35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore`s movie

Transcription

Global Warming Science and Public Policy - 35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore’s movie
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The Climate Science Isn't Settled
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35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al
Gore’s movie
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Proved: There is No Climate Crisis
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35 Inconvenient
Truths: The errors in
Al Gore’s movie
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Friday, 19 October 2007
35 Inconvenient
Truths
The errors in Al Gore’s movie
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html (1 of 78)12/10/2009 5:36:16 AM
For the Full Report in PDF Form, please click here.
By
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
October 18, 2007
Christopher Walter, Third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, is a
former policy advisor to Margaret Thatcher during her years as
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He may reached through
SPPI, or directly at ( [email protected] ).
35 Inconvenient Truths
The errors in Al Gore’s movie
A spokesman for Al Gore has issued a questionable response to the news that in October 2007 the High Court
in London had identified nine “errors” in his movie An
Inconvenient Truth. The judge had stated that, if the UK
Government had not agreed to send to every
secondary school in England a corrected guidance note
making clear the mainstream scientific position on
these nine “errors”, he would have made a finding that
the Government’s distribution of the film and the first
draft of the guidance note earlier in 2007 to all English
secondary schools had been an unlawful contravention
of an Act of Parliament prohibiting the political
indoctrination of children.
Al Gore’s spokesman and “environment advisor,” Ms.
Kalee Kreider, begins by saying that the film presented
“thousands and thousands of facts.” It did not: just 2,000 “facts” in 93 minutes would have been one fact every
three seconds. The film contained only a few dozen points, most of which will be seen to have been
substantially inaccurate. The judge concentrated only on nine points which even the UK Government, to which
Gore is a climate-change advisor, had to admit did not represent mainstream scientific opinion.
Ms. Kreider then states, incorrectly, that the judge himself had never used the term “errors.” In fact, the judge
used the term “errors,” in inverted commas, throughout his judgment.
Next, Ms. Kreider makes some unjustifiable ad hominem attacks on Mr. Stewart Dimmock, the lorry driver,
school governor and father of two school-age children who was the plaintiff in the case. This memorandum,
however, will eschew any ad hominem response, and will concentrate exclusively on the 35 scientific
inaccuracies and exaggerations in Gore’s movie.
Ms. Kreider then says, “The process of creating a 90-minute documentary from the original peer-reviewed
science for an audience of moviegoers in the U.S. and around the world is complex.” However, the single webpage entitled “The Science” on the movie’s official website contains only two references to articles in the peerreviewed scientific journals. There is also a reference to a document of the IPCC, but its documents are not
independently peer-reviewed in the usual understanding of the term.
Ms. Kreider then says, “The judge stated clearly that he was not attempting to perform an analysis of the
scientific questions in his ruling.” He did not need to. Each of the nine “errors” which he identified had been
admitted by the UK Government to be inconsistent with the mainstream of scientific opinion.
Ms. Kreider says the IPCC’s results are sometimes “conservative,” and continues: “Vice President Gore tried to
convey in good faith those threats that he views as the most serious.” Readers of the long list of errors
described in this memorandum will decide for themselves whether Mr. Gore was acting in good faith. However,
in this connection it is significant that each of the 35 errors listed below misstates the conclusions of the
scientific literature or states that there is a threat where there is none or exaggerates the threat where there
may be one. All of the errors point in one direction – towards undue alarmism. Not one of the errors falls in the
direction of underestimating the degree of concern in the scientific community. The likelihood that all 35 of the
errors listed below could have fallen in one direction purely by inadvertence is less than 1 in 34 billion.
We now itemize 35 of the scientific errors and exaggerations in Al Gore’s movie. The first nine were listed by
the judge in the High Court in London in October 2007 as being “errors.” The remaining 26 errors are just as
inaccurate or exaggerated as the nine spelt out by the judge, who made it plain during the proceedings that the
Court had not had time to consider more than these few errors. The judge found these errors serious enough to
require the UK Government to pay substantial costs to the plaintiff.
ERROR 1
Sea level "rising 6 m"
Gore says that a sea-level rise of up to 6 m (20 ft) will be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or
Greenland. Though Gore does not say that the sea-level rise will occur in the near future, the judge found that,
in the context, it was clear that this is what he had meant, since he showed expensive graphical representations
of the effect of his imagined 6 m (20 ft) sea-level rise on existing populations, and he quantified the numbers
who would be displaced by the sea-level rise.
The IPCC says sea-level increases up to 7 m (23 ft) above today’s levels have happened naturally in the past
climate, and would only be likely to happen again after several millennia. In the next 100 years, according to
calculations based on figures in the IPCC’s 2007 report, these two ice sheets between them will add a little over
6 cm (2.5 inches) to sea level, not 6 m (this figure of 6 cm is 15% of the IPCC’s total central estimate of a 43 cm
or 1 ft 5 in sea-level rise over the next century). Gore has accordingly exaggerated the official sea-level
estimate by approaching 10,000 per cent.
Ms. Kreider says the IPCC estimates a sea-level rise of “59 cm” by 2100. She fails to point out that this
amounts to less than 2 ft, not the 20 ft imagined by Gore. She also fails to point out that this is the IPCC’s upper
estimate, on its most extreme scenario. And she fails to state that the IPCC, faced with a stream of peerreviewed articles stating that sea-level rise is not a threat, has reduced this upper estimate from 3 ft in 2001 to
less than 2 ft (i.e. half the mean centennial sea-level rise that has occurred since the end of the last Ice Age
10,000 years ago) in 2007.
Ms. Kreider says the IPCC’s 2007 sea-level calculations excluded contributions from Greenland and West
Antarctica because they could not be quantified. However, Table SPM1 of the 2007 report quantifies the
contributions of these two ice-sheets to sea-level rise as representing about 15% of the total change.
The
report
also
mentions the possibility that there may be an unquantified further contribution in future from these two ice
sheets arising from “dynamical ice flow.” However, the Greenland ice sheet rests in a depression in the bedrock
created by its own weight, wherefore “dynamical ice flow” is impossible, and the IPCC says that temperature
would have to be sustained at more than 5.5 degrees C above its present level for several millennia before half
the Greenland ice sheet could melt, causing sea level to rise by some 3 m (10 ft).
Finally, the IPCC’s 2007 report estimates that the likelihood that humankind is having any influence on sea level
at all is little better than 50:50.
The judge was accordingly correct in finding that Gore’s presentation of the imagined imminent threat of a 6 m
(20 ft) sea-level rise, with his account of the supposed impact on the present-day populations of Manhattan, the
Netherlands, Bangladesh, etc., etc, was not a correct statement of the mainstream science on this question.
ERROR 2
Pacific islands "drowning"
Gore says low-lying inhabited Pacific coral atolls are already being inundated because of anthropogenic global
warming, leading to the evacuation of several island populations to New Zealand. However, the atolls are not
being inundated, except where dynamiting of reefs or over-extraction of fresh water by local populations has
caused damage.
Furthermore, corals can grow at ten times the predicted rate of increase in sea level. It is not by some accident
or coincidence that so many atolls reach just a few feet above the ocean surface.
Ms. Kreider says, “The IPCC estimates that 150 million environmental
refugees could exist by the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of
coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption.”
However, the IPCC cannot be basing its estimate on sea-level rise,
since even its maximum projected rise of just 30 cm (1 ft) by 2050
would not cause significant coastal flooding or shoreline erosion. There
are several coastlines (the east coast of England, for instance) where
the land is sinking as a consequence of post-ice-age isostatic recovery,
or where (as in Bangladesh) tectonic subduction is similarly causing the
land to sink. But such natural causes owe nothing to sea-level rise.
There have been no mass evacuations of populations of islanders as suggested by Gore, though some
residents of Tuvalu have asked to be moved to New Zealand, even though the tide-gauges maintained until
recently by the National Tidal Facility of Australia show a mean annual sea-level rise over the past half-century
equivalent to the thickness of a human hair. The problem with the Carteret Islands, mentioned by Ms. Kreider,
arose not because of rising sea levels but because of imprudent dynamiting of the reefs by local fishermen.
In the Maldives, a detailed recent study showed that sea levels were unchanged today compared with 1250
years ago, though they have been higher in much of the intervening period, and have very seldom been lower.
A well-established tree very close to the Maldivian shoreline and only
inches above sea level was recently uprooted by Australian
environmentalists anxious to destroy this visible proof that sea level
cannot have risen very far.
ERROR 3
Thermohaline circulation "stopping"
Gore says “global warming” may shut down the thermohaline circulation in the oceans, which he calls the
“ocean conveyor,” plunging Europe into an ice age. It will not. A paper published in 2006 says: “Analyses of
ocean observations and model simulations suggest that changes in the thermohaline circulation during the last
century are likely the result of natural multidecadal climate variability. Indications of a sustained thermohaline
circulation weakening are not seen during the last few decades. Instead, a strengthening since the 1980s is
observed.”
Ms. Kreider, for Mr. Gore, says that “multiple scientists” have claimed that we cannot exclude the possibility of
the disruption or shutdown of the Conveyor. Disruption, perhaps: shutdown, no. It is now near-universally
accepted that the thermohaline circulation cannot be and will not be shut down by “global warming,” and the
film should have been corrected to reflect the consensus.
ERROR 4
CO2 "driving temperature"
Gore says that in each of the last four interglacial warm periods it was changes in carbon dioxide concentration
that caused changes in temperature. It was the other way about. Changes in temperature preceded changes in
CO2 concentration by between 800 and 2800 years, as scientific papers including the paper on which Gore’s
film had relied had made clear.
Ms. Kreider says it is true that “greenhouse gas levels and temperature changes in the ice signals have a
complicated relationship but they do fit.” This does not address Gore’s error at all. The judge found that Gore
had very clearly implied that it was changes in carbon dioxide concentration that had led to changes in
temperature in the palaeoclimate, when the scientific literature is unanimous (save only for a single paper by
James Hansen, whom Gore trusts) to the effect that the relationship was in fact the other way about, with a
carbon dioxide feedback contributing only a comparatively insignificant further increase to temperature after the
temperature change had itself initiated a change in carbon dioxide concentration.
The significance of this error was explained during the court proceedings, and was accepted by the judge. Gore
says that the 100 ppmv difference between carbon dioxide concentrations during ice-age temperature minima
and interglacial temperature maxima represents “the difference between a nice day and a mile of ice above
your head.” This would imply a CO2 effect on temperature about 10 times greater than that regarded as
plausible by the consensus of mainstream scientific opinion (see Error 10).
Ms. Kreider refers readers to a “more complete description” available at a website maintained by, among
others, two of the three authors of the now-discredited “hockey stick” graph that falsely attempted to abolish the
Mediaeval Warm Period. The National Academy of Sciences in the US had found that graph to have “a
validation skill not significantly different from zero” – i.e., the graph was useless.
ERROR 5
Snows of Kilimanjaro "melting"
Gore says “global warming” has been melting the snows of Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. It is not.
The melting of the Furtwangler Glacier at the summit of the mountain began 125 years ago. More of the glacier
had melted before Hemingway wrote The Snows of Kilimanjaro in 1936 than afterward.
Temperature at the summit never rises above freezing and is at an average of –7 Celsius. The cause of the
melting is long-term climate shifts exacerbated by imprudent regional deforestation, and has nothing to do with
“global warming.”
Ms. Kreider says, “Every tropical glacier for which we have documented evidence shows that glaciers are
retreating.” However, a recent survey of the glaciers in the tropical Andes shows that they were largely ice-free
in the past 10,000 years, except on the very highest peaks. The mere fact of warming or melting, therefore, tells
us nothing of the cause.
Ms. Kreider says, “Global warming exacerbates the stresses that ecosystems (and humans) are already
experiencing.” However, since the temperature at the summit of Kilimanjaro remains below freezing and has
not risen in 30 years, “global warming” is not “exacerbating the stresses” at the summit of Kilimanjaro.
ERROR 6
Lake Chad "drying up"
Gore says “global warming” dried up Lake Chad in Africa. It did not. Over-extraction of water and changing
agricultural patterns dried the lake, which was also dry in 8500BC, 5500BC, 1000BC and 100BC. Ms. Kreider
says, “There are multiple stresses upon Lake Chad.” However, the scientific consensus is that at present those
“stresses” do not include “global warming.”
ERROR 7
Hurricane Katrina "man made"
Gore says Hurricane Katrina, that devastated New Orleans in 2005, was caused by “global warming.” It was
not. It was caused by the failure of Gore’s party, in the administration of New Orleans, to heed 30 years of
warnings by the Corps of Engineers that the levees – dams that kept New Orleans dry – could not stand a
direct hit by a hurricane. Katrina was only Category 3 when it struck the levees. They failed, as the Engineers
had said they would. Gore’s party, not “global warming,” was to blame for the consequent death and
destruction.
Ms. Kreider says,
“Mr. Gore has
never addressed
the issue of
climate change
and hurricane
frequency.” What
Gore actually
says, however,
addresses the
frequency not
only of
hurricanes but
also of typhoons
and tornadoes –
“We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes.
Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year
we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for
tornadoes in the United States. Japan again didn’t get as much attention
in our news media, but they set an all time record for typhoons. The
previous record was seven. Here are all ten of the ones they had in 2004.”
For the record,
however, the
number of Atlantic
hurricanes shows
no trend over the
past half century;
the number of
typhoons has fallen
throughout the past
30 years; the
number of
tornadoes has risen
only because of
better detection
systems for smaller
tornadoes; but the
number of larger
tornadoes in the US
has fallen.
ERROR 8
Polar bear "dying"
Gore says a scientific study shows that polar bears are being killed swimming long distances to find ice that has
melted away because of “global warming.” They are not. The study, by Monnett & Gleason (2005), mentioned
just four dead bears. They had died in an exceptional storm, with high winds and waves in the Beaufort Sea.
The amount of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has grown over the past 30 years. A report for the World Wide Fund
for Nature shows that polar bears, which are warm-blooded, have grown in numbers where temperature has
increased, and have become fewer where temperature has fallen. Polar bears evolved from brown bears
200,000 years ago, and survived the last interglacial period, when global temperature was 5 degrees Celsius
warmer than the present and there was probably no Arctic ice-cap at all. The real threat to polar bears is not
“global warming” but hunting. In 1940, there were just 5,000 polar bears worldwide. Now that hunting is
controlled, there are 25,000.
Ms. Kreider says sea-ice “was the lowest ever measured for minimum extent in 2007.” She does not say that
the measurements, which are done by satellite, go back only 29 years. She does not say that the North-West
Passage, a good proxy for Arctic sea-ice extent, was open to shipping in 1945, or that Amundsen passed
through in a sailing vessel in 1903.
ERROR 9
Coral reefs "bleaching"
Gore says coral reefs are “bleaching” because of “global warming.” They are not. There was some bleaching in
1998, but this was caused by the exceptional El Nino Southern Oscillation that year. Two similarly severe El
Ninos over the past 250 years also caused extensive bleaching. “Global warming” was nothing to do with it.
Ms. Kreider says, “The IPCC and other scientific bodies have long identified increases in ocean temperatures
with the bleaching of coral reefs.” So they have: but the bleaching in 1998 occurred as a result not of “global
warming” but of a rare, though not unique, severe El Nino Southern Oscillation.
ERROR 10
100 ppmv of CO2 "melting mile-thick ice"
Gore implies that the difference of just 100 parts per million by volume in CO2 concentration between an
interglacial temperature maximum and an ice-age temperature minimum causes “the difference between a nice
day and having a mile of ice above your head.” It does not. Gore’s implication has the effect of overstating the
mainstream consensus estimate of the effect of CO2 on temperature at least tenfold.
Temperature changes by up to 12 degrees C between glacial minima and interglacial maxima, but CO2
concentration changes by no more than 100 ppmv. Gore is accordingly implying that 100 ppmv can cause a
temperature increase of up to 12 degrees C. However, the consensus as expressed by the IPCC is that 100
ppmv of increased CO2 concentration, from 180 to 280 ppmv, would increase radiant energy flux in the
atmosphere by 2.33 watts per square meter, or less than 1.2 degrees Celsius including the effect of
temperature feedbacks.
ERROR 11
Hurricane Caterina "manmade"
Gore says that Hurricane Caterina, the only hurricane ever to strike the coast of Brazil, was caused by “global
warming.” It was not. In 2004, Brazil’s summer sea surface temperatures were cooler than normal, not warmer.
But air temperatures were the coldest in 25 years. The air was so much colder than the water that it caused a
heat flux from the water to the air similar to that which fuels hurricanes in warm seas.
ERROR 12
Japanese typhoons "a new record"
Gore says that 2004 set a new record for the number of typhoons striking Japan. It did not. The trend in the
number of typhoons, and of tropical cyclones, has fallen throughout the past 50 years. The trend in rainfall from
cyclones has also fallen, and there has been no trend in monsoon rainfall.
ERROR 13
Hurricanes "getting stronger"
Gore says scientists had been giving warnings that hurricanes will get stronger
because of “global warming.” They will not. Over the past 60 years there has
been no change in the strength of hurricanes, even though hydrocarbon use
went up six-fold in the same period. Research by Dr. Kerry Emanuel, cited by
Ms. Kreider, has been discredited by more recent findings that wind-shear
effects tend to nullify the amplification of hurricane strength which he had
suggested, and, of course, by the observed failure of hurricanes to gain
strength during the past 60 years of “global warming.”
ERROR 14
Big storm insurances losses "increasing"
Gore says insurance losses arising
from large storms and other
extreme-weather events are
increasing, by implication because
of “global warming.” They are not.
Insured losses, as a percentage of
the population of coastal areas in
the path of hurricanes, were lower
even in 2005 than they had been in
1925. In 2006, a very quiet
hurricane season, Lloyds of
London posted their biggest-ever
profit: £3.6 billion.
ERROR 15
Mumbai "flooding"
Gore says flooding in
Mumbai is increasing, by
implication because of
“global warming.” It is not.
Rainfall trends at the two
major weather stations in
Mumbai show no increase
in heavy rainfall over the
past 48 years.
ERROR 16
Severe tornadoes "more frequent"
Gore
says
that
2004 set an all-time record for tornadoes in the US. More tornadoes are being reported because detection
systems are better than they were. But the number of severe tornadoes has been falling for more than 50 years.
ERROR 17
The sun "heats the Arctic ocean"
Gore says that ice-melt allows the Sun to heat the Arctic Ocean, and a diagram shows the Sun’s rays heating it
directly. It does not. The ocean emits radiant energy at the moment of absorption, and would freeze if there
were no atmosphere. It is the atmosphere, not the Sun that warms the ocean. Also, Gore’s diagram confuses
the tropopause with the ionosphere, and he makes a number of other errors indicating that he does not
understand the elementary physics of radiative transfer.
ERROR 18
Arctic "warming fastest"
Gore says the Arctic has been
warming faster than the rest of
the planet. It is not. While it is
in general true that during
periods of warming (whether
natural or anthropogenic) the
Arctic will warm faster than
other regions, Gore does not
mention that the Arctic has
been cooling over the past 60
years, and is now one degree
Celsius cooler than it was in the 1940s. There was a record amount of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere
in 2001. Several vessels were icebound in the Arctic in the spring of 2007, but few newspapers reported this.
The newspapers reported that the North-West Passage was free of ice in 2007, and said that this was for the
first time since records began: but the records, taken by satellites, had only begun 29 years previously. The
North-West Passage had also been open for shipping in 1945, and, in 1903, the great Norwegian explorer
Amundsen had passed through it in a sailing ship.
ERROR 19
Greenland ice sheet "unstable"
Gore says “global warming” is making the Greenland ice sheet
unstable. It is not. Greenland ice grows 2in a year. The Greenland
ice sheet survived each of the previous three interglacial periods,
each of which was 5 degrees Celsius warmer than the present. It
survived atmospheric CO2 concentrations of up to 1000 ppmv
(compared with today’s 400 ppmv). It last melted 850,000 years
ago, when humankind did not exist and could not have caused the
melting. There is a close correlation between variations in Solar
activity and temperature anomalies in Greenland, but there is no
correlation between variations in CO2 concentration and
temperature changes in Greenland. The IPCC (2001) says that to
melt even half the Greenland ice sheet would require temperature
to rise by 5.5 degrees C and remain that high for several
thousand years.
ERROR 20
Himalayan glacial melt waters "failing"
Gore says 40% of the world’s population get their water supply from Himalayan glacial melt waters that are
failing because of “global warming.” They don’t and they are not. The water comes almost entirely from snowmelt, not from ice-melt. Over the past 40 years there has been no decline in the amount of snow-melt in
Eurasia.
ERROR 21
Peruvian glaciers "disappearing"
Gore says that a Peruvian glacier is less extensive now than it was in the 1940s, implying that “global warming”
is the cause. It is not. Except for the very highest peaks, the normal state of the Peruvian cordilleras has been
ice-free throughout most of the past 10,000 years.
ERROR 22
Mountain glaciers worldwide "disappearing"
Gore says that
“the ice has a
story to tell, and it
is worldwide.” He
shows several
before-and-after
pictures of
glaciers
disappearing.
However, the
glacial melt
began in the
1820s, long
before
humankind could
have had any
effect, and has
continued at a
uniform rate
since, showing
no acceleration
since humankind
began increasing the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere. Total ice volumes in three of the last four Ice Ages
were lower than they are today, and “global warming” had nothing to do with that.
ERROR 23
Sahara desert "drying"
Gore says terrible tragedies are occurring in the southern Sahara
because of drought which he blames on “global warming.” There is no
drought caused by “global warming.” In 2007 there were record rains
across the whole of the southern Sahara. In the past 25 years the
Sahara has shrunk by some 300,000 square kilometers because of
additional rainfall. Some scientists think “global warming” may actually
mitigate pre-existing droughts because there will be more water vapor
in the atmosphere. Before 1200 AD there were frequent, prolonged
and severe droughts in the Great Plains. Since 1200 AD, there has
been more rainfall. Likewise, the US has had more rainfall since the
1950s than it had in the earlier part of the 20th Century, when the great
droughts which were then common were described by John Steinbeck in The Grapes of Wrath. South African
rainfall was also more stable in the second half of the 20th Century, when human effect on climate is said to
have become significant, than in the first half.
ERROR 24
West Antarctic ice sheet "unstable"
Gore says disturbing changes
have been measured under the
West Antarctic ice sheet,
implicitly because of “global
warming.” Yet most of the
recession in this ice sheet over
the past 10,000 years has
occurred in the absence of any
sea-level or temperature
forcing. In most of Antarctica,
the ice is in fact growing
thicker. Mean Antarctic
temperature has actually fallen
throughout the past halfcentury. In some Antarctic
glens, environmental damage
has been caused by
temperature decreases of up to
2 degrees Celsius. Antarctic
sea-ice spread to a 30-year
record extent in late 2007.
ERROR 25
Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves "breaking up"
Gore says half a dozen ice shelves each “larger than Rhode Island” have broken up and vanished from the
Antarctic Peninsula recently, implicitly because of “global warming.” Global warming is unlikely to have been the
cause. Gore does not explain that the ice shelves have melted before, as studies of seabed sediments have
shown. The Antarctic Peninsula accounts for about 2% of the continent, in most of which the ice is growing
thicker. All the recently-melted shelves, added together, amount to an area less than one-fifty-fifth the size of
Texas.
ERROR 26
Larsen B Ice Shelf "broke up because of
'global warming'"
Gore focuses on the Larsen B ice shelf, saying that it completely disappeared in 35 days. Yet there has been
extensive ice-shelf break-up throughout the past 10,000 years, and the maximum ice-shelf extent may have
been in the Little Ice Age in the late 15th century.
ERROR 27
Mosquitoes "climbing to higher altitudes"
Gore says that,
because of
“global
warming”,
mosquitoes are
climbing to
higher altitudes.
They are not.
Most recent
outbreaks have
been at lower
levels than those
of a century and
more ago. He
says that Nairobi
was founded
1000 m above sea level so as to be above the mosquito line. It was not. In the period before anthropogenic
warming could have had any significant effect, there were ten malaria outbreaks in Nairobi, one of which
reached as far up as Eldoret, almost 3000 m above sea level. Malaria is not a tropical disease. Mosquitoes do
not need tropical temperatures: they need no more than 15 degrees Celsius to breed. The largest malaria
outbreak of modern times was in Siberia in the 1920s and 1930s, when 13 million were infected, 600,000 died
and 30,000 died as far north as Arkhangelsk, on the Arctic Circle. There is no reason to suppose that malaria
will spread even if the climate continues to become warmer.
ERROR 28
Many tropical diseases "spread through
'global warming'"
Gore says that, as well as malaria, “global warming” is spreading dengue fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus,
arena virus, avian flu, Ebola virus, E. Coli 0157:H7, Hanta virus, legionella, leptospirosis, multi-drug-resistant
TB, Nipah virus, SARS and Vibrio Cholerae 0139. It is doing no such thing. Only the first four diseases are
insect-borne, but none is tropical. Of the other diseases named by Gore either in his film or in the
accompanying book, not one is sensitive to increasing temperature. They are spread not by warmer weather
but by rats, chickens, primates, pigs, poor hygiene, ill-maintained air conditioning, or cold weather.
ERROR 29
West Nile virus in the US "spread through
'global warming'"
Gore says that West Nile virus spread throughout the US in just two years, implicitly because of “global
warming.” It did not. The climate in the US ranges from some of the world’s hottest deserts to some of its iciest
tundra. West Nile virus flourishes in any climate. Warming of the climate, however caused, does not affect its
incidence or prevalence.
ERROR 30
Carbon dioxide is "pollution"
Gore describes carbon dioxide as “global warming pollution.” It is not. It is food for plants and trees. Tests have
shown that even at concentrations 30 times those of the present day even the most delicate plants flourish.
Well-managed forests, such as those of the United States, are growing at record rates because the extra
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is feeding the trees. Carbon dioxide, in geological timescale, is at a very low
concentration at present. Half a billion years ago it was at 7000 parts per million by volume, about 18 times
today’s concentration.
ERROR 31
The European heat wave of 2003 "killed 35,000"
Gore says, “A couple of years ago in Europe they had that heat wave that killed 35,000.” Though some
scientists agree with Gore, the scientific consensus is that extreme warm anomalies more unusual than the
2003 heat wave occur regularly; extreme cold anomalies also occur regularly; El Niño and volcanism appear to
be of much greater importance than any general warming trend; and there is little evidence that regional heat or
cold waves are significantly increasing or decreasing with time. In general, warm is better than cold, which is
why the largest number of life-forms are in the tropics and the least number are at the poles. A cold snap in the
winter following the European heat wave killed 20,000 in the UK alone. Though the IPCC says 150,000 people
a year are being killed worldwide by “global warming,” it reaches this figure only by deliberately excluding the
number of people who are not being killed because there is less cold weather. In the US alone, it has been
estimated that 174,000 fewer people are being killed each year because there are fewer episodes of extreme
cold.
ERROR 32
Pied flycatchers "cannot feed their young"
Gore says “The peak arrival date for migratory birds 25 years ago was April 25. Their chicks hatched on June 3,
just at the time when the caterpillars were coming out: Nature’s plan. But 20 years of warming later the
caterpillars peaked two weeks earlier. The chicks tried to catch up with it, but they couldn’t. So they are in
trouble.” Yet adaptation is easy for the flycatchers: they merely fly a few tens of kilometers further north and
they will find caterpillars hatching at the appropriate time. Besides, though Gore does not say so, what is bad
news for the pied flycatchers is good news for the caterpillars, and for the butterflies they will become.
ERROR 33
Gore's bogus pictures and film footage
In the book accompanying Gore’s film, the story of the pied flycatchers and the caterpillars is accompanied by a
picture of a bird feeding her hungry chicks. However, closer inspection shows that the bird is not a pied
flycatcher but a black tern; and that she is not carrying a caterpillar in her beak, but a small fish. Gore similarly
misuses spectacular footage of a glacier apparently calving off enormous slabs of ice into the sea – footage
that is often shown on television to accompany stories about “global warming.” However, the glacier in question
is one that is known to be advancing – and to be doing so more rapidly and more often than previously. It is in
southern Argentina, where its snout crosses – and eventually dams, Lake Argentino. Water builds up behind
the ice dam and eventually bursts it, causing the spectacular collapse of ice into the lake that is so misleadingly
used as the iconic image of the effect of “global warming” on glaciers. The breaking of the ice dam used to
occur every eight years or so: now, however, it occurs every five years, not because of “global warming”
because of the regional cooling of the southern Atlantic.
ERROR 34
The Thames Barrier "closing more frequently"
Gore says that rising sea levels are compelling the operators of the Thames Barrier to close it more frequently
than when it was first built. They are not. The barrier is indeed closed more frequently than when it was built,
but the reason has nothing to do with “global warming” or rising sea levels. The reason is a change of policy by
which the barrier is closed during exceptionally low tides, so as to retain water in the tidal Thames rather than
keeping it out. Yet even the present leader of the official Opposition in the UK Parliament recently used a major
speech as the opportunity to mention today’s more frequent closing of the Thames Barrier as though it were a
matter of grave concern.
ERROR 35
"No fact...in dispute by anybody."
Gore says that his prediction that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will rise to more than 600
parts per million by volume as soon as 2050 is “not controversial in any way or in dispute by anybody.”
However, not one of the half-dozen official projections of growth in CO2 concentration made by the IPCC
shows as much as 600 parts per million by 2050.
Conclusion
35 serious scientific
errors
As many as 35 serious scientific errors or exaggerations, all pointing towards invention of a threat that
does not exist at all, or exaggerations of phenomena that do exist, do not reflect credit on the presenter of the
movie or on those who advised him. The movie is unsuitable for showing to children, and provides no basis for
taking policy decisions. Schools that have shown the movie to children are urged to ensure that the errors listed
in this memorandum are drawn to the children’s attention.
[1] For a detailed discussion, see (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_originals/
current_issues_in_climate_science_focus....html) and also (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/
sppi_reprint_series/the_role_of_greenland_in_sea_level_rise....html)
[1] See (http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20060331_issues.pdf)
[1] See: (http://ff.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=336&Itemid=77)
[1] See discussion at: (http://www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/Kiliman-MAC-4-8-04.pdf)
[1] For a serioius examination of this issue, see (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_reprint_series/
polar_bears_of_western_hudson_bay_and....html)
[1] Are Coral Reefs Endangered by Global Warming? (http://ff.org/index.php?
option=com_content&task=view&id=382&Itemid=77)
[1] For a discussion of future hurricane trends for Florida, see: (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/
sppi_originals/current_issues_in_climate_science_focus_on....html)
[1] For an in depth look at these issues, see (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/hurricanethreat.
html)
[1] For a discussion of the sun’s role in climate, see (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_originals/
the_unruly_sunne_cannot_be_ruled_out_as_a_cause....html)
[1] See: (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_originals/current_issues_in_climate_science_focus...
html)
[1] For fuller discussion of Polar regions and Greenland, see: (http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/
sppi_originals/current_issues_in_climate_science_focus_on_the_poles.html)
[1] Discussion by world-class expert and IPCC reviewer: (http://ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/reiter-climatechange-mbd.pdf)
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35 Inconvenient Truths: The errors in Al Gore`s movie

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