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® Volume Seven Number Four Q4 2007 Published by Mitchell International, Inc. Industry Trends Report In this issue: Quarterly Feature: “Measuring Alternate Parts Usage” The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook Plus a Special Editor’s Feature Article: “Will the Soon-to-Come Chinese Cars Affect Salvage Prices?” Motor Vehicle Markets New Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales Price Movements by Market Class Current Events in the Collision Industry U.S. Auto Facts At-A-Glance Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data Average Appraisal Values Parts Analysis Paint & Materials Labor Analysis Adjustments Total Losses J.D. Power & Associates: Facts, Figures, Trends Total Loss Canadian Collision Summary Casualty Statistics About Mitchell Mitchell News Releases Mitchell Brand Advertising at Work Industry Trends The Industry Trends Report is a quarterly snapshot of the auto physical damage collision and casualty industries. Just inside—the economy, industry highlights, plus illuminating statistics and measures, and more. Stay informed on ongoing and emerging trends impacting the industry, and you, with the Industry Trends Report! Report Questions or comments about the Industry Trends Report may be directed to: Volume Seven Number Four Q4 2007 Published by Mitchell International, Inc. Mitchell International is a leading provider of information, workflow, and performance management solutions to the automotive insurance and collision repair industries—serving carriers, collision shops, and other commercial participants in the physical damage and auto-related medical claims markets. Mitchell facilitates millions of electronic transactions between more than 16,000 business partners each month to enhance their productivity, profitability, and customer satisfaction levels. For more information on Mitchell International, please visit our website at www.mitchell.com. Table of Contents 3 Quarterly Features : “Measuring Alternate Parts Usage” 6 Special Editor’s Feature Article : “ Will the Soon-to-Come Chinese Cars Affect Salvage Prices?” 8 The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook 10 Current Events in the Collision Industry 15 Motor Vehicle Markets New Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales Price Movements by Market Class 17 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data Average Appraisal Values Collision Losses Comprehensive Losses Third-Party Auto Property Damage Supplements Parts Analysis Paint & Materials Labor Analysis Adjustments Total Losses 21 23 25 26 U.S. Auto Facts At-A-Glance J.D. Power & Associates: Facts, Figures, Trends Total Loss Canadian Collision Summary Greg Horn Editor in Chief, Vice President of Industry Relations [email protected] For distribution and circulation questions, or requests for back issues, please contact: Regina Merkey Managing Editor, Marketing Communications Specialist Distribution and Circulation (858) 578-6550, ext. 8146 e-mail: [email protected] Additional Contributors: Manheim analytics provided by Thomas C. Webb, Chief Economist at Manheim Auctions. Webb has been associated with the used vehicle market for more than 26 years, including serving as Senior Manager at a professional services firm’s global automotive practice, and Chief Economist for one of the industry’s largest national trade organizations. PIN Insights published by Power Information Network®, a division of J.D. Power and Associates. © 2006 by J.D. Power and Associates®, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Industry Trends Report is published by Mitchell International, Inc. ® The information contained in this publication was obtained from sources deemed reliable. However, Mitchell International, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Canada Appraisal Severity Canada Parts Utilization Vehicle Age and ACV’s 30 Collision Casualty Statistics 31 About Mitchell International, Inc. News Releases Q3-2007 Mitchell Brand Advertising at Work Mitchell Industry Trends Report 2 Quarterly Feature Measuring Alternate Parts Usage By jamison day Senior Director, Information Solutions—Mitchell International Alternate Parts Usage (APU) has been a popular area of focus for the collision repair industry over the past few years, not surprising given that parts can typically make up over 40% of the dollars of a repair. APU is the choosing of less expensive parts of equal quality over parts from the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) and includes parts categories of Aftermarket, Recycled or Like Kind Quality (LKQ) and Remanufactured. This article examines the different methodologies for measuring APU and the pros and cons of each. Many of Mitchell’s clients have adopted APU as a key metric that they measure, track and attempt to affect over time. A recent analysis conducted by Mitchell International shows there has been a marked increase in APU over the past few years. (See Figure 1.) 25% 23% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 APU as a % of part dollars 2005 2006 Jamison Day Senior Director, Information Solutions, Mitchell International Jamison has over 15 years of experience in Information Technology, Management Consulting, Business Operations and Data Analytics. He joined Mitchell in 2004, serving in sales and customer service management roles before becoming Sr. Director of Information Solutions. He now oversees Mitchell’s Data Management, Reporting and Analysis products as well as leading the Business Analytics group which provides customized analytical services to Mitchell’s customers. Figure 1: Alternate Parts Usage 2003-2007 30% About the author… 2007 APU as a % of part counts As a percent of dollars, APU has increased over 8% since 2003 (from 23% to 25%) and appears to be reaching a plateau and even slightly declining this year. As a percent of actual part counts, however, the change has been much more dramatic: APU has increased nearly 28% since 2003 (from 18% to 23%). APU has clearly increased over time, but here we see the differing results using the two APU metrics. APU – Percent of Dollars The most common method of calculating APU is to divide the total amount of dollars spent on alternate parts (the sum of aftermarket, recycled and remanufactured) by the total amount of dollars spent on ALL parts. This methodology is attractive since it gives a higher mathematical weight to the more expensive parts and ultimately is an indication of where parts dollars are actually being spent. The inherent flaw in this methodology is best shown through an ironic example. Prior to Mitchell, Jamison worked for Boston Idealab, a technology incubator, AT Kearney Management Consulting in Atlanta and several Internet companies in San Francisco. He received a Mechanical Engineering degree from Cornell and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Example: A repair requires replacing two parts. It is determined that the first part must be replaced using an OEM part costing $500, and, with the second part, there is a choice between a $300 part from a nearby aftermarket parts vendor or the same part for $500 from a remote vendor. Part 1 Cost Part 2 Cost Total Parts Cost APU (% of $) Choice A $500 $300 $800 37.5% Choice B $500 $500 $1,000 50.0% Mitchell Industry Trends Report 3 Quarterly Feature : Measuring Alternate Parts Usage (con’t.) The better alternative for this repair is clearly Choice A, but the APU% would actually be higher using Choice B. In this case, a simple, blind focus on increasing APU would lead one to make the wrong decision. APU – Percent of Part Count Another method of calculating APU is to divide the total number of alternate parts (aftermarket, recycled and remanufactured) by the total number of ALL parts. This methodology avoids the problem illustrated in the example above and is quite simple to understand since it involves just counting the number of times an alternate part was used. This methodology, however, has two flaws. First, of course, not all parts have the same price. Thus, a repairer could frequently choose to utilize alternate parts for relatively inexpensive parts, like tail-lights, but always choose OEM for highly expensive parts, like steering gears or alloy wheels. Although the APU metric might be high, it would not be indicative of the amount of dollars actually spent on APU. The second problem with this methodology involves the choosing of assemblies versus individual parts. In many cases, a repairer will select alternate parts in the form of recycled assemblies instead of individual OEM parts. Imagine an example where a door shell, a handle and a mirror needed to be replaced. Choosing all OEM parts would result in a part count of three versus choosing one recycled door assembly. In the latter case, the repairer would only “get APU credit” for a part count of one. APU – Versus “What You Would have Spent” So how accurate are these metrics and which one is better? In an attempt to answer this question, we next explored how the two APU metrics relate to what we would consider a “perfect-world” metric. Although difficult to measure and track with today’s information systems, one could envision measuring what a repairer spent on parts versus what they would have spent if they had chosen to replace ALL the required parts with OEM parts. By choosing a random data set of estimators and estimates and cross referencing that against Mitchell’s extensive database of parts prices, we were able to calculate that metric and determine the total part dollars that would have been spent if the entirety of parts in these sample estimates had been replaced with OEM parts. Next, by comparing what was actually spent on parts against this all-OEM amount, the net parts cost differential was computed. Finally, this cost differential for each estimator was plotted against the currentlyused two APU metrics to see whether there was a strong correlation between higher APU and net part cost differential. (See Figures 2 & 3.) Figure 2: APU (as % of Dollars) versus Part Cost Differential* Percent Parts Cost Differential 30% 25% 2 R = 0.71 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% APU Percent of Dollars *NOTE: A random sampling of 150 estimators from the Northeast region and their repairable estimates was taken from June of 2007. Approximately ten thousand selected estimates where analyzed for these figures. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 4 Quarterly Feature : Measuring Alternate Parts Usage (con’t.) Figure 3: APU (as % of Part Count) versus Part Cost Differential* Percent Parts Cost Differential 30% 2 R = 0.77 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% APU Percent of Part Count Here we see a clear relationship between the two APU metrics and the “perfect-world” metric—part cost differential. Both metrics have a high correlation factor (R Squared) with APU—Percent of Part Count slightly higher at 77% versus APU—Percent of Part Dollars of 71%. The results here show exactly what was expected—the higher the APU, the higher the parts cost differential. What is less obvious and perhaps more interesting is that the two APU metrics appear to have an almost equivalent accuracy in predicting this cost differential. Conclusion In this article, we have shown that the use of alternate parts has increased significantly over the past few years with the rate of change slowing and leveling since 2005. We defined the two popular APU metrics—APU as a percent of dollars and as a percent of part counts—and have illustrated via invented scenarios that these metrics have inherent flaws. However, by comparing APU metrics against a more relevant measurement, we have shown unequivocally that higher APU predicts higher levels of part cost differential. Thus, we conclude that the two common APU metrics are relevant and valid. “What is less obvious is that the two APU metrics appear to have an almost equivalent accuracy in predicting this cost differential. We conclude the two common APU metrics are relevant and valid.” As is often the case with any measurement and tracking methodology, there is no one right answer. Rather, repair process managers must use a collection of metrics to properly evaluate performance and understand the inherent flaws and possible inaccuracies in each of these metrics. They must strive to not only look at the numbers, but also understand the methodologies employed to compute those numbers and, in the end, make sure that they and their teams are making the right repair decisions using common sense and good business practices. Editor’s Note: With an increasing focus on parts in the collision repair industry, Mitchell has conducted a number of analyses around parts usage, APU and other parts-relevant topics. Look for more articles around the topic of parts in upcoming editions of the Mitchell Industry Trends Report. *NOTE: A random sampling of 150 estimators from the Northeast region and their repairable estimates was taken from June of 2007. Approximately ten thousand selected estimates where analyzed for these figures. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 5 Special : Editor’s Feature Article Will the Soon-to-Come Chinese Cars Affect Salvage Prices? By greg horn Vice President of Industry Relations—Mitchell International Delays coming to the U.S. A few years ago, Malcolm Bricklin boldly stated that he would import Chinese cars to the U.S. by 2007. Bricklin is responsible for bringing Subarus to the U.S. in the 1960’s, his own Bricklin SV-1 (“SV” stood for safety vehicle) in the mid 1970’s, and Yugos in the 1980’s. With Bricklin’s track record and reputation for unrealistic predictions, it’s no surprise that he has now extended that date by a few years. With the recent well-publicized release of poor crash test results from both Russia and Germany, some Chinese auto executives have now said that it could be as late as 2020 before Chinese-designed and manufactured vehicles can readily enter the U.S. market. Most likely, these Chinese-made cars will eventually arrive in the U.S. through a joint venture between a Chinese manufacturer and Chrysler or Volkswagen via the assembly of ‘knockdowns’—vehicle component kits that are assembled in a factory, primarily to take advantage of inexpensive labor. Although the insurance and collision repair industries will not have to face the problem created by the influx of low-value vehicles—oftentimes totaled even in moderate collisions—for a few more years, the impact may be felt earlier than expected. (Remember how easily brand new Yugos totaled out in parking lot accidents?) Will rapid expansion in the Third World affect U.S. salvage values? By simply looking at the number of Chinese vehicles exported to African and Latin American countries, it is clear that the market is feeling the impact of what could be the first of many ripples. The Chinese have begun exporting cars to these developing countries, which have fewer safety regulations and do not mandate airbags. These vehicles have taken each market by storm and in the process have taken a huge share away from used and rebuilt European salvage vehicles, particularly from port countries like Belgium and Holland. As sales of Chinese vehicles continue to rise, will this have a chilling effect on our own robust international salvage market? International salvage impact by the numbers, according to Copart Auto Auctions: • 61.2% of vehicle sales are influenced by international bidders • 26% of salvage vehicles are sold to international buyers About the author… Greg Horn Vice President of Industry Relations, Mitchell International Greg Horn joined Mitchell International in September of 2006 as Vice President of Industry Relations. In this role, Greg assists the Mitchell sales force in providing custom tailored business solutions to the auto collision industry. He provides guidance to Mitchell’s Product Management and Business Analytics teams, playing an important role in shaping Mitchell’s solution portfolio to ensure that it meets the evolving needs of current and future clients. Greg also presents Mitchell’s Industry Trends Updates at conferences across the country. Prior to joining Mitchell, Greg served as Vice President of Material Damage Claims at GMAC Insurance, where he was responsible for all aspects of the physical damage claims process and the implementation of a unique vehicle replacement program along with serving on the GM Safety Committee. Prior to GMAC, Greg served as Director of Material Damage Processes for National Grange Mutual in Keene, NH. • 35% of salvage vehicles sold list international buyers as the 2nd highest bidders Do these statistics illustrate that the influx of Chinese vehicles could potentially reduce international demands for rebuildable salvage vehicles and significantly impact the record returns seen in recent years? Not necessarily, according to Rob Vannuccini, Senior Vice President of Marketing at Copart, Inc. “We have not seen an impact on returns from the influx of these cars from China, and it is important to note that China is a very large buyer of salvage.” Mitchell Industry Trends Report 6 Special : Editor’s Feature Article : Will the Soon-to-Come Chinese Cars Affect Salvage Prices? (con’t.) Is it possible that the full impact has not been seen yet because this recent influx is just the beginning? Consider the reality that the current volume of Chinese cars and trucks exported to Africa is minimal but is growing quickly. Sixty-one thousand vehicles were shipped in the first five months of 2007, more than double the number shipped abroad in the same period in 2006 according to the Wall Street Journal. The fact that Chinese vehicle exports to the West African nation of Senegal have risen 18-fold to $7.9 million from $434,000 since 2003 is a staggering example of how quickly Chinese imports can grow and impact exports from other countries. In contrast, the number of used cars shipped from the port of Antwerp in Belgium to Senegal has fallen over twothirds from 9,446 to 2,727. This trend is a sign of the significant change that is taking place in the market. You may be among those who think that because Africa is another continent that is so far away, the impact will be small. Perhaps, but if we consider what has happened in Africa within such a short time, and we turn our attention to our neighbors in Mexico, the scenario sounds very similar. Zhongxing Automobiles plans to export 20,000 vehicles, primarily SUV’s and pickups, to Mexico next year. The Zhongxing Landmark SUV will sell in Mexico for the equivalent of a mere $12,000 USD, and the Admiral pickup will sell for considerably less. (If you’ve watched auctions on the West Coast, you know that many of the pickup and SUV salvage buyers are not from the U.S.) Zhongxing Admiral Pickup Zhongxing Landmark SUV Don Hermanek, Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing at Insurance Auto Auctions, Inc. doesn’t believe these exports will have much effect. “Because we have globalized the salvage market, we have over 125 international buyers from many countries. I don’t think the entry of low cost Chinese cars will have much effect on salvage sales. Furthermore, I think it will be a long time before low cost Chinese vehicles take hold in markets like Mexico.” “If we consider what has happened in Africa, and we turn our attention to our neighbors in Mexico, the scenario sounds very familiar.” The export of Chinese-made cars into the U.S. appears to be years off, and the two largest U.S. salvage vendors do not see the influx of low cost Chinese vehicles in Third World countries having an impact on their global salvage business. They predict that the market demand will continue for rebuildable salvage because the buyer base is global and not limited to a few countries that currently import Chinese vehicles. It remains to be seen if this will affect the smaller regional salvage seller who relies on Mexican buyers to purchase rebuildable salvage. Will they feel the impact of these low cost Chinese vehicles being exported to neighboring countries? Mitchell Industry Trends Report 7 The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook According to a statement released on October 9, 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to approve a 50 basis point reduction to the target for the federal funds rate, bringing the rate to 4-3/4 percent (4.75%). While inflation has improved slightly, the economic outlook appears to be uncertain. Evolving market developments and other factors will play a role in the advancement of future economic prospects. After expanding at a robust pace in July, retail sales rose at a somewhat slower rate in August. Orders and shipments of capital goods posted solid gains in July. However, residential investment weakened further, even before the recent disruptions in mortgage markets. In addition, private payrolls posted only a small gain in August, and manufacturing production decreased after gains in the previous two months. Meanwhile, core inflation rose a bit from the low rates observed in the spring but remained moderate through July. Private nonfarm payroll employment rose only modestly in August, and the levels of employment in June and July were revised down. The weakness in employment was spread fairly widely across industries. Residential construction and manufacturing posted noticeable declines in jobs, employment in wholesale trade and transportation was little changed, and hiring at business services was well below recent trends. After posting solid gains in June and July, total industrial production edged up only a bit in August. This increase was attributable to a surge in electricity generation, as temperatures swung from mild in July to very warm in August. After large gains in the preceding two months, manufacturing output declined in August, held down by a decrease in the production of motor vehicles and parts. High-tech output rose only modestly in August, but production gains in June and July were revised up considerably. Consumer spending appeared to have strengthened early in the summer from its subdued second-quarter pace. Although auto sales were weak in July, real outlays for other goods rose briskly. At the same time, spending on services was up moderately despite a drop in outlays for energy associated with relatively cool weather in the eastern part of the United States. In August, consumption appeared to have posted another solid gain. Although nominal retail sales outside the motor vehicle sector were about flat (abstracting from a drop in nominal sales at gasoline stations associated with falling gas prices), vehicle sales stepped up and warmer weather likely caused an increase in energy usage. The housing sector remained exceptionally weak. Home sales had dropped considerably this year: Sales of new and existing single-family homes in July were down substantially from their averages over the second half of last year. Demand was restrained by deteriorating conditions in the subprime mortgage market and by an increase in rates for thirty-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages. In the nonconforming mortgage market, the availability of financing to borrowers recently appeared to have been crimped even further. Most forward-looking indicators of housing demand, including an index of pending home sales, pointed to a further deterioration in sales in the near term. Single-family starts slid in July to their lowest reading since 1996, and adjusted permit issuance continued on a downward trajectory. Although single-family housing starts had come down substantially from their peak, the drop had lagged the decline in demand, and as a result, inventories of new homes had risen considerably. In the multifamily sector, starts in July were in line with readings thus far this year and at the low end of the fairly narrow range seen since 1997. Meanwhile, house prices generally continued to decelerate. Orders and shipments of capital goods posted a strong gain early in the third quarter. In particular, orders and shipments of equipment outside the high-tech and transportation sector registered a robust increase in July, and data on computer production and shipments of high-tech goods pointed to solid increases in business demand for high-tech. In contrast, indicators of spending for transportation equipment were mixed. While fleet sales of light vehicles appeared to have moved up in July and August, sales of medium and heavy trucks remained below the secondquarter average. More generally, surveys of business conditions suggested that increases in business activity were somewhat slower in August than in the second quarter. Information on the economy and short-term energy outlook was obtained from the US Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). For more information, or to view original source materials, visit: www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC or www.eia.doe.gov Mitchell Industry Trends Report 8 The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook (con't.) Book-value data for the manufacturing and trade sectors excluding motor vehicles and parts suggested that inventory accumulation stepped down noticeably in July from the second-quarter pace. Inventories of light motor vehicles rose again in July and August. The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed slightly in July, as exports increased more than imports. Sharp increases in exports of both aircraft and automobiles contributed importantly to the overall gain. Exports of agricultural products and consumer goods were also strong. In contrast, exports of industrial supplies and semiconductors exhibited declines. The value of imported goods and services was boosted by a large increase in imports of automotive products. Higher imports of capital goods excluding aircraft, computers, and semiconductors and of oil also contributed to the overall gain in imports. After rapid price increases earlier this year, U.S. headline consumer price inflation was moderate in both June and July. Although food prices continued their string of sizable increases, energy prices fell in June and July and gasoline prices appear to have dropped further in August. Core PCE prices rose 0.2 percent in June and 0.1 percent in July. On a twelve-month-change basis, core PCE inflation in July was below the comparable rate twelve months earlier. Step-downs in price inflation for prescription drugs, motor vehicles, and nonmarket services accounted for nearly all of the deceleration in core PCE prices. It is estimated that real GDP increased at a moderate rate in the third quarter. However, the increase is not estimated to continue in the fourth-quarter, possibly due to the recent financial turbulence imposing restraint on economic activity in coming months—particularly in the housing sector. A modest increase in unemployment is also expected, and softer demand for homes amid a reduction in the availability of mortgage credit will likely curtail construction activity through the middle of next year. Moreover, lower housing wealth, slower gains in employment and income, and reduced confidence seem likely to restrain consumer spending in 2008. With credit markets expected to largely recover over coming quarters, growth of real GDP is projected to firm in 2009 to a pace a bit above the rate of growth of its potential. Headline PCE inflation, which was boosted by sizable increases in energy and food prices earlier in the year, is expected to slow in 2008 and 2009. During this average winter-season (October 1 to March 31), U.S. prices and expenditures for all space-heating fuels are projected to be higher than winter 2006-2007. And, According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, winter in the lower-48 States is forecast to be 4 percent colder compared with last winter but 2 percent warmer than the 30-year average (1971 to 2000). Reflecting movements in projected crude oil prices, regular grade gasoline prices are projected to continue to average $2.75 per gallon in 2007 and $2.83 per gallon in 2008. While the difference between the price of gasoline and the cost of crude is expected to be lower next summer than this past summer, this spread is expected to remain relatively high on an historical basis, and, along with high crude prices, result in gasoline prices projected to again average more than $3 per gallon by next May. Continued low surplus production capacity, weak petroleum inventories, and strong demand worldwide have all contributed to recent high crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are projected to decline from their recent peak above $80 per barrel, but monthly average prices are expected to remain above $70 per barrel throughout the forecast period. China, Brazil, the United States, and Middle East countries are expected to remain the main engines of oil consumption growth. World oil consumption in the fourth quarter of 2007 is projected to be 1.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) above fourth-quarter 2006 levels. World oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2008. Information on the economy and short-term energy outlook was obtained from the US Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA). For more information, or to view original source materials, visit: www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC or www.eia.doe.gov Mitchell Industry Trends Report 9 Current Events in the Collision Industry PPG Sells Auto Glass Businesses to Private Investment Firm Excerpted from: CollisionWeek—September 2007 PPG Industries has signed an agreement to sell its OEM and replacement auto glass businesses to Platinum Equity of Beverly Hills, Calif., a privately owned investment group. The deal also includes PPG’s insurance glass claim processing company, LYNX Services. PPG said the total sales price for the businesses is approximately $500 million before minority interest. Some in the auto glass industry had expected PPG to sell the business to an existing industry participant such as Belron, who acquired Safelite in March, or more likely, the Michigan based glass manufacturer, Guardian Industries, according to the glass industry trade publication GlassBytes. Completion of the transaction is expected in the fourth quarter and is subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of required regulatory approvals. “This transaction is a significant milestone in PPG’s continued transformation to focus on coatings and specialty products, and it will significantly reduce PPG’s exposure to the U.S. automotive market,” said Charles E. Bunch, PPG chairman and chief executive officer. “This sale will also provide us with more resources to pursue profitable growth in coatings, aerospace, optical products and opportunities in Asia.” Platinum Equity has purchased dozens of companies since its founding in 1995 and owns well known names such as USRobotics and American Racing Equipment. NHTSA Signs Cooperative Agreement with China on Auto Safety Excerpted from: CollisionWeek—September 2007 The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to strengthen the relationship between the two countries in the area of motor vehicle safety and to improve enforcement standards. “We are strengthening the lines of communication and cooperation to improve the safety of vehicles and automotive equipment in both our countries,” said NHTSA Administrator Nicole R. Nason. “This agreement will also help us to better enforce our standards.” The bilateral arrangement, formally signed between NHTSA and China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), sets out a range of cooperative goals, including developing safety standards for automotive equipment and enforcing those standards. The MOC also encourages developing and disseminating consumer information, developing and sharing automotive safety research and sharing efforts on improving vehicle fuel economy. After a signing ceremony at the Department of Transportation headquarters in Washington, DC, the Chinese delegation and NHTSA officials exchanged information on requirements and procedures used in both countries to ensure compliance with automotive safety standards, as well as the processes involved in conducting safety investigations and recalling vehicles and motor vehicle equipment. AN EDITOR’S NOTE… The arrival of Chinese vehicles in the U.S. seems inevitable, and this agreement is an important step in assuring that Chinese cars not only protect their owners in case of an accident, but it also helps identify safety defects and establishes a recall mechanism to prevent potential equipment safety issues. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 10 Current Events in the Collision Industry (con't.) EPA Completes Draft of Proposed Paint Regulation Excerpted from: CollisionWeek—September 2007 Long awaited rule adds new requirements for spray booths, spray guns, ongoing training and annual reporting for every repair facility in the country. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has posted the draft of its soon to be published regulation establishing new requirements for automotive refinish designed to reduce the emission of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) by the industry. The EPA is concerned with the release of toxic metal compounds that contain cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese and nickel. The rule establishes specific requirements designed to reduce the release of these HAPs that includes spray booth specifications, spray gun efficiency standards, gun cleaning procedures, reporting requirements and ongoing painter training for anyone who sprays coatings. Not yet published in the Federal Register, the rule will first be subject to a 30 day public comment period before being finalized and made effective. Rules Summary AN EDITOR’S NOTE… I support this proposed regulation because it is balanced. It addresses training, equipment and enforcement, which I believe will ultimately increase refinish efficiency, protect the painter and reduce pollutants in the environment. According to the draft, all shops will be responsible for meeting the following requirements: 1. Certify that all painters have completed hands-on training in the proper application of surface coatings. The training must cover specific items such as spray gun setup, surface prep, spray booth and filter maintenance, transfer efficiency, environmental compliance and more. Spraying coatings is prohibited by persons who are not certified, with an exception made for students learning to spray in an accredited program and supervised by an instructor who is certified according to these rules. Painters must be certified within 60 days of hire and recertified every five years. Training certification goes with the painter, not the shop. 2. Spray booths for the painting of entire vehicles are required to be fully enclosed with “four complete walls” and a “full roof” and a filter system fitted with polyester fiber or fiberglass filters (or equivalent) that is demonstrated to achieve at least 98 percent capture of paint overspray. The booth must also be ventilated at negative pressure. Prep stations for painting parts or vehicle subassemblies must have a full roof, at least three complete walls or complete side curtains, and must be ventilated so that air is drawn into the booth. 3. All spray-applied coatings must be applied with a high-volume, low-pressure (HVLP) spray gun, electrostatic application, or a technology with a transfer efficiency equivalent to an HVLP spray gun. 4. All paint spray gun cleaning must be done with either non-HAP gun cleaning solvents, or with a fully enclosed spray gun cleaner. Hand cleaning of parts with HAP-containing solvent is permitted but spraying solvent through the gun is prohibited. The EPA is proposing to allow two years from the date the rule is published for all shops to come into compliance with these rules. The Cost to Shops In conducting its field research for this rule, the EPA found that training of the painter is essential in achieving a high rate of transfer efficiency. The regulator specifically noted the effectiveness of the Spray Technique Analysis and Research (STAR) program study which originated at the University of Northern Iowa Waste Reduction Center. It also noted similarly effective training by I-CAR and paint system manufacturers. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 11 Current Events in the Collision Industry (con't.) The good news is that the EPA estimates that the proposed standards, though perhaps requiring some initial investment in equipment and training, will have no net annual cost to the shops. The EPA believes the initial cost of complying with the proposed standards would be off-set and recovered over time by cost savings as a result of more efficient use of labor and materials. For example, the initial costs for training and more efficient spray guns would be more than offset by the savings realized through reduced paint consumption. The estimated cost for training, the EPA estimates, is $1,000 per painter, which covers tuition cost and labor cost for 16 hours of training time. Using census data, the EPA estimates that about 18,000 painters would need to be trained every year on an ongoing basis. Data from the STAR training programs indicate that painters who complete this training can decrease the amount of coating sprayed by about 20 percent per job. Doing the math, the EPA estimates that the cost of training over five years would be covered if the facility only reduced its coatings use by one percent. EPA estimates that about 5,000 facilities would need to purchase and install an enclosed spray gun washer at a cost of about $1,800 for each facility. However, the EPA notes that this cost would be offset over time by reduced labor to clean spray guns and reduced costs for solvent purchase and disposal. Spray gun washers are automated and are also capable of reusing solvent to minimize solvent consumption and waste disposal. The proposed standards specify that certain types of filters have to be used on the spray booth exhaust, and these filters are not addressed by current OSHA standards. Some shops may need to replace their current filters for ones with higher paint overspray capture efficiency, but the higher efficiency filters are readily available and will not result in an additional cost. The EPA estimates the annual cost for recordkeeping and reporting would only average about $220 per facility per year, however the EPA estimates that about 5,000 surface coating operations would need to install new spray booths to comply with the proposed standards. The Automotive Service Association (ASA) has been very involved, along with many other industry participants, with the EPA on the development of this rule. Bob Redding, ASA’s Washington, D.C., representative said, “ASA leaders are reviewing the regulation and will submit comments within the formal comment period.” Efficiency = Savings Conventional high-pressure air atomized spray guns have a typical transfer efficiency of about 30 percent. That means that for every gallon of coating sprayed, only 0.30 gallon reaches the part being coated. The remaining 0.70 gallon misses the part and either lands on the booth walls and floor or is pulled into the spray booth filters. To get one gallon on the car, a conventional spray gun needs to use 3 1/3 gallons of coating. HVLP and other types of high-efficiency spray guns use lower air pressures and achieve transfer efficiencies of about 50 percent, or greater, with appropriate operator training. To get one gallon on the car, a high efficiency spray gun needs to use only 2 gallons of coating. The increased transfer efficiency leads to a 40 percent decrease in coating consumption (and cost) compared to conventional spray guns. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 12 Current Events in the Collision Industry (con't.) Honda, Acura Dealers to Join on OEConnection Crash Parts System Excerpted from: CollisionWeek—September 2007 OEConnection announced that American Honda will begin providing OEConnection’s Internet-based parts ordering and fulfillment system to Honda and Acura dealerships and their collision shop customers nationwide. American Honda joins 11 other automakers already using OEConnection’s CollisionLink system. Chuck Rotuno, OEConnection President & CEO, said , “We’re confident our products will support Honda and Acura dealerships in enhancing parts department productivity, and facilitating increased original equipment sales opportunities leading to more profitable and successful businesses.” The CollisionLink system will link Honda and Acura dealerships online to their wholesale parts customers, allowing collision shops to submit parts orders to their supplying auto dealerships online. The system can integrate with shop estimating and management systems and also supports messaging and sending photos of hard-to- specify parts and schematics between dealers and shops. OEConnection LLC is a joint venture created by DaimlerChrysler, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, and Snap-on Business Solutions. AN EDITOR’S NOTE… The fact that the manufacturer of the 3rd and 5th best selling cars in the U.S. has joined the 11 other OEMs that are a part of the OEConnection is truly a milestone. The efficiency gained linking Mitchell’s shop management system to the OEMs through the OEConnection will benefit vehicle owners, insurers and collision repairers. Two years post-Katrina: Water-damaged cars continue to flood marketplace By James Guyette Excerpted from: ABRN October—2007 When Hurricane Katrina surged ashore it immersed the Gulf Coast’s vehicle fleet in a poisonous saltwater soup that comprised key components. Two years later, government officials now believe that some 500,000 so-called “Katrina cars” have since flooded the marketplace—driven by “title washing” that hides their waterlogged origin. Repairers who offer thorough, educated service can assist their car-buying customers by providing advice on avoiding a washed-up vehicle. This summer’s widespread flooding has heightened concerns over a new wave of used cars that may look good when superficially cleaned and dried yet contain serious hidden hazards. Shop owners need to be aware that technicians can be at risk if proper precautions aren’t taken when working on a suspect vehicle, according to Coordinating Committee for Automotive Repair (CCAR). They could experience serious illness if exposed to parts contaminated by disease-causing pathogens and harmful chemicals. Notwithstanding the biohazard issues, a car’s occupants can face danger in that critical safety systems may suddenly fail and vehicles can inexplicably stall in traffic. Immersion is saltwater can be particularly troublesome to a vehicle’s performance. You’ve probably seen what winter roadsalt can do a rocker panel—imagine what this corrosiveness can do to sensitive electrical connections under the dash. Freshwater from a river can be equally filthy and detrimental to a vehicle’s future roadworthiness. “Consumers should be aware that some businesses and individuals may try to sell salvaged and flood-damaged cars without revealing the vehicle history,” says David Claeys, Mitchell Industry Trends Report 13 Current Events in the Collision Industry (con't.) purchasing manager for CarMax in Richmond, Va. “Flood-damaged cars that are not structurally or mechanically sound could be repaired, re-titled, and sold to unsuspecting buyers.” Consumer advocates and government officials representing each side of the political spectrum are calling for an effective national database to reliably identify a flood car and keep it off the road forever. Pending passage of such a mandate, however, advisories continue to be issued. Recent media accounts by USA Today and ABC News have drawn renewed attention to the situation, focusing on the risks to people who buy cars that have survived a flood only to become a rolling “time bomb” to those riding in them. “Even without the influx of Katrina-damaged cars, thousands of wrecked, flooded or stolen automobiles are sold every year with clean titles to unsuspecting consumers,” says U.S. Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss). Lott, who lost his home and a car to Katrina, has become an outspoken proponent of putting a plug in title washing. “This situation persists because many states’ motor vehicle title laws are confusing or incomplete. Right now there is no single nationwide database which tags all problem vehicles. In some states, including Mississippi, unscrupulous folks are able to practice ‘title washing,’ in which a car with a salvage title is reissued a clear title,” Lott points out. “This legislation is particularly needed in Katrina’s wake, but it’s hardly a new problem,” he asserts. “An estimated half million vehicles were damaged by Katrina, and there is evidence that these cars are being cleaned up and sold to unsuspecting consumers. A number of these cars are unsafe and shouldn’t be on the roads. And folks are overpaying for vehicles they believe are mechanically sound. To the untrained eye, they appear to be in good shape,” Lott adds. “On the surface, these cars may look just fine, but underneath the hood and dashboard there could be all kinds of problems,” he says. “Today’s automobiles are laden with complex electronics and computer systems very susceptible to moisture. They don’t just ‘dry out.’ The damage may not manifest itself until after you’ve bought the car.” “Once a vehicle has been flood-damaged, many critical auto safety features are compromised,” concurs Glenn D. Turner, chief of staff at the Florida Division of Motor Vehicles. “If a consumer unwittingly purchases one of these potential road hazards, they are jeopardizing their safety, and the safety of others.” Mitchell Industry Trends Report 14 Motor Vehicle Markets New Vehicle Sales According to Ward’s Auto, total new light-vehicle sales through September 2007 declined by -2.9% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 12,301,941 vehicles sold. Year-to-date domestic cars declined by -6% and import cars increased by only 1.9%, resulting in a decrease in overall car sales of -3.7%. Total light trucks declined in sales through September. The increase in import truck sales (4.7%) was not enough to offset the domestic truck decline (-3.4%), resulting in a net decline in year-over-year sales to date of -2.2%. Ward’s U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Summary January-September 2007 Source is country of manufacture. Domestics are from U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are from overseas. Light vehicles are cars and light trucks (GVW Classes 1-3, under 14,001 lbs.). DSR is daily sales rate. Source: Ward’s AutoInfoBank © 2007, Ward’s Automotive Group, a division of Prism Business Media Inc. Redistribution by permission. Number of Vehicles 0 2m 4m 6m 8m 10m 12m 4,010,613 -6.0 Import Cars 1,817,657 1.9 Total Cars 5,828,270 -3.7 Domestic Light Trucks 5,431,890 -3.4 Import Light Trucks 1,041,781 4.7 Total Light Trucks 6,473,671 -2.2 Domestic Light Vehicles 9,442,503 -4.5 Import Light Vehicles 2,859,438 2.9 Total Light Vehicles 12,301,941 -2.9 Vol % Change from 2006 Sales Domestic Cars Mitchell Industry Trends Report 15 Motor Vehicle Markets (con't.) Ward’s 10 Best Selling Cars and Trucks January-September 2007 Cars Trucks/Vans/SUVs 1. Toyota Camry 2. Honda Accord 3. Toyota Corolla/Matrix 4. Honda Civic 5. Chevrolet Impala 6. Nissan Altima 7. Chevrolet Cobalt 8. Toyota Prius Hybrid 9. Ford Focus 10. Ford Fusion Note: Table combines imports and domestics. Source: W ard’s AutoInfoBank. ©Copyright 2007, Ward’s Automotive Group, a division of Prism Business Media Inc. Redistribution with permission. 324,261 301,879 291,981 254,955 249,713 212,704 152,895 137,114 133,043 112,519 1. Ford F-Series 2. Chevrolet Silverado 3. Dodge Ram Pickup 4. Honda CRV 5. GMC Sierra 6. Toyota Tundra 7. Toyota Tacoma 8. Toyota RAV4 9. Ford Econoline 10. Dodge Caravan 537,211 477,859 276,978 167,223 157,204 144,480 135,515 131,946 130,763 130,472 Used Vehicle Sales By tom webb Chief Economist – Manheim Wholesale Prices Continue Strong in September Wholesale used vehicle prices showed their normal, large seasonal decline in September, but on a mix, mileage, and seasonally-adjusted basis prices were up 0.6%. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reading was 115.8 for the month, representing an increase of 3.5% from a year ago. Wholesale used vehicle prices have risen 13.1% from the cyclical trough, which occurred in April of 2003. With the wholesale market showing an increase in average sale price (as well as an increase in the number sold), the retail used vehicle market may be performing better than some of the nationally reported numbers suggest. There is no doubt, however, that dealer margins are under pressure and that incremental sales gains are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. But, if retail auto financing remains readily available (likely), then used sales should continue to offer numerous profit opportunities. Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index September 2006 – September 2007 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index categories based on 2001 J.D. Power and Associates Vehicle Segmentation. Source: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Aug 07 Sep 07 Mitchell Industry Trends Report 16 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data The following information was assembled from industry-wide appraisal data uploaded from participating insurance carriers, body shops, and independent appraisers, processed by Mitchell International and compiled through Mitchell’s AIM™ (Advanced Information Management) system. With the obvious exception of the Total Loss section, all data in this section, including ACV benchmarks, relate to repairable vehicle appraisals only. Sections included in the Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data: • Average Appraisal Values • Comprehensive Losses • Supplements • Paint & Materials • Adjustments • Collision Losses • Third-Party Auto Property Damage • Parts Analysis • Labor Analysis • Total Losses Mitchell Product Solution: AIM AIM™ features immediate online data access, custom report construction, ad-hoc query capabilities, weekly updates, and the ability to accept and consolidate detailed appraisal data from all major estimating platforms. For more information on AIM, visit Mitchell’s website at www.mitchell.com. Development Explained The following data points are dynamic and subject to change from on-going supplement and total loss designation activities amending original appraisal values. Average appraisal values submitted in June, for example, will likely increase by several dollars over the next few months, then stabilize as all supplements are factored into the final value for the period. Raw values are provided, and then adjusted based on the observed six-month change behavior from prior data to produce a projected final or “developed” value. Adjusted values may therefore be considered reliable approximations of the eventual, industry value for any given datum. As supplement frequency and severity, as well as total loss designation activities vary by carrier, we suggest that each company isolate their own development factors to apply to their own unique data sets. Average Appraisal Values The average appraisal value, calculated by combining data from all first- and third-party repairable vehicle appraisals uploaded through Mitchell systems in Q3-2007, was $2,387, 2% less than the previous year’s Q3-2006 appraisal average of $2,440. Applying the prescribed development factor of 6% to these data, produces an anticipated average appraisal value of $2,527.* Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age All APD Line Coverages $14,000 $12,000 $12,954 $12,820 $12,653 $12,166 $12,121 $11,182 $10,000 $8,000 Mitchell Product Solution: UltraMate UltraMate is Mitchell’s advanced estimating system, combining database accuracy, automated calculations, and repair procedure pages to produce estimates that are comprehensive, verifiable, and accepted throughout the collision industry. UltraMate is a central component of Mitchell’s all-inone estimating, imaging, and claims workflow management solution, UltraMate Premier Suite. For more information on UltraMate and UltraMate Premier Suite, visit Mitchell’s website at www.mitchell.com. ® $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $2,324 $2,399 $2,506 $2,440 $2,525 $2,387/ 2,527 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 5.95 5.93 5.87 5.91 5.89 5.98 Appraisals ACV’s *NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through Mitchell UltraMate®. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 17 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data (con't.) Collision Losses Mitchell’s Q3-2007 data reflect an average gross Collision appraisal value of $2,705, 4% less than this same period last year. Applying the indicated development factor of 9.0% suggests a final Q3-2007 average gross collision appraisal value of $2,943, $111 higher than last year’s figure for this same period. At $14,070, the average Actual Cash Value (ACV) of vehicles appraised for Collision losses during Q3-2007 was $673 more than in Q3-2006 and also reflected slightly older vehicles.* Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age Collision Coverage* $14,000 $14,070 $13,556 $13,397 $12,918 $12,889 $12,000 $11,932 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $2,916 $2,830 $2,792 $2,919 $2,832 $2,705/ 2,943 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 5.59 5.54 5.53 5.58 5.60 5.64 Appraisals ACV’s Comprehensive Losses In Q3-2007, the average gross appraisal value for Comprehensive coverage estimates processed through our servers was $2,135, compared to $2,101 in Q3-2006. Applying the prescribed development factor of 3% for this data set produces an adjusted value of $2,198, a 4.6% increase from this same period last year. Q3-2007’s average appraised vehicle value (ACV) for comprehensive losses was $12,919, $288 more than those appraised during this same period in 2006.* Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age Comprehensive Losses $14,000 $12,000 $11,943 $11,366 $13,398 $12,631 $12,262 $12,919 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $1,993 $1,913 $2,180 $2,101 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 6.09 6.31 6.02 6.22 $2,096 $2,135/ 2,198 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 6.10 6.27 Appraisals ACV’s *NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through Mitchell UltraMate®. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 18 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data (con't.) Third Party Property Damage In Q3-2007, our industry average gross Third-party Property Damage appraisal was $2,155, compared to $2,145 in Q3-2006, reflecting a 4% initial increase between these respective periods. Adding the prescribed development factor of 3% for this coverage type yields a Q3-2007 adjusted appraisal value of $2,212, an overall 3% increase over Q3-2006. In Q3-2007, the average PD appraised vehicle ACV was $11,957 compared to Q3-2006’s average of $11,957—reflecting no change from this time last year.* Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age Auto Physical Damage APD $12,000 $10,000 $10,419 $12,078 $11,957 $11,517 $11,524 $11,957 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $1,931 $2,149 $2,231 $2,246 $2,145 $2,155/ 2,212 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 6.20 6.06 6.07 6.03 6.04 6.13 Avg. Unit Age Appraisals ACV’s Supplements Editors Note: As it generally takes at least three months following the original date of appraisal to accumulate most supplements against an original estimate of repair, we report (and recommend viewing supplement information) three months’ after-the-fact, to obtain the most accurate view of these data. In Q3-2007, 28.06% of all original estimates prepared by Mitchell-equipped estimators during that period were supplemented one or more times. In this same period, the pure supplement frequency (supplements to estimates), was 48.66%, reflecting a .92 pt, or 2% relative increase from that same period in 2006. The average combined supplement variance for this quarter was $540.47, -$92.48 lower than in Q3-2006. Average Supplement Frequency and Severity Date Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Pt/$ Change % Change % Est. Supplement 27.12 33.04 34.97 34.43 35.36 28.06 -6.37 -19% % Supplement 54.13 43 49.2 47.74 50.87 48.66 Avg. Combined Supp. Variance 532.39 622.71 637.21 632.95 641.76 540.47 % Supplement $ 22.9 25.95 25.43 25.94 25.41 22.64 0.92 2% -92.48 -15% -3.3 -13% *NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through Mitchell UltraMate®. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 19 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data (con't.) Average Appraisal Make-up This chart compares the average appraisal make-up as a percentage of dollars, constructed by Mitchell-equipped estimators. These data points reflect a slight decrease in the use of parts, while the percentage of paint material and labor dollars used in the average appraisal have increased between these respective periods. . % Average Appraisal Dollars by Type Date Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Pt/$ Change % Average Part $ 44.95 44.38 44.77 44.38 45.87 44.08 % Average Labor $ 44.28 44.68 44.63 44.69 43.39 44.97 0.28 1% % Paint Material $ 9.49 9.48 9.21 9.48 9.32 9.81 0.33 3% Parts Analysis As a general observation, recent data show that parts make up 44.9% of the average value per repairable vehicle appraisal, about (.63) points more than the average allocation of labor dollars. In addition, the overall trend now reflects a stabilized level of OEM parts use, an increasing volume of Aftermarket and Remanufactured parts dollars used by Mitchellequipped estimators, and declining LKQ (recycled) parts use. Editor’s Note: While there isn’t a perfect correlation between the types of parts specified by estimators and those actually used during the course of repairs, we feel that the following observations to be directionally accurate for both the insurance and auto body repair industries. This segment illuminates the percentage of dollars allocated to each unique part-type. Parts Type Definitions • Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM): Parts produced directly by the vehicle manufacturer or their authorized supplier, and delivered through the manufacturer's designated and approved supply channels. This category covers all automotive parts, including sheet metal and mechanical parts. • Aftermarket: Parts produced and/or supplied by firms other than the Original Equipment Manufacturer’s designated supply channel. This may also include those parts originally manufactured by endorsed OEM suppliers, which have later followed alternative distribution and sales processes. While this part category is often only associated with crash replacement parts, the automotive aftermarket also includes a large variety of mechanical and custom parts as well. • Non-New/Remanufactured: Parts removed from an existing vehicle that are cleaned, inspected, repaired and/or rebuilt, usually back to the original equipment manufacturer’s specifications, and re-marketed through either the OEM or alternative supply chains. While commonly associated with mechanical hard parts such as alternators, starters and engines, remanufactured parts may also include select crash parts such as urethane and TPO bumpers, radiators and wheels as well. • Like Kind and Quality (LKQ): Parts removed from a salvaged vehicle and re-marketed through private or consolidated auto parts recyclers. This category commonly includes all types of parts and assemblies, especially body, interior and mechanical parts. Editor’s Note: It is commonly understood within the collision repair and insurance industries that a very large number of LKQ “parts” are actually “parts-assemblies” (such as doors, which in fact include numerous attached parts and pieces). Thus, attempting to make discrete comparisons between the average number of LKQ and any other parts types used per estimate may be difficult and inaccurate. -0.3 % Change -1% Mitchell Product Solution: Mitchell Alternate Parts Program Mitchell Alternate Parts Program (MAPP™) offers automated access to nearly 30,000,000 Remanufactured, Aftermarket, and OEM Discount parts from over 1,500 suppliers, ensuring shops get the parts they need from their preferred vendors. MAPP is fully integrated with UltraMate for total ease-of-use. Designated company administrators are also provided the MAPP Matrix Manager application free of charge—allowing clients the ability to manage their MAPP matrices, run four different matrix reports, add new suppliers/ parts, all from their local platform without the need for Mitchell support/intervention. Mitchell Product Solution: Quality Recycled Parts (QRP) Mitchell Quality Recycled Parts (QRP™) is the most comprehensive source for finding recycled parts. It gives online access to a parts database compiled from a growing network of more than 2,500 of the highest quality recyclers in North America and Canada, covering more than 400 part categories representing access to nearly 44,000,000 parts from recyclers’ parts inventories—updated daily. QRP is fully integrated with UltraMate for total ease-of-use. In addition, for selected QRP parts, UltraMate automatically applies Mitchell’s Assembly Time Guide labor allowances and P-pages specific to LK parts replacement. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 20 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data (con't.) Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Parts Use in Dollars In Q3-2007, OEM parts represented 74.1% of all parts dollars specified by Mitchell-equipped estimators. These data reflect a .33 point relative increase from Q3-2006. Likely influences may include an actual increase in alternative parts use, as well as OEM price reductions to enhance competitiveness within the channel. In the larger picture, however, OEM use appears to have stabilized near 74% for most of 2007. OEM Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal U.S. Auto Facts At-A-Glance… • Six-year car loans are now the most common loans booked for new cars, accounting for over 40% of new car loans and nearly 35% of used car loans. 72.7% 73.6% 72.8% 73.8% 74.2% 74.1% • In 1960, the average new car cost $2,500 and traveled about 75,000 miles over a seven-year life span. Today, the median price of a new car is $25,500 dollars. Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 • According to the US Department of Transportation, today’s vehicles will average 145,000 miles in 13 years. Aftermarket Parts Use in Dollars In Q3-2007, 10.03% of all parts dollars recorded on Mitchell appraisals were attributed to Aftermarket sources, down slightly from Q3-2006. As stated in previous reports, Aftermarket use has stabilized in the 10 percent range since 2006. Aftermarket Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal 9.9% Q1/05 9.9% Q3/05 10.7% Q1/06 10.2% Q3/06 10.5% Q1/07 10.0% Q3/07 Remanufactured Parts Use in Dollars • The first auto insurance policy was purchased in Westfield, Mass., in 1897. • The average new car loses over 50 percent of its value in the first four years according to the NADA used car guide. • The cost of owning and operating a new vehicle in 2007 is 52.2 cents per mile, or $7,823 per year, when driving 15,000 miles annually according to AAA Currently listed as “Non-New” parts in our estimating platform and reporting products, Remanufactured parts currently represent 4.97% of the average gross parts dollars used in Mitchell appraisals during Q3-2007. This reflects a 0.06 point relative increase over this same period in 2006. Non-New/Remanufactured Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Like Kind and Quality Parts Use in Dollars LKQ parts constituted 11% of the average parts dollars used per appraisal during Q3-2007, reflecting a 0.25 point relative decrease from this same period last year. In mapping out the data by quarter, we are seeing a slight decrease in the use of LKQ used parts since 2005 LKQ Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal 12.7% 11.7% 11.6% 11.2% 10.6% 11.0% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Mitchell Industry Trends Report 21 Mitchell Collision Repair Industry Data (con't.) Paint and Materials During Q3-2007, Paint and Materials made up nearly 9.81% of our average appraisal value, representing a .24-point relative increase from Q3-2006. Represented differently, the average paint and materials rate—achieved by dividing the average paint and materials allowance per estimate by the average estimate refinish hours—yielded a rate of $25.30 per refinish hour in this period, compared to $24.90 in Q3-2006. Mitchell Product Solution: Refinishing Materials Calculator (RMC) Paint and Materials, by Quarter Mitchell’s Refinishing Materials Calculator™ (RMC) provides accurate calculations for refinishing materials costs by incorporating a database of over 7000 paint codes from eight paint manufacturers. It provides job-specific materials costing according to color and type of paint, plus access to the only automated, accurate, field-tested, and industry-accepted breakdown of actual costs of primers, colors, clear coats, additives, and other materials needed to restore vehicles to preaccident condition. RMC is now also fully integrated with UltraMate v6.0 and UltraMate v6.0 Premier Suite for total ease of use. For more information on RMC, visit Mitchell’s website at www.mitchell.com. $25.73 $25.67 $24.90 $24.80 9.6% $25.20 9.8% $25.30 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 % of Appraisal $ Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Rate = Average P&M $/Average Refinish Hours/Estimate Labor Analysis Average body labor rates have risen in all of our sample states except California, which may reflect on an increase in the number of estimates written in other California areas other outside of the San Francisco Bay area, where labor rates are the highest in California. % Average Labor Dollars by Type Average Body Labor Rates and Change by State Refinish (33.0%) Parts Replacement (27.0%) Parts Repair (40.0%) Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Pt Change % Change Arizona 44.35 45.33 0.98 2.2 California 47.20 47.12 -0.08 -0.2 Florida 39.98 40.45 0.97 2.4 Hawaii 42.28 42.47 0.19 0.4 Illinois 45.39 45.92 0.53 1.2 Michigan 40.69 40.76 0.07 0.2 New Jersey 42.54 43.81 1.27 3.0 New York 43.24 44.36 1.12 2.6 Ohio 40.41 41.25 0.84 2.1 Texas 39.70 40.52 0.82 2.1 Adjustments In Q3-2007, overall adjustments decreased, with betterment frequency decreasing by 12%, though the dollar amount increased by 3%. Adjustment $ and %’s Date Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Pt/$ Change % Change % Adjustments Est 3.8 4.12 4.26 4.61 4.29 3.94 -0.67 -15% % Betterment Est 3.08 3.28 3.25 3.55 3.36 3.11 -0.44 -12% % Appear Allow Est 0.48 0.58 0.58 0.6 0.55 0.57 -0.03 -5% % Prior Damage Est 5.34 5.32 5.25 4.82 4.58 4.69 -0.13 -3% Avg. Betterment $ 108.01 126.96 110.25 111.81 104.13 115.66 3.85 3% Avg. Appear Allow $ 140.93 161.03 155.97 181.15 164.41 167.29 -13.86 -8% Mitchell Industry Trends Report 22 J.D. Power and Associates: Facts, Figures, Trends Editor’s Note: The following information is reprinted from PIN Insights published by Power Information Network®, a division of J.D. Power and Associates. © 2007 by J.D. Power and Associates®, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Scion tC Has Highest Proportion of Young Buyers The 10 models with the highest proportion of young buyers (age 16–24), based on sales that occurred in June, July and August of this year, included six Asian, two domestic, and two European models. More than one-third of Scion tC buyers are in this age category, a far higher proportion than for any other model. All 10 models are in either the Compact Basic, Compact Conventional or Compact Sporty car segments. 10 Models with Highest Percentage of Young Buyers* Vehicles Percent of Young Buyers Scion tC 48.9% Pontiac G5 60.4% Mitsubishi Lancer 50.7% Mazda 3 54.4% Toyota Yaris 60.9% Subaru Impreza 56.4% Volkwagen Rabbit 56.0% Volkswagen GTI 51.4% Chevrolet Cobalt 55.5% Suzuki Aerio 48.6%** Source: Power Information Network (PIN) June – August 2007 *Young buyers are defined as those age 16 – 24. **Caution: Small sample. Robust—But Declining—Domestic Conquest Rates for Three Asian Pickups Among the three largest Asian pickups, the Titan conquested the highest proportion of owners of domestic products, 49%, in the July–August time period. The conquest rates of domestic owners for all three Asian pickups exceeded 40% and was substantially above the domestic conquest rates for the trucks’ corresponding overall brands. Though the conquest rates for all three trucks and their respective brands have been robust, they are, without exception, down from the same time period a year ago. The Tundra’s domestic conquest rate has declined the least, which is not surprising given that the larger, all-new 2007 Tundra was launched this past February and has captured a far bigger share of the large pickup segment than its predecessor. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 23 J.D. Power & Associates: Facts, Figures, Trends (con't.) Domestic Trade-Ins as a Percent of All Trade-Ins on Purchases of Selected Models. July – August 2007 Mitchell Product Solution: July – August 2006 Toyota Tundra 46.3% Toyota less Tundra 38.7% Toyota Tundra 48.3% Toyota less Tundra 42.0% Nissan Titan 49.0% Nissan less Titan 38.5% Nissan Titan 53.1% Nissan less Titan 40.1% Honda Ridgeline 43.2% Honda less Ridgeline 35.3% Honda Ridgeline 47.3% Honda less Ridgeline 38.7% Source: Power Information Network (PIN) Total Logic Valuation Ease of settlement, one of the main goals when settling total loss claims, is easier than ever with Mitchell’s revolutionary Total Logic™ Valuation solution. Backed by a leading-edge analytic model developed by Power Information Network (PIN), a division of J.D. Power and Associates , Total Logic Valuation calculates vehicle values that reflect real market conditions at the time of loss by incorporating key variables that may affect vehicle values. The Total Logic valuation tool incorporates true sold and available vehicle data from sources consumers trust, such as cars.com , AutoTrader.com and PIN. In addition, the system is fully customizable allowing carriers to automate internal policies and regulatory requirements. Total Logic Valuation delivers a granular view of the valuation details ensuring quick claim resolution and promoting consumer confidence in their carriers. ® ® ® Trading Patterns Show Consistent—But Slowing—Movement to Asians Consistent with the trends of automobile manufacturers’ U.S. new-vehicle market shares, owners of all types of vehicles—domestic, Asian and European—are trading to Asian vehicles at an increasing rate and to domestic vehicles at a declining pace. During the first six months of this year, almost 3 of every 10 owners of a domestic vehicle traded to an Asian vehicle; almost 4 of every 5 owners of an Asian vehicle traded to an Asian vehicle; and more than 4 of every 10 owners of European vehicles traded to an Asian vehicle. Each of these results is up more than 5 percentage points from the prior year. Simultaneously, the percent of owners of all three categories of vehicles moved to a domestic vehicle at a decreasing rate. One silver lining for the domestic companies: the increase from 2006 to 2007 in movement to Asians was less than the increase from 2005 to 2006. 1Q and 2Q 2005 1Q and 2Q 2006 ® 1Q and 2Q 2007 What Owners of Domestic Cars and Light Trucks Traded To Total Domestic 75.2% 71.1% 69.2% Total Asian 23.0% 26.9% 28.7% Total European 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% What Owners of Asian Cars and Light Trucks Traded To Total Domestic 23.6% 20.2% 18.2% Total Asian 72.4% 75.8% 78.0% Total European 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% What Owners of European Cars and Light Trucks Traded To Total Domestic 22.4% 19.7% 18.6% Total Asian 34.8% 36.8% 40.2% Total European 43.0% 43.4% 41.2% Source: Power Information Network (PIN) Note: U niverse is owners who traded their vehicles for new vehicles in the designated time period. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 24 Total Loss Average Vehicle Age in Years The chart below illustrates the shift we’ve been seeing in vehicle buyer’s tastes. Overall, the vehicles on U.S. roads are getting older (the average passenger car on the road today is the oldest in U.S. history at over 9 years of age), yet SUV’s and Crossovers (shown as ‘Wagons’) are the newest vehicles in the mix. Vehicles Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Convertible 9.11 9.32 9.11 9.33 9.53 9.74 9.47 9.87 Coupe 9.23 9.4 9.51 9.73 9.82 9.99 9.91 10.1 Hatchback 10.76 10.85 10.75 10.89 10.93 10.71 10.75 10.59 Sedan 8.77 8.83 8.96 9 9.11 9.18 9.22 9.19 Wagon 10.21 10.09 10.2 9.87 9.81 9.44 9.3 8.98 Pickup 9.17 9.56 9.47 9.62 9.58 9.83 9.68 9.65 Van 9.08 9.28 9.33 9.48 9.48 9.58 9.53 9.51 SUV 7.61 7.71 7.74 7.78 7.83 8.02 8.07 8.09 Average Vehicle Actual Cash Value The average actual cash value has not risen in many vehicle classes, but the hot ‘Crossover’ segment (shown here as ‘Wagons’) continues to rise as more higher-dollar luxury Crossovers hit the market (and in this case other objects, resulting in a total loss). Vehicles Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Convertible $9,037.24 $8,468.47 $9,303.93 $9,937.76 $9,335.76 $10,085.94 $9,845.97 $9,951.18 Coupe $5,106.21 $5,157.10 $5,097.24 $5,519.71 $5,454.43 $5,836.52 $5,974.59 $6,054.33 Hatchback $3,062.36 $3,258.98 $3,499.73 $3,741.74 $3,958.03 $4,626.70 $4,794.7 $5,112.68 Sedan $5,014.54 $5,075.73 $5,078.32 $5,624.92 $5,555.69 $5,949.48 $5,917.19 $6,066.73 Wagon $4,508.43 $5,067.46 $5,094.96 $5,925.48 $6,256.64 $6,770.52 $6,869.25 $7,271.31 Pickup $7,207.61 $7,289.59 $7,952.84 $8,507.37 $8,812.45 $8,892.15 $8,946.83 $8,912.98 Van $4,965.26 $5,066.35 $5,112.48 $5,518.26 $5,394.50 $5,866.58 $5,634.84 $5,707.44 SUV $9,076.36 $9,489.01 $9,384.51 $10,022.42 $9,640.33 $9,804.38 $9,232.17 $9,330.91 Mitchell Industry Trends Report 25 Canadian Collision Summary At the request of our customers and friends in Canada, we are pleased to provide the following Canada-specific statistics, observations, and trends. All dollar-figures appearing in this section are in CDN$. As a point of clarification, these data are the product of upload activities from Body Shop, Independent Appraisers and Insurance personnel, more accurately depicting insurance-paid loss activity, rather than consumer direct or retail market pricing. Average Appraisal Values The average gross appraisal value, calculated by combining data from all first- and third-party repairable vehicle appraisals uploaded through Mitchell Canadian systems in Q3-2007, was $2,992, a -$24 decrease from Q3-2006. However, applying the prescribed development factor of 3% yields an anticipated average appraisal value of $3,094, a 2.5% increase from Q3-2006.* W Editors Note: All dollar-figures appearing in this section are in CDN$. As a point of clarification, these data are the product of upload activities from Body Shop, Independent Appraisers and Insurance personnel, more accurately depicting insurance-paid loss activity, rather than consumer direct or retail market pricing. Canada—Severity Overall $13,312 $12,000 $12,832 $12,134 $13,291 $12,872 $12,218 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $3,022 $3,007 $2,946 $3,092 $3,016 $2,992/ 3,094 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 5.76 5.92 5.72 5.77 5.58 5.57 Appraisals ACV’s Collision Losses Mitchell’s Q3-2007 data reflects a Canadian average gross collision severity of $2,997, a $136 decrease over Q3-2006. But when we apply the prescribed development factor, we obtain an estimated final value of $3,096, reflecting a smaller decrease of $37.* Canada—Severity Collision $12,000 $13,224 $12,897 $12,232 $13,156 $12,918 $12,243 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $3,156 $3,004 $3,089 $3,133 $3,224 $2,997/ 3,096 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 5.62 5.67 5.61 5.60 5.44 5.44 Appraisals ACV’s *NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through Mitchell UltraMate®. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 26 Canadian Collision Summary (con't.) Comprehensive Losses In Q3-2007, the average gross Canadian appraisal value for comprehensive coverage estimates processed through our servers was $3,128, or $410 higher than in Q3-2006. Applying the prescribed development factor of 3%, the anticipated average appraisal value will be $3,240.* Canada—Severity Comprehensive $13,894 $13,548 $12,424 $12,000 $13,357 $12,091 $12,019 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $2,754 $2,387 $2,718 $2,438 $3,128/ 3,240 $2,563 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 6.24 6.58 6.18 6.30 5.99 5.77 Appraisals ACV’s Third Party Property Damage In Q3-2007, our Canadian industry average gross third-party property damage appraisal was $2,444, a decrease of $576 from Q3-2006 despite an increase in ACV of the average vehicle estimated.* W About Mitchell in Canada… For more than 17 years, Mitchell’s dedicated Canadian operations have focused specifically and entirely on the unique needs of collision repairers and insurers operating in the Canadian marketplace. Our Canadian team is known for making itself readily available, for being flexible in its approach to improving claims and repair processes, and for its ‘second to no one’ commitment to customer support. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices across Canada, Mitchell Canada delivers state-of-the-art, multilingual collision estimating and claims workflow solutions (including hardware, networks, training, and more), worldclass service, and localized support. To learn more about Mitchell Canada and its solutions and services, contact: Mike Jerry Vice President and General Manager– Mitchell Canada t: 888.209.4338 f: 416.733.1633 ® Canada—Severity APD $12,783 $12,000 $12,594 $11,903 $12,322 $11,552 $11,147 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Avg. Unit Age $2,460 $2,761 $2,740 $3,020 $2,365 $2,444/ 2,516 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 7.16 6.78 7.16 6.60 6.58 6.15 Appraisals ACV’s *NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through Mitchell UltraMate®. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 27 W Canadian Collision Summary (con't.) Average Appraisal Make-up This chart compares the average appraisal make-up as a percentage of dollars, constructed by Mitchell-equipped estimators. These data points reflect an increase in Paint Materials and labor dollars, while the percentage of parts has declined between these respective periods. % Average Appraisal Dollars by Type Date Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Pt/$ Change % Change % Average Part $ 46.7 42.13 46.08 43.19 45.81 41.55 -1.64 -4% % Average Labor $ 42.94 46.63 43.2 44.36 43.24 47.13 2.77 6% % Paint Material $ 7.46 8.03 7.71 8.42 8.13 8.71 0.29 3% Labor Analysis All data reflect the percentage of labor-type dollars utilized in the construction of Mitchell appraisals by Canadian estimators. Average Body Labor Rates and Changes by Province % Average Labor Dollars by Type Refinish (34.8%) Q2 2006 Remove/Replace (24.0%) Repair (41.2%) Q2 2007 Pt Change % Change CANADA 47.83 51.66 3.83 8.0 ALBERTA, CAN 49.87 57.77 7.90 15.8 BRITISH COLUMBIA, CAN 60.81 56.96 -3.85 -6.3 Newfoundland & Labrador, CAN 52.71 53.11 0.40 0.8 NOVA SCOTIA, CAN 51.23 52.17 0.94 1.8 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CAN 63.22 68.33 5.11 8.1 ONTARIO, CAN 48.61 50.13 1.52 3.1 QUEBEC, CAN 40.82 42.59 1.77 4.3 SASKATCHEWAN, CAN 53.92 55.54 1.62 3.0 YUKON TERRITORY, CAN 70.67 74.00 3.33 4.7 Adjustments In Q3-2007, overall adjustments decreased by 9%, with betterment frequency down by 12%, though the dollar amount increased by a surprising 20%. Adjustment $ and %’s Date Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Pt/$ Change % Adjustments Est 4.69 6.16 4.66 4.39 3.4 3.98 -0.41 -9% % Betterment Est 4.23 5.64 4.21 4 3 3.52 -0.48 -12% % Appear Allow Est 0.47 0.54 0.47 0.41 0.41 0.49 % Prior Damage Est 0.26 0.28 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.08 -0.1 -56% Avg. Betterment $ 120.68 148.91 132.29 151.71 159.22 182.18 30.47 20% Avg. Appear Allow $ 161.81 173.62 179.56 148.52 174.13 143.9 -4.62 -3% 0.08 % Change 20% Mitchell Industry Trends Report 28 W Canadian Collision Summary (con't.) Parts Analysis As a general observation, recent data show that parts make up 44.9% of the average value per repairable vehicle appraisal, about .63 points more than the average allocation of labor dollars. In addition, the overall trend now reflects a stabilized level of OEM parts use, an increasing volume of Aftermarket and Remanufactured parts dollars used by Mitchell-equipped estimators, and declining LKQ (recycled) parts use. Editor’s Note: While there isn’t a perfect correlation between the types of parts specified by estimators and those actually used during the course of repairs, we feel the following observations to be directionally accurate for both the insurance and auto body repair industries. This segment illuminates the percentage of dollars allocated to each unique part-type. For Parts Types Definitions, see page 18. Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Parts Use in Dollars In Q3-2007, Canadian OEM parts use rose slightly compared to Q3-2006 and reflects a trend of a continued rise in OEM use in Canada. Aftermarket Parts Use in Dollars Aftermarket parts use in Canada dipped slightly compared to Q3-2006 but has remained in the mid 10% range for over a year. Remanufactured Parts Use in Dollars Remanufactured parts use in Canada was 3.27% for Q3-2007, compared to 3.61% in Q3-2006. Like Kind and Quality Parts Use in Dollars LKQ parts use in Canada has steadily declined since Q1-2004, reflecting the rise in OEM use in the same periods. Canada—OEM 71.2% 72.0% 71.8% 73.8% 74.1% 75.4% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Canada—Aftermarket 11.2% 11.7% 11.3% 10.9% 10.7% 10.5% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Canada—Non-New/Remanufactured 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Canada—LKQ 13.9% 12.6% 13.3% 11.8% 11.6% 10.8% Q1/05 Q3/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Mitchell Industry Trends Report 29 Casualty Statistics Personal Injury Protection (PIP) During the second quarter of 2006, The 12-month rolling average for countrywide Personal Injury Protection claims (as calculated from the percentage of such claims reported per 100 insured exposures) was 1.45 and the average claim severity was $7,535. Countrywide PIP Frequency About Mitchell Medical… 2.0% 1.59 1.5% 1.55 1.52 1.49 1.45 1.0% 0.5% 0% Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Countrywide PIP Severity $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $7,535 $6,375 $6,483 $6,640 $6,744 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Bodily Injury As of the second quarter of 2007, the 12-month rolling average for countrywide bodily injury paid claim frequency was .99, down from the previous 12-month rolling total of 1.00 and lower than the other reported quarters. Countrywide BI Frequency 1.08% 1.07% 1.06% 1.05% 1.04% 1.03% 1.02% 1.01% 1.00% 0% 1.02 1.01 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 1.01 Q4 2006 1.00 0.99 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Countrywide BI Severity $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9,500 $9,000 $8,500 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $10,318 $10,429 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Editors Note: All information depicted here is based on the most recent and available ISS (formerly PCIAA) Fast Track data, reported one quarter in arrears. $10,594 $10,722 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 $10,884 Mitchell’s Medical division has 20+ years experience delivering successful technology, database, and service solutions for collision-injury claim handling that are accurate and efficient. Mitchell Medical is proud to serve many of the top P&C Insurers using both enterprise-wide and standalone implementations. Mitchell Medical Decision Point® facilitates 1st and 3rd party claimhandling by automating vital tasks, thus streamlining claim processing. Applying carrier-specific business procedures, claimant-specific treatment protocols, and Mitchell’s industry acumen, the majority of claims are handled without human intervention from first notice of loss through payment. Exceptions are handled via automated assignment to the appropriate subject matter expert (nurse reviewer, special investigator, experienced adjuster). Decision Point monitors compliance with federal and state regulations, and includes powerful analytic capabilities for predictive modeling and performance management. Mitchell Medical’s extensive customer service infrastructure provides clients with training, plus systems, content, regulatory, and litigation support, process consulting, and outsource service options. To learn more about Mitchell Medical and its casualty solutions, visit www.mitchell.com, or contact: Jeff Pirino Sr. Director of Casualty Sales Mitchell Medical [email protected] t: 858.536.8346 f: 858.536.5379 Q2 2007 Mitchell Industry Trends Report 30 About Mitchell ® Mitchell International, Inc. 9889 Willow Creek Rd. – San Diego, CA 92131 – 858.578.6550 Mitchell International, Inc., founded in 1946 and headquartered in San Diego, California, is a leading provider of information and workflow solutions to the automotive insurance and collision repair industries, serving carriers, shops, and other commercial participants in the physical damage and auto-related medical claims processes. Mitchell facilitates millions of electronic transactions between more than 16,000 business partners each month to enhance their productivity, profitability, and customer satisfaction. From the moment policyholders notify their insurance companies of a vehicle claim, Mitchell’s state-of-the-art solutions go into action throughout the entire claims and repair cycle. Mitchell provides the information and workflow management expertise insurers and collision repair shops rely upon to serve their customers. From initial damage appraisal to helping collision repairers return vehicles to pre-accident condition, from shop management to salvage, claims review to subrogation, Mitchell is there to ensure every aspect of the industry has the tools it needs to get the job done. All Mitchell collision solutions are backed by Mitchell’s industry-leading Parts & Labor Database—the most accurate and comprehensive source for vehicle information available anywhere—and which recently expanded its coverage to include specialty lines such as motorcycles, recreational vehicles, and watercraft. The Mitchell Database stands as a critical point of connectivity between shops and insurers, an unbiased resource referenced by all industry participants as a basis for resolving collision claims consistently and accurately. Mitchell International is a privately-held company, owned primarily by the Aurora Capital Group. Aurora Capital is a Los Angeles-based investment firm formed in 1991 that acquires and builds companies in partnership with operating management. The firm currently manages approximately $2 billion in capital and is committed to investing in companies with unique, defensible market positions. Aurora is dedicated to generating long-term value principally through investing the time and resources necessary to enhance the fundamentals of each of its businesses. For more information on Mitchell International, visit www.mitchell.com. For more information on Aurora Capital, please visit its website: www.auroracap.com. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 31 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 ® GMAC Insurance Selects Mitchell for Expanded Claims Performance Solutions Top insurer renews contract and expands relationship to include total loss, claims review and customer satisfaction solutions San Diego, CA – September 24, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that GMAC Insurance (GMACI), one of the largest property and casualty insurance groups in the nation, has selected Mitchell as its exclusive provider of claims performance solutions. Under terms of the deal, GMACI extends its use of Mitchell APD (auto physical damage) claims processing solutions and expands the relationship to include new Mitchell products and services. Included among the claims performance solutions Mitchell will provide are: Total Loss, Claims Review, CSI, Workflow and new communication tools. With Mitchell as its exclusive partner, GMACI gains a comprehensive and powerful claims performance engine fully in tune with the changing dynamics of the APD marketplace. “For many consumers, the insurance claims process has the potential to be both stressful and complicated; we at GMAC Insurance are committed to making it as customer-focused and efficient as possible,” said George Hall, VP of Claims, GMAC Insurance. “Mitchell’s solutions will help us better serve our customers, reduce claims settlement time and offer fair and accurate compensation to our policy holders.” ICBC Renews Customer Satisfaction Agreement with Mitchell International San Diego, CA – September 19, 2007 – Mitchell International announced a renewal agreement with Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC) for customer satisfaction indexing (CSI) services to be provided by AutocheX, Mitchell’s voice-of-the-customer performance management group. AutocheX has managed the customer satisfaction program for ICBC’s accredited c.a.r. shop Valet program since 2004. The new agreement extends through 2011 and includes voiceto-voice customer contact, problem recognition and notification, and detailed management reporting. As part of the agreement, Mitchell also worked with ICBC to migrate the AutocheX customer satisfaction data to Mitchell’s Canadian-based data processing and reporting center. Collision repair shops that participate in the ICBC c.a.r. shop Valet program started accessing their customer satisfaction data on the new Canadian-based Web site on September 1, 2007. Frank Fekete, Director of Material Damage Services for ICBC, said, “AutocheX is a part of ICBC’s overall commitment to customer service. Through its ongoing measurement of customer satisfaction at ICBC c.a.r. shop Valet facilities, we can work to ensure our customers receive safe, quality repairs that are guaranteed for as long as the customer owns the vehicle.” Under the new agreement, ICBC has enhanced the customer satisfaction service for the c.a.r. shop Valet program participants to include real-time “Customer Alerts” that AutocheX will e-mail to ICBC when the customer survey is completed. “This will help ICBC to be more proactive in identifying and assisting the collision repair facility resolve customer issues,” said Kevin Ballance, Manager of Accreditation Programs for ICBC. “We are committed to helping our shop partners respond to the needs of our customers and provide the best repair experience possible.” General Casualty Insurance Extends Agreement with Mitchell for Comprehensive Estimation Solutions San Diego, Calif. – September 17, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that General Casualty Insurance Companies, a super-regional property & casualty (P&C) insurance Continued… Mitchell Industry Trends Report 32 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 (con’t.) provider, has signed a multi-year contract with Mitchell for its estimating and specialty database solutions. Under the terms of the agreement, General Casualty will continue using Mitchell’s UltraMate® estimating solution for automobiles, motorcycles, marine craft and medium and heavy trucks. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Gale Harder, Assistant Vice President of Claims at General Casualty, said, “General Casualty looks forward to continuing our successful relationship with Mitchell International. We continue to be impressed with Mitchell’s quality and range of estimating databases and their continued efforts to build a trustworthy vendor partner relationship.” Mitchell’s estimating solution uses its own comprehensive database to gather essential claim data, such as vehicle parts and labor times, and organizes and routes the information while simplifying the collection and flow of critical documents and tasks within and between business partners. The solution, which includes increasingly popular specialty vehicles such as motorcycles, marine craft, RVs, and medium and heavy trucks, helps to create complete and accurate estimates that reduce cycle times for repairs and improve customer satisfaction. Nationwide Insurance Renews Shop and Staff Customer Satisfaction Indexing Programs with AutocheX San Diego, CA – August 22, 2007 – Mitchell International announced a renewal agreement with Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company for customer satisfaction indexing (CSI) services to be provided by AutocheX, Mitchell’s voice-of-the-customer performance management group. Nationwide will continue to use AutocheX to measure and report satisfaction with its Blue Ribbon collision repair facilities and staff associates across the United States through 2009. Specifically, AutocheX evaluates customer satisfaction with the individual Blue Ribbon shops following the collision repair transaction, and the front line claims adjusters during the claim settlement process. Terry Fortner, Associate Vice President Claims, asserted Nationwide’s commitment to measuring customer satisfaction: “Exceeding our customers’ expectations is a critical element of our ‘on your side’ approach to customer service. Being able to accurately capture the voice of our customers and understand what drives their satisfaction enables us to provide the highest level of service possible,” said Fortner. “Having customer satisfaction information at our fingertips helps us make better decisions on how to best serve our customers and is critical to maintaining policyholder loyalty,” added Jim Gadberry, Director of Blue Ribbon Services. Mitchell International Wins a Multi-year Contract Extension from Progressive Insurance San Diego, CA – August 20, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that Progressive Insurance, the nation’s third largest auto insurer, has agreed to a multi-year contract extension with Mitchell for auto physical damage (APD) claims estimating solutions. Steve Gellen, Claims Process Leader, of Progressive said, “We have partnered with Mitchell for many years, and they have become an integral part of our claims processing strategy and solution-set. Mitchell has routinely demonstrated a willingness and ability to work closely with us to meet the unique needs of Progressive and our customers. We look forward to our continued partnership.” Press Releases Continue… Mitchell Industry Trends Report 33 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 (con’t.) Plymouth Rock Assurance Selects Mitchell’s Total Logic™ Valuation Mitchell’s Total Loss Valuation Solution Reduces Claims Settlement Cycle Time with Accurate, Trusted and Transparent Vehicle Valuation Data San Diego, CA – July 16, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that Plymouth Rock Assurance Corporation, a leading insurer with over 125,000 individual policyholders and personal auto insurance premiums which, in 2006, exceeded $302 million, has selected Mitchell’s Total Logic™ Valuation as the company’s total loss valuation solution. Plymouth Rock Assurance chose Mitchell’s Total Logic Valuation because it delivers a customercentric loss claims process. Total Logic Valuation, developed in partnership with J.D. Power and Associates®, produces objective, transparent and trusted vehicle valuations resulting in a fair and easy to understand claims settlement process. “Mitchell’s Total Logic Valuation is perfect in keeping with Plymouth Rock Assurance’s mission of providing unparalleled customer service, responsiveness and professionalism,” said Bill Kelleher, Claim Director at Plymouth Rock Assurance Corporation. “In Total Logic Valuation, Mitchell has developed a product that thoroughly, and uniquely, considers our customers’ perspective in the claims settlement process. With Total Logic Valuation, our customers get loss valuations based on trusted third-party data sources and transparent, efficient and easy to understand valuation reports.” Mitchell International Revs Up Partnership With Harley-Davidson® Motorcycles Integration of Harley-Davidson’s parts, pricing and factory accessories with Mitchell’s UltraMate® Motorcycle creates standardized estimating platform San Diego, CA – August 1, 2007 – Mitchell International announced a marketing and sales partnership with Harley-Davidson, Inc. Through this partnership, Harley-Davidson, Inc. will market and sell Mitchell’s UltraMate® Motorcycle estimating solution directly to its dealers. The solution includes extensive Harley-Davidson model coverage as well as a comprehensive list of Harley-Davidson upgrade accessories. UltraMate Motorcycle eliminates the time spent manually entering repair estimate data and makes importing estimates into shop management systems easier. Having access to accurate parts and labor information allows users to create work orders faster and easier than ever before. Users of UltraMate Motorcycle for Harley-Davidson reported a reduction in per estimate time from an average 2-3 hours to less than 30 minutes, with a typical user reporting an average estimate time of 15 minutes. This equates to an average of 15-25 hours saved per month. ”In the bike business, there are significant seasonal and repeat customer factors at work, so shorter repair cycle times translate into happier customers and a more profitable shop,” said Robert Carey, Parts and Service Manager, Harley-Davidson of Danbury, an early adopter of the new Harley-Davidson/UltraMate Motorcycle estimating solution. “UltraMate Motorcycle has enabled our shop to reduce cycle times by quickly creating fair and accurate motorcycle repair estimates that our insurance partners can understand and readily accept.” Carey added, “I have grown dependent on UltraMate Motorcycle. It is a great tool for creating parts and accessories estimates in conjunction with the sales process of new bikes. The product is a real time saver and has helped us gain credibility with most of the major insurance companies.” Press Releases Continue… Mitchell Industry Trends Report 34 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 (con’t.) Mitchell International Announces Creation of Data Centers in Canada for Regulatory Compliance Canadian Data Centers Protect Canadians’ Personal Information from Unauthorized ThirdParty Access San Diego, Calif. – September 21, 2007 – Mitchell International furthered its commitment to protect the personal data of its Canadian insurance carrier customers, and their policy holders, through the successful establishment of Canadian-based primary and secondary data centers. With this announcement, Mitchell remains a leader in creating local data centers to store and run applications used by Canadian insurance carrier customers. These domestically run data centers process Canadian customer information independent from US-based data centers and replace facilities that previously provided services from within the United States. “Data protection and maintaining the privacy of personal data have always been a top priority of Mitchell International. Our Canadian customers can now rest assured that personal information is protected with the establishment of our all-Canadian state-of-the-art data center facilities,” said Mike Jerry, General Manager, Mitchell International (Canada). Mitchell International’s Canadian data centers also feature Canadian-based local support and systems staff who ensure private data is not accessed remotely from outside Canada to meet new Canadian privacy requirements. By locating Canadian data in centers domestically, Mitchell offers a unique service advantage to its Canadian customers while complying with local government regulations. Mitchell International Announces Leadership Succession President, Alex Sun, to become President and Chief Executive Officer and a Member of the Board of Directors; Chief Executive Officer, James Lindner, to become Executive Chairman of the Board San Diego, CA – September 14, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that its Board of Directors has unanimously approved a succession plan that will ensure strong leadership at Mitchell in the years to come. Effective January 01, 2008, Alex Sun, President of Mitchell, will become President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of Mitchell’s Board of Directors. Alex Sun joined Mitchell in 2001 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and assumed the title of President in early 2005. James Lindner, who has been Mitchell’s Chief Executive Officer since 1997, will become Executive Chairman of the Board. “I want to thank the Board of Directors for their support and confidence in our leadership team, strategy and vision for Mitchell’s successful future,” stated Alex Sun. “Under Jim’s firm guidance over these past ten years, Mitchell has consistently grown its revenue, earned a stellar reputation for world-class customer service and developed many of the key innovations our customers rely on every day to drive their business. I look forward to working with our extended management team, customers and stakeholders in continuing Mitchell’s rich legacy of achievement. Moreover, I am excited that Jim will be working with us as Executive Chairman as we continue to pursue opportunities to expand the breadth of our products and services.” “As Chief Executive Officer of Mitchell for the past ten years, one of my key responsibilities was to build an organization that would ensure Mitchell’s long-term industry leadership,” stated Jim Lindner. “I am pleased to turn the Chief Executive Officer position over to someone of Alex Sun’s caliber. Having worked closely with Alex over the past several years I have experienced his strong leadership skills and business acumen first hand. His indepth understanding of our operations, combined with his strategic vision for our industry Continued… Mitchell Industry Trends Report 35 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 (con’t.) and Mitchell’s future, will benefit all of our customers and business partners. As Executive Chairman of the Board, I will continue to work closely with Alex and his team on a number of key areas, including acquisition and partnering opportunities, corporate strategy and customer relations.” John Mapes, Managing Partner at Aurora Capital, added, “As we stated at the time we consummated our investment in Mitchell, Aurora Capital has great confidence in Mitchell’s leadership. With this succession plan, customers can continue to expect new, innovative products and strategic acquisitions which will allow Mitchell to deliver greater value to its customers.” Mitchell International and eAutoclaims Announce Joint Distribution Agreement San Diego, CA – July 30, 2007 – Mitchell International announced that it has entered in to a distribution relationship with eAutoclaims, a leading provider of claims management solutions and services for the property casualty market. This reciprocal marketing and distribution agreement enables eAutoclaims to distribute Mitchell’s products and services to its national network of contracted Repair Facilities, Independent Appraisers and Insurance Clients, and provides Mitchell with the opportunity to offer eAutoclaims products and services to targeted customers. eAutoclaims’ focus will be marketing and selling Mitchell’s estimating, shop management platforms and targeting specific insurance opportunities that are interested in their mutual products and services. “The addition of eAutoclaims as a national distributor allows Mitchell to partner with a strong industry leader to expand our reach in the Collision Repair Industry,” said Paul Van Deventer, Mitchell’s Senior Vice President of Sales. “Mitchell’s shop management and estimating solutions have seen record levels of adoption over the last several years, and we look forward to the added support of the eAutoclaims’ distribution channel.” “With Mitchell’s strong brand along with industry-leading product offerings plus eAutoclaims’ most recent release of web applications called eJusterSuite, eAutoclaims can expand its presence and provide more products and services to our contracted Collision Repair Network, Independent Appraiser Network and Insurance Market,” said Tim Ellis, eAutoclaims Vice President of Sales & Marketing. Mitchell Presents to Society of Insurance Research on “Driving Claims Performance Through Data Analytics” San Diego, CA – July 11, 2007 – Presenting to the Society of Insurance Research (SIR) at its Spring Conference on May 22nd in Dallas, TX, Alex Sun, President of Mitchell International, highlighted the main findings of his whitepaper “The Tip of the Information Iceberg” (available at www.mitchell.com) to reveal how the strategic use of data analytics can improve the claims performance of insurers. Claims organizations are only now beginning to embrace data analytics as a critical factor in driving business improvements and transforming the claims process. Collecting and assessing performance data allows insurers to apply the resulting insights and drive improvements throughout the claims process. By analyzing key processes, physical damage and casualty severity data points, the opportunity now exists to leverage analytical insights to improve operational performance across all critical claims performance drivers. “Analyzing the massive amounts of data collected during the claims process can produce insights that lead to substantial operational improvements,” said Sun. “With the adoption of many claims automation technologies today, from estimating systems to workflow solutions, there is now the ability to systematically capture data on critical activities in the claims Continued… Mitchell Industry Trends Report 36 Mitchell News Releases Q3-2007 (con’t.) process. This data can now be leveraged to better understand how an individual carrier performs against both internal and industry-wide best practice benchmarks and drive significant performance improvements.” According to Ed Budd, Executive Director of SIR, “We were very pleased with Mr. Sun’s presentation since the SIR Conference is about brining new trends and technology to the forefront and the free exchange of ideas to address industry issues.” Budd continued, “Most organizations are in the early stages of implementing data analytics, such as capturing data and basic reporting. As Mr. Sun demonstrated, in order to achieve enhanced performance, carriers will need a structured process for applying the insights derived from rigorous data analytics. His presentation topic was well received by conference attendees and sparked interesting discussions about the future of data analytics.” Sun added, “Some examples of future claims analytics include Common Data Presentment, so that claims adjusters can receive both relevant medical and APD reports. This capability is expected to drive better decision making about the relatedness of injuries and present a more holistic picture of claim circumstances. As well, fraud identification and straightthrough processing will benefit from data analytics in the future, allowing for better decisions to be made earlier in the claims process, saving time and money.” As a provider of information solutions and technology for both auto property and casualty claims, Mitchell has the ability to observe and evaluate the various and ongoing processes aimed at improving claims settlement practices—and has collaborated with a diversity of experienced claims professionals. Mitchell Glass Releases GlassMate® 5.5 New Glass Website Launch Dedicated to the Auto Glass Repair and Replacement User Community San Diego, CA – September 6, 2007 – Mitchell Glass, a division of Mitchell International, today announced the release of GlassMate® Version 5.5 to the Auto Glass Repair and Replacement (AGRR) industry. GlassMate, a leading point-of-sale system for the AGRR industry, increases user efficiency by allowing direct order placements of auto glass parts from Pilkington, a leading automotive glass manufacturer. Along with the new release of GlassMate, Mitchell Glass today launched its new website tailored to the needs of the AGRR user community. The new website, available at http://Glass.Mitchell.com, provides a destination offering comprehensive information about Mitchell Glass products, support and answers to commonly asked questions. “This release of GlassMate v5.5 offers our customers another leap forward in streamlining glass repairs and enhanced productivity. With integrated parts ordering through GLAXIS™, and through Pilkington, retailers can quote, invoice, order parts, and schedule without ever leaving the GlassMate software environment,” said James Patterson, Director of Glass Product Management at Mitchell International. “We are excited about this new GlassMate release and will continue to add robust functionality and integration with other glass vendors in upcoming releases.” Patterson added, “Over the past few years more of our customers have been relying on information from the Internet to make educated decisions. In response, we have created our new dedicated Mitchell Glass website to serve as a trusted source of industry and product information that the AGRR community can use on a daily basis.” More information about GlassMate software is available at http://Glass.Mitchell.com or by calling (800) 551-4012. Mitchell Industry Trends Report 37 Mitchell Brand Advertising at Work At this year’s NACE in Las Vegas, Mitchell introduced its new WorkCenter™ claims processing workspace—where simplification is the innovation. With a highly developed mix of modules facilitating efficiency and seamless workflow, insurance companies can realize significant improvements across their claims processing environment. Assignment | Dispatch | Estimating | Total Loss | Parts Management | Salvage | Compliance | Audit | Review | Reinspection | Payment | CSI | Analytics mitchell solutions with muscle meet our new chief simplification officer… The Mitchell WorkCenter ™ Claims Performance Solution: t en ch nm at sig sp As Di nt me ge s na ing os Ma at ge lL a s m t i a v r l t t Es To Pa Sa e nc lia mp dit Co Au w vie Re ion ct t pe en ins ym Re Pa I CS s tic aly An ® Mitchell Industry Trends Report 38 Mitchell Brand Advertising at Work (con’t.) Also at this year’s NACE, Mitchell stood front and center showcasing powerful business solutions for collision repair facilities—most notably its industry-leading ABS™ management systems, which help body shops step up their performance in shop-critical areas and also gives them insight into improvable areas of their businesses—resulting in better customer satisfaction and business partnering. Management Systems | Estimating | Repair | Glass | CSI | mitchell solutions with muscle ABS Enterprise Management System: Feel the performance! ™ Designed for high-volume and multi-location facilities who want the ultimate web-based tool and who also crave muscle-powered business performance. ABS Enterprise ™ ® Mitchell Industry Trends Report 39 Industry Trends Report Volume Seven Number Four Q4 2007 Published by Mitchell International, Inc. The Industry Trends Report is a quarterly snapshot of the auto physical damage collision and casualty industries. Just inside—the economy, industry highlights, plus illuminating statistics and measures, and more. Stay informed on ongoing and emerging trends impacting the industry, and you, with the Industry Trends Report! Questions or comments about the Industry Trends Report may be directed to: Greg Horn Editor in Chief, Vice President of Industry Relations [email protected] For distribution and circulation questions, or requests for back issues, please contact: Regina Merkey, Managing Editor, Marketing Communications Specialist Distribution and Circulation (858) 578-6550, ext. 8146 e-mail: [email protected] Original Cover Photography Jennifer Therieau, Graphic Designer, Mitchell International Layout and Design Larry Barnett, Creative Director, Mitchell International ® ©2007 Mitchell International, Inc. All rights reserved.