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IISS Cartagena Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
The Military Balance 2015 Launch . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Climate Change and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 16
South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
April 2015
Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20, 23
IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
The IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015
Juan Manuel Santos,
President of Colombia
Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez,
President of Panama
President Juan Manuel Santos opened the
social and economic progress. It held out the
supported by integration with the global economy:
Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit on
promise of ending the oldest conflict in the west-
Colombia now has preferential access to 1.5 billion
6 March 2015 with a keynote address. He described
ern hemisphere, which had run for 50 years. He
consumers in the Americas, Europe and soon the
the integration of Colombia with the Asia-Pacific as
spoke candidly about the difficulties of striking a
Asia-Pacific. The Pacific Alliance, he said, is such
‘a dream, almost an obsession’ during the past two
balance between peace and justice for victims in
a promising trade initiative because it seeks ‘deep
decades. The Dialogue – which brought together
the talks with FARC being held in Havana, Cuba.
integration’ between the four current member
the four Pacific Alliance states of Colombia, Chile,
Colombia’s goal, he said, is to achieve a level of jus-
countries. The Alliance, he added, is the most
Mexico and Peru, plus observer states from Latin
tice that allows peace. On a positive note, he shared
dynamic platform for economy and trade in Latin
America and Asia – represented a further step
with the audience the experience of victims of the
America, pursuing the free circulation of goods,
in Colombia’s trans-Pacific relationships, Santos
conflict who journeyed to Havana and returned
services, capital and people.
said. The country’s GDP growth has averaged 5%
home more willing to forgive than before.
The president highlighted the deepening inte-
annually in recent years, surpassing neighbouring
Colombia entered the talks from a position of
gration of the Pacific Alliance countries into Asian
countries. It attracts today more foreign investment
strength and increased security that was a result
political and economic fora such as ASEAN and
than ever, thanks to the control of inflation and the
of the strengthening of the armed forces and the
APEC. One of the challenges for Colombia is to
reduction of poverty. Approximately two million
police, President Santos said. The security forces
diversify the range of its exports to Asia-Pacific
people have been lifted out of poverty in the past
were able to achieve significant victories that
countries. Santos said Colombia will exploit its
four years, the president said, adding that the goal
debilitated FARC during the years prior to the
agricultural potential to sell more food prod-
is to eradicate poverty entirely within a decade.
Havana talks. Improved security has also been one
ucts to Asian countries, where populations and
President Santos told delegates that the peace
of the pillars of Colombia’s economic and social
incomes are rising, stoking increased demand for
process with the FARC paved the way for more
progress, he added. These advances have been
food products. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue, the
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
ASIA-PACIFIC
PACIFIC ALLIANCE
COLOMBIA
Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief
Executive, IISS
president concluded, reaffirms Colombia’s role
but that the Pacific Alliance nevertheless con-
education, he said, but also help Asia handle
as a point of contact between Asia and Latin
stituted a market of comparable size to Brazil
the transitions associated with urbanisation
America.
or India, and thus was an attractive partner for
– a process that Latin America has largely com-
Shortly before President Santos gave the
Asia. Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador
pleted. Dr Min Zhu, deputy director general of
keynote address, Caracol Television organised
for National Security Affairs, agreed with that
the IMF, also noted the rapid increase in trade
a debate involving delegates and speakers at
assessment, predicting that the Pacific Alliance
flows and said that Latin America was already
the Dialogue, chaired by News Director Juan
would become a growth driver and core region
integrated in some Asian vertically integrated
Roberto Vargas and broadcast to 27 Latin
within the Americas.
supply chains. The closeness of the economies
Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, president of
was apparent in the high degree of correlation
He began by asking panellists to assess the
the Inter-American Development Bank, noted
between Asian and Latin American stockmar-
importance of the relationship between Latin
the increased trade flows: Asia’s share in Latin
kets, he added.
America and Asia. Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno,
American trade rose from 8% in 2000 to almost
Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, chair of
Minister of National Defence of Colombia,
25% in 2014, although the distribution varied
the Mexican Senate’s foreign affairs committee,
described Asia as a benchmark for the world
widely with Mexico and Brazil dominating. A
noted that the lack of pan-Pacific institutions to
economy and a centre of technological develop-
south–south dialogue could help Latin America
stimulate contacts between Latin America and
ment; he noted that Latin America was smaller
close the gap with Asia on technology and
Asia, aside from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
American countries.
Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno, Minister of National Defence, Colombia; Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador for National Security Affairs; Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, President,
Inter-American Development Bank; Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF; Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, Chair of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee
2
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APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
GEO-ECONOMICS
María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister
of Foreign Affairs, Colombia
Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena,
Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico
LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN
Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of
Foreign Affairs, Chile
(TPP) trade initiative. The Pacific Alliance, she
opment and integration in Asia. Colombia’s
Secretary Meade said that the next step is
added, has great potential as a market and an
partners share our vision, she said, but they
to promote the Pacific Alliance countries in the
exporter of some important commodities such
have already built links to Asia through trade
Pacific region and to create opportunities for
as silver and copper.
agreements and we have benefited from their
business-to-business contacts. To that end, they
Mr Vargas then turned attention to the
experience and the ability to share diplomatic
hope to hold an APEC-Pacific Alliance meeting
question of insecurity and how that affected
missions. The Pacific Alliance is focused on Asia
on the margins of the Latin American Economic
business decisions. Senator Cuevas observed
because it believes the region is the lynchpin of
Forum in April.
that, according to the UN, seven of the world’s
the global economy in the 21st century, the min-
ten most dangerous countries are located in
ister remarked.
The theme of the Pacific Alliance being a
response to previous failed integration efforts
Latin America; and yet this had not proven to
Within Latin America, the agenda for coop-
was taken up by Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro,
be a barrier to investment. Insecurity, even in
eration within the alliance includes migration,
Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru. Broader
the worst-afflicted states, was not uniform, she
easing travel between the regions. Already
integration projects have been stymied by ideo-
noted. Chung Min Lee suggested that percep-
these nations are reaping the benefits of easier
logical and developmental differences among
tions of Asian investors sometimes failed to
freedom of movement, the minister remarked,
states, he said, prompting Peru’s then-president
keep pace with improving realities in Colombia
and are continuing to work together despite
Alen Garcia to establish a vanguard for integra-
and Mexico, while also noting that Asia suf-
changes of government in member-countries.
tion based on a core group of solid democracies
fered from inter-state tensions that were largely
In Asia, the Pacific Alliance has started a rela-
with similar outlooks on economic and trade
absent in Latin America.
tionship with ASEAN – a grouping that, like the
policy. The Pacific Alliance is the first integra-
alliance, is a good example of open regionalism
tion venture based on common interests rather
and ensuring stability and prosperity.
than geographical proximity, the vice minister
Minister Pinzon added that it was important
to boost security in order for investors to feel
comfortable – noting that economic develop-
Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary
said. It is open to other states in the region, so
ment was vital to underpin the security gains
of Foreign Affairs, Mexico, reflected on the
long as they share the alliance’s values and stan-
made in Colombia in recent years. Touching
failure of Latin America until recently to make
dards.
on Chung Min Lee’s comparison of security in
a success of regional integration, despite com-
Looking to Asia, the vice minister vowed
Asia and Latin America, he said that the latter
monalities of language, culture, values, history
to help and support Colombia’s desire to join
enjoyed considerable security at the inter-state
and aspirations. The Pacific Alliance, he sug-
APEC. There is considerable Asian interest in
level but low levels of security at the personal
gested, marks a change for the better. It has been
the Pacific Alliance, he added, noting that there
level.
assisted by having two main objectives: to build
are 32 observer states, half of which are Asian.
a single, deeply integrated economic space;
Speaking of Peru’s own ties to Asia, he recalled
Plenary 1: the Pacific Alliance Countries and
and to create a platform to promote the coun-
that diplomatic relations with China and Japan
Asia
tries in the wider world and especially in Asia.
were established in the 1870s and that today
Opening the first plenary session, María Ángela
A great deal of progress has been made on the
the country is home to the largest Chinese com-
Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs,
first objective over the last three years, not only
munity in Latin America and the second-largest
Colombia, outlined the importance of the
regarding trade but also visa and stockmarket
Japanese community. Today China is Peru’s
Pacific Alliance in supporting Colombia’s devel-
integration, he said.
leading trade partner and a major investor too.
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 3
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of
the International Monetary Fund
FOREIGN POLICY
Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign
Affairs of the Republic of Korea
Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance of
the Philippines
Toshiro Suzuki, Ambassador at Large
for International Economic Issues,
Japan
Addressing another aspect of the Pacific
ministers were emphatic in their response.
ised by greater levels of technology transfer and
Alliance, Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of
Secretary Meade said the Pacific Alliance’s
increased investment in infrastructure and edu-
Foreign Affairs, Chile, observed that the world
limited bureaucracy and institutionalism has
cation, which would bring substantial benefits
is now comprised of trade groupings, making
been hugely advantageous. Minister Holguín
including reductions in income inequality.
integration a necessity in order to create effi-
warned that the creation of a bureaucracy could
Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign
cient development and foreign-trade policies.
deprive the alliance of dynamism and creativ-
Affairs, Republic of Korea, emphasised the
The individual states of the Pacific Alliance have
ity. It is essential to not create a bureaucratic
importance for South Korea of the Pacific
forged many bilateral Free-Trade Agreements
machine, she added.
Alliance. Already Seoul is negotiating bilateral
Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the four
(FTAs), he said, but acting individually is no
longer sufficient. The Pacific Alliance stands
Plenary 2: Asian Perspectives on the Pacific
Alliance states. Although Korea has a long-
out because of its desire to become a genuine
Alliance
standing relationship of trust with Colombia,
regional platform. He affirmed Chile’s commit-
Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of
dating back to the Korean War, Seoul feels
ment to far-reaching trade liberalisation and
the International Monetary Fund, observed
a sense of camaraderie with all four Pacific
opening the trade in services and government
that Latin America’s exports to Asia had risen
Alliance states based on a shared outlook. Latin
procurement within the Alliance.
substantially. Moreover, China and Japan
America has been a laboratory for competing
The Pacific Alliance’s Asian focus can help
were providing significant capital flows to
theories of economic development, he said, but
with important domestic objectives, in particu-
Latin America and equity markets had become
it now appears that the open, free-trade model
lar the cause of reducing inequality within Latin
closely aligned. Asian economies were now
espoused by the Pacific Alliance is carrying the
America, the vice minister said. Asian exper-
moving from export-led policies towards the
day. Latin America as a whole faces a shortfall
tise and experience in science, technology and
development of domestic economies, the expan-
in infrastructure: the cost of remedying it is
innovation can help to narrow disparities of
sion of the middle class and a strong financial
expected to rise to US$120 billion by 2020, the
income and opportunity within the Pacific
sector. China’s current spending on invest-
vice minister stated. South Korean companies
Alliance states.
ment, at 44% of GDP, is unsustainable: a cut
are well placed to work in this sphere, creating
The debate that followed the speeches
to 34% of GDP over several years would have
high-quality jobs and added value.
touched on the question of whether the Pacific
significant adverse impacts on Latin American
Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, the
Alliance’s Asian focus represented an effort to
commodity markets. The challenge is to estab-
Philippines, observed that the trans-Pacific alli-
reduce economic reliance on China, and also
lish a ‘new normal’ in relations between Asia
ance was not a new idea. Some 450 years ago
on the difficulty of balancing close security ties
and Latin America, moving beyond the com-
there had been a galleon trade between Acapulco
with the US and growing trade ties with China
modity cycle towards a more broad-based
and Manila involving bullion on one side and
– a dilemma that is common to some Asian
relationship involving increased consumerism,
Chinese manufactured goods on the other.
and Latin American states. Dr Felipe Larraín
services and agriculture. This should involve
At that time, and for most of recorded history,
Bascuñán, Chile’s former Minister of Finance,
not just the major corporations but also small
China had been the world’s largest economy and
raised the question of the Alliance widening
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such
it was now resuming that status. Asia as a whole
or deepening, and whether that necessitated
an evolution would have profound social and
would soon account for two-thirds of the world’s
institutional development. The two foreign
cultural implications. It would be character-
middle class, he stated. Re-establishing the gal-
4
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APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
GLOBALISATION
Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the
Board, Mitsubishi Corporation
Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional
Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group
Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and
Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
David Bojanini García, Chief Executive
Officer, Suramericana Investment
Group
speakers
economic integration through Global Value
Pacific Alliance, for instance, should be clear
included an emphasis on the need for the Pacific
Chains (GVC); the expectations of Japanese
about its role within Latin America. If it is to
Alliance project to move from a negotiated elite
business from the Pacific Alliance countries
be a hub for inter-American trade, it requires
project to one that was more organic and com-
and the relations between Japan and the Pacific
increased connectivity and the negotiation of
manded broad popular support. It should move
Alliance countries. He viewed the Trans Pacific
gold-standard FTAs ideally involving the abo-
beyond a focus on FTAs and address security
Partnership (TPP) trade initiative as an attempt
lition of tariffs, since the transportation costs
and climate change. Greater engagement with
to address the needs of multinational companies
of trans-Pacific trade already constitute a sig-
SMEs in the Pacific Alliance was also needed,
with trans-border investments through GVCs.
nificant tariff. Secretary Purisima added that
as currently they view greater engagement with
With an aggregate income of US$2 trillion the
the Pacific Alliance should serve as a channel
Asia as a source of unwelcome competition
Pacific Alliance economies were together as big
for information, to overcome the cultural and
rather than an opportunity. There was also dis-
as Italy’s and, therefore, offered an attractive
linguistic barriers hampering trans-Pacific trade.
cussion of the political implications of greater
market opportunity for Japanese companies.
Ambassador Toshiro Suzuki of Japan said
trans-Pacific trade including the need for states
However, Mr Kojima felt, for trans-Pacific trade
that his country would shortly have FTAs with
to maintain a balance in their relations with the
to flourish it is necessary that there is political
all Pacific Alliance nations once its negotiations
USA and with China.
stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.
leon trade will require clarity of vision. The
Questions
and
comments
to
Japan seeks a stable, secure and peaceful Pacific
with Colombia were concluded. The keidanren
has set up a Pacific Alliance task force, and in
Plenary 3: The Trans-Pacific Opportunity:
region. Mr Kojima commended the Japan-
2014 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought 250
Perspectives from the Business Community
Colombia Economic Partnership Agreement
Japanese businessmen on his visits to Colombia,
This session was chaired by Bill Emmott, former
(EPA) and viewed it as a good framework for
Mexico and Chile. To fulfil its potential, he said,
editor, The Economist and an IISS Trustee. In his
increasing trade and investment flows. He
the Pacific Alliance has to overcome several
opening remarks Emmott emphasised the sig-
believed this would encourage Japanese firms
challenges including diversifying its production
nificance of the IISS inviting business leaders to
to invest in the region and also set up joint
base and increasing its manufacturing capacity.
speak at the Cartagena Dialogue. Relationships
ventures with Latin American firms in third
Japan is investing heavily in Latin America and
between nations are mediated not just by gov-
markets, especially Southeast Asia.
its involvement in Mexico’s automotive indus-
ernments but also through people-to-people
The second speaker, Omar Lodhi, Partner
try included the local sourcing of parts. The
and business-to-business interactions, he said.
and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj
Pacific Alliance should also integrate its value
Business plays an important role in the interac-
Group, drew attention to the growing signifi-
chain into the global supply chain, improve
tion between the Pacific Alliance countries and
cance of south-south trade and capital flows
infrastructure and logistics, harmonise regula-
the countries of the Asia-Pacific, with growing
and viewed the Pacific Alliance as an initiative
tions and provide greater support for its SMEs.
trade and investment relations.
that would strengthen such flows. He identified
Finally, the Alliance should raise productivity
Speaking first, Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman
three ‘drivers of change’ in Asia-Latin America
through investments in education, training and
of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation, focused
relations: demographic change in both regions;
technology. Japan was ready to play a greater
on three issues, namely, the importance of free
urbanisation; and the rise of a new middle class.
role in assisting in all these areas, the ambassa-
trade to economic development in the Asia-
While Asian investment in the Latin American
dor concluded.
Pacific region, in the context of the growing
region was still very low, he saw this rising,
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 5
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice
minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
INSURGENCY
Senen Bacani, Member, Government of
Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel
Dr Gino Costa, former minister of the
Interior, Peru
Gen (Retd) Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo,
Counsel Minister for Post-Conflict
Human Rights and Security, Colombia
especially with the new regulatory convergence
sion funds and outlined the potential benefits.
agreement at the peace talks in Havana on con-
in the region owing to regional blocs such as the
Policymakers should promote the benefits of
flict de-escalation measures that will allow for
Pacific Alliance. In fact the Pacific Alliance had
regional integration within the Pacific Alliance
demining work immediately. The Havana talks,
progressed further than ASEAN as far as finan-
to businesses, he insisted, as many business
he said, are not the result of a military stale-
cial integration and regulatory convergence was
leaders were unaware of the opportunities
mate; rather, they are the result of 15 years of
concerned.
offered by Pacific Alliance economic integration.
strengthening the military, police and justice
The third speaker, Katia Bouazza, Head,
He saw the assertion of the rule of law and the
system. The decision to negotiate rather than
Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC
freedom of markets and democratic governance
seek outright military victory was ethical, the
Bank USA, emphasised the relevance of the
as important attributes of the Pacific Alliance
general said. It is important to show that politics
globalisation and integration of financial mar-
that would reassure investors. He believed
can work for all Colombians, so there is no need
kets for policy makers, especially in emerging
events like the Cartagena Dialogue would play
to take up arms.
markets, in dealing with the challenges posed
an important role in increasing local and global
by cross border flows of capital. She said global
awareness regarding the Pacific Alliance.
Gen Naranjo recalled that the authorities
studied 37 negotiation models before embark-
banks like HSBC have opened up investment
In the discussion that followed participants
ing on its peace initiative, to avoid repeating
opportunities in Latin America to international
underscored the fact that the economic integra-
past failures. Planning for the post-conflict
investors and have also been active in taking
tion of the region had been made possible by
phase is already underway, he said, because
Latin American investors to attractive invest-
each of the governments pursuing sensible eco-
this is vital to securing peace. In Havana, funda-
ment destinations. Any investor seeks four
nomic policies. However, they emphasised the
mental agreements have been reached on rural
pre-conditions for taking a cross-border invest-
need for greater regulatory convergence. In his
and agricultural issues. Progress has been made
ment decision. Firstly, trade liberalisation and
intervention, Felippe Larrain Bascunan, former
on political participation and the controversial
the free flow of goods and services. Secondly,
finance minister of Chile, underscored the
topic of narcotics. The government insists that
transparent dispute settlement mechanisms.
importance of economic growth, policy trans-
FARC acknowledges its reliance on the drug
Thirdly, an initial level of protection to facilitate
parency and stability and democracy and the
trade and explicitly renounce it, otherwise nar-
growth of business. Fourthly, policy transpar-
rule of law to the success of the Pacific Alliance
cotics could become a threat to post-conflict
ency and stability. ‘No one likes uncertainty’,
economies.
stabilisation.
Plenary 4: Conflict Resolution and Rebuilding
for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia, recounted the
Chief Executive Officer, Grupo SURA, listed
Societies
steps that ended the three-decade long con-
the strengths of the Pacific Alliance economies
The session dwelt on the respective experi-
flict in Aceh that resulted in tens of thousands
and emphasised the relevance of financial ser-
ences of Asia and Latin America in ending
of deaths. GAM and the Free Aceh Movement
vices integration within the region for domestic
long-running internal conflicts and then under-
were a formidable military force but the 2004
and overseas investors. While the integration
pinning post-conflict stability. Gen (Retd)
tsunami changed the conflict dynamic entirely,
of regional stock markets was an important
Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel
he said, killing 200,000 people and causing so
step forward in this regard, he sought further
Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and
much devastation that GAM was prompted
liberalisation of policy with regard to pen-
Security, Colombia, began by announcing an
to negotiate. Peace talks were completed in
Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice minister
she emphasised.
The last speaker, David Bojanini García,
6
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APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
GOVERNANCE
CIVIL CONFLICT
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
six months. The key to this success lay in five
attributes: leadership, pragmatism, a forwardlooking mindset, reconciliation and patience.
President Yudhoyono’s leadership and his
insistence that a military solution would not
provide a sustainable end to the conflict was
vital; he changed society’s perception of what
constituted victory. Once negotiations began,
pragmatism and flexibility were essential to
making progress. Thus the Indonesian government agreed to demilitarisation of territory
and the deployment of international observers.
Equally important was the agreement of both
sides to face the future rather than dwelling
on past violations of human rights. All these
steps enabled reconciliation, by which enemies
became political partners, he concluded.
In contrast with the rapid resolution in
Aceh, the conflict involving the Moro Islamic
Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Defence Minister, Colombia
Liberation Front in the Philippines took 17
years of protracted negotiations. Senen Bacani,
text of El Salvador’s troubles, Dr Costa said.
security forces are now skilled in planning and
Member, Government of Philippines Peace
However he cautioned that the drug trade made
coordinating joint operations involving mul-
Negotiating Panel, spoke about a process that is
the FARC conflict more difficult to solve while
tiple agencies.
still potentially vulnerable. A confidence-build-
the Statute of Rome and the existence of the
Building a long-term sense of security,
ing programme has been put into effect and in
International Criminal Court made a political
Pinzón added, will take several years. The
2014 the government and MILF launched the
pact less easy to construct.
signing of a peace treaty would be just the first
Bangsamoro Development Plan to help sustain-
The following debate touched on demobilisa-
step toward peace and the public forces will be
able peace and development. Decomissioning is
tion questions, societal attitudes and the tension
charged with maintaining the security environ-
vital, Mr Bacani said. He identified four essen-
between populism and statecraft when address-
ment in order to achieve social and economic
tial elements for success in resolving conflicts:
ing conflict resolution. Lieutenant General
prosperity. He also highlighted the armed
leadership, trust, historical justice and support-
(Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, Senior Fellow, Delhi
forces’ involvement in the technical talks with
ive consensus. Whereas the points regarding
Policy Group praised the prudence of the
FARC to pave the way for the end of the conflict,
leadership and trust were largely in line with
Indonesian government in redefining its con-
despite their 50-year-long struggle against the
those offered earlier by Mr Djalal, Mr Bacani
cept of victory. Too often national ego gets in
guerrilla group.
argued that a commitment to look honestly at
the way of peace, he said.
Minister Pinzón expounded on the concept of ‘comprehensive security’ (seguridad
past crimes, to right wrongs and make recompense, was vital for peace. It was also vital, he
Gala Dinner and Special Address: Reflections
integral) – the combination of law enforcement
insisted, to have a national consensus in support
on the Trans-Pacific Challenge
and military tools with other state institutions
of conflict resolution.
Speaking at the Gala Dinner, Colombian
and services. He argued that the armed forces
Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno
are tasked with providing the basic security
Gino Costa, former minister of the Interior,
highlighted
counter-insurgency
guarantees for the state, but these need to be
Peru, argued that El Salvador’s experience of
success during the past 15 years. The country
followed by strong institutions alongside edu-
ending an internal conflict was more relevant
was able to strengthen the public security forces
cation, health and job opportunities.
for Colombia than Peru’s. In El Salvador there
thanks to a special tax aimed at expanding its
This comprehensive approach is needed, he
was no ready military solution to the conflict,
capabilities and to Plan Colombia, the aid pack-
said, to tackle the shifting security dynamics in
he said. The negotiation centred on how the
age promoted by the US. Thanks to these efforts,
Colombia. Hybrid threats operating through
guerrillas could be brought into the political
he said, approximately 90% of municipalities
diffuse networks will continue to pose chal-
mainstream and what price the state would
are now free of conflict.
lenges and require the attention of the armed
Returning to the Latin American context, Dr
Colombia’s
pay to achieve their demobilisation. Politics
The security forces in Colombia have devel-
forces. Hybrid groups, the minister added, are
has triumphed: two of the six presidents since
oped capacities for complex operations and
driven both by political and economic aims and
the peace was made have been from the ranks
were able to go from defensive to offensive
benefit from technological innovations, global
of former guerrillas. However, the post-conflict
operations that pushed the guerrillas to remote
capital flows and migration. He highlighted ter-
period has been very violent, with high levels of
regions of the country. Minister Pinzón added
rorism, cyber attacks and transnational criminal
crime, perhaps due to the failure to secure eco-
that security strategies such as Sword of Honour
groups linked to natural-resources exploitation,
nomic development.
and Green Heart were built on the capacity of
such as illegal mining and illegal fishing, as
Colombia’s explicit focus on planning for
the forces to adapt according to the shifting
key security challenges ahead. These complex
post-conflict stabilisation was wise in the con-
dynamics of the armed groups. The country’s
threats underscore the important role that the
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 7
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Dr Marty Natalegawa, former minister
of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia
FOREIGN POLICY
GEOPOLITICS
Lee Ark Boon, Singapore’s Deputy
Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and
Industry
Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minister
of Foreign Affairs
Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister
of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia
armed forces have to play in the future, as guar-
integration for Colombia. The country’s peace
zone of peace and cooperation. Central to this
antors of peace, development and prosperity.
process will enable the state to establish its pres-
success, he said, was the effort to separate the
The Colombian armed forces and police
ence in territory where currently it is weak, he
South Atlantic from the broader ocean in a
have adapted to these transnational and diffuse
said. That in turn will open rich territories for
political sense. The former minister reminded
networks of armed groups through a process
agricultural production, and Asia will be the
delegates that Mercosur was larger than the
of modernisation, said Pinzón. Its public forces
principal market for this output, creating pros-
Pacific Alliance and currently enjoyed higher
are now in a position to share their experiences
perity that will sustain peace.
levels of intra-bloc trade; that organisation
Dr
and UNASUR, moreover, are overtly political
of the military or police agencies from 70 coun-
Marty Natalegawa, former minister of Foreign
projects designed to establish a zone of peace
tries have undertaken training with Colombian
Affairs, Indonesia,
noted the expansion of
in which war is inconceivable. By contrast, he
security practitioners. This experience and the
ASEAN’s initiatives to build the security archi-
noted, the Pacific Alliance has no defence aspi-
growing links with the Asia–Pacific, he said,
tecture in the western Pacific in recent years, as
ration. Mr Amorim said Brazil is trying to create
reinforce the role of Colombia as a key regional
well as multilateral initiatives such as the East
a Defence Council of South America that would
and global actor.
Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. He
stimulate high-technology industry across the
also touched upon APEC, TPP and the Forum
continent and ensure that more of the military
Plenary 5: An Agenda for Trans-Pacific
for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation
equipment procured in Latin America would be
Cooperation
(FEALAC) as institutions that serve as a bridg-
produced there.
Opening the session, Mauricio Cárdenas
ing function to Latin America.
with other countries. A total of 24,000 members
Surveying
trans-Pacific
exchanges,
Returning to the theme of trans-Pacific
cooperation,
Lee Ark
Boon,
Singapore’s
Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public
Dr Natalegawa offered a a two-point agenda
Credit, Colombia, noted that his country’s
for cooperation, focused firstly on physical,
Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade
strong economic performance of recent years
institutional and people-to-people connectivity,
and Industry spoke about the importance of
was based on the achievement of a level of trust
and secondly on promoting a peaceful Pacific
boosting connectivity between governments,
among consumers, business and foreign inves-
Ocean. It is important to not let sensitivities get
business and people. He argued for a strong
tors. The minister noted that the Pacific Alliance
in the way of addressing this important subject
regulatory infrastructure that went beyond
was conceived at a time of high commodity
and confronting reality, he said. In building
FTAs, also embracing investment protection
prices, but now that the supercycle has passed
a new security architecture for the new cen-
and double-taxation agreements.
the true value of alliance has become apparent,
tury, he pointed to three objectives: improving
as it offers increased markets for the non-com-
strategic trust, managing territorial disputes
because of the internal dynamics in the par-
modity sectors.
peacefully and accommodating the rise of new
ticipant states, he said, but insisted that it was
powers.
beneficial to tackle trade and investment barri-
In addition, the Pacific Alliance helps
Trade
negotiations
are
often
difficult
Colombia and its partners internationally, he
Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minis-
ers, because the benefits are felt broadly. This
said, noting the support that Mexico and Chile
ter of Foreign Affairs and former minister of
refers in particular to SMEs, that otherwise lack
had offered his country in joining the OECD.
Defence, took up the theme of peace and secu-
the resources to do business across the Pacific
The focus on Asia also underscores the connec-
rity by suggesting that the Pacific could draw
Ocean. The deputy secretary concluded with
tions between peace, development and global
lessons from the South Atlantic by establishing a
a bold proposal: to think strategically by con-
8
|
APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
PANAMA
Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief
Executive, IISS
cluding an FTA between the Pacific Alliance
at the IISS Cartagena Dialogue. His inspiring
to national and regional prosperity. Panama is
and ASEAN, rather than focusing on bilateral
speech focused on three intertwined themes:
expected to see GDP growth of 6-7% annually
FTAs. A region-to-region FTA could have huge
good governance, regional and international
from 2016, fired by government investments,
benefits under rules of origin, he said, and
cooperation, and prosperity.
and is positioning itself as a passenger and
would allow companies in ASEAN and the
The president urged fellow world lead-
cargo hub. Initiatives include the expansion of
Pacific Alliance to access global value chains. It
ers and civil servants not to look at politics
the Panama Canal, the expansion of the interna-
could also be a stepping stone towards an Asia-
as a ‘business’ but as a way of serving soci-
tional airport, and the development of the South
Pacific FTA, he added.
ety and addressing issues affecting citizens.
Caribbean cruise route.
The ensuing discussion touched on the pos-
Strengthening democracy is, he argued, as cru-
Increasingly, the president noted, Asian
sibility that the Pacific Alliance could one day
cial as dealing with the challenge of organised
countries and companies are investing and
become a body embracing all of Latin America,
crime currently affecting many countries in
operating in Panama. China, the second larg-
as the European Union – which started as the
Latin America. State resources must be used to
est user of the Panama Canal, has invested
European Coal and Steel Community in 1951
improve life, he said. Leaders ought to lead by
in construction. Singapore sponsored the
– has done in Europe. There was also discus-
example and prove that the state is capable of
building of a technical school. South Korean
sion around whether there could be functional
caring for its people and the youth in particu-
technology can be found in local hospitals
integration between the Alliance on one hand
lar. In this way, it would be possible to break the
and the country has invested in energy and
and Mercosur and other regional bodies on
foundation of criminal groups.
mining. Japan is to finance and provide tech-
the other. Minister Cardenas stressed that
These considerations should be at the core
the Pacific Alliance is open to all states who
of interactions between the region and Asian
share the alliance’s outlook and values, but
countries, the president insisted. Priority should
These forms of cooperation no doubt foster
it was essential that they adhere to the stan-
be given to human development and continued
prosperity but ought to be accompanied by
dards already agreed and implemented. Celso
efforts to eliminate inequality and unemploy-
information exchanges such as in the context
Amorim argued that Mercosur had much
ment, and to ensure universal access to basic
of migration and border control, and by joint
better prospects of becoming the EU of Latin
services and education. This will consolidate
efforts to ensue that the international financial
America than Mercosur; he also warned that
and unify society, while also bolstering peace
system is not exploited for criminal or terroris-
it was important not to avoid dividing Latin
and making the environment less attractive to
tic purposes, the president said. He concluded
America between a pro-business, free-trading
transnational criminal networks. In this context,
his address by stressing the need to build trust
Pacific and a statist South Atlantic. This would
he lauded the Colombian peace process as a
among nations to foster cooperation against
put peace in jeopardy, he warned.
model worthy of emulation.
transnational challenges such as organised
Turning to the Pacific Alliance, President
crime, natural disasters and pandemics. In this
Concluding Keynote Address: President of
Varela noted that Panama is in the process
respect, the Cartagena Dialogue was a wel-
Panama, Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez
of accession. He promised cooperation with
come mechanism to promote the creation and
President Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez of
other regional powers on all fronts and cited
strengthening of bilateral and international ties,
Panama delivered the closing keynote address
the many initiatives undertaken to contribute
he averred.
IISS NEWS
nical support to improvement works in the
Panama City bay.
APRIL 2015 | 9
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
DRUGS TRADE
INSURGENCY
TRADE
Simultaneous Special Session I: Insurgencies, Drugs and Insecurity
The overarching theme was that both Asia
world; illegal mining and logging are also evi-
and Latin America are struggling to deal with
dent. Some armed groups in the north of the
the insurgents that rely on the drug trade and
country even operate their own drug-control
other forms of criminality, and have in some
policies. Although ethnic Chinese groups are
cases become full-time criminals. Across Latin
deeply involved in Myanmar’s drug-traffick-
America, organised crime groups are highly
ing, it would be a mistake to blame certain
adaptable and resilient. They have diversified
ethnic groups while ignoring the reality that
their business activities, which include drug
crime-enabled corruption reaches high into
production and smuggling but also extortion,
the state apparatus. Until recently, the gov-
illegal mining, contraband, counterfeiting and
ernment has focused on arresting addicts and
low-level traffickers but now it is considering
human- and arms-trafficking. Cartels are now
vertically integrated in all these criminal activities which, a few years ago, they controlled
Drug seizures from organised crime (Colombian
National Police)
a development-led approach that will involve
local communities and address the issue of
land rights, which goes to the heart of discon-
only tangentially.
tent, instability and criminality.
There is a relationship between the
flict that predates the end of the Cold War but
organisational level of crime, and security.
continues today. Assuming that the peace
The fragmentation of cartels in Mexico, as a
process reaches a successful conclusion, it will
nexus between insurgency and organised
result of government policies, has produced
have regional implications. One of the nega-
crime, as well as the transnational nature of
a more disorganised criminal structure that
tive likely outcomes is that it will intensify the
the threat. The UK, for instance, is providing
is in flux and features high levels of violence.
level of criminal activity.
strategic assistance to partners to improve the
Some
European
states
recognise
the
Elsewhere, violence is increasingly used for
The slide of insurgency towards criminal-
socio-economic environment, strengthen gov-
coercive reasons and the pattern of attacks has
ity is a global phenomenon. In Myanmar, there
ernance and institutions, build criminal justice
become more selective.
is evidence of close links between insurgents
systems and disrupt crime. Yet there is also a
Colombia’s conflict with the FARC is
and organised crime. The country is believed
responsibility in Western societies to work on
unique, because it is the only ideological con-
to be the second-largest opium producer in the
demand reduction.
Special Session II: Trans-Pacific Connections: Commodities, Trade and Investment
Trade has been the foundation of increased
2m tonnes per year shortfall in supply to
ity; inadequate infrastructure; and income
commercial ties between Latin America and
the global market by the end of this decade.
inequality.
Asia in recent years, but the cyclical downturn
Companies from China, Japan and Korea
With the right preconditions in place,
in commodity prices has revealed a structural
are all heavily involved. Chile, Peru and
Latin America will be able to diversify its
problem: Latin America is overdependent on
Mexico together could account for 40% of
export of goods and services to Asia, and in
commodity exports to Asia. The discussion
global copper output. In Peru and Mexico
particular to take advantage of the expected
addressed two principal themes: the impor-
there is a challenge for investors to ensure
growth in Asia’s middle class. This offers
tance of investing in mineral exploration to
that new projects are undertaken in a way
considerable opportunities for services, in
ensure sufficient capacity in the next decade;
that ensures the support of local communi-
particular tourism. For instance, the number
and the challenges of achieving diversifica-
ties. Partnership and development are key to
of Chinese tourists going abroad each year
tion, through a broader range of exports and
success.
is expected to double to 200m by 2020 and
the attraction of more foreign, especially
Asian, investment.
10
Diversification of exports from Latin
their appetites will become more sophisti-
America to Asia will depend partly on how
cated. Another growth area is agriculture, as
In Mexico, the government has embarked
ready Latin American states are to receive
improving security in Latin America makes
on an ambitious reform of the oil sector with
investment; currently, not all are. There is
it possible to cultivate undeveloped land; this
the aim of attracting the resources necessary
potentially an investment bonanza at hand:
could help to feed a growing Asia while also
to increase output by 1m-2m barrels per day.
up to half of inward investment to Latin
lifting large numbers of Latin Americans out
This has involved constitutional reform and
America could be of Asian origin within the
of poverty and unemployment. The further
political controversy, in order to establish a
next five years, and some investment could
development of the Pacific Alliance econo-
new environment characterised by sectoral
flow in the other direction too. Here the Pacific
mies will not only boost trade with Asia,
liberalisation, protection for investment
Alliance states seem particularly well-placed,
but also raise trade among members. Today,
and higher levels of transparency. In Peru,
because of their commitment to free markets,
only 10% of the Pacific Alliance’s trade is
meanwhile, the authorities have cut taxes
open competition and a rules-based system.
within the bloc but the alliance’s recogni-
in response to falling copper prices and are
Investment will contribute to easing three
tion that trade is important for development
seeking to attract still-higher levels of foreign
structural impediments on Latin American
should have a positive influence across the
investment in order to address an expected
economies: informality and low productiv-
continent.
|
APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
PACIFIC ALLIANCE
ORGANISED CRIME
CARTAGENA DIALOGUE
Special Session III: Organised Crime and the Informal Mining Sector
The session examined the links between crimi-
then, approximately half of China’s coal output
successful. Some Latin American countries,
nal groups and informal miners, an issue of
was informal. The activity prospered thanks
for instance, have established official institu-
growing concern for the mineral-producing
in part to corrupt local officials, especially in
tions to help small miners to become legal and
countries of the Pacific Alliance. The boom in
regions where coal mining represented a big
increase productivity while complying with
commodity prices during the 2000s boosted
portion of the economy. Criminal gangs have
environmental regulations. The guarantee of a
formal economies but also encouraged non-
also had involvement with the activity. But
minimum price for small miners was cited as
state armed groups, both guerrillas and
thanks to new laws, regulations and a cam-
a particularly successful incentive because it
organised criminals, to deepen their operations
paign by the national government, several
protects producers from variations in interna-
in mineral-rich areas. Participants highlighted
informal mines have been closed. The govern-
tional commodity markets.
how attractive the activity has become for
ment has offered training for small farmers
As Asia-Pacific countries are significant
inhabitants of rural areas, since mining is now
and set a nation-wide inspections programme
consumers of mineral supplies, the session
usually more profitable than agriculture.
on coal safety, enforcing technical standards,
analysed the scope for greater trans-Pacific
safety measures and promoting best practices.
cooperation. It was proposed that countries
In some parts of Colombia and Peru, armed
groups are now more likely to engage in infor-
Many international policies regarding
in both sides of the Pacific increase infor-
mal mining than drug trafficking, encouraged
informal mining were discussed. Efforts by
mation exchange to ensure that minerals
by state weakness. In Colombia, over 80% of
West African countries to apply common
sent to Asia are from legal producers. At the
mineral extraction is unlicensed. Illegal actors
regulations and tracking systems could serve
moment the monitoring of the supply chain
are able to conceal their involvement by tapping
as examples for the Pacific Alliance, as long as
is done occasionally by importers (mostly in
into trading companies, which then mix the ille-
these are carefully adapted to local realities.
Asia), on their own initiative. The exchange
gally-extracted minerals with the legal supplies.
On that front, speakers highlighted that there
of information between law enforcement
China is not only the main buyer of minerals
still is little exchange of ideas and best prac-
authorities and the establishment of a trans-
from the Pacific Alliance, but also has its own
tices between member countries of the alliance.
Pacific system to monitor mineral supplies
domestic problems with informality. Efforts to
Some incentives for small miners to seek
could help reduce informality and weaken
tackle the problem started in earnest in 1997. By
entry into the legal mining sector have been
organised crime.
Special Session IV: Financial Services Integration: Asian and Pacific Alliance Experiences
Speakers in this session discussed financial
go a long way to provide financing to SMEs,
services integration, considering four main
having been successfully exported as a model
opportunities: the acceleration of growth in the
from Japan to Peru, Cambodia and Vietnam.
four economies of Pacific Alliance states com-
The panel made clear that creating the
pared to other South American players; the
mechanisms to inject capital is only part of the
size of the Pacific Alliance market as a major
solution. The session also addressed the impor-
incentive in attracting capital; the appetite to
tance of harmonising taxation, as well as matters
diversify investment streams; and the aim to
of currency and liquidity. The Chiang Mai
Initiative was raised as a particularly successful
harmonise the taxation of capital flows and
currency exchanges.
While there was agreement on matters
IX Summit of the Pacific Alliance, Mexico, 2014
(Alianza Pacifico)
model of currency reserve fund. Its success is
attributable to the fact that participant countries
have a high level of trust and knowledge of each
of incentivising investment by reducing
tariffs and taxes on transactions, there was
of whether or not infrastructure should be a
other’s macroeconomic features. Members of
controversy about sources of investment in
large part of portfolios was heatedly debated.
the Pacific Alliance, moving towards financial
the Pacific Alliance countries. This discrepancy
In discussing diversification of income
integration, will need to consider that unlike
was based on what each speaker perceived
streams and business alliances, speakers con-
trade integration, financial integration is about
to be the immediate needs and best ways to
curred that in both regions SMEs are critical, far
sharing risks and promoting transparency in
deliver the economic and social goals of the
more than in Europe and the US. Integration
ways that enhance their relationship as well as
Pacific Alliance. Infrastructure was one topic of
there, they claimed, needs to revolve around
an understanding of the upside and downside
contention, with some in the panel maintain-
ensuring that lending mechanisms become far
of currency collaboration.
ing that it is critical to invest in infrastructure
more robust. The relative absence of suitable
The session also yielded a consensus on
to ensure that the states in the Pacific Alliance
capital markets, especially for new enterprises,
MILA (Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano),
can thrive long-term, while others referred to
and the perceived lack of support from the
namely that efforts are not as yet sufficient to
the need to balance risk in portfolios, infra-
state to small businesses, suggests that cre-
ensure financial integration, and that structural
structure being on the risky side of investment.
ative Asian models can be shared across the
issues will be best addressed in coordinated
Pension funds were brought up as a major ele-
two regions. For example, the panel discussed
micro-reforms which, in turn, will help deliver
ment in the integration agenda, so the matter
how Hometown Investment Trust Funds can
a broader Pacific Alliance framework.
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 11
IISS–ASIA
FULLERTON LECTURES
The Ukrainian Crisis: A Test for
Europe and the World
A Conversation with Sihasak
Phuangketkeow
Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian President
Hours after a ceasefire declaration with rebel forces on 9 December,
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko delivered an impassioned IISS
Fullerton Lecture demonstrating his determination to achieve the
Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary, Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs
‘Ukrainian dream’ of becoming a democratic European state. He described
the resilience of the Euromaidan protestors in November 2013, followed
On 16 December, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary of the
by what he saw as Russia’s betrayal of Ukraine through its annexation of
Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, participated in a conversation with Dr
Crimea.
Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia. The discussion focused on
Poroshenko expressed his intent to concurrently pursue both peace and
recent political developments in Thailand, and particularly on the back-
political reform through the ‘Ukraine 2020’ presidential programme, with
ground to and aftermath of the 22 May 2014 coup. The coup led to the
anti-corruption high on the agenda. He described a Europe that is out of
installation of a military junta led by army commander-in-chief General
balance and under threat, facing a choice between liberal democratic or
Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was subsequently appointed prime minister.
repressive authoritarian values. He warned that the international com-
Dr Huxley also discussed with Khun Sihasak the impact of the coup on
munity must not be deluded by the ‘comfortable lie’ that the civil war in
Thailand’s foreign relations, including the country’s links with the United
Ukraine is solely a domestic crisis, but rather acknowledge the uncomfort-
States and other Western countries. Following the conversation, Khun
able truth that Europe stands at the core of the conflict. Watch the lecture
Sihasak took questions from members of the audience. Watch the event
here.
on the IISS website.
China’s Political System and Its
Evolution
On 12 February, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member Eric
Li delivered a Fullerton Lecture on what he regarded as China’s ability to
surpass Western political systems. Li cited the arguments of three political
scientists who point towards political decay within Western liberal democracies, and juxtaposed these against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
ability to deliver reform. Li pointed to the reform programme launched at
the November 2013 Third Plenum, as well as Xi Jinping’s re-centralisation
of power and anti-corruption drive. As part of this move, he added, Xi had
established the Central Reform Commission to drive economic policy and
the Central National Security Commission to oversee both domestic and
international security policy. Li argued that the CCP may eventually succumb to ossification, but was young and robust enough to continue reform
for the next few decades. Watch the event on the IISS website.
12
|
APRIL 2015
Eric Li, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member
IISS NEWS
FULLERTON FORUM
Strengthening
Cooperation to
Enhance Regional
Security in Asia
IISS–ASIA
said that when the threat of ISIS had been curtailed, other rogue groups would emerge to
replace it, just as ISIS itself replaced al-Qaeda.
Another
issue
relevant
to
this
year’s
Shangri-La Dialogue concerned relations among
Asia’s great powers, said Dr Ng. For example,
on the sidelines of the 2014 APEC Summit the
United States and China announced bilateral
During his keynote address to the third
deals, and China joined the US-organised Rim of
Fullerton Forum, Singaporean Defence Minister
the Pacific (RIMPAC) Exercise for the first time.
Dr Ng Eng Hen discussed the threat of Islamic
Other important issues challenging regional
extremism in Asia following the emergence of
security included the stability of particular
the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). He
Asian countries such as Thailand and Myanmar,
suggested that this development should be seen
and transnational threats arising from natural
communication link between ASEAN Defence
as part of the same continuum precipitated by
disasters and cyber vulnerabilities. To manage
Ministerial Meeting (ADMM) members, and
the historic 11 September attacks on the United
these challenges, countries needed to improve
Vietnam had suggested a no first use of force
States in 2001. Speaking to 66 delegates from
multilateralism and focus on practical measures
agreement. After his address, Dr Ng responded
22 countries at this Sherpa Meeting for the next
to help tackle ‘hard security’ problems, said Dr
to questions from Fullerton Forum delegates.
Shangri-La Dialogue (29–31 May 2015), Dr Ng
Ng. Brunei, for example, had proposed a direct
Watch the address on the IISS website.
Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singaporean Defence Minister
EVENTS
EXPERTS
The Military Balance 2015 Launch
mindful of a defence spending trend that, overall, was still downward.
European defence spending was, ‘in 2014 cumulatively 8% lower, in real
terms, than in 2010.’ As in previous years, there was a marked contrast
with Asia where overall defence spending again increased – since 2010 by
more than a quarter in nominal terms, growing to more than US$340bn in
2014. In some cases, this spending is supporting a growth in advancedcapability platform procurements and defence-related research and
development. In 2014 spending increases in emerging economies more
than offset Western reductions; ‘overall, real global defence expenditure in
2014 rose by 1.7% after three years of reductions.’
Following the London launch, members of the Institute’s Defence
IISS experts talk to the press following the launch
and Military Analysis Programme (DMAP) travelled to Berlin on 23–24
February for meetings hosted by the Koerber Foundation and the German
The IISS launched the 2015 edition of The Military Balance, the annual
Defence Ministry to present insights from The Military Balance 2015. Newly
assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics, before
appointed DMAP Director Dr Bastian Giegerich was accompanied by
an international press audience on 11 February.
Brigadier Ben Barry (retd), Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Douglas
The ‘salient strategic reality of the year’, said IISS Director-General and
Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace. Two meetings at Koerber,
CEO Dr John Chipman, ‘was the re-emergence of conflict in Europe and
one with young leaders, the other with German government officials and
the ever complicating and widening nature of extreme Islamic terrorist
parliamentarians resulted in wide-ranging discussion of contemporary
groups’ activity in the Middle East and Africa.’
defence and security concerns. A similarly fruitful event was held with
While a revisionist Russia has challenged the European security order,
German Defence Ministry officials. The group, this time joined by James
the threat from extreme Islamic terrorists also strengthened during the
Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, travelled to Brussels on 24–25
year, and ‘the rise of ISIS and the flow of jihadists in and out of vari-
March to engage officials from NATO and the EU as well as government
ous Middle East theatres of war has become a major pre-occupation for
representatives and academics in a discussion of the 2015 book. Hosted by
European states.’ While coalition air operations might lead to tactical
the Egmont Institute and the Belgian Royal Higher Institute for Defence,
victories against ISIS, these alone cannot strategically defeat it. Complex
the IISS team explained global strategic trends analysed in the book and
security dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa meant that
assessed defence-capability developments in Europe, Russia, and China.
regional defence spending was already high. Growing insecurity and
The Military Balance 2015 is packed with defence facts and objective
conflict have contributed to a further acceleration. ‘In 2011, average real
analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends
defence spending growth in the Middle East and North Africa region was
outlined in the book. Specialist essays focus on: military space systems,
3.5%. In each year since, we estimate it has increased by an average of 10%.’
directed energy weapons, and hybrid warfare, while this year’s wall chart
Europe’s NATO members, confronted with an increasingly complex
carries analysis of Russia’s military modernisation process and selected
security environment on the continent and in their near-abroad, were
IISS NEWS
force dispositions. Watch the launch here.
APRIL 2015 | 13
EXPERTS
DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS
Countering Ebola in Sierra Leone:
The British Military Contribution
Meeting NATO’s Future Ambitions:
IISS Workshop
Unloading an RAF C17 in Sierra Leone during the UK’s response to combating Ebola
(MoD/Crown copyright)
Last year’s outbreak of Ebola in West Africa rapidly became a regional
Flags at half mast outside the NATO headquarters, January 2015 (NATO)
medical emergency. Part of the international response was the deployment
of a British inter-agency task force to assist the government of Sierra Leone
At the September 2014 Wales Summit, NATO leaders pledged to reverse
in countering the disease, as was discussed at an IISS event on 11 March.
the downward trend in defence spending and to provide the capabilities
The deployment included volunteer medical staff from the National
that will be needed to meet future challenges. They agreed on measures
Health Service, military medical staff, logisticians, communication special-
to boost military readiness, and on new forms of cooperation such as the
ists and engineers as well as Royal Marines and naval helicopters.
Framework Nations Concept.
Command and control was provided by the headquarters of the
On 17 March, in the last of a series of events sponsored by NATO, the
British Army’s 104 Logistic Support Brigade, commanded by Brigadier
UK Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, rep-
Steve McMahon. At Arundel House he described the establishment of
resentatives from the three sponsors, as well as diplomats, government
a Joint Inter-Agency Task Force conjoining British military personnel,
officials, military officers, academics and IISS staff gathered at Arundel
the Department for International Development and the Foreign and
House for an off-the-record seminar to consider the key factors influenc-
Commonwealth Office, with the participation of NGOs, the World Health
ing NATO’s future level of ambition. Keynote talks were given by Danish
Organization and the government and armed forces of Sierra Leone, as
General Knud Bartels, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, and
‘opening a new chapter in cross-government integrated operations’.
Lord George Robertson, former UK defence Secretary and NATO secre-
The urgency of the situation and need for a comprehensive approach
tary general.
compelled diverse actors to achieve a ‘tactical trinity of unity of command,
Delegates discussed a wide variety of topics including whether cur-
unity of purpose and unity of effort’. Clear political directives were trans-
rent levels of ambition were appropriate to deal with modern threats and
lated into sound command-and-control arrangements at all layers, thus
the ability of governments to generate the defence policies, capabilities
effectively integrating a wide range of capabilities, from logisticians and
and budgets that will allow them to put these commitments into practice.
engineers to analysts and medical staff. The infection was successfully con-
They also considered the prospects for reversing the decades-long trend
tained by the deployment of combined teams down to village level, the
of declining defence funding and improving cooperation between NATO
construction of six UK-funded treatment units to provide isolation and
states, as well as what new themes might be contained in NATO’s next
care, and the conduct of a large influence campaign to change behaviours.
Political Guidance.
THE
MILITARY
BALANCE
The annual assessment of
global military capabilities
and defence economics
BUY THE MILITARY BALANCE 2015
ONLINE:
www.iiss.org/publications/militarybalance
14
|
APRIL 2015
NEW FEATURES FOR 2015
New country analyses including China, Colombia,
France, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Ukraine and the
United Arab Emirates, as well as analysis of
regional defence and security developments such
as ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
New thematic analytical essays on hybrid warfare,
directed energy weapons and US space systems.
A new Military Balance Wall Chart, with a focus on
Russia’s armed forces.
New technical equipment-focused graphics,
including on the development of Russia’s Flanker
combat-aircraft variants, the US Navy’s Zumwaltclass destroyer and Israel’s Merkava IV main battle
tank.
Updated graphics feature on comparative defence
statistics, with a focus on defence economics,
defence industry and major land, sea and air
capabilities.
Updated national
capability summaries.
A new section
detailing ‘observed
equipment’ for
selected non-state
armed groups, including the Peshmerga in
northern Iraq, separatist forces in eastern
Ukraine and Boko
Haram in Nigeria,
among others.
A table of military
training exercises, arranged by region.
New maps on France’s realigned military presence in Africa, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and
AMISOM’s Operation Indian Ocean in Somalia.
IISS NEWS
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY
EXPERTS
The IISS Forum for Arctic Climate
Change and Security
On 18 March, the IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security held
a workshop at Arundel House on the ‘Benefits and Limitations of Arctic
Development: Arctic Peoples’ and Industry Views’.
Climate change, market dynamics and technological advances are currently shaping an economic agenda for the Arctic for the coming decades,
which in turn will drive geopolitical and military trends in the region.
An important aspect of economic development in the Arctic that is often
overlooked or under-emphasised is the position of the Arctic Peoples, who
have histories, identities, lifestyles and languages that are separate from
those of the Westphalian states in which they live. There is a diversity of
views between and within the Arctic Peoples about development in the
region, and the issues – political, social and economic – vary between dif-
The village of Siorapaluk, Greenland (US National Snow and Ice Data Center/Andy
Mahoney)
ferent parts of the Arctic. The complexity of these views is not always well
represented in discussions of Arctic affairs beyond the region.
industries. Workshop participants included London-based diplomats
The workshop was intended to bring a nuanced understanding of
from most of the Arctic nations, UK diplomats and MPs, several members
Arctic Peoples’ viewpoints on Arctic economic development to a wider
of the House of Lords Select Committee on the Arctic, academics, analysts
policy audience, and offer space for Arctic and industry representatives to
and industry leaders. The workshop centred around four overlapping and
engage on questions important to the socio-economic future of the region.
interconnected themes: economic growth, environmental stewardship,
Among the speakers were Athabaskans, Inuit and Sami from Alaska,
respecting the Arctic way of life and interaction and engagement between
Canada, Norway and Sweden, representing indigenous peoples’ civil-
industry and Arctic Peoples.
society, commercial and political organisations. Other speakers included
senior corporate officials from the fishing, engineering and oil and gas
EXPERTS
The workshop was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, Consulting Senior
Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy.
IISS–MIDDLE EAST
GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
The Geo-economics and
Geopolitics of Transnational
Organised Crime
On 1 February, a Global Perspectives Series discussion panel was organised
by IISS-Middle East following a three-day conference on organised crime.
Diplomats, subject experts and corporate members attended a ninetyminute session chaired by Sir John Jenkins, IISS-Middle East’s Executive
Director. Leading on the various topics covered were IISS experts Nigel
Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, Ben Barry,
Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for
Security and Development.
UN and National Police in Timor-Leste targeting human trafficking (UN/Martine
Perret)
Discussions covered a wide range of issues concerning the movement
and prosperity of transnational organised crime, the technology employed
ised crime on the MENA and the Saharan and East African regions,
in criminal activities and the movement of people and goods. Additional
including the increase in human trafficking there. Highlighted were the
topics included state-weakening factors and severe regional crises, with a
roles of failed states and civil strife in bringing criminal organisations and
focus on opportunities for crime organisations to benefit from the current
jihadist movements closer. The event concluded with a discussion of the
geopolitical status and further develop their income sources and stake-
cyber-crime challenge faced by countries and organisations, and the dif-
holder ties.
ficulties of rounding up perpetrators and legally persecuting them. Watch
The panel also gave details on the implications of transnational organ-
IISS NEWS
the event here.
APRIL 2015 | 15
NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT
NON-PROLIFERATION
Eliminating Chemical Weapons
SANCTIONS
EXPERTS
UN Sanctions Workshops
A chemical weapons destruction facility Ruwagha, Libya (OPCW)
The successful destruction of Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile last
year fanned hopes for universalising the Chemical Weapons Convention,
Iranian heavy-water production facility at Arak, south of Tehran (iStock/EdStock)
to which only six states are currently not party. Two of them are in the
Middle East, Egypt and Israel. Both are being asked if there is a compel-
As part of ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts
ling strategic rationale for remaining on the outside. On 15 January the
on Iran, the IISS held a workshop in Amman, Jordan on 11–12 February to
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme organised a meeting to
discuss the challenges of implementing sanctions against Iran and share
discuss this question and the status of efforts to eliminate chemical weap-
best practices for compliance. The workshop convened more than 50 gov-
ons featuring: Peter Sawczak, Head of the Government Relations and
ernment officials and industry representatives from six states in the region
Political Affairs Branch of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical
along with experts from the UN Panel, North America and the IISS. The
Weapons (OPCW), based in The Hague; Ambassador Shimon Stein, a
meeting was mainly devoted to UN sanctions and export-control meas-
former Israeli diplomat and Senior Research Fellow at the Tel Aviv-based
ures and included sessions on conventional arms transfers and the current
Institute for National Security Studies; and Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an Associate
negotiations, accompanied by an assessment of potential future sanctions
Fellow at Chatham House and a member of the board of the ACRONYM
developments. Participants also discussed unilateral sanctions imposed by
Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy.
the EU, the US and Canada, many of which have a secondary impact.
Upholding the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty
Kuala Lumpur Workshop
Victory Day parade, Pyongyang, North Korea 2013 (Stefan Krasowski)
On 25 February, the IISS also organised a workshop in Kuala Lumpur,
IAEA inspectors making an inventory of fuel assemblies on a training exercise (IAEA)
Malaysia entitled ‘Furthering the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
Agenda: Challenges and Expectations Relating to the UN Sanctions on
On 6 March the US State Department’s Assistant Secretary for International
North Korea’. The event was the latest in a series of meetings in support of
Security and Non-proliferation, Thomas Countryman, spoke at Arundel
the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea. With the assistance of the Institute
House. His remarks provided an optimistic assessment of the state of the
of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia (ISIS Malaysia), the work-
non-proliferation regime. Yet although Countryman ranked the Nuclear
shop brought together representatives from the Panel, Cambodia, China,
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the ‘most successful multilateral treaty
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, as
in the history of diplomacy’, he recognised that it faces numerous chal-
well as practitioners from the private sector in several of these countries. It
lenges ahead of an international Review Conference taking place in April
was designed to explain the Panel’s mandate, provide guidance on sanc-
and May. These included the lack of progress towards a WMD-free zone
tions implementation best practices and highlight North Korea’s evasion
in the Middle East and the pace of nuclear disarmament as viewed by
methods. The workshop also provided an opportunity for participants to
nuclear- and non-nuclear-weapon states. Read the transcript here.
discuss the difficulties involved in implementing sanctions.
16
|
APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
CHINA
EXPERTS
INDIA
PAKISTAN
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan’s Fight Against Terrorism
On 24 February, Pakistani Minister for the Interior and Narcotics Control
Chaudhry Nisar Ali discussed his country’s fight against terrorists,
describing them as those ‘who take up arms against the state [and] do not
subscribe to any law, religion or norms of civilisation’. He noted that the
ongoing Zarb-e-Azb anti-terrorist operation in the tribal areas bordering
Afghanistan had been stepped up, and that a new 20-point National Action
Plan against terrorism had been instituted with a full political consensus.
Moreover, the Twenty-First Amendment Act, 2015, had been passed to
provide the required constitutional validity for the establishment of new
Emergency workers clear rubble following a bomb blast in Peshawar, Pakistan
(iStock/EdStock)
military courts where terrorists would be tried. Nisar also explained that
as the minister responsible for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism policy, he
that a change of attitude was required within the government to allow for
had been able to ensure coordination and sharing of intelligence among
‘unity of implementation’. Finally, he urged the West to stop drawing a
Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies. He added that madrassa reform was
conclusive connection between Islam and terrorism, but to instead partici-
also taking place. Yet the minister also emphasised that Pakistan should be
pate in a unified international anti-terrorism effort. Watch the discussion
given more time to implement its new anti-terrorism policy, and warned
here.
Resumption of India–Pakistan
Talks: The Way Forward
India’s Policy Toward China:
Land Border Challenges and
Opportunities
Indian military trucks delivering supplies in Jammu & Kashmir (iStock/zanskar)
Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary of India, provided
a pessimistic perspective on the prospects for the renewal of official talks
between India and Pakistan. Speaking at Arundel House on 25 March,
he declared that India had initiated talks several times in the past, but
An Indian soldier near the border with China (Shankar S.)
that these discussions had been disrupted by Pakistani or Pakistanbased terrorists. He also suggested that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz
On 11 December 2014, senior Indian journalist Dr Manoj Joshi spoke at
Sharif might no longer be interested in pursuing talks, given his recent,
Arundel House on the complex nature of Sino-Indian relations. Joshi, also
strongly-worded statements on the Kashmir dispute during a visit to
a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New
the UN General Assembly. Ambassador Sibal emphasised that Indian
Delhi, discussed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policy objectives
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained keen on conducting outreach to
with regard to China, identifying trade as a prominent concern. He noted
Pakistan in order to increase regional stability and thereby facilitate the
that China had similar goals, as demonstrated by its recent pledge to invest
work of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
US$20billion in India by 2019. He then discussed the various obstacles to
He added, however, that if and when talks were resumed their format
Sino-Indian engagement, citing a September 2014 border confrontation as
would need to change before any significant ‘breakthrough’ regarding
a key reminder of ongoing tensions between the neighbouring countries.
relations would be possible.
Watch the event here.
Pakistan’s Security Perspectives
that the Zarb-e-Azb operation against militants in Pakistan was making
In a rare event of its kind, Army Chief of Pakistan General Raheel Sharif
Displaced Persons (TDPs) from the North Waziristan Agency. General
addressed a select private gathering at Arundel House on 16 January
Sharif then referred to Pakistan’s National Action Plan (NAP), describing
during his first official visit to the UK. According to a report issued by
it as a comprehensive long-term strategy to address extremism and terror-
government news agency the Associated Press of Pakistan, the general said
ism in the country.
IISS NEWS
good progress. He also discussed cooperation with the UK on security
matters, relations with Afghanistan and the resettlement of Temporarily
APRIL 2015 | 17
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
The Strategic Implications of
Organised Criminal Markets
EXPERTS
International Responses to Hybrid
Conflict in Fragile States
Unloading seized drugs from USS Carr during counter transnational organised crime
operations (US Navy/Corey Barker)
Military figures without insignia seen during the conflict in Ukraine (NATO)
A joint initiative by the Security and Development and Geo-economics and
Strategy programmes brought to the IISS-Middle East offices an interna-
NATO, like other national and international forces, has been adapting
tional conference aimed at strengthening understanding of transnational
to the challenges accompanying hybrid conflict – as exemplified by the
organised crime (TOC). Moreover, the event sought to explore the impli-
Ukrainian crisis and the rise of ISIS – in which non-state groups use
cations of TOC through the sharing of ideas and best practices among
a wide array of regular and irregular tactics. Dr Jamie Shea, Deputy
law-enforcement practitioners and members of the business and academic
Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO,
communities across countries and sectors.
presented his views at an off-the-record event on 24 February.
Participants in the conference, held from 30 January to 1 February,
The event highlighted the challenges that hybrid armed groups pose
looked at TOC’s implications for the corporate sector as well as for stability,
for the international community. There are calls for international actors
good governance and economic development in emerging and developing
to build rapid-intervention capabilities and at the same time to increase
regions. Through the use of case studies and real-life experience, attendees
the resilience of state armed forces against hybrid tactics. There are also
examined concrete examples and, more importantly, engaged in a pro-
concerns about the increasing involvement of non-state armed groups
ductive discussion on counter-measures to be implemented at the local,
with criminality, since this makes negotiations for a political solution to
national and international levels. The full conference report and agenda
conflicts more difficult.
are available here.
Asian Engagement in Africa:
Chinese and Japanese Experiences
in South Sudan
Asian engagement in the African continent over the past 15 years has
increased considerably both at the geo-strategic level, in terms of large
investment-driven infrastructure projects, and at lower levels through
events such as the opening of supermarket chains and the development of
small manufacturing.
China and Japan are playing a key role on the continent and South
Sudan provides an interesting case study of Asian involvement. The newest
Japan SDF Personnel in South Sudan (Government of Japan)
country in the world is, in spite of an ongoing conflict, ‘open for business’,
and while it will continue to maintain close ties with the United States it
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Akok Madut, PhD candi-
welcomes investors from all over the world. China and Japan, albeit by
date at SOAS and diplomat at the South Sudanese Embassy in London,
adopting different approaches, have both proved to be valuable partners.
and Jeremy Taylor, also a PhD candidate and Commonwealth Scholar at
These were the issues explored at a 16 March roundtable with Dr
Mitsuaki Furukawa, Chief Representative for the South Sudan Office of the
18
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APRIL 2015
SOAS with extensive experience working in post-conflict African states.
Watch the event here.
IISS NEWS
SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST ASIA
UKRAINE
MEMBERSHIP
An Update on the Ukraine Crisis:
The New Minsk Agreements and
Beyond
On 3 March, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap spoke
at a members’ event at Arundel House. He provided an update on the 12
February ‘Minsk 2’ agreement on the conflict in eastern Ukraine and discussed its implications for Ukraine, Russia and Western policy.
Following renewed violence in early 2015, the leaders of Ukraine,
OSCE monitoring of the withdrawal of heavy weapons, Ukraine, March 2015 (OCSE)
Russia, France and Germany met for over 16 hours in Minsk to finalise
a new 13-point agreement to address the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The
detailed in the plan would actually need to function. The Minsk agree-
stipulations included a ceasefire and significant political concessions from
ment transforms Ukraine into a de facto asymmetrical confederation. Not
the central government to the rebel-held areas.
only will that provide Russia a lever of instability in eastern Ukraine that
While acknowledging that this new agreement was an important
it can use to prevent Kiev’s Western integration, but this new arrangement
step forward, Charap called it ‘the end of the beginning, rather than the
will be hard to sustain within Ukraine given the disproportionate powers
beginning of the end’. The document put Ukrainian domestic political
accorded to two parts of the country.
compromise at the centre of the conflict-resolution process. It also laid out
a very clear sequence for the most controversial provisions.
Moreover, Charap noted that any Ukraine-only agreement is necessarily a temporary ceasefire in the broader conflict between Russia and the
In the short and medium terms, there were serious risks to the agree-
West; conflict would break out again, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as long as
ment’s implementation, including escalation on the ground. In the long
the core dispute over the regional order in Eastern Europe and Eurasia
term, if the document is fully implemented, the political compromise
remained unresolved.
Singapore’s Strategic Outlook and
Challenges
On 4 March, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley addressed
a members’ meeting at Arundel House regarding what he saw as some
of the most important and enduring elements of Singapore’s foreign
and security policies. He then assessed the potential major challenges to
Singapore’s external security over the coming decade. Dr Huxley pointed
in particular to the potential for more complicated relations with the citystate’s immediate neighbours, Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, he
Singapore Navy frigate RSS Stalwart ahead of two US vessels in the Pacific Ocean
(Nicolas C. Lopez/US Navy)
discussed the ongoing need to manage relations with the United States and
for new strategic thinking that might go some way towards matching the
China with dexterity. He also outlined the threat posed by domestic politi-
strategic flair displayed by Lee Kuan Yew, S. Rajaratanam and Goh Keng
cal developments to Singapore’s capacity to manage its external security
Swee in Singapore’s early years. Their leadership, he noted, was crucial to
environment effectively. Dr Huxley concluded by highlighting the need
the country’s survival as a small state in a turbulent region.
Women in Violent Extremist
Organisations
motivations and experiences of women in violent organisations such as the
Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). She explained the importance of
paying attention to the choices these women make and the reasons behind
them, and provided insight into the roles these women can play within
such organisations. Rachel Briggs OBE, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for
On 24 March, Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and
Strategic Dialogue, showed the room a video made by extremedialogue.
Development, chaired a discussion event on ‘Women in Violent Extremist
org, a Canadian activist enterprise that seeks to explore the experiences
Organisations’ at Arundel House. Two prominent women in the field
of those affected by extremist propaganda. The discussion that followed
spoke to an engaged audience and a lively Q&A followed; moreover, the
touched on a range of issues relating to the specific involvement of women
attendees had the opportunity to speak to the panel further during a drinks
in groups like ISIS, and highlighted the importance, especially in relation
reception after the event. Joana Cook, a PhD candidate at the War Studies
to counter-terrorism efforts, of listening to their stories. Watch the discus-
department at King’s College London, shared some of her research into the
sion at the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 19
RUSSIA–EURASIA
EXPERTS
UKRAINE
International Diplomacy and the Ukraine Crisis
General for Enlargement, European Commission. They discussed ongoing
efforts to address the Ukraine crisis and presented their perspectives on the
prospects for a diplomatic solution.
Lukin asserted that the central reasons for shortcomings in earlier
attempts were the deterioration of US–Russia relations and the perception of Russia’s subordinate status in the relationship over the past twenty
years.
Burt described a diplomatic deficit between the West and Russia, which
had worsened since the start of the crisis. He argued that the absence of
political will, a lack of responsiveness from the Obama administration and
domestic narratives of American and Russian exceptionalism hindered a
diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
Leigh identified two misguided narratives of EU involvement in
Nikishina, Ukraine, March 2015 (People in Need/EC Echo)
the crisis. Firstly, he explained that the EU Association Agreement with
Ukraine was designed as an alternative to EU membership and that the EU
On 15 December, Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and
was not open to Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. Secondly, he argued that
Eurasia, chaired a panel at the IISS–US on international diplomatic efforts
the Association Agreement did not force Ukraine to choose between Russia
in response to the Ukraine crisis. The speakers were experienced former
and the West. Leigh emphasised that the EU’s goals were the stabilisation,
diplomats and negotiators from Russia, the US and the EU: Vladimir
democratisation and modernisation of Ukraine, not the isolation of Russia.
Lukin, former Russian Ambassador to the US and Special Envoy of the
According to the panellists, a resolution to the crisis would require the
Russian President for the February 21st Negotiations on Ukraine; Richard
full implementation of the Minsk Accords, the adoption of some form of
Burt, Managing Director, McLarty Associates, former US Ambassador to
decentralisation in Ukraine, and Russian acceptance of Ukrainian sov-
Germany and Chief US Negotiator for the START Agreement; and Michael
ereignty and territorial integrity. This event can be watched on the IISS
Leigh, Senior Advisor, German Marshall Fund (GMF) and former Director-
website here.
PUBLICATIONS
New Publication:
Armed Conflict Survey 2015
The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a new annual publication that provides
yearly data on fatalities, refugees and internally displaced people for all
major armed conflicts, alongside in-depth analysis of their political, military and humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of the book covers the
key developments and context of more than 40 conflicts, including those
in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Syria
and Yemen.
The ACS features essays by some of the world’s leading authorities on
armed conflict, who write on subjects such as:
• the development of jihadism after 9/11;
• hybrid warfare;
• refugees and internally displaced people;
• criminality and conflict;
• the evolution of peacekeeping operations
The ACS also includes maps, infographics and multi-year data, as well
as the highly regarded IISS Chart of Conflict.
The book is edited by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats
and Political Risk at the IISS.
The Armed Conflict Survey will be launched 20 May 2015. It is available
The authors discuss the principal thematic and crossregional trends
that have emerged over the past year, complementing the granular
approach to each conflict at the core of the book.
20
|
APRIL 2015
for pre-order; copies will be dispatched after the launch. IISS members can
claim a 25% discount on the cover price.
See the website for details.
IISS NEWS
EXPERTS
PAKISTAN
GEO-ECONOMICS
IISS–US
Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System
preferential trade agreements. This topic was further developed by Dr
Krishna, who described many of the challenges in progressing beyond
the current global trading system and the inherent limitations to a strict
PTA approach at the expense of a truly global, WTO-focused agreement.
Dr Tellis, on the other hand, explained that trade imbalance, deficits and
other ‘side effects’ of the expansion of free trade present a wide range of
challenges for US foreign policy in particular, as the established power
adapting to a rising China.
The speakers also discussed the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP) negotiations and the agreement’s potential impact on the global
A meeting in Berlin with Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the heads of the
WTO, the World Bank, the IMF, the OECD and the ILO (OECD/Axel Schmidt)
political and economic landscape. A particular emphasis was placed on
the role of TPP in East Asia, where the US aspires to remain engaged in the
‘vibrant economic communities’ of the region, in light of growing Chinese
On 11 March, the IISS–US hosted a launch event for the Adelphi book Power
trading ties with the same states. During the audience question and answer
Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System. The event featured the vol-
session, the discussion focused on the role of emerging powers, like China
ume’s editor and Director of the Geo-Economics and Strategy Programme
and India, as well as the assessment of policy choices for the United States
at the IISS, Dr Sanjaya Baru, and two of the collection’s authors, Professor
in adjusting to the realities of the new world. The event was chaired by
of International Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University, Dr
IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell.
Pravin Krishna, and Senior Associate in the South Asia Program at the
Chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Editor, Adelphi
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr Ashley Tellis. Dr Baru
books at the IISS, this Adelphi book was also launched at Arundel House,
described the origin of the edited volume and outlined many of the key
London on 12 March. Speakers included Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for
themes in the book, including the rise of a multipolar trading system,
Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS and Philip Stephens, Associate Editor
and the subsequent impact on global trading patterns, including the
and chief political commentator, Financial Times. The discussion can be
specific phenomenon of an increasing number of bilateral and regional
viewed on the IISS website.
Pakistan 2015 and Beyond
both nations could create the necessary political space for restarting rela-
On 24 February, Dr Kiran Hassan discussed the state of democratisation
largely optimistic, her view of internal problems provided a stark contrast.
in Pakistan and potential implications of President Hussain’s rule for the
Well-known challenges, ranging from violent extremism to shortcomings
nation’s future. She explained that due to widespread corruption, a poor
in the country’s human-rights record clearly remain. The military leader-
human rights record and military involvement in politics, the Pakistani
ship continues its crackdowns on non-state actors in a selective manner,
population might soon ‘lose the appetite for democracy’. Unlike its neigh-
targeting only those elements that are hostile to Pakistani authorities
bour to the East, Dr Hassan argued, the Pakistani democratic process has
while turning a blind eye to more regime-friendly extremists. Moreover,
only deteriorated over the years.
minorities and women in the country continue to face oppression and dis-
On the other hand, 2015 presents Islamabad with an opportunity to
tions from ‘a clean slate’.
While Dr Hassan’s assessment of the country’s foreign policy was
crimination on social and institutional levels.
invigorate political ties with India and Afghanistan. Pakistani-Indian
Dr Hassan concluded by describing her optimism for Pakistan on
relations might improve due to mutually beneficial trade and be further
many fronts. She noted, however, that while the nation has real prospects
fuelled by India’s aspirations for a seat on the UN Security Council (which
for advancing its diplomacy in 2015, any gains would be unsustainable
requires easing tensions with its nuclear-armed neighbour). Pakistan’s
without effective counter-terrorism measures and progress on its other
rapport with Afghanistan may also improve because new leadership in
domestic challenges.
The Rise of the Islamic State, the
US Military Campaign, and the
Future of Iraq
rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the prospects for the
US military campaign. Far from being an aberration, Dodge asserts that
ISIS is a violent symptom of a set of systemic social and political problems
and that, as such, a rote military response will not be an effective long-term
solution. He discussed the structural failures of the post-2003 Iraqi state
that enabled ISIS to gain power, and criticised the use of proxies like the
Kurdish Peshmerga and primarily Shiite militias for worsening Sunni mar-
On 26 February, Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the
ginalisation. The event was chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce
Middle East, spoke at the IISS–US about the political climate that led to the
Campbell and can be viewed on the IISS website.
IISS NEWS
APRIL 2015 | 21
IISS–US
TERRORISM AND SECURITY
NON-PROLIFERATION
Responding to the Growing Threat
of Homegrown Terrorists in Europe
EXPERTS
rorism is a transfer of conflict from the home countries to their diaspora
communities in Europe, using Pakistanis in the United Kingdom and
Turks in Germany as contrasting examples. He discussed the challenge of
containing radicalisation in European prisons, where converts to Islam are
particularly vulnerable to extremist rhetoric, and where authorities face
an uphill battle in monitoring developments. Finally, Dr Rabasa identified
areas of progress in European counter-radicalisation programmes, along
with the challenges those programmes face going forward.
Dr Janes provided the German perspective, specifically pertaining to
the sizeable Turkish community in Germany. He compared the experience of diaspora communities in the United States to those in Germany,
framing the contrast as ‘immigration versus integration’, and noting
that this contrast determines how diaspora communities identify themselves. He pointed out that the communities in Europe typically have
stronger ties to their home countries than in the US, and that these ties
create a sense of sub-nationalism in the host countries. He argued that
An armed soldier in Brussels, January 2015 (Thierry Roge/AFP/Getty)
the next chapter of Europe’s history lacks a cohesive narrative or the
requisite leadership to write that narrative, and that radicalisation plays
On 27 January, IISS–US hosted Dr Angel M. Rabasa, Senior Political
into this problem. Dr Janes concluded by discussing the need for more
Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Dr Jackson Janes, President of the
role models in the Turkish community in Germany to counter radicalism
American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns
among youth.
Hopkins SAIS to address the growing threat of home-grown terrorism in
Europe.
Finally, the panellists responded to several questions from the audience, including how to properly define and identify success, how to deal
Dr Rabasa began the conversation with a high-level analysis of the
with an ideology that justifies and embraces murder, and ideas for broader
state of radicalism in Europe. He discussed the relationship between the
cooperation in combating radicalism. Bryce Campbell, IISS-US Managing
integration of Muslim communities in Europe and radicalisation, which
Director, served as the moderator for this discussion, and it can be viewed
share a weak correlation. He posited the argument that home-grown ter-
on the IISS website.
NPT Review Conference Preview
In anticipation of the upcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review
Conference in New York, the IISS–US held a discussion event featuring
Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS
Mark Fitzpatrick; Professor at Georgetown University and Foreign Affairs
Officer at the State Department, Dr Edward Ifft; and Managing Editor of
Survival and IISS Research Fellow, Dr Matthew Harries. The meeting took
place on 26 March at the IISS–US office in Washington.
Dr Ifft explained that his predictions for the conference were rather
pessimistic due to the unsuccessful track record of recent NPT Review
Conferences, rising political tensions worldwide and fundamental disagreements between nuclear and non-nuclear states. In particular, the
refusal of nuclear powers to eradicate their missile stockpiles is increas-
2010 Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons (NPT)
ingly irksome to non-nuclear states in light of a focus on non-proliferation,
rather than disarmament. In contrast, Fitzpatrick was more optimistic,
Finally, Dr Harries mentioned the difficulty in managing expectations
particularly in light of an expected deal between the P5+1 and Iran over
ahead of each subsequent Review Conference, based both on the histori-
Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In his opinion, a nuclear deal with Iran would
cal trajectory of the events and political developments. He then outlined
possibly revamp NPT negotiations on a global scale and possibly over-
potential fissures in and amongst both the nuclear and non-nuclear states
shadow the pallor over the failure to hold a conference in Helsinki to
based on recent events, as well as responses to the Austrian Pledge ema-
promote a Middle East WMD-Free Zone.
nating from the December humanitarian campaign conference in Vienna.
Fitzpatrick also outlined a set of five meaningful objectives should the
As such, Dr Harries warned against lofty promises in an outcome docu-
conference fail to produce a substantial outcome document as a means of
ment that go unimplemented or other outcomes that could undermine the
demonstrating progress towards the ultimate aims of the NPT despite a
purpose of the review conference process and the NPT as a whole. The
lack of universal agreement on a wider platform.
panellists concluded by taking several questions from the audience.
22
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APRIL 2015
IISS NEWS
PUBLICATIONS
New Adelphi Books
Partnership (TTIP) between the US and EU, and a 16-member Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP).
In this volume, leading commentators – including two former heads of
Adelphi 450
Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System
the WTO – examine the possible consequences of this shifting trade land-
Edited by Sanjaya Baru and Suvi Dogra
scape. Is globalisation in reverse, and have countries been retreating from
As economic powers from the developing world, particularly China, have
liberalisation since the world financial crisis of 2008–09? Are the ‘mega-
emerged in the past few decades, their weight has altered the balance in the
regional’ deals an existential threat to the WTO regime, or can they be used
global trading system. This has presented challenges in the World Trade
as building blocks towards wider multilateral agreement on a broad range
Organisation (WTO), where the Doha Round of multilateral negotiations
of issues, from industrial standards to intellectual property rights? And
has dragged on for more than a dozen years. Frustrated by this stalemate,
what does it all mean for the balance of geopolitical power between the
many countries have sought alternatives. Among these are ‘mega-regional’
developed and developing world?
trade agreements such as the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Adelphi 449
Spoiler Groups and UN Peacekeeping
Peter Nadin, Major General (retd) Patrick Cammaert, and Professor Vesselin
Popovski
UN peacekeepers today do far more than patrol a ceasefire line. In most
cases, there is no frontline, no truce, numerous parties and among them
some armed groups seeking to undermine a settlement. In short, the UN
is attempting to conduct peacekeeping in places where there is no peace to
keep. Unfortunately the UN has failed to adequately develop the instruments to identify armed groups, and then deal with the challenge they
pose. This book is a policy guide for UN missions. It analyses the nature of
non-permissive UN mission environments and argues that the UN should
think afresh about its approach to missions in these settings. By embracing
and developing three concepts – robust peacekeeping, political processes,
and the protection of civilians – the UN can arrive at a stabilisation doctrine.
Survival: Global Politics
and Strategy
Appointments
The IISS welcomes the
IISS–Middle East
In the April–May 2015
following;
Mahmood Abdulla
Sir John Jenkins
Research Assistant, Geo-
Bastian Giegerich
Executive Director,
Director of Defence and
IISS–Middle East
Military Analysis
The International Institute
for
Alice Hine
Assistant Editor
Krupa Patel
HR Administrator
Strategic
delighted
the
Studies
to
appointment
of
Sir
John Jenkins as Executive
programme
Imran Khan
Consultant, Geo-Economics
and Strategy Programme
Gilley
and
David
Kinsella explore the
potential
for
states
to coerce others into
action
change;
Freilich
on
climate
Charles
D.
explains
Israel’s inability to win
conclusive military victories; David A. Shlapak
Director of the IISS–Middle
East, based in Manama,
Yusuf Mubarak
calls for a more modest US military strategy;
Bahrain, as of 27 January
Arabic Editor; Media &
Steven Pifer, Egon Bahr, Götz Neuneck, Lukasz
2015. Read the Press Release.
Communications Officer,
IISS–Middle East
Katadah Zaman
Managing Director,
IISS–Middle East
IISS NEWS
is
announce
Nancy Turner
Editorial Manager
economics and Strategy
issue of Survival, Bruce
Kulesa, Mikhail Troitskiy, Matthew Kroenig,
Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro and Maria
Rost Rublee discuss the strategic dimensions of
the Ukraine crisis; and Donald Holbrook and
Vicken Cheterian delve into the relationship
between al-Qaeda and ISIS.
APRIL 2015 | 23
OBITUARY
Sir Robert Wade-Gery KCMG KCVO
(1929–2015)
It was with great sadness that the Institute learned of the
death on 16 February 2015 of Sir Robert Wade-Gery, a
scholar, diplomat and banker who served his country in
all three roles with great distinction. As important for the
IISS, however, was the vital part he played in the development of the Institute, first as a member for more than
50 years, having been introduced to it by his colleague Sir
Michael Palliser when they served together in the Foreign
Office’s then-nascent planning department, and later as
honorary treasurer from 1991–2005. It was in this latter
role that I came to know and value him as both a wise colleague and friend.
It was typical of Robert that when, as treasurer, he was
required to produce his CV for the Institute’s website, he
restricted it to only 14 lines, encompassing a life and career
of outstanding achievement and success. This diffidence
and modest brevity provided a telling illustration of the
character and personality of the man who had lived that
financial stability. But his importance to the Institute
life. A congratulatory double first in Mods and Greats from
extended far beyond his role as honorary treasurer. In
Oxford was followed by a fellowship of All Souls (where,
2002 when I became chairman of the executive commit-
with a few interruptions, he was to remain a fellow for a
tee, changes in UK charity law brought about a necessary
total of 29 years) and a brilliant Foreign Office career.
re-structuring of the Institute, a complex process whose
As a diplomat he was not only a close witness to some
smooth passage owed much to his diplomatic skill. It
of the major events and personalities of the second half of
also imposed new fiduciary responsibilities on the execu-
the twentieth century, from occupied Berlin to Suez, the
tive committee (now the board of trustees.) The fact that,
Tet offensive in Vietnam, the fall of Franco and the assas-
despite these demands and responsibilities, I was able to
sination of Indira Gandhi, but also played a key role in
sleep well at night was due in no small measure to his wise
advising and shaping British policy on issues as diverse
counsel. That this counsel was always offered with charm
as Trident, the Falklands War and the birth-pangs of the
and a disarming diffidence in no way deceived us into
initial Anglo-Irish agreement, serving under eight prime
misjudging its importance.
ministers, from Churchill to Thatcher. Retiring from the
When he eventually retired – to indulge in happy schol-
Foreign Office after five years as high commissioner to
arship at All Souls, or his new passion for the art of dry
India, he then moved seamlessly into banking as vice-
stone walling and his old passion for opera – he main-
chairman of Barclays Capital.
tained his membership of an Institute whose contribution
His knowledge of the financial world (he once served
to international discourse he had held in high regard
an interesting six months in the Bank of England learning
since his days as a very young diplomat. That regard was
about the City) and his skilled diplomacy were to prove
returned with interest by everyone at the IISS privileged to
invaluable to the Institute, steering it as it grew – and out-
know and work with him.
grew its accommodation – through occasionally choppy
During the 57 years of its existence the success and
waters to the comparatively secure haven, both in its bal-
reputation of the IISS has owed a great deal to the con-
ance sheet, and in Arundel House, which it occupies today.
tribution and dedication of a few great men. Sir Robert
At a time in the late 1990s when many UK charitable
24
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Wade-Gery was one of that number.
institutions saw their endowments evaporate on a plung-
Fleur de Villiers CMG
ing stock market, Robert’s advice secured our future and
Chairman of the IISS Trustees
APRIL 2015
For details of how to contact the IISS >
IISS NEWS