why? workflow for geodesign synthesis
Transcription
why? workflow for geodesign synthesis
GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? HOW SHOULD MULRANNY, IRELAND, (A VILLAGE OF 250 PEOPLE) GROW AND CHANGE IN THE 20 YEAR FUTURE? ARE THE KING COUNTY, WASHINGTON, (SEATTLE) SUSTAINABILITY REGULATIONS SUSTAINABLE? Carl Steinitz GEODESIGN IS SYSTEMS THINKING. GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS IS COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC: We are designing CHANGE in MANY SYSTEMS which are interacting in space and time GEODESIGN IS SERIOUS There are IMPORTANT PROBLEMS and—frequently— LITTLE TIME FOR DECISION AND ACTION PEOPLE/GROUPS HAVE DIFFERENT INTERESTS AND MAY DISAGREE ON PRIORITIES EACH seeks/NEEDS LEGITIMACY in/via design ? WHO “DESIGNS” AND HOW? ? WHO FINALLY DECIDES WHAT TO DO AND HOW? GEODESIGN METHODS do not scale and do not exactly-repeat THEY SHOULD FIT THE CONTEXT… the Redlands hypothesis THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE COLLABORATIVE GEODESIGN does NOT normally produce A FINAL PRODUCT IT IS LIKELY TO MOST USEFUL AT THE BEGINNING of thinking about and deciding on THE STRATEGY of what to do…. And for this, GEODESIGN SUPPORT NEEDS AN ORGANIZING FRAMEWORK AND A WORKFLOW AND DIVERSE EXAMPLES…. GEODESIGN IS COMPLEX: THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES: Multiple GEOGRAPHIC SCOPES: political boundaries, watersheds, etc. Complex CONTENT: SYSTEMS which vary by size, location, threat, etc. CHANGE REQUIREMENTS are many These are POLICIES AND PROJECTS….and responsibilities for them SEQUENCING AND TIMING MATTER…(.the chicken-egg problem) …leading to integrated and choreographed implementation Therefore geodesign support must be FLEXIBLE, ITERATIVE, ACCOUNTABLE AND FAST GEODESIGN IS DYNAMIC Change in a design is a relational synthesis in space and time of SETS of system Changes. THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO CHANGE A SYSTEM ….AND THE SEQUENCE MATTERS DESIGN(S) SHOULD BE RAPIDLY ASSESSED AND ITERATIVELY IMPROVED KNOWING THAT ANY CHANGE CHANGES ALL THE SYSTEMS and their evaluation assessments There are Change-VERSIONS based on design revisions and/or time-stages, and Change-ALTERNATIVES based on diverse Decision models, alternative scenarios, sensitivity assessments, etc. There will be many in any geodesign study. These must be compared, and (usually) one must be selected for action. Therefore, a primary aim of geodesign is to RAPIDLY MOVE from infinite possible combinations of policies and projects TOWARDS TECHNICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND POLITICALLY FEASIBLE DECISIONS THE GEODESIGN ENDGAME MUST SUPPORT INFORMED NEGOTIATION GEODESIGN IS COMMUNICATION Therefore, ALL ASPECTS OF GEODESIGN SUPPORT MUST BE EASILY LEARNED, EASILY USED, EASILY COMMUNICATED --and most importantly--THE “LANGUAGE” of GEODESIGN MUST BE EASILY UNDERSTOOD BY ALL INVOLVED GEODESIGN IS A COLLABORATIVE, SOCIAL-POLITICAL PROCESS OF DESIGN Carl Steinitz, Notes, Oct. 2015 GEODESIGN IS A COLLABORATION A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN A DIGITAL WORKFLOW FOR DYNAMIC GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E The GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS THE DECISION MODEL “drives” the methodology. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E DECISION MODELS vary by interest group and therefore require parallel geodesign studies. The DECISION MODEL priorities can be synchronized the entire geodesign workflow. WHY? WORKFLOW FORwithGEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E THE REPRESENTATION which are needed by the geodesign studyWHEN? are organized. WORKFLOW HY? HOW?MODELS WHAT? WHERE? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E THE PROCESSWHY? MODELS are defined by the most knowledgeable persons. WHEN? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E THE EVALUATION MODELS are defined for each system and mapped, and linked into the geodesign software. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E THE EVALUATION MODELWORKFLOW producers generate orFOR draw diagrams of ways toWHEN? improve their system. These are rank ordered. WHY? WORKFLOW GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DIAGRAMS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E DIAGRAMS are added byWORKFLOW any participant atWHAT? any FOR time, and all are linked into THE CHANGE MODEL. All are shared. WHY? WORKFLOW GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DIAGRAMS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL DIAGRAMS IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E Any of the several CHANGE MODELS or anyWHAT? combination can be used to generate the design. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DIAGRAMS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL DIAGRAMS IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E CERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY KNOWING THE RULES…? SERIAL “SKETCHING” SYSTEM-BASED DIAGRAMS RULE AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS AN HYPOTHESIS derived from the Redlands Experiment (C.S.) RULE AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS SYSTEM-BASED DIAGRAMS SERIAL “SKETCHING” GEODESIGN COLLABORATION Any of the several CHANGE MODELS or anyWHAT? combination can be used to generate the design. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CONSTRAINING CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E Any of the several CHANGE MODELS or anyWHAT? combination can be used to generate the design. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CONSTRAINING CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E Any of the several CHANGE MODELS or anyWHAT? combination can be used to generate the design. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K MIXED, TIME SERIES CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E Any DIAGRAM in the design can be assessed forFOR its IMPACTS and can dynamically update the EVALUATION MODELS. WHY? WORKFLOW GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS UPDATED F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL DIAGRAM IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E Any STAGE inWHY? the design WORKFLOW can be assessed forWHAT? its IMPACTS and can dynamically update the EVALUATION MODELS. WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS UPDATED F F E E E E D D B B A A C C K K CHANGE MODEL STAGE IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C C H S H S A C A C N A N A G L G L E E E E A completedWHY? design can be labeled as a VERSION and beGEODESIGN assessed for its IMPACTS and update the EVALUATION MODELS. WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODELS VERSION IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A CHANGE VERSION at any stage can be exported to larger IMPACT MODELS asSYNTHESIS needed. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODELS Ways of Designing IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A completedWHY? design (or any partial design) can considered for FEEDBACK or SCALE CHANGE, or labeled as a VERSION and saved. WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A completedWHY? CHANGE design (or any partialWHAT? design) can GEODESIGN considered for FEEDBACK. WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A completedWHY? CHANGE design (or any partialWHAT? design) can GEODESIGN considered for SCALE CHANGE. WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW HY? HOW? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS F E E D B A C K CHANGE MODEL IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E All ALTERNATIVES can be COMPARED in several ways. All ALTERNATIVES can beWORKFLOW subject to COMPARISON for DECISION in severalWHEN? ways. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR GEODESIGN CHANGE SYNTHESIS HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DECISION F E E D B A C K COMPARISON of VARIATIONS and ALTERNATIVE CHANGE MODELS COMPETITION CONGRUENCE FREQUENCY RECOMMENDATION NEGOTIATION IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E All ALTERNATIVES can beWORKFLOW subject to negotiation towardsGEODESIGN aWHERE? single CHANGEWHEN? design. WHY? WORKFLOW FOR CHANGE SYNTHESIS HY? HOW? WHAT? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DECISION F E E D B A C K COMPARISON of VARIATIONS and ALTERNATIVE CHANGE MODELS COMPETITION CONGRUENCE FREQUENCY RECOMMENDATION NEGOTIATION IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A DIGITAL WORKFLOW GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS WORKFLOW FOR HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DECISION F E E D B A C K COMPARISON of VARIATIONS and ALTERNATIVE CHANGE MODELS COMPETITION CONGRUENCE FREQUENCY RECOMMENDATION NEGOTIATION IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E ……………PAST………………………………………....PRESENT………………....……………….FUTURE………………………… A DIGITAL WORKFLOW GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS geodesignhub.com WORKFLOW FOR HY? HOW? WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? SYNCHRONIZE WITH DECISION MODEL REPRESENTATION MODELS PROCESS MODELS EVALUATION MODELS DECISION F E E D B A C K COMPARISON of VARIATIONS and ALTERNATIVE CHANGE MODELS COMPETITION CONGRUENCE FREQUENCY RECOMMENDATION NEGOTIATION IMPACT MODELS DECISION MODEL VERSIONS AND ALTERNATIVES C H A N G E S C A L E A DIGITAL WORKFLOW FOR DYNAMIC GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS Hrishi Ballal with Carl Steinitz OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” REPRESENTATION ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPARED FOR DECISION DECISION GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” EVALUATION VERSIONS DECISION GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” IMPACT CHANGE ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” OPEN COMMUNICATION HOW SHOULD MULRANNY IRELAND GROW AND CHANGE IN THE 20 YEAR FUTURE? A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN WHY WHY? ASSESSMENT WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES INTERVENTION DATA DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES HOW? A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN WHY WHY? ASSESSMENT WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES INTERVENTION DATA DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES HOW? THE STUDY AREA MULRANNY – 11 Townlands Dubhbeg, Cushlecka, Cuillaloughaun, Mulranny, Doughill, Claggan Mountain, Murrevagh, Bunahowna, Rosturk, Rosgaliv and Glenamadoo Develop a Promenade ‘a unique feature in Mayo’ €3million investment followed LOCAL CRAFTS AND A NEW TOURIST INFORMATION CENTRE Crafts A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN WHY WHY? ASSESSMENT WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES INTERVENTION DATA DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES HOW? PRE-WORKSHOP SET-UP BY ORGANIZERS FROM MULRANNEY AND UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DUBLIN EVALUATION MODELS CRITERIA IMPACT MODELS CROSS-SYSTEMS IMPACTS MODEL Design Mulranny village & landscape under 10 themes Themes 1. Renewable Energy 2. Water Management 3. Housing 4. Habitat Biodiversity Interest Group Change Teams Team 1: Environmentalists who can omit or alter any of the assumed requirements if they are at significant risk to the environment Team 2: Current and potential older residents: Assume population growth is made up of 2/3 older: 1/3 younger Team 3: Current and potential younger residents: Assume population growth is made up of 1/3 older: 2/3 younger 5. Enterprise (Tourism) 6. Enterprise (Farming) Team 4: Tourism Interest-led: Assume new housing is for 2/3 seasonal dwellings: 1/3 all year dwellings 7. Cultural Landscape 8. Environmental Protection Team 5: Agriculture Interest-led 9. Transport 10. Community Facilities Team 6: Other Enterprise Interest-led GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: EVALUATION MODELS GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: CROSS-SYSTEMS IMPACTS GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: CROSS-SYSTEMS IMPACTS GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: IMPACT MODELS GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: IMPACT MODELS GEODESIGNHUB SET-UP TEMPLATES: COSTS THE STUDY AREA PRE-WORKSHOP RECORDING OF LOCAL KNOWLEDGE BY MULRANNEY RESIDENTS THE WORKSHOP SCHEDULE A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN WHY WHY? ASSESSMENT WHAT? WHERE? WHEN? DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES INTERVENTION DATA DATA KNOWLEDGE VALUES HOW? INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW TEN SYSTEM-BASED TEAMS PREPARE EVALUATION MAPS TEN SYSTEM-BASED TEAMS PROPOSE POLICIES AND PROJECTS AS COLOR-CODED DIAGRAMS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS RAPIDLY ASSESSING PROPOSED POLICIES AND PROJECTS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS RAPIDLY ASSESSING PROPOSED POLICIES AND PROJECTS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS PROPOSING AND ADDING POLICIES AND PROJECTS THE IMPACTS OF A SINGLE DIAGRAM OR ANY SET CAN UPDATE ALL SYSTEMS’ EVALUATION MODELS ADDING NEW DIAGRAMS OF POLICIES AND PROJECTS FOR A DESIGN THE DIAGRAMS ARE RANK ORDERED AND NUMBERED IN PRIORITY FROM 1 TO n Day 2 09:00 – 09:30 Organize six Change Teams 09:30 – 12:00 Prepare Change Version 1 (including tea/coffee with team) 12:30 – 13:00 12:30 – 13:00 Assess impacts of Change Version 1 Lunch 13:00 – 14:00 Revise to create Change Version 2 14:00 – 14:30 Assess impacts of Change Version 2 14:30 – 14.45 Tea/Coffee 14:45 – 15:15 Concise Presentation of the six designs 15:15 – 17:30 Comparative Decision Assessments and discussion Workshop Ends FORMING SIX CHANGE-DESIGN TEAMS Mulranny Geodesign Workshop: Six Change teams Requirements for ALL TEAMS unless stated otherwise: Protect ‘Constraint’ areas – SACs, DHA, SPAs, Assume year round population of 650-700 people; Include for a new housing stock of 50 dwellings – maximum land area of 1.6ha Develop high quality year-round tourism Develop community and creative enterprise facilities to generate local employment Maintain high environmental quality Include for Environmental Research Centre Include for new football ground Include for larger numbers in Primary School Interest Group Change Teams Team 1: Environmentalists who can omit or alter any of the assumed requirements if they are at significant risk to the environment Team 2: Current and potential older residents: Assume population growth is made up of 2/3 older: 1/3 younger Team 3: Current and potential younger residents: Assume population growth is made up of 1/3 older: 2/3 younger Team 4: Tourism Interest-led: Assume new housing is for 2/3 seasonal dwellings: 1/3 all year dwellings Team 5: Agriculture Interest-led Team 6: Other Enterprise Interest-led SIX TEAMS MAKING CHANGE-DESIGNS THE IMPLIED PRIORITIES OF THE INITIAL WORKSHOP SET-UP WHEN THE DECISION MODEL IS ALTERED BY A TEAM TO REFLECT ITS OWN INTERESTS, ALL MAPS AND DIAGRAMS ARE SYNCHRONIZED IN PRIORITY FROM LEFT TO RIGHT EXPLORING AND SELECTING DIAGRAMS OF POLICIES AND PROJECTS SELECTING DIAGRAMS FOR A DESIGN MAKING A DESIGN BY SELECTING DIAGRAMS OF POLICIES AND PROJECTS ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF THE DESIGN MAKING ADDITIONAL CHANGE-DESIGN VERSIONS WITH SHARING AND NEGOTIATION COMPARING TWO VERSIONS OF THE TEAM’S DESIGN COMPARING TWO VERSIONS OF THE TEAM’S DESIGN COMPARING TWO VERSIONS OF THE TEAM’S DESIGN, FILTERING BY SYSTEM SELECTING THE BEST VERSION OF THE TEAM’S DESIGN PROPOSING A TIME-LINE FOR THE DESIGN’S PROJECTS AND POLICIES PROPOSING A TIME-LINE FOR THE DESIGN’S PROJECTS AND POLICIES COMMITTED BUDGET AND ANNUUAL COSTS PRESENTING SIX CHANGE DESIGNS COMPARING SIX CHANGE-DESIGNS COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS IN THEIR BEST VERSIONS BY DECISION MODEL, CHANGE MODEL (DESIGN), IMPACT SUMMARY, TOTAL COST ESTIMATE COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS IN THEIR BEST VERSIONS BY AN IMPACTS INDEX (EQUALLY WEIGHTED) OR OTHER COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS FOR POTENTIAL AGREEMENT BY COUNTING THE FREQUENCY BY WHICH EVERY CHOSEN DIAGRAM WAS SELECTED FOR A DESIGN COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS FOR POTENTIAL AGREEMENT BY COMBINING THE MOST FREQUENTLY CHOSEN DIAGRAMS INTO A NEW DESIGN COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS FOR POTENTIAL AGREEMENT BY COMBINING THE MOST FREQUENTLY CHOSEN DIAGRAMS INTO A NEW DESIGN COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS FOR POTENTIAL AGREEMENT BY COMBINING THE MOST FREQUENTLY CHOSEN DIAGRAMS INTO A NEW DESIGN COMPARING SIX TEAMS’ DESIGNS FOR POTENTIAL AGREEMENT BY COMBINING THE MOST FREQUENTLY CHOSEN DIAGRAMS INTO A NEW DESIGN ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF THE DESIGN BASED ON FREQUENCY OVERLAYING ALL CHOSEN DIAGRAMS AS A GRAPHIC MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY IF LEGEND COLORS ARE “MUDDIED” OVERLAYING ALL CHOSEN DIAGRAMS AS A GRAPHIC MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY IF LEGEND COLORS ARE “MUDDIED” NEGOTIATION TOWARDS ONE AGREED CHANGE-DESIGN BY APPLYING A SOCIOGRAM GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE PLAN AND TOURISM AND ENVIRONMENT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS IMPACTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS TIME-LINE WHICH INTERACTS “LIVE” WITH COSTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS COSTS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS COMMITTED BUDGET YEAR 1 2015 GENERAL AGREEMENT ON VILLAGE CHANGE PROJECTS ANNUAL EXPECTED EXPENDITURE YEAR 10 2025 GENERAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEW VILLAGE HOUSING ALL PROPOSED POLICIES AND PROJECTS GENERAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEW VILLAGE HOUSING ALL PROPOSED POLICIES AND PROJECTS Sector I PC n Facilitator Facilitator Facilitator Facilitator Futures Technical Expert Futures Futures Futures Technical Expert Local Stakeholder Technical Expert 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Technical Expert Technical Expert Futures Local Stakeholder Futures 1 1 1 1 1 Technical Expert Technical Expert Local Stakeholder Technical Expert Technical Expert Futures Technical Expert Technical Expert Futures Futures Technical Expert Futures Technical Expert Futures Futures Technical Expert Technical Expert 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 Yes x x x x x x x x x x 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ? 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Mulrann MCC y Name Description Organisation Orla Murphy Carl Steinitz Hrishi Billal Tess Canfield Mathew Carolan Robert Coyne Saskia Eland Nuala Ginnelly Cheryl Browne Noelle Angley Sean Carolan Mary Turbidy Architect Landscape Planner Engineer Landscape Architect Guide Civil Engineer Guide / Artist Bank Clerk Artist Architect Farmer Ecologist UCD Harvard GSD UCL [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MCC Futures Mulranny Tourism Gift of Hands MCC Environmental Group Turbidy Associates [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Carmel Austin Pat McHale Martin Hanley Mary O Boyle Mary Callaghan Bernadette Cunningham Mary Laheen Padraig Doherty Alison Harvey Karen Foley Helen Walker Sophia Meeres Deirdre Cunnningham Gerry Walsh Maureen Mulloy Linda Maher Michael Hughes Miki ? Mary Joyce Carol Loftus Alan Dilucia Neil Mc Cabe GIS Technician Engineer Farmer Social Worker Retired Chef MCC MCC [email protected] [email protected] Futures Mulranny Tidy Towns [email protected] [email protected] Senior Planner Architect/Lecturer Builder Planner/Heritage Council Head School of Landscape Architecture Retired Social Worker UCD Landscape Lecturer Heritage Officer Archaeologist Retired Civil Servant PhD candidate BE policy Fisheries Officer Post Grad Student Retired Social Worker School Secretary Planner Green Plan© MCC UCD Docon Heritage Couuncil UCD Gift of Hands UCD MCC Mayo Co Co Tidy Towns UCD Futures Chair UCD Futures Green Plan MCC Green Plan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] UCD Other Enterpri Transp Enterpris se Commu ort/Ser e (Agricult nity / vice/Pa (Tourism Housi ure & Care rking/T & ng HNV Facilitie rails/Pa Creativit Farming s ths y) ) Environ mental Water Cultural Protect manag Habitat Renew Landsca ion ement Biodive able pe and (incl (incl rsity Energy “Image” Coastal Sewag )/Safet e) y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 1 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 7 6 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ARE KING COUNTY, WASHINGTON’S SUSTAINABILITY REGULATIONS SUSTAINABLE? UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Tim Nyerges, Hrishi Ballal, Carl Steinitz et al May 6 - 7, 2015 Systems which drive change Demographic/social change Climate change/rainfall Energy use Systems Vulnerable to change King County WA Critical Areas Surface Water Groundwater Forestry Agriculture Systems Attractive for change Urban low density development Urban high density development Commercial/Industrial development Infrastructure development Transportation development A GEODESIGN WORKSHOP ON DYNAMIC DIGITAL SYNTHESIS Seattle THE SCOPE OF THE WORKSHOP STUDY UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Tim Nyerges, Hrishi Ballal, Carl Steinitz et al April 6 - 7, 2015 Systems which drive change Demographic/social change Climate change/rainfall Energy use Systems Vulnerable to change King County WA Critical Areas Surface Water Groundwater Forestry Agriculture Systems Attractive for change Urban low density development Urban high density development Commercial/Industrial development Infrastructure development Transportation development A GEODESIGN WORKSHOP ON DYNAMIC DIGITAL SYNTHESIS Conservation and Development for +20 and +40 years Study area assumed POPULATION INCREASE By +20 years = +200,000 people By +40 years = +420,000 people Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES a) relaxed growth management statutes/policies b) maintaining the current growth management statutes/policies c) enhancing the growth management statutes/policies Team 4 Team 5 Team 6 CONSERVATION PRIORITIES a) relaxed growth management statutes/policies b) maintaining the current growth management statutes/policies c) enhancing the growth management statutes/policies All saved VERSIONS and ALTERNATIVES can be rapidly COMPARED. All saved VERSIONS and ALTERNATIVES can be rapidly COMPARED for their IMPACTS. All saved VERSIONS and final ALTERNATIVES can be COMPARED by their component DIAGRAMS 1 DEV-RELAX +40 +40 years DIAGRAMS 2 DEV-MAINTAIN 3 DEV-ENHANCE 4 ENV-RELAX 5 ENV-MAINTAIN 6 ENV-ENHANCE Negotiation towards AGREEMENT O A SOCIOGRAM FOR ASSESSMENT OF NEGOTIATION PROSPECTS Negotiation towards AGREEMENT TEAMS 2 AND 6 +20 years TEAMS 1, 3, 4, AND 5 + 40 years +20 years + 40 years The existing land use in 2015 and final agreed CHANGE design for +40 years Impacts of the final agreed CHANGE design for +40 years The final agreed CHANGE design updates the EVALUATION MODELS The evolution of the CHANGE design of TEAM 1 +20 +20 +40 +20 NEGOTIATION OF TEAMS 1, 3, 4, AND 5 +20 +40 AGREEMENT 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, AND 6 +40 +40 +20 LAND USE +40 YEARS GEODESIGN SYNTHESIS IS COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC: We are designing CHANGE in MANY SYSTEMS which are interacting in space and time GEODESIGN IS SERIOUS There are IMPORTANT PROBLEMS and—frequently— LITTLE TIME FOR DECISION AND ACTION PEOPLE/GROUPS HAVE DIFFERENT INTERESTS AND MAY DISAGREE ON PRIORITIES EACH seeks/NEEDS LEGITIMACY in/via design ? WHO “DESIGNS” AND HOW? ? WHO FINALLY DECIDES WHAT TO DO AND HOW? GEODESIGN METHODS do not scale and do not exactly-repeat THEY SHOULD FIT THE CONTEXT… the Redlands hypothesis THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE COLLABORATIVE GEODESIGN does NOT normally produce A FINAL PRODUCT IT IS LIKELY TO MOST USEFUL AT THE BEGINNING of thinking about and deciding on THE STRATEGY of what to do…. And for this, GEODESIGN SUPPORT NEEDS AN ORGANIZING FRAMEWORK AND A WORKFLOW AND DIVERSE EXAMPLES…. GEODESIGN IS COMPLEX: THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES: Multiple GEOGRAPHIC SCOPES: political boundaries, watersheds, etc. Complex CONTENT: SYSTEMS which vary by size, location, threat, etc. CHANGE REQUIREMENTS are many These are POLICIES AND PROJECTS….and responsibilities for them SEQUENCING AND TIMING MATTER…(.the chicken-egg problem) …leading to integrated and choreographed implementation Therefore geodesign support must be FLEXIBLE, ITERATIVE, ACCOUNTABLE AND FAST GEODESIGN IS DYNAMIC Change in a design is a relational synthesis in space and time of SETS of system Changes. THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO CHANGE A SYSTEM ….AND THE SEQUENCE MATTERS DESIGN(S) SHOULD BE RAPIDLY ASSESSED AND ITERATIVELY IMPROVED KNOWING THAT ANY CHANGE CHANGES ALL THE SYSTEMS and their evaluation assessments There are Change-VERSIONS based on design revisions and/or time-stages, and Change-ALTERNATIVES based on diverse Decision models, alternative scenarios, sensitivity assessments, etc. There will be many in any geodesign study. These must be compared, and (usually) one must be selected for action. Therefore, a primary aim of geodesign is to RAPIDLY MOVE from infinite possible combinations of policies and projects TOWARDS TECHNICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND POLITICALLY FEASIBLE DECISIONS THE GEODESIGN ENDGAME MUST SUPPORT INFORMED NEGOTIATION GEODESIGN IS COMMUNICATION Therefore, ALL ASPECTS OF GEODESIGN SUPPORT MUST BE EASILY LEARNED, EASILY USED, EASILY COMMUNICATED --and most importantly--THE “LANGUAGE” of GEODESIGN MUST BE EASILY UNDERSTOOD BY ALL INVOLVED GEODESIGN IS A COLLABORATIVE, SOCIAL-POLITICAL PROCESS OF DESIGN Carl Steinitz, Notes for Salzburg, Oct. 2015 A FRAMEWORK FOR GEODESIGN GEODESIGN IS A COLLABORATION A FRAMEWORK IS NEVER LINEAR IN APPLICATION DOUBLING SAVANNAH, GEORGIA, 2015 – 2050, AND CLIMATE CHANGE UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA Workshop Chatham County, Georgia, USA January 26 – 28, 2015 Subsystems which drive change Industry and Tourism Demographic/social change Climate change, hurricanes Vulnerable to change Climate Ecology/Nature Surface Water Groundwater Historic/Cultural Visual Attractive for change Agriculture/Forestry Housing Development Commercial/Industrial development Transportation development The Five Interest Groups 2015 – 2030 - 2050 Wormsloe State Park and Historic Site D – Developers C – Climate Change E – Environmentalists P – Planners W - Wormsloe State Park The Challenge: Can we come to one agreed design? The Changes Working assumptions Expanding the port doubles industry The resident population doubles Tourism-related commerce quadruples Climate change: sea level rise + repeat of record hurricane The Changes Working assumptions Savannah: 900mm sea level rise projection Participants Sarah Ross, Director Center for Research & Education Wormsloe Paul Pressly, Director of Ossabaw Foundation Lupita McClenning Director of Planning, Coastal Regional Commission of GA Jesse Wuest, Assistant Manager, Wormsloe Brian Orland, Professor, Landscape Architecture, Penn State University, Institute of Energy and Environment Andrew Bailey, student, College of Environment and Design, UGA Matt Hauer, Faculty, Demographer, Carl Vinson Institute of Government, UGA Jamie Mitchem, Faculty, Climate University of North Georgia) Mariana Alfonso, Student, Integrative Conservation Ph.D. Program, UGA Doug Pardue, Professor, Landscape Architect, UGA Alfie Vick, Faculty, Landscape Architect, College of Environment and Design, UGA Marguerite Madden, Professor, Director of the Center for Geospatial Research, Geography, UGA Sudanshu Panda, Faculty, Environmental Science and GIS, University of North Georgia J.P Smith, Faculty, Ecologist, UGA Lana Call, Corporate System Analyst Dean Hardy, Faculty, Ecologist, Center for Integrative Conservation Research, UGA Hunter Key, GIS Manager, Coastal Regional Commission of GA Brian Meyer, Faculty, Geologist, Georgia State University Emily Hunt, student, College of Environment and Design, UGA Tommy Jordan, Faculty, Geographer, UGA James Nolan, Faculty and Local Government Project Manager, Eduardo Rendon, student, College of Environment and Design, UGA Jon Calabria, Faculty, Landscape Architect, College of Environment and Design, UGA Information Technology Outreach Services, Carl Vinson Institute of Government, UGA Greg Muse, student, College of Environment and Design, UGA Compare: Design, Decision Model, Impacts Summary, Cost Negotiation MAJOR AGREED PROJECTS 2015 - 2030 MAJOR AGREED PROJECTS 2015 – 2030 REQUIRED COMMITTED BUDGET AND EXPECTED ANNUAL EXPENDITURES Existing Conditions 2015 Recommended Plan 2050 Extras for expansion A BASIS FOR COMMUNICATION HOW? THE CHANGE MODELS TEMPLATE …………..1:100……………….………..…1:5,000………...1:25,000………1:250,000………...….…,.……..1:1,000,000……….. ASSESSMENT INTERVENTION CONSTANTS REQUIREMENTS and their options R1………….R2……..….R3…………R4….………Rn…………. HISTORY PAST EVALUATIONS PROCESSES REPRESENTATIONS PRESENT FUTURE A BASIS FOR COMMUNICATION SHARED KNOWLEDGE OF THE SUBJECT SHARED ASSUMPTIONS SHARED LANGUAGE ASSESSMENT INTERVENTION CONSTANTS SHARED ASSUMPTIONS REQUIREMENTS and their options R1………….R2……..….R3…………R4….………Rn…………. HISTORY EVALUATIONS PROCESSES REPRESENTATIONS SHARED LANGUAGE PAST PRESENT SHARED KNOWLEDGE OF THE SUBJECT FUTURE CERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY KNOWING THE RULES…? SERIAL “SKETCHING” SYSTEM-BASED DIAGRAMS RULE AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS AN HYPOTHESIS derived from the Redlands Experiment (C.S.) RULE AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS SYSTEM-BASED DIAGRAMS SERIAL “SKETCHING” GEODESIGN COLLABORATION Fast and flexible….negotiation….U WA COLLABORATION REQUIRES: A FRAMEWORK FOR COLLABORATION A BASIS FOR COMMUNICATION SHARED KNOWLEDGE OF THE SUBJECT SHARED ASSUMPTIONS SHARED LANGUAGE based on Norbert Wiener, Cybernetics, 1948 A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR” GEODESIGN TEAM ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS OPEN COMMUNICATION A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal COMPETITION MODE PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS CLOSED COMMUNICATION OPEN COMMUNICATION A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS OPEN COMMUNICATION A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT REPRESENTATION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” PROCESS EVALUATION GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS OPEN COMMUNICATION A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT REPRESENTATION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” PROJECT ALTERNATIVES DECISION GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” PROCESS EVALUATION VERSIONS DECISION GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” IMPACT CHANGE GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS OPEN COMMUNICATION A Geodesign Workflow for Change Models Hrishikesh Ballal OPEN COLLABORATION MODE PROJECT PROJECT SYSTEM MANAGEMENT “ADMINISTRATOR(S)” PROJECT REPRESENTATION ALTERNATIVES PROCESS COMPARED FOR DECISION DECISION GEODESIGN PROJECT “CONDUCTOR(S)” EVALUATION VERSIONS DECISION GEODESIGN TEAM “COORDINATORS” IMPACT CHANGE GEODESIGN TEAM “PARTICIPANTS” ONE DESIGNER TEAM IN ONE LOCATION TEAM IN MANY LOCATIONS TEAM IN DIVERSE SETTINGS OPEN COMMUNICATION