barcelata lorenzo

Intelligence:
Human, Artificial & Alien
Peter Slezak
School of History & Philosophy of Science
University of New South Wales
SETI:
Search for extra-terrestrial intelligence
Arecibo Radio Telescope
Wow!
Wow!
Voyager 2, 1977
Anthropomorphism
What the …?
Huh?
Earthlings
Acne?
Giants?
Music on Voyager
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Bach, Brandenburg Concerto No. 2 in F. First Movement,
Munich Bach Orchestra, Karl Richter, conductor. 4:40
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Java, court gamelan, "Kinds of Flowers," recorded by
Robert Brown. 4:43
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Senegal, percussion, recorded by Charles Duvelle. 2:08
•
Zaire, Pygmy girls' initiation song, recorded by Colin
Turnbull. 0:56
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Australia, Aborigine songs, "Morning Star" and "Devil
Bird," recorded by Sandra LeBrun Holmes. 1:26
Mexico, "El Cascabel," performed by Lorenzo Barcelata
and the Mariachi México. 3:14
"Johnny B. Goode," written and performed by Chuck
Berry. 2:38
New Guinea, men's house song, recorded by Robert
MacLennan. 1:20
Japan, shakuhachi, "Tsuru No Sugomori" ("Crane's
Nest,") performed by Goro Yamaguchi. 4:51
Sounds of Earth on Voyager
Music of The Spheres
Volcanoes, Earthquake
Thunder
Mud Pots
Wind, Rain, Surf
Crickets, Frogs
Birds, Hyena, E lephant
Chimpanzee
Wild Dog
Footsteps, Heartbeat,
Laughter
Fire, Speech
The First Tools
Tame Dog
Herding Sheep , Blacksmith, Sawing
Tractor, Riveter
Morse Code , Ships
Horse and Cart
Train
Tractor, Bus, Auto
F-111 Flyby, Satu rn 5 Lift-off
Kiss, Mother and Child
Life Signs, Pulsar
Greetings from Earth in …
Sumerian Arabic Urdu Italian Ila (Zambia) Akkadian
Romanian Hindi Nguni Nyanja Hittite French
Vietnamese Sotho Swedish Hebrew Burmese Sinhalese
Wu Ukrainian Aramaic Spanish Greek Korean Persian
English Indonesian Latin Armenian Serbian Portuguese
Kechua Japanese Polish Luganda Cantonese Dutch Punjabi
Nepali Amoy (Min dialect) Russian German Turkish Mandarin
Chinese Marathi Thai Bengali Welsh Gujarati Kannada
Telugu Oriya Hungarian Czech Rajasthani
Probability 1?
0
Probability 1
0
Drake Equation
• N = R* ･ fp ･ ne ･ fl ･ fi ･ fc ･ L
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N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic
emissions are detectable.
R* =The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent
life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for
life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases
detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
SETI: Probability 0 ?
• How many independent events n?
• What probabilities?
• Consider 100 events at 1/100 chance each
• p = 1/10
200
• If each atom in the universe were a planet,
it would not be enough …
Anthropomorphic Aliens
Green Kryptonite?
Intelligence?
Slime Mold
Slime Mold
Intelligence?
Cone of Increasing Diversity
SETK? Search for Extra-Terrestrial Kangaroos?
Humans
Kangaroos
Spiders
Bacteria
Marella
Anomalocaris
Laggania
Asheaia
Hallucigenia
Extinction by lottery
• Life is a copiously branching bush, continually pruned by
the grim reaper of extinction, not a ladder of predictable
progress.
– S.J. Gould Wonderful Life 1989, p. 35
Massive extinction
Cambrian Explosion of life forms
0
Probability 1?
0
Sum res cogitans.
Cogito ergo sum.
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René Descartes 1596 - 1650
Discourse on the Method ...
Treatise on Man
The Soul?
Dualism
J.C. Eccles
Cortical lobes
Eccles’ Conscious Self
Materialism
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Maturation
Retina
Aplysia
Babbage Engine
Originality?
Ada, Countess Lady Lovelace
Metropolis
Metropolis Maria
Minds & Machines
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The Cognitive Revolution
Entscheidungsproblem
Alan Turing 1912-1954
Turing Machine
Functionalism
Mind
Brains
Kryptonite
Silicon
Cloud
Spirit
Green Kryptonite?
Mind-Brain Reduction
The Cognitive Revolution
stimulus
response
Black Box Behaviourism
B.F. Skinner
Noam Chomsky, MIT
Generative Grammar
Abstract conditions
How does he do it?
σ→ ∞
(ς−χθ)2v-r
2πθ(λ−2ε)
σ→ 0
Velocity = v
Friction = f
Angle = a
Radius = r
Weight = w
dy =0
dx
Language: Innate or Learned?
• Early age
• Complexity of task
• No instruction
• No effort
• Universal time course, stages
• Independence of intelligence
• Degenerate evidence
Nim Chimpsky
Language?
Three-sign quotations
Apple me eat
Banana Nim eat
Banana me eat
Drink me Nim
Eat Nim eat
Four-sign quotations
Banana
Banana
Banana
Banana
Nim banana Nim
eat me Nim
me Nim me
me eat banana
Principia Mathematica
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Gödelian limitations to AI
Kurt Gödel
Bertrand Russell
The Cognitive Revolution
Allan Newell
Herbert Simon
Daniel Kahneman
Bounded Rationality
Game playing
Initial Position
Final Position
Game Tree
Bounded rationality
“This work has led to the sobering
conclusion that, in the face of uncertainty,
man may be an intellectual cripple, whose
intuitive judgments and decisions violate
many of the fundamental principles of
optimal behaviour. These intellectual
deficiencies underscore the need for
decision-aiding techniques ”.
Paul Slovic
Kahneman & Tversky
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Preferences & Decisions
Principle of invariance
.6
$100
$700
.2
A
B
.4
$200
.8
$0
Expected value for gamble A
(0.6 x $100) + (0.4 x $200) = $140
Expected value for gamble B
(0.2 x $700) + (0.8 x 0) =
$140
TV Weather bulletin
“The weather bureau predicts
50% chance of rain on Saturday and
50% chance of rain on Sunday…”
“I guess that means 100% chance of
rain on the weekend!”
Chance of a rainy weekend
Rainy
0.5
Rainy
0.5
Sunny
0.5
Sunny
0.5
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
Rainy
0.5
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
Sunny
0.5
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.75
Intuitive judgement
Visual Illusion - Framing
Café Wall Illusion
Checker Shadow Illusion
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Theory-laden perception
Rorschach Ink Blot
Theory-laden perception
Heuristics - Framing
Theory-laden perception
“People, not their eyes see. Cameras, and eye-balls, are blind.
… That Kepler and Tycho do, or do not, see the same thing
cannot be supported by reference to the states of their retinas,
optic nerves or visual cortices: there is more to seeing than
meets the eyeball.” Hanson, 1958, p. 7
Theory-laden perception
The “Hot Hand” Illusion
The “Hot Hand” Illusion
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The human mind is a pattern-seeking device, and it is strongly biased to
adopt the hypothesis that a causal factor is at work behind any notable
sequence of events.
The hot hand fallacy is ubiquitous in the world of finance, where it lends
unfounded credibility to the claims of fund managers who have been
successful for a few years in a row.
In the context of basketball, the hot hand fallacy may cause coaches to
overreact to fluke sequences of hits or misses by directing play toward a
"hot" player or by prematurely benching a "cold" player.
Is this Random?
Random walk?
‘Availability’ Bias
Even with the September 11 attacks included in
the count, the number of Americans killed by
international terrorism since the late 1960s (which
is when the State Department began counting) is
about the same as the number of Americans killed
over the same period by lightning, accidentcausing deer, or severe allergic reaction to
peanuts.
J. Mueller, A False Sense of Insecurity? Regulation, Fall 2004, pp. 42-46
Risk perception
1, 000,000
10,000
Estimated
number of
deaths
per year
heart disease
terrorism
10,00
0
pregnancy
stomach cancer
peanuts
flood
1,000
diabetes
tornado
lightning asthma
accident causing deer
100
10
Actual number of deaths per year
1
10
100
1,000
10,000 100,000
1, 000,000
Base Rates, Conditional Probability
1. A certain disease is known to have an incidence
in the population of 1/1000 (0.1%).
3. A clinical test for the disease is 95% accurate:
ie. If the disease is present, then test shows
positive 95% of the time. False positives = 5%.
4. On a test you have shown positive. How
worried should you be? Roughly what is the
percentage chance you have the disease?
Artificial Intelligence?
Rodney Brooks MIT
Neural Net
Turing Test
Bladerunner
Replicant test
It's too bad she won't live! But
then again, who does?