Weather Watch - Alberta Emergency Management Agency

“Weather Watch” and Weather
Services for Emergency Managers
AEMA First Nations Emergency
Management Conference
West Edmonton Mall
February 24-25, 2015
Dan Kulak
Warning Preparedness Meteorologist
Meteorological Service of Canada
[email protected]
About me…
• With Environment Canada since 1988
– Operational forecaster on the Prairies 1989-2000
– “Warning Preparedness Meteorologist” in AB since 2000
• EC Central and Northern AB EC weather “point of
contact”
– Colleague in Calgary for Southern AB
• Deal primarily with
– EMO’s (PSC, AEMA, occasionally AB Municipalities)
– OGD’s (Parks Canada, Alberta Health Services)
– Media outlets
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About My Profession…
• The problems with weather predictions are
– They are wrong often enough they cannot be completely trusted!
– They’re right often enough they cannot be completely ignored .
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Agenda
• Disasters and weather events – some you remember,
some you don’t...
– Weather as a “Real Life Adventure” and “Life Skill”
• Weather emergencies – direct and indirect
• Accessing EC weather info direct from EC
• MASAS, NAADS, social media and “Alberta Emergency
•
Alert”
Specialized EC weather products and services to
emergency management
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Natural Disasters
Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) “Telling the Weather
Story” Report June 2012
• In Canada over the last
century
– 80% of all natural disasters
were Weather or Water
related!!!
– $1.6B in 2011, $1B in 2010
and 2009... majority
weather related
– water claims have
surpassed fire claims in
many parts of Canada
(Pine Lake July 2000, photo courtesy Dennis Dudley EC)
http://www.ibc.ca/ab/resources/studies/weather-story
(not an endorsement, simply a reference)
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AB $losses 1983-2011
IBC report June 2012
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Big Valley Jamboree, Camrose AB
Aug 1, 2009 - imediatv.ca Helicopter video stills
Approaching wind outflow
from thunderstorms
WRV
Airport
STAGE
W
E
Do you remember this event?
Nearing airport, looking ~ SW
minutes before gust front arrives – news helicopter heading back to
airport due approaching weather
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Are these “Weather Emergencies”?
Do you remember these?
Edmonton July 11, 2004 thunderstorm/hail
Calgary June 2005
rains
Calgary August 9, 1999
Hub Oil Refinery fire
Pine Lake July 14, 2000 Tornado Damage
Trans Canada washout west of Maple Creek,
June 19, 2010
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Calgary November 27, 2011
downtown wind damage
The events you don’t remember
(because you luckily were not affected)…
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Most Tornadoes!
Local news for a few days… little damage, no injuries
Lethbridge, AB June 21, 2005
Holden, AB
July 29, 1993
High River, AB
June 27, 1996
Do you remember these
events?
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Looking out…
The events you don’t remember
(because you luckily were not affected)…
• likely far outnumber the events you do remember, and
• do nothing to help you prepare for the events that are
•
beyond your experience but are still to come
Weather is a “Real Life Adventure”…
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“REAL LIFE ADVENTURES” Cartoon
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“Weather Watch”…
a true “Real Life Adventure”!
• A “Weather Watch” is not only about knowing
– Todays’ weather observations, forecasts, Watches, Warnings
• A “Weather Watch” is also about knowing
– What has happened in the past since it can happen again
– What to look for when watching the sky yourself
– Your weather sensitivities, including sensitivities to weather
conditions that may not meet the criteria for being mentioned in
EC forecasts!
– What to do if weather threatens (forecasted or not)
• A “Public Alert” message (weather Watch or Warning)
– Is your LAST line of defence, not your FIRST call to action!
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AEMA Hazard Impact and Risk
Assessment Project
• EC has provided input for weather portion
– numerous historical and potential future Alberta weather events
• Weather awareness and preparedness are
– Specialized skills (for experts and professionals), and
– Life skills (for everyone of all ages)!
• AB weather…
– 5 to 6 months of snow, ice and freeze/thaw cycles
– 2 to 3 months of severe thunderstorms
– 2 to 3 months of rain related regional flooding concerns
• And from snow in June and September to thunderstorms
in December, 12 months of just about anything goes!
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Potential Emergencies directly
related to Weather?
• Local thunderstorms (#events/year based on 2005-2013)
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
•
Lightning… ~350,000 flashes/year in AB
Large hail…71 events/year
Strong winds…27 events/year
Tornadoes… 8 events/year
Local downpours… 5 events/year
Widespread heavy rains (flooding)… few times per year?
Rain on snow (enhances melting and runoff)
Winter storms (snow, wind, blizzard visibility)… ≤ 1/year?
“Freezing Rain” (not the same as “Rain” that freezes)
Extreme heat or cold (and large rapid changes)
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Emergencies – Weather has
Secondary Impact
• Major Fires
– natural wildfires and others
•
•
•
•
•
Well Blow-outs
Pipeline ruptures
Train Derailments
Major Chemical spills/releases
Etc.
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ENVIRONMENT CANADA
Weather and Meteorology website
• www.ec.gc.ca, “Explore
the Topics > Weather”
– The “static” (not changing)
information
▪ Get Your Weather
▪ How to Use our Forecasts
▪ Hazardous Weather >
Public Alerting Criteria
▪ Climate and Historical
Weather
▪ Others
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Real time and Forecast Weather
www.weather.gc.ca
• The “dynamic” information
– Current conditions and
forecasts
– Public Alerts (Special
Weather Statements,
Advisories, Watches and
Warnings)
– Radar, Lightning, Satellite
– Monthly and Seasonal
Forecasts
– Historical (Past) Weather
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Current Conditions and Forecasts
www.weather.gc.ca
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Public Alerts
www.weather.gc.ca
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EC Forecast and
Public Alerting Regions
• 34 broad regions in Alberta
– Day 1 through Day 7
forecasts
– Most “Public Alerts”
▪ Special Weather
Statements, Advisories
and Watches
▪ Warnings not related to
thunderstorms
• 332 local Public Alerting
regions within the 34 broad
regions
– Used mostly for Severe
Thunderstorm and Tornado
Warnings
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“Weatheradio Canada”…
Weatheradio Receiver
• North America wide network
• 7 radio frequencies in the “VHF
FM Public Service Band”
• Available on some “regular”
consumer radios, including
vehicle radios
• EC Public Alerts 24/7
• In future may be used for
notification of other
emergencies (“All Hazards”
alerting radios)
Midland WR-300 (Consumer Electronics Association “Public Alert Certified”)
AM/FM/All Hazards Alert Radio ~$60
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Weatheradio in Alberta
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“EC Alert Me” email notification
www.ecalertme.weather.gc.ca
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“EC Alert Me” email notification
www.ecalertme.weather.gc.ca
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“EC Alert Me” email notification
www.ecalertme.weather.gc.ca
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“EC Alert Me” sample outputs
(Short Message)
(Long Message)
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Other sources of EC Public Alerts
• MASAS – Multi-Agency Situational Awareness System
– Development led by Defence R&D Canada
– Audience: EM community
• NAADS – National Alert Aggregation and Dissemination
System
– Established by Pelmorex Communications (“The Weather
Network”) subsequent to an order by the CRTC
▪ TV, web, mobile aps, other
– Audience: everybody
• Social Media alerting platforms
– ongoing development by EC/GOC
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EC and Alberta Emergency Alert
• AEA operated by Province of Alberta
• EC will activate for
– Critical Alerts (potential for significant areas of destruction and/or
deaths… tornados, thunderstorms with very large hail or
devastating winds
• weather activations should be done by EC unless the
threat is absolutely imminent
www.emergencyalert.alberta.ca/
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EC Specialized Products for
Emergency Managers
• Site specific (Precision Weather) forecasts
• Dispersion modelling of airborne substances
• Specialized alerting products and services (under
development)
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Wabamum, AB August 3, 2005
• 43 Rail cars derailed
• Up to 1.3 million litres of heavy Bunker C Fuel Oil spilled
•
•
from rail cars
Spilled substance entered lake
Emergency request made to Environment Canada to
provide specialized point weather forecast to assist
clean-up operations
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Specialized Product
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Tsuu T’ina Nation Garbage Fire
Feb 15, 2012
(SW Calgary, Feb 15/12, Rick Donkers YYC Herald)
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Hythe AB, Gas Well Blow-Out
• February 24, 2010
• Environment Canada
Environmental Emergency
Response Section
(Photo courtesy CBC News)
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Specialized Product
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Ongoing EC Weather
“Early Notification Project”
• Highlight potential significant weather that begins 2 to 4
•
days in the future
Focus on meteorological events that have some
predictability and which meet one of the following…
– Are unusually intense for the time of year (the type of event that
on average occurs about once a year or less often), or
– Are highly unusual for the time of year (such as Snowfall
Warnings in Late Spring and Early Fall), or
– Do not meet the above criteria but based on EMO partner input
may affect areas with known extreme weather sensitivities, such
as a multi-day period of light rain in an area that recently
received heavy rain and is on the verge of flooding
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Early Notification Example Issued
November 29, 2013
Issued: Friday November 29, 2013 at 11:55 AM MST
Weather Event Description:
Potential Winter Storm with widespread snow and blowing snow. General snow fall greater
than 10 cm, locally greater than 25 cm. Blowing snow south of the tree line and east of the
foothills. Arctic air and significant wind chills across many areas in immediate wake of storm
with subsequent lighter winds and temperatures remaining cold.
Weather Event Estimated Start Time and Duration:
Storm with snow developing/moving into northwestern Alberta Sunday then across the
province and finally exiting eastwards out of southeast Alberta late Monday. Significant arctic
winds, blowing snow and cold wind chills will initially follow the heart of the storm. Winds will
then diminish as the storm moves further eastward but cold temperatures will persist during
the following days.
Confidence Level:
High for the potential of a winter storm affecting Alberta.
Moderate as to intensities and locations of heaviest snow and extent of blowing snow.
For updates, please monitor upcoming weather forecasts, warnings and special weather
statements:
http://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/swsindex_e.html
*This is an experimental initiative
*This one-time notification highlights the possibility of an upcoming major weather event and emphasizes the need to monitor
upcoming weather forecasts and possible warnings as the event may unfold
*NOT an official Environment Canada Weather Watch or Warning
*NOT for redistribution beyond the Emergency Management community (managers, planners, first responders)
*Warning Preparedness Meteorologists are available to discuss 0800 to 1600 local time Monday to Friday business days
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Historical Weather Data
www.weather.gc.ca
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In Closing...
• Weather is a “Real Life Adventure” and “Life Skill”
• Weather emergencies – direct and indirect
– Sensitive weather details may not be in EC forecasts or alerts
• Accessing EC weather info direct from EC
– Website, EC Alert Me
• MASAS, NAADS, social media and “Alberta Emergency
•
Alert”
Specialized EC weather products and services to
emergency management
– Site specific forecasts
– Dispersion modelling
– Early Notification
Page 41 – April-10-15