2-2: Preliminary Site Plan ................................................................................................................. 7
Figure 2-3: Surrounding Land Uses .............................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2-4: 300-338 Rossland Road East – New Commercial Centre ......................................................... 9
Figure 2-5: Proposed Condominium Adjacent to 1 Rossland Road West – Dunburry Developments ...... 10
Figure 2-6: Regional Location and Access ................................................................................................ 12
Figure 3-1: Trade Area ................................................................................................................................ 14
Figure 4-1: Trade Area FSR Inventory (May 2014) ................................................................................... 16
Figure 4-2: Competitive Framework ........................................................................................................... 18
Figure 4-3: Summary of NFSR, Service & Vacant Commercial Space in the Local Zone (SQFT) ............ 19
Figure 4-4: Designated/Planned Commercial Space – Trade Area and Area ........................................... 21
Figure 5-1: Trade Area Population, 2006 to 2031 ...................................................................................... 23
Figure 5-2: Trade Area and Ajax Population............................................................................................... 24
Figure 5-3: Per Capita Income .................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 6-1: Trade Area Retail Expenditure Potential ................................................................................. 29
Figure 6-2: Supermarket and Grocery Store Analysis ................................................................................ 31
Figure 6-3: Supermarket and Grocery Store Impact Analysis ................................................................... 34
Figure 7-1: Warranted Additional Space, 2016 .......................................................................................... 39
Figure 7-2: Warranted Additional Space, 2031 ........................................................................................... 40
Figure 8-1: Permitted Uses in Prestige Employment Zone – Zoning By-Law 95-2003 ............................. 42
Figure 8-2: Square Feet Per Job Factors: ................................................................................................. 43
Figure 8-3: Scenario A – Employment Forecast ........................................................................................ 43
Figure 8-4: Scenario B – Employment Forecast ......................................................................................... 44
Figure 8-5: Scenario C – Employment Forecast ........................................................................................ 44
Town Of Ajax
Executive Summary urbanMetrics inc. has been retained by Belmont Equity Partners (“Belmont”) to prepare a Market Demand
and Impact Analysis for a proposed commercial development planned at the south-east corner of
Harwood Avenue North and Rossland Road in the Town of Ajax. An 118,591 ± square foot centre is
planned, anchored by a 49,576 square foot supermarket. The remaining space would include ancillary
retail and “Prestige Employment” service facilities, including second storey commercial space.
Located on designated employment lands, this study is required by the Town of Ajax to support Belmont’s
appeals to the Regional Official Plan Amendment 128 (ROPA 128) and Ajax Official Plan Amendments
41 and 42, as well as a Zoning By-Law Amendment (ZBA) application.
Our analysis has been based on research which has included a telephone survey of 400 Trade Area
residents, licence plate surveys conducted each at the Sobeys and Metro on Taunton Road in Ajax,
population forecasts, competitive review, and retail expenditure forecasts.
The key findings of the study are summarized below:

The subject site has a strategic location in the growing community of Ajax. The site has good
regional exposure with frontage on both Rossland Road and Harwood Avenue North.

A Trade Area has been delineated for the subject supermarket, comprising Ajax Planning Areas 1
to 4. This area is expected to capture
about 62.5% of the subject supermarket
sales volume. A Local Zone has also
been defined within the Trade Area,
which has been utilized for our space per
capita analysis for non-food store retail
(NFSR) and service space uses.

There are six existing supermarkets and a
grocery store in the Trade Area,
occupying a combined total of 319,200
square feet of space. There are no
supermarkets or grocery stores
located within 2 kilometres driving
distance of the subject site and only
one supermarket (Metro on Taunton Road) located east of Harwood Avenue where a
significant amount of future population growth is expected to occur.

Within the Local Zone/periphery, there is about 55,700 square feet of NFSR space, with the
majority in the pharmacy and personal care store category. A total of 182,800 square feet of
service space has also been inventoried in the Local Zone/periphery. Vacant retail and service
commercial space in the Local Zone has been estimated at 49,600 square feet, the majority of
which is located in a new professional office building at 300 Rossland Road East.
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Town Of Ajax

There are a number of designated commercial sites in the Trade Area that could include retail
and service space in the future. Based on our review of the various sites, in our opinion, none
are likely to include a supermarket. In the neighbouring communities of Pickering and Whitby,
additional supermarket space is planned which could influence expenditure patterns in the future.

The population of the Trade Area is estimated at 68,100 persons in 2013 and is forecast to grow
to about 76,600 persons by 2031. Based on development applications and the Ajax OPA 41
population yields by Planning Area for 2031, the majority of this growth is expected to occur in the
Local Zone and Planning Area 4, in close proximity to the subject site. The additional population
in the Trade Area will create demand for more supermarket space to meet the needs of local
residents.

Trade Area residents’ supermarket expenditures are projected to increase from $134.9 million in
2013 to $162.7 million by 2031, a net increase of $27.8 million. This growth will support
additional supermarket space.

Trade Area residents currently spend about $103.9 million in Trade Area supermarkets,
representing an average of 77% of their total supermarket expenditures. These expenditures are
forecast to increase to $130.4 million by 2031; a growth of $13.9 million.

In addition to the expenditures from Trade Area residents, in 2013 the seven existing
supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area also attracted an estimated $91.1 million in
sales from non-Trade Area residents. Therefore, inflow accounted for 46.7% of their total sales of
$195.0 million in that year. This translates into an average of some $611 in sales per square foot
for these facilities, with some stores performing below this average and others above. Overall,
the average for the seven stores evaluated is considered above typical industry levels for this
category.

With the addition of a supermarket on the subject site, we expect there will be some sales
transferred from the existing stores in the Trade Area to the new facilities. We estimate the
existing stores will experience an overall reduction of just under 3% in their sales in 2016 as
compared to 2013. This would reduce their average sales level from $611 to $593. This overall
sales reduction would not cause critical sales impact on the existing stores. Average sales levels
at the existing stores are expected to rebound in the short term and will exceed their base year
average by 2018.

The subject site is expect to include about 69,000 square feet of non-food store retail and service
space, with a focus on service space uses that are permitted in the Prestige Employment
designation. Based on our analysis, there would be sufficent market support for additional retail
and service space on the subect site to serve the growing population and employment base in the
area. The subject site would meet less than half of the forecast warranted space needs, with
future opportunities available at other locations in the Local Zone, including the lease out of
vacant space in 300-338 Rossland Road and 1 Rossland Road West. Other sites located
outside the Local Zone in Ajax could also meet a portion of the future needs identified in the Local
Zone.

Based on the potential tenant mix, the subject site would provide between 291 and 312 jobs. A
portion of these jobs would be “Prestige Employment” jobs, estimated at between 142 and 168
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jobs, which converts to between 37 and 44 jobs per hectare. Some of these jobs would be
provided in second-storey office space. The Prestige Employment jobs would meet the Town’s
requirement of achieving 37 Prestige Employment jobs per net hectare.
Based on these findings, it is our professional opinion that the proposed development can be supported
and would not adversely affect the economic viability of existing supermarkets and grocery stores in the
Trade Area or existing/designated commercial sites. Furthermore, it would contribute to Ajax’s
employment base, it will serve the immediate designated Employment Area, and it will also serve the
growing population in east Ajax which currently have limited food store shopping choices in their local
area.
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Town Of Ajax
1 Introduction urbanMetrics inc. has been retained by Belmont Equity Partners (“Belmont”) to prepare a Market Demand
and Impact Analysis for a proposed commercial development planned at the south-east corner of
Harwood Avenue North and Rossland Road East in the Town of Ajax. The proposed development would
include a total of 118,591± square feet gross leasable area (“GLA”), anchored by a 49,576± square foot
supermarket (excluding a mechanical mezzanine). The remaining space would include ancillary retail
and service facilities, including second-storey commercial space.
1.1 BACKGROUND This study is required in support of appeals to the Regional Official Plan Amendment 128 (ROPA 128)
and Ajax Official Plan Amendments 41 and 42, as well as a Zoning By-Law Amendment (ZBA)
application.

Regional Official Plan/ROPA 128 – The subject site is designated Employment Area in the
Durham Region Official Plan and is also designated Employment Area under the Durham Region
ROPA 128, which is under appeal. ROPA 128 defines a Major Retail Use as large-scale, retail
operations and commercial facilities, having a gross leasable area of 2,000 square metres or
greater (definition has been appealed). Major retail uses are not permitted in Employment Areas.
As a result, a Special Exception Policy would be required to permit a supermarket on the subject
site.

Ajax Official Plan - According to the Town of Ajax’s in-force Official Plan, the subject lands are
designated Prestige Employment and General Employment with an area along the easterly
property line designated Environmental Protection. The proposed supermarket and retail uses on
the subject lands are not permitted in these designations, however, certain service uses (i.e.
financial institutions, restaurants, personal service establishments) are permitted in the Prestige
Employment designation with a daycare permitted in both employment designations.
The Town’s adopted OPA 42 - Employment, which is under appeal for the subject lands and has
not been approved by the Region, designates the site Prestige Employment and Environmental
Protection with the subject lands also included within Area Specific Policy Section 6.18. Under
the Site Specific Policy 6.18, limited retail uses may be permitted subject to a number of criteria
including that the individual retail uses will be capped at a maximum size of 500 square metres, it
will serve a segment in the market place that is not adequately served in the Town, it will serve
the immediate designated Employment Area, is an integral component of the overall
development, and does not adversely impact the designated commercial sites. OPA 42 Site
Specific Policy 6.18 does not permit financial institutions, restaurants, personal service
establishments, service or repair shops, athletic clubs and private recreational facilities in
freestanding buildings. Therefore, modifications to OPA 41 (Residential Intensification), which is
also under appeal, and 42 (Employment) would be required to permit the proposed development.

ZBA - The site is zoned Prestige Employment Holding (PE(H)), Prestige Employment (PE), and
Agricultural (A) with a specific exception number 87 in the Ajax Comprehensive Zoning By-Law
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Town Of Ajax
95-2003. The Prestige Employment and Agricultural zones do not permit a retail store. The “PE”
zoning permits a range of service commercial uses including personal service shop, financial
institution, restaurant, medical clinic, offices, day care, dry cleaner, vet clinic, and a fitness centre.
A supermarket is not a permitted use. Therefore, a Zoning By-Law Amendment (ZBA) is required
to permit retail stores.
Our market demand and impact analysis has focused on the proposed supermarket anchor, in order to
examine the potential effects of expanding the range of permitted uses on the site. This study has
estimated the market demand that would be available for the proposed supermarket anchor. We have
also assessed any sales impacts on the viability and planned function of other nearby commercial
developments in Ajax, and particularly those anchored by supermarkets. Expected employment
generated by the subject site and employment density has also been evaluated.
1.2 STUDY APPROACH Based on discussions with the Town, the following outlines the various work steps that we have
undertaken in order to evaluate the market demand and impact of the proposed supermarket:
1. Site and Access Evaluation – We have evaluated the suitability of the site for the proposed
supermarket anchor. This has included a general review of the subject site from a market
perspective in terms of its physical size, as well as it location, surrounding land uses, synergies
with existing and future employment type uses in the area, and accessibility characteristics.
2. Trade Area Delineation – A reasonable Trade Area from which market shares can be
determined for the proposed commercial development has been delineated. The Trade Area is
intended to reflect the geographic area from which the majority (typically over 70%) of permanent
resident customer support would be derived, with the remainder coming from employees working
in the area, pass-by traffic and other non-residents. The Trade Area has been defined based on
our review of a number of factors, including:






our assessment of the competitive environment;
the results of licence plate surveys that have been carried out at two supermarket anchored
centres along Taunton Road (see Appendix A);
our review of the site’s characteristics;
the type of project proposed;
travel times; and
any physical barriers.
The defined Trade Area forms the basis for the detailed competition, demographic and
expenditure analysis carried out in the following steps. A Local Zone has also been defined for
the purposes of our per capita space analysis for service type uses.
3. Competition Analysis – We have assessed the existing and proposed competition in the Trade
Area. An inventory of all food store retail (“FSR”) space has been conducted in the Trade Area,
including all supermarkets and specialty food stores. Any existing designated sites or proposals
for new competitive developments that could include a supermarket in the Trade Area and vicinity
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Town Of Ajax
have also identified, based on information from the Town of Ajax. In the defined Local Zone all
retail and service commercial uses have been inventoried, including vacant space.
4. Consumer Telephone Survey – A telephone consumer survey of some 400 Trade Area
residents has been undertaken to determine the existing expenditure patterns of Trade Area
residents and to establish the existing share of the market being captured by existing competitive
food stores, as well as food spending in major general merchandise stores.
The telephone survey was designed by urbanMetrics to include questions relating to expenditures
in supermarkets and grocery stores, convenience and specialty food stores, as well as general
merchandise stores. Additional questions were also included in order to profile customers by
selected characteristics (e.g. age, household size).
The results of the survey have informed our estimates of the current sales performance of
existing supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area, as well as to establish the degree of
outflow that is occurring from the Trade Area to supermarkets and other stores that could be
recaptured.
5. Determine Market Dimensions of the Trade Area – We have determined the expected future
market growth in the Trade Area. Population, per capita income and retail store expenditure data
by major store type have been determined. This data has been utilized as the basis for
determining the opportunity for additional warranted supermarket space in this market for specific
years to 2031. The year 2013 has been utilized as the base year in the analysis, with 2016
assumed to be the first full year of operation for the new supermarket on the subject site.
The current and future expenditures for Retail stores (including food and non-food store retail)
have been calculated for Trade Area residents based on published Statistics Canada Retail
Trade data, per capita income data for the Trade Area, real growth assumptions and an
expenditure regression formula developed by urbanMetrics from Statistics Canada’s Survey of
Household Spending.
6. Calculate Future Market Opportunity for Supermarket Space in the Trade Area – We have
determined the market support for the proposed supermarket and have provided a quantitative
estimate of sales impacts on competitive supermarkets in the Trade Area. A residual market
analysis has been undertaken in order to estimate the market opportunity for the proposed
supermarket. A residual analysis is a conservative approach to planning for additional space
requirements, as it recognizes existing stores in the Trade Area at existing sales volumes. This
methodology involved the following steps:
 The existing Trade Area shares of Trade Area residents’ supermarket expenditures were
estimated based on the results of the telephone consumer survey.
 Future market shares were forecast over the study period, based on an estimate of the
opportunity to recapture expenditures currently leaving the Trade Area.
 The available residual potential, representing the net additional expenditure growth in the
future, was calculated.
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Town Of Ajax


Inflow sales volumes from persons living outside the Trade Area were estimated.
The warranted supermarket space in the Trade Area was calculated based on expected
sales performance levels applied to the total sales volume available.
7. Evaluate Sales Impact of Proposed Supermarket – Based on estimates of the potential sales
levels for the subject supermarket, including inflow sales, we have determined the extent of sales
transfers that would be required from existing Trade Area supermarkets to support the proposed
store.
Based on the foregoing analysis, we established the potential sales impacts on existing
competitive supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area. Sales performance levels for
existing stores in the Trade Area were established based on the results of the in-home telephone
survey.
8. Per Capita Analysis – Using various per capita space ratios based on our review of existing
service levels in the Local Trade Area and available information for Ajax (based on the Town’s
Commercial Policy Review), and recognizing existing service levels, we have estimated the
demand for additional non-food retail and service uses proposed for the subject development.
9. Employment – We have estimated anticipated employment that would be generated on the
subject site based on proposed concept plan and employment factors provided by the Town.1
1.3 ASSUMPTIONS There are several underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings presented in
this report depend. Based on our considerable experience in the retail planning process, we recognize
and appreciate the problems associated with making broad and generalized assumptions about future
market conditions. Undoubtedly, deviations from historic and current trends will take place in the future.
However, basic assumptions are required to determine the extent of such deviations. The basic
assumptions used in the preparation of this report are summarized below.
1

During the forecast period discussed in this report, a reasonable degree of economic stability will
prevail in the Province of Ontario and Durham Region.

Estimates of future population growth in the Trade Area have been based on the Town of Ajax
Official Plan population targets by planning area, discussions with the Town, and our review of
residential development applications.

The official statistical sources utilized in our analysis (based largely on Statistics Canada
publications, which have been noted where utilized) are considered sufficiently accurate for the
purposes of our analysis;
ProvidedbyGaryMullerinanemaildatedApril17,2014asinitiallyforwardedtotheTownfromWatson&AssociatesEconomistsLtd.
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Town Of Ajax

All references to the Canadian dollar in this report, which deal with present and future periods,
reflect its 2013 value. It is recognized that fluctuations in the absolute value of the dollar will likely
occur during the period covered in this report. However, it is assumed that the relationship
between per capita income and expenditures will remain more or less constant during the period
analyzed. Since this report deals with future space additions, inflation must be excluded since it
has no influence on the physical space used in retail facilities. However, real growth (excluding
inflation) in expenditures has been recognized in our analysis.

The expected first full year of operation for the proposed development is assumed to be 2016.

All known competitive proposals and designations in the Trade Area, as provided by Ajax
planning staff, have been considering in our analysis.
Our research and analysis has been conducted in accordance with the terms of reference for this
assignment and our authorized scope of work. The findings and recommendations presented in this
report represent our best judgment based upon the information available to us as of the date of our
research. Although every effort has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of
the information provided in this report, urbanMetrics assumes no responsibility. We also assume no
responsibility for the consequences of anyone’s use of the information contained in this report. Should
major changes occur that influence the reliability of the assumptions noted above, the results of our
analysis may have to be revised, if necessary.
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Town Of Ajax
2 Site and Access Evaluation The following discussion summarizes our assessment of the suitability of the subject site for the proposed
retail/service commercial development, and in particular the supermarket. Our assessment includes an
evaluation of the subject site in terms of its location, size, configuration, and accessibility characteristics.
We have also considered the subject property in the context of surrounding land uses.
2.1 SITE CONTEXT The subject site is currently comprised of greenfield employment lands. As indicated in Figure 2-1, the
site is located in the northeastern portion of the Town of Ajax’s urban area, near the corner of Harwood
Avenue North and Rossland Road East. The site has an irregular shape, abutting the neighbouring Shell
gas station and Tim Horton’s restaurant, with frontage onto both Harwood Avenue North and Rossland
Road East. The site occupies a total of 19.44± acres, however, with conservation area lands and
landscaping easements and woodlot dedication excluded, the total developable area is 9.54± acres (3.86
hectares.
Figure 2-1: Site Location
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Town Of Ajax
Figure 2-2 illustrates the conceptual site plan for the proposed development, which is expected to include
approximately 118,591± square feet of retail and service commercial space, including a 49,576± square
foot supermarket anchor, 52,000 square feet of ancillary retail and service commercial space located on
the ground floor, and an additional 17,000 square feet of commercial space located on the second floor,
above ground-level commercial space.
Figure 2-2: Preliminary Site Plan
SOURCE: Turner Fleischer on behalf of Belmont Equity Partners (May 28, 2014). 2.2 SURROUNDING LAND USES There are a variety of existing and future land uses in proximity to the subject site, including residential,
employment, commercial and institutional.
As illustrated in Figure 2-3, the subject site abuts an existing Shell gas station and a Tim Horton’s
restaurant, located at the south-east corner of Harwood Avenue and Rossland Road. Other commercial
facilities in the vicinity of the site include 1 Rossland Road West, a plaza anchored by an IDA pharmacy
located on the south-west corner of Harwood Avenue and Rossland Road. In addition to the IDA
pharmacy, this plaza also features a specialty food store, a number of restaurant tenants, and second
floor professional office space situated above the ground floor retail space. Based on information from
the leasing agent for this property, there is about 5,800 square feet of vacant space on the second floor.
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Town Of Ajax
Figure 2-3: Surrounding Land Uses
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Town Of Ajax
On the north-west corner of Harwood Avenue and Rossland Road there is also a 7-11 gas station and a
7-11 convenience store. To the east of the site, on the north-east corner of Salem Road and Rossland
Road, is a new 150,000 square foot service commercial centre, anchored by a 79,261 square foot
professional office building and Goodlife Fitness (see Figure 2-4). The office building has about 20,000
square feet of vacant space and there is also some vacant space in the ground floor units. Based on the
site plan, about 9,343 square feet of additional service space can be accommodated on this site in the
future.
Figure 2-4: 300-338 Rossland Road East – New Commercial Centre
Photo Credit: urbanMetrics inc. / Air Photo – Google Earth
On the south-east corner of Salem Road and Rossland Road East is the Town of Ajax Fire headquarters
and Town of Ajax Operations buildings.
In addition to commercial uses to the west of Harwood Avenue, there are also low/medium density
residential neighbourhoods north and south of Rossland Road and west of Harwood Avenue. Directly to
the north of the subject site land uses include a Durham Region Pumping Station, a Secondary School
Campus (J. Clarke Richardson Collegiate and Notre Dame C.S.S.), the Pickering Christian School, and
two single family homes. To the south of the subject site are employment lands currently being marketed
by CB Richard Ellis. In 2008, the Town negotiated the Higgins Master Development Agreement for a new
prestige employment business park having six buildings with over 650,000 square feet of floor space on a
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Town Of Ajax
50 acre site located south of Rossland Avenue on Harwood Avenue North.2 One of these buildings (a
100,000 square foot industrial building) has been completed. Existing and future employment uses in this
business park would provide additional support for the commercial uses proposed on the subject site.
In addition to the commercial, employment and institutional land uses described above, in close proximity
to the site are low rise existing and developing residential neighbourhoods, which predominantly feature
attached single family houses, as well as townhouses. There are also a number of new housing projects
located primarily east of the subject site and other infill sites in north Ajax. The proposed supermarket
anchor would help to serve the existing community and the future demands of the growing population in
this local area. New residential developments in close proximity to the subject site include:



Mulberry Meadows (Ajax Audley Developments Limited) – is a new single detached housing project
by Sundial Homes currently under construction at the southwest corner of Rossland Road East and
Audley Drive in Ajax.
Castlefields – is a new detached and semi-detached housing project by Medallion Developments Inc.
currently under construction at the northwest corner of Rossland Road East and Audley Drive in Ajax.
Dunburry Developments Ltd. has submitted a complete application to permit a 15-storey
condominium building with 220 residential units just west of Harwood Avenue, on the south-side of
Rossland Road West adjacent to the 1 Rossland Road plaza (see Figure 2-5). Final approvals are
pending.
Figure 2-5: Proposed Condominium Adjacent to 1 Rossland Road West – Dunburry Developments
Photo Credit – Climans Green Liang Architects inc.
The uses proposed on the subject site would complement the existing and proposed land uses in the
vicinity of the subject site, and provide additional choices to serve the rapidly growing population in the
area as well as the expanding employment base.
2
TownofAjax,AnnualReport2008.
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Town Of Ajax
2.3 SITE ACCESSIBILITY The subject site is accessible from both Rossland Road, which provides east-west access, and Harwood
Avenue, which provides north-south access. The preliminary site plan proposes an all-turns entrance to
improve accessibility from Harwood Avenue. The proposed site plan also includes the addition of a
signalized intersection to enhance accessibility to the site from Rossland Road.
The range of retail and service commercial uses proposed on the subject site would primarily be intended
to serve the daily and weekly shopping needs of local residents living in the surrounding existing and
developing residential neighbourhoods in Ajax, as well as employees working in the area. The site also
has some regional exposure with frontage on Harwood Avenue, a Type C Arterial Road, which connects
to Taunton Road to the north, a major east-west corridor in Durham Region, as well as major routes to
the south, including Kingston Road. Harwood Avenue also intersects with Rossland Road, a Type B
Arterial Road, which also provides east-west access throughout Durham Region.
Rossland Road is expected to be connected to the future north-south West Durham Link connecting
Highways 407 and 401, although this interchange has been deferred (see Figure 2-6). The first phase of
the Highway 407 eastern extension from Brock Road in Pickering to Harmony Road in Oshawa is
expected to be completed within the next two years, with the phase two connection to Highway 35/115
opening by 2020. Westney Road and Salem Road, to the west and east of Harwood Road respectively,
each provide access to Highway 401 to the south. Westney Road and Salem Road would also
interchange with Highway 407 to the north, although these interchanges have been deferred pending
further study.
11
Town Of Ajax
Figure 2-6: Regional Location and Access
SOURCE: Ministry of Transportation 2.4 SUMMARY Strategically located at the intersection of two arterial roads in Ajax, the subject site has excellent
exposure and is considered ideal for a commercial development anchored by a supermarket. The uses
proposed on the subject site would complement the existing land uses in the vicinity, and provide
additional retail and service commercial choices to serve the existing and future population and
employment growth in the area. There are no existing supermarkets within 2 kilometres of the
subject site, with the No Frills on Westney Road to the west the closest at 2.4 kilometres away.
12
Town Of Ajax
3 Trade Area The total market influence attributed to a retail commercial development typically extends over a wide
area beyond any precise boundary that can be drawn. However, for the purposes of making reliable
estimates of available market support, a specific Trade Area has been defined.
The Trade Area delineated for the proposed commercial development is intended to reflect the drawing
power of the supermarket anchor. It represents the geographic area from which the majority of
permanent resident customer support would be derived, with the remainder coming from employees
working in the area, pass-by traffic and other non-residents. For the purposes of our supermarket
analysis, the Trade Area has been defined to include the following four Ajax Planning Areas:
1. Nottingham/Meadows
2. Wyndam/Somerset/Hamlet
3. Westney Heights/Hermitage/Riverside
4. Uptown/Lexington/Mulberry
The defined Trade Area, as illustrated in Figure 3-1, forms the basis for our detailed analysis of the
competitive environment, demographic characteristics, and retail expenditures described in subsequent
sections of this report.
The Trade Area is bounded by Taunton Road to the north; Audley Road North to the east; Kingston Road
to the south; and the Pickering/Ajax border to the west.
For the purposes of our per capita space analysis, a Local Zone has been defined to include the area
bounded by Williamson Drive East to the north, Audley Road North to the east, Westney Road North to
the west, and Magill Drive/Kerrison Drive East to the south. This area extends in a radius of
approximately 2 kilometres from the subject site. The remainder of the Trade Area outside the Local
Zone is referred to on Figure 3-1 as the Secondary Zone.
13
Town Of Ajax
Figure 3-1: Trade Area
14
Town Of Ajax
4 Review of Retail Competition An analysis of competitive retail facilities is critical to understanding the roles and functions that existing
stores in the Trade Area currently perform for local residents and visitors, as well as the potential
competitive influences which are expected to affect the market opportunity available for additional
supermarket space at the subject site.
The following discussion provides a general overview of the existing, planned/designated and proposed
commercial areas located in the Trade Area. A complete inventory of all food store retail (“FSR”) space
located in the Trade Area was conducted by urbanMetrics in May 2014. The FSR category includes the
following uses based on the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS):






44511 Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores
44512 Convenience Stores
44521 Meat Markets
44522 Fish and Seafood Markets
44523 Fruit and Vegetable Markets
44529 Other Specialty Food Stores, including Baked Goods Stores, Candy Nut, Health
Food, Cheese Shops and others
Our inventory fieldwork also included all non-food store retail (“NFSR”) stores and services located in the
Local Zone/periphery (see Appendix B for a detailed listing and Appendix D for a list of store types
included in these categories).
Based on a review of the Town of Ajax Commercial Policy Review and Land Needs Assessment – May
2009 (“Commercial Policy Review” or “CPR”), publicly available information and discussions with the
Town of Ajax planning staff, we have also identified planned/designated and proposed retail
developments in the Trade Area and vicinity that could be competitive with the supermarket anchored
development proposed for the subject site. These existing and any planned retail/service commercial
facilities in the Trade Area have been recognized in our market analysis.
4.1 TRADE AREA FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) SPACE The Trade Area FSR inventory by Planning Area is detailed in Figure 4-1. In total, 372,900 square feet of
FSR space is located in the Trade Area, which includes 319,200 square feet of supermarket and grocery
store space, and 53,700 square feet of convenience and specialty food store space. There are six
supermarkets in the Trade Area. In addition, located just outside the Trade Area on the south-west
corner of Harwood Avenue South and Kingston Road, is Lucky Market, a 7,000 square foot Asian grocery
store.
On the periphery of the Local Zone there are two supermarkets (No Frills and Food Basics) which
comprise a total of 58,300 square feet. Convenience and specialty food stores in the Local
Zone/periphery (including Westney Crossing and the Harwood North centre) comprise an estimated
15
Town Of Ajax
12,200 square feet. The FSR space in the Local Zone represents about 19% of the total FSR space in
the Trade Area.
Figure 4-1: Trade Area FSR Inventory (May 2014)
TRADE AREA ‐ FOOD STORE INVENTORY
Sq. Ft.
Local Zone Sec. Zone Sum
Sum
Grand Total
NAICS Description
FSR: Convenience & Specialty Food
Shopping Centre Name
Ajax Marketplace
Store Name
Mac's Convenience Stores
The Corner Store
Hakim Plaza
Ajax Smokey Way
Bulk Barn
Heritage Market Square
European Delicatessen
Tu Despensa Latin Market
M&M Meat Shops
Hermitage Centre
Meadow Ridge Plaza
Bulk Barn
Pickering Village
Al Mustafa Halal Meat
All In One Convenience
Cupcakes Canada
Hannah's Homemade Pastries
Village Convenience Plus
Westney Heights Plaza
Buon Giorno Itlaian Bakery & Deli
Westney At 2 Food Market
Whitetail Centre
Country Cheese
Cupcakes Canada
1801 Harwood Avenue North APG Convenience Video & Fast Food
115 Delaney Drive The Corner Store
48 Ravenscroft Road The Corner Store
2 Rossland Road West 7‐Eleven
Westney Crossing
Daisy Mart
1 Rossland Road West
Burraq's Kitchen & Fine Meats
West Indian Pantry
Wyndham Manor Plaza
Bravo Italian Bakery
Kitchen Food Fair Convenience
Pickering Village ‐ Fitz Plaza
Baksh Halal Meat
F&A Plaza
Ajax Convenience
FSR: Convenience & Specialty Food Total
FSR: Supermarkets & Other Grocery
Ajax Marketplace
Food Basics
Sobeys
Meadow Ridge Plaza
Nottingham Marketplace
No Frills
RIOCAN Harwood Centre
Real Canadian Superstore
Somerset Plaza
Metro
Westney Heights Plaza
Sobeys
18 Harwood Avenue South
Lucky Market
FSR: Supermarkets & Other Grocery Total
Grand Total
% of TOTAL
2,200
2,200
1,900
4,800
1,400
1,400
1,900
3,300
5,000
800
1,100
1,400
900
700
1,600
2,400
1,200
900
1,500
1,500
2,600
2,500
1,000
1,700
1,100
12,200
1,500
1,200
2,700
1,300
41,500
2,200
2,200
1,900
4,800
1,400
1,400
1,900
3,300
5,000
800
1,100
1,400
900
700
1,600
2,400
1,200
900
1,500
1,500
2,600
2,500
1,000
1,700
1,100
1,500
1,200
2,700
1,300
53,700
35,600
35,600
49,800
22,700
22,700
103,500 103,500
47,600 47,600
53,000 53,000
7,000 7,000
58,300 260,900 319,200
70,500 302,400 372,900
19%
81%
100%
49,800
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. May 2014
16
Town Of Ajax
Supermarket anchored retail centres located in each of the Planning Areas, which have been indicated in
Figure 4-2 following, are as follows:
Planning Area 1:


1-A - Meadow Ridge Plaza, Taunton Road/Westney – Designated Mixed Commercial Corridor,
this centre is anchored by a Sobey’s supermarket. It also includes a 5,000 square foot Bulk Barn
food store. This centre is located about 3.7 kilometres from the subject site.
1-B - Nottingham Marketplace, Westney Road/Williamson Road – Designated Local Central Area,
this centre is anchored by a No Frills supermarket. This centre is located about 2.4 kilometres
from the subject site.
Planning Area 2:

2-A - Somerset Plaza – Designated Local Central Area, this centre is anchored by a Metro
supermarket and is located about 2.9 kilometres to the north-east of the subject site.
Planning Area 3:



3-A - Ajax Marketplace, Westney Road/Magill Road – Designated Local Central Area, this centre
is anchored by a Food Basics supermarket and is located about 2.5 kilometres from the subject
site.
3-B – Westney Heights Plaza – Located in the designated Uptown Central Area, this centre is
anchored by a Sobeys Supermarket and is located about 3.2 kilometres from the subject site.
3-C – Riocan Harwood Centre – Also located in the designated Uptown Central Area, this centre
is anchored by a Real Canadian Superstore and is located about 2.5 kilometres from the subject
site.
Planning Area 4:
There are no supermarket anchored retail centres in this Planning Area, which includes the location of the
subject site. However, the Durham Centre, part of the designated Uptown Central Area, includes Costco
and Walmart Supercentre. Both of these major general merchandise retailers include a significant food
and grocery merchandise component. There is also a new Target department store in this centre which
offers a more limited selection of grocery merchandise.
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Town Of Ajax
Figure 4-2: Competitive Framework
Source: urbanMetrics inc.
4.2 LOCAL ZONE – NON‐FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) AND SERVICES SPACE Figure 4-3 provides a summary of the existing NFSR and services space in the Local Zone by retail node
and store category. Details of the inventory have been provided in Appendix B.
In addition to the FSR space previously indicated, the Local Zone includes 55,700 square feet of NFSR
space, including an estimated 36,800 square feet of pharmacy and personal care store space. The Local
Zone also has 182,800 square feet of services space, including two daycare facilities and a Goodlife
Fitness club. Health care services account for largest component of service space at an estimated 75,000
square feet. There is also about 49,600 square feet of vacant space in the Local Zone, of which the
majority is located at 300-338 Rossland Road East, a new service commercial development located just
to the east of the subject site on Prestige Employment designated lands. This project includes a fourstorey professional office building, with about 20,000 square feet vacant.
18
Town Of Ajax
Figure 4-3: Summary of NFSR, Service & Vacant Commercial Space in the Local Zone (SQFT)
LOCAL ZONE NFSR AND SERVICE SPACE
NAICS
NFSR
NFSR: Clothing Stores
NFSR: Computer & Software Stores
NFSR: Home Electronics & Appliance Stores
NFSR: Home Furnishings Stores
NFSR: Miscellaneous Store Retailers
NFSR: Other General Merchandise Stores
NFSR: Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores
NFSR: Shoe, Clothing Accessories & Jewellery Stores
Services
Services: Banks/Credit Unions
Services: Cultural, Entertainment & Recreation
Services: Food Services
Services: Health Care
Services: Insurance & Real Estate
Services: Other Financial
Services: Personal & Household Goods Repair & Maintenance
Services: Personal Care
Services: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Services: Selected Educational Services
Services: Social Services
VACANT
VACANT (1
Grand Total
Sq. Ft.
55,700
1,400
1,500
1,300
4,400
4,800
4,000
36,800
1,500
182,800
8,600
20,700
33,100
75,000
1,100
1,400
3,900
14,600
4,000
6,400
14,000
49,600
49,600
288,100
Sq.Ft./Capita (2
2.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.5
0.1
7.3
0.3
0.8
1.3
3.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.6
2.0
2.0
11.5
SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
1) Note: Space includes professional offices above ground level in commercial centres. A large portion of the vacant space in Planning Area 4 is in 300 Rossland Road, a 4 storey professional building that was recently completed.
2) Based on a Local Zone population of 25,100 persons in 2013.
The Local Zone/periphery includes the following commercial centres:

300-338 Rossland Road East (Planning Area 2)- Located in an designated Prestige Employment
area, a new 150,000 square foot centre recently opened at this location on the north-east corner
of Salem Road and Rossland Road East. This centre includes a Goodlife Fitness, Tim Hortons,
and a 4-storey professional office building. There is about 20,000 square feet of vacant space in
the office building and additional ground floor vacant space. Based on the site plan, additional
ground floor service space is planned to be added in the future (about 9,300 square feet).

1 Rossland Road West (Planning Area 4) @ Harwood Avenue – Located in a designated Local
Central Area and across from the subject site, this strip plaza is anchored by an IDA drug store.
In addition, it includes a number of service commercial establishments and a second floor office
component, which currently has about 5,800 square feet of vacant space.

Nottingham Marketplace (Planning Area 1) – SE corner Williamson Drive and Westney Road Designated Local Central Area, this centre is anchored by a new No Frills supermarket and
Shoppers Drug Mart.
19
Town Of Ajax


North Harwood Centre (Planning Area 2) – Harwood Avenue North, north of Williamson Drive Located in a designated Prestige Employment area, on the periphery of the Local Zone, this
85,900 commercial/industrial condo centre includes a number of retail and service
establishments. Retail and convenience stores are permitted in conjunction with the uses
currently permitted in the Prestige Employment Zone, subject to a number of criteria, including
that the cumulative floor area for all retail and convenience store uses does not exceed 35% of
the total floor area on the lot (2,790 m2 or 30,040 ft2) as approved in Site Plan Application SP
36/06;
Westney Crossing (Planning Area 1) – SW corner Williamson Drive and Westney Road Designated Medium Density Residential, this small 10,600 square foot convenience centre
includes a daycare and a number of service tenants, as well as a Daisy Mart convenience store.
It is located on the western periphery of the Local Zone.
4.3 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENTS As part of our competition analysis we have identified planned/designated and proposed commercial
developments in the Trade Area, based on a review of information presented in the Ajax Commercial
Policy Review (CPR), as well as publicly available information and discussions with municipal planning
staff.
The following summarizes the additional planned/designated and proposed commercial developments in
the Trade Area/periphery with greater than 5,000 square feet, the locations of which have been identified
in Figure 4-4:
A. SW Corner of Church Street and Taunton Road - Designated Mixed-Commercial Corridor – This
site is located just outside the defined Trade Area and according to the Town could accommodate
a supermarket, as well as other retail and service commercial uses. We would consider any
development on this site as long term. The CPR estimates a floor area of about 126,000 square
feet.
B. West side of Church Street at Hurst Drive, south of the Hydro Right-of-Way (Planning Area 8) –
Designated Local Central Area and zoned Agricultural “A” – This site, located on the periphery of
the Trade Area, is likely to accommodate a convenience commercial centre to serve the existing
and future residential development in the local area.
C. South side of Rossland Road, east of Harkins – Designated Low Density Residential in the
Official Plan and zoned Neighbourhood Commercial “NC”. Based on the NC zoning, the
maximum space permitted would be 1,400 square metres (15,000 square feet) with no store
larger than 250 square metres (2,700 square feet).
D. Meadow Ridge Plaza, Ravenscroft/Taunton Road– Designated Mixed-Commercial Corridor, there
are additional lands planned for a future expansion of this existing centre. According to the
RioCan site plan, an additional 35,700 square feet is planned.
20
Town Of Ajax
E. Kingston Road, East of Salem (Picov) – Designated Mixed-Commercial Corridor, this site could
accommodate about 240,100 square feet according to the Ajax Commercial Policy Review. This
site is zoned Agricultural “A” and is currently occupied by Picov’s Horsemen Centre, a retail store
selling equestrian and horse related goods.
F. 300-338 Rossland Road East – This commercial centre could expand by an additional 10,000
square feet according to the site plan.
Based on our review of the location characteristics and/or site sizes of the above sites, in our professional
opinion, none of these are likely to include a supermarket.
Figure 4-4: Designated/Planned Commercial Space – Trade Area and Area
There are a number of sites located outside the Trade Area in Whitby, Pickering and south Ajax that
could include a supermarket and/or additional retail/service space in the future. Potential supermarket
locations (see Figure 4-4 for location) in proximity to the Trade Area that could influence Trade Area
residents’ shopping patterns include:


South Ajax – Bayly, east of Salem Road (Mixed-Commercial Corridor) and/or west of Salem
Road (Local Central Area)
Duffin Heights, Pickering – Brock Road, north of Rossland Road (Mixed-Use Corridor)
21
Town Of Ajax




West Whitby – Rossland Road/Coronation Road (Mixed-Use One) and Taunton
Road/Coronation Road (Mixed-Use Two)
Seaton, including Thompson’s Corners (Brock/Concession 5) and Lamoreau (Taunton Road,
west of Brock) designated Community Nodes
Pickering – The Shops at Pickering Ridge, Pickering Parkway – Blue Sky supermarket (ethnic) is
planned to in July 2014 (43,277 sq.ft.)
Whitby – Taunton/Garden - a 35,000 square foot Farm Boy supermarket, the first location in the
GTA, is planned to open on the north-east corner of Taunton Road East and Garden Street in
Whitby. A Zoning-By-Law amendment has been approved by Planning Committee to permit this
store in May 2014, but requires final Council approval.
22
Town Of Ajax
5 Trade Area Population and Income The population residing in a Trade Area and its prospects for growth, along with income levels, are major
factors influencing the retail expenditures available and retail space warranted in the market. In order to
analyze the potential market opportunity for the proposed supermarket on the subject site, we have
estimated the historic, current and forecast future population levels in the Trade Area, as well as the
current average per capita income level of the Trade Area population.
5.1 POPULATION The following subsection summarizes the historic, current and forecast population residing in the Trade
Area. The historic 2006 and 2011 estimates have been based on Statistics Canada Census data,
adjusted for net undercoverage. Current year (2013) and population forecasts have been based on our
review of residential development applications; the Town of Ajax Proposed Official Plan Amendment No.
41 – Residential Intensification (June 21, 2010); Durham Region, Short-Term Population Forecast, 20132018, Report 2013-P-63 (Sept. 24, 2013); and Durham Region Semi-Annual Population Estimates,
Report 2014-P-16 (February 18, 2014). We note that the Town has reviewed our forecasts and finds
them acceptable.
Figure 5-1: Trade Area Population, 2006 to 2031
23
Town Of Ajax
As indicated in Figures 5-1 and 5-2, the population of the Trade Area increased by 17,500 persons
between 2006 and 2011. Between 2011 and 2013, we have estimated an increase of 2,800 persons.
The Trade Area population is forecast to increase to 76,600 persons by 2031, a growth of 8,500 persons,
or an average growth rate of about 472 persons per year over this 18-year period. Based on
development applications and the OPA 41 population yields for 2031, the majority of this growth is
expected to occur in the Local Zone and Planning Area 4, in close proximity to the subject site.
Figure 5-2: Trade Area and Ajax Population
TRADE AREA POPULATION ESTIMATES
Census
2006
Census
2011
with Net with Net Undercoverage Undercoverage (Factor (Factor 1.04) (1
1.0411)(1
1. Nottingham/Meadows
8,300 13,300
Average Annual Growth
1,000
2. Wyndam/Somerset/Hamlet
4,900 14,900
2,000
3. Westney Heights/Hermitage/ Riverside
29,700 30,700
200
4. Uptown/Lexington/Mulberry
4,900 6,400
300
TOTAL TRADE AREA
47,800 65,300
3,500
Local Zone
As % of Trade Area
Secondary Zone
As % of Trade Area
2013
2016
2018
2021
2023
2026
2031
(2
13,600
150
15,800
450
(2
14,000
133
16,800
333
(2
14,200
100
17,100
150
(3
14,500
100
17,400
100
(4
14,700
100
17,600
100
(5
15,000
100
17,800
67
(5
15,200
40
17,900
20
30,700 30,600 30,500 30,300 30,200
‐
‐ 33 ‐ 50 ‐ 67 ‐ 50
8,000 10,900 12,200 13,200 13,500
800 967 650 333 150
68,100 72,300 74,000 75,400 76,000
1,400 1,400 850 467 300
30,000
‐ 67
13,600
33
76,400
133
(6
15,200
17,835
29,800 27,700
‐ 40
13,700 13,640
20
76,600 74,375
40
16,000 22,700 25,100 28,900 30,400 31,600 32,100 32,400 32,600
33.5%
34.8%
36.9%
40.0%
41.1%
41.9%
42.2%
42.4%
42.6%
1,340 1,200 1,267 750 400 250 100 40
31,800 42,600 43,000 43,400 43,600 43,800 43,900 44,000 44,000
67%
65.2%
63.1%
60.0%
58.9%
58.1%
57.8%
57.6%
57.4%
2,160 200 133 100 67 50 33 ‐
Other Ajax
46,000 48,800 49,700 54,100 58,400 58,600 58,900
560 450 1,467 2,150 67 150
TOTAL AJAX
93,800 114,100 117,800 126,400 132,400 134,000 134,900
4,060 1,850 2,867 3,000 533 450
Trade Area as a % of AJAX
OPA 41 Yields
by 2031
51.0%
57.2%
57.8%
57.2%
55.9%
56.3%
56.3%
59,500
200
135,900
333
56.2%
61,100
320
137,700
360
55.6%
63,295
137,670
54.0%
2011
2013
2016
2018
2021
2023
2026
2031
Durhan Region (Short‐Term & OPA 128)
114,105 117,835 126,400 132,400
137,700 137,700
Ajax, Proposed OPA 41
111,355
126,325
135,870 137,670
Watson ‐ Development Charges (assumes Census undercount of 4.56%)
94,280 114,600 119,330
134,860
137,700
1) As utilized by Durham Region, Report 2013‐P‐63.
2) Total Ajax based on Durham Region, Report 2014‐P‐16 (Feb. 18, 2014) and Short term population and household forecasts, 2013‐2018, Report 2013‐P‐63 (Sept. 24, 2013). Forecast distribution for Trade Area based on our review of residential applications, Official Plan yields by area (pre‐2011 Census based), and 2011 Census.
3) urbanMetrics estimates.
4) Total Ajax based on the Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., Town of Ajax 2013 Development Charges Background Study (June 19, 2013).
5) Total Ajax based on the Durham Region Official Plan forecast for Ajax (OPA 128).
6) Town of Ajax, Draft Official Official Plan Amendment No. 41 ‐ Residential Intensification (June 21, 2010).
24
Town Of Ajax
We note that the Town’s 2031 yields for Planning Area 3 are about 3,000 persons below the 2011
population for that area. Based on discussions with the Town, this area is expected to remain stable over
the study period and therefore we have assumed a higher yield of 76,600 persons in the Trade Area by
2031, compared to the 74,375 person yield in the Ajax draft Official Plan Amendment No. 41 which was
estimated prior to the release of the 2011 Census. Over the forecast period we have assumed a higher
growth rate in the shorter term, which is consistent with the 2013-2031 Housing Forecast for Ajax
presented in the Town of Ajax 2013 Development Charges Background Study (June 19, 2013), prepared
by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. The distributions by Planning Area for the forecast period are
urbanMetrics inc. estimates based on the 2031 yields.
For the Local Zone, the population has been forecast to increase from 25,100 persons in 2013 to 32,600
persons by 2031; a growth of 7,500 persons. The Local Zone is expected to comprise the majority of
growth in the Trade Area over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be focused on the short to
medium term, with the rate of growth levelling off over the forecast period as greenfield lands are
absorbed.
5.2 PER CAPITA INCOME Per capita income levels provide a reasonable guide or basis for determining the expenditure habits of
the local population living within a defined area. Although certain intervening variables, including age and
geographic location, can influence consumer expenditure habits and shopping preferences, population
groupings with similar income characteristics tend to exhibit similar expenditure habits for broad
merchandise groupings.
As detailed in Figure 5-3, we have calculated the per capita income levels for residents of the Trade Area
based on 2006 Statistics Canada Census data and have compared these with Environics 2013 estimates.
Overall for the Trade Area there is no significant difference. For the purposes of our analysis, we have
utilized the Environics 2013 income indices as detailed in Figure 5-3 to estimate the per capita retail
expenditure levels for the Trade Area.
Figure 5-3: Per Capita Income
PER CAPITA INCOME ESTIMATES 2006 Census (1
Index to Province
Environics 2013 (2
Index to Province
Planning Area 1
2
3
4
TRADE AREA
$24,693
$30,109
$30,851
$28,242
$29,438
80.4
98.0
100.4
91.9
95.8
$30,330
$30,548
$36,361
$38,016
$33,785
82.7
83.3
99.1
103.6
92.1
ONTARIO
$30,723
100.0
$36,678
100.0
1) Statistics Canada, 2006 Census (2005 income levels).
2) Environics, 2013 Estimates and Projections.
25
Town Of Ajax
6 Supermarket Analysis This section of the study analyzes the market demand for additional supermarket space in the Trade Area
to 2031 and measures the potential impact that may result from additional supermarket space in the
Trade Area.
As discussed in Section 1 of this report, the proposed development at the subject site is expected to
include a 49,576 square foot3 supermarket, including a mezzanine level. No convenience or specialty
food stores are planned for the development. As a result, we have conducted a detailed market demand
analysis for the supermarket and grocery store sub-category. We have not examined the convenience
and specialty food store sub-category.
6.1 TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL As indicated in Figure 6-1, based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, the 2013 average per capita
FSR expenditure in Ontario is estimated at $2,277. Similarly, the 2013 average per capita Non-Food
Store Retail (NFSR) expenditure in Ontario has been estimated at $5,657. Appendix D provides the
detailed data for Ontario per capita retail expenditures.
For each Planning Area in the Trade Area (Planning Areas 1 to 4, with the subject site in Area 4), per
capita total Retail (FSR and NFSR combined) expenditures for 2013 have been estimated based on their
per capita income levels relative to the province and regressions equations for FSR and NFSR (see
Appendix D for details). The use of the regression equations recognizes that spending by store category
can vary based on income levels.
To recognize the potential shifts in retail expenditures by store type, we have evaluated both FSR and
NFSR together and have modified the distribution of retail expenditures by store type over the forecast
period. It is recognized in our analysis that in addition to shopping in FSR stores, Trade Area residents
also shop in NFSR stores for food and grocery merchandise. These NFSR stores include general
merchandise stores (e.g. Costco, Walmart Supercentres, Target, Giant Tiger, etc.) and health and
personal care stores (e.g. Shoppers Drug Mart, Rexall). Based on Commodity Statistics (see Appendix
D, Figure D-3 for details), in Canada currently over 21% of food merchandise is purchased in NFSR
stores, with the remainder in FSR stores. This has doubled over the past 10 years and continues to
increase, particularly as the department stores and drug stores add more food merchandise. Our
telephone survey results (see Appendix C, Figure C-3) also mirror those for Canada, with Trade Area
residents’ making food and grocery merchandise purchases in general merchandise and health &
personal care stores, in addition to shopping at food stores.
3
Excludesthemechanicalmezzanineof1,262squarefeetbutincludes4,726squarefeetofothermezzaninespace.
26
Town Of Ajax
Based on our telephone survey, we have estimated that Trade Area residents are currently spending
$36.4 million in selected NFSR stores for food and grocery merchandise (see Appendix C for details),
representing about 19% of their total food purchases (FSR plus the NFSR food and grocery component).
Recognizing the opportunity for sales transfers from NFSR stores, in Figure 6-1 we have assumed a
marginal increase in the FSR share of total Retail expenditures for each Trade Area zone, which results
in overall sales transfers from NFSR stores amounting to about $3.2 million in 2016.
In Figure 6-1, FSR has been further divided into two major categories: supermarket and grocery, and
convenience and specialty food stores. The current distribution has been based on our review of the
provincial distribution, the telephone surveys results and our review of the inventory of space in the Trade
Area. For the forecast period, a 0.5% increase in the supermarket share of total FSR has been assumed
for all Trade Area zones. For example, in Planning Area 1, the supermarket and grocery share of total
Retail has been estimated at 25.2% or 85% of FSR (29.7%) in 2013. In 2016, the supermarket and
grocery share of total Retail for Planning Area 1 residents has been estimated at 25.8% or 85.5% of the
FSR share of total Retail (30.2%).
6.2 SUPERMARKET AND GROCERY STORE DEMAND ANALYSIS In this section of the study we have evaluated the future market potential available for additional
supermarket space in the Trade Area and any impacts that may be created with the addition of a
supermarket on the subject site.
Figure 6-3 details the results of our supermarket analysis which recognizes the sales transfers from
NFSR stores to FSR stores. The supermarket expenditures calculated in Figure 6-1 in Section 7 of this
study for each zone of the Trade Area have been transferred to the corresponding sections in Figure 6-3.
The following summarizes our assumptions and the results of our analysis:

Space Assumptions: We have assumed a 49,576 square foot supermarket on the subject site,
which includes a 4,726 square foot mezzanine. A seasonal garden centre of 1,700 square feet and
mechanical mezzanine of 1,262 square feet have not been included. To our knowledge there are no
other supermarkets currently proposed in the Trade Area. However, based on information from the
Town, there is one vacant designated Mixed-Commercial site located at the south-west corner of
Taunton Road and Church Street, on the periphery of the Trade Area, which could potentially
accommodate a supermarket in the future. We note that the location of this site is somewhat removed
from future residential development and on the edge of the urban area, and therefore, in our opinion it
is unlikely to attract a supermarket tenant.

Supermarket & Grocery Store Expenditure Potential - Based on our estimates of the supermarket
and grocery share of total retail expenditure potential, Trade Area residents’ supermarket expenditure
potential has been calculated at $135.0 million in 2013, with an increase to $162.5 million by 2031.
This represent a growth of $27.5 million which will support both existing and additional supermarket
and grocery store space in the Trade Area and elsewhere.
27
Town Of Ajax

Trade Area Share: Based on the telephone consumer survey, on average, Trade Area residents
currently make about 77% ($104.0 million) of their supermarket and grocery store purchases in
Trade Area stores (excluding expenditures made in NFSR stores such as Walmart Supercentres,
which are included in NFSR expenditures). Supermarkets located in south Ajax (10.4%), Pickering
(7.4%) and Whitby (2.8%) capture the majority of Trade Area residents’ expenditures made outside
the Trade Area. Trade Area shares range from a high of 89% for Planning Area 4 residents to a low
of 70.9% for Planning Area 2 residents. We have increased the Trade Area shares over the forecast
period for all Planning Areas to recognize the addition of the proposed store on the subject site.
These increases result in an overall increase of the Trade Area share to 79.6% by 2016, a 2.6%
increase from the current level.

Residual Potential - Based on the distribution of FSR spending, the opportunity to recapture sales
currently leaving the Trade Area, as well as market growth, we have estimated there will be $13.9
million of additional sales volume available by 2016 for new/existing stores in the Trade Area, with an
estimated $26.4 million available by 2031 (expressed in 2013 dollars).

Inflow – Average inflow sales have been estimated at about 37.5% for new supermarket space in the
Trade Area and for the subject site. This inflow factor is considered conservative given the results of
the licence plate surveys conducted at the Sobeys and Metro on Taunton Road which show much
higher levels of inflow.

Total Sales Potential Available – Based on the residual sales potential and inflow sales, up to $22.2
million would be available for existing/new supermarket space in the Trade Area by 2016, increasing
to $42.3 million by 2031 (expressed in 2013 dollars).

Additional Space Warranted – The average sales performance for new supermarket space has
been tested at various sales levels ranging between $550 and $625 per square foot. At these sales
levels and excluding any sales transfers from existing Trade Area supermarkets, up to 40,400 square
feet of additional supermarket space would be warranted in the Trade Area by 2016 (at $550 per
square foot), increasing to 76,800 square feet by 2031 at the same sales level.

Impacts on Existing Stores – The existing supermarkets and grocery store in the Trade Area are
currently performing at an estimated average sales level of $612 per square foot, with some stores
performing at levels significantly above this average and others below (see Figure 6-4). This
assumes an average inflow of 46.7% (see Figure 6-3). This high average inflow level is considered a
function of the location of the stores along major commuter routes and in proximity to Pickering and
Whitby. Based on Statistics Canada data, the typical industry average in Ontario for chain stores is in
the $600 per square foot range. Therefore, on average, existing stores in the Trade Area are
performing within typical industry norms.
With the addition of the subject site supermarket achieving sales of $27.3 million in 2016, increasing
to $31.0 million by 2031, overall, sales for existing supermarkets in the Trade Area would decline by
3.1% in 2016, with full recovery to existing levels shortly thereafter. Sales reductions for existing
stores would be short lived due to the continued market growth expected. As a result, it is unlikely
that the new store would cause any critical sales impact on existing stores in the Trade Area.
28
Town Of Ajax
Figure 6-1: Trade Area Retail Expenditure Potential
TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
2013 Dollars
2013
Province of Ontario
Total Retail Expenditures
Food Store Retail
Supermarket & Grocery
Other Food
Non‐Food Store Retail
2013 Dollars
Planning Area 1
Per Capita Retail Expenditures
Population
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ($Millions) (1
Food Store Retail (%)
Supermarket & Grocery (%)
Other Food (%)
Non Food Store Retail (%)
TOTAL
Food Store Retail ($Millions)
Supermarket & Grocery ($Millions)
Other Food ($Millions)
Non Food Store Retail ($Millions)
TOTAL ($Millions)
$ 7,512 $ 7,568
$ 7,606 $ 7,662 $ 7,756 $ 7,849
13,600 14,000 14,200 14,500 15,000 15,200
$ 102.2 $ 106.0
$ 108.0 $ 111.1 $ 116.3 $ 119.3
29.7%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
25.2%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
70.3%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
$ 36.0
$ 30.4
$ 32.0
$ 32.6
$ 33.6
$ 35.1
$ 25.8
$ 27.4
$ 27.9
$ 28.7
$ 30.0
$ 30.8
$ 4.6
$ 4.6
$ 4.7
$ 4.9
$ 5.1
$ 5.2
$ 71.8
$ 74.0
$ 75.4
$ 77.5
$ 81.2
$ 83.3
$ 102.2 $ 106.0
$ 108.0 $ 111.1 $ 116.3 $ 119.3
Planning Area 2
Population
Other Food (%)
TOTAL
TOTAL ($Millions)
$ 7,525 $ 7,582
$ 7,619 $ 7,676 $ 7,770 $ 7,864
15,800 16,800 17,100 17,400 17,800 17,900
$ 118.9 $ 127.4
$ 130.3 $ 133.6 $ 138.3 $ 140.8
29.7%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
30.2%
25.5%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
70.3%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
69.8%
100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
$ 42.5
$ 35.3
$ 38.5
$ 39.4
$ 40.3
$ 41.8
$ 30.4
$ 33.3
$ 34.0
$ 34.9
$ 36.1
$ 36.8
$ 4.9
$ 5.2
$ 5.3
$ 5.4
$ 5.6
$ 5.7
$ 83.6
$ 88.9
$ 90.9
$ 93.3
$ 96.5
$ 98.3
$ 118.9 $ 127.4
$ 130.3 $ 133.6 $ 138.3 $ 140.8
Planning Area 3
Population
Other Food (%)
TOTAL
TOTAL ($Millions)
$ 7,909 $ 7,969
$ 8,008 $ 8,067 $ 8,166 $ 8,265
30,700 30,600 30,500 30,300 30,000 29,800
$ 242.8 $ 243.8
$ 244.2 $ 244.4 $ 245.0 $ 246.3
28.8%
29.3%
29.3%
29.3%
29.3%
29.3%
25.9%
26.5%
26.5%
26.5%
26.5%
26.5%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
71.2%
70.7%
70.7%
70.7%
70.7%
70.7%
100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
$ 72.2
$ 69.9
$ 71.4
$ 71.6
$ 71.6
$ 71.8
$ 62.9
$ 64.6
$ 64.8
$ 64.8
$ 65.0
$ 65.3
$ 7.0
$ 6.8
$ 6.8
$ 6.8
$ 6.8
$ 6.9
$ 172.9 $ 172.4
$ 172.6 $ 172.8 $ 173.2 $ 174.1
$ 242.8 $ 243.8
$ 244.2 $ 244.4 $ 245.0 $ 246.3
$ 7,934
$ 2,277
$ 1,965
$ 312
$ 5,657
2013
100.0%
28.7%
24.8%
3.9%
71.3%
2016
2018
2021
2026
2031
29
Town Of Ajax
Figure 6-1 (Continued)
TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL (Continued)
2013 Dollars
Planning Area 4
Population
Supermarket and Grocery (%)
Other Food (%)
TOTAL
Supermarket and Grocery ($Millions)
TOTAL ($Millions)
TOTAL TRADE AREA
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES
Supermarket and Grocery($Millions)
Cumulative Growth in Expenditures:
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES
Supermarket and Grocery ($Millions)
2013
2016
2018
2021
2026
2031
$ 8,022 $ 8,082
$ 8,123 $ 8,183 $ 8,283 $ 8,383
8,000 10,900 12,200 13,200 13,600 13,700
$ 64.2
$ 88.1
$ 99.1 $ 108.0 $ 112.7 $ 114.8
28.5%
29.5%
29.5%
29.5%
29.5%
29.5%
24.8%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
25.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
71.5%
70.5%
70.5%
70.5%
70.5%
70.5%
100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
$ 33.9
$ 18.3
$ 26.0
$ 29.2
$ 31.9
$ 33.2
$ 15.9
$ 22.7
$ 25.6
$ 27.9
$ 29.1
$ 29.6
$ 2.4
$ 3.2
$ 3.7
$ 4.0
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 45.9
$ 62.1
$ 69.9
$ 76.1
$ 79.5
$ 80.9
$ 64.2
$ 88.1
$ 99.1 $ 108.0 $ 112.7 $ 114.8
$ 528.1
$ 153.9
$ 135.0
$ 18.9
$ 374.2
$ 565.3
$ 167.9
$ 148.0
$ 19.9
$ 397.4
$ 581.6
$ 172.8
$ 152.3
$ 20.5
$ 408.8
$ 597.1
$ 177.4
$ 156.3
$ 21.1
$ 419.7
$ 612.3
$ 181.9
$ 160.2
$ 21.7
$ 430.4
$ 621.2
$ 184.6
$ 162.5
$ 22.1
$ 436.6
$ 37.2
$ 14.0
$ 13.0
$ 1.0
$ 23.2
$ 53.5
$ 18.9
$ 17.2
$ 1.6
$ 34.6
$ 69.0
$ 23.5
$ 21.2
$ 2.2
$ 45.5
$ 84.2
$ 28.0
$ 25.2
$ 2.8
$ 56.2
$ 93.1
$ 30.7
$ 27.5
$ 3.2
$ 62.4
1) The base year percentage distributions are urbanmetrics estimates based on our review of the provincial distribution, telephone survey results and our inventory of retail space. The forecast distributions are urbanMetrics estimates, modified from the base year to recognize planned additions.
30
Town Of Ajax
Figure 6-2: Supermarket and Grocery Store Analysis
SUPERMARKET & GROCERY ANALYSIS
2013 Dollars
Planning Area 1
Supermarket & Grocery Expenditures ($Millions)
Estimated Trade Area Share (%) (1
Estimated Trade Area Share ($Millions)
Residual Potential
Planning Area 2
Residual Potential
Planning Area 3
Residual Potential
Planning Area 4
Residual Potential
TOTAL TRADE AREA
TOTAL Supermarket & Grocery Expenditures ($Millions)
Residual Potential ($Millions)
2013
2016
2018
2021
2026
2031
$ 25.8
87.0%
$ 22.5
$ 27.4
88.5%
$ 24.2
$ 1.8
$ 27.9
88.5%
$ 24.7
$ 2.2
$ 28.7
88.5%
$ 25.4
$ 2.9
$ 30.0
88.5%
$ 26.6
$ 4.1
$ 30.8
88.5%
$ 27.3
$ 4.8
$ 30.4
70.9%
$ 21.5
$ 33.3
72.5%
$ 24.1
$ 2.6
$ 34.0
72.5%
$ 24.7
$ 3.2
$ 34.9
72.5%
$ 25.3
$ 3.8
$ 36.1
72.5%
$ 26.2
$ 4.7
$ 36.8
72.5%
$ 26.7
$ 5.2
$ 62.9
72.8%
$ 45.8
$ 64.6
75.0%
$ 48.5
$ 2.6
$ 64.8
75.0%
$ 48.6
$ 2.7
$ 64.8
75.0%
$ 48.6
$ 2.8
$ 65.0
75.0%
$ 48.7
$ 2.9
$ 65.3
75.0%
$ 49.0
$ 3.2
$ 15.9
89.0%
$ 14.2
$ 22.7
92.5%
$ 21.0
$ 6.9
$ 25.6
92.5%
$ 23.7
$ 9.5
$ 27.9
92.5%
$ 25.8
$ 11.6
$ 29.1
92.5%
$ 26.9
$ 12.7
$ 29.6
92.5%
$ 27.4
$ 13.2
$ 135.0
$ 104.0
77.0%
$ 148.0
$ 117.9
79.6%
$ 13.9
$ 152.3
$ 121.6
79.9%
$ 17.6
$ 156.3
$ 125.1
80.0%
$ 21.1
$ 160.2
$ 128.4
80.1%
$ 24.4
$ 162.5
$ 130.4
80.2%
$ 26.4
$ 21.1
37.5%
$ 12.7
$ 24.4
37.5%
$ 14.7
$ 26.4
37.5%
$ 15.8
WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SUPERMARKET & GROCERY SPACE IN TRADE AREA (including inflow)
Additional Residual Potential Available from Residents
$ 13.9
$ 17.6
Plus Inflow Sales @ (2
37.5%
37.5%
Inflow Sales $ 8.3
$ 10.6
TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE IN TRADE $ 22.2
$ 28.2
AREA($Millions)
Square Feet Warranted (excluding sales transfers from Trade Area Stores)
@$550 per square foot
40,400 51,200
39,700 50,300
38,600 49,000
37,000 46,900
35,600 45,100
$ 33.8
$ 39.1
Square Feet (3
61,400 71,000
60,300 69,800
58,700 67,900
56,300 65,100
54,000 62,500
$ 42.3
76,800
75,500
73,500
70,400
67,600
31
Town Of Ajax
SUPERMARKET & GROCERY ANALYSIS (Continued)
2013 Dollars
2013
Subject Site
Square Feet Proposed (including non‐mechanical mezzanine of 4,726 sq.ft.)
Estimated Sales per Square Foot
Total Estimated Sales ($Millions)
Less: Inflow (%) (2
Less: Inflow ($Millions)
Total Sales Volume from TRADE AREA Residents ($Millions)
PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND
Total Sales Volume Required from TRADE AREA Residents (excludes inflow)
Total Sales Volume Available from TRADE AREA Residents (excludes inflow) (4
Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (‐) / Residual Market Demand (+)
IMPACT ANALYSIS ‐ TRADE AREA
TOTAL Existing Store Sales from Trade Area ($Millions)
Plus Estimated Inflow (%) (2
Inflow
TOTAL SALES, EXISTING TRADE AREA STORES ($Millions)
Square Feet GLA Existing (3 ‐ TRADE AREA
Sales/Sq.Ft. Existing Existing Stores ‐ Change in Sales/Sq.Ft. From Base Year
2016
2018
2021
2026
2031
49,575 49,575 49,575 49,575 49,575
$ 550
$ 560
$ 575
$ 600
$ 625
$ 27.3
$ 27.8
$ 28.5
$ 29.7
$ 31.0
37.5%
37.5%
37.5%
37.5%
37.5%
$ 10.2
$ 10.4
$ 10.7
$ 11.1
$ 11.6
$ 17.1
$ 17.4
$ 17.8
$ 18.6
$ 19.4
$ 17.1
$ 13.9
‐$3.2
$ 17.4
$ 17.6
$ 0.2
$ 17.8
$ 21.1
$ 3.3
$ 18.6
$ 24.4
$ 5.9
$ 19.4
$ 26.4
$ 7.0
$ 104.0 $ 100.8
$ 104.2 $ 107.3 $ 109.8 $ 111.0
46.7%
46.7%
46.7%
46.7%
46.7%
46.7%
$ 91.2
$ 88.4
$ 195.6 $ 201.4 $ 206.2 $ 208.4
$ 195.2 $ 189.2
$ 195.6 $ 201.4 $ 206.2 $ 208.4
319,200 319,200 319,200 319,200 319,200 319,200
$ 612
$ 593
$ 613
$ 631
$ 646
$ 653
‐3.1%
0.2%
3.2%
5.6%
6.8%
1) urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on an evaluation of our May 2013 inventory of supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area and the results of the May 2014 telephone consumer survey. See Appendix C for more information.
2) urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on a review of the results of the customer origin licence plate surveys conducted at the Sobeys and Metro on Taunton Road (see Appendix A for more information), as well as other survey research conducted in the past in Ajax. 3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.
6.3 SUPERMARKET AND GROCERY STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS In order to evaluate the findings of the overall impact analysis shown in the latter part of Figure 6-2, as
well as to test the level of impact on individual supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area, we
have conducted a directional impact analysis. The results of this impact analysis, detailed for 2016 to
2026, is presented in Figure 6-3.
In Figure 6-3, we have estimated the sales for the seven supermarkets and grocery store in the Trade
Area based on the results of the telephone consumer survey and licence plate survey data. Although the
licence plate surveys would suggest higher inflow levels than utilized in Figure 6-3, we have assumed
reduced inflow factors to recognize the limitations of licence plate surveys (see Appendix B for details).
Resulting sales per square foot levels for Trade Area supermarkets range from a low of $355 per square
foot for the Sobeys in the Meadow Ridge Place on Taunton Road, to a high of $1,204 per square foot for
32
Town Of Ajax
the No Frills in the Nottingham Marketplace on Westney Road. The Lucky Market, an Asian specialty
grocery store of some 7,000 square feet, has been estimated at $272 per square foot.
While the sales levels for the two Ajax supermarkets on Taunton Road are considered below typical
industry averages, sales for these newer stores have likely been impacted due to a location on the edge
of the Ajax urban area. Sales level will likely benefit in the future from new residential development
underway/planned nearby these stores (e.g. for the Sobeys these projects include new residential
development along Church Street, a high rise condominium planned adjacent to the centre, a townhouse
project at the corner of Taunton Road and Harwood Avenue North, and potentially the Duffin Heights
neighbourhood in Pickering to the west along Brock Road, among other new projects in north-west Ajax).
As indicated in Figure 6-3, we expect the sales impacts would generally be distributed over the
supermarkets in the Trade Area, with those closest supermarkets to the subject site likely to be impacted
the greatest. For reference, the following chart indicates the proximity of the stores to the subject site:
Key Store
Distance from Site
(Kilometres)
Nottingham Marketplace No Frills –
2.4
RIOCAN Harwood Centre Real Canadian Superstore
(RCSS)
2.5
Ajax Marketplace Food Basics
2.5
Harwood Avenue South Lucky Market
2.6
Somerset Plaza Metro
2.9
Westney Heights Plaza Sobeys
3.2
Meadow Ridge Plaza Sobeys
3.7
Based on our analysis, with the introduction of the subject site with a first full year of operation in 2016,
the Meadow Ridge Sobeys, located on the periphery of the Trade Area, could experience a sales decline
estimated 1.4%. Sales levels for the Somerset Metro, also located on the periphery of the Trade Area,
are expected to decline by about 2.2% in 2016, with slightly higher sales declines expected for the No
Frills, RCSS, Food Basics, and Westney Heights Sobeys. The sales declines estimated are considered
acceptable, particularly recognizing that all supermarkets would recover to above existing levels within
two years.
33
Town Of Ajax
Figure 6-3: Supermarket and Grocery Store Impact Analysis
SUPERMARKET/GROCERY IMPACT ANALYSIS
Sales From Sales Per Percent TRADE Square Change TOTAL Plus: Market AREA from Foot SALES Square Inflow Share in Residents ($Millions) Trade Area(1 Estimate ($Millions) Footage Levels Base Year
2013 Dollars
2013
TOTAL TRADE AREA
18 Harwood Avenue South Lucky Market
$ 104.0
$ 9.7
$ 15.0
$ 9.6
$ 15.6
$ 39.5
$ 13.6
$ 1.0
77.0%
7.2%
11.1%
7.1%
11.5%
29.2%
10.0%
0.7%
46.7%
45.0%
45.0%
47.5%
45.0%
50.0%
40.0%
50.0%
$ 195.2
$ 17.7
$ 27.3
$ 18.3
$ 28.4
$ 79.0
$ 22.6
$ 1.9
319,200
49,800
22,700
47,600
53,000
103,500
35,600
7,000
$ 612
$ 355
$ 1,204
$ 385
$ 535
$ 763
$ 635
$ 272
OUTSIDE TRADE AREA
TOTAL, ALL LOCATIONS
$ 31.0
$ 135.0
23.0%
100.0%
2016
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Nottingham Marketplace No Frills
18 Harwood Avenue South Lucky Market
Total Existing
$ 117.9
$ 9.6
$ 14.5
$ 9.4
$ 15.2
$ 38.1
$ 13.1
$ 1.0
$ 100.8
79.6%
6.5%
9.8%
6.4%
10.3%
25.7%
8.8%
0.6%
68.1%
45.6%
45.0%
45.0%
47.5%
45.0%
50.0%
40.0%
50.0%
46.7%
$ 216.5
$ 17.4
$ 26.3
$ 18.0
$ 27.7
$ 76.2
$ 21.8
$ 1.9
$ 189.2
368,775
49,800
22,700
47,600
53,000
103,500
35,600
7,000
319,200
$ 587
$ 350
$ 1,159
$ 377
$ 522
$ 736
$ 611
$ 274
$ 593
Total Proposed
$ 17.1
11.5%
37.5%
OTHER TRADE AREA /OTHER LOCATIONS
$ 30.2
$ 148.0
20.4%
100.0%
2018
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Existing
$ 121.6
$ 9.9
$ 15.0
$ 9.7
$ 15.7
$ 39.4
$ 13.5
$ 104.2
79.9%
6.5%
9.8%
6.4%
10.3%
25.9%
8.9%
68.4%
Proposed/Planned:
Total Proposed
$ 17.4
11.4%
$ 30.7
$ 152.3
20.1%
100.0%
45.6%
45.0%
45.0%
47.5%
45.0%
50.0%
40.0%
46.7%
37.5%
$ 27.3 49,575
$ 223.4
$ 18.0
$ 27.2
$ 18.6
$ 28.6
$ 78.8
$ 22.5
$ 195.6
368,775
49,800
22,700
47,600
53,000
103,500
35,600
319,200
$ 27.8 49,575
‐1.4%
‐3.8%
‐2.2%
‐2.4%
‐3.5%
‐3.8%
0.4%
‐3.1%
$ 550
$ 606
$ 361
$ 1,198
$ 390
$ 540
$ 761
$ 632
$ 613
1.9%
‐0.5%
1.1%
0.9%
‐0.2%
‐0.5%
0.2%
$ 560
…/Cont'd.
34
Town Of Ajax
SUPERMARKET/GROCERY IMPACT ANALYSIS (Continued)
Sales From TRADE Percent Sales Per AREA Market Plus: TOTAL Square Change Residents Share in Inflow SALES Square Foot from ($Millions) Trade Area(1 Estimate ($Millions) Footage Levels Base Year
2021
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Existing
$ 125.1
$ 10.2
$ 15.4
$ 10.0
$ 16.2
$ 40.5
$ 13.9
$ 107.3
80.0%
6.5%
9.9%
6.4%
10.4%
25.9%
8.9%
68.6%
Proposed/Planned:
Total Proposed
$ 17.8
11.4%
$ 31.2
$ 156.3
20.0%
100.0%
2026
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Existing
$ 128.4
$ 10.4
$ 15.8
$ 10.3
$ 16.6
$ 41.5
$ 14.2
$ 109.8
80.1%
6.5%
9.8%
6.4%
10.4%
25.9%
8.9%
68.6%
Proposed/Planned:
Total Proposed
$ 18.6
11.6%
$ 31.8
$ 160.2
19.9%
100.0%
45.6%
45.0%
45.0%
47.5%
45.0%
50.0%
40.0%
46.7%
37.5%
45.6%
45.0%
45.0%
47.5%
45.0%
50.0%
40.0%
46.7%
37.5%
$ 229.9
$ 18.5
$ 28.0
$ 19.1
$ 29.5
$ 81.1
$ 23.2
$ 201.4
368,775
49,800
22,700
47,600
53,000
103,500
35,600
319,200
$ 28.5 49,575
$ 235.9
$ 19.0
$ 28.7
$ 19.6
$ 30.2
$ 83.0
$ 23.7
$ 206.2
368,775
49,800
22,700
47,600
53,000
103,500
35,600
319,200
$ 29.7 49,575
$ 623
$ 372
$ 1,233
$ 401
$ 556
$ 784
$ 650
$ 631
4.9%
2.4%
4.1%
3.9%
2.7%
2.4%
3.2%
$ 575
$ 640
$ 381
$ 1,262
$ 411
$ 569
$ 802
$ 666
$ 646
7.4%
4.8%
6.6%
6.4%
5.2%
4.8%
5.6%
$ 600
1) Current year estimates based on the Consumer Survey.
35
Town Of Ajax
7 Per Capita Space Analysis In addition to the supermarket, the subject site is planned to include about 69,000 square feet of other
retail and service uses. The range of service uses proposed would be permitted under the Prestige
Employment zoning and could include such uses as restaurants, financial institutions, personal services,
a day care, commercial school, recreation establishments, and office uses. The specific uses and mix of
tenants would evolve during the leasing process.
A per capita space analysis has been undertaken to evaluate the future market opportunity for non-food
store retail (NFSR), liquor/beer/wine (LBW), and service space, Our analysis, which focuses on the Local
Zone (as defined in Section 3 of the report), is intended to recognize the influence of existing and
designated commercial sites located elsewhere in the Local Zone and beyond.
7.1 WARRANTED ADDITIONAL RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE IN THE LOCAL ZONE The following summarizes the methodology and results of our analysis, which is detailed in Figures 7-1
and 7-2. We note that these estimates can only be considered a general guideline.
Column A:
Based on our experience in other similar sized Ontario markets, as well as our review of the existing
retail/service supply situation in the Local Zone and space per capita ratios utilized in the Ajax
Commercial Policy Review, we have estimated the Local Zone residents’ space per capita requirements
for each retail and service category. Overall, we have estimated that Local Zone residents could support
27.5 square feet per capita of NFSR, LBW, and Services space combined.
Column B:
The space per capita ratios are applied to the forecast Local Zone population to provide an estimate of
the total space required by Local Zone residents. Based on the square feet per capita ratios, Local Zone
residents would support an estimated 794,750 square feet of NFSR, LBW, and service space in 2016.
We have also included calculations for 2031 utilizing the same square feet per capita ratios, which yield
896,500 square feet of space supported by Local Zone residents. This would include space supported
locally as well as elsewhere in Ajax and beyond.
Column C:
Target local shares, or the percentage of space that could be supported locally (i.e. in the Local Zone) by
Local Zone residents have been estimated for the various retail and service types evaluated.
The Local Zone target shares have been varied by category and recognize the existing competitive
framework and location of retail and service space outside the Local Zone. For local serving retail and
services (e.g. drug store and personal services), a higher target local share has been utilized, with lower
target shares for comparison goods (e.g. general merchandise, apparel, home furnishings) and services
which could be served regionally.
36
Town Of Ajax
Overall, we have estimated that an average of about 22.3% of the NFSR, LBW and service space
supported by Local Zone residents could be supported in Local Zone retail and service facilities with the
remainder of their needs met outside the Local Zone.
Column D:
The target local shares have been applied to the square feet that could be supported by Local Zone
residents to calculate the supportable space locally by Local Zone residents before the existing effective
competitive space is subtracted.
Column E:
The concept of “effective space” takes into account the fact that only a portion of the existing commercial
space in the Local Zone is supported by residents who live in the Local Zone. For the purposes of our
analysis, we have assumed that about 30% of the existing space in the Local Zone/periphery is supported
by Local Zone residents. This factor recognizes the location of the majority of existing Local Zone space
on the periphery of the Local Zone (e.g. North Harwood Centre, Ajax Marketplace, Nottingham
Marketplace and Westney Crossing). There is currently 55,700 square feet of NFSR space in the Local
Zone/periphery of which we have estimated about 16,700 square feet is supported by Local Zone
residents. For service space, there is currently 182,800 square feet of which we have estimated 54,800
square feet is supported by Local Zone residents.
Column F:
The figures provided in Column F represent the net additional local space required in the Local Zone,
excluding inflow. These estimates have been calculated by subtracting the portion of existing space that
is supported locally (i.e. effective space) from the total local space that could be supported by locally by
Local Zone residents.
Column G:
In Column G, we have estimated inflow factors. The inflow factors generally reflect what could be
achieved in the Local Zone and assume that some sales would be derived from elsewhere in the Trade
Area and beyond given the strategic location of the site at the corner of two arterial roads in Ajax and
proximity to a growing employment area.
Column H:
An estimate of the total space that could be supported in the Local Zone, including inflow from non-Local
Zone residents, has been calculated in Column H. The resulting figures indicate that an estimated
184,100 square feet of additional NFSR, LBW, and service commercial space would be warranted in the
Local Zone by 2016, increasing to 221,500 square feet by 2031 (based on same assumptions as in
2016). Service space requirements in the Local Zone have been estimated at 120,700 square feet in
2016, increasing to 145,900 square feet by 2031. Limited future opportunity would likely be available for
health services space with the recent addition of this space in the 300 Rossland Road East professional
building and space availability.
37
Town Of Ajax
7.2 SUBJECT SITE SHARE The subject site is expect to include about 69,000 square feet of non-food store retail and service space,
with a focus on service space. Based on our analysis, there would be sufficent market support for
additional retail and service space on the subect site to serve the growing population and employment
base in the area. The subject site would meet less than half of the warranted space needs, with
opportunities available at other locations in the Local Zone in the future, including the lease out of vacant
space in 300-338 Rossland Road and 1 Rossland Road West. Other sites located outside the Local
Zone in Ajax could also meet a portion of the future needs identified in the Local Zone.
38
B
795,000
27.5
GRAND TOTAL 22.4%
40.0%
30.0%
50.0%
25.0%
35.0%
50.0%
30.0%
30.0%
34.5%
45.0%
45.0%
10.0%
5.0%
50.0%
5.0%
5.0%
7.5%
11.1%
C
D
177,700
11,600
30,400
14,500
10,900
5,100
21,700
4,400
26,000
124,600
6,500
6,500
8,700
3,600
21,700
3,600
3,600
5,400
46,600
(B X C)
71,500
3,000
9,900
4,400
6,200
300
22,500
1,200
7,300
54,800
0
0
1,200
0
11,000
900
2,200
1,400
16,700
E
106,200
8,600
20,500
10,100
4,700
4,800
‐800
3,200
18,700
69,800
6,500
6,500
7,500
3,600
10,700
2,700
1,400
4,000
29,900
(D‐E)
F
42.3%
40.0%
45.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
42.2%
40.0%
40.0%
45.0%
45.0%
40.0%
45.0%
45.0%
45.0%
43.2%
G
184,100
14,300
37,300
16,800
7,800
8,000
NA
5,300
31,200
120,700
10,800
10,800
13,600
6,500
17,800
4,900
2,500
7,300
52,600
(F/(1‐G))
H
Less Existing Space Supported Net Additional Locally Space Inflow (from other Total Additional (Effective Supported in Trade Area/ Warranted Space in Local Zone
Space) (2
Local Zone
elsewhere) (3
2) Assume 30% effective which recognizes the type and location of existing space, with most of the space on the periphery of the Local Zone. Effective space is an estimate of the space supported by Local Zone residents.
3) urbanMetrics estimates. SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
1) urbanMetrics estimates based on our market experience and review of Ajax CPR estimates.
28,900
101,200
28,900
43,400
14,500
43,400
14,500
86,700
361,500
1.0
3.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.5
0.5
3.0
12.5
SERVICES (as Permitted in Prestige Employment Zone)
Services: Financial Services (including banks & other financial)
Services: Eating & Drinking Establishments
Services: Personal Care Services
Services: Entertainment & Fitness Establishments
Services: Insurance and Real Estate Services
Services: Health Care Services
Services: Other
SUB TOTAL
14,500
14,450
0.5
0.5
86,700
72,300
43,400
72,300
72,300
72,300
419,050
(A X Pop'n)
OTHER RETAIL
Other: Liquor / Beer / Wine
SUB TOTAL
A
3.0
2.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
14.5
28,900
Space Local Zone Total Space Supported SQFT Per Capita Required by Target Local by Local Space Local Zone Zone Capture Zone Requirements (1 Residents
Rate (3
Residents
SELECTED NON FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) NFSR: General Merchandise
NFSR: Building & Outdoor Supply Stores
NFSR: Health and Personal Care Stores
NFSR: Clothing & Accessories Stores
NFSR: Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Stores
NFSR: Miscellaneous Retailers
SUB TOTAL
Local Zone
2016 Population Forecast
Category
LOCAL ZONE ‐ SPACE PER CAPITA ESTIMATES
Town Of Ajax
Figure 7-1: Warranted Additional Space, 2016
39
1.0
3.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.5
0.5
3.0
12.5
27.5
SERVICES (includes Office Space Uses)
Services: Financial Services (including banks & other financial)
Services: Eating & Drinking Establishments
Services: Personal Care Services
Services: Entertainment & Fitness Establishments
Services: Insurance and Real Estate Services
Services: Health Care Services
Services: Other
SUB TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
B
896,500
32,600
114,100
32,600
48,900
16,300
48,900
16,300
97,800
407,500
16,300
16,300
97,800
81,500
48,900
81,500
81,500
81,500
472,700
(A X Pop'n)
22.3%
40.0%
30.0%
50.0%
25.0%
35.0%
50.0%
30.0%
30.0%
34.4%
45.0%
45.0%
10.0%
5.0%
50.0%
5.0%
5.0%
7.5%
11.1%
C
D
200,135
13,000
34,200
16,300
12,200
5,700
24,500
4,900
29,300
140,100
7,335
7,335
9,800
4,100
24,500
4,100
4,100
6,100
52,700
(B X C)
71,500
3,000
9,900
4,400
6,200
300
22,500
1,200
7,300
54,800
0
0
1,200
0
11,000
900
2,200
1,400
16,700
E
F
128,635
10,000
24,300
11,900
6,000
5,400
2,000
3,700
22,000
85,300
7,335
7,335
8,600
4,100
13,500
3,200
1,900
4,700
36,000
(D‐E)
41.9%
40.0%
45.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
40.0%
41.5%
40.0%
39.9%
45.0%
45.0%
40.0%
45.0%
45.0%
45.0%
43.2%
G
H
221,500
16,700
44,200
19,800
10,000
9,000
3,300
6,200
36,700
145,900
12,200
12,200
15,600
7,500
22,500
5,800
3,500
8,500
63,400
(F/(1‐G))
2) Assume 30% effective which recognizes the type and location of existing space, with most of the space on the periphery of the Local Zone. Effective space is an estimate of the space supported by Local Zone residents.
3) urbanMetrics estimates. SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.
1) urbanMetrics estimates based on our market experience and review of Ajax CPR estimates.
0.5
0.5
OTHER RETAIL
Other: Liquor / Beer / Wine
SUB TOTAL
A
3.0
2.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
14.5
32,600
SELECTED NON FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) NFSR: General Merchandise
NFSR: Building & Outdoor Supply Stores
NFSR: Health and Personal Care Stores
NFSR: Clothing & Accessories Stores
NFSR: Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Stores
NFSR: Miscellaneous Retailers
SUB TOTAL
Local Zone
2031 Population Forecast
Category
Space Local Zone Total Space Supported Net Additional SQFT Per Capita Required by Target Local by Local Space Inflow (from other Total Additional Space Local Zone Zone Capture Zone Less Effective Supported in Trade Area/ Warranted Space in Requirements (1 Residents
Rate
Residents
Space
Local Zone
elsewhere)
Local Zone
Town Of Ajax
Figure 7-2: Warranted Additional Space, 2031
40
Town Of Ajax
8 Employment Forecasts Notwithstanding that the Places to Grow Growth Plan includes retail jobs in the employment forecasts for
Durham Region and that retail is defined as a fundamentally important economic activity, the Town of
Ajax has indicated they would like to achieve 37 Prestige Employment jobs per net hectare for the subject
site. Prestige Employment jobs would include those related to the permissions in the Zoning By-Law, as
detailed in Figure 8-1. The proposed commercial development on the subject site is planned to include a
range of retail uses, as well as selection of “Prestige Employment” service commercial type uses, such as
those highlighted in Figure 8-1.
Three potential space scenarios (A, B and C) have been evaluated to determine the number of jobs that
the subject site could generate. These jobs have been divided into “Non-Prestige Employment” (i.e.
retail) and “Prestige Employment” (i.e. services). The jobs per square foot have been based on factors
provided by Watson & Associates to the Town of Ajax (see Figure 8-2). For the “Other Prestige
Employment”, we have assumed that a range of uses could be included, including office type uses, day
care, commercial school, and fitness facilities. Square feet per employment for this category has been
assumed at 285, compared to 265 for the office category factor provided by Watson & Associates.
Based on the potential tenant mix in Scenarios A, B and C, the subject site would provide between 291
and 312 jobs (see Figures 8-3 to 8-5). A portion of these jobs would be “Prestige Employment” jobs,
estimated at between 142 and 168 jobs, which converts to between 37 and 44 jobs per hectare. Some of
these jobs would be provided in second-storey office space. The Prestige Employment jobs would meet
the Town’s requirement of achieving 37 Prestige Employment jobs per net hectare.
41
Town Of Ajax
Figure 8-1: Permitted Uses in Prestige Employment Zone – Zoning By-Law 95-2003
SOURCE: Zoning By-Law 95-2003
42
Town Of Ajax
Figure 8-2: Square Feet Per Job Factors:
AJAX EMPLOYMENT PER SQUARE FOOT
Gross Floor Area Sq. Ft. Per Job
Retail Category
Small Retail Stores (less than 500 square metres/5,382 sq.ft.)
Mid‐Sized Retail Stores (500‐1500 square metres/5,382‐16,146 sq.ft.)
Supermarkets
Restaurants
Financial Services (bank branches, depository institutions & similar)
Personal Services
Office Uses
532
781
499
206
241
353
265
SOURCE: Watson & Associates as provided by the Town of Ajax (email April 17, 2017 from Gary Muller).
Figure 8-3: Scenario A – Employment Forecast
SCENARIO A:
SUBJECT SITE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Development Lot Area = 3.86± hectares
Gross Floor Area Per Job Retail & Service Category
GLA (SQFT) (1
(2
Total Employment
Employees Per Hectare
NON‐PRESTIGE EMPLOYMENT USE:
75,090
525
143
37
FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR)
Supermarket (excluding mechanical mezzanine)
NON‐FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)
Mid‐Size Retail Stores
Small Retail Stores / Convenience Stores
49,575
49,575
25,515
18,515
7,000
499
499
583
532
781
99
99
44
35
9
26
26
11
9
2
PRESTIGE EMPLOYMENT USE:
43,500
258
168
44
SERVICES
Food Services (restaurants‐sit down, restaurants‐quick serve, restaurants‐drive thru)
Financial Institutions (e.g. banks, credit unions)
Personal Services (e.g. dry cleaners, hair/tanning salons, weight loss clinics)
Other Prestige Employment (3
TOTAL
43,500
10,500
9,500
6,500
17,000
118,590
258
206
241
353
285
381
168
51
39
18
60
312
44
13
10
5
15
81
1) urbanMetrics space distribution estimates based on a the Preliminary Concept Plan (May 29, 2014).
2) Based on table prepared by Watson & Associates, as provided by the Town of Ajax in email dated April 17, 2014 from Gary Muller.
3) Includes uses such as corporate offices, insurance, real estate, professional, scientific/technical services, legal, accounting, medical clinic, healthcare services, veternary clinics, commercial schools, day care facilities, commercial fitness centres, studios, etc. 43
Town Of Ajax
Figure 8-4: Scenario B – Employment Forecast
SCENARIO B:
Gross Floor Area Per Job Retail & Service Category
GLA (SQFT) (1
(2
Total Employment
81,390
545
149
39
49,575
49,575
31,815
15,515
16,300
499
499
636
532
781
99
99
50
29
21
26
26
13
8
5
37,200
262
142
37
SERVICES
Personal Services (e.g. dry cleaners, couriers, hair/tanning salons, weight loss clinics)
TOTAL
37,200
10,350
3,000
6,850
17,000
118,590
262
206
241
353
285
407
142
50
12
19
60
291
37
13
3
5
15
75
3) Includes uses such as corporate offices, insurance, real estate, professional, scientific/technical services, legal, accounting, medical clinic, healthcare services, veternary clinics, commercial schools, day care facilities, commercial fitness centres, studios, etc. Figure 8-5: Scenario C – Employment Forecast
SCENARIO C:
Retail & Service Category
GLA (SQFT) (1
Gross Floor Area Per Total Employment
Job (2
80,590
560
144
37
49,575
49,575
31,015
8,000
23,015
499
499
697
532
781
99
99
45
15
29
26
26
12
4
8
38,000
257
148
38
SERVICES
Personal Services (e.g. dry cleaners, hair/tanning salons, weight loss clinics)
TOTAL
38,000
12,250
3,000
5,750
17,000
118,590
257
206
241
353
285
407
148
59
12
16
60
292
38
15
3
4
15
76
3) Includes uses such as corporate offices, insurance, real estate, professional, scientific/technical services, legal, accounting, medical clinic, healthcare services, veternary clinics, commercial schools, day care facilities, commercial fitness centres, studios, etc. 44
Town Of Ajax
Appendix A – Licence Plate Survey urbanMetrics inc. conducted licence plate surveys at two existing supermarkets located in Ajax along
Taunton Road. These surveys were conducted over a three day period in May 2014 at the following
locations:

Sobeys in the Meadow Ridge Plaza

Metro in the Somerset Plaza.
The surveys at each location consisted of the random recording of the licence plate numbers of selected
vehicles within the parking area of the particular store during the survey period. These licence plate
numbers were then submitted to the Ontario Ministry of Transportation, which provided the Dissemination
Area (DA) of the registered owner of each surveyed vehicle as well as three digit Forward Sortation Area
(FSA) for plates with no corresponding DA. DAs are the smallest level of geography identified by
Statistics Canada and represent the most detailed level of data available from the Ministry of
Transportation.
The results of the two licence plate surveys are illustrates in Figures A-1 and A-2.The survey data
includes an aggregation of data based on Planning Areas within Trade Area delineated for the proposed
development at the subject site.
A licence plate survey can be used to observe the pattern of automobile traffic generated by a retail
location and thereby estimate its general customer distribution. Although a licence plate survey can be a
useful tool in providing an indication of the market draw of a retail location, it has some limitations:

Since only vehicles are surveyed, the results do not account for pedestrian traffic or customers
arriving by other means;

Licence plate data do not reflect actual expenditures;

The user of a surveyed vehicle may not necessarily be the registered owner of that vehicle (e.g.
rented cars); and,

The registered owner of a surveyed vehicle may have changed their address, but may not have
notified the Ministry of Transportation of the change.
Despite these limitations, experience has shown that the customer distribution patterns obtained from
licence plate surveys can provide a useful tool to estimate patterns of market attraction, particularly when
combined with other tools such as retail inventories, consumer expenditure surveys and market
knowledge.
Based on the results of the licence plate survey, the Sobeys in the Meadow Ridge Plaza obtains about
46.3% of its customers from the Trade Area, with inflow calculated at 53.7% from outside the Trade Area.
For the purposes of our analysis we have reduced the inflow to 45% to account for any walk-in sales and
other potential issues as noted above. For the Somerset Metro, this store obtains about 44.4% of its
customers from the Trade Area, with inflow calculated at 55.6%. Again, for the purposes of our analysis
we have reduced the inflow to 47.5%.
45
Town Of Ajax
Figure A-1: Meadow Ridge Sobeys Licence Plate Survey
46
Town Of Ajax
Figure A-1: Somerset Metro Licence Plate Survey
47
Town Of Ajax
Appendix B – Local Zone Inventory urbanMetrics inc. conducted an inventory of all existing food store retail (“FSR”) facilities in the Trade
Area in May 2014. This information has been included in Section 4 of the report. In addition,
urbanMetrics also inventoried all NFSR, service facilities and vacant space in the defined Local Zone.
Figure B-1 presents the detailed results of the Local Zone inventory by Planning Area, listing the store
name, address, NAICS category and gross leasable area occupied by each store.
A complete listing and description of the NAICS trade groups and sub-categories can be found in
Appendix E.
Figure B-1: Local Zone NFSR and Service Space
Sq. Ft.
Type
NFSR
Area
NAICS Description
NFSR: Clothing Stores
NFSR: Clothing Stores Total
NFSR: Computer & Software Stores
NFSR: Computer & Software Stores Total
NFSR: Home Electronics & Appliance Stores
NFSR: Home Electronics & Appliance Stores Total
NFSR: Home Furnishings Stores
NFSR: Home Furnishings Stores Total
NFSR: Miscellaneous Store Retailers
NFSR: Miscellaneous Store Retailers Total
NFSR: Other General Merchandise Stores
NFSR: Other General Merchandise Stores Total
NFSR: Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores
North Harwood Centre
CompuSac Electronics
Wind Mobile
Fairytale Nursery Furniture
BABYRAMA Baby Store
Ajax Marketplace
The Dollar Store Plus
300-338 Rossland Road
Ajax Marketplace
IDA
PharmaSave - One Health
Pharma Plus
AJAX Discount Pharmacy
Shoppers Drug Mart
NFSR: Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores Total
NFSR: Shoe, Clothing Accessories & Jewellery Stores
NFSR: Shoe, Clothing Accessories & Jewellery Stores Total
NFSR Total
Services
Store Name
Stylin Tots
Trendy Maternity
1
4,400
4,400
4,800
4,800
4,000
4,000
2,000
10,900
1,400
18,500
18,500
Siva's Jewellery
Services: Banks/Credit Unions Total
Services: Cultural, Entertainment & Recreation
Services: Cultural, Entertainment & Recreation Total
Services: Food Services
Ajax Marketplace
BMO
TD Canada Trust
Goodlife Fitness
Big Momma's House
King Wok
Pizza Nova
Popeyes
Extreme Pita
Pizza Pizza
Shamrock Burger
Subway
Sunset Grill
Symposium Café
Tim Horton's
Yozens Frozen Yogourt
Tim Horton's
Chutney Bistro
House of Wong
Little Ceasars
Travel the World Café Bistro
Bellagio Pizza
989 Harwood Avenue North
Ajax Marketplace
Services: Food Services Total
3
1,300
1,300
19,800
Services: Banks/Credit Unions
2
700
700
1,400
1,500
1,500
3,400
1,500
1,500
17,000
5,100
5,100
10,900
14,900
3,500
3,500
20,700
20,700
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,600
2,400
1,800
1,800
1,700
800
1,500
1,300
1,300
17,300
4,300
4 Grand Total
700
700
1,400
1,500
1,500
1,300
1,300
4,400
4,400
4,800
4,800
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
10,900
1,400
18,500
4,000
36,800
1,500
1,500
4,000
55,700
3,500
5,100
8,600
20,700
20,700
2,600
2,600
1,100
1,100
1,700
1,700
2,300
2,300
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,600
2,400
1,800
2,500
2,500
1,800
1,700
800
1,500
1,300
10,200
33,100
48
Town Of Ajax
Sq. Ft.
Type
Area
NAICS Description
Services: Health Care
Ajax Marketplace
Westney Crossing
Services: Health Care Total
Services: Insurance & Real Estate
Services: Insurance & Real Estate Total
Services: Other Financial
Services: Other Financial Total
Services: Personal & Household Goods Repair & Mainte 300-338 Rossland Road
Services: Personal & Household Goods Repair & Maintenance Total
Services: Personal Care
Ajax Marketplace
Westney Crossing
Services: Personal Care Total
Westney Crossing
Services: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Total
Services: Selected Educational Services
Services: Selected Educational Services Total
Services: Social Services
Store Name
Appletree Medical Centre
Harwood Dental Group
Harwood Foot Clinic
Rossland Physio
Medical Offices
Dr. Newton & Kerbel
North Harwood Dental
Vision + Health
ZMC Medical
Nottingham Dental
Unique Family Chiropractic
Westney North Dental Care
VACANT Total
VACANT Total
Grand Total
3
57,300
4,800
1,400
1,500
1,400
1,300
900
1,500
3,700
Royal Properties & Mortgages
61,600
4,800
1,400
1,400
3,900
3,900
Mr. Lube
AZ Dry Cleaner
Priya's Hair Fashions
ProSpa
Jenny's Nails & Spa
Infinity Nails & Spa
Medoro Hair Salons
Sketchley Cleaners
Georgia's Salon
Holistic Spa & Laser
Jasmine Nails & Spa
A Kut Above Salon
Harwood Pet Hospital
LEDIM Developments Ltd.
Ajax North Pet Hospital
Ajax Marketplace
Westney Crossing
Best Driving School
Young Drivers
Oxford Learning Centre
IQ Brainers Academy
Smart Start Learning
Westney Crossing
Tender Years Child Care Centre
SKD Child Care Centre
Smart Start Childcare
Vacant (Professional Offices)
Vacant
Vacant (Professional Offices)
Vacant
Vacant
Vacant
Ajax Marketplace
2
Bethel Insurance
Services: Social Services Total
Services Total
VACANT
VACANT
1
1,800
1,100
1,100
600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,300
2,600
4,700
2,800
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,500
1,200
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
6,500
3,400
4,100
4,100
9,900
19,700 122,500
1,200
16,600
12,300
20,000
1,600
6,000
3,900
3,900 38,300
3,900 38,300
43,400 177,800
1,600
1,600
33,100
4 Grand Total
1,600
1,600
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
57,300
4,800
1,400
1,500
1,400
1,300
900
1,500
4,900
75,000
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,400
1,400
3,900
3,900
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
2,300
2,300
1,800
1,100
1,100
600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,300
4,500
14,600
1,100
1,100
1,500
1,400
1,100
4,000
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,200
1,500
1,500
2,200
6,400
6,500
3,400
4,100
14,000
24,000
182,800
5,800
5,800
12,300
20,000
1,600
6,000
3,900
5,800
49,600
5,800
49,600
33,800
288,100
Source: urbanMetrics, May 2014
49
Town Of Ajax
Appendix C: Telephone Survey A consumer expenditure survey of 400 residents was conducted by telephone in the Trade Area in May
2014. In order to determine the current shopping patterns of residents living in the Trade Area, survey
respondents were asked to identify their recent expenditures at general merchandise stores; health and
personal care stores; supermarkets and grocery stores; and other food stores. The survey also included
general questions used to identify the demographic characteristics of each respondent.
The survey program was designed by urbanMetrics inc. The interviews were conducted by Telepoll
Canada Inc., an independent research company. The results of the survey were codes, tabulated and
analyzed by urbanMetrics.
The four Planning Areas in the Trade Area were utilized as the sample areas with the distribution based
on population. Figures C-1 to C-7 summarize the results of the survey. The survey questionnaire is
presented in Figure C-8.
Figures C-1 and C-2 detail Trade Area residents’ expenditures made in general merchandise stores, and
health and personal care stores respectively. Figure C-3 combines the results from Figures C-1 (general
merchandise) and C-2 (health and personal care) to estimate the percentage of NFSR expenditures that
are food and grocery related. We have also estimated the percentage of total food and grocery
merchandise (FSR plus the food and grocery portion of NFSR) that is made in NFSR stores. We have
estimated that about 19% of Trade Area residents’ food and grocery purchases are made in NFSR
stores. This is consistent with Statistics Canada commodity statistics which indicate that about 19% of
food and grocery purchases are made in Health & Beauty and General Merchandise stores. This
information has been utilized as a general guide in estimating future sales transfers from the non-food
store retail (NFSR) category to the FSR category.
Figures C-4 and C-5 summarize the survey residents’ expenditures for supermarket and grocery; and
convenience and specialty food stores, respectively. The survey expenditures have been weighted by
the expenditure potential in each sampling area (i.e. Planning Areas 1 to 4) to calculate the overall
weighting of expenditures for the total Trade Area.
Figure C-6 illustrates the distribution of food store spending reported by survey respondents. As shown,
the reported distribution is heavily weighted towards supermarkets and grocery stores. In our experience,
this over-weighting of the distribution towards supermarkets and grocery stores is due to the underreporting of convenience and specialty food store spending that is typical in such surveys. This is caused
by survey respondents’ inability to recall their numerous small expenditures at convenience and specialty
food store in comparison to their ability to recall fewer large expenditures at supermarkets and grocery
stores. In order to correct this imbalance, we have modified the expenditure distribution based on our
review of the provincial distribution (based on Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade statistics), and our
inventory of food store space in the Trade Area, to estimate the appropriate distribution for each zone of
the Trade Area.
50
Town Of Ajax
The survey results have been utilized to estimate the market shares and sales performance of existing
supermarkets and grocery stores in the Trade Area and to establish the degree of outflow of Trade Area
residents’ expenditures to stores located outside the Trade Area.
Figure C-1: General Merchandise Store Expenditures
QUESTION 1: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE EXPENDITURES
Planning Area
1
Food & Grocery Expenditures
Total Expenditures
Store
Total
2
% of Total
Total Trade Area
Total Outside Trade Area
Total
Food & Grocery Purchases as a % of $25,188
$12,124
67.5%
32.5%
$37,312
100.0%
Average Expenditure
$455
3
% of Total
Total
76.5%
23.5%
$20,192
$985
$12,883 100.0% $48,256 100.0%
$21,177
Total
$11,903
$980
% of Total
Total Expenditures
Total
92.4% $36,927
7.6% $11,329
35%
$157
44%
$202
$460
% of Total
Total Expenditures
4
% of Total
Total
75.3%
24.7%
$24,915
$2,125
100.0% $64,628 100.0%
$27,040
Total
95.3% $48,649
4.7% $15,979
$380
% of Total
Total Expenditures
Total
92.1% $14,981
7.9% $1,700
% of Total
Total
89.8%
10.2%
$7,492
$200
100.0% $16,681 100.0%
42%
$159
$388
% of Total
97.4%
2.6%
$7,692 100.0%
46%
$179
General merchandise includes Costco, department stores, Canadian Tire, dollars stores, variety stores and other general merchandise stores.
Figure C-2: Health & Personal Care Store Expenditures
QUESTION 2: HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORE EXPENDITURES
Planning Area
1
Location
Total Trade Area
Outside Trade Area
Total
Food & Grocery Purchases as a % of Total
Average Expenditure
3
Total Food & Grocery Total Food & Grocery Total Food & Grocery Expenditures
Expenditures
Expenditures
Expenditures
Expenditures
Expenditures
% of % of % of % of % of % of Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
$6,475 80.1% $1,992 91.8% $10,492 61.0% $1,434 86.1% $16,955 86.4% $3,119 87.1%
$1,610 19.9%
$178
8.2% $6,722 39.0%
$232 13.9% $2,669 13.6%
$460 12.9%
4
Total Food & Grocery Expenditures
Expenditures
% of % of Total
Total
Total
Total
$1,631 80.6%
$400 95.0%
$392 19.4%
$21
5.0%
$8,085 100.0%
$2,023 100.0%
$99
2
$2,170 100.0% $17,214 100.0%
27%
$26
$164
$1,666 100.0% $19,624 100.0%
10%
$16
$115
$3,579 100.0%
18%
$21
$47
$421 100.0%
21%
$10
51
Town Of Ajax
Figure C-3: Estimated Food and Grocery Merchandise Share of NFSR and Total Food & Grocery
ESTIMATED FOOD AND GROCERY MERCHANDISE SHARE OF NFSR
NFSR ($Millions) (1
General Merchandise (2
General Merchandse ($Millions)
Food & Grocery Related (3
Food & Grocery Related ($Millions)
1
$71.8
16.8%
$12.1
35%
$4.2
Planning Area
2
3
$83.6
$172.9
16.8%
16.8%
$14.0
$29.0
44%
42%
$6.2
$12.2
Health & Personal Care (2
Health & Personal Care ($Millions)
Food & Grocery Related (3
Food & Grocery Related ($Millions)
14.9%
$10.7
27%
$2.9
14.9%
$12.5
10%
$1.2
14.9%
$25.8
18%
$4.6
14.9%
$6.8
21%
$1.4
$7.1
9.9%
$7.4
8.9%
$16.8
9.7%
$5.0
10.9%
TOTAL Food & Grocery Related
% of TOTAL NFSR
TOTAL FSR
Total NFSR Food & Grocery
TOTAL Food & Grocery
% NFSR Food & Grocery of TOTAL
4
TOTAL
$45.9
$374.2
16.8%
$7.7
$62.9
46%
$3.5
$26.1
$55.8
$10.2
$36.4
9.7%
$153.9
$36.4
$190.2
19%
1) As calculated in Section 6 of report.
2) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade 2013, Ontario distribution.
3) From the telephone consumer survey.
52
Town Of Ajax
Figure C-4: Supermarket and Grocery Store Expenditures
QUESTION 4: SUPERMARKET AND GROCERY STORE EXPENDITURES
Planning Area
1
Store
Total
Sobeys ‐ 1935 Ravenscroft Road
No Frills ‐ 87 Williamson Drive West
Metro ‐ 1989 Salem Road North
Sobeys ‐ 260 Kingston Road
Real Canadian Superstore ‐ 30 Kingston Road West
Food Basics ‐ 473 Westney Road North
Lucky Market Grocery Store ‐ Harwood South
Total Trade Area
Sals Grocery Store ‐ 120 Harwood Avenue
Sobeys – Other Ajax
No Frills – Other Ajax
Food Basics – Other Ajax
No Frills ‐ 105 Bayly Street West
Food Basics ‐ 280 Harwood Avenue South
Subtotal ‐ Other Ajax
No Frills – Whitby
Real Canadian Superstore – Whitby
Freshco – Whitby
All Other Supermarkets – Whitby
Subtotal ‐ Whitby
Sobeys – Pickering
No Frills – Pickering
Real Canadian Superstore – Pickering
Metro – Pickering
Loblaws – Pickering
Freshco – Pickering
All Other Supermarkets – Pickering
Subtotal ‐ Pickering
No Frills ‐ Other Durham Region
Freshco – Other Durham Region
Subtotal ‐ Other Durham Region
Total Durham Region
No Frills – All Other Locations
Real Canadian Superstore – All Other Locations
Metro – All Other Locations
Food Basics – All Other Locations
Loblaws – All Other Locations
Longos – All Other Locations
Freshco – All Other Locations
Foodland – All Other Locations
Whole Foods – All Other Locations
TT – All Other Locations
All Other Supermarkets – All Other Locations
Total All Other Locations
Total
Average Expenditure
$3,387
$7,855
$1,570
$1,330
$9,760
$1,905
$0
$25,807
$280
$0
$0
$1,110
$170
$1,560
$300
$0
$0
$30
$330
$0
$660
$0
$0
$0
$300
$590
$1,550
$0
$0
$0
$3,440
$0
$0
$400
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$400
$3,840
$29,647
$362
2
% of Total
11.4%
26.5%
5.3%
4.5%
32.9%
6.4%
0.0%
87.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.7%
0.6%
5.3%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
1.1%
0.0%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
5.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
11.6%
0.0%
0.0%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.3%
13.0%
100.0%
Total
$1,782
$4,015
$6,220
$640
$7,665
$3,594
$0
$23,916
$210
$0
$0
$0
$4,240
$1,470
$5,920
$220
$2,030
$50
$0
$2,300
$0
$120
$0
$0
$0
$65
$310
$495
$0
$0
$0
$8,715
$300
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$20
$0
$100
$400
$300
$1,120
$9,835
$33,751
$321
3
% of Total
5.3%
11.9%
18.4%
1.9%
22.7%
10.6%
0.0%
70.9%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
12.6%
4.4%
17.5%
0.7%
6.0%
0.1%
0.0%
6.8%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.9%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
25.8%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.3%
1.2%
0.9%
3.3%
29.1%
100.0%
Total
$4,465
$3,765
$1,760
$10,223
$16,389
$7,955
$800
$45,357
$345
$100
$80
$70
$4,772
$980
$6,347
$630
$0
$600
$0
$1,230
$730
$3,335
$0
$40
$2,415
$726
$415
$7,661
$700
$20
$720
$15,958
$0
$200
$225
$150
$150
$65
$0
$100
$0
$60
$0
$950
$16,908
$62,265
$366
4
% of Total
7.2%
6.0%
2.8%
16.4%
26.3%
12.8%
1.3%
72.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
7.7%
1.6%
10.2%
1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.2%
5.4%
0.0%
0.1%
3.9%
1.2%
0.7%
12.3%
1.1%
0.0%
1.2%
25.6%
0.0%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
1.5%
27.2%
100.0%
Total
$450
$540
$615
$2,435
$5,195
$440
$100
$9,775
$0
$35
$0
$0
$421
$220
$676
$50
$100
$0
$0
$150
$0
$195
$0
$0
$0
$0
$130
$325
$0
$0
$0
$1,151
$11
$50
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$61
$1,212
$10,987
$256
% of Total
4.1%
4.9%
5.6%
22.2%
47.3%
4.0%
0.9%
89.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
2.0%
6.2%
0.5%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.5%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
11.0%
100.0%
53
Town Of Ajax
QUESTION 4: SUPERMARKET AND GROCERY STORE EXPENDITURES ($Millions)
2013 Dollars
Store
Sobeys ‐ 1935 Ravenscroft Road
No Frills ‐ 87 Williamson Drive West
Metro ‐ 1989 Salem Road North
Sobeys ‐ 260 Kingston Road
Real Canadian Superstore ‐ 30 Kingston Road West
Food Basics ‐ 473 Westney Road North
Lucky Market Grocery Store ‐ Harwood South
Total Trade Area
Sals Grocery Store ‐ 120 Harwood Avenue
Sobeys – Other Ajax
No Frills – Other Ajax
Food Basics – Other Ajax
No Frills ‐ 105 Bayly Street West
Food Basics ‐ 280 Harwood Avenue South
Subtotal ‐ Other Ajax
No Frills – Whitby
Real Canadian Superstore – Whitby
Freshco – Whitby
All Other Supermarkets – Whitby
Subtotal ‐ Whitby
Sobeys – Pickering
No Frills – Pickering
Real Canadian Superstore – Pickering
Metro – Pickering
Loblaws – Pickering
Freshco – Pickering
All Other Supermarkets – Pickering
Subtotal ‐ Pickering
No Frills ‐ Other Durham Region
Freshco – Other Durham Region
Subtotal ‐ Other Durham Region
Total Durham Region
No Frills – All Other Locations
Real Canadian Superstore – All Other Locations
Metro – All Other Locations
Food Basics – All Other Locations
Loblaws – All Other Locations
Longos – All Other Locations
Freshco – All Other Locations
Foodland – All Other Locations
Whole Foods – All Other Locations
TT – All Other Locations
All Other Supermarkets – All Other Locations
Total All Other Locations
Total
Planning Area
1
2
3
4
$Millions
$Millions
$Millions
$Millions
$2.9
$6.8
$1.4
$1.2
$8.5
$1.7
$0.0
$22.5
$0.2
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$1.0
$0.1
$1.4
$0.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$0.0
$0.6
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$0.5
$1.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$3.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$3.3
$25.8
$1.6
$3.6
$5.6
$0.6
$6.9
$3.2
$0.0
$21.5
$0.2
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$3.8
$1.3
$5.3
$0.2
$1.8
$0.0
$0.0
$2.1
$0.0
$0.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.1
$0.3
$0.4
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$7.8
$0.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.1
$0.4
$0.3
$1.0
$8.8
$30.4
$4.5
$3.8
$1.8
$10.3
$16.6
$8.0
$0.8
$45.8
$0.3
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$4.8
$1.0
$6.4
$0.6
$0.0
$0.6
$0.0
$1.2
$0.7
$3.4
$0.0
$0.0
$2.4
$0.7
$0.4
$7.7
$0.7
$0.0
$0.7
$16.1
$0.0
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
$0.1
$0.0
$0.1
$0.0
$1.0
$17.1
$62.9
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$3.5
$7.5
$0.6
$0.1
$14.2
$0.0
$0.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.6
$0.3
$1.0
$0.1
$0.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.2
$0.0
$0.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.2
$0.5
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$1.7
$0.0
$0.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.1
$1.8
$15.9
TOTAL
$Millions % of Total
$9.7
$15.0
$9.6
$15.6
$39.5
$13.6
$1.0
$104.0
$0.8
$0.2
$0.1
$0.1
$10.2
$2.8
$14.1
$1.2
$2.0
$0.7
$0.0
$3.8
$0.7
$4.3
$0.0
$0.0
$2.4
$1.1
$1.4
$10.0
$0.7
$0.0
$0.7
$28.6
$0.3
$0.3
$0.6
$0.2
$0.2
$0.1
$0.0
$0.1
$0.1
$0.4
$0.3
$2.4
$31.0
$135.0
7.2%
11.1%
7.1%
11.5%
29.2%
10.0%
0.7%
77.0%
0.6%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
7.6%
2.1%
10.4%
0.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.0%
2.8%
0.5%
3.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
0.8%
1.0%
7.4%
0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
21.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
1.8%
23.0%
100.0%
Based on the FSR distribution in C-6. See Section 6 for FSR calculations.
54
Town Of Ajax
Figure C-5: Convenience and Specialty Food Store Expenditures
QUESTION 5: CONVENIENCE AND SPECIALTY FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES
Planning Area
1
Location
Total Trade Area
Total
Average Expenditure
2
Total
% of Total
$908
33.6%
$1,795
66.4%
$2,703
100.0%
$33
3
Total
% of Total
$1,425
47.9%
$1,551
52.1%
$2,976
100.0%
$18
Total
% of Total
$965
33.7%
$1,895
66.3%
$2,860
100.0%
$27
4
Total
% of Total
$15
1.8%
$820
98.2%
$835
100.0%
$19
QUESTION 5: CONVENIENCE AND SPECIALTY FOOD ($Millions)
2013 Dollars
Planning Area
2
3
1
Store
$Millions
Total Trade Area
Total
$Millions
$1.5
$3.0
$4.6
4
$Millions
$1.7
$3.3
$4.9
$3.3
$3.6
$7.0
$Millions
TOTAL
$Millions % of Total
$0.0
$2.3
$2.4
$6.6
$12.3
$18.9
34.9%
65.1%
100.0%
Not calibrated. Based on the FSR distribution in C-6. See Section 6 for FSR calculations.
Figure C-6: Distribution of FSR Expenditures
DISTRIBUTION OF FSR EXPENDITURES
Planning Area
1
Type
Convenience & Specialty Food
Total FSR
2
Total
% of Total
$2,703
8.4%
$29,647
91.6%
$32,350
100.0%
Total
% of Total
$2,860
7.8%
$33,751
92.2%
$36,611
100.0%
3
Total
% of Total
$2,976
4.6%
$62,265
95.4%
$65,241
100.0%
4
Total
% of Total
$835
7.1%
$10,987
92.9%
$11,822
100.0%
CALIBRATED ‐ ESTIMATED REVISED DISTRIBUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR UNDER‐REPORTING IN CONVENIENCE/SPECIALTY:
TOTAL
15.0%
85.0%
100.0%
14.0%
86.0%
100.0%
10.0%
90.0%
100.0%
13.0%
87.0%
100.0%
PROVINCIAL AVERAGE, 2013 (Statistics Canada, Retail Trade)
TOTAL
86.3%
13.7%
100.0%
55
Town Of Ajax
Figure C-7: Trade Area Respondent Profile
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
RESPONDENT AGE
Age
Total
1.5%
10.8%
28.0%
30.8%
18.8%
9.8%
0.5%
100.0%
Under 25
25‐34
35‐44
45‐54
55‐64
65 and over
Refused
Total
Household Size
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
n/a
Total
Total
8.3%
17.0%
24.0%
31.5%
12.0%
3.0%
2.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.8%
100.0%
GENDER
Average PPH
3.47
Gender
Male
Female
Total
Total
31.3%
68.8%
100.0%
56
Town Of Ajax
Figure C-8: Survey
AJAX CONSUMER TELEPHONE SURVEY
NO.
Interviewer:
Verified by:
Date of Interview:
Good ________________. My name is ____________________ of Telepoll, a market research company. We are conducting a survey of people's shopping habits and I would like
to ask you a few questions. I assure you we are not selling anything.
A.
Are you over the age of 18 and the primary shopper in your home?
YES: GO TO QUESTION B.
NO: ASK FOR SOMEONE WHO IS AND RE‐INTRODUCE. IF NO ONE MEETING THE CRITERIA IS AVAILABLE, TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY.
B.
In the last MONTH, have you done any food and grocery shopping whatsoever?
YES: GO TO QUESTION C.
NO: TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY.
C.
INTERVIEWER: Record the appropriate SAMPLING AREA corresponding to the respondent's location. (SEE MAP)
REFER TO MAP FOR DETAILED BOUNDARIES. CHECK THEY LIVE IN DEFINED SAMPLING AREA
1
2
3
4
Interviewer: Please Watch Quota
82
105
170
43
Zone 1 ‐ South of Taunton; East of Church; North of Rossland; West of Old Harwood
Zone 2 ‐ South of Taunton; East of Old Harwood; North of Rossland; West of Audley
Zone 3 ‐ South of Rossland; East of Bunting Court/Trans‐Canada Trail; North of Kingston; West of Old Harwood
Zone 4 ‐ South of Rossland; East of Old Harwood; North of Kingston; West of Audley
INTERVIEWER: Please record data below and continue with survey
Phone Number:
Postal Code [6 digits]:
Time Started:
am / pm
Time Finished:
am / pm
INTERVIEWER: Please ensure that information is complete, then proceed to Question 1a.
1 a) In the past MONTH, have you shopped in a GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE such as Sears, Hudson's Bay, Target, Walmart, Canadian Tire, Costco, Giant Tiger, a dollar store or variety store?
Yes
No
................ 1
................ 2
[GO TO QUESTION [SKIP TO QUESTION 1 b)]
2 a)]
1 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located?
1 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store in total?
ASK THESE QUESTIONS TOGETHER
[If answered Costco, Target, Walmart or Giant Tiger for Question 1b), proceed to Question 1d), otherwise proceed to Question 1e).]
1 d) And how much of this was spent on food and grocery items that you would typically find in a supermarket?
1 b)
Name of Store
Target
Target
Target
Walmart
Walmart
Walmart
Sears
Sears
Hudson's Bay
Giant Tiger
Giant Tiger
Giant Tiger
Costco
Costco
Costco
Other (SPECIFY)
1 b)
Location
Shopping Centre / Street Location (Community)
Riocan Durham Centre / 100 Kingston Road East (Ajax)
330 Taunton Road East (Whitby)
Pickering Town Centre / 1355 Kingston Road (Pickering)
270 Kingston Road East (Ajax)
SmartCentres / 1899 Brock Road (Pickering)
4100 Bladwin Street South (Whitby)
Oshawa Shopping Centre / 419 King Street West (Oshawa)
570 Westney Road South (Ajax)
601 Dundas Street West (Whitby)
250 Taunton Road East (Oshawa)
130 Ritson Road North (Oshawa)
65 Kirkham Drive (Markham)
Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1 c)
Amount Spent in Total
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
1 d)
Amount Spent on Food
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
1 e) Have you shopped at any other GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 1b) TO 1d) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO QUESTION 2a).
57
Town Of Ajax
2 a) In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at a PHARMACY which sells food products, such as Shoppers Drug Mart or Rexall Pharma Plus?
Yes
No
................ 1
................ 2
3 a)]
2 d) And how much of this was spent on items that you would normally find in a supermarket,
such as food and groceries?
2 b)
Name of Store
Shoppers Drug Mart
Shoppers Drug Mart
Shoppers Drug Mart
Shoppers Drug Mart
Shoppers Drug Mart
Rexall Pharma Plus
Rexall Pharma Plus
Rexall Pharma Plus
Other (SPECIFY)
2 b)
Location
Harwood Plaza / 314 Harwood Avenue South (Ajax)
Westney Heights Plaza / 15 Westney Road North (Ajax)
95 Williamson Drive West (Ajax)
1971 Salem Road North (Ajax)
240 Harwood Avenue South (Ajax)
Cloveridge Mall / 955 Westney Road South (Ajax)
475 Westney Road North (Ajax)
Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2 c)
Amount Spent in Total
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
2 d)
Amount Spent on Food
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
$
.00
2 e) Have you shopped at any other PHARMACY which sells food products?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 2b) TO 2d) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO QUESTION 3a).
3 a) In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at any other PHARMACIES OR PERSONAL CARE STORES including optical, nutrition, beauty supply, cosmetic, and health/medical equipment stores?
Yes
No
................ 1
................ 2
4 a)]
3 b)
Name of Store
Shoppers Home Health Care
IDA
IDA
IDA
Guardian
Pharmasave
Health‐Rite Pharmacy
Medical Place Pharmacy
Heritage Market Pharmacy
Pickering Village Pharmacy
Health Plus Nutrition Centre
GNC
Kearns Optical
Ajax Optical
Ajax Optical
Hakim Optical
Hakim Optical
Popeye's Supplements
Other (SPECIFY)
3 b)
Location
260 Kingston Road West (Ajax)
1 Rossland Road West (Ajax)
15 Wesney Road North (Ajax)
59 Old Kingston Road (Ajax)
38 Church Street (Ajax)
300 Rossland Road East (Ajax)
75 Bayly Street West (Ajax)
59 Old Kingston Road (Ajax)
Durham Centre / 135 Harwood Avenue (Ajax)
145 Kingston Road (Ajax)
1949 Ravenscroft Road (Ajax)
Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3 c)
Amount Spent
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
3 e) Have you shopped at any other PHARMACIES OR PERSONAL CARE STORES in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 3b) AND 3c) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO QUESTION 4a).
58
Town Of Ajax
4 a) Excluding any shopping at general merchandise stores, in just the past MONTH, have you shopped at a SUPERMARKET or GROCERY STORE?
Yes
No
................ 1
................ 2
5 a)]
4 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store?
4 b)
Name of Store
Sobeys
Sobeys
No Frills
No Frills
Real Canadian Superstore
Metro
Food Basics
Food Basics
Sal's Grocery Store
Other (SPECIFY)
4 b)
Location
87 Williamson Drive West (Ajax)
1989 Salem Road North (Ajax)
120 Harwood Avenue (Ajax)
Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4 c)
Amount Spent
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
4 d) Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKET or GROCERY STORE in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 4b) AND 4c) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO QUESTION 5a).
5 a) In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at any OTHER FOOD STORE such as a jug milk store, bakery, deli, meat shop, frozen food store, convenience food store, candy shop or fruit market?
Yes
No
................ 1
................ 2
6 a)]
5 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store?
5 b)
Name of Store
Dam Foods
Almost Perfect Frozen Foods
M&M Meat Shops
M&M Meat Shops
Alhamzah Grocers & Halal Meat
Balady Middle Eastern Convenience Store
Ajax Convenience
KS Convenience
Daisy Mart
Sam's Food Store
Bun King Bakery & Deli
Cross Country Donuts
Convenience News & Chews
Super Smokey Convenience Store
Madina Supermarket & Halal Meat
Foods of Asia
APG Convenience Video & Fast Food
Hasienda Foodmart
Baywood Convenience
Westney At 2 Food Market
Copper Kettle Candy Co.
The Honest Crook Convenience
Ajax Halal Meats
North Westney Mini Mart
The Corner Store
Mainly Cheese
7‐Eleven
Finley Fine Foods Ace Milk
Baseline Market
Kitchen Food Fair Convenience
A&N Convenience
Hasty Market
Other (SPECIFY)
5 b)
Location
37 Station Street (Ajax)
601 Church Street North (Ajax)
40 Hunt Street (Ajax)
43 Station Street (Ajax)
1801 Harwood Avenue North (Ajax)
282 Monarch Avenue (Ajax)
13 Church Street South (Ajax)
46 Church Street South (Ajax)
115 Delaney Drive (Ajax)
2 Rossland Road West (Ajax)
831 Finley Avenue (Ajax)
831 Finley Avenue (Ajax)
214 Bayly Street East (Ajax)
110 Ritchie Avenue (Ajax)
Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
5 c)
Amount Spent
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
5 d) Have you shopped at any OTHER FOOD STORE in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 5b) AND 5c) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO QUESTION 6.
59
Town Of Ajax
6)
How many persons live in your household?
ENTER NO.
7)
In which of the following age groups are you? [READ LIST]
Under 25
25‐34
35‐44
45‐54
55‐64
65 and over
REFUSED [DO NOT READ]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
INTERVIEWER PLEASE RECORD
INTERVIEW COMPLETED WITH:
Male primary shopper
Female primary shopper
1
2
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME AND CO‐OPERATION
60
Town Of Ajax
Appendix D: Background Data and Definitions Gross Leasable Area (GLA)
Gross leasable area (GLA) is the total retail floor area designed for tenant occupancy and exclusive use,
including basements, upper floors and mezzanines. It is expressed in square feet and measured from the
centre line of joint partitions and from outside wall faces. GLA is the area on which tenants pay rent and
which produces income for a tenant. Since it lends itself readily to measurement and comparison, GLA
has been adopted by the shopping centre industry as its standard for statistical comparison.
Per Capita Income
Per capita income represents average total personal income before tax, as defined by Statistics Canada.
The Trade Area income indices to the Province are based on Environics 2013 estimates.
Figure D-1 details our calculations of per capita retail expenditures in the Province of Ontario for 2013,
including the FSR category. These calculations are based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade data, using
final year data for 2013. The historic distribution of retail expenditures by store type is detailed in Figure
D-2.
Commodity Statistics
Statistics Canada Retail Commodity Survey (RCS) collects detailed information about retail commodity
sales in Canada. The objective is to produce estimates of the distribution of the sales of various
commodities at the national level, for different types of retail outlets in Canada. Figure D-3 and the
accompanying graph detail the historic changes in the distribution of food merchandise sales by selected
store type. As indicated, the percentage of food merchandise sales made in NFSR stores has doubled
over the past 10 years which has necessitated a change by urbanMetrics in the methodology typically
utilized to evaluate the market demand for supermarket space.
Trade Area Per Capita Retail Expenditures
Per Capita retail expenditures for Trade Area residents have been calculated in this report based on
regression equations utilizing Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending data. Figure D-5
presents the calculations of various regression equations, including for FSR and NFSR expenditures.
Figure D-4 details the expenditures for the Trade Area for 2013.
Expenditure Potential
Expenditure potential is the total annual expenditures made by Trade Area residents. This includes
purchases made both inside and outside the Trade Area. It is calculated by multiplying the average per
capita expenditure in each store category by the total population of a defined area.
Real Growth
Real growth refers to the amount that sales volumes or expenditures would increase in future years, after
discounting for inflation. Therefore, references to the Canadian dollar, dealing with both the present and
61
Town Of Ajax
future period, reflect its 2013 value in this report. For the purposes of this report, a real growth rate of
0.25% per year has been utilized for per capita FSR and NFSR expenditures.
Retail / Service Store Classification
A detailed listing of the retail and service space categories referred to in this report is included in Figure
D-6. This classification is based on Statistics Canada’s North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS).
62
2,174.1
149.4
148.9
492.3
1,010.6
1,514.7
636.8
500.1
75.8
60.9
285.8
1,495.4
‐
‐
295.2
Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511]
Convenience stores [44512]
Specialty food stores [4452]
Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453]
Health and personal care stores [446]
Gasoline Stations [447]
Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448]
Clothing stores [4481]
Shoe stores [4482]
Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores [4483]
Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451]
General merchandise stores [452]
Department stores [4521]
Other general merchandise stores [4529]
Miscellaneous store retailers [453]
13,055.1
2,295.6
162.5
178.9
610.9
1,022.1
1,615.1
743.9
593.1
81.5
69.3
249.3
1,636.1
‐
‐
314.2
119.3
425.1
274.3
150.8
425.4
620.8
3,248.0
2,458.1
3
2013
2,755.1
2,342.3
205.1
88.5
13,672.5
2,117.9
158.5
167.1
537.1
1,060.0
1,535.2
786.0
621.3
96.4
68.3
257.0
1,732.7
‐
‐
302.9
161.8
433.6
275.2
158.4
415.9
828.6
2,980.6
2,276.4
4
2013
3,340.0
2,811.9
241.6
124.8
Catalogue no. 91‐002‐X, vol. 27, no. 2 (released Sept 26 2013)
(partial years calculated by adding 4451 and 4452)
10,950.4
2,026.2
137.6
150.3
482.4
934.0
1,500.9
577.9
440.6
62.7
74.6
211.1
1,393.9
‐
‐
277.6
104.9
350.8
227.0
123.8
357.5
508.4
2,796.5
2,163.8
2
2013
2,041.8
1,709.6
163.4
63.9
15,403.2
2,350.9
178.4
188.1
746.7
1,127.6
1,665.4
913.7
714.8
110.5
88.4
278.1
2,000.7
‐
‐
340.8
169.0
464.0
301.4
162.6
419.9
1,100.4
3,464.2
2,529.3
5
2013
3,628.4
3,041.2
214.1
204.1
14,651.1
2,243.9
169.1
189.0
676.9
1,067.2
1,674.2
860.2
675.5
97.2
87.5
285.7
1,901.3
‐
‐
328.9
150.0
449.6
294.1
155.6
428.1
996.0
3,278.8
2,413.0
6
2013
3,381.1
2,808.4
235.7
187.0
*** urbanMetrics estimate. Excluded stores include: Mobile Home Dealers and Tomb Stone Dealers.
NA ‐ Department store sales and other general merchandise were not provided by Statistics Canada until 2011, therefore, for partial year data, annual estimates based on past six years cannot be calculated.
** For part year data, annualized totals calculated by applying average indices of quarters for the past six years as a % of total, to current year partial sales.
* Per Capita adjusted for estimated Non‐NFSR portion.
PER CAPITA GAFO (including NAICS 4413,442,443,448,451,452,453 @90%) ‐ EXCLUDES AUTOMOTIVE TIRES/BATTERIES/AUTO ACCESSORIES @ $141 PER CAPITA
TOTAL NFSR STORE SALES, ONTARIO [NAICS ‐ 4413, 442, 443, 444, 446, 448, 451, 452, 453 @ 90%] ‐ INCLUDES AUTOMOTIVE TIRES/BATTERIES/AUTO ACCESSORIES
Less Miscellaneous Store Retailers ‐ Non‐ NFSR Portion @ ***
10%
ADJUSTED TOTAL NFSR SALES, ONTARIO
POPULATION (July 1st Estimate)
Catalogue no. 91‐002‐X, vol. 27, no. 2 (released Sept 26 2013)
PER CAPITA NFSR STORE SALES
TOTAL ESTIMATED FSR SALES, ONTARIO [NAICS ‐ 4451, 4452]
POPULATION (July 1st Estimate)
PER CAPITA FSR SALES
11,759.8
122.0
441.0
269.7
171.3
437.0
566.3
2,964.6
2,323.5
Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores[4413]
Furniture and home furnishings stores [442]
Furniture stores [4421]
Home furnishings stores [4422]
Electronics and appliance stores [443]
Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444]
Food and beverage stores [445]
Grocery stores [4451] (includes 44511 & 44512)
TOTAL RETAIL TRADE
1
2013
2,112.5
1,734.6
191.4
‐
ONTARIO ‐ RETAIL TRADE (PUBLICATION 63‐005) ‐ PER CAPITA
($Millions)
MONTH
YEAR
Motor vehicle and parts dealers[441]
New car dealers[44111]
Used car dealers[44112]
Other motor vehicle dealers[4412]
14,512.4
2,149.7
181.5
189.0
711.0
1,059.1
1,736.4
796.4
629.9
89.2
77.3
275.6
1,888.4
‐
‐
313.8
162.5
471.8
301.8
170.1
433.7
1,021.3
3,231.1
2,331.2
7
2013
3,284.7
2,691.1
237.9
193.2
15,065.3
2,358.4
176.1
205.3
784.5
1,066.6
1,765.1
925.5
724.8
113.7
87.0
346.3
1,921.5
‐
‐
342.0
161.9
510.4
329.7
180.7
491.0
990.0
3,524.3
2,534.5
8
2013
3,182.5
2,612.3
229.5
178.9
14,102.8
2,126.1
165.5
182.0
633.8
1,050.5
1,667.3
880.9
695.9
103.0
82.0
369.9
1,814.7
‐
‐
370.0
156.7
479.2
310.9
168.3
479.7
900.1
3,107.4
2,291.6
9
2013
2,983.1
2,478.3
212.7
135.4
14,329.8
2,275.2
164.3
199.4
605.5
1,114.8
1,633.6
904.8
724.9
105.1
74.7
292.0
1,884.4
‐
‐
343.2
200.2
473.5
290.0
183.5
461.9
916.7
3,244.5
2,439.6
10
2013
3,060.3
2,511.6
233.4
115.2
14,709.1
2,203.6
150.7
202.1
654.8
1,113.2
1,597.1
1,084.0
862.2
118.0
103.8
379.7
2,111.1
‐
‐
350.2
227.5
538.6
305.4
233.3
588.4
856.2
3,211.3
2,354.3
11
2013
2,879.2
2,363.8
208.8
79.1
16,041.5
2,277.7
159.0
267.4
819.5
1,222.1
1,645.5
1,522.4
1,176.2
145.3
201.0
529.3
2,725.9
‐
‐
427.7
170.0
530.0
309.3
220.6
852.1
666.2
3,523.5
2,436.7
12
2013
2,396.6
1,987.1
181.3
58.2
$3,831
$76,988.1
$401.0
$76,587.1
13,537,994
$5,657
$30,819.4
13,537,994
$2,277
168,188.4
$1,965
$144
$167
$573
$949
$1,444
$785
$617
$89
$79
$278
$1,662
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
$266
$737
$2,849
$2,109
$9,971.1
$38,574.7
$28,551.9
$26,599.4
$1,952.5
$2,267.5
$7,755.3
$12,847.9
$19,550.5
$10,632.6
$8,359.3
$1,198.5
$1,074.8
$3,760.0
$22,505.9
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
$4,006.6
$141
$411
$258
$154
$428
$2,584
$2,149
$189
$105
Per
Capita
$1,905.7
$5,567.7
$3,488.8
$2,078.9
$5,790.5
$34,980.9
$29,092.1
$2,554.9
$1,428.2
ANNUALIZED
TOTAL**
Town Of Ajax
Figure E-1: Retail Expenditures in Ontario, 2013
63
Town Of Ajax
Figure D-2: Distribution of Expenditures, Ontario
64
Town Of Ajax
Figure D-3: Distribution of Expenditures, Ontario
RETAIL COMMODITY STATISTICS FOR CANADA BY STORE TYPE (1
Geography:
Canada
Retail commodity classification:
Food (exclude pet food, meals and lunches)
% of Total
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS):
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Food and beverage stores [445] Health and personal care stores [446] General merchandise stores [452] Miscellaneous store retailers [453] /Other Stores
87.3%
86.8%
86.9%
85.5%
86.7%
86.7%
86.6%
85.1%
85.6%
85.3%
85.9%
84.3%
85.5%
85.2%
85.0%
83.3%
84.3%
84.5%
84.2%
83.1%
84.6%
83.9%
83.5%
81.9%
83.0%
82.9%
82.1%
79.5%
81.4%
80.9%
80.7%
78.8%
80.6%
80.1%
79.8%
77.9%
79.2%
78.4%
78.8%
77.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.9%
1.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
2.0%
2.1%
1.8%
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.7%
1.4%
2.1%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
2.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
2.1%
9.1%
9.4%
9.3%
10.4%
9.6%
9.6%
9.6%
10.9%
10.4%
10.5%
10.2%
11.6%
10.7%
10.9%
11.0%
12.5%
11.7%
11.7%
12.0%
13.2%
11.9%
12.1%
12.4%
13.7%
12.9%
13.3%
14.1%
16.1%
14.7%
15.4%
15.7%
17.2%
15.5%
15.9%
16.4%
17.6%
16.7%
17.5%
17.4%
18.4%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.1%
2.2%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.1%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
2.3%
2.6%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1) Statistics Canada. Table 080‐0022 ‐ Retail commodity survey based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), quarterly (dollars)
As of the first quarter 2013, data is based on the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
65
Town Of Ajax
Figure D-4: Income/Expenditure Regression Equations in Ontario
(x)
(y1)
(y2)
(y3)
(y4)
(n)
Average Per Capita Income of Income Quintile
Income
FSR NFSR
Restaurant
Liquor/Beer/ Wine
1
2
3
4
5
All Classes
$11,020
$16,939
$24,067
$30,527
$56,256
$31,305
38.3
53.1
71.5
102.3
180.1
100.0
95.0
98.8
90.0
100.6
110.8
100.0
80.7
89.0
88.3
101.9
124.4
100.0
78.7
67.2
81.5
116.6
129.9
100.0
61.2
61.5
66.4
119.1
140.5
100.0
REGRESSION EQUATIONS:
FSR
y1 = 0.11 (x) + 89
NFSR
y2 = 0.39 (x) + 61
Restaurant
y3 = 0.33 (x) + 67
LBW
y4 = 0.65 (x) + 35
where x = income index (independent variable) and y = expenditure index for selected category (dependent variable)
1) Based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2011, Ontario.
Figure D-5: Trade Area Expenditures
BASE YEAR (2013) PER CAPITA EXPENDITURES
Planning Area 1
Planning Area 2
Planning Area 3
Planning Area 4
ONTARIO
Income Index to Province (1
82.7
83.3
99.1
103.6
FSR Index (2
98.1
98.2
99.9
100.4
2013 FSR Per Capita
$2,234
$2,236
$2,275
$2,286
NFSR Index (3
93.3
93.5
99.6
101.4
100.0
100.0
$2,277
100.0
2013 NFSR Per TOTAL RETAIL FSR as % of Capita
PER CAPITA
TOTAL (4
$5,278
$7,512
29.7%
$5,289
$7,525
29.7%
$5,634
$7,909
28.8%
$5,736
$8,022
28.5%
$5,657
$7,934
1) urbanMetrics estimates based on Census and Revenue Canada data.
2) Based on Regression: Y = 89 + .11 (x), where x is the income index to the province
3) Based on Regression: Y = 61 + .39 (x), where x is the income index to the province
4) As utilized in report. No adjustment made to base year FSR.
66
Town Of Ajax
Figure D-6: Retail/Service Classification, Based on
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
Trade
Group
NAICS
Description
90
Supermarkets
44511
Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores
100
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores
Convenience Stores
44512
Meat Markets
44521
Fish and Seafood Markets
44522
Fruit and Vegetable Markets
44523
Other Specialty Food Stores, including Baked Goods Stores, & Confectionary & Nut
44529
FOOD
BEVERAGE STORES
110
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores
44531
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)
Automotive
20
Used and Recreational Motor Vehicle and Parks Dealers (Tires, Batteries, Automotive Accessories component)
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores
44131
Tire Dealers
44132
Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores
30
Furniture Stores
44211
40
Home Furnishings Stores
Floor Covering Stores (excludes retailers or only ceramic or only hardwood flooring which are in Building Supply)
44221
Other Home Furnishings Stores (e.g. window treatments, fireplace/accessories, kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens,
44229
50
Computer and Software Stores
Computer and Software Stores (includes retailing new computers, computer peripherals, pre-packaged software, game
44312
Furniture Stores
brooms and brushes, lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames).
software and related products)
60
Home Electronics and Appliance Stores
Appliance, Television and other Electronics Stores
44311
Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores
44313
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores
70
Home Centres and Hardware Stores
Home Centres
44411
Hardware Stores (includes tool stores)
44413
80
Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
44412
Other Building Material Dealers (excluding manufacturing and construction firms) (includes doors, windows, kitchen
44419
cabinets, electrical, glass, plumbing, ceramic floor, roofing materials, fencing)
44421
44422
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores (lawn mowers, tractors, hedge trimmers, snow blowers)
Nursery Stores and Garden Centres
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores
120
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
44611
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores
44612
Optical Goods Stores
44613
Other Health and Personal Care Stores (includes stores retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin
44619
supplements, hearing aids, and medical equipment and supplies)
67
Town Of Ajax
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (Continued)
Trade
Group
NAICS
Description
NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) (Continued)
Clothing and Accessories Stores
140
150
Clothing Stores
44811
44812
44813
44814
44819
Men's Clothing Stores
Women's Clothing Stores
Children's and Infant's Clothing Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Other Clothing Stores
Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores
Clothing Accessories Stores
44815
Shoe Stores (includes athletic shoe retailers)
44821
Jewellery Stores
44831
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores
44832
General Merchandise Stores
170
175
180
Department Stores
45211
45211
Department Stores
Department Stores with a Large food component (i.e. Walmart Supercentres)
Other General Merchandise Stores
Warehouse Clubs and Superstores
45291
All Other General Merchandise Stores:
45299
Home & Auto (i.e. Canadian Tire)
Other General Merchandise Stores (e.g. general stores, variety stores, "dollar" stores)
Miscellaneous Retailers
160
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores
Sporting Goods Stores (excludes athletic shoe retailers)
45111
Hobby, Toy and Game Stores (excludes computer games and software)
45112
Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores
45113
Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores
45114
Book Stores and News Dealers
45121
Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores
45122
190
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Florists
45311
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
45321
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores
45322
Used Merchandise Stores
45331
Pet and Pet Supplies Stores
45391
Art Dealers (excludes art galleries)
45392
All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (e.g. tobacco supplies, artist supplies, collectors items, beer & wine making,
45399
swimming pool/spas/accessories, religious goods and accessories)
68
Town Of Ajax
Trade
Group
NAICS
Description
SERVICES
200
Consumer Goods Rental
53221
53222
53223
53229
53231
210
Finance
215
52211
52213
52239
220
241
245
Other Rental (sporting goods, garden equipment, home health, fitness etc.)
General Rental Centres (including contractors' and builders' tools and equipment, home repair tools, lawn and garden
equipment, moving equipment and supplies, and party and banquet equipment and supplies
Banks
Credit Unions
Other Financial (including cheque cashing, mortgage brokers, other financial services (e.g. Edward Jones))
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers Office of Real Estate Appraisers
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
54111
54119
54121
54131
54132
54134
54137
54138
54141
54143
54149
54151
54161
54162
54169
54171
54172
54181
54182
54191
54192
54193
54194
54199
240
Video Tape and Disc Rental
Insurance and Real Estate
52421
53121
53132
230
Consumer Electronics and Appliance (Appliance rental and leasing, rental of consumer audio-visual equipment
(including rent-to-own), Television rental and leasing, Video recorder and player rental and leasing, Washers and dryers
t l) Wear and Costume Rental
Formal
Offices of Lawyers
Other Legal Services (e.g.. Paralegal, Title search, immigration consultation, notaries)
Offices of Accountants, Tax Preparation Services, Bookings, Payroll
Architectural Services
Landscape Architecture (includes urban planners, industrial development planning, landscape architects)
Drafting Services
Survey and Mapping Services
Testing Labs (excluding medical, auto, veterinary)
Interior Design Services
Graphic Design Services (includes art studios)
Other Specialized Design Services (e.g. clothing, jewellery, fashion)
Computer Systems Design and Related Services (e.g. computer consulting and programming)
Management Consulting Services
Environmental Consulting Services
Other Scientific and Technical Consulting (e.g. economic, hydrology, safety )
Research & Development in the Physical, Engineering and Life Sciences (includes medical research labs)
Research & Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities (e.g.. demographic, education, psychology research)
Advertising Agencies
Public Relations Services (e.g. lobbyists, political consultants)
Marketing Research & Public opinion polling
Photographic Services (e.g. passport photography, photo studios portrait photography studies)
Translation and Interpretation Services
Veterinary Services (excludes pet care (81291))
All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (includes consumer credit counselling)
Selected Office Administrative Services 56131
56141
56142
56143
56144
56145
56151
56159
56162
Employment Services (includes placements, executive search, casting agencies etc.)
Document Preparation Services (proofreading, word processing, desktop publishing etc.)
Telephone Call Centres
Business Service Centres (e.g.. printing, copying, mail centres) (excludes commercial printing)
Collection Agencies Credit Bureaus Travel Agencies Other Travel Arrangement & Reservation Services (e.g.. ticket sales agency, tourist info, bus ticket offices, etc.)
Security Systems (includes security system sales, installation and monitoring; locksmiths (excluding key duplication - 81149))
Selected Educational Services
61161
61162
Fine Arts Schools (e.g. dance, drama, music, art, handicrafts)
61163
61169
Language Schools
Athletic Instruction (e.g. aerobic dance, gymnastics, judo, karate, martial arts, scuba, swimming) (excludes athletic
instruction in sport and recreation facility)
All Other Schools and Instruction (e.g. driving instruction, public speaking, Kumon, Oxford)
69
Town Of Ajax
Trade
Group
NAICS
Description
SERVICES (Continued)
250
Health Care
63111
62121
62131
62132
62133
62134
62135
62141
62142
62149
62151
255
Offices of Physicians Offices of Dentists Offices of Chiropractors
Offices of Optometrists (excludes eyeglass stores - 44613)
Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (psychologists, psychiatric social workers)
Offices of Physical, Occupational, Speech Therapists and Audiologists
Offices of Other Health Practitioners (e.g.. acupuncturists, dental hygienists, dieticians, naturopath, podiatrists)
Family Planning Centres
Outpatient Mental Health and Substance Abuse Centres
Other Outpatient Care Centres (e.g. public health clinics, hearing testing, dialysis)
Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories (e.g. medical, x-ray, dental lab (excluding making of dentures, ortho appliances,
Social Services
62411
62149
62441
Child and Youth Social Services (e.g. Children's aid, youth centres, adoption)
Other Individual and Family Services (e.g.. AA, marriage counselling, outreach)
Child Day Care
260
Cultural, Entertainment and Recreation
261
71312
Amusement Arcades (e.g. indoor play areas, pinball arcades, video game arcades)
262
263
71394
71395
Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres (includes athletic clubs, spas (w/o accommodation), aerobic dance centres, health
264
71399
All other Amusement and Recreation Industries (includes billiards parlours)
265
51213
Motion Picture and Video Exhibition (includes cinemas)
270
271
272
273
274
72211
72221
72232
72241
280
281
281
281
81111
81112
81119
Automotive Mechanical & Electrical Repair & Maintenance (includes engine repair, exhausts, transmission, electrical
81121
81141
81142
81143
81149
Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance (includes ink jet cartridges (cleaning and refilling), TV repair)
282
282
290
295
Bowling Centres
Food Services and Drinking Places
Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Eating Places Caterers (includes banquet halls)
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) -( includes night clubs, bars (including those with gaming), pubs, taverns
Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance Automotive Body, Paint, Interior and Glass Repair (includes collision repair, auto upholstery, paint & body shops)
Other Automotive Repair & Maintenance (includes auto detail, washing, diagnostic centres, lube, rust proofing,
undercoating, emissions testing)
Home and Garden Equipment and Appliance Repair & Maintenance (e.g. small engine repair)
Reupholstery and Furniture Repair
Footwear and Leather Goods Repair (e.g. shoe repair)
Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance (includes key cutting, china firing/decorating, jewellery
repair, sharpening of knives, skate sharpening, watch repair etc.)
Personal Care Services
81211
81219
Hair care and Esthetic Services (includes barber, beauty, hair salons)
81231
81232
81233
81291
81292
81299
Coin-operated Laundries and dry cleaners (self service)
Other Personal Care services (includes day spa, diet centres, hair removal, massage parlours, tanning salons, tattoo
parlours, weight reduction centres)
Dry Cleaning and Laundry services (except coin operated)
Linen and Uniform Supply (includes work clothing supply services - industrial)
Pet Care (except veterinary)
Photofinishing Services
All other Personal Services (e.g. fortune tellers, dating services, psychic services, shoeshine)
Civic and Social Organizations
81341
81391
Civic and Social Organizations (includes clubs)
Business Associations (includes board of trade, real estate boards etc.)
Transportation
296
300
49111
VACANT
9999
Postal Service (post office)
VACANT RETAIL/SERVICE SPACE
70

supermarket market demand and impact analysis

Transcription

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